| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 16.38% | 22.4% | 8.5% |
Voss Value Fund returned +22.4% net in Q2 2026, bringing YTD returns to +8.5%, though lagging small-cap benchmarks. The fund maintains concentrated exposure with 178.7% gross and 100.6% net long positioning across four new positions. The manager initiated Rackspace Technology, a high-leverage turnaround with unutilized data center capacity positioned to benefit from AI infrastructure demand through a strategic AMD compute partnership potentially generating $500-600 million in incremental revenue. Versigent, an Aptiv spin-off, offers exposure to automotive electrification with 33% market share in EV wire harnesses trading at 5x EBITDA. Hill & Smith provides US grid infrastructure exposure at an 8.7x EBITDA discount to peers despite 84% US profit generation. De'Longhi represents an underappreciated coffee equipment compounder with its high-growth Professional Coffee segment valued near zero. The manager flags structural AI risks including hyperscaler cash flow consumption, rapid token pricing decay, and lack of productivity gains despite $1.5 trillion in cumulative outlays. Small-cap fundamentals are inflecting positive with SMID earnings revision breadth reaching +10% after troughing at -28%, while valuations remain inverted at deep discounts to large caps, creating fertile ground for active stock selection.
Voss Capital is pursuing a concentrated small and mid-cap value strategy focused on special situations including spin-offs, turnarounds, and mispriced compounders, with particular emphasis on companies benefiting from AI infrastructure buildout, grid modernization, and secular consumer trends, while maintaining significant short exposure to hedge market risk.
The manager expects small-cap fundamentals to continue improving as they emerge from a multi-year industrial recession, with valuations remaining at deep discounts to large caps creating opportunities for active stock selection. They anticipate M&A and corporate action catalysts to accelerate. While disappointed with recent results, they remain focused on their time-tested process and long-term compounding, viewing market volatility as a small toll to pay on their long-term alpha odyssey.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25 2026 | 2026 Q2 | AMD, DLG.MI, HILS.L, PLTR, RXT, SN, VGNT | AI Infrastructure, Data centers, small caps, special situations, Spin-Offs, Turnarounds, value | - | Voss returned +22.4% in Q2 2026 through concentrated small-cap special situations. Four new positions target AI infrastructure turnarounds (Rackspace), automotive electrification (Versigent spin-off at 5x EBITDA), US grid modernization (Hill & Smith at discount valuations), and specialty coffee equipment growth (De'Longhi's mispriced Professional segment). Small-cap fundamentals are inflecting positive with earnings revisions turning favorable while valuations remain deeply discounted, though AI infrastructure concentration presents structural risks. |
| May 28 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AAPL, EEFT, EIX, GOOGL, NVDA, PAR, PCG, SRE, XPOF | activism, AI, momentum, semiconductors, software, Texas, Utilities, value | SRE | Voss Value Fund down 11.4% in Q1 as AI momentum dominates markets, but manager sees opportunity in Sempra Energy restructuring and activist positions at PAR, EEFT, XPOF. Portfolio concentrated in small-cap value situations trading at discounts to fundamentals while avoiding overvalued semiconductor and AI themes. Expects corporate catalysts to drive alpha despite challenging momentum-driven environment. |
| Mar 4 2026 | 2025 Q4 | CHH, CLBT, FLYW, PAR | AI, Automation, Hotels, small cap, software, technology, value | - | Voss Value underperformed in Q4 2025 due to AI-driven software sell-offs, but maintains conviction in incumbent software companies with structural moats and asset-light businesses at distressed valuations. Key positions include Flywire at 6x EBITDA despite strong growth and Choice Hotels with multiple re-rating catalysts at historic lows. |
| Nov 25 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CLBT, EEFT, FIVN, FLYW, NVDA, PLNT, PRKS, XPOF | AI, Buybacks, Concentration, Fintech, revenue growth, small caps, software, value |
CVNA EEFT XPOF PRKS FLYW CLBT |
Voss underperformed in Q3 due to market preference for growth over value, with quality factors down 20% year-to-date. Portfolio concentrated in deeply discounted Consumer Discretionary, Software, and FinTech names trading at historic lows despite strong cash flows and buyback programs. Manager views current positioning as asymmetric opportunity for patient capital. |
| Aug 22 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMZN, ARE.TO, CLBT, CRM, ECN, FIVN, GENI, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NOW, PHIN, PRKS, TWLO, VRNT | AI, cybersecurity, Long/Short, nuclear, small caps, sports betting, technology, value |
GENI CLBT ECN PHIN PRKS ARE CN FIVN |
Voss Value Fund targets undervalued small caps with strong competitive positions trading at steep discounts to peers. Despite Q2 underperformance, portfolio companies like Genius Sports and Cellebrite offer 50-70% upside potential. Economic headwinds from employment weakness contrast with potential deregulation tailwinds. Small cap valuations appear attractive after decade of underperformance versus large caps. |
| Jun 4 2025 | 2025 Q1 | FLYW, SN, TSLA, WMT | consumer, innovation, Long/Short, payments, small caps, tariffs, value |
FLYW SN |
Voss Value exploits extreme market dispersion where small caps trade at recessionary valuations while mega caps reach unsustainable multiples. New positions in Flywire and SharkNinja represent quality compounders at narrative-driven discounts. The fund maintains concentrated long/short positioning to capitalize on what management views as a uniquely fertile opportunity set for alpha generation. |
| Feb 19 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AMTM, CTS.TO, EEFT, FUJHY, MBGYY, PLYA, SWI | Long/Short, M&A, small caps, special situations, undervalued, value |
EEFT MBGYY FUJHY AMTM |
Voss Value delivered 19.9% returns in 2024 through disciplined small-cap value investing, with early 2025 success in M&A situations including three acquisition wins. The concentrated portfolio targets undervalued securities amid market extremes, maintaining 85% net long exposure. Focus on special situations and valuation discipline drives uncorrelated alpha generation despite challenging market conditions. |
