Pitch Keyword: Yet Another Value Podcast

May 2026 Random Ramblings

Description: A market that refuses to go down, AI coming for the investor’s job, and MicroStrategy quietly becoming the entire preferred-equity … Transcript: All right, hello and welcome to yet another weekly podcast. I’m your host Andrew Walker. It is Wednesday, May 27th, and today I am going to do my monthly random ramblings. I […]

Pershing Square Challenge 2026 third place: Celsius $CELH

Description: Celsius trades at ~20x earnings while growing ~18% a year, cheaper than Monster (~34x) and even Coke (~25x) despite faster … Transcript: You’re about to listen to yet another value podcast with your host, me, Andrew Walker. Uh today we have I am so excited. One of my uh passion projects. Do do not […]

$DRVN Cruising through the Driven Brands thesis | Kyle Mowery GrizzlyRock Capital

Description: Driven Brands ($DRVN) puked on a February accounting restatement. Kyle Mowery (GrizzlyRock Capital) walks through why … Transcript: You’re about to listen to yet another value podcast with your host me, Andrew Walker. Today I have one of my favorite people in the industry, Kyle Mowy from Grizzly Rock Capital on. We’re going to […]

Investing in Biotech with Verdad Capital

  • Biotech Quant: Verdad Capital outlines a quantitative framework for biotech, with sector-specialist ownership as a core signal where consensus specialist ownership strongly correlates with better returns.
  • Insider Signals: Insider buying—especially from CFOs and non-CEO executives—shows durable predictive power over months, while CEO purchases are less informative in biotech due to routine selling behavior.
  • Shorting Approach: Biotech is fertile but dangerous for shorts; a diversified, risk-managed short book using signals like short interest, borrow cost, value, and momentum dampens volatility rather than chasing event outcomes.
  • Redefining Value: Traditional profit-based value fails in pre-revenue biotech, so they anchor value to cumulative spend (cash burn) relative to market cap, which outperforms other signals and helps drive rebalancing.
  • Momentum by Indication: They classify companies via clinical trial data to capture cohort momentum (e.g., obesity, mRNA), reflecting how themes and peer performance propagate across similar programs.
  • Market Structure: Biotech is a large slice of small caps and the least correlated sector, creating uncorrelated return potential when combined with disciplined quant factors and frequent rebalancing.
  • Ownership Nuances: Discussion includes specialist funds, pipes, warrants, and potential strategic stakes by big pharma as ongoing data enhancements to refine ownership-quality signals.
  • Examples Referenced: Illustrative mentions include Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, ARK Genomic Revolution ETF, and XBI, mainly to explain strategic stakes, M&A dynamics, and sector exposure.

Carriage House's Will Cleary on $FTAI

  • Core Pitch: FTAI Aviation (FTAI) is a vertically integrated provider of aftermarket jet engine power, differentiated by a high-velocity module swap model that saves airlines time and money while enhancing margins.
  • Competitive Moat: Scale, inventory depth, in-house MRO, and network effects create barriers to entry; traditional MROs face longer turn times and costlier work scopes, making FTAI’s solution compelling.
  • Asset-Light Transition: Strategic Capital Initiative (SCI) uses off-balance-sheet vehicles to acquire aircraft with captive service agreements, driving recurring, higher-ROIC growth in the aerospace products segment.
  • Short-Seller Rebuttal: Concerns about inflated margins were addressed by independent audits; profitability stems from low-cost runout/part-out engines and shorter lease terms, not accounting games.
  • Valuation and Comps: Compared with Heico (HEI), FTAI shows faster growth, higher margins, and superior returns, suggesting potential multiple expansion as margins rise toward 45–50% and SCI-backed volumes grow through 2027.
  • New Growth Vector: FTAI Power repurposes end-of-life engines into aeroderivative turbines for data centers, targeting rapid deployment, million-per-megawatt economics, and high-margin service revenues amid grid constraints.
  • Catalysts and Alignment: Possible GICS reclassification and future S&P 500 inclusion, alongside strong insider ownership and buying, reinforce confidence in sustained growth and shareholder alignment.

