| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The Troy Global Equity Strategy has experienced a disappointing first half of 2026, with the portfolio markedly down while markets rose, driven by semiconductor and tech hardware gains the manager deliberately avoided. The Strategy invests in AI through hyperscalers rather than hardware suppliers, citing concerns about semiconductor cyclicality, fragile supply chain economics, and rich valuations that leave little room for disappointment. Market concentration has reached levels historically associated with peaks, with roughly 40 companies accounting for half the US index. Three core holdings faced headwinds: Visa declined on agentic commerce and regulatory concerns, Alcon disappointed on implantables execution, and Amadeus fell on AI disruption fears. The manager maintains conviction in each, viewing bear cases as overstated and valuations as compelling. At 24x forward earnings for Visa, 19x for Alcon, and 14x for Amadeus, these quality businesses trade at discounts to the market despite superior financial productivity. The manager continues adding to personal holdings, expecting patient ownership to be rewarded as companies compound cash flows and extend competitive advantages.
The Troy Global Equity Strategy focuses on owning high-quality businesses with privileged business models, strong competitive advantages, exceptional financial productivity, and solid balance sheets at attractive valuations, while deliberately avoiding overvalued cyclical sectors despite strong recent performance.
The manager acknowledges a very challenging and disappointing period with the Strategy markedly down while markets are up, but maintains conviction in companies with privileged business models, strong competitive advantages, and solid balance sheets owned at attractive valuations. Uncertainty in equity markets is high, and the manager believes patient ownership of exceptional businesses will be rewarded in extreme periods when capital floods into a single theme. The underlying companies are valued at a discount to the wider market despite far superior financial productivity, creating a clear opportunity for improved returns. The manager remains cautious on AI hardware due to concerns about capital cycle dynamics and rich valuations, but expects the companies held to continue operating well, generating substantial cash, and reinvesting to extend growth.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8 2026 | 2026 Q2 | ALC SW, AMS.MC, RIO, V | AI, Capital Cycle, Market Concentration, Medical Devices, payments, semiconductors, software, Valuations | - | Troy Global Equity Strategy underperformed significantly in H1 2026 by avoiding overvalued semiconductors and tech hardware despite AI-driven market gains. The portfolio holds quality businesses facing temporary headwinds: Visa navigating payment disruption fears, Alcon executing through product cycle challenges, and Amadeus weathering AI concerns. Trading at meaningful discounts with superior economics, these positions offer compelling risk-reward as market concentration reaches historic extremes. |
| Apr 29 2026 | 2026 Q1 | CBRE, CRM, GOOGL, MSFT, NVDA, SAP, TRI, WKL | AI, energy, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Japan, Multi-Asset, technology |
GOOGL MSFT |
Troy reduced gold exposure after strong gains while maintaining AI positions in Alphabet and Microsoft despite elevated valuations. New yen position hedges dollar weakness expectations. Iran war creates fourth supply shock this decade, raising stagflation risks. Upcoming mega-IPOs and AI disruption increase volatility. Strategy emphasizes real assets and quality growth while managing inflation and geopolitical risks through selective positioning. |
| Feb 9 2026 | 2025 Q4 | V | AI, Dollar, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, Multi-Asset, Valuations | - | Troy delivered strong 2025 returns while maintaining defensive positioning amid AI bubble concerns and dollar weakness. Gold outperformed as central banks diversified away from US Treasuries for first time. Reduced dollar exposure significantly following geopolitical tensions. High liquidity and short duration positioning provides flexibility to capitalize on expected volatility from elevated valuations and structural inflation risks. |
| Oct 30 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AMD, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, ORCL | AI, diversification, gold, risk, Speculation, technology, Valuations, value | - | Troy draws parallels between today's AI boom and 2000 dotcom bubble, with market concentration at century highs and speculative behavior returning. Reduced big tech holdings despite quality, focusing on overlooked defensive sectors. Gold bull market continues on structural support despite trimming at highs. Valuation extremes suggest cycle peak approaching. |
| Jun 30 2025 | 2025 Q2 | HUBB | Currency, Dollar, Grid, Multi-Asset, tariffs, Trade, Valuations, volatility | HUBB | Troy Multi-Asset opportunistically deployed capital during April's tariff-induced market selloff, increasing equity allocation to 40% while reducing dollar exposure amid de-dollarisation trends. New holding Hubbell benefits from massive grid infrastructure needs. Despite market recovery to new highs, managers remain cautious on valuations and expect continued volatility from trade policy uncertainty. |
