Investment Pitches

Pitch Summary:
Lincoln National Corporation is currently undervalued, trading at a significant discount to its book value and sector peers. The stock's P/E ratio is notably low at 4.2x, compared to the sector's usual 8-10x, indicating a mispricing by the market. Despite past concerns over its commercial real estate portfolio, the company has shown a clear recovery in fundamentals, with a strong EPS performance and a safe dividend yield. The company's restructuring efforts and strategic deals, such as the Fortitude Re agreement, have improved operational efficiency, evidenced by higher operating margins compared to peers like Prudential Financial. The market's focus on balance sheet risks overlooks Lincoln's strong capital position and profitability potential, suggesting a significant upside as these factors are recognized.

BSD Analysis:
Lincoln National's strategic shift towards capital-preserving solutions and away from riskier variable annuities has strengthened its financial position. The company's Group Protection segment has achieved record margins, highlighting its ability to maintain pricing discipline and grow profits in an inflationary environment. The balance sheet risks are overstated, with a robust risk-based capital index well above regulatory requirements. The company's focus on debt reduction and operational cost efficiency further enhances its financial stability. Given these factors, the market's current valuation appears overly pessimistic, presenting an opportunity for substantial share price appreciation as the company's true value is realized.

Pitch Summary:
The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index ETF (VTI) has been downgraded from a 'Buy' to a 'Hold' due to recent technical damage in the U.S. stock market and high domestic equity market valuations. Despite a bullish view two months ago, which saw shares return 4%, the current macroeconomic environment suggests a more cautious approach. The ETF has experienced a false breakout and weakening momentum, with recent high-volume down days indicating a potential correction. Support levels are identified at $330 and $319-$322. The ETF's technical situation is mixed, with the 50-day moving average straddling and the 200-day moving average rising, suggesting primary trend control by bulls.

BSD Analysis:
The macroeconomic backdrop includes rising interest rates, strong corporate profits, and bullish investor positioning, contributing to a mixed technical outlook for VTI. Global portfolio managers' optimism is high, with cash levels at record lows, indicating potential liquidity risks. Seasonal trends suggest potential volatility, especially in a midterm election year. The ETF's recent performance, coupled with investor enthusiasm, presents a less favorable risk-reward scenario. Investors should be cautious of modest black swans that could lead to liquidity exits from risky assets. Overall, the ETF's outlook is tempered by macroeconomic uncertainties and technical signals.

Pitch Summary:
Verizon Communications Inc. offers a compelling investment opportunity due to its high dividend yield of over 7% and strong free cash flow generation, which suggests the dividend is sustainable. Despite a significant debt load, the company's cash flow remains robust, providing a buffer against financial strain. The recent appointment of a new CEO, David Schulman, who has a track record of tripling revenue at PayPal, is expected to bring strategic shifts aimed at customer-centric growth. The market's skepticism about Schulman's past performance at PayPal may be unwarranted, as he successfully maintained profitability and revenue growth. Verizon's valuation appears attractive, trading below its sector average EV/EBITDA multiple, indicating potential undervaluation. The company's commitment to maintaining its dividend and improving profitability further supports a positive outlook.

BSD Analysis:
Verizon's strategic focus on shifting from a technology-centric to a customer-centric approach could unlock new growth avenues in a saturated market. Schulman's familiarity with Verizon, having served on its board since 2018, may expedite strategic changes. The company's strong cash flow and manageable debt levels provide a solid foundation for sustaining its dividend, a key attraction for investors. The market's cautious stance, reflected in downward revisions of revenue and EPS estimates, could lead to positive surprises if Schulman's initiatives gain traction. The recent announcement of significant job cuts underscores Verizon's commitment to cost management and profitability enhancement. Overall, while execution risks remain, the potential for strategic transformation under new leadership presents a compelling case for investment.

