Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Vale is positioned as a strong buy due to its robust fundamentals, strategic investments in energy transition metals, and potential for long-term growth. Despite near-term headwinds and legal challenges, the company's solid financials and strategic ramp-ups support its long-term potential.

BSD Analysis:
Vale reported a solid free cash flow of $2.57 billion in Q3 2025, with expectations of increased CAPEX in Q4. The company maintains a strong financial position, with current assets covering liabilities and manageable debt levels. Legal risks persist, particularly related to the 2015 Brazil dam collapse, but settlements in Brazil may mitigate future liabilities. Macro factors, such as Brazil's high interest rates and potential rate cuts, could benefit Vale by lowering debt costs and boosting economic activity. Additionally, geopolitical developments, including US-China trade relations, may influence global commodity markets, impacting Vale's operations. Overall, Vale's strategic focus on future-facing commodities like copper and nickel positions it well for long-term growth.

Pitch Summary:
Analog Devices, Inc. is positioned as a key enabler of AI infrastructure, benefiting from the growth in AI, automation, and next-gen data centers. Its high-performance analog and power products are essential for AI systems, data centers, and automated factories, driving significant demand.

BSD Analysis:
Analog Devices, Inc. has demonstrated resilience and growth despite macroeconomic challenges, with a 25% year-over-year revenue increase in Q3 2025. The company's diversified business model, spanning industrial, automotive, and communications sectors, provides stability and growth opportunities. ADI's strong profitability, with a gross margin of 69.2% and operating margin of 42.2%, underscores its competitive edge. The company's strategic position in AI data centers, factory automation, and automotive electrification ensures continued demand for its products. Despite valuation concerns, ADI's technology leadership and growth potential justify a Buy rating.

Pitch Summary:
RiverNorth Opportunities Fund offers a diversified multi-asset strategy aimed at optimizing income through investments in CEFs, SPACs, and BDCs. Despite its high forward distribution yield of 13.38%, the fund's performance has been outpaced by peers like SPE and FOF. The fund's exposure to SPACs, which are speculative, and its high expense ratio are notable concerns.

BSD Analysis:
RiverNorth Opportunities Fund provides a high yield through its diversified investment strategy, but it faces challenges such as high fees and speculative investments in SPACs. The fund's strategy includes investing in assets trading at a discount to NAV, which carries the risk of these assets remaining at a discount. While the fund has reduced its SPAC exposure to derisk its portfolio, its historical performance has lagged behind peers like SPE and FOF, which have more moderate fees and better track records. Investors should weigh the fund's high yield against these risks and consider alternative strategies that may offer similar exposure with potentially better returns.

Pitch Summary:
Lockheed Martin is rated as a sell due to its struggles in growth and profitability compared to competitors. Despite some revenue growth, the company has faced declining margins and a weakening balance sheet. The stock is trading at a premium, which is not justified given the lack of earnings growth.

BSD Analysis:
Lockheed Martin's recent Q3 earnings showed some growth, but the broader view reveals a company struggling to grow, especially in comparison to its peers. The company's return on invested capital has halved due to inefficient program additions, and its gross margin is at its lowest in over a decade. The stock's current valuation is high, with a PE ratio of 25.77, which is above the sector average. Despite an uptick in backlog, the company's poor execution on capital deployment remains a significant issue. The defense sector may perform well in the coming years, but other stocks in the industry present better investment opportunities.

Pitch Summary:
Aduro Clean Technologies is making progress with its pilot plant and commercialization plans, but remains pre-revenue and is burning cash. The stock price has moved ahead of the fundamentals, leading to a Hold recommendation.

BSD Analysis:
Aduro Clean Technologies has completed its pilot plant and is moving towards commercialization, with a stronger balance sheet following a recent capital raise. The company is engaging with industrial partners like NexGen and Cleanfarms to explore the use of its technology in real-world applications. However, the company remains pre-revenue, with significant cash burn and potential dilution risks. The market is optimistic about Aduro's technology, but there is no pilot data to justify the current valuation. The company needs to demonstrate stable operations and gather data on output and conversion quality to prove its commercial viability.

Pitch Summary:
RH is undervalued due to short-term market challenges, but it has significant growth potential driven by new product launches, delayed revenue recognition, and international expansion.

BSD Analysis:
RH is currently facing several challenges, including tariff impacts, supply chain uncertainties, and a delayed product launch, which have contributed to a significant decline in its stock price. However, the company is poised for a turnaround with three key catalysts: a major new product launch in spring 2026, expected revenue boosts from delayed shipments, and successful international expansion efforts. The new product line is anticipated to be a significant revenue driver, potentially surpassing the success of RH Modern. Additionally, RH's strategic international openings, such as RH Paris and upcoming RH London and RH Milan, are expected to enhance brand value and drive future growth. Despite short-term financial pressures, RH's long-term growth strategy appears sound, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Pitch Summary:
Consolidated Edison is facing significant challenges due to high capital expenditures, increasing debt, and political pressures, despite growing demand for electricity.

