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Pitch Summary:
Plover Bay, a Hong Kong-based networking firm, exemplifies Longriver’s focus on owner-operator, asset-light businesses. Its Peplink routers and SpeedFusion technology enable seamless failover and bandwidth aggregation across multiple connections, crucial for remote, mobile, and industrial applications. The company’s partnership with Starlink as an authorized technology provider expanded deployments in cruise lines, mining, and emer...
Pitch Summary:
Plover Bay, a Hong Kong-based networking firm, exemplifies Longriver’s focus on owner-operator, asset-light businesses. Its Peplink routers and SpeedFusion technology enable seamless failover and bandwidth aggregation across multiple connections, crucial for remote, mobile, and industrial applications. The company’s partnership with Starlink as an authorized technology provider expanded deployments in cruise lines, mining, and emergency services. With ROE near 78% and growing subscriptions from its InControl platform, Plover Bay’s recurring revenue mix continues to rise.
BSD Analysis:
Plover Bay builds high-performance SD-WAN and wireless connectivity gear at attractive margins, serving SMBs and edge deployments globally. Demand is rising as enterprises shift to hybrid networks and remote monitoring. Asset-light, cash-generative, and disciplined, Plover Bay consistently punches above its weight. The market underrates its niche dominance. Solid EM tech compounder with strong fundamentals.
Pitch Summary:
Last quarter, we discussed how management at Dentsply Sirona, Inc. (XRAY), one of the world’s leading suppliers of dental equipment and supplies, had been laying the groundwork for a turnaround for more than two years. Those efforts had yet to be reflected in the stock price. In the third quarter, CEO Simon Campion stepped down after three years at the helm and was replaced by Daniel Scavilla. Under Campion, XRAY focused on SKU rat...
Pitch Summary:
Last quarter, we discussed how management at Dentsply Sirona, Inc. (XRAY), one of the world’s leading suppliers of dental equipment and supplies, had been laying the groundwork for a turnaround for more than two years. Those efforts had yet to be reflected in the stock price. In the third quarter, CEO Simon Campion stepped down after three years at the helm and was replaced by Daniel Scavilla. Under Campion, XRAY focused on SKU rationalization and other cost initiatives but failed to keep up with its peers in terms of top-line growth. CEO Scavilla has a record of sales success at Globus Medical Inc. and Johnson & Johnson. We are encouraged by his initial strategies to arm the sales force better to go to market with the company’s existing portfolio and near-term goals to improve margins and free cash flows. Dentsply was among the Fund’s worst performers for the quarter, however trading at 6.7X estimated earnings, its valuation seems extremely discounted. Thus we will remain patient and sit tight with the position believing that the upside potential far outweighs the downside risk. However, our patience has a limit, and we will closely monitor XRAY’s progress.
BSD Analysis:
Leadership change plus a renewed sales focus could catalyze a multi-year margin and FCF recovery on top of prior SKU rationalization. At ~6–7x EPS, the stock embeds low expectations; execution could drive a sharp re-rating. Monitor organic growth reacceleration, gross margin lift, and working capital discipline. Downside contained by valuation; thesis rests on operating turnaround.
Pitch Summary:
Another industry leader that caught our attention in early 2024 is Calavo (CVGW), which is headquartered in Santa Paula, California. Their unique health-conscious food products were intriguing, but they were in the midst of a management transition, so it was put on our watch list. After a series of research calls uncovering an improving outlook, we began to accumulate the stock early this year. CVGW is a leading marketer and distri...
