| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
The first quarter of 2026 was dominated by the U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, creating the largest energy supply disruption in decades. This geopolitical crisis mirrors the 1956 Suez Canal crisis in its potential economic and political ramifications. Oil prices surged 50-100%, with secondary impacts spreading across industrial chemicals, plastics, and other commodities. The Dallas Fed estimates continued closure could reduce global GDP growth by 1.3%. Markets retreated sharply in March, with the S&P 500 down 4.3% for the quarter and technology leading declines as AI investment concerns emerged. However, the manager sees reasons for measured optimism, citing broadening earnings growth from AI and defense spending, moderating shelter costs, and a soft labor market that reduces Fed tightening pressure. Like the Suez Crisis, domestic political pressure around affordability and upcoming mid-term elections could force diplomatic resolution. The economic backdrop appears resilient enough to absorb the shock while negotiations develop.
While the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure represent significant geopolitical and economic risks comparable to the 1956 Suez Crisis, the underlying economic backdrop remains resilient enough to absorb the shock while diplomatic resolution takes shape, supported by broadening earnings growth, moderating core inflation, and domestic political pressure for swift resolution.
The manager sees genuine reasons for measured optimism despite high stakes, believing the conflict has potential to follow a similar resolution arc to the 1956 Suez Crisis. They expect political pressure and economic motivation to drive diplomatic resolution, supported by resilient economic conditions including broadening earnings growth and moderating inflation pressures outside of energy.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14 2026 | 2026 Q1 | - | AI, defense, energy, Geopolitical, inflation, Iran, Markets, oil | - | Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure created massive energy disruption comparable to 1956 Suez Crisis, driving oil prices up 50-100% and broad market retreat. Technology led declines on AI concerns while value outperformed. Despite systemic risks, broadening earnings growth, moderating core inflation, and domestic political pressure for resolution provide reasons for measured optimism. |
| Jan 15 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | AI, diversification, Fed policy, fixed income, inflation, international, rates, Soft Landing | - | Diversified portfolios returned to favor in 2025 as the Fed's policy pivot supported a soft landing with inflation cooling below 3% and international markets leading with 30%+ gains. Fixed income restored its ballast role with 7%+ returns. Despite AI headlines, no single driver dominated, validating the team's balanced global approach heading into 2026. |
| Oct 15 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AMD, INTC, NVDA | AI, Federal Reserve, growth, Industrial Policy, inflation, Markets, tariffs, technology | - | Markets rise because economies grow, driven by resilient consumers and transformational AI capital investment. Despite elevated valuations and policy uncertainty, core growth drivers remain intact with AI fueling productivity gains across industries. The environment reflects reflation not stagflation, with industrial policy reshaping supply chains toward domestic priorities while requiring investor discipline to avoid speculation. |
| Jul 16 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | - | - | Performance table showing Q2 2025 asset class returns with international fixed income and emerging markets leading, while US small-mid cap lagged. Document lacks investment commentary or strategic insights, serving purely as performance reporting without substantive analysis. |
| Apr 9 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | Asset Classes, Dollar, Markets, Performance, tariffs | - | Wealthspire Advisors Q1 2025 review presents asset class performance data showing International Fixed Income leading at 3.65% returns, followed by U.S. Small Cap and Large Cap. The document includes historical charts on tariff rates and dollar strength but lacks investment commentary, strategic insights, or forward-looking analysis. |
| Jan 16 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 10 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | Wealthspire Advisors Q3 2024 performance review showing asset class returns data. US Large Cap led with 22.08% YTD returns, followed by Emerging Markets at 16.26%. The document presents monthly performance rankings across various asset classes but contains no investment commentary, market analysis, or strategic positioning insights. |
| Jul 17 2024 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 10 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AAPL, AMZN, NVDA, TSLA | Behavioral Finance, Fed policy, Market Commentary, Psychology, Risk Appetite | - | Wealthspire Advisors advocates for investment optimism over pervasive market negativity. Despite two years of pessimistic headlines about inflation, rate hikes, and geopolitical tensions, the S&P 500 delivered 9.5% annualized returns. Historical data shows markets consistently reward patient investors over 30-year periods regardless of crises. The firm warns against cheering for Fed rate cuts, which historically signal economic weakness. |
| Jan 22 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | Alternative Investments, asset allocation, fixed income, Market Commentary, Tax Loss Harvesting, Valuations | - | Wealthspire Advisors sees 2023's risk-on performance as setting up reasonable forward return expectations, with attractive valuations in small caps and international markets despite stretched Magnificent 7 multiples. Fixed income yields provide solid income potential while their tax-loss harvesting and alternative investment access enhance client value proposition for 2024. |
| Oct 12 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | Bonds, Fed policy, fixed income, inflation, Market Volatility, rates | - | Wealthspire sees rising rates as a normalization creating real opportunities for savers after years of zero-rate policy. With bond yields at 5.5%, the highest in 15+ years, they expect improved fixed income returns. While rates create equity headwinds, strong consumer and corporate balance sheets provide resilience in the transition period. |
