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| # | Fund | Strategy | Style | Geography | AUM | Latest Letter |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
As of Oct 15, 2026
Warden Capital generated a net return of 13.31% year-to-date through the third quarter of 2026, outpacing the USRT benchmark return of 9.91% and the S&P 500 return of 12.73%, with net returns subsequently expanding to approximately 24.5% post quarter-end. Performance was characterized by significant volatility around the close of the period, as strong gains across legacy software holdings were partially tempered by clinical biotech pullbacks and quarterly mark-to-market fluctuations. Capital preservation remains the fund's core operational priority, supported by selective profit-taking and an expanding short book constructed via long-dated options to insulate capital against broad market froth. The macroeconomic environment reflects extreme dispersion of potential outcomes, dominated by geopolitical conflict in the Strait of Hormuz and structural cracks in the artificial intelligence buildout. Iranian boat strikes have reignited threats to global oil transit and heightened diesel inventory depletion, spurring inflationary pressures that prompted Federal Reserve rate increases and drove the 10-year Treasury yield above 5.075%. Meanwhile, alternative data reveals plateauing enterprise token spending and decelerating frontier model revenue growth, indicating that the capital-intensive AI infrastructure buildout risks a severe supply-demand imbalance reminiscent of historic boom-bust cycles in cyclical resource sectors. Portfolio activity centered on monetizing software winners while rotating into deeply discounted quality franchises and maintaining disciplined short positions. The manager trimmed core positions in GitLab and Atlassian following 100%+ advances, reallocating proceeds into Intuit, which was aggressively accumulated into the fund's largest long holding during an unprecedented drawdown. Elsewhere, Bumble contributed positively following a take-private transaction, uniQure was retained on strong multi-year clinical slowing in Huntington's disease despite regulatory uncertainty, and an asymmetric short put position on D-Wave Quantum was maintained against deteriorating cash reserves.
Preserve and compound capital through disciplined value investing in mission-critical software franchises and asymmetric special situations while maintaining rigorous short hedges against speculative, capital-intensive market froth.
The manager anticipates entering the end game of the artificial intelligence boom, cautioning that slowing enterprise token spend and mounting debt service costs across the neocloud ecosystem will constrain further unbridled capital expenditure. Geopolitically, the risk of an escalating energy crisis in Hormuz remains elevated, with potential to sustain high inflation and benchmark interest rates. Portfolio strategy remains centered on capital preservation, holding asymmetric put hedges, and owning high-quality, cash-generative franchises capable of compounding independently of broader macroeconomic stability.
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