'$12k Minimum' for GOLD This Cycle – 'We Can Go a LOT Higher': Peter Schiff
Summary
Gold Market Outlook: Peter Schiff predicts gold prices could reach at least $12,000 per ounce, driven by U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, and potential dollar and sovereign debt crises.
Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed's potential rate cuts amidst rising inflation and political pressure are seen as detrimental, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and higher gold prices.
Precious Metals Investment: Gold and silver mining stocks are outperforming, with significant potential for further gains as they remain undervalued compared to current and future gold prices.
U.S. Dollar Decline: The U.S. dollar has lost 50% of its value against gold in the past three years, with foreign central banks increasing gold reserves, indicating a shift away from dollar reliance.
Global Economic Shifts: The strengthening alliances between countries like China and Russia are seen as a challenge to U.S. economic dominance, potentially impacting global trade dynamics.
Market Valuation Concerns: Despite high valuations in tech and AI stocks, Schiff emphasizes the long-term decline of U.S. stock markets in real terms, advocating for investments in gold and mining stocks.
Political and Economic Risks: The politicization of the Fed and potential privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac could exacerbate economic instability and inflation, further boosting gold's appeal.
Transcript
Hello and welcome into commodity culture where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodity sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm thrilled to welcome Peter Schiff to the program, economist and global strategist at Europacific Asset Management and the host of the Peter Schiff show. With gold hitting new all-time highs and silver breaking above $40 and climbing, we're going deep on the precious metals markets today and getting Peter's latest thoughts on the metals and the mining stocks, the factors driving gold and silver and why he thinks we'll definitely see $10,000 gold and $200 silver this cycle. We also discussed the Fed abandoning their 2% inflation target and signaling they will be cutting rates up ahead in the face of rising inflation and political pressure. What will the implications be for financial markets and the economy? All of this and so much more ahead. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Peter Schiff. Peter Schiff, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Obviously, a very exciting day for commodities as you were mentioning before we hit record today, but particularly for the gold sector. Gold hitting new all-time highs now at around $3,600 an ounce. This is after it was in a consolidation pattern for around 4 months. What do you think is driving this continued strength in the gold market? And is this still early innings for this bull cycle in your view? Yeah, in fact, I think this cycle really just got started after that consolidation. But I think the leg started in 2024 when we broke above 2,000 and we quietly moved from 2,000 to 3,000 and nobody noticed it. In fact, when gold was hanging out at 20,000, a lot of analysts put sell recommendations on pneumont and barrack because they thought that gold had topped and they didn't see any any upside. And then I think when Trump won, a lot of people expected the gold to fall because the economy was going to boom and Trump was going to do all this great stuff about shrinking the deficit, making America great again. Um, but you know, now it's becoming more obvious that none of that was true. But I think this is a new leg. We spent really over 10 years. Remember go the first leg of the bull market was 2001 to 2011. Gold went from under 300 to,900. So it increased by sixfold, right? Then it really went sideways from 2011 to 2024. Gold traded between 201,500,700. I mean, it initially pulled back to a,000. It got to a,50 in 2015. So, it held a thousand, went back up, but only made a new high briefly during the 2020 COVID crisis. It poked its head above 2,000, but then, you know, it got chopped off and and it went back down. But that's a huge base that we built around 2000 as a you know, as a floor now because it was resistance, it was the ceiling, now it's the support. And now we're just starting another leg, which I think will be at least symmetrical to the prior leg. So, we had the move from under 300 to,900 consolidation. That was a six-fold increase. If you assume we go up sixfold from 20,000, that's $12,000 gold. So, I kind of at a minimum, I think that that's where we're headed. But if we end up having a dollar crisis and a US sovereign debt crisis, we could go a lot higher than that. And um and and I think that there's there's a good chance that that's going to happen. You ask me what's driving this. Uh it it is the monetary and fiscal policy of the United States which are disasters. And in fact following the weak jobs report that we got today. And by the way, you know, the jobs market has never been this weak outside of a recession. In fact, the last two times you had a labor market as weak as the one we got right now, it was the great recession of 2008 2009 with the financial crisis or 2020 as we were shutting the whole economy down because of COVID. So, you know, the Fed has been mischaracterizing this labor market. Powell kept saying we have a really strong labor market. We have a really strong market. He was wrong the entire time. We have a weak labor market. And it and you would even see how much weaker it was if we had honest statistics. Uh but we don't. But even with the statistics we have, you know, we had outright job decline in June. We lost 13,000 jobs in June. The August number was just plus 22,000. Manufacturing lost 13,000. And the U6 unemployment rate, which is more relevant than the headline rate of 4.3, is 8.1. So we've got rising unemployment. Uh, and inflation, you know, the Fed said that the labor market was strong, but inflation is weak. They got it backwards. The labor market is weak, inflation is strong. And I think that's really what's helping to drive the move in gold now and and down in the dollar is the Fed is about to start cutting rates into rising inflation. And it's hard to imagine when they've done that before because inflation is above their target and rising. and they're going to cut into that. So, it's the opposite of what they should be doing. Even though the economy is weak, inflation is strong. And that should be the primary mandate is to get inflation back down. But they're going to abdicate that role because of the political pressure uh to try to artificially stimulate the economy, the housing market. Uh so, gold is going to take off from here. You know, you know, we're we basically just left the launch pad and we got a long way to go. But you know the whole time that gold was going sideways for three or four months, gold stocks were quietly going up, gold stocks went up 30 40% while the price of gold traded sideways. And that's something we haven't seen during the entirety of the bull market because the the investors in mining stocks have never believed the rally. They've been skeptical the entire time. They're finally starting to accept the fact that gold's not going to crash. But these gold stocks are not priced for current gold prices, let alone the future gold prices. But at least they're pricing out a crash. Now, people accept, okay, gold is going to be around this level, so we got to bid up these stocks cuz they're still really cheap. Even though they're up better than 90% on the year, and gold mining stocks are the number one performing sector in the market this year, and they're hardly ever discussed. No one talks about them. I think Pneumont Mining is the number one performing stock in the S&P 500. You know, the only gold stock in the S&P 500 and it's beating all the tech stocks. Yet, probably of all the stocks in the S&P 500, Pneumon is probably the one that's the least owned. And now, a quick break to hear from our sponsor, Arc Silver Gold, Osmium owner. Ian Everard is considered one of the most honest and levelheaded gold and silver dealers in the United States. praised even by his competitors. So give him a call today to take advantage of the specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins mint fresh only $247 cents over spot. Mint fresh silver maple leaves 2025 coins 1 oz $2.87 over spot while supplies last. reach out today at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, I want to get into the gold mining sector as well as the Fed abandoning seemingly abandoning their 2% inflation target in just a moment. But first, I want to talk about the fact that the US dollar has now lost 50% of its value versus gold in the past 3 years. You've spoken before on this show about gold potentially re-entering the monetary system at some point, and it seems in some ways it's starting to force itself back into its role as the superior form of money. What do you make of this significant and rapid drop in the USD versus gold? And do you think governments will eventually be forced to reintroduce gold to the monetary system in one form or another? Well, I think that is going to happen. I think it's pretty clear if you look at the main buyers of gold the past couple years has been foreign central banks. Why