Pitch Summary:
McDonald's stock has underperformed the market recently, primarily due to inflation and tariffs affecting low-income consumers, rising beef prices, and a lack of exciting growth catalysts. Despite these challenges, McDonald's remains a strong business with a high percentage of franchised stores contributing to its profitability. The company is expected to see a rebound in EPS growth and plans to open more stores, which could improve its performance. However, the current risk-on market environment favors tech and AI stocks, making McDonald's less appealing. Given the balanced risk/reward profile, the stock is rated as a Hold.

BSD Analysis:
McDonald's has a robust business model with high margins due to its franchising strategy, which allows it to maintain a strong net income margin and free cash flow margin. The company's focus on franchising has resulted in a higher percentage of franchised stores, which are more profitable than company-owned stores. Despite the current market conditions not favoring McDonald's, its low-beta nature could lead to outperformance in a market pullback. The valuation is reasonable, but not compelling enough to warrant a Buy rating at this time. Investors should watch for potential market turbulence, which could make McDonald's a more attractive investment.

Pitch Summary:
Avantis U.S. Small-Cap Value ETF (AVUV) stands out in the small-cap universe by focusing on equities that are not only inexpensive but also profitable. Despite higher volatility, AVUV has outperformed the risk-adjusted returns of the Russell 2000 Value index, making it an excellent choice for small-cap value exposure. The fund employs a rules-based active investing strategy, avoiding REITs and utilities while focusing on stocks with favorable price/book ratios and cash-based profitability. AVUV's experienced management team, led by Dr. Eduardo Repetto, brings a wealth of knowledge from Dimensional Fund Advisors, ensuring a disciplined and consistent stock selection process. The fund's unique adjustments to profitability and valuation metrics, along with its proprietary strategies, provide a performance edge over competitors.

BSD Analysis:
AVUV's focus on value and quality factors positions it well to thrive in various interest rate environments. Historically, small-cap stocks have been sensitive to interest rate movements, but AVUV's emphasis on profitable companies may mitigate this risk. The fund's sector allocation, which includes a tilt towards energy and consumer discretionary equities, has contributed to its impressive returns. However, its higher allocation to cyclical stocks could pose a risk if these sectors lose their appeal. Despite this, AVUV's disciplined approach and quantitative research underpin its stock picks, offering a distinct competitive advantage. As interest rate expectations remain uncertain, AVUV's strategy of balancing small-cap risk with value and quality factors may continue to deliver superior returns.

Pitch Summary:
Ally Financial has shown solid performance with a focus on its core auto-lending operations, leading to improved margins and returns. The company has strategically sold off non-core assets and is benefiting from a widening net interest margin due to falling deposit costs. However, its capital position is a concern, with a low adjusted capital ratio that could be risky in an economic downturn. Despite a $2 billion share repurchase program, the company's aggressive capital allocation strategy leaves it vulnerable if economic conditions worsen. Therefore, while the stock is not expensive, the potential risks warrant a 'Hold' recommendation.

BSD Analysis:
Ally's decision to authorize a $2 billion share buyback program indicates confidence in its financial position, yet it raises concerns about capital adequacy given its relatively low CET1 ratio. The company's focus on high-quality auto loans and improved underwriting standards should help mitigate credit risks, but the economic environment remains uncertain with rising unemployment. The strategic sale of its credit card business and credit-risk transfers have reduced capital intensity, but the timing of buybacks could delay achieving a more comfortable capital buffer. Investors should monitor economic indicators closely, as any downturn could impact Ally's financial stability and share performance.

Pitch Summary:
F.N.B. Corporation has demonstrated strong performance with an 11% rise in shares over the past year, bolstered by robust Q4 results. The company maintains a solid capital position, enabling balance sheet growth and margin improvements. With shares surpassing the $17 target price, the updated financials suggest further upside potential. The bank's strategic focus on reallocating capital towards higher-yielding loans and maintaining a healthy loan-to-deposit ratio supports future earnings growth. Additionally, FNB's conservative underwriting and strong credit quality position it well against potential economic downturns. The company's guidance for 2026 indicates continued balance sheet growth and a favorable interest rate environment, supporting a target price of $20.50.

