Analyst Called Market Bottom, Now Up 38%; Reveals 2026 Outlook | Milton Berg

Summary

• US Equities: The guest advocates being long U.S. stocks based on a series of robust buy signals since early April, emphasizing that the model still indicates holding positions.
• S&P 500: Extensive discussion of S&P 500-focused signals, historical precedents since 1957, and a rules-based approach to enter on rare capitulation metrics and hold until an 8% drawdown.
• Fed Policy & Liquidity: Easing and liquidity actions are viewed as classically bullish; banks and small caps hit highs, though he stresses inflation concerns and prefers a zero percent inflation target.
• Bitcoin: Bearish stance with a recommended short; cites speculative public participation, lack of intrinsic valuation, cycle-date peak, and potential for prolonged period without new highs.
• Market Outlook: Near-term trend is positive from spring buy signals, but he flags long-term risks from overvaluation and leverage; breadth at highs has not shown breakaway action.
• Risk Management: Retail model buys at first confirmed signal and exits after an 8% S&P drawdown, parking in T-bills when out, historically improving risk-adjusted outcomes.
• Scope of Discussion: No single-stock tickers were pitched; focus remained on indices (S&P 500, Russell 2000) and themes (US equities long, Bitcoin short) with data-driven historical backtests.

Transcript

So we had a uh a good good correction, a good bare market ending ended on April 8th between April 4th and August 13th. Quite a number, you know, probably more than 50 separate buy signals. We cannot at this time consider the gains off the November 20 low as anything more than an oversold bounce of little technical significance for the intermediate term. >> So I think investors right now are just looking forward to your guidance. We're looking for your guidance on what to do exactly. >> Well, obviously they're easy. >> It's my pleasure to welcome back to the show Milton Burke. He is a founder of MB Advisors. Milton's been working on a proprietary uh market model for quite some time, many years he's told me, and now he's finally ready to launch it, use it, and uh share with us how it works. And we'll be getting his outlook based on his model. We'll talk about how the Fed has impacted markets or may impact markets. We'll talk about any other macroeconomic drivers that Milton thinks are important. Welcome back to the show, Milton. Good to see you as always. >> Good to see you, David. >> Good to see you. Let's see. >> Yeah, thank you. Thank you. Good to see you. I'm very happy to be able to share with my audience this proprietary model you've been working on. We're going to talk about that. I want to start by talking about uh what happened yesterday at the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee uh meeting and we'll talk about their decision. So, here is an article that highlights one of the key decisions that they've made. They will start uh reserve management treasury bill buying uh said it would start buying shortdated government bonds to help manage market liquidity levels to ensure the central bank retains firm control over its interest rate target system. Uh they technically uh the technically uh oriented purchases will commence on December 12th. The central bank said as part of the policy announcement associated with its latest FOMC meeting. Uh now Milton, the market was interpreting yesterday's move as relatively good news as you're aware. Stocks went up and some people are calling this the beginning of a new round of quantitative easing. I don't know if it is. We'll let you comment on that and generally speaking whether or not this decision among others to ease rates, for example, have anything to do with your long-term outlook for the markets. >> Well, obviously they're easing or easing process over the years. It's been assumed that when the Fed is easing, it's it's bullish on markets and that's generally been the case. It's not always been the case. They're easing throughout the 2008 to 2009 decline. But generally easing is positive. Generally um uh quant quantity easing when treasury securities it is liquidity generally it's positive. Um so I have to say yes the market re market reaction was positive. The bank stocks made a new alltime high yesterday. The small cap stocks the rest of 2000 which had been lagging for two years is finally at at an all-time high. So, I'd say the market is telling you that it's positive. Um, in reality is, um, the Fed should really focus more on inflation. In my opinion, inflation is still too high. The target shouldn't be 2%. The target should be 0%. And then you'd have much much healthier economy and probably a a a far healthier markets. You won't see bubbles if you if the Fed will allow inflation to get down to zero. But they're not. It's 2.8 2.9% and they're still easing. So, uh, classically, this is considered bullish. whether or not there could be some uh uh uh um black swans along the way that that that totally can't be predicted. >> You were on the show a couple of months ago, early in the year actually. Um I'm just going to quote an interview with me from March. Uh back then you' said the market had bottomed for now, but long-term you remain cautious. Uh you said that a bigger uh bubble uh potentially bubble pop or crash awaits. Uh we have had multiple corrections along the way especially along October and November especially within the crypto markets which underperformed stocks overall in fact are down over year-over-year is this bubble pop that you spoke about earlier in the year has that already happened Milton? >> Well it certainly hasn't already happened. You know, I what I what we do if if the if you're going to get a a a a pop bubble in a market crash, I mean, if the market is not even down 4% or 5%. You you might as well wait for the market to be down 8% or so before you start worrying about is this is this a crash or not. If you're trying to trade for short-term moves, we had a uh a good good correction, a good bare market ending ended on April 8th. Um that was that was a a bare market in terms of the extent of its decline and the kind of pessimism we saw at the lows. uh we had just slight correction in the S&P not even anything more than 5% since uh since uh since the market started rallying. You did see an 8% decline in the Russell 2000. This is basically a bull move that started in April. It seems to be continuing. Um again the background definitely long-term seems very very negative. I mean things everything is overpriced. There's tremendous leverage in the system and eventually it will pop but it's probably best to wait for to to see the first signs of popping rather than to anticipate it. I mean, there have been people in my in the business, you probably know some of them who've been talking about this bubble popping for the last 15 years. >> Best to wait for it to go down 8 9% and then decide, well, is this just a correction or is this just a bare market? We think that we had in the A decline showed up as a a classic uh concentrated bare market and we had amazing buy signals at the lows. So, we have to assume the market's going to get higher. Now, we don't try to project necessarily how high mark's going to go. we have the indicators that tell us either the market has bottomed or the market has topped. Currently, uh the the we saw many indicators in April, May, uh and even August telling you that the market has bottomed but it's headed higher. But the technical underlying technical data which we have a four-page uh spreadsheet called technicals at the high are all consistent with what you see at all major market peaks in the past whether it's valuation, whether it's interest rates, whether it's uh it's breath and so on. So, it's it's quite possible the market could this bubble could pop at any time, but there's no evidence that it's happening at this time. As far as Bitcoin goes, you know, I've been a Bitcoin bear all along. It never made sense to me. It still doesn't make sense. We currently have a short position, a recommended short position in strategy. Um, we're actually doing quite well in that short position. And I think it's possible that that the Bitcoin bull market has ended. Um, whether or not it will go down to 10,000, 5,000, or 90,000 or 85,000, we really don't know. But the evidence is I may, you know, me my my my my distant relatives have been calling me about Bitcoin over the last few months whether they should buy it or whether they should buy any more. They already had some. So a relative might put $1,000 in Bitcoin. It's now it's worth $2,000 and she's all nervous. Should she get out of it or not? She should she buy more. So I think the public has been too involved in Bitcoin. Bitcoin is very sophisticated asset class. The fact that uh you know the the grandmothers all over the country and all over the world have been buying Bitcoin suggests that that it has the type of speculative fever that you see at market bubbles and whether or not this popped this looks like it's quite possible that it popped and it quite possibly won't see the highs for quite a while. I mean there's some analysts going over