| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 14.6% | -2.2% | -4.4% |
Voss Value Fund returned -2.1% in Q4 2025, underperforming benchmarks due to significant software overweight amid AI-driven market hysteria. The manager argues that while AI emergence has caused broad software sell-offs, incumbents with domain expertise and proprietary data are better positioned than the market believes. Key holdings include PAR Technology in restaurant POS systems, Cellebrite in digital forensics with significant moats, and Flywire in complex payment verticals trading at substantial discounts to peers. New position Choice Hotels represents an asset-light hotel franchisor at historically low valuations with multiple re-rating catalysts including international expansion and potential $700 million cash unlock for share buybacks. The portfolio's software concentration has prevented capitalizing on the anticipated rotation to small cap value, creating a notable performance gap. Despite recent headwinds, the manager maintains conviction in value-oriented special situations, believing software incumbents will successfully integrate AI capabilities while traditional value opportunities offer compelling risk-adjusted returns at current valuations.
Software incumbents with proprietary data and domain expertise are well-positioned to integrate AI capabilities and defend market positions despite current market hysteria, while select value opportunities like Choice Hotels offer significant upside at historically low valuations.
The manager acknowledges being caught in a difficult position between cutting-edge technology and traditional value investments, missing the recent broadening to small cap value. They maintain conviction in their software holdings despite near-term headwinds, believing incumbents with domain expertise will successfully integrate AI capabilities. The approach remains focused on value-oriented special situations within a principled investing framework.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4 2026 | Q4 2025 | CHH, CLBT, FLYW, PAR | AI, Franchising, Hotels, small cap, software, technology, value | - | AI emergence has created market hysteria and broad software sell-offs despite limited real-world automation success. The manager believes software incumbents with domain expertise and proprietary… |
| Nov 25 2025 | 2025 Q3 | CLBT, EEFT, FIVN, FLYW, PRKS, XPOF | CashFlow, momentum, revisions, underperformance, value |
FIVN EEFT XPOF PRKS FLYW CLBT |
Same themes as the onshore fund: severe factor divergence, mispriced durable cash-flow businesses, and opportunities created by market overreactions to decelerating revenue. The fund stresses… |
| Aug 22 2025 | 2025 Q2 | ARE CN, CLBT, ECN CN, FIVN, GENI, PHIN, PRKS | contrarian, deep value, International Equities, Margin Of Safety, mispricing | - | The letter emphasizes global deep value investing, particularly in small and mid-cap international equities. Management highlights fear-driven selloffs and structural neglect as sources of opportunity.… |
| Jun 4 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Feb 19 2025 | 2024 Q4 | 7270 JP, AMTM, CTS CN, EEFT, MBG GR, PLYA, SWI | - | - | - |
| Nov 26 2024 | 2024 Q3 | PHIN | - | - | - |
| Aug 26 2024 | 2024 Q2 | PRKS | - | - | - |
| Jun 8 2024 | 2024 Q1 | ALTG, GENI, IMXI, PAR, RCM, RTO, SLCA, SWI | - | - | - |
| Feb 27 2024 | 2023 Q4 | GFF, RCM | - | - | - |
| Jun 11 2023 | 2023 Q3 | CRH, CROX, ECN CN | - | - | - |
| Aug 23 2023 | 2023 Q2 | IIIV, TYL | - | - | - |
| May 16 2023 | 2023 Q1 | ASO, ECN CN, PLYA | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2025 |
AIThe extended federal government shutdown added volatility during what was otherwise a risk-on environment, with a mid-quarter shift in market behavior for AI-related equities as the exuberant narrative evolved to one more balanced in assessing the technology's enormous potential against staggering capital spending plans and high expectations. The team initiated a position in Credo Technology as a more diversified way to gain exposure to strong trends in AI-connectivity. |
Connectivity Semiconductors Infrastructure Capital Spending |
HotelsChoice Hotels represents asset-light, high-margin hotel franchisor trading at distressed multiples due to cyclical headwinds. Company shifting portfolio toward higher-revenue segments including Extended Stay and international expansion. Significant cash unlock potential from balance sheet optimization could enable opportunistic share buybacks at historically low valuations. |
Hospitality Franchising Extended Stay International Capital | |
Software |
||
| 2025 Q3 |
ValueThe manager continues to find attractive value opportunities despite expensive markets, purchasing undervalued companies like Centene, GlaxoSmithKline, Carrefour and PayPal trading at low multiples with strong fundamentals. |
Undervalued Low Multiples Contrarian Opportunistic |
| 2025 Q2 |
ValueThe fund emphasizes being 'value aware' and focuses on finding rare cases where both quality and value intersect. They regularly search the 52-week low list for potential opportunities rather than momentum plays. The managers believe the investment community is casting its gaze away from various market constituents that offer asymmetric risk-reward for those willing to look forward three to five years. |
