A Tipping Point? US Treasurys Are No Longer The 'Reserve Asset Of Choice' | David Hay

Summary

• Market Outlook: David Hay discusses a potential tipping point where US Treasuries are no longer the reserve asset of choice for central banks, with gold gaining prominence.
• Investment Strategy: Hay advises a cautious approach, suggesting investors gradually sell into the current market rally to build cash reserves due to unprecedented market conditions.
• Currency Dynamics: The discussion highlights a potential long-term bear market for the US dollar and suggests the yen as an undervalued opportunity, predicting a significant revaluation of the dollar downward.
• Economic Concerns: Hay expresses concern over the US's fiscal condition, noting that the federal deficit could double in a recession, exacerbating the current economic challenges.
• AI and Market Valuation: The conversation touches on the potential overvaluation of AI stocks, warning that a realization of lower-than-expected profits could lead to a broader market correction.
• Stablecoins and Treasury Demand: The role of stablecoins in potentially supporting US Treasury demand is discussed, with the government possibly leveraging them to manage borrowing costs.
• Credit Market Risks: Rising delinquencies in credit cards and auto loans are highlighted as alarming, with concerns about potential defaults in the private credit market.
• Investment Opportunities: Despite market risks, Hay identifies energy and certain industrial sectors as potential areas for investment, given their critical role in the global economy.

Transcript

All right, and we should be live. Welcome to Thoughtful Money. I'm Thoughtful Money founder and your host, Adam Tagert. Welcome you here for one of our Wednesday live streams. Uh this time it is with David Haye returning with his monthly macro and markets outlook. David, how you doing? >> Good, Adam. How about yourself? >> Doing tax, >> you know, David, >> pardon me. California tax police are not hot on your trail now that you're back in the state briefly. Oh, >> hopefully not. Hopefully not. Um, yeah, David, folks, folks, David's referring obviously to my uh my move to Nevada. Um, yeah, hopefully I've got nothing to do with the California tax police from here or ever, David. And hopefully they're not listening. Uh, but if you are, folks, nothing to see. Um, all right. Well, look, lots to talk about this month. Um, a lot going on. And David, as usual, has prepared an excellent slide deck for us, which I'll get to in just a second. Um, and just as a heads up, folks, as we did last time, um, we will be doing an outlook, David's outlook for the the current landscape and the month ahead. Uh, and then, uh, we'll end uh, and then David and I will record, um, sort of a retroactive of the past couple weeks of some of the most meaningful, uh, interviews that have happened on Thoughtful Money that have caught each of our attentions. And that second video will be available to um members of this YouTube channel uh and premium subscribers to the thoughtful money substack. Um so just a reminder again as we did last time, we're going to do the part one first which will be available to everybody and then we'll uh hop off and we'll we'll record the part two which will be available just to those audiences. Um but David, a lot going on here. And look, maybe we can get pretty much straight to your slides, but there was a key slide in there that I made the theme for this discussion, which is that um it seems that we are at a tipping point here where um US treasuries uh are no longer the reserve asset of choice. Um and that potentially has a lot of ramifications and clearly it's got one for gold. So, um I'm sure we'll get to that quickly, but um anything you want to say before I bring the slide deck up? >> Well, just to reinforce what you said, I did a webinar yesterday with my great friend Grant Williams, and that was one of the hot topics that he and I we both agreed with. So, there wasn't any uh you know, was not an opinion exchange, but the idea that the dollar is very much the world's reserve currency. So, that hasn't changed. But what has changed is US treasuries are no longer the reserve asset of choice among central banks, global central banks. And that's profoundly important. And I think that's the main reason that we're seeing gold knocking on the door of 4,000. >> Okay. And I I I only had a moment to slip through your slide, so don't know if this chart's in there, but I have seen a slide recently that shows percent of of assets held by central banks. and we have just crossed where where gold as a percentage of central bank balance sheets has just poked above treasuries which had been in decline. So to your point, yeah, dollar is still the world reserve currency, but in terms of the dominant asset on central bank balance sheets, it seems gold has now just nudged out to treasury, which isn't the first time in history that's happened, but it's the first time in a long time. Um, all right. Well, why don't we without further ado get to your slides here, David. Um, so you I'll drive for you. You just tell me when you want me to advance. >> I like this. It's kind of like driving Miss Daisy. >> Driving Mr. Haye, Dr. Hay. >> All right. Well, why don't we why don't we start here with your uber bullish zeitgeist quote? >> Sure. Yeah. Um, are you moving it because I'm it's not moving on my end, but I can stay up with you. >> Okay. here on slide two. >> All right. And this is a quote from Andrew Tyler JP Morgan, which I just thought was a great summation of of this attitude that the stocks can really only go up unless there's an asteroid that hits the Earth. And I think when you when you get to that kind of a scenario, you know that you're just in, you know, absolutely super rarified air when it comes to a bull market almost without precedence. In fact, I'm going to make the case with some of these that it is without precedent. That it really has taken out the biggest equity bubble the US market's ever seen, which wasn't 1929. It was the late 90s tech bubble. So, the basic point here is that so that's and that doesn't mean it's going to end. I mean that's uh and I guess you know Adam just as a this is a completely off the cuff line but one that I think I've conveyed to you before and I think is so important when you do these kinds of events where there's a tendency for us to are on screen and you know we've been doing this for a long time I guess 46 years in the financial industry but I haven't ever seen a set of circumstances like this so I my outlook my you know my anticipations if you will not forecast but anticipations are very cloudy and should be taken with Not just a pinch of salt salt, but a whole shaker of salt. >> Okay. And let me let me just quickly ask you about that, David. Um, so, uh, this may be the greatest market distortion of your career is sort of what I hear you saying. >> It is. >> Um, >> how how concerned are you about that? like when it comes to a losing sleep over the markets perspective um are you not getting any sleep given these concerns or is this hey you know yeah it's just more distorted than I've seen in my career but for reasons X Y or Z I'm not afraid of a massive calamity ensuing as a result >> I'm not afraid from a financial standpoint partially because I'm personally very heavily hedged and for the firm that I co-founded and I'm still the second largest shareholder in Evergreen uh they're very I think very appropriately positioned and one of the points that I've tried to make I know I've discussed this with you in in prior podcasts is it's I've been selectively bullish and selectively bearish and there were a lot of areas as you know I write Making a Monday that goes out every Monday except on if it's Memorial Day or Labor Day it goes out on a Tuesday but the there's always buy ideas every single week some are bonds but usually they're equities there's been a lot of places to be even if you've been kind of a bubble denier as I have been and I mean we're going to talk about the gold stocks later but it was just in the spring that you couldn't get people to touch those with a barge pole >> and obviously they've had an amazing resurgence. Uh well I don't want to get too far ahead of this but uh I'm not conserned from that standpoint. What I'm concerned about is just, you know, this idea we're in a forth turning and that it could turn violent within the United States. In fact, I think it already is. I mean, you just look at these announcements of, you