Are Markets Delusional, or is this Time Truly Different? – Peak Prosperity
Summary
Market Regime: The discussion frames current markets in a late-cycle “delusion” phase with liquidity-driven gains and heavy retail FOMO despite weakening fundamentals.
Fixed Income View: Echoing Paul Tudor Jones, the guest is bearish on long-duration bonds and favors being short the back end of the curve due to worsening fiscal math and inflation risks.
Precious Metals: Bullish stance on gold and silver as hedges against inflation/sovereign risk, with a preference to buy dips over the next six months.
AI Assessment: Skeptical on near-term AI profitability and macro impact, citing deflationary job displacement and valuations ahead of sustainable business cases.
Argentina Opportunity: Positive on Argentina’s reform momentum under Javier Milei, noting expected strong GDP growth and a major Vaca Muerta oil ramp that could shift the country into an energy exporter.
Global Currencies/BRICS: Flags coordinated weakness across BRICS currencies (ruble, rupee, real, yuan), framing it as economic warfare and a key macro risk backdrop.
US Equity Concentration: Notes the US at 73% of MSCI World, warning of eventual rotation/reversion as other underfunded markets improve.
Consumer/Healthcare Angle: Highlights consumer backlash against processed foods (e.g., Kellogg’s Froot Loops) and hopes for dismantling monopolies/regulatory capture to unlock innovation and lower costs.
Transcript
nothing in this program should be considered investment advice it is for educational purposes only please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full is the Deep State going to you know like rats turn on each other and try to be the first to to come up with a plea deal and and give up are they going to eat each other up or they going to fight to the brutal end between now and January [Music] 20th hello and welcome to this edition of Finance you I am your host Chris Martinson here again with Paul ker of ker wealth management hey Paul how are you today hi Chris I'm doing well good to see you again great uh so much to talk about we're going to be talking about markets obviously things Finance related um got a bunch of stuff going on I want to start here with this this is the S&P over time you and I talked about something mysterious happening back here on October 30th it's just been that's ruler straight Advance barely counted as a correction huge Advance this got a little dodgy for a second but it's since broken out again and by the way Paul this is kind of a global thing um you know and we could note that the German Dax breaking out smashing through above 20,000 and and I say that with that incredulity because my economic data Paul coming out of Germany it is smells like rotten eggs um it's not good layoffs uh bad earning you name it so I I don't know how to make sense of that except in my old school way which is I guess there's ample liquidity more buyers than sellers that's all I can figure it sure seems that way I don't understand at all what's taking place in Germany and and because of just what's taking place their their economy has been gutted now in the US I still believe that that we're kind of in that speculative phase but a lot of it makes sense cuz I think more than 60% of the population actually has hope again that that that this Trump Administration is going to break up the monopolies you know those that are in the Ivory Tower closest to the money printers and closest to the regulation process that have been protecting monopolies you know and of course you you've shared what Mark andreon had talked about on The Joe Rogan com podcast you know just and I was kind of surprised by that because I yeah it's not that often that I'm not cynical enough and uh so but I do see the hope that's out there I see people that have hope that the small businesses are going to have a chance again and if we get the with the Chevron ruling and get regulation out of the way and and the monopolies don't have this unfair Advantage if the rules to the game come back to the same then we're going to have Innovations the middle class is going to come back we're going to have small business Innovation so I get the hope I don't think the markets are going to continue to be as resilient going forward maybe maybe not but I don't understand any anything about what's taking place in Germany yet CU there's not been any major Innovation it just seems to be liquidity or pure speculation yeah you know I've seen this this isn't my first rodeo so Paul I analyze almost everything through that liquidity gauge now remember the stock market is supposed to be this forward discounting machine yes and it's the sum of all this intelligence but I I actually think that was true ER back in the day when when there were humans involved can we be honest about this 90% of all the trade that go through that drive the market this way and that way have nothing to do with humans except for the humans that programmed the algorithms that circulate through the silica chips you you know I know but they don't do greed and fear those algorithms Paul they don't remember you know all of the technical analysis that you cut your teeth on that I did too it was there because if you peered at the charts you understood basically the sum of all fears and hopes and greed right I don't know that algorithms do that kind of stuff they don't really care no they don't but the question that I have Chris is those algorithms um the programs are put together by by humans with the weaknesses that we have right so the question is is is that built into the algorithms or is it just the fact that they're going off of past historical data and this happened in the past so this is what's going to happen in the future so you know that kind of brings to mind something that I had here to share if I can find it yes this um the cycle of Market emotions and I know people have seen this you know time and time again but it still applies so if you can see this I want to give credit to the Twitter post so Finance aot um Finance lot you know what stage are we at now what would you anticipate the stage we're in right now Chris oh we're we're on near the top over there on the left somewhere past greed we're in delusion maybe we're in agreement I'm thinking we're in the delusion area yeah that feels about right yeah so for those of you listening you know bull markets tend to to go through these phases so the the first phase is the stealth phase that's where the smart money starts to move well to put that in perspective you know a lot of your insiders are are net sellers right now um so we're starting to see the smart money is not necessarily accumulating but then the bull market takes off once the smart money moves in then you get in the awareness phase and you'll typically have the first sell off in that awareness phase because everybody's still scared then you start to enter that Mania phase you know it starts to get media attention then you get some enthusiasm that's where the public really starts to join and then you get the greed and then you get the delusion and quite frankly the delusion is understandable within the us right now there's a lot of hope that things are going to change but we have a tremendous amount of hurdles to overcome and then the final stage which I don't think we're there yet but but if this Market runs into the spring I think it's going to be hey here's the new paradigm and that's the blowoff phase and the point of of greatest risk quite frankly so so I'm I'm in agreement with you I think we're in the delusion phase right now yeah it's that's how I see it but you know these these algorithms Paul they're remorseless it's kind of like you know if I had to stand at a Machine Gun Nest and that was a tank shooting at me I'm going to display a lot of fear right but I could program an algorithm that would just sit there and keep shooting and it wouldn't Flinch right that's right M you know it because it just doesn't it's I don't know I I you know it's hard to get a number but last I heard uh something like 75 to 80% of all trades on the market were by high frequency trading firms they're not even holding these stocks Paul because of good earnings or delusions or stories or narratives they're holding them for about 10 microsc to a few hundred milliseconds mhm right they'll they'll continue as long as the mar Market momentum continues to go up they just keep buying regardless of there's you know there's the threat of escalation of War anything of that nature they just don't care no no they don't care now um I'd like to introduce uh the views of Paul tutor Jones pretty famous pretty legendary investor kind of guy and he's introducing a term here cab which I I wasn't that familiar with but um kab is is that state of agreement that EX exists between WWF performers and the audience where everybody knows it's fake but they agree not to talk about that that's that's kab okay that's that state of suspended disbelief that exists within the pro wrestling world all right so let me just make sure I got this dialed up loud enough so we can hear this and Go Firm that I've never heard of called kayab and in wrestling parlance that represents the unspoken Unwritten tcid agreement between the wrestlers and the fans about the illusion that's going on in the ring the suspension of of disbelief that what's going on in the ring is actually uh we know it's scripted and we know it's a performance but they ask us to think it's genuine and real and that's what you think this is yeah we're in an economic kayab right now and it's not just United states were in it in the in the UK in France Greece Italy Japan Japan being the biggest of all it's this economic cavab and the question is is after this election will we have a Minsky moment here in the United States and US debt markets will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there's a point of recognition that what's going to happen or or what they're talking about is actually fiscally impossible financially impossible so are you betting on a Minsky moment I am clearly uh not going to own any fixed income and I'm going to be short the back end uh of fixed income because it's just completely the wrong price H I had not heard that and poter tutor Jones is brilliant for those of you that don't know him yeah economic kayab so so so two things to decode for people the Minsky moment himman Minsky termed this thing that that sort of I'm going to paraphrase it badly but the way I understand it Paul and add to this if if you can um that that everything sort of persists along until that moment when people recognize that it wasn't what they thought it was and then you get this these sudden sharp shocks to the system a Minsky moment is sort of like everybody deciding that the dollar is way overvalued and running for the exits all at once and the exits only going to be this big I'm holding my fingers up in a little circle so um uh but he it's interesting he took that uh saying listen this kayab is is existing across all these economies but he interpreted that to say I'm not holding fixed income yes how do you read that yes well that tells me that that in his estimation that the fixed income Market is completely in underpriced which you know we've always been told that the bond Traders are the smartest individuals in the room and they are they they really are but the market the bond market and his assessment I'm assuming based on what he says has not priced um the long-term risk to the capital from default whether that's corporate or inflationary pressures from government spending because something is going to have to break so that would be my assumption what what would your assumption be Chris that it's clearly obvious uh regardless of whatever might come in with Trump and the department of governmental efficiency with Elon and VC regardless or whatever they might do like when you really peel it back Paul there's not a lot you can do cuz when you look at um what we'll call fixed expenditures to the US government compared to discretionary there ain't that much discretionary um you know and so you're not going to do you can't just decide not to pay the 1.25 trillion interest payments this year that's fixed if you don't pay that worse things result so that's getting paid Social Security Medicare Medicaid not much you can do about that stuff you could try and find some efficiency in there I suppose but um you know that's long and slow uh I guess you could cut defense heavy um but of course that has its own economic impacts and Congressman scream and all the Ron and locky Martin lobbyist scream and that that's a hard fight too so it's so I think what he's basically saying is look we have a fiscal problem coming and I don't think the Bond Market has recognized it and therefore I don't want to if anything I'm not not only am I not owning these I'm going to be constructively short the long end of this thing meaning you know the 10 Paper 20 year 30e paper whatever those pieces are he wants to be short that that that's where he's at now guys like Paul tutor talk in their book all the time right you know right let's leave open the possibility Paul that he's saying that but buying the long end of the curve always leave that possibility open that is a possibility that is Poss but but I'm absolutely terrified of the long end and I don't you know just because of the fundamentals of what's taking place out there if the Trump Administration isn't able to pull this off perfectly or you know what's going to happen within within the Deep state right now I mean it's clear that that they're coming after they're trying to to have full disclosure lay it before the American people so is the Deep State going to you know like rats turn on each other and try to be the first to to come up with a plea deal and and give up are they going to eat each other up or are they going to fight to the brutal end between now and January 20th and if there's if there's if the reality comes out that our liabilities are far greater than what are known right now which is another possibility then that could be really devastating to the to the long end because if we get into a situation where the government has to print that there's no other option or they choose to print right um then that's going to absolutely crush the you know longer end of the yield curve and that means rates are higher and and and he would be right to be short those long end now in the short run looks to me like we're going to see a rally which may be a tradable rally in the 20 year I don't know that's only Prof for professionals only not a recommendation but um you know when you look out longer it's I I would lean to the to the side that he is I'm more concerned about our fixed income portfolios navigating the days ahead correctly which we have the rules in place they have their rules in place we're shorter on the yield curve right now I'm more concerned about that over the next 3 to 5 years than I am the equity side of the portfolio well I honestly Paul I mean I understand how it could happen from fiduciary certain aspects but if you sat me down and said would you buy 30-year government paper at 4.5% interest I'm like no nope no I have to be confident that that 30-year paper is going to be worth what they say it's worth by the year 2054 not a chance no not a chance there's no way there's too much risk I mean the bid Administration already lit the fuse for the bricks to come up with their alternative payment system whether they roll out the unit or not and I thought it was quite interesting the first thing that did you hear about Trump U and his threat to to the bricks if they roll if they roll roll out their own currency that it'll be 100% tariffs yep and the only thing that I could think of at that point is we are to the point in our country where we have to threaten with Force you know verbally from that standpoint that if you do this you know we're we're going to do everything that we can to fight you tooth and nail well with with a couple of things I mean he can say that but let's get down to reality real quick we are 100% import dependent on China for about 18 critical minerals right gallium geranium tum like like just pretty much 100% also uh we get something stupid like half of our uranium comes from Russia so that's fine but you know the uranium the nuclear power plant industry is going to be dude you just made our our fuel go up 100% you know that's going to have impacts right obviously so it's one thing to say 100% tariffs it's another when you get down to the details that's right well and think about the inflationary impacts that that's going to happen have if let's say he actually does that that's going to be highly inflationary until we can rebuild within the United States and then that's going to be inflationary in itself because our labor is a lot more expensive than what it is at least for now in the other countries that are out there so there's going to be a period of time and that inflationary pressure would absolutely destroy the long end of the curve yeah so um so we're we're in a very tough situation to where it's going to have to be navigated perfectly and with God's grace to come out of this uh without without any bumps or bruises or or catastroph catastrophic events yeah well it certainly requires being Nimble and you know having a risk-managed approach I I I got to tell you Paul this is embarrassing but probably every other night for the past three or four weeks I wake up at 2 in the morning I just have to turn my phone on I just look at the Futures I'm just like has anything happened cuz I'm kind of expecting something to happen and nothing happens nothing nothing and that nothing actually alarms me more than a something a 5 or 10% correction would actually make me feel better but we have things like the oresnik Hazel you know non-nuclear tip ballistic missile being fired and the market just kind of goes up you know um it it just it's just absolutely feels like you said delusional right where a delusion is there's reality and you're disconnected from it that's delusional so I feel like these markets don't have much grounding in what I would call geopolitical risk risky risk cycle risk cuz we used to have these things called Cycles I'm old enough to remember these things yes I do you that was that that was one of the hardest things for me from a nerve uh from a follow of the rules of our strategy but you're like this cycle is really overextended it's really overextended it's really overextended and it and it seems like these Cycles have gone away due to the government intervention that's occurred in the past and trained investors like Pavlov's dog or the algorithms let's put it that way yeah yeah now speaking to your um your chart where you said under that delusional part it was sort of you said I think there was a stealth then there was a smart money and then retail right retail was the third big block of that so again you and I have talked about this in the past um but this is from uh sober look and it looks like uh retail has never been this giddy on stocks they have not never been this certain about things um so so that's that's the retail participation and this is an astonishing Pile in how do you get a U-turn like I mean that's a what happened in in late 2022 to cause that to happen fear of missing out and you know so I think what happened late 2022 and I think this has been something that's just slowly worked on the psyche of so many individuals because Chris they get to the point where where passive money flows are are they're they are not price sensitive buyers it goes to work no matter what so the employment's been pretty good investors are are hurting into the S&P 500 there's all kinds of metrics that are saying you know the US in relation to the rest of the world markets is the the most distorted that it's ever been so