| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | -6.1% | -6.1% |
White Falcon posted a -6.1% return in Q1 2026 versus -3.1% for the S&P 500, driven by software sector multiple contraction amid AI-related risks and company-specific setbacks at Ag Growth and Ivanhoe Mines. However, strong performance from New Flyer Industries and precious metals holdings provided partial offset. The manager views the software sector as either a fantastic long-term opportunity or potential value trap, believing it to be the former and meaningfully increasing allocation. The investment framework focuses on essential software companies with multiple competitive moats that are incorporating AI, exemplified by new positions in Oracle and Unity Software. Oracle is transforming into a vertically integrated cloud provider leveraging its database moat to attract AI workloads, while Unity benefits from AI accelerating game creation. The Iran war created market volatility but the manager used this to improve portfolio quality and deploy cash at attractive valuations. Top 5 positions include precious metals royalty companies, NFI, Nu Holdings, Unity Software and Amazon. The manager remains optimistic about portfolio prospects.
White Falcon focuses on opportunistically investing in quality, growing businesses with durable competitive advantages at attractive valuations, with current emphasis on essential software companies incorporating AI and precious metals positions.
White Falcon remains optimistic on the future of the portfolio after using the downturn to improve quality and valuation. The manager looks forward to earnings season to understand how management teams are thinking about inflation and deploying AI within their organizations. The market dislocation from the Iran war may ultimately provide fuel for markets to continue advancing.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20 2026 | 2026 Q1 | AFN.TO, AMZN, APP, IVN.TO, NFI.TO, NU, ORCL, U | AI, Cloud, Enterprise, Precious Metals, software, technology, value |
ORCL U |
White Falcon posted -6.1% in Q1 amid software sector volatility but used the drawdown to meaningfully increase allocation to essential software companies incorporating AI. Key positions include Oracle transforming into a cloud AI business and Unity Software benefiting from AI-driven game creation acceleration. Precious metals provided strong performance offset. |
| Jan 21 2026 | 2025 Q4 | AFN.TO, AMD, AMZN, ATZ.TO, CSIQ, EPAM, FNV, GRFS, HUN, NFI.TO, NU, RGLD, RTO.L, TFPM, W | AI, Chemicals, Cyclical, gold, semiconductors, Solar, technology, value |
AMD EPAM NU NFI HUN |
White Falcon delivered 28.4% returns in 2025 through concentrated value investing in quality companies. Three-year CAGR of 25.9% demonstrates consistent outperformance. Portfolio benefits from precious metals hedge, semiconductor AI exposure, and contrarian positions in solar and chemicals. Despite elevated market valuations, disciplined approach creates opportunities by focusing on intrinsic value gaps and turning volatility into strategic positioning. |
| Oct 20 2025 | 2025 Q3 | AFN.TO, AMD, DAVA, EPAM, FNV, NFI.TO, NU, SSL.TO, TFPM, TIXT | Agriculture, AI, gold, Quality, royalties, technology, value |
FNV CN FNV CN TFPM CN SSL CN AMD NFI CN NU EPAM DAVA AFN CN |
White Falcon delivered 10.8% in Q3 2025, driven by gold royalties and core holdings catching up to fundamentals. The manager practices disciplined value investing with variant views, recently adding agricultural equipment exposure while trimming gold positions after strong runs. Elevated cash reflects difficulty finding quality opportunities meeting strict criteria in current environment. |
| Jul 16 2025 | 2025 Q2 | AMD, ATZ.TO, CTS.TO, DAVA, DSEY, EPAM, MAXR.TO, NU, RGLD, ROVR, SSL.TO, T.TO, TIXT.TO, W | Acquisitions, AI, Canada, Gold Royalties, IT Services, technology, value, volatility |
ATZ.TO W EPAM DAVA TIXT.TO |
White Falcon delivered 17.6% in Q2 by capitalizing on tariff volatility in retail while maintaining conviction in underperforming IT services holdings. Five acquisitions at premiums validate the value approach. Building cash after strong rally with 24% three-year CAGR. Diversified US-international portfolio positioned for earnings-driven market with dollar weakness benefiting international exposure. |
| Apr 21 2025 | 2025 Q1 | CTS.TO, DAVA, EPAM, GRFS, NFI.TO, NU, RTO.L | Biotechnology, global, gold, IT Services, small caps, tariffs, Trade Policy, value | GRFS | White Falcon posted -6.7% in Q1 2025 amid Trump tariff volatility but deployed cash into best ideas during market weakness. Portfolio benefits from gold surge to $3,400/oz and Converge acquisition premium. IT services holdings pressured by spending delays but offer compelling value at trough multiples. Manager expects tariff policies reversed, maintaining focus on small-cap value opportunities globally. |
| Jan 17 2025 | 2024 Q4 | AMD, AMZN, ATZ.TO, CTS.TO, DAVA, EPAM, NFI.TO, NU, PRGO, RTO.L, VALE, XEQT.TO | Brazil, Pharmaceuticals, small caps, technology, turnaround, value | - | White Falcon delivered 14.4% in 2024, underperforming the S&P 500 but achieving solid absolute returns. The fund has shifted toward value opportunities in small/mid-caps left behind in the rally. Key positions include tech services companies positioned for AI-driven growth and Perrigo as a consumer health turnaround. Portfolio positioned for earnings growth in 2025 despite near-term market speculation concerns. |