BSD Analysis:
Consolidated Edison has been investing heavily in its infrastructure, with capital spending far exceeding depreciation. This has led to increased debt levels, which the company attempted to manage by selling its Clean Energy business. Despite a rise in demand for electricity driven by economic electrification and data center growth, the company's returns have lagged the broader market. The political environment adds further uncertainty, with calls for rate cuts amidst planned price increases. The company's strategy involves substantial future capital expenditures, which may limit its ability to reduce prices and improve free cash flow. Overall, while the stock appears reasonably priced, the risks associated with high leverage and political scrutiny make it a cautious investment.

Pitch Summary:
Aeluma, Inc. has demonstrated significant growth potential in the semiconductor industry, with its proprietary technology enabling mass-scale manufacturing of high-performance semiconductors. The company's recent uplisting to NASDAQ and inclusion in the Russell 3000 index have likely increased institutional interest. Aeluma's technology integrates high-end compound semiconductor materials on larger silicon wafers, offering cost advantages and efficiency over traditional methods.

BSD Analysis:
Aeluma's technology positions it well to capture a growing serviceable addressable market, projected to expand at a CAGR of 47% to $4.9 billion by the end of the decade. The company's focus on high-performance applications in AI infrastructure, defense, and aerospace, along with its strategic partnerships with NASA and the US Navy, enhance its credibility. Despite being in the early stages of commercialization, Aeluma's strong cash position and lack of financial debt provide a solid foundation for future growth. However, investors should be cautious of potential dilution risks and the company's current lack of profitability.

Pitch Summary:
Crowdstrike is currently overvalued with unpredictable profit margins and a narrow moat, making it a risky investment. Despite its high network effect and barriers to entry, the company faces significant challenges, including legal issues and high expenses, which impact its profitability.

BSD Analysis:
Crowdstrike's reliance on AI for cybersecurity offers a significant barrier to entry, but recent technical issues have raised concerns about its reliability. The company's subscription model dominates its revenue, yet it remains unprofitable, with a recent software bug causing substantial financial and reputational damage. While the demand for cybersecurity is expected to grow with advancements in AI and quantum computing, Crowdstrike's current financial health and customer satisfaction issues pose risks. The company's moat is considered weak compared to competitors like Okta, and its valuation appears stretched based on a discounted cash flow analysis. Investors should be cautious, as the company's growth prospects are overshadowed by its operational and financial uncertainties.

Pitch Summary:
Speedy Hire Plc is strategically advancing its operations through the 'Velocity' transformation programme, focusing on operational efficiency and digital leadership. The company is investing in fleet modernisation and expanding its high-margin specialist hire divisions to drive growth. However, its reliance on the UK construction sector and exposure to economic uncertainties pose significant risks.

BSD Analysis:
Speedy Hire's commitment to digital transformation and fleet sustainability positions it well within the equipment rental sector. The company's strategy to enhance its digital platform aims to improve customer experience and fleet utilisation. Despite these strengths, the company's performance is closely tied to the UK construction cycle, which is currently experiencing softer demand. Competitive pressures and supply chain constraints further challenge its growth prospects. While the company has a solid market position, its success will depend on its ability to remain agile and diversify its client base. The stock may offer value if economic conditions improve, but it is not considered a standout investment.

Pitch Summary:
CLBT is a duopolistic “Rule of 40+” compounder (with a rational private equity owned competitor) trading at a steep discount to software and government intelligence/cybersecurity peers. The set-up in CLBT shares can be characterized as arbitraging depressed near-term sentiment and extremely positive medium to long-term fundamentals. Priced like a ho-hum company selling into a saturated law enforcement TAM, the market is underestimating CLBT’s ongoing successful transition into a full blown “case to closure” software platform. Shares can re-rate higher as the revenue growth acceleration story of 2026 comes into sharper focus on the back of a resurgence of federal spending, the company’s Inseyets (“insights”) upgrade cycle, and successful cross-selling initiatives with modules like Guardian’s cloud evidence management system (growing >100%) and AI analytics from Pathfinder (growing 25%). The recent acquisition of Corellium acts as a revenue growth accelerant as well as being a strategic “acqui-hire” that strengthens the company’s ties to federal agencies while expanding the platform’s capabilities. Judging by the company’s valuation, which we currently peg near 16x 2027 FCF, (a big discount to the market overall) we believe the market is bracing for growth to substantially deteriorate following a reversal in 2026 (or alternatively, the market is skeptical of a 2026 reacceleration). While 2027 might not grow as high as 2026 due to the unusual circumstances going on at the Federal government, it is our view that new CEO Tom Hogan is aggressively putting in new, longer term growth drivers like their recently released Investigator product and looking at potential TAM expanding acquisitions. Cellebrite has good penetration within Forensic units, but their push into the large Investigative Units is what we believe drives the next phase of growth. It’s our view that 2026 is the year the market becomes more comfortable with Cellebrite as a true “platform” story, which generally results in multiple expansion. CLBT has exceptional cash flow dynamics and elite profitability, converting 130-140% of EBITDA into free cash flow, putting it in rarefied air on “Rule of 40” scores when using revenue growth and FCF margins in lieu of EBITDA margins. The involvement of two activist investors(ValueAct and True Wind Capital) at CLBT’s majority shareholder, Japanese listed Sun Corporation, materially increases the likelihood of a full sale of the company within the next two years. In an optimistic scenario, if growth re-accelerates to the 25% range, coupled with 50% incremental margins, we think the stock would be worth ~$33 on 2026 numbers, giving shares 90%+ upside from here over the next year or so.

