Podcasts Archives

Credit Market Meltdown, Hirings Collapse; Is 2008 Repeating? | Eric Basmajian

Description: Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/LIN or download the Kalshi App and use code LIN to sign up and trade today! Eric Basmajian … Transcript: people are missing about $5,000 of real income. Hadn’t we stayed on that trend. So for a family of four, that’s $20,000. When you have a supply side shock, you have […]

STRAWS ACCUMULATING ON THE CAMEL'S BACK (Guest: Brian McCarthy)

Description: This week Kevin & Patrick welcome, Brian McCarthy. They discuss the war in the Middle East, what that means for markets, and … Transcript: Hit it. It’s Friday, March 13, 2026. Well, Kev, it’s Friday the 13th. What can go wrong here, right? Anyway, but episode 287. I’m Patrick Sesna. >> And I’m Kevin […]

Will The Iran War Crash The Markets? | Michael Lebowitz

Description: LAST CHANCE! REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY’S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE AT THE EARLY BIRD DISCOUNT … Transcript: We’re growing concerned. That’s one reason we reduced our exposure by about six or seven%. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I’m thoughtful money founder and your host, Adam Tagert. Welcoming you here at the end of the week for […]

Will The Iran War Oil Price Shock Sink Stocks? | Lance Roberts

Description: REGISTER FOR THOUGHTFUL MONEY’S SPRING ONLINE CONFERENCE AT THE ‘LAST CHANCE TO SAVE’ DISCOUNT … Transcript: I’ve laid out kind of kind of three scenarios for the markets and this is what we’re working through right now is kind of these three scenarios. How long does this actually take and what’s the impact to […]

New Years Day Special on Gold and Silver | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor

Precious Metals: The guest is emphatically bullish on silver and gold, citing a structural breakout in the silver-gold ratio and momentum-driven acceleration in silver’s advance.
Silver Outlook: Silver is viewed as entering a new price reality with potential to reach $200 near term, driven by monetary demand and industrial uses across solar and AI-related technologies.
Gold Trajectory: Gold could extend toward and beyond an 8x move from prior cycle lows, supported by central bank buying, monetary debasement, and breakouts versus the S&P 500.
Commodities Upswing: The Bloomberg Commodity Index has broken out, with base metals like copper and platinum strengthening; the guest expects a multi-year second leg higher in commodities.
Oil Setup: Oil is a laggard but technically primed for a sharp upside move, potentially jumping $10–$20 quickly and reigniting inflation pressures.
Market Risks: Rising M2, a weak dollar, and fragile long-duration Treasuries could trigger policy panic and asset rotation into monetary metals and commodities.
Tech/A.I. Leadership Fading: AI leaders such as NVDA, MSFT, and ORCL are weakening on a relative basis, echoing dot-com-era rotations and signaling broader equity risk.
Actionable Positioning: The guest advocates exposure to precious metals, oil sector equities, and base metal miners, and buying silver pullbacks; mainstream shifts like MS’s 20% gold allocation reinforce this view.

Hemlo Mining Update | Jason Kosec and Jimmy Connor

Gold Mining: The guest pitches a long-life Canadian gold asset with plans to extend mine life from 14 to 20+ years and increase production from ~140k oz to ~200k oz annually.
Optimization Plan: A comprehensive brownfield optimization includes resource-to-reserve conversion, mine design changes, and mill upgrades to reach ~6,000 tpd and 200k oz by 2027.
Exploration Drilling: A 130 km drill program with a ~$40M exploration budget targets growth (new ounces) and high-definition drilling (resource conversion), focusing on A/B/D/E zones and fold closures.
Cost Structure: Life-of-mine AISC is ~$1,400/oz, with incremental capex for mill back-end upgrades; the plan leverages underutilized hoist, ramp, and mill capacity for higher throughput.
Price Assumptions: The company shifts reserve pricing to $2,100–$2,500/oz amid decoupling of spot vs. long-term consensus, enhancing stope continuity and operational efficiency.
Valuation & Catalysts: Management targets closing a valuation gap versus peers (~$1.5B vs. $3–3.5B comps) through execution, with catalysts including TSX mainboard listing, potential index inclusion, and a Q1 resource update.
Regional Upside: The Hemlo greenstone belt (47,000 ha) is a prolific region with multi-decade potential; regional exploration will be sequenced after near-mine value creation.
Context & Comparables: Asset was acquired from Barrick Gold (GOLD), with prior underinvestment creating opportunity for focused optimization and sustained margin preservation.

