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Pitch Summary:
KGHM Polska Miedz is the only notable copper and silver producer in Europe, hence its strategic importance to the development of digital infrastructure in an era of deglobalization. KGHM is the second-largest silver producer after Fresnillo (Mexico). There has been a structural deficit in silver production for years.
BSD Analysis:
KGHM, the Polish copper giant, began 2026 with a 2.7% increase in copper output, reaching 60,500 tonn...
Pitch Summary:
KGHM Polska Miedz is the only notable copper and silver producer in Europe, hence its strategic importance to the development of digital infrastructure in an era of deglobalization. KGHM is the second-largest silver producer after Fresnillo (Mexico). There has been a structural deficit in silver production for years.
BSD Analysis:
KGHM, the Polish copper giant, began 2026 with a 2.7% increase in copper output, reaching 60,500 tonnes in January alone. While production is scaling, the company faced a slight 2.5% decrease in actual sales volume for the same period, highlighting a temporary mismatch between supply and global logistics. Analyst recommendations remain mixed, with 7 buy ratings and 5 sell ratings, reflecting a broader debate over the company’s cost structure and the volatility of the copper market. Management is prioritizing the development of its deep-level mining assets and international projects to secure a long-term supply of critical metals for the energy transition. For investors, KGHM offers a direct, high-leverage play on global copper prices, though operational efficiency in its legacy Polish mines remains a critical metric to watch.
Pitch Summary:
Hims & Hers is an American telemedicine start-up that facilitates discreet online access to gender-specific and (frequently also) prescription-only medication for sensitive health problems such as impotence, skin rashes and excess weight. These are health problems where customers value discretion, and they often lead to recurring sales through the provision of a regular supply. With a takeover, the company now wants to expand inter...
Pitch Summary:
Hims & Hers is an American telemedicine start-up that facilitates discreet online access to gender-specific and (frequently also) prescription-only medication for sensitive health problems such as impotence, skin rashes and excess weight. These are health problems where customers value discretion, and they often lead to recurring sales through the provision of a regular supply. With a takeover, the company now wants to expand internationally and should benefit from rising user numbers and higher profitability in the long term.
BSD Analysis:
Hims & Hers reported an impressive 28.4% revenue surge in late 2025, reaching $617.8 million and topping GAAP earnings estimates with $0.08 per share. However, the 2026 outlook has set a cautious tone, with management forecasting first-quarter revenue slightly below consensus, leading to a temporary plunge in the share price. Despite this "soft" outlook, the company expects full-year 2026 sales to reach between $2.7 billion and $2.9 billion, a range that exceeds initial analyst expectations. Investors remain hyper-focused on the growth of the weight-loss segment and the impact of regulatory scrutiny on compounded GLP-1 products. The planned acquisition of Eucalyptus in mid-2026 is expected to act as a significant growth catalyst that is not yet fully reflected in current projections.
Pitch Summary:
Halliburton will be a beneficiary of the planned increase in US oil and gas production. The Trump administration wants to become mostly self-sufficient in fossil energy sources and has removed the regulatory obstacles in this respect.
BSD Analysis:
Halliburton is currently the subject of a major valuation debate in 2026, with its share price of $35.24 sitting between conflicting signals of a 11% overvaluation and a 54% DCF-implied...
Pitch Summary:
Halliburton will be a beneficiary of the planned increase in US oil and gas production. The Trump administration wants to become mostly self-sufficient in fossil energy sources and has removed the regulatory obstacles in this respect.
BSD Analysis:
Halliburton is currently the subject of a major valuation debate in 2026, with its share price of $35.24 sitting between conflicting signals of a 11% overvaluation and a 54% DCF-implied discount. The stock has shown strong momentum, with a 35% total shareholder return over the past year, as oilfield activity remains robust despite a shifting energy landscape. Bullish narratives point to firmer margins and aggressive buybacks, while more cautious views emphasize the risks associated with the energy transition and cyclical commodity cycles. Management’s ability to maintain high earnings multiples through service efficiency and digital optimization remains the central pillar of the investment case. For investors, the key question is whether to trust the cash flow durability suggested by DCF models or the conservative multiples currently favored by Street research.
