| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
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| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, Asia, China, global, gold, inflation, rates, Trade Policy | - | UOB Asset Management takes strategically neutral positioning as markets face inflection point with tariff headwinds peaking Q4 2025. Assigns 50% probability to continued growth versus 50% combined recession/stagflation risk. Overweights Asia and Europe equities, underweights US, maintains gold overweight. Expects 1-2 Fed cuts, inflation rising to 3-4%, and 10-year yields ranging 4.00-4.50%. |
| Jul 1 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | asset allocation, China, commodities, equities, fixed income, global, rates, Trump | - | UOB downgrades to neutral across asset classes as Trump policies create greater uncertainties than expected, raising recession risks to 30 percent. Favors Europe and Asia over US equities given improving growth prospects versus American earnings downgrades. Overweights credits and gold while expecting Fed cuts to 4 percent. China stabilization policies support Asian opportunities. |
| Apr 1 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Asia, China, equities, fixed income, inflation, Rate Cuts, Trump, usd | - | UOB Asset Management expects 2025 to drive a shift towards risk taking with continued growth and moderating inflation. They overweight equities targeting 10-15 percent returns, favor US markets with Asia potential in H2, and prefer credits over government bonds. Trump policies viewed as negotiating tactics while China stabilization supports emerging markets despite elevated valuations and geopolitical risks. |
| Jan 1 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | Asia, China, emerging markets, equities, fixed income, global, growth, rates | - | UOB Asset Management turns cautious for Q4 2024 after strong YTD performance, neutralizing equity overweights due to moderating growth and elevated valuations. Despite near-term headwinds from employment concerns and election uncertainties, they expect favorable 2025 conditions from continued expansion and rate cuts, maintaining neutral positioning across regions while preferring credits over government bonds. |
| Jul 5 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | Asia, China, equities, fixed income, global, Manufacturing, rates | - | UOB Asset Management expects continued positive performance for equities and fixed income as global expansion broadens. They favor Asia markets over developed markets due to better valuations and earnings growth, while preferring credits over government bonds. Risks have shifted from economic overheating to overcooling, creating a more favorable investment environment. |
| Apr 2 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | Asia, equities, Expansion, fixed income, global, growth, technology | - | UOB Asset Management sees 2024 as potentially similar to the 1990s expansion, with AI breakthroughs and normalizing interest rates creating attractive investment conditions. They favor equities over cash, prefer Asian markets for better valuations, and maintain gold overweight. The firm believes recession risks have faded while technological innovation drives multi-year rally potential. |
| Jan 5 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | Asia, Central Banks, China, earnings, global, inflation, Manufacturing, rates | - | UOB Asset Management declares the hard part is over for 2024, expecting normal investing conditions with inflation controlled, rate hikes done, and no recession. Equities should deliver high single digit returns driven by earnings growth rather than macro concerns, with better market breadth as manufacturing recovers globally. |
| Jul 5 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | Asia, China, fixed income, inflation, Neutral, rates, Recession | - | UOB Asset Management sees upside risks outweighing downside as the global economy proves more resilient than expected. They favor fixed income over equities, citing better risk-adjusted returns with rates near peak. Asia is preferred over developed markets despite China's disappointing reopening. The rolling recession thesis supports a soft landing scenario avoiding significant unemployment increases. |
| Apr 4 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | Asia, China, fixed income, growth, inflation, rates, Recession | - | UOB Asset Management sees economic imbalances improving with inflation moderating faster than perceived and rates nearing peak levels. They favor fixed income over equities amid shallow recession expectations, while China's reopening supports Asian growth prospects. The firm expects 2023 to restore global economic equilibrium and reduce market volatility. |
