Investor Summary
Fund Strategy
FUND PERFORMANCE AS OF 31st December 2025
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| - | - | - |
Jonathan Ruffer delivers his final Investment Review after 31 years, reflecting on Ruffer's absolute return strategy that aims to avoid losses in any calendar year. The strategy works by exploiting market inefficiencies where investments become too cheap or expensive, using sophisticated portfolio construction to juxtapose assets and remove unknowable risks while offering upside potential. Ruffer reports meeting objectives strongly in 2025, reinforcing their long-term track record despite the 2023 setback. The manager observes a generational investment divide, where younger investors pursue high-return strategies in crypto and AI to achieve housing affordability, while traditional approaches prove inadequate. This speculative environment has confounded older investment wisdom, with the manager acknowledging his generation has been comprehensively wrong recently. While an inevitable market correction looms, its timing remains uncertain. The aftermath could range from manageable dislocations to systemic financial breakdown similar to historical crashes, depending on whether the financial system's fabric can withstand the eventual unwinding.
Ruffer's absolute return strategy aims to avoid losses in any calendar year through sophisticated portfolio construction that juxtaposes assets to remove market risk while capturing imbalanced risk-reward opportunities.
Manager expresses uncertainty about market direction, acknowledging his generation's wisdom has been comprehensively wrong over the past 18 months. Expects inevitable market correction but timing uncertain, with potential for either manageable dislocations or systemic financial system breakdown.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Absolute return, AI, crypto, Generational Divide, Housing Crisis, Market cycles, risk management | - | Manager discusses crypto as a vehicle for younger generations to achieve necessary returns for housing purchases, noting many have been successful for ten years or more. Describes crypto as part of educated, well-informed forays that can achieve 25% annual returns needed to triple capital in five years. AI mentioned alongside crypto as an investment avenue for achieving high returns necessary for younger generations to afford housing. Positioned as part of the new investment paradigm that has been working successfully for many investors over the past decade. Manager extensively discusses the generational divide in risk appetite, with younger investors taking educated risks in crypto and AI to achieve necessary returns. Contrasts this with traditional conservative approaches that cannot meet housing affordability requirements. |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | - | credit, Debt, gold, inflation, valuation | - | Ruffer highlights excessive sovereign debt, deglobalization, tariffs, and structural inflation as long-term threats to financial stability. The fund prioritizes protection over prediction, balancing assets that defend against both inflationary and deflationary shocks. Debt dynamics remain central to future market volatility and return dispersion. |
| Jul 2 2025 | 2025 Q2 | - | capital preservation, Derivatives, inflation, regime change, volatility | - | The letter emphasizes preparing portfolios for regime shifts characterized by higher inflation, volatility, and elevated debt levels. Management highlights all-weather positioning using defensive assets, derivatives, and selective equities. Capital preservation alongside real returns is the primary objective. |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Jan 15 2025 | 2024 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Oct 31 2024 | 2024 Q3 | - | - | - | |
| Nov 7 2022 | 2024 Q2 | - | - | - | |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | - | - | - | |
| Nov 3 2024 | 2023 Q4 | - | - | - | |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | - | - | - |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 Q4 |
AIAI has been integrated into RGA's research process through tools like NotebookLM, Gems in Gemini, and Claude Code. The firm views AI as a force multiplier for human judgment rather than a replacement, emphasizing the Kasparov Law principle. They believe the market narrative around AI displacement is swinging to unhelpful extremes, creating investment opportunities. |
Machine Learning Automation Software Productivity Innovation |
CryptoFund focuses exclusively on Bitcoin accumulation through disciplined cycle-aware positioning. Manager shifted to defensive posture in Q3 anticipating correction, ending Q4 with two-thirds Bitcoin and one-third cash. Going forward, fund will hold only Bitcoin based on data showing altcoins have terrible odds with only 1-in-70 beating Bitcoin historically. |
Bitcoin Altcoins Cycles Accumulation Volatility | |
Risk AppetiteManager emphasizes disciplined risk management through cycle awareness rather than market timing. Fund maintains cash cushion during high-risk periods and deploys capital countercyclically. Approach focuses on behavioral edge by having cash available when fear creates best entry points and avoiding leverage that leads to forced selling. |
Leverage Cash Volatility Positioning Discipline | |
| 2025 Q3 |
CreditFund focuses on elevated carry in high yield credit markets with spreads remaining range bound below 300 basis points. Manager believes high yield credit is fundamentally strong but valuations are tight, particularly in higher quality BBs. Strategy emphasizes sourcing positions with higher income levels given limited price appreciation opportunities. |
High Yield Credit Spreads Carry Investment Grade |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through | |
ValuationAI-related companies continue to command premium valuations while other sectors remain reasonably priced. This valuation divide continues to guide investment activity, with the fund remaining wary of companies trading at exceedingly high valuations that imply exceptional multi-year earnings growth. |
Premium Divide Discipline Stretched Reasonable | |
| 2025 Q2 |
InflationInflation has continued to be a persistent feature in Japan and has prompted changes in both corporate and consumer behavior. Importantly, inflation has fed through to corporate earnings and equity performance. Companies that have successfully passed on higher costs to consumers have benefited from improved operating margins. |
Inflation Corporate Earnings Operating Margins Consumer Behavior Cost Pass-through |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
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| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
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| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
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| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
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| No industry data available | |||