Pitch Summary:
After a multi-year pause, we once again invested in Zalando in September 2025, as the company has continued to expand its position as the leading European online platform for fashion and lifestyle. In recent years, Zalando has successfully expanded its business model beyond classic direct sales to end customers (B2C) and also opened it up as a platform for other retailers. Also, the recent takeover of About You strengthens the comp...
Pitch Summary:
After a multi-year pause, we once again invested in Zalando in September 2025, as the company has continued to expand its position as the leading European online platform for fashion and lifestyle. In recent years, Zalando has successfully expanded its business model beyond classic direct sales to end customers (B2C) and also opened it up as a platform for other retailers. Also, the recent takeover of About You strengthens the company's market position in Europe and creates synergies that are likely to improve margins in the long term. We consider the most recent drop in the share price as an attractive entry opportunity.
BSD Analysis:
Zalando enters 2026 as a leaner and more efficient e-commerce leader, following a successful period of inventory optimization and margin-focused restructuring. The company is successfully leveraging its "ecosystem" strategy to move beyond traditional retail, expanding its logistics-as-a-service offerings to other European brands. Management is prioritizing high-engagement categories and its lounge-style flash sales to maintain customer loyalty in a fluctuating discretionary spending environment. While the stock has faced pressure from a competitive landscape, Zalando’s dominant position in the European fashion market and its robust digital infrastructure provide a durable competitive moat. Investors are focused on the company’s ability to drive consistent double-digit EBIT margins as it transitions into a more service-oriented and profitable platform.
Pitch Summary:
Celestica is an electronic technology company that assumes tasks ranging from product development, prototyping and manufacturing (assembly, testing and integration) to logistics, returns and repairs as well as after-sales services on behalf of original equipment manufacturers. To this end, the company services growing industries in high-value segments such as cloud and AI infrastructure, smart energy, communication solutions, healt...
Pitch Summary:
Celestica is an electronic technology company that assumes tasks ranging from product development, prototyping and manufacturing (assembly, testing and integration) to logistics, returns and repairs as well as after-sales services on behalf of original equipment manufacturers. To this end, the company services growing industries in high-value segments such as cloud and AI infrastructure, smart energy, communication solutions, health and defense technology. Celestica has the potential to become more deeply involved in the development cycle of its clients, to strengthen customer loyalty and to become an increasingly important supplier for the infrastructure of digital trends.
BSD Analysis:
Celestica is currently navigating a period of technical consolidation in 2026, with the stock recently breaking through the floor of its long-term rising trend channel. This shift suggests a move toward a more horizontal development, as the stock trades between a support level of $250 and resistance at $343. Despite the slower rate of price increase, the firm remains a critical beneficiary of the ongoing shift toward advanced electronics manufacturing for AI data centers and communication infrastructure. Technical indicators like the RSI suggest some near-term bearish momentum, potentially offering an entry point for value investors as the firm's fundamental data remains healthy. With over 25 years of experience and a strong model portfolio performance, Celestica continues to be a high-interest name for those tracking the industrial technology and hardware sectors.
Pitch Summary:
Last year, Synopsis announced the takeover of its smaller competitor Ansys and offered Ansys shareholders one partial payment in shares and one partial payment in cash. We used an arbitrage opportunity to purchase Ansys shares. After the successful takeover a few weeks ago, we received a portion of the purchase price in Synopsis shares, which were sold.
BSD Analysis:
Synopsys is entering a high-growth phase in 2026 as the $35 bill...
Pitch Summary:
Last year, Synopsis announced the takeover of its smaller competitor Ansys and offered Ansys shareholders one partial payment in shares and one partial payment in cash. We used an arbitrage opportunity to purchase Ansys shares. After the successful takeover a few weeks ago, we received a portion of the purchase price in Synopsis shares, which were sold.
BSD Analysis:
Synopsys is entering a high-growth phase in 2026 as the $35 billion acquisition of Ansys begins to fundamentally transform its operational scale and technological reach. Revenue is projected to accelerate sharply to approximately $9.5 billion this year, a 37% increase driven by the newly formed Simulation & Analysis division and robust demand for AI-enhanced design tools. The transition from a traditional EDA provider to a comprehensive silicon-to-systems leader allows the firm to capture a larger share of the automotive, aerospace, and industrial sectors. While the integration of Ansys initially pressured net income, a 45% rebound is expected by the end of the fiscal year as synergies are realized.Despite persistent geopolitical risks, Synopsys remains a premier "picks and shovels" play for the semiconductor industry,benefiting from the non-discretionary nature of advanced chip design software.
