Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Amphenol (APH) delivered strong Q2 results and provided an upbeat Q3 outlook, which were both well received by investors. Revenue growth is being supported by AI-related product design wins, including contributions to NVIDIA’s new Blackwell NVL platform, expected to ramp in the second half of 2025. Beyond IT datacom and AI, Amphenol benefits from a diversified portfolio across a wide range of end markets, all tied to the secular trend of greater connectivity and intelligence in devices. Coupled with its entrepreneurial culture, disciplined capital allocation, and leading market position, Amphenol appears to be well positioned to gain share in the global connector market, while sustaining best-in-class margins and returns on invested capital.

BSD Analysis:
Amphenol is an electrification powerhouse hiding behind a “connectors” label — automotive, aerospace, industrial automation, defense, cloud — it’s everywhere electrons need to move reliably. Its decentralized operating model and consistent M&A strategy produce some of the cleanest margins in industrial tech. End-market diversity makes earnings absurdly stable. This isn’t a cyclical industrial; it’s a quiet compounder with decades-long tailwinds.

Pitch Summary:
Oracle’s stock responded positively to its FQ1 2026 (August quarter) results, which many on Wall Street have characterized as the company’s “NVIDIA moment.” Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO; like contracted bookings) increased by $317 billion sequentially, reaching approximately $455 billion. This unprecedented surge was driven by four multi-billion-dollar contracts with three large customers who support training and inference workloads for leading large language model providers.
Management outlined a multi-year revenue roadmap that calls for $144 billion in its OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) revenue by FY 2030, a striking step-up from approximately $10 billion reported in FY 2025. The scale and duration of these contracts are unmatched in the industry, and Oracle expects additional multi-billion-dollar deals to push RPO beyond $500 billion by fiscal year-end 2026. We believe Oracle is emerging as a Tier-1 hyperscale cloud provider, now viewed as a true peer to Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud Platform, and AWS.
While IaaS revenue carries lower gross margins compared to Oracle’s core database and enterprise SaaS businesses, the sheer scale of growth is set to drive accelerating revenue and EPS expansion over the intermediate term. We continue to hold our position in ORCL as the company gains meaningful share in the rapidly expanding generative AI market.

BSD Analysis:
Oracle’s AI cloud has gone from punchline to legitimate contender, with OCI’s low-latency network and aggressive GPU rollout winning surprising enterprise workloads. The database modernization cycle is sticky, recurring, and margin-rich. Cerner is stabilizing and no longer a drag on the story. The market still values Oracle like a melting legacy vendor, but the cloud trajectory says otherwise. Quietly, Oracle has become a second-derivative AI infrastructure play that’s still materially undervalued.

Pitch Summary:
Apple shares rebounded in Q3 2025 as investor concerns over both tariffs and the early adoption of its generative AI product, Apple Intelligence, eased. Attention shifted instead to the favorable resolution of Alphabet’s DOJ trial, seen as a positive for both Apple and Alphabet, and to healthy initial demand for the fall launch of the iPhone 17.
We continue to view Apple as a competitively advantaged business, anchored by the strength of its ecosystem. With over 2 billion active devices and more than 1 billion paying subscribers, Apple benefits from a loyal customer base and a growing stream of high-margin, recurring services revenue. This stable cash flow enables continued investment in innovation, even during periods of cyclical softness. We believe Apple remains well positioned to lead in the emerging category of AI-enabled edge devices.

BSD Analysis:
Apple’s growth engine isn’t flashy right now, but its profit machine is still unmatched — ecosystem lock-in, premium pricing, and a services mix that prints cash even in a lukewarm hardware cycle. AI integration is late but not irrelevant; Apple has a history of turning “slow starts” into industry dominance once the UX is perfected. With gross margins near all-time highs and buybacks as aggressive as ever, the stock remains a safe compounder wrapped in an underestimated innovation cycle. It’s not high-torque, but it’s bulletproof.