BSD Analysis:
Cellebrite is the undisputed global leader in Digital Intelligence (DI), whose stock is a high-growth play on the secular, non-negotiable demand for public safety software. The company's formidable moat is built on its subscription-based model, which generates over 88% of revenue from sticky, recurring licenses to government and law enforcement agencies. This commitment to the public sector ensures resilient, non-cyclical ARR growth (up 19% year-over-year) and exceptional Non-GAAP gross margins exceeding 84%. Cellebrite is aggressively leveraging AI-powered solutions like Guardian Investigate to help customers analyze massive volumes of digital evidence, expanding its wallet share from extraction to full-cycle case management. With a net cash balance sheet and minimal debt, the company is generating strong free cash flow and is positioned to compound value through disciplined M&A. Despite the stock's premium valuation, its mission-critical role in solving modern crime and a planned expansion into cloud-based offerings justify the multiple, signaling a durable long-term compounder.

Pitch Summary:
Our conviction in FLYW remains high (~10% position, the largest in the portfolio). The company has gotten back on a “beat and raise” cadence for three consecutive quarters now and we view the ongoing divergence between the company’s fundamentals and its stock price as a significant buying opportunity; while the share price has languished, estimates are moving sharply higher following a ~8% revenue beat in the most recent quarter. The consensus bear case is still chock-full of false fears that international student enrollment caps—similar to recent disruptions in Canada and Australia—will plague Flywire’s largest education markets, the US and UK. However, our variant view suggests these risks remain drastically overpriced. Our analysis shows that even a severe 25% decline in first-year US students would impact total company revenue by only ~2%, and we note that the UK business is actually growing ~40% despite some restrictions having already been in place (they are rapidly taking market share). New integrations with the largest ERP systems that UK universities use is broadening the TAM for their Student Financial Services (SFS) platform, which not only increases the student population using Flywire, but it also adds lucrative new revenue line items like Payment Plans and generally helps with overall student retention. The UK’s ongoing strong growth, with guidance for more, also undermines another Bear point we have heard postured, which is that Flywire is bumping up against its TAM limits and the growth runway is limited. If your most mature market can continue to grow in the 30-40% range, and you are just now moving into the “land” space in many other European markets, we would argue the opportunity to “expand” remains rather robust. Furthermore, the company is finding their operational groove in their other markets as well, with their healthcare business expected to significantly accelerate in 2026 off the back of multiple large contract wins, and their emerging B2B business growing “over 70%” for the second consecutive year. But wait, there’s more. Flywire is combining their accelerated growth with rapidly improving profitability (Voss Sauce), with incremental EBITDA margins hitting over 40% over the last twelve months. Valued at roughly 3x EV/Gross Profit and under 10x EBITDA (and now 9x our 2027 FCF), FLYW compares favorably to vertical niche payment-oriented peers like Toast at 11x. Thus, we believe the risk/reward is still heavily skewed to the upside along with the decent probability that FLYW is a medium-term takeover target.

BSD Analysis:
Flywire is a compounding fintech powerhouse exploiting the complexity of high-value, cross-border payments in regulated sectors few competitors can touch. The core moat is the Flywire Advantage: a unique blend of a proprietary global payment network and vertical-specific software deeply embedded in client workflows across Education, Healthcare, and B2B. This sticky integration drives exponential scale, evidenced by Total Payment Volume surging over 26% in the third quarter of 2025. This strategic mix shift to high-margin software is fueling significant profitability, pushing Adjusted EBITDA margins toward 30%. The market is inexplicably undervaluing this structural strength, pricing the stock at a paltry 10.1x forward P/E, a steep discount to the industry average. With an aggressive $192 million share buyback program and strategic acquisitions bolstering its Accounts Receivable Automation, management is actively shrinking the share count while accelerating growth. Given analyst targets suggest over 60% upside, Flywire is a clear-cut case where market pessimism creates a massive discount for a best-in-class compounding asset.

