AI Cycle: Extensive debate on whether the recent AI drawdown is a correction or crash, focusing on capex intensity, chip depreciation schedules, and unit economics; conclusion was the AI trade isn’t over despite skepticism.
Nvidia (NVDA): Positioned as the potential catalyst to stabilize AI sentiment with earnings and guidance; guest would buy a sharp post-print dip and noted JPM’s bullish setup amid detailed expectations for data center, margins, and China exposure.
Meta (META): After a ~27% drawdown, the guest initiated a buy around a market multiple (~19x forward), acknowledging a penalty box period but expressing long-term confidence and a favorable risk/reward.
Oracle (ORCL): Following a ~30%+ pullback tied to AI/cloud monetization doubts, the guest initiated a position, viewing the reset as an opportunity despite near-term volatility.
Semiconductors: The SOX entered correction after an extreme run where semis added ~$1T then gave back ~$830B; the reset and higher VIX were framed as healthy for a new climb.
Refiners (VLO): With crude potentially heading toward ~$52, refiners stand to benefit; Valero was cited as a top performer and part of a preferred list, and the refiners theme was highlighted as a targeted long.
Market Outlook: Skepticism is elevated (BofA survey on overinvestment in AI), yet positioning shows investors haven’t fully exited; retail dip buying is strong but may fade if weakness persists.
Risks: Private credit/BDCs (e.g., Blue Owl) face pressure from redemptions, dividend variability, and hyperscaler-related exposures; leverage-heavy single-stock ETFs showed severe drawdowns, underscoring risk management needs.
Risk Management: Cautionary discussion on YOLO trading, margin use, and concentration risk, emphasizing the dangers of leverage and the potential for margin calls.
MicroStrategy (MSTR): Extensive breakdown of MSTR as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy with extreme drawdowns and volatility, highlighting why using margin on such positions can be catastrophic.
Bitcoin: If bullish on Bitcoin, prefer owning Bitcoin directly over proxies like MSTR; recognize high volatility and avoid excessive leverage or revenge trading.
Information Technology: Addressed concentrated Big Tech positions and tax-aware diversification, including staged selling, hedging, exchange funds, and options as tools to manage bubble concerns.
Roth Strategy: Strong endorsement of Roth 401k contributions and planned Roth conversions in low-income years to optimize lifetime after-tax wealth.
Housing Finance: Compared HELOCs (floating rates and flexibility) versus cash-out refis (fixed rates and predictability) for funding home improvements without sacrificing valuable low-rate mortgages.
HSAs: Supported long-term HSA compounding as a tax-advantaged bucket with flexibility to reimburse past medical expenses later and function like a traditional IRA at age 65.
Market Outlook: Brief take on Nvidia earnings not being a make-or-break event for markets and reinforcement of diversified, disciplined investing over single-name bets.
AI: Sweeping analysis of AI-driven capex, with concerns about overbuilding data centers, weak willingness to pay, and echoes of past fiber/railroad bubbles.
Key Companies: Big Tech spenders cited include NVDA (context), AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL, META, and ORCL as capex leaders fueling the AI race and market euphoria.
Bitcoin: Deep skepticism toward crypto’s utility and safety, criticism of policy and ETF adoption, and argument that the most efficient price could be zero.
Private Equity/Credit: Extensive warnings on democratization, stale marks, higher-rate stress, rising defaults, and secondaries pressure after years of easy money.
US Equities: CAPE near historic extremes and classic late-cycle signals (euphoria, promotion, leverage), prompting caution on a potential major market top.
Gold: Long-form discussion of gold’s cycle, recent surge, macro drivers (fiscal/monetary strain), and the psychological risks of chasing a hot tape.
Government Debt: Alarming growth in global and U.S. deficits and potential shifts in demand for Treasuries, with scenarios of a steeper curve and a weaker dollar.
Buffett Case Studies: Deep dive into Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.B) Gen Re merger and BNSF acquisition as strategic masterstrokes aligning defense-first risk management with long-term offense.
Iconic Investments: Coca-Cola (KO) and Apple (AAPL) highlighted as transformational holdings, with Apple framed as a consumer products franchise and among Buffett’s best trades; IBM (IBM) discussed as a valuable lesson.
Japan Equities: Bullish view on Japanese trading houses via yen-denominated financing and reform tailwinds, with strong dividends creating positive carry and strategic partnerships.
Energy Opportunity: Energy sector seen as undervalued with cyclical headwinds and long-term demand tailwinds, creating attractive entry points despite near-term macro softness.
Market Structure: Current market led by mega-cap growth contrasts with historical outperformance of smaller, value-oriented stocks, suggesting mean reversion potential.
International Tilt: Preference for international equities given relative undervaluation versus the U.S., noting structural overweights in U.S. indices and potential for an international decade.
Sub-Industries in Focus: Reinsurance and Railroads examined for structural advantages; Trading Companies & Distributors emphasized through Japan’s sogo shosha model.
Risk Management: Emphasis on via negativa, durability over leverage, and buybacks at discounts, with caution on concentration risk in cap-weighted benchmarks.
Core Thesis: Bullish on Interactive Brokers (IBKR) due to automation-driven cost leadership, 75% pre-tax margins, and a clear path to multi-year account growth targeting 20M+ accounts globally.
Competitive Dynamics: IBKR’s execution-first model contrasts with Robinhood’s (HOOD) payment-for-order-flow reliance, leading to better all-in costs for sophisticated traders and institutional clients.
Peers and Positioning: Charles Schwab (SCHW) is cited for higher margin rates, limited global access, and duration risk in securities, while Goldman Sachs (GS) offers broader Asia access but at higher costs than IBKR’s tech-enabled platform.
International Markets: With payment-for-order-flow banned in many countries and demand for global market access rising, IBKR is positioned to take share internationally and benefit from secular growth in stock market participation worldwide.
Revenue Drivers: Commissions plus high-margin net interest income from client cash and margin balances drive results; interest-rate shifts create push-pull dynamics on cash balances and borrowing.
Optionality: New offerings like crypto trading, white-label B2B platforms, and Forecast Trader expand TAM and provide long-term growth levers beyond core brokerage.
Management and Governance: Founder-led culture prioritizing automation, transparency, and conservative balance sheet (no long-term debt); recent S&P 500 inclusion may increase visibility.
Risks and Valuation: Cyclicality, rate sensitivity, high current margin balances, and founder key-person/ownership concentration risks; valuation (~31x trailing P/E) is elevated but supported by strong growth and differentiated moat.
Market Inefficiency: The guest argues public markets have become less efficient, creating larger mispricings that reward long-term, fundamentals-driven investors.
Floor & Decor (FND): Positioned as a cost-advantaged disruptor in hard-surface flooring via direct sourcing and big-box, cash-and-carry model, with long runway for organic store growth.
US Housing: Thesis assumes cyclical weakness and pent-up demand in home improvement; eventual housing rebound should benefit FND while the company continues to take share.
Valuation & Sizing: Despite a high headline P/E due to depressed earnings, FND is assessed on intrinsic value and normalized cash flows; position sizes flex with margin of safety under a buy-and-optimize framework.
Kinsale Capital (KNSL): Specialty insurer with a technology-enabled cost advantage and disciplined underwriting in the E&S market, growing share from the regulated market while avoiding unprofitable policies.
Specialty Insurance: The E&S opportunity supports multi-year growth; KNSL targets prudent expansion, opportunistic buybacks when below intrinsic value, and maintains high ROE with surplus capital deployment.
Risks and Cycles: FND faces housing and renovation cyclicality, while KNSL navigates insurance hard/soft cycles and competitive behavior; both are managed with long-term forecasts and capital discipline.
Overall Approach: Emphasis on owning unique, high-quality businesses at discounts to intrinsic value, optimizing weights with volatility, and focusing on 5–10+ year outcomes over short-term market noise.
Aerospace Recovery: The team pivoted into post-COVID aerospace where air travel normalization and easing supply bottlenecks create multi-year tailwinds for engines and maintenance cycles.
Natural Gas Turbines: They see a sustained power generation upcycle driven by aging grid reinvestment and AI-related demand, broadening exposure from GE’s spin to names like Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy.
Key Buys/Sells: They bought GE on under-earning and cultural turnaround dynamics, and swapped out an overvalued COST position for III (3i Group) to access Action, a Costco-like retail growth story earlier in its runway.
Retail Lens: The Costco decision reflected valuation discipline and a preference for higher forward growth at lower multiples via 3i Group’s Action, highlighting opportunities in hypermarkets/discount retail frameworks.
AI: Beyond acknowledging AI as a secular growth driver, they integrated AI as a research partner to codify moat trajectory and culture, boosting idea breadth and monitoring while avoiding data-center-chasing herd behavior.
Portfolio Construction: They reduced correlation and broadened the research funnel with category tools and prioritization guardrails, shifting from pricey compounders to cyclicals with improving forward quality.
Process Payoff: Turnover and timing initially hurt optics in early 2023, but frozen-portfolio analysis shows the refreshed portfolio markedly outperformed the legacy mix by late 2023–2025.
Market Outlook: They expect ongoing benefits from supply/demand normalization, industrial upcycles, and power demand, reinforcing confidence in industrials and turbine/aerospace exposures.
Private Credit: Extensive discussion of the shift toward non-bank lending with equity-like returns, safety-first underwriting, and covenants driving strong performance and minimal losses.
Opportunistic Credit: Evolution from secondary-market trading to primary origination (e.g., L+900 with protections), now more than half of activity and spanning transitional, complex, and non-sponsored capital.
Direct Lending: Focus on founder/family-owned, non-sponsored borrowers via a Wells Fargo partnership to avoid crowded sponsor deals, leveraging proprietary sourcing and rigorous risk controls.
Distressed for Control: Framed as a deleveraging path to ownership akin to buyouts; used successfully around the GFC and remains a flexible tool within their private equity toolkit.
Middle Market: Firm positions itself as a full-spectrum middle-market investor across PE, credit, and real estate with a single-team model to enhance sourcing and underwriting edge.
Market Outlook: Late-cycle signals cited—tight spreads, complacency, opacity, and rising fraud—leading to a cautious, risk-focused stance.
Companies Mentioned: Contextual references include Blackstone (BX), Apollo (APO), KKR (KKR), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC), plus insurance partnerships (e.g., MassMutual/Martello Re), not specific stock pitches.
Opportunities & Risks: Anticipated private wealth inflows could compress returns and spur regulation; edge sought via proprietary sourcing, insurer partnerships, and disciplined underwriting.
Venture Secondaries: Guest details a strategy providing liquidity to startup employees by funding option exercises and purchasing common at board-approved FMV discounts.
Model-Driven Selection: Uses differentiated data and a machine-learning informed selection model to target the top 20% of VC-backed startups, acknowledging power-law dynamics and emphasizing diversification.
Private Markets Indexing: Positions the approach as a step toward indexing private markets, aiming for broad, systematic exposure and referencing industry moves like BlackRock’s focus on private-market data.
Startup Liquidity: Emphasizes the 90-day post-departure exercise crunch for employees and the opportunity to deliver programmatic liquidity solutions that aid recruiting and retention.
Portfolio Construction: Natural weights cluster around Series B–D with broad diversification across hundreds of positions, avoiding overexposed late-stage stacks and seeking one unit of every credible deal.
Market Outlook: Notes secondary markets remain anemic and liquidity events were scarce in recent years, but anticipates more competition as IPO and M&A windows reopen.
Opportunities and Risks: Key moat is proprietary data exhaust enabling price improvement and win rates; main risk is entry by large, well-capitalized asset managers compressing discounts.
Key Companies Mentioned: References Stripe, OpenAI, SpaceX, Gusto, and major banks (JPM, MS, GS, Citi, Wells, UBS) as market participants, not investment recommendations.
Core Thesis: Strong emphasis on backing emerging managers early across buyouts, venture, and hedge funds to capture excess returns and compounding relationships.
Independent Sponsors: Detailed case for supporting independent sponsors deal-by-deal to access inefficient markets, learn manager intangibles, and seed future Fund I opportunities.
Lower Middle Market: Preference for lower middle market founder-owned businesses where value creation is more controllable (pricing, add-ons, operations) and competition from mega-funds is limited.
Early Stage Venture: Focus on early stage venture (pre-seed/seed) with attention to ownership vs. fund size discipline, durability of operator networks, and power-law dynamics.
Long Short Equity: Day-one backing of concentrated long short equity stock pickers for better terms, liquidity alignment, and direct PM access; caution on short-side challenges and meme-stock squeezes.
Market Outlook: Fundraising is tougher post-pandemic; dispersion is widest in Fund I/II, creating both high-upside and high-risk outcomes.
Risks & Discipline: Emphasis on walking from bad deals, avoiding forced co-invest, and recognizing AI as a disruption risk to small businesses and certain buyout plays.
Notable Mentions: Companies cited as examples included Airbnb, Apple, Nvidia, Uber, Goldman Sachs, and others, without specific security recommendations.
Hybrid Capital: The guest outlines a strategy of providing junior, flexible capital to high-quality, sponsor-backed companies with substantial downside cushion and equity optionality.
Capital Solutions: He emphasizes bespoke structures for M&A and liquidity (DPI) needs, competing on speed, scale, and neutrality to solve private equity bid-ask and exit bottlenecks.
Private Credit: Detailed evolution from post-GFC growth to today’s competitive, tight-spread environment, with a view that outcomes are bounded and not catastrophic when structures and diversification are sound.
Direct Lending: Explains its rise as a competitor to syndicated loans, the role of leverage, and the need to recalibrate return expectations amid increased competition and tighter spreads.
NAV Financing: Describes return-of-capital trades where investors provide structured liquidity to PE sponsors, stressing alignment, realistic exit paths, and careful thesis-driven selection.
Preferred Equity: Discusses preferred and convertible preferred structures used to fund transformative M&A or partial liquidity, pricing for depth in the capital stack and prioritizing exits via refinancings or sales.
Market Outlook: Notes private equity’s maturity, elevated valuations, and limited exits, with dislocations creating attractive entry windows and 2021-like frothy periods being challenging.
Risk Management: Focus on accurate (not conservative) downside, portfolio diversification without fund-level leverage, strong sourcing funnels, and disciplined avoidance of bailout capital.
Quant Investing: The guest pitches a disciplined, diversified quantitative stock-picking approach aimed at all-weather returns using transparent, glass-box decision trees.
Machine Learning: Extensive discussion of a 20+ year use of machine learning in equity selection, emphasizing a forest of shallow trees, transparency, and avoiding overfitting/underfitting.
Model Construction: Signals are generated via decision trees blending financing, momentum, volatility, and context factors like company age to create precise alpha forecasts.
Portfolio Optimization: Portfolios are built daily with an in-house optimizer that balances alpha, risk constraints, and trading costs, with careful attention to liquidity and market impact.
Factor Evolution: Traditional signals like book-to-price were phased out as intangibles rose, while nuanced effects such as momentum consistency and deep drawdown reversals are incorporated.
Data Philosophy: Focus on long-history, high-quality financials, prices, and analyst estimates over alternative data arms races; models trained on roughly 50 years of market data.
AI Tools: LLMs are not used for stock selection due to in-sample contamination risk, but AI co-pilots are explored to enhance software development productivity.
Market Outlook: The guest observes increased inefficiencies in recent years potentially tied to passive flows, retail trading, or pod shops, creating opportunities for active quant strategies.
Private Credit: Strong, sustained opportunity highlighted by higher base rates, varied risk/return across sponsored and non-sponsored lending, and under-capitalization relative to demand.
Middle Market PE: Expected to outperform large/mega-cap PE due to lower entry multiples, faster revenue growth, fragmented ecosystems, and greater operational value-add.
PE Secondaries: Early-innings growth with low turnover versus total PE stock; seen as a key liquidity outlet for institutions and a buyer base for evergreen PE vehicles.
Evergreen PE: Pros include immediate deployment, vintage diversification, and J-curve mitigation; trade-offs are lower expected returns and semi-liquid structures versus drawdown funds.
401k Alternatives: Anticipated integration of alts into defined contribution via CITs and TDFs (10–15% sleeves), leveraging long horizons to capture illiquidity premia.
Longevity: Longer lifespans will reshape retirement products, insurance design, and portfolio construction, creating a multi-decade investment and product-development theme.
Market Structure & Risks: BDCs, interval, and tender-offer funds each fit distinct strategies; key risks center on illiquidity and expectation management, requiring advisor education and alignment.
Macro Outlook: Guest highlights unsustainable government spending, $38T U.S. debt, and money printing driving long-term inflation and weakening global growth.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver framed as real money with a long-term bullish trend despite current pullback, supported by central bank buying and distrust of fiat currencies.
De-dollarization: Growing shift away from the U.S. dollar as a store of value, with central banks and companies seeking alternatives due to inflation and policy risks.
BRICS: Expansion of BRICS currency frameworks and gold trading infrastructure viewed as a secular force reducing dollar dominance over time.
Trade War: Protectionism and global trade tensions seen as major risks that reduce productivity, distort capital allocation, and raise geopolitical instability.
Fed Policy: Critique that the Fed’s primary tool is printing money; near-term cuts could give way to structurally higher rates, asset bubbles, and malinvestment.
Companies Mentioned: Government stakes in Intel (INTC), MP Materials (MP), and Trilogy Metals (TMQ) cited as problematic subsidies that may foster crony capitalism rather than productivity.
Investor Takeaway: Favor gold and silver as long-term hedges against fiat debasement and geopolitical risk; acknowledge short-term volatility, market disruptions, and liquidity anomalies.
Market Outlook: Bearish on the S&P 500’s long-term returns despite a resilient economy, citing passive concentration, leverage, and inflated earnings versus free cash flow.
Oil & Gas Thesis: Bullish on oil and gas due to a multi-year underinvestment cycle, tight supply, resilient demand, and potential for prices to trend toward $100 over time.
Canada: Positive on Canadian equities and the loonie, with a focus on Canadian E&Ps benefiting from commodity tailwinds and improving momentum.
Energy M&A: Expects ongoing consolidation in Canadian energy as scale drives efficiency and returns, creating shareholder value through cost synergies and better capital allocation.
Key Deal: Cenovus (CVE) acquiring MEG Energy (MEG) after Strathcona Resources (SCR) initiated a hostile bid; estimated synergies of ~$400M EBITDA annually translate into multi-billion dollar value creation.
Holdings Highlight: The guest owns CVE, MEG, and SCR, viewing the transaction as emblematic of broader value creation via consolidation in Canadian E&Ps.
Policy Setup: Expects lower short-term rates and a steeper yield curve to boost bank lending and housing, implying stronger real-economy activity but more inflation.
Risks & Preferences: Skeptical of AI-driven capex booms and elevated tech valuations; avoids gold miners due to poor capital allocation, preferring oil equities at this stage.
Gold: The guest views the selloff as a liquidity event, with fundamentals intact due to strong central-bank buying, constrained supply, and hedging demand. He sees deeper dips toward support as clear buying opportunities and notes gold’s strength can logically coexist with a strong dollar during fiat rebalancing.
US Dollar: Despite de-dollarization headlines, BIS/IMF/SWIFT data support the dollar’s continued reserve dominance and usage in cross-border flows. The dollar’s strength reflects relative weakness in the euro and yen and improving US growth expectations.
US Equities: He argues valuations are not excessive relative to money supply growth and better-than-expected earnings, suggesting a bullish trend with potential year-end melt-up. Corrections are seen as buying opportunities as debasement supports risk assets.
Technology Leadership: Tech benefits most from liquidity and debasement, supported by superior margins and cash generation versus European peers. Concentration in megacaps will persist, but there are attractive opportunities across the other S&P names.
AI and Market Momentum: Nvidia’s surge toward $4T underscores persistent AI momentum despite bubble concerns. The guest frames this within broader tech strength rather than an imminent bubble burst.
Fed Policy: An expected 25 bps cut aids leveraged investors and restores credit access for consumers and SMEs, moving gradually toward neutral. Further cuts are likely as month-on-month inflation pressures remain subdued.
Trade and Geopolitics: US-Japan agreements reducing reliance on Chinese rare earths and stronger tech alliances point to a likely, monitored US-China deal. The US is strategically positioning for tech leadership, reinforcing dollar resilience.
Inflation Watch: Elevated money supply with low velocity keeps near-term inflation pressures muted, but a velocity uptick is the key risk. Monitoring a 2022-style flare-up is essential for risk management.
Fed/Liquidity Shift: The Fed cut rates 25 bps and ended QT, signaling a shift toward easier funding conditions even if not full QE yet.
Dollar & Yields: Higher-for-longer U.S. yields are supporting a stronger dollar, affecting risk assets and non-yielding commodities tactically.