Pitch Summary:
Speaking of energy, Drax has executed a herculean shift, moving from fossil fuels to become the UK’s largest renewable energy provider. It now supplies around 5% of the nation’s power. Our Kernow valuation framework indicates a value of £5bn. The market says £2.5bn. That gap made us take a closer look.
The crux is whether new favourable contracts will be agreed for its assets. Currently, these are disliked by all parties. Shipping Canadian forests across the ocean just to set them on fire in Yorkshire upsets everyone. Environmentalists call them a crime, fossil fuel loyalists call them a joke, and the trees are not particularly keen on it either.
Even so, power is life. Policy will change, and Drax has demonstrated its ability to adapt. We are drawn to this puzzle of uncertainty and have yet to figure it out. It could take more than a year.

BSD Analysis:
Drax sits at the center of the U.K.’s energy transition debate — part renewable champion, part political punching bag. Biomass economics are strong, earnings are stable, and the company’s long-term BECCS strategy provides massive upside if policy aligns. Markets hate uncertainty, but Drax’s assets are high-quality cash generators. A controversial setup with asymmetric optionality if subsidies go their way.

Pitch Summary:
Wise appears meaningfully undervalued when compared to Revolut’s latest US$75bn valuation round. That comparison implies a fair value for Wise closer to US$35bn. Today, it trades at just US$14bn. The company’s US expansion is gaining real traction. If execution continues, a re-rating over the next 18 months looks well within reach.

BSD Analysis:
Wise keeps disrupting cross-border payments with unbeatable fees, fast settlement, and a user base that keeps compounding. The float income kicker remains strong as higher rates flow through earnings. Operating leverage is showing up, churn is low, and Wise’s regulatory and compliance moat is deeper than critics admit. The stock trades like a niche fintech when in reality Wise is taking global share at scale. A stealth long-term compounder.

Pitch Summary:
Saga took centre stage as its interim results beat expectations. The new management team is proving it can steer this towards becoming a £100m free cash flow machine. The rise of the wealthy 50+ silver pound demographic may be the most potent and persistent force shaping Western economies today. It is more predictable than AI and one heck of a long-term tailwind.
A business in that space growing with solid metrics deserves a premium rating. Yet, its market cap sits at just £400m. For context, the founding family sold Saga in 2004 for more than £2bn in today’s money. That was before private equity got hold of it and bled it dry.

BSD Analysis:
Saga is still a messy balance-sheet story, but its cruise business is quietly performing exceptionally well with strong bookings and resilient pricing. Insurance is stabilizing after years of underperformance. Deleveraging remains the swing factor, but operational momentum is better than the narrative. The equity trades like it’s terminal, which is wildly disconnected from improving fundamentals. If Saga simply avoids big mistakes, the upside is meaningful.

Pitch Summary:
ATOSS Software, a founder-led HR tech company, continues its cloud transformation with recurring revenues reaching 70%. The firm targets 16% software growth and doubling revenue to €400M by 2030. Five AI-powered services are live, with additional agentic AI tools in development. Despite temporary weakness in its legacy license business, Hertford remains confident in long-term compounding potential, reinforced by insider buying.

BSD Analysis:
ATOSS is one of Europe’s highest-quality workforce-management SaaS platforms, with razor-sharp execution, recurring revenue north of 90%, and expanding cloud margins. Demand for labor optimization and compliance automation remains strong even in mixed macro conditions. Pricing power is exceptional, churn is minimal, and international expansion is accelerating. Despite its consistency, ATOSS still trades below global SaaS peers with weaker economics. This remains one of the cleanest mid-cap software compounders in Europe.

Pitch Summary:
LSL has completed its transition from a cyclical estate agency operator to a franchise-based, capital-light business. Its three divisions—Financial Services, Surveying & Valuation, and Estate Agency Franchising—now provide diversified income streams with high cash generation. Management expects margin expansion and valuation re-rating as clean results come through. Hertford added on weakness, expecting 10% free cash flow yields in 2026 and steady buybacks.

BSD Analysis:
LSL is working through a weak U.K. housing backdrop, but the strategic pivot toward financial services and franchising is setting up a more stable, higher-margin business mix. Estate-agency transaction volumes remain soft, yet cost actions and portfolio simplification are improving operational leverage. Financial services distribution provides recurring revenue and more consistent economics. Sentiment remains poor, but the long-term transformation is credible. LSL screens as a cyclical recovery story with meaningful self-help embedded.