| Oct 21 2024 | 2024 Q3 | AMZN, CVO.TO, DAVA, EPAM, FNV, NU, PGO, RTO.L | AI, Cloud, digital transformation, gold, IT Services, Precious Metals, value | DAVA | White Falcon returned 6.0% in Q3, driven by precious metals royalties. The fund maintains quality businesses at reasonable valuations while hedging macro risks through gold exposure. IT services holdings Endava and EPAM are positioned for recovery as AI spending accelerates. Several positions are forming bottoms with substantial upside potential from current levels. |
| Jul 17 2024 | 2024 Q2 | AMZN, ATZ.TO, CTS, CVX, DAVA, EPAM, FTRE, NU, NVDA, OXY, RTO.L, WBD | AI, IT Services, Quality, small caps, technology, value |
ATZ.TO RTO.L |
White Falcon's Q2 underperformance was driven by IT services holdings hit by AI-related corporate spending shifts. The manager sees this as temporary, adding to EPAM and Endava at historically low valuations. The fund is shifting toward small and mid-caps where valuations are more attractive, positioning for a 1970s-style environment that will challenge passive investors but reward active stock selection. |
| Apr 29 2024 | 2024 Q1 | AMD, AMZN, ATZ.TO, CTS.TO, DAVA, FNV, LFCR, NU, TECK.TO | Canada, gold, IT Services, small caps, technology, value |
EQTL LCBM CTS.TO |
White Falcon posted 8.7% Q1 returns through value-focused stock selection, trimming overvalued positions while adding to IT services companies Endava and Converge at attractive valuations. The concentrated portfolio emphasizes small-mid cap opportunities and maintains precious metal royalty exposure for inflation protection. Manager expects increased volatility ahead but remains optimistic on portfolio IRR potential. |
| Jan 17 2024 | 2023 Q4 | AMD, AMZN, CNDT, CTS.TO, DCBO.TO, FTRE, LFCR, NU, ROVR, WBD | Brazil, Fintech, growth, Quality, small caps, technology, value |
ROVR ARGX BB|DAVA|DDOG|GLOB|ILMN|LOAR|MELI|NET|NU|NVDA|TSM |
White Falcon delivered 36% net returns in 2023, primarily from technology positions acquired during 2022's bear market downturn. The value-focused fund maintains 22 positions across quality businesses with low market expectations. Current positioning favors small and mid-cap companies with appealing valuations. The manager remains constructive on prospects given reasonable valuations, rising earnings, and declining rates. |
| Dec 10 2023 | 2023 Q3 | AMD, AMZN, MCD, NU, ROVR, TECK | active management, commodities, inflation, marketplaces, Quality, value | ROVR | White Falcon's value-focused approach targets quality businesses at fair prices while positioning for inflation through companies with pricing power and commodity exposure. Despite rising bond yields creating equity alternatives, the manager believes active stock picking can outperform in potential lost decade scenarios. Rover marketplace investment exemplifies strategy with dominant position and inflation-resistant growth model. |
| Dec 7 2023 | 2023 Q2 | AMD, AMZN, ATZ.TO, CTS.TO, DAVA, EPAM, NU, TECK.TO, WPM | AI, Brazil, gold, IT Services, Mining, semiconductors, technology, value |
ARGX BB|DAVA|DDOG|GLOB|ILMN|LOAR|MELI|NET|NU|NVDA|TSM AMD AMZN WPM EPAM |
White Falcon posted strong Q2 returns of 6.9% driven by technology gains, then tactically rotated into deep value and commodities as tech valuations expanded. Manager sees AI benefiting IT services companies and structural copper opportunities from electrification. Portfolio maintains balanced allocation across compounders and value plays with 5% cash for opportunistic deployment. |
| Apr 18 2023 | 2023 Q1 | AMD, AMZN, CVG.TO, DCBO.TO, DSEY, EPAM, MAXR, NU, TECK.TO | Banking Crisis, M&A, Precious Metals, semiconductors, technology, value | DCBO.TO | White Falcon gained 12.36% in Q1 2023 from technology and precious metals exposure plus Diversey takeover at 90% premium. AMD surged 50% as AI drove semiconductor demand. Banking crisis validated precious metals hedge while constraining Fed policy. Portfolio up 28.7% since 2022 panic, with M&A activity confirming undervaluation thesis and opportunistic value approach. |
| Oct 1 2023 | 2022 Q4 | AMD, CPLFF, DSEY, EPAM, FTCH, Gold, MAXR, Precious Metals | - | - | |
| Oct 16 2022 | 2022 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Jul 14 2022 | 2022 Q2 | 5Z5 GR, AMZN, CPLF CN, CTS CN, EPAM, NU | - | - | |
| Dec 4 2022 | 2022 Q1 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
AIAI is making software development faster and cheaper, leading enterprises to approve previously uneconomic projects. The real risk comes from autonomous agents that could disrupt software vendors, though current agents have limitations including hallucinations and compute constraints. White Falcon is investing in essential software companies incorporating AI into their businesses. |
Software Agents Enterprise Automation Development |
SoftwareThe software sector represents either a fantastic long-term opportunity or potential value trap. White Falcon has meaningfully increased allocation, focusing on essential software companies with multiple competitive moats. The sector has reached attractive valuation levels where one can underwrite attractive IRRs after previous high valuations. |
Enterprise SaaS Valuations Moats Cloud | |
CloudOracle is transforming into a vertically integrated enterprise cloud provider, leveraging its database position to attract AI workloads onto OCI infrastructure. The company is partnering with major hyperscalers rather than competing head-on, and generating solid cloud margins while accelerating growth. |
Infrastructure Database Hyperscaler Multicloud OCI | |
GoldPrecious metals basket provided strong performance during the quarter, helping offset pressures from software holdings and company-specific setbacks. Precious metals royalty companies represent one of the top 5 positions in the portfolio. |
