Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Following the spin-off from Holcim, Amrize shares have lagged despite high-quality assets. U.S. housing softness masked underlying earnings power. We increased our stake in Amrize, supported by strong insider buying led by CEO Jan Jenisch, who purchased over 1.25 million shares on the open market. We believe Amrize offers significant upside as U.S. construction normalizes and management applies focused portfolio discipline.

BSD Analysis:
Amrize’s moat is process knowledge and long-term client relationships rather than technology leadership. It lives inside customer operations where replacement risk is more political than technical. Growth is steady but structurally capped by labor intensity. Margins depend on utilization and project mix, not pricing power. Competition is fragmented, but differentiation is thin. Scale helps credibility, yet it doesn’t unlock operating leverage the way software would. The bull case is continued outsourcing demand and stable renewals. The bear case is wage inflation and client insourcing pressure. Amrize survives by being reliable—not by being indispensable.

Pitch Summary:
We initiated our position in Holcim in 2021, seeing a disciplined transformation under CEO Jan Jenisch. EBIT margins expanded materially as the company exited lower-return assets and pivoted toward higher-margin building solutions. In 2025, Holcim spun off its North American business into Amrize to unlock sum-of-the-parts value. Since the spin, Holcim shares have surged over 70%, driven by European infrastructure spending and tightening supply. We trimmed Holcim materially to harvest gains and reallocated capital to Amrize.

BSD Analysis:
Holcim enters 2026 as a leaner, more focused global player following the successful spin-off of its North American business. The company’s "NextGen Growth 2030" strategy is centered on shifting toward lower-carbon building materials like ECOPact concrete, which now accounts for over 30% of sales. While construction volumes in Europe have moderated, Holcim’s high-margin "Solutions & Products" division is driving steady EBIT growth. Management is prioritizing efficiency and pricing power to offset cost inflation, ensuring that margins remain industry-leading at over 18%. The company’s strong balance sheet provides a cushion for continued strategic acquisitions in the green building space. For 2026, Holcim offers a defensive yet innovative play on the structural trend of sustainable urbanization and infrastructure development.

Pitch Summary:
Nubank’s shares rose 63% in 2025, driven by earnings growth of approximately 42%. Brazil remains a strong profit engine while Mexico has emerged as a major growth vector, with penetration reaching ~14% of the population. Management is deliberately prioritizing long-term unit economics over near-term profitability, particularly in Mexico. Despite strong fundamentals, the stock ended the year trading at ~19.5x forward earnings, below where it began the year. We view this as a disconnect driven by political uncertainty and rate concerns rather than business deterioration.

BSD Analysis:
Nu Holdings, better known as Nubank, continues to disrupt the Latin American financial landscape, entering 2026 with a massive and loyal customer base in Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. The company is successfully cross-selling high-margin credit and insurance products, which has led to a significant increase in average revenue per active user. Management is leveraging its low-cost digital-first model to maintain a competitive advantage over traditional incumbent banks that are burdened by legacy infrastructure. While macroeconomic volatility in Brazil remains a risk, Nubank’s superior data analytics allow it to manage credit risk with higher precision. Analysts are increasingly optimistic, with some projecting the share price to nearly double by 2029 as the underbanked population continues to adopt digital banking. For 2026, Nu remains the premier "fintech" play for investors looking for explosive growth in emerging markets.

Pitch Summary:
We initiated our position in On Holding in April 2025 following a broad market selloff tied to supply-chain concerns. Despite near-term consumer softness and competitor discounting, On reaffirmed its commitment to full-price selling, prioritizing long-term brand equity. Management raised revenue, margin, and EBITDA guidance three times during 2025. Growth is accelerating in apparel and Asia Pacific, with the region growing over 100% year-on-year. Despite these fundamentals, the stock de-rated sharply and traded at a discount to Nike on a P/E basis. We view this as a rare opportunity to own a premium brand at a discount.

