Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
J.P. Morgan is the largest and highest quality bank in the market.

BSD Analysis:
JPMorgan Chase reaffirmed its status as the "fortress bank" during its February 23, 2026, investor update, nudging its 2026 Net Interest Income (NII) outlook to $104.5 billion. CEO Jamie Dimon continues to prioritize long-term technological dominance, allocating a record $19.8 billion toward technology expenses this year—a 10% increase aimed at integrating AI and blockchain across its retail and investment banking platforms. Despite a cautious stance on the broader macro environment, the firm expects total adjusted expenses to remain stable at $105 billion. JPMorgan’s card service net charge-off rate remains resilient at 3.4%, indicating a healthy, though normalizing, consumer credit profile. With a massive $2 billion-per-week spending plan in focus, the bank is aggressively out-investing its peers to secure its leadership in a digitized financial landscape.

Pitch Summary:
The most extreme and large-scale health care fraud; deep corruption in every business aspect; fraudulent billing practices; dependent on a handful of transplant surgeons; high-volume users are under federal and state investigations; the company is operating an organ trafficking scheme;

BSD Analysis:
TransMedics develops organ-care systems for transplantation. The short thesis underscores limited TAM relative to valuation, heavy reliance on hospital adoption, and reimbursement risk. While clinical data is strong, execution risk remains in scaling across heart, lung, and liver programs. Ongoing operating losses and reliance on capital raises are red flags, particularly given uncertain payer adoption timelines. Dilution and slower-than-expected market penetration could weigh on returns.

Pitch Summary:
Elevance Health presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its dominant market position and significant scale advantages in the U.S. healthcare insurance industry. Despite recent challenges with Medicaid costs, the stock is trading at a favorable valuation of 11.5x trailing earnings, compared to its historical average of 15x. The company's ability to adjust pricing quickly in response to medical cost changes, combined with its strong brand reputation, supports its competitive moat. Furthermore, Elevance's strategic capital allocation, including substantial share repurchases and acquisitions, enhances shareholder value.

BSD Analysis:
Elevance Health's financial performance is robust, with a 10-year CAGR of 13.95% in earnings and 12.96% in dividends, indicating strong growth potential. The company's strategic use of retained earnings, with 83% reinvested over the past five years, has been directed towards marketable securities, share buybacks, and acquisitions, demonstrating prudent capital management. Its balance sheet is solid, with $7.8 billion in cash and $29 billion in fixed-maturity securities, supporting its long-term stability. The healthcare sector's necessity and limited viable substitutes further reinforce Elevance's market position. Notably, Brave Warrior's significant and growing stake in Elevance underscores institutional confidence in the company's prospects. Given these factors, Elevance Health is well-positioned to deliver attractive returns, especially in a market environment where healthcare remains a critical and growing segment of the economy.

Pitch Summary:
Accounting manipulations; loss of key customers; low ROIC; weak cash flow generation; broken business model; insider cash out; near-term downside catalyst;

BSD Analysis:
Premier Inc. provides group purchasing and data analytics for hospitals. The bear thesis emphasizes structural headwinds in the GPO model, contract renewal pressure, and slower SaaS adoption. Hospitals increasingly push back on fee structures, while budget stress reduces appetite for premium analytics solutions. Competition from larger IT vendors limits pricing power. With declining visibility into growth and potential revenue erosion from expiring contracts, valuation risk remains elevated.

Pitch Summary:
Aecon Group is poised for an earnings inflection as it completes legacy projects that have previously hindered profitability. Despite a significant share price increase in 2024, the company remains undervalued, trading at a low multiple compared to peers.

BSD Analysis:
Aecon Group's valuation at 6x normalized 2024E EBITDA is attractive compared to peer multiples of 10x or more. The completion of legacy projects is expected to enhance profitability, providing a catalyst for further share price appreciation. The company's focus on infrastructure positions it well to benefit from increased government spending in this sector. Investors should consider the potential for further upside as Aecon continues to execute on its project pipeline and improve its financial metrics.

Pitch Summary:
Overvalued (trading x8 times higher multiples); $4.8bil junk-rated net debt; declining business; insiders constantly cashing out; potential insolvency risk; the main purchasing party is scaling back from Jan 2025; unnamed 'mystery' buyer quitely emerged; risky subprime loans; sham deals; undisclosed SEC investigation;

BSD Analysis:
Carvana is an online used-car retailer. Bears argue that debt overhang, cyclicality in used-car pricing, and narrow gross margins make the equity fragile. While liquidity was shored up by debt exchanges, execution risk remains in achieving profitability. Macroeconomic headwinds—rising interest rates, tighter auto credit, and weakening consumer demand—threaten volumes and per-unit economics. Shorts see the valuation as detached from fundamental risks.