Pitch Summary:
The company continues to face challenges in the form of geopolitical uncertainties (e.g. higher US tariffs) as well as overall weaker global demand, particularly in China and South Korea. As a result, it was forced to lower its profit forecasts. We sold the stock to reduce the share of medical technology companies in our strictly sustainable equity fund.
BSD Analysis:
Hologic opened fiscal 2026 with a measured performance, reporti...
Pitch Summary:
The company continues to face challenges in the form of geopolitical uncertainties (e.g. higher US tariffs) as well as overall weaker global demand, particularly in China and South Korea. As a result, it was forced to lower its profit forecasts. We sold the stock to reduce the share of medical technology companies in our strictly sustainable equity fund.
BSD Analysis:
Hologic opened fiscal 2026 with a measured performance, reporting first-quarter revenue of $1.02 billion and a basic EPS of $0.80. While the company maintains a solid net margin of approximately 13.2%, recent quarters have been characterized by significant one-off losses, including a $346.8 million drag that has weighed on overall earnings quality.Despite these fluctuations, the core business remains profitable, and forward-looking estimates point to an earnings growth trajectory of roughly 13.7% per year as the firm navigates a post-pandemic reset. Management is focused on stabilizing margins and proving that recent profit volatility is a transitory feature rather than a structural headwind. With a consistent ability to generate revenue above $1 billion per quarter, Hologic offers a defensive healthcare play with a clear path toward earnings normalization in a stabilizing diagnostic market.
Pitch Summary:
Most of the large global stock exchanges do not make their money with share trading but with the sale of data. But does the world still need expensive data in the era of artificial intelligence? Because of this concern, several stock exchanges, including Intercontinental Exchange, were negative in September.
BSD Analysis:
ICE is financial market plumbing embedded in trading, clearing, and mortgage infrastructure. Exchanges look cy...
Pitch Summary:
Most of the large global stock exchanges do not make their money with share trading but with the sale of data. But does the world still need expensive data in the era of artificial intelligence? Because of this concern, several stock exchanges, including Intercontinental Exchange, were negative in September.
BSD Analysis:
ICE is financial market plumbing embedded in trading, clearing, and mortgage infrastructure. Exchanges look cyclical, but clearing and data revenue provide durability beyond volume swings. Investors fixate on transaction volatility and miss subscription-like analytics and index businesses. Pricing power exists because switching venues is operationally complex. Mortgage tech adds long-duration optionality. Capital-light economics amplify free cash flow. This is financial infrastructure monetizing volatility rather than fearing it.
Pitch Summary:
We believe that Krones is one of the gems of the German mid-size sector. The company is the market leader for beverage filling machines on all continents, and it has seen virtually continuous growth. We are not concerned about the latest price developments. Our view is confirmed by a management contact in September.
BSD Analysis:
Krones sells bottling and packaging systems where downtime is unacceptable and replacement cycles are ...
Pitch Summary:
We believe that Krones is one of the gems of the German mid-size sector. The company is the market leader for beverage filling machines on all continents, and it has seen virtually continuous growth. We are not concerned about the latest price developments. Our view is confirmed by a management contact in September.
BSD Analysis:
Krones sells bottling and packaging systems where downtime is unacceptable and replacement cycles are long. Beverage and consumer goods producers depend on reliability, not lowest bid pricing. Investors treat Krones as generic machinery and miss aftermarket and service ballast. Efficiency upgrades and sustainability requirements drive incremental demand. Scale and engineering depth create barriers. Margins improve with mix and operational discipline. This is industrial infrastructure paid to keep production lines moving.
Pitch Summary:
TSMC continues to benefit from the boom in AI. Analysts raised the 2026 profit forecasts by 8-9% and increased revenue forecasts for 2025 from +20% to +30%, as TSMC will maintain its technological leadership role and pricing power in the AI supply chain. TSMC's capacities for 3nm/5nm chips (58% of wafer sales) were nearly exhausted, which justified the 10-20% price increases for 2nm processes (compared to 3nm).
