| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 0.8% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 0.8% |
Warden Capital posted flat 0.8% net returns in 2025 versus 17% for the S&P 500, driven by defensive positioning with a large short book and value-oriented investments that underperformed during continued market euphoria. The manager maintains conviction in current positioning, believing AI capex is unsustainable and the bubble will burst when model progress or revenue growth slows. Key holdings include Vail Resorts, purchased around $148 but now trading at $133, which the manager views as owning irreplaceable ski resort assets at attractive valuations. Alexandria Real Estate represents a bet on biotech sector recovery as the largest life sciences landlord trading at oversold levels. The portfolio also includes uniQure, a biotech with promising Huntington's disease gene therapy that showed 75% reduction in disease progression but faced FDA setbacks. Despite poor recent performance, the manager feels optimistic about portfolio positioning and expects significant upside as market conditions normalize and defensive positioning pays off.
Manager maintains defensive positioning with significant short exposure betting against AI bubble while investing in undervalued assets like Vail Resorts, Alexandria Real Estate, and uniQure biotech that offer compelling risk-adjusted returns.
Manager feels very optimistic about portfolio positioning and expects AI hype to burst by 2027 if not 2026. Believes there is significant value and potential upside in current holdings despite recent underperformance.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ARE, MTN, PLD, PLTR, QURE | AI, Biotechnology, Commercial real estate, Defensive, Shorts, value |
MTN ARE PLTR QURE |
Manager believes AI capex is at unsustainable levels and won't generate economic returns unless true AGI emerges imminently. OpenAI's user growth appears to be stalling with weak Q4 traffic growth, while competitors like Gemini continue growing strongly. Model progress may be reaching diminishing returns as current state-of-the-art models are not universally better than previous versions. CRE markets show little major change from previous commentary. Apartments remain soft due to oversupply and weaker sunbelt demand, industrial has picked up slightly, office is weak outside NYC but improving in class A, retail continues doing well due to lack of new supply, and hospitality is softer than expected. Manager invested in uniQure, a biotech with potential groundbreaking gene therapy for Huntington's disease. Initial results showed disease progression slowing by 75% three years after treatment, but FDA rescinded agreement on external control group causing stock to crash. Manager believes therapy will ultimately get approved given strong efficacy data. |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | NVDA, PLYM | Artificial Intelligence, Housing, Market Bubble, Quantum Computing, Recession |
NVDA QUBT |
The letter warns of a full-blown market mania driven by excessive AI capex and speculative tech valuations. The fund is heavily defensive, expecting the bubble to unwind as growth slows and housing softens. Quantum computing and AI are viewed as overvalued sectors ripe for correction. |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | PLTR, SPWH | Capital Allocation, Compounding, Concentration, Long-Term Growth, Management Quality |
SPWH PLTR |
The letter stresses owning a concentrated set of businesses capable of compounding intrinsic value over long periods. Emphasis is placed on management quality, reinvestment opportunities, and long runways for growth. Short-term macro noise is viewed as largely irrelevant to long-term outcomes. |
| Jan 15 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 16 2022 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 20 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 18 2024 | 2023 Q4 | MAC, NXRT, NYC, PK, PLD, VNO | - | - | |
| Oct 17 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 21 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
BiotechnologyHealthcare industry positioned for catch-up growth after several years of below-trend performance. Government spending expected to increase relative to feared cuts, with companies signaling improvement in revenue growth. Focus on 'picks & shovels' businesses serving the industry. |
Life Science Tools Pharmaceuticals CRO & CDMO Healthcare Research | |
Real EstateReal Estate segment benefited from property transfers from the Automotive segment, including assumption of tenant operating leases. The segment includes investment properties with land, retail, office and industrial properties leased to corporate tenants. |
Commercial Real Estate Property Management Industrial REITs | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Housing Weakness |
|
Quantum Computing |
||
| 2025 Q2 |
Compounding |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | growth, Hedging, Multiples, Software, valuation | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | MTN | Vail Resorts, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | assets, Ski, Tourism, valuation, Weather | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Real Estate | Health Care REITs | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Biotech, Caprates, Life-science, Oversupply, REITs | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Downside, Hedge, Software, valuation | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | QURE | uniQure N.V. | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, clinical data, gene therapy, Optionality, Regulation | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bear | NASDAQ | AI, Bubble, CapEx, semiconductors, Speculation, valuation | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | QUBT | Quantum Computing Inc. | Information Technology | Quantum Computing Hardware | Bear | NASDAQ | Bubble, Quantum Computing, Short, Speculation, technology, valuation | Login |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | SPWH | Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Neutral | NASDAQ | Firearms, Margins, retail, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ARE | Worst for the quarter was Alexandria Real Estate Inc. (ARE) at -39%, as the depth and duration of the valley for biotech real estate appeared to be expanding, and the company signaled a potential dividend cut, which is at odds with our Fund's objective. Subsequent to our sale, the company cut its dividend by 45%. |
| MTN | Vail Resorts operates mountain resorts and ski lodging, with the majority of revenue derived from US properties. It probably goes without saying that one can't ski without snow. Unfavorable weather conditions throughout 2025 dragged on visitations and skier spending. In addition, rising labor and operational costs have further pressured margins, and management has failed to reassure investors. We believe that Vail's challenges are more cyclical than structural, and if/when snowfall averages revert, an undemanding valuation could help underpin an increase in the stock price. |
| PLD | Best-in-class industrial REIT Prologis, Inc. contributed positively to performance during the fourth quarter, aided by the company's strong third quarter financial report, coupled with management's robust multi-year business outlook. We continue to believe the appreciation potential for Prologis' shares remains compelling given the strong runway for future cash flow and earnings growth in the next several years and an undemanding valuation. |
| PLTR | The top three contributors to this outperformance came from Palantir Technologies (US Defense) |
| QURE | The FDA walking back on QURE approval after mixed data made me roundtrip the profits of that position. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