know, the National Guard being sent into uh blue cities almost exclusively. But there it just seems like this political divide that has been so acute and uh and you know, very disrespectful. I mean, it's so different than back in the 40s when Reagan and Tip O'Neal were able to work together. So, I what I worry is that this this this societal division is now on the precipice of be becoming violent, >> even more violent than it has. Yeah, I would say >> you've been so so >> you've been you've been so articulate describing the K-shaped recovery and maybe even out eye recovery and and so it's this it's getting worse this wealth division uh you know the prosperity for a few just getting by hand mouth for many it's just not healthy and that's what really worries me. >> Okay. Uh and just to let folks know >> Yeah. for for th for those of you who who know about the fourth turning and and that whole framework um trust me I have been reaching out to Neil how one of the um co-developers of that theory uh the sole living co-developer of that theory to get him back on the program to really give us an update on where things are in the fourth turning as you can imagine Neil's schedule is just you know on fire right now because everything he's been talking about it really seems to be now unfolding in real time around us I did just lock Neil in for an interview. It's going to be, I think, the first week in January. So, I know we all wish it were sooner, but I want to let you know that indeed it is coming. And that was as as soon as we could find time on Neil's schedule for it. Um, all right, David. Look, um, I I I I'll let you just run the slides here, but um, yeah, I don't know if that makes me feel any better that you're you're you're not super worried from a markets perspective. You're more worried about a societal perspective. But I guess last question on markets and I'll let you run. Do you have a worry that it does seem to to your point you were saying like hey there there's still places to be long even if you're you don't want to get on the train of these hypervalued you know assets but are you worried that kind of all correlations are now approaching one and so that if there is a market downturn everything may go down with it >> yeah I think that's fair to say you know Buffett is often quipped that in a crisis the only thing that goes up is correlations are correlations M >> I guess is and it's uh it's true and so just because you own gold doesn't mean you're not going to take a spanking in a big riskoff period. I think you probably will and of course the more extended gold is or particularly the gold miners you know 130% for the year and basically that's all come since the spring >> right >> so it's a you could have one heck of a shakeout even in things that are in a secular uptrend. So yes, I think and that's why what I'm advising is to gradually methodically sell into this rally even with the gold miners and just you know be willing to let that accumulate into cash. Earlier there were you know lots of rotation opportunities you know whether it was platinum or palladium or the miners thereof or uranium when uranium got spanked earlier this year not so much. I mean that's I guess part of the I guess the higher heightened anxiety that I have is that a lot of these what had been overlooked assets have been on fire in many cases. So there aren't as many places now if you want to go someplace where I think you're not going to get hurt falling out of the basement window is with energy >> which I mean it's just so odd to be a bull on gold as I have been for so long and a bull on energy which I've also been for a long time and have them in such you know radically different places but uh I mean energy is now 3% of the S&P and what is more critical to the functioning of the global economy and the the flourishing of humanity than energy Now, obviously, uranium is is finally getting the the positive vibes it should. I think it's still got a lot further to go. But you look at something like natural gas or even more amazing, Adam, is Canadian natural gas. Canadian natural gas is negative, you know, in the futures market because they don't have enough takeaway capacity. But even, you know, the longer term pricing is more like a dollar per million BTUs. It's just unbelievable. It's like a dollar a gallon of gas. But my basic point is that there aren't as many attractive areas as there were a few months ago. So that does make me more on edge. >> Okay. All right. Well, look, let's get to the bulk of your slides here. Um folks, if there is time um and I'll try to not keep interrupting Dave too much despite how uh how many opportunities he gives me to want to add on to what he says because he's so brilliant. Uh, but if there is time left over in the hour, we will take questions from the audience. And I already see folks uh starting to ask questions here in the live chat. All right, Dave. So, I'm going to advance the slide here to slide three. I don't know if you're seeing that same update with me, but the screen is on. >> Yeah. Record number of fund managers say stocks are overvalued. >> I thought this was pretty hysterical. And then you flip down below and that they've doubled their allocation to stocks in the last month. And not that it's particularly out of bounds with where it normally is, but still doubling in a month. It's just it's a little bit on the comical side. So, we don't need to spend too much time on that one. Then we go to Luke >> Groman. Sorry to interrupt. I promised I wouldn't. I'll shut up after this, but do you remember the old Monty Python uh skit with Mr. Creassote? the hugely obese guy who just keeps eating food at the table and and the the waiter comes with a wafer thin mint and then he eventually explodes because of you know the mint is the one thing but it seems like we have a Mr. Creass soap market where it's just saying I can't possibly eat another bite and yet it still just keeps cramming risk down its gullet. >> That's a good one. I hadn't heard that one. I see a stall the straw that breaks the candles back and there's going to be a straw or a mint chocolate mint at some point >> at some point. But it seems like the gluttony is just continuing and even acknowledging, hey, there's there's way too much risk in this market. There still seem to be buying exposure handover fist. >> Absolutely. But I think this next one from Luke is is a one to for the Uber bulls to keep in mind is that foreigners do own trillions. I think it's something like 7 trillion 17 trillion of US assets between bonds and equities and they're not too thrilled with the way things are trending and you know particularly realizing that the dollar is likely in a secular or long-term bare market sorry bare market and the reason that matters I mean if you're an international investor and the S&P is up 13% this year you're really almost flat given the decline of the dollar >> so it is a big deal and then there's There's also just the the discomfort with US arbitrary policies, some good, some not so good. So there is this chance of a capital flight out of US markets which uh you know you already talked about that with treasuries. You don't have that foreign bid certainly not from central banks but really not from institutions, non-governmental institutions. It's it's a very different world out there. I think you had Stephanie Ponboy on here recently and she was saying, "Look, the way you've invested for the last 40 years is not the way you want to be investing today." Now, there certainly are vestages of it that are continuing to work, particularly large cap tech, but even there, I think there's signs that that uh you know, we're starting maybe not hitting the wall, but approaching the wall. And I just think that's something that really all investors need to keep in mind is that the past is not prologue at this point. Mhm. >> My view, >> this is I think the chart you were talking about. If we go to number five, >> we're there. >> So the what's happening with treasuries versus gold among central banks and it used to be that they had this huge amount of treasuries and very little gold and in fact the gold was going down. was at Mvin King for the Bank of England back in around 2000 that sold all of the Bank of England's gold and he basically bottom ticked it and now of course they're going the other way and the Treasury holdings are coming down. What's really not emphasized enough by this visual you'd have to have another chart which I actually ran with Grant yesterday