BSD Analysis:
TSMC ...
Pitch Summary:
TSMC continues to benefit from the boom in AI. Analysts raised the 2026 profit forecasts by 8-9% and increased revenue forecasts for 2025 from +20% to +30%, as TSMC will maintain its technological leadership role and pricing power in the AI supply chain. TSMC's capacities for 3nm/5nm chips (58% of wafer sales) were nearly exhausted, which justified the 10-20% price increases for 2nm processes (compared to 3nm).
BSD Analysis:
TSMC is the single most important manufacturing bottleneck in modern technology. Every serious AI and advanced-node roadmap runs through its fabs. Capital intensity is brutal, which is precisely why the moat holds. Investors fixate on geopolitics and miss that indispensability cuts both ways. Yield, scale, and execution discipline remain unmatched at the leading edge. Cycles hit margins, not relevance. This is monopoly-like manufacturing hiding behind a foundry label.
Pitch Summary:
On the 18th of September, Rieter announced details of the capital increase approved by the Board to acquire Barmag, Oerlikon's artificial textile fibre machinery division. The Board approved a capital reduction with a reduction in the nominal value of the 4.7 million existing shares, which went from a nominal value of CHF 5.0 per share to CHF 0.01. Subsequently, a capital increase in two tranches was approved with the issue of 116....
Pitch Summary:
On the 18th of September, Rieter announced details of the capital increase approved by the Board to acquire Barmag, Oerlikon's artificial textile fibre machinery division. The Board approved a capital reduction with a reduction in the nominal value of the 4.7 million existing shares, which went from a nominal value of CHF 5.0 per share to CHF 0.01. Subsequently, a capital increase in two tranches was approved with the issue of 116.8 million new shares at a price of CHF 3.43 in tranche A and the issue of 14.6 million shares at a price of CHF 5.31 in tranche B. The main shareholders, Peter Spuhler and Martin Häfner, owners of 33% and 10% respectively, subscribed their share in the two tranches of the increase. The increase enabled Rieter to raise CHF 477 million, which will be used to pay for the acquisition of Barmag. As can be deduced from the structure of the transaction, this capital increase was extremely dilutive for shareholders who did not participate in the increase and very attractive for those who did. Equam exercised its pre-emptive subscription rights in tranche A of the increase and purchased shares at CHF 3.43. At the same time, it sold the shares it held in its portfolio, which were trading at CHF 6.52, making a small arbitrage on the price. Rieter currently has a market capitalisation of 464 million, representing an EBITDA multiple of 3.9x normalised EBITDA for Rieter + Barmag. The company's leverage, considering the debt of both companies and the UBS loan for the acquisition of Barmag, is 3x current EBITDA and 2.1x normalised EBITDA.
BSD Analysis:
Rieter sells textile machinery into a brutally cyclical industry, which keeps valuation perpetually depressed. Yet modernization cycles eventually force capex regardless of sentiment. Investors anchor to order volatility and miss aftermarket and service ballast. Emerging market textile demand remains structurally relevant. Cost control is the gating variable for equity returns. When orders inflect, operating leverage is sharp. This is industrial cyclicality with torque, not steady compounding.
Pitch Summary:
During the quarter, we began investing in Domino's Pizza, the British company that operates the brand in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Domino's does not manage restaurants directly, as it acts as a master franchisee. Its revenue comes from the sale of raw materials to franchisees and the collection of royalties for the use of the brand, so its asset structure is very light and its operating risk relatively low. Domino's has the l...
Pitch Summary:
During the quarter, we began investing in Domino's Pizza, the British company that operates the brand in the United Kingdom and Ireland. Domino's does not manage restaurants directly, as it acts as a master franchisee. Its revenue comes from the sale of raw materials to franchisees and the collection of royalties for the use of the brand, so its asset structure is very light and its operating risk relatively low. Domino's has the largest number of franchised pizzerias in the United Kingdom, a total of 1,378, which, compared to the 381 of its nearest competitors, shows its high market share. It plans to open around 600 new franchises in towns with fewer than 10,000 citizens, where its franchisees achieve higher average sales than restaurants in large cities. It is also considering launching a new brand, drawing on its powerful network of franchisees. We have begun investing in Domino's, taking advantage of the weakness of its share price, which has fallen 43% so far this year. Although employment remains stable and retail sales are steady, consumer confidence in the United Kingdom is very low. The possible tax increase in the Labour government's next budget, which comes on top of previous increases, has led many consumers to reduce their spending. In this context, sales volume has fallen slightly, but Domino's has continued to increase its market share in the pizza delivery segment (+5.6 pp to 53.7% share). First-half results reflected weak consumption, with like-for-like sales falling 0.1% and EBITDA falling 7.4%, much less than the decline in the share price. The company has ex-IFRS16 debt of 2.3x and offers an equity free cash flow yield of 9%.