there talking about million dollar million dollar Bitcoin and there's really no basis to value a bitcoin. Now you could value gold based on its industrial usage based on it jewelry usage. You could value copper. You can value oil based on, you know, whether it makes sense to purchase the oil to use uh to get to to get energy. But really, there's no way to to to value Bitcoin. If it goes to a million dollars, I mean, for if Bitcoin will go to a million dollars today or goes to $10 today, you really can't analyze based on any any underlying valuation just based on supply and demand. So, it's a very difficult asset. It it it strictly moves on technical technical does not move on on any fundamentals. It had quite a nice pop. It by the way it peaked on one of our cycle dates. There's people don't like me to talk about cycle dates but we have a number of cycle dates each year in which markets are prone to to reverse and the October 10th peak in Bitcoin was on a major major cycle date. The cycle dates were not developed by me. It developed by one of my mentors Paul Montgomery. And uh you know we have cycle baits going out for the next hundred years. So it's not something we we we really uh have to create um have to model for. But the fact that Bitcoin peaked on October 10th, the fact there was so much speculation in Bitcoin, it suggested that perhaps the high Bitcoin will last for quite longer than the Bitcoin bulls expected to last. >> Before we jump back into the video, let's talk about something most people ignore, but is very important. Your online privacy. 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I think there's a tech there's no real proof of that. We have having a bull market in stocks, you know, basically for quite a number of years. We had a bull market in Bitcoin for quite a number of years, but I don't see any real correlations except for logically, you know, Bitcoin is going to move on liquidity and so stocks move on liquidity. See, there's the stocks move for fundamental reasons and stock could move strictly because there's money in the system that has to go somewhere and ultimately it ends up in stocks and some of it ends up in Bitcoin. So as far as that's concerned, yes, probably a crash in the stock market and a cr would be associated with a crash in Bitcoin. If if if uh if people have meet margin calls in the stock market, they have to sell the Bitcoin to meet the margin call. Or the other way around, if they meet a margin call in Bitcoin, they may have to sell the stock. So usually if the market will decline on a liquidity basis, there'll be tightening in liquidity, there's a reason to believe that both Bitcoin and and and stocks should move down at the same time. >> All right. Excellent. Milton, let's talk about your model and um why you're feeling well the way about markets the way you do. So >> this is it. Basically, we have uh we had quite a number of buy indicators between April 4th and August 13th. Quite a number, you know, probably uh more than 50 separate buy signals between April 4th and August 13th. We positioned long on April 8th for our clients after being shorted to the decline. April 8th was the day of the low. April 9th was the first upside day after the low. And um we had quite a number of models. What I what I'm trying to do is is to show that the signals we've gotten from April 4th through August 13th are are signals that were generated historically in the market as well. This is a chart. I'll read what I wrote. From April 4th to August 13th, 2025, a model generated a series of buy signal indications. Again, there are over 50 buy signals which had in the past signal on the 104 dates highlighted below. So, just to review this again, we have models which is very dissimilar to anything you've seen on Wall Street, but whether it's fundamental or technical models and these models signal between April 4th and August 13th. And we're going to show these models how they done in the past. And in fact, um there are many, you know, going back to 1957. As you can see, the same mile of a signal in the short periods April 4th, August 13th have given us multiple multiple signals in in the past. So that's really the the first point I'd like to make. Uh David, am I clear about this chart? >> Yeah, very clear. >> Chart is showing dates of vice and you can't see all the dates, but for example, you see a date of March 27th, 1980. That was after the bunker hunt collapse. We'll get to that in a moment, but this is a chart basically showing that what we saw from April 4th to August 13th is not something unique and new, but it's something we've seen historically in the market going back to 1957 many, many, many times. That's the first thing I want to show. Now, we're going to show you a little bit about those signals. These dates you see over here. We're going to show them one by one. So, let's start October 21st, 1957. One of the models that signal on April 8th also signaled October 21st, 1957. We're going to get to the models later. I first want to show the concept. So one of the models is single April also signal April 21st 1957 and in 1957 the market gained another 55% before its next 12% correction. Okay the draw down was minus0.43%. That's that particular indicator. So so a model signal in 1957 the market went up 55% before it next had a 12% correction or tilt decline and the pullback after the signal was only 0.43%. 43%. Now the next date is October 23rd 57. It's the same idea. The sub signal April 9th also signaled on October 23rd 57. Next is June 26, 1962. The market had declined 27.97%. On the day of the low we got a buy signal which is the same buy signal we got on April 8th. Now what the signals are we'll get later on. I first want to show the concept of the what I'm pointing at is what we've seen now we've seen in the past and there's reason to believe the kind of action you've seen in the past should continue currently which is which is the future from from 1962 1970 the market was down 36% a couple days after the low we got a signal that was the same signal we saw on April 9th of this year and let's go to 1970 let's go to 1974 the market had a major bare market down 4820% that's when you had inflation and you Fed starting to tighten and you had a you had you had a recession, a major major collapse. It was really far worse than 48%. The overthec counter stocks were down on average 85 to 90%. They didn't have the NASDAQ then, but you had an overthec counter index which was uh which people got was was decimated. In any event, what signal on October 1174 also signal April 24th, 2025. In that instance, as you see, the the low was already in. The market tested the low, but the market was up another 51% before it declined 15%. It was only up 5% before this correction. This correction was really just a test to the prior low. This signal told you that the low was in. There was fluctuations, but the low was in and the market gained, you know, 51% um uh before the next 15% decline. That's 74. Let's go to the next period. This is 1978. This is also a signal on April 9th. signal in April 1478. Mark gained 15% before the next 12% correction with a 0% draw down from that signal. Let's go to the next this is a very important date and most people watching probably weren't in the market at that time. I happened to have been in the market and March 27 1980 called the bunker hunt collapse. The the the one of the richest men in America was I forget his first name. His last name was Hunt. Maybe I forget his first name. And he was uh trying to corner the silver market and he got caught uh basically the the people on the board of directors of the of the Comx decided to uh call in many trades. They didn't allow any leverage. Anyone who who who was using margin to buy silver had to liquidate and silver went down from roughly $50 to $5. And the stock market went down 27% over a short period of time. And in this case um it bottomed March 27th we got a signal on the exact day of the bottom and the same signal we got on April 8th which is exact exact day of the current bottom. But this is a very interesting uh market because the market bottomed rallied and then a bare market began that same year. had a correction of over 20%. The market rallied and that was the final peak and they had a bull market beer market into 1982. The bottom of 1982 which was really the beginning of this great bull market that was started in August of 82 what signal then on August 17th 82 also signal April 9th 2025. In this instance the market was up 58% before its next 12% correction and the maximum loss pullback was 0.47%. go to you go to 84 which is another instance the market only declassed 15% into the low the signal April 9th and the same signal got August second the market went up 113% before it next 12% correction with a 0% pullback in other words this signal never had any pullbacks uh go to 84 let's go to 87 before the crash April 9th 87 got a buy signal market up 33% before its next 12% pullback with a zero pullback again this is signal on April 9th AP October January 7th was something that signal April 11th of 2025 and same kind of returns. Uh let's get to something people more aware of which is the 