Gold: Gold surged back above $4,000, aided by easing liquidity, central bank buying, and record demand trends per the World Gold Council.
Silver: Silver rebounded with the gold-silver ratio near 82, eying the $50 level as a key psychological threshold.
Agnico Eagle (AEM): Q3 production of ~866k oz with AISC ~$1,373/oz and strong margins; royalty costs rise with higher gold prices, pushing 2025 costs toward the top of guidance.
Semiconductors: Nvidia (NVDA) moved on headlines around China export discussions and Blackwell GPUs; policy outcomes could materially impact revenue drivers.
AI: The discussion highlighted AI/tech as a strategic U.S. advantage, with chip export policy central to maintaining leadership.
Trade/Tariffs: Asia trip headlines and a tentative China truce influence goods inflation and tech flows, with rare earths and energy deals in focus.
Market Outlook: U.S. equities are in a tech-led melt-up with deteriorating breadth, as many sectors lag while indices hit new highs.
AI: The guest believes we are in a multi-year secular AI boom, with strong CEO spend and productivity gains supporting continued growth.
Semiconductors: Semis are viewed as overbought and due for consolidation despite long-term AI tailwinds, with rotation from other sectors needed to sustain the rally.
Precious Metals: He advises trimming gold and silver, seeing a near-term leg down, a potential year-end bounce, and 2026 weakness if yields rise.
US Dollar: Expect a near-term bounce and eventual move higher, with a final dip potentially aiding commodities and EM before the dollar trend strengthens.
Real Estate Risk: Housing affordability is strained as mortgage rates have doubled and home prices surged, making the sector vulnerable even as rate cuts help borrowing costs.
Key Tickers: Nvidia (NVDA) is highlighted as a primary market leader, and the guest promotes Fundstrat’s new ETF, Granny Shots U.S. Large Cap Alpha (GRNY), as a systematic large-cap growth strategy.
Strategy: Emphasis on momentum, sentiment, and breadth; avoid trying to buy big dips and instead buy highs and sell higher using technical signals.
Sound Money: The guest frames the core thesis as owning analog sound money (gold) and digital sound money (Bitcoin), noting both compete within a “sound money” allocation.
Monetary Debasement: He argues persistent money printing and a likely return to QE will drive a long-term “monetary debasement trade,” benefiting assets governments can’t print.
Bitcoin: Adoption signals like a Gemini SATs-back credit card and institutional acceptance support the case; he expects new all-time highs and views BTC as relatively cheap versus gold now.
Gold and Silver: Central bank buying, shifting Wall Street sentiment, and potential policy signals (e.g., gold-backed bonds, Treasury interest) underpin a continued bullish outlook.
Market Liquidity: Bitcoin’s softness is read as a leading indicator of tight liquidity, with possible spillovers to mega-cap tech and broader equities.
Macro and Fed: The guest sees rising odds of renewed balance sheet expansion, yield-curve control, and higher inflation despite official “restrictive” rhetoric.
Institutional Signals: Mentions of JPMorgan’s “monetary debasement trade” framing and BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF highlight growing mainstream buy-in.
Risks and Opportunities: He flags stagflation risk, AI-driven layoffs pressuring employment, and the need to own scarce assets as a hedge against policy and currency debasement.
Market Outlook: The Fed’s rate cut is deemed largely ceremonial as market-based short rates remain elevated, signaling persistent funding stress.
US Treasuries: Extensive discussion of repo market tightness, QT ending, possible QE/SRF interventions, and the growing strain from heavy Treasury issuance.
Higher Rates: Expectation for sideways-to-higher yields as appropriate valuation reasserts, challenging the equity market’s reliance on easy money.
Inflation Risk: Government deficit spending is highlighted as a primary inflation driver; more funding support could stoke inflation and widen economic dispersion.
Gold: Positive stance on gold as an uncertainty/problem hedge rather than purely an inflation hedge, benefiting when macro stress rises.
Equities: Warning that equities could decline if inflation accelerates, as the easy-money era appears to be ending for now.
Policy Dynamics: Emphasis on spending restraint or risk a bond-market-imposed reckoning; calls for more Fed dissent to reduce groupthink.
Tickers Mentioned: No specific stock pitches; a brief ETF mention (WTBN) lacked sufficient discussion to qualify as an investment idea.