the one one theory that I have that's changed I think this cycle is going to end with the us being un likee Japan in the late uh 1980s nobody ever believed that it would change M but they they had the largest capitalization of of global stocks and then 35 years later you know it it took the market wasn't even back to where it was in 1989 I think this cycle is going to end that way for us equities but I believe it's also I mean look the FED stepped in with quantitative easing and what is it qe1 and 203 or operation twist was around 2013 then there was qe1 QE2 I forgot how many quantitative easing so they keep stepping in all Fallen apart in September of 2019 but yes thankfully Co came along and gave him an opportunity to throw five Trill into the into the kitty yeah so they cut interest rates and you've got more computers trading now than what you had back in 200 13 so the computers are studying on looking at Market behavior when the fed intervened or they cut rates and then poof it's Off to the Races and then in late 2022 it really looked like the market was going to start to come apart it finds a bottom I think Yellen started doing some things with treasury which caused liquidity to pick back up again and then now you've got a lot of investors especially retail that are just like hey I've been watching this thing run I thought that it was going to end I can't take it anymore I'm going to get in so so there's a huge amount of fear of missing out that's in the psychology of the retail investor right now there's a lot of greed there's a lot of delusion because nobody's really paying attention to the weakness that's potentially under the surface and what makes it hard managing money is Chris we don't know if this is going to run to January 6 is it going to run into April is this going to be like the late 1990s to where Trump's able to do enough initially to where the economy holds up a lot stronger or or are we going to get this Minsky moment where where buns crater in value yields jump and then all of a sudden the market like it did in 1973 says uhoh and then we have this 40 50 60% decline I mean mathematically we should but the question is and what's so hard in managing money right now you got to play the game by the rules that are forced upon you and you got to participate some because what if it lasts three years but this is a highly risky rally and there's all kinds of indications around the edge that the professionals are using this delusion and fear of missing out to offload their shares onto the average retail investor and so I believe for the average retail investor this is probably the most dangerous Market that we have seen in my 26 year career well the the former big pillars so this was easier to analyze when I was younger because there was there was Autos homes and Retail right and if you you just understood those three things you directionally got pretty much what was happening now obviously the government is a very large player in this market um they are a big big chunk of the economy so now you got it that's a fourth leg of the stool and then there's all this other aiee stuff you know AI this and that which we've talked about before again we'll see what what that really turns into but speaking of the retail I mean the the Housing section from the coasy letter new home sales in the most recent report dropped by 128,000 in October to 610,000 lowest in couple of years um significantly below expectations of selling 725,000 new homes you can see the little tick down there not an emergency not an emergency but it's leading to not an emergency this is an emergency but you can clearly see that uh the number of new completed single family houses for sale has been spiking pretty hard here with the rise in interest rates uh no surprise there but still you know normally this would have been something you could look at and go well that that's a sign of economic weakness right there um you're not selling houses they're stacking up doesn't seem to matter anymore I'm not sure what there must be other legs on the stool I don't understand haven't found them yet well I I think it doesn't matter just because the average individual thinks that everything is going to be instantly fixed over the next 12 months I I I really do believe that um and and I know look he won the popular vote but I think it's well more than 60 to 70% of the pop just based on my observation that have all this hope that things are going to be great and Trump's going to be able to solve all of our problems immediately but there's there's some massive hurdles to overcome so that that optimism is an indication of the delusion that we're in because it's okay to be optimistic I'm optimistic if the Chevron you know chevron's done if if we release all this information for the American people instead of our our politicians serving themselves um they moved back to serving the American populace Chris The Innovation that we're going to have come out when these monopolies are no longer protected is going to be incredible because you've been in the business World monopolies don't want Innovation they want to milk every penny that they can out of the product that that they have until they're forced to do something else because it costs money to change that process and reinvest back in So if we can if we can eliminate the protection around the monopolies our quality of life I believe as US citizens are going to increase dramatically we're going to have better products small businesses middle class going to come thriving back again but at the same time that's going to change because when You' got what is it I can't remember the numbers right now but the you know the top stocks are 35 to 37% of the S&P 500 so if their protection is gone then then that's going to cause a a major difference in the overall uh markets and the market should be lower at some point but the average investor is ignoring that right now and they're they're spending like it's going to be all sunshine and rainbows because they have this optimism but they are not taking the time to really think about the risks Associated under the surface that could cause us to stumble and fall and and you know have some bumps and bruises so I think a big area is going to be uh particularly I'm really looking forward to getting some rationality back in our Healthcare System and we're going to be having a a food webinar coming up because you know here's what we've learned Paul we've learned that in the United States the FDA has been absolutely in bed with industry and has just allowed any practice to go through to the point that um you know we've got toxins in our Foods various dyes and colors that don't need to be there that Europe doesn't use that you could use natural colorings like beet juice instead of red dye number 10 whatever um so we've learned all of that and and uh I'm hopeful that we can get rid of a lot of unnecessary healthc care spending now of course this is going to hit the farm industry but just to show you the power of this already did you hear this it turns out that Froot Loop sales are down over 50% week over week just because of that news that came out about all of that RFK jior got on there put a little thing out showed a package up he's like why is all this junk in fro loops and parents caught on and it went vir this is not something you're going to read about in the mainstream news cuz their job is to protect the sales of this company um you know Kellogg got to protect Kellogg despite the fact Kellogg's inarguably been putting stuff in their cereal that's indefensible like why why why why put these nasty chemicals in there well you already said it Paul because they have a monopoly on it and because they can nobody's forced them to spend the extra half a penny per box to do it the right way mhm that's why you you know when you shared that the only thing that I could think of is in the Bible where it says my people die for lack of knowledge and and all that secrecy and all that protection so now the knowledge comes out points it out to parents and the ones that care about their kids immediately make a decision to do something different that that's what we need that's what America is supposed to be and that's why the truth is so important and I hadn't heard that but it doesn't surprise me because I'm I'm starting to see of course Britney one of one of my team just had her second child McKenzie's got uh four kids and they're having these conversations as you've been talking about food webinar and things I've shared with them at the annual Summit and they're reading labels now paying attention sharing information with each other and it's hopeful and especially with the with the food webinar you come you have coming up I cannot wait to to sit in and and listen and learn well it's important stuff I mean if you haven't got your health you know none of it matters so and there's ways we can be lots healthier so um so we we'll see how that all turns out but again it you're right this this that's what that's why I sort of object to watching whoever it is I know they have it's very important to them markets have to go up right and they spend a lot of time massaging that and it's a whole machinery and and I get their their rationale and maybe I'd have the same one sitting in their hot seat Paul I don't know but I look at it and it's just not the truth right you know the truth is letting real people sort of hash stuff out and and settle on what they consider to be reality at that point in time so so we have a lot of unreality out there I I worry that people are going to be harmed for lack of access to information yes that's why I do what I do right it's like yeah this information's out there that's a ridiculously important role I mean the lives that the people that I've talked to hundreds of people around the nation that that say you saved their lives with the information that you shared with them in Co you may not get to hear that all the time but I hear all the different areas that you've shared information that's made life-changing impacts on those who have have listened to you that's a that's a big deal um you know Chris one thing that I'm concerned about is especially with with Biden comes out and says I will not pardon my son I will not pardon my son I will not pardon my son and I know I know I'm going down a rabbit Trail but I'm headed headed to a point here then all of a sudden he comes out with this blanket pardon and I want to table that for a minute because it's just absolutely unbelievable so what I'm worried about is we know how the media acts it's all on technicalities right they that oh Biden created all these jobs after the covid restart you know he claims all these jobs and wants to make himself look great compared to all the Presidents in history but a lot of it was just restarting the economy again okay in technicality they were jobs what I'm concerned about is is are there forces right now that are driving this Market into the end of the year and into the inauguration that once Trump gets there Lord willing he does um the rug comes out then all of a sudden you've got the next three to four years where the media doesn't change their ways and they're like hey you know these stats were the best in the world while Biden and the Democrats were in there and this is what you're facing now I just see all of this planning and deception and and telling I'm gonna tell you one thing and I'm doing something else and maybe I'm being overly cynical because I I mean it looks like the momentum is is is going to be positive in end of the year all indicators are are pointing to that yeah we need a correction but but that's one of the concerns that I have in the background is this all setting up for some technicality to where as soon as Trump gets in there whatever forces are are causing this delusional momentum in the markets um get rug pulled and then the media forces spend the next three to four years saying oh you had it so much better before you had it so much better before I don't know that's just a thought that came to mind what's your thought about that well um look let's be completely honest uh Trump is going to be inheriting a box of lies yeah they were lying about the job market right they were lying about the strength of the econ economy they were lying about inflation they were lying about all of it who knows what we'll find if we really dig under all of that right um and and you mentioned you know the whole jobs thing like oh look at all the jobs that that Biden created presidents don't create jobs in the private sector but they can they can't influence jobs at the at the federal sector so ly Alden put this up just the other day would you look at this billions of dollars that are spent on um you know interest payments you look at this you look at this explosion right here right mhm well the federal jobs has almost the exact same explosion during that same rate if you look at total federal jobs over time they really like I think we piled on like another one and a half almost two million jobs in the last uh few years here so at a minimum if I was just coming in to try and rationalize all this I would say you know what we're just we're just rewinding whoever you hired I don't care what department you are I don't care whether you have contracts on these people um whoever you hired since 2020 just undo it it just start there just we're rewinding right and don't make me mad because I'll make you rewind to 2015 right you know just get it done that's good but you look at this and and just the shape of that chart that ought to really scare people Paul it really should because that's just this looks runaway and you know I thought you probably saw it too today we saw that the Federal Reserve is putting out their first trial balloons to walk back the idea that they're going to be more straight cuts they're having a hard time justifying because inflation's on the rise again and stock markets are all-time highs and H powering higher it's kind of hard to make an a strong statement that we're having you know that we're non-permissive like we have a liquidity problem you know my man my man Sven Henrik points out here you know policy is still restrictive enough this in purple this is jnk and the blue is is the S&P 500 and look at this Paul tick for tick junk bonds high quality stocks same story yeah that's not restrictive policy that's the fed's just got the flood gaze woohoo and uh now they're starting to make their first signs that they're like well people have started to notice maybe we shouldn't cut quite as quickly um and so those are already beginning to come off the table a little bit which means just to back it right up that this isn't going to be correcting anytime soon cuz this is being driven by the rate of interest that the US government principally on the short end of the curve has to pay and if they're not going to cut then this isn't going to come down this is going to keep doing that um why because the government's adding two trillion of new debt that needs to be serviced to this pile every single year so even if it even if it was at 4% if you could somehow get paper out the door at 4% you sold all 10 years 4% of one trillion is another 40 billion a year mhm so another 80 billion would go onto this uh which would be a pretty good chunk minimum well and most debt is pulling future consumption forward so you're spending your future today by borrowing money now if you invest into something that can generate a tremendous amount of income that's great you're investing into manufacturing where it can produce more than the debt that you're paying but all I can think of in that chart right there is you know I've been doing some due diligence for for some clients that are looking to buy some businesses so in that due diligence you're you're trying to pour through everything that you can because every business owner in the three to four years prior to selling the business is going to do everything they can to paint those books as good as possible if I saw a debt chart like that on any business that a client was wanting to invest into you know what I'd tell them Chris I'd say look you I'd take a chance on somebody else buying this but how about you just sit back and wait till they they get into financial trouble and go buy them for pennies on the dollar when they have to go into bankruptcy because because that's not a chart that I would be aggressively you recommending any client aggressively buying I'd wait I'd wait till the inevitable pain and the consequences of their decisions were were came to fruition and then take advantage of buying it so you're not stuck with it Corrections can happen it's fine I actually like them takes the Deadwood out you know mhm I actually I'm this guy I thought GM should have been allowed to go under back in the day um and they're like oh we would lose so much like well Elon showed you could come along and create a whole new car company U you know if you had a new innovator come in and I mean honestly I think somebody ought to just say whoever built the 2005 Toyota Camry hire them because those things won't die dude those things they're still on the road they're so boring you go out every morning they turn on and they go where they're supposed to go and that's the of the story right that's the that's the whole thing you know they operate and I'm sure they're stolen but you know they're not the first car that somebody looks to steal so there's a good chance in a bad area that you can come out and still get in the car so yeah yeah yeah that 2005 Camry that that is like the dragonfly of car Evolution right like no we got it like don't even change it just just keep making those you know until somebody exceeds that level of of reliability yes hey um one thing I did want to share too so Toby Costa um and I like him I know you've referenced him more in the past he he points out you know and I've talked about this before about how the US has just been you know accounting for the large majority it's been the only game in town of the major indexes basically since 2008 what for the past 16 years it's up dramatically and I I can show that chart in a minute but he says US Stocks currently account for 73% of the SCI World index the highest single country waiting ever recorded in its history and course the overwhelming dominance of us equities have attracted the majority of global Capital leaving the rest of the world largely overlooked and underfunded you know at what point does the tide shift we have no clue but look at this chart so this is uh as of October November the 27th 73% compared to all of the rest of the countries of the world so you know one thing that our strategy is designed to do that I'm I'm waiting patiently until the day that that it tells us to shift our focus is when the US is in the lead and you're winning overweight the us but when the day comes that some of those other countries take off and those other economies take off then you can underweight the US and overweight the others but think about that you know when capital's easy you can be sloppy you can be lazy you don't have to run everything efficiently and fine but the rest of these countries in the world not all of them I mean we look at what Germany's doing but you look at South America some of the bricks and these others Portugal's been quite amazing what they've been um Poland Portugal what they've been doing has been quite amazing so they're fine-tuned machine so whenever this this bubble and this this chasing of us equities cuz they're you know now it's there is no alternative back when interest rates low buy equities because of Tina there is no alternative now everybody's saying the Tina is you got to buy us equities because there is no alternative it's unsustainable it really is we don't know when it breaks but again for those investors who are adaptive it's going to be the