Pitch Summary:
Another industry leader that caught our attention in early 2024 is Calavo (CVGW), which is headquartered in Santa Paula, California. Their unique health-conscious food products were intriguing, but they were in the midst of a management transition, so it was put on our watch list. After a series of research calls uncovering an improving outlook, we began to accumulate the stock early this year. CVGW is a leading marketer and distributor of avocados and guacamole. After a multi-year period of mismanagement that included several CEOs, the long-time former chief executive came out of retirement to stabilize operations. He is aligned with shareholders receiving large equity grants that vest significantly higher than current stock levels and has purchased a sizeable number of shares in the open market. Since returning to the business, he has focused on exiting low-margin business lines and growing the prepared guacamole business that was 10% of total sales last year but has double the gross margin of the core business. This business grew +40% YOY in the latest quarter. CVGW believes they can double the size of this business within the next two years, which would be fruitful for Calavo’s earnings potential. The evolving narrative positions Calavo less as a commodity-dependent packer and more as a growing “fresh + value-added” food company. If management can scale the prepared guacamole business, control costs, and navigate tax/regulatory risks, we believe shareholders will be rewarded. We aren’t the only believers. Calavo received an unsolicited buyout offer for $32 a share in July. Further, the downside risk seems to be limited, supported by a solid balance sheet that includes around $3.50 per share of net cash plus $3 a share of cash potentially from the resolution of a long-standing dispute with Mexican tax authorities.
BSD Analysis:
Management’s return-to-core, mix shift to higher-margin prepared foods, and cost control underpin EPS recovery. With potential strategic interest ($32 offer) and net cash, downside looks buffered. If prepared guac doubles, margin profile and multiple should re-rate toward branded food peers. Key risks: avocado pricing volatility and regulatory/tax outcomes.
Pitch Summary:
A good example is Potbelly (PBPB), the sub sandwich chain which had been a long-term winner for us before it was acquired during the quarter by the convenience store operator RaceTrac at a +32% premium. We first purchased Potbelly in March 2021, a time when the environment for the restaurant sector was uncertain with depressed sales coming out of COVID-19 lock-downs. It was the fundamentals and strong insider buying that caught o...
Pitch Summary:
A good example is Potbelly (PBPB), the sub sandwich chain which had been a long-term winner for us before it was acquired during the quarter by the convenience store operator RaceTrac at a +32% premium. We first purchased Potbelly in March 2021, a time when the environment for the restaurant sector was uncertain with depressed sales coming out of COVID-19 lock-downs. It was the fundamentals and strong insider buying that caught our attention. The new CEO at the time, Bob Wright, came out of retirement to turn around a strong brand that had been mismanaged and was no longer growing. He had a long career in restaurants including prior stints as chief operating officer of Wendy’s and as chief executive officer of Charley’s Cheesesteaks. He surrounded himself with an executive team that had successful restaurant careers, many of whom he worked with in prior roles. The team focused on improving operations through a long list of initiatives. The efforts resulted in consistent same-store growth above restaurant peers and a structural improvement in margins. With operations stabilized, Potbelly is pivoting to growth mode with a target of 2,000 shops from its current footprint of 454. The transformation from a mismanaged restaurant company to a fast-growing franchise worth acquiring proved fruitful for investors.
BSD Analysis:
Classic turnaround → growth story: new leadership, ops overhaul, SSS outperformance, and margin expansion culminating in a takeout premium. While the position exits via M&A, it validates the thesis of brand rehabilitation and franchising runway. For comps, watch unit economics and digital mix; for proceeds redeployment, maintain discipline.
Pitch Summary:
Information Technology. A standout Quality Value holding was Lam Research (LRCX). Lam is a supplier of semiconductor capital equipment (SemiCap) with a leading market position in technology integral to the production of the chip industry’s most advanced integrated circuits. Over the past decade, the SemiCap industry has consolidated, with 5 companies controlling almost 75% of the market. Lam is dominant in the Etch market, a proces...