BSD Analysis:
On Holding is experiencing explosive growth in 2026, successfully transitioning from a niche running brand to a mainstream global footwear powerhouse. The company’s direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales have risen nearly 30%, which has significantly improved gross margins and overall profitability. Management is aggressively expanding into the Latin American market, where it is seeing a triple-digit growth rate among the running community. While apparel sales remain a smaller portion of the business, the long-term potential for a full lifestyle brand is a major catalyst for the stock. Strategic marketing investments and a premium pricing strategy have ensured that the brand remains highly desirable even as it scales. For 2026, On Holding offers a high-growth entry into the athletic apparel space with substantial EBITDA margin expansion potential.

Pitch Summary:
Warren Buffett announced he would step down as CEO at year-end, marking the end of an extraordinary era. We believe Berkshire’s culture is deeply ingrained and will endure under incoming CEO Greg Abel, a 27-year company veteran. Buffett’s children will retain significant voting control and board representation. Berkshire holds approximately $382 billion in cash, providing enormous optionality. While Abel’s capital allocation track record remains to be proven, we believe risk management discipline will persist. Berkshire continues to play a critical role in the portfolio as a stable anchor with long-term optionality.

BSD Analysis:
Berkshire Hathaway enters 2026 with a record-breaking cash pile, positioning the conglomerate as the ultimate "lender of last resort" in a maturing market cycle. Under the leadership of Greg Abel, the company is successfully maintaining its core focus on resilient cash flow from its insurance, railroad, and utility operations. For 2026, the investment case is bolstered by GEICO’s improved underwriting performance and BNSF’s operational efficiencies. Management remains extremely disciplined, refusing to overpay for acquisitions despite the pressure to deploy its nearly $160 billion in cash. The company’s equity portfolio continues to evolve, with a greater emphasis on stable, cash-generative businesses that can withstand inflationary pressures. For investors, Berkshire remains the quintessential "fortress" asset, offering unparalleled downside protection and long-term compounding potential.

Pitch Summary:
All roads—mobile, EVs, cloud computing—run on chips, and all chips lead to TSMC. TSMC controls roughly 67% of global foundry revenue and approximately 90% of leading-edge nodes. It is the sole supplier of cutting-edge AI processors and captures more than 100% of industry profits. Despite investing roughly $280 billion in R&D and capex since 2011, TSMC has sustained ROIC north of 20%. The company is mitigating geopolitical risk by expanding advanced fabs in the U.S., Japan, and Germany. At our initial purchase price around $240, shares traded at 18x earnings, a material discount to customers like Nvidia and Apple despite their dependence on TSMC. We believe the market continues to overprice Taiwan risk relative to fundamentals.

BSD Analysis:
TSMC remains the undisputed backbone of the global semiconductor industry, with its 2026 outlook dominated by the ramp-up of its 2nm process technology. The company is the primary beneficiary of the AI infrastructure boom, producing the high-performance chips required by every major hyperscaler and chip designer. Management’s aggressive capital expenditure plans are securing its technological lead, ensuring it remains the sole provider for mission-critical hardware. While geopolitical tensions in the Taiwan Strait act as a valuation overhang, the firm's geographic diversification into Arizona and Germany is beginning to mitigate localized risks. TSMC’s superior gross margins and yield rates provide it with unmatched pricing power in the foundry market. For 2026, the stock is a "must-own" for investors seeking concentrated exposure to the industrialization of artificial intelligence.

Pitch Summary:
Alphabet continues to be treated like the stepchild of the AI revolution despite having invented it. We believe the company employs some of the best and brightest engineering minds. Its seven platforms with over 2 billion users provide fertile ground for this talent to generate additional use cases and value for consumers and enterprises. It has a vast and unique trove of data on which to train and enhance its models. Fast forward one year and sentiment on Alphabet has shifted dramatically. The Company released new models and products, received a favorable antitrust ruling, and launched Gemini 3 to raving reviews. Gemini has been gaining meaningful market share from ChatGPT and was entirely trained on Google’s TPUs. Alphabet delivered its first $100 billion revenue quarter in Q3 and incremental returns on capital remain attractive despite materially higher capex. We trimmed roughly a quarter of our position but continue to hold a significant stake given the strength of the core business and substantial optionality.