BSD Analysis:
Domino’s UK is delivery infrastructure built on convenience, not culinary awards. Brand strength and digital ordering create repeat behavior that smaller chains can’t match. Investors fixate on cost pressures and miss pricing power embedded in loyalty. Franchise economics distribute risk while protecting returns. Store density supports marketing leverage and logistics efficiency. Volume volatility fades faster than sentiment suggests. This is food delivery as a system, not a fad.
Pitch Summary:
Global medical technology manufacturer of devices used in interventional procedures across cardiology, endoscopy, neuromodulation, and urology markets. Thesis: Innovative portfolio in high growth categories drives durable double digit organic revenue growth. Disciplined expense management and smart capital deployment lead to mid-teens EPS growth. Strong pipeline across multiple disease categories offers LT optionality. Q2 Results: ...
Pitch Summary:
Global medical technology manufacturer of devices used in interventional procedures across cardiology, endoscopy, neuromodulation, and urology markets. Thesis: Innovative portfolio in high growth categories drives durable double digit organic revenue growth. Disciplined expense management and smart capital deployment lead to mid-teens EPS growth. Strong pipeline across multiple disease categories offers LT optionality. Q2 Results: Revenue +23% (+17% organic) and EPS +21%. Raised FY25 guidance on strength in WATCHMAN (AFib implant device), EP, and endoscopy. What Happened: Shares advanced +4% post-earnings on accelerating momentum in key segments. Leading into 9/30 investor day, shares declined ~10% on growth and competition concerns. Edgewood's View: We believe the selloff was unwarranted and took advantage to continue building our position. Resulting Action: Edgewood added 100bps during the quarter; 9/30 investor day confirmed double digit + organic revenue growth and margin expansion over the next 3 years.
BSD Analysis:
Boston Scientific is entering 2026 with exceptional momentum, projecting 10% to 11% organic revenue growth and a targeted adjusted EPS of up to $3.49. The company’s cardiovascular segment, a $50 billion addressable market, remains its primary engine of growth, with electrophysiology sales expected to outpace the market at 15% through its "Watchman" and "Acurate" franchises. Despite a 150-basis-point headwind from recent product discontinuations, management anticipates margin expansion of up to 75 basis points as higher-margin innovations like the OPAL mapping system gain traction globally. Clinical data expected in the second half of 2026 for the "Simplify" trial could serve as a major catalyst for its structural heart business. With shares consistently outperforming the broader medtech industry, Boston Scientific offers a high-conviction combination of organic growth and operational discipline.
Pitch Summary:
Global leader in robotic-assisted surgical systems, instruments and accessories with its da Vinci and Ion endoluminal platforms. Thesis: ISRG benefits from a large installed base, expanding recurring revenue from instruments, accessories and service, and the growing secular adoption of robotics in surgical applications. Q2 Results: Revenue +21% and EPS +23%. Procedure volumes +17%; raised FY25 GM guidance. Total placements of 395 u...
Pitch Summary:
Global leader in robotic-assisted surgical systems, instruments and accessories with its da Vinci and Ion endoluminal platforms. Thesis: ISRG benefits from a large installed base, expanding recurring revenue from instruments, accessories and service, and the growing secular adoption of robotics in surgical applications. Q2 Results: Revenue +21% and EPS +23%. Procedure volumes +17%; raised FY25 GM guidance. Total placements of 395 units missed consensus by one. What Happened: Stock traded down 2% post-earnings and throughout the quarter alongside the broader Healthcare/MedTech market. Edgewood's View: We viewed the broader MedTech selloff as unwarranted. Following diligence in several areas, we felt confident in ISRG’s competitive moat and long-term addressable market opportunity. We believe ISRG can compound revenue in the high teens and EPS 20+%. Resulting Action: Edgewood added 100bps to its position in September.
