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Pitch Summary:
Also subsequent to the quarter, QRHC reported meaningful cash flow generation for the first time in two years. As I wrote in my July email, I would love to put the proceeds from CCRD into QRHC, a long-time position that has more than halved (twice) since September, but I am hesitant until I see the effect of recent managerial changes on operations. Cash flow generation is one of those small but important indicators. We have been se...
Pitch Summary:
Also subsequent to the quarter, QRHC reported meaningful cash flow generation for the first time in two years. As I wrote in my July email, I would love to put the proceeds from CCRD into QRHC, a long-time position that has more than halved (twice) since September, but I am hesitant until I see the effect of recent managerial changes on operations. Cash flow generation is one of those small but important indicators. We have been selectively adding. However, I continue to think the Board is missing an opportunity to improve as well. ... The good news is, this source told me that the changes the company has recently made should yield improvements in 12-to-18 months again, everything he's told me has proved accurate - offering a sense of hope that our new CEO and his cohort can succeed even as our Board underwhelms.
BSD Analysis:
Quest is an environmental services and waste-management consolidator focused on recycling and sustainability programs for national accounts. It benefits from corporations outsourcing waste compliance and ESG-driven reporting. The model scales through multi-site clients who value standardization over local haulers. Margin improvement is all about routing efficiency and contract discipline. Acquisitions add growth but require integration rigor. As sustainability mandates increase, Quest’s value proposition strengthens. This is a small-cap infrastructure efficiency story with steady demand.
Pitch Summary:
At the end of July, CCRD announced its intention to sell itself to Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) in an all-stock deal valued at $30 / share. Our returns were substantially enhanced by doubling the size of the position when the stock declined in late '23 and early '24. As I wrote back in July, I had anticipated a sale before year-end, and although this isn't the one I'd hoped for, it solves multiple problems for both companies. CCRD gain...
Pitch Summary:
At the end of July, CCRD announced its intention to sell itself to Euronet Worldwide (EEFT) in an all-stock deal valued at $30 / share. Our returns were substantially enhanced by doubling the size of the position when the stock declined in late '23 and early '24. As I wrote back in July, I had anticipated a sale before year-end, and although this isn't the one I'd hoped for, it solves multiple problems for both companies. CCRD gains a haven where it can rebuild revenues in a post-Apple Card world (this deal wouldn't happen if the company believed it would keep processing the Apple Card), CCRD shareholders have an offramp for their stock if they want and EEFT adds a substantial and well-tested digital payments platform to its legacy ATM networks, prepaid mobile cards and money transfer business.
BSD Analysis:
CoreCard provides card-management software that powers modern fintechs, enabling flexible credit, prepaid, and BNPL products. Demand is tied to fintech innovation cycles, which creates lumpiness but also high upside. The business is small but strategically important for clients who need customizable, compliant transaction platforms. CoreCard runs lean, producing solid margins and cash flow despite its size. The challenge is scaling efficiently — the company must expand infrastructure without losing its bespoke edge. As card issuance modernizes, CoreCard sits in a sweet niche. A micro-cap fintech infrastructure play with leverage to secular payment growth.
Pitch Summary:
Shares of Chinese technology giant Alibaba traded down following strong first quarter performance. While the company reported revenue and profit growth for its most recent quarter, results narrowly missed consensus expectations. We believe that Alibaba is well positioned to benefit from Chinese investment in generative artificial intelligence (AI). The company also continues to invest in growing its businesses and improving operati...
Pitch Summary:
Shares of Chinese technology giant Alibaba traded down following strong first quarter performance. While the company reported revenue and profit growth for its most recent quarter, results narrowly missed consensus expectations. We believe that Alibaba is well positioned to benefit from Chinese investment in generative artificial intelligence (AI). The company also continues to invest in growing its businesses and improving operating efficiencies, even as it returns cash to shareholders through dividends and stock repurchases.