Pitch Summary:
Paywalled (Sezzle’s growth and profitability come in part from enabling fraud, consumer scams, and illegal businesses. For example, The Bear Cave believes Sezzle is a leading payment platform for prescription drugs illegally flowing into the United States.) Update 1/21/25 - The company removed merchants after the report.

BSD Analysis:
Sezzle operates as a BNPL (Buy Now, Pay Later) provider. The short thesis highlights credit risk from subprime exposure, rising regulatory scrutiny, and unsustainable customer acquisition costs. Larger competitors (Affirm, Afterpay, Klarna) dominate market share, and Sezzle’s scale disadvantages make profitability elusive. With credit cycles tightening, default rates could impair economics further.

Pitch Summary:
@thesherlockview presents Abaxx Technologies as a financial software and market infrastructure company building a new, physically settled commodity futures exchange and clearinghouse centered on LNG and energy-transition metals. The core of the thesis is that Abaxx’s ID++ digital-identity stack and purpose-built exchange can create better benchmarks and more efficient, physically settled contracts than incumbent, largely financially settled offerings like JKM. The author argues that LNG is a structural growth market and that a physically settled LNG benchmark based in neutral, well-regulated Singapore could capture meaningful volume, supporting a 10x upside case on the LNG contract alone by 2030. On top of LNG, Abaxx is rolling out physically delivered Nickel Sulphate and Lithium Carbonate contracts, where no true benchmark exists today, and backs into highly bullish revenue and valuation scenarios (5x+ from nickel alone, with lithium as additional optionality). The thread emphasizes that Abaxx has engaged extensively with industry participants to design these contracts, has secured strategic trading partners, and is targeting regulatory equivalence in key jurisdictions (UK, US) to accelerate onboarding. A further kicker is a planned gold contract and spot market, plus broader ID++/digital-title applications that could eventually open up banking and collateralization opportunities. Overall, the pitch frames Abaxx as a rare “new exchange” story with multiple shots on goal where even partial success in a few benchmark contracts could justify many times the current valuation.

BSD Analysis:
Abaxx is effectively trying to build a vertically integrated market-infrastructure stack (software + exchange + clearing + identity) in a space where network effects, trust, and regulatory approvals create both high barriers to entry and potentially very durable moats. Historically, new benchmark futures (e.g., WTI, Brent, Henry Hub) have been extraordinary profit pools, but they are also rare, and displacing entrenched benchmarks or creating new ones typically requires years of volume-building and deep industry buy-in. The strategy to focus on physically settled contracts in LNG and battery metals directly attacks pain points around basis risk and physical delivery, which is a rational wedge against financially settled incumbents like JKM and some of CME/ICE’s offerings. However, physical settlement dramatically increases operational, credit, and logistical complexity, and Abaxx will need impeccable risk management and capital to avoid missteps as volumes ramp. The bull math in the pitch is explicitly aggressive, assuming high market shares and healthy per-contract economics; more conservative penetration and slower adoption would shrink the implied multi-bagger upside considerably. Competition risk is real: if Abaxx’s growth starts to validate the opportunity, larger exchanges could respond with copycat contracts and use their distribution and margin offsets to pull volume back. That said, if Abaxx can entrench itself early in LNG and at least one battery-metal benchmark, the combination of regulatory licenses, clearing memberships, and liquidity could create a defensible niche with significant operating leverage. From a buy-side lens, this is a classic high-uncertainty, high-upside market-structure bet where sizing and entry price matter as much as belief in the long-term thesis.

