Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Alibaba Group, the leading e-commerce company and AI/cloud service provider in China, performed well during the period due to the market’s increasing confidence on Alibaba’s mid- to long-term earnings growth outlook thanks to Alibaba’s streamlined operations and clear strategies to focus on two growth areas (e-commerce/quick commerce and AI/cloud service) in the next decade. We believe Alibaba can deliver a sustainable double-digit earnings growth outlook in the next two to three years on improving China macroeconomics, Alibaba’s improving monetisation and an increasing addressable market in the retail space, unlocking the new growth opportunities in the AI era.

BSD Analysis:
Alibaba’s refocus on core e-commerce and cloud, together with cost discipline, is restoring operating leverage and cash conversion. On consensus trajectories, revenue and EPS growth should re-accelerate into the mid-teens as China consumption stabilizes and cloud pricing/mix improves; shares trade around a low-teens forward P/E, a discount to large-cap internet peers. The balance sheet remains net cash with robust buyback capacity, which supports per-share value compounding. Key catalysts include ongoing monetization of AI services within Alicloud, faster logistics integration, and potential portfolio simplification. Risks are China macro, competitive intensity, and regulatory shifts, but current valuation embeds much of this. Overall, risk/reward skews favorably as execution tightens and capital returns continue.

Pitch Summary:
The author’s bull thesis on Delcath (DCTH) is built around new data from the CHOPIN trial, which they believe meaningfully expands the total addressable market (TAM) for its liver-directed therapy HEPZATO KIT. They argue that the stock’s recent drop — after lowered guidance — already reflects near-term weakness, which offers a buying opportunity at an EV well under $300 M given the company’s ~$90 M cash position. Modeling out potential future site and kit adoption, the author projects 2028 revenues of $270 M (or even $500 M in a bull-case peak), with high gross margins and operating leverage leading to $130 M EBIT — supporting a $1–2 B valuation (i.e. $22.5–$30/share). They expect cash flow and profitability to improve as utilization ramps, making downside limited and upside significant if clinical momentum and commercialization execution succeed. They plan to hold for 6–12 months to see acceleration.

BSD Analysis:
Delcath represents a high-risk/high-reward small-cap oncology name where success depends critically on adoption of a niche but clinically validated liver-directed therapy. The FDA-approved HEPZATO KIT for metastatic uveal melanoma already provides a commercial base, and recent data from the CHOPIN trial supports potential expansion into liver metastases from other cancers — which materially increases TAM. The company’s business model (kits + procedures) enjoys high gross margins and limited leveraged balance sheet (cash positive, no debt), giving it financial flexibility during commercialization ramp-up. If Delcath can expand center count and improve physician adoption, the leverage from fixed costs suggests considerable earnings power at scale. However, material risks remain: future regulatory or reimbursement hurdles, procedural adoption friction, competition, and the challenge of achieving broad uptake beyond specialist centers. Also, biotech valuations often hinge not just on peak sales but on investor sentiment — and small-cap interventional oncology remains a volatile subsector. While the author’s valuation assumptions are aggressive, they are not implausible — but success likely requires execution, favorable data flow, and a supportive macro/health-care environment.```