2000 uh let's go to 2000 2000 to 2002 to the bare market the you know the dotcom crash we had a buy signal during the decline the market was down 20 the S&P was down 27% into April 5th and we got a buy signal the market gained 14% in 31 days with a 2% draw down and of course then it went down lower and lower but the fact that the buy signal during the bare market gave us a 14% rally uh then you got another signal in the bureau market, September 20, 2001. That's when you had the the infamous 9/11 uh um um terror attack in the United States, which seems to be forgotten by many people. But in any event, the market bottomed during a bare market, had been down 36%, it gained another 19% before the next 12% pullback. So the although we got a signal during a bare market, this was signal April 8th, it was followed by a strong gain of 19%. And let's uh just to get a little further, give you some better idea of what's going on. Let's go to uh I can't go through every date. Let's see. Uh let's see 2020. Let's see 2018. First of all, you had a you had a pull. You had a Let's go to 2020. They had the the COVID crash 2020. On March 20th, which I think is the day before the low, we got a buy signal. This is the same signal you saw on April 7th of 2025, April 8th, April 9th, and April 10th of 2025. The market had been down 33.92%. It pulled back 2.93% the next day and then rallied 108% before the next 12% correction. So I'm just trying to give you a flavor of what the models are doing for us. The models aren't just looking at at the, you know, at what the market doing, give you an opinion what we think is going to happen based on the Fed, based on the economy, based on our recession. We have data that goes back to 1957. The reason we use 1957 rather than 1928 because the S&P did not begin in 1928. 1928 had 90 stocks. It first became an SP500 in March 4th, 1957. And the technical data is totally different now than it was then. So we only use data starting on March 4th, 1957 to create our models. We don't use data prior to that. And some technicians still try to use data back to 29, but that sort of screws them up because it's a different market and then and it's a different it's a different index. You have it's from 90 stocks to 500 stocks. It's much broader at this point. Okay. >> So I think I've completed. Let me show you the card. So we got a buy signal on April 4th. This is our current market. April 4th, the market, the bare market was 18.9% in the in the in the S&P. This signal 2 days before the low, the market declined 1.80% over the next 2 days. So far, it's gained 35.81%. So, this signal has worked very well, and I showed it in the past. It worked well as well. We got a signal on April 7th, which was one day before the low. The market gained 36% before. It never had a 12% correction yet, but it's down 1.57%. His greatest pullback since the signal was 1.57%. April 8th, another buy signal. The market's up 38.29%. That was the day of the low. So, of course, there's no pullback. That was the day of the low. So far, the market's up 38.29% subsequent to that signal. We got a signal on April 9th. Many signals April 9th. The market declined five corrected 5.47% in the test of the low and didn't get very close to the low and the market's up 26.28% from that date with a pullback of 5.47. Another signal April 10th signal April 11th signal April 22nd, April 24th, April 30th, May 5th, May 16th. May 16th signal had a 2.61% pullback, up 14 15.65% so far. We don't know if the top is in yet. And the final signal is August 13th, 2025. The market's only up 6.56% since then. It's only 53 days and its pullback was only 1.49%. So this is giving you a general background of what the model should do. I haven't yet told you what the models are. What is this model? What is this crazy model that Milter Brooks think spent 10 years developing which he believes is sort of like the holy grail going to be the holy grail of this market. I want to keep it very proprietary. I don't want to share with too many people. We have institutional clients and they they also haven't seen all of this. They just see a little bit of what we we've done. But now we completed the project. I want to get some idea of what exactly going on. Is this voodoo? Is this logic? Is it magic? Is it technical analysis? What exactly is this? So we're going to >> Can you just show the interface of the model? Like what does it actually look like? because uh >> alhamdulillah I'm show you right now what the model >> all right let's do it >> that's the next the next step now the model is not a model you see what people generally do in this business is they find a model whe it's a crossing of a moving average whether whether it's number of highs relative to number of lows whether it's what number of high volume relative to the low volume is not one model we've created using 30,000 indicators we created over 2,000 models that have been successful in calling market bottoms and market tops is a separate issue going to discuss that later on. We're just talking about market bottoms. And you know, the most difficult time to invest is at a market bottom and it's the most profitable time to invest because the stock market spikes at the lows. It doesn't spike at the tops. The stock spikes at the lows. You know, you miss the first few days of a beer of a bull market, but you often given up your return for the year or even for two years. So, we've created 2 thou nearly 2,000 models based on 30,000 indicators. It's not one model. It's basically we've modeled the market. We modeled the market from 1957 through the current period. And what we found is what type of indicators occur at trading points specifically at at turn trading points in which you want to buy stocks. We ignore where to sell stocks for now. So let's look at what we're going to go some of the models give you some idea what we're looking at and how this works. April 4th, 2025, we said we got a buy signal. Now what was that buy signal based on? What was this model based on? Number one, the NASDAQ's fiveday volume was its highest in at least 200 days. Okay, that's a very rare thing to see to see the the fiveday volume of any index have it a 200 day high you Okay, so this is a a a very rare thing and it's generally seen at trading points this type of high volume. Next, the NASDAQ decline 7% over a 3-day period. Okay, also very very rare. I mean, how many how often do markets decline 7% over a three-day period? and the VXN which is a VIX on the NASDAQ. VXN VIX on the NASDAQ gained 10% for two days in a row. Okay. Now, this has occurred three times in the past. The fourth time was was in April. And let's see what what these going back to the dates I showed you previously. So, for example, the S&P was up 100% of the time. 2 days, 3 days, 4 days, 5 days, 10 days, 15, 30, 40, 60, 90, 120 days out. It's up 100% of the time. Now, let's see what exactly this is. October 8th, 1998, the same three indicators occurred simultaneously. August 24th, 2015, the same indicators occurred. In 1998, the market gained 47% before the next 12 pullback. And in 2015, it was at a a bottom area. The bottom in February was only 2% below the bottom August, but the market gained 11% before the next 12-cent pullback. And it signaled August 5th, 2024. Last year, after a correction of about 7%, the market gained 18.468%. 468% before the next 12% pullback with a zero zero zero pullback in the in the market be before the gain and the signal April 4th 2025. So these three indicators are three simple indicators. Highest volume in 200 days, VXN, the VIX for the NASDAQ up 10% two days in a row. And the third indicator was the um was the um let me get to the third indicator was the was the um the NASDAQ down 7% three days in a row. That alone only took place these three times in the past. Each time the market rallied and it getting market to rally on April 4th and our retail model which you get to later is officially long since April 4th. We're long the market on the retail model which we haven't really marketed yet. We hope to market in the next few days that's been long since April 4th. We have no reason to get out of the market. That's one signal April 4th. Okay. Now we have a signal is on both April 4th, 7th and 8th of 2025. And again, the NASDAQ's 100 5day volume is it highest in 200 days. And the NASDAQ was declined 7% over a 3-day period, but instead of using the VXN up 10% two days in a row, we're looking at the S&P VIX, looking at the VIX, its level was somewhere between 45 and 60. In other words, there was a spike in the VIX, far greater than you usually see in the VIX. The VIX average is about 15. It was between 45 and 60 on that day. And it this signaled three days in a row. So we got a buy signal on April April 7th like basically as you can see the markets 100% of the time 120 days later and you got a signal August August 8th 98 August 8th 2011 which at that bottoming period the market gained 90% before it next 12% correction pullback was only 1.80%. And it signal on April 4th signal on April 7th signal April 8th and signal those three days. So again, another reason to buy the market, another model. Rather than using the VIX up 10% for two