BSD Analysis:
Alibaba’s latest quarterly results showed solid revenue and non-GAAP earnings growth despite macro headwinds, with net income for the September quarter exceeding RMB 40 billion. The company continues to repurchase shares and has introduced regular dividends, signaling confidence in cash-generation capacity and a shareholder-friendly capital allocation stance. Cloud computing, logistics and international commerce provide additional growth vectors beyond the core domestic marketplace. While regulatory risk and competitive intensity remain elevated, the stock trades at a discounted teens P/E multiple relative to global mega-cap tech peers, embedding conservative expectations. If execution on AI initiatives and margin discipline continues, there is meaningful upside as sentiment toward Chinese equities normalizes.
Pitch Summary:
London-based Willis Towers Watson is one of the largest global insurance brokerage and consulting companies. The company continues to execute on its turnaround plan to improve profitability. The divestiture of its direct-to-consumer insurance distribution business at the end of 2024, however, caused a decline in cash flows for its most recent quarter and weighed on its shares. We like Willis Towers Watson’s high customer retention ...
Pitch Summary:
London-based Willis Towers Watson is one of the largest global insurance brokerage and consulting companies. The company continues to execute on its turnaround plan to improve profitability. The divestiture of its direct-to-consumer insurance distribution business at the end of 2024, however, caused a decline in cash flows for its most recent quarter and weighed on its shares. We like Willis Towers Watson’s high customer retention and ability to participate in nominal economic drift, and we continue to believe that the company’s turnaround plan will help drive growth and improve returns.
BSD Analysis:
WTW delivered around 5% organic revenue growth and double-digit adjusted EPS growth in its most recent quarter, alongside expanding margins and improving free cash flow, reflecting successful execution of its turnaround agenda. The disposal of lower-margin direct-to-consumer operations temporarily reduced reported revenue but improves mix and strategic focus on higher-value advisory and broking. Shares trade at roughly the mid-teens P/E, a modest premium to traditional insurance brokers but below many global professional services peers, suggesting room for re-rating as margin expansion continues. With sticky client relationships, pricing benefits from nominal GDP growth and a cleaner portfolio, WTW offers a compelling compounder profile for long-term investors.
Pitch Summary:
SLB is the world’s largest oilfield service company. In addition to commodity price weakness during the quarter, share performance was dampened by concerns that tariffs and trade uncertainty could negatively impact oilfield service providers. While rig counts and drilling activity have declined this year, the majority of the slowdown has been in North America. In contrast, OPEC+ has increased production, which should benefit SLB gi...
Pitch Summary:
SLB is the world’s largest oilfield service company. In addition to commodity price weakness during the quarter, share performance was dampened by concerns that tariffs and trade uncertainty could negatively impact oilfield service providers. While rig counts and drilling activity have declined this year, the majority of the slowdown has been in North America. In contrast, OPEC+ has increased production, which should benefit SLB given that it derives approximately 80% of its revenue from international and offshore markets.
BSD Analysis:
Recent quarterly results show SLB growing EPS modestly year over year while generating more than $1 billion of quarterly free cash flow, even as North American activity has softened. International revenue still represents about 80% of total, where investment in offshore and Middle East capacity remains relatively robust versus North American shale. The balance sheet is solid, supporting dividends and opportunistic buybacks while funding technology investments and digital initiatives that can lift margins over time. Trading at a low-to-mid-teens forward P/E and single-digit EV/EBITDA, SLB offers attractive exposure to a multi-year international oil and gas investment cycle, albeit with inherent commodity and policy risk.
Pitch Summary:
Becton Dickinson develops and manufactures medical devices, instrument systems and reagents used in a variety of professional and public settings. The company reported lower-than-expected revenue for its most recent quarter because of weakness in its research instrument and diagnostics businesses resulting from lower global research spending and the impact of tariffs. We continue to like Becton Dickinson’s ability to generate cash ...
Pitch Summary:
Becton Dickinson develops and manufactures medical devices, instrument systems and reagents used in a variety of professional and public settings. The company reported lower-than-expected revenue for its most recent quarter because of weakness in its research instrument and diagnostics businesses resulting from lower global research spending and the impact of tariffs. We continue to like Becton Dickinson’s ability to generate cash and its commitment to enhancing shareholder value through stock buybacks and dividends.
