ADP Jobs Report: The ADP payroll report revealed a surprising decline of 32,000 private sector jobs in September, marking the largest drop since March 2023, amidst a government shutdown.
Federal Reserve Impact: The unexpected job losses have influenced market expectations, with a 99% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, according to CME Group's Fed Watch.
Sector Analysis: Job losses were widespread across sectors, with notable declines in leisure and hospitality, professional and business services, and construction, while education and health services saw a rise of 33,000 jobs.
Recession Indicators: The negative ADP numbers for three out of the last four months suggest potential recessionary conditions, as historically such patterns have coincided with economic downturns.
Market Reaction: Following the ADP report, yields on the 10-year Treasury note initially dropped significantly but later stabilized, reflecting uncertainty about upcoming labor market data releases due to the government shutdown.
Government Shutdown Effects: The ongoing government shutdown may delay the release of crucial labor market reports like the BLS non-farm payrolls, impacting market assessments and economic outlooks.
Economic Context: Despite recent strong GDP growth revisions, the labor market's weakness raises concerns about underlying economic health and the potential for a broader economic slowdown.
Transcript
Hello, fellow Rebel Capitals. Hope you're well. So, we had the big ADP payroll report come out and it shocked even me. Let's go right over to CNBC. If you guys haven't heard the news, you probably guess what happened. We'll go over the details and then try to connect some dots and figure out what this says about the US economy. So, private payrolls declined in September by 32,000. And that's even a little misleading because well decline I mean last month they were let's say 54,000. So does that mean that this month they're you know is does that mean this month they're at 22,000? No, it was actually a negative number. A negative 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown. >> You need to share your screen. >> Okay. H. All right. Now, going back over to that complete whiff here. Uh, where are we? There we go. Okay. So, private payrolls declined in September. This is the headline I was talking about. was a little misleading and the actual number was a negative uh negative 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout. So key talking points here private companies shed seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs the biggest slide since March of 2023 and this report comes as they're doing this whole government shutdown. So, but I don't know that that would really I guess it would because those people might not be spending money, those people that are going to be laid off, let's say, by the government and therefore that could impact private payrolls maybe next month because aggregate demand goes down. I think there's definitely an argument for that. But what's uh well, let's just keep going here because there's many interesting things to discuss. So, we got that. Uh, in addition, right here is where I'm reading, guys. In addition to the drop in September, the August payroll number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initial reported increase of 54,000. So, are you following what's happening here? We've we've got a negative 34,000, which could be revised. I didn't even know that they revised the ADP numbers. Huh. Well, news to me. So, we had a revision from 54 down to 30,000. Excuse me, a negative 3,000 in addition to a headline number for this report of negative 32,000. That what it was? Yeah. 32,000. Now, what's crazy is, well, actually, we'll get into that in just a moment here, you guys. And this is something that wasn't even on my bingo card. I didn't even realize that what they were doing with the government shutdown could impact this next thing that we're going to talk about. So, let me just kind of keep my place in the article here. Federal Reserve. Okay. So, how does this impact what the Fed's decision is? Let's go over to the CME group, the Fed watch, and see. So, I have not refreshed today. I used this for a video yesterday, and yesterday the odds were 96% that they were going to cut by 25 basis points, and it went all the way down to 3.3 that they were going to pause. My guess, let's, this will be fun. and we'll see what happens in real time is when I refresh this there will be an odds for maybe you know 1 2% for an actual 50 basis point cut and the the pause will basically be zero. So let's see what happens here. Drum roll please. Aha. Josh, did you see that? No, I didn't >> deserve my brilliance. Fast in my brilliance. All of you watching right now. Ah, there you go. I absolutely nailed it. Okay. And I did not I swear I did not know I did not uh look at this prior to going on this live stream. So, we exactly what I just said. Now, the odds of a pause are zero. The odds of a 50 are now at 1%. And then the odds of a 25 have gone up to 99. So So we're we're definitely getting a market response, that's for sure. Now, let's get back to the CNBC article. So now they're kind of breaking down where the job losses occurred. So elsewhere, uh, let me go back up here. Job losses spread across sectors during September, offset by a 33,000 increase in education and health services as schools reopened in healthcare. But what isn't it? Seasonally adjusted. Weird. Not sure why schools reopening. I'm assuming from like the summer break. I've been in school for so long. I think that's what's going on. I don't know why that wouldn't be factored into the seasonal adjustment, but anyway, let's