Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
@JaguarAnalytics is emphatically bullish on LUNR and shares a full research note arguing the market underestimates Intuitive Machines’ leverage to NASA’s Artemis cadence and several “non-consensus” upside vectors. The near-term setup centers on the IM-2 Athena mission window (Feb 26), framed as a milestone-driven revenue spike if launch, landing, and data return occur within the same quarter. The author contrasts lumpy fixed-price CLPS economics with steadier OMES III services revenue, arguing Artemis program momentum helps de-risk funding continuity. The longer-duration rerating claim is tied to “permanent Artemis presence” infrastructure, especially via the Lanteris acquisition, which is positioned as expanding the company from episodic lunar deliveries into recurring satellite bus, power, and gateway-related revenue. Additional optionality is framed through defense satellite manufacturing exposure (“Golden Dome”), radioisotope power systems to survive lunar night, and KinetX-driven cislunar navigation/data-network monetization. The author also highlights prior mission execution issues (IM-1 tip-over) and describes engineering fixes intended to improve IM-2 outcomes. Overall, it’s a bullish, upside-surprise thesis built on program milestones plus perceived under-modeled adjacency expansion.

BSD Analysis:
This is an “infrastructure multiple” pitch attempting to move LUNR’s framing from mission contractor to platform prime, using acquisitions to claim step-function TAM expansion. The key underwriting hinge is integration and delivery: a higher run-rate narrative only matters if acquired capabilities translate into visible backlog conversion, margin profile, and cash discipline rather than headline revenue math. CLPS remains inherently binary around launch/landing outcomes and milestone timing, so quarter-to-quarter volatility can persist even if the long-run story is intact. The more durable valuation support would come from recurring engineering/services and data-network style revenues, but investors will demand proof of attach rates, pricing power, and customer diversity beyond NASA. The defense “optionality” can be meaningful, yet it’s the least bankable until contract wins are disclosed—so treat it as upside, not base case. Net: if management proves repeatable execution across multiple missions while demonstrating that the post-acquisition portfolio is monetizable with improving margins, the investor base can rotate from speculative to strategic; if not, the stock can remain dominated by event-risk and sentiment cycles.