BSD Analysis:
Alphabet enters 2026 as a premier leader in the artificial intelligence era, successfully transitioning its core search business to incorporate generative AI via the Gemini model. The company is benefiting from a significant structural advantage through its sixth and seventh-generation Tensor Processing Units (TPUs), which reduce internal compute costs while attracting major enterprise cloud deals. For 2026, the investment narrative is bolstered by Google Cloud’s continued path toward higher profitability and YouTube’s resilient advertising revenue despite a fragmented media landscape. While regulatory challenges and antitrust scrutiny remain persistent risks, Alphabet's massive $100 billion-plus cash pile provides a substantial cushion for aggressive share repurchases and strategic investments. Management’s focus on "Other Bets," particularly in autonomous driving via Waymo, offers long-term optionality beyond digital advertising. With a P/E ratio that remains attractive relative to its "Magnificent Seven" peers, Alphabet provides a balanced profile of growth and value.

Pitch Summary:
Mach is different from Kimbell Royalty Partners in the sense that MNR is a non-traditional exploration and production (E&P) company. The company buys or leases producing acreage and then drills additional wells when and where they think they have a knowledge or operational advantage. It’s worth noting here that 99% of MNR’s 2.8M acres are held by production. Additionally, MNR has an interest in 12,600 operating wells, 653 million BOE of reserves, and produces 151,000 BOE/d. And finally, consensus estimates for next year’s dividend are $2.20/share, or a 19.3% yield. In one sense, MNR has an ownership interest in the minerals under the surface acres they own, but only until production declines to the extent that it’s uneconomical to continue producing. The company only buys proved developed producing (PDP) acreage and never buys acreage at a premium to PDP PV-10.

BSD Analysis:
Mach’s moat is asset-light exposure to hydrocarbons without operating risk. Cash flow is tied to commodity prices and third-party activity, not capex execution. That simplicity cuts both ways—there’s no control lever when prices fall. Distribution sustainability depends on hedging and price discipline. Decline curves matter less than basin quality and operator behavior. Growth is incremental via acquisitions, which require valuation discipline. The bull case is supportive oil and gas prices with stable distributions. The bear case is price weakness compressing payouts. Mach is yield first, growth second—by design.

Pitch Summary:
Dutch Bros is a rare, compelling restaurant asset with a cult-like following and industry-leading unit economics. The company operates more than 1,100 locations across 25 states and generates approximately $2 million in average unit volumes with $500–600 thousand in EBITDA per store. Its small-footprint, drive-thru-only model dramatically reduces build costs, particularly as the company shifts toward build-to-suit locations that generate over 60% pre-tax returns on capital. Dutch Bros’ obsessive focus on culture, service, and differentiated beverages drives exceptional customer loyalty, with over 70% of transactions tied to its rewards program. Near-term upside catalysts include food rollout, mobile order-and-pay adoption, and accelerating unit growth toward management’s long-term goal of 7,000 locations.

BSD Analysis:
Dutch Bros’ moat is culture-led brand loyalty and a drive-thru model optimized for speed and frequency. Unit economics are attractive when traffic stays high and labor is tight. Expansion is the risk—culture scales slower than store counts. Pricing power exists, but value perception matters in a crowded beverage market. Competition isn’t Starbucks; it’s every caffeine option within five minutes. Real estate selection and staffing determine outcomes more than menu innovation. The bull case is disciplined unit growth with strong same-store sales. The bear case is brand dilution from overexpansion. Dutch Bros compounds if it protects culture as fiercely as growth.

Pitch Summary:
Mama’s Creations reported exceptional operating results for its third fiscal quarter ending October 31, delivering nearly flawless execution while integrating a large acquisition. Net sales grew 50% year over year to $47.3 million, materially ahead of expectations, driven by 18% organic growth and contributions from the Crown acquisition. Gross margin expanded to 23.6% versus consensus of 21.9%, while EBITDA margin reached 8% versus 6.1% expected. The company generated $3.8 million in adjusted EBITDA and $3.7 million in free cash flow during the quarter. Most notably, Mama’s won national distribution at both Target and Food Lion, with management expecting these two customers alone to contribute $25–30 million in annual sales once fully deployed.