keep going here. Elsewhere, leisure and hospitality, a key sector in consumer demand, saw a loss of 19,000 as vacation season wound down again. Why was that not seasonally adjusted? Is this not They said it was a seasonally adjusted number, didn't they? It has to be. I don't know what's going on here. Okay, other services uh category dropped 16,000 while professional and business services was off 13,000. Trade, transportation, utilities declined by 7,000. And construction, if you guys watched my video yesterday, this is a big deal. Lost 5,000 jobs. And just as a quick refresher, let's go back over to the Fred chart of construction jobs. You see exactly what I'm talking about. when I was doing that AI like indicator on or like a recession indicator leading indicators and then confirmation indicators and I was using AI to do all that back testing one of the the keys and um that I saw the main key was the labor market but within the labor market you look at construction and you don't need me to tell you that this is a very powerful indicator when this goes negative you're either in a recession recession or you're getting real real close. And so right now we see this just teetering on the edge basically flatline. But what we're seeing with the private payrolls and what we saw yesterday from the Jolts numbers is this number right here is likely going to go negative in the near future. And usually that ain't good. That's a big big red flag. Okay, let's go back to the CNBC article. Who is this talking? So, this is ADP's chief economist, Nella Richardson, despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter. Oh, she's talking about the GDP growth. Thought she was talking about the growth in the labor market. Yeah. So, that makes you sit there and look at the upwardly revised GDP numbers. Remember, they upwardly rei revised them from 3.3 to 3.8. eight. And you got to look at that, you're like, h, okay, a little suspicious. A little suspicious. And by the way, let me go back to the the live stream here. Let me know in the chat. What are the odds that Trump tries to fire whoever is in charge of ADP? I mean, I'm kind of joking, but I'm kind of not. I would give it Josh. What do you think? What do you think the odds are? I'm not saying that he can do it, but what are the odds that he at least comes out with like a tweet or something on Truth Social saying that or insinuating that the person that's running the ADP should be fired? Same odds as Josh being on Tinder. So, 100%. >> Yeah. >> What What do you think the odds are, Josh? that Trump >> I mean at least 50%. I don't think you could shoot anything below that. >> Yeah, I I I totally agree. Okay, let's get back to it. And by the way, if Trump does tweet out something today insinuating that this person should be fired, I will definitely do a live stream just on that topic just to point just to pat myself on the back after that after the Fed watch call. All right, joking aside here. On a broad scale, services service providers decreased 28,000 and good producers shed 3,000. Businesses with fewer than 50 employees lost 40,000 while companies with more than 500 added. Yeah, this doesn't surprise me. It's just the small and midsize businesses are getting pummeled. But that's been happening for quite some time. I mean, it's very similar to the overall economy, right? where you've got the bottom 75% is just getting crushed where the top 10% is doing great. I mean, it's the same thing with businesses despite the strong Okay, yeah, we got that. So, then they go on to talk about the BLS, which is what the point I wanted to make, and I could have sworn it was here. Here we go. The report comes as funding impass in Washington DC has led to the first government closure since 2018 into early 2019 failing a deal over the next two days. The BLS non-farm payroll report for September will not be released. That's something that's what I was talking about earlier. I didn't even that didn't even cross my radar that if they don't get this handled they the government then the BLS numbers we won't even get the non-farm payrolls and the non-farm payrolls are what moves the market the most. So I mean let's just call a spade a spade whether you love Trump or you hate him. if if Trump doesn't want the non-farm payrolls to be released because I mean he's looking at I mean there there's the the probability of there being a blowout number on the non-farm payroll in other words being way above expectations is is pretty low. So let's just say that the odds favor coming in at expectations but expectations are terrible. So even if it hits expectations, that tells you the economy sucks. And therefore, in Trump's eyes, you could or you could argue that that makes him look bad politically. So then the other option is that it's a huge miss, just like this ADP number. And if it's a huge miss, then that really really makes him look bad. And so I if there it's really kind of like a lose-lose situation. So I'm not saying that he's intentionally doing something to make sure that the non-farm payrolls don't get released, but I am saying that he's looking at this saying, "All right, so the non-farm payrolls don't get released. No skin off my back. That actually benefits me." Okay. Now, let's go over to this chart cuz I wanted to go back and see, okay, when we get these nonfarm or negative uh ADP reports, is that usually around a recession? Is that usually around an economic slowdown? I mean, what's what's going on here? So, as you can imagine, I mean, it just completely collapsed during the surveys sickness. But here's what's really interesting. Look at you go back to 2019 and in June of 2019 we got all the way down to 15,000 which is a terrible number for ADP but not negative. And then July we bounced back to 35. Look at August 3,000. Now look at September. 