days, we're using the level of the VIX and the level is between 45 and 60. Now we have another signal that also signaled on April 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th, 2025. But again, it signaled in the past. So this signal was basically the 5day New York stock exchange volume was the highest in over 375 days, sometime in the past 20 days. And what does that mean? We mean we're looking for a high volume regime. We're looking for a market that is that is creating higher than average volume. Now, you not necessarily have to see the higher than average volume on the exact day of the signal. We're just saying as long as in the sometimes the last 20 days, the 5day volume in the New York Stock Exchange was the greatest in 375 days. This signals as a as a an indication of something's happening underlying the market. On top of that, we have an oscillator. I put the NDR's oscillator was was 10 or below, which is an 18. They have an 18 oscillating. We've adjusted a little for ourselves, but for purposes of this presentation, we're using NDR, which is Ned Davis Research. Their oscillator was 10 or below. And the NASDAQ new highs minus new lows. You know, you look at the number of highs, number of lows on a 5-day basis was was minus 16, which is a a a strict oversold reading. And again, basically what you see here is a buy signal on April in the past on September 1st, 1998 up 42%, three and a half% pullback. You saw it December 24th, 2018 up 44% no pullback. You saw it on 2618 a few time March 20, 2020 one day before the low pullback of 2.9% a gain of 108% before the next 12% pullback. And you saw it on April 7th, the market's up 36% since then. You saw it on April 8th, markets up uh 38%. You saw it on April 9th, markets up 26%. You saw it on April 10th, markets up 30% since then. So again, we We don't have a model. We've modeled the market. The market gives messages to turning points. And listen, the way how did we discover that that this could work? I put 10 years into it having confidence that I could be able to model the market. I don't anyone else has a ever been able to model the market in >> what's the uh what's the back testing result, Milton? >> I'm showing you the back testing result. This is what you're seeing. You see, every time this happened in the past, every single time, >> each indicator you're seeing is showing you when in the past have you seen the same combination of rare indicators occur. And interesting enough, >> it occurs at the time when it's time to buy markets. Now, you've heard of all this. You want people say capitulation at the low, but no one ever measures the capitulation properly. You hear people say, "Oh, people are panicking. Volume is up." That's true. How high is it up? 5%, 10%, or the highest volume in three years? You see, so we've modeled the market. We've have thousand we have roughly 2,000 models that that go back to 1957. And the rarity is actually the the blessing here because what you're looking you know if you're going to if you if you're trying to uh I I don't a good example to give you. You want to you want to bomb a building. If you if if he's a 10 ton bomb, it's going to collapse. If he's a 100 ton bomb, it's certainly going to collapse. But it it's far rarer to you know I'm trying to what what I mean say is it's a rarity of the signal that gives it gives it its benefit. So people say well how can you rely on a single only happened three times in the past. >> What I meant was uh what would have you have you have you had the chance to use this model use the indicators and and and back test the performance of uh a trader or investor if he had traded on every single one of these signals. >> Yeah I have that. I'm going to show you that show you that in a moment. But >> all right, >> you you're missing something that question cuz I haven't told you when you get out of the market. >> Oh yes, very key. Yeah, please. >> We told you that the bull market is know what you want to know. What we're saying is investors want to know that now is the time to buy stocks. When is the time to sell stocks is a separate question and we're not we're not getting into this question at this moment. I'm just trying to other than that the back test is is is right here in your face. Let's take let's look at the back test. Let's take this signal like let's take one that has more Let's take one that has more uh more historical signals. Make it a little more exciting. Let's take this one here. Okay. >> All right. >> This one here has uh happened six times in the past. It's signal on April 8th. Okay. Very simple. NASDAQ's 5-day rate of change is weakest in 1,260 days, which is a 5-year period. So, basically, you talk about capitulation, you talk about signs of low, signs of panic. NASDAQ's 5day loss was the greatest was a was the weakest uh performance in the NASDAQ on a 5-day period in 5 years. Extreme. Secondly is the we we have a new measure of the AD line. I'll give it away. No one has heard it before. People look at the AD line saying, "Well, how many stocks in the SP were up on the day? How many were down?" Or how many stocks in the NASDAQ were up on the day and how many were down on the day? Well, that's a nice indicator to use. I I don't think people have been very successful in using it. But what we decided, I don't care if a stock's up or down. Why it's only up a penny on the day or down a penny on the day? Why is it only up a quarter of a percent of the day or down? Why should that mean anything? There's no rarity in that. There's nothing special about that. So, what we did is we looked at any our ad our advanced decline is built on only stocks that either up a half a percent or down a half a percent on the day. You got the difference? The typical advanced decline line measures any stock that's up on the day is positive. Any stock that's down on the day is negative. What we do is we're looking only for stocks that are up more than half a percent in the day relative to stocks that are down more than half a percent in the day. And we got an oversold reading on on April 8th. The reading is 0.2. We call it a reverse reverse ad thrust. So in the past when you see that this combination of NASDAQ showing its weakest performance in 5 years and at the same time the 4day advanced a half a percent advanced decline line the S&P 500 is is at a is is at 0.2. you know 0.2 two, which is means a negative. And we've seen this six times in a bit. All good times to buy. Let's for example, first time is March 27th, 1980, the day of the low of the bunker hunt crisis. You've seen it on September 11th, 1986 as the market was setting up for its final bull run into the 1987 peak. Market was up 43% in uh uh with a 2.2% pullback. You saw the day of the low after the crash of 87, October 1987, where the NASDAQ 5-day rate of change was the worst in 5 years and the S&P 0.5% AD line was was as oversold as it was. You saw it on July 16th, 1998 after just a a minor pullback in the market. People were panicking. It was a sign of a low market 88% before the next 12% correction. And the pullback was only 0.2%. And you had to see October 27th. There was a mini crash in October 27th 97 just a couple of days we saw the the signal then market gained 35% over the next uh before the next 12 correction with 0.0% 0% pullback and you saw in August 31st 1998 which was the day of the low of the S&P after that beer market it did test it in in late in late September but that was the day of the low the market gain 48% with zero pullback so let's go back to your question have I back tested it what would you think the answer is >> uh I'm I'm going to assume yes uh I'm >> no no what you're seeing is a back test as far if someone wants to know should I buy someone calls his advisor or hedge fund calls his uh his guru. Should I buy stocks today? I don't know. What's the Fed going to do? I don't know. It's it's way below its moving average. I I don't know. Uh the companies are losing money. We're ignoring all of that. We're saying, what is the market telling us? And the market is telling us in this particular instance, it's telling us in in in March 27, 1980, after 27% decline, September 11th, 86, right before a a 40% move in the market. October 19th, the day of the low, the crash of 87 and and the market, you know, there are many reasons not to buy stocks, but the main reason to buy stocks is because our models are telling you this is the time to buy stocks. So, as far as the back test, now you realize I'm not telling you when to sell stocks. All I'm telling you is a good time to buy stocks. When to sell stocks is a totally separate separate issue. Nothing to do with this model. So someone will argue, well I bought stocks in 19 in in 1980 and I held it until now. No, that's not what this model is trying to do. This model is telling you when to buy stocks and when to sell stocks. We're going to get to in a moment. The key is when do I want to buy stocks through hedge fun? When do I want to lever up and buy stocks? When I will be 100% long rather than 25% long, when do I when I want to lift my hedges and so on and so forth. >> So right now your model's telling us to buy stocks. Is that >> my model is