| Apr 1 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | Asia, China, fixed income, growth, inflation, rates, Recession | - | UOB Asset Management sees 2023 offering clearer investment opportunities after 2022's broad asset class weakness. Strategy overweights fixed income to capture attractive yields as inflation moderates, maintains neutral equities until growth recovers mid-year, and prefers Asia given China reopening and domestic resilience. Key thesis: moderating inflation creates fixed income opportunities while economic clarity improves through the year. |
| Oct 14 2022 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 15 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Feb 17 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
Live SportsManager sees significant value in sports teams and entertainment assets, recommending Atlanta Braves Holdings, Madison Square Garden Sports, Manchester United, and Rogers Communications for their sports assets. Believes sports teams are hot and increasingly interesting to institutional investors with enormous global interest. |
Sports Teams Entertainment Media Rights Valuation |
MediaRecommends Fox for its sports and news programming assets, noting strong ad market for live sports and news. Also bullish on Versant Media Group spin-off from Comcast, expecting significant cash generation and debt paydown within two years. |
Broadcasting Advertising Cable Networks Spin-offs | |
Natural GasBullish on National Fuel Gas, highlighting its strategic gas reserves in Appalachian Basin and regulated utility business. Notes that 33% of US gas comes from Appalachia and natural gas provides 40% of US electric power, with reserves near population centers being unappreciated. |
Utilities Energy Infrastructure Reserves Free Cash Flow | |
AIAcknowledges AI as animating markets for two years with profound changes coming to economy and society. However, warns that AI will disappoint investors at some point, comparing it to late 1990s tech boom with multiple speculative solutions likely to unfold unexpectedly. |
Technology Speculation Productivity Disruption | |
GoldNotes gold's thunderous rally in 2025, outperforming almost all stocks with 167% return in their gold fund. Explains demand from governments like China and Dubai seeking store of value alternatives to dollars, with gold trading at $4,300 per ounce. |
Precious Metals Store of Value Currency Alternative Geopolitical | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Trade PolicyTrump administration policies are creating significant market uncertainties with potentially stagflationary effects. The administration appears more ideological than in the first term, with greater willingness to accept economic deterioration. Tariff threats and policy back-and-forths are causing businesses to halt investment and activity due to lack of policy clarity. |
Tariffs Stagflation Policy Uncertainty Growth |
ChinaChina stabilization policies are putting a floor under growth with renewed focus on technology innovations and domestic consumption. Policy pivots include more support for local private enterprises, which account for 60 percent of China's GDP and 80 percent of urban employment. Structural growth potential exists in new economy industries, notably AI-related companies in data and cloud space. |
Stabilization Domestic Technology Private Growth | |
RatesFed targeting neutral rate around 3.5 percent with Fed Funds rate of 4 percent expected, implying one or two more cuts in 2025. US Treasury 10-year yield expected to range between 4.25-4.75 percent. Central banks globally are in different stages of rate cycles with diverging monetary policies across regions. |
Fed Cuts Neutral Yields Divergence | |
GoldStrong structural story continues with supply and demand issues supporting prices. Central banks are diversifying reserves away from USD into gold, while gold mining has been underinvested for years. Gold appeals as safe asset class during periods of rising political uncertainties and risks. |
Central Reserves Safe Diversification Supply | |
Risk AppetiteInvestment world looking more mixed after early hopes of straightforward year eroded. Uncertainties around Trump policies appear greater than in first term, leading to downgrade of equities to neutral and neutralizing all major asset classes. Rising risks require more caution despite solid global growth backdrop. |
Neutral Caution Uncertainty Mixed Downgrade | |
| 2025 Q1 |
InflationThe team expects inflation to moderate but remain higher-for-longer, with US service sector wage growth staying elevated while rents moderate. They believe moderate inflation can be positive for markets, as both stocks and bonds tend to perform better when inflation and interest rates are trending at higher levels. |
Inflation Wages Services Rates Taylor Rule |
RatesFed Funds rate expected to reach around 4 percent in 2025 following a Taylor Rule model. Bond yields should range between 4.25-4.75 percent, offering steady yields but limited capital gains potential. Rate cuts are expected but progress toward 2 percent inflation target will be slower. |
Fed Funds Rate Cuts Bond Yields Taylor Rule Monetary Policy | |
Trade PolicyTrump's tariff and immigration announcements are viewed as bargaining chips for deals rather than willingness to hurt the economy. The team recommends not being overly alarmed by these policies, seeing them as attempts to strike deals rather than prolonged conflict. |