'It's a PSYOP' – Bankers' Last Ditch SILVER Smash Won't Hold: Mario Innecco

Silver Market: Guest argues the dramatic silver selloff is a paper-driven anomaly on COMEX/OTC, not reflective of physical markets.
Market Structure: Claims bullion banks flooded paper shorts and CME failed to trigger circuit breakers, highlighting systemic favoritism toward large financial institutions.
Physical vs. Paper: Notes heavy delivery demand on COMEX, shrinking registered inventories, and a persistent China premium for silver, reinforcing tightness in physical supply.
Gold vs. Silver: While gold also corrected, the guest expects silver to outperform on the rebound despite ongoing central bank support for gold.
Macro Risks: Rising debt, geopolitical instability, and declining trust in institutions raise odds of hyperinflation and currency debasement.
Policy Capture: Critiques influence of major banks and exchanges (e.g., JPMorgan, CME, BlackRock) and regulatory inconsistencies, viewing them as risks to fair price discovery.
Investor Stance: Advocates holding/adding physical gold and silver as sound money and a hedge, with U.S. rare minerals initiatives seen as supportive tailwinds.

Markets Tank As New Fed Chair Chosen, How Long Will Crash Last? | Danielle DiMartino Booth

Precious Metals: Gold and silver saw a sharp selloff, with the guest framing it as a tourist washout that could be a healthy reset if fundamentals improve.
Industrial Demand: The outlook for silver and related metals hinges on a sustained manufacturing rebound and marginal buyers (e.g., China/India), with restocking visible but renaissance uncertain.
AI Bubble: The guest argues AI spending is increasingly reliant on leverage, with pressure mounting as private credit tightens and examples like Microsoft and parts of the Mag 7 underperform.
Private Credit Risks: UBS’s 13.5% default-rate call highlights stress, especially in software-exposed loans, which could constrain financing for AI and broader growth.
Fed Policy: Anticipated shift toward disinflation management, potential rate cuts under Kevin Warsh, and balance-sheet reduction pose a tightening backdrop despite policy easing signals.
Manufacturing Rebound: ISM popped on restocking, benefiting equipment and machinery, but global PMIs and layoffs abroad temper the case for a durable industrial upcycle.
United States: Despite global concerns, the guest still views the U.S. as the preferred market relative to weak growth elsewhere and recent EM selloffs.
Defensive Positioning: With 2026 framed as a shakeout year, the guest favors defensive stances (e.g., utilities long/financials short) amid rising office delinquencies and tighter financial conditions.

Will Gold Price Collapse Continue? Lyn Alden On Market’s Next Big Moves

Precious Metals: Alden remains long-term constructive on gold, silver, and platinum despite a sharp pullback, noting prior structural undervaluation and the loss of asymmetry after parabolic moves.
Bitcoin: She sees near-term headwinds (weak external demand, broader crypto overvaluation, quantum-risk concerns) but still favors dollar-cost averaging with potential outperformance into 2026-2027.
Critical Minerals: Project Vault highlights a shift to industrial policy; Alden supports strategic stockpiles (uranium, rare earths) and is structurally bullish on commodity-linked supply chains.
Deglobalization: Expect flatter or declining globalization with more redundancy and resilience, implying less disinflation from supply chains and supportive dynamics for real assets.
Multipolar World: She expects a US- and China-centered order with other regional poles, which favors sovereign preference for metals over financial assets and supports decentralized settlement like Bitcoin.
US Equities: The US market remains a global leader given large, diversified, tech-heavy firms; she anticipates continued relative strength while keeping a diversified allocation.
Rates and Bonds: Post-2020 fiscal dominance suggests choppy-sideways yields rather than a renewed secular bond bull, making long-duration bonds less attractive versus real assets.