BSD Analysis:
Despite a softer quarter in certain research and diagnostics lines, BD’s latest fiscal year showed revenue growth of roughly 8% and high single-digit adjusted EPS growth, underscoring the resilience of its diversified portfolio. Gross margin expansion driven by productivity initiatives indicates underlying pricing power and cost control. The company has returned over $2 billion to shareholders recently via dividends and repurchases, while maintaining investment in innovation across injection systems, infusion therapy and diagnostics. At a mid-20s P/E multiple, BD is not cheap, but offers a high-quality, cash-generative exposure to secular healthcare demand with some cyclical upside as research spending normalizes. Tariff headwinds appear manageable relative to the breadth of the franchise.
Pitch Summary:
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is the world’s largest semiconductor foundry, a primary manufacturer of advanced chips used in generative artificial intelligence with Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel, Advanced Micro Devices and Apple among its clients. TSMC reported continued strong sales during the quarter, with an expanded contribution from AI. We believe TSMC has extended its edge over competitors to become the de facto foundry for many cust...
Pitch Summary:
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is the world’s largest semiconductor foundry, a primary manufacturer of advanced chips used in generative artificial intelligence with Nvidia, Broadcom, Intel, Advanced Micro Devices and Apple among its clients. TSMC reported continued strong sales during the quarter, with an expanded contribution from AI. We believe TSMC has extended its edge over competitors to become the de facto foundry for many customers. The company has made significant efforts in recent years to geographically diversify its manufacturing base, including in the US.
BSD Analysis:
TSMC’s monthly sales data show revenue growing more than 30% year over year in recent periods, driven by leading-edge nodes used in AI and high-performance computing. Gross margins remain among the highest in the industry, reflecting its technological lead and pricing power at 3- and 5-nanometer processes. The company is investing aggressively in new fabs in the US and other regions, which creates near-term capex headwinds but strengthens geopolitical resilience and customer stickiness. Shares trade at a premium to the broader semiconductor group on earnings and EV/EBITDA, justified by its dominant share in leading-edge foundry and long-run AI demand. For long-term investors, execution on overseas fabs and continued process leadership are the key variables, but the structural positioning is highly attractive.
Pitch Summary:
Meta—the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, among other social-media platforms—reported strong revenue and earnings growth during the quarter, driven by increases in both ad impressions and price per ad. The company continued to aggressively invest and hire in AI, even as it develops its core advertising businesses. We believe these results demonstrate Meta’s ability to focus on both profitability and efficiency in...
Pitch Summary:
Meta—the parent company of Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, among other social-media platforms—reported strong revenue and earnings growth during the quarter, driven by increases in both ad impressions and price per ad. The company continued to aggressively invest and hire in AI, even as it develops its core advertising businesses. We believe these results demonstrate Meta’s ability to focus on both profitability and efficiency in conjunction with ongoing investments in the core ad business, the metaverse and other AI applications.
BSD Analysis:
Meta is growing revenue at a high-teens to ~20% clip while maintaining very high operating margins, driving strong free cash flow that funds large-scale buybacks. Despite heavy AI and infrastructure investment, leverage is modest and the balance sheet carries substantial net cash, supporting strategic flexibility. Shares trade at roughly the high-20s P/E, which screens attractive relative to an estimated fair multiple in the high-30s given growth and profitability. The pivot away from loss-making metaverse spend toward AI, along with ongoing user and monetization growth across Reels and messaging, provides multiple avenues for upside. Regulatory and antitrust scrutiny remain overhangs, but the core ad franchise and AI optionality support a constructive long-term view.
Pitch Summary:
Oracle, one of the world’s largest independent enterprise software companies, reported strong results during the quarter, largely driven by its cloud operations, which comprise approximately 75% of revenues. Oracle has benefited from the shift to a cloud-first approach by enterprises and an overall increase in industrywide capital expenditures on artificial intelligence. Strategic partnerships with companies including Microsoft and...
Pitch Summary:
Oracle, one of the world’s largest independent enterprise software companies, reported strong results during the quarter, largely driven by its cloud operations, which comprise approximately 75% of revenues. Oracle has benefited from the shift to a cloud-first approach by enterprises and an overall increase in industrywide capital expenditures on artificial intelligence. Strategic partnerships with companies including Microsoft and Alphabet broaden Oracle’s reach to address diverse customer needs. Growth in remaining performance obligations suggests continued strong prospective revenues.