not telling you to buy now. My model told us to buy on April 4th, April 5th, April 11th, and so up until August, August 13th. >> Right now, we should be holding according to the model. >> Right now, a model, if you're going to be trading on the model as a as a you're still going to be long. There's no reason to assume that. But, you know, I have all this prepared to get to in a minute. I just want to show you how robust this model is. And I'm basically what I'm trying to show is just using a small period of time from April to August of 2025, we're able to show, you know, I'm only showing you a small portion of this model. I said there's 2,000 signals. We're only showing you maybe uh 15 or 20 of these signals. So, uh let's go to another one. Let's go to uh uh let's see what else over here. Let's go to uh let's go to uh uh yeah let's show this is very interesting this April 9th you know April 9th was the day where the um when the I think the NASDAQ was up 9% that speech was up 9% of the day the low took place on April 8th we we got a signal April 4th and April 8th we got many signals April 9th based on momentum off the low this is one one simple indicator the Russell 2000 had 18 times as many stocks up as down on the day the SP600 which is the S&P small cap had 30 times as many stocks up on the day as down. Russell was up 6% of that one day and the S&P 4 midcap is up 4%. So you have four separate momentum type indicators all occurring on the same day. Very very rare event. Now it's rare event. It happened three times in the past. Let's see what happened in the past where this occurred. And I'm showing you every I'm not picking out and saying well it's been bull bullish sometimes. I'm show you every single time this this this combination has occurred. And as you will see, it occurred on March 23rd, 2009, a couple of days after the low of the uh 2000 um of the uh of the great of the beer market into 2009. The the um the uh I think this was the um the COVID crash, right? No, that's 2004. This is a 2009 bare market. This is the signal on October 4th, 2011 after that. Um this is the B this client is based in the German banks. They're thinking of going there's talk about them going under. It peaked out. It bottomed in October 4th, 2011, November 10th, 2022 after the last beer market 2022 and the market um a few days after the low in the S&P this signal and April 9th, 2025. Basically, again, just take four types of momentum. We're combining it. Now, what I want to point out, David, you have many people on your show. You I mean, I've seen many I've been in this business quite a long time. I've seen many, many analysts, and I've never seen any analysts have this type of robust indicators. I see people talking in generalities. >> The market is washed out. >> Oh, the or they'll say, "Well, the the I you hear this all the time. Every time you see a great rally like you saw now in April 9, 2025, they say, "Oh, bare markets always have the greatest rallies." You hear that all the time. Well, maybe that's true. Be bare market rallies, but the greatest rallies don't show 18 times as much upside in the Russell as downside, 30 times as much of the in S&P 600 and so on and so forth. We found indicators that tell you now is a time to buy stocks and the last indicators we saw basically April 4th, April 9th. >> So just on the current situation here, I have a question on the differentiating factor between buying or holding. So you said now is not the the indicator is not telling us to buy but to stay long. What is the fundamental difference here between those two statements? >> Okay. I'm saying it is this. If someone's going to uh you know uh people are not in let's put it this way let's look at my typical client okay my typical client is a hedge fund right hedge fun multi-billion dollar hedge fund right >> and um there are going to be they expect to be in the market for 10 years 50 years 20 years they're going to give over to the children or grandchildren that sold the company and be around for 100 years >> over the next hundred years there'll be many many opportunities in which you're going to get you'll have a bare market or a decline or a breakout in which our our might as well tell them to buy stocks. They should buy stocks then. Now, I can't tell you today. For all I know, the market it's up 38% off its April lows. For all I know, the the the peak took took place today and they're going to start declining. That's a separate picture. We're going to get that in a moment. But the point I'm trying to make is this is meant to be utilized at the trading points by people who who want to make money. So, it's quite possible that uh the market could continue straight up from here and we're getting buy signals. I would tell a client to buy now with a stop, you know, maybe five, six, seven, 8% stop because basically we're still in a bull situation. But again, the point what I'm trying to show is the market doesn't give you signals every day. You can't just, you know, call up your advisor or call up your technician every day, say, "What's the market telling you today?" The market's telling me nothing today. But the market told me in April that we're headed for a big bull move and I don't know if it's ended yet. I have no evidence that it's ended yet. If I have evidence that it's ended, we'll start talking about that which is a separate issue. But um and we're going to get to that in a moment how how we model the the sales. But that's really really for retail clients. For institutional clients, we have many many um factors we look at as to when to sell. These are these instances of when to buy. We have many things when to sell. But actually for the retail, we've created a mechanical model. But I I'll get to that once I once I see once I feel that you've grasped what we're showing you over here. This is not not simple technical analysis. is basically uh we we've modeled the S&P 500 over a period since of over 75 years. >> How was it that you're able to get the buy signals at every single bottom local bottom and trough? >> I don't get no buy signal occurred at every single bottom. For example, I randomly opened up this April 9th, 2005. It didn't signal in a bottom in 74. Didn't signal a bottom in 1962. It didn't signal a bottom in 2000. It's a it's there. These models are look for rare events that occur at market turning points. Some events occur at at this turning point. Other others occur at other turning points. Okay? It's a combination of models. It's our hundreds of models together that is going to ch pick every single market bottom. There's no one indicator that's going to call every market bottom. Like there's no one indicator is going to call every market top. You know, you have these people out there who can tell you the mark's been overvalued for 15 years and that's the only only indicator they use on a fundamental basis. It's overvaluation. I'll let you comment on when to sell, but just looking at your presentation here, it looks like there's um several months, if not years, during which there's a buy period, uh if I'm not mistaken. So, I guess that may give us incorrect. Let me tell you why it's incorrect. It's incorrect because you're looking at this one model. Yes, this one model has only four buy signals. If you combine all the models together, we've create we we model every 8% decline, the SPF 500 has a buy signal. I'll repeat. Every 8% decline or more in the SP500 has a biasing that has occurred at at least twice, three times, four times, or five times. Every single one. I if you like I mean I wasn't prepared to do that. I can show you the dates I of the um well I actually I actually um will be able to show you something similar to that in a moment. So in other words, the the error that you're making here is you're looking at this model. Let me let me get one over here. You're looking at this say Milberg this is great. This is great. You signal in in 82, 87, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2018, and 2025. But what about the rest of the time? What what I'm going to do then? The answer is this model signals. Then not every model other model signal on other market bottoms. You see, >> if you combine, even if you just comb Oh, let me show you this. Go back to the first chart. Even if you combine the models I'm showing you today, which is only based on signals from April 4th to August 13th, even just these few signals we had from April 4th to August 13th shows far more signals than you've been pointing out. It signaled in 57, 62, 65, 70, 74, 78, 80, 82, 84 and so on. 87 80 priced 87, 91. And this is only a handful of our models. We've have I say we have thousands almost 2,000 models in which modeling the market. Many are redundant giving the same signals on the same dates. So just looking at this this is really not even the full picture. It's just a just a small picture. It's a small piece of the pie. April 4th to August 13th. What did the market tell us? And has it told us the same thing in the past. There were 104 dates in which the market has in the past in which the market has given you the same message it's giving you now. On all of those dates it was a good time to buy stocks. The