BSD Analysis:
F.N.B. Corporation's strong capital position, with a CET1 ratio of 11.4%, provides a buffer for growth and shareholder returns. The bank's strategic shift towards business lending and away from residential mortgages is expected to enhance margins and EPS over time. Despite potential regulatory risks affecting fee revenue, the impact is manageable and does not alter the investment thesis. FNB's robust credit quality, with low delinquency rates and high reserve coverage, minimizes risk exposure. The company's ability to reinvest at higher yields and its disciplined cost management further strengthen its financial outlook. Overall, FNB is well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities while maintaining financial stability.

Pitch Summary:
Netflix's recent Q4 earnings report exceeded market expectations, showcasing reasonable growth and strong margins. Despite a complex deal with Warner Bros. Discovery, the company's valuation has become more attractive, presenting a buy opportunity. Netflix's ability to maintain high engagement through diverse content production, such as Netflix Originals, and its strategic focus on niche audiences, positions it well for sustained revenue growth. The company's operational efficiency and plans for new features, including interactive experiences and gaming, further strengthen its long-term prospects. With a strong subscriber base and potential for monetizing large franchises, Netflix is poised for significant future growth.

BSD Analysis:
The acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery introduces uncertainty but also offers substantial growth potential. Netflix's current net debt and free cash flow generation suggest it can support the deal, though execution remains a concern due to the complexity of integrating Warner's diverse operations. The company's strategic rationale for the acquisition, including access to Warner's extensive IP portfolio, aligns with its long-term growth strategy. Netflix's focus on maintaining content spend below revenue growth supports margin expansion, while its innovative content strategies continue to drive subscriber engagement. The current market correction presents an opportunity for investors to capitalize on Netflix's long-term growth potential.

Pitch Summary:
Devon Energy Corporation is transitioning from aggressive growth to operational optimization and deleveraging, positioning itself well in a challenging oil price environment. The company is executing a savings plan following its $5 billion acquisition of Graysom Mill Energy and has achieved significant cost reductions. Devon is optimizing its operations to be breakeven below $45 WTI, enhancing its financial resilience. A potential merger with Coterra Energy could create a diversified energy titan, addressing Devon's shorter inventory runway and providing dual-engine capability with oil and natural gas. The merger would also offer synergies in the Permian Basin, reducing costs and increasing oil recovery. Despite current market pressures, Devon's strategic moves and potential merger make it an attractive investment.

BSD Analysis:
Devon's strategic focus on cost optimization and deleveraging is crucial in the current oversupplied oil market. The company's ability to achieve over 60% of its $1 billion savings target within seven months demonstrates strong operational execution. The potential merger with Coterra Energy is a strategic move to enhance Devon's asset base and operational efficiency. The merger would provide significant synergies, particularly in the Permian Basin, and improve Devon's inventory life and geographical diversification. The combined entity would have increased bargaining power with service providers, potentially lowering operational costs further. While the merger poses integration risks, the strategic benefits and potential synergies make it a compelling opportunity for Devon.

Pitch Summary:
El Pollo Loco Holdings, Inc. has shown some stabilization with revenue, profits, and cash flows growing again. However, challenges such as declining foot traffic and comparable sales remain. The company is focusing on growth initiatives, including restaurant expansion and remodeling, which could improve its financial performance. Despite these efforts, the stock has underperformed the market, and the company's valuation remains attractive. Until a true recovery in comparable sales occurs, maintaining a neutral stance is appropriate.

BSD Analysis:
The company's recent performance shows a slight increase in revenue, driven by a small rise in company-operated restaurants. Management's focus on remodeling and menu innovation, such as new product introductions, aims to enhance margins and attract more customers. Despite these efforts, comparable sales have declined, indicating consumer pressure and a shift in spending habits. The stock trades at low multiples compared to peers, suggesting potential undervaluation. If management's initiatives succeed, the company's financial outlook could improve, warranting a reevaluation of its investment potential.