Actual Post Content:
Gonna try something new here. Instead of making a substack post or x thread I am just going to give you guys access (viewer) to the actual google docs I am using to compile research and my personal notes on my favorite investment currently $DCTH Thesis I believe share price already reflects management lowered guidance due to Chopin data and lowered guidance for Q3 both occurred on Oct 18 where the sp dropped from $12 - $10. At 4.5x sales with new Chopin data indicating that the TAM for HEPZATO will increase due to its ability to treat liver metastases to increase effectiveness of ICI. (Likely wont be approved for colorectal or breast until 2028+) Chopin greatly increases their TAM and makes a case ti be used as a first line therapy instead of after systemic treatment. Leading to more sites and/or more kit utilization per site. 2028: 45 sites * 3 kits * 12 months * $167,000 = $270m revenues (cagr 47% from 85m) 85% gm = $230m gp Assume sg&a scales from $73m to $100m by 2028 $130m ebit * 15x ebit = $2 billion market cap Profitable with $90m net cash. Leading to low credit risk. Or PT: $30 = $1b valuation / 35m shares Assumes $500m peak sales and 2x peak sales multiple I expect to hold this trade for 6-12 months as Q4 - Q2 starts to show increased sales and increased TAM Or FY2026 PT: 35 sites * 2 kits per site * 12 months * $167k per kit = $140m revenues 85% gm = $119m $80m opex $40m ebit PT: 20x EV/EBIT = $800m mkt cap PT = $22.5 PT Or overtime investors start to forget q3 dip for a much bigger total sales opportunity. $500m at $167k = 3,000 kits = 750 patients $DCTH an FDA commercially approved treatment for liver cancer with peak sales estimates around $350M, just saw positive ph2 results in their additional trials which would expand peak sales to ~$500M if approved Currently trading sub $300M EV ($90M cash, profitable, ramping sales) A conservative fair value for bios should be around 2X peak sales. Would put fair value around $1B or a 3X from here. Trading at range lows of 10-11 range. I have traded this twice 9 to 16, then 11 to 16. Now back down to range lows while business outlook just improved so I think next time we test that range high, we break out. Seeing 20 seems very realistic. 30 (fair value) isn't far-fetched. And in a bio bull, could see much higher as multiples expand beyond fair value. Even if peak sales are $400M. Still trades sub 1X EV/S (big margin of safety) The stock was $15 after recent ph2 results, but completely gave back all gains as company pre announced an expectedly weak Q3 and guided down more than analysts expected. For me? Not a concern. This is a treatment that requires many medical professionals. After investing in med tech for a while, it's common for doctors to take summer off for vacation, so it becomes difficult to schedule treatments. Miss was expected and mgmt is early in their launch and learning. Now we have good and bad news priced in and the price is too low. Expected expanded peak sales from positive data. Lowered 2025 rev guide + now we know the extent of pricing discounts for their treatment (~12%) under rule 340B. So it's all baked in / known info. I wasn't expecting much from their pipeline but this CHOPIN trial data changed my mind. They also have ongoing earlier trials for colorectal and breast cancer. Big positive: they can self-fund trials with cash on hand + earnings.

URL: https://x.com/killapabkai/status/1983494473385480703

Pitch Summary:
The pitch presents a short thesis on PepsiCo, arguing the stock is mispriced due to structurally deteriorating fundamentals in US food and beverage CPG rather than temporary execution issues. The author challenges the recent activist campaign, viewing its arguments as backward-looking and impractical, particularly around bottler refranchising and valuation comps. Pepsi’s North America Foods business, roughly half of profits, is facing sustained volume declines and share losses to private label and smaller, more agile brands. Reported results are argued to be flattered by segment reporting changes, aggressive addbacks, and one-time gains that will become harder to lap. With pricing power eroding and margins under pressure, the author expects disappointment in 2026 results. A re-rating from ~19x EPS toward low-teens multiples could drive meaningful downside from current levels.

BSD Analysis:
PepsiCo is a global food and beverage giant dependent on the high-margin "salty snacks" moat of Frito-Lay. Sector: The US CPG backdrop has permanently soured as the "pricing power" era gives way to a volume-constrained environment where retailers prioritize their own private labels. Dynamics: The company's DSD (Direct Store Delivery) network, once a competitive advantage, is becoming a high-fixed-cost burden as volumes per stop decline. The "Dynamics" of the snack aisle are shifting toward "ankle-biter" brands that offer better ingredients at lower price points, eroding Pepsi's historical shelf-space dominance. In beverages (PBNA), the business is losing the "share of throat" to energy drinks and water, leaving the capital-intensive bottling infrastructure underutilized. The financial dynamics are concerning, characterized by rising restructuring charges and a sudden change in segment reporting (Quaker merge) designed to hide PFNA’s organic decay. A new CFO from Walmart may be the catalyst for a "kitchen-sink" quarter where these accounting games are finally halted.

Pitch Summary:
Turning Point Brands is a U.S. consumer products company with legacy tobacco-related brands (Zig-Zag, Stoker’s) that has pivoted into nicotine pouches as a high-growth profit engine. The thesis is that nicotine pouches are one of the fastest-growing consumer categories, and TPB has the highest public-market exposure to pouches among peers, with pouches already ~26% of sales since launch in Q1 2024. TPB is growing pouch volumes rapidly via FRE distribution expansion and ALP (a 50/50 JV) which is gaining strong velocity in early retail tests and has a large direct-to-consumer base. Near-term catalysts include ALP’s rollout into brick-and-mortar (potentially major chains) and nearshoring pouch production to Louisville, cutting unit costs materially versus the current India copacker and lifting EBITDA. The market may still be anchoring on prior vapor division declines and noisy historical financials, obscuring the quality of the legacy business and the magnitude of the pouch inflection. On conservative assumptions, the author argues TPB can generate outsized value if it reaches meaningful market share in a multi-billion-dollar category by 2030. Key risks include regulatory shocks (PMTA outcomes, flavor bans, youth-usage backlash), intensified competition and price pressure from scaled incumbents, and execution risk in domestic manufacturing ramp.