opportunity of a lifetime some something freaked out I don't know why but the Federal Reserve is desperately afraid of a correction and we almost had one in October of 23 but then it just woke up one night literally I was one of those 2:30 in the morning Chang I'm see the green on my Futures I'm like what's happening so somebody at 2:30 in the morning decided that's enough of that nonsense and we went the other direction but it didn't it wasn't just a wasn't just a little thing so again the Coes letter here talking about not just the strongest stock market we've had in a while but in decades S&P up 26.5% this year be on track for best annual performance in 26 years Paul this year like of all the things happening this year I'm like uh this is our best year ever like try and make sense of that fundamentally but again that doesn't matter at this stage um because we're in a different part of the story but since that October low the S&P is now up an incredible 47% here all those years going back since 1998 every year tracked as a gray squiggle and here's this year on top of it it's now the best ever at this time of the year and might finish as the best stock market ever since 1998 that is wild isn't that wild it is especially with the backdrop yeah well what happened after 1998 that momentum carried for another two years but then we had the 47% decline from 2000 2003 rallied back to even had the 57% decline in 2008 and the S&P 500 went sideways from 20 000 to 2014 late 2013 so you know it was all sunshine and rainbows until it wasn't and I I just don't see how we don't you know this cycle is going to be different my concern is is that we're going to break every historical record depending upon you know what happens over the next 6 12 24 months but um um you know fundamentals are going to come back and reality is going to come back into play at some point in the future future for now we have to participate really with fear and trembling So speaking of the bricks you know we we you know as you know I track a lot of things because I think everything connects and so at Peak Prosperity I'm often tracking things like what's happening in Ukraine or what's going on in the oil markets or how these things connect and and so you know I was very worried there for a while Paul because we saw the US and the UK and then France dialing up to just shoot long-range missiles into Russia and I thought that was a bad idea yes uh because I think I'm allowed to have that opinion and so uh yesterday I find out that Tucker Carlson's back in Moscow because he's going to go straight to the source and he found out while he was there that Jake Sullivan cut off all contact between the US and Russia over two years ago we have no back Channel diplomacy no front door diplomacy nothing no communication and we're lobbing missiles in to Russia so those of us thought that was a bad idea so then Russia shoots this arnik missile and I think I think more than a few of the cognis Senti among the West were like oh oh that that that's a different risk I'm actually at risk now our bunkers are no longer safe so things calmed down well you know what that immediately got replaced by and I did this for my subscribers yesterday so the rubble's now finally getting smoked yeah so in the bricks this is the r in the BR r i s right and the dollar matters less and less on a percentage basis they're doing more in Ruble terms and Yuan terms but but still you know it's it's not unimportant Russian bonds are now around 25.5% ouch right imagine that but now we're now we're turning to the i in the bricks the rupe hits an all-time new low just coincidentally Brazil which is the b in bricks is now over six which is a line they've been defending for a long time and it just smashed right on right on through that and the Chinese Yan lowest it's been in this cycle they they contain it as tightly as they can but as you can see with that red dotted line down there this is the lowest it's been so wouldn't you know it Paul after they failed to stoke a World War by lobbing a bunch of hot stuff into Russia I wake up the next week and I'm like oh every bricks currency is getting smoked right now maybe it's a coincidence I don't know how how would you how would you look at that too too too cynical not cynical enough I don't know play myself anymore I don't think you're too cynical in that case that's I don't believe that that's a coincidence now look I mean I don't do it for clients but I really enjoyed currency trading up until about 2013 when something came in and completely distorted the currency markets um so I still enjoy following them that that's not something that that would just happen out of the blue I mean what's the economic reason behind it you know that happens to come through I mean that's a Warfare tactic is to go after their current and when you look at you hear of what's taking place out of Russia and how their economy is holding up far better than what anybody anticipated you know China's got all kinds of problems so I can understand China a little bit more but Brazil India they're plugging along just just fine based on all the data that we're looking at that doesn't make sense that if it was just China I wouldn't be you know that wouldn't raise my eyebrows that much and wouldn't lead me to cynicism but when you when you're showing we've got the rubble and the rupe and the real the Brazilian real that I don't think that's a coincidence well it it just says that look you know it is Warfare by any other name and I I get it international trade is bare knuckled brawling um and you got Trump in in place now which I if you saw Canada was complaining about some tariffs or something you said hey how about if you just become our 51st state and Trudeau you can be Governor right he just he just he plays it he he definitely Trump has got the yard of the deal down um you know does doesn't play the nice game like you're supposed to you know no that was oh well we our long tradition between our two countries and we value each other and we're going to look for a long and fruitful way to blah he doesn't do that it's like how about you become the 51st state right but he I think he's I think he's I think he's playing hard ball getting ready to play hard ball with with all these countries out there and so well I mean he's he's going to have to because you can see most of most of them have been in support of the deep State and exactly what they've been doing you know from what Canada did to the truckers that's they had the ability to do it a lot easier than what we could have in the United States I guess with with with our laws at this point um so I don't blame him for playing hard ball I looked at it and I was like oh he just gaset the media I can only imagine how this you know I told my wife I said we got to watch the media this afternoon and see what what they're saying about this and we we did and I came home and I was like look I don't want to watch the media so let's just turn it off yeah well you know let me tell you what I'm hopeful about though I am really hopeful that we can start to reverse this administrative State you know where 1,000 pages of rules becomes 10,000 becomes 70,000 becomes whatever um I heard somebody I forget who it was but some organization maybe a think tank anyway they'd added up maybe it's a Heritage organization said how many laws or rules acting like laws does the federal government have and the answer is 300,000 300,000 wow 300,000 ways to get in trouble right you know and um and so that's just it's just way past the apog of that St hopefully we can get some rationality back in on this um you know quick example not to pick on my town but bless their hearts they put a rule in against tiny homes they're like no we don't want those right like and and and our town by the way could use any help it could get at this stage right but somebody decided that was a bad thing because you know they I think it was a tax decision like you know we can only tax tiny they're going to be worthless so we can only can't tax them enough so not on balance they're going to cost us I guess but I'm over here looking at it like look if young people can't afford starter homes why would you pass a rule to say we don't want young people in our town it just I don't it's very it just they didn't think it all the way through you know that's the kind of rules that just sort of come forward make sense to somebody and next thing you know you have to live under it and I would submit that my town is a fractal representation of all the towns out there and we're suffering because of the rules that we've imposed upon ourselves they're not helpful anymore nobody can even justify them like this rule how does it make your life better yeah or my life better like it's a stumper doesn't make sense so our local County the county that I grew up in did the same thing about two years ago they banned the tiny homes and I don't I don't understand that like if you want to live in a tiny home that doesn't even go with The Narrative of you know going green and reduce your carbon footprint and all that because a tiny home reduces the carbon footprint so why in the world are you trying to to stop people from having affordable homes I I don't I don't understand that any way whatsoever because they're telling us reduce your carbon footprint but oh you can't reduce your carbon footprint that doesn't make sense at all no it doesn't I I don't I have dim memories of it because we moved out when I was six but I'm pretty sure now that I'm an adult I can add it up two bedrooms sort of a split L thing come down into a living room and there was a kitchen that was it bathroom maybe a th000 square ft maybe that's what that's the home I grew up we're four of us in there yeah you had four in there and two bedrooms so you shared a bedroom with with a sibling didn't you yep yeah yep thousand square feet people would not can't live in that anymore they did they did they ban a thousand square foot home in your local municipality I can't remember what the square footage is here locally uh I can't remember what it is off but you know was it was the tiny home designation which I think is somewhere in the 400 to 500t Zone but again if somebody wants to solo live in that right you know you get a bedroom you have a kitchen you got a bathroom why not why would you not allow somebody to live in something I don't even understand and but it gets me back to my earlier point which is I actually Paul if I could support something we would do away with income tax and property tax I think neither of them is is rightful neither of them comp with this idea of freedom or Liberty I rent from my local government you rent from your local government everybody who has a a property rents it from their local government and by which I mean if you don't pay your taxes they take it from you that's a rental Arrangement yes they do and it'll go to the courthouse steps and it'll be sold for the T for the back taxes and then if you don't deal with it within one year then uh is it one year I think you have one year to deal with it and maybe in the second year you forfeit the property I can't remember the details exactly but you can lose a paid for home because you get into a bind and you don't pay your property taxes you let me go further you will lose your home oh yeah you will lose your home you're right you know the sad part is Chris all of this government money printing to to Party Like It's 1999 you know I I do unfortunately in my in my business in my world we deal with people who have money right that I mean fortunately and unfortunately so I do volunteer my time for those people who just don't have money to be able to to work with somebody like us because they're not going to get access unless I volunteer my time they're not going to get access to somebody that can help them make some tough decisions and usually what happens is they're dealing with those individuals that are s selling these high commission products to where they invest $10,000 and the person makes $1,000 off of whatever goes in there so I make sure I spend some time and one of the saddest things for me especially working through the local food pantry and some of the others is individuals that are in their 80s they they didn't come from a home that taught them how to manage money they didn't go to a college that I mean the schools don't teach anybody how to manage money anymore but they they just didn't have the knowledge right so they end up in a situation where the only thing that they have is Social Security but they did fight tooth and nil to get their home paid for you know and here they are they can't go back to work Social Security isn't keeping up with the cost of living they're having higher medical expenses because even you know the medical system is is raping those who who are unfortunate as well yes it covers things but there's still extra costs that that add up over time and all they're trying to do is figure out how to keep their homes and keep their properties to cover their Property and Casualty Insurance and their property taxes and unfortunately several of them the only option that they had to be able to make in meets is do these reverse mortgages on the property that they shouldn't have to you know so you know we're fortunate because in our area or Gilmer County the one area in North Georgia um those over 65 don't pay school taxes so that reduces that burden a lot but still taxes are going up so fast in a lot of these areas um because of poor investments in the past that it's it's crushing those that are overlooked in our society because they they don't have the ability to generate revenue for most people to be able to pay attention to them and and it's it's heartbreaking that's not what we're supposed to do as a society that's not what we're supposed to do as a people and I haven't thought hard about how to fix it but that's a problem that needs to be to be dealt with so doing away with property taxes is one way to deal with it well you know I I was talking with a gentleman recently who's from Cook County uh in Illinois so that's Chicago his yearly property tax in his home is more than the purchase price of the home when he bought it in the 70s oh my goodness on a yearly basis I forget he paid 23 Grand or something now it's 24 Grand in in property taxes per year right that's crazy like you can't you can't get by with that but um but beyond that you know this brings us back to the rule of 72 so we just had this in our town you know the the local school board and these people are Nazis um you know they they will as soon as you don't give them exactly what they want which is a 5% increase on a yearly basis this year they were asking for 4.9 you know they throw a hissy fit and they cut the most popular after school program so the parents get all mad and you know apply pressure right they don't talk about the fact that it used to be you know if this is the growth in students and this is the growth in teachers this is the growth in administrators right so we got a lot of Administrators $250,000 salaries I'm like maybe we could just trim I don't know what would happen if no administrator showed up would kids not learn that day I'm not clear what would happen but you know so they got their little thing they're running but but this is the rule of 72 if a 5% increase per year that means that school budget is going to be twice as large every 14 years that's how compounding Works twice as large so if you're spending 20,000 per student which is a thing that happens now that used to be private tuition Paul this public schools are demanding 20 grand a student right it's 196 in our area here not a fancy wow well that'll be 40 Grand a student and then it'll be 80 grand a few more doubling Cycles right and and so the question is well eventually that just breaks anybody can see that it's just math and you're saying it's already it is already breaking for a lot of elderly people it is I mean what are you getting on what are you getting on Social Security I'll round I'll round three grand a month oh well if you're lucky there's individuals that are out there that are in their 80s right now that are only getting 16,700 a month yes that could be property tax 100% if you're that poor guy in Chicago it sure could be you know at a minimum if you if that individual in Chicago if he purchased that house in 1978 and he didn't move you know then then his he shouldn't be charged a higher appraise value at this point I do believe that that's criminal and that's just another way that the government Creeps in but it's a machine they don't they don't really care and you're right that's one of the things I've looked at at our local community and my wife gives me a hard time she's like I'm in the school system so be quiet I'm like honey you know me I can't be quiet but I will be respectful mhm there's way too many administrators and and they they're a bunch of paper pushers to please the government that brings me to a conversation I had today pretty interesting so I sit down with a client and I have the capacity for whatever reason Chris to be able to get along with both sides in most cases so client sits down and and I knew it was coming and um I'll say I'll say he he or she it doesn't matter M looks at me and says so are you going to help me move out of the country now that Trump's elected and I said I can't remember what I said I said something along the lines is like well you're want to leave the country and and they were like not really you know I've got too many family and things like that but I'm really worried that it's going to be a mess all of these people that he's bringing in are unqualified and I said I said really I said well I said let me ask you this do you agree that change needs to take place the direction we're headed they were like yes and I said so you know you're concerned that they're not educated in the way that things have been done but the way that things have been done are leading Us in the wrong direction so are we not better off just to pick somebody off the street and put them in that position so that they're not educated in the wrong direction and make a change and they looked at me for a second and they thought you know that's a pretty good point but I'm still scared to death and I said yeah there's a lot of hurdles to overcome I said but we got to make a different decision and you know and that could have gone bad but it really had not crossed their mind that having somebody with a different set of eyes in there and a different education maybe not quite trained to the point that that that they have to follow the same path could be better and you know maybe I'm fortunate that they are open up open-minded enough to have that conversation but you know there's this there's this belief that you have to have all these administrators well really good superintendent and a really good secretary is about all you need in the administrative area of the school system except for the fact that you got all these government regulations that you got to push papers for to fill out and all these measurements to take place and if we could gut those government regulations then we could get that cost out of the education system but unfortunately there's going to be a lot of people lose their jobs in that case too and and we need that Chris we've got to endure that pain to move people into creative productive positions instead of paper pushing position and just because you're trained with some certificate that puts you in the administrative Halls of power in the school system doesn't mean that you're serving the students or the people I agree you know what Paul I I just want to unleash um the the good people of this country to just do what they're going to do right yeah and and so we saw there's lots of I know it's out of the news cycle but I just did this on my signal Hour podcast