Pitch Summary:
United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) is a deep value stock rightfully doing time in the "penalty box." Holding the stock has cost us dearly recently with a quick ~45% drop post Q3 earnings. While attendance growth was resilient and positive in Q2 in the face of Universal Studio’s Epic Universe opening, the market yawned and looked past that. Fast forward to Q3 and -3.4% attendance growth and -6.3% Admissions Per Cap (ticket prices) satiated the bear case. The competitive environment has intensified significantly. With Disney aggressively discounting in Orlando to counter Universal’s newly opened Epic Universe, and Six Flags pressuring some of the regional markets, PRKS has been pressured to lower prices to protect volume. Negative operating leverage is biting—revenue is down 3.9% YTD while Adjusted EBITDA has fallen 11.8%. However, at $30/share, the downside appears well priced in. The stock trades at 6x EV/EBITDA and 9x FCF on our freshly lowered estimates, not to mention the owned real estate value potentially in the billions that has yet to be monetized. This valuation creates an asymmetric setup driven by capital allocation: PRKS has $525 million remaining on its repurchase authorization. At current prices, this could theoretically retire ~17.5 million shares (~74% of the float). While net leverage has crept up to 3.2x, limiting the immediate pace of buybacks compared to 2024, the floor this provides is meaningful. Despite the current gloom, all hope is not lost as 2026 group bookings are up +20% and Discovery Cove reservations are up double digits, although it is certainly possible that EBITDA continues to trickle lower, extending PRKS’ time in the penalty box. It is also possible that the depressed share price increases the probability of accelerated buybacks or a potential take-private by Hill Path Capital, whose majority ownership stake remains a key backstop in our view. As we look to the future for PRKS, the picture has become slightly fuzzier, and we expect the company will have to “prove it” to the markets before any re-rating occurs. We even trimmed our position marginally to realize tax losses. That being said, we believe the stock price overreacted to admittedly bad fundamental news. With the EV/EBITDA multiple compressed to historical lows and a massive buyback authorization in place, we believe the risk/reward is skewed to the upside relative to current prices. In value investing there is an imperceptible line between intellectual sloth and its corresponding virtue—monk-like patience. Only Father Time can reveal the distinction in full in the case of PRKS.

BSD Analysis:
United Parks & Resorts is a brutally mispriced experience-economy asset, trading near its 52-week low due to temporary noise, not structural impairment. The stock's depressed 10.7x forward P/E multiple does not reflect the company's true earnings power, which is supported by resilient pricing and operational discipline. Despite a near-term Q3 revenue miss, the company's in-park per capita spending continues its record-breaking streak, demonstrating unassailable pricing power over its consumer base. Management is aggressively deploying capital against this weakness with a dual catalyst: a major $500 million share repurchase authorization and a massive slate of new CapEx. New, high-ROI attractions like the thrilling Barracuda Strike and the immersive SEAQuest: Legends of the Deep for 2026 should drive attendance and amplify per-share growth. Forward bookings for high-value properties like Discovery Cove are already up double-digits, signaling a strong and inevitable recovery into the next season.

Pitch Summary:
We believe Xponential Fitness (XPOF) currently represents one of the most asymmetric risk/reward profiles in our portfolio. The stock is trading at roughly 7x 2025 estimated EBITDA and ~6x consensus 2026 EBITDA, a valuation that in our view also implies terminal decline. For context, this is a discount of approximately 66% relative to its closest peer, Planet Fitness (trading at ~20-21x). The market’s bearish narrative has shifted from governance and regulatory concerns to a "growth stall" narrative following Q3 same-store sales (“SSS”) of -1%. However, our diligence suggests this headline metric masks a bullish reality regarding unit economics and intrinsic value from a franchisor and franchisee point of view. The bear case is now focused on the deceleration of same-store sales at the flagship Club Pilates brand (which slowed to +1% in Q3). On the surface, this looks like saturation or lack of member growth. However, channel checks and franchisee interviews reveal a critical nuance, that Club Pilates studios are reaching maturity faster. Historically, studios opened with lower utilization and then grew steadily over three to four years, providing years of same-store sales growth once the stores entered the comp base 13 months after opening. Today, 2024 vintages of new locations are opening with Year 1 revenues 27% higher than previous vintages. In other words, new studios are opening near capacity without the need or ability for outsized growth in the following years. A multi-unit franchisee noted in October: “We opened with like 30 members for my first club because nobody knew what Club Pilates was eight years ago...we opened with like 350, 400 [members] this last club that just opened...we are wait_xFFFE_listed most classes…I'm not necessarily trying to grow my membership base [because] we are close to capacity.” When a studio opens full, it generates near maximum cash flow immediately but contributes little to growth metrics in year two after that studio enters the same-store sales base. The market may be penalizing XPOF for accelerated franchisee payback periods, but private equity buyers will look favorably on this dynamic. In our analysis, the current enterprise value of XPOF effectively ignores the standalone value of Club Pilates. With 1,369 locations and North American average unit volumes (AUVs) over $1 million, and nearly ¼ of locations doing over $1.2 million, we estimate the Club Pilates brand alone generates around $105 million in EBITDA. Applying a conservative 11x-13x multiple to just this segment yields a valuation of $13–$17 per share—over double the current share price. This assumes zero value for the remaining brands, meaning investors are getting the other four brands (Pure Barre, YogaSix, BFT and StretchLab) as free embedded options. While the company’s debt refinancing process has been dragged out by regulatory hurdles, the forward-looking cash flow profile remains promising. During their May Investor Day, management outlined targets for $149 million in unlevered Free Cash Flow by 2027. Even if we haircut these targets significantly (by 25%), the stock is trading at under 4x levered FCF based on 2027 potential that management has sketched out. The market is pricing XPOF as a broken growth story. We see it as a cash-flowing franchisor where the obvious value of owning the largest Pilates studio brand in the country with top tier unit economics remains obscured by noise and short termism. We remain long, expecting the valuation gap to close soon with sustained cash flows or a sale of the company to private equity.