191,000 negative 191,000. Negative 191,000. And then you go to and I don't recall any other than the repo market blowing up. I don't recall any like weather event or maybe there was but I I don't think so because now we go but look at this December you have 219,000 219,000 it's 2019 George uh it's 447,000 but maybe that's not seasonally adjusted. that that would actually make sense because maybe hiring for Christmas and then you get a big negative number here in January. Yeah, that's probably what this is. This is probably just the fact that it's not seasonally adjusted at least this data series where this one is what I would be far more suspicious the negative 191,000 and then the downturn. So, so why is this important? Because if we look at the yield curve, you guys probably remember from watching my videos that it inverted in August of 2019. So my point here is was were we headed for an economic downturn possibly a recession even prior to the surveys sickness and then the government's response to the surveys sickness just made it that much worse which ironically gave more of an incentive for the central planners to come in and do all these things that completely distorted and destroyed the economy. but boosted GDP to where that recession was a Vshape and was very short-lived. It it's it's I think there's a great argument that even if we would not have had the survea sickness or the government's response to the surveys sickness, we still would have gone into a recession at the very least economic contraction. So, now let's go ahead and fast forward to the last time that we had a negative number out outside of what was revised uh a couple months ago. So, in March of 2023, we had a negative 53,000. Now, this is weird because that was Silicon Valley. That was Silicon Valley Bank going bust. That was Credit Swiss. A lot of people forget about that one. That was signature. That was First Republic. Doing this right off the top of my head. And so it was it's kind of weird that it we just happened to have negative 53,000 during that time frame. Maybe it was because people were freaking out. They thought the banks were going to implode. They thought their money wasn't safe. Maybe this was prior to the BTFP, which was basically the Fed's bailout. And therefore, they didn't hire. And then that's what led to the negative 53. Maybe I'm just spitballing it there. But this is obviously a time when we had a negative number and we didn't have a recession as defined by the NBER. Now I would argue that even back then at least 50% of Americans were living in a recession or recession type conditions. But that doesn't mean that the NBR NBER comes out and officially announces it. But what's what you have to focus on now is the fact that we have not just two two months of negative numbers in a row, but it looks like we had a third month back in June where we had a negative 23,000. So that means that three out of the last four months have been negative ADP numbers, negative job growth. So th this you know I don't know I this goes back to 201 uh 15 doesn't go back that far but within this time so in the last 10 years we can safely say that we have never been in a uh had uh two consecutive months or three months within four months of negative ADP numbers and not been in a recession or a massive economic decline as represented by the surveysa sickness. Let's see if we can go over to the ADP report itself. I don't know if there's any value there. I think we've made gone over the main talking points. Let's see the market reaction though. As you can imagine, yields tanked on the news, but they've recovered somewhat here. So, right when the ADP number came out, straight down, this is the 10-year going from 415 down to call it under 4.1. So, a decline about five basis points. That's a pretty big move in such a short period of time. But now we've kind of had a recovery. And I think probably what's happening is the market's realizing that we might not get the non-farm payroll this month. And so it's it's kind of normalizing. I think if we were definitely getting the non-farm payrolls, this would uh I think it would be down quite a bit more, but I'm just totally speculating. That's a guess. And by the way, I was reading earlier, I don't know if it's that CNBC article or not, but I I was reading earlier that if the government shutdown doesn't get solved, not only do we not get the non-farm payroll report, but we don't get the initial claims. So, this is the only labor market data that we're going to be getting here for the foreseeable future is just the Jolts numbers and just the ADP. So, maybe that ups the probabilities that we're going to see a tweet from Trump saying that someone needs to be fired. Ah, someone needs to be fired over at the ADP. And remember those odds. Let's just check them one more time to see if they've changed. The odds here at the CME Group, Fed Watch, for a rate cut, drum roll, please. Nope. Still the same. Still the same. So, I'm really looking forward to watching how this plays out over the next couple weeks. and you know a if we get the BLS report and what the non-farm payrolls say and then how that impacts kind of the market's perception as to not only the economy but what will happen with the Fed cutting 25 the Fed cutting maybe 50 who knows maybe we get to a point where there's above zero probability with the Fed cuts by 75 basis points all right guys enjoy the rest of your afternoon as always make sure you're staying it for freedom, liberty, free market capitalism. And we'll see you in the next video.