Actual Post Content:
$LUNR Intuitive Machines -- I usually reserve notes like this exclusively for Jag clients, but I'm in good mood, so it's your lucky day. Extensive research here. Conclusion: I don't own enough shares! Jag research: https://jaguaranalytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/LUNR-Note.pdf Slide deck: https://jaguaranalytics.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/Space_Infrastructure_Monopoly.pdf https://x.com/i/status/2013022459138613272 Intuitive Machines (LUNR) January 18, 2026 Video Review HERE; Slide Deck HERE Intuitive Machines (LUNR) – Extensive research presented below. As with every opportunity, I look for angles that are not in consensus. Things that are not common knowledge in public domain today but coming soon. Creating a setup to materially surprise to upside. Knowing the timing, importance, and impactful nature of these “hidden angles” makes a world of difference in portfolio. So, here we go: On Jan 17th, 2026, NASA began rolling the fully stacked Artemis II rocket and Orion spacecraft out of Vehicle Assembly Building at Kennedy Space Center to launch pad. What does it mean for LUNR? Intuitive Machines' revenue pipeline is heavily tied to NASA’s Artemis campaign (via CLPS and OMES III contracts). In the past, delays to the SLS rocket (the vehicle rolling out today) have caused uncertainty for the entire timeline of lunar return. Seeing the physical rocket move to the pad confirms that NASA is executing on schedule for the human return to the moon. Volatile Revenues: CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services): Think of this as "FedEx for the Moon." Instead of NASA building its own robotic landers, it hires private companies (like Intuitive Machines) to deliver cargo. NASA pays a fixed price for the delivery; LUNR handles the engineering, launch vehicle booking, and landing. Unlike standard hourly consulting, CLPS contracts are fixed-price and paid out in chunks based on hitting specific technical milestones. The largest tranches of CLPS revenue are typically recognized around Launch (scheduled for Feb 26th for IM-2) and Landing/Data Return. More on this later. Steady Revenues: OMES III (Omnibus Multidiscipline Engineering Services III): This is a “Services & Staffing” contract. Intuitive Machines (via a Joint Venture) provides high-level engineers to NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center to work on satellite servicing, navigation, and orbital robotic maintenance. This is the opposite of CLPS. It is a Cost-Plus-Fixed-Fee contract with a ceiling of $719 million over 5 years. NASA pays for the engineers' time plus a guaranteed profit margin. Revenue is recognized continuously as work is performed (monthly/quarterly). How Does SLS Impact these Two Programs? - The SLS rocket is carrying the humans (Artemis II crew). This effectively locks in the budget for the robotic supply chain (CLPS). NASA needs LUNR's landers to scout the south pole for ice before the SLS crew attempts to land there on Artemis III. The success of Artemis II with smooth rollout reduces the risk of budget raids, ensuring the OMES III funding remains stable, allowing LUNR to continue recognizing that steady, reliable revenue without interruption. A significant catalyst ahead is IM-2 “Athena” mission on Feb 26th: South Pole lunar landing to search for water and ice on the Moon. The primary objective is to land on the Moon’s South Pole. This is the same region NASA intends to send astronauts on Artemis III in the years ahead. The headline payload is NASA’s PRIME-1 (Polar Resources Ice Mining Experiment). It involves a drill that will bore 3 feet into the lunar soil to find water ice. This is the Holy Grail for a permanent lunar economy (water = rocket fuel). LUNR is deploying a 4G/LTE communications node for Nokia. They will deploy a small rover (MAPP) and a "hopper" drone (MicroNova) that will drive/fly away from the lander and try to stream 4G video back to the lander to prove high-speed internet works on the Moon. The Micro-Nova is a small drone that will detach from the lander, fly into a permanently shadowed crater (where it is incredibly cold and dark), look for ice, and then hop back out. Two things to keep in mind about this IM-2 Athena mission on Feb 26th: Two Years Ago this Mission Failed: During the IM-1 Odysseus landing on February 22, 2024, the spacecraft came in with too much horizontal speed. One of its landing legs caught on a rock or divot, causing the leg to snap and the lander to slowly tip over onto its side. Despite being on its side, it became the first US commercial vehicle to soft-land on the Moon. It successfully transmitted data and photos back to Earth. However, because it was tipped over, its solar panels were not optimally pointed at the sun, which significantly shortened its battery life and mission duration. How IM-2 is Different (The Fix): The company spent the last two years specifically engineering the IM-2 Athena lander to prevent another tip over. The landing gear has been reinforced to handle higher lateral loads. The software glitch that disabled the laser rangefinders on IM-1 (forcing them to land partially blind) has been corrected. The Athena lander carries the drill and the hopper, making it heavier and potentially more stable, provided the descent software kills that horizontal drift properly this time. Revenue Impact from this Very Important Mission (Expect Big Spike): Based on historical trends for non launch quarters (like Q2/Q3 2024), revenue typically hovers in the $50M – $70M range. With the IM-2 launch scheduled for Feb 26, 2026, analysts are likely modeling a "Launch Milestone” quarter. If LUNR successfully lands in early March (still Q1) and completes the data downlink for NASA/Nokia, they could recognize the "Mission Complete" payments within the same quarter. This could push