Actual Post Content:
Abaxx Technologies: Revolutionizing Commodity Markets and the Banking Industry Abaxx Technologies is redefining financial technology with a focus on commodities and digital identities. It has launched the first custom-built clearinghouse and exchange in over a decade, integrating its proprietary ID++ technology into its core. This innovation not only modernizes an aging commodities market but also introduces groundbreaking privacy solutions, paving the way for new products not currently possible. The clearinghouse and exchange form the foundation of Abaxx's strategy, unlocking substantial growth opportunities. Their success alone could yield remarkable returns, potentially multiplying investments many times over. Revenue from these ventures will be reinvested into technological innovation, propelling Abaxx from a promising 10x return opportunity to a transformative force with potential returns of 100x or even 200x. This report will focus primarily on the story of Abaxx and what it is trying to solve along with the potential of it. It is meant to be an overview of the business. It won’t be focusing on things such as technical analysis but a quick overview of the financials will be presented to give an understanding of possible future dilution expected. Understanding Futures Contracts To fully appreciate Abaxx’s value proposition, it's helpful to understand the basics of futures contracts, their types, and their economic impact. This context will highlight the significance of Abaxx’s initial offering. If you’re already familiar with these concepts, feel free to skip this section. What is a futures contract? A simple futures contract works like this: Imagine you agree with a pizza shop today to buy a pizza next Friday for $10, no matter what the price of pizza is on that day. This agreement locks in the price for both of you—you’re protected if pizza prices rise, and the shop is protected if prices fall. When Friday arrives, if the price of pizza is $12, you still only pay $10, saving money. If the price drops to $8, you still pay $10, and the shop benefits. The futures contract is simply a deal to fix the price of something in the future, helping both sides manage price uncertainty. Managing this price uncertainty is important if you are about to invest billions in a new energy project. You need to lock in a certain price to ensure you do not risk bankruptcy if the price of that energy drops too low. You limit your upside but you protect your downside. This is crucial for the global economy as it allows companies to properly account for the risk of new energy projects. What’s the difference between financially settled and physically settled contracts? You are hungry and want to order takeout so you order your favorite pizza online at this new financially settled pizza store at a 10% discount. When you finally get there to pick it up, they give you the cash value for the pizza you bought but no actual pizza. Dissappointed and hungry you go next door to the physically settled pizza store to buy that pizza. Now you are upset that you wasted your time with the financially settled pizza. Imagine instead you are an energy firm trying to provide electricity to millions. The stakes are higher. Failure to secure physical supply of LNG is not an option. Will you choose financially settled or physically settled LNG? Financially settled contracts are inferior when compared to physically settled contracts. The only benefit is that they are easier to create which explains why they are the go to method for ICE and CME. They likely find it too difficult to bother with physically settled contracts leaving commodity producers unhappy with the current status quo. They still do it this day with the recent launch of CME’s Spodumene futures contract which is financially settled. Just how valuable are these futures contracts? Futures contracts are the holy grail in finance. Remember those tickers that flash across the screen on TV when everyone is quoting the price of oil? Those are futures contract. The WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil generates 320 million USD per year. Brent Crude Oil generates 293 million USD per year, and Henry Hub generates 113 million USD per year. Given that these contracts are high margin (60-70%), we can apply a multiple of 20x to it. This means WTI is worth around 6 billion USD, Brent is also worth around 6 billion USD and Henry Hub is worth around 2 billion USD. These are considered benchmark contracts through which the world’s energy is traded and are physically settled. Abaxx’s Strategic Location Singapore is the leading global financial hub in the world. It has a highly respected regulatory environment that is seen as equal throughout the world. Abaxx will soon get equivalency starting January 1st, 2025 in England and it has applied for equivalency status via FBOT with the CFTC in the USA. Equivalency status allows companies in the respective country to trade and clear directly with Abaxx in Singapore. This helps improve the speed at which new companies can connect and trade through Abaxx. Singapore is also seen as neutral to both western nations like USA and China. This is important to bridge the gap in trading between the two nations. Abaxx Exchange is located in Capital Tower in Singapore which is home to several prominent companies such as Bytedance, founder of Tiktok. It is also home to GIC Private Limited which is a Singapore sovereign wealth fund. Abaxx has also recently launched offices in Shanghai and Hong Kong. I suspect this move is in relation to both their Nickel Sulphate Contract, Lithium Carbonate Contract, and their Gold Contract. Unmet Demand Abaxx is starting by targeting contracts that are unmet by the current industry due to laziness and difficulty. Abaxx built and designed their Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) contract with the help from over 100 industry participants. This allows their LNG contract to be adopted as benchmark status as it will meet the demand and specifications desired by industry. Currently the only liquid LNG contract is JKM, however this is financially settled compared to Abaxx’s physically settled contract. Abaxx is also tackling Nickel Sulphate and Lithium Carbonate which are two other commodities in the energy transition that do not have physically settled futures contract. JKM - Abaxx JKM is the financially settled contract