last signal we we got was on August 13th. But the bulk of see the series of signals started on April 4th through the end of April into early May. And that's that would have been an ideal time to buy and that's when we were pounding the table to our clients to buy. Are we pounding the table? Now because listen I'll try to give you a little bit of what else we do to make it a little more robust. We we have this is some of the this is April 2020 bicycle projections. This this is sent to our institutional clients. Okay. >> So in April we on April we had quite a number of signals. You see as you can see all these signals here and all these signals here these all April. Okay. If you look at all the signals combined the median minimum projection was 6504 in the S&P 500. The median maximum projection meaning you look at the maximum gains of all the signals and you take the median of those maximum gains. It projects to 7,042.87 in the S&P. We're not there yet. So, it's quite possible the market gets up to 7,42. So, this is what we show for projections that that that wasn't the point of this uh what I'm trying to do now. I'm just trying to show you the robustness of the model when to get in and when to go long. Now, that's the then we have signals in May. That was April signals in May. We have uh these signals here in May. And you know, the same thing I show you S&P declined 5% held low for 10 days. 5day volume is greater than 375 days. The S&P is below its moving average. The NASDAQ 10day rate of change is the greatest in 504 days. That was on May 5th. In that instance, the minimum projection is 7158. The median projection is 8,086. But on average of all of these uh signals in May, you have we've met the median projection which was median minimum projection was 5912. We've met the medium maximum projection of of excuse me, no, excuse me. The median was 6,400 57 the median and the maximum 7135.82. We're not there yet. another 4% in the market. So this there's far you know we only have an hour a little bit over an hour to discuss this. There's far more to show you. But the point I'm trying to make is I I spent 10 years working on models for the for this S&P. People are afraid to buy at the end of a beer market. Whether it's a hedge fund, whe it's a retail investor, they capitulate. They may have held stocks for five years, but you get a COVID crisis or you get a a beer market and they sell based on the headline news. The Fed's going to tighten. There's a recession. there's going to be a war and so on and so forth. And what we have is created models based on market action itself, on market data itself, telling you when to buy and uh and giving you projections based signal of how high the market has gone in the past. We're not getting to the sell at this moment, but um basically um that's what we're showing. Okay, now I guess this is enough. I can show you more, but maybe you've seen enough. I don't know. I just want to >> I think that's a very thorough recap of uh of your model. So I think investors right now are just looking for to your guidance. We're looking for your guidance on what to do exactly. But you've explained that right now is holding right. We're not the model. >> Let me tell you further. Let me tell you even more than that. Okay. I'm going to give you exact exact guidance. >> We we went short for our institutional clients in um and we covered our shorts at the day 30 November 20th. November at the day of the low. I'll show you what indicators use for that for retail clients which we don't have any retail clients. We're going to start having retail clients. We're publishing going to publish a newsletter very inexpensive losers that are at $10 a month for long just for long-term investors that have IAS and they want to know when to be invested and when to be in cash. So this is good. This is this is that model. Okay. This is this chart is showing you that model. Let's see if I could do that. Let me move forward. Make give it a little more room. Okay. Now what this model does is it buys we have thousands again we have thousands of of signals. It buys at the first signal. Okay. In other words if the market if you're out of the if if let me let me if it's first signal it buys at you know you we get series of signals 5 6 7 8 9 10 signals. This model is meant to buy at the first buy signal. It does. It holds and holds and holds until the market declines 8% or more. In other words, if I bought in in in 1957, the market was up 45%. I'm holding until the market declines 8% from its peak. Now, what's the logic in that? The logic is many investors are scared out with the markets to decline 3%, 5%, 7%. What we did is we really said if we want if you want to prevent from prevent an investor from holding stocks in a bare market of 25 30 35 40 56% which we've seen over the last few decades. What's the best strategy to get him out? The stress strategy is not to look at the Fed. The stress the best strategy is not to follow advisors. The best strategy that we could find that we could model was simply holding your the S&P 500 until it declined 8%. When it declines 8% you get out and you wait for the next buy signal. Now, since we've modeled every 8% decline, every decline in the market, we're quite confident that if a client gets out of 8% and the market bottoms down 8 and a half% that he'll he'll he'll get back in. This is the mechanical model which shows the sales mean it's the total return of the S&P 500. Each buy signal is the first buy signal of the series of signals we get. Now for institutions of course we dealt totally differently. Let's get a series of signal. We'll leverage up on a second signal. We'll you know we'll we'll we'll we'll we'll uh we'll sell puts at using the the low price. For example, my first recommendation on April 9th to the clients was sell puts using the lows of the of the prior in the prior day marks up 9% because we have we felt those lows will hel will hold and they did. But for retail clients, the model is going to tell them you buy and you hold and we'll tell you when to sell when the market's next out 8%. Now, just looking at the total return, let me show you what we've gotten with this model. This is the 8% MBE retail model. the S&P the the long S&P trades were profitable 90.9% of the time going back to 1957 the client bought and held till the next 8% decline till the model told him to sell his he his uh his his profitable trades were 90.9% of the time his average gain peranom total return was 21.7% the percent of time he'd be invested in the S&P was 80.8% 8%. So 20% in the market, 20% out of the market. 80% in the market, 20% out of the market. You're out of the market, you invest in T bills. The average return for T bills since 1957 has been roughly 6%. So we have uh anytime you're out of the market, you're always making money. In other words, you're out of the market, you're in T bills, you're making money. Combination of of of the 90% profitable trades in the S&P and the 100% profitable trades in T bills gives you a 95%. So 95.4% 4% of the time the client will be making money. The average gain per has been 18.5%. The total return versus a 10.9% total return for the SP500 since March 4th, 1957. Current signal is a buy. See, current signal is a buy. We got the buy at April 4th. And we're going to hold until the market pulls back significantly. We had a number of pullbacks, you know, 3%, 4%, 5%, but we didn't get an 8% pullback in the S&P. So, you still hold. the market goes down 8% and decline gets out. He had an amazing trade. He got in April 4th, day before the low and get out after the first 8% decline. Now what this is basically this is the model in in in an illustrated form. Um this is the this is the model on a yearly basis following these. Now the key is listen I want to make what I'm trying to show. I'm not trying to models I've heard models coming out of my ears from from uh technicians and fundamentalists in the 50 years I've been in the business. This is not the kind of model you've heard before. Not kind of model anyone in your show has ever discussed. >> All right, let's let me ask you this. So, in your 50 years in the business, what were some of the biggest problems or I guess pain points for trying to model the market that other technicians or perhaps even yourself have encountered in the past that you're trying to fix here? >> Okay. Number one, the the main problem is is emotions. Of course, we're trying to create a model where you can say the model is meant to buy when no one else buys. The model is not meant to say now things are fine. The market look good now you can buy. The market the model is meant to say things look terrible now is the time to buy. So the first thing is emotion. When you have a model you could overcome your emotions especially when you see the history. Number two is we have far more data now than I have ever had. When I started this business in 1978 you know I couldn't even get historical data. They didn't even have it. And as the years go by mainly I have to give give thanks to Ned Davis Research. I started with them in 1979 and they have really any any data I need I get from them and I have my my models built using