Tariffs Immigration Trump Trade War Deals | |
ChinaChina's stabilization policies have put a floor to its slowing growth and created a floor on global commodities. Local government debt resolution has accelerated with scope for sufficient policy support to cushion downside growth risk and bolster consumer sentiment. |
Stabilization Stimulus Property Consumer Growth | |
DollarUSD has rebounded to highest level since 2023 driven by expanding rate differentials versus other major economies. USD strength should persist in near term but team is neutral given strengths are mostly priced in. Expected to remain strong against EUR and CNY but depreciate against JPY. |
USD Rate Differentials EUR CNY JPY | |
GoldGold has held gains and continued to make new highs through most of 2024. Demand from global central banks expected to remain high and continue driving up price. Rising geopolitical uncertainties have further improved the case for gold as a safe haven. |
Central Banks Safe Haven Geopolitical New Highs Demand | |
| 2024 Q4 |
RatesCentral banks globally are shifting to rate cuts after three years of tight monetary policy. The Fed and other central banks are expected to continue cutting rates, creating a positive backdrop for markets despite near-term uncertainties about pace and depth. |
Rate cuts Monetary policy Fed Central banks Bond yields |
ChinaChina's growth has remained sluggish and has been holding back emerging market performance. Fiscal and monetary policies have been underwhelming although valuations are attractive. Strong exports provide some buffer against property headwinds and weak consumer sentiment. |
China growth Property downturn Exports Consumer sentiment Valuations | |
AsiaAsian equities typically outperform in lower US interest rate environments and on US dollar weakness. The region should benefit from rate cuts and USD peaking, though correlation to global growth remains a concern as growth may be slowing. |
Asian equities Rate cuts USD weakness Global growth Emerging markets | |
GoldGold has held gains and continued to make new highs through most of 2024. Demand from global central banks is expected to remain high and continue to drive up prices. Rising geopolitical uncertainties have further improved the case for gold. |
Gold Central bank demand Geopolitical risks Safe haven New highs | |
| 2024 Q3 |
AsiaAsia is starting to outperform with manufacturing PMIs turning to expansion territory and global exports expected to grow by double digits in the second half. China has turned from one of the region's worst to best performers, with the firm moving from underweight to overweight on China. |
Manufacturing Exports China Valuations Earnings |
AIAI-related demand is driving continued strength in global exports and supporting the region. AI, biotech, EV technologies and other technology-related sectors remain attractive themes for future innovation. |
Technology Innovation Exports Semiconductors | |
GoldThe case for gold remains strong as a portfolio stabilizer with emerging market buying set to rise and significant supply constraints. Rising geopolitical uncertainties have further improved the case for gold. |
Diversification Geopolitical Supply Emerging Markets | |
Electric VehiclesThe global trend toward electric vehicles continues despite concerns of oversupply and moderated growth rates. EV adoption is reducing long-term oil demand outlook, though resource demands from EVs will remain strong for many years. |
Battery Metals Energy Transition Oil Demand Technology | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI and technology themes are described as the most exciting since the 1990s. The letter emphasizes AI-enhanced productivity growth being reported at many companies and suggests AI could help improve overall economic productivity. This technological breakthrough is contributing to market excitement and innovation. |
Technology Productivity Innovation Growth Breakthrough |
GoldThe letter maintains an overweight position on gold as interest rates have peaked while global gold supply and demand dynamics look supportive of prices. The case for gold remains strong with emerging market buying expected to rise, significant supply constraints, and rising geopolitical uncertainties improving the investment case. |
Interest Rates Supply Demand Geopolitical Emerging Markets | |
ChinaChina is viewed cautiously with continued policy support needed amid subdued consumer and business sentiment. The letter notes China's growth has been weak but industrial production and GDP trends have been improving. They believe the China market has been overly sold off despite structural rebalancing challenges. |
Policy Support Consumer Sentiment Industrial Production Rebalancing Property | |
| 2024 Q1 |
InflationCore inflation has declined significantly from 9.0% in early 2022 to 3.2% by end of 2023. Excluding rent inflation, the trend is already back to the central bank target of close to 2.0%. The firm expects core inflation to ease to about 2.5% in 2024. |