Why Initial Jobless Claims Could Blow Up the Stock Market | TCAF 194

De-dollarization: Guest outlines a structural shift as global investors reduce US exposure, initiate FX hedges, and gradually reallocate away from dollar assets.
Dollar Weakness: Expectation of a gradually weaker dollar driven by policy uncertainty, budget concerns, and changing portfolio flows beyond traditional Fed and growth cycles.
Gold: Highlighted as a key alternative for US investors seeking anti-dollar exposure, with China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange expanding global avenues to hold and transact in gold.
Crypto: Institutions now widely trade crypto; discussed as an alternative to the dollar with policy dynamics supporting broader adoption without posing an immediate existential threat.
Non-US Assets: Evidence of flows favoring non-US (notably European) bonds while US long-duration safety is questioned; reallocation expected to be slow but persistent.
Tariff Policy: Tariffs seen as a dial, not a switch; likely path includes a 10% minimum and 30–40% targeted at China plus sectoral levies (autos, metals, semis), sustaining uncertainty.
Consumer Impact: Retail commentary (Best Buy, Walmart, Ross) suggests tariffs are pressuring demand; services and travel data mixed, reinforcing caution.
Labor Market Watch: Initial claims and continuing claims are key triggers; a spike above ~255k could rapidly shift Fed expectations and market pricing.

Jonathan Lewinsohn – Credit Microcycles at Diameter (EP. 484)

Private Credit: Direct lending is now underrated, with a coming wave of capital solutions needed to fix over-levered 2021–22 vintages as refinancing at double-digit coupons becomes untenable.
AI Infrastructure: Attractive credit opportunities financing data centers and power assets, favoring hyperscaler-guaranteed, amortizing structures while avoiding long-dated chip residual risk.
Telecom Networks: A continuing microcycle as fiber and fixed wireless reshape broadband; legacy cable faces pressure while fiber build-outs and spectrum needs support selective credit opportunities.
US Housing: A rate-lock “freeze” creates a coiled spring; focus on building products credits tied to renovations, with upside as transactions normalize and rates eventually ease.
Chemicals Overcapacity: China’s push in base and specialty chemicals threatens margins globally; positioning for a disruptive microcycle, including potential short opportunities.
Healthcare Policy: Policy whipsaw and labor inflation create volatility; prefer diversified payor mixes across commercial/Medicare/Medicaid and durable return-on-capital models.
Asset Backed Finance: Insurance-driven private IG is compelling, but beware residual “stumps” that defer cash and may migrate into less suitable vehicles.
Macro Integration: Active macro work underpins underwriting across credits, distinguishing cyclical noise from structural shifts and guiding sector allocations.

Donald Trump And The Dollar: Either Weakening It Works Or It Doesn’t

Dollar Debasement: The guests argue policy is targeting a weaker dollar, setting up a prolonged debasement trade with broad portfolio implications.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver are highlighted as major beneficiaries of debasement, counterparty risk concerns, and systemic fragility, with price action accelerating.
Commodities & EM: They expect commodities and emerging markets to outperform, drawing parallels to 2001–2007 when a falling dollar drove strong EM and commodity returns.
Market Risks: Systemic risks from massive derivatives turnover and potential liquidity freezes are flagged, with the pace of change seen as the key danger.
Inflation Outlook: Persistent inflation and possible 1970s-style second wave could erode purchasing power, pressuring S&P margins and favoring real assets.
Energy & Gas: Underinvestment in oil, gas, and uranium plus EU gas policy may tighten supply; natural gas dynamics present both risk and opportunity.
De-dollarization: BRICS initiatives and waning foreign demand for Treasuries could accelerate de-dollarization, intensifying currency and trade tensions.
Portfolio Strategy: Emphasis on active management, real assets exposure, and readiness to rotate toward commodities and EM to protect purchasing power.

Jacques Bonneau: How I Pick Junior Miners, Plus 7 Stocks I Like Now

Commodity Cycle: Guest emphasizes the cyclical nature of junior mining, advocating buying lows, selling highs, and trading rather than buy-and-hold.
Gold Focus: Bullish on gold with historical cycle analysis and geopolitical tailwinds, noting silver typically lags gold in bull phases.
Lithium: Identified a bottom and a technical “golden cross,” citing momentum in large producers like SQM (SQM) and Albemarle (ALB) with notable price gains.
Rare Earths: Geopolitics and U.S.-China dynamics are seen as catalysts; suggests buying rare earth names when they become the “flavor of the month.”
Copper: Expects copper to follow gold and silver in bull phases, with potential upside in large deposit plays as the cycle matures.
Strategy & Risk: Highlights the 80/20 rule, importance of management quality, technical signals, and recognizing “mini-bubbles” lasting 4–18 months.
Jurisdictions: Prefers Canada, South America, and Finland/Americas for lower risk; avoids China and Russia, while viewing Ivory Coast as promising but risky.
Market Outlook: Sees broad bullish conditions across commodities, with macro-political forces potentially amplifying gold and select metals.

