| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -6.2% | - |
| 2024 |
|---|
| 3.1% |
Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -6.2% in Q4 2025 but delivered 11.9% cumulative returns since inception eighteen months ago. The fund benefited from AI winners like AppLovin, which grew 10x since purchase, and ASML, which appreciated from €600 to €900 as the market recognized its semiconductor monopoly during the AI boom. However, strong performance was offset by weakness in Hemnet and PAR Technology, which both halved peak-to-trough despite no fundamental business impairment. The manager used market pessimism to initiate positions in Adobe at 15x earnings, Baltic Classifieds Group, Timee, and Floor & Decor Holdings. PAR Technology appears positioned for a watershed moment with potential McDonald's partnership validation. Floor & Decor represents a category killer in flooring retail with 500-store expansion potential, currently depressed by housing market weakness but positioned for recovery when mortgage rates normalize. The manager sees an opportunity-rich environment and remains optimistic about portfolio positioning despite recent narrative-driven market bifurcation between AI winners and losers.
The fund targets high-quality businesses trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value, with patience to wait for market recognition while businesses compound value over time.
The manager sees an opportunity-rich environment and is the most excited about the portfolio positioning in a while, having found numerous stocks meeting investment criteria with many more under analysis.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ADBE, APP, ASML, EYE, FICO, FND, GOOGL, HD, LOW, NKE, PRTG, SBUX, SNPS, UBER | AI, growth, Housing, Restaurants, semiconductors, software, technology, value |
ASML NA PAR ADBE BCG LN 215A JP FND |
The fund has benefited from AI winners like AppLovin, which applies machine learning to improve ad algorithms with 72% revenue growth and 89% EBITDA growth.… |
| Oct 10 2025 | 2025 Q3 | ASML NA, GOOG, PAR, SNPS | AI, Chips, Lithography, semiconductors, software |
ASML NA GOOGL US SNPS US PAR UN |
The fund discusses opportunities in semiconductors, highlighting ASMLs monopoly position in lithography amid AI-driven chip demand and cyclical mispricing. Alphabet is analyzed as an AI… |
| Jul 14 2025 | 2025 Q2 | APG, CRM, HEM SS, UNH | catalysts, Concentration, risk management, tariffs, volatility |
HEM APG CRM UNH |
The commentary frames volatility as both a risk and an opportunity within a concentrated, long-short portfolio. Management discusses tariff-driven dislocations, defensive positioning, and redeployment into… |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | HEM SS, IBKR, PAR, PINS | - | - | - |
| Jan 10 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AER, APP, MTCH, PAR, PINS | - | - | - |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | 700 HK, APP, MAX, PDD | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
Home ImprovementFloor & Decor represents an attractive long-term opportunity following the Home Depot disruption model in flooring retail. The company offers superior inventory selection and lower prices, taking market share consistently. Current margins are depressed but should recover as store base builds out and same-store sales normalize from post-COVID and interest rate headwinds. |
Retail Flooring Market Share Margins Cyclical | |
MortgageFalling interest rates and federal support for housing should drive a continued rebound in mortgage origination volumes, which should benefit mortgage originators and credit bureaus. FICO launched its new Direct Licensing Program for mortgage lending, which provides greater flexibility to monetize its intellectual property. |
Mortgage Origination Housing Credit Scoring Lending Real Estate | |
RestaurantsSteak n Shake achieved industry-leading 10.2% same-store sales growth in 2025, marking the best performance since 1992. The company is transforming through premium quality ingredients including 100% beef tallow fries, cane sugar Coca-Cola, and plans for 100% grass-fed Steakburgers. The franchise partner program has converted 179 company-operated units to single-unit franchise partnerships, with franchise partners generating about 70% of store-level cash flows. |
Steak n Shake Franchise Quality Growth Transformation | |
SemiconductorsMACOM Technology Solutions rose nearly +40% as the company experienced broad-based demand, similar to many semiconductor companies in 2025. The team exited Astera Labs following industry conference presentations that suggested emerging competitive risks and concerns over single customer concentration, while initiating a position in Credo Technology for AI-connectivity exposure. |
Demand Competition Connectivity Customer Concentration | |
Software |
||
| 2025 Q3 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
SemiconductorsMACOM Technology Solutions rose nearly +40% as the company experienced broad-based demand, similar to many semiconductor companies in 2025. The team exited Astera Labs following industry conference presentations that suggested emerging competitive risks and concerns over single customer concentration, while initiating a position in Credo Technology for AI-connectivity exposure. |
Demand Competition Connectivity Customer Concentration | |
Software |
||
| 2025 Q2 |
VolatilityManager emphasizes volatility as a structural feature of markets, noting that rare events occur far more frequently than expected. April's volatility event validated their convexity approach, with systematic monetization during stress periods. December saw compressed volatility with VIX hitting year lows, creating buying opportunities despite short-term costs. |
VIX Implied Volatility Realized Volatility Convexity Options |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | SNPS US | Synopsys Inc | Information Technology | Electronic Design Automation | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Design, Eda, growth, Margins, semiconductors, Software, valuation | Login |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | PAR UN | PAR Technology Corp | Information Technology | Enterprise Software | Bull | NYSE | acquisition, ARR, growth, McDonald's, Restaurant, SaaS, Software, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | HEM | Hemnet Group AB | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | growth, Portals, Pricing, Property, Subscriptions | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | APG | APi Group Corporation | Industrials | Specialty Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | consolidation, Inspections, Margins, Recurring, services | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | CRM | Salesforce, Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Automation, Data, SaaS, Software | Login |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | Health Care | Managed Health Care | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | healthcare, Insurance, Medicare, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | ASML NA | ASML Holding N.V. | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | AI, CapEx, Euv, Monopoly, semiconductors | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | PAR | PAR Technology Corporation | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Catalysts, platform, POS, Restauranttech | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | ADBE | Adobe Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Retention, Software, valuation, Workflows | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | BCG LN | Baltic Classifieds Group PLC | Communication Services | Internet Services & Infrastructure | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Classifieds, Insiders, Monopoly, Networkeffects, rerating | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | 215A JP | Timee, Inc. | Industrials | Human Resource & Employment Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | growth, Japan, Labor, Marketplaces, Networkeffects | Login |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | FND | Floor & Decor Holdings Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Cyclicality, Housing, Operatingleverage, Procustomers, Specialtyretail | Login |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | ASML NA | ASML Holding NV | Information Technology | Semiconductor Equipment | Bull | Euronext Stock Exchange | AI, Euv, growth, Lithography, Monopoly, semiconductors, technology, valuation | Login |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Fund Letters | George Hadjia | GOOGL US | Alphabet Inc | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AI, cloud, Hardware, innovation, monetization, Search, technology | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ADBE | By looking at their Rnancials, FactSet, PayPal, Adobe, and Salesforce seem to be doing Rne. The market, however, is reading subdued revenue growth as a sign of increased competition on their core oSerings. These companies' outlooks look more di'cult than their past. |
| APP | AppLovin provides tools that help mobile app developers, particularly mobile game developers, market and monetize their products. We exited AppLovin after significant price appreciation. |
| ASML | ASML, TSMC, and Arista Networks are key players in the AI build out supply chain. |
| EYE | Notable positive contributions from the Fund's short book in December include National Vision Holdings, Nike, and Starbucks. |
| FICO | Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), a data and analytics company focused on predicting consumer behavior, contributed to performance. FICO reported strong quarterly financial results and solid fiscal 2026 guidance, which calls for 28% EPS growth. The company also launched its new Direct Licensing Program for mortgage lending, which provides greater flexibility to monetize its intellectual property. |
| FND | Floor & Decor (FND) is a business I've wanted to own shares in for some time. They are the leading warehouse-style flooring store with higher in-stock inventory selection and lower prices than scaled competitors, and have been taking market share for years if not decades. In my opinion, they are following the Home Depot model to disrupt a profitable subcategory of home improvement. I still believe the current purchase price is not obviously cheap on near-term earnings, but the purchase price does reflect an attractive valuation on long-term margins. The company's current EBIT margins are about 30% below their long-term pre-COVID levels, and I believe EBIT margins should continue to scale towards the low-to-mid-teens as the company builds out its store base. Current sales per store are depressed by a post-COVID hangover and higher interest rates which have depressed existing home sales, a key catalyst for renovation activity. Higher sales per store will lead directly to higher store-level margins, which flow nicely through to EBIT margins. I believe, with a more favorable existing home sales macro backdrop, that sales can grow at double digits with significant flow-through to the bottom line. It would not surprise me to look a couple years out and see the company generating $6.5B of sales at 7.0% net margins, which would mean the company is trading at 16x that admittedly uncertain (due to macro uncertainty) future earnings with nearly a decade of future store growth and comp growth. I see the company generating nearly $12 earnings per share 10 years from now, when it's store growth plan should be essentially complete. |
| GOOGL | In the third quarter, Google, Kairos Power, and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a major collaboration centered on a novel power purchase agreement. Google followed this announcement with another significant step forward. On October 27, Google and NextEra Energy announced plans to restart the Duane Arnold Energy Center. |
| HD | Conversely, our biggest detractors this quarter were DR Horton (DHI), Lennar Corp (LEN), Home Depot (HD). |
| LOW | Stocks like Lowe's and Home Depot have suffered from the housing slowdown. |
| NKE | Notable positive contributions from the Fund's short book in December include National Vision Holdings, Nike, and Starbucks. |
| PRTG | PAR remains a quality business, but it is temporarily out of favour. It currently sits in a blind spot for many investors: it is a small cap, unprofitable software company working through the overhang of a prior guidance reset. The investment case for PAR has strengthened materially in recent months, driven by what we view as a watershed moment for the restaurant technology industry with PAR working towards signing a contract with a mega tier-1 which we believe to be McDonald's. |
| SBUX | Starbucks was sold during the quarter as it was not tracking to plan. |
| SNPS | Key performance contributors in the month of December included AppLovin, Synopsys, and PAR Technology Corporation. |
| UBER | UBER was a detractor in the fourth quarter following its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, which delivered strong operating performance but was met with a muted market reaction. Gross Bookings and adjusted EBITDA both came in near the high end of management's guidance, driven by accelerating demand across both Mobility and Delivery. However, investor focus shifted to commentary around reduced margin expansion as the company steps up investment in growth initiatives, including autonomous vehicle partnerships, platform innovation, and commerce expansion. |
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