| ANNUALIZED SINCE INCEPTION | QUARTERLY | YTD |
|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
Ruffer's Total Return Fund navigated March's geopolitical crisis with mixed results, as the US-Israeli attack on Iran drove oil prices up 60% while most other assets fell. The fund's 5% crude oil allocation and energy equities, topped up in prior months, were major positive contributors. However, equity pain was significant as preferred markets like UK, Europe and Japan were hit by Persian Gulf supply concerns. Gold's 12% decline despite its geopolitical hedge reputation was notable. The fund's credit and volatility protections performed positively, among the few protective assets globally to do so. Portfolio activity included reducing Chinese equities that didn't price prolonged conflict and adding 15% to five-year gilts, capitalizing on inappropriately high yields from hedge fund positioning. The fund maintains defensive positioning against further market stress while keeping exposure to global capital expenditure themes. Bonds offer attractive each-way positioning whether geopolitical tensions ease or economic conditions deteriorate further.
Capital preservation through diversified protection strategies while maintaining selective growth exposure, positioned for volatile geopolitical environment with emphasis on energy and defensive assets.
The fund remains positioned for protection against further market stress while maintaining exposure to global capital expenditure opportunities. Bonds offer good each-way attractiveness whether the Iran situation improves or deteriorates further.
| Date | Letter | Tickers | Keywords | Pitches | Quick Takes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31 2026 | 2026 Q1 | 0019.HK, BABA, BP, COIN | Bonds, Crisis, energy, Geopolitical, Iran, oil, Protection, volatility | - | Ruffer navigated March's Iran crisis with energy gains offsetting broader equity losses. Oil allocation and volatility protections delivered while gold disappointed as a geopolitical hedge. Portfolio actively repositioned, reducing Chinese exposure and adding UK gilts at attractive yields. Fund maintains defensive stance against further market stress while selectively exposed to global capex opportunities. |
| Jan 2 2026 | 2025 Q4 | - | Absolute return, AI, crypto, Generational Divide, Housing Crisis, Market cycles, risk management | - | Ruffer's founder delivers his final review, defending their absolute return strategy that exploits market inefficiencies through sophisticated asset juxtaposition. Despite strong 2025 performance, he acknowledges generational investment divides and speculative excess in crypto/AI. An inevitable market correction approaches with uncertain timing and potentially systemic consequences for the financial system. |
| Oct 1 2025 | 2025 Q3 | MSFT | AI, China, Debt, gold, inflation, momentum, technology, value | - | After fifty years of market gains, Ruffer prioritizes valuation over momentum, owning gold miners as currency hedge while avoiding overvalued tech despite strong fundamentals. Structural risks include unsustainable Western debt and currency debasement. Inflationary catalysts from job repatriation, tariffs, and supply chain disruption create eventual reckoning risk requiring defensive positioning. |
| Jul 2 2025 | 2025 Q2 | EL, M | All-Weather, Antifragile, Derivatives, Generational, inflation, risk management, valuation, volatility | - | Ruffer warns markets trade at unsustainable valuations driven by generational wealth gaps forcing younger investors into high-risk strategies. Portfolio positioned defensively through derivatives and antifragile assets while expecting eventual inflationary regime change from deglobalization and wage pressures. All-weather approach combines downside protection with upside participation. |
| Apr 8 2025 | 2025 Q1 | PG | Bubble, Crisis, Leverage, Markets, Recession, regime change, risk, valuation | - | Markets face maximum valuations, peak leverage, and regime change simultaneously. US price-to-sales ratios at 3x versus historical 1x danger threshold, while 64% retail equity participation echoes 1929 levels. Record government and hedge fund debt compromises dip-buying ability. As markets sense the impossibility of these conditions coexisting, they will fall and drag the economy into recession. |
| Jan 15 2025 | 2024 Q4 | BMY, T | AI, Bubble, Margins, Protection, risk management, Tech Stocks, US Equities, valuation | - | Ruffer maintains defensive positioning despite two years of underperformance, citing extreme US market valuations with S&P 500 at historically high multiples. The manager compares current conditions to past bubble collapses, particularly the Nifty Fifty, and believes the Magnificent Seven's concentrated market weight and elevated margins create systemic risk requiring continued protection-first approach. |
| Oct 31 2024 | 2024 Q3 | BAYRY, BP, NEM, PUK | Bonds, Currency, Defensive, fiscal policy, global, inflation, Multi-Asset, Precious Metals | - | Ruffer's defensive multi-asset fund lost 1.9% in October on bond/equity weakness and yen decline, but management maintains conviction in currency convergence and precious metals themes. Fund remains defensively positioned for potential fiscal-driven market corrections while selectively adding to yen exposure and silver positions, anticipating policy-driven volatility ahead. |