| Mar 31 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Bonds, Dollar, inflation, Recession, regime change, tariffs, Trade Policy, Valuations | - | Lyon sees Trump's tariffs as destructive trade policy triggering recession and undermining dollar hegemony. Extreme 37x CAPE valuations offer little protection while rising yields challenge equity markets. Portfolio defensively positioned with reduced dollar exposure and shorter duration, but selectively adding to equities anticipating better opportunities from coming recession and valuation reset. |
| Dec 31 2024 | 2024 Q4 | AAPL, AMZN, COST, DEO, GOOGL, HEINY, META, MSFT, NESN.SW, NVDA, TSLA, UL, V, VRSN | AI, Bubbles, gold, infrastructure, Multi-Asset, rates, technology, Valuations | - | Troy Multi-Asset delivered 6.6% returns led by gold and quality equities, while maintaining defensive positioning amid concerning US market concentration and elevated valuations. The fund avoids AI semiconductor volatility but owns established cloud providers Microsoft and Alphabet positioned for infrastructure demand. Modest 30% equity exposure focuses on overlooked fundamentals-driven opportunities while benefiting from higher bond yields. |
| Jun 30 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AXP, DEO, GOOGL, HEINY, MSFT, NESN.SW, NVDA, UL, V | AI, Elections, gold, inflation, Multi-Asset, Politics, Uk, US | - | Troy Multi-Asset delivered 4% first-half returns through defensive positioning with 12% gold allocation and inflation-protected securities. Manager warns of unsustainable US debt dynamics and narrow AI-driven rally showing late-cycle characteristics. UK political stability under Labour may reduce Brexit discount but risks higher inflation from expansionary policies. |
| Mar 31 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BDX, DGE.L, GOOGL, HEIA.AS, MSFT, NESN.SW, UL, V | Central Banks, diversification, fiscal policy, gold, inflation, Multi-Asset | - | Troy defends gold holdings as essential portfolio insurance amid new all-time highs. Chinese demand, central bank buying, and US fiscal unsustainability with $1tn quarterly debt increases drive performance. Rising geopolitical tensions and Fed's impossible position between inflation and debt service create perfect storm for gold. Firm maintains core allocation as uncorrelated diversifier. |
| Dec 31 2023 | 2023 Q4 | BDX, DEO, GOOGL, HEIA.AS, MSFT, NESN.SW, PG, UL, V | Government Spending, inflation, Multi-Asset, Onshoring, rates, Recession, Valuations | HEIA.AS | Troy's Multi-Asset Strategy maintains defensive 25% equity allocation, viewing markets as priced for perfection with significant downside risks from either higher rates or earnings disappointment. Strategy returned 3% in 2023 while holding substantial bonds and gold. Managers expect persistent inflation from unprecedented government spending and remain ready to deploy capital when valuations become attractive. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | BDX, DEO, GOOGL, MSFT, NESN.SW, PG, UL, V | Bonds, credit, inflation, interest rates, Multi-Asset, Recession | - | Troy Multi-Asset delivered 6.6% returns while positioning for structurally higher rates and inflation. The Goldilocks era has ended as the Fed keeps rates elevated to combat inflation. Portfolio maintains 25% equities in quality names while adding inflation protection through index-linked bonds. Corporate financial distress is rising but long-term opportunities in digitization and Asian growth remain attractive. |
| Jun 30 2023 | 2023 Q2 | BDX, DEO, GOOGL, MSFT, NESN.SW, NVDA, PG, UL, V | AI, asset allocation, credit, interest rates, Multi-Asset, Recession, technology, Valuations |
AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH GOOGL |
Troy Asset Management positions defensively amid zero-rate unwinding and AI bubble dynamics, holding quality tech names like Microsoft and Alphabet while avoiding speculative plays. With 5% risk-free rates available, the firm emphasizes capital protection and flexibility through short-dated government bonds, preparing for strategic opportunities as asset prices adjust to higher cost of capital in this dangerous bear market environment. |
| Mar 31 2023 | 2023 Q1 | BDX, DEO, GOOGL, MSFT, NESN.SW, PG, UL, V | Banking, credit, inflation, Multi-Asset, Passive investing, rates, real estate | - | Troy Multi-Asset delivered 6.8% in Q1 while positioning defensively amid banking failures and aggressive Fed tightening. Equity allocation reduced to 20-year lows as credit stress emerges from the fastest rate hiking cycle in 40 years. Strategy focuses on resilient businesses and government bonds, positioned to capitalize when valuations reflect the new higher-rate reality. |
| Dec 31 2022 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jun 30 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Mar 31 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIThe manager recognizes AI's transformative potential and uses it in daily work, but deliberately avoids AI hardware companies due to concerns about cyclicality, fragile economics in the supply chain, and rich valuations pricing in sustained growth. The Strategy invests in AI through hyperscalers, targeting infrastructure and application layers to capture demand while maintaining flexibility when the capital cycle turns. |
Semiconductors Hyperscalers Capital Expenditure Cyclicality Valuations |
Semiconductor CycleThe manager expresses significant concern about semiconductor valuations and cyclicality, noting that rich multiples are applied to cyclically high margins with little room for disappointment. Historical patterns suggest shortages lead to gluts, and the scale of hyperscaler capex exceeds the dot-com fiber build-out as a proportion of GDP. The manager actively avoids the sector despite its strong recent performance. |
Valuations Capital Cycle Margins Supply-Demand | |