BSD Analysis:
Xponential Fitness is a brutally mispriced franchise winner caught in a short-seller attack and a CEO change hangover, creating an obvious, asymmetric entry point. The market is incorrectly focused on the 2% decline in reported revenue, failing to understand that this noise comes from a steep 49% collapse in low-margin equipment sales, which actually improves the long-term margin mix. The core, high-quality franchise royalty revenue—the real earnings engine—continues to grow at a healthy 17% year-over-year. This growth is fueling an explosion in profitability, driving Adjusted EBITDA margins toward 42% and significantly exceeding consensus estimates. Trading at an absurdly low 6x to 8x forward EBITDA, the stock is profoundly cheap compared to the premium multiples enjoyed by boutique fitness peers. New CEO Mike Nuzzo and the strategic divestitures of weak brands are catalysts for operational cleanup and a multiple re-rating. This is a classic case of public market panic obscuring a capital-light compounding engine with strong system-wide sales growth.

Pitch Summary:
Euronet has been another material performance detractor for Voss YTD. We reduced our position to harvest some tax losses following a disappointing third quarter that invalidated some pillars of our original thesis. While we previously viewed the company as a mispriced "growth-at-a-reasonable-price" story supported by a diverse portfolio with an A+ management team, recent results reveal weakness across all segments coupled with a lack of visibility into near-term growth drivers. A resumption of buybacks and an analyst day early in 2026 after reporting Q4 results are desperately needed catalysts. Our constructive view of the stock has been predicated upon the resilience of Euronet’s diversified payments model and the latent value of its growth initiatives (REN, Dandelion, Merchant Services). However, Q3 results threw some shade on this narrative. While we expected that EEFT’s segment diversity would smoothen volatility, all three segments underperformed. ePay revenue declined 5% on a constant currency basis, a material negative surprise, while the Money Transfer segment struggled with margin pressures and lackluster growth, though still handily outperforming peers such as Intermex. We anticipated rising incremental margins in the Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) segment driven by new ATM surcharges and growth from higher margin REN. Instead, incremental margins have declined for four consecutive quarters, dropping from ~52% to ~27% on a rolling 12-month basis. Management cited idiosyncratic headwinds (e.g., a $6M impact in Mexico due to sponsor bank issues and geopolitical impacts in Egypt), but the frequency of these "one-time" events is becoming a pattern. Our anticipated segment reporting breakout of EEFT’s high-growth assets like REN, Dandelion, and Merchant Acquiring has also failed to materialize in the financial disclosures. These assets remain obscured within legacy segments, and growth has seemingly slowed. The stock has de-rated all the way from 20x+ earnings to under 7x, but this compression is now accompanied by genuine downward revisions estimates rather than just multiple contraction. The lack of near-term momentum and the looming 1% remittance tax in 2025 creates a difficult path for stock appreciation in the short term, but we think a late Q1 ’26 analyst day will be a critical catalyst and opportunity to reset the narrative and provide more disclosure around the company’s growth options. We also expect buybacks to become significantly more aggressive in the New Year. Furthermore, and most fundamental to our thesis, it provides an opportunity to highlight the incredibly strategic value of the global distribution network the company has built out over 30 years that is virtually unrivaled within the FinTech universe. For instance, Euronet charges companies like Remitly (and other competitors who are thought to be superior with richer valuations) for access to their payment rails. The company’s capital "receiving capability" is nearly 100% globally (touching billions of bank accounts, digital wallets, etc.); a claim few competitors can match. However, unlocking this value may require a strategic pivot—either a sale to a larger fintech player or a take-private transaction. Until management can credibly demonstrate a turnaround or endorses a strategic review, the market may not reward this unique and latent potential. While deserving of increased skepticism, the market has overly punished shares and the stock is currently the cheapest it has ever been by a wide margin, and it is even at a 20%+ discount to where inferior, negative growth Intermex was acquired mere months ago.