| Nov 7 2022 | 2024 Q2 | BABA, BP, PFE, ROG.SW | capital preservation, credit, duration, Multi-Asset, oil, Protection, risk management, Yen | - | Ruffer maintains capital preservation focus while markets show dangerous combination of extreme positioning and compressed risk premiums. Fund positioned for protection through yen exposure and credit spreads, with 25% equity allocation including increased oil and gold mining positions for participation. Strategy balances downside protection with upside participation as positioning hasn't adjusted to higher risk-free rates. |
| Apr 15 2024 | 2024 Q1 | BABA, BP, PFE, RKT.L | Bonds, commodities, Defensive, Geopolitical, gold, inflation, liquidity, Yen | - | Ruffer delivered positive April returns through commodity exposure despite market headwinds from tightening liquidity and persistent inflation concerns. The fund maintains defensive positioning with cash and derivatives while trimming profitable commodity positions. Extended market positioning appears misaligned with geopolitical risks, supporting the manager's cautious stance preparing for eventual market-friendly conditions. |
| Nov 3 2024 | 2023 Q4 | BABA, BP, NVDA, PFE, RHHBY | AI, Bonds, China, gold, inflation, liquidity, Multi-Asset, rates | - | Ruffer's defensive multi-asset fund declined 0.4% in February amid AI-driven market highs and unstable single-stock volatility. Low 16% equity exposure with 67% in bonds and cash positions for persistent inflation through gold and commodities. Managers expect liquidity risks as central banks shrink balance sheets, maintaining downside protection while benefiting from attractive real returns in short-dated bonds. |
| Sep 30 2023 | 2023 Q3 | BABA, BP, C, COTY, EWBC, JXN, RYA.L | Bonds, capital preservation, global, Multi-Asset, rates, risk management | - | Ruffer delivered positive November returns through tactical bond duration and equity additions that captured the sharp rally in both asset classes. Key stock picks in Ryanair, Coty, and US banks contributed positively while Chinese equities lagged. Managers reduced exposures late in the month citing returning market complacency and vulnerability should the narrow soft-landing path deviate. |
| QUARTER | THEMES | TAGS |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 Q1 |
OilCrude oil prices rose over 60% in March due to the US-Israeli attack on Iran, with the fund's 5% crude oil allocation being a major positive contributor. Energy exposures were actively traded during the crisis. |
Oil Energy Iran Geopolitical Crisis |
GeopoliticalThe joint US-Israeli attack on Iran was the major market event, causing oil price spikes and broad asset price declines. The fund positioned for prolonged conflict scenarios while reducing exposure to assets that didn't price this risk. |
Iran Geopolitical Conflict Risk Crisis | |
VolatilityMarch brought significant market volatility with all asset classes falling except oil. The fund's volatility protections performed positively, providing some of the few protective returns globally during the crisis. |
Volatility Protection Hedges Risk Crisis | |
GoldGold fell 12% in March despite being touted as the ultimate geopolitical hedge. The three-year run-up in gold prices could not all be attributed to central bank buying, and volatility brought more sellers than expected. |
Gold Hedge Central Banks Volatility Selling | |
| 2025 Q4 |
CryptoManager describes crypto as a vehicle for younger professionals to achieve necessary capital appreciation (25% annually) to afford housing. Notes that crypto warriors have learned not to sell during crashes and will continue until the market doesn't. Acknowledges this trend could continue for an extended period before an inevitable collapse. |
Bitcoin Digital Assets Speculation Housing Generational |
AIMentioned as part of the speculative investment approach younger generations use to achieve outsized returns. Grouped with crypto as a high-risk, high-reward strategy that has been successful for many over the past decade. No specific investment thesis provided beyond its role in generational wealth building. |
Artificial Intelligence Technology Speculation Growth | |
Risk AppetiteManager discusses how current market participants have learned to ignore volatility and maintain positions through crashes. Describes a generational shift where traditional risk management has been abandoned in favor of 'never look down' mentality. Notes this creates systemic risk when the trend eventually reverses. |
Volatility Market Risk Speculation Systemic Risk | |
| 2025 Q3 |
GoldGold mining stocks are a key part of the Praetorian guard with substantial positions recently reduced. Gold price is viewed as a mysterious store of value at a time when currencies may not be as stable as in the past. |
Gold Miners Store of Value Currency Valuation Protection |
AIAI is described as a really big deal and a significant technological advance that is part of broader structural changes affecting traditional industries and allowing China to selectively target Western enterprises. |
Technology Disruption China Innovation | |
InflationThe manager expects inflationary pressures from repatriation of jobs to local workforces who will demand higher wages, tariffs acting as accelerators, and the end of optimized supply chains that kept costs low. |
Wages Tariffs Supply Chain Labor Costs | |
ValueValuation is considered more important than fundamentals attractiveness. High valuations cluster around unknown things like Magnificent Seven tech companies which are owned in tiny size due to valuation concerns despite good fundamental outlook. |