revenue toward $140M+, effectively doubling (+100%) the prior year's revenue. The setup for earnings beat in May (when Q1 is reported) is strong. But the key here is timing, and the launch could slip into Q2. NASA wants to establish a “permanent Artemis presence” on the moon. This is by far the most exciting part of my LUNR bull case, so keep reading. The permanent Artemis presence is the difference between camping and building a house. In the Apollo era in late 1960’s, we went for a few days (camping) and left. Permanent presence means NASA is building fixed infrastructure that stays there forever. By acquiring Lanteris Space Systems (formerly Maxar Space Systems), Intuitive Machines effectively bought the contract to build the walls and power of that house. A permanent space station orbiting the Moon (think ISS, but lunar). Lanteris (via its Maxar heritage) holds the prime contract for the PPE (Power and Propulsion Element), the literal engine and power plant of the station. You can't have a base without comms. NASA needs a ring of satellites around the Moon to connect astronauts to Earth. Lanteris manufactures these satellite buses (the main body of the satellite). It also needs large-scale solar arrays and power distribution on the surface. LUNR with Lanteris acquisition will provide all of this. Revenue Impact is Meaningful (We are Talking 4x Multiplier): Before this deal, Intuitive Machines was generating roughly $200M - $250M in trailing revenue (mostly CLPS). Lanteris brings approximately $625M - $630M in annual recurring revenue. This immediately jumps LUNR’s annual revenue run-rate to ~$850M+. So, we are looking at +280% to +300% increase in sales. But this is getting even better (more on this later). Lanteris brought roughly $685M in secured contracts (backlog) with them. This pushes Intuitive Machines' total backlog to nearly $1 Billion ($920M+). But here is the thing: That $630 million figure is backward-looking. This figure does not include the Artemis "upside." It represents the status quo revenue from contracts Lanteris already had on the books, mostly commercial satellites and the initial design phase of the gateway, mainly building massive broadcasting satellites for companies like SiriusXM and Intelsat. The “permanent Artemis presence” that we are talking about is all incremental. NASA needs a "moon buggy" for astronauts to drive around the South Pole base. This is a potential $4.6 billion program over 15 years. Before the acquisition, LUNR might have been seen as "too small" to manufacture a human-rated vehicle alone. With Lanteris' factory (which buildss heavy, reliable spacecraft), they are now the prime contender to win the manufacturing contract. Once the Gateway is up (Artemis IV and beyond), NASA needs refueling, cargo delivery, and expansion modules. LUNR can now bid to build those modules and deliver them. Three Discreet Hidden Angles: So, as I am typing all this, I am telling myself: LUNR current market cap of $3.4 billion is just too low! But then I discover even more hidden angles in my research, all creating more sources of upside and none are currently modeled into consensus view. The "Golden Dome" Defense Play (Non-NASA Revenue): Most investors view LUNR as a "NASA stock," but the Lanteris acquisition quietly unlocked a massive door into the Department of Defense (DoD). The Golden Dome requires hundreds of satellites in Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) and Geostationary Orbit (GEO). Before acquiring Lanteris, LUNR couldn't bid on these huge satellite manufacturing contracts. Now, they own the factory that builds the heavy "buses" (satellite bodies) needed for this program. If LUNR announces even a sub-contract win for a slice of this $151B pie, the stock could re-rate from a speculative space explorer to a prime defense contractor (which commands much higher, more stable valuations). The "Nuclear Option" (Surviving the Night): While everyone focuses on landing on the Moon, the real technical hurdle is surviving the night. The lunar night lasts 14 Earth days and drops to -250°F, killing most electronics (batteries freeze and die). Intuitive Machines has been quietly winning contracts (like the $8.2M award from the Air Force Research Lab) to develop Radioisotope Power Systems (Nuclear). If they successfully demo this nuclear tech (using Stirling engines to convert heat to power), they become the only provider capable of keeping commercial payloads alive for years instead of just 14 days. The "Cislunar GPS" Monopoly (KinetX Acquisition): In late 2025, Intuitive Machines completed the acquisition of KinetX, a niche flight dynamics company. This flew under the radar for most retail investors. KinetX isn't just a software shop; they are the world leaders in deep-space navigation. By owning them, LUNR effectively controls the "GPS of the Moon." As other nations (Europe, Japan) and companies try to fly to the Moon, they will likely pay LUNR to navigate them there because the Space Data Network LUNR is building acts as a toll road. This creates a high margin software/service revenue stream that costs very little to maintain but scales infinitely as traffic to the Moon increases. It’s the "AWS" (Amazon Web Services) model for lunar space. Investors bought that dip on Lanteris news as fast as they could. Now it all makes sense why. I learned a lot too during this process. You’re welcome! It was a typo in research. Meant to say IM-3. I’ve been involved in $LUNR stock for over 2 years. Talked about IM-2 myself last year. $LUNR Tomorrow, Feb 26, the launch window for 2nd CLPS delivery, IM-2, opens to look for water/ice on the Moon's South Pole. 10-day journey on SpaceX Falcon 9. Touchdown on Mar 6. NASA is paying $62M to transport two payloads, up from $46M initial est. https://nasa.gov/directorates/stmd/five-facts-about-nasas-moon-bound-technology/

