Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Moberg Pharma's MOB-015, branded as Terclara, is positioned to be a superior treatment for toenail fungus compared to existing topical and oral treatments. While oral terbinafine has a higher complete cure rate, it comes with significant side effects, making MOB-015 a safer alternative. The ongoing phase three trial aims to improve the complete cure rate by adjusting the dosage, with results expected in Q1 2025. If successful, MOB-015 could capture significant market share from existing treatments like Jublia and oral terbinafine. Moberg estimates the revenue potential for MOB-015 to be between USD $250-500M, with significant upside potential if market share and market size estimates are conservative.

BSD Analysis:
Moberg Pharma's MOB-015 has shown promising results in treating toenail fungus, with a competitive advantage over existing treatments due to its safety profile. The phase three trial's outcome will be a critical catalyst, potentially enhancing the drug's marketability by improving the complete cure rate. The company's conservative revenue estimates suggest substantial upside potential, especially in markets like Canada and the USA, where the drug could dominate. However, risks include potential delays in roll-out, approval, and manufacturing challenges, as well as the impact of Jublia's patent expiration. Investors should weigh these risks against the potential for significant returns, considering the speculative nature of the investment.

Pitch Summary:
Simply Better Brands is undergoing a transformation by shedding its unprofitable cannabis brand, PureKana, and focusing on its profitable segment, Trubar. Trubar, a vegan protein bar brand, is experiencing rapid growth and is projected to achieve $45M in sales for 2024. The company is strategically positioned to capitalize on the underserved market of women-focused protein supplements. With new management prioritizing Trubar's expansion and the potential for significant sales growth, the current enterprise value of $23M is undervalued. The company's focus on SKU expansion, market positioning, and store rollout positions it for substantial growth and potential acquisition.

BSD Analysis:
Trubar's growth potential is supported by its unique market positioning as a vegan, gluten-free, and women-focused brand in a fragmented industry. The company's recent entry into major retailers like Costco and potential expansion into others like Kroger and Walmart highlight its growth trajectory. The management's decision to divest non-core assets and focus on Trubar aligns with shareholder interests and sets the stage for value realization. The financial restructuring, including shedding debt from PureKana's bankruptcy, strengthens the balance sheet. With a target price of C$1.25 per share, the stock presents a compelling investment opportunity with significant upside potential.

Pitch Summary:
Extensive insurance fraud that the management had a knowledge of; the sales agencies committed insurance fraud (writing policies for dead people, forged signatories, withdrawing funds without approval); fraudulent sales; illegal kickbacks;

BSD Analysis:
Globe Life provides life and supplemental health insurance. The short thesis cites regulatory scrutiny and allegations of aggressive sales practices targeting vulnerable households. Persistency assumptions on policies are critical, and if lapses rise, reserve adequacy could be questioned. Legal investigations and reputational risk could weigh on valuation and undermine growth.

Pitch Summary:
Cipher Pharmaceuticals has seen its stock rise significantly due to the potential of MOB-015, a topical treatment for toenail fungus, which could disrupt the Canadian market dominated by less effective treatments. The Canadian market for onychomycosis is largely untapped, with only 20% of sufferers currently seeking treatment. MOB-015 has shown superior efficacy in clinical trials compared to existing treatments, suggesting it could capture significant market share upon approval. The company is financially robust, with a strong cash position and no debt, allowing for strategic buybacks and potential acquisitions. Management's conservative approach and focus on cash-flowing assets provide a stable foundation for growth. The potential for market expansion and increased treatment rates presents a significant upside for investors.

BSD Analysis:
Cipher's existing business generates substantial cash flow, providing a solid financial base to support the development and commercialization of MOB-015. The company's strategic focus on acquiring cash-flowing assets and potential dividend initiation reflects a shift towards a more stable, non-speculative business model. The ongoing phase three trial results for MOB-015 could further enhance its market potential if it demonstrates improved complete cure rates. The approval and commercialization timeline for MOB-015 is projected for 2026, with a high probability of success given its existing approval in Sweden and recommendations in other European countries. The potential for market growth beyond the current 20% treatment rate could significantly enhance Cipher's revenue and profitability, making it an attractive investment opportunity.

Pitch Summary:
The company's all previous businesses failed and are now solely dependent on FlexTV; failed crypto business due to management incompetency; FlexTV is likely to fail again as the management has no experience in any entertainment business;

BSD Analysis:
Mega Matrix pivots frequently between gaming, digital assets, and crypto ventures. Short reports highlight a lack of consistent strategy, questionable governance, and reliance on retail speculation. The business model remains unclear, leaving the company highly exposed to sentiment-driven swings in crypto markets.