BSD Analysis:
Mama’s moat is velocity and brand resonance in fresh prepared foods where shelf space is earned weekly. Retail relationships matter more than advertising—sell-through is the gatekeeper. Growth can be rapid, but margins are fragile when input costs swing. Scale improves procurement and logistics, yet execution mistakes show up immediately in spoilage and markdowns. Competition is relentless because barriers to entry are low. Pricing power exists briefly with strong velocity, then normalizes. The bull case is sustained distribution wins with disciplined cost control. The bear case is margin compression as growth outpaces operations. Mama’s wins by staying fresh—literally and operationally.

Pitch Summary:
PAR Technology had what can only be described as a disastrous 2025, with the stock down 50% on an overall decrease in software valuation multiples, especially payments and point-of-sale-adjacent stocks, and a deceleration of top-line growth. A significant driver of the deceleration was a delay in Burger King’s point-of-sale rollout because Burger King decided at the eleventh hour to add a PAR back-office software product to its point-of-sale deployment. This caused a delay in PAR’s annual recurring revenue growth in the first half of the year, leading to ARR growth of 15% exiting Q3 versus previously targeted 20%. The shortsightedness behind the market’s reaction cannot be overstated, as a PAR customer wanted to buy more product and the stock declined sharply. Meanwhile, the company has continued winning deals across its product portfolio, including Papa John’s, which will utilize several PAR products across its 3,200 U.S. locations, contributing $15 million in ARR when fully deployed. Since late 2020, PAR has grown ARR per share fourfold and gross profit fourfold, yet the market has not granted the company credit as management reinvests nearly all gross margin dollars into growth.

BSD Analysis:
PAR’s moat is workflow embedment across restaurant POS, payments, and back-office systems where ripping out software is operational pain. The shift from legacy hardware to subscription software improves revenue quality but exposes execution risk. Large QSR customers anchor scale, yet concentration raises bargaining pressure. Product breadth helps retention, but integration complexity can slow deployments. Competition is intense, with well-funded rivals courting the same enterprise logos. Pricing power exists through switching costs, not feature flash. The bull case is disciplined rollout and margin expansion as SaaS mix rises. The bear case is churn or delays that stall operating leverage. PAR compounds only if reliability beats ambition.

Pitch Summary:
We reinitiated a position in Bank Mandiri as rising funding costs rather than credit deterioration pressured earnings. The Indonesian banking sector is consolidated, and Mandiri stands to benefit from lower interest rates, government liquidity support, and renewed loan growth. At approximately 1.3x book value and an 8.5% dividend yield, the valuation is compelling relative to history.

BSD Analysis:
Bank Mandiri enters 2026 with a cautious but stable outlook as it navigates structural capital challenges and a projected compression in net interest margins. Analysts expect modest earnings growth of approximately 3% for the fiscal year, with performance constrained by rising credit costs and a more selective approach to loan disbursements. While the bank remains a dominant force in Indonesian corporate lending, its loan growth is expected to slow to around 9% as it prioritizes capital preservation over aggressive balance sheet expansion. The investment case is currently tempered by a bearish outlook on dividends, with some analysts assuming a lower 30% payout ratio to replenish capital buffers compared to historical averages. Despite these pressures, Mandiri maintains a superior profit margin relative to its domestic peers and continues to benefit from its leading digital banking infrastructure. The stock currently trades at a discount to the sector median, offering a potential value opportunity for investors focused on long-term asset quality. The key watchpoint for 2026 will be the bank's ability to normalize credit costs and navigate potential volatility in the Indonesian rupiah.

Pitch Summary:
We increased exposure to Hyundai Motor as it navigates electrification with a focus on profitability and capital efficiency. The company is prioritizing hybrids over pure EVs, aligning with current consumer demand trends, particularly in North America. Trading at roughly 6x forward earnings, Hyundai offers an attractive valuation for a market share gainer with improving product mix.