Pitch Summary:
Intermap Technologies is positioned as a leader in the geospatial technology sector, particularly with its proprietary IFSAR technology, which is crucial for precise mapping in tropical regions like Indonesia. The company's recent financial restructuring has eliminated immediate liquidity risks, providing a stable foundation to pursue large-scale government contracts. The core investment thesis hinges on winning the next phase of the Indonesian Integrated Land Administration and Spatial Planning Project (ILASPP), which could significantly boost revenues and market valuation. The company's strategic partnership with PT Pratama Persada Airborne enhances its competitive edge in the region. Additionally, Intermap's growing insurance business, leveraging its high-resolution data for flood risk modeling, offers a promising avenue for recurring revenue.

BSD Analysis:
Intermap's competitive advantage lies in its unique IFSAR technology, which outperforms optical satellites and LiDAR in cloud-covered and densely vegetated areas like Indonesia. The company's successful completion of Phase 1 of the ILASPP project and its strategic alliance with a local partner position it favorably for winning subsequent phases. The potential contract with Indonesia represents a significant macroeconomic driver, given the country's infrastructure challenges and the need for accurate geospatial data. While the market currently undervalues Intermap due to uncertainties and delays, the company's financial stability and technological moat suggest a high probability of securing the contract. The insurance business, with its scalable AI-driven platform, could further enhance Intermap's valuation by providing steady, high-margin revenue streams.

Pitch Summary:
Westrock Coffee Company has seen significant insider buying activity, suggesting confidence in the company's future prospects. Despite recent share price declines, the company is positioned for growth with improving earnings and cash flow generation. Trading at approximately 10x EV/EBITDA on FY26 estimates, Westrock is expected to achieve over 20% EBITDA growth, driven by expanding market opportunities and operational efficiencies. This presents a compelling investment opportunity for those seeking exposure to the consumer staples sector.

BSD Analysis:
The insider buying activity at Westrock Coffee indicates a strong belief in the company's growth potential, which is supported by favorable industry trends and strategic initiatives. As the company continues to expand its product offerings and optimize its operations, it is well-positioned to capture a larger share of the growing coffee and beverage market. Investors should consider the potential for sustained earnings growth and margin expansion as key drivers of Westrock's future performance. The company's valuation, relative to its growth prospects, suggests room for upside, making it an attractive investment in the current market environment.

Pitch Summary:
Matthews International is in the midst of a strategic alternatives evaluation process aimed at enhancing shareholder value. Despite recent share price declines, the company has engaged with activist investors and sold its SGK Brand Solutions for $350 million, retaining a 40% interest in the new entity. This move reflects Matthews' efforts to streamline operations and focus on core business areas. The ongoing strategic review could lead to further asset sales or restructuring, potentially improving the company's financial performance and market valuation.

BSD Analysis:
Matthews International's strategic initiatives are indicative of a company seeking to adapt to changing market dynamics and investor expectations. The sale of SGK Brand Solutions and engagement with activists suggest a proactive approach to unlocking value. However, the success of these initiatives will depend on the company's ability to identify and execute viable alternatives that align with its long-term strategic goals. Investors should consider the potential for improved operational efficiency and capital allocation as key factors influencing Matthews' future performance.

Pitch Summary:
Sinclair Broadcast Group is actively undergoing a strategic review of its Broadcast business and considering the separation of its Ventures business. The company's chairman has been purchasing shares in the open market, indicating potential confidence in future prospects despite current pressures on results. The ongoing strategic review could lead to significant changes in the company's structure, potentially unlocking shareholder value. However, the lack of engagement from EQ Scripps and market uncertainties pose risks to the realization of these strategic initiatives.

BSD Analysis:
Sinclair's strategic review process reflects a broader industry trend of media companies reassessing their business models in response to changing consumer preferences and technological advancements. The chairman's active share purchases suggest insider confidence, which could be a positive signal for investors. However, the company's ability to successfully execute its strategic initiatives will depend on market conditions and the willingness of potential partners to engage. Investors should monitor developments closely, as the outcome of the strategic review could significantly impact Sinclair's future growth trajectory and valuation.