Pitch Summary:
Aggressive revenue recognition; accounting maneuvers to inflate profits; key profitability metrics are manipulated; shares are trading +25% over competitors; overvalued (x39 EBITDA, x57 EBIT); up to 50% downside;

BSD Analysis:
Dayforce (rebranded from Ceridian HCM) provides HCM and payroll software. Shorts argue growth is slowing as competition from Paycom, ADP, and Workday intensifies. The company is investing heavily in international expansion, but margins remain constrained. Any cracks in payroll volumes during a downturn would hit recurring revenue.

Pitch Summary:
Paywalled (We believe Marqeta is a financial platform in distress with its biggest customer, Block, and its biggest banking partner, Sutton Bank, both under the aggressively growing scrutiny of regulators. The Bear Cave further believes that Marqeta, through its partnership with Cash App, is facilitating criminal payments and becoming the preferred payment processor for child pornography.)

BSD Analysis:
Payment processor focused on small merchants and niche verticals. The short case cites elevated competition, slowing GPV growth, and pressure from Square, Stripe, and PayPal. Rising credit losses in BNPL partnerships and weak unit economics undermine the narrative of durable growth. Multiple expansion looks capped as investors rotate into scaled, profitable fintech platforms.

Pitch Summary:
Subsidiary listing in Shanghai attracted Chinese regulatory scrutiny; did not disclose that the IPO was blocked by Chinese regulators due to unfair related-party transactions; false data; tax evasion; improper storage of chemicals; sales dropped more than 50%;

BSD Analysis:
Producer of compound semiconductor substrates used in LEDs, lasers, and optoelectronics. Bears note cyclical demand, reliance on a few large customers, and exposure to Chinese supply chains. Margins are pressured by commoditization, and capex cycles in optoelectronics create lumpy earnings. Any slowdown in 5G or photonics adoption could weigh on growth.

Pitch Summary:
The company's e-commerce business has collapsed because of Amazon; products can't be used in the state due to recycling and labeling bills; organic growth has collapsed; facing existential challenges;

BSD Analysis:
Packaging company exposed to cyclical demand in food and industrial end-markets. Bears focus on rising input costs, FX headwinds, and customer destocking trends. While management is restructuring, execution risk remains, and leverage is elevated. ESG scrutiny around plastics could dampen long-term multiples.

Pitch Summary:
Boeing continues to encounter problems with its 737 MAX plane, and we decided to exit our position the next trading day following the door plug incident. Since our sale, Boeing’s stock has plummeted roughly -25%. The incident remains under investigation, and we believe Boeing will need to undergo a pivot in process to focus on safety and quality, which will mean adding additional costs and time to manufacturing each plane. This is good for passenger safety and the company’s reputation long-term, but also serves as a headwinds for earnings in the short- to medium-term, in our view.

BSD Analysis:
Boeing enters 2026 at a historic pivot point, with CFO Jay Malave issuing a definitive guidance of $1 billion to $3 billion in positive free cash flow—marking the first sustainably positive cash year since the pre-MAX crisis era. The company is targeting a 737 MAX production rate of 47 aircraft per month this year, assuming continued FAA satisfaction with quality metrics. Key catalysts for 2026 include the anticipated FAA certification of the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10, as well as continued progress on the 777X toward a 2027 entry into service. While the integration of Spirit AeroSystems introduces a roughly $1 billion headwind this year, management maintains that a $10 billion free cash flow target remains "very attainable" in the near term. The 2026 roadmap focuses on "re-baselined" values and inventory liquidation, positioning the firm for a more aggressive production ramp in 2027.

Pitch Summary:
American Express is a company we’ve liked for a long time, and we think could benefit from stronger-than-expected economic growth in 2024. Q4-2023 U.S. GDP was 3.4%, attributed largely to strong consumer spending and business investment. The jobs market remains stable, with March payrolls showing a 303,000 increase and the unemployment rate ticking lower to 3.8%. A healthy jobs market and rising real wages continue to support the U.S. consumer—the lifeblood of the U.S. economy and an earnings driver for American Express.

BSD Analysis:
American Express enters 2026 with an "upbeat" outlook, issuing full-year EPS guidance of $17.30 to $17.90, which sits above the market consensus of $17.41. The company continues to benefit from the resilient spending of its young and affluent customer base, with Gen Z and Millennial spending now representing the largest segment of its U.S. consumer business. Management recently confirmed a 16% increase in the quarterly dividend to $0.95, supported by 9%–10% projected revenue growth for the year. However, investors are closely monitoring potential regulatory headwinds, specifically the proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates which has pressured the stock in early 2026. Despite a slight holiday-quarter profit miss due to high marketing expenses and a "Platinum refresh," AXP's premium brand positioning and solid billed-business growth of 9% remain key pillars for its 2026 valuation.