BSD Analysis:
Oracle’s fundamentals remain robust, with total quarterly revenue growing at a low-double-digit rate and cloud services and license support up in the mid-teens year over year, underscoring the durability of its cloud transition. Remaining performance obligations above $400 billion provide multi-year visibility into future revenue streams. The stock trades at an elevated high-40s P/E on trailing earnings, a premium to its historical average, reflecting investor confidence in sustained cloud growth and AI-related workloads. While valuation is demanding, incremental operating leverage from scale and continued expansion of Oracle Cloud Infrastructure can support earnings growth that justifies a premium multiple. Balance sheet strength and recurring cash flow also underpin ongoing buybacks and dividends, which enhance per-share value.
Pitch Summary:
In parallel, companies like Maxar are seeing increased demand for high-resolution satellite imagery to support military operations. Major US tech firms are also developing proprietary satellite networks for internal communications. Until recently, Europe lagged in satellite deployment. That has changed. Recognising the strategic importance of space-based infrastructure, Ursula von der Leyen’s budget has earmarked significant fundin...
Pitch Summary:
In parallel, companies like Maxar are seeing increased demand for high-resolution satellite imagery to support military operations. Major US tech firms are also developing proprietary satellite networks for internal communications. Until recently, Europe lagged in satellite deployment. That has changed. Recognising the strategic importance of space-based infrastructure, Ursula von der Leyen’s budget has earmarked significant funding for new launches, with a goal of increasing from 2 to 8 launches per year in the near term.
BSD Analysis:
Maxar is a high-stakes play on commercial and government space imagery, geospatial intelligence, and satellite manufacturing. Its WorldView and Legion constellations provide some of the highest-resolution commercial imagery on the planet — a capability increasingly tied to national security, defense analytics, and AI-driven mapping. The company went private to clean up its capital structure and absorb the cost overruns tied to satellite delays, giving it breathing room to execute without quarterly scrutiny. Demand for real-time, high-fidelity imagery has surged as conflict zones and climate monitoring become policy priorities. Maxar also has a meaningful manufacturing arm building satellites for commercial constellations and government customers. The risk is operational execution — Maxar has stumbled before — but the strategic relevance of its capabilities keeps demand durable. If Legion performs as advertised, the equity story could re-rate meaningfully when it eventually returns to public markets.
Pitch Summary:
Park Aerospace manufactures high-performance composite materials (ablatives) used in jet engines and missile systems. Its products are essential to both commercial aerospace and defense applications. Even in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine, demand appears resilient. Notably, President Zelensky has reached an agreement with former President Trump to purchase $100 billion in military equipment, funded by rising European defense b...
Pitch Summary:
Park Aerospace manufactures high-performance composite materials (ablatives) used in jet engines and missile systems. Its products are essential to both commercial aerospace and defense applications. Even in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine, demand appears resilient. Notably, President Zelensky has reached an agreement with former President Trump to purchase $100 billion in military equipment, funded by rising European defense budgets. Anticipating only a temporary ceasefire, Ukraine has already requested 10 additional Patriot missile systems, which require materials that Park Aerospace supplies. Moreover, ongoing demand for commercial engines further supports the company’s growth outlook.
BSD Analysis:
Park Aerospace is a small but highly specialized supplier of advanced composite materials used in aerospace structures, radomes, and defense applications. As commercial aerospace production ramps and defense spending strengthens, Park benefits from rising volumes and a shift toward lighter, higher-performance materials. Its footprint is lean, and once a material is qualified on a platform, it tends to stay there for decades — a big moat for a company of this size. Margins can swing with mix and plant utilization, but Park’s long-cycle content gives it solid visibility. Expansion into next-gen composite technologies positions the company for incremental share gains as airframes modernize. It’s not a household name, but it sits in the slipstream of durable aerospace fundamentals. For patient investors, Park is a subtle but levered way to play aerospace recovery.
