5 Reasons 2026 Will Be A Wild Ride, Likely Catching Investors By Surprise | Michael Lebowitz

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I get the feeling that we're going to start the year in a lower volatility environment primarily because of QE, but as events hit the market that the potential for spikes in volatility could be significant. You know, we're up again 20% this year. What are the odds of having four 20% plus years in a row are are not high. So, you know, that's going to be there's probably going to be as we get into the new year more people wanting to hedge, which will cause volatility to rise on the margin. The Supreme Court is going to rule on tariffs. We know there's a midterm election. We know that the AI bubble is causing some angst. You know, Japan, for instance, is talking about starting to prop up the yen. How does that affect the yen carry trade? So, there's events that will that have the potential to spike the VIX, but right now the VIX is very subdued. It's probably not a bad place to buy some hedges if you want because optionality is pretty cheap here. [music] Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Fala Money founder and your host, Adam Tagert, welcoming you here at the end of another week for another weekly market recap featuring my good friend, portfolio manager, Michael Liboitz. Michael, how you doing, my friend? Happy holidays. >> Doing well. Thank you very much. You too. And to everyone listening, watching. >> Thank you. Um, I hope uh hope everybody watching had a great Christmas or in your case, Michael, a great Hanukkah there with your family or whatever holiday your family celebrates in the world. Everybody, um I am here probably on day one of uh not feeling like a total uh complete invalid. I've been laid low by uh the flu. I tested I had the influenza A strain. Today's the first day I feel actually semihuman. So I've got a lot to celebrate for that. Um I'm also uh on the road uh for the holidays. And uh I'm I'm joined today by a co-pilot here, a very friendly cat who kept me company for the past 5 days while I was in bed. Uh he decided he wanted to come join us for the interview, so I hope it's okay, Michael, if he sticks around. >> Yeah, I'm allergic, but it shouldn't be a problem. >> Okay. Hopefully that doesn't go through the inner tubes. Um look, lots to talk about this week. Um, and maybe we'll just sort of start where I think the interests uh are are most focused by a lot of the viewers here, which is on the silver market. Um, and you actually recently just wrote a piece about this, but uh, silver and really the whole precious metals complex has just been on fire. In fact, it's gone vertical. Um, I have a chart that I'll try to pull up in a moment here when I hand the baton to you. Um but really gold, silver, platinum, um they're all going straight up at this point. Silver on the morning we're talking I don't know where where it is this second. Uh but silver futures had crested above $76 an ounce uh earlier this morning. Um bananas. I don't even really believe those words as they're leaving my mouth given where silver was at the start of the year. Uh, and I know a lot of um, silver long-suffering silver holders are rejoicing in this, you know, as they should. Um, I I do think there's an increasing danger that things have just moved so far so fast. We're in this vertical phase that that we talked about, Michael. Um, these things generally don't end by going sideways. Um, and certainly historically with silver, um, when it's gone vertical like this, and there have been a couple pronounced periods in history where it has, the retracement has been short, violent, and brutal. And I I don't want to I don't want to say that that's definitely going to happen here. Um, I'm sensitive to some of the the arguments that uh this is a repricing of a metal that has been, you know, both manipulated and overlooked in the past and there's some very real supply shortages going on right now. But I think it's it would be a disservice not to tell people that you want to have some sort of plan in place in case history repeats here. >> Yeah. And we wrote an article about this and the article talks about the fundamentals and there are you know some valid reasons just fundamentally why the price of silver is rising. It's in greater demand. the the data center race, the solar power all use silver and quite honestly silver mining has been neglected. Uh so you have years of a a deficit in silver and it seems to be catching up now. So you can make a fundamental case. Uh you can make the case that you kind of made that catching up from years of being mispriced. you know, we can make up a lot of um facts to support the price, but there's one other fact that I think is potentially most important. And the fact that silver is an industrial metal used in some of this new high technology makes what I'm going to say even more critical to understand. And if we uh I'm going to just share my graph. It's a long-term silver graph. So, this goes back to about 1970. And there's three obvious spikes on this chart. And to your point, Adam, it's had these amazing runs and a mirror like decline, right? A boom, a classic kind of boom bust graph. Uh, and now here we are on our third boom in since 19 since the late 1970s. Now if you look at the you know late '7s early 80s and 209 to 2011 there are some similarities there. They were in 1971 Nixon took took us off the gold standard. The money supply started increasing. Inflation was starting to rage in the mid to late 70s. So the, you know, it was the the dollar debasement trade at the time and that the Fed was printing money and some of the same themes we heard again in 2008, you know, in the post financial crisis. Look at what they did to bail out the system, how much money was printed and the dollars going away. Very similar themes. And then you get to COVID where they just threw every fiscal and monetary policy at the the economy, at the markets. And in the aftermath, you know, silver is once again climbing, right? Climbing significantly. So, you know, the environments are the same. But I I think what is most critical to understand is this graph. This goes back to 2010, 2011. This is that middle spike in the graph I just showed. And basically what happened in 2011, what happened in 1979 1980 was that the the CME, the Chicago Merkantile Exchange came in and drastically ra raised margin requirements, basically making it much more expensive for people using silver futures to buy silver or options to buy silver. And that was the marginal demand for silver. and it cracked. You know, you saw the graph. The same thing 2000 uh 1979 1980 was a little different. It was being squeezed by the Hunt brothers and these three brothers were buying silver. Then they were starting to use silver on margin to to accumulate more. And at the end of the day, both the CFTC and the CME came in and made it almost impossible to trade silver futures. Price collapsed. So bullish, bearish. What I just urge everyone to consider is I don't care how bullish you are, if the the powers that be, whether that's the CME, whether that's the government, whoever it is, could be the Chinese government, right? whoever it is wants to put the price down. It's been done twice before and it would not be shocking. In fact, I think it's just a matter of time till it happens again. >> So, that's a great point, Michael. I really appreciate you doing this. So, you know, right now the debate is about, you know, for the the bulls and the bears, it tends to be on the fundamentals and market elements, right? And what you're saying is, hey, there's very important non-market factors that in the past have actually kind of been the the uh you know, the agent that has ended the the party both times where it's it's like, you know, whether it's the cop showing up at the party or just the bartender refusing to serve any more punch. Um the alcohol can be taken away uh even when the party looks like it's never going to end if that's what the authorities decide to do. And right and earlier on I said this has become a more important industrial metal that's even more reason to do this right to you know now that these industrial metals are really starting to come into the focus of the governments not just our government the Chinese government too that they are incented to keep the price down. The other reason to keep the price down from the government's point of view is that soaring gold and silver lead a lot of people to believe that the dollar is in real trouble. The dollar is being debased or the dollar's going away. So that's silver is kind of the anti-doll and silver going up means there's no more trust in the Fed or the government, all that kind of thing. So, you know, that's another reason why the government might want to squash the precious metals as a whole. Uh I just shared another graph here that just shows the current rise is very similar to 2009 on a percentage basis depending on where you want to start it. Uh and you know just the rate of ascent um is very similar too and and I don't have it on this graph but similar to the late 70s as well >> and