for LNG based out of Japan. It is not physically settled like Abaxx’s LNG contract. Bold prediction: Abaxx will take over JKM volume entirely and make it obsolete within 2 years. It will be slow at first but eventually it will hit a inflection point causing all LNG trading to begin flowing through Abaxx instead of JKM. This is a bold claim but not unreasonable. Let’s go back to the pizza example. You are hungry for pizza and need physical delivery to feed an upcoming party. There are two ways to get pizza: 1. The first method requires you to get the pizza by getting a bunch of lawyers, paying lawyers fees and making a deal with a pizza place. This could take weeks. Two days later, a bunch of people cancel and you need less pizza. So you hire a bunch of lawyers, pay a bunch of fees and sell the pizza to someone else. On the side you have a bunch of people betting on how much you the price of that pizza will be. Those people are using JKM. Even wilder is that there is another group of people pricing the pizza based on a percentage of the cost of chicken. Insane right? But it happens. In many instances LNG is priced as a percentage of oil. Two are energy sources but require entirely different supply chains. 2. A new pizza store opens thats allows you to go online (Abaxx) and place an order for a pizza. Two days later, a bunch of people cancel and so you go online again and with the click of a button you sell some of the pizza. Maybe someone thinks that pizza order will be worth a lot less because they see more people cancelling in the coming days or maybe more people will get invited to the party and there is a pizza shortage. In any case, all trading is done through Abaxx and no longer JKM and expensive lawyers. Which method will you choose? Growth of LNG Due to its low carbon emissions, LNG is being seen as the transition fuel to alternatives such as coal and oil as it emits significantly less CO2 emissions. It compliments renewable energy like solar and wind by being able to supply quick energy when these energy sources begin to lag. The role of LNG will only grow in this nature as it becomes more adopted and accepted globally. Let’s look at what the current spot market looks like for LNG. We are not gonna use possible export capacity (which continues to grow) but rather how much is currently being imported. NGI shows the spot market accounts for 190 Bcm per year. To account for this volume 670,979 contracts from abaxx would be required. If we assume each contract is traded 50x (a normal number for a liquid futures contract) and Abaxx gets $10 per trade, that results in roughly 335 million per year for Abaxx Exchange. Abaxx Exchange will not get 100% of the market but benchmark status should return around 50%. For Abaxx technologies which should own around 80% of the exchange, this would earn roughly 134 million per year based on this years demand. By 2030 this volume would only grow. Applying a 20x multiple to this would be 2.68 billion making it essentially a 10x from here. This does not account for the secondary markets suchs as options which would only add to the revenue growth. Abaxx becoming benchmark status is a strong probability considering the existing methods out there such as JKM do not fully capture demands of the market who want to physically trade LNG. If someone were to doubt these numbers, Cannacord’s Initiation Report on Abaxx also predicts $134 million in revenue assuming 20% market penetration however it also accounts for revenue in the secondary market and is slightly more conservative. Let’s start keeping score of the potential here with a score card Score Card: 10x potential on Abaxx with it’s LNG contract alone alone by 2030. Nickel Contract Abaxx recently announced the launch of its physically delivered Nickel Sulphate contract with physical delivery in Singapore. It will start trading on January 10th, 2025. They have secured the world’s largest nickel sulfate player in support of the contract along with some of the word’s largest commodity trading firms. Some of who are key strategic investors in the exchange such as Traxys. Nickel Sulphate is a key ingredient in the production of EV batteries and is crucial for electrification. The current production in 2024 is around 500 kTs. It is expected to grow to around 1000 kTs by 2030. Let’s do some fun math assuming Abaxx captures 30% market share and grows to 80% market share in 2030 as their contract hits benchmark status: Assumptions: Each contract is traded 50 times and Abaxx charges $10 per trade. 800,000 Tons / 5 Tons Per Contract * 50 * $10 per trade contract * 80% ownership of exchange = $64 million USD per year. At a 20x valuation this would be worth 1.3 billion USD or roughly a 5x for Abaxx on successful contract adoption. To be clear these are very bullish scenarios however not unprecedented given there is no benchmark contract for Nickel Sulphate and Abaxx would be the first to do so with large industry support. I indicated 80% of market share here because the market is much smaller and easier to gain a higher percentage of the trades. Nickel doesn’t have any strong competing methods to price the nickel compared to LNG so for that reason one can reasonably suggest a higher percentage. Cannacord estimates around 20% market share and $18.5M in revenue for a more conservative estimation. Score Card: 15x potential by 2030 with LNG and Nickel Sulphate Lithium Carbonate Contract Abaxx is also set to announce the Lithium Carbonate contract and launch along with the Nickel Sulphate contract. Without the contract details, it’s hard to estimate the size and value that it could generate for Abaxx. However it is a essential commodity in the electrification of the world that will drive further value to Abaxx through onboard of firms who wish to use and trade the Lithium Carbonate Contract. If you assume they get similar values to their Nickel Sulphate contract, then it’s possible we see another 5x here bringing the score card to 20x. I will not include that however without seeing the contract specifications. Gold Contract and Speculation Abaxx is also set to launch a Gold Futures contract and a Gold Spot market using the 1kg size with Singapore delivery. This allows further liquidity as it is a smaller and offers the ability to have more robust trading as it allows smaller trades. Abaxx recently launched an office in Shanghai. The CEO Josh Crumb posted on X in response:

