| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Wealthspire's Q4 2025 review highlights how diversified portfolios returned to favor after the Federal Reserve executed a successful policy pivot toward accommodation. The Fed delivered three rate cuts, moving the policy rate to 3.50-3.75% as labor market stresses grew while inflation cooled meaningfully below 3% year-over-year. This mid-cycle easing mirrors the 1994-95 period and supports pursuit of a soft landing where the economy slows without tipping into recession. International stocks gained over 30% for the year, leading for the first time in years due to cheaper starting valuations and favorable currency dynamics. Fixed income yields at levels not seen for fifteen years provided portfolio ballast as bonds returned over 7%. Despite AI dominating headlines, diversification worked because no single driver dominated the year. The team maintains their balanced approach incorporating global equity investing, emphasizing cash flows, and managing liquidity with intent as they navigate toward 2026 expecting continued soft landing conditions.
Diversified portfolios returned to favor in 2025 as multiple engines of return kicked into gear, with the Federal Reserve's policy pivot toward accommodation supporting a soft landing while international markets led for the first time in years.
The team expects investors to navigate a soft landing backdrop into 2026, similar to the mid-1990s scenario where the economy flies slower without stalling. They anticipate headlines referencing geopolitical risk, midterm elections, and expensive equity markets, but believe creating portfolio durability provides comfort to navigate through headlines over longer time frames.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, diversification, Fed policy, fixed income, inflation, international, rates, Soft Landing | - | The Federal Reserve executed a policy pivot with three interest rate cuts into year-end, moving from restrictive to accommodative policy. The Fed cut rates to 3.50-3.75% as labor market stresses grew substantial enough to overcome inflation worries. This mid-cycle easing mirrors the 1994-95 period and supports the pursuit of a soft landing. Inflation cooled meaningfully through autumn with the Consumer Price Index finally drifting below 3% year-over-year. Despite data quirks from shutdown-delayed reports and potential tariff adjustments that could push category-level prices higher, the bigger story remains constructive with inflation moving down. Artificial intelligence continued to dominate headlines and drive earnings growth for the largest companies with AI links. The buildout in AI infrastructure supported pockets of real assets, though diversified portfolios worked despite AI trends not being the single dominant driver for the year. |
| Oct 15 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 16 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 16 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 17 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 10 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 22 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 12 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 12 2023 | 2023 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 12 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 12 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 12 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 12 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 14 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
RatesFederal Reserve resumed rate-cutting cycle with first cut since December 2024, signaling resumption of easing. Expected three cuts of 25bps between now and first quarter 2026 as Fed responds to signs of weakness in US labor market. |
Fed Monetary Policy Labor Market Easing Liquidity |
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