BSD Analysis:
Hyundai Motor Company enters 2026 at a critical juncture, navigating a slow-growth global auto market while aggressively defending its record 10.9% market share in the United States. For 2026, the company has targeted a revenue upper-end of 189.98 trillion won and an operating profit of 13.87 trillion won, supported by an upward revision in revenue growth expectations. A central pillar of the 2026 strategy is the "Hyundai Motor Way," which prioritizes a flexible production mix between hybrids and next-generation electric vehicles like the IONIQ 7 to meet diverse regional demands. Despite facing persistent headwinds from trade tariffs and rising promotional incentives, Hyundai maintains an industry-leading return on equity and a robust shareholder return policy targeting at least 35%. Management is significantly lifting capital spending by over 22% this year to accelerate investments in software-defined vehicles and hydrogen logistics. Analysts remain optimistic about the firm's premium product mix, though they note that margin targets of 6.3% to 7.3% reflect a more cautious pricing environment. The successful retirement of treasury shares in 2026 further underscores the board's commitment to enhancing long-term investor value.

Pitch Summary:
We initiated a position in Honeywell as the company simplifies its portfolio following the separation of its advanced materials business and the planned aerospace spin-off in 2026. This will leave a more focused industrial automation and building technologies company. We see opportunities for improved growth and profitability as portfolio discipline increases post-separation.

BSD Analysis:
Honeywell enters 2026 with a bold strategic reset, aiming to unlock significant shareholder value through the planned spin-off of its Aerospace Technologies business in the third quarter of the year. The company has set an ambitious 2026 sales target of $38.8 billion to $39.8 billion, representing 3% to 6% organic growth led by strong demand in commercial aviation and defense budgets. Management expects adjusted earnings per share to range between $10.35 and $10.65, supported by segment margin expansion driven by price execution and operational productivity. The upcoming transition will create a standalone aerospace leader focused on propulsion and avionics, while the remaining entity pivots toward industrial autonomy and digital transformation. Orders grew a robust 23% organically at the end of 2025, pushing the record backlog above $37 billion and providing high visibility for the current fiscal year. Analysts maintain a moderate buy consensus, citing the aerospace spin-off as a major catalyst for a potential valuation re-rating. While breakup-related costs create minor near-term noise, the firm’s $5 billion-plus free cash flow target underscores its resilient financial health.

Pitch Summary:
We initiated a position in International Workplace Group (IWG), a global provider of flexible coworking spaces. Our analysis suggests IWG has gained relative bargaining power against office landlords while traditional office occupancy remains subdued. The company is leveraging this power through a capital-light partnership model, which is expected to expand its managed footprint from 3,200 offices to over 6,500 by FY28.

BSD Analysis:
International Workplace Group (IWG) enters 2026 with an aggressive capital return program, extending its share buybacks after meeting its medium-term financial targets ahead of schedule. The company, which operates the Regus and Spaces brands, has issued bullish 2026 EBITDA guidance in the range of $585 million to $625 million, reflecting the sustained demand for hybrid workspace solutions. For 2026, the investment thesis is built on IWG’s "capital-light" growth strategy, where it expands its network through franchises and partnerships rather than owning real estate. This model is driving a forecast for significant earnings growth and an extraordinarily high return on equity as the business scales. While the commercial real estate sector broadly faces headwinds, the shift toward flexible, localized offices acts as a major tailwind for IWG’s dominant global platform. Investors are particularly encouraged by the firm’s improved cash flow conversion and its commitment to returning significant capital to shareholders.

Pitch Summary:
Salesforce could be one of the largest gainers of incremental AI spend outside of the hyperscalers thanks to its AI agents, Agentforce, which are interacting directly with customers to resolve service tasks previously executed by humans, such as processing refunds and updating sales records. The company is priced at a historical low valuation of 19x forward earnings, with earnings growing 15–20% per annum. We view this as an attractive entry point given the combination of accelerating AI monetization and valuation support.

BSD Analysis:
Salesforce’s moat is CRM entrenchment across sales, service, and marketing workflows. Switching costs are real, but not absolute—execution matters. Growth now depends more on upsell and pricing discipline than logo wins. AI adds narrative tailwinds, but monetization must be proven. Margin expansion has come from cost control, not acceleration. Competition is credible, especially at the edges. The bull case is durable enterprise spend recovery with steady cross-sell. The bear case is slower growth exposing valuation fragility. Salesforce compounds if restraint sticks.

Pitch Summary:
Antipodes reinitiated a position in Meta Platforms as ad impressions are growing at low double-digit rates, driven by AI. These improvements are translating into accelerating digital ad spend and revenue growth. The firm expects revenue growth of approximately 25% per annum, while the stock trades at around 22x forward earnings. This valuation is viewed as attractive relative to Meta’s growth profile and monetization potential. AI-driven engagement improvements have reinforced confidence in Meta’s long-term earnings trajectory.