Pitch Summary:
Taiwan Semiconductor. All of AI’s promise and potential relies heavily on Taiwan’s advanced semiconductors. According to a recent analysis by the U.S. International Trade Commission, 90% of advanced chips designed by Nvidia, Apple, and Broadcom are reportedly made by one company: Taiwan Semiconductor.

BSD Analysis:
TSMC has officially maintained its "Guardian Mountain" status in 2026, recently raising its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to a range of $52 billion to $56 billion (up as much as 40% from 2025). The company is a primary beneficiary of the AI "megatrend," reporting a 37% revenue jump in January 2026 and forecasting full-year revenue growth of nearly 30%. Management has confirmed that 2nm (N2) mass production is ahead of schedule, with volume production of the AI-focused A16 process expected to commence in the second half of 2026. Strategic geographic diversification is also accelerating, with tool installation at its second Arizona fab planned for this year. While 2026 supply remains tight, TSMC is aggressively ramping its CoWoS capacity toward a target of 120,000–130,000 wafers per month by year-end to meet insatiable demand from hyperscalers.

Pitch Summary:
Nvidia, our largest position, is a prime example. The stock rose 200+% in 2023, and in Q1 2024 it jumped +82.5% and was responsible for more than one-fifth of the S&P 500’s total return for the quarter. We understand it may seem crazy to think Nvidia can continue performing well. But the earnings are telling a different story. Goldman Sachs notes that its valuation (next-twelve-months P/E ratio) is still below its five-year average. Its earnings growth has actually outpaced its price gains.

BSD Analysis:
NVIDIA enters 2026 as the undisputed architect of the generative AI era, having recently reported a record-breaking Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $57.0 billion (up 62% year-over-year). Data Center revenue alone hit a milestone $51.2 billion, fueled by "off the charts" demand for the Blackwell platform and the sovereign AI movement. For the current quarter (Q4 FY26), management has issued a robust revenue guidance of $65.0 billion (±2%), signaling that supply-chain bottlenecks are beginning to ease. The company has returned $37.0 billion to shareholders in the first nine months of the fiscal year, with over $62 billion remaining in its buyback authorization. For 2026, the primary catalyst is the commercial introduction of the Vera Rubin architecture, which is projected to deliver a 3.3x performance leap over Blackwell, solidifying NVIDIA's pricing power in the "virtuous cycle" of AI infrastructure.

Pitch Summary:
The company's current business practice could be deemed as fraudulent; false claim to homebuyers; taking advantage of both homebuyers as well as mortgage brokers;

BSD Analysis:
Mortgage originator highly exposed to U.S. housing cycles. Short reports stress heavy reliance on refinancing volumes, which have collapsed with rising rates. Market share gains are possible, but at the cost of thin margins. With high leverage and cyclical headwinds, downside risk is substantial if rates remain elevated.

Pitch Summary:
Distressed business; declining sales hidden by aggressive revenue recognition; key operational metrics are manipulated; declining customer ROI; an engagement with the company's platform is falling; chief executives are leaving in the same year;

BSD Analysis:
Online physician review and scheduling platform. The short thesis highlights slowing growth post-pandemic, customer concentration, and questions about the durability of its advertising model. As competition in digital health intensifies, maintaining pricing power may prove difficult. Valuation remains elevated relative to peers.

Pitch Summary:
Palantir is able to solve complex business problems in administration, in production and even in wars (Ukraine and Israel). In 2023, the company's sales revenues increased by 17% to USD 2.23 billion. After a number of lean years, the company reported USD 210 million in profits. The market capitalisation is USD 53 billion. This is an extremely high valuation. But maybe this is the beginning of a new Microsoft. Major customers include big names like Airbus, the Axel Springer Verlag and the British health care system.

BSD Analysis:
Palantir’s moat is mission-critical analytics embedded in government and enterprise decision systems. Switching risk is high once data pipelines and workflows are integrated. Revenue concentration in government creates stability and political exposure. Commercial expansion is promising but still proving scalability. Pricing power exists where value is existential, less so in enterprise pilots. Profitability has improved, but valuation assumes sustained acceleration. Culture and narrative amplify volatility. The bull case is durable AI-driven platform adoption across sectors. Palantir compounds only if deployments convert into standardized, repeatable revenue—not bespoke hero projects.

Pitch Summary:
Notwithstanding the successful restructuring of the group, which is still in progress, Fresenius SE was not able to convince capital markets in the long term. In the end, scepticism gained the upper hand. The new CEO Michael Sen demonstrated has simplified the group’s structures. We see the company on a good path to reach its growth forecast of 3-6% for 2024.