Pitch Summary:
Green Dot Corporation is undergoing a strategic transformation by splitting its fintech business from its banking operations. The fintech segment will be sold to Smith Ventures for $690 million, while Green Dot Bank will merge with CommerceOne to form a new bank holding company. This separation is expected to unlock value by removing the bank charter, which has been a hindrance to potential buyers, and providing the fintech arm with a dedicated issuing-bank partner under a seven-year exclusivity agreement. The new entity aims to target the Business-as-a-Service market, where peers trade at higher valuations, suggesting potential upside for investors.

BSD Analysis:
The spin-off and restructuring of Green Dot's operations are likely to create a more focused and competitive fintech entity. By aligning with a dedicated issuing-bank partner, the fintech business can enhance its service offerings and potentially capture a larger market share in the rapidly growing Business-as-a-Service sector. The market's positive reception of similar restructurings in the past indicates that Green Dot's strategic move could lead to a re-rating of its stock. Investors should consider the potential for improved operational efficiency and market positioning as key drivers of future growth.

Pitch Summary:
@alc2022 pitches a bullish, long-duration thesis on Kraken Robotics ($KRKNF) as a platform company that could ultimately create a “digital twin” map of the ocean. The core argument is that today’s product set—subsea batteries, sensors, and autonomous underwater vehicles—is a stepping-stone to accumulating data and capability at scale rather than the end market. The author cites a Tesla-like operational playbook: iterative product improvement, scaling manufacturing, and moving from components toward a broader maritime platform. They point to M&A—especially the 3D at Depth acquisition—as a catalyst that expands metrology and mapping capability needed for the digital-twin ambition. Defense exposure is framed as an early anchor customer base that can validate technology and fund growth before commercial markets expand. Risks highlighted include shareholder dilution and operational delays (notably the Nova Scotia facility timeline), and the author discloses they do not currently own the stock. No valuation framework or explicit price target is provided; the upside case is primarily strategic and option-like.

BSD Analysis:
Kraken sits at the intersection of subsea sensing, power, and autonomous systems—markets with high technical barriers driven by harsh operating environments, long qualification cycles, and defense-led procurement. If management can keep compounding from products into integrated systems, the company can earn platform economics via recurring services, installed base pull-through, and proprietary data generated by deployments. The “digital twin” framing is best viewed as a data moat hypothesis: mapping, inspection, and ISR workloads could create compounding datasets that improve performance and widen switching costs. Competitive risk is real—defense primes and specialized sonar players can bundle offerings—so sustained differentiation will depend on resolution/performance, reliability, and cost per square-kilometer mapped. Capital intensity and execution (factory ramps, delivery cadence, and integration of acquisitions) are likely to drive volatility in margins and cash flow, making balance-sheet discipline essential. The underwriting question is whether Kraken can translate technical advantage into repeatable program wins and durable aftermarket/service revenue, rather than episodic project revenue. Valuation should be anchored to normalized mid-cycle margins and evidence of backlog conversion; without that proof, the thesis remains an attractive but speculative long option on subsea autonomy.