Pitch Summary:
The next iteration of NVIDIA’s GPU architecture, Rubin, is scheduled for release in 2026 and is set to significantly alter the energy infrastructure within data centres. We are actively evaluating which companies stand to benefit most from these shifts. The core architectural changes will likely drive: • Increased demand for supercapacitors – miniature batteries that store energy at the chip level. • Greater reliance on advanced se...
Pitch Summary:
The next iteration of NVIDIA’s GPU architecture, Rubin, is scheduled for release in 2026 and is set to significantly alter the energy infrastructure within data centres. We are actively evaluating which companies stand to benefit most from these shifts. The core architectural changes will likely drive: • Increased demand for supercapacitors – miniature batteries that store energy at the chip level. • Greater reliance on advanced semiconductors that enable voltage step-down closer to the chip, with silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) emerging as preferred materials over traditional silicon. We are currently assessing a handful of names that may be well positioned, including AEHR Test Systems, Navitas Semiconductor, Delta Electronics, and Aixtron. It's increasingly clear to us that we will hit an energy limitation on data centre development probably around the middle to end of next year. Companies like Argan, Power Solutions International, Tecogen, Bloom Energy, Willdan and Solaris may benefit. While there will be many ways to take advantage of this shortage, we believe the current valuation of these stocks does not yet reflect the future opportunity set, and we are waiting for more attractive entry points. There are many that draw similarities between the current rapid pace of data centre development and the many miles of fibre optic cable that were laid down when the internet was invented. We believe that this analogy is flawed. Fibre infrastructure, once laid, does not scale proportionally with demand. The system does not require a doubling of fibre to support a doubling of usage. In contrast, AI inference and model training are compute and power-intensive tasks that scale non-linearly with usage, and the infrastructure must grow accordingly. A more material threat to demand would be a breakthrough in compute efficiency – a new way of achieving the same computational output with less energy. We continue to monitor this risk.
BSD Analysis:
NVIDIA isn’t just riding the AI wave — it is the wave, with a hardware–software stack so entrenched that hyperscalers effectively budget around Jensen Huang’s roadmap. The company’s dominance in accelerated computing gives it absurd pricing power and margins rarely seen in semiconductors. CUDA remains a formidable moat, locking developers and enterprises into an ecosystem that compounds with every AI model trained. Supply constraints are easing, but demand from LLM training, inference, and AI factories continues to outpace even aggressive capacity expansions. Competition is rising, yet NVIDIA keeps moving up the stack into networking, software, and full-stack platforms where it captures even more value. The risk isn’t whether AI slows — it’s how long NVIDIA can remain the bottleneck everyone is forced to pay. For now, it’s still the house in a casino it built.
Pitch Summary:
Our investments here are unchanged with Friedrich Vorwerk showing significant earnings momentum in Q2. The company cited the potential for far more significant growth as a result of the hydrogen energy pipeline plan the German Cabinet recently passed. The potential scale of the opportunity would be 4-5x more than the revenue the company generated in the last 12 months. The German Cabinet also passed their spending proposal for infr...
Pitch Summary:
Our investments here are unchanged with Friedrich Vorwerk showing significant earnings momentum in Q2. The company cited the potential for far more significant growth as a result of the hydrogen energy pipeline plan the German Cabinet recently passed. The potential scale of the opportunity would be 4-5x more than the revenue the company generated in the last 12 months. The German Cabinet also passed their spending proposal for infrastructure work starting in 2026. We continue to believe that we are early in this infrastructure cycle, with both Friedrich Vorwerk and Strabag well positioned to benefit from the upcoming surge in public sector demand.
BSD Analysis:
Friedrich Vorwerk sits right in the flow of Europe’s massive energy-transition capex, specializing in grid, pipeline, and high-voltage infrastructure work that governments are finally funding at scale. The company’s engineering and EPC capabilities position it as a direct beneficiary of Germany’s push for electrification, hydrogen transport, and grid reinforcement. Backlogs are strong, but execution and workforce management remain the key swing factors in margin performance. These projects are complex and politically sensitive, meaning Vorwerk’s reputation and track record matter more than price alone. The business is cyclical at the bidding level but structurally supported by multi-decade infrastructure deficits. As Europe accelerates hydrogen and transmission build-out, the company’s pipeline should thicken. This is a niche but high-leverage play on the continent’s energy modernization.