Pitch Summary:
Information Technology. A standout Quality Value holding was Lam Research (LRCX). Lam is a supplier of semiconductor capital equipment (SemiCap) with a leading market position in technology integral to the production of the chip industry’s most advanced integrated circuits. Over the past decade, the SemiCap industry has consolidated, with 5 companies controlling almost 75% of the market. Lam is dominant in the Etch market, a process by which chips are created by selectively removing materials from the wafer to transfer patterns. Industry consolidation and improved customer profitability helped create a structurally more profitable SemiCap industry over time. Lam’s leadership position with Memory customers proved fortuitous, as many of the key applications used by those customers became mission-critical for manufacturers producing today’s leading-edge chips (even outside of the Memory industry). This leaves the company uniquely positioned to gain share in an industry that already benefits from structurally higher customer capital intensity and growing base of recurring revenue. A cyclical downturn and market volatility earlier this year gave us the chance to buy shares at a compelling valuation. A new upcycle and clear market share gains helped drive strong recent performance in the shares.
BSD Analysis:
Lam benefits from oligopolistic structure, rising wafer-fab capex intensity, and etch leadership tied to advanced nodes. Memory-led position is now leveraged into logic/foundry, boosting share gains. Recurring spares/service add resilience. On a mid-cycle EV/EBITDA, shares retain upside into the upcycle; key risk is export controls and capex timing.
Pitch Summary:
Consumer Discretionary. Our best-performing holding in the quarter, D.R. Horton (DHI), came from our Deep Value bucket. The largest homebuilder in the country, DHI enjoys around a 10% market share with scale advantages in a highly fragmented industry. The company has a particularly strong position in entry-level homes. To produce affordable housing, D.R. Horton runs the business with speculative inventory, meaning it builds homes b...
Pitch Summary:
Consumer Discretionary. Our best-performing holding in the quarter, D.R. Horton (DHI), came from our Deep Value bucket. The largest homebuilder in the country, DHI enjoys around a 10% market share with scale advantages in a highly fragmented industry. The company has a particularly strong position in entry-level homes. To produce affordable housing, D.R. Horton runs the business with speculative inventory, meaning it builds homes before buyer contracts are signed. This allows the company to operate the business more like a manufacturer thereby reducing unit costs with most savings passed to the homebuyer. To accommodate this business model, the company’s balance sheet is notably strong, allowing for maximum flexibility in capital allocation. For more than a decade, management pivoted the company’s balance sheet away from owning large swaths of undeveloped land, preferring instead to use less capital-intensive methods to source buildable lots. This self-help strategy reduced the capital commitment to the business and increased returns on investments. Along with the entire homebuilding industry, DHI sold off late in late 2024 and early this year, owing to weak demand and heavy discounting across the industry. We used the selloff to establish a position, marking our fourth time owning DHI. We further increased our weighting during the broad market selloff at the end of the first quarter and in early Q2. The stock rose sharply this quarter on earnings that beat analyst expectations on both home deliveries and gross margin. In addition, orders — while flat year over year — exceeded the street’s expectations by more than 4 percentage points. Management accelerated its share repurchases, buying back more than 3% of the company in Q3 alone. That, plus falling long-term interest rates and a 13-F filing by Berkshire Hathaway detailing a new stake in DHI, also propelled the shares. DHI currently trades at 2.1x book value, which is slightly higher than the company’s long-term median multiple of 1.8x. In our view, the company’s return on and of capital has structurally improved, which will inflate this multiple, all else equal. If not for $7 billion of share repurchases over the past 12 quarters, DHI would be trading at a discount of 1.5x, despite a sustainable return on equity of greater than 15%.
BSD Analysis:
DHI’s spec-build model and lot-light strategy drive cost advantages and higher ROIC, supporting premium-to-history P/B. Beat-and-raise quarter, robust orders, and >3% buyback in Q3 show strong cash generation. With entry-level exposure and falling rates, volumes and margins can hold; Berkshire’s stake adds validation. Watch cycle sensitivity and land pipeline discipline.
Pitch Summary:
Prestige Consumer Healthcare (PBH) — the company behind familiar over-the-counter medical products such as Dramamine, Luden’s cough drops, and Clear Eyes eye drops — was the biggest detractor to our Strategy’s performance during the quarter. That’s in part because PBH missed earnings forecasts and took down its full fiscal year EPS estimates due to supply chain issues related to its eye care business. Its core supplier was not abl...