UK Homebuilders with Christian Olesen from Olesen Value Fund

  • Core Thesis: Bullish on UK homebuilders as a cyclical recovery play, with a primary focus on Bellway (BWY) due to attractive valuation and conservative management.
  • Valuation Upside: Bellway trades below tangible book (~0.9x) despite mid-teens through-cycle ROE, with potential rerating to ~1.5x book as demand normalizes and book value compounds.
  • Demand/Supply Dynamics: Rate-driven demand drop created cyclical weakness, but long-run UK housing demand is inelastic and underpinned by population growth; focus is outside London where affordability is more reasonable.
  • Industry Quality: Post-GFC discipline has improved with more rational land buying, healthier balance sheets, and reduced bidding wars, limiting downside risks from land write-downs.
  • Capital Allocation: Bellway introduced a capital framework featuring buybacks and modest leverage (target 15–20% net debt to capital) to improve asset turnover and shareholder returns.
  • Policy Tailwinds: Planning reforms and potential demand-stimulus programs could lift volumes; UK equity pessimism and foreign interest provide a rerating setup.
  • Peer Insights: Persimmon (PSN) runs a lower price-point model with structurally lower land costs and strong returns; James Latham (LTHM) is a quality wood panels distributor leveraged to RMI demand.
  • Risks: UK macro weakness and low consumer confidence persist, but downside appears limited given asset-backed books, low leverage, and diversified geographic exposure.

Lake Cornelia Capital's Judd Arnold on $TOI and a bunch of other stuff

  • Inflection Investing: Emphasis on finding liquid stories before or at inflection points, prioritizing liquidity and right-tail potential over strict valuation screens.
  • TOI (The Oncology Institute): Pitched as a differentiated oncology services model using capitation to undercut hospital costs, with Florida-led expansion, improving margins, and potential private equity takeout.
  • Healthcare Services: Discussion centered on capitation economics, payer relationships (Medicare Advantage), MSO vs. owned clinics, and scalability in dense markets like Florida and Texas.
  • SOC (Sable Offshore): Framed as an option-like offshore oil story with significant upside if regulatory milestones clear, but with notable California regulatory and timing risks.
  • AI Data Centers: Highlighted via Nebius as an example where liquidity and narrative drive attention, with strong investor appetite for AI infrastructure plays.
  • Portfolio Construction: Sizing based on downside containment and ability to exit quickly; prefer liquid names and ramp sizing as conviction builds post-inflection.
  • Risk Considerations: For TOI, execution and payer/CMS dynamics; for SOC, regulatory shocks; across trades, guarding against downside jump risk and narrative shifts.
  • Market Approach: Less tethered to traditional valuation multiples; focus on sectors and stories where “people will care,” enabling rapid re-rating.

Gymkhana Partners' Andrei Stetsenko on Maharashtra Scooters and Indian Holdcos

  • Core Thesis: Maharashtra Scooters (MAHSCOOTER) is an Indian listed holdco trading at roughly a 50% discount to NAV, with a ~$2B market cap versus ~$4B of listed assets and no debt.
  • Key Assets: NAV is dominated by Bajaj Finserv (BAJAJFINSV), Bajaj Finance (BAJFINANCE), and Bajaj Auto (BAJAJ-AUTO), complemented by the parent holdco Bajaj Holdings (BAJAJHLDNG).
  • Compounding Engines: Bajaj Finance (consumer finance/NBFC) and Bajaj Finserv (multi-line insurance and financial services) are positioned to compound over the long term, with management emphasizing underwriting discipline over rapid, risky growth.
  • Insurance Upside: India’s insurance market remains early with many first-time buyers; Bajaj Finserv’s buyout of Allianz JVs and focus on prudent pricing supports durable growth in multi-line insurance.
  • Governance & Quality: The Bajaj group is viewed as top-tier on corporate governance, with professionalization trends and alignment shifting toward market-cap creation for an increasingly broad family shareholder base.
  • Regulatory Tailwind: SEBI’s push to reduce holdco discounts (including enabling tax-efficient share distributions and improving dividend treatment) mirrors Japan-style reforms and could catalyze value unlocks.
  • Potential Catalysts: Options include tax-efficient distributions of underlying shares, more buybacks/tenders (e.g., precedent at BAJAJ-AUTO), and potential actions by BAJAJHLDNG, which has already sold holdings and increased dividends.
  • Macro Backdrop: Bullish India setup—fastest-growing major economy, favorable demographics, accelerating urbanization, and infrastructure build-out—supports sustained earnings growth for core holdings.

