| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Troy Asset Management's Q1 2026 report describes a volatile quarter driven by the Iran war, AI disruption, and inflation concerns. The firm reduced gold holdings from 14% to 10% after strong gains, citing investment bank enthusiasm as a warning signal. AI continues dominating markets with sharp moves, particularly affecting SaaS companies like Salesforce and data firms. Hyperscalers are doubling AI investments with Alphabet proposing to increase spending from $91bn to $180bn. The managers maintain positions in Alphabet and Microsoft despite elevated valuations, believing both can remain resilient through multiple competitive advantages. A new 10% yen position via Japanese government bonds reflects dollar weakness expectations. The Iran conflict represents the fourth major supply shock this decade, raising stagflation risks as central banks struggle with inflation targets. Kevin Warsh's Fed appointment may reduce independence concerns. Upcoming mega-IPOs from OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX could increase market volatility. The strategy maintains low duration and emphasizes real assets while seeking asymmetric opportunities amid heightened uncertainty.
Multi-asset strategy focused on capital protection and long-term value increase through selective positioning across global markets, emphasizing real assets and quality growth businesses while managing inflation and geopolitical risks.
Expect markets to remain febrile as short-term returns are highly sensitive to heightened military action or diplomatic solution. These may provide opportunities to add to holdings but must be vigilant in stock selection. Looking for asymmetric return profiles underpinned by supportive valuations whilst retaining preference for sustainable and consistently profitable growth. Always best to be proactive rather than reactive in circumstances like these.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29 2026 | 2026 Q1 | CBRE, CRM, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, SAP, TRI, WKL | AI, energy, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Japan, Multi-Asset, technology |
GOOGL MSFT |
Troy reduced gold exposure after strong gains while maintaining AI positions in Alphabet and Microsoft despite elevated valuations. New yen position hedges dollar weakness expectations. Iran war creates fourth supply shock this decade, raising stagflation risks. Upcoming mega-IPOs and AI disruption increase volatility. Strategy emphasizes real assets and quality growth while managing inflation and geopolitical risks through selective positioning. |
| Feb 9 2026 | 2025 Q4 | V | AI, Dollar, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Multi-Asset, Valuations | - | Troy delivered strong 2025 returns while maintaining defensive positioning amid AI bubble concerns and dollar weakness. Gold outperformed as central banks diversified away from US Treasuries for first time. Reduced dollar exposure significantly following geopolitical tensions. High liquidity and short duration positioning provides flexibility to capitalize on expected volatility from elevated valuations and structural inflation risks. |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AMD, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL | AI, diversification, gold, risk, Speculation, technology, Valuations, value | - | Troy draws parallels between today's AI boom and 2000 dotcom bubble, with market concentration at century highs and speculative behavior returning. Reduced big tech holdings despite quality, focusing on overlooked defensive sectors. Gold bull market continues on structural support despite trimming at highs. Valuation extremes suggest cycle peak approaching. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | HUBB | Currency, Dollar, Grid, Multi-Asset, tariffs, Trade, Valuations, volatility | HUBB | Troy Multi-Asset opportunistically deployed capital during April's tariff-induced market selloff, increasing equity allocation to 40% while reducing dollar exposure amid de-dollarisation trends. New holding Hubbell benefits from massive grid infrastructure needs. Despite market recovery to new highs, managers remain cautious on valuations and expect continued volatility from trade policy uncertainty. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Bonds, Dollar, inflation, Recession, regime change, tariffs, Trade Policy, Valuations | - | Lyon sees Trump's tariffs as destructive trade policy triggering recession and undermining dollar hegemony. Extreme 37x CAPE valuations offer little protection while rising yields challenge equity markets. Portfolio defensively positioned with reduced dollar exposure and shorter duration, but selectively adding to equities anticipating better opportunities from coming recession and valuation reset. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, COST, DEO, GOOGL, HEINY, META, MSFT, NESN.SW, NVDA, TSLA, UL, V, VRSN | AI, Bubbles, gold, infrastructure, Multi-Asset, rates, technology, Valuations | - | Troy Multi-Asset delivered 6.6% returns led by gold and quality equities, while maintaining defensive positioning amid concerning US market concentration and elevated valuations. The fund avoids AI semiconductor volatility but owns established cloud providers Microsoft and Alphabet positioned for infrastructure demand. Modest 30% equity exposure focuses on overlooked fundamentals-driven opportunities while benefiting from higher bond yields. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AXP, DEO, GOOGL, HEINY, MSFT, NESN.SW, NVDA, UL, V | AI, Elections, gold, inflation, Multi-Asset, Politics, Uk, US | - | Troy Multi-Asset delivered 4% first-half returns through defensive positioning with 12% gold allocation and inflation-protected securities. Manager warns of unsustainable US debt dynamics and narrow AI-driven rally showing late-cycle characteristics. UK political stability under Labour may reduce Brexit discount but risks higher inflation from expansionary policies. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BDX, DGE.L, GOOGL, HEIA.AS, MSFT, NESN.SW, UL, V | Central Banks, diversification, fiscal policy, gold, inflation, Multi-Asset | - | Troy defends gold holdings as essential portfolio insurance amid new all-time highs. Chinese demand, central bank buying, and US fiscal unsustainability with $1tn quarterly debt increases drive performance. Rising geopolitical tensions and Fed's impossible position between inflation and debt service create perfect storm for gold. Firm maintains core allocation as uncorrelated diversifier. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | BDX, DEO, GOOGL, HEIA.AS, MSFT, NESN.SW, PG, UL, V | Government Spending, inflation, Multi-Asset, Onshoring, rates, Recession, Valuations | HEIA.AS | Troy's Multi-Asset Strategy maintains defensive 25% equity allocation, viewing markets as priced for perfection with significant downside risks from either higher rates or earnings disappointment. Strategy returned 3% in 2023 while holding substantial bonds and gold. Managers expect persistent inflation from unprecedented government spending and remain ready to deploy capital when valuations become attractive. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | BDX, DEO, GOOGL, MSFT, NESN.SW, PG, UL, V | Bonds, credit, inflation, interest rates, Multi-Asset, Recession | - | Troy Multi-Asset delivered 6.6% returns while positioning for structurally higher rates and inflation. The Goldilocks era has ended as the Fed keeps rates elevated to combat inflation. Portfolio maintains 25% equities in quality names while adding inflation protection through index-linked bonds. Corporate financial distress is rising but long-term opportunities in digitization and Asian growth remain attractive. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BDX, DEO, GOOGL, MSFT, NESN.SW, NVDA, PG, UL, V | AI, asset allocation, credit, interest rates, Multi-Asset, Recession, technology, Valuations |
AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH GOOGL |
Troy Asset Management positions defensively amid zero-rate unwinding and AI bubble dynamics, holding quality tech names like Microsoft and Alphabet while avoiding speculative plays. With 5% risk-free rates available, the firm emphasizes capital protection and flexibility through short-dated government bonds, preparing for strategic opportunities as asset prices adjust to higher cost of capital in this dangerous bear market environment. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | BDX, DEO, GOOGL, MSFT, NESN.SW, PG, UL, V | Banking, credit, inflation, Multi-Asset, Passive investing, rates, real estate | - | Troy Multi-Asset delivered 6.8% in Q1 while positioning defensively amid banking failures and aggressive Fed tightening. Equity allocation reduced to 20-year lows as credit stress emerges from the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years. Strategy focuses on resilient businesses and government bonds, positioned to capitalize when valuations reflect the new higher-rate reality. |
| Dec 31 2022 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI continues to dominate stock market narrative with sharp share price moves, especially downward. Focus on disruption to SaaS companies and data companies. Hyperscalers doubling down on AI investments with breathtaking capital expenditure. Alphabet and Microsoft positioned to remain resilient due to multiple ways to win. |
Software Cloud Data Centers Semiconductors Enterprise Software |
GoldGold up for the quarter overall but failed to offset equity declines during March. Reduced holding from 14% to 10% at around $5,100 after strong run. Investment banks becoming highly enthusiastic with year-end targets over $6,000/oz making managers nervous about short-term disappointment. |