Royalties Performance Portfolio | |
| 2025 Q4 |
AIArtificial intelligence enthusiasm supported large-cap growth companies and drove technology-led earnings growth. Much of today's technology-led earnings growth is supported by long-term capital investment in AI, energy, and infrastructure reflecting demographic pressures and labor scarcity. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Investment Growth Infrastructure |
EarningsStrong corporate earnings drove market gains, particularly within technology and communication services. Current valuation levels suggest returns will depend more on earnings durability and cash-flow generation than on further multiple expansion. |
Corporate Earnings Technology Communication Services Cash Flow Valuations | |
RatesThe Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points in December, bringing the policy rate to 3.5%-3.75%. The Fed cut rates three times in 2025 and currently expects one more cut in 2026, with markets pricing in roughly two additional cuts. |
Federal Reserve Interest Rates Monetary Policy Rate Cuts | |
DollarA weaker U.S. dollar, down 9.4% in 2025, provided a notable tailwind for foreign assets and helped boost international equity returns to U.S. dollar terms. |
US Dollar Currency International Foreign Assets | |
VolatilityInvestor confidence has improved since April's tariff episode, reflected through a meaningful decline in market volatility in both stock and bond markets. The VIX and MOVE indices spiked after President Trump's tariff announcement but have since moved back to levels associated with more stable markets. |
Market Volatility VIX MOVE Investor Confidence | |
| 2025 Q3 |
Gold RoyaltiesGold and silver royalty names performed very well thanks to recent strength in metal prices. The manager's preferred vehicle for investing in gold has been royalty companies, which are high quality businesses offering diversification, yield, and option value. Positions in Franco-Nevada, Triple Flag, and Sandstorm Gold have more than doubled since March 2024, leading to position trimming due to parabolic price moves. |
Gold Silver Royalties Mining Commodities |
AIAI has quickly become one of the most dominant themes in today's market as a transformative technology with potential to reshape entire industries and disrupt business models. The manager notes that AI is likely to disappoint both optimists and pessimists, with real impact landing somewhere in the middle depending on application, regulation, and integration into real-world business applications. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Disruption Innovation Transformation | |
ValueThe manager practices value investing but emphasizes their style has nothing to do with low current valuations. They focus on companies where growth, margins, or free cash flow will exceed market expectations, where the market doesn't appreciate business quality or management capital allocation, or where businesses are out of favor due to temporary factors. |
Value Investing Undervalued Quality Growth Margins | |
Ag EquipmentThe manager recently bought Ag Growth International, a dominant supplier of portable and stationary grain handling, storage and conditioning equipment. With soft commodity prices declining, farmers are holding off on replacing equipment, but this cycle is expected to reverse. The company trades at attractive valuations of 6.5x 2025E EBITDA and 9x 2025E EPS. |
Agriculture Equipment Commodities Cyclical Value | |
| 2025 Q2 |
Gold RoyaltiesThe fund experienced gains in gold and silver royalty holdings during Q2. Precious metal royalty companies represent the top positions in the White Falcon portfolio. The fund benefited from the acquisition of portfolio company Sandstorm Gold by Royal Gold at a 98% premium to their cost basis. |
Gold Silver Royalties Precious Metals Mining |
AIThe manager discusses AI's transformative impact on productivity and business operations. While acknowledging AI will deliver profound productivity benefits, the manager believes IT services companies will benefit as competitive pressures drive higher overall IT spending despite per-project deflation. The manager personally leverages AI for company analysis, finding it as valuable as having a highly efficient junior analyst. |
Artificial Intelligence Productivity IT Services Technology Automation | |
IT ServicesEPAM Systems and Endava have been significant detractors, reducing performance by approximately 700 basis points year-to-date. The manager maintains conviction that these businesses will benefit from increased IT spending driven by competitive pressures, despite market concerns about AI-induced deflation in per-project revenues. The next few quarters will provide more definitive evidence for this thesis. |
EPAM Endava Technology Services Enterprise IT Digital Transformation | |
VolatilityThe fund took advantage of tariff-induced market volatility, particularly in the retail sector. The manager views volatility as presenting compelling opportunities rather than risk, demonstrating this philosophy by investing in stocks with asymmetric risk-reward profiles that are priced for worst-case scenarios. The manager notes the surprising fragility of US financial markets during recent volatility episodes. |
Market Volatility Tariffs Opportunity Risk Management Market Timing | |
| 2025 Q1 |
Trade PolicyPresident Trump's unexpected tariff announcements created significant market volatility and uncertainty. Tariffs as high as 145% on China essentially amount to an embargo, with unclear reasoning behind the policy. The manager believes these destructive policies will likely be reversed or negotiated away before causing lasting damage. |