ADP Jobs Report Just Shocked The World
Summary
Transcript
Hello, fellow Rebel Capitals. Hope you're well. So, we had the big ADP payroll report come out and it shocked even me. Let's go right over to CNBC. If you guys haven't heard the news, you probably guess what happened. We'll go over the details and then try to connect some dots and figure out what this says about the US economy. So, private payrolls declined in September by 32,000. And that's even a little misleading because well decline I mean last month they were let's say 54,000. So does that mean that this month they're you know is does that mean this month they're at 22,000? No, it was actually a negative number. A negative 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown. >> You need to share your screen. >> Okay. H. All right. Now, going back over to that complete whiff here. Uh, where are we? There we go. Okay. So, private payrolls declined in September. This is the headline I was talking about. was a little misleading and the actual number was a negative uh negative 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout. So key talking points here private companies shed seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs the biggest slide since March of 2023 and this report comes as they're doing this whole government shutdown. So, but I don't know that that would really I guess it would because those people might not be spending money, those people that are going to be laid off, let's say, by the government and therefore that could impact private payrolls maybe next month because aggregate demand goes down. I think there's definitely an argument for that. But what's uh well, let's just keep going here because there's many interesting things to discuss. So, we got that. Uh, in addition, right here is where I'm reading, guys. In addition to the drop in September, the August payroll number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initial reported increase of 54,000. So, are you following what's happening here? We've we've got a negative 34,000, which could be revised. I didn't even know that they revised the ADP numbers. Huh. Well, news to me. So, we had a revision from 54 down to 30,000. Excuse me, a negative 3,000 in addition to a headline number for this report of negative 32,000. That what it was? Yeah. 32,000. Now, what's crazy is, well, actually, we'll get into that in just a moment here, you guys. And this is something that wasn't even on my bingo card. I didn't even realize that what they were doing with the government shutdown could impact this next thing that we're going to talk about. So, let me just kind of keep my place in the article here. Federal Reserve. Okay. So, how does this impact what the Fed's decision is? Let's go over to the CME group, the Fed watch, and see. So, I have not refreshed today. I used this for a video yesterday, and yesterday the odds were 96% that they were going to cut by 25 basis points, and it went all the way down to 3.3 that they were going to pause. My guess, let's, this will be fun. and we'll see what happens in real time is when I refresh this there will be an odds for maybe you know 1 2% for an actual 50 basis point cut and the the pause will basically be zero. So let's see what happens here. Drum roll please. Aha. Josh, did you see that? No, I didn't >> deserve my brilliance. Fast in my brilliance. All of you watching right now. Ah, there you go. I absolutely nailed it. Okay. And I did not I swear I did not know I did not uh look at this prior to going on this live stream. So, we exactly what I just said. Now, the odds of a pause are zero. The odds of a 50 are now at 1%. And then the odds of a 25 have gone up to 99. So So we're we're definitely getting a market response, that's for sure. Now, let's get back to the CNBC article. So now they're kind of breaking down where the job losses occurred. So elsewhere, uh, let me go back up here. Job losses spread across sectors during September, offset by a 33,000 increase in education and health services as schools reopened in healthcare. But what isn't it? Seasonally adjusted. Weird. Not sure why schools reopening. I'm assuming from like the summer break. I've been in school for so long. I think that's what's going on. I don't know why that wouldn't be factored into the seasonal adjustment, but anyway, let's keep going here. Elsewhere, leisure and hospitality, a key sector in consumer demand, saw a loss of 19,000 as vacation season wound down again. Why was that not seasonally adjusted? Is this not They said it was a seasonally adjusted number, didn't they? It has to be. I don't know what's going on here. Okay, other services uh category dropped 16,000 while professional and business services was off 13,000. Trade, transportation, utilities declined by 7,000. And construction, if you guys watched my video yesterday, this is a big deal. Lost 5,000 jobs. And just as a quick refresher, let's go back over to the Fred chart of construction jobs. You see exactly what I'm talking about. when I was doing that AI like indicator on or like a recession indicator leading indicators and then confirmation indicators and I was using AI to do all that back testing one of the the keys and um that I saw the main key was