BSD Analysis:
Euronet Worldwide is a deeply undervalued global fintech infrastructure play executing a massive transformation from a legacy cash business to a high-growth digital payments platform. The company's formidable moat lies in its highly diversified, three-segment asset base—ATMs, digital content/prepaid, and money transfer—all running on its scalable, proprietary REN network. The critical near-term catalyst is the accelerating adoption of its digital platforms, with transactions growing over 30% year-over-year, and the rapid expansion of its high-margin wholesale cross-border platform, Dandelion. This strategic mix shift, combined with disciplined cost control, is successfully expanding operating margins, which grew by over 100 basis points in the recent quarter. Despite reliable targets for double-digit earnings growth, the stock is trading at an absurdly low 10.1x forward P/E, a steep discount to the industry average. Analysts believe this mispricing creates an asymmetric upside of over 60% as the market is forced to re-rate the company to reflect its true compounding power and profitability. Strategic partnerships with giants like Google and Citigroup further reinforce Euronet's competitive standing, positioning it to dominate the secular growth of the global digital remittance market.

Pitch Summary:
CLBT is a duopolistic “Rule of 40+” compounder (with a rational private equity owned competitor) trading at a steep discount to software and government intelligence/cybersecurity peers. The set-up in CLBT shares can be characterized as arbitraging depressed near-term sentiment and extremely positive medium to long-term fundamentals. Priced like a ho-hum company selling into a saturated law enforcement TAM, the market is underestimating CLBT’s ongoing successful transition into a full blown “case to closure” software platform. Shares can re-rate higher as the revenue growth acceleration story of 2026 comes into sharper focus on the back of a resurgence of federal spending, the company’s Inseyets (“insights”) upgrade cycle, and successful cross-selling initiatives with modules like Guardian’s cloud evidence management system (growing >100%) and AI analytics from Pathfinder (growing 25%). The recent acquisition of Corellium acts as a revenue growth accelerant as well as being a strategic “acqui-hire” that strengthens the company’s ties to federal agencies while expanding the platform’s capabilities. Judging by the company’s valuation, which we currently peg near 16x 2027 FCF, (a big discount to the market overall) we believe the market is bracing for growth to substantially deteriorate following a reversal in 2026 (or alternatively, the market is skeptical of a 2026 reacceleration). While 2027 might not grow as high as 2026 due to the unusual circumstances going on at the Federal government, it is our view that new CEO Tom Hogan is aggressively putting in new, longer term growth drivers like their recently released Investigator product and looking at potential TAM expanding acquisitions. Cellebrite has good penetration within Forensic units, but their push into the large Investigative Units is what we believe drives the next phase of growth. It’s our view that 2026 is the year the market becomes more comfortable with Cellebrite as a true “platform” story, which generally results in multiple expansion. CLBT has exceptional cash flow dynamics and elite profitability, converting 130-140% of EBITDA into free cash flow, putting it in rarefied air on “Rule of 40” scores when using revenue growth and FCF margins in lieu of EBITDA margins. The involvement of two activist investors(ValueAct and True Wind Capital) at CLBT’s majority shareholder, Japanese listed Sun Corporation, materially increases the likelihood of a full sale of the company within the next two years. In an optimistic scenario, if growth re-accelerates to the 25% range, coupled with 50% incremental margins, we think the stock would be worth ~$33 on 2026 numbers, giving shares 90%+ upside from here over the next year or so.

BSD Analysis:
Cellebrite is the undisputed global leader in Digital Intelligence (DI), whose stock is a high-growth play on the secular, non-negotiable demand for public safety software. The company's formidable moat is built on its subscription-based model, which generates over 88% of revenue from sticky, recurring licenses to government and law enforcement agencies. This commitment to the public sector ensures resilient, non-cyclical ARR growth (up 19% year-over-year) and exceptional Non-GAAP gross margins exceeding 84%. Cellebrite is aggressively leveraging AI-powered solutions like Guardian Investigate to help customers analyze massive volumes of digital evidence, expanding its wallet share from extraction to full-cycle case management. With a net cash balance sheet and minimal debt, the company is generating strong free cash flow and is positioned to compound value through disciplined M&A. Despite the stock's premium valuation, its mission-critical role in solving modern crime and a planned expansion into cloud-based offerings justify the multiple, signaling a durable long-term compounder.