Pitch Summary:
Additional pressure came from currency headwinds, with over half of sales generated outside the US. The company did report better-than-expected organic growth in Self Care and Essential Health, reflecting some underlying resilience. Management remains focused on accelerating Health & Beauty growth and leveraging its strong brand portfolio to support longer-term recovery.
BSD Analysis:
Kenvue is a high-quality CPG spin-off that tra...
Pitch Summary:
Additional pressure came from currency headwinds, with over half of sales generated outside the US. The company did report better-than-expected organic growth in Self Care and Essential Health, reflecting some underlying resilience. Management remains focused on accelerating Health & Beauty growth and leveraging its strong brand portfolio to support longer-term recovery.
BSD Analysis:
Kenvue is a high-quality CPG spin-off that trades at a discount due to post-separation financial noise and short-term organic sales headwinds. The investment thesis is a bet on the structural strength of its billion-dollar power brands (Tylenol, Listerine, Neutrogena) and the eventual realization of massive cost savings and gross margin expansion from supply chain optimization under its "Our Vue Forward" program. The stock is a de-risked play on owning a portfolio of essential, recession-resilient consumer health products with predictable cash flow and high pricing power. The successful, final sell-down by its former parent, Johnson & Johnson, eliminates the technical overhang, positioning Kenvue for a justified multiple re-rating as its operating margins normalize.
Pitch Summary:
Applied Materials (+26.5%) reported resilient fiscal second-quarter results, with in-line revenue and upside on margins and EPS. Strength in leading-edge foundry/logic and a rebound in NAND spending offset continued weakness in DRAM and ICAPS. Gross margins reached 49.2%, the highest since 2000, and management guided to sequential growth in the July quarter. The company highlighted strong positioning in gate-all-around (GAA) and in...
Pitch Summary:
Applied Materials (+26.5%) reported resilient fiscal second-quarter results, with in-line revenue and upside on margins and EPS. Strength in leading-edge foundry/logic and a rebound in NAND spending offset continued weakness in DRAM and ICAPS. Gross margins reached 49.2%, the highest since 2000, and management guided to sequential growth in the July quarter. The company highlighted strong positioning in gate-all-around (GAA) and increased R&D investment to support AI-related demand. Despite export control risks, China exposure appears de-risked, and long-term drivers in HBM, advanced packaging, and integrated solutions remain constructive.
BSD Analysis:
Applied Materials is the unavoidable gatekeeper of the multi-decade semiconductor manufacturing supercycle, dominating the foundational processes that every advanced chipmaker must use. While the stock has underperformed peers due to temporary weakness in logic and cyclical market mix, this merely represents a deferred revenue backlog that is set to unleash in 2026. The investment thesis is rooted in AMAT’s unique and indispensable leadership in the inflection points of chip architecture: gate-all-around (GAA), high-bandwidth memory (HBM), and advanced packaging. This positions the company to capture the highest-value steps of the AI buildout, regardless of which chip designer wins. The high-margin Applied Global Services (AGS) segment provides a defensive, recurring revenue floor, ensuring predictable cash flow and shareholder returns that belie the industry's perceived volatility.
Pitch Summary:
Oracle (+57.0%) was the top performer, driven by strong earnings and bullish FY26 guidance. Cloud revenue rose 27% year-over-year, with Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) up 62%. Management raised FY26 revenue guidance to $67B and projected OCI growth of over 70%, supported by a $138B backlog and increased CapEx plans. Strong momentum in ERP and Autonomous Database, along with major cloud deals – one expected to contribute $30B annu...
Pitch Summary:
Oracle (+57.0%) was the top performer, driven by strong earnings and bullish FY26 guidance. Cloud revenue rose 27% year-over-year, with Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) up 62%. Management raised FY26 revenue guidance to $67B and projected OCI growth of over 70%, supported by a $138B backlog and increased CapEx plans. Strong momentum in ERP and Autonomous Database, along with major cloud deals – one expected to contribute $30B annually by FY28 – fueled optimism around Oracle’s growth trajectory and reinforced confidence in its expanding role in AI infrastructure.