are they doing that? I think they're preparing uh to replace uh their dollars with gold. I think gold is going to become the primary reserve asset for central banks and that's going to be a gamecher for the United States because the world is not going to need our dollars anymore. Well, if they don't need our dollars, then how are we going to buy all the stuff that we need? Because we don't produce it. And how are we going to finance our debt? Because we've been relying on foreigners to finance that debt because they have the savings that that we lack. So, it's a big problem for the US. But I think from a monetary perspective, you're going to see I think people utilizing gold using the technology that exists today, whether it's onchain with, you know, uh tokenized versions of gold or whether it's just through uh proprietary uh closed systems where you know you uh the custodian has the gold and just uses technology to allocate ownership digitally so that people can transact business uh receive and make payments uh send money and receive money uh using gold right just like using PayPal or Venmo or any other uh you know zel or any of these things you can just use gold you know you don't have to transfer your gold if I wanted to buy something from you uh and you wanted me to pay you uh you know a gram of gold for it right whatever that is 30 40 bucks whatever right I don't have to send you a little bit of gold in an envelope and mail it to you. If if the if the gold is held in a custodian and I have it tokenized in my wallet, I can just email or text you the you know the Graham and now the ownership of the gold goes from me to you. So now you own the gold, not me anymore. You've got it. It's in a vault. Now if you want the gold, you can you can have them ship it to you. But why do that? just hold on to the ownership receipt because now if you want to buy something you can pay with gold because the guy that wants to sell you that he wants gold too. Why would people prefer gold to dollars? Because they hold their gold holds its value. Why why would I want dollars when I can have gold? You know, it's like why why why use the post office when I can send something by FedEx, right? that that the free market has provided me with a better alternative than the government. Right? Why do people use Uber and Lyft? Because taxis are too expensive. Why are taxes expensive? Because the government provides the licenses and regulates them and so they're they're expensive. The free market alternative is well, I'll just call an Uber, right? So the equivalent of an Uber in the monetary system is gold, right? Gold is the free market's money. Fiat is government money and it's lousy because it loses its value. The longer you hold it, the less it's worth. The opposite is true of gold. The longer you hold your gold, the more it's worth. So, given a choice, which would you hold? Very well said. Now, the last time I had you on, you told me that you think $100 silver is still too cheap. We've now broken out above $40 and to get back to the 1980 $50 high adjusted for inflation, silver would need to be nearly $200 an ounce. Is that a realistic target in your view? And if so, walk us through how you think we could get there. Well, it's very realistic. I mean, especially if you have $10,000 gold, uh $200 silver, what is that? 50 to1. I mean, so um that's very realistic. And I think potentially silver could go higher than that. But right now it's above 41. It does have this psychological and not just psychological real resistance at 50 because we have a double top there. Uh that goes back to 1980 and then again we hit it in 2011. So silver has not broken out yet. While gold has, silver is still in this range. So I do expect that it will, you know, there'll be some overhead resistance. But I think once silver is above 50, once we're at 51, 52, and 50 becomes the support, I think it's not going to take long for silver to double to 100. I think that move will happen quickly. It may happen in a matter of months, right? Because once we take out that resistance, there's there's nothing there. And I think there's also a lot of shorts out there in silver that, you know, are going to be in a lot of trouble trying to trying to cover those shorts and buy silver that really doesn't exist. Let's hone in on the gold and silver mining sector now. Obviously, vastly outperforming the metals themselves and completely crushing the broad market. You mentioned pneumont is one of the best or the best performer in the S&P 500 right now. We've seen the GDX and SIL ETFs both up over 80% year to date. and yet it's crickets from the mainstream media at this point. How are you currently viewing the opportunity in precious metals mining stocks? And when do you think Main Street and the financial media and financial adviserss will catch on to the fact that we're in a bull market for the miners? You know, I actually like the fact that this bull market isn't on anybody's radar because I just assume Wall Street buy into the market later at much higher prices. um they don't need to get in now. I want my clients to get in now. And I, you know, the less competition, the better. I just want to get as much, you know, gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks as I can. And the last thing I want is, you know, Meil Lynch and Goldman Sachs telling all their clients to buy, right? Because that's going to make it more expensive for my clients. So, the longer they ignore this bull market, the better as far as I'm concerned. Like, I'm in no hurry. I waited plenty of time for this and I'm in no hurry to speed it up right now. Um, but I do look at that as a positive sign that nobody's invested. The public, you know, has no idea. You know, you have one group of people that are still fixated on Bitcoin. Uh, and they're buying Bitcoin instead of gold. Uh, although Bke Kelly, I just read that he just put $50 million into gold. So maybe he's figuring out that Bitcoin is the is the wrong way to go. But you know, it's interesting that Bitcoin is barely up today. And Bitcoin is more than 15% below its peak priced in gold from 2021. So four years, Bitcoin has been losing value relative to gold despite all the marketing hype surrounding Bitcoin. all the all the ETFs that were established, you know, uh the NFTts, uh the Super Bowl ads, the celebrity endorsements, Donald Trump and the strategic Bitcoin reserve and the Bitcoin ZAR and making Bitcoin the American the capital of the world, right? All that pump and they can't even get Bitcoin to go up. So, what does that tell you? But what is going up is the one thing that's not getting any hype and that's and that's gold. and now silver, you know, going up as well, but not not into record territory. So, these gold stocks, I think, are still extremely cheap. Um, they could double again from here, and I I don't think they'd be expensive, especially considering that if the gold stocks double from here, gold's going to be a lot higher. So, it's like they still wouldn't have caught up to where they should be. So, we got a long way to go in the mining stocks. In fact, you know, in April of this year, I kind of aggravated some of the guys at Shift Gold because I put out this report that said the best way to buy gold, and it was to buy the gold mining stocks. And I was telling my clients for the first time not to buy gold. And gold was around 3,200, 3,300. And I said, "Look, I'm a gold bull. I love gold, but these gold stocks are so cheap that it doesn't make any sense to buy gold above ground. Just buy it while it's still in the ground because it's so cheap." And while gold went sideways for all those months, the gold stocks were soaring. And I I they're not as cheap as they were obviously, but they're still very cheap. And I still think people should be buying gold stocks and gold now, uh, and physical silver, any silver mining stocks. So, you know, Shift Gold is my gold company. what you want to don't do. There's so many unfortunately shysters in the gold industry, uh, and they rip off their their their customers by pushing them into these numismatics or collectible coins, fake numismatics, proof sets, uh, you know, odd odd weighted, you know, coins you've never heard of. And they do that because the markups are 30, 40, 50% or more. Uh, and so you need the price of gold to go up 50% just to break even. So why buy gold at 3,600 if you know you need 5,000 just to get out even. So at Shift Gold, you know, we're marking up gold like 1%. So if you bought gold yesterday, you could sell it back today and make a profit, right? So you that you don't want to get ripped off. So going to shift gold, you're going to get the best prices. You're going to get just bullion. Uh, we're not going to try to push you into something that makes us money. We're going to sell you what you need to make yourself money. Uh, my my goal is to make a little money on volume, not on ripping people off. But that's also interesting. Like, Shift Gold's phones are not ringing off the hook. I mean, it's it's slow. And that's the same throughout the industry. And what the Shift Gold guys have been telling me, our reps, is that customers have been reluctant to buy because they're worried about buying the high. And I've been telling our customers all year, you got to buy the high because that's all that you're going to have the opportunity to do. The problem is the