| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | 0.8% |
| 2025 |
|---|
| 0.8% |
Warden Capital posted flat 0.8% net returns in 2025 versus 17% for the S&P 500, driven by defensive positioning with a large short book and value-oriented investments that underperformed during continued market euphoria. The manager maintains conviction in current positioning, believing AI capex is unsustainable and the bubble will burst when model progress or revenue growth slows. Key holdings include Vail Resorts, purchased around $148 but now trading at $133, which the manager views as owning irreplaceable ski resort assets at attractive valuations. Alexandria Real Estate represents a bet on biotech sector recovery as the largest life sciences landlord trading at oversold levels. The portfolio also includes uniQure, a biotech with promising Huntington's disease gene therapy that showed 75% reduction in disease progression but faced FDA setbacks. Despite poor recent performance, the manager feels optimistic about portfolio positioning and expects significant upside as market conditions normalize and defensive positioning pays off.
Manager maintains defensive positioning with significant short exposure betting against AI bubble while investing in undervalued assets like Vail Resorts, Alexandria Real Estate, and uniQure biotech that offer compelling risk-adjusted returns.
Manager feels very optimistic about portfolio positioning and expects AI hype to burst by 2027 if not 2026. Believes there is significant value and potential upside in current holdings despite recent underperformance.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | ARE, MTN, PLD, PLTR, QURE | AI, Biotechnology, Commercial real estate, Defensive, Shorts, value |
MTN ARE PLTR QURE |
Manager believes AI capex is at unsustainable levels and won't generate economic returns unless true AGI emerges imminently. OpenAI's user growth appears to be stalling… |
| Oct 14 2025 | 2025 Q3 | NVDA, PLYM | Artificial Intelligence, Housing, Market Bubble, Quantum Computing, Recession |
NVDA QUBT |
The letter warns of a full-blown market mania driven by excessive AI capex and speculative tech valuations. The fund is heavily defensive, expecting the bubble… |
| Jul 8 2025 | 2025 Q2 | PLTR, SPWH | Capital Allocation, Compounding, Concentration, Long-Term Growth, Management Quality |
SPWH PLTR |
The letter stresses owning a concentrated set of businesses capable of compounding intrinsic value over long periods. Emphasis is placed on management quality, reinvestment opportunities,… |
| Jan 15 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | - |
| Oct 15 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 16 2022 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| Apr 20 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | - |
| Jan 18 2024 | 2023 Q4 | MAC, NXRT, NYC, PK, PLD, VNO | - | - | - |
| Oct 17 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | - |
| Jul 21 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has become a dominant theme across major equity indices, with Nvidia leading the S&P 500, ASML dominating MSCI EAFE, and TSMC leading emerging markets. The fund benefited from AI-related dynamics, particularly through Samsung's memory products experiencing substantial price increases due to DRAM shortages driven by AI demand. |
Semiconductors Memory DRAM Technology Nvidia |
BiotechnologyAgronomics provides exposure to cellular agriculture and alternative protein production. BlueNalu focuses on cultured seafood with commercial launch expected in 2026. Liberation Bioindustries opening first commercial factory for alternative protein production. |
Cellular Agriculture Alternative Protein Biotechnology | |
Commercial Real EstateFund maintains significant exposure to commercial real estate platforms including real estate services, asset management, industrial and logistics properties, and self-storage facilities. These holdings represent platforms that would be very difficult to reassemble and comprise select pockets of commercial real estate with structural demand drivers and limited maintenance capital expenditure requirements. |
REIT Industrial Logistics Self Storage Asset Management | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Housing Weakness |
|
Quantum Computing |
||
| 2025 Q2 |
Compounding |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | growth, Hedging, Multiples, Software, valuation | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | MTN | Vail Resorts, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Hotels, Resorts & Cruise Lines | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | assets, Ski, Tourism, valuation, Weather | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | ARE | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. | Real Estate | Health Care REITs | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Biotech, Caprates, Life-science, Oversupply, REITs | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | PLTR | Palantir Technologies Inc. | Information Technology | Application Software | Bear | New York Stock Exchange | AI, Downside, Hedge, Software, valuation | Login |
| Feb 2, 2026 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | QURE | uniQure N.V. | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | NASDAQ | Biotech, clinical data, gene therapy, Optionality, Regulation | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | NVDA | NVIDIA Corp. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bear | NASDAQ | AI, Bubble, CapEx, semiconductors, Speculation, valuation | Login |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | QUBT | Quantum Computing Inc. | Information Technology | Quantum Computing Hardware | Bear | NASDAQ | Bubble, Quantum Computing, Short, Speculation, technology, valuation | Login |
| Jul 8, 2025 | Fund Letters | Hawkins Entrekin | SPWH | Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings, Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Neutral | NASDAQ | Firearms, Margins, retail, turnaround, valuation | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| ARE | Worst for the quarter was Alexandria Real Estate Inc. (ARE) at -39%, as the depth and duration of the valley for biotech real estate appeared to be expanding, and the company signaled a potential dividend cut, which is at odds with our Fund's objective. Subsequent to our sale, the company cut its dividend by 45%. |
| MTN | Our new largest position, Vail Resorts, is probably the best example of this. I started buying in February, when the stock was in the upper $150s. Unfortunately the stock is now trading at $133 (which I think is an incredible opportunity on the flip side) - I bought more as it fell, but our cost basis is around ~$148, so we are still down a decent bit here. Vail deserves it own write up entirely, but the quick thesis on it is that Vail owns irreplaceable assets with very limited new competition, and is cheap on almost any metric you want to use. |
| PLD | Prologis, the largest owner of modern logistics and industrial properties globally sponsoring a REIT that was listed in China to focus on investing in strategic properties within the Greater Bay region. The offering further expands the $65 billion investment management platform at Prologis, which is likely to scale up more in the year ahead, alongside the company's focus on unlocking data center opportunities alongside institutional partners. |
| PLTR | AI-enabled surveillance company Palantir trades at over 100 times sales. |
| QURE | The FDA walking back on QURE approval after mixed data made me roundtrip the profits of that position. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