showing what's happened to total US debt outstanding. And of course it's just a hockey stick. It's just gone straight up. So that makes this divergence between what central banks are doing which is selling not buying. So when the government needs as much financing as it can get and their former big customers are now saying had enough uh that's a real problem. So, it's really falling upon domestic entities to be buying this $2 trillion of issuance to fund our federal deficits, which is about what they're running. And despite Doge, they're running what looks to be a record high this this fiscal year that just ended yesterday. And um it's it's just like I mean to have 7% deficits during a decent economy and we're not at least an official war is just shocking. And I think that's going to be the ultimate problem. And related to that, I think what's going to be the the trigger and perhaps the pin prick for the equity is the bond market. And we've uh we've talked about that a fair amount, but there is definite signs, particularly in the UK, you know, you're probably aware, Adam, the interest rates on long British government bonds are higher now than they were [Music] the budget fee is very unusual. >> Yes. Uh so David, let me ask you this. Um no, you know, nobody knows with any huge certainty whether there's a recession ahead or not uh next year. But assume for a moment, Dave, that there is. And let's let's just call it a garden variety recession. You know, we don't we don't have to go into another great recession. But how high even if we have a garden variety recession, how high do you think the deficit could go as a >> I think it could double. And that's a such a huge point and and I this is why I struggle with being attracted to long bonds because as you know for most of my career I was a bond bull really up until the summer of 2020 when the 10-year Treasury got down around half a percent. And there have been a few times over the prior four years where econom is overheating and I got bearish on bonds temporarily. But but my big pivot was in the summer of 20 and that's of course we were doing all the MMT stuff, modern monetary theory, money printing money, you know, direct uh stimulus to taxpayers and it just struck me as a completely inflationary setup which it turned out to be. >> But usually where I would really get bullish was when the yield curve would invert. bullish on long bonds and which is odd. I mean, when you have short-term rates higher than long-term rates, I remember people saying, well, why would you want to buy a longer term bond at a lower yield than a short-term bond and the point is well, you want to lock in that yield longer term when you get an inverted yield curve, which is a has been a consistent predictor of a recession. So, you you go into recession after the monetary policy gets too tight. As people say, the expansionists don't die of old age, they get murdered, the Fed's off in the per. Uh but this time I I think there's the sequence is going to be different. I think you're going to get this knee-jerk rally to weaker economic data. And then as you start looking at these deficits exploding as revenues decline and support payments increase, that's when I think you get the next upgrade. I don't think it's ever happened before in the United States, but it happen has happened a lot in emerging markets. And this is kind of falling under the thesis uh that Luke Roman has been the number one proponent of is that we are in a period where some of these developed countries are now taking on emerging market characteristics. >> And we're already seeing that, Adam, as you're aware. I mean, the Fed has cut now what a 100 basis points from a little over a year ago. And yet long-term yields are higher. >> Yeah. >> That's telling us something's not right. >> Yeah. It's interesting. the 10 year really hasn't budged since the Fed cut. >> It's actually gone up just a little bit in yield. I mean, it's bouncing around. You can see my point or my, you know, my belief is that as we get weak economic data, you get a rally in the bond market. So, yields come down, prices go up at the longer end, but they don't last. They they're fleeting. >> Yep. Now, maybe if you get really, really bad economic data, which is a possibility, you're going to get a more durable rally, but I still think at some point that rally is going to reverse and swing back the other way kind of violently. >> Okay, thank you for letting me take you on that side journey, but yeah, get back to the slides. So this is basically just reiterating what you said earlier that that we both agree with and Grant Williams totally agrees with that US Treasury is no longer the place where central banks, global central banks want to put their money. So it's clearly gold. Uh so this is I think a very important point that Luke is making and I'm obviously a huge fan of Luke Roman's work that we have to have a massive revaluation of the dollar downward for us to be competitive with China and other Asian countries primarily. and that uh you we've seen the dollar starting to crack. You know, based on my whole approach, what you're aware of, the three-year resistance and three-year support are critical. So, the dollar has taken out threeear support. So, that to me tells me we're in a major bare market for the dollar and yet it's still very overvalued. So, that's a that's it's almost like shorting a stock that's breaking, you know, threeear support, but it's still extremely overvalued. In my experience, those are the best shorts for whatever it's worth. Uh, and that's just what I was saying here that if you look on a purchasing power basis, it's still really pricey. The one that where it's so unbelievably out of balance is with the yen. And that's why I have such a yen for the yen. He's a very bad pun. And frankly, I've got the Trump admin on my side. They wanted to get it down the dollar down a lot, particularly versus the yen. And if you look back to what happened in the 1980s when the Plaza court happened, the dollar was absolutely annihilated against uh the yen. So if we go to the next slide nine, we'll see this. So this is back in the kind of the mid 80 period is the mid 80s and how so that's indicating the dollar is crashing versus the yen. Then we can see on the far right how the dollar has been in this really powerful bull market versus the yen since well basically for the last 12 years. But it does look like it's topping out on that chart. And I am I think if you're looking for a place to go to make money and also be in a one of the few areas that probably would go up in a in a intense riskoff period, I think that's the yen. That's been its history certainly lately. And if we look at this, this is another reason why I think it's hard to believe that the dollar is going to continue to be the powerhouse versus other currencies. And again, this is not to say it's going to lose its reserve currency status. I don't think it will anytime soon. maybe eventually, but we we are a big the world's largest debtor country down and we continue to run, you know, our twin deficits. So roughly a trillion dollars of trade deficits, two trillion of fiscal deficits. So again, I just say buy the yen and you can do it very easily if you're well, I don't know how to do that. I don't want to buy futures, but you can buy the FXY, which is the yen ETF. And it's been kind of stuck here, you know, recently in the 150ish, you know, maybe 140s to 150s, but at some point I think that's going to have a major rise in value. But obviously, time will tell. Any I don't know whether you have I don't really hear that much among your guests that I really don't hear anybody else saying buy the yen. But uh maybe that's a good thing. Maybe that's it's that contrarian. Yeah, I I have not heard that certainly of late. Um I am just last night was going back and forth with u your uh former and and and again to be soon uh colleague uh Louie uh Vincent Gav. So I imagine when he comes on if things haven't changed he may be echoing the same sentiment. >> He definitely agrees. He definitely I mean he's bearish on the dollar but I I know he thinks the yen is is just stupid cheap. Yeah, he's my for sure. >> Okay. >> Okay. So, let's talk. Can we talk stable coins in EUR dollar market? We touched on this last time and since then I think there's become even more evidence, this is slide 11, that stable coins are becoming a very critical part of the government's funding strategy. And actually, that was a major topic that Grant and I talked about