| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Q2 2026 saw equity markets stage a powerful rally despite challenging fundamentals, with the S&P 500 gaining 15.2% and reaching record highs in early June. Following Q1's 5% decline driven by Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure fears, markets reversed sharply as a ceasefire framework emerged and oil prices collapsed 26% in May. The quarter was notable for broadening market participation, challenging the narrative of narrow mega-cap tech dominance. Small caps surged 22.6% year-to-date, value outperformed growth by nearly 5% in June, and emerging markets led globally with a 24% quarterly gain driven by semiconductor demand in Korea and Taiwan. Fixed income remained range-bound as the Federal Reserve held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fourth consecutive meeting, disappointing doves. Despite the rally, significant uncertainties persist around inflation at three-year highs, unresolved geopolitical tensions, and interest rate direction. The forward-looking market has wagered on continued earnings growth and fading energy shocks, though this bet remains unproven with Strait of Hormuz traffic not fully recovered.
Q2 2026 delivered a round-trip rally for risk assets, with the S&P 500 gaining 15.2% for the quarter despite elevated inflation, hawkish Fed policy, and unresolved Middle East conflict, as markets wagered the worst of the energy shock had passed and corporate earnings would continue growing, while market participation broadened significantly to value, small caps, and emerging markets in a healthier rotation away from mega-cap tech dominance.
Questions regarding the direction of interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical conflicts remain unsettled despite equity markets hitting record highs. While the market has wagered that the worst of the energy shock has passed and corporate earnings will continue growing, this bet may or may not prove correct. The broadening of market participation to value, small caps, and international equities reflects a healthier upward climb, though Strait of Hormuz tanker crossings have not recovered to prewar levels.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15 2026 | 2026 Q2 | - | emerging markets, geopolitics, inflation, Market Commentary, oil, rates, small caps, value | - | Markets delivered a 15% Q2 rally to record highs as Middle East ceasefire hopes collapsed oil prices and broadened participation beyond mega-cap tech. Small caps surged 22.6% year-to-date, value trounced growth, and emerging markets led globally on semiconductor strength. The Fed held hawkish at 3.50-3.75% despite three-year high inflation. Markets are betting the energy shock has peaked and earnings growth continues, though geopolitical and rate uncertainties remain unresolved. |
| May 4 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | crypto, defense, global, Japan, Long/Short, semiconductors | - | TYME Advisors materially outperformed across all portfolio types in Q1 2026. Global Armaments and Japan currency-hedged exposure drove gains while Semiconductors detracted. Systematic risk management enabled Bitcoin exits avoiding double-digit losses. The firm filters Japanese companies for shareholder-friendly governance, maintaining disciplined quantitative approach to position sizing and risk control. |
| Mar 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AAPL, AVAV, AVGO, BA.L, CBOE, FNV, GOOGL, MRK, NDAQ, NVDA, PLTR, RHM.DE, RTX, TPG, WPM | Alternatives, defense, Exchanges, gold, Japan, Long/Short, Quality, royalties | - | TYME Advisors delivered strong annual outperformance through a quality-focused long/short strategy emphasizing defense spending, gold exposure, and capital markets. Key moves included exiting Bitcoin and rotating to US large caps, while maintaining structural themes around global rearmament and precious metals. The disciplined approach combines systematic risk management with exposure to long-term structural trends across equities and alternatives. |
| Oct 7 2025 | 2025 Q3 | 3774.T, 3791.T, 4819.T, AAPL, BTC-USD, CBOE, FNV, GOOGL, KTOS, LB.AX, NDAQ, NVDA, PLTR, RTX, TPG, WPM | Armaments, Bitcoin, commodities, defense, gold, inflation, Long/Short, technology | - | Strong Q3 performance driven by defense technology and hard assets as global rearmament accelerates. Portfolio positioned for monetary debasement through gold and Bitcoin while maintaining exposure to US defense tech leaders and precious metals royalties. Systematic long/short extension provides tax efficiency. Outlook focused on continued defense spending growth and inflation hedging amid geopolitical tensions. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
OilOil prices experienced extreme volatility driven by the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure. Brent crude fell 26% in May following ceasefire framework and strait reopening. Energy sector rose nearly 38% in Q1 amid supply disruption fears, then reversed sharply as geopolitical tensions eased. |
Brent Energy Strait of Hormuz Supply disruption |
InflationInflation reached a three-year high during the quarter, driven by energy shock from Middle East conflict. Despite elevated inflation readings, markets wagered the worst had passed. Federal Reserve maintained hawkish stance with policy rate held at 3.50% to 3.75%, disappointing doves. |
CPI Energy shock Stagflation Fed policy | |
Small CapsSmall caps significantly outperformed in Q2, with Russell 2000 gaining 3.7% in June alone and up 22.6% year-to-date. Market participation broadened substantially in final weeks of quarter, challenging the narrative of narrow, top-heavy market dominance. Equal-weighted S&P 500 also outperformed cap-weighted index. |
Russell 2000 Market breadth Rotation | |