Actual Post Content:
$KRKNF is building the first digital twin of the ocean, which could be worth trillions of dollars. thread At the surface it looks like $KRKNF just makes batteries, sensors and AUVs. But this is just the mechanism to create the first digital twin of the ocean in human history. $KRKNF is perfectly leveraging the $TSLA playbook. As they continue executing the $TSLA playbook, they are likely to achieve a level of scale over the long term that allows them to create an exhaustive digital map of the ocean. We know far less about the ocean than about space, but both are immensely valuable. $KRKNF has a history of succesful M&A, which tends to signal an ability to fine tune organisational culture. As many of you know, I believe an extraordinary organisational culture is the best predictor of financial success. The 3D at Depth acquisition is what opens the doors for $KRKNF to leverage its industrial ability to create a digital twin of the ocean. And so far, the integration of 3D at Depth is going well. $KRKNF is now ramping up CapEx to increase manufacturing scale, which is a step in the right direction. There appears to have been a delay in the launch of the new Nova Scotia facility, however, which is not something we'd see at a company like $IREN. $KRKNG is giving $PLTR vibes, with a strong presence in the defense sector. Most US and EU defense primes are customers. Like $PLTR, this positions $KRKNF to excel in the commercial sector over the long term. $KRKNF has demonstrated the ability to compound its tech into more value delivered to customers per $ spent. They started being a sensor company and are now a maritime platform. As $KRKNF continues to integrated 3D and increase scale, this makes a digital twin likely. $KRKNF is a clear instance of what I term the $TSLA Algorithm - the fine-tuning of a machine that's increasingly capable of producing assets with exponential demand and relative supply scarcity. It's earned a spot in the same basket as $INRE; $RKLB, $ASTS, $RIVN and more. The balance sheet is in great shape, but at the expense of diluting shareholders. $KRKNF exhibits the ability to: A. Improve products. B. Platformise. C. Increase scale while keeping financial coherence. Therefore, I think it's likely the digital twin thesis materialises. I do not own $KRKNF stock. The above content is not financial advice and should not be interpreted as such. This content is for educational and entertainment purposes only. @threadreaderapp unroll.

URL: https://x.com/alc2022/status/2013627272608051358

Pitch Summary:
@aleabitoreddit outlines a speculative bull case for Draganfly as an embedded drone-infrastructure contractor rather than a traditional UAV OEM. The core thesis is that Draganfly’s value lies in distributed micro-factory deployment on U.S. military bases, creating deep integration and switching costs. NDAA-driven exclusion of Chinese drone suppliers is positioned as a structural tailwind. Capacity expansion, not current revenue, is the key misunderstood driver that could surface abruptly in reported results. The author explicitly frames this as a venture-style bet with high upside and high execution risk. Price targets cited by Northland support a bullish but speculative stance.

BSD Analysis:
Draganfly represents a non-obvious defense infrastructure play where manufacturing footprint, not unit sales, is the strategic asset. Embedded production inside military installations changes the competitive dynamic by reducing procurement friction and increasing program stickiness. Industry structure increasingly favors NDAA-compliant suppliers with domestic or allied manufacturing capability. The principal risk lies in translating capacity and subcontracted exposure into recognized revenue and sustainable margins. If execution succeeds, valuation frameworks could migrate toward defense manufacturing and systems integration rather than drone OEM peers. Failure would likely result in prolonged valuation compression due to limited near-term financial visibility.

Actual Post Content:
I’ve initiated small positions in $DPRO. This is an end to end war drone contractor and Draganfly looks like the RKLB to Ondas. ONDS went from 0.51 to 15 and I was looking for an equivalent. Draganfly is a vertically integrated defense prime not just a drone maker. $DPRO controls the entire ecosystem from the factory infrastructure to the end drone and it’s the largest beneficiary of NDAA that banned DJI which controlled 70 to 80 percent of market share. The biggest moat I didn’t understand earlier is embedded production. I looked at small current revenue numbers but missed that they’re building out distributed manufacturing throughout many US bases. Draganfly’s contract with the U.S. Army is not just to ship drones it is to install micro factories at US bases. It integrates Draganfly into the fabric of the US Department of War creating a layer of stickiness that is impossible for competitors to displace. Here’s why I entered positions they went from 5 million drone capacity ramp in 2025 to 400 million. Combining this with its partnership with Global Ordnance where it’s a subcontractor and Ordnance received 750 million IDIQ US CAD programs like 220 million CAD funding to NATO. It’s possible for DPRO to see triple digit or possibly 1000 percent plus revenue growth year over year and revenue hits the balance sheet by surprise in earnings. Each drone player has its own specialty DPRO focuses on the non kinetic and infrastructure aspect. European countries like Sweden use DPRO drones for life saving operations DEF C reconnaissance drones for Ukraine conflict via Global Ordnance and the US Army. With 51 million cash on hand just 20 percent of capacity ramp would be roughly 2.2 forward EV revenue. This is a very speculative venture style bet with rapid infrastructure expansion like RKLB at the start with Northland giving 20 dollar price targets. The thesis is that revenue will catch up to the infrastructure deployed across the US Army and remains hidden until earnings. TLDR took small speculative positions in DPRO as it’s set up to be the infrastructure of drone warfare with high potential upside and significant risk around revenue recognition.