Pitch Summary:
Our conviction in FLYW remains high (~10% position, the largest in the portfolio). The company has gotten back on a “beat and raise” cadence for three consecutive quarters now and we view the ongoing divergence between the company’s fundamentals and its stock price as a significant buying opportunity; while the share price has languished, estimates are moving sharply higher following a ~8% revenue beat in the most recent quarter. The consensus bear case is still chock-full of false fears that international student enrollment caps—similar to recent disruptions in Canada and Australia—will plague Flywire’s largest education markets, the US and UK. However, our variant view suggests these risks remain drastically overpriced. Our analysis shows that even a severe 25% decline in first-year US students would impact total company revenue by only ~2%, and we note that the UK business is actually growing ~40% despite some restrictions having already been in place (they are rapidly taking market share). New integrations with the largest ERP systems that UK universities use is broadening the TAM for their Student Financial Services (SFS) platform, which not only increases the student population using Flywire, but it also adds lucrative new revenue line items like Payment Plans and generally helps with overall student retention. The UK’s ongoing strong growth, with guidance for more, also undermines another Bear point we have heard postured, which is that Flywire is bumping up against its TAM limits and the growth runway is limited. If your most mature market can continue to grow in the 30-40% range, and you are just now moving into the “land” space in many other European markets, we would argue the opportunity to “expand” remains rather robust. Furthermore, the company is finding their operational groove in their other markets as well, with their healthcare business expected to significantly accelerate in 2026 off the back of multiple large contract wins, and their emerging B2B business growing “over 70%” for the second consecutive year. But wait, there’s more. Flywire is combining their accelerated growth with rapidly improving profitability (Voss Sauce), with incremental EBITDA margins hitting over 40% over the last twelve months. Valued at roughly 3x EV/Gross Profit and under 10x EBITDA (and now 9x our 2027 FCF), FLYW compares favorably to vertical niche payment-oriented peers like Toast at 11x. Thus, we believe the risk/reward is still heavily skewed to the upside along with the decent probability that FLYW is a medium-term takeover target.

BSD Analysis:
Flywire is a compounding fintech powerhouse exploiting the complexity of high-value, cross-border payments in regulated sectors few competitors can touch. The core moat is the Flywire Advantage: a unique blend of a proprietary global payment network and vertical-specific software deeply embedded in client workflows across Education, Healthcare, and B2B. This sticky integration drives exponential scale, evidenced by Total Payment Volume surging over 26% in the third quarter of 2025. This strategic mix shift to high-margin software is fueling significant profitability, pushing Adjusted EBITDA margins toward 30%. The market is inexplicably undervaluing this structural strength, pricing the stock at a paltry 10.1x forward P/E, a steep discount to the industry average. With an aggressive $192 million share buyback program and strategic acquisitions bolstering its Accounts Receivable Automation, management is actively shrinking the share count while accelerating growth. Given analyst targets suggest over 60% upside, Flywire is a clear-cut case where market pessimism creates a massive discount for a best-in-class compounding asset.

Pitch Summary:
United Parks & Resorts (PRKS) is a deep value stock rightfully doing time in the "penalty box." Holding the stock has cost us dearly recently with a quick ~45% drop post Q3 earnings. While attendance growth was resilient and positive in Q2 in the face of Universal Studio’s Epic Universe opening, the market yawned and looked past that. Fast forward to Q3 and -3.4% attendance growth and -6.3% Admissions Per Cap (ticket prices) satiated the bear case. The competitive environment has intensified significantly. With Disney aggressively discounting in Orlando to counter Universal’s newly opened Epic Universe, and Six Flags pressuring some of the regional markets, PRKS has been pressured to lower prices to protect volume. Negative operating leverage is biting—revenue is down 3.9% YTD while Adjusted EBITDA has fallen 11.8%. However, at $30/share, the downside appears well priced in. The stock trades at 6x EV/EBITDA and 9x FCF on our freshly lowered estimates, not to mention the owned real estate value potentially in the billions that has yet to be monetized. This valuation creates an asymmetric setup driven by capital allocation: PRKS has $525 million remaining on its repurchase authorization. At current prices, this could theoretically retire ~17.5 million shares (~74% of the float). While net leverage has crept up to 3.2x, limiting the immediate pace of buybacks compared to 2024, the floor this provides is meaningful. Despite the current gloom, all hope is not lost as 2026 group bookings are up +20% and Discovery Cove reservations are up double digits, although it is certainly possible that EBITDA continues to trickle lower, extending PRKS’ time in the penalty box. It is also possible that the depressed share price increases the probability of accelerated buybacks or a potential take-private by Hill Path Capital, whose majority ownership stake remains a key backstop in our view. As we look to the future for PRKS, the picture has become slightly fuzzier, and we expect the company will have to “prove it” to the markets before any re-rating occurs. We even trimmed our position marginally to realize tax losses. That being said, we believe the stock price overreacted to admittedly bad fundamental news. With the EV/EBITDA multiple compressed to historical lows and a massive buyback authorization in place, we believe the risk/reward is skewed to the upside relative to current prices. In value investing there is an imperceptible line between intellectual sloth and its corresponding virtue—monk-like patience. Only Father Time can reveal the distinction in full in the case of PRKS.