Pitch Summary:
Prestige Consumer Healthcare (PBH) — the company behind familiar over-the-counter medical products such as Dramamine, Luden’s cough drops, and Clear Eyes eye drops — was the biggest detractor to our Strategy’s performance during the quarter. That’s in part because PBH missed earnings forecasts and took down its full fiscal year EPS estimates due to supply chain issues related to its eye care business. Its core supplier was not able to ship enough products to meet demand for PBH’s Clear Eyes business. The company took action to fix this supply chain issue, opting to acquire its eye care supplier for $100 million. This former supplier will now be 100% focused on producing for PBH after being brought in-house. We expect PBH’s FY 2027 earnings to bounce back nicely as the core business is operating well and expect a rebound in PBH’s profitable eye care business as customers re-stock inventory. At its price of $63 at the end of the third quarter, Prestige shares were trading at 13.8 times 2027 earnings. But we expect multiple expansion, as the company earnings are set to accelerate after addressing its supply chain issues.
BSD Analysis:
Near-term execution hiccups in eye care drove a guide-down, but vertical integration of the supplier should stabilize supply and margins. Core OTC portfolio is steady, suggesting earnings normalization into FY27. At a teens P/E on out-year EPS, multiple expansion is plausible as inventory restocking and in-house manufacturing flow through gross margin. Monitor integration risk and working capital cadence.
Pitch Summary:
Our top performer for the quarter was Materion Corp. (MTRN), a vertically integrated producer of high-performance advanced engineered materials based on beryllium, a rare metal that is one-third lighter than aluminum but has six times the stiffness of steel. MTRN has been taking several steps to improve operations and bolster margins during a slower overall period for some of its end markets, such as autos, industrials, and life sc...
Pitch Summary:
Our top performer for the quarter was Materion Corp. (MTRN), a vertically integrated producer of high-performance advanced engineered materials based on beryllium, a rare metal that is one-third lighter than aluminum but has six times the stiffness of steel. MTRN has been taking several steps to improve operations and bolster margins during a slower overall period for some of its end markets, such as autos, industrials, and life sciences. Over the past year, as demand has remained subdued, management divested its unprofitable Architectural Glass business in New Mexico while expanding high-margin capacity for advanced semiconductor capabilities in South Korea. The stock recently experienced outsized strength post tariff fears as Materion produced record margins with guidance for accelerating growth as a variety of end markets have visibility to a sustained rebound in demand. Though the stock has bounced back, it’s still trading at an attractive price. If MTRN shares reach our target, that would still be a just 1.7x FY 2026 sales and 12x EBITDA.
BSD Analysis:
Materion is executing a quality-of-earnings upgrade—exiting low-margin glass, adding high-margin semi capacity, and printing record margins. As autos/industrial/life sciences recover, mix will skew to higher-return nodes (semis/aero). Balance sheet and vertical integration support durable FCF. If mid-cycle multiples approach 12x EBITDA (as management implies), upside remains; key risk is cyclical demand slippage.
Pitch Summary:
Another example is Phinia Inc. (PHIN), an auto parts company spun off from Borg Warner in 2023 that makes fuel systems for vehicle manufacturers and the aftermarket. In our opinion, the market has been overly pessimistic on PHIN’s outlook in the aftermath of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcements on tariffs, and large insider purchases by the company’s CEO and two directors helped confirm our view. We believe PHIN has a ...