yesterday. And he agrees. He thinks that it's a very clever move. He thinks it's going to have its own negative consequences. But he really didn't have much opinion. And I know you said you were going to check on this and I think probably Jeff Snyder is the guy to ask. You know, what does he think about stable coins potentially sucking trillions of dollars back to America from Europe? And it's something like 15 trillion dollars of of so-called eur euro dollars. And as I I understand it and Grant basically confirmed this where the genesis of those that big massive year dollar pool of capital started in the 1970s during the oil crisis and that was you remember the petro dollars. So as these dollars were building up, particularly in the Gulf countries from their tremendous windfall of oil prices, I went up by a factor of 10 back then, they put that money into treasuries, but they did it in the Euro dollar market. And so that Euro dollar market is now very significant. And I guess there is Bessant's made comments, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant, that he doesn't like the fact that it's kind of an implicit guarantee of the US government that there wouldn't be any kind of a crisis in the Euro dollar market. They don't like that. And plus, it serves their purpose. I mean, if they're looking for a way to finance these massive deficits and they've got to be. I mean, it's clear that they're, you know, they're lifting up every rock to try to come up with the money. So this would be a way to do it in a you know biggly way to use one of uh President Trump's favorite terms. So you know look at Tether. Tether is as I think a lot of your folks know is the number one issuer of stable coins. They're now trying to get a $500 billion valuation because right now they're a money machine where they because they don't pay any interest on stable coins. So they're holding uh let's say I think they're 150 million now of of treasuries. Uh they get that's more than that. I'm sorry I it's 150 billion of treasuries. So they're getting about a 4% yield on that. So what is that $6 billion of uh of income with very little expenses. It's got a handful of employees. So they're absolutely crushing it right now which is why they're, you know, saying that they can get a $500 billion valuation. Uh, but they still haven't provided an audit. I went to Gemini, Google Gemini to verify that that's still the case and it they do these attestations, but they've never done an actual audit. >> Can I interrupt? Go right ahead. >> Why is it so hard to do an audit? I mean, wouldn't it just be like showing them a brokerage statement? Hey, here's 150 billion of treasures we own. I mean, h how how hard would that be? >> Yeah, exactly. Well, I think it's not as simple because I think there's some history involved here where you know for so many years they weren't earning anything on the Treasury. So they really it was not that positive spread. So they were doing a number of aggressive things I believe but nobody knows because they wouldn't come up with the information but I mean they weren't getting a yield. So they had to either buy longer term bonds or they had to buy you know equities or or something to get a higher return you know during that basically zero interest rate period. uh but now they're they've kind of fallen ass backwards into this just tremendous windfall and I believe as we know and I talked about before that Bessant eventually wants to issue uh government stable coins and just disintermediate the tethers of the world I think circles the second largest holder why shouldn't they I mean what's what purpose really does tether serve it just creates frankly an added level of complexity and risk especially when they won't provide an audit so their business model right now is you crushing it but eventually I think they're going to get crushed That's just my view. >> Okay. And let me ask a a plumbing question here. And and forgive me if this sounds naive, but I'm guessing if if I'm not fully understanding it, maybe some of the viewers aren't either. Um, so if I heard you correctly, you said that you think stable coins will basically kind of hoover treasuries out of the Euro dollar market. Basically, bring them out of the Euro dollar market into the US. Correct? You're nodding. Do I have that right? That's what I I believe they want to do. Okay. Whether they can is another story. >> Yeah. So, we we want we the government is excited for stable coins because it's looking for additional buyers of treasuries because we want to keep yields down. Um so, these stable coins then aren't necessarily buying um new issuance of treasuries, right? If they're buying if they're buying the the a good chunk of the 15 trillion that's in the Euro dollar market, those are existing treasuries. So is the theory Tether is buying existing treasuries from the Euro dollar market, therefore freeing up capacity for the Euro dollar market to buy new treasuries as the government rolls over its debt. I'm just trying to think how how does this help as the government >> I don't think so this point. I mean again I think that's the goal. I think I don't think that's happening at this point. The goal is to get money to move, capital to move from Europe to the US in the form of stable coins, whoever the issuer is. And then that money coming over, which probably is in treasuries, gets recycled into uh treasuries that are now within, you know, our borders. So >> new issuance that capital comes into >> I guess the advantage here here's the key. Yeah, but the key advant first of all they're not buying Tether doesn't buy long-term treasuries or at least they shouldn't and I don't think they they need they don't need to when you're getting 4% on T bills or close to it. >> So they're that's really what stable coins are doing right now is just simply buying short-term T bills and that the question is will that money get pulled over from Europe? I think they're going to probably have to do some kind of a policy change uh to basically say look if you're over there with you know you're not getting any kind of a US guarantee government guarantee now of course they can put the money in treasuries and and I guess you know kind of accomplish the same thing but the advantage to the government by going into the stable coins is those stable coins don't yield anything whereas if somebody's got money in a Euro dollar treasury they're getting that 4% % yield. So they're and that's why I think they have to kind of put the fear of God and I'm not sure exactly how they're going to do it into that Euro dollar market. That's why I really would like to hear the opinion of a real expert because I'm not. The Euro dollar market has always been a a big mystery to me. But it does seem like there is a real uh a real moment of reckoning coming up here for it. And I think Jeff Snider would say that if you take if the if you destabilize the Euro dollar market, you're going to have serious reverberations around the world. But don't ask me to explain it. >> Yeah. And let me ask you this, David, and maybe it's too early to tell. Is this striking you like a like a stroke of genius? Oh my goodness. These stable coins are going to help uh the um the administration put the camel through the eye of the needle. and uh it's a it's a going to be a a really brilliant way to reduce government borrowing costs at a time where borrowing costs have been rising. Um or does it feel more like a Hail Mary? Like, hey, we're kind of drowning here. There's a branch. I'm going to grab it. Don't know what's going to happen, but I got nothing better to do. >> Yeah, maybe it's blow maybe a bit of both. Maybe it's the Doug Fluty moment. You know, his famous Hail Mary pass back in the early 80s. Uh, I mean, I think it's both daring, risky, and brilliant are all three of those. Uh, but to really make it work for the government, that's where I think they have to disintermediate. And they're they're really just doing this as an interim step. But another part of it is that, you know, when all that money, you know, assuming it does go into stable coins, what happens to it next? And frankly, if you look historically, the the multiplier uh toward Bitcoin from stable coins is very high. And I think Luke Grman has assumed even if you bring it down to five to six times. So in other words, if a trillion dollars goes into stable coins into Tether, uh five goes into Bitcoin or you know the other maybe some of Ethereum, but Bitcoin's the 800 pound gorilla. And so that's also