longer you wait, the higher the high is going to be. So, you just might as well buy now. I mean, because you're not going to get a big enough pullback. You'll get some pullbacks, but you know, why wait? It's not going to be enough to make a big difference. And the risk is that by the time you get a pullback, it's pulling back from a price that's much higher than if you just bought it right now. You know, I don't see any like panic to buy. Gold's not moving up a hundred, $200 a day. I mean, that's going to happen. I mean, it moves up 10 bucks, 20 bucks. I mean, today $50 is a big move because we got data. Um, but, you know, I haven't seen anything crazy. The gold stocks go up 2%, 3%, maybe 4% in a day, then they pull back. They're not up 10% in a day. They will be eventually, but we're not there yet. So, you know, people should get on board on the mining on the metal at Shift Gold and Gold stocks. You know, my gold fund, I'm very partial to my gold fund that's managed by Adrian Day. But I think the the hidden value in my gold fund is our portfolio of very small junior miners. That would be almost impossible to buy today uh given the liquidity. But these stocks haven't moved the way the big ones have because the money that has been flowing in has been buying the pneumonts and the barracks and ag eagles and the Franco Nevada and Ken Ross and I am gold. I mean they're not buying the little ones. That's going to happen. That's next. And I think they're really going to move. So you can get into that exposure. We've got all the big ones in my gold fund. Uh but it's the little ones that I think are the hidden value. And you could buy my fund no load pretty much anywhere. The symbol is EPGIX, Europacific Gold Fund, EPGIX. Uh, all discount brokers have it. That's a no-load version. Or just go to my website, europac.com. You can, if you don't have a brokerage account, you can just go to my website and buy my mutual fund right off my site. And so, you don't even need a brokerage account. You just buy it directly from europac.com. Great. Well, there will be links in the description to both Shift Gold and Europac.com. I want to shift over to the blatant politicizing of the Fed with Trump publicly attacking Powell regularly on the issue of lowering rates. It looks like Powell has capitulated as you mentioned earlier seeming to indicate that they would be abandoning their 2% inflation target. We all know the inflation numbers they put out are so egregiously manipulated that it's nowhere near 2%. But now Powell is basically confessing that even with how much they fudge the numbers, we're still not going back to 2%. What do you make of all this and and what do you think the implications will be of a rate cut up ahead? Well, I think it's going to be obvious to the markets that the rate cut is politically motivated. Also, that Donald Trump is trying to basically hijack the Fed and fill it with his cronies uh who will make monetary policy to make the president look good, not to uh uh deliver on the Fed's mandate of controlling inflation. I think this is going to be very negative for the dollar. I think there's a real risk that the Supreme Court upholds Donald Trump's authority to fire uh Fed governors. I think the Fed may the Supreme Court may uh say that a truly independent Fed is not constitutional and there must be oversight. Uh they must be beholden to somebody who's elected and that would be the president and maybe Congress because Congress approves the appointments. Uh but if the president gets to nominate them, the Supreme Court should say, "Well, the president can fire them." And I think if that happens, then we we tear down even the pretense that the United States has an independent Federal Reserve. And our creditors will look at the complete unwillingness of the government to do anything about the exploding deficits. You know, the big beautiful bill took all the Biden deficits and made them worse. Uh, so we're headed for a fiscal train wreck. And I I think that's going to be, you know, a a flag, you know, checker flag, you know, to to sell the dollar. And I think, you know, central banks have been walking away from the dollar now. Uh, they're going to start to run and the dollar is going to fall more. In fact, the dollar is on a new low right now. I think since Trump's been president. Uh, looking at the dollar index, I think we're breaking below 97. Yeah, we're 9745. I think this is the low for the year uh for the dollar index but you know it's a long way down uh for the dollar which means it's it's a long way up for gold and you know people just need to to understand you know the Trump administration can talk about how great things are and he could send Howard Lednik on television to talk about this great booming economy that's all part of the show it's all a bunch of lies that that they're that they're spinning the economy is a disaster you know it's weaker now than it was under Biden. Not necessarily because of Trump, because it would have been weaker even if Harris had won, but there's nothing that he's doing that's helping to fix the problems. In fact, what he's doing is compounding the problems. Well, President Trump has also stated that he wants to privatize mortgage enterprises. Fanny May and Freddy Mack, writing on Truth Social, "Fanny May and Freddy Mack are doing very well, throwing off a lot of cash, and the time would seem to be right. You responded to this on X posting if Trump follows through with his planned privatization of Fanny and Freddy, it will not only be one of his worst decisions, but prove that he either doesn't understand or believe in capitalism or that he just cares more about enriching his friends than helping his country. What would the implications of this privatization be in your view? And how would it affect the mortgage market and the overall economy in America? So remember, it's not a true privatization. He just wants to privatize the profits but socialize all the losses. Because what Trump wants to do is something that even Linda Johnson and Richard Nixon didn't do. He wants to make the assumed implicit guarantee an explicit guarantee. He wants to say these are private companies, but anybody who buys their bonds, if anything goes wrong, the US taxpayer is going to step up and and bail you out. And so that's going to create a much worse moral hazard than the one that drove them into bankruptcy the first time. And um I think what Trump wants to do too is lower the lending standards even more so that Fanny and Freddy can can guarantee even riskier debt because people can't afford to buy these overpriced homes. And so the only way they'll be able to afford it is if they could buy with nothing down, right? So maybe that'll be the thing or maybe they'll get more teaser rates. Uh but the Fed that that's what Trump wants to do. He wants to goose the housing market and enrich his friends uh who bought into Fanny and Freddy last year for a dollar and a half. I mean they you know the stock was a buck and a half and now it's 1112. Um but the companies are ultimately going to go to zero uh when they collapse again. But in the meantime, you know, there could be a lot of profit that's made by the people who bought in and and get out. I don't know who's going to want to buy it at these higher prices, you know, unless, of course, they say, "Hey, you know, it's going to be a monopoly." In fact, they want to take Fanny and Freddy, I think, and make one company. So, instead of having a duopoly, they have a monopoly. and and now they have government guaranteed debt instead of just, you know, people assuming the government would step up because if they're going to do this private placement, if they're going to sell stock, the government's going to have to put it in a in a perspectus and have to put in writing that the obligations are government guaranteed. So, this is this is a terrible thing. Uh what what we need is to abolish Fanny and Freddy. If Trump really was a conservative or libertarian, if he believed in capitalism in the Constitution, he would abolish Fanny and Freddy. They were created by Franklin Roosevelt. And in fact, when Roosevelt created Fanny, Fanny May was created by Franklin Roosevelt. But even Roosevelt wasn't dumb enough to do what Trump wants to do. He created it as a government agency. And it was only allowed to buy FHA guaranteed mortgages. It wasn't allowed to go, you know, just buy conventional mortgages. So, what Trump wants to do is create a monster uh worse than any other far-left wing uh uh administration would have done. There's no way Biden would have done this. Um, so it's just it's it it's and it's going to be very inflationary because what it's going to do is it's going to funnel more credit into an overpriced housing market and it's going to divert credit away from the real economy, from the productive economy, driving our trade deficits even higher despite the tariffs and the inflation that's going to be created to sustain this is going to drive gold much much higher and uh and uh the dollar much lower. I want to get your thoughts on this meeting of world leaders in China recently with Putin, Shei, and Kim Jong-un all united and seeming to send a strong message to the West that American hijgemony is coming to an end, particularly with Russia and China's signing of anou for the power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project for 