Value investing Quality Asymmetric risk 52-week lows Price discipline |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | FIVN | Five9 Inc | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Activism, AI, buybacks, cloud, Communications, consolidation, Margins, Software, Subscriptions, valuation | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | EEFT | Euronet Worldwide Inc | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | ATMs, buybacks, Catalysts, Fintech, guidance, Margins, Networks, Payments, Remittances, valuation | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | XPOF | Xponential Fitness Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | NYSE | cashflow, Comps, EBITDA, Fitness, Franchising, Leisure, Maturation, Privateequity, Refinancing, valuation | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | PRKS | United Parks & Resorts Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Leisure Facilities | Bull | NYSE | buybacks, cashflow, Competition, EBITDA, Leisure, leverage, Pricing, Privatization, Themeparks, Tourism | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | FLYW | Flywire Corp | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | B2b, Education, growth, healthcare, Margins, Payments, Software, takeover, Travel, valuation | Login |
| Nov 25, 2025 | Fund Letters | Travis Cocke | CLBT | Cellebrite DI Ltd | Information Technology | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | Activism, cashflow, cybersecurity, Forensics, growth, Intelligence, M&A, Margins, Platforms, Software | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| CHH | CHH is an asset-light, high-margin (60%+ EBITDA margin on revenue ex-pass-through costs) hotel franchisor trading at a distressed multiple due to cyclical top-line headwinds and KPI deterioration experienced in 2025, namely U.S. RevPAR declines and lack of U.S. room growth. The market has severely punished the stock—down from $154 in early 2025 to $106 today—now pricing in structural decline fears. However, the business is still growing earnings, is highly cash-generative, and may have the ability to unlock a significant amount of cash on the balance sheet to buy back shares at these historically low levels. CHH is currently trading around the bottom 2.5% of its historical valuation range over the past ten years at 10.7x EBITDA. If the stock reverts to its 20-year median valuation of 14x forward EBITDA (which would still be a 3-6x EBITDA discount to Hyatt, Hilton, and Marriott), the stock has ~50% upside. |
| CLBT | On core long Cellebrite's digital forensics turf, there are several major barriers to entry, and the software itself could be considered the least of them. Cellebrite is a hardware-enabled software solution that has become both a verb (to "Cellebrite" a device) and a noun (create a Cellebrite report) for its users across the globe. A defensible moat for CLBT has been its exploit library. CLBT's device unlock and extraction capability requires: Zero-day and N-day exploits for iOS and Android (often acquired from the vulnerability market or developed in-house), Hardware interposers and chip-off capabilities for physically damaged devices, Bootloader exploits that survive OS updates, Maintaining extraction support across tens of thousands of device models and firmware versions. This is expensive and requires ongoing R&D. Furthermore, with increased scrutiny on software company cash flows excluding stock based comp, CLBT "stands up" on an Enterprise Value/Free Cash Flow ex-SBC multiple (13.1x '27E), such that it is now at a >60% discount to the broader market and significantly cheaper than almost any small cap industrial stock we evaluate despite having a massive net cash position (as opposed to leverage), ~20% growth (as opposed to limited/cyclical growth) and 34% FCF margins. |
| FLYW | Our largest position remains Flywire (FLYW). Operating at the intersection of payments and software, FLYW targets high-value, complex verticals—such as healthcare, education, and travel—where payments are deeply entangled with core workflows, receivables, reconciliation, and compliance. The company has dredged a formidable moat by building global payment capabilities through localized banking relationships and rails in practically every country. Because FLYW is so deeply embedded into hospital billing systems, university ERPs, and travel back-office tools, the switching costs are immense. Over 80% of FLYW's revenue comes from processing fees (FX spreads and cross-border fees) rather than software. Despite this deep entrenchment and rapid scaling, a massive valuation disconnect exists. Competitors with a fraction of FLYW's growth are being acquired at mid-to-high teens EBITDA multiples, whereas FLYW trades at just a 6x multiple on 2027 consensus EBITDA estimates. |
| PAR | Software has always been a hyper-competitive industry teeming with well-funded start-ups. Consider PAR Technology's niche in restaurant point-of-sale (POS). Despite facing over 6,000 global competitors—including countless "free" alternatives requiring no subscription—PAR consistently wins mandates from Tier-1 restaurant chains. A prime example is their newly announced deal with Papa John's, which abandoned its in-house software to migrate to PAR. This dynamic runs 180° counter to the prevailing market narrative. AI will undoubtedly turn up the heat on this already intense global competition, but it will also accelerate PAR's product velocity, broaden its capabilities, and vastly expand its TAM. Ultimately, the endgame for incumbents is unlikely to be the race to zero gross margins that so many software skeptics are predicting. |
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