their computer system and um we have far more data today you ever had in the past. >> Sure. Also there's been changes in the market you know now the you didn't have ETFs um you when I started in the business for quite you know for 20 30 years in the business you didn't have ETFs now markets move sort of in unison we're getting far more uh interesting signals than we ever got in the past getting far more momentum based and breath based signals than you ever had in the past and we've modeled for that as well so your question was is it is it difficult yes it's difficult part of the difficulty is just believing that it can So in other words, let's sorry, go ahead. >> The academics tell you that you can't model the market. Even technicians tell you you can't really model the market. You have to follow the trend. You can't model the market. I had to have that belief that you can model the market. Now I had the belief. All you need is three, four or five indicators that prove that the market inefficient. Once you prove the market is inefficient, then you use your brains and you use your your time to analyze the market and find as many inefficiencies as possible. If I had no evidence at all that the market was inefficient, I would not waste 10 years trying to model the market. >> Speaking of emotion, let's let's suppose I were one of your clients, uh, Milton, and I say to you, well, let's let's just rewind the clock to April this year where your, you know, your your your one of your last buy signals was triggered. So I you say to me, all right, the model's telling me hypothetically this situation. the model's telling me buy that's that's what the indicator is saying and I say well Milton we just had a major market correction uh liberation day happened you know things are looking bad like your model saying but I don't really need your model to tell me that I know things are looking really bad I don't feel confident that things are going to recover anytime soon it's just you know when things are selling off emotions are high people are still in fear mode how do you convince me your client to get out of fear mode and trust the model what's the conversation you're having qualitative >> conversation I tell you national conversation I hope my client's not listening because he might be upset with you. >> Well, just pretend I'm, you know, you're cons. There you go. >> On April 4th, I started saying, "Wow, these markets are showing indications of a low, you know, on April 4th." And then in April 9th, when the market was up uh 9% the S&P and and you had you had 100 times upside volume, downside volume. I got a a buy signal with hundreds of precedents, various buy signals, hundreds of presidents. I said, "You have to buy." And my client on April 4th when the market was down he says Milton you're saying it looks getting started over so how's that possible things are just collapsing on April 10th after the 9% rally he says Milton how can I buy now the market's up too much you sense so the point is you you can't really start thinking about the whe the market's down too much or going lower or it's up too much you have to see what has happened in the past in the past many lows are tested so you got to buy the market it's going to go up 15% pull back 9% that's normal as long as you see it happened in the past. The point is you have to base your buying on something. Everybody has to base their buying on something. You can't base your buying on the fact that the market's doing well. That's the worst thing a person could do. And you can't base your selling on the fact the market's doing poorly. That's also the worst thing you could do. Some fundamentalists try to use value. Value doesn't work. Some fundamentals try to use interest rates. Interest rates doesn't work. Some fundamentals try to use set policy. As you've seen in the last few years, tra trading on set policy also doesn't work. the market bottom in 2022 when the when the Fed was still tightening. So you know so so so uh what works what works is what I've discovered what works is analyzing the market getting the insights of the market finding aberration I've written papers on the psychology behind this and the philos philosophy behind this the point is that mark once you know the market is inefficient once you have one or two pieces of evidence that the market's inefficient it then pays to find as much evidence as possible what we found was inefficiencies it's not really inefficiency in the market it's actually I consider an efficient market because the market giving me signals of when to buy. >> What what greater efficiency than for the market to tell you now's the time to buy. >> Now, we talked about the time to buy. This this is the actual year-over-year returns for retail. So, for example, I' I've highlighted the down years in the S&P like 1962, the S&P down on a total return 8.83%. The models of 18.55%. Now, how's that possible? We don't go short. Well, the reason is because the market bottomed in early 62. We were short. were in T- belts into as the market was declining and we got into the S&P at you know at the lower as the market started rallying through up 18 versus 8% decline in ' 66 the market is down 10% we're flat up 85%. In a year like um like 74 the market is down 26.63% and our model is up 20.1%. Why? because we were out of the market from January till October while the market was declining and we got into the market on October 4th of 87 of 74 and then that's when the and the market rall 20% to up 20%. This is really something that a retail client's going to get. So this is the third thing. So number one I would try to show you the robustness of the model. It's not one model. It's we've modeled the market on the theory that markets can officially tell us when we should buy. Okay, we don't we haven't created a model to tell you precisely when to sell. So for this particular model, we'll say you're going to buy at the bottoms of the bare markets or you're going to buy when you get a buy signal. You get a multiple buy signal. You do nothing else. Just maintain your your 100% long in the S&P and you sell when the SP decline 8% and you wait. See what MB advisor MB edge tells you when will you you know wait for the next buy signal and that's when you get get long in the market. You're strictly trading S&Ps. You're not using leverage. You're not trying to find ETFs outperforming the market. You're trading the market and outperforming the market by trading the market itself. >> Well, uh, Milton, my last question is, are you interested in applying this model to other asset classes? I think a lot of my viewers would like to see the same thing for Bitcoin, gold, oil, for example, just to name a few. >> You know, Bitcoin, gold, Bitcoin don't have the kind of robust indicators that that the stock market has. You know, you don't have the advanced decline line in bit in Bitcoin. And you don't have um you don't have uh you don't have corporate earnings that can affect markets. you know, you know, the the the the the trick, let's put it the the major asset question in the world is the stock market. In the capitalist system, the stock market will gain over the long term. People are always afraid of the bare markets. I'm saying I'm also afraid of a bare market, but don't be afraid of the corrections. Buy at the right time. Mark's down 5%. Don't worry about it. You had multiple 5% declines during the bull market. Market's down 3%. Don't worry about it. you the head the talking heads on TV are telling you there's a depression coming ignore it once the market's down 8% say you know let me get out now and let's see what MB advisor tells you to do let's see what the market tells us to do >> some people are concerned maybe when it market goes down more than 8% let's say 20% or even 50% like you know a financial crisis we're going to get Japan which is to say the S&P is not going to recover until 20 years later but you know that's today's market for models let me show you Japan you mentioning Japan it's a total fallacy. Look, let me show Japan. Let's see. Uh, let me just show you something. Japan. People say Japan was a terrible market. Japan was a wonderful market. Look at this. Let me just get Japan for a second. One. >> Yeah. The Nikki. I'm sorry. Let me do right. Let me get the Nikkay. And let me show you why it's been a wonderful market. During the period, it was down for 25 years. Let me show you this market. Let me show you this market. Amazing market. Japan market. For people to argue that you couldn't make in Japan is absolutely ridiculous. So, we'll go back to 1989 when the bare market began, >> December 1989. Right there. We'll go there and we're going to look you make a lock scale so you'll be able to see the moves better. >> Okay. >> Okay. You lock scale. Now, watch this. I'm going to show you something in the J. You see, you couldn't make money in Japanese market. Let's say you got a buy signal over here. You >> made 18%. Let's say you got a buy signal over here. You made 29% and you got out the next 8% and you won't get back in until here. And the next AP you made you made 36%. So you don't need a market to go straight up for what we're doing. You