30 years for Russia to deliver natural gas to China. They also increased deliveries through the power of Siberia 1 pipeline. Kim Jong-un telling Putin that we will do everything in our power to assist Russia. Trump of course in the aftermath took to Truth Social to call this a conspiracy against America. But however you look at it, Russia, China and the BRICS nations seem to be steadily increasing their independence from US control. Where is this all headed in your view? Yeah. Well, unfortunately, Trump's uh trade policy and his vilification of everybody uh has driven our supposed adversaries closer together. And and so now China and Russia and India are closer than ever before. And not only is China, you know, strengthening its relationships with one-time adversaries, right, but they're also making bigger inroads now into our uh sphere. They're making more inroads into South America, into Canada because, you know, we've been slapping tariffs on them. Uh so we're driving everybody closer to China. China is the biggest winner in the Trump uh trade war. Trump doesn't understand that yet. Uh, but China is the biggest winner and the dollar is going to be the biggest loser. I want to end by focusing on the broad market here for a moment because I have a lineup down the block of guests on this show for the past 3 years who have been saying that we're in a massive bubble. Prepare for an epic crash. A massive bare market is coming for these overvalued AI and tech stocks and the Magnificent 7. Um, do you think these overvaluations because by many many metrics when we look at the broad market today, it seems incredibly overvalued. Do you think this can go on for longer than people anticipate? Give us your overall thoughts on the broad indices and and where you see things headed, whether we're going to go into a bare market and and how long you think these valuations could carry on for. Well, it's hard to say. Uh, but what you have to understand is what's going on behind the scenes. The US stock market has been in a bare market for 25 years. Right? 25 years ago, the stock market was worth 40 ounces of gold. Now, I think it's worth under 13. So, you're talking about a 70% decline over 25 years priced in real money. So, that's what's actually going on, right? But because of all the inflation that the Fed has created over two and a half decades, the prices of stocks have gone up. Now, can the price of stocks continue to go up if we continue to create inflation? Sure. But the one thing I know for sure is that the real price in terms of gold is going to go down. Uh a and so you're better off owning gold than owning the S&P 500. Now, I think you're better off right now owning gold mining stocks than physical gold. Although, everybody should own some physical gold. I mean, if you don't own any, you better get on, you know, in fact, put this thing on pause if you're watching. Pause it. Go to shift gold, buy some gold and silver, and then come back, right? Because that's how important it is that you own at least five or 10% of your net worth. It should be in physical gold, right? But then for your investment portfolio, and I don't even consider gold as part of your investment portfolio. That's your savings, right? But, you know, your investment portfolio, I think, should be heavily weighted right now into gold uh and silver mining stocks, right? And that's where where where my fund comes in. So, that's what you should own regardless of what the stock market does. Now, that said, I would not be surprised if the stock market dropped 20% or more because it's so expensive. But, if we do get a major drop in the stock market, that's just going to be a catalyst for the Fed to come in with more QE if they haven't already started QE. uh because you know Trump is not going to want the stock market to go down and so it you know the Fed's going to have to goose it you know and even if the Trump administration has to find a way to say it's an emergency and now we got to buy stocks. I mean if they could shake down Intel and demand a piece of the action and say we want 10% of Intel. Why can't they just buy 10% of all the S&P 500 companies and just create the money to do it? Just get their get their buddies at the Fed uh to crank up the presses. So, a lot of this stuff, you know, could happen. I mean, nothing's off the table with this administration. Well, excellent thoughts overall. Peter, we've touched on Shift Gold and Europacific Asset Management, as I mentioned. Those links will be in the description below. Uh, tell us about the Peter Shift show, uh, where people can follow you on X and and anything else you want to shout out. Yeah. And by the way, as we were just talking, cuz I I wanted to post it on X, but gold finally hit 3600. So, it just it just touched it, traded slightly above it. Now, it's 59.99 in. So, but we we we hit 3600. Uh, but look, I've been, you know, pounding the table on my radio show, you know, uh, ever since I started it. As for fact, you know, I started selling gold, uh, and recommending it. I remember the first time I went on CNBC was in 2004 and the price of gold was still below 400. And I was on with Mark Haynes and I came on again a few months later, a couple months later and I said, 'You know, Mark, the price of gold's up $40 since the last time I was on your program. And his response to me was, who cares? Why should I care about the price of gold? Care about the price of bread? Care about the price of oil? Why should I care about the price of gold? Like, I mean, and this is a guy that runs a financial channel, right? A main anchor on Squawkbox telling the audience that he doesn't even care about gold. when it's the single most important commodity there is when it comes to understanding the economy or the financial world. I mean, gold is money. I mean, central banks aren't storing bread. They're storing gold and they're storing it for a reason. But the problem is they still don't understand gold on CNBC or any of these things. So, if you want to go know the truth about what's happening in the economy uh and the markets, you need to go to and listen to me. you need to go to the Peter Schiff show uh which you can see I'm in fact I'm doing another episode after the close today uh so it's on shiftradio.com it's on my YouTube channel peter shift also anywhere Apple you know iTunes Stitcher you know any of these places uh Spotify I mean my podcast is everywhere uh you can listen to it I also do some updates on the gold market on the shift gold YouTube channel I do the Friday market wraps which I'm probably not going to do one today because I'm just going to do a one big one on uh uh the jobs data and and gold and all that. Um people should follow me on X. I mean, that's where, you know, I I'm constantly, you know, putting out my real time thoughts on whatever's happening. I'm almost at 1.2 million subscribers, but I really need a lot more. I need an even bigger soapbox to scream the truth from because there's so many people that are screaming out lies. You know, it it it o overwhelms what I'm trying to say. So follow me and then get your friends to follow me and get their friends to follow me uh so that more people uh will understand the truth, you know, and the real risk is, you know, Donald Trump is going to do tremendous damage to the Republican brand. Uh because the economy is going to be so much weaker uh at the end of his term than it was when he stepped in and inflation is going to be so much stronger. Uh and he's going to get blamed. But it's not Donald Trump that's going to get blamed. it's going to be the Republican party and what the Republican party claims that it stands for. Even though Donald Trump doesn't actually stand for any of those things, but the Republicans are refusing uh to admit that that Donald Trump is has far more in common with Democrats than Republicans. But uh it's going to be very bad for the brand. And I I do think that uh the Republicans are going to lose control of the Congress in the midterms and they're going to lose the White House in 2028. and and that's going to be very bad for the dollar and and and very good for gold because I think they're going to use some of the powers that Trump usurped in even worse ways than Trump has done it. That's why the president that he's setting now is so dangerous. Uh because the weapon that he is now handing to the the president is going to be used by a radical left-wing socialist who's got who's going to do even more damage with it than Trump. Well, yes, the pendulum always swings the other way. Awesome commentary, Peter. Thank you so much for coming on the show. I will put links in the description to your ex account as well as the Peter Schiff show. People should definitely tune in. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it. All right, my pleasure. Keep up the good work. And thank you for joining us today. As a reminder, this episode is brought to you by Ark Silver, Gold Osmium. Take advantage of their specials today. Silver Kangaroos 2023 1oz coins only $247 over spot. Silver Maple Leafs 2025 1oz coins just $287 over spot while supplies last. Go to arcsggo.com. Contact Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you. Be sure to pick up your Commodity Culture merch. Link in the description below. Everything backed by a 100% quality guarantee. And I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.