PaymentsThe manager maintains conviction in Visa despite near-term headwinds from agentic commerce concerns, stablecoin competition, and regulatory overhang. The bear case is viewed as overstated, with Visa's network effects, authentication capabilities, and transition to value-added services providing durable competitive advantages. At 24x forward earnings, the valuation is compelling for a business with stable growth and exceptional economics. |
Visa Network Effects Regulation Stablecoins | |
Ophthalmology DevicesAlcon faces execution challenges with stagnant implantables growth and contact lens slowdown, disappointing the manager. However, the broader portfolio shows strength in surgical equipment and ocular health products. Trading at historical valuation lows, the shares price in continued disappointment, offering an attractive opportunity to own the global leader with the deepest pipeline and defensible competitive position. |
Alcon Medical Devices Innovation Market Share | |
TravelAmadeus is viewed as an AI loser by the market, with concerns about GDS disintermediation and software disruption. The manager believes these risks are overstated, citing the complexity of travel systems, Amadeus's embedded position, and structural durability of its PSS business. At 14x forward earnings, the market prices in worse than total GDS extinction while ascribing no value to significant growth opportunities in Air IT modernization. |
Amadeus Distribution Software Disruption Risk | |
Market ConcentrationThe manager highlights that roughly 40 companies account for half of the US index, with 75% of MSCI World Index gains attributable to semiconductors and tech hardware since the Iran war began. This level of equity concentration is historically associated with stock market peaks, and the percentage of US stocks outperforming is at a 35-year low. |
Concentration Valuations Market Structure | |
CloudThe Strategy is significantly invested in hyperscalers, deliberately targeting AI's infrastructure and application layer to capture rapidly growing demand. The manager expects returns on investments to improve over the medium term as revenue expands and companies increase efficiency through custom silicon, models, and software development. This positions them relatively strongly when the capital cycle inevitably turns. |
Hyperscalers Infrastructure Returns Custom Silicon | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI continues to dominate stock market narrative with sharp share price moves, especially downward. Focus on disruption to SaaS companies and data companies. Hyperscalers doubling down on AI investments with breathtaking capital expenditure. Alphabet and Microsoft positioned to remain resilient due to multiple ways to win. |
Software Cloud Data Centers Semiconductors Enterprise Software |
GoldGold up for the quarter overall but failed to offset equity declines during March. Reduced holding from 14% to 10% at around $5,100 after strong run. Investment banks becoming highly enthusiastic with year-end targets over $6,000/oz making managers nervous about short-term disappointment. |
Gold Commodities Inflation | |
OilWar with Iran provides fourth material supply shock this decade. Energy crisis risks reversal in fragile economic growth and increases potential for recession. Scarcity of raw materials like oil will take time to work through global supply chains. |
Oil Energy Geopolitical | |
YenBegan holding approximately 10% in yen through short-dated Japanese Government Bonds expecting sustained US dollar weakness. Yen is cheapest in 35 years with dollar rising 55% since 2020. Expected to provide diversification and offset during risk-averse periods. |
Yen Currency Japan | |
InflationCentral banks struggling to reach inflation targets facing spectre of stagflation. 2020s proving considerably more inflationary decade than 2010s. Bonds proved poor hedge due to fears of rising inflation with closer correlations between asset prices expected to continue. |
Inflation Rates Stagflation | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIManager draws parallels between today's AI-driven environment and the 2014-15 oil collapse, warning that AI has become a macroeconomic assumption embedded in capital expenditure plans and valuations. Notes AI infrastructure is profoundly energy-intensive with rising electricity costs compressing margins, while many AI-exposed companies trade at multiples assuming near-flawless execution. |
Artificial Intelligence Valuations Infrastructure Energy |
EnergyDiscusses energy constraints as underappreciated risks in AI infrastructure, with data centers becoming largest single-site electricity consumers and rising power costs compressing margins. References the 2014-15 oil collapse as instructive parallel for understanding how energy signals broader economic fragilities. |
Electricity Data Centers Power Grid | |
ValuationsExpresses concern about elevated valuations across AI-exposed companies that assume near-flawless execution, noting that profitability today does not guarantee smooth future growth or prevent multiple compression if expectations shift. Warns against mistaking possibility for inevitability in current market pricing. |
Multiples Expectations Risk | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI investment boom parallels dotcom era with massive capital expenditure ($90bn last quarter) but unclear monetization timeline. Market pricing in transformative potential before productivity gains materialize. Infrastructure beneficiaries winning currently but competition will intensify as capital stock demands vast revenues for respectable returns. |
Artificial Intelligence Capital Expenditure Infrastructure Productivity Monetization |