Valuation Fundamentals Tech Pricing Selectivity | |
| 2025 Q2 |
InflationManager expects eventual inflationary outcome driven by wages at generational lows, potential immigration restrictions, and balkanisation of traditional industries reversing globalization's deflationary impact. Views brief deflation as misleading if markets fall. |
Wages Immigration Globalization Deflation Prices |
VolatilityPortfolio includes derivatives anticipating volatility through put options on markets and instruments long volatility. Manager emphasizes need for antifragile assets that perform well during market stress. |
Put Options Derivatives Antifragile Market Stress | |
Risk AppetiteYounger generations require investments to work quickly with constantly benign conditions, driving demand for high-return instruments like the Magnificent 7. This creates a dynamic where successful investment demands sunny uplands. |
Magnificent 7 Generational Quick Returns High Risk | |
| 2025 Q1 |
ValuationUS equity market price-to-sales ratio briefly moved through 3x in late 2021 and again late last year, compared to historical amber light threshold of 1x. Financial markets have a remarkable habit of turning good companies into bad investments when valuations are excessive. |
Price-to-sales Margins Expensive Overvalued Bubble |
LeverageThe world has become increasingly, excessively leveraged with governments having higher debt to GDP ratios than ever and hedge funds showing gross exposure in the 100th percentile. This compromises ability to buy the dip as investors have already committed all troops elsewhere. |
Debt Indebtedness Exposure Overleveraged Risk | |
Risk Appetite64% of American citizens now own US equities, echoing dangerous levels of public engagement seen in 1929. Many investors hope for setbacks to buy the dip, but this strategy has become too crowded and mechanical, with success breeding complacency. |
Retail Participation Crowded Complacency Mechanical | |
| 2024 Q4 |
ValuationThe S&P 500 is trading at a forward multiple of 23, matching levels from 2000 that ended poorly. The manager believes US equity markets are the outstanding outlier on valuation, largely due to new generation tech stocks. A scenario where the market trades at 15 times forward earnings with 20% earnings decline could halve the market. |
Bubble Multiples Overvaluation Tech Margins |
Risk AppetiteThe fund maintains a portfolio positioned for system shock despite two years of underperformance. The manager emphasizes the importance of protection in conventional assets and retaining defensive positioning given extreme market valuations. They continue to prioritize safety first given current market conditions. |
Protection Defensive System Shock Safety Hedging | |
AIThe Magnificent Seven tech stocks account for a third of S&P market value, with their high margins potentially vulnerable to reversal. The manager discusses how AI inroads into traditional sectors might reverse, and how a bounce back of earnings from AI victims would not compensate for potential earnings drops from AI leaders. |
Magnificent Seven Tech Margins Disruption Concentration | |
| 2024 Q3 |
YenThe fund maintains conviction in yen value despite October weakness, re-establishing call options to complement direct exposure. Interest rate convergence between Japan and other central banks expected to support yen strength into 2025. |
Currency Japan Interest Rates Convergence Derivatives |
ChinaChinese equities were main detractors due to dollar strength and Trump presidency anticipation with high tariff promises. Equities trade near trough multiples despite continuing domestic stimulus, presenting value opportunity. |
Equities Tariffs Stimulus Valuations Underowned | |
GoldReintroduced silver position at 2% allocation alongside 1% platinum exposure to complement gold holdings. These metals historically trade with high beta to gold price, offering potential for outsized returns if gold bull market continues. |
Precious Metals Silver Platinum Beta Bullion | |
InflationFiscal expansions in US, UK and China potentially putting upward pressure on inflation over next few years. This combined with better economic data led investors to dial back expectations for rapid rate cuts in 2025. |
Fiscal Policy Rate Cuts Economic Data Pressure Expectations | |
| 2024 Q2 |
Risk AppetiteMarkets display dichotomy with 69% of fund managers considering Magnificent 7 most crowded trade while half expect large-cap US growth to lead higher. Positioning increasingly extreme with leverage involved creates dangerous combination given current valuations. |
Positioning Crowded Leverage Valuations Extreme |
RatesInvestor positioning hasn't adjusted to reflect higher risk-free rates above 5%. Risk premiums particularly low in US market. Adding duration in fourth quarter provided positive year-end contribution to fund performance. |
Risk-free Duration Premiums Positioning | |
YenYen remains key protection with many reasons for strengthening. Critical role is that yen strength likely occurs against backdrop of financial stress, providing portfolio protection during market deterioration. |
Protection Financial Stress Strengthening | |
Credit StressCredit spreads provide exposure should compressed risk premiums reverse. If liquidity becomes less available, significant re-pricing of corporate debt likely to occur in current environment. |
Spreads Liquidity Corporate Re-pricing | |