the labor market but within the labor market you look at construction and you don't need me to tell you that this is a very powerful indicator when this goes negative you're either in a recession recession or you're getting real real close. And so right now we see this just teetering on the edge basically flatline. But what we're seeing with the private payrolls and what we saw yesterday from the Jolts numbers is this number right here is likely going to go negative in the near future. And usually that ain't good. That's a big big red flag. Okay, let's go back to the CNBC article. Who is this talking? So, this is ADP's chief economist, Nella Richardson, despite the strong economic growth we saw in the second quarter. Oh, she's talking about the GDP growth. Thought she was talking about the growth in the labor market. Yeah. So, that makes you sit there and look at the upwardly revised GDP numbers. Remember, they upwardly rei revised them from 3.3 to 3.8. eight. And you got to look at that, you're like, h, okay, a little suspicious. A little suspicious. And by the way, let me go back to the the live stream here. Let me know in the chat. What are the odds that Trump tries to fire whoever is in charge of ADP? I mean, I'm kind of joking, but I'm kind of not. I would give it Josh. What do you think? What do you think the odds are? I'm not saying that he can do it, but what are the odds that he at least comes out with like a tweet or something on Truth Social saying that or insinuating that the person that's running the ADP should be fired? Same odds as Josh being on Tinder. So, 100%. >> Yeah. >> What What do you think the odds are, Josh? that Trump >> I mean at least 50%. I don't think you could shoot anything below that. >> Yeah, I I I totally agree. Okay, let's get back to it. And by the way, if Trump does tweet out something today insinuating that this person should be fired, I will definitely do a live stream just on that topic just to point just to pat myself on the back after that after the Fed watch call. All right, joking aside here. On a broad scale, services service providers decreased 28,000 and good producers shed 3,000. Businesses with fewer than 50 employees lost 40,000 while companies with more than 500 added. Yeah, this doesn't surprise me. It's just the small and midsize businesses are getting pummeled. But that's been happening for quite some time. I mean, it's very similar to the overall economy, right? where you've got the bottom 75% is just getting crushed where the top 10% is doing great. I mean, it's the same thing with businesses despite the strong Okay, yeah, we got that. So, then they go on to talk about the BLS, which is what the point I wanted to make, and I could have sworn it was here. Here we go. The report comes as funding impass in Washington DC has led to the first government closure since 2018 into early 2019 failing a deal over the next two days. The BLS non-farm payroll report for September will not be released. That's something that's what I was talking about earlier. I didn't even that didn't even cross my radar that if they don't get this handled they the government then the BLS numbers we won't even get the non-farm payrolls and the non-farm payrolls are what moves the market the most. So I mean let's just call a spade a spade whether you love Trump or you hate him. if if Trump doesn't want the non-farm payrolls to be released because I mean he's looking at I mean there there's the the probability of there being a blowout number on the non-farm payroll in other words being way above expectations is is pretty low. So let's just say that the odds favor coming in at expectations but expectations are terrible. So even if it hits expectations, that tells you the economy sucks. And therefore, in Trump's eyes, you could or you could argue that that makes him look bad politically. So then the other option is that it's a huge miss, just like this ADP number. And if it's a huge miss, then that really really makes him look bad. And so I if there it's really kind of like a lose-lose situation. So I'm not saying that he's intentionally doing something to make sure that the non-farm payrolls don't get released, but I am saying that he's looking at this saying, "All right, so the non-farm payrolls don't get released. No skin off my back. That actually benefits me." Okay. Now, let's go over to this chart cuz I wanted to go back and see, okay, when we get these nonfarm or negative uh ADP reports, is that usually around a recession? Is that usually around an economic slowdown? I mean, what's what's going on here? So, as you can imagine, I mean, it just completely collapsed during the surveys sickness. But here's what's really interesting. Look at you go back to 2019 and in June of 2019 we got all the way down to 15,000 which is a terrible number for ADP but not negative. And then July we bounced back to 35. Look at August 3,000. Now look at September. 