BSD Analysis:
Intuitive Surgical has effectively transitioned into 2026 as a global diversified leader in robotic-assisted surgery, with international procedure volumes now outpacing domestic U.S. growth. The company reported a significant 35% surge in international procedures in late 2025, particularly in Europe and Asia, which is helping to de-risk its revenue profile from domestic regulatory shifts. Management expects 2026 organic sales growth to settle between 6.5% and 7.5%, driven by the continued rollout of the Da Vinci 5 platform and its expansion into diagnostic lung procedures with the Ion system. While the stock trades at a premium forward P/E of approximately 49, this valuation remains below its five-year median, reflecting a more mature but highly profitable business model. With a 12.3% projected rise in annual earnings, Intuitive remains the gold standard in medtech, benefiting from a high percentage of recurring revenue through instruments and accessories.
Pitch Summary:
Leading provider of semiconductor design automation software and IP, enabling chip design, verification, and secure software development across AI, automotive, and hyperscaler markets. Thesis: Mission-critical supplier to the semiconductor and AI ecosystem, with durable double-digit revenue growth driven by rising chip complexity and AI workloads. FYQ3 Results: Revenue +14% ($1.6B) and EPS of $3.39 missed management's guidance. Bac...
Pitch Summary:
Leading provider of semiconductor design automation software and IP, enabling chip design, verification, and secure software development across AI, automotive, and hyperscaler markets. Thesis: Mission-critical supplier to the semiconductor and AI ecosystem, with durable double-digit revenue growth driven by rising chip complexity and AI workloads. FYQ3 Results: Revenue +14% ($1.6B) and EPS of $3.39 missed management's guidance. Backlog increased to $8.1B. Management guided F4Q25 EPS below expectations. What Happened: Stock fell 36% after reporting earnings due to weakness in the Design IP segment, BIS export restrictions disrupting China design activity, and challenges at a foundry customer. Edgewood's View: We believe the selloff was overdone and IP issue is narrower than investors fear. Management has taken steps to address, and we believe the IP segment can return to mid-teens growth in FY27, following a transition year in FY26. Resulting Action: Met with management immediately following earnings disappointment. Clarified ambiguous guidance and added 170bps to our position.
BSD Analysis:
Synopsys is entering 2026 with high-visibility growth, recently guiding for full-year adjusted EPS between $14.32 and $14.40, supported by the accelerating complexity of AI-driven chip design. The company is set to report Q1 FY2026 earnings on February 25, with expectations for design automation revenue to surge over 70% year-over-year as semiconductor giants transition to advanced 2nm and 3nm nodes. Despite a high P/E ratio, the firm’s deep integration into the global EDA (Electronic Design Automation) market provides a resilient moat, as its AI-powered design tools significantly reduce time-to-market for hyperscale and automotive customers. Strategic expansion into advanced simulation and the recovery of its non-IP segments in China are anticipated to act as primary tailwinds throughout the fiscal year. While shareholders faced minor dilution in the previous year, the company’s 81.4% gross margin and 18.9% net profit margin underscore its status as a premier "picks and shovels" play for the semiconductor sector.
Pitch Summary:
Leading producer (~90% market share) of photolithography machines used in semiconductor manufacturing. ASML's machines enable chips to become smaller and more power efficient every year. Thesis: Secular tailwinds (AI, robotics, cloud, electrification) will continue to drive demand for chips. ASML's EUV & High NA EUV machines continue to be essential equipment and will drive double digit revenue & earnings growth. Q2 Results: Revenu...
Pitch Summary:
Leading producer (~90% market share) of photolithography machines used in semiconductor manufacturing. ASML's machines enable chips to become smaller and more power efficient every year. Thesis: Secular tailwinds (AI, robotics, cloud, electrification) will continue to drive demand for chips. ASML's EUV & High NA EUV machines continue to be essential equipment and will drive double digit revenue & earnings growth. Q2 Results: Revenue +41% (€7.7B), and EPS +47%. Reiterated FY2025 revenue & EPS guidance. What happened: Stock declined on 2026 revenue growth uncertainty. Edgewood's View: The negative stock reaction had nothing to do with ASML's competitive moat or the size of the market opportunity, rather it was a timing issue related to tariff uncertainty. Over a multi-year period we feel that ASML will compound revenue & earnings at a high teens rate. Resulting Action: Spoke with management. Did additional due diligence on ASML's technology moat. We added 50bps in late July.