Tariffs China Trade War Policy Uncertainty Embargo |
GoldGold has surged from $1,800/oz to $3,400/oz, benefiting the portfolio's precious metals royalty holdings. The manager maintains gold allocation as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties and government debt situations, expecting continued appreciation as governments inflate their way out of debt burdens. |
Gold Price Precious Metals Royalties Inflation Hedge Debt | |
IT ServicesIT services companies Endava and EPAM have been main portfolio detractors due to tariff uncertainty delaying client decision making and affecting IT spend. Despite being early on the investment, the manager maintains conviction based on strong balance sheets, digital transformation positioning, founder-led management, and cheap valuations at trough multiples. |
Digital Transformation AI Implementation Trough Valuations Client Spending Founder Led | |
BiotechnologyDetailed analysis of Grifols SA, a Spanish plasma-derived therapies company operating in an oligopolistic market. New management team implementing operational improvements after years of poor governance. The company benefits from high barriers to entry, limited substitutes, and stable demand, though faces risks from recombinant protein substitutes. |
Plasma Therapies Oligopoly Corporate Governance Operational Turnaround Barriers to Entry | |
Small CapsOver the past 12-18 months, the manager has strategically increased allocation to smaller capitalization businesses which form a very small part of popular indices. These areas are believed to present some of the most compelling value opportunities in the current market environment. |
Value Opportunities Index Divergence Strategic Allocation Market Inefficiency Undervalued | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValueWhite Falcon gravitates towards opportunities with low expectations and low valuations, particularly in smaller companies left behind in the market rally. The portfolio has shifted more towards 'value today' positioning with significant margin of safety. |
Value investing Low valuations Margin of safety Undervalued Contrarian |
Small CapsPortfolio has increased allocation to small and mid-cap companies which have been left behind in the market rally. Small-cap allocation increased from 11.2% to 15.5% while mid-cap grew from 44.6% to 53.6%. |
Small cap Mid cap SMID Underperformance Opportunity | |
PharmaceuticalsDetailed investment thesis on Perrigo, a consumer health company positioned for an inflection point. Focus on over-the-counter pharmaceuticals with regulatory advantages and scale benefits in private label products. |
OTC Consumer health Private label FDA Turnaround | |
AIDiscussion of AMD's AI chip business and IT services companies positioned to benefit from businesses modernizing technology stacks to implement AI solutions. EPAM and Endava are showing positive inflections driven by AI implementation needs. |
AI chips Technology modernization IT services Implementation Growth cycle | |
| 2024 Q3 |
GoldGold has been one of the top-performing assets, up 31.4% YTD, driven by persisting debt and deficits in the West and geopolitical tensions. The fund holds precious metals royalty companies as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties, viewing gold as a benchmark of value since the beginning of money. |
Gold Royalties Inflation Currency Geopolitical Debt |
IT ServicesThe fund is heavily invested in IT services companies like Endava and EPAM, which have been detractors this year but are believed to be nearing their bottom. These companies are positioned to benefit from digital transformation, AI implementation, and cloud migration projects as IT spending recovers. |
Digital Transformation Cloud AI Outsourcing Recovery | |
AIAI is viewed as a catalyst requiring significant foundational work including cloud migration and data consolidation, creating new opportunities for IT services companies. The fund believes AI will accelerate cloud migrations and drive demand for engineering-focused IT services providers. |
Cloud Migration Data Implementation Engineering Productivity | |
| 2024 Q2 |
AIAI is the new technology trend with investor emphasis on hardware investment. As hardware becomes widespread, focus will shift to creating and optimizing AI applications where EPAM and Endava will benefit. However, AI is still new and clients need time to identify best use cases, leading to cautious wait-and-see approach suppressing current IT services demand. |
Technology Applications Implementation Services Demand |
IT ServicesPortfolio heavily positioned in IT services companies EPAM and Endava that help corporations implement new technologies. These are good quality businesses with robust economics led by founder CEOs. Currently experiencing suppressed demand due to client uncertainty about AI use cases, but will benefit when corporations need help designing, building, testing and implementing AI applications. |
EPAM Endava Implementation Technology Consulting | |
ValueManager emphasizes buying good quality businesses at reasonable valuations, often at points of maximum pessimism. EPAM and Endava now trading at historically low multiples of depressed earnings. Aritzia was purchased at less than 10x 2026E earnings estimates during temporary difficulties. |
Valuation Multiples Pessimism Quality Opportunity | |
Small CapsStrategy of shifting portfolio increasingly towards small and mid-cap stocks where valuations are much more reasonable. Several small and mid-cap stocks did not gain or sustain gains despite fundamental improvements during the quarter, but early signs of optimism emerged following quarter-end with lower inflation readings and rate cut expectations. |