Gold Commodities Inflation | |
OilWar with Iran provides fourth material supply shock this decade. Energy crisis risks reversal in fragile economic growth and increases potential for recession. Scarcity of raw materials like oil will take time to work through global supply chains. |
Oil Energy Geopolitical | |
YenBegan holding approximately 10% in yen through short-dated Japanese Government Bonds expecting sustained US dollar weakness. Yen is cheapest in 35 years with dollar rising 55% since 2020. Expected to provide diversification and offset during risk-averse periods. |
Yen Currency Japan | |
InflationCentral banks struggling to reach inflation targets facing spectre of stagflation. 2020s proving considerably more inflationary decade than 2010s. Bonds proved poor hedge due to fears of rising inflation with closer correlations between asset prices expected to continue. |
Inflation Rates Stagflation | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager draws parallels between today's AI-driven environment and the 2014-15 oil collapse, warning that AI has become a macroeconomic assumption embedded in capital expenditure plans and valuations. Notes AI infrastructure is profoundly energy-intensive with rising electricity costs compressing margins, while many AI-exposed companies trade at multiples assuming near-flawless execution. |
Artificial Intelligence Valuations Infrastructure Energy |
EnergyDiscusses energy constraints as underappreciated risks in AI infrastructure, with data centers becoming largest single-site electricity consumers and rising power costs compressing margins. References the 2014-15 oil collapse as instructive parallel for understanding how energy signals broader economic fragilities. |
Electricity Data Centers Power Grid | |
ValuationsExpresses concern about elevated valuations across AI-exposed companies that assume near-flawless execution, noting that profitability today does not guarantee smooth future growth or prevent multiple compression if expectations shift. Warns against mistaking possibility for inevitability in current market pricing. |
Multiples Expectations Risk | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI investment boom parallels dotcom era with massive capital expenditure ($90bn last quarter) but unclear monetization timeline. Market pricing in transformative potential before productivity gains materialize. Infrastructure beneficiaries winning currently but competition will intensify as capital stock demands vast revenues for respectable returns. |
Artificial Intelligence Capital Expenditure Infrastructure Productivity Monetization |
GoldGold continued bull market with 50% rise in USD and 40% in sterling. Structural forces include central bank accumulation, fiscal dominance, geopolitics and sticky inflation. Recent trimming at $3,300 and $4,000 levels but long-term bullish view remains given unsustainable debt levels and lack of modern Paul Volcker. |
Central Banks Fiscal Dominance Geopolitics Inflation Diversification | |
ValueOpportunity emerging in defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare which haven't looked more friendless since 2000. Valuation divergence creating contrarian opportunities as market focuses on speculative growth. High-quality large-cap companies with consistent profit growth being overlooked. |
Defensive Sectors Contrarian Quality Divergence Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyUS tariffs averaging >30% were proposed on April 2nd, causing significant market dislocation with S&P 500 falling -12%. The manager views tariffs as economically damaging, acting as a tax on US businesses and consumers while potentially intensifying zero-sum thinking and inequality. |
Tariffs Protectionism Trade War Economic Policy Market Impact |
Grid UpgradeThe global grid needs to expand 2-3x to support growth in electricity demand, with electricity moving from 20% of global energy consumption today to 50% by 2050. This creates a long runway for grid investment driven by data centers, electric vehicles, and climate resilience needs. |
Electricity Grid Infrastructure Power Distribution Energy Demand Grid Investment | |
DollarThe manager expects continued de-dollarisation as central banks reduce dollar reserves in favor of gold. US dollar reserves have declined from 65% to 58% of central bank assets over the past decade, with 73% of surveyed central banks expecting to hold fewer dollars in five years. |
Reserve Currency De-dollarisation Central Banks Currency Reserves Gold | |
Risk AppetiteMarkets recovered to new all-time highs despite tariff concerns as animal spirits returned. The manager remains cautious about elevated valuations and expects more volatility, maintaining below-average equity allocation at 40% with plenty of dry powder for opportunities. |
Market Sentiment Valuations Volatility Asset Allocation Market Timing | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump's tariff policies are viewed as highly damaging, reversing decades of free trade benefits. The manager sees tariffs as a blunt instrument that will raise inflation, hurt consumers, and damage corporate margins while creating uncertainty that leads to job losses and reduced investment. |
Tariffs Free Trade Protectionism Manufacturing Inflation |
DollarThe US dollar's role as a safe haven is being questioned as trade wars accelerate regime change. Foreign investors may be reducing Treasury and equity holdings, while the administration desires dollar weakness through the proposed Mar-a-Lago Accord. |
Reserve Currency Safe Haven Foreign Capital Currency Wars Devaluation | |
InflationRising inflation is expected from tariff policies and regime change, leading to higher bond yields and challenging equity valuations. The manager sees inflation as sticky and problematic for the economic environment. |
Sticky Inflation Bond Yields Cost of Capital Pricing Power Real Returns | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIAI's potential is facilitating huge infrastructure investment and laying foundations for technology with profound significance. The adoption and monetisation of AI is occurring faster than previous technological shifts thanks to pre-existing internet infrastructure. Large language models are already impressive across applications, with a step change in cost of training and consuming models occurring. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Technology Cloud Computing |
ValuationsUS stock market concentration across handful of stocks reflects fragility, with top seven companies constituting 34% of S&P 500. Various warning lights flashing with fund managers running cash levels near all-time lows and US households most bullish since 1987. S&P 500 trades on 22x forward earnings, almost as expensive as 2021 peak. |
Concentration Multiples Expensive Bubble Risk | |
GoldGold was the single largest contributor to returns, appreciating 30% in sterling terms. Performance was underpinned by strong central bank buying and de-dollarisation as central banks, particularly in Emerging Markets, continue to shift assets away from the dollar. |
Central Banks De-dollarisation Emerging Markets Currency Safe Haven | |
RatesUS 10-year Treasury yield has risen from 3.6% to 4.6% since September, with UK 10-year yield also rising to 4.6%. Market has gone from pricing over five rate cuts to around one rate cut today. Higher yields have so far failed to exert gravitational pull over equities. |
Treasury Yields Fed Rate Cuts Bonds | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIMarkets have risen to new highs driven by excitement around vast investments into Artificial Intelligence, though fatigue is setting in with some questioning the potential return on billions invested into generative AI. The narrowness of returns with Nvidia alone accounting for 30% of the S&P 500 rally is concerning and often occurs late in market cycles. |
Artificial Intelligence Nvidia Technology Investment Returns |
InflationHigher public sector wages and a rise in the minimum wage expected in autumn may lead to anchoring of a higher level of inflation under the new Labour government's big government approach. |
Wages Minimum Wage Government Policy | |
GoldGold-related investments represent 12% of the portfolio allocation through iShares Physical Gold and Invesco Physical Gold holdings, reflecting the strategy's defensive positioning. |
Physical Gold Defensive Allocation | |
| 2024 Q1 |
GoldGold has outperformed the S&P 500 this century and reached new all-time highs. The firm has held exposure since 2003, viewing it as essential portfolio insurance that provides diversification and reduces risk. Gold exhibits volatility similar to equities but performs a different function, particularly valuable during market stress. |
Gold Diversification Portfolio Insurance Store of Value Central Banks |
InflationPost-pandemic economy faces sustained, sticky inflation driven by reversal of globalization and greater fiscal stimulus. Rising interest rates significantly increase the burden of servicing large US fiscal deficits. The Fed faces pressure to compromise between inflation targets and interest rates. |
Inflation Fiscal Deficit Interest Rates Monetary Policy Fed | |
| 2023 Q4 |
InflationManager expects persistent inflation driven by increased government spending and fiscal response to future recessions. Real rates likely to fall but nominal rates to stay above 2010s levels. Inflation for goods and services expected on top of asset price inflation. |
Inflation Rates Fiscal Policy Government Spending Real Rates |