just came out talking about what's going on in Western North Carolina and it turns out oh there's still 5,000 displaced families and FEMA doing nothing and all of this stuff but and that's not true FEMA doing one thing they're seeking to install a $280,000 gate to prevent people from using the road that the West Virginia Miners magically rebuilt when everybody said it couldn't be done these guys are like oh yeah we'll get that done we work with loose soil all the time we're miners right and they just they built this road back up to Batcave so the people could at least get back and forth It's you know it's not pretty I'm sure it's bumpy but it works so the government's role instead of going wow we should learn from this a little embarrassed we didn't know how to do this now let's put a gate on it stop people from using it no way that is so it's evil that's evil you're exactly right that's evil instead of going hey you guys just pulled off something come over here and help us because we got to get to these people it's we're educated and we're better than you so get out of our way we're going to shut it down none of that makes sense to me the only thing the only word that works is you're right Chris that's evil well speaking of of this is when I when I know that that like I'm just so astonished with um what people can do um is this so so this is the Blue Lagoon here where I I've been you know it's this beautiful uh hot tubby area in in Iceland and it's being attacked by this volcano and it's like there's all this there's all this lava headed a certain direction well wouldn't you know it um the people in raiki viic figured out how to to take the lava and they sprayed a whole bunch of water on it and they hardened It Up In One Direction and got it to go another Direction and they saved their tourist attraction okay wow so I learned that if you give people a volcano oh they'll figure out what they need to do you get some smart guys and gals on there they start spraying water on it and they start oh if I cool it this way it starts to bend a little you got there's like people who can put it on their resume now I'm a professional lava Handler like is awesome right it didn't require a government to write regulations and books and training manuals and assess fent penalties and fees with a licensing operation you know and a permit they just got out there and said what needs doing and they fixed it I that's I believe in people I don't believe in organizations clumps of people that we call government to fix stuff I just don't I'm with you and it's a level of arrogance Chris they need to that we need to unleash the American people but there are people that dropped down uh School in the eighth grade because they had to take care of their families I have three clients that that had an eighth grade education and they've accumulated a massive amount of wealth because they were humble enough to ask a lot of questions they didn't really they didn't still to this day don't feel educated enough to where they're they they feel smart but they're brilliant because they ask a lot of questions they're voracious Learners and they're problem solvers so you you got these individuals that somebody that graduates you know with these degrees and gets this certificate and hey you know you should hire me because I'm from this institution look down upon the person that graduated the eth grade or then they're jealous you know they justify it and say they're you know well well they were lucky you know they they couldn't have done that smart and and we're missing out on so many people that are a part of this country one thing about Americans is we're Fighters we're Innovative we're creative and and if you unleash the American people and stop predicting these monopolies it's going to be far better regardless of what the markets do and quite frankly I'd rather have the markets go sideways for 12 years and hope in the middle class come back and have small businesses where when I travel over to Alabama or another town hey there's this great new business that's not a Walmart that has these Innovative products that I may not be able to find somewhere else and open up the power of the American people and bring back the joy of the middle class instead of you know kind of like the Hunger Games where you've got the capital that's so detached from everybody else and they've got their boot on the the small business trying to hold back that Innovation to protect their own position because quite frankly most of them inherited it they didn't earn it and and that's the problem that we have right now I agree you know I bet we could pull a lot of people individually sort of my age and and ask them would you take a big old decline in the the stock market if it meant your kids could start out their investing life from a reasonable valuation I'd say yeah do it I wouldn't even think about it like yep yeah yep but I got to tell you Paul these people you know I'll speak for my generation for the moment um really disappointed you know with with the Boomers who are just they're just so greedy like like I got mine and they want to keep it and they want you know that's what that's what the Federal Reserve did can we just be clear about this they didn't rescue the markets they rescued asset holders whether you held real estate or you held stocks and bonds that's who they rescued they bailed them out fine but when you sort of look at that from a sociological standpoint you find out that was a that's a narrow band that isn't everybody that's a very narrow band of people of a specific age right so they basically said this little box we're going to we're going to save this little box of people why was it debated was it discussed did you vote for it no no and no it was just what they did yeah you know yeah well and and there's a belief that there's the trickle down economics and and quite frankly Chris there was a period of time where there was a lot of trickle down economics and I know there's some truth to that but it's been distorted this at this point because here's the thing you take my team Renee has worked with me for 20 years Carrie has worked with me for 20 years Britney's for 15 Dylan for 12 we're a family right so the better that we do in the business the better they do across the board I don't I don't you know my head's on The Chopping Block if something goes wrong I'm the one that everybody comes after so yes I have to reserve a little bit larger uh part of the pie because I'm carrying that extra risk that's just part of what happens in business but they're you know we make sure that they're very well compensated and I've seen I've seen so many businesses and business owners that built that business that had those employees that were just as crucial to that business being built that were overpaying all their employees when they sold the practice and then private Equity or somebody else comes in and you know what the first thing they do Chris is they gut all of the the the high paid longtime Foundation employees that that are the most valuable that's in that business so that they can strip the profits out for their own pocket there was a time where there was Integrity when you had a lot of small businesses in our country I believe that top down Trickle down Economics work because because there was the integrity to take care of those people but for whatever reason we've moved into a point in time in our country now where we're so self-serving in in the corporate business model that is hey I'm going to go buy that business and I'm going to be efficient which means I'm going to gut all of the high-pace employees because I'm a monopoly right and I have no much uh not much competition because I have access to Capital on Wall Street that the person next door me doesn't have I'm going to cut my services your services going to be worse your product is going to be worse but man my profitability is going to be great and look that's the world that I have to swim in because I have to help people grow their money but we have a moral problem in our country that I'm hoping will change and and all we have to do Chris is get the government regulations out of the way because they're protecting the monopolies they're not protecting the environment for everyone that's protecting the environment and I'm just picking this number out of thin a there's probably 25 that are protecting a monopoly and even the banking system you know after all the banks went down in 2008 they've raised the barrier of Entry to to start a new local bank to the point that you can't do it it's just not worth the risk associated so now you've got a few banks that are making decisions out of out of a town or a city hundreds of miles away to impact your local community and it doesn't matter what your reputation is in the local community because a handshake and your character doesn't matter when you go to get a loan anymore what matters is what that Central planner at that monopolized bank in another um uh City think should take place in your local area and we we've got to get that fixed I don't know how they fix it but I hope they do me too that was what was so frightening about that Mark andreon interview on Joe Rogan which was he talked about at least in one part of that that the plan that they told him about at the White House was to create this overarching AI Control layer with just a few companies in charge of everything interfacing with the government to make sure the right things are done and as we learned recently right things often mean my political opponents are targeted harassed and processes punishment you know drag them down not really charged with anything you know but you have to defend yourself very expensive in time and money you know so so that's yeah no let's not go that direction but wasn't that wasn't that the fundamental thing between people who want freedom and people who want more Authority right that that's the fundamental break that that happened there I think people just said you know I'm done I'm tired of the gaslighting I'm tired of being lied to you know this was really offensive to me just yesterday I find out that Biden somehow they flew his old self to Africa and he pledged a billion dollars to help Africa rebuild from floods and nothing is being done virtually nothing is being done for our own American citizens in North Carolina except for building gates to reduce the Innovation and access to individuals right I I was heartbroken over that I don't understand you know Chris what that reminds me of is is a family where you have this one individual that is probably the worst narcissist in the world right that goes out and paints this great picture to everybody else but treats their family like hell at home and that's what it is that there's no caring for the American people it's like oh let's go make myself look good in in Africa and maybe they'll they'll record me good in their books I I mean maybe I'm too cynical in thinking that but it's absolutely ridiculous you know I mean it it's so ridiculous it lead the first question that comes to my mind is okay the evidence tells us Ukraine's a a a money laundering uh program so who in Africa is he paying off to have it lineing back into his own Pockets like literally that's all I can think of because we've got good people in North Carolina not even what happened in Hawaii and and and they're abandoning them why do we not spend resources on our own people a billion dollars I can't remember how many $450,000 houses I can't remember if it was a billion or8 billion that Ma's not necessarily easy to do y'all but well for a billion that would be I'm just in top of my head 2,200 roughly yeah 2 2222 yeah so I mean that's a dramatic impact that can be made in that local community we have to take care of our own people first before cuz it's their responsibility to take care of them once our family's taken care of yes we can be generous and step out and take and help another family but we have to take care of our own people first and and that just makes me so ridiculously angry well that that's the first thing I would do if I was well I would do a lot of first things if I was Trump first thing I would do is I would just have a full-blown federal investigation into election election practices any fraud I found I don't care if it it was a GOP person a DNC I don't care libertarian I don't care but I'd be coming in hard and find people who were committing fraud and that would be the end of that long prison sentences very public you know trials make sure everybody sort of understood what they just witnessed um stop that so that would be part one but uh but anything that we could do now so you know we've talked about it before but I am really impressed with what Javier Malay has managed to do in just a little over a year in Argentina they're gonna have eight and a half perc GDP growth this year the vacum wera Shale is on Pace now to have a million barrels a year they're going to be in oil exporter they were an energy Wast you know an importing impoverished Nation they he fired he just act like half the government agencies just gone you know like I gotta be honest I would wake up and I would have a double fist pump of cheer if I wake up read the newspaper and it's like Department of energy disbanded you know Department of Education disbanded like just start just like just get rid of them as a starting point potentially see what happens right yeah hey my favorite video clip that I saw is when Javier Malay goes in there and he've got all these I guess they were magnetic strips and he's grabbing them gone gone I was like yes let's see how this goes but he set the president I mean really he's a path cutter so he comes in there and just absolutely upends of course course Elon Musk goes in and buys Twitter and just guts the whole place and everybody said that that it would be impossible and Twitter's fart x x it should be X that takes me forever to learn that but it is it is so far superior to anything that it ever has been in the past that it's amazing and it keeps getting better every week and every month so now that should lead the you know give confidence to the Trump Administration the dogee council and everybody that's there just wrecked the whole system because it's not working for the American people and what is working will clearly rise to the top you know if they just you know if we wake up and they said we're going to have a moratorium on building codes in Massachusetts for the next five years see what happens you know what happened nothing except for building probably that's right well I if I'm if I'm having a house build it's in my interest to make sure that it's not built in a shoddy way that it's going to fall down I don't need codes to tell me that right no you know I know what I'm looking at people I trust people will do what what's in their best interest you know they sure will and if you do it bad then when you try and sell it you guess what you can get a bad price because somebody's going to have that thing looked at and say no I don't want that's right by that but anyway that I I really I'm hoping we can get to that point because you know what Paul I talk about this a lot in my other other life which is that we have a math problem built into our overall system of money at this point in time it's it's gone exponential on the debt and you know we're just doing all this stuff and and so there's going to have to be some kind of a reset at some point it's going to be a little painful um and it's rooted in this crazy uh Austrian School of Economics idea which is that if you live too far beyond your means for a period of time you got to live below your means for a little period of time just how it is and we've been living way beyond our means pretending like it doesn't matter right so it will and I know then you have to translate that into actual tactics that people would pursue because what do you do with that information you know if our money system is really that math problem me what do you do right and uh yeah It's Tricky right it's not even a coin flip for me or this coin has eight heads and just two tails right um there's at least an 80 plus percent chance in my mind that that we just try and print our way out of it because that's what we we're going to do yeah which means inflation and that that M Minsky moment that we started out you started out talking about with Paul tutor Jones you know and and what's interesting is if you're going to be short the long end of the curve what's the one thing that you should be long on the uh uh in the interim period which has not been great in its performance since the election this is not a recommendation I got to back out of that a little bit but one would be inclined to be long gold on the shorter end if you're going to be short those treasuries on the longer end MH because one it's either default risk that he's talking about right and and gold has no creditor so it'll maintain that purchasing power if we did have a deflationary environment so you don't have to worry about the default on the other side and if it's inflationary which I'm assuming that that's what he's pointing to that's what the math looks like it's going to end up being then that gold silver um would be Hedges and one thing that's interesting now look I I mean I'm I'm open I struggle with the cryptocurrencies the Bitcoin is this it like it's not been tested but one thing it is telling us from a longer term standpoint with its move and Gold's longer term move where it is here the monetary system is changing and we're only going to know exactly how it changes before too long but gold and and the crypto for some seem to be the area that a lot of individuals are going into to say hey I'd rather own this than than the US dollars at this point or any other currencies so we won't know what it's telling us until we have the benefit of hindsight but there's a lot of things bubbling under the surface that leads me to believe that this is a pause in Precious Metals for a while and that that you know from my opinion you should talk to an advisor not a recommendation this is just my opinion for educational purposes that you should seriously consider buying any dips that arise over the next six months agree so if this plays out like um say 2009 remember so we had the big dip but then there was this recovery then there was this huge dip back into the into the spring um this feels a little like 07 to me I guess this stage right you just have this this climb this Relentless climb but if you look underneath and you see The Insider selling and the volume's kind of Disappearing and drying up and you know starting to get overc concentrated in a couple of couple of big names you know and all of that um yeah cuz I'm you know I I don't want to be just like that ever skeptical guy but I'm I'm watching all this excitement over Ai and I'm just like well where's the business case I use it I use I use AI right I use it to help me structure things but I'm looking at I'm like really what is the business case and at best I can come up with a neutral business case which is it helps a company fire a lot of workers so that's good for the company but it's not good for the workers that's right it's good for the company but it might not be good for the economy which is still structured around this idea that we all have productive jobs and we go out and because of that we're individual economic units and we do things like take out mortgages on houses and buy cars and things like that so so I'm still waiting for that thing that says AI is going to create brand new wealth that is then shared liberally with everybody somehow I haven't figured it out yet but if you have a if you have an idea on that let me know I I can see how it can be spectacularly good for individual compan compies but it's going to that's because it's going to allow them to either do a