BSD Analysis:
TPB is a multi-brand platform leveraging "Zig-Zag" and "Stoker's" cash flows to fund high-growth oral nicotine alternatives. Sector: The nicotine pouch sector is disrupting the $82B US cigarette market with a 58% volume CAGR, benefiting from its discreet, "use-anywhere" profile. Dynamics: TPB uses a hybrid distribution model, combining a high-margin DTC subscription base (~30% of ALP sales) with aggressive convenience store (c-store) expansion. The "Dynamics" of the ALP brand are unique, leveraging anti-establishment political branding to drive intense customer loyalty and high per-store velocity. Manufacturing dynamics are shifting from high-cost Indian co-packers to low-cost domestic production, creating a structural margin floor. While Philip Morris (ZYN) dominates the category, TPB’s ability to take share in the "mid-tier" and "value" segments replicates its successful playbook with Stoker’s Moist Snuff. The recent deconsolidation of the "Vape" segment removes a significant regulatory and financial drag, leaving a pure-play growth vehicle.

Pitch Summary:
Diageo remains on the sidelines as the company faces potential challenges in the U.S. market, including inventory adjustments and tariff impacts. The upcoming Q1 sales report on November 7th will be crucial in assessing the company's performance and future prospects.

BSD Analysis:
Diageo's significant exposure to the U.S. market, which accounts for 40% of its sales, poses risks amid ongoing inventory adjustments and tariff-related challenges. The company's reliance on mainstream brands like Smirnoff and Captain Morgan, which have limited growth prospects, further complicates its outlook. However, Diageo's strong presence in the scotch segment, with brands like Johnnie Walker, offers some stability. The upcoming Q1 sales report will provide valuable insights into the company's ability to navigate these challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities in other segments, such as tequila and Canadian whisky. Until then, a cautious approach is warranted.

Pitch Summary:
Rémy Cointreau is facing significant challenges, particularly in the Chinese market, where a 27% decline in sales raises concerns about the future of its cognac segment. The company's heavy reliance on the Asian market, which accounts for 50% of its sales, exacerbates the impact of this downturn.

BSD Analysis:
The sharp decline in Rémy Cointreau's sales in China is a major concern, as the region represents a substantial portion of its revenue. The shift in the Mid-Autumn festival timing does not fully account for the 27% drop, suggesting deeper issues in the cognac market. With Asia being a critical market for Rémy Cointreau, the company's vulnerability to regional economic fluctuations is evident. The decision to sell holdings in Rémy Cointreau reflects a cautious approach, given the uncertainty surrounding the Chinese market and the broader challenges facing the cognac industry. While the company may explore strategies to mitigate these risks, the current outlook remains bearish.

Pitch Summary:
Pernod Ricard's performance in Q1 2025 shows mixed results, with a notable decline in the U.S. market due to inventory adjustments and tariffs, while brands like Jameson and Absolut continue to grow in other regions. The company's strategic focus on expanding its RTD portfolio and premium brands like Glenlivet and Redbreast in the U.S. offers potential growth opportunities.

BSD Analysis:
Pernod Ricard faces challenges in the U.S. market, primarily due to inventory adjustments and tariff impacts, leading to a 16% decline in organic sales. However, the company's strategic emphasis on premium brands and ready-to-drink (RTD) products positions it well for future growth. The resilience of brands like Jameson and Absolut across multiple markets, including Canada, India, and Europe, underscores the strength of its portfolio. Additionally, the company's efforts to penetrate the U.S. market with brands like Glenlivet and Redbreast could yield positive results, given the growing demand for premium spirits. While the short-term outlook is cautious, Pernod Ricard's long-term strategy and brand strength provide a solid foundation for recovery and growth.

Pitch Summary:
LVMH's Champagne segment is experiencing a significant rebound, with a 7% organic growth in Q3 2025, contrasting with the general decline in the spirits market. The luxury positioning of brands like Moet Chandon and Veuve Clicquot is driving this growth, particularly in the U.S., where high-end consumers remain unaffected by broader economic challenges.

BSD Analysis:
LVMH's Champagne brands are benefiting from a luxury market that remains resilient despite economic pressures. The company's strategic focus on high-end products allows it to capitalize on the spending power of affluent consumers, who are less impacted by economic downturns. This resilience is further supported by the ongoing bull market and technological advancements, which continue to create wealth among high-net-worth individuals. The contrast between the performance of LVMH's Champagne segment and the broader spirits market highlights the importance of brand positioning and market segmentation. While the cognac segment faces challenges, the overall outlook for LVMH remains positive, driven by its diverse portfolio and strong brand equity.