URL: https://x.com/JaguarAnalytics/status/2013022459138613272

Pitch Summary:
The Team recently initiated a position in MDA Space (MDA) 7% of 2030 at par value (100.00). We view the secular increase in global defence spending as an investable theme due to the long-term great-power rivalry and U.S. assertiveness on NATO defence spending targets, providing a tailwind for high-yielding credit investments in the space. MDA is a publicly-traded Canadian company ($4.6 billion equity capitalization) that manufactures and provides services in satellite systems, robotics and space operations, and geo-intelligence.

BSD Analysis:
MDA is quietly rebuilding Canada’s national space champion at a time when space is becoming geopolitically relevant again. Satellite systems, robotics, and earth observation are no longer speculative science projects. Government-backed contracts provide revenue visibility others in space lack. Investors lump MDA in with hype-driven space equities and miss the difference. Execution and backlog quality matter more than launch headlines. Margins expand as programs move from development to production. This is defense-adjacent space infrastructure, not retail investor fantasy.

Pitch Summary:
Along with Coherent, other notable trims during the quarter were iRhythm and MACOM. iRhythm provides the Zio wearable cardiac monitoring devices to assist physicians in diagnosing cases of cardiac arrhythmias that signal elevated stroke risks. The company delivered a strong quarter that included solid growth in its core services and improving cash flow trends. After a strong 2025 driven by company-specific profit cycle tailwinds and market share gains, we trimmed the position to take profits and right-size the investment. Growth may moderate in 2026 ahead of what we expect to be another compelling product cycle beginning in 2027.

BSD Analysis:
iRhythm sits at the intersection of cardiac diagnostics, data, and workflow integration, where outcomes matter more than cost. Its continuous monitoring platform is embedded into physician decision-making, creating stickier adoption than one-off devices. Reimbursement clarity has improved, removing a major overhang. Growth remains strong as arrhythmia detection moves earlier in care pathways. Investors worry about losses and scaling costs. But operating leverage emerges quickly once utilization rises. Clinical data remains the core moat. This is diagnostics adoption, not gadget churn. Execution now matters more than awareness.

Pitch Summary:
Ferguson is a leading North American distributor of plumbing, HVAC, waterworks and related building materials. The company’s scale supports strong product availability, efficient delivery and continued investment in e-commerce, supply chain capabilities and private brands. Its history of successful tuck-in acquisitions and steady organic growth positions it to gain more share in a large, fragmented market. We exited the position as valuation moved higher and the risk-reward profile became less compelling relative to other construction and housing-related names in the portfolio.

BSD Analysis:
Ferguson is a mission-critical distributor of plumbing, HVAC, and construction supplies, monetizing replacement demand rather than new-build optimism. Once infrastructure exists, it needs constant maintenance, which anchors recurring volume even in weak housing cycles. Scale matters enormously in distribution, and Ferguson’s footprint gives it pricing power and inventory advantage smaller peers can’t match. Contractors value availability and reliability more than marginal price differences. Investors fixate on housing slowdowns and miss the durability of repair-and-remodel demand. Margin discipline reflects execution, not luck. The business throws off cash without balance-sheet drama. This is logistics infrastructure hiding inside a construction ticker. Boring distribution wins when assets age.

Pitch Summary:
Along with Veeva, we also ended our investment campaigns in Snowflake and Ferguson during the quarter. Snowflake is a leading player in data infrastructure, enabling organizations to unlock greater value from their data estates. We exited the position following a strong run given the elevated valuation paired with the potential for decelerating revenue growth due to uneven consumption trends. Furthermore, Snowflake is most commonly used by customers for structured data; there is the potential for large language models to allow enterprises to effectively unlock the benefits of unstructured data, bringing Snowflake's value proposition more into question. This is a question we continue to monitor and learn about.