| Nov 26 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BWA, BYD, CAVA, LI, NIO, PHIN, RCM, TM, WMT | Auto Parts, Electric Vehicles, M&A, small caps, valuation, value | PHIN | Voss Value returned 7.6% in Q3 with concentrated small-cap positioning amid market euphoria. New core holding Phinia benefits from stalled EV adoption and competitive fuel systems dynamics. Manager sees opportunities in undervalued companies trading below private market values, expecting M&A rebound with record private equity dry powder seeking targets. |
| Aug 26 2024 | 2024 Q2 | PRKS | consumer, rates, small caps, Theme Parks, value | PRKS | Small caps are oversold and poised for outperformance as Fed cuts approach and earnings growth rebalances away from mega caps. New core position United Parks & Resorts trades at 6.8x 2025 EBITDA despite operational improvements, offering 80% upside potential. Theme park sector remains deeply discounted with compelling value proposition during economic uncertainty. |
| Jun 8 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ALTG, GENI, IMXI, PAR, RCM, RTO.L, SLCA, SWI | AI, Long/Short, M&A, small caps, sports betting, technology, value | - | Voss Value delivered 9.2% in Q1 despite small cap headwinds, maintaining concentrated exposure to undervalued names trading at distressed multiples. Portfolio includes restaurant tech, software, and special situations with significant upside potential. Manager expects M&A acceleration and fundamental recognition to drive outperformance over 12-36 months, with forward FCF yield around 11% supporting compelling risk/reward. |
| Feb 27 2024 | 2023 Q4 | GFF, RCM | cyclicals, Healthcare IT, Homebuilders, Long/Short, small caps, value |
AAGFF BRCM |
Voss delivered strong Q4 performance staying heavily long small cap cyclicals despite market volatility. Small caps trade at attractive valuations with superior earnings growth prospects. New position R1 RCM capitalizes on healthcare automation trends while trimmed Griffon position after 200%+ gains. Positioned for Fed rate cuts to drive outperformance and M&A surge. |
| Nov 6 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL, CRH, CROX, ECN.TO, NVDA, SKY, TSLA | Building Materials, consumer, Homebuilders, infrastructure, interest rates, Long/Short, small caps, value | - | Small cap value at historic extremes after 3rd worst bear market by duration in 40+ years. Portfolio of credit-sensitive stocks trades at distressed ~6x earnings despite strong fundamentals. New infrastructure spending and housing supply shortage provide structural tailwinds. Portfolio FCF yield three times risk-free rate suggests significant upside when inevitable cycle turns favor small caps over mega-cap tech concentration. |
| Aug 23 2023 | 2023 Q2 | IIIV, TYL | Fintech, Long/Short, small caps, software, value | IIIV | Voss Value Fund delivered solid Q2 returns despite facing extreme growth-versus-value headwinds that represent 98th percentile factor performance. The fund's small-cap value strategy maintains strong valuation support with 12.5% weighted average free cash flow yield. New FinTech position i3 Verticals exemplifies their approach of finding quality companies trading at discounted valuations during sector-wide weakness. |
| May 16 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ASO, ECN.TO, PLYA | credit, Long/Short, Regional Banks, small cap, Specialty Finance, Travel, value |
PLYA ASO ECN.TO |
Small-cap value fund hit by historic style rotation but positioned for reversal. Portfolio trades at 15% FCF yield with strong fundamentals. Key positions include travel recovery play PLYA at 70% upside, retailer ASO with 207% potential, and ECN Capital in strategic review process. Expects outperformance as factor headwinds abate and M&A rebounds. |
| Mar 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | ALTG | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q2 |
AIThe manager discusses the massive AI infrastructure buildout by hyperscalers, noting it now represents roughly half of all Russell 3000 CapEx and has morphed into a debt-fueled real estate development arms race. However, they flag structural risks including hyperscaler cash flows being fully consumed by CapEx, rapid AI token pricing decay, and lack of economy-wide productivity gains despite $1.5 trillion in cumulative outlays. They warn that if open-source models gain share while enterprise ROI remains weak, it could force a reality check. |
Hyperscalers Data Centers CapEx Infrastructure Token Pricing |
Data CentersThe fund initiated a position in Rackspace Technology, viewing it as uniquely positioned with existing data center footprint and substantial unutilized capacity. They highlight the AMD agreement to deploy 30 Megawatts of compute as a potential gamechanger that could produce $500-600 million in incremental revenue and $250-400 million in EBITDA. The manager sees data center exposure across multiple holdings including Hill & Smith's 9% revenue exposure. |
Rackspace Capacity Infrastructure Compute Utilization | |
Small CapsThe manager notes that small-cap fundamentals are quietly turning the corner after a multi-year industrial recession. They observe that SMID-cap earnings revision breadth has inflected higher, emerging from a three-year downgrade regime with net EPS revision breadth finishing Q2 at +10% after troughing at -28% in 2023. Valuations remain inverted from historical premium to deep discount versus large caps, creating fertile hunting ground for active stock selection. |
SMID Valuations Earnings Revisions Fundamentals | |
SemiconductorsThe manager discusses semiconductor companies as direct beneficiaries of AI infrastructure spending, noting they have posted the strongest positive earnings revisions. However, they observe extreme volatility where semiconductor titans regularly swing ±8% in hours on little news, and note that if one prints a beat-and-raise, unrelated software and quality stocks may reflexively gap down 3% as hot money rotates. They reference the AMD partnership with Rackspace as strategic for compute access. |
AMD Chips Volatility AI Infrastructure | |
Electric VehiclesThe manager initiated a position in Versigent, a wire harness manufacturer with 33% market share in EV/hybrid platforms. They note that hybrid vehicles have ~1.5x the wire harness content of ICE vehicles and battery electric vehicles have ~1.7x the content, representing a structural tailwind. The company sells ~$750 of content per vehicle and is benefiting from the shift toward electrification with more complex, high-voltage architectures. |