need a market to do what markets do be volatile fluctuate crash during a recession recession depression deflations rally during inflationary periods. The Japanese market one of the greatest markets in which people made money. People I worked with some of the greatest traders on Wall Street made a lot of money in Japan while it was declining because look at these amazing 135% retracement rally. I mean look at these amazing rallies you had in Japan. Unfortunately for me, the S&P isn't as volatile. I wish the S&P would be as volatile as Japan because then our buy signal will gain far more before the next >> just apply it to the small cap then I guess Russell. I don't know. >> Well, yeah, small. Yeah. Well, Russell it might make sense too. But um we won't we model the S&P and you could trade the Russell based on the S&P model. >> We didn't model the Russell itself. Um anyway, basically um I just wanted to give give you some idea of what we're doing as far as the current market. Let me show you a little bit about the current market, okay? Because people >> people want to know what we did. And I said for retail, the retail clients, which we don't have yet, would have been long on April 4th. It' still be long. No question about it. And you know, with the average only one one roundtrip trade every one and a half years, maybe one and a quarter years going back to 1957. Retail investors aren't interested in looking at the phones all day and see what the market is doing and find out what the token heads are doing. They want to be long the S&P during the bull market and out during the bulk of beer markets. And that's what we're trying to do by having model the market. However, let's see where we are. What we were saying to our clients. So, let's look at this. November 20th was was the day of the low forced to position long. See, I say forced because emotionally I didn't want to position long. But my model told me to position long. And these are not the same models I'm showing you. These are institutional models which are short-term oriented, not just long-term oriented. And um so we um why did we do this? So we had an oscillated an oversold oscillated extreme and and we had the the VIX relative was to 20 the average was at sixth highest reading in 40 years which means with the S&P down less than 4% the VIX buyers were panicking the option buyers were panicking while VIX relative average is the highest six highest reading in 40 years so that told us basically that the market is not acting as it would but it's going to continue down another 15% immediately. Now, what we said was here's the next one. Volatility oversold. The same thing that same day, November 20th. This report came out the following day. We showed this. This is the one day over 100 day volatility in the S&P. Okay? In other words, the volatility on November 20th was 409% greater than the average volatility over the last 100 days. And these red times are in the past where it made sense to buy stocks. We showed the table. So, basically, we had reason to buy stocks. We were short. We had reason to cover the shorts. We we we were actually with uh so basically um now yesterday we wrote the following group get these for institutions institutions pay us you know retail clients won't be able to get this type of information it's only for institutions yesterday was a minor new high no breakaway action had a new high in the bank new high in the Russell new high in the SP600 S&P failed to make a new high as the NASDAQ did but the underlying action was not breakaway didn't see the type of upside volume didn't see the type of upside breath especially our 050% breath measurement did not show any extremes. So we felt you know since we said in our previous report I'll write it right here. You um let me show you what I wrote on the bottom over here. I wrote uh where did I write that we expect at this time we cannot at this time consider the gains off November 20 low as anything more than an oversold bounce of little technical significance for the intermediate term. In other words, we got a bounce. S&P is up 5%. Russell was up 8%. Banks up 13%. But since you don't see break reaction at the highs, it might strictly be a test to the high and the market's going to go lower. So institutions, uh, we're still 100% long for institution, not leverage long. We got long November 20th, but it's quite possible next few days, we'll start lowering our exposure. But for the retail, for the millions of millions of retailers out there, if you borders on October on August on April 4th or April 5th or April 9th and you're holding the market, don't worry about what Miltonberg tells his institutional investors. They're a different class. You want to make money in the long term and if you can just hold your longs till the market's at 8%. Then you get out and this way you're low. You're not going to be sitting on your positions doing a 50% market decline and you just wait for the next buy signal. >> But institutions again we're cautious now. >> Um I'll show you our technicals at the high. Somebody else we look at too. I'll show you something else. It should be in here. Yeah. This is it. You see >> real estate every major market peak since 1966. For example, the SP declined 22% in 66, 36% in 68, uh, uh, 48% in 74, 29, NASDAQ declined 9 29% in 98. This is a list of all the bare market declines. And this is the technical data that occurred at the day of the peak. Okay. So, we tra every time the market's at a new high, we we we reissue this report. It's four pages. And we say if it's yellow, it's consistent with what you've seen at previous mark market highs. If it's pink, it means the it's inconsistent. Usually during a bull market, you see many, many pinks. Even though the marks make a new high, the breath is too strong. The number of two highs is too great. But for example, at the last high on December 4th when the Russell made its high, this is not this is through through not including yesterday's action. The S&P only had 24 new highs. Okay? So that's very consistent what you see at the market peaks. the market in a bull market you see 100 new wise 150 new wise or you we took it we track trend we track AD lines and so on and so forth so there's a lot more to what I do than what I'm showing you I'm just trying to show you a way of modeling the markets something that I don't think anyone else has ever done I don't think anyone else ever attempted the only reason I attempted I gave away 10 years of my life to try to uh analyze these markets believe me it was a lot of work I didn't use AI and didn't have AI at the time and AI wouldn't even help I really I really followed the market using the data from one day to the next to the next to the next to the next seeing what the data showed me visibly using my my own eyes to do it till I was able to model this market well I and uh and now I I think I' I success I I think I've been pretty successful and again I would have attempted it if I felt the market was efficient once you can find one two or three inefficiencies in the market you know the mark's inefficient and it pays to delve deeper and that's what I did and I just showed you really a little bit of what I've done because all I did was show you what signal from April 4th to August 13th if I show you what signal from 1957 to 2025 it would take weeks and you know there's really no way to do that. >> Okay, David, I hope I made myself clear. >> We're we're we're kind of we're going to wrap up here but uh that was yeah that was a very good thrilled explanation. Thank you very much Milton. We can uh we can save the rest for another discussion but um uh tell us where we can find your work right now. >> So uh yeah the point being we have a we're on Twitter atberg milton um I think it's called atberg milton. We also have a website ww.mmilenberg.com. We have a email is info@miltonberg.com and hopefully the next few days we'll start we'll publish our retail letter which will not be uh you not going to have all the information. It's going to be a buy signal and going to hold for a year and a half hopefully or for a year or six months. It's not going to be there won't be much information the retail letter. We're only going to charge $10 a month. We might have an higher class maybe $1,000 a month for someone between retail and institutional. But right now I just want to get this across. I want I think it's very valuable and I want to just keep it for myself. I want to try to make money on it, but I also want to share it with the public because I think uh um most of the public out there really um uh that you know they get it they have the IRA and they get in the S&P or they get into ETFs. I think this would be a very good product for them. They don't have to worry. They don't have to lose sleep at night and they know they're invested in the greatest companies in America, the S&P 500. And when there's a beer market, they'll generally be out of the beer market. Okay, that's basically it. >> Okay, great. Thank you very much. We'll put the links down below so you can follow Milton. And uh thanks again, Milton. We'll speak again soon. And thank you for watching. And don't forget to like, subscribe.