we're we're even higher now at least on a MACD basis higher extreme than we were back in 2011. >> Yeah. I mean some of that is price too. So some of that is mathematical but yes we are and you can see the RSI at the top is more or less at its peak. Uh you know those on its own argue for a correction not a ch a trend in you know a trend change. So you know it's not a stretch to say that gold could go to 50 55 right correct normalize kind of supply demand and then start going higher. uh what concerns me, you know, and that from a technical perspective, that would be a concern. That's a reason to either hedge, take some profits, you know, trade accordingly like you would any other asset. Uh what's would scare me is the CME or the government um coming in with a drastic action that will knock the price down so quick that you don't even have time to get out. um you know so so ask yourself if you own silver what is it 70 70 something today and >> the silver futures last I checked we're had just bounced over 76 >> 76 right so I made this graph a few hours ago it's wrong so ask yourself you own silver you're high-fiving you know your your friends today you come in Monday morning and it's 62 what are you gonna do what if the CME came and drastically changed margin requirements. Are you going to sell then? Maybe. But it's gotten beat up and that so that's why you have to be kind of proactive with some of this stuff. And given that you have this outside, this isn't just a market story. The CME or the government can really take this down quickly. So all I'm saying is I'm not saying sell all your silver and take your profits. What I am saying is you may want to think about hedging. you may want to think about taking profits. And you know, it's just prudent trading. And you, you know, we do that all the time with stocks, with bonds, with everything else. Silver's no different. >> Yeah. So, that's a very consistent theme on this channel, which is, you know, rebalance. Uh, you know, don't don't get too greedy, right? You know, what is it? Uh, pigs get that >> get slaughtered. Yeah. Um, so, uh, let me ask you this, and folks, this is not personal financial advice. Uh, talk to your financial adviser about whatever step you might take here. But what's a little bit different about, um, investing in precious metals versus many other assets is there's a physical aspect to it. And there's a lot of people that are buying these metals for, you know, sort of long-term protection against fiat power, uh, debasement, right? And so, um, I totally I'm sympathetic to the person who says, "Okay, look, I've bought a fair amount of silver, let's say, and I hold a good chunk of that in in actual physical ounces." And I don't I don't want to sell those because, yeah, Michael, you might be right. The price might actually retrace, maybe even a fair amount in the near term, but I'm going to hold this for the next 5, 10, 15, 20 years. And I believe down the road then it could be worth a lot more nominally than it is right now. So, I don't want to sell it, but I'm Yeah, I I I'd love to not just ride this correction down if if that's what happens in the near future here. So, what would be what would be some potential hedges to look at putting on there that don't require you to sell your physical ounces, but you can still benefit if the price pulls back from here? >> Options, you know, the problem with option put options at this point is they're going to be very expensive because of the volatility. Mhm. >> Uh you know the u >> I'm curious price of options on an ETF that just tracks the silver. >> You could do it on SLV for instance. I'm actually using the silver ETF which is actually why the price on my graph was a little different than silver futures, >> right? Because they don't map. Yeah, >> that's what it was. It wasn't that I was that out of date. Um so you could you could buy a put on on the silver ETF. uh maybe you could buy a put on the gold ETF. There's there's a little basis risk that silver and gold don't move together, but generally they will and do move together. Um but the you know that's the problem is when you get to extremes like this, the cost of insurance is very high. You know, it's like buying a buying buying house insurance in the middle of a hurricane, >> right? You can buy it fire insurance while the fire is crouching in on your house. Yeah. >> Right. Right. Um so you know you have to decide what you are. Are you a pure trader? Are you a hybrid trader investor? Or are you just long-term you don't care? You know maybe it'll go to 90, maybe it'll go back to 40 on its way to 200. And you don't care how it gets there. you're thinking about where it's going to be, you know, 10, 20 years from now. And that holds true for every asset. What are you? Define what you are and what you're not. You know, if if you're buying futures, you are not a long-term investor. If you're buying physical gold and putting it in your vault and not thinking about it, you don't even really know how many ounces you have. You're a long-term holder for whatever reasons you may have. And that's that's fine. They're they're all fine. just know what you are in your own head. >> Okay. Um there are other things that one could buy put options on uh that will move when silver moves. Could be silver miners. It could be a levered silver ETF or fund. Um again, not personal financial advice. Um some of those will move more than others. Um probably the cost of those will vary as well. Um given the prices of of the premier right now on the on the options. I guess my my main question, Michael, is is if somebody is trying to think through this in real time right now, could they reach out to RA and say, "Can you guys kind of help me think through this and come up with the appropriate hedge for me given my personal position and my risk profile?" >> As you know, our clients, if they own silver, we'd be happy to help them. We have to know someone's full financial position. It's not it's not giving good advice if we're just commenting on one little part of their pie. So, you know, if you're a client, absolutely let us know. We'll be happy to help you out. If you want to be a client, let us know. We can talk through it. Lance, you did mention silver miners. And one of the interesting things is that silver miners have not been keeping up with silver. Typically, you would like to see silver miners doing better in silver. It's a leverage bet on silver, >> right? Just like silver is con kind of considered a higher beta version of gold and it's been doing better in gold here. So you would like to see the higher beta versions of various things doing better and u it that silver silver uh miners have not have been keeping up with silver. They've been doing well but not keeping up and that's just something to be aware of. >> Well, what what does that suggest to you? Does that suggest to you that they're about to slingshot higher? Or does it is it a tell that says, "Hey, if the miners aren't really taking off here, then that's the market thinking this rise in silver is maybe going to be transient." It suggests to me that this is a very speculative run here, led by futures, led by hedge funds, led by a lot of people that typically don't own silver or that don't care about silver as an insurance hedge that see an asset going up in price. Mhm. And and how much of it too is the fact that this is happening? >> I mean, silver's been white hot for a good while now, but this week it's gone bananas. This obviously is the Christmas holiday week. I mean, the pros are kind of out of the game, right? I mean, this is mostly just retail pushing stuff around at this point. Correct. >> Yeah. But, you know, a lot of the big institutions will use these times to to they have more relative strength than they typically would to to push markets. So, you can make the case that some of them are pushing and you know, if you wanted to short it this afternoon would be a great time. You know, we're recording Friday noonish. Come in in the afternoon when liquidity dries up. Like I think on Christmas actually my son told me this but Bitcoin traded down to like 25,000. >> What? >> Yes. I I a flash crash kind of trade. It didn't you know work its way down but there was a trade around 25,000. The point is that during periods where it's very illquid and we're going to have some of those next week as well that that you can push push less liquid things. silver certainly qualifies as that. So, you know, maybe someone tries to push it to a 100 next week, maybe someone shorts it, tries to get it down to 40, 50, whatever. So, you know, just just be a little extra careful to what happens in these illquid markets. >> Okay. Um, and look, we'll move on from the silver topic here. Just two things. One, I did say I would show this chart. Um I don't think you can really see the the numbers here um so clearly folks but you can see the verticality that I was talking about across all the elements of uh the precious metals space here gold, silver and platinum and I think actually as of today platinum futures are now up more for the year than silver futures. So platinum has now taken a pole