ValueValue stocks outperformed growth significantly in June, with Russell 1000 Value Index outpacing growth by nearly 5% in the month. Value reached 16.3% year-to-date return versus 5.3% for growth. Broadening market participation favored value orientation as mega-cap tech dominance faded. |
Russell 1000 Value Style rotation Outperformance | |
Emerging MarketsEmerging markets led global equity performance with MSCI EM Index gaining roughly 24% in Q2 and 23.85% year-to-date. Rally driven by semiconductor and memory demand in Korea and Taiwan. Stronger U.S. dollar slightly dampened returns in dollar terms but did not offset strong absolute performance. |
MSCI EM Korea Taiwan Semiconductors | |
RatesFederal Reserve maintained policy rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for fourth consecutive hold, disappointing doves. Treasury yields experienced volatility with thirty-year spiking to near two-decade high of 5.18% in mid-May before easing to 4.91%. Two-year ended near 4.14% and ten-year around 4.44%. |
Fed Treasury yields Policy rate | |
| 2026 Q1 |
DefenseGlobal Armaments was a key contributor to performance both for the quarter and year to date, adding material value to portfolio returns. |
Defense Armaments Military |
CryptoBitcoin position was fully exited twice to avoid double-digit drawdowns using quantitative risk management. Manager maintains long-term bullish views but employs systematic approach similar to commodity trading funds for risk management. |
Bitcoin Crypto Digital Assets | |
JapanJapan exposure with dynamic currency hedging was a key contributor, utilizing a filtered universe of 1,300+ Japanese companies screened for shareholder-friendly governance and yield metrics, resulting in less than 200 companies. |
Japan Currency Hedging Governance | |
SemiconductorsSemiconductors were a key detractor from performance both for the quarter and year to date, subtracting value from portfolio returns. |
Semiconductors Technology Chips | |
| 2025 Q4 |
Defense SpendingThe entire world is rapidly rearming off an extremely low base of defense spending. Global armaments materially outperformed for the year with top contributors including Rheinmetall, Palantir Technologies, and RTX. |
Armaments Defense Geopolitical Spending Security |
GoldGold is positioned as a superior store of value with reliable scarcity and the highest stock-to-flow ratio of any physical commodity. The manager created a leveraged gold exposure called 'Gresham's Wrath' that materially outperformed benchmarks. |
Precious Metals Inflation Store of Value Monetary Scarcity | |
Managed FuturesStrategy designed to generate absolute returns with low correlations to equities and bonds. Updated to include European exposures across interest rates, energy, and agriculture to improve the opportunity set. |
Alternatives Commodities Trend Following Diversification Risk Management | |
Capital MarketsExchanges operate as essential high-margin toll roads for the economy with immense operating leverage. Both exposures materially outperformed with Nasdaq and Chicago Board of Options Exchange as top contributors. |
Exchanges Trading Technology Data Infrastructure | |
JapanMaintains long-term bullish views but rotated from unhedged to dynamically hedged exposure due to currency headwinds from weakening Yen. New position filters for companies that treat shareholders better based on governance screens. |
Currency Hedging Shareholder Yield Corporate Governance Foreign Exchange | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Defense SpendingGlobal armaments spending is accelerating across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific driven by renewed great power competition. The US defense budget is pushing toward the trillion-dollar mark with heavy emphasis on R&D and next-generation technology. European nations are dramatically increasing defense spending due to the Ukraine conflict and shifting US policy. |
Defense Armaments Military R&D Technology |
GoldGold serves as a superior store of value with absolute scarcity and the highest stock-to-flow ratio of any physical commodity. Central bank demand is accelerating while US Treasuries are being reduced, with physical deliveries highlighting growing mistrust in the global monetary system. |
Gold Central Banks Monetary Scarcity Store of Value | |
CryptoBitcoin represents the hardest money ever created with absolute scarcity and a mathematically enforced 21 million coin cap. It closes a 150-year technological gap between fast digital transactions and slow physical settlement, enabling individual sovereignty and censorship resistance in an era of monetary debasement. |
Bitcoin Scarcity Digital Sovereignty Debasement | |
Capital MarketsExchanges operate as essential high-margin toll roads for the economy with immense operating leverage and natural inflation hedging. They benefit from strong network effects, regulatory barriers, and consistent fee generation regardless of market direction while adapting to new asset classes like digital assets. |
Exchanges Trading Fees Volatility Infrastructure | |
EnergyWest Texas real estate provides exposure to perpetual oil and gas royalty interests in the Permian Basin, generating high-margin revenue without operational risks. The capital-light business model creates powerful compounding effects while serving as an inflation hedge through commodity-linked revenues. |
Oil Gas Royalties Permian Inflation | |
JapanJapanese owner-operator companies offer compelling opportunities at bargain prices with authentic local exposure and management incentive alignment. The mature economy with declining population creates competitive moats while limiting foreign competition due to language barriers and closed corporate structures. |
Japan Owner-operators Local Innovation Value |
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