BSD Analysis:
Oracle’s thesis is that it has transitioned from a legacy software vendor into a structurally faster-growing cloud and AI infrastructure platform, underpinned by high-visibility backlog and aggressive CapEx to support demand. With a forward P/E in the low-30s to low-40s range and a large recurring-revenue base, the stock embeds strong but not unreasonable growth expectations for mid-teens EPS growth over the medium term. The accelerating growth in OCI, combined with differentiated offerings in Autonomous Database and ERP, should support mix-driven margin expansion as scale improves. Massive signed cloud deals and a $100B+ backlog give multiyear revenue visibility and limit downside from macro volatility. We see further upside if management continues to convert backlog efficiently into revenue and maintains disciplined capital returns via dividends and buybacks.
Pitch Summary:
Newmark Group (NMRK) is a top-tier commercial real estate (CRE) services firm offering a full suite of advisory solutions across investment sales, debt brokerage, leasing, property and facility management, mortgage servicing, and valuation. The company is a structurally improving commercial real estate services platform that is gaining market share in capital markets and mortgage servicing while shifting toward a more resilient, re...
Pitch Summary:
Newmark Group (NMRK) is a top-tier commercial real estate (CRE) services firm offering a full suite of advisory solutions across investment sales, debt brokerage, leasing, property and facility management, mortgage servicing, and valuation. The company is a structurally improving commercial real estate services platform that is gaining market share in capital markets and mortgage servicing while shifting toward a more resilient, recurring revenue model. Despite muted industry volumes, the company continues to execute well, supported by strong free cash flow, low leverage, and a substantial repurchase authorization. The recent removal of an insider ownership overhang further enhances governance clarity and capital return visibility. With shares trading well below historical levels and peer valuations the market is over-discounting macro risks, creating an attractive entry point as volumes normalize and durable revenue streams compound.
BSD Analysis:
NMRK presents an attractive deep-value setup with improving fundamentals and a business mix shifting toward higher-quality recurring revenue. Free cash flow strength and low leverage provide downside protection, while buybacks enhance per-share value creation. Market-share gains in mortgage servicing and capital markets position the firm for operating leverage once CRE transaction volumes recover. Governance has improved after reduction of insider ownership concentration. Shares trade at a significant discount to peers such as CBRE and JLL on EBITDA multiples despite similar or improving fundamentals. Key catalysts include volume normalization, continued repurchases, and stabilization in CRE credit markets.
Pitch Summary:
Norfolk Southern (NSC) – Shares of NSC were purchased in the strategy. With origins dating to 1827, NSC owns and operates a rail network spanning 19,200 route miles and 22 states. From late 2022 through early 2025, the transports industry experienced a freight downturn with a consistent decline in shipment volumes due to destocking and a drop in consumer demand from the pandemic highs. Rail intermodal was hit particularly hard, wit...
Pitch Summary:
Norfolk Southern (NSC) – Shares of NSC were purchased in the strategy. With origins dating to 1827, NSC owns and operates a rail network spanning 19,200 route miles and 22 states. From late 2022 through early 2025, the transports industry experienced a freight downturn with a consistent decline in shipment volumes due to destocking and a drop in consumer demand from the pandemic highs. Rail intermodal was hit particularly hard, with 2024 industrywide intermodal volumes down roughly 10% from 2022. However, volumes have begun to recover in 2025, with weekly rail traffic up mid-single digits from a year ago. While concerns remain surrounding the impact of tariffs and global trade fluctuations, NSC should be resilient given its strong presence in the Eastern US connecting 60% of the country’s consumer base and manufacturing base. Importantly, NSC’s operating ratio (OR), a primary measure of rail efficiency, significantly lags that of major peers, with adjusted OR’s in mid- to high 60s versus peers in the low 60s or high 50s percentiles. Increasing efficiency and lowering the OR is a primary goal of Mark George, who took over as CEO in September 2024. Through the implementation of precision scheduled railroading (PSR), Mr. George and his team believe NSC can achieve a low-60s OR in the medium term and a below 60 OR over the longer term. Shares of NSC were purchased at a P/E of 16.8x with a 2.3% dividend yield.