I think part of this and and perhaps why the US is is building you know they've been kind of vocal about doing some kind of a Bitcoin reserve and perhaps that's been going on on a stealth basis. None of us know that. That's just kind of speculation. So in other words what you know it could be that the government's trying to get gold up a lot you know as part of this whole revaluation using that to then either collateralize or to retire treasuries and doing the same thing with Bitcoin. So it could be a pretty powerful one-two punch. to basically answer your question, I think it's a very clever move. You know, it's it's obviously born out of desperation because of the terrible fiscal condition we're in, but you know, the US has got tremendous advantages and this is just one of them. Uh, you know, I will say I I it continues to baffle me why investors in Bitcoin and crypto feel like they have to go through Tether as opposed to just, you know, doing it through Schwab. I don't really get that, but they do. If somehow that goes away, then you know, maybe this gambit fails. >> Okay. Um, you know, I I saw a quote the other day from the head of the SEC saying crypto is its number one priority right now? Um, is that because of the stable coin opportunity, do you think, or is that because of other crypto potential advantages? Well, I would say it's probably in no small part due to administrative pressure because this administration is obviously very pro- crypto. Uh, but I think there's also the element where even the SEC, which has become, you know, pretty toothless, uh, you know, and no dentures in sight. But even in their case, they're starting to rail against some of these, uh, you know, really egregious situations. this uh what was this company that a Chinese company that it had I think I've got that coming up here where it had a market cap of 235 million a few weeks ago then it hit 15 billion >> and of course people were you know charging into it and now is that because of crash it's actually been sus >> pardon me >> yes yes yes so it's another one of these companies that said we're going to be a Bitcoin treasury company they have I think 20 employees three million of revenue it's just I mean the this you There is an old saying that in these kinds of bubble environments, you get the bezels, you know, these these embezzlement events and they start proliferating. And you get enough of them and people finally say, well, I don't know if I really trust these markets anymore. >> And these moonshots that we're, you know, so accustomed to, instead of going up, they go down. And that's to me where I think you're starting to see that. I mean, I look look at I've got a comment on Doge coming up, but Doge is which is Musk's favorite altcoin to put it politely, uh, has has been cut in half this year in the midst of this, you know, frenetic crypto market. That's quite a divergence, >> right? Um, all right. Well, look, I know we still have a bunch of slides to get through and we're beginning to run out of time. real quick. >> I I wanna I want to ask my question again, which is um and you may not know the answer, um Dave, but >> you probably don't, but I'm just asking you to guess here. Um how much of the administration's hunger for accelerating crypto at large is for all the other potential things that could be done with it versus, hey, we need to get this stable coin thing to happen because we need it to stop it. you know, we we need that its help in getting borrowing costs down. >> Well, one, a cynic could say, sure, there's another key objective, which is to enrich the Trump family, but that's a little cynical. >> Yeah. >> But I mean, there's it's a multiffactorial situation. There's there's a number of reasons, but you know, I I think ultimately that financing the government has become job one. Everything else is subordinate to that. Okay, that that's what I was figuring, but I just wanted to make sure I wasn't >> such a dire problem. >> Yeah. Okay. Um, by the way, real quick, Kieran here, >> ask somebody that knows more about crypto than I do, which is very little. The whole area still strikes me as >> well, thanks for giving the opportunity to mention this then. So, folks, we're going to have Lynn Alden, one of the top experts on Bitcoin, presenting at our upcoming conference on October 18th, and she is just going to be talking about Bitcoin and crypto. So, I will definitely ask that question to her there. Then, um Kieran Okconor here asks, "Hey, I'm late to this thing." >> Oh, sorry, not any good. Sorry, that's the wrong one. Um it was Jack B. I meant to bring this up. Is this live? Uh yes, this is live, Jack, while we're recording it uh live here with Dave in the live stream. So, um hopefully you'll have a time to at least squeeze in a couple questions here at the end. Kieran, uh I hope it's been good so far. Um all right, so Dave, let's move on to your next slides here. Um, uh, >> okay. 13 was really just, we already talked about it, so we can kind of skip over this whole thing to speed things up. But, uh, one thing that I did email you on here, uh, a month or so ago was one of your guests that was talking about how, uh, you know, how great it is that you can now buy Bitcoin on 80% margin and it can be done on a fractionalized basis. So, there's entities like coin, Coinbase, which will make those loans and you don't have to buy, you could buy a tenth of a coin, whatever. Uh, and it's it's it's got this auto just like any other margin situation. If the price starts to fall, they automatically sell whatever portion they need to sell to bring you back in compliance with the margin requirement. To me, that just creates the potential for a a very uh intense cascade effect on the downside. >> And I mean, I get the bull the bull story on Bitcoin, but I think it's still very much of a riskoff asset. And until we go through another cathartic riskoff period to see how it holds up, I think it's not going to go down 70 or 80%, but I think it'll go down 50% this next time. >> Sorry. You mean Bitcoin is a risk on asset, correct? >> It's a risk, sorry, it's a risk-on asset, but what I think I was trying to say in the next riskoff period phase, it it probably is going to get hammered, especially with all this leverage that's involved. But yeah, thanks for correcting that. >> Yeah. >> Okay, we can go to 15 here. Uh this is interesting because let's let's be fair. This is the NASDAQ crypto index and this is despite Dogecoin getting cut in half. This index is still very much in an uptrend. Probably driven heavily by Bitcoin and Ethereum. I imagine they're the most uh heavily weighted in that index. So now anything else you want to talk about in crypto with a complete non-expert which would be me. >> No, no, no, no. Let's move on because there's >> Okay. So this is an area that's more my will. We've touched on this a little bit, but the idea of the inflation, you know, what's going to happen to inflation? And as I think you pointed out, you get more disagreement on this than anything else among your guests, right? >> That's very true. >> Still about 50/50. >> And then, you know, probably the economy is right up there in terms of it's just there's so many crossurrens. There's so much conflicting data. So, you can kind of spin whatever narrative you want to spin. But uh it's still I mean the fact of the matter it's still about 3%. Right? And that's using the official statistics which I really believe are uh too flattering. I think it's running hotter than that. But I do see convincing arguments that with rents now falling that this owner's equivalent rent which has been pushing the CPI up on a belated basis. There's the lag factor in there. Your classic lag has really been at work with that. uh that it's now starting to go down >> and that's going to be a cooling force on inflation, but of course there's a lot of other ones going the other way. >> Yeah. And let me not Dave on the day we're talking um GDP now, I just checked it is at uh projecting a a Q3 uh GDP growth of 3.9%. So that's that's hotter than we've we've seen of late and even hotter than the I think 3.8 8 that they adjusted Q2 up to. Um, but at the same time, we just have the ADP numbers today and they contracted. Right. So, there there are a lot of these crossurrens right now. It's an interesting time. >> Exactly. That's my point is that it's it's so confusing and you can just, you know, glom on to whatever data point backs up your your thesis. In my case, my thesis is I I don't know. I just I continue to