GoldGold continued bull market with 50% rise in USD and 40% in sterling. Structural forces include central bank accumulation, fiscal dominance, geopolitics and sticky inflation. Recent trimming at $3,300 and $4,000 levels but long-term bullish view remains given unsustainable debt levels and lack of modern Paul Volcker. |
Central Banks Fiscal Dominance Geopolitics Inflation Diversification | |
ValueOpportunity emerging in defensive sectors like consumer staples and healthcare which haven't looked more friendless since 2000. Valuation divergence creating contrarian opportunities as market focuses on speculative growth. High-quality large-cap companies with consistent profit growth being overlooked. |
Defensive Sectors Contrarian Quality Divergence Opportunity | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyUS tariffs averaging >30% were proposed on April 2nd, causing significant market dislocation with S&P 500 falling -12%. The manager views tariffs as economically damaging, acting as a tax on US businesses and consumers while potentially intensifying zero-sum thinking and inequality. |
Tariffs Protectionism Trade War Economic Policy Market Impact |
Grid UpgradeThe global grid needs to expand 2-3x to support growth in electricity demand, with electricity moving from 20% of global energy consumption today to 50% by 2050. This creates a long runway for grid investment driven by data centers, electric vehicles, and climate resilience needs. |
Electricity Grid Infrastructure Power Distribution Energy Demand Grid Investment | |
DollarThe manager expects continued de-dollarisation as central banks reduce dollar reserves in favor of gold. US dollar reserves have declined from 65% to 58% of central bank assets over the past decade, with 73% of surveyed central banks expecting to hold fewer dollars in five years. |
Reserve Currency De-dollarisation Central Banks Currency Reserves Gold | |
Risk AppetiteMarkets recovered to new all-time highs despite tariff concerns as animal spirits returned. The manager remains cautious about elevated valuations and expects more volatility, maintaining below-average equity allocation at 40% with plenty of dry powder for opportunities. |
Market Sentiment Valuations Volatility Asset Allocation Market Timing | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyTrump's tariff policies are viewed as highly damaging, reversing decades of free trade benefits. The manager sees tariffs as a blunt instrument that will raise inflation, hurt consumers, and damage corporate margins while creating uncertainty that leads to job losses and reduced investment. |
Tariffs Free Trade Protectionism Manufacturing Inflation |
DollarThe US dollar's role as a safe haven is being questioned as trade wars accelerate regime change. Foreign investors may be reducing Treasury and equity holdings, while the administration desires dollar weakness through the proposed Mar-a-Lago Accord. |
Reserve Currency Safe Haven Foreign Capital Currency Wars Devaluation | |
InflationRising inflation is expected from tariff policies and regime change, leading to higher bond yields and challenging equity valuations. The manager sees inflation as sticky and problematic for the economic environment. |
Sticky Inflation Bond Yields Cost of Capital Pricing Power Real Returns | |
| 2024 Q4 |
AIAI's potential is facilitating huge infrastructure investment and laying foundations for technology with profound significance. The adoption and monetisation of AI is occurring faster than previous technological shifts thanks to pre-existing internet infrastructure. Large language models are already impressive across applications, with a step change in cost of training and consuming models occurring. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Technology Cloud Computing |
ValuationsUS stock market concentration across handful of stocks reflects fragility, with top seven companies constituting 34% of S&P 500. Various warning lights flashing with fund managers running cash levels near all-time lows and US households most bullish since 1987. S&P 500 trades on 22x forward earnings, almost as expensive as 2021 peak. |
Concentration Multiples Expensive Bubble Risk | |
GoldGold was the single largest contributor to returns, appreciating 30% in sterling terms. Performance was underpinned by strong central bank buying and de-dollarisation as central banks, particularly in Emerging Markets, continue to shift assets away from the dollar. |
Central Banks De-dollarisation Emerging Markets Currency Safe Haven | |
RatesUS 10-year Treasury yield has risen from 3.6% to 4.6% since September, with UK 10-year yield also rising to 4.6%. Market has gone from pricing over five rate cuts to around one rate cut today. Higher yields have so far failed to exert gravitational pull over equities. |
Treasury Yields Fed Rate Cuts Bonds | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIMarkets have risen to new highs driven by excitement around vast investments into Artificial Intelligence, though fatigue is setting in with some questioning the potential return on billions invested into generative AI. The narrowness of returns with Nvidia alone accounting for 30% of the S&P 500 rally is concerning and often occurs late in market cycles. |
Artificial Intelligence Nvidia Technology Investment Returns |
InflationHigher public sector wages and a rise in the minimum wage expected in autumn may lead to anchoring of a higher level of inflation under the new Labour government's big government approach. |
Wages Minimum Wage Government Policy | |
GoldGold-related investments represent 12% of the portfolio allocation through iShares Physical Gold and Invesco Physical Gold holdings, reflecting the strategy's defensive positioning. |