The Financial Crisis Of 2026: Economists Sound Alarm Bells | Hanke & Skousen

Market Outlook: Expect slow growth with stubborn inflation as money supply accelerates and wealth effects keep consumption elevated.
Precious Metals: Strong secular bull case for gold and silver, with targets up to $6K–$7K for gold and tailwinds from a weaker dollar and diminishing Bitcoin hedge appeal.
AI Infrastructure: Data centers and chip-making are boosting industrial demand for silver, supporting sustained consumption despite potential tech stock volatility.
Uranium/Nuclear: Uranium and nuclear stocks pitched as having better upside than gold/silver, aided by SMR adoption and tight supply dynamics.
Copper: Ongoing infrastructure build and data center growth underpin copper demand; copper equities were highlighted as attractive.
Companies Mentioned: Miners cited as examples of recent strength include Kinross Gold (KGC), Newmont (NEM), and Southern Copper (SCCO).
Risks: Geopolitical tensions (Iran/Hormuz), tariff uncertainty, and potential government shutdowns pose macro risks, while above-ground silver hoarding dynamics could influence supply.

Diversification is more important than ever! | Systematic Investor | Ep.385

Metals Momentum: Extensive discussion of strong trends in precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) and broadening strength into base metals (copper, aluminum).
Commodity Supercycle: Potential for a renewed supercycle tied to monetary system shifts and deglobalization, with metals likely key beneficiaries.
Weak Dollar: A structurally weaker USD was highlighted as a tailwind for commodities and FX trend opportunities, including short dollar exposures.
Managed Futures: Positive outlook for diversified, rules-based trend following given multiple concurrent trends across sectors and robust January performance.
Diversification Edge: Emphasis on breadth across commodities versus narrow, replicator-style allocations that may miss non-core markets during broad trend regimes.
Risk Management: Volatility estimation speed materially affects outcomes; faster cuts protect in shocks while slower estimates can capture more of enduring trends.
Geopolitical Risk: Rising geopolitical and trade frictions seen as supportive for trend strategies that adapt to macro regime shifts.
No Single-Stock Pitch: No specific public equities or tickers were advocated; the focus remained on commodities, currencies, and managed futures allocations.

Peter Krauth: Silver Price at Triple Digits, Here's What Happens Next

Silver Breakout: Silver’s surge to triple digits is attributed to multi-year supply deficits and accelerating investment demand, with expectations for a healthy consolidation before further gains.
Miners Re-Rating: The guest argues silver miners are primed for a major revaluation as analysts update models to higher silver prices and margins expand over coming quarters.
Developers’ Upside: Producers trade near ~2x NAV while developers hover around ~0.2x NAV, implying significant catch-up potential and highlighting developers and quality smaller producers as focus areas.
Asia Demand: China’s dominant solar manufacturing and refining capacity plus persistent premiums signal strong ongoing demand; India is also paying premiums and substituting into silver jewelry.
Industrial Offtake: Large buyers like Samsung are securing silver via supply agreements and pre-funding, with potential solid-state battery demand adding to industrial pull.
Solar Dynamics: Copper substitution faces technical and retooling hurdles; higher panel costs could spur subsidies, creating a feedback loop supportive of silver demand.
Market Timing: Historical bull-market drawdowns of 15–30% suggest a possible pullback is a buyable reset; the guest expects year-end prices higher than today.
Equity Leverage: Silver stocks have underperformed the metal in recent years but may flip to positive leverage as cash flows and valuations catch up.

