WEAPONIZE THE PERIODIC TABLE (Guest: Tony Greer)
Description: This week Kevin & Patrick welcome, Tony Greer. They discuss his trading successes and mistakes, as well as the current market … Transcript: Hit it. It’s Friday, May 22nd, 2026, episode 291. I’m Patrick Szna. And I’m Kevin Mureer. This week, we welcome back to the show an old fan favorite, Tony Greer from […]
It Won't Take Much To Tip This Market Over | Lance Roberts
Description: WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money’s endorsed financial … Transcript: prices are well above well deviated above long-term means. And typically when you have that kind of deviation, markets are going to find a reason to correct. And and all it needs is a reason, some reason. It […]
A Perfect Storm Of Troubles Is Brewing | Cem Karsan
Description: WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money’s endorsed financial … Transcript: Supply side economics is efficient. It creates better profits for companies, creates greater technological development, creates uh global expansion and peace, but it creates massive inequalities and halves and has nots. And the second we move back towards […]
This Simple Strategy Can Save Retirees Thousands (or More) | Julia Lembcke
Description: WANT RETIREMENT PLANNING HELP? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money’s endorsed … Transcript: People have after tax brokerage accounts, pre-tax accounts, maybe a little bit of a Roth account and the way that they withdraw those funds, the sequence with with which they withdraw the funds um has a huge impact on […]
TDI Podcast: The Next Phase (#973)
Description: Inflation sticky like old pine sap… Another round of China meetings. Universal Basic Income –hints and whispers. And our guest … Transcript: This episode is sponsored by Interactive Brokers and world events unfold in real time. Now you can trade them. With IBKR prediction markets trade election climate and economic outcomes alongside stocks, options […]
TDI Podcast: Crypto Camuso (#974)
Description: NVDA earning are out. SpaceX IPO excitement is growing. Key interest rates driving higher. And we are talking crypto – with our … Transcript: This episode is sponsored by Interactive Brokers. You research your investments. You analyze markets. You manage risk. But have you researched your broker? For the past three years, Interactive Brokers […]
WAWD Reunion: Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel Are Back for On The Tape
Description: Danny Moses reunites with former partners Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel to discuss trading and positioning amid a fluid … Transcript: Welcome to the On the Tape podcast. I am Danny Moses and it’s been a while. So today what are we doing version on this podcast with my former partners Porter Collins and […]
Is Passive Investing Breaking the Market? | Global Macro | Ep.101
Description: Hari Krishnan joins Niels and Cem for a deep exploration of what happens when markets become dominated by flows rather than … Transcript: I feel worried about all this though because I don’t like an economy putting my free market cap on. Uh I don’t like an economy that is reliant on a small […]
QIS & Trend Following in 2026 ft. Nick Baltas | Systematic Investor | Ep.401
Description: The world of systematic investing is evolving fast, and in this episode Nick Baltas joins Moritz Seibert to explore the explosive … Transcript: Welcome to Top Traders Unplugged. In markets, success doesn’t come from predicting what happens next. It comes from being prepared for what you can’t predict. In each episode, we go deep […]
Trade of The Week – MacroVoices #533
Description: Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook : https://bit.ly/4uqG7nW ✓Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: … Transcript: Now, back to your hosts, Eric [music] Townsend and Patrick Ceresna. Eric, it was great to have Morgan on the show. Now, listeners, you’re going to find the download link for this week’s trade […]
$LBTYK: can Liberty Global finally spin to win? | Stock Spin-Off Investing's Rich Howe
Description: Rich Howe of Stock Spin-Off Investing makes the bull case for Liberty Global ($LBTYK): cheap on a sum-of-the-parts, … Transcript: All right, hello and welcome to yet another value podcast. You’re about to listen to an episode, well, I I guess I should say with yours truly, Andrew Walker. You’re about to listen to […]
$DRVN Cruising through the Driven Brands thesis | Kyle Mowery GrizzlyRock Capital
Description: Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why … Transcript: You’re about to listen to yet another value podcast with your host me, Andrew Walker. Today I have one of my favorite people in the industry, Kyle Mowy from Grizzly Rock Capital on. We’re going to […]
The “Card Counter” Formula That Beat Wall Street For 20 Years| SIH
- Modeling and Markets: The guest emphasizes that mathematical models are powerful but limited tools, urging investors to understand assumptions and where models can fail.
- Tail Risk: Drawing on Mandelbrot, he explains fat tails and the higher likelihood of extreme events than normal distributions imply, with implications for pricing and risk.
- Options Pricing: A deep dive into Bachelier, Thorp, and Black-Scholes leads to how implied volatility is inferred and why assumptions matter in derivatives markets.