BSD Analysis:
Snowflake is still one of the most elegant data platforms ever built — but elegance alone doesn’t guarantee easy growth forever. Consumption-based pricing creates upside in good times and pain when customers optimize usage. Competition from hyperscalers is relentless and well-funded. That said, Snowflake remains best-in-class for multi-cloud data sharing and analytics. AI workloads are an opportunity, but monetization is still evolving. Margins will expand only if spending discipline improves. The platform is real; the question is pacing. Snowflake is transitioning from growth darling to adult software company. The franchise survives — the multiple won’t without execution.

Pitch Summary:
Waters is a leading provider of liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry instruments for pharmaceutical and industrial applications. Its franchise position in pharmaceutical quality assurance testing drives strong recurring revenue (consumables and software to enable the instrument installed base). We expect the company to benefit from a rebound in commercial and late-stage clinical pharma demand, an instrument replacement cycle and growing exposure to biologic medicines. We added to the position after strong quarterly results, as we believe the share price did not reflect improving biologics momentum, emerging revenue synergies and favorable regulatory trends.

BSD Analysis:
Waters is a precision instruments company hiding behind a boring exterior — and that’s exactly the appeal. Its chromatography and mass spectrometry tools are embedded in regulated workflows where switching is painful and risky. Demand is tied to pharma, biotech, and quality control, not hype cycles. Margins are consistently strong due to consumables and service revenue. Growth is steady, not spectacular, but incredibly reliable. R&D keeps the technology relevant without blowing up the cost base. Waters doesn’t chase trends; it waits for customers who can’t afford failure. This is life-sciences infrastructure with a long memory. Boring here is a feature.

Pitch Summary:
We also added to ServiceTitan, MongoDB and Waters during the quarter. ServiceTitan is a leading provider of vertical software solutions for the trades, including plumbing, HVAC and electrical. Its platform supports the entire workflow from lead generation to payment, generating revenue through subscriptions and usage-based processing. We see meaningful growth opportunities through new customer acquisition, upselling and expansion into additional trades. During the quarter, we increased our position following a pullback amid broader software industry weakness, reflecting our conviction in the durability of its profit cycle.

BSD Analysis:
ServiceTitan owns the operating system for plumbers, electricians, and contractors — the kind of businesses tech usually ignores. Once installed, the software becomes mission-critical, running scheduling, billing, and customer management. The market is fragmented, underpenetrated, and ripe for digitization. Growth has been strong, but profitability is still down the road due to heavy investment. The real value lies in pricing power as customers scale on the platform. Churn is low because ripping out core business software is painful. Execution risk is about balancing growth and discipline. This is vertical SaaS with real-world grit. If margins inflect, the rerate could be sharp.

Pitch Summary:
Carvana is one of the largest used car retailers in the US and operates a national e-commerce platform that provides broader selection, lower costs and a more convenient customer experience than traditional dealerships. We view the company as a differentiated, vertically integrated operator with strong advantages in sourcing, logistics, fulfillment and financing that create meaningful barriers to entry. With a small share of a large market, we believe Carvana has a long runway for growth as it scales nationally and captures efficiencies from its acquisition of ADESA’s US physical auction business, which adds a national network of wholesale vehicle auction facilities and supports improved unit economics.

BSD Analysis:
Carvana is a case study in how fast a business can go from market darling to near-death — and then claw its way back. Management has executed a brutal self-help plan, slashing costs, shrinking inventory risk, and restoring unit economics. The online used-car model still resonates with consumers despite macro headwinds. Debt remains heavy, making discipline non-negotiable. The business now has real operating leverage if volumes stabilize. But this is not a clean compounder — it’s a leveraged recovery story. Any stumble gets punished immediately. If execution holds, equity upside is real. This is high-risk, high-torque, no-margin-for-error investing.

Pitch Summary:
Astera Labs is a fabless provider of connectivity chips designed to address data, network and memory bandwidth bottlenecks in data centers. Modern GPUs and CPUs often cannot operate at full performance due to limitations in how they connect to memory and networks, and Astera’s chips help remove these constraints to improve system efficiency. The company also enables communication across different types of chips, supporting the industry’s shift toward heterogeneous computing. With continued cloud growth and rising AI demand driving rapid data center expansion, we believe Astera has a strong long-term growth opportunity. We took advantage of a recent pullback to start a GardenSM position.