lot more with less or fire a lot of people well inherently technolog is deflationary so so if it let's say it's that good Chris and now nobody has a job right you've got a hand you got five individuals well now all of a sudden they're you know they own it all right that's not that's not where we want to be as individuals but let's say if it's not that great but it does eliminate 20% of the workforce that's out there well that is deflationary where are their jobs going to go the American people are are Innovative right but still if AI is that good across the board there's there it can take away a lot of innovation so that is deflationary so yeah it might be good towards the company's bottom line but if they can't sell more you know if they're selling 20% less products because there's 20% less people employed and 20% less uh ability to spend money then that is going to imp the bottom line and the markets at some point down the road and then it's going to Compound on itself as time goes along so I'm I I I I know that it's useful it shortcuts several things for me but it's nowhere near the point that I don't have you know that I don't need all the the staff that I have now it just makes them a little more efficient at their jobs so still waiting for that Killer Business case I'm I you know they're spending as if it's that's a proven thing but I'm not I'm not clear it's a business driver here this may be more of a political even defense driver at this stage um because there's this idea of what's called a digital Canyon that the first country or entity that cracks over into some sort of like super AI will will will always remain so far ahead of its competitors Because by the time they've cracked that same territory you're already well beone to creates a digital Canyon that that can't be crossed anymore um that's the idea I don't actually know what it fully means in practice but we'll see I hate to say this but there is a book that tells us that there's a point in the future that if you don't agree that you will not be able to buy sell trade or do anything and all I can think of is with the computing power of AI it can you know it really could monitor every behavior of every person around the entire Globe so to an extent it's absolutely terrifying to me um was this a bestselling book by any chance yes it's the historical bestselling book that's out there I think it is yes of all books sold throughout history or giv away it is the number one and it happens to be in the book called Revelation which is actually very interest so I believe has a distinction to being the first book mass-produced on the Gutenberg Press so a lot of first there you know I actually did not know that Chris and I'm ashamed to admit that so it's it was the first book to be mass produced that makes sense though it really does but I didn't know that statistic I believe that's correct I'll look that back up again just to be I heard that a long time ago um but uh well sorry got dark real quick well you know I don't so you maybe you've seen but but for my subscribers at Peak Prosperity we' had this just wonderful conversation I started it up by by um doing a piece on this thing called mous Topia which was a a social experiment run with mice where they created a Utopia no Predators all the food you could want all the water cages cleaned no pressures on the mice none so predictably they read up until they sort of occupied the space it got a little crowded and then Paul turns out they lost their will to live for some reason and the population crashed to zero and then somebody else at the site was commenting that they done the same experiment with worms in essence right that again you know given the choice between taking a path that would take them to a desiccated death or a moist you know survival eventually they just choose death right um and so the the idea is that what if um natural law God has programmed into us the need to struggle the need to have an edge the need to to be challenged in some way shape or form and that so then even the illustrious Allure of AI to me sounds like a dystopia because it's basically saying oh don't worry you won't have to make decisions anymore you won't have to remember what you even like it'll order things for you you won't have to remember to you won't like it's basically the promise of AI is to take away all the challenges of life I'm pretty sure that leads to organisms losing their sense of meaning and purpose right right I who I forget who it was it might have been Hayek um or was it nii who said that he said ah it's easy to trip up socialists they say oh we're going to create this Utopia and I Sayre when humans finally get to Utopia the last about 20 minutes before they just Revolt they're going to need some drama in their life they're going to need a little something something you know and and you know they'll have to they'll have to recreate that so I actually think that's part of the other tension I said Freedom versus authoritarianism but there are people who understand that that you build character you build a good life any your relationship with your wife your partner um your relationship with your kids what you do as a business person all of it is defined by how much you put into it the greatest impacts that I've had in my life at the moment or the greatest lessons that I've learned that have shaped me for the better at the time where the darkest days that I'd had in my life and I didn't think things could get better and on the other side of it I look back and I thank the Lord for taking me through those periods of time because either I was prepared to be able to help somebody walk through their dark day or I was better prepared and stronger for something down the road that was coming that I couldn't see and so I do believe that that struggle and gives us meaning to life right like we we we battled we overcame or we even battled and lost but we battled and that's the most important thing we strive for a better future and I love the Optimus Creed I used to I don't have I haven't had time to participate in the Optimus Club locally but the one part of their Creed I'll never forget we learn from the mistakes of the past and we press on to the greater achievements of the future or you know to forget learn and forget the mistakes of the past and press on to the greater achievements of the future and that's what makes it so wonderful to live in a place like the United States States and that's what made it so wonderful to build our our our country Foundation because you didn't have the monopolies with their boot on the neck of the average individual or shoulder holding them down that's what our Founders left but now we're we have as a country allowed that same risk to creep back into the system of course Mark and dreon you know laid out um that it was a lot worse than any of us inti ipated to be the the de banking thing Chris I did not realize that it was that bad I've known of a few people that have been debanked because they were real popular I had no clue that it was that prevalent in our country and that's evil yeah and and and um I I had a banking person sort of reach out and explain the details of it and there's a lot of nuance and complexity back there and they do have some real issues they have to struggle with but at the end of it I said to her um yeah but the like the f L CCC or or Children's Health defense like like like companies that were just you know entities that are just sort of ideologically against whatever the Pharma people were up to when they're getting debanked that has nothing to do with trying to make the world a better place you know that's something else so so I think that's again bifurcate everything good and evil I think that that's really you know people just got fed up with all the lies all the gaslighting all the ant sort of human behaviors and frankly anti-democratic and anti- capitalist like anti- a lot of things basically anti-American that just crept too far and now we're in the process of cleaning that up and I hope we can do it quickly and um more like Javier Malay people got upset beat some pots and pant but got on with their lives I hope that's that's about as noisy as it gets when when we do the same thing and I hope we can get it done you know I hope so too I am hopeful and I'm excited that we don't have group things think coming into a lot of these positions that are out there we need a fresh set of eyes we need a fresh set of individuals to come in and I can't tell you how many times that I'll pull somebody in that has no investment experience at all and I'm like look I want your opinion here's why we do what we do what am I missing and every now and then I guess this about seven years ago I had somebody ask me a question well why do you do it that way and I was like how would you do it and they shared an idea and I was like that's brilliant because I you know you're trained in the industry and sometimes you get these these blinders on and and there's everybody has something to offer Chris even the most foolish individual has something to offer and that's the problem we don't respect individuals anymore respect our average individuals there's this level of Pride that we have especially in the halls of power that I know better than you and there's and that reminds me there's a way that seems right to a man and in the end it leads to death so I'm hopeful that we're we're going to get in there sh they're going to get in there the Trump Administration is going to get in do what they say they do roll up their sleeves fight what fights need to be fought I know Elon Musk is not scared of a fight and do what's right for the American people and get the government serving the American people again and you know how I know that it'll be working is when we pick up the phone and call Social Security and they go hi how can I help you instead of hello hold on just a second I got to finish this phone call you know click yeah sorry I couldn't help it well I'm hopeful too we got to make it to January 20th at this point in time we're recording this early December here so um let's hope that that everything just goes along and and we get some fresh people in and we just can keep moving um that that's that's my sincere hope in this holiday season so with that thanks everyone for listening Paul thanks for your time anybody who wants to talk to Paul Andor his amazing team please go to Peak Financial investing.com fill out the form somebody will be back in touch with you within about 48 business hours couple days you could have a one-on-one with with Paul and his team and it's so worth it such a such a great thing so Paul thanks for your time today and um gosh I guess we'll see you next week yes see you next week I look forward to it Chris all right until then bye everybody hope you enjoyed this and we'll be back [Music]
Are Markets Delusional, or is this Time Truly Different? – Peak Prosperity
Summary
Transcript
nothing in this program should be considered investment advice it is for educational purposes only please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full is the Deep State going to you know like rats turn on each other and try to be the first to to come up with a plea deal and and give up are they going to eat each other up or they going to fight to the brutal end between now and January [Music] 20th hello and welcome to this edition of Finance you I am your host Chris Martinson here again with Paul ker of ker wealth management hey Paul how are you today hi Chris I'm doing well good to see you again great uh so much to talk about we're going to be talking about markets obviously things Finance related um got a bunch of stuff going on I want to start here with this this is the S&P over time you and I talked about something mysterious happening back here on October 30th it's just been that's ruler straight Advance barely counted as a correction huge Advance this got a little dodgy for a second but it's since broken out again and by the way Paul this is kind of a global thing um you know and we could note that the German Dax breaking out smashing through above 20,000 and and I say that with that incredulity because my economic data Paul coming out of Germany it is smells like rotten eggs um it's not good layoffs uh bad earning you name it so I I don't know how to make sense of that except in my old school way which is I guess there's ample liquidity more buyers than sellers that's all I can figure it sure seems that way I don't understand at all what's taking place in Germany and and because of just what's taking place their their economy has been gutted now in the US I still believe that that we're kind of in that speculative phase but a lot of it makes sense cuz I think more than 60% of the population actually has hope again that that that this Trump Administration is going to break up the monopolies you know those that are in the Ivory Tower closest to the money printers and closest to the regulation process that have been protecting monopolies you know and of course you you've shared what Mark andreon had talked about on The Joe Rogan com podcast you know just and I was kind of surprised by that because I yeah it's not that often that I'm not cynical enough and uh so but I do see the hope that's out there I see people that have hope that the small businesses are going to have a chance again and if we get the with the Chevron ruling and get regulation out of the way and and the monopolies don't have this unfair Advantage if the rules to the game come back to the same then we're going to have Innovations the middle class is going to come back we're going to have small business Innovation so I get the hope I don't think the markets are going to continue to be as resilient going forward maybe maybe not but I don't understand any anything about what's taking place in Germany yet CU there's not been any major Innovation it just seems to be liquidity or pure speculation yeah you know I've seen this this isn't my first rodeo so Paul I analyze almost everything through that liquidity gauge now remember the stock market is supposed to be this forward discounting machine yes and it's the sum of all this intelligence but I I actually think that was true ER back in the day when when there were humans involved can we be honest about this 90% of all the trade that go through that drive the market this way and that way have nothing to do with humans except for the humans that programmed the algorithms that circulate through the silica chips you you know I know but they don't do greed and fear those algorithms Paul they don't remember you know all of the technical analysis that you cut your teeth on that I did too it was there because if you peered at the charts you understood basically the sum of all fears and hopes and greed right I don't know that algorithms do that kind of stuff they don't really care no they don't but the question that I have Chris is those algorithms um the programs are put together by by humans with the weaknesses that we have right so the question is is is that built into the algorithms or is it just the fact that they're going off of past historical data and this happened in the past so this is what's going to happen in the future so you know that kind of brings to mind something that I had here to share if I can find it yes this um the cycle of Market emotions and I know people have seen this you know time and time again but it still applies so if you can see this I want to give credit to the Twitter post so Finance aot um Finance lot you know what stage are we at now what would you anticipate the stage we're in right now Chris oh we're we're on near the top over there on the left somewhere past greed we're in delusion maybe we're in agreement I'm thinking we're in the delusion area yeah that feels about right yeah so for those of you listening you know bull markets tend to to go through these phases so the the first phase is the stealth phase that's where the smart money starts to move well to put that in perspective you know a lot of your insiders are are net sellers right now um so we're starting to see the smart money is not necessarily accumulating but then the bull market takes off once the smart money moves in then you get in the awareness phase and you'll typically have the first sell off in that awareness phase because everybody's still scared then you start to enter that Mania phase you know it starts to get media attention then you get some enthusiasm that's where the public really starts to join and then you get the greed and then you get the delusion and quite frankly the delusion is understandable within the us right now there's a lot of hope that things are going to change but we have a tremendous amount of hurdles to overcome and then the final stage which I don't think we're there yet but but if this Market runs into the spring I think it's going to be hey here's the new paradigm and that's the blowoff phase and the point of of greatest risk quite frankly so so I'm I'm in agreement with you I think we're in the delusion phase right now yeah it's that's how I see it but you know these these algorithms Paul they're remorseless it's kind of like you know if I had to stand at a Machine Gun Nest and that was a tank shooting at me I'm going to display a lot of fear right but I could program an algorithm that would just sit there and keep shooting and it wouldn't Flinch right that's right M you know it because it just doesn't it's I don't know I I you know it's hard to get a number but last I heard uh something like 75 to 80% of all trades on the market were by high frequency trading firms they're not even holding these stocks Paul because of good earnings or delusions or stories or narratives they're holding them for about 10 microsc to a few hundred milliseconds mhm right they'll they'll continue as long as the mar Market momentum continues to go up they just keep buying regardless of there's you know there's the threat of escalation of War anything of that nature they just don't care no no they don't care now um I'd like to introduce uh the views of Paul tutor Jones pretty famous pretty legendary investor kind of guy and he's introducing a term here cab which I I wasn't that familiar with but um kab is is that state of agreement that EX exists between WWF performers and the audience where everybody knows it's fake but they agree not to talk about that that's that's kab okay that's that state of suspended disbelief that exists within the pro wrestling world all right so let me just make sure I got this dialed up loud enough so we can hear this and Go Firm that I've never heard of called kayab and in wrestling parlance that represents the unspoken Unwritten tcid agreement between the wrestlers and the fans about the illusion that's going on in the ring the suspension of of disbelief that what's going on in the ring is actually uh we know it's scripted and we know it's a performance but they ask us to think it's genuine and real and that's what you think this is yeah we're in an economic kayab right now and it's not just United states were in it in the in the UK in France Greece Italy Japan Japan being the biggest of all it's this economic cavab and the question is is after this election will we have a Minsky moment here in the United States and US debt markets will we have a Minsky moment where all of a sudden there's a point of recognition that what's going to happen or or what they're talking about is actually fiscally impossible financially impossible so are you betting on a Minsky moment I am clearly uh not going to own any fixed income and I'm going to be short the back end uh of fixed income because it's just completely the wrong price H I had not heard that and poter tutor Jones is brilliant for those of you that don't know him yeah economic kayab so so so two things to decode for people the Minsky moment himman Minsky termed this