'$12k Minimum' for GOLD This Cycle – 'We Can Go a LOT Higher': Peter Schiff
Summary
Transcript
Hello and welcome into commodity culture where our goal is to make you a better investor in the commodity sector. My name is Jesse Day and on this episode I'm thrilled to welcome Peter Schiff to the program, economist and global strategist at Europacific Asset Management and the host of the Peter Schiff show. With gold hitting new all-time highs and silver breaking above $40 and climbing, we're going deep on the precious metals markets today and getting Peter's latest thoughts on the metals and the mining stocks, the factors driving gold and silver and why he thinks we'll definitely see $10,000 gold and $200 silver this cycle. We also discussed the Fed abandoning their 2% inflation target and signaling they will be cutting rates up ahead in the face of rising inflation and political pressure. What will the implications be for financial markets and the economy? All of this and so much more ahead. So strap yourselves in for my conversation with Peter Schiff. Peter Schiff, great to have you back on Commodity Culture. Obviously, a very exciting day for commodities as you were mentioning before we hit record today, but particularly for the gold sector. Gold hitting new all-time highs now at around $3,600 an ounce. This is after it was in a consolidation pattern for around 4 months. What do you think is driving this continued strength in the gold market? And is this still early innings for this bull cycle in your view? Yeah, in fact, I think this cycle really just got started after that consolidation. But I think the leg started in 2024 when we broke above 2,000 and we quietly moved from 2,000 to 3,000 and nobody noticed it. In fact, when gold was hanging out at 20,000, a lot of analysts put sell recommendations on pneumont and barrack because they thought that gold had topped and they didn't see any any upside. And then I think when Trump won, a lot of people expected the gold to fall because the economy was going to boom and Trump was going to do all this great stuff about shrinking the deficit, making America great again. Um, but you know, now it's becoming more obvious that none of that was true. But I think this is a new leg. We spent really over 10 years. Remember go the first leg of the bull market was 2001 to 2011. Gold went from under 300 to,900. So it increased by sixfold, right? Then it really went sideways from 2011 to 2024. Gold traded between 201,500,700. I mean, it initially pulled back to a,000. It got to a,50 in 2015. So, it held a thousand, went back up, but only made a new high briefly during the 2020 COVID crisis. It poked its head above 2,000, but then, you know, it got chopped off and and it went back down. But that's a huge base that we built around 2000 as a you know, as a floor now because it was resistance, it was the ceiling, now it's the support. And now we're just starting another leg, which I think will be at least symmetrical to the prior leg. So, we had the move from under 300 to,900 consolidation. That was a six-fold increase. If you assume we go up sixfold from 20,000, that's $12,000 gold. So, I kind of at a minimum, I think that that's where we're headed. But if we end up having a dollar crisis and a US sovereign debt crisis, we could go a lot higher than that. And um and and I think that there's there's a good chance that that's going to happen. You ask me what's driving this. Uh it it is the monetary and fiscal policy of the United States which are disasters. And in fact following the weak jobs report that we got today. And by the way, you know, the jobs market has never been this weak outside of a recession. In fact, the last two times you had a labor market as weak as the one we got right now, it was the great recession of 2008 2009 with the financial crisis or 2020 as we were shutting the whole economy down because of COVID. So, you know, the Fed has been mischaracterizing this labor market. Powell kept saying we have a really strong labor market. We have a really strong market. He was wrong the entire time. We have a weak labor market. And it and you would even see how much weaker it was if we had honest statistics. Uh but we don't. But even with the statistics we have, you know, we had outright job decline in June. We lost 13,000 jobs in June. The August number was just plus 22,000. Manufacturing lost 13,000. And the U6 unemployment rate, which is more relevant than the headline rate of 4.3, is 8.1. So we've got rising unemployment. Uh, and inflation, you know, the Fed said that the labor market was strong, but inflation is weak. They got it backwards. The labor market is weak, inflation is strong. And I think that's really what's helping to drive the move in gold now and and down in the dollar is the Fed is about to start cutting rates into rising inflation. And it's hard to imagine when they've done that before because inflation is above their target and rising. and they're going to cut into that. So, it's the opposite of what they should be doing. Even though the economy is weak, inflation is strong. And that should be the primary mandate is to get inflation back down. But they're going to abdicate that role because of the political pressure uh to try to artificially stimulate the economy, the housing market. Uh so, gold is going to take off from here. You know, you know, we're we basically just left the launch pad and we got a long way to go. But you know the whole time that gold was going sideways for three or four months, gold stocks were quietly going up, gold stocks went up 30 40% while the price of gold traded sideways. And that's something we haven't seen during the entirety of the bull market because the the investors in mining stocks have never believed the rally. They've been skeptical the entire time. They're finally starting to accept the fact that gold's not going to crash. But these gold stocks are not priced for current gold prices, let alone the future gold prices. But at least they're pricing out a crash. Now, people accept, okay, gold is going to be around this level, so we got to bid up these stocks cuz they're still really cheap. Even though they're up better than 90% on the year, and gold mining stocks are the number one performing sector in the market this year, and they're hardly ever discussed. No one talks about them. I think Pneumont Mining is the number one performing stock in the S&P 500. You know, the only gold stock in the S&P 500 and it's beating all the tech stocks. Yet, probably of all the stocks in the S&P 500, Pneumon is probably the one that's the least owned. And now, a quick break to hear from our sponsor, Arc Silver Gold, Osmium owner. Ian Everard is considered one of the most honest and levelheaded gold and silver dealers in the United States. praised even by his competitors. So give him a call today to take advantage of the specials right now. Silver kangaroos 2023 1oz coins mint fresh only $247 cents over spot. Mint fresh silver maple leaves 2025 coins 1 oz $2.87 over spot while supplies last. reach out today at 307264-9441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that commodity culture sent you. And now back to the interview. Well, I want to get into the gold mining sector as well as the Fed abandoning seemingly abandoning their 2% inflation target in just a moment. But first, I want to talk about the fact that the US dollar has now lost 50% of its value versus gold in the past 3 years. You've spoken before on this show about gold potentially re-entering the monetary system at some point, and it seems in some ways it's starting to force itself back into its role as the superior form of money. What do you make of this significant and rapid drop in the USD versus gold? And do you think governments will eventually be forced to reintroduce gold to the monetary system in one form or another? Well, I think that is going to happen. I think it's pretty clear if you look at the main buyers of gold the past couple years has been foreign central banks. Why are they doing that? I think they're preparing uh to replace uh their dollars with gold. I think gold is going to become the primary reserve asset for central banks and that's going to be a gamecher for the United States because the world is not going to need our dollars anymore. Well, if they don't need our dollars, then how are we going to buy all the stuff that we need? Because we don't produce it. And how are we going to finance our debt? Because we've been relying on foreigners to finance that debt because they have the savings that that we lack. So, it's a big problem for the US. But I think from a monetary perspective, you're going to see I think people utilizing gold using the technology that exists today, whether it's onchain with, you know, uh tokenized versions of gold or whether it's just through uh proprietary uh closed systems where you know you uh the custodian has the gold and just uses technology to allocate ownership digitally so that people can transact business uh receive and make payments uh send money and receive money uh using gold right just like using