Wire Harness Content Electrification Hybrids | |
Grid UpgradeThe manager highlights Hill & Smith's exposure to electrical grid infrastructure, which now represents 24% of total group revenues with record order backlogs at V&S Utilities. They view the US grid modernization as a multi-year tailwind and note the company is adding capacity to meet strong demand. The manager sees this as a high-ROIC compounder benefiting from secular infrastructure investment. |
Utilities Infrastructure Substations Backlog | |
CoffeeThe manager initiated a position in De'Longhi, the #1 espresso machine producer globally, highlighting the transformation toward a coffee equipment powerhouse with ~70% of revenue from coffee. They emphasize the Professional Coffee segment's 33% growth and secular trends including global premiumization, specialty coffee expansion, rapid cafe openings, and automation adoption. They see the Professional Coffee business being valued at near zero despite strong growth and 30% EBITDA margins. |
Espresso La Marzocco Specialty Coffee Premiumization | |
CloudThe manager discusses Rackspace's positioning in both public and private cloud managed services, noting that Sovereign AI has slowed and even reversed the trend of Private Cloud customers migrating to Public Cloud. They highlight that for the first time in years, Rackspace is guiding to growth in Private Cloud in 2026, which they expect to significantly accelerate in 2027 as customers realize their data is a strategic asset requiring secure storage. |
Private Cloud Sovereign AI Managed Services Data Security | |
| 2026 Q1 |
AIManager discusses AI's dominance in market momentum and capital flows, noting record-high semiconductor exposure among active managers and massive AI capex spending by mega-cap tech companies. Highlights concerns about ROI on hundreds of billions being spent and questions around circular financing dynamics. |
Semiconductors Capex Momentum Valuations Tech |
SemiconductorsSemiconductor space has grown from 6.8% to 16.9% of total US market cap in three years, driven by AI supply shortage. Manager notes active manager exposure is at 100th percentile historically, with emerging risk from Chinese memory supply entering US market. |
Market Cap Supply China Memory Cyclicality | |
MomentumMomentum factor up ~40% YTD versus Quality down 30%, with trailing 30-day returns breaking records from internet bubble peak. Manager describes this as defining market trend with extreme concentration and viral memes dictating returns. |
Factor Concentration Bubble Volatility Records | |
UtilitiesManager has accumulated significant position in Sempra Energy, viewing it as opportunity to unlock value through simplification. Highlights Oncor's 17% annual rate base growth and transmission infrastructure buildout in Texas as key drivers. |
Sempra Oncor Texas Transmission Rate Base | |
Energy TransitionDiscussion centers on unprecedented secular tailwinds from Permian Basin electrification, population growth, and transmission infrastructure upgrades in Texas. Manager sees this as nation-leading growth opportunity in regulated utility space. |
Electrification Infrastructure Growth Regulated Secular | |
ValueManager describes market where unlevered growth businesses with recurring revenue trade at discount to levered, low-growth cyclicals. Notes widespread mispricings in software sector due to viral fears and broad generalizations drowning out individual fundamentals. |
Mispricings Software Fundamentals Discount Cyclicals | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been the defining theme of market leadership in 2025, driving data center capex and benefiting semis, electrical equipment, and tech hardware. The theme reasserted dominance after NVIDIA's strong earnings in late November, though concerns about durability caused temporary rotation. |
Data Centers Semiconductors Infrastructure |
ElectrificationPortfolio maintains largest absolute and relative exposure to Industrials sector representing conviction in Electrification theme. Bloom Energy benefited from AI data center power demands, with fuel cells providing reliable onsite power for AI workloads. |
Power Energy Storage Grid | |
BiotechnologyBiotech delivered its best quarter in five years driven by improving rate environment, easing regulation enabling more M&A, and excitement around AI's promise in drug discovery efficiency. Sector was a standout performer during the quarter. |
Drug Discovery M&A Regulation | |
SolarFirst Solar benefited from Trump Administration's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' driving US demand for non-China solar products. Company differentiates with thin-film CdTe technology offering better performance in hot/humid/low light conditions. |
Manufacturing Trade Policy | |
SpaceRocket Lab operates in Launch Services and Space Systems segments, providing rides to orbit for small satellites and manufacturing spacecraft components. Stock was up nearly 50% in the quarter on strong earnings and growing backlog. |
Launch Services Satellites Defense | |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI investment has surged by ~$300B since 2023, contributing over 1% to US GDP. Tech CapEx is up 40% y/y with giants doubling spend, threatening ROIC of capital-light oligopolies. Enterprise AI adoption is slowing rather than accelerating, creating precarious dynamics where AI data center buildout holds up the economy but lack of downstream adoption makes it a potential financial time bomb. |
Data Centers CapEx Enterprise Software Hyperscalers Nvidia |
ValueQuality and value factors have declined roughly 20% year-to-date, creating meaningful headwinds. Half of the portfolio is trading at or near all-time low valuations. The market is strictly rewarding positive revenue revisions and punishing lack thereof, with valuation relegated to secondary consideration since May recovery. |
Small Caps Buybacks Cash Flows Multiples Undervalued | |
SoftwareSoftware companies, particularly smaller ones, are deemed secular losers by the market despite incumbent platforms holding distinct advantages over point solution startups. Software has suffered net revenue revisions of -5% to -7%, resulting in worst relative underperformance on record. The manager believes this creates opportunities in quality software names trading at deep discounts. |