191,000 negative 191,000. Negative 191,000. And then you go to and I don't recall any other than the repo market blowing up. I don't recall any like weather event or maybe there was but I I don't think so because now we go but look at this December you have 219,000 219,000 it's 2019 George uh it's 447,000 but maybe that's not seasonally adjusted. that that would actually make sense because maybe hiring for Christmas and then you get a big negative number here in January. Yeah, that's probably what this is. This is probably just the fact that it's not seasonally adjusted at least this data series where this one is what I would be far more suspicious the negative 191,000 and then the downturn. So, so why is this important? Because if we look at the yield curve, you guys probably remember from watching my videos that it inverted in August of 2019. So my point here is was were we headed for an economic downturn possibly a recession even prior to the surveys sickness and then the government's response to the surveys sickness just made it that much worse which ironically gave more of an incentive for the central planners to come in and do all these things that completely distorted and destroyed the economy. but boosted GDP to where that recession was a Vshape and was very short-lived. It it's it's I think there's a great argument that even if we would not have had the survea sickness or the government's response to the surveys sickness, we still would have gone into a recession at the very least economic contraction. So, now let's go ahead and fast forward to the last time that we had a negative number out outside of what was revised uh a couple months ago. So, in March of 2023, we had a negative 53,000. Now, this is weird because that was Silicon Valley. That was Silicon Valley Bank going bust. That was Credit Swiss. A lot of people forget about that one. That was signature. That was First Republic. Doing this right off the top of my head. And so it was it's kind of weird that it we just happened to have negative 53,000 during that time frame. Maybe it was because people were freaking out. They thought the banks were going to implode. They thought their money wasn't safe. Maybe this was prior to the BTFP, which was basically the Fed's bailout. And therefore, they didn't hire. And then that's what led to the negative 53. Maybe I'm just spitballing it there. But this is obviously a time when we had a negative number and we didn't have a recession as defined by the NBER. Now I would argue that even back then at least 50% of Americans were living in a recession or recession type conditions. But that doesn't mean that the NBR NBER comes out and officially announces it. But what's what you have to focus on now is the fact that we have not just two two months of negative numbers in a row, but it looks like we had a third month back in June where we had a negative 23,000. So that means that three out of the last four months have been negative ADP numbers, negative job growth. So th this you know I don't know I this goes back to 201 uh 15 doesn't go back that far but within this time so in the last 10 years we can safely say that we have never been in a uh had uh two consecutive months or three months within four months of negative ADP numbers and not been in a recession or a massive economic decline as represented by the surveysa sickness. Let's see if we can go over to the ADP report itself. I don't know if there's any value there. I think we've made gone over the main talking points. Let's see the market reaction though. As you can imagine, yields tanked on the news, but they've recovered somewhat here. So, right when the ADP number came out, straight down, this is the 10-year going from 415 down to call it under 4.1. So, a decline about five basis points. That's a pretty big move in such a short period of time. But now we've kind of had a recovery. And I think probably what's happening is the market's realizing that we might not get the non-farm payroll this month. And so it's it's kind of normalizing. I think if we were definitely getting the non-farm payrolls, this would uh I think it would be down quite a bit more, but I'm just totally speculating. That's a guess. And by the way, I was reading earlier, I don't know if it's that CNBC article or not, but I I was reading earlier that if the government shutdown doesn't get solved, not only do we not get the non-farm payroll report, but we don't get the initial claims. So, this is the only labor market data that we're going to be getting here for the foreseeable future is just the Jolts numbers and just the ADP. So, maybe that ups the probabilities that we're going to see a tweet from Trump saying that someone needs to be fired. Ah, someone needs to be fired over at the ADP. And remember those odds. Let's just check them one more time to see if they've changed. The odds here at the CME Group, Fed Watch, for a rate cut, drum roll, please. Nope. Still the same. Still the same. So, I'm really looking forward to watching how this plays out over the next couple weeks. and you know a if we get the BLS report and what the non-farm payrolls say and then how that impacts kind of the market's perception as to not only the economy but what will happen with the Fed cutting 25 the Fed cutting maybe 50 who knows maybe we get to a point where there's above zero probability with the Fed cuts by 75 basis points all right guys enjoy the rest of your afternoon as always make sure you're staying it for freedom, liberty, free market capitalism. And we'll see you in the next video.