Pitch Summary:
Another example is Phinia Inc. (PHIN), an auto parts company spun off from Borg Warner in 2023 that makes fuel systems for vehicle manufacturers and the aftermarket. In our opinion, the market has been overly pessimistic on PHIN’s outlook in the aftermath of President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ announcements on tariffs, and large insider purchases by the company’s CEO and two directors helped confirm our view. We believe PHIN has a variety of ways to win, especially relative to other companies in the auto parts category. In its legacy auto OEM business, PHIN is the third player in a three-company oligopoly that collectively controls roughly 80%-90% market share. The second-biggest player in this group has deemphasized this category since COVID-19, resulting in 4%-5% market share gains for PHIN. We believe this trend is likely to continue, and PHIN could control around 20% of the market by 2030, up from the mid-teens today. The company also has considerable exposure to the relatively stable after-market auto parts end-market, which accounts for approximately 40% of the company’s revenues and close to half of its operating profits. We believe Phinia’s after-market business could grow at a mid-single digit percentage CAGR with less cyclicality, as it is based on replacement of critical engine components. Additionally, PHIN has multiple revenue growth opportunities in under-penetrated end-markets such as aerospace, off-highway vehicles and hybrid vehicles that were overlooked as part of the much larger Borg Warner entity. Following PHIN’s spin-off, management has executed on cost savings initiatives to improve margins and used free cash flow to consistently buyback stock and de-lever the balance sheet. PHIN is hitting on all three of the main capital allocation criteria we look for, which gives us even more confidence. Yet the stock is trading at a modest 6x EV/EBITDA. We believe PHIN is being valued by the market as an OEM auto parts manufacturer even though that exposure is less than 30% of revenue. As PHIN’s after-market and industrial end-market exposures continue to grow, we think PHIN should receive a multiple closer to after-market auto parts and industrial companies that trade in the 8-12x EV/EBITDA range.
BSD Analysis:
The thesis is market-share gains in an oligopoly, a resilient 40% aftermarket mix, and self-help (cost saves, deleveraging, buybacks) against tariff noise. At ~6x EV/EBITDA vs. 8–12x comps, rerating potential is meaningful as mix tilts to aftermarket/industrial. Watch free-cash-flow conversion and OEM volume sensitivity; insider buying and debt paydown are supportive signals. Catalysts: continued share wins, margin expansion, and capital returns.
Pitch Summary:
These are companies like Brady Corp. (BRC), a leading manufacturer of ID solutions and workplace safety products. In our view, the company is allocating capital wisely: They are actively buying back stock, consistently increasing dividends, and pursuing tuck-in acquisitions that complement their core business — all while maintaining low leverage. The company’s core business is identification solutions for commercial products, allow...
Pitch Summary:
These are companies like Brady Corp. (BRC), a leading manufacturer of ID solutions and workplace safety products. In our view, the company is allocating capital wisely: They are actively buying back stock, consistently increasing dividends, and pursuing tuck-in acquisitions that complement their core business — all while maintaining low leverage. The company’s core business is identification solutions for commercial products, allowing clients to trace and track parts. Brady’s niche is printers and related consumables such as labels for rugged industrial markets. This has been a year of restructuring and cost cutting for Brady, which is part of the company’s self-help story. Recently, management has called out strong growth in Aerospace and Data Center end markets, with the Data Center strength focused on BRC’s wire marking business. We believe the company will begin to reap the benefits of these efforts starting next year, and in its most recent quarterly earnings announcement, Brady reported 2026 guidance that was above expectations. Still, the stock trades at a reasonable valuation. Our current price target for BRC would represent 18x our 2026 EPS estimate.
BSD Analysis:
Brady’s mix of high-margin printers/consumables and disciplined capital allocation (buybacks/dividends/tuck-ins) supports steady FCF compounding. Restructuring and end-market tailwinds (aerospace, data centers) should lift margins in 2026, with upside to EPS if wire-marking demand persists. Balance sheet leverage is low, giving room for incremental M&A. Shares typically trade on mid-teens to high-teens P/E; execution on cost-outs and growth could justify the upper end.
Pitch Summary:
Lastly, a.k.a. Brands (AKA) stock price remains stagnant despite tremendous sales growth. The company posted another solid quarter while moving most of their supply chain out of China in the face of new tariffs. Their valuation seems far too low and management continues to outperform their targets. Both the board members and CEO have incentives to increase their stock price from the current $10 level to over $100, the kind of align...