Valuations Fundamentals Rates Inflation Opportunity | |
| 2024 Q1 |
IT ServicesManager discusses IT service providers as good businesses that act as a royalty on IT spend, serving as an important link between technology and corporations. Sees favorable backdrop with rising technology investments, growing outsourcing trends, and emergence of AI. Endava and Converge represent significant positions in this space. |
IT Services Outsourcing Technology Professional Services Managed Services |
ValueManager emphasizes buying reasonably valued small and mid-cap stocks while trimming holdings where valuations are stretched. Describes looking for mispriced opportunities and investing with a margin of safety. Portfolio construction focuses on being concentrated enough to matter but diversified enough to survive. |
Value Investing Margin of Safety Mispriced Undervalued Selective | |
GoldManager maintains 10-15% allocation to precious metal royalty companies, viewing royalties as a better way to express gold opinion since they pay dividends and have optionality on both gold price and additional discoveries. Sees gold as an outside the system asset for purchasing power protection. |
Gold Royalties Precious Metals Inflation Protection Franco-Nevada | |
AIManager notes AI as new technology creating both opportunities and challenges. Clients require time to discern optimal AI use-case scenarios, leading to cautious wait-and-see approach that temporarily delays IT projects. Views AI emergence as part of favorable backdrop for IT service providers. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Innovation Digital Transformation Emerging Technology | |
| 2023 Q4 |
ValueWhite Falcon practices value investing by buying businesses for less than they are worth when the market has low expectations. Their style has nothing to do with low current valuations - a stock at 10x P/E can be expensive while another at 30x P/E may be fantastic value. |
Value Investing Undervalued Low Expectations Variant View Quality |
FinTechNu Holdings represents a digital banking platform disrupting traditional financial services in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. The company leverages data analytics and technology to provide superior products without expensive branch infrastructure, creating a powerful business model with strong unit economics. |
Digital Banking Financial Services Brazil Technology Data Analytics | |
AIAMD benefited significantly from AI trends, though this was not part of the original investment thesis. The manager notes that AI was a fortunate development that contributed to AMD's strong performance, demonstrating how investing in quality businesses can lead to unexpected benefits. |
Artificial Intelligence Semiconductors Technology Unexpected Benefits | |
| 2023 Q3 |
InflationManager views inflation as a tax and discusses how rising yields create alternatives to equities. Emphasizes that inflation benefits companies with pricing power and those that built infrastructure with yesterday's currency but can capitalize with tomorrow's inflated dollars. |
Inflation Yields Pricing Power Currency Tax |
MarketplacesExtensive analysis of Rover as a dominant marketplace business model. Discusses network effects, take rates, operating leverage, and the attractive economics of scaled marketplace businesses with high margins and pricing power. |
Marketplaces Network Effects Take Rate Operating Leverage Pricing Power | |
ValueManager emphasizes buying good quality businesses at fair valuations with margin of safety. Discusses how value investors can thrive during lost decades when indexing struggles, and focuses on low starting valuations in portfolio construction. |
Value Valuations Margin of Safety Quality Lost Decades | |
CommoditiesPortfolio has significant allocation to precious metal royalty companies and commodity-exposed businesses like Teck Resources. Manager notes commodities directly benefit from inflationary environment and discusses replacement cost advantages. |
Commodities Precious Metals Royalties Copper Replacement Cost | |
| 2023 Q2 |
AIManager views AI as a significant catalyst for technology companies and believes IT services providers like EPAM will be key enablers of corporate AI adoption. Discusses how AI helped investors get comfortable with future earnings growth in tech companies and argues against the narrative that AI will hurt IT services companies. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology IT Services Growth |
GoldManager holds precious metals royalty companies as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. Notes that gold is flirting with all-time highs despite record positive real yields, attributing this to concerns about debt sustainability and future money printing by central banks. |
Precious Metals Royalties Hedge Inflation | |
CopperManager believes copper will be a structural winner over the next 10 years due to insufficient capital spent on exploration in the last decade and increasing use in electrification. Views the world as short copper with long lead times for new supply. |
Mining Electrification Supply Structural | |
ValueManager trimmed technology stocks and allocated capital to deep value, commodity and special situation equities. Notes that value today exposure has languished and can propel the portfolio if it participates with the market. Portfolio allocation shows 42% to Value Today category. |
Deep Value Special Situations Allocation | |