Pitch Summary:
Mortgage Advice Bureau (MAB1) provides mortgage and insurance advice across property purchases, remortgages, and protection products, supporting partner firms with technology, compliance, and lead generation. Despite macro uncertainty, the company remains a high-quality market leader with recurring revenue from remortgaging. Management is introducing AI-driven efficiencies to enhance adviser productivity. Shares declined amid temporary UK fiscal uncertainty, which the manager views as an attractive opportunity to add.

BSD Analysis:
MAB remains a structurally advantaged mortgage intermediary, with strong broker relationships, recurring lead flow, and a model that scales efficiently during both boom and bust cycles. The U.K. mortgage market has been brutal, but MAB continues to gain share and improve adviser productivity. As rate cuts arrive, volumes should rebound sharply with high incremental margins. The market still prices MAB like a cyclical lending business when in reality it’s an asset-light distribution platform. With fundamentals stabilizing, the stock is positioned for a solid rerating.

Pitch Summary:
Since we wrote about Howden Joinery (“Howden”) in 2011, its market share of UK kitchen volumes has risen from a fifth to a third - and we don't think it will stop there. Howden's model is robust and self-reinforcing: its dominant scale in the production of kitchens drives cost advantages which are passed on to kitchen installers and end customers through lower prices, which itself drives volumes. This advantage is especially powerful in downturns, where Howden consistently takes share from weak competitors. Howden has taken so much share over the last few years that one can hardly tell that end markets are weak: over the last five years, the volume of kitchens installed in the UK has fallen more than twenty percent, while Howden has increased sales by close to fifty percent. At today’s market capitalisation of GBP 4.5bn and enterprise value of GBP 4.1bn, investors can buy a high-quality business that perpetually takes market share, trading in line with historical valuation at seventeen times enterprise value to run-rate operating profit after tax of circa GBP 240m, despite significant optionality on volume and margin recovery. Howden's competitive edge originates from its cost advantage. At two-and-a-half times the size of its closest competitor, Howden wields significant bargaining power over its suppliers, exchanging guarantees of volumes for lower prices per item. Additionally, Howden has selectively brought around a third of manufacturing in-house, capturing scale-related manufacturing efficiencies and procurement advantages that would otherwise be fragmented if sourcing from several suppliers (e.g. chipboard purchasing). Furthermore, while competitors such as Wren and Magnet operate under a consumer-facing model requiring large showrooms, Howden's offering is geared towards the kitchen installer - stores are small, unimpressive, and often hidden away on industrial estates, keeping overheads low. On top of this, Howden operates a world-class logistics network, capitalising on its greater density of stores to deliver stock faster, with fewer faults, and at a lower cost than competitors. The feather in Howden's cap is not the cost advantage itself, but how it is shared with each part of the value chain to incentivise the sale of Howden kitchens. Howden's store managers are given local P&L ownership and generous profit sharing, and the superior store economics compared to peers results in store managers making more money at Howden than elsewhere - meaning they naturally amass the best talent in the industry. Kitchen installers make more money selling Howden than any other brand: Howden kitchens are priced cheaper than peers for an equivalent product and operate under a confidential pricing model, meaning installers can mark up the sale and capture most of that pricing differential for themselves. Additionally, the in-stock model means that the majority of stock is available immediately or the next day and, combined with market-leading store proximity (nearly ninety percent of UK customers live within five miles of a Howden store), installers are able to turn over projects faster. Finally, the price to the end customer is typically lower than an equivalent kitchen from a competitor, as it is in the installers' interests to pass on enough of the economics to incentivise the end customers to choose Howden. The competition continues to weaken. Competitors such as Magnet and Wren are ceding share to Howden as the trade channel slowly suffocates the consumer-oriented channel. Benchmarx, Travis Perkins' homebrewed answer to Howden, has been closing stores having never achieved sufficient scale to compete effectively. Homebase and B&Q have both closed their trade businesses, and Ikea, though taking share, remains small and competes only within flat-pack. Thirty to forty percent of the market is still made up of specialist independents, and Howden is coming for them too. This industry is a cage fight between a gorilla and a chihuahua - and