Physical Gold Defensive Allocation | |
| 2024 Q1 |
GoldGold has outperformed the S&P 500 this century and reached new all-time highs. The firm has held exposure since 2003, viewing it as essential portfolio insurance that provides diversification and reduces risk. Gold exhibits volatility similar to equities but performs a different function, particularly valuable during market stress. |
Gold Diversification Portfolio Insurance Store of Value Central Banks |
InflationPost-pandemic economy faces sustained, sticky inflation driven by reversal of globalization and greater fiscal stimulus. Rising interest rates significantly increase the burden of servicing large US fiscal deficits. The Fed faces pressure to compromise between inflation targets and interest rates. |
Inflation Fiscal Deficit Interest Rates Monetary Policy Fed | |
| 2023 Q4 |
InflationManager expects persistent inflation driven by increased government spending and fiscal response to future recessions. Real rates likely to fall but nominal rates to stay above 2010s levels. Inflation for goods and services expected on top of asset price inflation. |
Inflation Rates Fiscal Policy Government Spending Real Rates |
Government SpendingUS fiscal deficit at $1.3trn for first three quarters of 2023, nearly 5% of GDP. Government spending approaching WWII levels driven by decarbonisation and reshoring agendas. Interest costs projected to reach 25% of revenues if rates stay elevated. |
Fiscal Deficit Government Debt Infrastructure Spending Decarbonisation Reshoring | |
OnshoringReshoring supply chains happening globally due to growing nationalism. US manufacturing spend doubled since June driven by CHIPS Act semiconductor manufacturing capability building. $650bn committed over next decade for reshoring and decarbonisation initiatives. |
Reshoring Supply Chains Manufacturing Semiconductors CHIPS Act | |
| 2023 Q3 |
InflationThe manager expects inflation to remain higher and less stable than market participants are used to over the next few years. This will be attended by higher nominal rates, uprooting the valuation yardstick of the past fourteen years. They have added to index-linked holdings to protect against ongoing inflationary risks. |
Inflation Real Yields TIPS Index-linked |
RatesThe Federal Reserve's commitment to keeping rates high to tame inflation has led to a structurally higher cost of capital. The manager believes rates will remain structurally higher in future, notwithstanding inevitable fluctuations if we enter an economic downturn. |
Interest Rates Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Cost of Capital | |
Credit Stress37% of nonfinancial companies in America are in financial distress according to Federal Reserve economists. Small businesses are particularly vulnerable as borrowing costs have risen from 4% to 10%, and regional banks are tightening lending standards significantly. |
Credit Financial Distress Small Business Bank Lending | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIAI represents a significant long-term opportunity for productivity and economic transformation, similar to the internet's impact. However, current market enthusiasm mirrors historical tech bubbles with extreme valuations. The manager expects AI's effects to be wider reaching than current narrow stock price moves suggest, but warns of Pavlovian market responses that will eventually become more nuanced. |
Technology Productivity Valuations Bubble Innovation |
RatesFor the first time in 15 years, investors have access to acceptable risk-free rates with short-dated UK government bonds yielding over 5%. Higher interest rates represent a dramatic shift from the zero-rate environment and will ultimately lead to more conservative valuations as the higher cost of capital makes egregious multiples of uncertain cash flows unjustifiable. |
Interest Rates Cost of Capital Valuations Monetary Policy Risk-Free Rate | |
Credit StressThe corporate lending environment has deteriorated to levels approaching previous downturns. 122 US companies with liabilities over $50m have filed for bankruptcy protection this year, implying a run rate comparable to the Global Financial Crisis. The dramatic increase in debt costs is already impacting small businesses as they refinance borrowings. |
Bankruptcy Corporate Lending Refinancing Financial Stress Downturn | |
| 2023 Q1 |
Credit StressBanking failures including SVB, Signature, and Credit Suisse highlight the fragility of the fractional reserve banking model. These events will lead to tighter lending standards and reduced credit availability, particularly affecting small businesses and commercial real estate. |
Banking Liquidity Deposits Lending |
RatesThe Federal Reserve's fastest rate hiking cycle in over 40 years, from 0.25% to 5% in twelve months, is creating delayed but significant impacts across the economy. Higher rates are affecting bank profitability and deposit flows as money market funds offer superior yields. |
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Interest Rates Deposits | |
Commercial Real EstateCommercial real estate faces particular vulnerability due to high leverage, rate sensitivity, and reliance on bank lending, with small banks providing 70% of sector loans. Prices are already falling double-digits year-over-year, the sharpest declines since the Financial Crisis. |
Leverage Bank Lending Price Declines Vulnerability | |
InflationWhile near-term inflation is likely to moderate due to credit contraction, longer-term inflationary behaviors are expected to persist through increased labor bargaining power and fiscal support. The Fed remains focused on fighting inflation despite banking sector stress. |