PayPal or Venmo or any other uh you know zel or any of these things you can just use gold you know you don't have to transfer your gold if I wanted to buy something from you uh and you wanted me to pay you uh you know a gram of gold for it right whatever that is 30 40 bucks whatever right I don't have to send you a little bit of gold in an envelope and mail it to you. If if the if the gold is held in a custodian and I have it tokenized in my wallet, I can just email or text you the you know the Graham and now the ownership of the gold goes from me to you. So now you own the gold, not me anymore. You've got it. It's in a vault. Now if you want the gold, you can you can have them ship it to you. But why do that? just hold on to the ownership receipt because now if you want to buy something you can pay with gold because the guy that wants to sell you that he wants gold too. Why would people prefer gold to dollars? Because they hold their gold holds its value. Why why would I want dollars when I can have gold? You know, it's like why why why use the post office when I can send something by FedEx, right? that that the free market has provided me with a better alternative than the government. Right? Why do people use Uber and Lyft? Because taxis are too expensive. Why are taxes expensive? Because the government provides the licenses and regulates them and so they're they're expensive. The free market alternative is well, I'll just call an Uber, right? So the equivalent of an Uber in the monetary system is gold, right? Gold is the free market's money. Fiat is government money and it's lousy because it loses its value. The longer you hold it, the less it's worth. The opposite is true of gold. The longer you hold your gold, the more it's worth. So, given a choice, which would you hold? Very well said. Now, the last time I had you on, you told me that you think $100 silver is still too cheap. We've now broken out above $40 and to get back to the 1980 $50 high adjusted for inflation, silver would need to be nearly $200 an ounce. Is that a realistic target in your view? And if so, walk us through how you think we could get there. Well, it's very realistic. I mean, especially if you have $10,000 gold, uh $200 silver, what is that? 50 to1. I mean, so um that's very realistic. And I think potentially silver could go higher than that. But right now it's above 41. It does have this psychological and not just psychological real resistance at 50 because we have a double top there. Uh that goes back to 1980 and then again we hit it in 2011. So silver has not broken out yet. While gold has, silver is still in this range. So I do expect that it will, you know, there'll be some overhead resistance. But I think once silver is above 50, once we're at 51, 52, and 50 becomes the support, I think it's not going to take long for silver to double to 100. I think that move will happen quickly. It may happen in a matter of months, right? Because once we take out that resistance, there's there's nothing there. And I think there's also a lot of shorts out there in silver that, you know, are going to be in a lot of trouble trying to trying to cover those shorts and buy silver that really doesn't exist. Let's hone in on the gold and silver mining sector now. Obviously, vastly outperforming the metals themselves and completely crushing the broad market. You mentioned pneumont is one of the best or the best performer in the S&P 500 right now. We've seen the GDX and SIL ETFs both up over 80% year to date. and yet it's crickets from the mainstream media at this point. How are you currently viewing the opportunity in precious metals mining stocks? And when do you think Main Street and the financial media and financial adviserss will catch on to the fact that we're in a bull market for the miners? You know, I actually like the fact that this bull market isn't on anybody's radar because I just assume Wall Street buy into the market later at much higher prices. um they don't need to get in now. I want my clients to get in now. And I, you know, the less competition, the better. I just want to get as much, you know, gold mining stocks and silver mining stocks as I can. And the last thing I want is, you know, Meil Lynch and Goldman Sachs telling all their clients to buy, right? Because that's going to make it more expensive for my clients. So, the longer they ignore this bull market, the better as far as I'm concerned. Like, I'm in no hurry. I waited plenty of time for this and I'm in no hurry to speed it up right now. Um, but I do look at that as a positive sign that nobody's invested. The public, you know, has no idea. You know, you have one group of people that are still fixated on Bitcoin. Uh, and they're buying Bitcoin instead of gold. Uh, although Bke Kelly, I just read that he just put $50 million into gold. So maybe he's figuring out that Bitcoin is the is the wrong way to go. But you know, it's interesting that Bitcoin is barely up today. And Bitcoin is more than 15% below its peak priced in gold from 2021. So four years, Bitcoin has been losing value relative to gold despite all the marketing hype surrounding Bitcoin. all the all the ETFs that were established, you know, uh the NFTts, uh the Super Bowl ads, the celebrity endorsements, Donald Trump and the strategic Bitcoin reserve and the Bitcoin ZAR and making Bitcoin the American the capital of the world, right? All that pump and they can't even get Bitcoin to go up. So, what does that tell you? But what is going up is the one thing that's not getting any hype and that's and that's gold. and now silver, you know, going up as well, but not not into record territory. So, these gold stocks, I think, are still extremely cheap. Um, they could double again from here, and I I don't think they'd be expensive, especially considering that if the gold stocks double from here, gold's going to be a lot higher. So, it's like they still wouldn't have caught up to where they should be. So, we got a long way to go in the mining stocks. In fact, you know, in April of this year, I kind of aggravated some of the guys at Shift Gold because I put out this report that said the best way to buy gold, and it was to buy the gold mining stocks. And I was telling my clients for the first time not to buy gold. And gold was around 3,200, 3,300. And I said, "Look, I'm a gold bull. I love gold, but these gold stocks are so cheap that it doesn't make any sense to buy gold above ground. Just buy it while it's still in the ground because it's so cheap." And while gold went sideways for all those months, the gold stocks were soaring. And I I they're not as cheap as they were obviously, but they're still very cheap. And I still think people should be buying gold stocks and gold now, uh, and physical silver, any silver mining stocks. So, you know, Shift Gold is my gold company. what you want to don't do. There's so many unfortunately shysters in the gold industry, uh, and they rip off their their their customers by pushing them into these numismatics or collectible coins, fake numismatics, proof sets, uh, you know, odd odd weighted, you know, coins you've never heard of. And they do that because the markups are 30, 40, 50% or more. Uh, and so you need the price of gold to go up 50% just to break even. So why buy gold at 3,600 if you know you need 5,000 just to get out even. So at Shift Gold, you know, we're marking up gold like 1%. So if you bought gold yesterday, you could sell it back today and make a profit, right? So you that you don't want to get ripped off. So going to shift gold, you're going to get the best prices. You're going to get just bullion. Uh, we're not going to try to push you into something that makes us money. We're going to sell you what you need to make yourself money. Uh, my my goal is to make a little money on volume, not on ripping people off. But that's also interesting. Like, Shift Gold's phones are not ringing off the hook. I mean, it's it's slow. And that's the same throughout the industry. And what the Shift Gold guys have been telling me, our reps, is that customers have been reluctant to buy because they're worried about buying the high. And I've been telling our customers all year, you got to buy the high because that's all that you're going to have the opportunity to do. The problem is the longer you wait, the higher the high is going to be. So, you just might as well buy now. I mean, because you're not going to get a big enough pullback. You'll get some pullbacks, but you know, why wait? It's not going to be enough to make a big difference. And the risk is that by the time you get a pullback, it's pulling back from a price that's much higher than if you just bought it right now. You know, I don't see any like panic to buy. Gold's not moving up a hundred, $200 a day. I mean, that's going to happen. I mean, it moves up 10 bucks, 20 bucks. I mean, today $50 is a big move because we got data. Um, but, you know, I haven't seen anything crazy. The gold stocks go up 2%, 3%, maybe 4% in a day, then they pull back. They're not up 10% in a day. They will be eventually, but we're not there yet. So, you