we know who we're betting on. UK kitchen volumes remain below the trough of the financial crisis in 2010-11, and more than twenty percent below what we consider normalised levels. Consumer confidence is low, pandemic-driven renovation has cooled, and higher interest rates have slowed down housing transactions – the main driver of replacement demand. The sell side models around one percent volume growth in the medium-term. We would be surprised if Howden did not outperform this even in a flat market, given incessant market share gains and maturation of the store base. In a modest recovery scenario, we believe Howden could see three to five percent volume growth annually over the next four years, driving high-single-digit sales growth after accounting for circa two percent price increases and two to three percent store count growth. Any outperformance of volumes will drop through at very attractive margins. Today, Howden's operating margin is around thirteen percent (adjusted for IFRS interest expense) compared to an average of around seventeen percent over 2015-19, and we think in the medium term margins will likely recover to, if not exceed, prior levels. CEO Andrew Livingston’s incentives are well-aligned with shareholders given that he is one, with GBP 4.5m of stock to his name. Our downside is protected by the position in the cycle, the robustness of the business model with sustainable return on capital of around thirty percent (will be higher on normalised volumes), and a healthy net cash position of a little over GBP 300m. There are two main risks to the investment. Firstly, from their current UK store base of around 870 stores, Howden is expected to reach their stated limit of 1000 stores within the next five years. We don’t necessarily believe that this is the ceiling: when we invested in 2011 we were told by management that the upper limit of Howden’s presence in the UK was 650 stores! In the face of competitors closing stores, the latest target could again turn out to be arbitrary. Regardless, our thesis does not rely on this. Stores take seven years or more to reach full maturity, as the store manager and staff build relationships with local installers, and mature stores can reach contribution margins exceeding twenty percent. As a result, when Howden stops opening new stores, it will still continue taking share and growing same-store sales at three to five percent, with expanding margins - we believe terminal operating margins of Howden with a mature estate will be closer to twenty percent than current thirteen percent. On top of this, there are other avenues of growth. The one we are most optimistic for is Howden’s expansion upmarket, representing a significant opportunity to gain share from independents. We see no reason why Howden’s value-for-money advantage would not translate into the higher price ranges. Additionally, Howden is experimenting with fitted bedroom joinery, a category often served by the same installer as kitchen cabinets, representing a straight-forward opportunity to expand wallet share among their existing customers. Secondly, Howden's haphazard international expansion has been relatively unsuccessful and widely viewed as a waste of capital. Fortunately, roll-out has now slowed to a standstill and management are aiming to improve profitability and expand more gradually. Though the economics will never rival those of the UK, we see no reason that the France and Ireland businesses cannot be reasonably attractive enterprises, especially given the ability to utilise the UK manufacturing infrastructure. With the majority of free cash flow being returned to shareholders through a dividend yield of around 3% with buybacks on top, we are comfortable with the capital allocation, though we intend to monitor the GBP 5m per year being spent on international capital expenditure closely and with a high level of scrutiny. With the benefit of hindsight, we closed our initial position in Howden early – had we held it from 2011 until today we would have achieved an enviable annualised return in the high-teens. On a more positive note, we believe our latest purchase has the potential to meet or even exceed this in the medium to long term. In the meantime, should the market show early signs of volume recovery, we expect Howden to be swiftly reappraised given how low we perceive medium-term market expectations to be today.

BSD Analysis:
Howden is a structurally advantaged trade-only retailer with cost leadership, vertical integration, and a dense depot footprint that compounds share gains through cycles. With ~£300m net cash, ~3% dividend yield, and a history of mid-teens ROCE, the balance sheet and returns profile are robust. If UK housing transactions normalize and depots mature, operating margins can migrate from ~13% back toward the 17–20% range, driving double-digit EPS CAGR. Shares around ~17× EV/“run-rate OPAT” aren’t optically cheap, but cash returns and self-help (mix, logistics, upmarket expansion) provide a credible path to rerating. Risks: stalled UK housing turnover, missteps in France/Ireland, and a slower-for-longer consumer.