BSD Analysis:
Fresenius’ moat is scale in dialysis and hospital services, but complexity clouds clarity. Dialysis provides recurring cash flow, yet reimbursement pressure caps margins. Hospital operations add volatility and capital intensity. Turnaround efforts focus on portfolio simplification and cost control. Debt levels constrain flexibility. Demographics support demand, but pricing is politically sensitive. Execution discipline will determine whether value unlocks. The bull case is operational reset with margin recovery. Fresenius survives on scale—thrives only with simplification.

Pitch Summary:
Two good pieces of news boded well for Lonza in March: The appointment of former Sigfried CEO Wolfgand Wienand to the position of CEO, and the purchase of a Roche production facility for biologics in the US for USD 1.2 billion.

BSD Analysis:
Lonza sits in the manufacturing backbone of biotech innovation. As a CDMO, it embeds deeply in customers’ development pipelines. Switching mid-process is operationally painful and risky. Biotech funding cycles create volatility in order flow. High-margin biologics capacity remains a structural asset. Capital intensity is heavy, making utilization key. Execution discipline matters more than expansion announcements. This is not speculative biotech. It’s outsourced drug manufacturing infrastructure.

Pitch Summary:
Inchcape is an automotive distributor that works with major manufacturers, representing 60 brands in more than 40 countries. With its global presence, in relatively small markets but with good growth rates, the company can offer a distribution service to the major manufacturers on very good terms. Its customers prefer to focus their sales efforts on the larger markets where it makes sense to invest in a complete sales structure. In smaller markets it is more profitable to use a distributor like Inchcape that can share the costs with multi-brand vehicle sales. Inchcape has gone from being in 29 markets representing 20 brands in 2016 to being present in 41 markets with 60 brands, partly thanks to acquisitions, but also thanks to organic customer acquisition. Inchcape's wholesale distribution margin (+6.9% in 2023) is better than retail sales (1.7%), so it is selling its dealerships to focus only on distribution. In this regard, Inchcape has just announced the sale of its UK dealerships, its last remaining retail business, and is in the process of integrating Derco, a Chilean automotive wholesale distribution company. With Derco, Inchcape has almost doubled its presence in Latin America and is obtaining very good synergies. Inchcape has presented very good results for 2023, with organic sales growth of 12% and profit growth of 35%, reaching a RoCE of 26%. Its debt is 0.8x ebitda. With a capitalization of £3,000m and Free Cash Flow after interest of £313m, it is trading at more than 10% FCFy, which we find very attractive for such a solid company, which is doing well and has the prospect of improving further.

BSD Analysis:
Inchcape is entering 2026 as a highly resilient distribution partner, aiming for a 10% compound annual growth rate in EPS through its "Accelerate+" strategy. The company’s independent distribution model is becoming increasingly valuable to OEMs as they face rising regulatory and competitive pressures, particularly in the rapid transition to New Energy Vehicles (NEVs). While mature markets are seeing a plateau in unit sales, Inchcape is capturing growth in emerging economies through its data-driven operating model and localized market expertise. Management is actively harnessing AI to personalize the aftersales journey and enhance demand forecasting, driving higher customer lifetime value across its diverse brand portfolio. With a diversified geographic footprint and strong OEM partnerships, Inchcape offers a stable, cash-generative play on the evolving global automotive landscape.

Pitch Summary:
In the first quarter of the year, we invested in three new companies, Macfarlane, Inchcape and Ebro. Macfarlane is a British company, based in Glasgow, which is engaged in the production and distribution of high-capacity protective packaging, designed primarily for the industrial sector. Its main customers are UK companies in the aerospace, automotive, logistics and electronic components sectors. It has two closely related businesses; first, the distribution of packaging material, offering warehousing and logistics services to its customers, allowing them to maintain very low inventories but flexibility in production. Second, it is engaged in the design and production of packaging systems. The company has a history of sustained GAP growth, both through its organic evolution and through the acquisition of smaller competitors that bring presence in new niches or geographic regions. In recent years, it has closed more than 14 deals that contributed almost half of current sales, at a multiple of between 5x and 6x ebitda. Despite these acquisitions, the company has virtually no debt, not least because of the synergies and cost savings achieved by closing redundant logistics centers and warehouses once the acquired companies are integrated. Sales in 2023 were 3.3% lower than in the previous year, but gross margin improved from 34% to 38% and Macfarlane reported its highest earnings ever. Even so, the share price has been depressed and we have been able to invest at an FCFy of over 8%. All in all, this is a very high-quality business, with no debt and trading at a very attractive valuation.

BSD Analysis:
Macfarlane’s moat is customer embedment in protective packaging supply chains. Switching distributors risks operational hiccups few customers want. Margins are modest but stable when volumes cooperate. Growth is incremental and acquisition-led. Pricing power depends on service reliability. E-commerce and logistics demand provide secular support. Cost discipline protects returns. The bull case is steady industrial activity. Macfarlane compounds slowly through service, not innovation.