URL: https://x.com/thesherlockview/status/1874485127486574615

Pitch Summary:
The situation surrounding CompuGroup was somewhat different. Here, too, an initial small position existed as the company shocked markets once again with a profit warning in July. The bare financial figures were one thing, but overall, the company was struggling with a widespread loss of confidence at the time. Starting with the controversial political activities of its founder and ranging from various press articles about the company’s culture and product deficiencies, through to the legal structure of the company as a “Kommanditgesellschaft auf Aktien – KGaA” with few rights for minority shareholders. From a peak of over EUR 80 per share in 2021, the value fell to below EUR 15 per share in the wake of the warning. A remarkable development for a software company with relatively stable sales. From our point of view, however, it was important to put this into perspective. With an EV/EBITDA multiple of just 7, once adjusted for capitalisations, the valuation was so low that we suspected a certain bottom. On the other hand, we have, on an almost daily basis, observed considerable interest in precisely this type of software assets from private equity investors. The transaction prices then reported were at a consistently and considerably higher level. From our perspective, this once again presented an attractive opportunity to enter in a situation with high optionality and a presumed manageable risk. Even partial sales of peripheral activities at good prices, combined with share buybacks, would probably have led to attractive increases in the share price. As a result, a significant portfolio weighting of around 10% was recommended.

BSD Analysis:
CompuGroup Medical is a central player in the digitization of European healthcare, providing essential software to doctors, pharmacies, and hospitals. Entering 2026, the company is shifting from a period of heavy R&D toward margin expansion, as recurring revenue from its cloud-based "G3" platform now accounts for over 70 percent of total sales.While analyst coverage remains selective, the structural tailwind from Germany’s digital health mandates and the rollout of the e-prescription ecosystem provides high visibility into future cash flows. Management is focused on integrating AI diagnostics into its physician software to drive higher average revenue per user (ARPU) while maintaining a disciplined approach to bolt-on acquisitions. For investors, CompuGroup offers a defensive, high-moat exposure to the essential healthcare IT infrastructure of the Eurozone.

Pitch Summary:
Jost Werke SE is a leading global manufacturer and supplier of safety-relevant systems for the commercial vehicle industry. The company’s 4,500 employees produce among others fifth wheel couplings, semi-trailer landing gear and axle mounts. An obviously cyclical industrial stock, the company’s shares are quickly sidelined. Wrongly so, in our opinion. The business model is asset-light and generates strong cash flows. Moreover, the company has adapted well to the structurally volatile market environment by implementing a production structure that is flexible to the maximum degree. Even in a somewhat more challenging year such as 2024, the company was able to smoothly manage sales fluctuations. Despite a decline in sales in the region of -15%, the EBIT margin is expected to remain solid at between 10-11%. Given its currently rather weaker earnings power, the EV/EBIT valuation is still in the region of 7. We were also impressed by a recent acquisition made by the company. Hyva, a global leader in the hydraulic cylinder market, was acquired at the currently favourable valuations of such niche industrial players. In addition to a small dividend, the free cash flow is being put to highly attractive use. Who knows, perhaps the perception of Jost will also change as profitability increases. We are already half-jokingly talking internally about Jost Werke being a serial acquirer for niche industrial players!

BSD Analysis:
JOST’s moat is specification lock-in across truck and trailer components where reliability trumps price. Once OEMs design in fifth-wheel couplings or safety systems, switching is operationally disruptive and reputationally risky. That embeddedness creates steady aftermarket revenue, even when new vehicle cycles soften. Growth, however, is tied directly to commercial vehicle production—brutally cyclical and macro-sensitive. Pricing power exists in safety-critical components, but OEM bargaining remains real. Acquisitions broaden the portfolio, yet integration discipline is essential to protect margins. Electrification and autonomy offer incremental content upside rather than transformational change. The bull case is fleet renewal and infrastructure investment driving volume recovery. JOST compounds through cycles—when execution stays tight and leverage stays contained.

Pitch Summary:
Automatic Data Processing: Automatic Data Processing is the leading provider for payroll and HR services, and it boasts impressive performance indicators. The company's strong market position is confirmed by annual sales of USD 19.5 billion, a million loyal customers and excellent retention rates of over 92%. The robust financial situation is reflected in revenue growth of 7.1% and an 11% increase in profits in the first quarter of 2025. Particularly attractive for investors: 25 years of steadily rising dividends, a balance sheet without net indebtedness and continuous investments in future-oriented technologies.