be perplexed. But we're going to see some things that I think are questioning the robust official government data and this is >> agree this is really you know related to >> go ahead. >> Sorry I didn't know if you can see it but I just put up on the screen a comment here from Johnny said we're in a risk environment right now being a combination of on and off. >> I like it. >> Yeah >> that fits the So we go to slide 18. this it gets to where we're really getting divergence in these various inflation components and you know it's I think recently the official CPI was indicating very little medical care inflation even deflation and it's like really how does that jive with the real world because you probably just saw that uh that news article that came out a couple weeks ago that companies are facing 9 to 10% increases in their cost of of medical care you know insurance for their employees >> so it's but you know there's certain parts where you can say yeah they're actually you know it's very controlled and so it depends on I guess kind of your mix of expenditures how how much you agree with the government statistics but this is where we get into the economy and so this is from Daniel D Martino Booth and she's been as you know very much in this the recession already camp not just coming but already but she's even noting that there is this growth pickup that your latest GDP now would only reinforce so it's u it is very very confusing there's no No question about it. But you know as you look at other things like retail sales you know so this is store sales which have been you know quite sluggish leisure and hospitality and we know that Las Vegas which is typically a very good leading barometer of the economy is quite soft like down 8% the most recent I saw year-over-year but there's another one here that well this is actually from the journal just this week and I don't you ever have people talk about go versus GDP gross output because I've seen this a lot from not so much recently from David Rosenberg that gross output is like twice the size of GDP because it includes the entire supply chain >> and that's showing a much more sluggish much less robust picture right now and so uh that's why this article from the journal said that there is a warning below you know these robust GDP numbers >> numbers then this is right up your alley here where we're starting to see these delinquencies go up and for me when I look at a chart like this I Because just like with stocks, when they're breaking above multi-year resistance, that's telling us something big is happening. And most of the well, credit cards and autos for sure are the the mortgage and the home equity stuff is is better behaved. This doesn't show subprime if subprime is even a much of a factor anymore. I don't know that it is, but I think what's happening with credit cards and auto loans is alarming enough. And how about this one? I don't know if you even seen this. This I think was from u >> oh the Google searches. >> Yeah. This is pretty amazing to me. It's like okay if this stuff is going on which it apparently is how does that swear with a robust economy? Something isn't adding up. >> Yeah. >> Las Vegas. >> Yeah. So something I just want to interject here. So, right after we're done recording today, David, um I'm going to be interviewing Anna Wong from Bloomberg Economics. >> Mhm. >> And uh one of the questions I want to ask her because she's she's pointing to this rise in growth that you've mentioned um and she says it's largely due to ramp up in business investment and software and technology and um so I want to ask her like you know so is this uh a tale of two economies, right? Is it, you know, a t, you know, a a a slice of the economy doing so well that it is bringing up the average for everything even though the majority of the economy might actually be slowing down, right? Um, and this goes back to the K-shaped economy, right? Uh maybe even the I-shaped economy where um can't say for sure which one we're in, but these are things that you would expect to see. As long as the top end of the K or the dot and the I are doing well enough, they can keep the averages looking pretty rosy. Whereas the median is just falling further and further behind. >> Exactly. I saw a chart here. I should have probably included it which showed the and this I think is an estimate not precise that you know GDP and then X AI spending and AI related like data center spending >> and you know negative when you make that adjustment >> and I think there is truth but you know there's other parts too you know like defense >> well exactly yeah >> I think most struggle >> well it certainly seems so and obviously you know charts like these here with the the the internet searches, you know, really really show that that as of quite recently, something has changed where uh people are getting to a point of desperation, right? Sell my house fast, bankruptcy lawyer, sell my Rolex watch, whatever. These things are just shooting the moon. Um so, you know, I don't know. I I I guess time will tell. >> Always does. But I do think that these types of anecdotal things, especially when you weave together a number of anecdotes, are probably more accurate than these government statistics, which as we know tend to be erroneous, especially in their when they're initially released. And you and I were all over that about the jobs market. >> Right. Well, and to your point in our earlier jobs numbers. >> Yeah. And to your points earlier from, you know, your concern is maybe more from society's sake, right? This is the you get to a point where people hit their level of intolerance of saying, "Look, you're telling me it's a bright sunny day outside, but I'm looking out the window. It's rain. It's lightning. I'm getting rained on when I go out there." And at some point, you know, they they really there's there's a breakage of faith. And and one of the things that could be interesting here is um you know, the parts of the economy that are getting really fed right now, right? The data center buildout, all that type of stuff, right? you know, we're already beginning to see spillover from that into the cost of electricity, the retail cost of electricity, right? These data centers are competing for electrons with, you know, all of our the lights on all of our homes. And people are beginning to say like, "Oh my god, my power bill is going up relentlessly here." And there may be a societal point of push back where they say, "Look, I don't care how much AI is going to help the future of this country if I can't freaking, you know, afford to keep my refrigerator working." >> Well, especially if AI is coming for their jobs. >> Yeah, exactly that, too. Right. So, okay. Sorry for the the diet tribe there. >> No, that's okay. But I'm just on to your next one of your next favorite topics, credit spreads. And that's a big one for me, too. uh credit spreads used to be fantastically important, maybe the most important thing in terms of first the financial markets and the economy. So just as an explanation, it's the difference between what corporate bond yield and treasuries yield. And it's really narrow right now. And it's this Wall Street Journal article pointing out that that there are even people on Wall Street, as much as they love to see this scenario, that are getting worried that it's gone too far. And I I think this is another tale of two situations, tale of two bond markets. So you've got the high-grade bond market where I think there's a different factor at work. I think it's more of the erosion of the credit quality of the US and other western government bond markets and the you know so in France right now there is a corporate credit I think is it not sure it's SD ladder one of the big French multinationals that where the yield on their bonds is lower than the yield on the French government bond. I think that is what's going to happen in the United States. I think Microsoft's debt will trade cheaper than uh well the lower yield lower lower yield than the government. So the spread will actually be negative which is never well I guess there was a time from what Jeff Gunlock said in the early 80s where IBM debt yielded briefly less than the US treasuries but it's a very very rare occurrence but then on the other part of the bond market the crummy part you know where you got a lot of credit risk where you're getting defaults and maybe you've seen this is now private credit but so private credit and junk tends to overlap a lot and delinquencies are now up to 