CloudManager discusses cloud migration work being performed by IT services companies and notes that cloud providers like AWS and Google bring EPAM into deals to help modernize tech stacks for clients. Views cloud modernization as a continuing growth driver for quality IT services providers. |
Migration Infrastructure Modernization | |
| 2023 Q1 |
AIManager notes that markets realized AI and related technologies require significant semiconductors, driving strong performance in AMD position. Views AI as a key driver of semiconductor demand. |
Artificial Intelligence Semiconductors Technology |
GoldPrecious metals hedge validated during banking crisis as gold rallied after Silicon Valley Bank crisis. Manager believes precious metals better suited than government bonds as portfolio ballast given unlimited bond supply. |
Precious Metals Gold Banking Crisis | |
SemiconductorsAdded AMD at 18x earnings when market worried about earnings revisions. Stock up 50% in Q1 as market recognized AI-driven semiconductor demand. Views semiconductor volatility as opportunity for enterprising investors. |
AMD Chip Demand Earnings | |
BankingSevere banking crisis with regional US banks taken over by FDIC. Expects ongoing stress due to differential between money market and deposit rates, though authorities limited contagion. Crisis constrains Fed's ability to raise rates. |
Regional Banks FDIC Interest Rates |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | ORCL | Oracle Corporation | Software - Infrastructure | Systems Software | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, cloud infrastructure, Data Moat, Database, Enterprise software, hyperscaler, Mission-Critical, Multicloud, System of Record | Login |
| Apr 20, 2026 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | U | Unity Software | Software - Application | Application Software | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | 3D Engine, advertising technology, AI, Gaming, Mobile Games, monetization, Real Time, turnaround, Vector | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, datacenters, GPUs, marketshare, semiconductors | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | EPAM | EPAM Systems, Inc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | AI, cloud, Digitaltransformation, Itservices, productivity | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd. | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | compounding, Digitalbanking, Fintech, growth, LatAm | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | NFI | NFI Group Inc. | Industrials | Commercial Vehicles | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | backlog, Cyclicals, deleveraging, Evbuses, infrastructure | Login |
| Jan 21, 2026 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | HUN | Huntsman Corporation | Materials | Specialty Chemicals | Bull | New York Stock Exchange | Chemicals, Cyclicals, Housing, Operatingleverage, restructuring | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | SSL CN | Sandstorm Gold Ltd. | Materials | Precious Metals | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, deleveraging, Gold, inflation hedge, leverage, royalties | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | FNV CN | Franco-Nevada Corp. | Materials | Precious Metals | Bull | TSX | balance sheet, compounding, Gold, inflation hedge, Margins, Optionality, royalties | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Inc. | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, data centers, growth, innovation, Margins, semiconductors | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | NFI CN | NFI Group Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Automobiles | Bull | NYSE | cash flow, Electrification, EV, Public transit, Transportation, turnaround | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | NU | Nu Holdings Ltd. | Financials | Fintech | Bull | NYSE | digital banking, Fintech, growth, Latin America, ROE, Scalability | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | FNV CN | Franco-Nevada Corp. | Materials | Precious Metals | Bull | NYSE | balance sheet, compounding, Gold, inflation hedge, Margins, Optionality, royalties | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | EPAM | EPAM Systems Inc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bear | NYSE | AI, Consulting, Digital, IT services, Margins, transformation | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | TFPM CN | Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. | Materials | Precious Metals | Bull | NYSE | compounding, diversification, FCF, Gold, royalties, Streaming | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | DAVA | Endava Plc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bear | NYSE | AI, Digital transformation, Execution, financial services, IT services, risk management | Login |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Fund Letters | Balkar Silvia | AFN CN | Ag Growth International Inc. | Industrials | Farm & Heavy Machinery | Bull | NYSE | agriculture, deleveraging, Equipment, growth, ROIC, valuation | Login |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | TIXT.TO | Telus International Inc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | Canada, Fair value, IT services, Parent Company, Special Situation, take-private, Technical Selling, undervaluation | Login |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | ATZ.TO | Aritzia Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | asymmetric risk-reward, Canada, e-commerce, fashion, market overreaction, Specialty retail, tariff impact, US Expansion | Login |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | W | Wayfair Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | asset-light, asymmetric risk-reward, e-commerce, furniture, Home goods, marketplace model, Tariff Protection, Vendor Competition | Login |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | EPAM | EPAM Systems Inc. | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | NYSE | Artificial Intelligence, Competitive pressure, Digital transformation, Enterprise Technology, IT services, Legacy Modernization, Project Volume Growth | Login |