Chadd Garcia breaks down WaterBridge's post-IPO value creation story $WBI

  • Main Pitch – WaterBridge (WBI): Leading produced water processor in the Delaware Basin with contracted volumes, robust pore space access, and a vast pipeline network; positioned for a re-rating as investors recognize its waste-industry parallels.
  • Valuation & Growth: Viewed as mispriced midstream at IPO, but with ~double-digit volume growth, rising pricing via MVCs, and potential EBITDA ramp from ~$450M (2025) toward ~$900M pre-2030, supported by 20%+ unlevered ROIC projects and fast paybacks.
  • LandBridge (LB) Synergy: Sister company owns pore space/land rights critical for injection, enabling WaterBridge’s network advantage; conflicts managed via policies and independent committees, with customer-shareholder alignment acting as a check.
  • Key Stakeholders & Validations: Devon Energy (DVN) owns ~20% and secured long-dated pore space, committing to WaterBridge delivery; Diamondback (FANG) history with Rattler/Deep Blue highlights consolidation logic; Waste Connections (WCN) deals in oilfield waste validate the waste-comp framework.
  • Industry Framing: Covered by midstream analysts, yet economics resemble waste management (municipal waste comps trade mid-teens EBITDA multiples) with lower maintenance capex due to lack of truck fleets and network redundancy.
  • Regulatory & Environmental: Texas tightened disposal pressure rules in 2024, aligning with WaterBridge’s under-pressurized best practices; NM-to-TX cross-border permitting dynamic remains, with network scale mitigating operational risks.
  • Macro & Volumes: Produced water volumes are resilient as wells age and water cuts rise (e.g., 4:1 trending toward 6:1), even if drilling slows; Delaware Basin remains a low-cost locus within the Permian Basin.
  • Capital Allocation & Outlook: Near-term cash flow reinvested in high-return growth; over time expect modest dividend and opportunistic buybacks; core theme spans Produced Water, Waste Management parallels, and Midstream Pipelines misclassification.

Shining a light on Golden Entertainment's "wealth transfer" $GDEN

  • Golden Entertainment (GDEN) Take-Private: The episode centers on GDEN’s proposed sale-leaseback plus management-led take-private, described as a dramatic wealth transfer from minority shareholders to insiders.
  • Sale-Leaseback with VICI (VICI): VICI will acquire GDEN’s real estate and receive $87M in annual rent, while GDEN shareholders get ~0.9 VICI shares; key rent terms were only disclosed in VICI’s press release.
  • Valuation Discrepancy: After rent, GDEN’s opco is estimated at ~$70M EBITDA (2024 ~$155M EBITDA minus $87M rent), which at 5.5x implies ~$376M (~$14/share) versus management’s $2.75/share bid, a ~$300M shortfall to minorities.
  • Casinos & Gaming Context: Management previously highlighted the attractiveness of Nevada-based assets and sale-leaseback value, backed by share buybacks near $30, then removed presentations and call archives from the IR site.
  • Process & Regulatory Risks: Go-shops in regulated gaming are fraught due to licensing and management influence; any go-shop should be transparent, with VICI’s sale-leaseback terms portable to competing bidders.
  • Shareholder Action Plan: Push for separate votes on the sale-leaseback and the opco purchase, enabling acceptance of the real estate monetization while rejecting an undervalued opco take-private.
  • Overall Perspective: Sale-leasebacks are valid value-creation tools, but the opco pricing is deemed egregiously low; restructuring could preserve upside for GDEN shareholders while allowing management participation at a fair price.