Labor Fiscal Policy Federal Reserve Credibility | |
ETFsThe growth of passive investment vehicles and algorithmic trading strategies has created a momentum-driven, value-insensitive market. This faceless market creates excessive volatility and opportunities for fundamental investors who understand underlying business value. |
Passive Investing Momentum Volatility Algorithms |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Internet Content & Information | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, Cloud computing, digital advertising, generative AI, market share gains, search engine, Technology Platforms, TPU Chips | Login |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | MSFT | Microsoft Corporation | Software - Infrastructure | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, capital expenditure, Cloud computing, Enterprise security, Enterprise software, Free Cash Flow, Model Agnostic, Office Suite | Login |
| Jul 31, 2025 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | HUBB | Hubbell Incorporated | Industrials | Electrical Components & Equipment | Bull | NYSE | climate change, data centers, Electric Vehicles, electrical equipment, Grid Infrastructure, Mission-Critical, Monopolistic, Pricing power, US, utilities | Login |
| Jan 1, 2024 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | HEIA.AS | Heineken N.V. | Consumer Staples | Brewers | Bull | Euronext Amsterdam | alcoholic beverages, consumer staples, Emerging markets, Multi-year Lows, Premium Beer, valuation opportunity | Login |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | AAPL|MSFT|NFLX|NVDA|UNH | Microsoft Corporation | Software & Services | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, Cloud computing, large-cap, Software, technology, Value | Login |
| Jul 1, 2023 | Fund Letters | Trojan Fund from Troy Asset Management | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | Software & Services | Internet Software & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, digital advertising, internet services, large-cap, technology, Value | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| V | Visa's shares are -1% (in GBP) since the start of the year, recovering from a -16% peak-to-trough drawdown, and responding to anxiety in four areas: Agentic commerce as a disintermediation threat. If autonomous agents are to execute purchases, critics argue the card credential becomes one option among many. Google, OpenAI/Stripe, and Coinbase are all developing agent-native protocols that could theoretically route transactions outside card networks entirely. Stablecoins as a cost-competitive alternative. Structurally lower transaction costs make stablecoins attractive for cross-border and B2B flows. The US GENIUS Act gives regulatory cover for Stripe and others to build stablecoin infrastructure, and merchants – longstanding critics of swipe fees – may increasingly steer volume away from card networks. Regulatory overhang. The Credit Card Competition Act (CCCA) in the US, the Department of Justice ('DOJ') antitrust lawsuit targeting Visa's US debit dominance, and the pending interchange settlement with merchants collectively put a cloud over the fee structure that has underpinned Visa's economics for decades. Even if the probability of each individually is modest, the cumulative noise depresses the valuation. A maturing cash-displacement tailwind. Visa's business has long benefited from being a critical intermediary enabling the transition from physical cash payments to digital transactions made with card credentials. With US card penetration now 72% of consumer payment volume, up from 58% a decade ago, there is a growing concern that future volume growth will be lower, more GDP-dependent, and more cyclical. We believe each element of the bear case is overstated or misunderstood. On GDS. The risk is credible, but the business has survived disintermediation threats for twenty years, with volumes proving highly resilient. Visa has launched its Intelligent Commerce Platform and Trusted Agent Protocol; Mastercard has Agent Pay. Authentication, delegated consent, fraud liability, and dispute resolution are precisely the problems card networks have spent decades solving. Money movement is a commodity, but globally networked acceptance, governance and security are not. The Apple Pay experience is instructive here. When Apple launched its own payments layer twelve years ago, many feared commoditisation and disintermediation. Instead, Apple used the networks – Visa, Mastercard and American Express – as a distribution and settlement layer thereby accelerating card adoption. We see the networks' role as enhanced, not diminished, in an agentic world, unlocking new revenue opportunities. On stablecoins. The narrative confuses infrastructure with competition. Stablecoins have product-market fit in B2B cross-border, treasury management, and EM corridors with volatile currencies – markets traditionally served by banks, not cards. Visa is opening its network to this opportunity. It has 130+ stablecoin-linked card programmes and grew its stablecoin settlement volume from $0.1bn to $4.6bn annualised in 2025. In developed-market consumer-to-merchant payments, the chicken-and-egg adoption problem (requiring scale on both sides of the consumer-merchant divide), transaction irreversibility, and absence of credit features make near-term displacement unlikely, in our view. On regulation. The CCCA has stalled since 2023 as its primary champion in the Senate is retiring. The DOJ debit case won't reach trial before 2027–28, and in any case US domestic debit is a mid-teens