BSD Analysis:
ASML owns the most critical choke point in advanced semiconductor manufacturing. EUV lithography is not optional at the frontier — and no one else can deliver it at scale. Backlogs are long because customers have no substitute. Cyclicality shows up in timing, not relevance. Gross margins reflect monopoly-level positioning in a brutally complex niche. Geopolitical export controls create noise but reinforce strategic importance. Capital intensity is extreme, yet returns justify it. This is not a typical equipment stock. It’s the gatekeeper to next-generation compute.
Pitch Summary:
Global pharmaceutical company with a leading position in diabetes/obesity and a rich pipeline of follow-on medicines addressing several therapeutic categories. Thesis: Lilly is a leader in diabetes and obesity markets which represent large global patient populations and today remain largely underserved. Excellent management team with a long-term focus on deploying capital towards R&D/serial innovation in therapeutic categories with...
Pitch Summary:
Global pharmaceutical company with a leading position in diabetes/obesity and a rich pipeline of follow-on medicines addressing several therapeutic categories. Thesis: Lilly is a leader in diabetes and obesity markets which represent large global patient populations and today remain largely underserved. Excellent management team with a long-term focus on deploying capital towards R&D/serial innovation in therapeutic categories with large unmet needs. Q2 Results: Revenue +38% and EPS +61%. Raised FY 2025 revenue and EPS guidance. What Happened: Stock declined on results from P3 ATTAIN-1 trial – orforglipron (Lilly’s oral GLP-1 molecule) delivered 12.4% weight loss at the highest dose – expectations were 13-15% weight loss. Edgewood’s View: The market was too narrowly focused on one metric from one trial, demographics impacted results and the totality of data from 5 clinical trials would support approval. After a ~15% price decline, Lilly traded at ~20x 2026 EPS for a company that we believe can compound EPS >20% over the next 5 years. Resulting Action: After research meeting with senior management at LLY HQ, Edgewood added 100bps to our position in August.
BSD Analysis:
Eli Lilly is in the middle of a structural earnings reset driven by obesity and diabetes therapies. GLP-1 demand exceeds supply, which is the best kind of problem to have. Pricing power is significant despite political noise. The pipeline behind today’s blockbusters looks credible, not promotional. Manufacturing expansion is aggressive but necessary. Margins expand as scale catches up to demand. Execution now matters more than hype. This is not defensive pharma. It’s growth pharma with rare visibility.
Pitch Summary:
Leading provider of consumer credit analytics and scoring algorithms that is best known for the “FICO Score”—a three-digit metric used in a variety of consumer credit decisions. Thesis: FICO is the industry standard, used in 90%+ of consumer credit decisions across the US. There is an opportunity to proliferate scores beyond originations and close the Scores’ price to value gap, specifically in mortgage and auto. FYQ3 Results: Reve...
Pitch Summary:
Leading provider of consumer credit analytics and scoring algorithms that is best known for the “FICO Score”—a three-digit metric used in a variety of consumer credit decisions. Thesis: FICO is the industry standard, used in 90%+ of consumer credit decisions across the US. There is an opportunity to proliferate scores beyond originations and close the Scores’ price to value gap, specifically in mortgage and auto. FYQ3 Results: Revenue +20% and EPS +47%. Raised full year EPS. What Happened: Stock declined after FHFA Director Bill Pulte posted on X that government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) could use an alternate score, creating headline risk around FICO’s mortgage score moat and 2026 pricing. Edgewood’s View: The market overestimated share-loss and pricing risk; we viewed management as having flexibility in how they wanted to approach Scores monetization and felt confident in the 20%+ multi-year EPS growth algorithm. Resulting Action: Added to the position throughout the quarter (250bps in total), with additions in the post Q3 earnings sell-off after numerous meetings with senior FICO management.