| Jul 16, 2025 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | DAVA | Endava plc | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | NYSE | Artificial Intelligence, Competitive pressure, Digital transformation, Enterprise Technology, IT services, Legacy Modernization, Project Volume Growth | Login |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | GRFS | Grifols S.A. | Health Care | Biotechnology | Bull | BME Spanish Exchanges | biopharma, biotechnology, Equity, healthcare, Immunoglobulin, oligopoly, Plasma-derived therapies, Spain, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Oct 21, 2024 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | DAVA | Endava PLC | Information Technology | IT Consulting & Other Services | Bull | NYSE | AI implementation, cloud migration, Cyclical Recovery, Digital transformation, Equity, financial services, founder-led, healthcare, IT services, Outsourcing, turnaround, UK | Login |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | ATZ.TO | Aritzia Inc. | Consumer Discretionary | Specialty Retail | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | contrarian, founder-led, high-ROIC, Specialty retail, turnaround, US Expansion, Value, Women's Fashion | Login |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | RTO.L | Rentokil Initial plc | Industrials | Commercial Services & Supplies | Bull | London Stock Exchange | asymmetric risk-reward, business services, defensive, Hygiene Services, M&A Integration, pest control, Recession-resistant, Value | Login |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | EQTL | Endava plc | Information Technology | IT Consulting & Other Services | Bull | NYSE | Artificial Intelligence, Cyclical, Digital transformation, financial services, founder-led, IT services, Outsourcing, Payments, UK, Value | Login |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | CTS.TO | Converge Technology Solutions Corp | Information Technology | Technology Distributors | Bull | TSX | Canada, cash conversion, Integration, IT services, M&A, Managed services, Roll-up, technology distribution, turnaround, Value | Login |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | LCBM | Lifecore Biomedical Inc | Health Care | Life Sciences Tools & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Biomedical, capacity expansion, CDMO, contract manufacturing, FDA Compliance, Free Cash Flow, Injectable Drugs, Merger Arbitrage, operating leverage, pharmaceuticals | Login |
| Jan 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | ROVR | Rover Group Inc | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | EBITDA margins, marketplace, Pet Services, technology platform, turnaround, Underearning, Value | Login |
| Jan 17, 2024 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | ARGX BB|DAVA|DDOG|GLOB|ILMN|LOAR|MELI|NET|NU|NVDA|TSM | Nu Holdings Ltd | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | Brazil, credit cards, cross-selling, Customer Acquisition, Data Analytics, digital banking, Emerging markets, Fintech, Latin America, technology platform | Login |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | AMZN | Amazon.com | Consumer Discretionary | Internet & Direct Marketing Retail | Bull | NASDAQ | advertising, AWS, Cloud computing, Culture, e-commerce, Free Cash Flow, Logistics, oligopoly, Venture Investments | Login |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | WPM | Wheaton Precious Metals | Materials | Gold | Bull | NYSE | debt, Gold, inflation hedge, Macroeconomic, monetary policy, Portfolio Insurance, Precious Metals, Real Yields, Royalty | Login |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | - | Teck Resources | Materials | Diversified Metals & Mining | Bull | TSX | Canada, Commodities, Copper, Electrification, Free Cash Flow, Mining, QB2, supply deficit, takeover target | Login |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | EPAM | EPAM Systems | Information Technology | IT Services | Bull | NYSE | AI, cloud migration, Digital transformation, engineering, geopolitical risk, IT services, net cash, Software Development, turnaround | Login |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | ARGX BB|DAVA|DDOG|GLOB|ILMN|LOAR|MELI|NET|NU|NVDA|TSM | Nu Holdings | Financials | Consumer Finance | Bull | NYSE | Brazil, Credit, Data Analytics, digital banking, Emerging markets, Fintech, market share, Neobank, ROE | Login |
| Jul 12, 2023 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | AMD | Advanced Micro Devices | Information Technology | Semiconductors | Bull | NASDAQ | AI, Chiplet Architecture, Cyclical, diversification, Free Cash Flow, Gpu, semiconductors, technology, TSMC | Login |
| Apr 18, 2023 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | DCBO.TO | Docebo Inc. | Software & Services | Application Software | Bull | Toronto Stock Exchange | AI, Canada, Edtech, Enterprise software, growth, Learning Management System, LMS, recurring revenue, SaaS, Software, technology, Value | Login |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Fund Letters | White Falcon Capital Management | ROVR | Rover Group | Communication Services | Interactive Media & Services | Bull | NASDAQ | Category Disruptor, EBITDA Margin Expansion, marketplace, network effects, operating leverage, Pet Care, Revenue Growth, Take rate | Login |