BSD Analysis:
Norfolk Southern is a deeply discounted railroad that represents an aggressive, high-beta turnaround play on overcoming a crippling regulatory and safety crisis. The investment thesis is a bet on the non-cyclical, oligopolistic nature of U.S. rail freight combined with the company’s ability to successfully implement Precision Scheduled Railroading (PSR) 2.0. This involves leveraging Navy nuclear expertise to permanently raise safety standards and operational efficiency, thereby improving its historically poor operating ratio. While the stock remains under a cloud due to litigation and increased CapEx spending, the high operating leverage inherent in the rail business means that even modest improvements in network efficiency will translate into massive, compounding profit growth. For the contrarian, NSC offers a chance to buy a critical infrastructure asset at a trough valuation, anticipating a significant re-rating as regulatory and safety risks are de-fanged.
Pitch Summary:
ConocoPhillips (COP) – The stock was purchased in the strategy during the quarter. ConocoPhillips is a leading independent exploration and production company with a global portfolio of low-cost, high-return assets and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. The company is approaching a free cash flow inflection as capital spending on major long-cycle projects begins to roll off in 2H25, improving its ability to return capital to...
Pitch Summary:
ConocoPhillips (COP) – The stock was purchased in the strategy during the quarter. ConocoPhillips is a leading independent exploration and production company with a global portfolio of low-cost, high-return assets and a disciplined capital allocation strategy. The company is approaching a free cash flow inflection as capital spending on major long-cycle projects begins to roll off in 2H25, improving its ability to return capital to shareholders. Management targets returning approximately 45% of operating cash flow through dividends and buybacks, supported by efficiency gains and a strong balance sheet. COP trades at 14.4x 2025 EPS and offers an ~8% capital return yield, presenting an attractive entry point amid a constructive long-term oil backdrop.
BSD Analysis:
ConocoPhillips is the premier free cash flow machine among large-cap exploration and production (E&P) companies, operating with a peer-leading capital discipline that is unmatched in the industry. The core thesis is a pure, leveraged play on production volume and LNG optionality, where the company is structured to deliver a massive $7 billion Free Cash Flow inflection by 2029 from major projects like Willow. Management’s unwavering commitment to return over 30% of operating cash flow to shareholders via a secure, growing ordinary dividend and aggressive buybacks creates a compelling floor for the stock. COP is a de-risked bet on high-margin domestic oil production combined with multi-decade upside from its strategically located global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) portfolio.
Pitch Summary:
PPG Industries (PPG) – Shares of PPG were purchased in the quarter. PPG is a leading global manufacturer of paints, coatings, and specialty materials serving diverse end markets, including aerospace, automotive, industrial, packaging, and construction. PPG represents an attractive investment opportunity due to its diversified revenue streams, strong innovation pipeline, and potential for earnings recovery. The company’s focus on va...
Pitch Summary:
PPG Industries (PPG) – Shares of PPG were purchased in the quarter. PPG is a leading global manufacturer of paints, coatings, and specialty materials serving diverse end markets, including aerospace, automotive, industrial, packaging, and construction. PPG represents an attractive investment opportunity due to its diversified revenue streams, strong innovation pipeline, and potential for earnings recovery. The company’s focus on value-enhancing acquisitions, disciplined cost management, and exposure to high-growth end markets positions it well for long-term success. While macroeconomic headwinds persist, PPG’s pricing power, cost control measures, and aerospace/industrial recovery provide earnings support.
BSD Analysis:
PPG is the defensive industrial compounder that is consistently undervalued for its perceived cyclicality, ignoring its massive, high-margin exposure to specialized, non-cyclical end markets. The core investment thesis is built on PPG’s structural pricing power, which allows it to pass through raw material inflation and expand margins even during industrial slowdowns. Its double-digit growth in the crucial Aerospace Coatings and Packaging Coatings segments provides superior revenue visibility, insulating it from the soft architectural market. The company’s relentless focus on portfolio simplification and the imminent, massive discount to its calculated intrinsic value (over 35% by some models) make it a classic deep-value play. PPG is a bet on the eventual multiple re-rating as accelerating unit volumes convert its pricing power directly into explosive earnings growth.