SaaS Enterprise Software Revenue Growth Platforms CCaaS | |
ConcentrationMarket and hedge fund concentration has reached all-time high, with investors seeking refuge in 16 largest stocks comprising over 50% of total exposure. This concentration dynamic has contributed to factor underperformance and created opportunities in overlooked smaller companies with strong fundamentals. |
Market Concentration Large Cap Factor Performance Dispersion | |
FinTechFinTech companies face headwinds from regulatory concerns and growth deceleration fears. However, the manager sees opportunities in companies with strong global distribution networks and strategic value, particularly those trading at significant discounts to transaction comparables and benefiting from market share gains in international markets. |
Payments Digital Wallets Cross-border Regulatory Distribution | |
FitnessFitness franchise models showing strong unit economics with new studio vintages opening 27% higher revenue than previous vintages. Studios reaching maturity faster, opening near capacity without need for outsized growth in following years. This creates asymmetric risk/reward profiles despite market concerns about same-store sales deceleration. |
Franchising Unit Economics Same-store Sales Capacity Utilization | |
| 2025 Q2 |
AIAI presents both opportunities and threats across portfolio companies. Mega cap tech companies are pouring tens of billions into AI infrastructure with CapEx expected to reach $512B by 2027. Five9 faces AI disruption concerns in contact centers but is positioning as an AI winner through integration and automation capabilities. |
Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Automation Contact Centers Technology |
Small CapsSmall cap performance has significantly lagged large caps with a 7.3% performance gap over 10 years, the widest since 1935. Despite recent outflows and negative sentiment, profitable small caps appear reasonably valued at normal median multiples, presenting opportunities for selective investors. |
Small Cap Valuation Performance Outflows Opportunities | |
ValueThe fund maintains a value-oriented approach seeking stocks trading below intrinsic value. Portfolio holdings like GENI, CLBT, and FIVN trade at significant discounts to peers despite similar fundamentals, offering substantial upside potential when valuations normalize. |
Value Investing Discount Intrinsic Value Undervalued Upside | |
Sports BettingGenius Sports benefits from monopolistic data rights across sports leagues and rapid diversification into media solutions. The company secured exclusive NFL ad inventory through 2030 and expanded into European soccer, cementing its position as a leading sports data provider. |
Sports Data Betting Media NFL Monopoly | |
CybersecurityCellebrite provides digital forensics software to law enforcement globally with exceptionally strong margins above 90% for subscriptions. Despite federal budget timing issues affecting ARR, the company maintains pristine cash flow quality and operates in a protected duopoly market. |
Digital Forensics Law Enforcement Software Margins Duopoly | |
NuclearAecon Group's Nuclear business has grown TTM revenue 70% over 18 months, providing services for building, refurbishing, and maintaining nuclear facilities. The company is helping build the first grid-scale Small Modular Reactor in North America, positioning for nuclear renaissance themes. |
Nuclear Power SMR Infrastructure Energy Growth | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Small CapsSmall caps are priced for recession while mega caps trade at lofty multiples, creating a uniquely fertile opportunity set for long/short equity. YTD fund flows out of small caps have smashed all previous records, causing capital to be siphoned out mercilessly. This dichotomy creates compelling value opportunities in quality small cap names. |
Russell 2000 Valuation Flows Opportunity |
PaymentsFlywire represents a capital-light cross-border payments platform trading at a significant discount despite structural advantages in education, travel, and healthcare verticals. The company is successfully diversifying beyond international student payments into higher-value software contracts with better recurring revenue characteristics. |
Cross-border FinTech Software Education | |
Consumer ElectronicsSharkNinja demonstrates exceptional innovation and category creation capabilities, routinely generating consumer phenomena through viral product launches. The company is poised for margin expansion as it scales internationally and shifts toward higher-margin direct-to-consumer sales while successfully navigating tariff headwinds. |
Innovation Viral Marketing International Margins | |
Trade PolicyTariff policies have created significant market volatility and positioning challenges. SharkNinja has been preparing for years by diversifying manufacturing outside China, with 90% of US-bound production manufactured outside China by Q2 2025. The administration is expected to implement more growth-positive policies in the back half of the year. |
Tariffs Manufacturing China Supply Chain | |
ETFsETF flows and meme-ification have fundamentally changed market dynamics, with retail money beta chasing and driving indexes higher. The market has stopped punishing delusions and instead celebrates them, creating massive capital flows into mega caps while siphoning money from small caps. |
Flows Retail Beta Mega Caps | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueThe fund focuses on identifying undervalued securities trading at significant discounts to intrinsic value. The manager emphasizes valuation discipline as a core investment virtue and seeks idiosyncratic, value-oriented special situations amid market extremes. |
Undervalued Discount Intrinsic Discipline Special situations |
Biopharma M&AThe fund's main theme for 2025 is small cap M&A and special situations, driven by pent-up demand after two years of dismal deal flow. Three quick wins from acquisitions occurred year-to-date: SWI, CTS CN, and PLYA. |
Acquisitions Buyouts Deal flow Special situations Takeovers | |
Small CapsThe manager notes that small caps keep struggling to maintain alpha, but sees opportunities in the space. The fund maintains focus on small cap M&A and special situations as a key investment theme. |
Russell 2000 Alpha Underperformance Opportunities Special situations | |
| 2024 Q3 |