percentage of net revenue – a manageable exposure. A final merchant settlement approval in late 2026 would be a net positive, in our opinion, as it would remove the risk of a trial. We expect banks to cede economics in a settlement rather than the networks, consistent with past regulatory intervention on card interchange. On cash displacement. The global picture is considerably more constructive than the US-centric bear case implies. Consumer-to-business payments are a $40tn volume market, 64% card-penetrated, with ~$11tn of cash and cheque opportunity remaining. The 10 largest continental European markets hold over 20% of that opportunity, with few competing alternative payment methods proliferating, unlike India or Brazil. Even in the most mature markets, growth is not exhausted: Visa grew Nordic revenues at ~15% CAGR between FY22–24 despite 90%+ digital payment penetration. Beyond geography, card volume growth understates the revenue opportunity. Processed transactions grow faster than dollar volumes, and Visa derives over one-third of gross revenue from the number of transactions, forming a base that benefits disproportionately from small-ticket items, tokenisation and agentic commerce growth. Value-added services (tokenisation, fraud analytics, cybersecurity, open banking, issuer processing) now represent ~30% of revenues, growing +25% year-on-year. Visa's revenue model is transitioning from a cash-to-card conversion story toward more expansive services and infrastructure, making revenue structurally less dependent on consumer spending volumes. We believe Visa can sustain low double-digit revenue growth in the medium term. At ~24x consensus earnings over the next 12 months, the shares trade at the low end of their long-term averages. We find the risk vs reward compelling for a business with stable growth and exceptional economics. |
| ALC.SW | Whereas Visa's latest quarter revealed one of the strongest underlying growth rates in more than a decade, Alcon's operating performance has been less than stellar. The shares are down -14% (in GBP) year-to-date. The market's verdict is that execution has repeatedly disappointed and that the medium-term outlook for mid-to-high single digit revenue growth is no longer credible. Growth has slowed for two reasons: Stagnant implantables growth. Whilst tariffs and investment spending have had an impact on earnings in the near term, the bear case is mostly focussed on Alcon's intraocular lens (IOL) franchise for cataracts surgery. Implants account for ~17% of total group sales and the premium end of this segment is one of the highest-margin and, historically, one of the faster-growing parts of the business. Segment growth has slowed to the low-single-digits under weaker US procedure volumes and intensifying competition. With last year's soft trends recurring, investor patience is running thin. Contact lens slowdown. A secondary concern is a reduction in growth for contact lenses from the high-single digits to the mid-single digits. Market growth is weaker as pricing in European markets moderate, and Alcon's share gains have diminished as product launches mature. We share the disappointment. We also take a broader perspective. Implant competition has proven fiercer than we anticipated and category growth has unexpectedly slowed. Yet Alcon's ophthalmology portfolio is very broad, and management gets too little credit for their long track record for execution and innovation. For implantables. We expect new product launches to stabilise market share in the coming 12 months, and for new industry capacity in the US to restore category growth. Near-term implant share pressure does not change the long-run economics of owning the leading IOL franchise in a market (covering equipment, implants, and surgical consumables) with decades of growth ahead. For contacts. Underlying growth is healthier than the headlines suggest as Alcon deliberately retires older lines in favour of newer ones. We are encouraged by launches in the higher margin reusable segment, where Alcon is under-represented. Diminished pricing power is partly cyclical, following outsized 2023-2024 increases and soft consumer confidence. Alcon continues to win international share, and the industry remains a disciplined oligopoly based on patient and optician loyalty and manufacturing complexities. Elsewhere, performance is encouraging. Alcon is successfully innovating and commercialising products across surgical equipment, over the counter (OTC) and prescription medicines. It stands at the start of a 10-year cataracts surgical equipment replacement cycle, driving strong near-term equipment sales and pulling through revenue for premium-priced surgical consumables. Alcon's Ocular Health segment – OTC and prescription medicines, primarily for dry eye – is of a similar size and profitability to surgical implants and grew +10% in the latest quarter, driven by new product launches. Balancing the short term against the long term. We do not dismiss the slowdown in important ophthalmic categories or the execution risk required to address it. We also find the quality of Alcon's assets – distribution, brands, R&D engine, and position in a structurally attractive oligopoly – are intact. Trading at their historical lows, the company's share price continued disappointment and structural impairment, offering an attractive opportunity to own the global leader in ophthalmology, with the broadest product range, the deepest pipeline, and a defensible competitive position. We expect Alcon to reassert their leadership with new products, directed by a management team that has transformed and revitalised the business over the past decade via continuous reinvestment, innovation and strong execution. |