Central Banks Rates Monetary Policy Economic Normalization Price Stability |
RatesInterest rate hikes at the US Fed and ECB are done. The firm expects two rate cuts from the US Fed and ECB in 2024, fewer than consensus expectations of four or more cuts. Higher-for-longer interest rate regime marks a structural shift from the ZIRP era. |
Fed ECB Monetary Policy Higher For Longer Rate Cuts | |
ChinaChina surprised with a quickly fading reopening trade in early 2023. The country is struggling to grow without property and infrastructure investment drivers. While China has strong economic prospects, it will take time to become less reliant on its property sector. |
Property Sector Economic Rebalancing Growth Transition Reopening Structural Reform | |
AsiaAsia should benefit from global trade and manufacturing pickup, USD strength subsiding, and better valuations. The region has the best earnings growth expectations and should benefit from peaking interest rates. However, markets may continue to focus on developed markets despite better Asian growth. |
Manufacturing Global Trade Valuations Earnings Growth USD Weakness | |
EarningsCurrent forecasts show double-digit earnings growth in the US and Asia, with mid to high single-digit growth for Europe and Japan. The firm assumes revenues will grow consistent with economic trends and margins should support high single digit earnings growth in major markets. |
Revenue Growth Margin Expansion Economic Growth Corporate Profitability Market Returns | |
| 2023 Q3 |
InflationCore inflation is moderating faster than most investors' expectations, with rental growth numbers driving current above-target levels. Current market data shows rapid decline in US rents, and it's only a matter of time before CPI data catches up. |
CPI Core Inflation Rental Growth Fed Policy Rate Hikes |
RatesInterest rates are at or near their peak across developed markets. The Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, with expectations for rate pauses followed by potential cuts next year as inflation moderates. |
Fed Rate Hikes Terminal Rate Yield Curve Central Banks | |
ChinaChina's reopening has been distinctly two-speed with strong consumer demand but sluggish fixed asset investments. PMI data shows continued weakness ahead, and geopolitical concerns have heightened considerably, capping near-term upside despite attractive valuations. |
Reopening Consumer Demand PMI Geopolitical Risk Valuations | |
AISecular growth in Artificial Intelligence adoption is likely to sustain the rally in technology-centric markets, particularly benefiting Taiwan's domestic equity market and selective tech names with greater AI focus. |
Technology Taiwan Secular Growth Tech Rally Adoption | |
| 2023 Q2 |
InflationInflation is improving faster than most investors realize, with headline inflation averaging close to 2% in the second half of 2022 after averaging over 10% in the first half. Core inflation has reached 2% or lower excluding shelter components, and wage growth has declined to 4%. |
Inflation Wages Core Shelter Disinflation |
RatesInterest rates are approaching their peak with central banks likely to pause rate hikes by the second half of 2023. The 10-year UST yield is expected to range between 3.5 to 4.0% in the first half of 2023, providing clarity for fixed income prospects. |
Interest Rates Fed Central Banks Peak Yields | |
ChinaChina's reopening is driving cyclical expansion with consumption-based economic recovery supported by monetary and fiscal policies. The reopening should provide solid growth for Asia, though the recovery appears more muted than previous cycles due to reduced property and infrastructure investment. |
China Reopening Consumption Recovery Asia | |
| 2023 Q1 |
InflationInflation is expected to moderate in 2023 as underlying drivers from 2022 are easing. Energy prices have fallen to negative year-on-year growth, auto prices have reverted below last year's levels, and freight rates have returned to historical norms. The key remaining uncertainty is labor and services costs, which should dissipate if unemployment rises. |
Inflation Energy Labor Services Wages |
RatesInterest rate outlook has become much clearer for 2023. The US Fed will likely hike to about 5 percent and then pause. The 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to track 75-100 basis points below the terminal rate, targeting 3.5-4 percent in the first half of 2023. Sharp yield rises that undermined fixed income in 2022 are far less likely. |
Rates Fed Treasury Yields Monetary Policy | |
ChinaChina's growth slowed dramatically in 2022 due to COVID and other policies, but this looks set to change to allow more growth in 2023. China's reopening should drive greater uplift in services and benefit commodities. The country's risk/reward profile is turning more attractive as COVID policies ease and regulatory concerns appear overdone. |
China Reopening Growth Services COVID |
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