Government SpendingUS fiscal deficit at $1.3trn for first three quarters of 2023, nearly 5% of GDP. Government spending approaching WWII levels driven by decarbonisation and reshoring agendas. Interest costs projected to reach 25% of revenues if rates stay elevated. |
Fiscal Deficit Government Debt Infrastructure Spending Decarbonisation Reshoring | |
OnshoringReshoring supply chains happening globally due to growing nationalism. US manufacturing spend doubled since June driven by CHIPS Act semiconductor manufacturing capability building. $650bn committed over next decade for reshoring and decarbonisation initiatives. |
Reshoring Supply Chains Manufacturing Semiconductors CHIPS Act | |
| 2023 Q3 |
InflationThe manager expects inflation to remain higher and less stable than market participants are used to over the next few years. This will be attended by higher nominal rates, uprooting the valuation yardstick of the past fourteen years. They have added to index-linked holdings to protect against ongoing inflationary risks. |
Inflation Real Yields TIPS Index-linked |
RatesThe Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping rates high to tame inflation has led to a structurally higher cost of capital. The manager believes rates will remain structurally higher in future, notwithstanding inevitable fluctuations if we enter an economic downturn. |
Interest Rates Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Cost of Capital | |
Credit Stress37% of nonfinancial companies in America are in financial distress according to Federal Reserve economists. Small businesses are particularly vulnerable as borrowing costs have risen from 4% to 10%, and regional banks are tightening lending standards significantly. |
Credit Financial Distress Small Business Bank Lending | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIAI represents a significant long-term opportunity for productivity and economic transformation, similar to the internet's impact. However, current market enthusiasm mirrors historical tech bubbles with extreme valuations. The manager expects AI's effects to be wider reaching than current narrow stock price moves suggest, but warns of Pavlovian market responses that will eventually become more nuanced. |
Technology Productivity Valuations Bubble Innovation |
RatesFor the first time in 15 years, investors have access to acceptable risk-free rates with short-dated UK government bonds yielding over 5%. Higher interest rates represent a dramatic shift from the zero-rate environment and will ultimately lead to more conservative valuations as the higher cost of capital makes egregious multiples of uncertain cash flows unjustifiable. |
Interest Rates Cost of Capital Valuations Monetary Policy Risk-Free Rate | |
Credit StressThe corporate lending environment has deteriorated to levels approaching previous downturns. 122 US companies with liabilities over $50m have filed for bankruptcy protection this year, implying a run rate comparable to the Global Financial Crisis. The dramatic increase in debt costs is already impacting small businesses as they refinance borrowings. |
Bankruptcy Corporate Lending Refinancing Financial Stress Downturn | |
| 2023 Q1 |
Credit StressBanking failures including SVB, Signature, and Credit Suisse highlight the fragility of the fractional reserve banking model. These events will lead to tighter lending standards and reduced credit availability, particularly affecting small businesses and commercial real estate. |
Banking Liquidity Deposits Lending |
RatesThe Federal Reserve's fastest rate hiking cycle in over 40 years, from 0.25% to 5% in twelve months, is creating delayed but significant impacts across the economy. Higher rates are affecting bank profitability and deposit flows as money market funds offer superior yields. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Interest Rates Deposits | |
Commercial Real EstateCommercial real estate faces particular vulnerability due to high leverage, rate sensitivity, and reliance on bank lending, with small banks providing 70% of sector loans. Prices are already falling double-digits year-over-year, the sharpest declines since the Financial Crisis. |
Leverage Bank Lending Price Declines Vulnerability | |
InflationWhile near-term inflation is likely to moderate due to credit contraction, longer-term inflationary behaviors are expected to persist through increased labor bargaining power and fiscal support. The Fed remains focused on fighting inflation despite banking sector stress. |
Labor Fiscal Policy Federal Reserve Credibility | |
ETFsThe growth of passive investment vehicles and algorithmic trading strategies has created a momentum-driven, value-insensitive market. This faceless market creates excessive volatility and opportunities for fundamental investors who understand underlying business value. |