position here. Um, and again, all Michael and I are are trying to say here is that this type of price action rarely resolves by trending sideways. Um, I would love it if it did as a as a silver, you know, of a holder of all these. Um, I'd love it if it kept going forever. Um, but, uh, I just am enough of a student of history to recognize this this uh, shape here in the charts and and realize what usually comes next. So, you know, obviously folks make your own decisions here. Um, but uh I have been saying a lot during the the rise of of uh the precious metals this year that hedges are always a wise thing to put in place. I have been happy that the hedges that I have bought um I didn't need them. Um made way more money with the continuation of the trend. Um which makes me glad that I just didn't fullon sell out. uh that I was, you know, using hedges as opposed to just selling big chunks of my position. Um but uh yeah, I mean for all the reasons Michael and I have talked about here, if you are just continuing to be naked long in here, it's fine. That's your choice. Just be aware of the risks, >> right? And the risks are also outside of the fund the typical fundamentals. That's what's a little more concerning. Um, so yeah, you know, just if you feel the need, protect yourself. >> Okay. All right. Um, so let me ask you a question I asked your buddy Lance last week. Um, [clears throat] so you know, I asked him just straight up. Do you think that 2026 will be the year of disinflation? And the the main reason why I asked that question was because um you know not only are we seeing inflation as as measured by CPI continuing to cool and I think the last the latest numbers that just came out kind of kind of caught a fair amount of folks by surprise that that CPI dropped from about 3 to what 2.7 or something like that. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Um, but as you guys have been saying at RA for a good long while, you know, the by far the biggest factor in the calculation of CPI, the headline CPI number is shelter costs. And um, for a good long while now, you and others have been saying, you know, those are very lagging inputs into the CPI calculator. And if we look at the more real-time inputs, we can see that the housing market is cooling. That that um in an increasing number of of parts of the country, not only are housing prices disinflating, but they're actually deflating in a growing number of markets. And rents are actually starting to deflate, too. And so that is going to bring down the shelter component in the CPI. And because it's what 40 some odd percent of the calculation that's going to drag the rest of the CPI down with it almost irrespective to what the other inputs into CPI do. So Lancer's answer was basically like yeah I think it's going to be a year of disinflation. Do you agree? >> Yeah. The other part of it is goods, tariffs. You know, how are tariffs impacting things? And assuming tariffs don't change, you get the impact of the tariff. However, that's passed on to the consumer, but there aren't additional tariffs. >> We talked about it's it's more of a it is proving to be it looks like it's proving to be more of a one-time price shock versus a sustained inflationary pressure. Yeah, >> exactly. So yeah, I I tend to agree that I think we will be in a uh you know, just a slow grind down to the Fed's 2% target, which should uh provide the Fed more comfort to either cut rates or not cut rates, but focus a little bit more on the health of the economy and the labor market, which right now are diverging pretty rapidly. But I I suspect that won't be the case. >> Okay. So, um, anything that that in that scenario where the Fed has to worry less about inflation and says, "Hey, we can start giving a little bit more love to the weakening jobs market." That that does seem to argue that more cuts would continue from here. So, is that your expectation? >> I think so. I mean, right now, the market's only pricing in one cut the entire year. I I that's I'd be shocked if that was correct. >> Now, you're going to take the over. Well, I'm going to say they're going to cut, yeah, more than that. But, you know, a year is a long time and there's going to be a lot that's happening this year. So, you know, don't be surprised if we're sitting here a year from now and say, "I told you I was right. They cut three times and then you say, "No, you were wrong." Because then they they raised it four times. Um, so, you know, kind of looking out over the next three to six months. I do think that assuming inflation, you know, that that last CPI number was a little difficult to swallow. You know, it it it was included part of the period where the government was closed. >> Yep. >> There wasn't full uh pricing of every good surveys weren't working. Um, so what I want to see is where is inflation come February when we get, you know, another month or two of data to really tell us what's going on there. >> We'll see that. But, you know, one of the things that has turned in in inflation is and [clears throat] look, we just got to parse the difference too between low inflation, even 0% inflation, right, doesn't mean lower prices. It just means flat prices, 0% inflation, right? So, everyone is is saying, "Look, you know, my groceries are still really expensive." It's like, "Yeah, well, you know, until there's actual deflation, your grocery prices aren't going to come down, right?" >> Um, but what drove the I think the majority of inflation over the past couple years was services >> and services are actually disinflating now, right? Um, so >> for the most part, >> Yeah. So the inflationary pressure has you know it I think we had good initially it was goods were disinflating uh some deflating but in but services were continuing to rise and that was driving inflation that's that was making it so sticky. um we we've turned a corner on services inflation, but then we had the tariffs and the tariffs pushed goods inflation back up again and but the big question was for how long, right? Was it going to be this one-time shock or was it going to be persistent? And I think we're beginning to see it probably was more or less of a one-time price shock. And of course, as more of these, you know, uh, trade deals get struck, you know, in most cases, tariffs only have to go down, right? Unless, uh, countries, you know, back away from the table and Trump gets angry with them again. Um, right. >> So, uh, you know, if if if services inflation was proving more sticky, I would I would think, okay, you got a better chance to say inflation's going to be more sticky next year than than than folks are or than than, you know, folks are beginning to to argue right now. So um so I don't know you know I mean I I again I think it comes back to with think you know status quo being the same with everything else shelter prices should drag CPI down now that how much relief are we all going to feel from this I don't know maybe none but but just in terms of the number that everybody uses to base policy off of it seems like that number is going to going to go down next year >> right there's another factor too what you know I think affordability is what's going to determine who wins the midterms. >> Yep. >> That it's always the economy. Um so affordability and Trump knows this, right? So Trump in his mind and his team are like, "What can we do to get inflation down by September, October, so that when voters go to the poll, they're going to want two more two more years of a Republican Senate House um leading the way. So I I think there's incentive. There's a lot more incentive this year than last year to do things that can impact towards lower inflation. So it's another wild card. Uh you also have the tariffs. What if the Supreme Court strikes the tariffs and the tariffs go away? Now that they'll be implemented in some other way, but maybe not to the full extent. So there are other factors too in addition, you know, what you said, services and goods and rent and all that stuff u that favor lower inflation. >> So I've got this earmarked for us to talk about. And actually part of the rant I was going to go into was going to talk about this, but maybe we should just bring it up here. Um, so the reason why I started with inflation here was because I wanted to get to your thoughts on bonds. Um, but let's let's talk about what you just mentioned and put it square on the table. Um, this is the year of midterm elections. Um, they typically don't go well for the party that's in charge, right? Um, and I had talked with Lance a lot and maybe even with you a fair amount right when Trump gotten elected was, you know, my advice to his administration was, man, let this economy tip into recession. Like just like let all the let all the natural market forces that want to happen happen and you can just blame it on your predecessor and hopefully you can get through it within a couple of quarters, you know, maybe a year, right? But by the time you're coming out of it, >> uh, you you you know, hopefully it's it's the maybe the beginning of the year of the midterms. And so you've got positive forward momentum going forward. You've gotten rid of the froth and and you know, a lot of the stuff that just needed to be put behind us. And yeah, it would have been painful, but again, you could have blamed it on on Biden and you could have uh now been showing a lot of positive momentum going into the elections. And that I think would have been the best ticket for saying, "Hey, keep me around." Right? I'm making things better. >> Right now Trump's got to avoid this economy dipping into recession, which he might, and that's one of the questions I want to ask you here in a moment. Um uh but I'm I'm with you, Michael, which is unless the economy is booming and people can vote on kind of more more higher level almost kind of, you know, luxury uh causes, um everybody basically pulls the lever. based upon how their pocketbook is feeling. >> And so, you know, are we going to get a chance to does the administration have enough runway to make things materially enough better for enough people uh to try to hold on to this uh this uh you know, hold on to the House or hold on to the the Congress? I guess I'll ask you that question, but I got a bunch of follow-up questions for you, too. >> Well, I I guess here's the problem. The economy is booming. We just had 4.2 4.3% growth in the last quarter, >> right? But it's a it's a very lopsided boom. >> Exactly. It's the K-shaped economy and there are very few that are benefiting from that and a lot that are suffering. >> So >> remember the you know the poorest person their vote counts just as much as the richest. It's one of the great things about America. Right. Yeah. >> Right. Not not every other country but this country. Um so so you know the question is how can you make the economy broader based and how much is just the AI data center buildout and the the new technologies feeding GDP but that money spent is benefiting so few people. So that's the challenge I think for Trump for the Republicans to keep the two houses. Um but generally I think the economy will slow down next year. Um it's kind of hard right now to see a recession because of that data spending growth. It it's just buoying the economy. Even though spending I think will fall off next year. Christmas holiday spending seems to have been decent. A lot of it was on savings, on debt, on on other things that >> buy now pay later that that propped it up. You know, people have prioritized holiday spending, but at the expense of January, February, March, April, May. So, it'll be interesting to kind of look back and when we get to June and see how lopsided the spending was into the holidays and then pulling back as we get in through the first few months of 2026. Um, sentiment, consumer confidence, those numbers are at recession lows and the University of Michigan is almost at an all-time low. the the conference board uh consumer number is at recession lows. So clearly there is a problem that consumers are not happy and at the end of the day there has to be a correlation between your your consumer sentiment and consumer spending and I think that's that is somehow going to converge next year. Does sentiment improve and spending, you know, justify spending or does spending come down? Uh, and again, consumer spending is twothirds of the economy, right? So, it's a big part [clears throat] of the puzzle. >> So, you know, I've channeled the administration a couple of times, you know, in recent videos, and not that I have any insight, you know, in insider insight to them, just just based on what they say publicly. Um and and they would say, "Hey, Michael, look, uh we have been laying the groundwork for an economic renaissance in this country." And that's what all last year was about. This year is where those pistons start to fire, right? And so, don't count us out, man. In fact, you know, there's going to be an increasing tailwind from all the things that we got passed in the one big beautiful bill and the deregulation and all the money we're bringing in here and the tariff revenue and the reshoring of jobs and you know factories that were having you know foreign players build here and all that stuff. Right. And um I can see that if they are successful in that that that that's going to make a difference. Right. >> Absolutely. Um, and uh, kind of like you, you know, I think elections in almost all cases just come down to how people are feeling. And I think in almost all cases, how people are feeling is a function of how easily they feel they can get a job. And the job market has um, cooled, you know, substantially. Um, and uh, you know, there's a lot of hiring freezes and we've seen, you know, more layoffs and stuff like that. So that's that's on the bad side. If the administration can be successful in increasing the job supply, and I don't mean necessarily with government jobs. That's that was sort of the approach of the last administration. This administration's actually tried to shrink the size of government. Um, but if if all of a sudden there's a lot more jobs out there for people because there were building all these data centers or because we have all these new manufacturing plants starting to come online and whatever that that could uh that could be a meaningful factor in here. Um, I don't feel like I've got enough visibility into this. I just feel like it's going to be a race to the finish. Yeah. I don't know which way it's going to go. >> Right. I mean I you know unfortunately I think the building of the data center is a lot more labor intensive than the managing of the lab of the data center. So you know and then the question of how many how many foreign plants are really going to be brought to the US. You know we saw this in his first term where a lot was promised and not a lot was delivered because it doesn't make sense economic sense to build a lot of things here. So, you know, the question is how many promises to do stuff will translate into jobs, >> right? But that's what the tariffs are for, right? Is there to make it make economic sense, right? >> We'll see. >> Yeah. >> And are the tariffs even enough to make it make economic sense? And if you're a company, you know, the tariffs are nice, but he he Trump's going to be gone in two and a half, two, three years. And will those tariffs go away? And now are you stuck with a plant in the US without the benefit of tariffs when you can you know you should have just stayed in what wherever you were. So you know a lot of that and then you of course you have the Supreme Court weighing in on tariffs. Um so you know I I think it's a difficult decision to move a plant to the US and bank on tariffs. Uh and even if the tariffs are in place for the next 2 or 3 years, what will the next president do? >> All right. All right. Well, look, um if if indeed uh it is, you know, uh not achievable, uh in this time frame we're talking about here, then it gets tough. Um, you know, as I as I as I said, this is my personal point of view, so I totally open to being wrong here, but I think at the end of the day, it's all about jobs and the trajectory right now of the labor market is not good. Um, and so if that trajectory continues unabated, I see it real hard that uh it'll be really challenging for the administration to hold on to Congress. >> Yeah. And one of the bigger problems I see is that the ones it seems to be hitting the hardest are the younger people, the people in their 20s, early 20s. >> Their unemployment rate right now is is horrible. I mean, it's it's very quite recessionary, >> right? I mean, so many of my daughter's friends are just they can't they have jobs, but they're not jobs they went to college for. >> Yeah. >> Um and I think that's that's a big problem. That explains why Mandami won in New York. it, you know, it explains why AOC is popular that that these people want something different, you know, is socialism the answer? Probably not. No. But but they want something different than than what we have. And we've seen that time and time again. You know, Obama ran on change. Trump one ran on change. Biden didn't. He ran on the same thing. And then Trump too ran on change. you know, we're demanding change from from the economic system. So, we'll see, you know, we'll see how the big beautiful bill and tariffs and everything else the administration has done can can it resurrect the economy, change the economy, increase jobs, but that takes a lot of time. And there's a midterm in nine months or so, 10 months. Is that enough time to change the the voters's minds? And if not, if you have a split Congress, that creates a lot of problems for the administration trying to get stuff through. >> Yeah. Um, and look, I I I'm not a political analyst here, so a lot of this is just guessing. Um but obviously I think that's why the the one of the reasons why the administration moved so fast right out of the gate this time was saying look we got to get as much push through in case we don't in case we lose the the Congress uh that at least we got enough of of what we care about in to carry us through the the next two years. Um what what could make a difference here and again um I'm not a political analyst but a headline that came out right before we hopped on here Michael was that the murder rate in the US uh dropped I think by a record amount over the past year um not to a record low but but dropped by a record percentage year-over-year and I think that's the one thing that can pardon the pun the economy in an election is security is if people you know if their biggest problem is is fear for their own safety. If you can provide enough relief on that, that that's something that people might use to to keep you around. I don't know if if that fear is is as widespread across the uh country as people's concerns about the economy. Um but if if further progress is made on that, that might be another factor that that uh might come into play here. >> I mean, I I I think though, like you, it's your paycheck. When's the next where's the next paycheck coming from? That's what's driving votes. How much money do you have in a bank? It's economics. Um, and that's what's going to drive the economy. And it's being kind of built under this affordability index. And the one thing that Trump really has gone against him is that the price level of goods, not the change in the price level, but the price level just reeks of heavy inflation. Yeah, >> even though the price may have stayed the same, price of eggs has gone down, I assume, over the last nine months, six months, >> it doesn't matter. It's it's that sticker shock, >> right? People still remember what they used to say. Yeah, that's the problem. >> Six, seven years ago. And that's the problem. And you know it's almost going to be even if we had ne disinflation negative growth rate of inflation. I'm not sure people will believe it because the price level is still very high. >> Right. >> So it's really an uphill battle for Trump and it's probably going to be an uphill battle for the next president until we kind of get acclimated to this new price level. >> All right. Well, I'm going to I'm going to come back to this whole um you know, the unnatural acts that might might be pulled out on on both sides in in a midterm year when we get to the rant, and we'll keep it a very short rant this week. >> Um but let's let's get to where I was planning on going through this discussion about inflation, which was bonds. Um, so we haven't had a bond update on this channel in a little bit. So it' be great if you could quickly provide one or at least your general outlook on where you think they're headed. But my guess is like your partner Lance, you expect yields to go down next year as inflation expectations go down. >> Yeah, bond volatility, bonds, you know, bonds and bond volatility are really low. They're really just drifting around, going nowhere. um all of the stories that we started the year off with the bond vigilantes and the you know talking about the fiscal problems the all the problems facing this country have kind of vanished right we've had good auctions we've had bad auctions they sparked very little reaction in the market CPI data sparked little reaction the the unemployment data is not really causing the market to the bond market to move a lot So I think what the bond market is kind of you've taken that that negative sentiment out right the bond vigilantes have kind of been silenced for the time being maybe they come back but I think everyone's kind of waiting to see what happens with inflation and if inflation does you know continue to trend lower like the last report that that kind of paves the way for bonds to trade lower with or without the Fed cutting rates. Um, you know, part of the problem with bonds now is all the financial assets that are going up 20% a year. Who wants to own bonds when you can buy the S&P and you make 20% a year, >> right? >> So, I think part of when you talk about bonds is what's going to happen to the stock market, what's going to happen with Bitcoin or precious metals because those are alternatives. Um, you know, we also have QE entering the market. Uh so you know there's a lot that that will determine where bonds go but I generally think they will drift lower in potentially a very boring fashion fashion where you don't really see it dayto day but you look back a few months and you're like wow they're down 20 basis points or you know maybe down half a percent or more over the course of a year. um barring any kind of shock to the markets, to the economy, to Fed policy, to whatever may happen. >> So, Michael, why did I mean in the past couple months we've had the Fed cutting rates, we've had the Fed stop QT, we've had the Fed start QE, even though it's unwilling to call it that. >> Yeah. we've had um you know the the the disinflation that I've been talking about become a little bit more apparent in CPI and stuff like that. Why is the tenure not budget? It's found its right level. It's found its fair value that that the supply and demand is just comfortable at that level. That's what assets do when they find the right price. They just kind of grind around and go nowhere. that you see it in volatility. Bond volatility is down sharply. Um it's just at that comfortable level where supply and demand are just offset. Well, um you know there there's that's it's a it's a very comfortable place. The problem is after periods of very low volatility, you tend to get spikes. Mhm. >> Um, so the question is >> I guess my question is is if if you expect that the the fair value of bonds is actually lower going into next year. >> Yeah. I'm not saying the fair value the market's fair value where the market is just has has found an equilibrium between the supply and demand has been relatively constant. Right? The the silver market is the exact opposite of that. There's no equilibrium between supply and demand. There's so much more demand than there is supply. >> Right? And that's why, you know, it's surging and and you're going to see even if it's going to 100, you're going to see three, four, five point moves up and down because the demand supply mis the supply demand mismatch is so off. Bonds, you found a great a great middle ground and that's where the market deems fair value. Doesn't mean that's where I think fair value is. I think fair value is lower from here, but that's where the market thinks fair value is. >> Okay. So, in your opinion, what do you think is going to lead the market to start adopting more your point of view than what it has right now? >> I think it's going to be lower inflation. I I think potentially weakness in the financial markets where people are driven to the safety of a 4% yield. >> Okay. >> Um, you know, there's a lot of things that can cause it. There's a lot of things that can cause yields to spike. Those bond vigilantes haven't gone away and they haven't changed their views. So, you know, part of the problem is when you're talking about where bonds are going to go, a good chunk of it is inflation. What what's inflation inflation expectations going to do? But what's very hard to predict is what is how's sentiment going to change. So, inflation can go lower. Inflation expectations can go lower. But if once again, you know, we're running massive fiscal deficits and there's a couple bad auctions and then all of a sudden everyone's worried that the, you know, how's the government going to fund their debts? Yields can go higher. So, you know, that's the balancing machine that we have to work through. And it's gauging sentiment in any market is very hard to do. But right now, sentiment seems to be okay, right? It it's not scared anymore. right? You're not seeing these massive moves off every bond auction and every piece of fiscal news and whatever else it may be. So, so as long as sentiment kind of just stays rooted, bonds will follow inflation, which you know should drift lower. But again, predicting sentiment over longer periods, you know, over 3 to 6 months is going to be very difficult. And that's why, you know, going back to silver and gold, that's the problem for the treasury and for the government is that if you were just to look at the gold and silver price, you would say there's something wrong with the US fiscal system, right? And that's they're very aware of that. So again, that's why they are incented to to keep a lid on gold and silver and that's being nice. >> Yeah. To try to pound those down. Um although of course all my fellow precious metals holders would say, "Well, there is something wrong with the fiscal system [laughter] in the US government." Um all right, I'm gonna move over to the center now that my buddy just my co-pilot just left. >> He got [clears throat] bored. I don't blame him. >> Um no, he's just really long sober and he doesn't want to hear any uh anyone. >> He's had enough of me. >> He might end. Yeah, exactly. [laughter] Enough of your doom and gloom. Um all right. Well, look, uh, I don't know if you're able to pull up, um, the, you know, latest TA on on stocks, but maybe we can we can migrate quickly from bonds to stocks, and just talk about your, well, first, what, you know, where things are right now in the markets, which I think is still elevated, is probably a kind way to say it, but, you know, we've been trading back at all-time highs uh, for the most part, uh, with equities. Um, you talked about one of the things that could could start driving yields down in the bond market would be trouble in the equity market. Um, I'd be curious to hear what your kind of top contenders for that would be, but I I got to imagine one of them would just be the bloom coming off the AI rose. >> Yeah. So, let me go through I have the technicals up on the screen. Maybe we go through those first. >> Sure. >> You see them, right? >> I see them. So, you know, the the I know if if I let you keep talking, the two things you would say on this graph are the continued uh the way the MACD and the RSI are setting lower highs, right? That they're continuing to >> Yep. They're continuing to trend lower uh with various buy and sell signals along the way in the MACD, but trending lower. And I I created a little box. We've really been consolidating for the better part of two or three months now. Um the moving averages have been very good guidance whether it's the the 20-day or 50-day. Um so the the good thing is it's hard to see on the graph, but the last day or two we hit record highs. So, in theory, we've broken out of that consolidation box, but not by enough to really say we're going much higher from here. Uh, market was down when we started this. So, we're probably right back into that box. But, um, on the margin, you know, your MACD is not that high. Your RSI is at 60. That's close enough to fair value. And you are setting new highs. So, that's positive. I one of my themes for next year is valuations and val the problem with valuations is they're incredibly difficult to trade off of. They they're very they're outstanding at telling you how the market returns will be over long periods of time, but over short periods they're very difficult. Valuations are extremely stretched. So looking ahead, is 2026 the year that they correct themselves or is 2026 1999 and they get even more stretched all over again. So you know as you trade the market next year valuation should always be top of mind. Doesn't mean you should sell. Doesn't mean you should buy based on valuations. It means you should be aware that there's a potential for a stormy environment if and when valuations will correct. The question is will they in February, will they in May? Will they in December or won't they this year? Is that a 20 or next year? Is that a 2027 2028 thing? And it very much well could be. So that's the one thing I would I would kind of keep centered in your mind. the AI bubble, some call it, you know, we don't really know if it's a bubble yet because some of these companies are seeing earnings off the charts, right? Nvidia, some of these companies have very reasonable, dare I say, cheap valuations, PEG ratios, >> assuming their revenue streams are sustainable and that's a >> assuming the revenue growth is sustainable. And what makes it difficult about this technology is it's changing. so rapidly that what the technology that's working today may be a completely different technology two years from now and all this invested money may be for not or they're on the right path and these companies really Nvidia is a cheap company we don't know right so I think sentiment around the AI bubble is going to be of utmost importance to the market and we've seen it for the last few months All of a sudden, companies are having to go to the debt markets. No longer is cash flow enough or borrowing from other people in other companies in industry enough to keep funding themselves. We're seeing what do we see? Meta and Google, I believe it was, or Microsoft come to the market for bonds. Oracle, same. Oracle CDS, everyone talks about Oracle's credit default swaps that are trading like junk now. Um, so how does that story play out? And >> sorry to interrupt, but we're seeing, you know, we're seeing sentiment shift in this space. It has gotten more sour over the past couple of months. And we're seeing it even in the funding where Oracle, a great example. I think you had Blue Owl who was going to buy a tunch from Oracle who passed on it, right? Um, but what's interesting is is, you know, you can't just, you know, you got to be careful just trading off headlines and things like that because, uh, this is a game that's changing in real time. And we just saw, um, >> uh, what was it with Open AI, I think it was, um, the Saudis just came in and and put a big chunk in there. And and I I don't know, but something tells me that the administration was probably pushing them hard to do so. And so even if kind of US-based uh players might be losing their appetite for this debt, there may be some additional safety uh or white knights that could ride to the rescue internationally if we're, you know, basically >> grabbing them by the throat and say, "Hey, if you want X over here, you got to do Y over here." >> Well, here's the problem with the Blue Owl news. If that news would have come out July, no one would have cared. No one would have thought twice about it. But it came out when there's kind of these heightened concerns, tensions in the market and it had a bigger impact on Oracle. So you know the market right now is sensitive. It its sentiment is sensitive. So news is going to you know on the margin probably be more negative than positive. And that's when we talk about environment like valuations. What's the environment in the AI space right now? And I think it's one of caution. So keep that in the back of your mind as well that that bad news will probably be amplified a little more than good news. And that can sh that will change and it can change. But that's the environment that we're in at the moment. And um that will you know the problem is that the these companies are so big and they their market caps are such a big percentage of the S&P 500 that it's driving the entire market. So that's u you know something to be sensitive about as well. Now >> all right now you gota there's a huge tailwind though too Adam QE >> Yep. >> QE is a massive tailwind. The Fed is now providing the markets with liquidity. Is it enough? We don't know. They just started doing it. So they're they're building up the coffers. uh but there is a high correlation between many asset returns and the amount of liquidity the Fed is pumping into the market. So you have a couple negatives. You know [snorts] valuations are potential negative. The current sentiment around AI is a you know on on the margin a little negative. QE is a positive and every week I think they're buying roughly 10 billion more. So, it's slowly adding to liquidity. Um, you know, so that's just something to keep in mind. It's there's a lot of different factors that are driving sentiment that are driving liquidity that that will impact the markets. >> Let me ask you this because this this will go into the rant a little bit. Um, what is your expectations for volatility next year? >> Why do you say that? I actually did a volatility graph. Um, >> hey folks, I swear I didn't know he'd done this. This that wasn't a softball, an intentional softball. >> And and the reason I did it is because volatility I I made that dark line at the bottom is now at the lowest level for 2025. And you can see it kind of dipped below those August September lows in the last few days. Um, you know, now now part of the problem with volatility is it's year end. markets kind of get illquid at this point of time. Volatility tends to to decline. So, some of it is just seasonal. But I I I get the feeling that we're going to start the year in a lower volatility environment, primarily because of QE, but as events hit the market that the potential for spikes in volatility could be significant. um you know we're up again 20% this year. What are the odds of having four 20% plus years in a row are are not high. So you know that's going to be there's probably going to be as we get into the new year more people wanting to hedge which will cause volatility to rise on the margin. Um various news events that are that we know are coming. the Supreme Court is going to rule on tariffs. We know there's a midterm election. Uh we know that the AI bubble is causing some angst. The yen uh you know, Japan, for instance, is talking about starting to prop up the yen. How does that affect the yen carry trade? So, there's events that will that have the potential to spike the VIX, but right now the VIX is very subdued. It's probably not a bad place to buy some hedges if you want because optionality is pretty cheap here. If you have concerns going into the first quarter of next year, >> that's actually a pretty good idea. You know, when when things are at extremes, uh [sighs] if they're extremely expensive, usually want to stick away. If they're stay away. If they're extremely cheap, usually you want to buy because your risk of downside is low. Um, we've had other players or sorry, other experts on this channel of late predicting higher volatility next year. One of them was sort of Mr. Volatility himself, uh, Jim Carson. And, uh, you know, he thinks that, uh, that every, uh, every portfolio should have at least sort of a hedge, uh, you know, 5% hedge, uh, just betting on volatility in it. And um I imagine right now because the VIX is the lowest it's been in a long time um betting on on an increase in volatility right now is probably pretty darn cheap on a relative basis, right, Mike? >> Yeah. I mean, this graph is really just a graph of the price of insurance. That's that's kind of the way to think about it. And it is cheap. So it's it's telling you that options are cheap. it it's you know if you do hedge and you want to hedge it's something worth looking at you know obviously the question is how long do you hedge for what do you hedge with there's a million other questions that accompany that but but it is uh something to consider especially at these low levels of volatility >> and obviously again that's a topic that Ria can help investors think through correct >> sorry yeah absolutely absolutely Okay. Um All right. Well, look, I'm so glad you actually had that that chart there. Um so, uh I think it, you know, you said something I've been saying an awful lot, which is that it's rare to have four even good years in the market straight in a row. It's it's we've had three great years now. Um so, to expect a fourth, you've got you've got probability working against you here. Um, sounds like you think next year will likely be volatile year. Um, do you have a strong sense as to whether you think it's going to be a up year or down year? >> I don't. You know what? We were talking a year ago and I told you this was going to be the year of the roller coaster. >> Mhm. >> And [clears throat] we started off going up and down. It was a It was a nice ride at first and then for the better, you know, better part of the last six months, we've just been on a nice glide higher. >> It's kind of like a kind of like a big check mark year, right? you know, we went down, but then boom. Yeah. >> Right. Right. Um so, and actually, if you remember January, we had the deepseek debacle for a day or two. Remember, um that was January. April, we had the liberation day mess, but then ever since then, it's been smooth riding. Um my guess is that whether we're we could be positive, but I wouldn't expect another 20% year. it would actually be healthy if we were up three, four, five, six%. Um, but again, there's a lot of news that will unfold. I can give you 10 bullet points of things that will happen throughout the year that we know, but there's going to be 10 more that we don't have any clue about or we can't even like the Epstein files. Is it a non-event or is it going to take down various parts of the government? Um there's, you know, what's China going to do with Taiwan? Will they do anything? And then, you know, and then Adam, there's things we can't even begin to will the UFOs land and change the way we think about things. I mean, >> the true the true the things that will be true black swans just things. I mean, who had Venezuela on their bing on their bingo card even in October, right? U things happen. Um so you know at this point I I think we should expect very you know be conservative on returns especially where valuations are uh especially with the AI bubble not as the sentiment is not as good in the in the market leaders the big caps u this could be the year where just those that are really adept at value rotation really win Right? If you can kind of beat the market market's kind of going nowhere, maybe returning something like the bond market, maybe this is the year where if you know how to shift between value and growth and this sector to that sector and small cap to large cap and vice versa, this is the year where you can outperform versus basically the mindless just buying the largest five stocks and sitting on your hands and going play golf, right? This may be the year where you actually need some skills to to have decent returns. >> And another way to say that is is this this may be a year where active trading or active investing will will potentially well outperform passive investing >> in theory. Yes. But there for a few years. >> Um no, I know. But but uh for the reasons you said, you know, if you're correct, then yeah, you kind of need to be active to stay. >> Um All right. So, I'm going to start wrapping things up here. I I'll get to the rant, which will be real quick. Um, trades. Have you guys made any trades over the past week? I think Lance said last week that you guys largely were kind of set for the holidays, but you tell me. >> We did in our all weather portfolio. We sold down our silver and our gold miners back to their model weight. So we started those portfolio that portfolio in August and silver started at a 3 and a half percent position. It because it had outpaced just about everything else, it became a 5 12% position. So we sold it back down to the model weight. Gold miners, they didn't get quite as high as silver, but similar concept. We're taking profits. We've basically put money, you know, we've we've taken that money. We still have the same percentage we want, but we've basically if silver gets crushed over the next month, our, you know, our net position is still in decent shape. And this is the same thing we did in some of those AI stocks that uh or crypto that, you know, had these magnificent runs and then have since been crushed. So, it's just prudent trading. It it's not it's not our way of saying silver is going to 20 in two months, but it's our way of >> Yeah. It's it's following your discipline, which is great. >> Exactly. That's exactly well said. >> Okay. All right. That it for >> isn't it? >> Yeah. It was a quiet week. >> Okay. All right. Um All right. Well, look, uh just to to start to bring things home here. So, all I want to say about the rant and and Michael and I have already sort of touched on the the message that I I want to deliver here is um again not having talked to Michael before we started to record to this um my gut has been telling me that there is likely more volatility to lie ahead and and why you know some reasons Michael and I have talked about some other ones here. Um as Michael said earlier a a a four pete for the markets is unlikely. um you know having a fourth grade or even good year uh in a row is is just unlikely. So as I said you've got sort of statistics against you. Um there's also we didn't talk about this much Michael but I'm sure you've got some feedback on it. There's just too much correlation uh amongst assets right now in the market kind of almost almost everything is going up at this point in time. Um and that can feel great um certainly you know when you own things but tight correlation means there's very little place to hide if prices start going in the other direction. Um this is why folks like Jim Carson who again also is predicting more volatility ahead next year um his whole his whole approach is is investing in truly non-correlated assets which are which are hard to find in today's market but they are out there and that's sort of what what GEM's specialization is. Um, another thing that Michael and I kind of talked on talked about is um that the world is increasingly sort of fracturing geopolitically. Um, the US is is really retracing, right? It's it's it's pulling itself out of things uh like uh you know its involvement in organizations like NATO or whatnot. Um it is is looking much more in towards itself towards this you know Monroe Doctrine 2.0 that we've talked a little bit about. So looking at the western hemisphere um Europe is militarizing uh Russia and China are increasingly flexing um and so you know we're we're seeing this this um sort of change of the guard here right where you know countries are increasingly saying okay let's let's place less important on importance on old alliances and let's figure out what we need to do for our own best interests going forward and when that happens there's just a lot less predictability because you don't know what each country is going to do because they're not going to follow the same playbook that they've been following. Um, as Michael and I talked about, we've got elections here in the US in the midterms. And I think it's it's a pretty safe bet that both sides, both both political parties are going to increasingly do whatever it takes to try to have the midterm elections go their way. And so when I'm just thinking of this soup that I just described there, it reminds me, Michael, I don't know if you know the song by Randy Newman, um, Great Nations of Europe Coming Through, but Pardon me. >> I don't know it. >> Yeah, it's a I mean, it's a funny song. I mean it's it's it's a bittersweet song as most of his songs are but he uses a lot of cutting humor and he basically talks about you know all the destructions that uh the great nations of Europe uh uh had on the world largely in the 16th century um because they just had their you know the the their eyes on certain prizes and they just kind of bulldozed everybody in their way to go after those prizes. And I think that's that's kind of like uh the environment we're going to find ourselves in here. Um one of his lyrics there was uh hide your wives and daughters, hide your groceries, too. Great nations of Europe coming through. Basically just meant like just get out of the way because if you stand in in in in the way of these these great parties, uh you're just going to get bulldozed into the dirt. And uh I I think that's the danger potentially of next year. Again, one man's opinion. I'll let Michael talk in just a second. But I think in a in a in an environment like this, you really want to focus on protecting your interests. Certainly, when it comes to the markets, uh protecting your money, um at a more societal level, it's just keep those you love close. Um to the extent that you can provide shelter and protection, make sure the ones you really want to have under your umbrella, you're getting under your umbrella. Um expect surprises. um just literally expect to have things happen that you you didn't plan for. Um and as Michael and I have already touched on a couple ways here, um this is a time to buy insurance. This is a time to have hedges in place uh in case things go against your your primary uh strategies here. Um, to me it just feel it just feels and smells like a year that's coming where defense and and prudence and protection is going to have a higher premium on it than it's had in the past 3 years. So, Michael, I'll take a beat here, but but what are your thoughts? You know what? as you were kind of talking there, I I kept thinking about our friend Neil Hal >> and the fourth turning and you know, we're just increasingly getting closer to the turning to to to this point where we've seen generational type news events and world events that happen and you expect things to get more volatile from a you know political, economic, geop political point of view as we're kind of nearing the end of this cycle going to the next cycle. So, I would definitely go back and listen. You've you've had him on multiple times, I believe. One fairly recently, but >> a couple months ago, he he's coming on first week in January, though, so he'll be on again soon. >> Yeah. And look, he you know, he'll be the first to tell you he doesn't know how it plays out. He wrote a book on it, but he doesn't really know how it's going to play out. Oh, two book. Well, one on how it's actually going to play out. The first book, the fourth turning is just a history lesson on here's what happens over and over and over again throughout society. Um, his second book was here's kind of things to look out for and here's how it potentially could play out. Um, so I you know what that we talk about valuations, right? That's the environment we're in. We're in a risky environment be in the stock market just purely because of valuations. Well, we're also in a risky environment because we're just getting closer to that forth turning and the pivotal events that will occur. Those pivotal events could be very bullish. They could be very bearish. But you have to understand that the volatility around those events around many other things that are happening will probably increase over time and that will force its way into the financial markets, >> right? And you know when when they do um when things really start moving faster and the stakes get higher and higher um [clears throat] you know people start making decisions um how do I say this um you know it it's trade-offs they're just trying to make the best trade-offs in the moment right and so it's like okay what can I do that will help more people than it hurts right and so the the decisions become less you get fewer of the decisions of how do we do this where nobody gets hurt, right? And it's like, how do we just manage what's going on here to hurt the least amount of people possible? And that's kind of the message I'm saying here is so you want to put yourself in as much position in advance where you can be the least affected by this as as as the wrecking balls of of history as it starts getting, you know, rewritten here going forward, uh, start swinging, how can [snorts] you make sure that you're the least likely to become collateral damage in that? And I think the easy answer is don't be passive. Don't and it's not, you know, it's it's investment wise, but it's everything wise. Don't be passive. Understand that change is change is always here, right? It's things are always changing, but the propensity for more change coming down the pike is higher than normal. So with your investments, be a little more active thinking. Don't feel like you can just ride this escalator up 20% every year. that's just going to be this nice ride and if you want to play the market a little, buy a dip. That that's not the way markets historically work. We've been gifted this kind of easy market and typically easy markets are followed by difficult markets and so just be active in not just the markets but your life and hedging all kinds of risks that come down the pike. >> Fantastic. All right. Well, look, Michael, um you've given us a great amount of time on your holiday week. Uh so appreciate you stepping in here while Lance is taking his wife to a extremely welldeserved uh nice little Christmas break. Um Lance will be back with us next week, folks. I think Lance and I are going to be recording on Thursday because the next day is his wife's last chemotherapy treatment. We're almost through the gauntlet and things seem to continue to be going about as well as we can hope. Um, so let's all continue to send him and and his family uh lots of warm wishes and prayers for that. Um, but Michael, um, I so appreciate your friendship. Um, I'm looking forward to seeing you at RA's event in Houston. What? That's next month, right? >> It's in, uh, I should know the date, right? January uh, 17thish. It's the weekend of Martin Luther King's uh, holiday weekend, birthday. >> Okay. So, yeah. Yeah. So, it'll be just be a couple weeks until I see you there. And then folks, if you want to still come join us, if you still have any tickets available, Michael, they can go to real investment advice.com and there's a banner at the top of the site there, right? That they can learn more about the >> Exactly. Yes. Yes. So, so come join us. We have quite a few speakers this year. It'll be a little bit longer than it was the last few years. Uh admin will be there. I'll be there. Obviously, Lance will be there. And uh we have a lot to share. Should be uh should be interesting. And dare I say fun. >> Oh, no. It'll be fun. It'll be They're always fun. And I like the changes that you guys made made for this year. Uh it's sounds like it's going to be even more social and a little bit more interactive. So, that's awesome. >> Um All right. Well, look, folks, um please join me in thanking Michael for spending his uh holiday Friday with us here um by hitting the like button and then clicking on the subscribe button below if you haven't already, as well as that little bell icon right next to it. Um, and obviously [clears throat] if you would like some help in uh some professional help in figuring out how to position your portfolio uh to ride through 2026, uh you know, whether it looks like Michael and I think it may or whether it unfolds a completely different way, uh you want to make sure that you're as as well positioned as possible for whatever may happen. If you um would like that professional help and would like to get it from one of the professional adviserss that Thoughtful Money endorses, these are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. Perhaps you'd even like to talk to Michael and Lance and their team there at RAA. Uh you can do that. So do all that just by filling out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com and uh as soon as you fill out that form, the firms will be in touch with you to schedule a chat. Um I'm assuming at this point, Mike, we'll probably early in 2026, correct? >> That would be my guess. I'm going to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, so it's not going to be me calling you back. >> Nice. Are you going to just be sitting in the sun drinking pinina coladas? >> That's the That's the plan. >> All right. All right. Well, look, I hope you have a great tan the next time I see you. >> That's the goal, too. >> All right. >> Yeah. Well, happy new year and um look forward to catching up in January. >> Same to you. And I I just mentioned or just remembered I forgot to mention one thing that did maybe because of or in spite of our discussion about everything that's going on in silver uh our thoughtful money's precious metals uh endorsed provider that's Andy Shechman's for Miles Franklin there. Um they still have some remaining supplies on the exclusive offer that they've made available to Thoughtful Money audience which is you can buy despite silver continuing to skyrocket in price. um you can still buy from them uh junk silverber at a dollar under spot. And so if that's something you're interested in doing uh then go to thoughtfulmoney.com/byssber to take advantage of that uh uh that uh promotion. Uh just fill out the very short form there and then Andy and his firm will be in touch with you right away as well. Um all right, Michael. Well, look, yes, right back at you, buddy. Um, have yourself a wonderful New Year's and I look forward to seeing you back on this channel early in 2026 and I look forward to seeing you in Houston in just a few weeks. >> All right, take care. Thank you. >> All right, Michael, you too. Everybody else, thanks so much for watching.