Pitch Summary:
Lastly, a.k.a. Brands (AKA) stock price remains stagnant despite tremendous sales growth. The company posted another solid quarter while moving most of their supply chain out of China in the face of new tariffs. Their valuation seems far too low and management continues to outperform their targets. Both the board members and CEO have incentives to increase their stock price from the current $10 level to over $100, the kind of alignment you love to see. Volume on the stock remains very limited, but their strong execution can only go so long before catching some attention.
BSD Analysis:
AKA is fighting brutal e-commerce headwinds — rising CAC, heavy discounting, and weak discretionary spend — but the company is aggressively restructuring to preserve cash and narrow losses. Brand fatigue is real, yet some banners retain strong customer affinity. The stock prices in near-collapse, which creates upside if even modest execution improves. A beaten-down turnaround with binary characteristics.
Pitch Summary:
While less of a drag on Q3, Magnera Corporation (MAGN) stock price remains stuck in neutral. Their business remains stable in the U.S. and Europe, but tariffs have redirected trade flows and pressured their South American business. Management has been proactive on cost takeouts and capacity reductions across their portfolio, and we expect these efforts to shine through when they report their full year results in the coming months. ...
Pitch Summary:
While less of a drag on Q3, Magnera Corporation (MAGN) stock price remains stuck in neutral. Their business remains stable in the U.S. and Europe, but tariffs have redirected trade flows and pressured their South American business. Management has been proactive on cost takeouts and capacity reductions across their portfolio, and we expect these efforts to shine through when they report their full year results in the coming months. MAGN closed one of their five South American plants, with more rationalization expected to follow. MAGN debt is termed out until 2029, and we expect signs of their business rebound to appear in the coming year’s results. We are happy with Management’s execution and believe the stock price will eventually follow.
BSD Analysis:
Magnera is building a digital-first real-estate services platform in the Nordics, combining brokerage, asset management, and smart-building tech. Still early, but the model has real operating leverage once scale hits. Market volatility has obscured solid execution and rising recurring revenue. Small-cap liquidity punishes the stock, but fundamentals point upward. A long-term Nordic prop-tech sleeper.
Pitch Summary:
Our biggest detractor in Q3, WW International (WW) is the successor to the old Weight Watchers entity which filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. We have found post-bankruptcy entities to be historically attractive opportunities, but this one has yet to pay off. We remain intrigued by the growth of their clinical business, though the market seems concerned they will not be able to continue their prior growth after the recent FDA ...
Pitch Summary:
Our biggest detractor in Q3, WW International (WW) is the successor to the old Weight Watchers entity which filed for bankruptcy earlier this year. We have found post-bankruptcy entities to be historically attractive opportunities, but this one has yet to pay off. We remain intrigued by the growth of their clinical business, though the market seems concerned they will not be able to continue their prior growth after the recent FDA curtailment of GLP-1 compounding. Recent partnerships with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk give us some confidence, and the company’s repaired balance sheet gives them some time to navigate the rapidly evolving GLP-1 environment. The avenues for weight loss may have increased, but no other business has a better reputation for addressing behavioral changes needed to maintain a healthy lifestyle.
BSD Analysis:
WW is trying to reinvent itself amid the GLP-1 revolution, shifting from calorie-counting legacy to modern weight-health platform. The pivot is messy, but subscription economics are stabilizing and digital engagement is rising. Debt is heavy, but if the GLP-1 integration strategy clicks, WW becomes a sticky behavioral platform rather than a fad diet business. High risk, high optionality.
Pitch Summary:
While our ownership was brief, we are thankful to have owned Genesco (GCO). Their May earnings report disappointed investors and the stock traded below $20, representing less than 5x their expected EBITDA for the year. However, while many footwear companies have floundered navigating the current tariff environment, GCO is growing sales through their revised Journey’s concept. GCO also collected a $59m tax refund in Q2 (20% of their...