| AMS.MC | Amadeus has been a significant detractor from performance over the past year, with the shares falling -20% year-to-date. The market has designated Amadeus as an AI loser whilst the war in Iran poses additional immediate challenges to the airline industry. The structural concern has two angles that cover both sides of Amadeus's business. The death of the Global Distribution System ('GDS'). Amadeus's Air Distribution business connects travel agents with airlines. The bear case argues that AI agents will disintermediate the GDS as a booking channel, as the internet and direct connections were each supposed to do before them. Software disruption. Amadeus is ensnared in the pervasive bear case for enterprise software – competitive intensity increases as AI agents replace human-operated systems, enterprises build their own tools, and third-party licence and seat counts will fall. A sector with high recurring revenues faces structurally higher risk of customer churn and pricing pressure. We think the market underestimates the complexity and fragmentation of the travel industry and Amadeus's unique position in it, thereby conflating two risks and overstating both. A compelling growth opportunity is therefore overlooked. On GDS. The risk is credible, but the business has survived disintermediation threats for twenty years, with volumes proving highly resilient. Airlines operate in a competitive, low-margin, safety-obsessed industry and Amadeus's corporate and international volumes, where GDS is concentrated, are some of the airlines' most valuable customers. Airlines change distribution at the pace of the slowest, most risk-averse participant. On the other side of the network, Amadeus's data are deeply embedded into the workflows and economics of travel agents and corporate travel management companies. AI does not displace their compliance frameworks and incentives. If agentic AI does emerge as a separate booking channel, Amadeus is better placed than heavily indebted rivals Sabre and Travelport to connect to it. And in any case, GDS is a declining share of the business as higher-margin IT segments expand. On Air IT. The standard seat-based software bear case simply does not apply to Amadeus because it charges per passenger boarded, not per licence. Revenue therefore scales with passenger volumes, not employee headcount, making Air IT a variable customer cost – an attractive model for low-margin airlines. Beyond the pricing model, the structural durability is exceptional. Amadeus's core Passenger Service System ('PSS') is the operational hub of an airline, managing inventory, reservations, departure control, 24/7, across hundreds of integrations. Migration for these systems is described as open-heart surgery; in practice it is closer to a brain transplant mid-conversation. Contracts run for a decade. In the last five years, only four airlines with more than 10 million passengers changed PSS provider – all four moved to Amadeus. With ~70% contribution margins and over €1.5bn in annual R&D, Amadeus can price out any new entrant. We do not see Air IT as a business to be defended. The industry's ongoing transition to modern systems structurally lifts revenue per passenger as airlines run old and new systems in parallel and modularity creates a clearer path to cross-selling new functionality. With ~50% market share and industry-leading technology, we estimate this dynamic alone adds materially to the medium-term earnings trajectory. The opportunity beyond airlines is similarly underappreciated. Amadeus's Hospitality and Other Solutions business is growing quickly, leveraging data-centric cloud infrastructure originally built for airlines and now applied across hotels, ground transport and other travel verticals. Agentic AI is an enabler here, accelerating expansion into existing markets and extending into new ones. At 14x estimated earnings over the next 12 months, pessimism appears excessive. If Air Distribution's earnings went to zero immediately and permanently – the worst possible outcome – the remaining Air IT and Hospitality businesses would likely be worth above the current share price. The market is pricing in something worse than total, immediate GDS extinction, while ascribing no value whatsoever to the significant growth opportunities in Air IT modernisation and travel adjacencies. |
| RIO | This year reminds us of 2007 when miners were all the rage. Commodity prices were at their highs, China was growing its economy at +10–15% annually, the industry was supply-constrained, and miners enjoyed supernormal profits. Animal spirits ran wild. Rio Tinto's share price nearly doubled in 2007, added another third in the first half of 2008, and peaked at double their historic average EV/Sales multiple, partly fuelled by BHP Billiton's hostile bid. Those who avoided the froth, Gabrielle among them, vividly recall being told that they don't get it. Rio's share price then fell -85% in roughly six months as the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) shattered perceptions of supply and demand. It took over a decade to reclaim those highs. We recall this episode not to predict a financial crisis or imminent collapse. Nor do we suggest AI hardware companies sell commodities. It is a reminder, however, that intelligent, well-informed people can extrapolate the status quo to mistake a capital cycle for a permanent structural shift. Buying something popular and highly priced need not result in capital loss, unless sold out at the lows. It can, though, deliver modest returns for a very long time. |
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