BSD Analysis:
United Parks & Resorts is a brutally mispriced experience-economy asset, trading near its 52-week low due to temporary noise, not structural impairment. The stock's depressed 10.7x forward P/E multiple does not reflect the company's true earnings power, which is supported by resilient pricing and operational discipline. Despite a near-term Q3 revenue miss, the company's in-park per capita spending continues its record-breaking streak, demonstrating unassailable pricing power over its consumer base. Management is aggressively deploying capital against this weakness with a dual catalyst: a major $500 million share repurchase authorization and a massive slate of new CapEx. New, high-ROI attractions like the thrilling Barracuda Strike and the immersive SEAQuest: Legends of the Deep for 2026 should drive attendance and amplify per-share growth. Forward bookings for high-value properties like Discovery Cove are already up double-digits, signaling a strong and inevitable recovery into the next season.

Pitch Summary:
We believe Xponential Fitness (XPOF) currently represents one of the most asymmetric risk/reward profiles in our portfolio. The stock is trading at roughly 7x 2025 estimated EBITDA and ~6x consensus 2026 EBITDA, a valuation that in our view also implies terminal decline. For context, this is a discount of approximately 66% relative to its closest peer, Planet Fitness (trading at ~20-21x). The market’s bearish narrative has shifted from governance and regulatory concerns to a "growth stall" narrative following Q3 same-store sales (“SSS”) of -1%. However, our diligence suggests this headline metric masks a bullish reality regarding unit economics and intrinsic value from a franchisor and franchisee point of view. The bear case is now focused on the deceleration of same-store sales at the flagship Club Pilates brand (which slowed to +1% in Q3). On the surface, this looks like saturation or lack of member growth. However, channel checks and franchisee interviews reveal a critical nuance, that Club Pilates studios are reaching maturity faster. Historically, studios opened with lower utilization and then grew steadily over three to four years, providing years of same-store sales growth once the stores entered the comp base 13 months after opening. Today, 2024 vintages of new locations are opening with Year 1 revenues 27% higher than previous vintages. In other words, new studios are opening near capacity without the need or ability for outsized growth in the following years. A multi-unit franchisee noted in October: “We opened with like 30 members for my first club because nobody knew what Club Pilates was eight years ago...we opened with like 350, 400 [members] this last club that just opened...we are wait_xFFFE_listed most classes…I'm not necessarily trying to grow my membership base [because] we are close to capacity.” When a studio opens full, it generates near maximum cash flow immediately but contributes little to growth metrics in year two after that studio enters the same-store sales base. The market may be penalizing XPOF for accelerated franchisee payback periods, but private equity buyers will look favorably on this dynamic. In our analysis, the current enterprise value of XPOF effectively ignores the standalone value of Club Pilates. With 1,369 locations and North American average unit volumes (AUVs) over $1 million, and nearly ¼ of locations doing over $1.2 million, we estimate the Club Pilates brand alone generates around $105 million in EBITDA. Applying a conservative 11x-13x multiple to just this segment yields a valuation of $13–$17 per share—over double the current share price. This assumes zero value for the remaining brands, meaning investors are getting the other four brands (Pure Barre, YogaSix, BFT and StretchLab) as free embedded options. While the company’s debt refinancing process has been dragged out by regulatory hurdles, the forward-looking cash flow profile remains promising. During their May Investor Day, management outlined targets for $149 million in unlevered Free Cash Flow by 2027. Even if we haircut these targets significantly (by 25%), the stock is trading at under 4x levered FCF based on 2027 potential that management has sketched out. The market is pricing XPOF as a broken growth story. We see it as a cash-flowing franchisor where the obvious value of owning the largest Pilates studio brand in the country with top tier unit economics remains obscured by noise and short termism. We remain long, expecting the valuation gap to close soon with sustained cash flows or a sale of the company to private equity.

BSD Analysis:
Xponential Fitness is a brutally mispriced franchise winner caught in a short-seller attack and a CEO change hangover, creating an obvious, asymmetric entry point. The market is incorrectly focused on the 2% decline in reported revenue, failing to understand that this noise comes from a steep 49% collapse in low-margin equipment sales, which actually improves the long-term margin mix. The core, high-quality franchise royalty revenue—the real earnings engine—continues to grow at a healthy 17% year-over-year. This growth is fueling an explosion in profitability, driving Adjusted EBITDA margins toward 42% and significantly exceeding consensus estimates. Trading at an absurdly low 6x to 8x forward EBITDA, the stock is profoundly cheap compared to the premium multiples enjoyed by boutique fitness peers. New CEO Mike Nuzzo and the strategic divestitures of weak brands are catalysts for operational cleanup and a multiple re-rating. This is a classic case of public market panic obscuring a capital-light compounding engine with strong system-wide sales growth.