OilRecently increased position in oil supports participation should current benign environment persist. Oil exposure part of strategy to participate in growth while maintaining capital preservation mandate. |
Position Increased Participation Benign | |
GoldGold mining equities provide exposure allowing participation in current environment without compromising capital preservation mandate. Part of 25% equity allocation strategy for upside participation. |
Mining Participation Preservation Allocation | |
| 2024 Q1 |
CommoditiesCommodities provided shelter from market volatility with both base and precious metals benefiting from expectations of stronger US economy and potential Chinese economic bottoming. Gold and oil rose together despite typically moving in opposite directions. |
Gold Silver Oil Copper Base Metals |
GoldGold mining stocks performed strongly during the month. The fund maintained exposure to gold bullion and gold mining equities, with silver positions added in March starting to catch up with gold's rise as anticipated. |
Gold Miners Precious Metals Silver Bullion | |
LiquidityGlobal liquidity expansion that accompanied stock market rises over past 18 months may have started to reverse. US bank reserve balances at the Fed fell by $172bn, the largest monthly fall since September 2022, creating a less friendly market backdrop. |
Bank Reserves Fed Market Liquidity Monetary Policy | |
YenThe fund's protective yen position continued to detract from performance as dollar/yen interest rate differentials widened in favor of the greenback. Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened late in the month, selling billions of dollars to defend the yen near the 160 level. |
Currency Japan Dollar Intervention Interest Rates | |
| 2023 Q4 |
AIAI-fuelled rally drove markets to new highs with Nvidia's earnings announcement causing a 16% single-day rally. The market jitters around a single company's earnings hints at an unstable trend that could surprise to the downside. |
Nvidia Semiconductors Technology Volatility Momentum |
ChinaChinese equity markets rebounded following announcement by securities regulator banning stock lending. Sentiment and positioning reached extreme lows reflected in attractive valuations, with incremental support from Chinese authorities. |
Emerging Markets Valuations Regulation Sentiment | |
InflationPersistent inflation expected to remain an issue as policy makers show willingness to deliver swift response to economic pain. Most realistic long-term solution to government deficits is inflation. Fund positioned through gold, inflation-linked bonds and commodities. |
Gold Commodities Bonds Policy Deficits | |
RatesBond yields continued rising as expectations for 2024 interest rate cuts fell. Long-dated UK inflation-linked bonds were positive contributors as oversold dynamics reversed, while rate-sensitive holdings like gold mining equities and yen suffered. |
Bonds Central Banks Yields Duration | |
LiquidityFocus remains on liquidity risks as central bankers continue shrinking balance sheets. Meaningful fiscal or monetary support likely only to arrive after asset prices have been hit. Portfolio leans on attractive real return in cash and short-dated bonds. |
Central Banks Cash Risk Management Balance Sheets | |
| 2023 Q3 |
RatesFund positioned for falling interest rates by adding bond duration in recent months, taking advantage of compelling valuations with US ten year real yields reaching 2.5%. The November rally in fixed income was the largest contributor to returns as bonds experienced their best monthly return since 2008. |
Interest Rates Bond Duration Real Yields Fixed Income |
Risk AppetiteFund tactically increased equity exposure as risk assets struggled with rising yields in prior months. However, managers reduced exposures toward month-end citing high equity valuations, tight credit spreads and low volatility suggesting complacency may have returned to financial markets. |
Risk Assets Equity Exposure Credit Spreads Market Complacency | |
ChinaChinese equities continued to underperform despite Xi Jinping's visit to San Francisco being viewed as positive for US-China relations. Managers acknowledge good reasons for high risk premium on Chinese equities but note depressed valuations and increasing likelihood of policy stimulus. |
Chinese Equities US-China Relations Policy Stimulus Valuations |
| Date | Pitch Type | Author | Ticker | Company | Industry | Sub Industry | Bull / Bear | Exchange | Keywords | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Elevator Pitches found | ||||||||||
| TICKER | COMMENTARY |
|---|---|
| BP | BP ADR represents 1.7% of the fund as the largest equity holding, part of the energy allocation that was topped up in October, December and February. |
| COIN | Coinbase represents 1.1% of the fund as the second largest equity holding. |
| BABA | Alibaba Group represents 0.7% of the fund through both ADR and direct holdings, but the allocation to Chinese equities was reduced as they didn't price a prolonged conflict. |
| 0019.HK | Swire Pacific represents 0.6% of the fund as one of the top five equity holdings. |
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Bought | Shares Bought | % Change | Weight % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Buys Data | |||||
| Ticker | Put/Call | Amount Sold | Shares Sold | % Change | Weight % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Recent Sells Data | ||||||
| Industry | Prev Quarter % | Current Quarter % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| No industry data available | |||