Passive Investing Momentum Volatility Algorithms |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Internet Content & Information | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, Cloud computing, digital advertising, generative AI, market share gains, search engine, Technology Platforms, TPU Chips | Login |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Software - Infrastructure | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, capital expenditure, Cloud computing, Enterprise security, Enterprise software, Free Cash Flow, Model Agnostic, Office Suite | Login |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | Industrials | Electrical Components & Equipment | Bull | NYSE | climate change, data centers, Electric Vehicles, electrical equipment, Grid Infrastructure, Mission-Critical, Monopolistic, Pricing power, US, utilities | Login |
| Jan 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | HEIA.AS | Heineken N.V. | Consumer Staples | Brewers | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | alcoholic beverages, consumer staples, Emerging markets, Multi-year Lows, Premium Beer, valuation opportunity | Login |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH | Microsoft Corporation | Software & Services | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, Cloud computing, large-cap, Software, technology, Value | Login |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Software & Services | Internet Software & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, digital advertising, internet services, large-cap, technology, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| GOOGL | Alphabet's performance has helped our Multi-Asset portfolios over the past twelve months. The share price bottomed at $145 in April and doubled from the lows by the year end. The valuation has risen from ~15x to ~26x earnings. Google's parent was initially seen as an AI loser, with its core Search franchise perceived to be under threat. Following the successful launch of its Gemini 3 AI model, Google was seen to have overtaken OpenAI, alleviating fears of disruption to its Search business. Google has been taking share from ChatGPT; Gemini's share of web traffic in the generative AI market has increased from 5.3% to 22% in the past 12 months, while ChatGPT's has fallen from c.87% to c.65%. Alphabet proposing to roughly double its investment from $91bn in 2025 to $180bn in 2026. Alphabet highlighted a $240bn revenue backlog for its Google Cloud business alone. Alphabet boasts advantages both in the form of its own chips (TPUs) and a leading-edge model in the form of Gemini. |
| MSFT | Microsoft on a multiple c.20x, only offers a free cash flow yield of c.2.5% - a decade low. When we acquired the holding in 2010, the free cash flow yield was just below 10%. There is an increasing concern that OpenAI is losing its first mover advantage, which, alongside broader concerns around software franchises, is likely responsible for some of Microsoft's recent share price weakness. Microsoft owns 27% of OpenAI. Their capital expenditure is directed towards compute power for inference far more than towards training. Microsoft is, strategically, model-agnostic despite its OpenAI investment and integrates all the major models into its software. Microsoft's me-too product Teams won out in the end. We are cautious on the increased capital expenditure and retain a healthy degree of scepticism as to whether they can earn the same returns on this investment as were achieved during the cloud build-out. At the time of the cloud build-out in 2015, capex was less than $6bn or around 6% of sales, versus $65bn and 23% respectively in 2025. |
| CRM | Focus has been on SaaS (Software as a Service) companies, like Salesforce and SAP, and data companies, like Wolters Kluwer and Thomson Reuters. |
| SAP | Focus has been on SaaS (Software as a Service) companies, like Salesforce and SAP, and data companies, like Wolters Kluwer and Thomson Reuters. |
| WKL | Focus has been on SaaS (Software as a Service) companies, like Salesforce and SAP, and data companies, like Wolters Kluwer and Thomson Reuters. |
| TRI | Focus has been on SaaS (Software as a Service) companies, like Salesforce and SAP, and data companies, like Wolters Kluwer and Thomson Reuters. |
| CBRE | Other less obvious sectors affected have included caterers, like Compass, for fear of fewer employees to feed, real estate service companies, such as CBRE, wealth managers like St James's Place and insurance brokers including Marsh. |
| NVDA | Arguably the single greatest unknown, in terms of what will determine the future success of the semiconductor companies like Nvidia and model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, is whether scaling laws continue to hold. |
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