BSD Analysis:
ADP reported a stellar Q2 2026, surpassing both EPS and revenue expectations with an 11% rise in adjusted earnings to $2.62 per share. The company has successfully raised its consolidated revenue growth outlook to 6%, driven by record-high levels of client satisfaction and broad-based strength in its international and enterprise segments. While the stock experienced a minor 3% dip following the report due to "muted hiring" concerns, management remains optimistic, citing the accelerating adoption of its Workforce Now Next Gen and Lyric HCM platforms. ADP remains a quintessential "compounder" for any buyside portfolio, offering high-margin recurring revenue and a best-in-class moat in human capital management.

Pitch Summary:
Vertex Pharmaceuticals has released disappointing data on its new pain relief medication, which is in clinical trials. It is supposed to become a non-addictive alternative to opioids. Even though the main objective of the study was achieved initially, the effect of the medication was comparable to the placebo arm of the study. This raises questions about the effectiveness of the medication in subsequent studies. Vertex now wants to improve the study design to counteract a strong placebo effect.

BSD Analysis:
Vertex Pharmaceuticals continues to be the undisputed leader in the cystic fibrosis (CF) market while successfully expanding its reach into pain management and gene therapy. In early 2026, Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to "Outperform," with an average one-year price target of $532.50, suggesting a robust 8.35% upside from current levels. The company's financial model is exceptionally strong, maintaining bullish fund sentiment and a put/call ratio of 0.86. Despite a projected temporary decrease in annual revenue as it transitions its pipeline, Vertex’s projected non-GAAP EPS of 19.52 and dominant ownership by institutional titans like Capital World and Vanguard provide a fortress-like floor for long-term investors.

Pitch Summary:
With the “Willow” quantum chip, Alphabet achieved a technological milestone at the end of 2024 - this also had a positive effect on the share price. The possibly record-breaking processing performance of the chip convinced investors of the group’s reinvigorated innovative power, particularly considering the intensely competitive AI market with competitors such as OpenAI or Meta.

BSD Analysis:
Alphabet remains one of the most powerful cash engines ever built, but AI has turned search economics into an active experiment. Query dominance holds, yet answer-first interfaces threaten ad density over time. The real moat is distribution—Chrome, Android, YouTube, defaults—not leaderboard models. That distribution buys time, not immunity. Cloud adds strategic relevance while increasing capital intensity. Regulation functions as a slow structural tax on valuation. Buybacks smooth EPS but don’t resolve transition risk. The bull case is AI layered onto intent-driven ads without cannibalization. Alphabet wins only if it upgrades the engine without breaking it.

Pitch Summary:
The share price is driven not just by high growth rates (30-40% in the US) but also by the hopeful anticipation of large projects from the technology-friendly Trump government. Together with Anduril, Palantir wants to compete for next-generation military contracts. The company has a very high valuation, but there seems to be little to stop the share price from rising higher.

BSD Analysis:
Palantir’s moat is workflow embedment in mission-critical environments where failure is unacceptable. Once Gotham or Foundry is wired into operations, ripping it out is politically and operationally risky. Government contracts provide durability but also cap growth optics. Commercial expansion is improving, yet scalability beyond bespoke deployments remains the test. Pricing power exists when value is existential; it weakens in standard enterprise pilots. Profitability has improved, but valuation assumes repeatable AI monetization at scale. Culture and narrative amplify volatility. The bull case is standardized AI platform adoption across industries. Palantir compounds only if it transitions from hero projects to infrastructure.

Pitch Summary:
In the fourth quarter of the year, we made a new investment in Just Eat Takeaway, one of the world's leading companies in food delivery, with a presence in key markets across Europe and North America. After several years of aggressive growth during which profitability had been sacrificed, the company embarked on a restructuring process and divested from several markets where it was not profitable (such as the United States and the United Kingdom). This process had begun to show results, with significant improvements in profitability and debt reduction in recent years. However, this progress was not reflected in the company’s stock price, which was trading at an attractive valuation below 7x EV/EBITDA. Shortly after we initiated our position, Just Eat announced the sale of its U.S. division, where the business had been unprofitable. Following this announcement, the stock experienced a revaluation of more than 30% within a few days, prompting us to sell our position. Since the position was still in the process of being built, it had not yet reached its target size.