know, people should get on board on the mining on the metal at Shift Gold and Gold stocks. You know, my gold fund, I'm very partial to my gold fund that's managed by Adrian Day. But I think the the hidden value in my gold fund is our portfolio of very small junior miners. That would be almost impossible to buy today uh given the liquidity. But these stocks haven't moved the way the big ones have because the money that has been flowing in has been buying the pneumonts and the barracks and ag eagles and the Franco Nevada and Ken Ross and I am gold. I mean they're not buying the little ones. That's going to happen. That's next. And I think they're really going to move. So you can get into that exposure. We've got all the big ones in my gold fund. Uh but it's the little ones that I think are the hidden value. And you could buy my fund no load pretty much anywhere. The symbol is EPGIX, Europacific Gold Fund, EPGIX. Uh, all discount brokers have it. That's a no-load version. Or just go to my website, europac.com. You can, if you don't have a brokerage account, you can just go to my website and buy my mutual fund right off my site. And so, you don't even need a brokerage account. You just buy it directly from europac.com. Great. Well, there will be links in the description to both Shift Gold and Europac.com. I want to shift over to the blatant politicizing of the Fed with Trump publicly attacking Powell regularly on the issue of lowering rates. It looks like Powell has capitulated as you mentioned earlier seeming to indicate that they would be abandoning their 2% inflation target. We all know the inflation numbers they put out are so egregiously manipulated that it's nowhere near 2%. But now Powell is basically confessing that even with how much they fudge the numbers, we're still not going back to 2%. What do you make of all this and and what do you think the implications will be of a rate cut up ahead? Well, I think it's going to be obvious to the markets that the rate cut is politically motivated. Also, that Donald Trump is trying to basically hijack the Fed and fill it with his cronies uh who will make monetary policy to make the president look good, not to uh uh deliver on the Fed's mandate of controlling inflation. I think this is going to be very negative for the dollar. I think there's a real risk that the Supreme Court upholds Donald Trump's authority to fire uh Fed governors. I think the Fed may the Supreme Court may uh say that a truly independent Fed is not constitutional and there must be oversight. Uh they must be beholden to somebody who's elected and that would be the president and maybe Congress because Congress approves the appointments. Uh but if the president gets to nominate them, the Supreme Court should say, "Well, the president can fire them." And I think if that happens, then we we tear down even the pretense that the United States has an independent Federal Reserve. And our creditors will look at the complete unwillingness of the government to do anything about the exploding deficits. You know, the big beautiful bill took all the Biden deficits and made them worse. Uh, so we're headed for a fiscal train wreck. And I I think that's going to be, you know, a a flag, you know, checker flag, you know, to to sell the dollar. And I think, you know, central banks have been walking away from the dollar now. Uh, they're going to start to run and the dollar is going to fall more. In fact, the dollar is on a new low right now. I think since Trump's been president. Uh, looking at the dollar index, I think we're breaking below 97. Yeah, we're 9745. I think this is the low for the year uh for the dollar index but you know it's a long way down uh for the dollar which means it's it's a long way up for gold and you know people just need to to understand you know the Trump administration can talk about how great things are and he could send Howard Lednik on television to talk about this great booming economy that's all part of the show it's all a bunch of lies that that they're that they're spinning the economy is a disaster you know it's weaker now than it was under Biden. Not necessarily because of Trump, because it would have been weaker even if Harris had won, but there's nothing that he's doing that's helping to fix the problems. In fact, what he's doing is compounding the problems. Well, President Trump has also stated that he wants to privatize mortgage enterprises. Fanny May and Freddy Mack, writing on Truth Social, "Fanny May and Freddy Mack are doing very well, throwing off a lot of cash, and the time would seem to be right. You responded to this on X posting if Trump follows through with his planned privatization of Fanny and Freddy, it will not only be one of his worst decisions, but prove that he either doesn't understand or believe in capitalism or that he just cares more about enriching his friends than helping his country. What would the implications of this privatization be in your view? And how would it affect the mortgage market and the overall economy in America? So remember, it's not a true privatization. He just wants to privatize the profits but socialize all the losses. Because what Trump wants to do is something that even Linda Johnson and Richard Nixon didn't do. He wants to make the assumed implicit guarantee an explicit guarantee. He wants to say these are private companies, but anybody who buys their bonds, if anything goes wrong, the US taxpayer is going to step up and and bail you out. And so that's going to create a much worse moral hazard than the one that drove them into bankruptcy the first time. And um I think what Trump wants to do too is lower the lending standards even more so that Fanny and Freddy can can guarantee even riskier debt because people can't afford to buy these overpriced homes. And so the only way they'll be able to afford it is if they could buy with nothing down, right? So maybe that'll be the thing or maybe they'll get more teaser rates. Uh but the Fed that that's what Trump wants to do. He wants to goose the housing market and enrich his friends uh who bought into Fanny and Freddy last year for a dollar and a half. I mean they you know the stock was a buck and a half and now it's 1112. Um but the companies are ultimately going to go to zero uh when they collapse again. But in the meantime, you know, there could be a lot of profit that's made by the people who bought in and and get out. I don't know who's going to want to buy it at these higher prices, you know, unless, of course, they say, "Hey, you know, it's going to be a monopoly." In fact, they want to take Fanny and Freddy, I think, and make one company. So, instead of having a duopoly, they have a monopoly. and and now they have government guaranteed debt instead of just, you know, people assuming the government would step up because if they're going to do this private placement, if they're going to sell stock, the government's going to have to put it in a in a perspectus and have to put in writing that the obligations are government guaranteed. So, this is this is a terrible thing. Uh what what we need is to abolish Fanny and Freddy. If Trump really was a conservative or libertarian, if he believed in capitalism in the Constitution, he would abolish Fanny and Freddy. They were created by Franklin Roosevelt. And in fact, when Roosevelt created Fanny, Fanny May was created by Franklin Roosevelt. But even Roosevelt wasn't dumb enough to do what Trump wants to do. He created it as a government agency. And it was only allowed to buy FHA guaranteed mortgages. It wasn't allowed to go, you know, just buy conventional mortgages. So, what Trump wants to do is create a monster uh worse than any other far-left wing uh uh administration would have done. There's no way Biden would have done this. Um, so it's just it's it it's and it's going to be very inflationary because what it's going to do is it's going to funnel more credit into an overpriced housing market and it's going to divert credit away from the real economy, from the productive economy, driving our trade deficits even higher despite the tariffs and the inflation that's going to be created to sustain this is going to drive gold much much higher and uh and uh the dollar much lower. I want to get your thoughts on this meeting of world leaders in China recently with Putin, Shei, and Kim Jong-un all united and seeming to send a strong message to the West that American hijgemony is coming to an end, particularly with Russia and China's signing of anou for the power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline project for 30 years for Russia to deliver natural gas to China. They also increased deliveries through the power of Siberia 1 pipeline. Kim Jong-un telling Putin that we will do everything in our power to assist Russia. Trump of course in the aftermath took to Truth Social to call this a conspiracy against America. But however you look at it, Russia, China and the BRICS nations seem to be steadily increasing their independence from US control. Where is this all headed in your view? Yeah. Well, unfortunately, Trump's uh trade policy