October 2025 Random Market Ramblings

  • Investment Philosophy: The podcast discusses the concept of risk riding, highlighting how investments that appear successful may carry hidden risks, using examples like hurricane insurance and big tech companies facing antitrust threats.
  • Buffett’s Legacy: Warren Buffett’s ability to outperform the S&P 500 over the past 20-30 years is examined, emphasizing his strategic decisions during the financial crisis and his age as a potential risk factor in investment performance.
  • Company Spending: Concerns are raised about companies spending excessively on investor relations, both in terms of time and money, questioning whether such expenditures reflect poor management of shareholder resources.
  • Averaging Up vs. Averaging Down: The podcast explores the notion that investors often prefer to average down rather than average up, suggesting that there is potential alpha in buying stocks that have already appreciated in value.
  • Valuation Insights: The idea that a stock can be cheaper today than yesterday is discussed, particularly when positive developments increase earnings potential, challenging investors to reassess valuation metrics.
  • Behavioral Finance: The challenges of avoiding emotional biases in investment decisions are highlighted, especially when stocks perform well, prompting investors to reconsider their assumptions and risk tolerance.
  • Personal Announcement: The host shares a personal update about expecting a second child, indicating a temporary hiatus in the podcast’s schedule due to upcoming family commitments.

SemiAnalysis' Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros on all things datacenter / power

  • Data Center Power Trends: The podcast discusses the increasing demand for on-site gas power solutions for data centers, highlighting the use of modular units and reciprocating engines to meet large-scale power needs more quickly than traditional methods.
  • Investment in Natural Gas Infrastructure: There is a significant focus on the deployment of natural gas turbines and engines, with companies like GE and Caterpillar providing solutions to meet the growing power demands of data centers, particularly for AI labs and hyperscalers.
  • Capex Growth in Hyperscalers: The conversation highlights the substantial capital expenditure growth expected from major hyperscalers like Meta, Amazon, and Google, with projections significantly exceeding current street estimates, driven by the need for increased data center capacity.
  • Coreweave’s Strategic Position: Coreweave’s rapid expansion and strategic partnerships, particularly in securing power and data center capacity, are discussed as key factors in its ability to compete with larger hyperscalers despite potential risks in a down cycle.
  • Oracle’s AI Strategy: Oracle’s aggressive investment in AI infrastructure, including long-term contracts with companies like OpenAI, is seen as a bold move to leverage its balance sheet and expand its cloud business, despite inherent risks.
  • Power Efficiency and Future Data Centers: The discussion touches on the potential for improvements in power efficiency in data centers, with the possibility of future data centers being built in more remote locations as power and infrastructure challenges are addressed.
  • Robotics Market Outlook: The podcast introduces a framework for understanding the robotics market, with levels of autonomy similar to those used in automotive, and discusses the potential for growth in mobile robotics and humanoids.

August 2025 Random Ramblings

  • Market Outlook: The current market is described as a “tale of two cities,” with AI-related stocks performing exceptionally well, while traditional sectors like retail and telecom are struggling.
  • Investment Strategy: The podcast highlights the use of Portrait Analytics for creating bespoke stock screens, focusing on companies with specific financial behaviors, such as buying back shares after an earnings miss.
  • Company Insights: Discussion on Crocs and other retailers facing significant stock declines despite buybacks, questioning the effectiveness of their financial strategies.
  • Media and Marketing: The podcast explores the concept of “hot girl marketing” and its questionable ROI, using Sydney Sweeney’s involvement with brands like Hey Dude and American Eagle as examples.
  • Challenge Trade: A notable trade between John Paulson and Carl Icahn involving BHC shares is highlighted as a fascinating example of a direct challenge trade, raising questions about insider insights and financial engineering.
  • Investment Philosophy: Emphasis on the importance of identifying when to “swing” on an investment, especially when possessing unique insights or an edge, and the challenges of acting on new information.

Perfecting the Investing Craft with Caro-Kann’s Artem Fokin

  • Investment Process: The podcast focuses on improving the investment process, emphasizing the importance of continuous learning and iteration in investing as a craft.
  • AI and Expert Calls: AI and expert calls are highlighted as valuable tools for enhancing investment research, with AI seen as a way to process large amounts of information and expert calls providing unique industry insights.
  • Market Impact of AI: There is a discussion on how AI might make markets more consensus-driven, potentially creating opportunities for investors who can identify non-obvious insights not captured by AI.
  • Customer Focus: A key takeaway is the increased focus on understanding customer value propositions and satisfaction, as this can provide critical insights into a company’s potential for success.
  • Investment Community: The podcast touches on the small cap investment community, emphasizing the importance of networking and sharing ideas while being cautious of groupthink and maintaining independent conviction.
  • Risk and Sizing: The conversation includes considerations on risk management and position sizing, with a focus on balancing expected returns with potential risks, especially in leveraged investments.
  • Continuous Improvement: Both hosts stress the importance of continuously refining their investment processes and learning from past mistakes to enhance future investment decisions.