BSD Analysis:
Astera Labs sits in a critical but underappreciated corner of AI infrastructure: high-speed connectivity between compute, memory, and accelerators. As AI systems scale, bottlenecks move away from raw compute and toward data movement — exactly where Astera plays. Its silicon and software solutions are tightly coupled, creating stickiness once designed in. Customer concentration is real, but that’s the price of selling into hyperscale ecosystems. Growth is explosive today, but expectations are already aggressive. Execution and roadmap delivery matter more than TAM narratives from here. Margins reflect high-value IP rather than commodity silicon. This is not a “picks and shovels” cliché — it’s a choke point. If AI keeps scaling, Astera stays relevant.

Pitch Summary:
During the quarter, we initiated new positions in L3Harris, Astera Labs and Carvana. L3Harris is a global aerospace and defense company. We believe it is well positioned to benefit from growing investment in next-generation missile defense and national security programs that require advanced propulsion, satellite systems and low-Earth orbit tracking capabilities. These efforts represent a large and expanding market opportunity that could support faster revenue growth over the coming years. In addition, as warfare increasingly involves low-cost drone threats, L3Harris’s strengths in sensing and counter-drone technologies position it well to address a critical and evolving defense need. We were able to initiate the new position during the quarter at an opportunistic entry point following recent share price weakness.

BSD Analysis:
L3Harris is a defense prime built for the kind of conflicts governments are actually preparing for, not the ones they talk about at conferences. Its focus on communications, sensors, space, and electronic warfare puts it at the nerve center of modern combat. Unlike platform-heavy peers, L3Harris thrives on systems that get upgraded, replaced, and expanded continuously. Defense budgets are no longer cyclical luxuries — they’re baseline requirements. Margins aren’t flashy, but visibility is excellent due to long-duration contracts. Integration from past mergers has improved, tightening execution and cost control. Cash flow supports dividends and reinvestment without balance-sheet stress. This is not a moonshot defense name. It’s a steady compounder built for a more unstable world.

Pitch Summary:
Spotify is a leading audio streaming platform that we believe is well positioned to increasingly monetize its dominant share in global music distribution and discovery through pricing, advertising and tiered premium subscriptions, with the upcoming super-premium tier serving as a meaningful catalyst. Strategic investments in podcasts, audiobooks and video diversify the business beyond music, where major labels control content. While shares declined during the quarter amid continued near-term advertising weakness, the company delivered a strong quarter with beats on users, revenue and margins, supported by improving engagement with video podcasts and ongoing monetization progress.

BSD Analysis:
Spotify controls global audio distribution, not just music streaming. Pricing power is improving as paid adoption and tiering mature. Podcast monetization is stabilizing after early missteps. Scale helps offset label economics over time. Discovery algorithms keep users loyal and engaged. Investors fear a hard margin ceiling that keeps moving higher. Cash flow inflection changed the narrative meaningfully. Competition fragments content but consolidates distribution. This is media infrastructure behaving like a utility.

Pitch Summary:
Veeva Systems has a leading customer relationship management platform for pharmaceutical sales and marketing organizations and has extended its franchise into pharmaceutical R&D through additional software modules. Despite reporting solid results with recurring revenue up 18%, driven by adoption of its R&D and commercial cloud solutions, we exited the position due to rising competitive and AI-driven risks.

BSD Analysis:
Veeva owns the operating system of regulated life sciences, where compliance risk creates brutal switching costs. CRM is just the entry point; clinical, quality, and regulatory modules drive expansion. Biotech funding slowdowns hurt growth optics, not customer dependence. Regulators implicitly entrench incumbents by expecting standardized workflows. Pricing power exists because failure is not an option. Investors compare Veeva to generic SaaS and miss the moat. As pipelines restart, growth reaccelerates quietly. Margins reflect mission-critical software economics. This is regulated SaaS that compounds on its own clock.

Pitch Summary:
MongoDB is a leading database software provider for modern, cloud-native applications that handle unstructured data. Its Atlas cloud platform is the primary growth driver, valued for its scalability and ease of use. During the quarter, results exceeded guidance, driven by continued Atlas growth, and the company raised its full-year outlook, signaling strong demand and improving fundamentals. We increased our position given our belief that MongoDB can gain share as enterprise adoption rises and as AI-related use cases expand.

BSD Analysis:
MongoDB sells developer infrastructure that powers modern applications where flexibility matters more than rigid schemas. Once adopted, it becomes deeply embedded in production environments. Growth slowed as customers optimized spend, testing the patience of momentum investors. But workloads don’t migrate off databases casually. Atlas improves revenue quality through consumption-based economics. Investors conflate optimization cycles with competitive loss. Long-term data growth favors flexible architectures. Margins expand as scale absorbs platform costs. This is developer gravity, not fad software.

Pitch Summary:
ROBLOX is a leading user-generated content platform with strong global growth and operating leverage, supported by AI-driven innovation and infrastructure advantages. The company delivered exceptional growth in 2025, driven by viral hit games such as Grow a Garden and Steal a Brainrot, both of which set global records for peak concurrent players. Recent results were strong, with revenue and bookings up 48% and 70% YoY, respectively. Despite this performance, shares declined sharply amid uncertainty about sustaining momentum after a massive year. While new blockbusters are difficult to predict, we believe management is making the right investments to support long-term growth, and we added to the position on weakness.

BSD Analysis:
Roblox is not a game company; it’s a platform where users create, socialize, and spend time at scale. Engagement remains massive even as monetization lags potential. The user base is aging up, extending the economic runway. Costs are high, profitability distant, and investors are impatient. But modest monetization improvements create enormous operating leverage. The creator ecosystem scales content organically without studio risk. Safety and governance remain challenges, not deal-breakers. This is optionality priced like uncertainty. Platforms don’t move in straight lines.

Pitch Summary:
Insmed is a biotechnology company focused on pulmonary diseases. Its lead product, ARIKAYCE®, continues to perform well, with management raising full-year revenue guidance following 22% YoY growth. The company also reported a strong launch for Brinsupri™ (brensocatib), the first approved therapy for non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis, generating $28 million in initial sales with more than 2,500 patients and 1,700 prescribers. We remain encouraged by Insmed’s execution and believe Brinsupri™ is likely to drive a substantial profit cycle in the coming quarters and years.

BSD Analysis:
Insmed is a rare-disease biotech built around deep focus rather than pipeline sprawl. Its lead franchise generates cash, reducing dependence on capital markets. Expansion into adjacent indications increases lifetime value without reinventing the model. Clinical execution, not science, is now the main swing factor. Investors worry about concentration risk, but specialization is the advantage here. Regulatory clarity and trial outcomes will drive sentiment shifts. Optionality exists without existential burn risk. This is biotech behaving more like an operator than a lottery ticket. Progress compounds slowly, then suddenly.

Pitch Summary:
Coherent is a leading supplier of lasers and photonics solutions used across data center, industrial and communications applications. Recent earnings were solid, with results exceeding expectations and management highlighting strong demand for high-speed optical components supporting AI-driven data center growth, alongside improving margins. Management also expressed increased confidence in Coherent’s vertically integrated indium phosphide platform, which provides supply chain flexibility and a competitive advantage amid constrained industry capacity. Given the stock’s strong performance and valuation nearing the upper end of our assessed range, we trimmed the position during the quarter while maintaining conviction in the company’s longer term growth opportunities.

BSD Analysis:
Coherent sits at the intersection of photonics, semiconductors, and industrial manufacturing, where precision is non-negotiable. Its lasers and optical components are embedded in processes customers can’t easily redesign around. Demand is cyclical, but technology relevance compounds as applications get more complex. The integration of legacy assets reshaped the portfolio toward higher-value end markets. Investors focus on near-term margin volatility and miss long-cycle positioning. Semiconductor and display applications add asymmetric upside when capex recovers. Switching costs are technical, not contractual. Execution discipline matters more than volume growth. This is enabling technology paid to sit inside bottlenecks.

Pitch Summary:
We also exited our position in MercadoLibre after modest gains driven by improving profitability and margin expansion. Following the stock’s appreciation, we chose to lock in gains and reallocate capital toward opportunities with more compelling valuations. The decision reflected valuation considerations rather than concerns about MercadoLibre’s competitive position.