and his vilification of everybody uh has driven our supposed adversaries closer together. And and so now China and Russia and India are closer than ever before. And not only is China, you know, strengthening its relationships with one-time adversaries, right, but they're also making bigger inroads now into our uh sphere. They're making more inroads into South America, into Canada because, you know, we've been slapping tariffs on them. Uh so we're driving everybody closer to China. China is the biggest winner in the Trump uh trade war. Trump doesn't understand that yet. Uh, but China is the biggest winner and the dollar is going to be the biggest loser. I want to end by focusing on the broad market here for a moment because I have a lineup down the block of guests on this show for the past 3 years who have been saying that we're in a massive bubble. Prepare for an epic crash. A massive bare market is coming for these overvalued AI and tech stocks and the Magnificent 7. Um, do you think these overvaluations because by many many metrics when we look at the broad market today, it seems incredibly overvalued. Do you think this can go on for longer than people anticipate? Give us your overall thoughts on the broad indices and and where you see things headed, whether we're going to go into a bare market and and how long you think these valuations could carry on for. Well, it's hard to say. Uh, but what you have to understand is what's going on behind the scenes. The US stock market has been in a bare market for 25 years. Right? 25 years ago, the stock market was worth 40 ounces of gold. Now, I think it's worth under 13. So, you're talking about a 70% decline over 25 years priced in real money. So, that's what's actually going on, right? But because of all the inflation that the Fed has created over two and a half decades, the prices of stocks have gone up. Now, can the price of stocks continue to go up if we continue to create inflation? Sure. But the one thing I know for sure is that the real price in terms of gold is going to go down. Uh a and so you're better off owning gold than owning the S&P 500. Now, I think you're better off right now owning gold mining stocks than physical gold. Although, everybody should own some physical gold. I mean, if you don't own any, you better get on, you know, in fact, put this thing on pause if you're watching. Pause it. Go to shift gold, buy some gold and silver, and then come back, right? Because that's how important it is that you own at least five or 10% of your net worth. It should be in physical gold, right? But then for your investment portfolio, and I don't even consider gold as part of your investment portfolio. That's your savings, right? But, you know, your investment portfolio, I think, should be heavily weighted right now into gold uh and silver mining stocks, right? And that's where where where my fund comes in. So, that's what you should own regardless of what the stock market does. Now, that said, I would not be surprised if the stock market dropped 20% or more because it's so expensive. But, if we do get a major drop in the stock market, that's just going to be a catalyst for the Fed to come in with more QE if they haven't already started QE. uh because you know Trump is not going to want the stock market to go down and so it you know the Fed's going to have to goose it you know and even if the Trump administration has to find a way to say it's an emergency and now we got to buy stocks. I mean if they could shake down Intel and demand a piece of the action and say we want 10% of Intel. Why can't they just buy 10% of all the S&P 500 companies and just create the money to do it? Just get their get their buddies at the Fed uh to crank up the presses. So, a lot of this stuff, you know, could happen. I mean, nothing's off the table with this administration. Well, excellent thoughts overall. Peter, we've touched on Shift Gold and Europacific Asset Management, as I mentioned. Those links will be in the description below. Uh, tell us about the Peter Shift show, uh, where people can follow you on X and and anything else you want to shout out. Yeah. And by the way, as we were just talking, cuz I I wanted to post it on X, but gold finally hit 3600. So, it just it just touched it, traded slightly above it. Now, it's 59.99 in. So, but we we we hit 3600. Uh, but look, I've been, you know, pounding the table on my radio show, you know, uh, ever since I started it. As for fact, you know, I started selling gold, uh, and recommending it. I remember the first time I went on CNBC was in 2004 and the price of gold was still below 400. And I was on with Mark Haynes and I came on again a few months later, a couple months later and I said, 'You know, Mark, the price of gold's up $40 since the last time I was on your program. And his response to me was, who cares? Why should I care about the price of gold? Care about the price of bread? Care about the price of oil? Why should I care about the price of gold? Like, I mean, and this is a guy that runs a financial channel, right? A main anchor on Squawkbox telling the audience that he doesn't even care about gold. when it's the single most important commodity there is when it comes to understanding the economy or the financial world. I mean, gold is money. I mean, central banks aren't storing bread. They're storing gold and they're storing it for a reason. But the problem is they still don't understand gold on CNBC or any of these things. So, if you want to go know the truth about what's happening in the economy uh and the markets, you need to go to and listen to me. you need to go to the Peter Schiff show uh which you can see I'm in fact I'm doing another episode after the close today uh so it's on shiftradio.com it's on my YouTube channel peter shift also anywhere Apple you know iTunes Stitcher you know any of these places uh Spotify I mean my podcast is everywhere uh you can listen to it I also do some updates on the gold market on the shift gold YouTube channel I do the Friday market wraps which I'm probably not going to do one today because I'm just going to do a one big one on uh uh the jobs data and and gold and all that. Um people should follow me on X. I mean, that's where, you know, I I'm constantly, you know, putting out my real time thoughts on whatever's happening. I'm almost at 1.2 million subscribers, but I really need a lot more. I need an even bigger soapbox to scream the truth from because there's so many people that are screaming out lies. You know, it it it o overwhelms what I'm trying to say. So follow me and then get your friends to follow me and get their friends to follow me uh so that more people uh will understand the truth, you know, and the real risk is, you know, Donald Trump is going to do tremendous damage to the Republican brand. Uh because the economy is going to be so much weaker uh at the end of his term than it was when he stepped in and inflation is going to be so much stronger. Uh and he's going to get blamed. But it's not Donald Trump that's going to get blamed. it's going to be the Republican party and what the Republican party claims that it stands for. Even though Donald Trump doesn't actually stand for any of those things, but the Republicans are refusing uh to admit that that Donald Trump is has far more in common with Democrats than Republicans. But uh it's going to be very bad for the brand. And I I do think that uh the Republicans are going to lose control of the Congress in the midterms and they're going to lose the White House in 2028. and and that's going to be very bad for the dollar and and and very good for gold because I think they're going to use some of the powers that Trump usurped in even worse ways than Trump has done it. That's why the president that he's setting now is so dangerous. Uh because the weapon that he is now handing to the the president is going to be used by a radical left-wing socialist who's got who's going to do even more damage with it than Trump. Well, yes, the pendulum always swings the other way. Awesome commentary, Peter. Thank you so much for coming on the show. I will put links in the description to your ex account as well as the Peter Schiff show. People should definitely tune in. Thank you so much. Really appreciate it. All right, my pleasure. Keep up the good work. And thank you for joining us today. As a reminder, this episode is brought to you by Ark Silver, Gold Osmium. Take advantage of their specials today. Silver Kangaroos 2023 1oz coins only $247 over spot. Silver Maple Leafs 2025 1oz coins just $287 over spot while supplies last. Go to arcsggo.com. Contact Ian Everard today at 3072649441 or by email at ianarchsggo.com and make sure to tell him that Commodity Culture sent you. Be sure to pick up your Commodity Culture merch. Link in the description below. Everything backed by a 100% quality guarantee. And I'll see you guys in the next episode. Commodity Culture is a series on commodities and natural resources. If you would like to see more, be sure to subscribe and hit the bell notification so you're always up to date with the latest episodes.