BSD Analysis:
Meta’s moat is attention dominance across multiple platforms, reinforced by data and ad tooling. Engagement is resilient, but monetization depends on ad load discipline. AI improves targeting and efficiency, directly supporting margins. Reality Labs remains an expensive option, not a core business. Regulatory pressure is constant but hasn’t broken the ad machine. Capital discipline has improved, restoring investor trust. The bull case is sustained ad growth with AI-driven efficiency gains. The bear case is renewed spend creep chasing long-dated bets. Meta works when it remembers ads—not ambition—pay the bills.

Pitch Summary:
Antipodes increased exposure to Amazon as both its infrastructure and retail businesses continue to win market share while the valuation remains near a 20-year low at roughly 25x EV/EBIT. AWS growth re-accelerated to 20% year-on-year, the fastest pace in several years, driven by strong enterprise demand. On the retail side, Amazon maintains approximately 43% share of online sales and continues to grow. Additionally, the advertising business is accelerating, providing incremental margin upside. These dynamics support a favorable risk-reward profile at current valuation levels.

BSD Analysis:
Amazon’s moat is logistical scale and Prime lock-in that competitors can’t economically replicate. Retail margins are thin by choice, but complexity is permanent. AWS is the profit engine, yet growth normalization exposes valuation sensitivity. AI workloads help cloud relevance but demand heavy capex. Pricing power comes from convenience and reliability, not headline price cuts. Labor and regulation act as slow drags on returns. The bull case is AI-driven AWS acceleration plus retail efficiency gains. The bear case is capital intensity rising faster than profit growth. Amazon wins by being indispensable—even when margins look messy.

Pitch Summary:
AMD surged higher early in the quarter following a landmark agreement with AI research and deployment platform OpenAI, which included a deal to supply six gigawatts of AMD’s high-performance graphics chips. This significant agreement triggered a sharp earnings upgrade and materially improved revenue visibility. The company also benefited from a broader investor rotation into AI infrastructure as demand for compute accelerated. AMD’s expanding role in high-performance AI workloads reinforced its strategic positioning relative to competitors. These factors combined to drive strong share price performance during the quarter.

BSD Analysis:
AMD’s moat is execution as a credible alternative to entrenched incumbents in markets that hate single-vendor dependence. CPU share gains proved the playbook, but AI accelerators raise the bar on software ecosystems and scale. Winning sockets often requires pricing concessions, which caps margin upside. Reliance on external foundries concentrates supply-chain risk. Developer adoption matters as much as silicon quality. Gross margins look durable until competition tightens. The bull case is sustained AI and data-center penetration as customers diversify suppliers. The bear case is permanent second-best status in winner-take-most markets. AMD compounds when incumbents stumble—and stalls when they don’t.

Pitch Summary:
Alphabet finished higher, fuelled by strong quarterly earnings, with the company reporting US$100 billion in revenue for the first time. Earnings were highlighted by a 34% year-on-year increase in Google Cloud revenues, reflecting accelerating enterprise demand. Investors also took confidence from resilient growth in the core advertising business, which grew 13% year-on-year despite macro uncertainty. Broader positive sentiment toward artificial intelligence further supported the stock, as Alphabet’s scale and data advantages position it well in AI-driven services. These factors reinforced Alphabet’s status as a long-term compounder within global technology.

BSD Analysis:
Alphabet is still one of the most powerful cash machines ever built, but AI has turned monetization from autopilot into constant recalibration. Search dominance remains overwhelming, yet answer-first experiences threaten ad density even if users never leave. The real moat is distribution—Chrome, Android, YouTube, defaults—not model leadership. That distribution buys time, not immunity, to fix economics. Cloud adds strategic relevance but drags capital intensity and margin optics. Regulation acts like a slow, compounding tax on valuation. Buybacks smooth EPS but don’t solve strategic tension. The bull case is AI layered onto intent-driven ads without cannibalization. Alphabet wins only if it evolves without breaking the engine that funds everything else.