Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
The iShares S&P 100 ETF (OEF) has shown a +17% return since January 2025, but with significant volatility and a steep drawdown in early 2025. Despite its strong performance, the ETF faces challenges such as falling relative strength among the largest U.S. stocks and concerns over valuation. The fund's price-to-earnings ratio has increased to 23.82x, with a PEG ratio of 2.3x, indicating a premium valuation. The ETF's heavy concentration in Information Technology and other TMT sectors suggests a bet on tech dominance, which may not be sustainable in the near term.

BSD Analysis:
OEF's valuation remains a concern, with a high price-to-earnings ratio and a PEG ratio that suggests it is not a bargain. The ETF's concentration in tech sectors, while historically beneficial, may face headwinds as global equities and domestic SMID caps outperform. The technical outlook is also challenging, with shares stuck in a trading range and weakening momentum indicators. The ETF's liquidity is strong, but the current market environment suggests caution. Investors should consider diversifying with funds that offer exposure to domestic SMID caps and non-U.S. equities.

Pitch Summary:
Hycroft Mining has seen a dramatic increase in its stock price, rising approximately 1,300% since January 2023, despite not producing any gold or generating revenue. The company has a large resource base, with recent updates showing significant growth in gold and silver resources. However, the economic feasibility of extracting these resources remains unproven, with no validated full economic study. The company has been burning cash and has diluted shareholders to improve its balance sheet. The market capitalization of $3.5 billion seems unjustified given the lack of production and revenue.

BSD Analysis:
Hycroft's recent resource update is impressive, but the company's challenges remain. The processing pathway is complex and capital-intensive, and the company is still years away from production. Despite raising significant capital and becoming debt-free, Hycroft has diluted its shareholders extensively. The upcoming Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) is crucial, but PEAs are often unreliable and may not provide the economic validation needed. The company's valuation is high for a pre-production exploration company, and the investment case relies heavily on speculative future outcomes.

Pitch Summary:
Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) is strategically positioned to become a major player in the rare earth elements market, particularly with its Tanbreez project in Greenland. The company has secured a commanding 92.5% stake in this project, which is considered one of the largest heavy rare earth element (HREE) deposits globally. This positions CRML as a critical supplier for Western militaries seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese HREEs, which are essential for advanced military technologies. The company's strategic partnerships and off-take agreements with entities in the US, Europe, and the Middle East further strengthen its market position. Despite being profitless currently, CRML's potential $3 billion net present value from Tanbreez and its strategic importance in the geopolitical landscape make it a compelling long-term investment.

BSD Analysis:
CRML's Tanbreez project is a cornerstone in the West's strategy to diversify its HREE supply chain away from China, which controls 95% of the market. The project's location in southern Greenland allows for year-round shipping, enhancing its logistical viability. The company's recent financial maneuvers, including a $120 million EXIM bank letter of intent and an $85 million PIPE, provide the necessary capital to advance its projects. However, investors should be cautious of the inherent risks, including the speculative nature of the investment, potential policy changes, and the volatility of rare earth prices. The company's ability to execute its strategic vision amidst these challenges will be crucial to its success.

Pitch Summary:
BHP Group Limited has shown strong financial performance, particularly driven by its copper segment, which accounted for a significant portion of its revenues. However, the recent 40% increase in its share price suggests that much of this performance is already reflected in its valuation. The outlook for copper demand, a key driver for BHP, may face short-term headwinds, potentially limiting upside. While BHP's long-term prospects remain positive, especially in its copper segment, the current valuation and potential copper market challenges suggest limited near-term upside. The recommendation is to hold off on buying until a significant dip in share price occurs, which would present a more favorable risk/reward scenario.

BSD Analysis:
BHP's financial results are closely tied to the global copper market, with copper prices significantly impacting its revenue and profit growth. The company's debt levels have increased, leading to higher interest costs, which could pose a risk if not managed properly. While BHP has a diversified mining portfolio, including iron ore and coal, copper remains the primary driver of its financial performance. The potential for weaker-than-expected copper demand, due to factors such as slowing EV sales and infrastructure development, could impact BHP's growth. However, other segments like iron ore may provide some upside if demand forecasts improve. Investors should monitor copper market trends and BHP's financial health closely.

Pitch Summary:
Robert Half Inc. has faced challenges with declining sales and earnings since 2022, exacerbated by fears of AI disruption in its intermediary business model. Despite these issues, the company maintains a strong balance sheet with $2.1 billion in current assets against $1.6 billion in liabilities, and no financial debt. Analysts forecast a stabilization in sales and a rebound in EPS, suggesting potential for a turnaround. The stock is currently undervalued, trading at a low EV to sales ratio of 0.44x, compared to a long-term average of 1.5x. The high dividend yield of 9.2% is supported by substantial cash reserves, providing a cushion for investors.

BSD Analysis:
The significant short interest in Robert Half's stock, which requires covering the high dividend yield, could lead to a short squeeze, driving the price higher. Insiders have been net buyers, indicating confidence in the company's prospects. The potential for a rebound in recruiting and hiring trends in 2026 could unlock substantial upside, with a reversion-to-the-mean price target of $46, representing an 85% total return including dividends. While AI poses a risk, Robert Half's established brand and vetted employee pool may continue to attract demand. The downside risk is limited, with a price floor around $20, supported by the company's tangible book value.

Pitch Summary:
Accendra Health, Inc. has faced significant challenges, including a 60% decline in stock value over the past year due to an overleveraged balance sheet and narrow margins. The company has divested its legacy business to focus on its home care segment, which serves the growing sleep apnea and diabetes markets. Despite losing a major contract, ACH expects to offset revenue declines with volume growth, aided by a new agreement with UnitedHealth. The company plans to undertake significant cost reductions in 2026 to stabilize margins. Shares are currently trading at just 2x free cash flow, presenting a speculative opportunity for long-term investors.

BSD Analysis:
Accendra Health's financial outlook for 2026 suggests a trough year, with a projected $162 million drop in revenue due to the loss of a large contract. However, management anticipates a return to growth in 2027, driven by volume increases and strategic partnerships. The company's debt reduction strategy, supported by proceeds from recent divestitures, aims to bring net leverage down to 3x by 2030. While the balance sheet repair process is expected to take several years, the current low valuation of the stock provides a potential upside for patient investors. The focus on high-growth markets like sleep apnea offers a long-term growth trajectory, despite potential risks from GLP-1 drug adoption affecting diabetes prevalence.

Pitch Summary:
Quanta Services, Inc. has experienced significant growth due to the surge in demand for AI data centers, driven by hyperscalers' increased spending. The company reported a 19.7% year-over-year increase in Q4 revenues, with substantial contributions from its Electric and Infrastructure segments. The backlog has grown by 27.5%, providing strong revenue visibility. Despite some margin pressures due to M&A activities and project mix changes, the company remains profitable and financially stable. The bullish guidance for the upcoming year, with revenue and EPS projections exceeding analyst expectations, further supports the investment case.

BSD Analysis:
Quanta Services is strategically positioned to benefit from the ongoing AI data center revolution, which is transforming the utility landscape. The company's ability to bridge the gap between rapid data center construction and utility grid expansion presents a unique growth opportunity. With a strong financial position, including a healthy interest coverage ratio and robust cash flows, Quanta can comfortably manage its debt obligations. The management's focus on high-margin projects and the generational shift in AI infrastructure demand suggest sustained profitability. However, investors should remain cautious of potential risks when the current growth cycle matures.

Pitch Summary:
Playboy, Inc. has undergone a significant transformation from a media company to a high-margin, asset-light licensing business. The company has strategically pivoted to focus on licensing its global intellectual property, direct-to-consumer sales, and digital subscription content offerings. Recent developments, such as the $122 million liquidity event in China and the new joint venture with UTG, have strengthened Playboy's financial position and provided a framework for predictable cash flows. The UTG deal, in particular, offers guaranteed minimum distributions and profit-sharing opportunities, aligning incentives and reducing operational risks. With a focus on deleveraging and improving margins, Playboy is well-positioned for sustained profitability and growth.

BSD Analysis:
Playboy's transition to an asset-light model is supported by strategic partnerships and a focus on core competencies. The company's agreement with Byborg Enterprises has converted a volatile digital operation into a stable revenue stream, while the UTG joint venture in China provides a fresh framework for monetizing the brand in a key market. Playboy's commitment to reducing debt and improving its balance sheet further enhances its financial stability. The company's ability to generate high-margin licensing revenue, coupled with its iconic brand recognition, positions it for long-term success. However, the success of the China JV deal is crucial, and any delays or failures could impact momentum.

Pitch Summary:
DNOW Inc. experienced a significant drop in share price following disappointing Q4 2025 results. Despite this, the stock appears undervalued, especially when considering the synergies from its recent merger with MRC Global. The merger is expected to bring substantial cost savings, and the company is capturing these synergies faster than anticipated. Although the company has not provided comprehensive guidance for 2026, the stock remains a 'Buy' due to its relative cheapness compared to peers and the potential for improved financial performance as merger synergies are realized.

BSD Analysis:
The market reacted negatively to DNOW's earnings miss and lack of forward guidance, largely due to challenges with ERP implementation and flat revenue expectations. However, the merger with MRC Global is a strategic move that could enhance DNOW's market position and operational efficiency. The anticipated $70 million in annual cost savings by 2028, with an accelerated realization in 2026, underscores the merger's potential benefits. While the company faces short-term integration challenges, its long-term prospects remain promising, particularly if management can resolve ERP issues and provide clearer financial guidance.

Pitch Summary:
AMD is transitioning from a high-performance chip supplier to a rack-scale AI infrastructure architect. The company is focusing on integrated rack solutions, moving up the value chain from silicon supplier to infrastructure supplier. This strategic shift is expected to expand AMD's market multiple if executed successfully. The company's EPYC processors are positioned as an AI multiplier, with demand expected to grow alongside AI infrastructure. AMD's valuation appears attractive, with a forward EPS multiple of 20x based on 2027 estimates, supported by strong revenue growth projections.

BSD Analysis:
AMD's strategic pivot to rack-scale solutions represents a significant shift in its business model, aiming to capture higher value by becoming an infrastructure player. The success of this transition hinges on the execution of its Helios and MI450 products, as well as maintaining strong demand for its EPYC processors. The company's focus on supply chain management and operational discipline is crucial to avoid potential integration complexities and competitive pressures. With projected revenue growth and a favorable valuation, AMD presents a compelling investment opportunity in the evolving AI infrastructure landscape.

Pitch Summary:
First Solar is a company that requires close monitoring of macroeconomic cycles and order backlog health. Despite strong management execution and a high quality score, the company faces structural risks due to its asset-heavy nature and exposure to sector cyclicality. The recent positive free cash flow may be temporary, and the company's reliance on US protectionism and IRA tax credits raises concerns about long-term stability. The company's growth is geographically concentrated, and while solar energy demand is rising, First Solar's ability to capture value efficiently is uncertain.

BSD Analysis:
First Solar's business model is heavily influenced by US protectionism, with its revenue engine driven by American demand and IRA tax credits. The company's recent revenue growth is impressive, but its gross margins have deteriorated, highlighting the risks of being a commodity manufacturer. The backlog and R&D efficiency are critical aspects of the business, yet they are not transparently reported in their 10-K filings. The company's valuation is challenging due to its turnaround nature, and while there is a statistical margin of safety, investors must remain vigilant about the backlog and market dynamics. The solar panel market is highly competitive, with pricing wars and geopolitical factors adding complexity to First Solar's operations.

Pitch Summary:
Alibaba is currently facing market volatility due to geopolitical tensions, including its brief addition to a Pentagon list, which was quickly retracted. Despite this, Alibaba's fundamentals remain strong, with significant investments in AI and cloud infrastructure. The company is leading in the AI space with its Qwen AI platform, which has seen impressive user engagement and growth. Alibaba Cloud continues to dominate as the largest cloud provider in Asia, with robust revenue growth. The company's strategic investments and partnerships, such as the pending Apple Intelligence deal, position it well for future growth. Current market conditions have led to a stock pullback, presenting a potential buying opportunity given Alibaba's long-term prospects.

BSD Analysis:
The recent geopolitical noise surrounding Alibaba, including its brief appearance on a Pentagon list, has caused short-term stock volatility. However, the company's response and the quick retraction of the list suggest limited long-term impact. Alibaba's aggressive investment in AI and cloud infrastructure is a strategic move to secure its position in the rapidly evolving tech landscape. The company's AI initiatives, particularly the Qwen platform, demonstrate its capability to drive consumer engagement and capture market share. Despite short-term margin pressures due to competitive dynamics and infrastructure spending, Alibaba's scale and ecosystem provide a solid foundation for future growth. The stock's current valuation, following a pullback, offers an attractive entry point for investors with a long-term perspective.

Pitch Summary:
After a previously discussed successful trade in 2024, MDRX again became a top-five position following a failed sales process in Q1 2025. I believe the path forward is relatively straightforward: finish the audits, relist the shares in 2026, and then look to return cash to shareholders and/or sell the company if the market does not properly value it. MDRX is presently $4 with $1/sh. in net cash, $1/sh. in other investments, and should generate $0.50-$0.70/sh. in adjusted FCF in a normal year. In a deal with a strategic buyer, I believe $120MM in synergies, or 20% of sales, could be achieved, adding another $1/sh. in FCF. While the SaaS index trades at ~4-5x EV/Sales, MDRX trades at ~0.7x EV/Sales. I believe EHRs will be among the least affected software segments by AI. When relisted, I believe shares will trade at 15x normalized FCF, yielding $7-$11 versus $4.50 today.

BSD Analysis:
Veradigm is currently navigating a period of significant operational and legal headwinds, with its 2026 outlook clouded by a forecast decline in revenue and earnings. The company, formerly known as Allscripts, is struggling to regain its footing following accounting discrepancies and a subsequent delisting from major exchanges. Management has issued preliminary unaudited guidance that reflects the ongoing challenges in its core healthcare data and analytics business, with a focus on a 250 million dollar equity buyback to stabilize the share price. While some value-oriented analysts suggest the stock may be trading below its intrinsic value, the lack of audited financials and the threat of class-action litigation make it a high-risk proposition. The central question for 2026 is whether Veradigm can complete its financial reporting and prove the durability of its data-driven clinical solutions to restore investor trust.

Pitch Summary:
SEG is a holding company with a variety of assets spun out of Howard Hughes as a “bad bank.” Its most important assets are its holdings in the Seaport district of Lower Manhattan and approximately $15 in net cash per share. In 2025, SEG sold 250 Water Street, bringing net cash to ~$15 per share versus a ~$20 stock price. The second large development was signing Meow Wolf as an anchor tenant, taking ~15% of available space and serving as a major traffic driver. Meow Wolf’s opening in H2 2027 should be transformational, driving traffic and boosting restaurant and retail economics. Once fully leased, I believe SEG can generate ~$50MM rental income. A 6.5% cap rate, plus credit for cash and other assets, supports a share price of $70 or better.

BSD Analysis:
Seaport Entertainment Group (SEG), a recent spin-off from Howard Hughes, is being valued by the market as a high-potential turnaround story in the experiential real estate sector. The company's portfolio includes the iconic South Street Seaport in New York and various entertainment-focused assets that are currently seeing a surge in post-pandemic foot traffic. While SEG is currently unprofitable and trades at a modest 2.2 times sales, analysts see significant upside if the company can successfully monetize its high-profile development projects and hospitality venues. Management is prioritizing a capital-light growth model, seeking partnerships to expand its brand presence while maintaining a lean cost structure. For risk-tolerant investors, SEG offers a unique way to play the recovery of premium urban entertainment districts at a valuation that is significantly below the industry average.

Pitch Summary:
STHO is a liquidating security in which the fund has been invested since 2023. Its primary assets are 13.3MM SAFE shares and liquidating real estate in Asbury Park and Richmond. It is a very low-liquidity security, where the stock’s price and fundamental value can move in opposite directions purely due to liquidity. However, STHO has made significant progress toward liquidation over the past three years, and I believe the company will announce significant capital returns in 2026. Since the spin, STHO has realized sales of ~$170MM of real estate versus book value of ~$120MM and reduced land held for development from $224MM to $113MM. STHO has also substantially reduced the management fee owed to SAFE and strengthened its balance sheet, with ~$94MM in cash and bonds versus $115MM credit facility. Its 13.3MM SAFE shares are worth ~$120MM, net of a $91MM margin loan, implying ~$10 per share distribution potential versus an $8 stock price. In 2025, STHO repurchased ~9% of shares outstanding. If STHO continues to make progress and returns capital to shareholders, I believe our ultimate realization should be $20-$30/sh. versus a current price of $8.

BSD Analysis:
Star Holdings is currently in a transitional phase as it seeks to unlock the value of its diversified real estate and legacy asset portfolio. The company's investment thesis for 2026 is centered on a series of strategic divestitures and a more focused approach to its core property management and development operations. While the stock has historically traded at a discount to its net asset value, management is taking active steps to improve transparency and simplify the corporate structure to attract a broader institutional base. Investors are closely watching for updates on the firm's capital allocation strategy, particularly regarding potential share repurchases or special dividends as non-core assets are liquidated. Despite the complexity of its holding structure, Star offers a unique value play for those looking to capitalize on deep-value real estate assets at a significant discount to their intrinsic worth.

Pitch Summary:
SHC’s stock was volatile in 2025 but ultimately finished strong. Despite the share price volatility, SHC remains a predictable, growing, and recession-proof business. These are exactly the attributes we look for in a core holding. Despite the noise, the core business remains a stable franchise that has consistently grown sales and operating profits with zero down years in the last 20 years. Further, 2025 marked an inflection year, with the core Sterigenics segment posting 10% revenue growth, up from ~4-7% in the previous two years. This inflection was driven by Sterigenics finally lapping the inventory destocking that hospitals and distributors saw following COVID-19 hoarding, which lifted volumes from flat to ~5% growth. With destocking in the rearview mirror, SHC is well positioned to return to its historical 10%+ EBITDA growth rate, which is above Street estimates and, I believe, represents a significant catalyst. In addition, SHC should benefit from the tax law changes in the OBBB Act. SHC has been paying a ~34% tax rate because the 2017 tax law lowered the interest deductibility cap from 30% of EBITDA to 30% of EBIT in 2022. The new tax law restores deductibility to EBITDA, which, combined with SHC’s growth and debt paydown, will reduce SHC’s tax rate to the mid-twenties. However, despite the change in the law, the Street still models SHC’s tax rate around 32%. When SHC reports, I anticipate guidance confirming the lowered tax rate, which should boost EPS estimates by ~10%. SHC also saw solid developments on the legal front. They continued to make progress and settled numerous cases in line with previous settlements. Further, SHC saw a significant number of cases dismissed in Georgia for failure to prove causation, which should reduce the future value of settlements in the state. While I anticipate SHC will continue to face litigation and pay settlements, I believe the largest settlements are behind them, and further settlements, like the $31MM in April 2025, are minor bumps rather than material headwinds. Despite improved volumes, changes in tax law, and positive legal developments, SHC remains at a material discount to STE, the other side of their sterilization duopoly. For comparison, STE trades ~25x 2026 EPS and 21x 2027 EPS, versus SHC at 17x and 14x my estimates, respectively. Given the inflecting growth and discount to peers, we retain a large position. I believe our investment is positioned to benefit from SHC’s ~10% EBITDA growth per year, continuing capital returns, and potential multiple expansion. I value SHC at 25x my 2027 EPS estimate of $1.20, implying a $30 valuation versus its current $17 price.

BSD Analysis:
Sotera Health enters 2026 as a leading global provider of mission-critical sterilization and lab testing services, currently recovering from a period of significant litigation-related volatility. The company is focusing on a "back to basics" strategy, emphasizing the essential nature of its end-to-end healthcare solutions for the medical device and pharmaceutical industries. Management has prioritized deleveraging the balance sheet and improving operational efficiency, with recent earnings prints showing a steady return to mid-single-digit organic growth. While regulatory scrutiny on ethylene oxide remains a persistent narrative, Sotera's diverse technology portfolio and dominant market share provide a strong defensive buffer. Analysts are increasingly optimistic about the company's ability to drive margin expansion through specialized lab advisory services, making it a compelling recovery play in the healthcare supply chain.

Pitch Summary:
Likewise, shares of Gruma SAB de CV declined despite strong operating results. Gruma shares trade at only 13x earnings, a true bargain for a company with a such a dominant market share in corn processing and tortilla production.

BSD Analysis:
Gruma is navigating a complex 2026 landscape by leveraging its dominant position in the global corn flour and tortilla markets to offset a more cautious consumer environment in the United States. While the U.S. division has faced volume pressure in the food service channel, the "Better for You" retail line continues to achieve high-margin growth, reflecting a successful pivot toward health-conscious consumers. Management has maintained resilient profitability with an EBITDA margin hovering near 18 percent, supported by operational efficiencies and lower raw material costs as global corn prices trend downward. Strategic expansion in Europe and Central America is currently providing a critical buffer, with European operations achieving mid-teens growth in both sales and EBITDA. The recent S&P Global upgrade of Gruma’s credit rating to BBB+ underscores a robust balance sheet and a stable long-term outlook for cash flow generation. With a valuation currently trading at a significant discount to its ten-year historical average P/E, the stock offers a compelling value proposition for defensive-minded investors. Gruma’s vertical integration and unmatched global scale ensure it remains the primary beneficiary of the enduring popularity of Mexican cuisine staples across all major regions.

Pitch Summary:
North American Food and Agriculture – California farming dynasty J. G. Boswell struggled this year, flipping to losses on lower crop prices and higher expenses. The company continues to own assets worth more than twice its market capitalization, including prime farm acreage and water rights.

BSD Analysis:
J.G. Boswell remains one of the largest and most secretive landowners in the United States, with a 2026 investment thesis tied directly to its massive water rights and agricultural footprint in California’s Central Valley. The company is a dominant force in the global Pima cotton and tomato markets, benefiting from a broadening of global economic activity and a normalization of trade exports. In an environment where land and water are increasingly viewed as strategic inflation hedges, Boswell’s vast holdings provide an asset-rich profile that is largely uncorrelated with broader equity markets. While the company provides limited public guidance, its exposure to the "One Big Beautiful Bill" tax rebates in 2026 is expected to boost consumer demand for its high-end agricultural products. For patient investors, Boswell offers a unique "old-world" asset play on the increasing scarcity of arable land and water resources in the Western United States.