| Jul 12 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AAPL, AMZN, GOOGL, META, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA | fixed income, growth, inflation, rates, Recovery, technology, value | - | Markets are healing from unprecedented 2020-2022 conditions with equity valuations normalizing and fixed income offering compelling yields for the first time in over a decade. While technology stocks drove most gains and inflation risks persist, the overall environment has improved significantly with both asset classes now providing attractive risk-adjusted return potential for long-term investors. |
| Apr 12 2023 | 2023 Q1 | - | asset allocation, Dollar, Performance, Trade Policy | - | Wealthspire Advisors' Q1 2025 review is a performance-focused document showing international fixed income outperforming at 3.65% while domestic small-mid cap equities underperformed at -7.50%. The review includes historical charts on tariffs and dollar strength but lacks strategic commentary, positioning details, or forward outlook. |
| Jan 12 2023 | 2022 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 12 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 12 2022 | 2022 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 14 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilThe closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created the largest disruption to world energy supply in decades, with WTI crude rising 50% and non-U.S. grades up 100% or more. The Dallas Fed estimates this supply disruption is three to five times larger than the oil shocks of 1973 or 1990. |
WTI Crude Supply Disruption Prices |
GeopoliticalThe U.S. and Israeli military strikes on Iran and subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz represent a critical geopolitical risk comparable to the 1956 Suez Crisis. Iran's potential $2 million per vessel toll could generate over $100 billion annually and redirect global commodity flows. |
Iran Strait Hormuz Conflict Leverage | |
AIAI capex trade provided market strength early in the quarter before geopolitical events shifted focus. Software stocks pulled back on concerns that AI investment would erode their competitive value, with software-as-a-service losing its 50% premium to the broader market. |
Capex Software Premium Investment Competition | |
Defense SpendingDefense spending is identified as one of the key drivers powering broadening earnings growth, providing support for the economic backdrop despite geopolitical tensions. |
Earnings Growth Military Spending Support | |
InflationEnergy price increases from the Strait closure have raised inflation concerns, with secondary impacts spreading to plastics, aluminum, fertilizers, and industrial chemicals. Markets have largely erased expectations for Fed cuts in 2026. |
Energy Prices Fed Cuts Expectations | |
| 2025 Q4 |
TechnologyThe Fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in securities of companies principally engaged in the research, design, development, manufacturing, or distributing of products or services in the technology industry. The investment universe includes IT consulting, internet services, application software, communications equipment, semiconductors, and interactive media services. |
Software Hardware Semiconductors Internet Communications |
| 2025 Q3 |
AIAI stands at the front of defining themes for 2025, driving one of the most significant capital expenditure cycles in decades. Major investments include Nvidia's $100 billion investment in OpenAI and new partnerships securing massive chip supply deals. The AI boom is spilling over into manufacturing, healthcare, logistics, and finance, representing a secular transformation with measurable productivity gains. |
Artificial Intelligence Capital Expenditure Productivity Technology Innovation |
Industrial PolicyThe U.S. has re-embraced industrial policy in 2025, with tariffs reshaping supply chains in manufacturing, energy, and technology sectors. This environment is shifting domestic production towards a political and economic priority, supported by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act incentives around manufacturing and infrastructure to spur capital investment. |
Manufacturing Tariffs Supply Chain Domestic Production Infrastructure | |
InflationCurrent inflation environment reflects an economy that's simply too warm rather than broken, with core PCE at 2.9%. The path from 9% CPI to sub-3% core PCE has been the easy part, with stickier categories like housing and services remaining stubbornly high. This represents reflation rather than stagflation. |
Core PCE Housing Services Reflation Federal Reserve | |
| 2024 Q1 |
Risk AppetiteThe letter emphasizes how negativity and fear dominate investor psychology despite markets delivering positive returns. It argues that markets do not always coalesce around fear when given time and patience, and that the human predisposition towards negativity leads investors to emphasize loss avoidance above all else. |
Negativity Fear Psychology Patience Optimism |
| 2023 Q4 |
Risk AppetiteThe letter describes 2023 as generally risk on across most asset classes, with riskier fixed income outperforming core bonds and equity markets posting strong gains. The risk-on sentiment was particularly evident in the final two months when favorable Fed and Treasury announcements caused stocks to rise and bond yields to fall. |
Risk On Asset Classes Performance Sentiment Markets |
ValueThe document highlights that outside of US Large Cap growth stocks, equity valuations are reasonable. Small Cap P/E levels are below average and median levels for the last ten years, and international stocks also show attractive valuations compared to historical medians. |
Valuations Small Cap International P/E Ratios Attractive | |
| 2023 Q3 |
RatesRising interest rates are creating opportunities for savers with real returns above inflation for the first time since the 1990s. Bond yields at 5.5% offer improved prospects for nominal and real returns. Higher rates are normalizing after the anomalous zero-rate environment post-Financial Crisis. |
Interest rates Bond yields ZIRP Fed policy Inflation |
InflationInflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target at 3.7% year-over-year, though improving from higher levels. The back-and-forth on inflation dynamics continues to drive market volatility and Fed policy expectations. |
CPI Fed target Price stability Economic data Policy | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIThe letter references artificial intelligence in the context of productivity scenarios and mentions it would be avant-garde to have ChatGPT write the quarterly letter. AI is discussed as a potential driver of economic growth through productivity improvements in one of McKinsey's four medium-term scenarios. |
Productivity Technology Growth |
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