BSD Analysis:
FICO is the quiet monopoly behind consumer credit decisions in the United States. Lenders may complain about pricing, but they still pay. Switching costs are enormous because underwriting standards are embedded systemwide. Pricing power has been aggressive — and largely accepted. Growth is steady because credit markets don’t reinvent themselves overnight. Margins are elite because data scales cheaply. Regulatory scrutiny is a constant background hum. This is not fintech disruption bait. It’s scoring infrastructure with monopoly economics and unapologetic pricing discipline.
Pitch Summary:
Bank of Montreal delivered gains supported by steady loan growth, cost control, and strong wealth management contributions.
BSD Analysis:
Bank of Montreal enters 2026 with a constructive setup, as anticipated interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) are expected to spur North American loan demand. The bank's Global Equity team remains bullish on the financial sector, noting that international...
Pitch Summary:
Bank of Montreal delivered gains supported by steady loan growth, cost control, and strong wealth management contributions.
BSD Analysis:
Bank of Montreal enters 2026 with a constructive setup, as anticipated interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBB) are expected to spur North American loan demand. The bank's Global Equity team remains bullish on the financial sector, noting that international institutions have led the recent recovery in valuations. BMO is well-positioned to benefit from a robust tax refund season and improving macroeconomic conditions in emerging markets, which support its global volume growth. While domestic valuations for large-cap banks appear full, BMO's diversified portfolio and exposure to regional M&A activity provide incremental multiple expansion opportunities. With an undemanding valuation and a focus on disciplined risk management, the bank remains an attractive defensive play for the second half of the decade.
Pitch Summary:
This is a company we began buying into during the worst moments of Covid, and in which we have more than tripled our capital. A story of blood, sweat and the occasional tear, but one which, as often happens when rigorous analysis and a great deal of patience are combined, has ended up being a source of great joy for the fund. Heidelberg Materials: When success means being right in the end. In the markets, narratives matter. A lot. ...
Pitch Summary:
This is a company we began buying into during the worst moments of Covid, and in which we have more than tripled our capital. A story of blood, sweat and the occasional tear, but one which, as often happens when rigorous analysis and a great deal of patience are combined, has ended up being a source of great joy for the fund. Heidelberg Materials: When success means being right in the end. In the markets, narratives matter. A lot. The stories that are built around a company have a direct impact on its valuations. Sometimes they reflect reality. Other times, they distort it. And it is precisely in those moments of dissonance between narrative and fundamentals (between price and value) that the best opportunities arise for BESTINVER. The investment thesis for Heidelberg Materials was developed at a time when the cement sector was a clear example of this dissonance. Forgotten by the market after a decade of digesting excesses and bubbles, first with the financial crisis, then the sovereign debt crisis, the sector showed signs of structural improvement at the end of the previous decade that went largely unnoticed by investors. Installed capacity in Europe had not grown for years, and the sector had consolidated with the merger of Holcim and Lafarge (2015) and Heidelberg's own acquisition of Italcementi (2016). Furthermore, emissions regulations, the core of our thesis, were beginning to change. The result? A renewed power to set prices in the industry that had gone completely unnoticed by the market. At BESTINVER, we like to buy sectors at the bottom of the cycle. With the arrival of Covid, we had the opportunity to invest in a structurally neglected sector that was then also cyclically depressed due to the pandemic. This is how we became shareholders in this German cement company. The company was trading at historically low multiples, with double-digit free cash flow returns and an aggregates division that, on its own, justified much of its valuation. Furthermore, unlike in the previous decade, Heidelberg had a healthy balance sheet, balanced geographical exposure (the US and Europe) and a clear decarbonisation strategy that positioned it as one of the winners in the new cycle.
BSD Analysis:
Heidelberg Materials is a global cement and aggregates leader with a portfolio increasingly skewed toward developed markets and infrastructure spending. Pricing discipline across the industry has improved materially, allowing margins to hold even as volumes fluctuate. Decarbonization initiatives and alternative fuels are becoming competitive advantages rather than just compliance costs. The company generates strong cash flow due to its irreplaceable asset base and local market dominance. Infrastructure and reshoring trends support long-term demand visibility. Capital allocation has become more shareholder-friendly. This is a heavy industrial that now behaves more like a disciplined infrastructure compounder.