BSD Analysis:
Just Eat Takeaway is prioritizing margin restoration over volume growth in 2026, successfully delivering a modest operating profit despite stagnant order volumes in saturated European markets. The company has largely moved past the heavy impairment losses associated with its Grubhub acquisition, focusing instead on its market-leading positions in Germany, the UK, and the Netherlands. Management is projecting adjusted EBITDA of approximately €225 million for the year, as delivery operations have become nearly 25% more profitable through logistics optimization and higher average order values. While the search for a Grubhub buyer continues to linger, the firm’s "Year of Recovery" has successfully stabilized its balance sheet against rising interest rates. For investors, Just Eat offers a deep-value play on the consolidation of the global food delivery sector, with significant potential for valuation re-rating once its U.S. exit is finalized.

Pitch Summary:
Next plc has also taken a more proactive approach, as despite its prominence in the UK retail sector, it has been one of the main counter-positioning businesses over the last ten years. It has embraced e-commerce, investing significantly in this area over recent years. This impacted its retail store sales in the short-term, but the investment created a more resilient business. By investing in its online platform and logistics, Next has managed to integrate digital sales with its physical stores, mitigating the threat posed by online competitors, who operate without the overheads associated with brick-and-mortar locations. Indeed, it has taken this further through the creation of a multi-channel shopping experience; and it is still the case that the majority of its returns bought online are taken back to stores—for the customer’s convenience.

BSD Analysis:
The manager sees Next as a rare traditional retailer that successfully counter-positioned against online-only rivals by building a sophisticated, integrated omni-channel platform. Heavy early investment in logistics and technology temporarily depressed store metrics but ultimately created a structurally advantaged, cash-generative model. Next’s strong balance sheet, disciplined inventory management, and robust free cash flow underpin ongoing shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. Valuation has periodically lagged its operational quality, offering entry points when sentiment toward UK retail weakens. Key catalysts include continued growth of its platform services, improved consumer confidence, and further efficiency gains in fulfilment and returns.

Pitch Summary:
As a major consumer goods company, Unilever has encountered competition from direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands that leverage online platforms to reach customers directly. This is called ‘disintermediation’, where the traditional distribution platform, of say a supermarket, is replaced with internet orders sent directly to the customer. These DTC brands often offer personalised products and experiences, bypassing traditional retail channels. Unilever has responded by acquiring several DTC brands to adapt to this change, acknowledging the impact of counter-positioning in the consumer goods sector. Along with our other consumer goods companies, like Colgate-Palmolive and Reckitt, Unilever have also invested heavily in digital marketing. Unlike Blockbuster, they don’t have their heads buried in the sand and they are aware of the competitive threats.

BSD Analysis:
Unilever is framed as an incumbent that is actively adapting to digital disruption through acquisitions and stronger digital and DTC capabilities, rather than defending legacy channels. Its diversified portfolio across beauty, personal care, home care, and foods provides resilience and cash generation to fund these strategic pivots. While top-line growth has been modest in recent years, pricing power and productivity initiatives have supported margin recovery. The stock often trades at a reasonable valuation relative to staples peers, with a solid dividend yield and scope for buybacks enhancing total return. Success will depend on execution in premium segments and DTC, but the balance sheet and brand portfolio provide a solid foundation.

Pitch Summary:
The classic case of Counter-positioning is Netflix's disruption of Blockbuster. In most cases a dominant incumbent will be able to fight off the advances of a new, smaller business. The fact that some disruptors are successful makes this ‘Power’ all the more interesting. Netflix introduced an innovative subscription-based DVD rental service in 1999. This model offered several appealing features. Firstly, no late fees were charged by Netflix—unlike Blockbuster who made a lot of revenues charging customers for returning rentals late to the store. Secondly, Netflix allowed customers to keep DVDs for as long as they wanted without accruing penalties. Thirdly, Netflix delivered DVDs directly to customers' homes, eliminating the need to visit physical stores. This helped with better inventory control and greater choice—Netflix offered a much larger catalogue of DVDs compared to the limited shelf space of Blockbuster stores. It is easy to look back in hindsight and criticise the Blockbuster management team, but it’s clear Netflix adapted better to changing technology (Video to DVD) as well as providing a better service for customers. Despite all this, following the bursting of the tech bubble, in 2000, Netflix founders Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph offered to sell Netflix to Blockbuster for $50 million. At the time, Netflix was struggling financially and the bursting of the dot-com bubble had made it much harder for companies to secure funding. Blockbuster’s decision to decline this offer is now widely regarded as a critical missed opportunity, especially as Netflix went on to disrupt the home entertainment industry. As of January 2025, Netflix's market capitalisation exceeds $350bn, while Blockbuster filed for bankruptcy in 2010.