Pitch Summary:
While our ownership was brief, we are thankful to have owned Genesco (GCO). Their May earnings report disappointed investors and the stock traded below $20, representing less than 5x their expected EBITDA for the year. However, while many footwear companies have floundered navigating the current tariff environment, GCO is growing sales through their revised Journey’s concept. GCO also collected a $59m tax refund in Q2 (20% of their valuation at the time) which solidified their strong financial position. The market eventually recognized the value proposition, and we sold our position for over a 50% gain after just a few months.
BSD Analysis:
Genesco is battling through harsh footwear and apparel trends, but Journeys remains a traffic engine with a fiercely loyal customer base. Cost actions are underway, inventory is cleaner, and the balance sheet isn’t as stressed as investors fear. The stock trades like a failing retailer, yet the business retains real brand equity. Classic deep-value retail optionality.
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a position in Apartment Investment Management Company (AIV) during the third quarter. The opportunity re-surfaced when the company announced the sale of their Boston multi-family apartment assets, initially sending the stock higher before it declined in the following days. While investors seemed dissatisfied with the sale price on the Boston portfolio, we see this as the clearest signal yet that the company will fully ...
Pitch Summary:
We initiated a position in Apartment Investment Management Company (AIV) during the third quarter. The opportunity re-surfaced when the company announced the sale of their Boston multi-family apartment assets, initially sending the stock higher before it declined in the following days. While investors seemed dissatisfied with the sale price on the Boston portfolio, we see this as the clearest signal yet that the company will fully liquidate their remaining properties. We expect most of our invested cash to be returned within a few months given the incoming dividend from the Boston sale, proceeds from their Brickell sale (expected by year end), and the expected sale of their remaining apartment complexes. They still own multi-family units generating about $90m of operating income, and numerous in-progress development sites that we estimate to be worth another $6-7/share on top of the announced transactions.
BSD Analysis:
AIV is a complex, deep-value REIT restructuring story after its split with Aimco, with litigation noise overshadowing improving property fundamentals. Leverage is high but manageable, and asset quality is better than the stock implies. The market hates uncertainty — but once this legal fog clears, NAV recovery looks meaningful. Pure contrarian real-estate upside.
Pitch Summary:
United Natural Foods (UNFI) exemplifies our approach to developing edge through misunderstood situations. Despite a cyber-attack that paralyzed their distribution network for over 10% of the most recent quarter, management still exceeded sales guidance — demonstrating exceptional execution under pressure. The cyber event appears mostly covered by insurance and has deepened customer relationships rather than strained them. Managemen...
Pitch Summary:
United Natural Foods (UNFI) exemplifies our approach to developing edge through misunderstood situations. Despite a cyber-attack that paralyzed their distribution network for over 10% of the most recent quarter, management still exceeded sales guidance — demonstrating exceptional execution under pressure. The cyber event appears mostly covered by insurance and has deepened customer relationships rather than strained them. Management's September 30th guidance for the upcoming year shows continued execution well ahead of Wall Street expectations. With $300m of free cash flow expected from operations in FY26, another $150m from cyber insurance proceeds and asset sales, UNFI trades below 6x EV/EBITDA—a persistent discount to peers.
BSD Analysis:
UNFI is stuck in a tough spot — food inflation, contract pressure, and a bloated cost structure — but operational improvements are finally trickling in. The balance sheet is stretched, yet cash flow is stabilizing and inventory discipline is improving. The market prices UNFI like it’s heading for distress, but the core business is still viable. High risk, but sentiment has overshot the fundamentals.
Pitch Summary:
We purchased FirstService Corp., the North American leader in community management for homeowners and condominium associations with approximately 7% market share and the opportunity for steady tuck-in acquisitions. FSV also has branded property services in areas like fire protection, restoration, roofing, closets, and painting. These are all in expanding, fragmented markets with strong share positions. Due to a long growth runway a...