Pitch Summary:
RLGT is an underfollowed non-asset based third-party (3PL) multinational logistics company at just 7x trailing and 5x normalized EBITDA, which is a low absolute multiple and a significant discount to larger peers. The company was founded in 2005 by CEO Bohn Crain, who grew it through a series of acquisitions and who still holds a 22% stake. RLGT provides transportation and value-added services to customers needing to make large shipments. It does so by operating an agency network in the US and Canada, which includes ~30 company-owned and ~70 independent agent (strategic partners) locations that operate exclusively on its behalf. These agencies arrange the shipment of products, materials or equipment when they are larger than those handled by integrated global carriers like FedEx or UPS. As a 3PL, RLGT relies on its vast network of asset-heavy carrier partners, including truck operators, railroads, airlines and ocean lines. As a complement to its transportation offerings, RLGT provides customers with other value-added services including materials management and distribution, customs brokerage and global trade management services. This model shields the company from the large fixed-cost and utilization risk faced by traditional carriers during cyclical downturns, providing significant flexibility and allowing it to adapt quickly to volume shifts while avoiding the heavy capital expenditure associated with asset ownership. Capital allocation is a core differentiator for RLGT. The company acquires agencies (from within its own network) and other greenfield operations at mid-single-digit EBITDA multiples. From 2006 to today, revenues grew 35 times to over $900 million, while the share count rose only ~40% and the balance sheet remained pristine, being net cash as of its most recent quarter and fiscal-year end. Currently, we are three years into a steep freight recession. RLGT has capitalized on this slowdown by accelerating its pace of acquisitions while reducing its share count. The current pipeline remains robust and management is actively pursuing additional acquisition opportunities, positioning the company to emerge significantly larger and stronger when volumes recover.

BSD Analysis:
Radiant Logistics’ non-asset-based 3PL model offers durable earnings power and acquisition-driven compounding at a deeply discounted valuation. Trading near 5x normalized EBITDA, RLGT’s balance sheet strength (net cash) and disciplined capital allocation provide substantial upside leverage to a cyclical freight recovery. The fund sees the freight recession as a temporary headwind, enabling Radiant to buy agencies cheaply and expand market share. With 35x revenue growth since inception and CEO Bohn Crain’s 22% ownership aligning incentives, RLGT appears positioned for multiple expansion once margins normalize. Catalysts include a cyclical volume rebound, consolidation, and potential strategic interest from larger logistics players.

Pitch Summary:
Summary: Eiffage is a diversified French infrastructure and engineering group whose shares trade at a deep discount due to political overhang and market misunderstanding of its concession asset value. The company combines stable, cash-generative concessions (APRR toll roads, Getlink stake, and various French transport assets) with high-quality infrastructure and energy engineering businesses that benefit from European grid modernization and German fiscal stimulus. Despite strong balance sheet discipline, 21% employee ownership, and a track record of rational capital allocation, the market values the concessions at an implied ~60% IRR, far below what would be expected for long-duration, inflation-linked cash flows. Near-term windfall taxes have depressed sentiment, but their financial impact is modest relative to the asset base. Management continues to increase dividends and maintain conservative underwriting, reinforcing the credibility of long-term reinvestment economics. With engineering valued at only ~10× FCF and concessions at distressed levels, shares offer ~50% upside as political noise fades and cash generation becomes more visible.

BSD Analysis:
Eiffage’s valuation disconnect stems primarily from broad-based derating of French domestic infrastructure assets due to political volatility rather than asset-specific fundamentals. The APRR toll road franchise, a uniquely inflation-linked asset with predictable traffic trends and regulated fee escalators, is being priced as though concession renewal risk or punitive taxation will eradicate the equity value—yet historical precedent shows the French government extends concessions in exchange for incremental capex rather than expropriation. Meanwhile, the company’s engineering and energy services platforms provide countercyclical stability and structural growth tied to Europe’s multi-decade infrastructure and grid investment cycle. Management’s demonstrated capital discipline, long-tenured operational expertise, and employee ownership further mitigate reinvestment concerns. Over the next 12–24 months, rising dividends, continued deleveraging, and clarity around APRR’s post-2035 trajectory should reduce the political risk premium embedded in the current share price.