thing that that sort of I'm going to paraphrase it badly but the way I understand it Paul and add to this if if you can um that that everything sort of persists along until that moment when people recognize that it wasn't what they thought it was and then you get this these sudden sharp shocks to the system a Minsky moment is sort of like everybody deciding that the dollar is way overvalued and running for the exits all at once and the exits only going to be this big I'm holding my fingers up in a little circle so um uh but he it's interesting he took that uh saying listen this kayab is is existing across all these economies but he interpreted that to say I'm not holding fixed income yes how do you read that yes well that tells me that that in his estimation that the fixed income Market is completely in underpriced which you know we've always been told that the bond Traders are the smartest individuals in the room and they are they they really are but the market the bond market and his assessment I'm assuming based on what he says has not priced um the long-term risk to the capital from default whether that's corporate or inflationary pressures from government spending because something is going to have to break so that would be my assumption what what would your assumption be Chris that it's clearly obvious uh regardless of whatever might come in with Trump and the department of governmental efficiency with Elon and VC regardless or whatever they might do like when you really peel it back Paul there's not a lot you can do cuz when you look at um what we'll call fixed expenditures to the US government compared to discretionary there ain't that much discretionary um you know and so you're not going to do you can't just decide not to pay the 1.25 trillion interest payments this year that's fixed if you don't pay that worse things result so that's getting paid Social Security Medicare Medicaid not much you can do about that stuff you could try and find some efficiency in there I suppose but um you know that's long and slow uh I guess you could cut defense heavy um but of course that has its own economic impacts and Congressman scream and all the Ron and locky Martin lobbyist scream and that that's a hard fight too so it's so I think what he's basically saying is look we have a fiscal problem coming and I don't think the Bond Market has recognized it and therefore I don't want to if anything I'm not not only am I not owning these I'm going to be constructively short the long end of this thing meaning you know the 10 Paper 20 year 30e paper whatever those pieces are he wants to be short that that that's where he's at now guys like Paul tutor talk in their book all the time right you know right let's leave open the possibility Paul that he's saying that but buying the long end of the curve always leave that possibility open that is a possibility that is Poss but but I'm absolutely terrified of the long end and I don't you know just because of the fundamentals of what's taking place out there if the Trump Administration isn't able to pull this off perfectly or you know what's going to happen within within the Deep state right now I mean it's clear that that they're coming after they're trying to to have full disclosure lay it before the American people so is the Deep State going to you know like rats turn on each other and try to be the first to to come up with a plea deal and and give up are they going to eat each other up or are they going to fight to the brutal end between now and January 20th and if there's if there's if the reality comes out that our liabilities are far greater than what are known right now which is another possibility then that could be really devastating to the to the long end because if we get into a situation where the government has to print that there's no other option or they choose to print right um then that's going to absolutely crush the you know longer end of the yield curve and that means rates are higher and and and he would be right to be short those long end now in the short run looks to me like we're going to see a rally which may be a tradable rally in the 20 year I don't know that's only Prof for professionals only not a recommendation but um you know when you look out longer it's I I would lean to the to the side that he is I'm more concerned about our fixed income portfolios navigating the days ahead correctly which we have the rules in place they have their rules in place we're shorter on the yield curve right now I'm more concerned about that over the next 3 to 5 years than I am the equity side of the portfolio well I honestly Paul I mean I understand how it could happen from fiduciary certain aspects but if you sat me down and said would you buy 30-year government paper at 4.5% interest I'm like no nope no I have to be confident that that 30-year paper is going to be worth what they say it's worth by the year 2054 not a chance no not a chance there's no way there's too much risk I mean the bid Administration already lit the fuse for the bricks to come up with their alternative payment system whether they roll out the unit or not and I thought it was quite interesting the first thing that did you hear about Trump U and his threat to to the bricks if they roll if they roll roll out their own currency that it'll be 100% tariffs yep and the only thing that I could think of at that point is we are to the point in our country where we have to threaten with Force you know verbally from that standpoint that if you do this you know we're we're going to do everything that we can to fight you tooth and nail well with with a couple of things I mean he can say that but let's get down to reality real quick we are 100% import dependent on China for about 18 critical minerals right gallium geranium tum like like just pretty much 100% also uh we get something stupid like half of our uranium comes from Russia so that's fine but you know the uranium the nuclear power plant industry is going to be dude you just made our our fuel go up 100% you know that's going to have impacts right obviously so it's one thing to say 100% tariffs it's another when you get down to the details that's right well and think about the inflationary impacts that that's going to happen have if let's say he actually does that that's going to be highly inflationary until we can rebuild within the United States and then that's going to be inflationary in itself because our labor is a lot more expensive than what it is at least for now in the other countries that are out there so there's going to be a period of time and that inflationary pressure would absolutely destroy the long end of the curve yeah so um so we're we're in a very tough situation to where it's going to have to be navigated perfectly and with God's grace to come out of this uh without without any bumps or bruises or or catastroph catastrophic events yeah well it certainly requires being Nimble and you know having a risk-managed approach I I I got to tell you Paul this is embarrassing but probably every other night for the past three or four weeks I wake up at 2 in the morning I just have to turn my phone on I just look at the Futures I'm just like has anything happened cuz I'm kind of expecting something to happen and nothing happens nothing nothing and that nothing actually alarms me more than a something a 5 or 10% correction would actually make me feel better but we have things like the oresnik Hazel you know non-nuclear tip ballistic missile being fired and the market just kind of goes up you know um it it just it's just absolutely feels like you said delusional right where a delusion is there's reality and you're disconnected from it that's delusional so I feel like these markets don't have much grounding in what I would call geopolitical risk risky risk cycle risk cuz we used to have these things called Cycles I'm old enough to remember these things yes I do you that was that that was one of the hardest things for me from a nerve uh from a follow of the rules of our strategy but you're like this cycle is really overextended it's really overextended it's really overextended and it and it seems like these Cycles have gone away due to the government intervention that's occurred in the past and trained investors like Pavlov's dog or the algorithms let's put it that way yeah yeah now speaking to your um your chart where you said under that delusional part it was sort of you said I think there was a stealth then there was a smart money and then retail right retail was the third big block of that so again you and I have talked about this in the past um but this is from uh sober look and it looks like uh retail has never been this giddy on stocks they have not never been this certain about things um so so that's that's the retail participation and this is an astonishing Pile in how do you get a U-turn like I mean that's a what happened in in late 2022 to cause that to happen fear of missing out and you know so I think what happened late 2022 and I think this has been something that's just slowly worked on the psyche of so many individuals because Chris they get to the point where where passive money flows are are they're they are not price sensitive buyers it goes to work no matter what so the employment's been pretty good investors are are hurting into the S&P 500 there's all kinds of metrics that are saying you know the US in relation to the rest of the world markets is the the most distorted that it's ever been so the one one theory that I have that's changed I think this cycle is going to end with the us being un likee Japan in the late uh 1980s nobody ever believed that it would change M but they they had the largest capitalization of of global stocks and then 35 years later you know it it took the market wasn't even back to where it was in 1989 I think this cycle is going to end that way for us equities but I believe it's also I mean look the FED stepped in with quantitative easing and what is it qe1 and 203 or operation twist was around 2013 then there was qe1 QE2 I forgot how many quantitative easing so they keep stepping in all Fallen apart in September of 2019 but yes thankfully Co came along and gave him an opportunity to throw five Trill into the into the kitty yeah so they cut interest rates and you've got more computers trading now than what you had back in 200 13 so the computers are studying on looking at Market behavior when the fed intervened or they cut rates and then poof it's Off to the Races and then in late 2022 it really looked like the market was going to start to come apart it finds a bottom I think Yellen started doing some things with treasury which caused liquidity to pick back up again and then now you've got a lot of investors especially retail that are just like hey I've been watching this thing run I thought that it was going to end I can't take it anymore I'm going to get in so so there's a huge amount of fear of missing out that's in the psychology of the retail investor right now there's a lot of greed there's a lot of delusion because nobody's really paying attention to the weakness that's potentially under the surface and what makes it hard managing money is Chris we don't know if this is going to run to January 6 is it going to run into April is this going to be like the late 1990s to where Trump's able to do enough initially to where the economy holds up a lot stronger or or are we going to get this Minsky moment where where buns crater in value yields jump and then all of a sudden the market like it did in 1973 says uhoh and then we have this 40 50 60% decline I mean mathematically we should but the question is and what's so hard in managing money right now you got to play the game by the rules that are forced upon you and you got to participate some because what if it lasts three years but this is a highly risky rally and there's all kinds of indications around the edge that the professionals are using this delusion and fear of missing out to offload their shares onto the average retail investor and so I believe for the average retail investor this is probably the most dangerous Market that we have seen in my 26 year career well the the former big pillars so this was easier to analyze when I was younger because there was there was Autos homes and Retail right and if you you just understood those three things you directionally got pretty much what was happening now obviously the government is a very large player in this market um they are a big big chunk of the economy so now you got it that's a fourth leg of the stool and then there's all this other aiee stuff you know AI this and that which we've talked about before again we'll see what what that really turns into but speaking of the retail I mean the the Housing section from the coasy letter new home sales in the most recent report dropped by 128,000 in October to 610,000 lowest in couple of years um significantly below expectations of selling 725,000 new homes you can see the little tick down there not an emergency not an emergency but it's leading to not an emergency this is an emergency but you can clearly see that uh the number of new completed single family houses for sale has been spiking pretty hard here with the rise in interest rates uh no surprise there but still you know normally this would have been something you could look at and go well that that's a sign of economic weakness right there um you're not selling houses they're stacking up doesn't seem to matter anymore I'm not sure what there must be other legs on the stool I don't understand haven't found them yet well I I think it doesn't matter just because the average individual thinks that everything is going to be instantly fixed over the next 12 months I I I really do believe that um and and I know look he won the popular vote but I think it's well more than 60 to 70% of the pop just based on my observation that have all this hope that things are going to be great and Trump's going to be able to solve all of our problems immediately but there's there's some massive hurdles to overcome so that that optimism is an indication of the delusion that we're in because it's okay to be optimistic I'm optimistic if the Chevron you know chevron's done if if we release all this information for the American people instead of our our politicians serving themselves um they moved back to serving the American populace Chris The Innovation that we're going to have come out when these monopolies are no longer protected is going to be incredible because you've been in the business World monopolies don't want Innovation they want to milk every penny that they can out of the product that that they have until they're forced to do something else because it costs money to change that process and reinvest back in So if we can if we can eliminate the protection around the monopolies our quality of life I believe as US citizens are going to increase dramatically we're going to have better products small businesses middle class going to come thriving back again but at the same time that's going to change because when You' got what is it I can't remember the numbers right now but the you know the top stocks are 35 to 37% of the S&P 500 so if their protection is gone then then that's going to cause a a major difference in the overall uh markets and the market should be lower at some point but the average investor is ignoring that right now and they're they're spending like it's going to be all sunshine and rainbows because they have this optimism but they are not taking the time to really think about the risks Associated under the surface that could cause us to stumble and fall and and you know have some bumps and bruises so I think a big area is going to be uh particularly I'm really looking forward to getting some rationality back in our Healthcare System and we're going to be having a a food webinar coming up because you know here's what we've learned Paul we've learned that in the United States the FDA has been absolutely in bed with industry and has just allowed any practice to go through to the point that um you know we've got toxins in our Foods various dyes and colors that don't need to be there that Europe doesn't use that you could use natural colorings like beet juice instead of red dye number 10 whatever um so we've learned all of that and and uh I'm hopeful that we can get rid of a lot of unnecessary healthc care spending now of course this is going to hit the farm industry but just to show you the power of this already did you hear this it turns out that Froot Loop sales are down over 50% week over week just because of that news that came out about all of that RFK jior got on there put a little thing out showed a package up he's like why is all this junk in fro loops and parents caught on and it went vir this is not something you're going to read about in the mainstream news cuz their job is to protect the sales of this company um you know Kellogg got to protect Kellogg despite the fact Kellogg's inarguably been putting stuff in their cereal that's indefensible like why why why why put these nasty chemicals in there well you already said it Paul because they have a monopoly on it and because they can nobody's forced them to spend the extra half a penny per box to do it the right way mhm that's why you you know when you shared that the only thing that I could think of is in the Bible where it says my people die for lack of knowledge and and all that secrecy and all that protection so now the knowledge comes out points it out to parents and the ones that care about their kids immediately make a decision to do something different that that's what we need that's what America is supposed to be and that's why the truth is so important and I hadn't heard that but it doesn't surprise me because I'm I'm starting to see of course Britney one of one of my team just had her second child McKenzie's got uh four kids and they're having these conversations as you've been talking about food webinar and things I've shared with them at the annual Summit and they're reading labels now paying attention sharing information with each other and it's hopeful and especially with the with the food webinar you come you have coming up I cannot wait to to sit in and and listen and learn well it's important stuff I mean if you haven't got your health you know none of it matters so and there's ways we can be lots healthier so um so we we'll see how that all turns out but again it you're right this this that's what that's why I sort of object to watching whoever it is I know they have it's very important to them markets have to go up right and they spend a lot of time massaging that and it's a whole machinery and and I get their their rationale and maybe I'd have the same one sitting in their hot seat Paul I don't know but I look at it and it's just not the truth right you know the truth is letting real people sort of hash stuff out and and settle on what they consider to be reality at that point in time so so we have a lot of unreality out there I I worry that people are going to be harmed for lack of access to information yes that's why I do what I do right it's like yeah this information's out there that's a ridiculously important role I mean the lives that the people that I've talked to hundreds of people around the nation that that say you saved their lives with the information that you shared with them in Co you may not get to hear that all the time but I hear all the different areas that you've shared information that's made life-changing impacts on those who have have listened to you that's a that's a big deal um you know Chris one thing that I'm concerned about is especially with with Biden comes out and says I will not pardon my son I will not pardon my son I will not pardon my son and I know I know I'm going down a rabbit Trail but I'm headed headed to a point here then all of a sudden he comes out with this blanket pardon and I want to table that for a minute because it's just absolutely unbelievable so what I'm worried about is we know how the media acts it's all on technicalities right they that oh Biden created all these jobs after the covid restart you know he claims all these jobs and wants to make himself look great compared to all the Presidents in history but a lot of it was just restarting the economy again okay in technicality they were jobs what I'm concerned about is is are there forces right now that are driving this Market into the end of the year and into the inauguration that once Trump gets there Lord willing he does um the rug comes out then all of a sudden you've got the next three to four years where the media doesn't change their ways and they're like hey you know these stats were the best in the world while Biden and the Democrats were in there and this is what you're facing now I just see all of this planning and deception and and telling I'm gonna tell you one thing and I'm doing something else and maybe I'm being overly cynical because I I mean it looks like the momentum is is is going to be positive in end of the year all indicators are are pointing to that yeah we need a correction but but that's one of the concerns that I have in the background is this all setting up for some technicality to where as soon as Trump gets in there whatever forces are are causing this delusional momentum in the markets um get rug pulled and then the media forces spend the next three to four years saying oh you had it so much better before you had it so much better before I don't know that's just a thought that came to mind what's your thought about that well um look let's be completely honest uh Trump is going to be inheriting a box of lies yeah they were lying about the job market right they were lying about the strength of the econ economy they were lying about inflation they were lying about all of it who knows what we'll find if we really dig under all of that right um and and you mentioned you know the whole jobs thing like oh look at all the jobs that that Biden created presidents don't create jobs in the private sector but they can they can't influence jobs at the at the federal sector so ly Alden put this up just the other day would you look at this billions of dollars that are spent on um you know interest payments you look at this you look at this explosion right here right mhm well the federal jobs has almost the exact same explosion during that same rate if you look at total federal jobs over time they really like I think we piled on like another one and a half almost two million jobs in the last uh few years here so at a minimum if I was just coming in to try and rationalize all this I would say you know what we're just we're just rewinding whoever you hired I don't care what department you are I don't care whether you have contracts on these people um whoever you hired since 2020 just undo it it just start there just we're rewinding right and don't make me mad because I'll make you rewind to 2015 right you know just get it done that's good but you look at this and and just the shape of that chart that ought to really scare people Paul it really should because that's just this looks runaway and you know I thought you probably saw it too today we saw that the Federal Reserve is putting out their first trial balloons to walk back the idea that they're going to be more straight cuts they're having a hard time justifying because inflation's on the rise again and stock markets are all-time highs and H powering higher it's kind of hard to make an a strong statement that we're having you know that we're non-permissive like we have a liquidity problem you know my man my man Sven Henrik points out here you know policy is still restrictive enough this in purple this is jnk and the blue is is the S&P 500 and look at this Paul tick for tick junk bonds high quality stocks same story yeah that's not restrictive policy that's the fed's just got the flood gaze woohoo and uh now they're starting to make their first signs that they're like well people have started to notice maybe we shouldn't cut quite as quickly um and so those are already beginning to come off the table a little bit which means just to back it right up that this isn't going to be correcting anytime soon cuz this is being driven by the rate of interest that the US government principally on the short end of the curve has to pay and if they're not going to cut then this isn't going to come down this is going to keep doing that um why because the government's adding two trillion of new debt that needs to be serviced to this pile every single year so even if it even if it was at 4% if you could somehow get paper out the door at 4% you sold all 10 years 4% of one trillion is another 40 billion a year mhm so another 80 billion would go onto this uh which would be a pretty good chunk minimum well and most debt is pulling future consumption forward so you're spending your future today by borrowing money now if you invest into something that can generate a tremendous amount of income that's great you're investing into manufacturing where it can produce more than the debt that you're paying but all I can think of in that chart right there is you know I've been doing some due diligence for for some clients that are looking to buy some businesses so in that due diligence you're you're trying to pour through everything that you can because every business owner in the three to four years prior to selling the business is going to do everything they can to paint those books as good as possible if I saw a debt chart like that on any business that a client was wanting to invest into you know what I'd tell them Chris I'd say look you I'd take a chance on somebody else buying this but how about you just sit back and wait till they they get into financial trouble and go buy them for pennies on the dollar when they have to go into bankruptcy because because that's not a chart that I would be aggressively you recommending any client aggressively buying I'd wait I'd wait till the inevitable pain and the consequences of their decisions were were came to fruition and then take advantage of buying it so you're not stuck with it Corrections can happen it's fine I actually like them takes the Deadwood out you know mhm I actually I'm this guy I thought GM should have been allowed to go under back in the day um and they're like oh we would lose so much like well Elon showed you could come along and create a whole new car company U you know if you had a new innovator come in and I mean honestly I think somebody ought to just say whoever built the 2005 Toyota Camry hire them because those things won't die dude those things they're still on the road they're so boring you go out every morning they turn on and they go where they're supposed to go and that's the of the story right that's the that's the whole thing you know they operate and I'm sure they're stolen but you know they're not the first car that somebody looks to steal so there's a good chance in a bad area that you can come out and still get in the car so yeah yeah yeah that 2005 Camry that that is like the dragonfly of car Evolution right like no we got it like don't even change it just just keep making those you know until somebody exceeds that level of of reliability yes hey um one thing I did want to share too so Toby Costa um and I like him I know you've referenced him more in the past he he points out you know and I've talked about this before about how the US has just been you know accounting for the large majority it's been the only game in town of the major indexes basically since 2008 what for the past 16 years it's up dramatically and I I can show that chart in a minute but he says US Stocks currently account for 73% of the SCI World index the highest single country waiting ever recorded in its history and course the overwhelming dominance of us equities have attracted the majority of global Capital leaving the rest of the world largely overlooked and underfunded you know at what point does the tide shift we have no clue but look at this chart so this is uh as of October November the 27th 73% compared to all of the rest of the countries of the world so you know one thing that our strategy is designed to do that I'm I'm waiting patiently until the day that that it tells us to shift our focus is when the US is in the lead and you're winning overweight the us but when the day comes that some of those other countries take off and those other economies take off then you can underweight the US and overweight the others but think about that you know when capital's easy you can be sloppy you can be lazy you don't have to run everything efficiently and fine but the rest of these countries in the world not all of them I mean we look at what Germany's doing but you look at South America some of the bricks and these others Portugal's been quite amazing what they've been um Poland Portugal what they've been doing has been quite amazing so they're fine-tuned machine so whenever this this bubble and this this chasing of us equities cuz they're you know now it's there is no alternative back when interest rates low buy equities because of Tina there is no alternative now everybody's saying the Tina is you got to buy us equities because there is no alternative it's unsustainable it really is we don't know when it breaks but again for those investors who are adaptive it's going to be the opportunity of a lifetime some something freaked out I don't know why but the Federal Reserve is desperately afraid of a correction and we almost had one in October of 23 but then it just woke up one night literally I was one of those 2:30 in the morning Chang I'm see the green on my Futures I'm like what's happening so somebody at 2:30 in the morning decided that's enough of that nonsense and we went the other direction but it didn't it wasn't just a wasn't just a little thing so again the Coes letter here talking about not just the strongest stock market we've had in a while but in decades S&P up 26.5% this year be on track for best annual performance in 26 years Paul this year like of all the things happening this year I'm like uh this is our best year ever like try and make sense of that fundamentally but again that doesn't matter at this stage um because we're in a different part of the story but since that October low the S&P is now up an incredible 47% here all those years going back since 1998 every year tracked as a gray squiggle and here's this year on top of it it's now the best ever at this time of the year and might finish as the best stock market ever since 1998 that is wild isn't that wild it is especially with the backdrop yeah well what happened after 1998 that momentum carried for another two years but then we had the 47% decline from 2000 2003 rallied back to even had the 57% decline in 2008 and the S&P 500 went sideways from 20 000 to 2014 late 2013 so you know it was all sunshine and rainbows until it wasn't and I I just don't see how we don't you know this cycle is going to be different my concern is is that we're going to break every historical record depending upon you know what happens over the next 6 12 24 months but um um you know fundamentals are going to come back and reality is going to come back into play at some point in the future future for now we have to participate really with fear and trembling So speaking of the bricks you know we we you know as you know I track a lot of things because I think everything connects and so at Peak Prosperity I'm often tracking things like what's happening in Ukraine or what's going on in the oil markets or how these things connect and and so you know I was very worried there for a while Paul because we saw the US and the UK and then France dialing up to just shoot long-range missiles into Russia and I thought that was a bad idea yes uh because I think I'm allowed to have that opinion and so uh yesterday I find out that Tucker Carlson's back in Moscow because he's going to go straight to the source and he found out while he was there that Jake Sullivan cut off all contact between the US and Russia over two years ago we have no back Channel diplomacy no front door diplomacy nothing no communication and we're lobbing missiles in to Russia so those of us thought that was a bad idea so then Russia shoots this arnik missile and I think I think more than a few of the cognis Senti among the West were like oh oh that that that's a different risk I'm actually at risk now our bunkers are no longer safe so things calmed down well you know what that immediately got replaced by and I did this for my subscribers yesterday so the rubble's now finally getting smoked yeah so in the bricks this is the r in the BR r i s right and the dollar matters less and less on a percentage basis they're doing more in Ruble terms and Yuan terms but but still you know it's it's not unimportant Russian bonds are now around 25.5% ouch right imagine that but now we're now we're turning to the i in the bricks the rupe hits an all-time new low just coincidentally Brazil which is the b in bricks is now over six which is a line they've been defending for a long time and it just smashed right on right on through that and the Chinese Yan lowest it's been in this cycle they they contain it as tightly as they can but as you can see with that red dotted line down there this is the lowest it's been so wouldn't you know it Paul after they failed to stoke a World War by lobbing a bunch of hot stuff into Russia I wake up the next week and I'm like oh every bricks currency is getting smoked right now maybe it's a coincidence I don't know how how would you how would you look at that too too too cynical not cynical enough I don't know play myself anymore I don't think you're too cynical in that case that's I don't believe that that's a coincidence now look I mean I don't do it for clients but I really enjoyed currency trading up until about 2013 when something came in and completely distorted the currency markets um so I still enjoy following them that that's not something that that would just happen out of the blue I mean what's the economic reason behind it you know that happens to come through I mean that's a Warfare tactic is to go after their current and when you look at you hear of what's taking place out of Russia and how their economy is holding up far better than what anybody anticipated you know China's got all kinds of problems so I can understand China a little bit more but Brazil India they're plugging along just just fine based on all the data that we're looking at that doesn't make sense that if it was just China I wouldn't be you know that wouldn't raise my eyebrows that much and wouldn't lead me to cynicism but when you when you're showing we've got the rubble and the rupe and the real the Brazilian real that I don't think that's a coincidence well it it just says that look you know it is Warfare by any other name and I I get it international trade is bare knuckled brawling um and you got Trump in in place now which I if you saw Canada was complaining about some tariffs or something you said hey how about if you just become our 51st state and Trudeau you can be Governor right he just he just he plays it he he definitely Trump has got the yard of the deal down um you know does doesn't play the nice game like you're supposed to you know no that was oh well we our long tradition between our two countries and we value each other and we're going to look for a long and fruitful way to blah he doesn't do that it's like how about you become the 51st state right but he I think he's I think he's I think he's playing hard ball getting ready to play hard ball with with all these countries out there and so well I mean he's he's going to have to because you can see most of most of them have been in support of the deep State and exactly what they've been doing you know from what Canada did to the truckers that's they had the ability to do it a lot easier than what we could have in the United States I guess with with with our laws at this point um so I don't blame him for playing hard ball I looked at it and I was like oh he just gaset the media I can only imagine how this you know I told my wife I said we got to watch the media this afternoon and see what what they're saying about this and we we did and I came home and I was like look I don't want to watch the media so let's just turn it off yeah well you know let me tell you what I'm hopeful about though I am really hopeful that we can start to reverse this administrative State you know where 1,000 pages of rules becomes 10,000 becomes 70,000 becomes whatever um I heard somebody I forget who it was but some organization maybe a think tank anyway they'd added up maybe it's a Heritage organization said how many laws or rules acting like laws does the federal government have and the answer is 300,000 300,000 wow 300,000 ways to get in trouble right you know and um and so that's just it's just way past the apog of that St hopefully we can get some rationality back in on this um you know quick example not to pick on my town but bless their hearts they put a rule in against tiny homes they're like no we don't want those right like and and and our town by the way could use any help it could get at this stage right but somebody decided that was a bad thing because you know they I think it was a tax decision like you know we can only tax tiny they're going to be worthless so we can only can't tax them enough so not on balance they're going to cost us I guess but I'm over here looking at it like look if young people can't afford starter homes why would you pass a rule to say we don't want young people in our town it just I don't it's very it just they didn't think it all the way through you know that's the kind of rules that just sort of come forward make sense to somebody and next thing you know you have to live under it and I would submit that my town is a fractal representation of all the towns out there and we're suffering because of the rules that we've imposed upon ourselves they're not helpful anymore nobody can even justify them like this rule how does it make your life better yeah or my life better like it's a stumper doesn't make sense so our local County the county that I grew up in did the same thing about two years ago they banned the tiny homes and I don't I don't understand that like if you want to live in a tiny home that doesn't even go with The Narrative of you know going green and reduce your carbon footprint and all that because a tiny home reduces the carbon footprint so why in the world are you trying to to stop people from having affordable homes I I don't I don't understand that any way whatsoever because they're telling us reduce your carbon footprint but oh you can't reduce your carbon footprint that doesn't make sense at all no it doesn't I I don't I have dim memories of it because we moved out when I was six but I'm pretty sure now that I'm an adult I can add it up two bedrooms sort of a split L thing come down into a living room and there was a kitchen that was it bathroom maybe a th000 square ft maybe that's what that's the home I grew up we're four of us in there yeah you had four in there and two bedrooms so you shared a bedroom with with a sibling didn't you yep yeah yep thousand square feet people would not can't live in that anymore they did they did they ban a thousand square foot home in your local municipality I can't remember what the square footage is here locally uh I can't remember what it is off but you know was it was the tiny home designation which I think is somewhere in the 400 to 500t Zone but again if somebody wants to solo live in that right you know you get a bedroom you have a kitchen you got a bathroom why not why would you not allow somebody to live in something I don't even understand and but it gets me back