Pitch Summary:
We purchased FirstService Corp., the North American leader in community management for homeowners and condominium associations with approximately 7% market share and the opportunity for steady tuck-in acquisitions. FSV also has branded property services in areas like fire protection, restoration, roofing, closets, and painting. These are all in expanding, fragmented markets with strong share positions. Due to a long growth runway and proven management, we see strong compounding potential.
BSD Analysis:
FirstService offers a long growth runway via steady acquisitions in fragmented essential property services markets. Recurring HOA management revenues and disciplined M&A provide resilience and compounding potential. At ~25x forward earnings, its asset-light model and defensive cash flow justify premium valuation; growth upside from margin expansion and cross-selling synergies.
Pitch Summary:
Peoplein delivered resilient results despite weak employment volumes. Revenue fell 6%, but cash generation remained strong as the firm reduced debt and lowered costs. Management commentary suggests early signs of recovery, with long-term growth supported by infrastructure and defense projects tied to the 2032 Olympics. Forager highlighted the company’s strong balance sheet and attractive valuation (~16% FCF yield).
BSD Analysis:
P...
Pitch Summary:
Peoplein delivered resilient results despite weak employment volumes. Revenue fell 6%, but cash generation remained strong as the firm reduced debt and lowered costs. Management commentary suggests early signs of recovery, with long-term growth supported by infrastructure and defense projects tied to the 2032 Olympics. Forager highlighted the company’s strong balance sheet and attractive valuation (~16% FCF yield).
BSD Analysis:
Peoplein’s disciplined cost control and balance sheet repair create a solid foundation for recovery. With macro catalysts in infrastructure spending and defense, the company could re-rate as visibility improves. labor, recruitment, infrastructure, cash flow, valuation, recovery, growth
Pitch Summary:
Cuscal was the standout performer in the Forager Australian Shares Fund. The company provides mission-critical payments infrastructure for smaller financial institutions and announced the $75 million acquisition of peer Indue. The merger will consolidate the sector and unlock significant synergies, with $15–20 million in expected post-tax cost savings by 2029. Cuscal reported 10% transaction volume growth and 16% EPS growth, exceed...
Pitch Summary:
Cuscal was the standout performer in the Forager Australian Shares Fund. The company provides mission-critical payments infrastructure for smaller financial institutions and announced the $75 million acquisition of peer Indue. The merger will consolidate the sector and unlock significant synergies, with $15–20 million in expected post-tax cost savings by 2029. Cuscal reported 10% transaction volume growth and 16% EPS growth, exceeding prospectus forecasts. With recurring revenue and long-term contracts, it has become the fund’s largest holding.
BSD Analysis:
Cuscal’s scale advantages and recurring revenue base underpin sustainable double-digit EPS growth. The Indue integration offers structural margin expansion. Trading at ~20x forward earnings, valuation is justified by strong execution, cost synergies, and index inclusion potential.
Pitch Summary:
IDP endured a difficult FY2025 due to government restrictions on international students in Australia and Canada. Revenue fell 15% and net profit 58%. However, the company retains dominant market share, strong brand equity, and pricing power. Government policy is now shifting more supportive, with increased student caps announced in August 2025. Forager believes the worst is over, with volumes and sentiment poised to recover. Struct...
Pitch Summary:
IDP endured a difficult FY2025 due to government restrictions on international students in Australia and Canada. Revenue fell 15% and net profit 58%. However, the company retains dominant market share, strong brand equity, and pricing power. Government policy is now shifting more supportive, with increased student caps announced in August 2025. Forager believes the worst is over, with volumes and sentiment poised to recover. Structural demand for international education remains intact.
BSD Analysis:
IDP’s market leadership and pricing power support a medium-term earnings recovery. Shares trade at ~15x forward earnings after a 90% drawdown and partial rebound. As student mobility normalizes, operating leverage should drive substantial profit improvement.