- Volatility Smile: Post-1987, traders price in fatter tails, producing a volatility smile/surface that both relies on and contradicts Black-Scholes, offering insight into market expectations.
- Risk Management: Survival and position sizing via Thorp’s Kelly criterion are highlighted as essential to avoid ruin, especially amid rare but severe drawdowns.
- Passive Investing: The rise of passive ETFs may impair price discovery and increase concentration-driven risks, potentially causing sharp market dislocations.
- Quant Strategies and Scale: Many quant approaches work at small AUM but degrade at large scale; similar scalability concerns apply to the growth of private markets and shrinking public market breadth.
- AI Impact: AI is transforming coding, research workflows, and potentially labor markets, offering utility but raising displacement and educational integrity concerns.
A CIO's Warning on Stocks | Barron's Streetwise
- Market Valuation: Equity risk premium is near a 20-year low, suggesting elevated valuations and potential complacency among investors.
- AI Infrastructure: Massive capex into AI could be overbuilt if models become more compute-efficient, risking stranded assets and earnings disappointment.
- Semiconductors: Semis are acknowledged as cyclical; the guest suggests trimming concentrated, high-volatility exposure rather than exiting equities.
- Portfolio Strategy: Prefer rebalancing (e.g., back to 60/40), shifting some gains from concentrated winners into broad S&P 500 exposure and bonds.
- Regional Tilt: Increase allocation to Europe as a way to participate in AI-driven productivity without overexposure to U.S. mega-cap tech.
- Real Assets: Favor REITs (washed-out valuations, reasonable cap rates) and homebuilders as hard assets less likely to be disrupted by AI.
- Historical Lessons: Cites past leaders like Juniper Networks (JNPR) and Cisco (CSCO) to caution against assuming perpetual hypergrowth; no specific single-stock pitches were made.
Fundraising Mastery: the Tao of Kimmer – John Kim (EP.503)
- Fundraising Framework: The guest outlines structured selling steps—rapport, credibility, attention, and interest—followed by needs, solution, objections, and close.
- Persuasion & Trust: Emphasis on reducing fear over stoking desire, using authority, consistency, liking, reciprocity, scarcity, and consensus to build trust.
- LP Taxonomy: Guidance on tailoring pitches to pension plans (respect), sovereigns (strategic benefit), fund of funds (differentiation), family offices (decision-maker focus), insurance (risk mitigation), and endowments (specialness).
- Objection Handling: Repeat, clarify, and question to reach truth; prioritize winnable objections and close decisively when terms-based hurdles can be solved.
- Sales Math & Trade-offs: Focus on pipeline × conversion × bite size; manage the law of trade-offs across size, terms, and speed, and leverage fundraising skill to amplify potential energy.
- Team Structure: Distinguishes data service, IR service, relationship managers, and a “Secretary of State” role with high GP/LP information to speak for the firm.
- Market Cycles: In downturns, strong fundraising and client service by mega funds accelerate gains when tides return.
- AI Theme: The guest leads an AI company and discusses AI’s risks and promise, pitching a clear narrative that to remove labs with AI, models must first be trained on laboratory data.
“This Is Backdoor Monetization” GOLD’s Next Move | Michael Howell
- Gold Thesis: Guest is bullish on gold, framing pullbacks as buying opportunities and linking long-term upside to rising global debt and liquidity injections.
- Drivers of Gold: Liquidity expansion from the Fed/Treasury and China’s PBOC historically correlate with higher gold prices, while recent PBOC pause is a short-term headwind.
- Bond Market Volatility: The Treasury’s buybacks and Fed liquidity aim to cap bond volatility (MOVE index), with failure risking a hedge fund basis-trade unwind and yield spikes.
- Repo and Liquidity: Elevated SOFR/repo tensions prompted roughly $600B of de facto QE via reserve management and bank-reg rule tweaks to stabilize money markets.
- US Dollar Outlook: Dollar strength is underpinned by global dollar-denominated debt and could be further entrenched by rising stablecoin adoption.
- Stablecoins: US Treasury-backed stablecoins offer ease of use and perceived security, potentially siphoning deposits from weaker currency regions and reinforcing USD dominance.
- Macro Risks: Heavy front-end US bill issuance raises rollover and interest-cost risks; monetization and fiscal deficits imply persistent inflation pressures benefiting gold over time.
- No Specific Tickers: The discussion focused on macro themes (gold, USD, liquidity, stablecoins) rather than individual public companies or stocks.
Post-Massie America
- Investment Themes: The speakers repeatedly highlight Bitcoin and Precious Metals as attractive alternatives to political donations, noting better outcomes since 2014.
- Policy Angle: There is sustained discussion of eliminating capital gains taxes on gold, silver, and Bitcoin, with references to state-level tax reforms for metals.
- Macro Outlook: Concerns about economy-wide malinvestment from the financial crisis and COVID suggest tougher conditions ahead.
- Market Risks: The influence of powerful interest groups like AIPAC and centralized congressional leadership is seen as constraining anti-war and monetary reform agendas, shaping policy risk.
- Strategy: Preference is expressed for building interest-group power and communication platforms over chasing federal legislative wins.
- Assets over Activism: One speaker explicitly owns Bitcoin and contrasts allocating funds to assets (Bitcoin, gold, silver) versus political campaigns.
- Companies/Tickers: No specific public companies or tickers were pitched; the focus remained on broad assets and policy-driven opportunities.
Why Energy Could Surge Like Gold Did Last Year, and Most Investors Don't Own Enough | Ted Oakley
- Energy Overweight: Guest is strongly bullish on the energy sector, noting it is under-owned and outperforming, and advocates owning across the value chain from producers to midstream, drillers, services, and even refiners.
- Energy Implementation: Examples span producers (Chevron, Exxon, Matador), midstream (Enterprise Products, MPLX, Energy Transfer), offshore drillers (Transocean, Noble), and services (SLB), emphasizing cash flows and dividends.
- Commodity Supercycle: He believes we are in the early innings of a decade-long commodity cycle and owns diversified miners like Rio Tinto and Vale plus exposure to critical minerals.
- Precious Metals: Long-term constructive on gold and silver but tactically trimmed miners and silver after strong gains, expecting a shakeout before the next leg higher while holding core bullion.
- Treasury Positioning: Portfolio maintains substantial liquidity in short-term U.S. Treasuries (sub-18 months), avoiding long-duration bonds amid expectations of higher inflation and pressure on the 60/40 model.
- Macro Backdrop: Consumer is weakening with rising delinquencies, while markets are driven by momentum and speculation; a recession would be the likely catalyst to break the trend but is not imminent.
- Risks and Valuations: He warns that semiconductors and parts of mega-cap tech appear stretched, and speculative behavior (options, crypto, IPO chasing) signals late-cycle dynamics.
- Policy Outlook: Expects potential financial repression as a longer-term path to manage debt, which, alongside firm energy prices, could keep inflation elevated and shape portfolio construction.
The Day America Ran Out of Options
- Macro Thesis: The guest argues the Fed will choose to support the bond market (Door 2), leading to sustained dollar weakness and higher inflation over time.
- Energy/Oil: Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed ~20% of global oil supply for weeks, pushing oil above $100 and intensifying inflation pressures.
- Policy Dynamics: Expanded currency swap lines (e.g., UAE, Argentina) and ongoing liquidity support imply more dollar creation, reinforcing the slow erosion of purchasing power.
- Market Outlook: Rising inflation and a weakening dollar are expected to persist, with real-world impact at the pump, grocery store, and on fixed-income purchasing power.
- Investment Takeaway: Position for a slow-debasement regime by favoring energy and oil-linked exposure as beneficiaries of tight supply and elevated prices.
- Risks: A Volcker-style rate spike (Door 1) could trigger a rapid economic contraction, while ending the Iran conflict (Door 3) risks U.S. credibility even if it relieves oil pressure.
- No Stock Picks: No specific tickers are pitched; the focus is on themes—oil, rising inflation, and dollar weakness—over individual equities.
China Watches America Pawn The Furniture?
- Energy Thesis: The guests argue the US Energy sector is poised for outperformance amid persistent supply-demand imbalances and underinvestment.
- Oil Market Tightness: Ongoing SPR drawdowns, Cushing storage nearing operational limits, and surging exports signal an Oil Supply Crunch despite price weakness.
- Refining Dynamics: US refiners are optimizing for jet fuel, leaving gasoline inventories at multi-year lows ahead of summer, elevating risks of gasoline shortages.
- Natural Gas & LNG: Forecasts show record Natural Gas Demand growth, with LNG Export Growth the largest driver and potential curtailments for weaker-contract customers.
- Data Centers: Massive new Data Centers (e.g., a proposed 9 GW build) will strain power and gas infrastructure, likely lifting utility costs and reprioritizing supply to large buyers.
- Geopolitics: China reducing Treasuries while accumulating commodities (oil, gold) could exacerbate US energy vulnerabilities and market volatility.
- Risks & Policy: Political interventions, export bans, or nationalization would be disruptive tail risks; however, a regime shift favoring energy equities is expected before heavy-handed policies arrive.