8% or defaults are up to 8% in the private credit world. I think people like Stephanie would say there's really a a ticking time bomb in that part of the credit market. So, it's I think it's a combination of this this shift that's going on with the high-grade part of the bond market combined with a lot of complacency and euphoria and excessive risk takingaking. I don't know whether you want to >> and we've seen of late a few bodies float to the surface, David. Right. Mhm. >> Yeah. So, >> yeah, those are I think those are really I can't remember where I got those coming up, but those are really I'm glad you brought that up because you remember the summer of 2007 when a couple of obscure bear starters hedge funds that were heavily in the subprime mortgages blew up and a lot of people, you know, dismissed it at the time as aberrations, but those were actually canaries coming off the the perch and the coal mines and maybe these are too, >> right? All right. I was going to ask how how notable are are you paying attention to those failures? >> Oh, sorry. I'll ask it again. How how how notable are those? >> Well, I'm definitely paying attention. I think it's premature to see say that they're >> I think they're notable. Are they conclusive, definitive? No. But I think they're they're a clear warning sign that something's wrong. I think there's just a lot of debt. You know, you've talked about this for years, Adam, and now it's really coming to to the point of reckoning where all this, you know, this debt maturity wall that was postponed by the refinancings that happened during COVID and now that debt is maturing. And so, you're uh I think you're going to see a lot of these firms that, you know, the tide goes out, you find out they've been swimming swimming naked. >> And I think what was shocking about these is how quickly they imploded. >> Well, that tends to I mean, it's the old Hemingway, right? you know, everything's fine until it isn't, right? Um, and uh, we'll see. You know, I I hesitate to mention the lag effect again because I talked about it for so long and it has taken so long to manifest, but I I still believe, as you just said there, Dave, that that it is manifesting and and again, as it does, it it it won't be a train that you see arriving uh, with lots of advanced warning. you'll see a company that looked just fine and then you wake up in the read the newspaper the next morning and it suddenly is announcing, you know, its insolveny. But anyways, uh David, there might be maybe it's been corrected, but I think there was a little bit of a lag in my video, my audio to you. Um but anyways, um I'll let you keep driving from here. >> There was, but you're you're sounding good right now. So, let's go to slide 26. And of course, it's the stock market and it is one prodigious party, no doubt about it. And we talked about AI and what a big factor. But here's what I think is is potentially being overlooked and that is China's uh kind of forced encroachment into AI. The reason I say forced is that we keep denying them the critical technology that they need to be uh you know a leading player in AI. So they're creating their own technology to do so. And you may remember, I'm sure you do, that back in January, Peep Seek, which is the Chinese AI came out, which was much less expensive and that really, you know, disrupted the AI stocks in America for a while. Then they of course we rallied on, partied on. But I mean, if we look at what China does when it goes into an industry, it destroys profitability. >> It destroys profit margins. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, you gota if I I if I'm a bull on Nvidia, I've got to be concerned that uh that China's coming, you know, one way or the other. Supposedly, Deep Seek has got an upgrade coming December that is supposed to be uh even better. But I just I'm seeing more and more evidence even from AI believers that this thing has really truly become a bubble and that the amount of money being spent is going to generate a very poor return on uh you know, invested capital. I I don't think you would disagree with that. I I I don't It sort of begs the question, you know, at what point does the market get the memo and are we in just a period of willful delusion where nobody really wants to admit it because once it's admitted then there's, you know, a cascade that starts and nobody wants the party to end yet, >> right? And I think what will be the tell potentially probably will be when some good news the kind of thing that causes you know like you were the one to point out to me Oracle because you called me the day before I you seen the news >> that Oracle made that announcement the stock went up 50% which for a mega cap stock is just staggering I think it added three or400 billion valuation in one day if we get to a point where you know something really positive is announced and whatever the stock or stocks are go down I think or don't go up I think that'll an indication that perhaps you know we we fully priced in all the best case scenarios. >> Okay. >> All right. So let's go to uh 28. This is actually I think relevant. >> Are you with me? >> I am. Go ahead. >> Okay. So this is just looking at what China's done to robotics. This is you know kind of a hard data point and they're really dominant. Of course they've dominated with EVs and it's just out of nowhere. You know they're now the largest exporter of EVs in the world. electric vehicles, most of which are hybrid, by the way. Uh, and I think that's one thing that that many investors are missing, is it's not that EVs are dead, it's that traditional EVs are not where the growth is. They're hybrid EVs, and that's what the Chinese big Chinese automaker BYD is really, you know, used to to to market share around the world, except in the US because the tariffs, but of course, they did it to solar. Uh, they've got self-driving autos that are I mean, they're basically giving away the self-driving technology. you can get a BYD uh hybrid with self-driving technology for something like 13,000 US. So, you know, for Tesla, which, you know, nobody really talks about their great EV business. They don't even have a hybrid, but it's their, you know, robotics and their uh self-driving, that's what's really got justified the valuation. But, I mean, it's a PE of 275 with following. I've never seen anything like it. There's just so much hope that they're going to be able to withstand this ferocious competition from China in robotics and self-driving. I I think that's a very dangerous game. But it's talk about a stock with momentum that just keeps going up and up and up and up. But anyway, I I do think there is severe turbulence coming for AI stocks at some point. That's just the way things are. Doesn't mean it's I mean AI is going to be with us for years and years and years and it's maybe the second coming the internet. But of course those internet stocks got clobbered 25 years ago after that bubble burst. But speaking of bubbles, I mean one thing that that's I think the purest way to look at valuations is to look at price to sales, price to revenue rather than price to earnings because the earnings can be manipulated. Uh and they're also subject to the economy cycles. But you know this goes back to 2000. So back then we saw the market trade at 2.9 time sales. And back then, you know, there was a, hey, you know, don't worry about that because this this whole internet thing is such a big deal. These traditional metrics don't apply. We hear that today. But look what happened after that. It basically got cut in half. And then if we go to now and I'm sorry, we got this lower pain. It's kind of distracting. We try to get rid of it, but we would lose the years if we did. So basically, we're at 3.3 almost on sales. So versus 2.9. So we are more expensive on a price to sales basis than we were during the biggest equity bubble in American history. So there there better be just a >> you know a cascade of of good news rather than horribles as we'll talk about or I think it's parade. We've got that coming up here from Danielle Park. So that that's a good lead into your because part of this whole approach that we use is to review your recent podcast. I'll try to do this really quickly. you had Sven Henrik on and he said something that I had not heard and it really caused me to go on a search looking for the GAP PE. So if if your listeners viewers don't this includes the bad stuff that companies love to exclude like stockbased compensation and it's at 30 now it did get to