BSD Analysis:
Netflix exemplifies counter-positioning by embracing a subscription, direct-to-consumer model and then pivoting aggressively into streaming and original content, leaving legacy distributors behind. Its scale gives it substantial content-spend firepower, data advantages, and global reach, which underpin a durable competitive moat despite rising competition. While growth has matured, Netflix still generates healthy revenue expansion and expanding operating margins, with free cash flow inflecting positively as content amortization normalizes. The stock often trades at a premium multiple relative to traditional media, reflecting its superior growth and asset-light distribution economics. Key risks include saturation in developed markets, content hit-dependence, and regulatory scrutiny, but its strong brand and pricing power provide flexibility.

Pitch Summary:
McKesson, and its direct competitor Cencora, both had a very good operating year, growing EPS 10-15% with an outlook for more of the same in FY25. Extreme share price volatility midyear allowed us to initiate a position in Cencora alongside McKesson. The business is very similar and #2 in market share to McKesson in US drug distribution. US drug distributors are truly an oligopoly of just three companies but one weakness in the model is that customer concentration is high. The biggest risk is therefore a loss of contract for distributors. We believe that McKesson and Cencora are also meaningfully better than Cardinal Health, the third competitor, so if Cencora were to lose a large client it would highly likely be to McKesson and vice versa. Hence owning two shares in this attractive space should result in additional diversification for shareholders. The US prescription market should continue to grow in real terms at 1% driven by new drugs (GLPs) and, with some inflation, the underlying market should compound at 4-6%. Cencora and McKesson have made investments to grow in the more promising parts of healthcare distribution, that is biosimilars and cancer related drugs, which should propel their growth above the market, towards 6-7% per year. On top of this, margins remain at cyclical lows and could see a meaningful improvement and the companies are committed to material 5% annual share buybacks. All together, we could see these two companies compound their earnings at a 14-15% rate for a very long time to come which, from a starting valuation of 14-15x earnings and almost no cyclicality, offers potential for substantial gains ahead.

BSD Analysis:
Cencora is a high-quality partner to McKesson in the concentrated U.S. drug distribution oligopoly, with similar long-term economics but somewhat higher leverage to specialty and international growth. The company has been repositioning toward higher-margin oncology, biosimilars and services, which should gradually lift profitability and reduce reliance on any single large customer. As with McKesson, modest underlying market growth, operating leverage from higher-value segments and disciplined buybacks can drive mid-teens EPS compounding over time. Valuation remains reasonable for a business with resilient cash flows and limited cyclicality, especially given the potential for margin normalisation from currently depressed levels. We see a favourable risk/reward, acknowledging that contract retention and regulatory scrutiny are ongoing areas to monitor.

Pitch Summary:
United Health was a new position added during the fourth quarter. United Health provides health insurance to companies and individuals, claims management services and care delivery through its subsidiary Optum Health. It benefits from the secular trends of ageing demographics in the US, the expansion of treatment offerings and the trend towards the outsourcing of US government health programs to companies such as United who can offer greater value to members, as well as savings to the government. We expect all three to continue. The sector has underperformed for two years, principally due to higher than forecast treatment utilisation following the bounce back of procedures delayed by COVID-19. This trend saw margins contract materially, especially for United Health’s weaker competitors. Over the coming two years government contracts will reprice13 while capacity will be withdrawn from the industry leading to market share growth and normalising margins at United Healthcare, given their position as the largest and lowest cost provider. Moreover, we observe that utilisation has been returning toward trend since the summer, implying lower future treatment costs for the company. Over the longer term, United Healthcare is uniquely positioned to benefit from the transition to value-based care (VBC) through its Optum Health care provision business. VBC prioritises earlier intervention and the use of more preventative measures to deliver better health outcomes in lower cost settings, delivering savings to members and the government. Ultimately, VBC will be the key to delivering more effective and affordable healthcare in the US.

BSD Analysis:
UnitedHealth is the best-positioned integrated healthcare player in the U.S., with scale advantages in insurance, data and care delivery that underpin durable mid-teens earnings growth. Near-term margin pressure from elevated utilisation should fade as contracts reprice and the industry rationalises capacity, allowing profitability to normalise from a position of strength. Optum’s analytics, pharmacy benefit and care-delivery platforms give UnitedHealth a central role in the shift to value-based care, where managing total cost of care is rewarded. The balance sheet is robust and cash conversion strong, supporting continued dividends, buybacks and bolt-on acquisitions that deepen the ecosystem. Political and regulatory risk is ever-present, but the company’s ability to demonstrate cost savings to payers and government should keep it at the heart of U.S. healthcare reform.