BSD Analysis:
MercadoLibre has evolved from an e-commerce leader into the digital commerce and financial infrastructure of Latin America. The marketplace drives traffic, but MercadoPago is the profit engine, embedding payments, wallets, and credit into daily transactions. Logistics investments created a moat competitors struggle to replicate across fragmented geographies. Credit losses create periodic noise, yet underwriting improves with scale and data density. Inflation and informality in the region push users toward digital rails rather than away from them. FX volatility distorts reported numbers but not underlying demand. Investors debate valuation every year while the addressable market keeps expanding. Few platforms are this deeply woven into local economies. This is infrastructure growth masquerading as retail.

Pitch Summary:
We also increased our position in Contemporary Amperex Technology Co Limited (CATL), which we view as a key long-term beneficiary of global electrification. CATL is a leading manufacturer and distributor of battery products for electric vehicles and energy storage systems. Near-term sentiment toward the sector has been volatile amid pricing pressure and slower growth in certain EV markets. However, we believe CATL’s scale, technology leadership and cost advantages clearly differentiate it from competitors. Recent market volatility provided an attractive opportunity to build exposure to a high-quality franchise aligned with long-duration electrification tailwinds.

BSD Analysis:
CATL is the undisputed heavyweight in global battery manufacturing, and scale is everything in this business. Its cost advantages, chemistry breadth, and customer relationships are nearly impossible to replicate. EV demand volatility creates headline noise, but long-term electrification doesn’t reverse. CATL’s vertical integration protects margins even as pricing pressure hits weaker players. Innovation cycles in battery chemistry favor incumbents with massive R&D budgets. China exposure is the political tax investors pay, but global customers keep lining up anyway. Capital intensity is enormous, yet returns remain competitive due to sheer scale. This is not a speculative EV play — it’s industrial dominance. CATL is the supply chain, not a bet on any single automaker.

Pitch Summary:
In industrials, we increased our position in MNC Solutions, which provides mission-critical power and automation systems supporting defense-related infrastructure and security applications. While the shares experienced near-term weakness, we believe the company’s exposure to long-duration defense spending and infrastructure modernization remains intact. The company has delivered solid revenue growth, which we expect to compound at roughly 20% over the next couple of years, supported by its specialized product mix and long-term contracts. In a macro environment characterized by heightened geopolitical risk and increased focus on national security, we view MNC’s specialized capabilities and defensive end-market exposure as supportive of its long-term earnings profile.

BSD Analysis:
Monadelphous is a high-quality Australian engineering contractor that thrives by doing fewer things exceptionally well. Its exposure to mining, energy, and infrastructure capex gives it leverage to long-cycle investment rather than short-term commodity prices. The company’s real edge is execution — projects get delivered, costs get controlled, and margins don’t blow out. Mining maintenance and services provide recurring revenue that smooths new-build cyclicality. Balance-sheet conservatism allows Monadelphous to survive downturns without dilution. The market tends to treat contractors as disposable, but Monadelphous has proven otherwise repeatedly. Growth isn’t explosive, but returns are consistent. This is an execution-first industrial that compounds through discipline. Not exciting — just effective.

Pitch Summary:
As we closed out the year, we increased our portfolio weighting in consumer staples, identifying names that enhance balance through resilient cash flows and pricing power. One such name is Tesco, now one of our top ten holdings. Tesco continues to benefit from scale advantages and price leadership, allowing it to gain market share despite a value-conscious UK consumer. Margin contributions from retail media initiatives and ongoing share repurchases support earnings growth without requiring an improvement in consumer spending.

BSD Analysis:
Tesco has quietly reasserted itself as the adult in the room in UK grocery, and that matters more than growth optics. Scale, logistics, and pricing power are the real moats here, not flashy margins. In an inflationary environment, Tesco’s ability to manage suppliers and pass through costs without losing share is the entire game. Discounters nibble at the edges, but Tesco wins on convenience, range, and loyalty economics. The Clubcard ecosystem is a data asset that competitors underestimate. Cash generation is steady, not exciting — which is exactly what grocery should be. Capital discipline has improved materially after years of missteps. Tesco trades like a low-growth retailer, but behaves like essential consumer infrastructure. This is boring done right.