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| AFN.TO | our holdings in Ag Growth (AFN) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) faced company specific setbacks that further contributed to the drawdown |
| IVN.TO | our holdings in Ag Growth (AFN) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) faced company specific setbacks that further contributed to the drawdown |
| NFI.TO | These pressures were partly offset by strong performance from New Flyer Industries (NFI) and our precious metals basket |
| ORCL | Oracle is reinventing itself from a traditional software company into a vertically integrated enterprise cloud provider, controlling the entire stack from infrastructure to database to enterprise applications. At its core, with its database and applications, Oracle is the 'system of record' which executives rely on as the 'single source of truth' within an enterprise. Much of the world's government, financial, healthcare, and retail data runs on Oracle databases, making the platform deeply mission critical and exceptionally sticky. Even in a world where agents autonomously execute business processes, enterprises will always need a 'single source of truth' to reconcile transactions, diagnose failures, and audit agent driven decisions. Today, Oracle is leveraging this foundation to transform into a specialized cloud and AI business. Their strategy is to use their 'data moat' to pull AI workloads onto their infrastructure business (OCI). Because so much of the world's mission critical information already lives in Oracle databases, the company is using that position to attract AI training and inference workloads onto OCI. It is now the fourth largest hyperscaler but rather than compete head on with AWS, Azure, or Google, Oracle is partnering with them and giving enterprises multicloud flexibility. Interestingly, Oracle's late arrival to the cloud has actually worked in its favor as it could incorporate the industry's best architectural practices for its specific workloads. Even though this strategic pivot is logical, the market remains skeptical because cloud and AI infrastructure require enormous amounts of upfront capital. Early results are encouraging. Oracle is already generating solid cloud margins at its current scale, growing OCI consumption, and accelerating both its database and enterprise application businesses. Oracle is also being creative and securing billions in upfront payments from customers who essentially pay for their own hardware in exchange for guaranteed access to 'compute'. We believe that the debt/EBITDA ratios for Oracle will be manageable as they build out this infrastructure and consolidated ROIC's will be more than sufficient. With OCI, the database, and its applications portfolio, Oracle now participates in three of the five layers of the AI stack. We established our position recently at 20x 2026E EPS, which we view as attractive given the company's quality and the potential upside. |
| U | Unity Software runs two tightly linked businesses: Create Solutions, its real-time 3D engine used to build games and interactive experiences where it has a leading share in mobile game creation; and Grow Solutions, its advertising and monetization network that helps game developers acquire users and optimize revenue. This gives Unity a dual revenue model where it earns subscriptions and usage fees from creators and then derives performance based advertising revenue from live games. Unity sold off aggressively when Google unveiled Project Genie, an AI-powered tool for generating virtual worlds. We see this as a net positive for Unity. AI accelerates game creation which increases the volume of content that ultimately needs Unity's engine. The core functions of a real-time engine - physics, interaction, performance, and playability - that actually make a game playable remain irreplaceable and form the core of Unity's moat. Importantly, once the game is developed, it also has to be marketed in order to generate revenue. Here, Unity's Grow division is incorporating AI through a product called Vector, which is improving targeting, bidding, and monetization for developers. Unity's largest competitor in this business, AppLovin, has successfully incorporated AI into their business and is growing at a rapid pace while making supernormal margins (>80% EBITDA margins). While Unity is behind, we believe the current management team is taking the right steps to position the company as a credible competitor to AppLovin. Recent results have been encouraging. Unity has been a turnaround play with multiple management changes, write-offs, delayed product launches, and high stock based compensation (SBC) expenses. We think each of these metrics is improving for the better and the business, with very high incremental margins as Vector scales, has the potential to do close to $1 billion in adj. EBITDA in two years. At our cost base this translates to a valuation of less than 4x EV/Revenue and 9x EV/adj. EBITDA. |
| APP | Unity's largest competitor in this business, AppLovin, has successfully incorporated AI into their business and is growing at a rapid pace while making supernormal margins (>80% EBITDA margins) |
| NU | The top 5 positions in the portfolio are Precious Metals royalty companies, NFI, Nu Holdings, Unity Software and Amazon |
| AMZN | The top 5 positions in the portfolio are Precious Metals royalty companies, NFI, Nu Holdings, Unity Software and Amazon |
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