URL: https://x.com/aleabitoreddit/status/2013621368831778896

Pitch Summary:
@crux_capital_ presents nLIGHT as part of a broader defense and aerospace photonics investment lane rather than as a standalone stock call. The thesis centers on photonics becoming increasingly critical to modern warfare as speed, sensing, and power converge. Lasers are highlighted as a foundational technology enabling directed energy and high-precision applications. The author argues procurement behavior is shifting toward repeatable cadence buying, favoring suppliers that can manufacture and qualify hardware reliably. This environment could structurally benefit laser component manufacturers embedded in defense supply chains. No valuation or near-term catalyst is specified for nLIGHT specifically. The stance is Bull at the sector level due to sustained defense demand and structural bottlenecks.

BSD Analysis:
nLIGHT sits in a segment where qualification, reliability, and thermal performance matter as much as headline output power. Directed energy and sensing applications create long program lives but impose high certification barriers, supporting incumbents once designed in. The key underwriting question is whether defense revenue can offset cyclicality in industrial and commercial laser markets. Gross margin durability depends on manufacturing yield and mix shift toward higher-value defense programs. Procurement cadence could smooth revenue but also penalize execution missteps. If photonics adoption accelerates as described, laser source providers with proven defense credentials may see durable demand across cycles.

Actual Post Content:
I have now posted two pieces on this sector, $LASR $LPTH $OPTX $RKLB $RDW. The first one was an introduction to Photonics in A&D and why I believe it is a really attractive sector for 2026. The second one laid out the urgency I am seeing and digs in to how the landscape is changing. My new piece will be the most actionable yet. This is a really vast investment space with so many companies involved. It easily gets overwhelming. The next article will lay out a simple 4 layer roadmap that will make it easier to analyze the space and see how value accrues at different stages. Thank you for everyone that has been reading along! Why Now? It’s time. Speed, sensing, and power are converging. If you haven't read my introduction yet, read it here: https://x.com/crux_capital_/status/2012006717954150790?s=20 So, why now? This space has been around for a long time. Infrared sensing has been a core military capability for decades. Lasers have lived through waves of promise, lab breakthroughs, prototypes, and long development cycles going all the way back to the Cold War. Optical communications has also gone through multiple hype cycles, with moments of excitement followed by slow adoption… Stay tuned!

URL: https://x.com/crux_capital_/status/2013455403598913554

Pitch Summary:
RTW Biotech became a new top ten holding after being accumulated from August 2023 through 2025. The investment thesis is based on gene editing and biotechnology representing the next major secular growth wave. RTW has deep scientific expertise and a global footprint, including exposure to China’s rapidly advancing biotech ecosystem. The shares were purchased at a 23% discount to NAV due to weak sentiment toward UK-listed closed-end funds. Since purchase, the shares have appreciated more than 69%, yet we expect to hold the position for many years as NAV continues to compound.

BSD Analysis:
RTW Biotech Opportunities is a specialized investment fund focused on identifying transformative assets within the life sciences sector. The company utilizes deep scientific expertise to invest across the full life cycle of biotech firms, from academic programs to mature public companies. In 2026, the fund is benefiting from a broader recovery in the biotech sector as AI-driven drug discovery accelerates. Management has achieved a total shareholder return of over 70% since its IPO, demonstrating its ability to pick winners in a high-risk industry. The fund provides retail investors with unique access to private markets and bespoke negotiated opportunities usually reserved for institutional capital. For 2026, RTW remains a high-alpha vehicle for playing the long-term trend of innovative medicine and transformative health therapies.