Electric VehiclesManager believes EV penetration estimates are too optimistic, with BEV market flatlining in US and China and declining in Europe. Consumer surveys show growing disinterest in BEVs, leading to substantial discounts and bloated inventory. This creates opportunities for ICE-focused suppliers like Phinia. |
BEV ICE Auto Penetration Transition |
Auto PartsPhinia operates as an auto parts supplier with two businesses: Fuel Systems (OEM supplier) and Aftermarket products. The company is positioned to benefit from competitive dynamics and market share gains in niche markets, particularly in Gasoline Direct Injection technology. |
Suppliers OEM Aftermarket GDI Components | |
ValueManager emphasizes valuation discipline amid market euphoria, noting S&P 500 in 97th percentile of historical valuations. Many small cap stocks are trading below private market value and would benefit from going private, with M&A activity at 30-year lows creating opportunities. |
Discipline Private Market M&A Multiples Inefficiency | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Theme ParksUnited Parks & Resorts (PRKS) represents an opportunity in the deeply out-of-favor travel & leisure sector. The company has improved EBITDA margins from 29.2% in 2018 to 41.3% on a TTM basis under Hill Path Capital's leadership. Despite operational improvements, shares trade at only 6.8x 2025 EBITDA versus historical double-digit multiples. |
Theme Parks Travel Entertainment EBITDA Valuation |
Small CapsSmall caps are being driven by economic variables like economic surprises, USD, 10-year treasury yield, and corporate credit spreads to an exaggerated degree compared to pre-2020. Any lessening of this belief will give small caps room to run, especially as mega cap tech earnings growth rates slow while the rest of the market inflects higher. |
Small Caps Valuation Rates Economic Outperformance | |
RatesFed rate cuts are expected with Powell confirming the time has come for cuts. Historically, small caps have outperformed following rate cuts, with a 15.6% outperformance by Russell 2000 over Nasdaq from July 9th through July 31st following dovish Fed comments. Rate-sensitive consumer discretionary markets have already undergone severe corrections. |
Rates Fed Small Caps Consumer Monetary Policy | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Small CapsManager maintains concentrated exposure to cheap small caps despite underperformance relative to mega cap tech. Small caps are more exposed to rates and have not yet found sustained propulsion, but with rate stability expected M&A activity to continue recovering from multi-decade lows. |
Small Cap Valuations M&A Rates |
AICloud infrastructure and data center related capex boom driven by AI dreams as companies scramble to figure out how to use AI to save or make money. If companies cannot figure out how to make or save tens of billions from AI-related CapEx soon, current levels seem unsustainable. |
Data Centers Cloud CapEx Infrastructure | |
Sports BettingGenius Sports positioned to benefit from increased sports betting legalization and growth of in-game betting in the US. In-game betting comprises 25-30% of US football bets versus 80%+ in mature UK soccer market, with GENI's take rate 3x higher on in-game versus pre-game bets. |
Sports Betting In-Game Betting Data Rights NFL | |
| 2023 Q4 |
Small CapsManager remains heavily positioned in small cap cyclicals including homebuilders, construction materials, and heavy construction equipment. Small caps are expected to benefit disproportionately from Fed rate cuts and money market fund outflows. Small caps trade at low percentile of historical valuations versus large caps with 24% EPS growth estimated for 2024. |
Russell 2000 Cyclicals Valuations Rate Cuts Earnings Growth |
HomebuildersHousing shortage continues with velocity of existing home transactions hitting 40-year lows due to mortgage rate lock-in effects. Housing starts have lagged household formations for 10 consecutive years while peak homebuying demographics support demand. R&R spending remains resilient despite rate headwinds. |
Housing Shortage Demographics Mortgage Rates Construction R&R | |
Healthcare ITNew core position in R1 RCM, a leader in outsourced revenue cycle management with only 30% market penetration. Company offers substantial savings through regional labor arbitrage and automation technology. Management utilizing AI and machine learning to drive efficiency improvements and margin expansion. |
Revenue Cycle Automation AI Healthcare Outsourcing | |
| 2023 Q3 |
Infrastructure SpendingCRH positioned as major beneficiary of unprecedented government infrastructure programs including IIJA, CHIPS, and IRA. Highway funding alone increases 50% above baseline, with CRH being the #1 road paver. Manufacturing onshoring creates $200B+ in mega projects through 2030. |
IIJA CHIPS Highway Manufacturing Onshoring |
HomebuildersNew homebuilders thriving despite higher rates due to mortgage lock-in effect keeping existing home inventory low. New single-family starts need to rise 15% just to reach historical averages, with population 100+ million higher than 1985-2001 period. |
Mortgage Housing Construction Inventory Demographics | |
Building MaterialsCRH operates in aggregates with local monopoly characteristics due to transportation costs. Company has largest reserves in North America at 19B tons. Cement capacity constrained by environmental regulations while demand exceeds domestic supply. |
Aggregates Cement Reserves Transportation Capacity | |
Small CapsSmall cap bear market ranks 3rd worst by duration and 4th worst by magnitude in 40+ years. Russell 2000 down 33% from peak and 6% below August 2018 levels. Historically, small caps higher 99% of time over rolling 6-year periods. |
Russell Valuation Duration Historical Cycles | |
| 2023 Q2 |
FinTechFinTech stocks are noticeably out of favor on Wall Street, especially post-SIVB bank failure and financial sector scare, with many hitting 10-year or all-time lows. The fund sees this as creating attractive relative valuations and opportunities in the space. They have been buying Nashville-based i3 Verticals as a software and payment solutions provider that is transitioning from a payments company to a majority software company. |
Payments Software Valuations Banking SaaS |