back during the meme stock mania which was a very frothy market but also we had a big earnings collapse so the E went down in 2020 to early 2021 but basically this is a really really unusual I mean we're basically again right back to where we were in in the late 90s, early 2000s. That other spike on the left side was a function of the recession was which actually was a pretty severe profits recession back in 01 early O2. So I do think he's on the right track. I think this is a good metric to look at. It's very uh confirmational of Oops. 33. >> So So David >> Mark, I actually found his presentation. I'm I'm I'm gonna interrupt you here, David, o only because we're getting into actually the part two part now, which we're going to have to record on a different platform. Um, and so folks watching >> Oh, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So, we should stop. Okay. >> We we should stop. I I will take a question or two from the audience before we wrap up here. So, folks, don't hop off just yet. Um, but again, real quick, um, David just gave you a little bit of a preview of what to expect, guys, which is, um, we go through, um, a number of the recent, uh, interviews that have been done on thoughtful money, uh, and then David and I will will talk about sort of some of the key takeaways that we took from it. And Dave just did one there from the recent Span Hen. Um, so, a couple quick things as we start to wrap this up. And like I said, I'll pull a couple questions here from the audience before we we hop off. Um, so David, real quick, I just want to give you a chance to address the question of um, if AI uh, is uh, all of a sudden the market realizes, wait a minute, um, there might be a lot less profit here than we thought and and as a result valuations are potentially severely overvalued. >> Okay, I lost. >> Okay. Um, so let me repeat that then. So if if the AI bubble um uh if Wall Street finally wakes up and says, "Oh my goodness, um you know, it may bring in a lot less profits than we thought and that makes today's valuations really extreme or as uh Chris Irons recently said, makes them pornographically overvalued. Um, yes, there could be a really big correction the AI stocks, but they are such a massive percentage of the indices right now um that this is not just going to be like a.com bust which brings down the internet sector. This is something that would I would imagine do a lot more damage uh to the general market indices than the general market. Correct. >> Probably. I mean, what happened back in 20202 is that as the tech stuff was stuff was blowing up, value stocks were actually going up. Maybe that would happen again, which would avoid what he just described. But that's a big maybe. So, it's, you know, that's why I think it's not a bad idea to be selling into this rally and not getting out, but just, you know, beefing up your cash reserves because again, nobody's, we've never seen this set of circumstances. So, I just don't think anybody can have confidence in predicting what's going to happen. Okay. Um, but your your strategy here is to sell into this rally. It's to be de-risking in this environment. >> Yes. And I like to do it methodically and gradually rather than say this is the day. >> Got it. Okay. Um, I'm going to ask a question here from Nathan. um which is I don't necessarily know if you think we're going to new currency regime but he says what will be the new currency after the US dollar is deval devaluated or devalued I think is what he meant. Um let's let's let's change the question a little bit David if the dollar is dramatically weakened versus the yen as you you think may likely happen from here what will the repercussions of that be the most notable repercussions? Well, it could be bullish. I mean, if you look at what happened, the last time the dollar was drastically devalued is the bull market of the 80s just kept on rolling until October of 87. And then after that big crash, then it kept on rolling again. Uh and it you know there were you may remember back then it was like Japan was taking over the world and they were destroying our semiconductor industry and there were some protection put in place for the semis and so there was another I mean that was that kind of helped set up the tech bull market that was coming in the 1990s. So it could be I mean I think this is what needs to happen. I mean we do need to have more production back in the United States. We do have a tremendous cost disadvantage and the way to address that is through a much weaker currency. Uh but that much weaker currency is not going to be too great for long treasuries. I don't believe I think it's going to be very good for certain hard assets and it's probably good for companies that benefit from the re-industrialization of America which have already been winners. I think you may remember I pointed out XLI the the industrial ETF when that had this big breakout. We certainly called that out in our newsletter. And so there's going to be winners and maybe even pharmaceuticals. might notice, you know, it's been such a depressed area, but you know, as these companies agree to to reshore their production here and then they're back in Trump's good graces and some of these stocks like Fiser just phenomenally cheap and there's going to be good money to be made. It's just going to be probably different areas and personally I think the AI area has been overexploited. >> Okay. All right. Well, thanks so much. All right, folks. We're going to start wrapping up here. A couple quick helpful links. First off, uh, most important one, um, if you don't already, you should subscribe to David's Substack, which you can go get right there at haymaker.substack.com. Um, we've talked a lot about gold this time around. If you are late to the gold game, um, and want to understand the different ways to buy precious metals and when they make sense, uh, feel free to read our free guide here at thoughtfulmoney.com/gold. Um, obviously if you want to talk to um, uh, a professional financial advisor in trying to figure out how to navigate this market um, and get specific advice to your own unique situation. Uh, you are welcome to uh, have a free consultation with one of the financial advisory firms that thoughtful money endorses. These are the firms you see with me on this channel week in and week out. To do that, just fill out the very short form at thoughtfulmoney.com. And lastly, uh the thoughtfulmoney.com fallonline conference is coming up fast. Uh I think it's just about 3 weeks away at this time. So um if you have not bought your ticket yet, run. Do not walk to thoughtfulmoney.com/conference. And the reason why you want to run is because the the early bird price discount, which is the lowest price we we've been offering, expires at the end of this week. And I want to make sure that everybody who can get the lowest price gets the lowest price. So go there. We have a phenomenal faculty this year. Best one we've ever had. Uh and one of the way reasons I'm I'm able to say that is because one of the uh faculty members is David Haye himself and he'll be there uh talking about uh income investing and uh and opportunities outside of the US. Um, but in addition to David, you know, we're going to have Lacy Hunt, Judy Shelton, Jim Grant, Stephanie Pomboy, Grant Williams, um, uh, Michael How, Darius Dale, Spven Henrik, uh, uh, Andy Sheckchman, um, Melody Wright, Lynn Alden, I'm probably forgetting one or two others, but it is a murderer's row of phenomenal macro and market minds. Hope to see you there. Again, the URL is topplemoney.comconference. Um, David, uh, I'm gonna ask you when we hop off here to go check your email. I'll have sent you a link to the the other recording that we'll use to schedule this part two here for folks. And I'll see you on there in just a second. Everybody else, uh, thanks so much for joining us today. Let David know in the uh, chat here or in the comments section below if you're watching the replay uh, your feedback on these monthly reviews with David. I think they're amazing. I'm really enjoying them, David, and I cannot thank you enough for doing this. Um, I I believe people really appreciate them, but folks, we always want to give you more of what you want and less of what you don't. So, just let us know. Dave, I'm already seeing uh comments here in the uh live chat. Folks love this. So, uh anyways, looking forward to doing this again with you in a month from now. >> Thank you so much, Adam. >> All right. And everybody else join for watching.