Massive Dump In Gold, Silver: Why Rick Rule Is Selling Now

Precious Metals: Rick Rule is long-term bullish on gold as a savings asset and expects continued support from negative real yields and central bank demand.
Gold Miners: He argues gold miners are not overvalued assuming ~$4,200 gold, with upside from earnings surprises as sell-side models use lower price decks.
Silver: He took profits after a parabolic move, emphasizing a discipline of buying hated assets and selling when love and reduced utility emerge.
Oil and Gas: High conviction multi-year call driven by chronic underinvestment and capital starvation, setting up tighter supply and better industry economics.
Macro Backdrop: Negative real yields, rising long-end rates, and the return of bond vigilantes support hard assets over fiat-denominated savings.
Institutions: He notes institutions are being “dragged” into gold miners by performance, implying continued flows despite decades of neglect.
No Single-Stock Picks: No specific tickers were pitched; focus was on sector-level opportunities in gold miners and oil and gas, with emphasis on valuation math and risk control.

THE OIL MARKET HAS SPOKEN (Guest: Craig Shapiro)

Precious Metals: Extended discussion on gold vs. silver dynamics, debasement hedging, Asian buying, and volatility signaling risk-manager-driven de-leveraging.
Dollar Weakness: Guest argues Trump’s policy mix implies a structurally weaker dollar, with implications for flows out of USD assets and into gold and non-U.S. equities.
Oil Bull Market: Case made for higher oil due to industry supply discipline, geopolitical risk premium, and the inflation/volatility feedback loop impacting broader markets.
AI Capex: Shift from software to hardware/memory profits noted; financing moving from internal cash flow to debt as market becomes more selective across the AI value chain.
Emerging Markets: Weak-dollar beneficiaries and commodity-linked equities highlighted as leaders YTD, with caution about short-term de-risking as cross-asset volatility rises.
Japan and China: Guest sees both as investable on capital rotation from U.S. assets, Japan’s deficit spending/repatriation tailwinds, and China’s quieter but persistent policy moves.
Market Volatility: Warns of a regime where commodity and FX vol bleeds into equities, forcing de-grossing; emphasizes risk management and potential for episodic deleveraging events.

What Is Real Money? Why Dollars Aren’t Savings & Gold Returns | @Goldsilver's Alan Hibbard

Hard Money vs Currency: The guest distinguishes saving (gold, silver, Bitcoin) from investing/speculation, emphasizing preservation of energy/value over time.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver are framed as primary stores of value resistant to entropy, with caveats on silver’s industrial use and periodic supply shocks.
Bitcoin: Positioned as digital gold prioritizing security and decentralization over scalability, making it unsuitable as a currency but viable for long-term saving if understood.
Monetary Trilemma: Discussion of scalability, decentralization, and security trade-offs explains why money and currency must be layered in a system.
Market Outlook: Signals of dollar weakness, sanctions, and central bank dynamics suggest movement toward a new monetary regime potentially referencing gold.
Gold Standard: A potential gold-backed framework is explored, with recognition of political, debt, and social constraints that complicate implementation.
Opportunities & Risks: Holding money (gold/silver/Bitcoin) for long-term savings and using currencies for transactions; risks include Bitcoin volatility and silver’s supply sensitivity.
Investment Perspective: Focus on emotional tolerance, balance, and minimizing “energy liabilities,” building portfolios that require infrequent intervention.

The End Of The Carry Trade Era And The Biggest Generational Wealth Shift Coming

Anti-Carry Shift: The guest argues a transition from a carry-trade regime toward an anti-carry environment, with inflation and monetary regime change likely forcing volatility higher.
Gold’s Role: Gold is framed as a monetary debasement signal and systemic-risk hedge, but the guest expects energy to outperform gold over the next few years given fundamentals.
Energy Undersupply: Years of underinvestment, shale rollover, and limited spare capacity set up oil and especially natural gas for tighter markets and higher prices.
Offshore and Oil Sands: Specific opportunities highlighted include offshore drilling contractors (asset replacement value gaps) and long-life Canadian oil sands producers for leverage to rising oil.
Gas Demand Drivers: AI data centers and LNG exports create a three-way tug-of-war for US gas (consumers, data centers, export markets), threatening the US’s historic price discount.
Macro Risks: Central bank limits amid inflation, large derivative exposures, and trade/monetary shifts (tariffs, BRICS initiatives) elevate volatility and support real assets.
Market Perspective: The guest favors a rotation from financialized assets to real assets, prioritizing energy over precious metals near term; no specific stock tickers were pitched.

Pitch Categories: Podcasts