ValueThe fund emphasizes their value-oriented approach with a current weighted average free cash flow yield on their long portfolio of over 12.5%, which is more than 8% greater than the 10-year treasury yield. They believe their stocks have effectively wrung out a lot of risks and have strong valuation support. The manager notes that growth has significantly outperformed value, representing a 98th percentile performance differential that creates headwinds but also future opportunities. |
Free Cash Flow Valuations Treasury Yield Growth Outperformance | |
| 2023 Q1 |
TravelPLYA benefits from a boom in consumer travel to start 2023, particularly skewed toward Mexico and budget-friendly all-inclusive resorts. Airport traffic numbers for key locations show strong passenger traffic growth compared to 2019 and 2022. |
Hotels Mexico All-inclusive Tourism Recovery |
Specialty FinanceECN Capital operates as a financial services company originating loans for manufactured housing and RV/Marine industries. The company benefits from housing affordability crisis driving demand for manufactured homes and has initiated a strategic review process with Goldman Sachs. |
Loan Origination Manufactured Housing RV Marine Strategic Review | |
Credit StressRegional bank lending slowdown following Silicon Valley Bank failure creates headwinds for small-cap cyclical stocks. SLOOS data shows 46% of bankers tightening credit standards, implying potential 7.2% decline in C&I bank loans by Q1 2024. |
Regional Banks Credit Tightening SLOOS Bank Lending Silicon Valley Bank |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 28, 2026 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | SRE | Sempra Energy | Other | Multi-Utilities | Bull | - | California, Distribution, Electric, growth, infrastructure, natural gas, Rate Base, Regulated, spin-off, Texas, Transmission, utilities, value unlock, Wildfire | Login |
| Jan 6, 2026 | — | Pratik Kodial | CVNA | Carvana Co. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Retail | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | 19413, 21288, 21334, 21539, 36660 | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide Inc | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | ATMs, buybacks, Catalysts, Fintech, guidance, Margins, Networks, Payments, Remittances, valuation | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | XPOF | Xponential Fitness Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | NYSE | cashflow, Comps, EBITDA, Fitness, Franchising, Leisure, Maturation, Privateequity, Refinancing, valuation | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | PRKS | United Parks & Resorts Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, cashflow, Competition, EBITDA, Leisure, leverage, Pricing, Privatization, Themeparks, Tourism | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | FLYW | Flywire Corp | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | B2b, Education, growth, healthcare, Margins, Payments, Software, takeover, Travel, valuation | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | CLBT | Cellebrite DI Ltd | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Activism, cashflow, cybersecurity, Forensics, growth, Intelligence, M&A, Margins, Platforms, Software | Login |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | GENI | Genius Sports Limited | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | advertising, AI, Margins, media, rights, Sportsdata, valuation | Login |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | CLBT | Cellebrite DI Ltd. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | cashflow, Digitalforensics, Government, Margins, Recurring, Security, Software | Login |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | ECN | ECN Capital Corp. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Catalysts, Finance, Housing, Lending, Margins, Servicing, valuation | Login |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | PHIN | Phinia Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automotive Parts | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | aftermarket, automotive, buybacks, cashflow, Cyclicality, valuation | Login |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | PRKS | United Parks & Resorts Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | buybacks, Leisure, Margins, realestate, Themeparks, valuation | Login |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | ARE CN | Aecon Group Inc. | Industrials | Construction & Engineering | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | construction, infrastructure, Nuclear, Smrs, utilities, valuation | Login |
| Aug 22, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | FIVN | Five9, Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Automation, Contactcenter, Margins, Software, valuation | Login |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | FLYW | Flywire Corporation | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Australia, Canada, Cross Border Payments, education technology, Equity, Fintech, growth, healthcare, SaaS, Travel, turnaround, UK | Login |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | SN | SharkNinja Operating LLC | Consumer Discretionary | Household Appliances | Bull | NYSE | Brand, Brazil, Consumer Appliances, direct-to-consumer, Equity, france, Germany, growth, innovation, international expansion, Mexico, Social Media Marketing, tariffs | Login |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide Inc | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | ATM, Cross-Border, Fintech, money transfer, Payments, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | MBGYY | Mercedes-Benz Group AG | Consumer Discretionary | Automobile Manufacturers | Bull | OTC | automotive, Autonomous, capital return, Europe, Luxury, technology, Value | Login |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | FUJHY | Subaru Corporation | Consumer Discretionary | Automobile Manufacturers | Bull | OTC | automotive, capital return, cash-rich, defensive, Japanese, Toyota, Value | Login |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | AMTM | Amentum Holdings Inc | Industrials | Research & Consulting Services | Bull | NYSE | backlog, Defense, deleveraging, Government Services, merger, spin-off, Value | Login |