Guinea Value's Jingshu Zhang on $EDU

  • Company Focus: The podcast discusses New Oriental Education (EDU), a Chinese education service company, highlighting its history of strong capital compounding and recent challenges due to regulatory changes in China.
  • Regulatory Impact: New Oriental’s stock experienced a significant drop due to China’s “double reduction” policy, which aimed to reduce students’ homework and after-school tutoring, causing a 95% stock collapse in 2021.
  • Business Resilience: Despite regulatory challenges, New Oriental has shown resilience, rebounding 350% from its lows, and is considered undervalued by the guest, who cites the company’s strong brand awareness and ethical leadership.
  • Financial Strength: The company boasts a fortress balance sheet with $5 billion in cash and a strategic investment in East Buy, a publicly traded company, which together represent a significant portion of its market cap.
  • Capital Allocation: New Oriental has committed to returning 50% of net income to shareholders, and there is ongoing dialogue with major shareholders to potentially increase this payout, reflecting a shift towards more shareholder-friendly capital allocation.
  • AI and Market Dynamics: The discussion highlights the potential impact of AI on the education sector, with New Oriental leveraging AI to enhance its offerings, though concerns about increased competition and market fragmentation remain.
  • Strategic Diversification: The company’s foray into live-streaming e-commerce, initially to provide employment for displaced teachers, has become a profitable venture, illustrating its adaptability and strategic diversification.

How to get a job in investing

  • Target Audience: The podcast is aimed at young individuals, such as college or MBA students, looking to break into public market investing.
  • Job Search Strategy: Emphasizes the importance of personalized outreach when applying for jobs, suggesting that applicants should demonstrate genuine interest and research about the firms they contact.
  • Investment Credentials: Recommends obtaining a CFA Level 1 certification as a signal of commitment and competence in finance, especially for those transitioning from non-investment roles.
  • Practical Experience: Encourages opening a brokerage account to gain firsthand investing experience, which can be discussed during interviews.
  • Investment Pitch: Highlights the necessity of having a well-researched investment pitch that goes beyond basic financial metrics and includes unique insights or scuttlebutt research.
  • Substack Strategy: Advises starting a Substack under a pseudonym to develop investment ideas and writing skills, which can also help build a network and attract job opportunities.
  • Networking and Outreach: Suggests leveraging Substack and personalized emails to connect with industry professionals, offering to share investment ideas as a way to engage and build relationships.
  • Continuous Improvement: Stresses the importance of feedback and iteration in improving investment skills and writing, positioning oneself for serendipitous opportunities in the investment field.

Railroader (August 2025 fintwit book club)

  • Investment Theme: The podcast discusses the book “Railroader,” focusing on Hunter Harrison’s transformative impact on the railroad industry through precision scheduled railroading, which significantly improved operational efficiency.
  • Market Insights: The consolidation trend in the railroad industry is highlighted, with potential mergers like Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern, and the strategic maneuvers by major players such as Warren Buffett’s BNSF.
  • Company Discussions: Hunter Harrison’s leadership at multiple railroads, including CN and CSX, is examined, showcasing his ability to drastically improve operating ratios and shareholder value, despite his controversial management style.
  • Opportunities and Risks: The podcast explores the balance between operational efficiency and customer satisfaction, noting Harrison’s approach often led to customer and employee dissatisfaction due to his aggressive cost-cutting measures.
  • Activist Investing: Bill Ackman’s involvement through Pershing Square and Mantle Ridge in railroad investments is discussed, illustrating the role of activist investors in driving corporate change and the financial strategies they employ.
  • Leadership and Management: Insights into board dynamics and CEO succession highlight the challenges and strategies involved in managing large corporations, particularly in capital-intensive industries like railroads.
  • Key Takeaways: The discussion underscores the importance of strategic leadership and innovation in transforming traditional industries, with Hunter Harrison’s legacy serving as a case study in effective, albeit contentious, corporate management.

Join for free and get access to the buyside

Get insights from the world's most influential hedge fund investors direct to your inbox

join for free
buysidedigest hedge fund letters for investors

Follow Us On: