A National Housing Emergency | Animal Spirits 428

Summary

• Investment Tools: Y Charts is highlighted as a valuable tool for financial advisers, helping them save time on research and client preparation, thus allowing them to focus more on growth and client relationships.
• Historical Wealth Insights: The discussion on the Vanderbilt family highlights the historical challenges of maintaining wealth across generations, noting that modern wealth management strategies and professional advisement might prevent similar downfalls today.
• Market Valuations: Concerns about current market valuations are discussed, with a focus on the price-to-sales ratio of US stocks being higher than during the dot-com bubble, though differences in company profitability between now and then are noted.
• Market Recovery Patterns: A historical analysis shows that after significant market rallies, such as the S&P 500's recent 25% rise over 100 trading days, the market has typically continued to rise in the following months.
• Consumer Behavior: Despite economic concerns, discretionary stocks are performing well, indicating that markets are not currently worried about consumer spending pullbacks.
• Private Equity Performance: The performance of private equity is scrutinized, with recent returns lagging behind the S&P 500, raising questions about the sustainability of traditional private equity strategies.
• AI and Employment: The impact of AI on employment is discussed, particularly its effects on entry-level jobs, highlighting a trend of automation replacing certain roles while overall employment remains strong.
• Housing Market Challenges: The potential declaration of a national housing emergency is considered, with discussions on how government intervention might address the housing shortage and affordability issues.

Transcript

Today's animal spirits is brought to you by Y Charts. Future proof is almost here and Y Charts is showing advisers how to win back the one thing you can't buy. Time with advisers reporting saving 20 hours a week on research, portfolio work, and client prep. Y Charts has quickly become the secret weapon for advisers and teams that want to scale smarter and spend less time buried in spreadsheets. If you're headed for future proof, Y charts will be hard to miss. From live demos at their booth to exclusive book signing event with our COO Nick Puli, plus plenty of exclusive swag only available at their booth. Test drive the tools yourself and see why thousands of adviserss rely on Y charts, too. Win back hours every week to focus on clients and growth. Turn complex market data into clear, actionable conversations. Drive growth by turning prospects into long-term clients. Get 20% off your initial Y charts professional subscription when you start your free Y Charts trial through Animal Spirits. This is for new customers only. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and with Ben. Uh, all right. So, summer is officially over. I know we've been saying this for a couple weeks now, but at least it's officially over for me. Uh, my kids started school today. The beach is closed. We are closing the chapter of the summer. The last week for me felt like 15 days. I was thinking like, why? Why? Uh, well, it's not a no mystery here. I was off on Friday, took the kids to Newport, Rhode Island. Never been there. Uh, one of the takeaways or one of the things that struck me in Rhode Island, and this is true, I guess, everywhere or in in a lot of cities, but especially maybe in Rhode Island there there's so much money in so many different places. There were there's just yachts all over the place on Rhode Island. Just mega gigantic yachts. Uh, and there's old old money there. >> Yeah, that was the guilded age place to go. Like that was the place to be. >> So, we went for the the the cliffwalk. You see all the mansions? >> They still have the Vanderbilt house there. >> The Breakers is there. So, >> okay. >> Uh, Cornelius I built that house in 1896. He died a year later. Um, and I guess there's still there's still money there. Tons of money. I'm assuming it's not new money because who who in the world can afford uh $50 million boat. The Vanderbilts famously uh their money disappeared. Was that the third generation where was gone or the fourth? >> I think by the third generation and he was like the richest person alive back then. >> Um so I keep talking about audio books. I was listening to the tycoon, the first tycoon, I'm sorry, which is the one of the biographies about Vanderbilt. And when he died in, and so we'll get to the show in a sec. When he died in 1890, no, what year? 1877, he was if his estate was liquidated, he would have had one out of every $20 in the country. So 5% of all money was in the family. And then it was gone through generations later. So I was thinking about this. Are we going to have these things where family money goes bust in three generations? Like I don't think so. I think people are m much smarter. First of all, they don't have 10 kids, so there's that. Uh I mean the just Nvidia that that'll power you for generations to come. >> I think that like the second or third generation can still screw it up, but not to that degree. It's just there there's way too many smart advisors and strategies and yes it's very >> it's all professionally managed. You can't you can't spend a you can't like waste a$50 billion dollars. >> So I read the one the fortune's children which was about the fall of their house of Vanderbelt and they talked about how the the parties they used to have they would they would literally um light dollar bills on fire for cigarettes. Like they they just they would and they would spend like $2 to $500,000 on a party. And back then that I mean that's a lot of money now. Obviously back then it was an insane amount. So they like they were literally letting money on fire. I don't Yes, I I agree. It's it's hard to see that happening. If anything, the Vanderbilts would just be stronger, more powerful now these days. >> There was one part of the book where they're talking about when they first put the income tax in um and the top 1% in New York City had 61% of all income. And that was like even under reportported they they estimated. >> Wow. >> So we're going to talk about inequality today. And but yeah, capitalism. >> So long story short, you got a house in Rhode Island. >> Yes, of course. Uh anyway, just just blown away by the amount of wealth in Rhode Island, but also like it's, you know, every major city has yachts everywhere. >> Everywhere you go, there's >> every coastal city, I should say. There's probably not yachts, no offense, in uh whatever Idaho. >> Okay. I thought you were going to make a Michigan joke there. >> No, yachts. Yachts are water vessels and uh if there's no water, there's no yachts. >> Still the greatest greatest book title ever for investment book. Where are the customers yachts? >> Yeah, that's a good one. >> All right. Um I'm ready for future proof. As you can tell, we take we're we head there on Saturday. Everyone else will come Sunday. I suppose our live animal spirits is Tuesday, I think, towards like the very end of the conference. So, it'll go live animal spirits into a happy hour that we're hosting >> right into Bush. >> Right into Bush and Blues Traveler. So, that will be that's going to be an awesome awesome day. When is when is the Compounded Friends? What day is that? >> Monday. So, uh coming home from the beach yesterday, we were listening to I was listening to Bush getting ready, getting the juices flowing. The bush is flowing if you will. And I keep saying I was like, "Do you know this song?" She's like, "No." I was like, "How? I don't understand. Are you not a child of the 90s? How do you not know the song? And she made a very fair point. Uh, so 16 Stone, the album, which I remember very well. I was 9 years old. She was 8 years old, but she was the oldest child of two. It was her and her younger sister. So, if you're 8 years old, you probably don't you weren't listening to that album. I, on the other hand, youngest of three. I'm sure my brother andor my sister had that album which is why I was familiar with it. But it was a fair but like I was eight years old. I was listening to not Bush. >> My introduction to them was the they played a live show at the MTV beach house. Remember they used to do that for the summer? MTV would just move all their VJs to a beach house and they would do they play the songs from there. >> VJs. >> That was a thing. All right. Uh let's get into the market. This is from the Wall Street Journal. US stocks are now pricier than they were in the dot era. Someone sent us this and said, "Hey, I'm up in arms about this. this like this is a clickbait headline and it probably is a little bit but they show that the price to sales ratio for the last 12 months is actually now higher than it was in the in the dot bubble. I I price to earnings ratio is not even close. Um I don't know what it's funny I don't I don't know anyone who really subscribes to price to sales as like a metric to follow. Maybe for some individual companies but I don't think anyone follows it at the market level. Well, well, in 2021, it was a decent proxy, although you could have used anything for how crazy things were. Whereas like the percentage of of stocks that are over 50 times price of sales, like that was a >> that's true. It it does seem like it's more relevant, but I just this is not the As much as we keep talking about like, oh, the potential for an AI bubble, this is not the dot bubble. It there are so many differences between now and then. just the fact that the companies that are leading the charge and have the high valuations, they make a ton of money and the companies back in the do-com bubble did not make any money. They were still like forming businesses. These are more these are mature businesses and they still their stocks can still get hammered if they overspend and it doesn't deliver. But this is this is not like that. >> I would say yeah price of sales without without talking about the operations of the business and the margins. Come on, get out of here. But I think we would agree there are a lot of similarities and there are obviously a ton of differences, right? Like in ways in ways it's not too too too dissimilar, but if you're saying like like this is the dotcom bubble and there's going to be a bust where the NASDAQ loses 80% of its value, come on. So there's a quote from the article. It said, "At one point or another, valuations tend to matter and the expectations baked into those valuations matter. And those expectations are getting to be so dramatic, it will be very hard to meet them." That's a fair quote. >> Yeah. >> And you could have said it any time in the last seven years probably. And it that's why that this stuff is so hard to time cuz what's priced into the market? I don't know. >> Yeah. Well, a lot a lot. Nvidia on their call last week, Jensen was saying that they are estimating three to four trillion dollars in data center spend, AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade. That's in the price, right? Like it's out there. That's in the price. Matt made this great chart showing that the surprises are coming down on revenue and earnings per share for the quarterly reports. Obviously analysts were a million light years behind and they caught up and the expectations for these stocks like consensus EPS estimates and revenue estimates are insane. So there's a lot of uh there's a lot baked in. >> Yes, we're having the same conversation again. >> Hey, it is what it is. Um okay, this is a good good stat. Uh they're from bespoke. The S&P just rallied 25%. Over 100 trading days for the 12th time in the last 70 years, Ben. >> So one of those had to be co obviously. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. That's >> three months later it was higher every time. To your point. I'm sure these are all coming out of bare markets. I mean obviously. Yeah. 75 80 82 80 67 91 9 Yep. 99 09 20. Um All right. So three months later it was higher every time. So sample size of 12 100% hit rate. We will we will see. But as we point out all the all the time when I'm using bespoke data like this or Ryan's data like this behavior of the market like there's a reason why stocks were up this much, right? Bad news overdone. Boom. See you later. So great chart from exhibit A that kind of follows this and it looked at the symmetry in declines and recoveries and it just showed that like the the pace of the decline tends to match recovery and then they show the one in April which kind of so this is the average path 12 months before and after a bare market lows and it looks like a V obviously but the it tends to be like the coming out of it looks like going down. >> No, it also looks like a V. >> Oh nice. Yes. rocking a V-neck for people that are listening. >> All right. Uh that remember like five years ago that was your thing. All you wore was white V-necks. That was like that's all you did. That was your that was your Steve Jobs >> undershirts. I had to I had to I had to graduate those. >> Um but this one is following that that script kind of to a tea, but also it looks like it's coming off a little faster than average. But um remember the whole thing that was like, well, what a V-shaped rally. V-shaped bottoms are just dead. But those they've always kind of been alive, I guess. >> Yeah. Yeah. It's great stuff. I think it makes sense. Uh, all right, Ben, you have a little tickle in your throat. >> Let me tell you something. >> We've we've had sick kids for the past week. So, >> every time this year, at least, it's happened once before, so I'll go with every time. I I get a little I get a little sick. And I found this guy on Instagram. I guess he's a health influencer. Dr. Mayo07. So, I see this video. It's on my algorithm. Like, this looks disgusting. I'm going to try it to get rid of to clear your lungs cuz I have I get like sometimes I get like a pre- cold where you feel it and you get a little bit of mucus, but it never really blossoms. Maybe I have a strong immune system, not to break. I don't know. >> You're sick all the time, man. I don't know about that. >> I am. >> Yeah, you're sick all the time. >> All right. Maybe I am. Uh, half an onion, two cloves of garlic powder, two chunks of ginger. Ginger. >> This This sounds like you're trying to fight off vampires. >> And a gl and a glass of water. It was heinous. But guess what? >> Was awful. >> I can breathe now fully without coughing. >> That's a placebo effect. >> I don't think so. >> All right. That found it on found a guy on Instagram. It sounds like Hey, listen. Don't argue with the results. >> All right. What's this consumer discretionary thing? >> Another inside the market behavior of of stocks over news chart data from Sentiment Trader shows what happens after 17.5% of discretionary stocks record a 52- week high. Why 17.5%? It's a very specific number. >> It is because uh this works, but just go with it. You could ask him if you want. Why 17%. >> Uh what does he say? Higher one year later every time but one. >> So, but your point is that discretionary stocks are doing well, which so I guess some of my little theme here going through the doc this week is the markets don't care. Like people are worried about a lot of stuff, but not the markets. Like do you see any any worry coming from the stock or bond market right now about anything? Yeah. Where where's their worry? >> The 30-year 30-year bonds around the globe are breaking out to multi-deade highs. So that's where the road is. >> Okay. But look at this look at this story from the Wall Street Journal. Bonds are on a Okay, >> hang on. Just one one more point about this disc discretionary stuff. It is specifically odd that we are getting a lot of news and anecdotes about the labor market slowing and the consumer pulling back a little bit and yet discretionary stocks are doing so well. >> Yeah, it the markets don't seem to care that much. So, this one from the Wall Street Journal, junk bonds are on a tear this summer. Investors are piling back into funds that buy junk rated corporate bonds and loans. Uh, and they're saying this is despite the fact that defaults are rising a little bit, but they show junk bond yields, which I didn't realize junk bond yields spiked to over 8%. Uh, but have fallen in April and fallen ever since. They're back down to like 6 and a half%. The spreads are really low. Uh, they they also show the credit private credit stuff just up and to the right. Uh, the money managed by business development companies, which make private loans to small and mid-size businesses, that's is the private credit stuff, jumped about 33% over the 12 months ending in June. Obviously, that's to meet a lot of investor demand. as well. But people aren't worried about credit. The bond market is not. So you say the 30-year. I still think isn't the bond market just kind of normalizing. >> Getting it like the yield curve is becoming uninverted or whatever the word is. >> I don't know. I don't how is this normalizing? If you look at the spread between the two and the 30 or the five and 30, whatever, it's been up to the right for a long time. But you have global 30-year bonds yields breaking out. I mean, that's that's where the worry is. >> Okay. But I mean, I don't know. I still see I see see the 10ear at 4.3%. >> Yeah. >> That doesn't seem to concern me. Wouldn't >> it it's weird that you see the 30 years breaking out, but not 10 years. Like, wouldn't >> if inflation is that big of a worry, is it I don't know. I'm not a bond guy, but that that doesn't seem to make sense to me. >> All right. >> Last week we talked about value being dead. Someone sent me a chart or sent me some figures and I look them up. I think I sent this to you last week. Uh over the past five years, now maybe this is cherry-picking because this goes to 2021 when like the meme stock top, but whatever. It's five years. It's a it's a long time in the markets. Um DFA international small cap value and US small cap value are both beating the Q's and the S&P over five years. Small cap value, US and I think the international one is the one that surprises me the most. >> So an adviser sent this number these numbers to me. >> Yeah. Very >> kind of wild, right? Yeah. >> Uh, >> still work like Undertaker. >> Huh? >> All right. Did you see the story from Bloomberg? >> I did see the story from Bloomberg. >> Okay. More ETFs and stocks. I A lot of people said this is insane, but I I thought Samro had the best take on this. Did you see his take on this? >> He said there's more recipes than food ingredients. >> I like that. >> Like this this it should be this way probably. >> Yeah. Even though there's there's a lot of stuff out there that should not exist, like this this shouldn't be a cause for concern, this is there's there's going to continue to be more and more ETFs. >> There will never be more stocks than there are ETFs for the rest of time. How's that? This these lines will never decon converge. >> Yes, I that I agree with. I mean, single stock ETFs and there's going to be way more stuff coming. >> Mhm. >> All right. Uh this is a good thread someone sent us uh kind of touching on this. We talk a lot about behavior getting better for investors and we we also asked about like how much of the options trading is like degenerates versus how much is people finding income or hedging. And I think the one thing that will never go away is people who like light themselves on fire investing their money that did you look at some of these? >> No. So, this Zoomer on Twitter did a post and it showed this guy who went from $40,000 down to 600 trading options, obviously. And this they they pulled these all from Reddit and they they show Robin Hood screenshot. So, people actually are sharing this with Reddit like, "Hey, look what happened to me. I blew myself up. This person was down $120,000. Uh, another person was down $60,000." And this is like all the money they had. Someone said like my life savings was $100,000 went to zero. trading options obviously I I guess a good reminder that like this stuff is never completely going away ever. >> No, I mean this happens obviously with with sports betting all the time. Um again getting back to the tycoon book that I that I was listening to, they were talking about speculators on Wall Street in the 1860s. >> Yeah. These people would have been in bucket shops back then, right? >> Yeah. You know, the funny thing is whenever you read one of those books, an old Jesse Livermore book or stuff about the Roaring 20s, those bucket shops sounded really fun, didn't it? It's it's it sounds like going to a sports book at a casino. >> Yeah, >> cuz that's basically what it was. >> And imagine the characters that hung out there. >> Oh, yeah, for sure. You would have loved it. >> Oh, are you kidding me? >> Yeah. Me? No, I wouldn't have. Probably not. No, >> I would have been smoking cigarettes with a fedora, covering my bald head. Hey, you know what? Speaking of this this uh I was thinking about this in in Rhode Island. Whenever a hat blows off a bald man, it's so much worse. It always looks like an emergency and it looks like you're embarrassed about being bald when you're I'm not embarrassed about being bald, but if a fullheaded hair person, if your if your hat blew off and you did the exact same thing that I did, nobody would think twice. It's like, "Oh, his hat blew off. He's going to get it." When a bald man's hat flies off, he's like, "Oh, he's shamed. Shame." Do you think the bald man scrambles faster for the hat as well? >> No, but I think I think Well, perhaps. But it can appear that way to the naked observer. Like to the outside observer, you're like, "Oh, look at that poor asshole." >> Yeah. Like >> Yeah. >> Trying to change his hat. >> But I was wearing my bucket hat and whoop flew right off. I had to run around. >> Okay. See that? That's even worse. The bucket hat fluffing off, >> right? Cuz the bucket hat especially makes it look like you're hiding your baldness, which I wasn't. I was just trying to protect my neck. >> All right. You're going to wear the You have to You have to wear the bucket hat to Oasis. I feel like >> 100%. >> Right. That's a bucket hat kind of thing. >> By the future proof snuck it crept up on us. My sister said, "Uh, hey, do you want guys want to go to the beach next weekend?" And I said, "Uh, no, it's closed, but maybe come over. Let's hang out." And then I was like, "Wait a minute. I'm going to f going to California." >> That's right. >> You'll have to forget my friend. He's a little slow. >> Hi, my friend. All right. What's this email? >> What's this email? >> I can't read the day. >> All right. This is good. Good email from a listener. Do you think you could tell if someone is a bull and bear after interacting with them for an hour? Context. I went back to school for a master's degree last year. We had a secret Santa party where 20 classmates showed up. It was only a one-year program, so we didn't know each other very well at this point. At the end of the night, we went around trying to predict for each other classmate if their spirit animal was a dog or a cat. This is getting weird. Uh, I think we guessed right for everyone, which we found amazing. Do you think you could do the same exercise for investors, stock market enthusiasm? Enthusiast to figure out who's a bull and bear. All right. We didn't need that context anyway. >> Easily. Easily I could do this. >> Think so. >> Oh, yes. >> For just regular run-of-the-mill moral people, civilians, if you will. I just I remember at at a wedding a college friend I hadn't seen in a long time. This is probably 10 years ago was asking me investment questions the market questions and I immediately picked up oh >> this guy's like a zero hedge person. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You're right there there's there's only one question you need to ask to figure out if somebody's a buller bear. >> What's that? >> I'm not going to say it. But like you could say like you say like do you like a name of person, right? Like are you a fan of this person this online person? And if they say yes then you you probably know which way they lean. >> Buller Bear. Yeah, I I think we could Yeah. See, that would be a good game show for CNBC. Like it would be like the the dating show, you know? You have one person sitting on this side, I'm sitting over here, we have three like bulls and bears like the what was the dating game, you know, just like that. And you have to guess. >> All right. >> Match perma bears up together. >> This is wild. from T1 Alpha. Just remember, no matter what happens today, 70 million working Americans will still be buying a video every month whether they realize it or not. And he broke down the top 10 stocks and I guess he's estimating, I don't know where these numbers come from exactly, but the daily, weekly, and monthly flow into the top 10 names. So, for example, daily flow for Nvidia, $95 million, weekly flow, $475, monthly flow, $1.9 billion. >> This is impressive and it is true, but despite this fact, in 10 years, three or four of these stocks will not be in the top 10 anymore. >> Sure. Um, >> that's the that's the thing that like you think the index funds are propping these stocks up, but some of these stocks will be replaced and they will fall. I mean index funds and retirement accounts are propping up every stock to a certain extent at least the ind the ones that are index in indexes. How could how could this not have an effect? It's not to say that you're you're 100% right. Ultimately fundamentals will drive which stocks are in the top 10. >> Of course. And also and also these relentless flows into the market absolutely are having some impact. How could they not be? It's so much money. If your point is there's a lot of money going into the stock market, so stocks are going up, that's not a clever point. Like, duh. Of course, if a lot of money more money goes into the stock market that comes out, stocks are probably going to go up. >> Yeah, it's just wild. Like, I've never seen it broken out this way. This is this is good work. >> It is interesting. Okay. Uh Wall Street Journal had a story about the vibes. The middle class vibe has shifted from secure to squeezed. and they look at consent consumer sentiment by incomes $100,000 or over 50 to 100 and under 50 and under 50 has been relatively low for a while >> but but stable. >> Yeah, you're right. Relatively stable. This this is why so a lot of people were sharing this chart on social media. This is why I don't think this chart is that big of a deal because look at how uneven the 50 to 100 range is. it this year alone. It dropped in April, then it spiked for two months, then it fell again. >> That's noisy. >> It's very noisy, right? This this isn't like a three-year chart. This is a one-year chart. >> You know, I didn't realize until you said it, I didn't realize that like this starts in November 2024. >> Yeah. >> So, it's it's a very noisy chart, >> but I thought this I thought this part was funny. So, anyway, with all this stuff, like it's it's so dependent on where you live, right? Middle class is not a national thing. It depends where you are. So these national numbers, middle classes, $50 to $100,000. I think this is part of what like annoys people is these definitions. I thought Pew had a good research uh Pew Research had a good definition for middle class. Uh those earning from 2/3 to double the median household income. Fine. All right. Anyway, this this quote made me laugh a little bit. Not like haha, but like of course it's it's a dumb quote. Folks that are low and moderate income, they don't have any extra money anymore. Bostic told an audience at a recent town hall meeting in in Alabama. Um, obviously >> you don't say you don't say. >> Is there like there's like a weird amount of of I I don't know if virtual signaling is the right word, but an obsession about how little money lowerass income lower income people have. Obviously, and it's not to be insensitive, but this is not you're not making a point by suggesting that folks that are low and moderate income, they don't have extra money anymore >> or are going to struggle to Yes. Um >> Wow. You don't say. >> Yeah. Well, the the article was full of stuff that kind of showed how this cohort is getting squeezed. And this was the the one this is one of the examples that made the most sense. So, United Airlines said premium cabin revenue in the most recent quarter increased 5.6% while economy cabin was negative. So they're they're just saying again that the high-end is still very willing to spend. The lower and middle ends are cutting back and there was a lot of different examples in it. So that that does seem to be a trend that we've been hitting on lately. >> Yeah. >> Um okay, but this is another thing. The Wall Street Journal, there was a new poll. This is another reason why I think the sentiment ones are so hard to understand. So they look at um the question is people like me have a good chance of improving our standard of living. agree or disagree. And this goes back to like the 1980s. So, this has been going on for a long time. And for a while there, it was 60 to 70% or so. And then the pandemic hit. And it kind of started happening a little bit before the pandemic, but this thing has crashed in the past 10 years. And now it's 20. I think they said it's the lowest it's ever been. 25%, which is a record low dating back to 1987. Think that people like me have a good chance of improving our standard of living. And I think this this is just a case of social media breaking sentiment readings forever. There is a before social media and an after social media. And it's completely rendered sentiment and vibes impossible to measure anymore. >> But I think the pandemic broke it. >> The pandemic helped. The pandem Well, this was already trending down. The pandemic broke it wide open. >> Yeah. >> And I I just think that these figures are much much harder. Like I don't know how they did this but they did an actual versus predicted consumer sentiment. This goes back to like 20 years and the actual versus predicted to your point tracks pretty closely until the pandemic and then coming out of the pandemic the predicted what the sentiment should be based on past readings is not like that at all. May maybe I think you mentioned this a couple weeks ago how weird life seems since then. Maybe we haven't spent enough time thinking about how much how much how many brains were just completely melted from the pandemic and haven't recovered. It just it was a period of time that we went through and it changed us forever and some people haven't grappled with that. >> Oh yeah, >> it it Yeah, we spend a lot of time talking about how like a lot of these surveys are are either broken or not real life or talk to people and it just doesn't feel this way. Uh, and it doesn't matter for the market, but it definitely does matter for for politics, which obviously matters a whole lot because that's where the laws come from. And people vote based on how they feel. So, it definitely it's definitely not nothing. Even if it's even if it feels overblown. >> Yes. That that's probably the place where the vibes matter the most. >> 100%. >> Right. Like because the the economy eventually the data wins. Like you can think what you want about the economy, but it is what it is. But yes, >> also not to be insensitive, but just to be objective here. We spend a lot of time talking about how the lower income consumer does not move the stock market. They are responsible for less than 1% of the earnings of the overall market. But as a cohort, obviously their vote matters as much as everybody else's. And and I don't know the the how like how it breaks down in terms of the number of votes, but that's where it shows up in a big way, >> right? And of course, politics, local, national impact, national discourse. >> And maybe that's why those sentiment numbers are so volatile, right? Because people are changing their minds about this stuff all the time depending on what happened. All right. Roger Loenstein had a great piece in the Wall Street Journal about why US capitalism is unlike any other. And this is the thing where that last sentiment reading from the Wall Street Journal doesn't make sense. Like people like me have a good chance of proving our standard of living. Um he he compares us to Europe, but um he said, "American capitalism is especially pitched toward getting capital to entrepreneurs. Last year, the US registered a record 5.5 million applications for new businesses, one for every 24 households." >> And I don't know the exact number, but it's something like 60 to 80% of all small businesses don't make it, right? They completely go out of business. So, but this is the these are the people who think like, yeah, my life is going to get better if I try to do something like this and I try to start something on my own, it's going to work for me. Like that is >> those are the bulls. >> Yeah. Right. And this is one of the things out of the pandemic that happened that was crazy. More people than ever decided to start their own businesses. >> Yeah. Like predicted that in a million years. >> Take Dr. Mayo07 for example, >> right? >> He just said, "Hey, I'm going to fix Michael's cold." Uh anyway, like and subscribe. >> And if there's any werewolves or vampires in the neighborhood, they're going to be good, too. This one was crazy to me. Um he says, "Europe is more equal, but also poorer. Per capita income in Arkansas, one of the poorest states, is greater than in Germany." >> Huh. >> Overall per capita income in the US, is an astonishing 84% higher than in Europe. Um he said obviously and but his to his point, the the lower income, he said, is way worse in America because there isn't as big of a safety net. All right, this seems like a weird stat. Per capita income in Arkansas is greater than in Germany. Come on. He said, >> you don't believe it? >> No. He said overall per capita income in the US is in the gap shrinks if one adjusts for purchasing power, but by any measure I mean yes, the point that's a it's a fair point. I just that sounds that sounds truly unbelievable. >> Okay, Grock, is this true? >> Okay. Um, Ben, speaking of Grock, last week I think, tell me if I'm wrong here. I think when I mentioned what I was doing on McDonald's, uh, for on quarter for McDonald's, when I asked about the we were talking about quick service restaurants versus versus sitdown and fast food and all that sort of stuff, and I asked the AI in quarter to make me a chart of same store sales, and then it grabbed me. that like uh it numbers the quotes. So then you you scroll over it and it takes you to to the paragraph and question what they're talking about. >> So I was talking about that and like with the through the lens of fu the reason why I brought it up was just to demonstrate how fast AI is moving and the email that we got a couple weeks ago from the analyst who is being let go. Um all of this sort of stuff is truly breathtaking. Yeah. By the way, it's hard to cut in. I had a phone call with a guy who lost his job. He's getting interviews and he's moving on. >> He's gonna he's going to be okay. >> That person? >> Yeah. I talked to him. >> Um, good. So, somebody emailed this to us, a paper out of Stanford said, "Canaries in the coal mine, six facts about the recent employment effects of artificial intelligence." Uh, I uploaded this to Chat GBT cuz I'm not reading 57 pages. I asked for the most important points and literally Ben maybe two seconds I think it was closer to one second it gave me this six key facts >> that is that is the most impressive thing is just how quickly and if it if it takes like 10 seconds to do it you're like geez this is taking forever but some most of the time it's like instantaneous how how it does it is it is pretty fast >> so let's look at some six key facts employment decline for young workers in AI exposed jobs so early career workers 22 to 25 in AI exposed roles, software developers, customer service have seen steep employment drops. Uh overall employment strong but young workers lag. We know that automation versus augmentation matters. So declines are concentrated where AI automated tasks uh versus augmented tasks. Uh anyway, I don't need to read all six, but look at this chart from Ned Davis research. So, it shows unemployment rates by education. Less than a bachelor's degree, high school graduates, no college, no high school diploma. And look at the unemployment rate for college graduates. It's the only one that looks like this. >> It's very >> entry entry- level jobs are are in a world of pain. And this I guess this is the big worry. Not that AI is going to replace every job or, you know, make sure that we're all out of work or anything like that, but the entry level automated work. >> Here's the weird thing though with this chart that I maybe I'm not reading. So, less than a bachelor's degree, high school graduate, no high school diploma. To your point, though, like less than a bachelor's degree is is falling. These other ones are stable. Haven't moved at all. I thought the big worry was like, you know, call centers and maybe those things just haven't happened yet. Shouldn't Shouldn't these this be the low hanging fruit? It's it's interesting that it's the college grads that would be impacted first. I don't understand why the people below college are not also seeing a big impact from this cuz you would think well those jobs can or is it because those are more in-person physical labor type of jobs? >> Also, the immigration crackdown is probably why less than a bachelor's degree unemployment is falling. I would >> guess. Good point. Okay. All right. Uh, last week we talked about the micro strategy and I thought that you gave a pretty I thought you kind of gave a defense of Michael Sailor. You have been recently. >> Well, hold on. Hold on. Defense, not of the stock. I just think what I think what he's doing is super interesting. >> Yeah, you you gave him credit for it for pulling it off essentially. It is funny though. Anytime you talk about something like this, the the crypto people will come in and be like, "You guys still don't get it." I do get it >> and I and I thought but someone sent me this article from CoinDesk and it talked about Jim Chainos is doing I think I forgot to mention this. So he called it financial gibberish. So he he obviously is not a believer. He he just said the company offers nothing unique beyond winning Bitcoin. And so Chainos's strategy is he's going short micro strategy long Bitcoin. >> Well you look at a chart of Micro Strategy divided by IBIT. It is it is very much at like key potential support. >> It hasn't outperformed all year which is interesting. >> I think that that so he's just saying listen the premium is going to shrink >> and to me that aso yes as opposed to like trying to short micro strategy. Um this this is a way more reasonable strategy to me. Yes. If if you really don't believe in that this is going to last. >> Yes. If you short Micro Strategy outright, that's >> he thinks just he thinks all the other firms doing this, he said 100 other 40 140 firms worldwide >> are doing this these treasury strategies that will cause a premium to shrink and that that to me seems like a reasonable bet. I don't know. >> Yeah, same. >> But I was on CoinDesk and looking at this this uh story and another story came up and it says rich Bitcoiners are reportedly spending BTC on luxury holidays. Does this really make sense? So, I guess there's a story in the Financial Times about how people are now allowed to spend crypto on private jets and and taking yachts and these really nice hotels and people are spending their crypto. And this article was like, "Hey, hey, hey, is this the right thing to do?" Remember the Bitcoin pizza guy? He spent 10 bitcoin on a pizza and or however it was. And uh does it really make sense for these people to spend this money? And >> if you have $50 million in Bitcoin, you spend it. What the hell? And it's like, well, we don't know for sure. If the bull market continues, then maybe not. It's like, guess what? If you have enough Bitcoin and crypto to take private yachts and private planes, and yes, it's okay to spend some enjoy it. >> What is wrong with people? >> Yes. Counting your your Bitcoin is not going to make you happy. >> I think there might be more to life than that, Ben. >> Yes. >> Wow. Okay. Um All right. So there was a report last night Trump weighs declaring national housing emergency. Uh Bessant told the Washington Examiner, quote, "We're trying to figure out what we can do and we don't want to step into the business of states, counties, and municipal governments. We may declare a national housing emergency in the fall. I mean, there is a there is a housing emergency. I I what the solution is, again, this is like out of my purview. Can they can't can't they buy mortgage bonds and just get the spreads down a little bit? >> That's the thing though. What would they what could they actually do that would fit? Because the whole point is depending on estimates were 3 to 5 million housing units short. That's what we've underbuilt in the past 10 or 15 years. So I guess yeah, our solution to almost everything is just more debt and it would be okay, we'll lower rates, but would that really fix the housing emergency? Would that make it I mean it would decrease the monthly payments but wouldn't it demand? >> It would unlock a lot the demand it would unlock a lot of supply too. Not saying that would fix everything because you're right that we are underhoused. >> Prices would probably go up again though. >> Uhhuh. >> That's that lowering mortgage rates alone is not going to fix the housing emergency if it really is. They the thing is he said they don't want to get into the business of states, counties, and municipal governments. That's what they would have to do. They would have to say blanket. We're going to make it easier for house for home builders to build. Cut through all the red tape. If you do this, we'll give you a governmentbacked loan to build houses. That's what they did in the 50s. That's how they got all those middle class houses from the people who came home from the war. The government literally backed the mortgages and they made they took all the risk off the plate of the home builders. That's what they'd have to do. Short of that, I don't see how they could fix it. That's my thinking. Like what would actually help, I don't know. All right. The Wall Street Journal had a piece on private equity returns and it says Yale's trend setting private equity strategy is getting harder to pull off. We talked about this a little last week. They look at the annualized returns for the decade ending June 30th. Why June 30th? Because that's when most of these Ivy Leagues report. And they look at the 10-year returns in 2025, 2015, and 2005. And private equity continues to go down. The S&P has kind of slaughtered private equity in the past 10 years. Now, here's the thing. These numbers for private equity are probably even worse than they look on here because I don't ever really trust these private equity indexes because they're usually self-reporting. The returns for IRS are not the same as compounded returns for like mutual funds and ETFs. So, I would always take these numbers with a grain of salt. >> That's funny. I was going to say these numbers actually look good. Like, all right. Yeah, the S&P did 13 like whatever. It is what it is. But 9% for private equity for 10 years, that doesn't sound bad at all. But you're telling me that it's you don't even think it's 9%. >> I don't I never believe these private equity index numbers. I think because again they're self-reported. Like if you have a really terrible fund, you're not gonna go, "Hey, here take these take these results, put them in there with the other ones." So I I think they're always a little lower than they than they look. But uh yeah, you're right. Not so they were 9%. But the thing is they talk about how all these Ivy Leagues are not following what David Tenson said and his whole thing was you should always have at least 30% of your assets. This is for the Ivy Leagues in cash, bonds, or hedge funds. And they said five out of the 10 Ivy League universities do not have that. So the liquidity crunch you mentioned a few weeks ago in Jason Swag's article, that's why like these they just did not think through that that calculus of having something. >> You know what's weird about a private equity index too? Like it's not it's obviously not investable and nobody gets nobody gets this return. >> Exactly. Yes. It's impossible to get. I mean, some some people would say, well, if you invest in like the big private equity players, that's probably essentially what you're getting as an index because they're so big. But, yeah, it doesn't exist. >> Um, all right. I was listening to a firm's conference call because they had a blowout stock had a great >> Is this another one? I think last week you said Door Dash is the stock you've been most wrong about. Don't you think the collective Royal Wii was probably the most wrong about Affirm as well? I was I was not I was not >> I'm not saying you this is a firm that people mocked relentlessly. >> No. Well, in fairness in fairness I think people just lol mocked uh putting Chipotle on the buy now pay later type of thing. >> Yeah. But but the whole thing of buy now pay later. It's like this is a fad. This is a flash in the pan. This is never Yeah, there's probably some of that. >> I feel like there was a lot of that when this company first came out. >> But I see a firm popping up way more when I'm buying stuff on my phone. like it's it's a button there next to Apple Pay and Venmo in a lot of cases. >> That's true. I used it a few times early on, but now I'm like, what's the point? I I don't >> I would use it on a big ticket item. If you can get 0% APR for I don't know, a watch for example, right? And you could like why would I mean that sounds appealing anyway. Um the gross merchandise volume up 43% year-over-year to $10.4 billion. Active consumers up 24% transactions per customer up 19%. They finally reported their first quarter of GAP operating income. Um, but this is the chart that I wanted to share. If the consumer were under any duress, now these are these are well, it doesn't matter the duration loans. I said these are short-term loans, but it doesn't matter. If the consumer were under duress, this is the place that you would expect to see it, right? you would expect like a younger cohort. Um I'm looking at delinquency performance 30 days plus and they show it every year 20 21 19 etc. Nothing here. Absolutely nothing here. I had a friend this weekend. We're at the beach and the the the Great Lakes are aptly named. I'll just say that. Beautiful day on the beach this weekend. But a friend there at the beach asked me like where are we? Like do you think that we're going to get like could we get a recession in the next year? Like when is this stuff going to like are the tariffs going to hurt? And it just anything could always happen. It just doesn't seem like it seems like people are still waiting for something really bad to happen. And it just seems like we're going to keep waiting and waiting and waiting. >> Well, no. I mean, come on. Something bad will happen because that's the way it works. We don't know what it is. Something will happen, >> right? But it I think it my point is I think it has to be something bad to happen to force the hand of a recession. It's not just going to happen. >> Yeah. Yeah. No, no. There needs to be an event, a catalyst. Like it Yeah. We're not just going to we're not just going to run out of money or >> But that's what that's what people thought. I think, well, once the excess savings is gone, right, >> that'll do it. But no, >> weird. End. We've been doing this for so long, not just a podcast, but talking about markets and this is in the record books. Like I was thinking about that this this period will never not have existed. I know that sounds really silly and dumb and obvious, but my point is this. for people that are that have been following the markets that are around our age that came in in the I don't know 07ish time frame coming out of that in 2013 when we first hit new alltime highs there's been people that have been fighting this bull market since 2013 that have been waiting for the return of whatever value this that the way that things used to be. Guess what? This period of time, this bull market from 2013 to 2025, this is 12 years. It's not nothing. Now, it's not 30 years, but whatever happens from here, and maybe there's a bare market that takes it all the way. We have a lost decade. This period of time is in the is in the history books. Like, you know, we've we've read all the books about the 60s and the 70s and this. This is a chapter. This is like a not so small chapter in the history of the stock market that we just experienced. >> All right. If this was a 1980s movie, I'd give you one of these. >> Slow clap, >> right? >> No, I Yes, I agree. We're like, we just live through one of this this time was really different. >> 100%. It absolutely was. >> Oh, remember, oh, if this time is different, people kept saying, oh, I guess this time is different. Yeah, it was. It literally was like all the baselines for the for how big stocks can get and the growth rates they can have. It really was different. I remember Michael Moeson did this piece in the mid 2010s about like if we just put a baseline on these tech stocks, they would have to have like some of the highest growth rates in history to justify these mo these valuations. He was saying like and guess what we did have that >> right right >> it is pretty >> by Mobison is he was 100% right very few people could have forecasted this that these giants would continue to grow and take market share and and accelerate their margins and if if Mobison's piece said I'm making this up that there was a 3% just base rate that this could have happened it happened >> right yes it's really wild um okay here's something people might be concerned erned about. But I think this is more of a personal Oh, Duncan says we're jinxing the market right now. >> Yeah. No, I stop. We do this every week. We've been doing this for years. Yeah. One time it'll >> So, this is one of the And I've talked about this a lot. I think I wrote a blog post about this. I got a question about it from someone, but Bloomberg has a piece that cars are getting so expensive that buyers need seven-year loans. And it talked about how once rare, seven-year car loans are fast becoming the norm. Uh, so average sales prices for cars is up 28% in the past five years. and 7-year loans represented 22% of all new vehicle financing. 6-year loans once considered the upper end of the range are now most common 36%. So 6 years and up is more than half of all new loans which is kind of nuts. And I so they they interviewed a few people to ask them about this. I think this is more of a personal finance issue of people have in their head what their monthly car payment should be and they'll do whatever they can do to get their monthly payment to that level. >> Mhm. >> Now, it's it's a not a very smart personal finance decision unless you can borrow at I don't know 3% or something 4%. Um, and obviously it says like the 84-month loan versus a 5-year, you're paying on an average, you know, almost five grand more in interest over the life of that loan. But I think this is just people having this idea of what their monthly payment should be. I don't think this is a sign of like consumer distress or any means. I think this is just people keep wanting to keep their line item on their budget the same 100%. I've got a new car coming up in April. I don't know what I'm going to do. We'll talk about it when we get there. >> Okay. >> Um, relax, Duncan. All right. >> But you know what's so I I didn't put this in the doc cuz I know we >> Yes, we've been called toy for like six years now. So eventually sometime it's going to happen. >> Uh September, Duncan's not wrong. September is not a great month for stocks, especially uh in the first year of a presidential cycle. Now, why is that the case specifically? Is it total noise? Maybe. I do think there is something about people returning like to Wall Street. Uh I don't know. >> It is funny how that that is always a thing of like, well, they're on the Wall Street traders all in Hampton's for the summer. Now they come back, then things are going to really start to matter. >> Yeah, I know. It's it's silly, but what other what other reason would you ascribe to September not being a great month? It is bizarre. It does. I don't know. I do wonder if the first week after Labor Day is is a seasonally weak week. A weak week. And also, who cares? But just like >> Also, I said we I said we need a healthy correction. Maybe this is it. >> We do need a healthy correction. >> 5% slap in. >> Uh people hate when you say that that we need a correction. You know why? Because it's like, oh, we want people to lose money. No, we don't. I think my my point when stocks get too expensive and and go straight up, which by the way, they haven't. We we have cooled off. any of the excess that was in the market like the XXXS, we we blew that foam off the top, right? We've gone sideways for a couple weeks. It's all good. Uh but expensive stocks, you just have less margin of safety, right? Like a stock that's trading at 10 12 times earnings, if they miss by a penny, it's probably not going to go down 20% the next day. >> Stock trading 100 times earnings, miss by a penny, fall 30%. Uh Ben, we got an email. Somebody was wondering your friend who got cut off at 18. How'd they turn out? >> Oh, good question. And it's funny. I looked it up because this is a friend that I kind of lost touch with. He moved away. So, he went to massage therapy school out of high school. I think he wanted to become a chiropractor, but probably couldn't afford the schooling because he did it on his own. So, he went to massage therapy school first, then decided to go to college much later on. I think he went down somewhere in North Carolina where he was. and I looked him up and now he's a chiropractor living in Texas. >> So, he made it turned out well. Good friend. >> Yeah. Yeah. Good question. All right. So, we had a bunch of work done in our house for like the last five or six weeks and it was a giant pain in the ass, but now that it's done, but they did our throw this at the dock. >> Yeah. Well, they put new wood flooring in and you know, there was a lot of sawdust. There was sawdust everywhere, right? But they were doing all the cutting and stuff in our garage and after they were done the guys would clean up and they they just leave all their tools in the garage and they did them in a nice neatly fashion over in the corner. You know, we put a spot for them. Um but they left their huge Milwaukee leaf blower thing because it would blow the sawdust out. Right. >> That's a good looking leaf blower. >> So in the years past, I use a leaf blower a lot just to the wood chips for my dog and the kids and I like to blow the garage out all the time. I like to keep a nice clean garage. And I got these cheapo this cheapo Black & Decker one from Amazon. It was probably 80 bucks. Yeah, I of course I was. But the thing stinks. It doesn't work very good. And I used they they had this Milwaukee blower and I used it a couple times cuz they left it there. And I just thought, "Oh my gosh, this thing is 10 times more powerful than mine." And so I went on Amazon and it was probably I don't know triple the price of my Black & Decker, but it works 10 times better. Sometimes it makes sense to pay up for quality, not be a cheap ass. >> That's a great looking leaf blower right there. >> It is amaz I mean, right? Look at that. It looks like it could power power a jet or something. It's amazing. >> All right, Ben, we've been in a in a bare market for TV shows. Although, >> thank you for the platonic wreck. >> Oh, you like that? >> Well, I fall asleep every night. Uh Robin Robin watches and she's giggling. By the way, me falling asleep has nothing to do with the quality of that show. >> Okay. I my bedtime has been getting earlier and earlier and earlier to an embarrassing level. I'm I've been sleeping at 9:00 the past couple of past couple of weeks. >> What time do you get up in the morning? Are you early riser now? >> Not really. 6:15 6:30. >> Okay. I >> I wake up to a bunch of text me. >> I wake up to a bunch of text messages >> and people probably why isn't he texting me back? It's like 9:15. Passed out. >> Blame it on the sun. Okay. So, what do we got coming? >> All right. So, so yeah. So, what I was saying is that shows uh have been in a bare market >> big time this summer. I I made the point on Twitter, this might have been the worst pop culture summer this century. No fantastic shows, no like groundbreaking movies, no huge sports moments. Like the last two months, literally nothing has happened in pop culture besides the royal wedding. >> Yeah, it was not a great summer for movies. I had fun, but it was definitely not great at all. Um >> there there wasn't one movie you go, "Oh, yes, classic >> weapons." All right. I can't put horror movies in the classic genre. That That's just me. >> If anybody watched Alien Earth, let me know how it is. I saw the first two episodes and I haven't uh picked it back up. Not that I didn't like it. I just haven't haven't watched it yet. Um >> didn't they like squeeze the juice dry on that yet? The alien stuff. >> I I didn't love the last one, Romulus, but I still It's one of my favorite favorite things. All right. Anyway, there's a new crime thriller from the mayor of Vtown. The HBO original series follows an FBI agent, Mark Ruffalo, on a mission to end a string of violent robberies led by an unassuming family man, Tom Pelfrey. I don't know who that is. It's called Task. And I can't wait. Who's Tom? >> Is he the guy from Ozark? I There's also a new Ethan Hawk show coming to Hulu. So, I'm >> Oh, was he the nephew? >> I don't know. >> He's the brother. >> He's Laur Lenny's brother, wasn't he? >> Yes. But more shows are coming. You know those those >> help is on the way is what we're saying. You know those articles that say like here's everything coming to these streaming networks this month because every month it changes. I love those articles. I read those all the and I come up with list watch that I watch that. All right. Uh Jack Reigns had this thing this morning on Young Money and it talked about how >> young people aren't going to Burning Man anymore. It's it's only older people and they say all the Bay Area Zoomers have exchanged alcohol and ecstasy for lifting heavy and 996 work schedules. So here's 996. I'd never heard it before. Um, so someone said, "The current vibe in San Francisco is for young people. No drinking, no drugs, 996. Work from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m. 6 days a week. Lift heavy, run far, marry early, track sleep, eat steak, and eggs. >> What is happening? I don't like this. >> The 996 thing is the one biggest one that throws me is just if that's your whole life. >> Wait, no. No drinking. No what else? >> Let's see. No drinking, no drugs. Track your sleep, eat protein. I just think the optimization thing can be taken way way too far. You still have to be a young person. Like I feel like these young people are going to totally regret not living life. >> This This feels Is this real? Is this real? I know. I'm sure this is happening in San Francisco. I believe that. >> I mean, that's the thing. Maybe San Francisco isn't real life and that's just it's a that's a place unto itself. But I do think young people, if they don't enjoy their lives, they're going to regret it someday when they have way more responsibilities. >> All right, let me ask you this, Ben. In the year 2025, how come we can't get good self-service? You know what I hear every time I'm on the phone or, god forbid, I try a video? Michael, Michael, Michael, you're breaking up. Michael, you're breaking up. And I'm like, I'm on the Cross and Parkway. I'm in New York City. >> I use Verizon. Why can't anybody hear me? >> I don't know. Is it the AirPods or is it the cell service? >> No, it's a cell service. >> Okay, that's a good question. >> I've been clear. >> It should be a thing. Like, you know how in the old horror movies you used to like your you would try to start your car and it and it would it wouldn't turn over. But that doesn't exist anymore cuz cars just start. >> By the way, turnover is a very old phrase. I was about to say that. I only learned what that meant when I started watching with closed captioning, >> right? Like you don't have to worry about that anymore. And that should be the thing with sell service now. Like that the whole you're breaking up should be a thing of the past. >> Come on. How am I breaking up? It's 2025. Speaking of quality, Ben, paying up for quality. I'm paying up for quality. Quality sucks. So, thank you to somebody who emailed me. >> You know, I saw this email exchange in our inbox, and I I wanted to I should have roasted you on it, but it was the most middle-aged thing I've ever seen. It was like this guy offering you socks, which socks you should get, and you writing him back and going, "Oh my gosh, these socks are amazing, and I'm gonna >> It was a whole exchange about socks." >> I immediately spent $300 on socks. Why? I have no more socks. I threw out I'm As I'm prepping for the move, I threw out all my old socks. And my socks I have Under Armour, Nike socks that are easily, I don't know, six years old. Like, there's no reason to be wearing socks that are six years old, right? >> Here's what I do. The thing I wouldn't I don't spend up on like the the really expensive socks because I feel like after two washes they don't feel expensive anymore. So it's new socks. So on Amazon I have a subscription every 6 months I get a brand new pack of socks. >> Send my mail. I throw the old ones out. I put the new ones in. New socks feel amazing. >> Anyway, I wore a pair of socks not like ankle socks. Socks that go up to your calf or whatever. Not super high, but with a pair of shoes that have typically or historically graded on the back of my ankle, guess what? Comfort, no blisters pay up for quality. >> All right. Well, that's good for future proof because there's a lot of walking that goes on there. >> Yeah. So, I feel very good. >> You got to bring your Jordans, I hope. >> Very I'm not bringing my Jordans. Very good about my new socks. Uh, what else? What else? What else? Um, all right. This is very random and it's happens very rarely, but nevertheless, it it always annoys me. Probably happens to me once every two months. You ever type and you look up and you've been in all caps for 30 seconds? >> Yeah. >> Is there is is there a way to just control Q uppercase select where you could just change it to lowerase? >> It would be easy if it auto corrected for you. Um how do you how weird you think Walter Bloomberg is shouting in his own head as he's typing because everything he types is is all uppercase. >> But is he I feel like he's he's pulling from someplace, right? He's not actually typing. Yeah, I know. He's not a real person. All right, so yesterday we were driving home. We tried to get one more day on the beach and then we had to drive home cuz my son had football practice. It was his first I'm I'm a very proud father because it was his first day they could hit each other and tackle football, hearing the crunch of the pads. >> He's not shy, right? >> No, he's not shy. But it was funny. He's It's third and fourth grade and he's like one of the only third graders on the team. And and I asked him, "How did it go?" He's like, "Oh, I I totally trucked this kid." I'm like, "Well, how about you?" He goes, "Oh, yeah. I got demolished. These guys were hitting me so hard and but he didn't I'm like, "Are you okay? You know, you didn't mind?" "No, it's fine. I got I got hit really hard. I get good." But so we had to leave the beach and we had to drive him back to practice. So we had to go through the Burger King drive-thru to get him some food before his practice. And we go into the Burger King drive-thru. There's a big van in front of us. And we pull up to pay and the van is in front of us waiting for their food. And the lady in the drive-through window goes, "I don't know if you want to pay for your food or not." We're like, "What do you mean?" She goes, "The van ahead of you got $130 worth of food. It's like nine value meals. It's going to take a very long time to make. So, you're going to sit here and wait forever. And we said, "Well, we're kind of in a time crunch. We have to get on the road." So, we just left. Like, don't you think her response should have been, "You know what? We're going to sneak your meal in real quick here, give it to you, and get let you get out of line instead of telling us." >> Yeah. >> Right. >> Yeah. >> Do the right thing. >> Thank you. Okay. >> Yeah. Um >> obviously, I wasn't going to wait for that. We did a ghost tour in Newport and I I don't know why in my head I thought it was like one of like these ghost walks where like you know it's scary and people pop out at you like a Halloween spook. >> What was it? Old cemeteries. >> It was just a girl telling stories about I don't know. I wasn't listening but it was nonsense. And she was like if you take pictures you might see like an orb or something like that. So like the boys were taking pictures like the whole time like oh I think I see somebody. Anyway, the point is this. There was three women on the tour. I'm going to guess they were mid to upper 20s, 27 to 30 years oldish. And they were taking it seriously. And they were like, "We better see something." And I wanted to like I was so confused. I was like, "What are you doing here? What are you actually doing?" It was so bizarre. >> But people will always fall for that. How many of those shows are there about ghost hunting? >> I guess they were otherwise normal people. Like they seem like very normal people, but they were seriously looking for ghosts. >> But there are people who who totally believe in that stuff, >> I guess. >> Okay. All right. Recommendations. I only got one this week. >> Okay. Go. >> Uh so we we rented Mission Impossible Final Reckoning finally. We saw the this the previous one in the theater. And here's my take as the biggest Tom Cruz fan there is. I tell my son all the time, he's the best action star of all time. Obviously, um, this movie didn't need to be made. Like, they could have ended it on a The last one was great. I mean, there was good stunts in this, but um, it kind of felt like a, you know, a a farewell tour, I guess, for Tom Cruz, even though he might make another one, I guess. I just the whole AI thing, being the bad guy, I feel like is going to get so overdone in the next 5 to 10 years. And that just doesn't interest me at all having AI, >> right? >> The story made no sense at all, right? Like it was hard to follow. I mean there I guess like it's the story lines are sort of besides the point. But like in this one it was so convoluted. I had no idea what was happening. >> It just it just to me felt like they kept extending the last movie when they could have just ended the movie easily at the end of the last one. It would have been a great sendoff. It like listen it was it was entertaining and the stunts he does obviously are amazing but it it totally unnecessary and I'm a Tom Cruz guy as you know. >> Yeah. agree. That's where I take. All right. Um I I'm sorry in advance. I'm going to be annoying about audiobooks. I just am not going to like try and convince you to listen, but I'm going to be talking about it what I've listened to because this is my podcast. Um in Rhode Island because I'm an early riser. My kids sleep forever. >> How late are we talking? >> I came back to the hotel. So I I don't know why I woke up at like 5:30. So by 5:45 I'm out. And I especially, you know, I like to walk when I'm on when I'm in new places. That's like my thing. So, I walked out the hotel at about 5:50, got a Starbucks, and I was just walking and I got back to the hotel at 8:40 and they were still sleeping. >> Wow. >> My point is I had a lovely morning. I'm walking for 3 hours listening to my audio book. I had a great time. And because I am listening on 1.8 times speed, what's great about now I have three different devices, Audible, Spotify, and Libby. Spotify, you get 15 hours a month. Libby are free books and Audible obviously is paid. So if Libby doesn't have something because you have to order it and if I've used up all my Spotify, then I will buy books on Audible. Uh so with 1.8 time speed, Tycoon for example, this is a giant book. I believe it's on my shelf. I never read it. It's 28 hours long, but at 1.8 time speed down to 15 hours. So guess what? I walked three hours on Saturday and Sunday, whatever day it was. I'm almost done with the book. >> See, you should be an Instagram influencer doing this. >> So now >> I live three days in every one day you just did. >> Yeah. I I 10x that [ __ ] You're living one day a week a a day. I live four days a day. Anyway, all of these books that I've been meaning to get to, the Power Broker, the Lyndon Johnson stuff. I >> It's true. Cuz some of those biographies, it just you look at it and you go, "Oh my god." >> You just say no. So there's an Eisenhower one that I want to read, a Truman one that that I've been meaning to read. Guess what? Those all would have waited until my retirement. I never would have gotten to these books ever. >> I've started probably like seven different biographies and made it through the first two chapters and just stopped them all. >> So, one of the books that I listened to and finished was a book called Tough Jews, which I guess popped up after I read the other one last week. And this was a book actually somebody else bought me this book, too. I never read it, never would read it, but it was great. It was a lot about like the early Jewish gangsters. And of course, there was a lot of overlap with the Italian gangsters in the mafia. Um, so the in the in the book they mentioned the movie Once Upon a Time in America and I said, "You know what? I've tried to fire that movie up before and I just I I watched I'm not watching. >> I don't even know what that is. What movie is that? I've never heard of it." >> So, Once Upon a Time in America, it's Sergio Leone. It's his last movie, matter of fact. It's 1984 and it is Once Upon a Time. Listen to this cast. Dairo, James Wood, Joe Peshy has a small role. Jennifer Connelly, she was like eight and she has a small role. Treat Williams. Who else is in here? Uh Danny Ielo, William Foresight, Bert Young. So the the main stars are Dairo and James Wood. >> I've never heard of this movie. >> James Woods. You never heard of Once Upon a Time in America? You've definitely seen the poster where it's like the kids with the Manhattan Bridge in the back in the background that it's like their 1920s. Okay, maybe I must have escaped me for some reason. >> Okay, well it's 3 hours and 47 minutes and it is it is a slog. I mean there's whole parts that feel like it took me like I don't know 5 days to watch but uh it felt like I watched a marathon. I felt like a sense of accomplishment at the end. >> It is good. >> Not worth watching. Oh, it is okay. >> No, it is good. Was it Is it worth it? Yeah, probably not. I mean 3 47 minutes. My god. What else? What else? What else? Uh all right. I believe that's it. Oh, wait. One one last thing. There's a documentary on Netflix called Unknown Number: The High School Catfish. Is this on your radar? >> My wife watches all these. I don't really watch this stuff. >> Ask Ask her about this one. >> Okay. >> The reveal. I won't spoil anything. Is one of the craziest things I've ever seen. It is so mind-bending. I can't stop thinking about it. >> Is this more than one one episode? >> No, it's No, it's like an hour. >> Okay. Just It's one thing. >> It's one thing. >> All right. >> Um anyway. All right. All right, I think we're done. This This felt like uh this felt like a long week. A great week. I had a great time. Got Sally's Pizza on the way home. The New Haven, Connecticut Pizza. Great stuff. >> So, you're saying that you're saying that you've you have another time hack. You >> cut your Audible time in half, but by going on vacation, you extended time, made time feel longer to you. >> Yeah, it was time dilation. Totally. >> Okay. Uh come say hi to us at Future Proof. >> Plus that and I'm drinking onion juice with garlic cloves. Come on. Gumlum. >> Yeah. I hope you have some gum. Chase it with the gum. Um, come say hi to us at Future Proof. We'll be around. Come to Live Animal Spirits. It'll be fun. See you then. And next week will be our live show. You'll be able to hear, right? >> Yeah. Animals compoundnews.com. Thank you for listening. We'll see you next time. [Music]