| Nov 26, 2024 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | PHIN | Phinia Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Auto Parts & Equipment | Bull | NASDAQ | aftermarket, Auto parts, commercial vehicles, Fuel Systems, GDI Technology, ICE, market share gains, Share Buybacks, spin-off, Value | Login |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | PRKS | United Parks & Resorts | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | NYSE | Consumer Discretionary, contrarian, entertainment, Florida, Leisure, private equity, Real Estate, theme parks, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | AAGFF | Griffon Corp. | Industrials | Building Products | Bull | NYSE | Activist Investment, Building Products, capital returns, EBITDA margins, Garage Doors, manufacturing, Repair and Remodeling, Share Buybacks, special dividends, value creation | Login |
| Feb 27, 2024 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | BRCM | R1 RCM Inc. | Health Care | Health Care Technology | Bull | NASDAQ | Artificial Intelligence, Automation, Contrarian Investment, Data Analytics, Healthcare IT, Healthcare Technology, Hospital Outsourcing, machine learning, network effects, Revenue Cycle Management | Login |
| Aug 23, 2023 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | IIIV | i3 Verticals, Inc. | Information Technology | Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Fintech, healthcare, M&A, payment processing, public sector, recurring revenue, SaaS, Software, transformation, Value | Login |
| May 16, 2023 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | PLYA | Playa Hotels and Resorts | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | Bull | NASDAQ | All-Inclusive Resorts, Asset Optimization, brand partnerships, Caribbean, EBITDA multiple, hospitality, Mexico, post-COVID recovery, Tourism, Travel Recovery | Login |
| May 16, 2023 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | ASO | Academy Sports and Outdoors | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | Demographics, Distribution Centers, Free Cash Flow, Geographic Expansion, retail expansion, ROIC, Southern Markets, Specialty retail, Sporting goods, Store Profitability | Login |
| May 16, 2023 | Fund Letters | Voss Value Fund | ECN.TO | ECN Capital | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | TSX | Canada, fee income, housing affordability, loan origination, M&A Target, Manufactured housing, Non-Recourse, RV Marine, Specialty finance, strategic review | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| RXT | We have initiated a small position in Rackspace Technology (RXT), a global managed service provider in both public and private cloud. RXT represents a classic high-leverage stub stock turnaround situation: a ~$900 million equity market cap ($3.42/share) resting atop a ~$3.8 billion enterprise value. The company carries ~$2.7 billion in net debt. We think majority owner Apollo's ~51% stake, with an estimated ~$8.50/share cost basis, keeps management firmly aligned with minority equity holders. As neoclouds like Nebius and CoreWeave garner attention as they scramble to build out new state-of-the-art data centers, Rackspace is in a unique position in that they already own or lease (long term, 15+ year contracts) a large data center footprint that has substantial unutilized capacity. In fact, you need only go back just a few years when their data center utilization was higher, and the company was generating over $800 million in run rate EBITDA, a number that will likely be under $300 million in 2026 due to high fixed costs. In our opinion, our confidence that they can move back much closer to that $800 million EBITDA level over the next 18-24 months is based on three factors: Whereas their Private Cloud business had been losing customers to Public Cloud, Sovereign AI has slowed and even reversed that trend as customers realize their data is a strategic asset that must be secured and strategically stored, especially in the industries Rackspace is known for serving (hospital systems, financial organizations, and governments). For the first time in years, they are guiding to growth in their Private Cloud business in 2026, something we expect to significantly accelerate in 2027. New management is going all in strategically on AI infrastructure and positioning Rackspace as the experts that will guide corporations on best practices in building (or rebuilding) their technological infrastructure in the age of AI. The recent AMD agreement whereby Rackspace will deploy 30 Megawatts of compute with AMD chips is the real potential gamechanger. This gives Rackspace a strategic compute partner with access to the chips needed to add an AI inference layer to their service offerings. We estimate that once fully deployed, this opportunity can produce an incremental $500-600 million in revenue and $250-$400 million in EBITDA, with potential optionality to expand beyond the initial 30 Megawatt agreement. The first clear tangible evidence of this turnaround also showed up in Q2 2026, as total Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) exploded 40% sequentially to $809.1 million, driven by a surge in Long-Term RPO to $623.0 million (nearly doubling YoY). To be clear, RXT remains a high-wire act, and we have sized this position accordingly (~2%). Because of the high financial leverage, the equity behaves like a long-dated call option. If liquidity breaks or execution falters, it could face severe dilution (with an open ATM adding to Bear fodder), but if RXT successfully converts its massive idle data center capacity and surging RPOs into $500-800 million+ of run-rate EBITDA within two years, it is possible that a reasonable 10x multiple (compared to some peers at 25-30x) can lead to an $11-$15 stock with feasible blue-sky scenarios pushing to $20-$30+. |
| VGNT | In a market obsessively chasing wannabe interplanetary enterprises and shiny new technologies set to transform the world, TGH has driven Aptiv's April fool's day spin-off to the junk yard, as if it were a burnt-up Pinto. Even after a sizeable rally, VGNT is priced as if it manufactures buggy whips on the eve of the Model T rumbling down the assembly line. The stock trades at roughly 5.0x EV/EBITDA and ~6.0x forward earnings. Clouded in the spin-off effluvium lies an entrenched global oligopolist with a kung fu grip on high-complexity automotive wiring market. These wires can be thought of as the circulatory and nervous system of a vehicle, as it transmits power, data, and signals to the ever increasing number of components within the car. Versigent sells ~$750 worth of wire harness content per vehicle. Furthermore, the average hybrid vehicle has ~1.5x the content as an ICE vehicle and a battery electric vehicle has ~1.7x the content. Alongside a handful of other companies, VGNT forms a tight global oligopoly of wire harness manufacturers. The company has ~16% total market share, with content in 1 of every 6 vehicles globally and ~33% share in EV/hybrid platforms while counting nine of the world's ten largest OEMs as customers. Its proprietary iHarness software suite augments the company's ability and desire to deliberately chase the most complex, high-voltage, unique auto architectures rather than commoditized volume. VGNT now co-designs over 75% of the harnesses it manufactures and extracts nearly double the profit margins of legacy peers. Winning Ferrari's sole supplier Excellence Award in 2026 confirms that high-end engineering rather than commoditized pricing characterizes VGNT's deeply entrenched OEM relationships. The company has more planned program launches this year than any year in its history, with 39 launched in Q2. With a conservative $1.0 billion+ in cumulative FCF projected across 2026–2028 (~30% of its current market cap), a shareholder friendly capital return framework has already been established with a newly initiated dividend and a $250M buyback authorization in place. Our Base Case price target of $83.00 (at 7.0x EBITDA and 9.9x P/E) offers ~78% upside to today's price. |
| HILS.L | Hill & Smith is kind of like the inverse of Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood—a brilliant British export flawlessly masquerading as an American industrialist. With ~84% of operating income generated in the US in the first half of the year, HILS is an extraordinary red-blooded American business acting as a sleepy UK-listed metal-bender. At the time of purchase, the shares were trading at a striking discount to their US listed peer group: ~8.7x NTM EBITDA compared to AZZ at 11.3x EV/EBITDA and VMI at 11.8x. Electrical grid infrastructure now represents 24% of total group revenues, anchored by V&S Utilities (substation structures), which reported record order backlogs and double-digit growth. Data center exposure has risen to 9% of total revenue, bolstered by recent bolt-on acquisition Freeberg, a custom enclosure specialist that derives 50% of its sales directly from data center builds. HILS management is pruning the underperforming UK segment, shifting corporate financial reporting to USD from GBP in 2026, and reallocating capital into high-return US capacity expansions. Despite a temporary working capital build in H1 to fund US growth, the business remains a cash generating machine with a clean balance sheet at only 0.4x Net Debt/EBITDA while generating a high-20s % ROIC. Management is putting this balance sheet to work via disciplined bolt-on's at 7-10x EBIT and an active £100m share buyback program. HILS delivered a clean beat-and-raise quarter in Q2. We think this will be a trend as current consensus revenue growth estimates will prove conservative in the coming years. Accumulating a stake in a high-ROIC US grid and infrastructure compounder off London's discount rack is the kind of opportunity that gets our value-oriented special situation juices flowing. |
| DLG.MI | On the back of a successful investment in SharkNinja, we are recycling some capital and into another underappreciated consumer growth story, DLG. Based out of Milan, De'Longhi is the #1 espresso machine producer in the world that the market is valuing like a mid-quality European appliance maker despite a significant mix shift toward the higher-quality, higher-margin professional and prosumer coffee business. The company has a roughly €5.9bn market cap, ~€687mm of net cash, and trades around ~8x EBITDA versus a historical median of ~9x, despite consistently high ROCE around ~30%, robust FCF generation, and strategically aligned De'Longhi family ownership of ~54%. Between organic growth and some savvy strategic acquisitions, coffee (across home and commercial end markets) now represents ~70% of DLG's revenue, up from 56% in 2022 and near zero 25 years ago. Within coffee, De'Longhi has built leading positions across the home and commercial espresso machine markets with the De'Longhi brand (home), La Marzocco (semi-automatic prosumer and commercial), and Eversys (fully automatic commercial). The Professional Coffee segment, which includes La Marzocco and Eversys, is only 18% of revenue but contributes 34% of EBITDA (as of 1H 2026) as it carries ~30% EBITDA margins, and is growing materially faster than the company overall, posting its 5th consecutive quarter of 30%+ y/y revenue growth with Q2 2026 growth of 33%, an acceleration to 86% growth on a two-year basis. Two U.S. customers alone — Dutch Bros (~1,000 planned new stores through 2029) and Blackstone-backed 7 Brew (2,500+ locations under development agreements) — equip every location with two to three La Marzocco machines. That's 3,000+ new stores over the next few years across just two accounts. At 8x 2026 EBITDA, De'Longhi trades at a ~50% valuation discount to premium consumer appliance peers such as SharkNinja and Australian company, Breville, at 17.5x and 15.5x NTM EBITDA, respectively. The controlling De'Longhi family owns ~53.5% of the overall company, but crucially, they hold a direct 26.5% stake in the Professional Coffee Hub via a separate holding entity, thus directly aligning the family's interest with DLG shareholders in unlocking the value of the Pro Coffee business. |
| PLTR | For instance, a strategic partnership with Palantir (who took a small stake in Rackspace recently) is a joint initiative whereby Rackspace and Palantir work in tandem to hand-hold customers in developing their AI strategy with Palantir providing their Foundry and AI Platform (AIP), with Rackspace providing the cloud backbone and jointly trained Forward Deployed Engineers (FDEs). |
| AMD | The recent AMD agreement whereby Rackspace will deploy 30 Megawatts of compute with AMD chips is the real potential gamechanger. This gives Rackspace a strategic compute partner with access to the chips needed to add an AI inference layer to their service offerings. We estimate that once fully deployed, this opportunity can produce an incremental $500-600 million in revenue and $250-$400 million in EBITDA, with potential optionality to expand beyond the initial 30 Megawatt agreement. |
| SN | On the back of a successful investment in SharkNinja, we are recycling some capital and into another underappreciated consumer growth story, DLG. |
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