to my earlier point which is I actually Paul if I could support something we would do away with income tax and property tax I think neither of them is is rightful neither of them comp with this idea of freedom or Liberty I rent from my local government you rent from your local government everybody who has a a property rents it from their local government and by which I mean if you don't pay your taxes they take it from you that's a rental Arrangement yes they do and it'll go to the courthouse steps and it'll be sold for the T for the back taxes and then if you don't deal with it within one year then uh is it one year I think you have one year to deal with it and maybe in the second year you forfeit the property I can't remember the details exactly but you can lose a paid for home because you get into a bind and you don't pay your property taxes you let me go further you will lose your home oh yeah you will lose your home you're right you know the sad part is Chris all of this government money printing to to Party Like It's 1999 you know I I do unfortunately in my in my business in my world we deal with people who have money right that I mean fortunately and unfortunately so I do volunteer my time for those people who just don't have money to be able to to work with somebody like us because they're not going to get access unless I volunteer my time they're not going to get access to somebody that can help them make some tough decisions and usually what happens is they're dealing with those individuals that are s selling these high commission products to where they invest $10,000 and the person makes $1,000 off of whatever goes in there so I make sure I spend some time and one of the saddest things for me especially working through the local food pantry and some of the others is individuals that are in their 80s they they didn't come from a home that taught them how to manage money they didn't go to a college that I mean the schools don't teach anybody how to manage money anymore but they they just didn't have the knowledge right so they end up in a situation where the only thing that they have is Social Security but they did fight tooth and nil to get their home paid for you know and here they are they can't go back to work Social Security isn't keeping up with the cost of living they're having higher medical expenses because even you know the medical system is is raping those who who are unfortunate as well yes it covers things but there's still extra costs that that add up over time and all they're trying to do is figure out how to keep their homes and keep their properties to cover their Property and Casualty Insurance and their property taxes and unfortunately several of them the only option that they had to be able to make in meets is do these reverse mortgages on the property that they shouldn't have to you know so you know we're fortunate because in our area or Gilmer County the one area in North Georgia um those over 65 don't pay school taxes so that reduces that burden a lot but still taxes are going up so fast in a lot of these areas um because of poor investments in the past that it's it's crushing those that are overlooked in our society because they they don't have the ability to generate revenue for most people to be able to pay attention to them and and it's it's heartbreaking that's not what we're supposed to do as a society that's not what we're supposed to do as a people and I haven't thought hard about how to fix it but that's a problem that needs to be to be dealt with so doing away with property taxes is one way to deal with it well you know I I was talking with a gentleman recently who's from Cook County uh in Illinois so that's Chicago his yearly property tax in his home is more than the purchase price of the home when he bought it in the 70s oh my goodness on a yearly basis I forget he paid 23 Grand or something now it's 24 Grand in in property taxes per year right that's crazy like you can't you can't get by with that but um but beyond that you know this brings us back to the rule of 72 so we just had this in our town you know the the local school board and these people are Nazis um you know they they will as soon as you don't give them exactly what they want which is a 5% increase on a yearly basis this year they were asking for 4.9 you know they throw a hissy fit and they cut the most popular after school program so the parents get all mad and you know apply pressure right they don't talk about the fact that it used to be you know if this is the growth in students and this is the growth in teachers this is the growth in administrators right so we got a lot of Administrators $250,000 salaries I'm like maybe we could just trim I don't know what would happen if no administrator showed up would kids not learn that day I'm not clear what would happen but you know so they got their little thing they're running but but this is the rule of 72 if a 5% increase per year that means that school budget is going to be twice as large every 14 years that's how compounding Works twice as large so if you're spending 20,000 per student which is a thing that happens now that used to be private tuition Paul this public schools are demanding 20 grand a student right it's 196 in our area here not a fancy wow well that'll be 40 Grand a student and then it'll be 80 grand a few more doubling Cycles right and and so the question is well eventually that just breaks anybody can see that it's just math and you're saying it's already it is already breaking for a lot of elderly people it is I mean what are you getting on what are you getting on Social Security I'll round I'll round three grand a month oh well if you're lucky there's individuals that are out there that are in their 80s right now that are only getting 16,700 a month yes that could be property tax 100% if you're that poor guy in Chicago it sure could be you know at a minimum if you if that individual in Chicago if he purchased that house in 1978 and he didn't move you know then then his he shouldn't be charged a higher appraise value at this point I do believe that that's criminal and that's just another way that the government Creeps in but it's a machine they don't they don't really care and you're right that's one of the things I've looked at at our local community and my wife gives me a hard time she's like I'm in the school system so be quiet I'm like honey you know me I can't be quiet but I will be respectful mhm there's way too many administrators and and they they're a bunch of paper pushers to please the government that brings me to a conversation I had today pretty interesting so I sit down with a client and I have the capacity for whatever reason Chris to be able to get along with both sides in most cases so client sits down and and I knew it was coming and um I'll say I'll say he he or she it doesn't matter M looks at me and says so are you going to help me move out of the country now that Trump's elected and I said I can't remember what I said I said something along the lines is like well you're want to leave the country and and they were like not really you know I've got too many family and things like that but I'm really worried that it's going to be a mess all of these people that he's bringing in are unqualified and I said I said really I said well I said let me ask you this do you agree that change needs to take place the direction we're headed they were like yes and I said so you know you're concerned that they're not educated in the way that things have been done but the way that things have been done are leading Us in the wrong direction so are we not better off just to pick somebody off the street and put them in that position so that they're not educated in the wrong direction and make a change and they looked at me for a second and they thought you know that's a pretty good point but I'm still scared to death and I said yeah there's a lot of hurdles to overcome I said but we got to make a different decision and you know and that could have gone bad but it really had not crossed their mind that having somebody with a different set of eyes in there and a different education maybe not quite trained to the point that that that they have to follow the same path could be better and you know maybe I'm fortunate that they are open up open-minded enough to have that conversation but you know there's this there's this belief that you have to have all these administrators well really good superintendent and a really good secretary is about all you need in the administrative area of the school system except for the fact that you got all these government regulations that you got to push papers for to fill out and all these measurements to take place and if we could gut those government regulations then we could get that cost out of the education system but unfortunately there's going to be a lot of people lose their jobs in that case too and and we need that Chris we've got to endure that pain to move people into creative productive positions instead of paper pushing position and just because you're trained with some certificate that puts you in the administrative Halls of power in the school system doesn't mean that you're serving the students or the people I agree you know what Paul I I just want to unleash um the the good people of this country to just do what they're going to do right yeah and and so we saw there's lots of I know it's out of the news cycle but I just did this on my signal Hour podcast just came out talking about what's going on in Western North Carolina and it turns out oh there's still 5,000 displaced families and FEMA doing nothing and all of this stuff but and that's not true FEMA doing one thing they're seeking to install a $280,000 gate to prevent people from using the road that the West Virginia Miners magically rebuilt when everybody said it couldn't be done these guys are like oh yeah we'll get that done we work with loose soil all the time we're miners right and they just they built this road back up to Batcave so the people could at least get back and forth It's you know it's not pretty I'm sure it's bumpy but it works so the government's role instead of going wow we should learn from this a little embarrassed we didn't know how to do this now let's put a gate on it stop people from using it no way that is so it's evil that's evil you're exactly right that's evil instead of going hey you guys just pulled off something come over here and help us because we got to get to these people it's we're educated and we're better than you so get out of our way we're going to shut it down none of that makes sense to me the only thing the only word that works is you're right Chris that's evil well speaking of of this is when I when I know that that like I'm just so astonished with um what people can do um is this so so this is the Blue Lagoon here where I I've been you know it's this beautiful uh hot tubby area in in Iceland and it's being attacked by this volcano and it's like there's all this there's all this lava headed a certain direction well wouldn't you know it um the people in raiki viic figured out how to to take the lava and they sprayed a whole bunch of water on it and they hardened It Up In One Direction and got it to go another Direction and they saved their tourist attraction okay wow so I learned that if you give people a volcano oh they'll figure out what they need to do you get some smart guys and gals on there they start spraying water on it and they start oh if I cool it this way it starts to bend a little you got there's like people who can put it on their resume now I'm a professional lava Handler like is awesome right it didn't require a government to write regulations and books and training manuals and assess fent penalties and fees with a licensing operation you know and a permit they just got out there and said what needs doing and they fixed it I that's I believe in people I don't believe in organizations clumps of people that we call government to fix stuff I just don't I'm with you and it's a level of arrogance Chris they need to that we need to unleash the American people but there are people that dropped down uh School in the eighth grade because they had to take care of their families I have three clients that that had an eighth grade education and they've accumulated a massive amount of wealth because they were humble enough to ask a lot of questions they didn't really they didn't still to this day don't feel educated enough to where they're they they feel smart but they're brilliant because they ask a lot of questions they're voracious Learners and they're problem solvers so you you got these individuals that somebody that graduates you know with these degrees and gets this certificate and hey you know you should hire me because I'm from this institution look down upon the person that graduated the eth grade or then they're jealous you know they justify it and say they're you know well well they were lucky you know they they couldn't have done that smart and and we're missing out on so many people that are a part of this country one thing about Americans is we're Fighters we're Innovative we're creative and and if you unleash the American people and stop predicting these monopolies it's going to be far better regardless of what the markets do and quite frankly I'd rather have the markets go sideways for 12 years and hope in the middle class come back and have small businesses where when I travel over to Alabama or another town hey there's this great new business that's not a Walmart that has these Innovative products that I may not be able to find somewhere else and open up the power of the American people and bring back the joy of the middle class instead of you know kind of like the Hunger Games where you've got the capital that's so detached from everybody else and they've got their boot on the the small business trying to hold back that Innovation to protect their own position because quite frankly most of them inherited it they didn't earn it and and that's the problem that we have right now I agree you know I bet we could pull a lot of people individually sort of my age and and ask them would you take a big old decline in the the stock market if it meant your kids could start out their investing life from a reasonable valuation I'd say yeah do it I wouldn't even think about it like yep yeah yep but I got to tell you Paul these people you know I'll speak for my generation for the moment um really disappointed you know with with the Boomers who are just they're just so greedy like like I got mine and they want to keep it and they want you know that's what that's what the Federal Reserve did can we just be clear about this they didn't rescue the markets they rescued asset holders whether you held real estate or you held stocks and bonds that's who they rescued they bailed them out fine but when you sort of look at that from a sociological standpoint you find out that was a that's a narrow band that isn't everybody that's a very narrow band of people of a specific age right so they basically said this little box we're going to we're going to save this little box of people why was it debated was it discussed did you vote for it no no and no it was just what they did yeah you know yeah well and and there's a belief that there's the trickle down economics and and quite frankly Chris there was a period of time where there was a lot of trickle down economics and I know there's some truth to that but it's been distorted this at this point because here's the thing you take my team Renee has worked with me for 20 years Carrie has worked with me for 20 years Britney's for 15 Dylan for 12 we're a family right so the better that we do in the business the better they do across the board I don't I don't you know my head's on The Chopping Block if something goes wrong I'm the one that everybody comes after so yes I have to reserve a little bit larger uh part of the pie because I'm carrying that extra risk that's just part of what happens in business but they're you know we make sure that they're very well compensated and I've seen I've seen so many businesses and business owners that built that business that had those employees that were just as crucial to that business being built that were overpaying all their employees when they sold the practice and then private Equity or somebody else comes in and you know what the first thing they do Chris is they gut all of the the the high paid longtime Foundation employees that that are the most valuable that's in that business so that they can strip the profits out for their own pocket there was a time where there was Integrity when you had a lot of small businesses in our country I believe that top down Trickle down Economics work because because there was the integrity to take care of those people but for whatever reason we've moved into a point in time in our country now where we're so self-serving in in the corporate business model that is hey I'm going to go buy that business and I'm going to be efficient which means I'm going to gut all of the high-pace employees because I'm a monopoly right and I have no much uh not much competition because I have access to Capital on Wall Street that the person next door me doesn't have I'm going to cut my services your services going to be worse your product is going to be worse but man my profitability is going to be great and look that's the world that I have to swim in because I have to help people grow their money but we have a moral problem in our country that I'm hoping will change and and all we have to do Chris is get the government regulations out of the way because they're protecting the monopolies they're not protecting the environment for everyone that's protecting the environment and I'm just picking this number out of thin a there's probably 25 that are protecting a monopoly and even the banking system you know after all the banks went down in 2008 they've raised the barrier of Entry to to start a new local bank to the point that you can't do it it's just not worth the risk associated so now you've got a few banks that are making decisions out of out of a town or a city hundreds of miles away to impact your local community and it doesn't matter what your reputation is in the local community because a handshake and your character doesn't matter when you go to get a loan anymore what matters is what that Central planner at that monopolized bank in another um uh City think should take place in your local area and we we've got to get that fixed I don't know how they fix it but I hope they do me too that was what was so frightening about that Mark andreon interview on Joe Rogan which was he talked about at least in one part of that that the plan that they told him about at the White House was to create this overarching AI Control layer with just a few companies in charge of everything interfacing with the government to make sure the right things are done and as we learned recently right things often mean my political opponents are targeted harassed and processes punishment you know drag them down not really charged with anything you know but you have to defend yourself very expensive in time and money you know so so that's yeah no let's not go that direction but wasn't that wasn't that the fundamental thing between people who want freedom and people who want more Authority right that that's the fundamental break that that happened there I think people just said you know I'm done I'm tired of the gaslighting I'm tired of being lied to you know this was really offensive to me just yesterday I find out that Biden somehow they flew his old self to Africa and he pledged a billion dollars to help Africa rebuild from floods and nothing is being done virtually nothing is being done for our own American citizens in North Carolina except for building gates to reduce the Innovation and access to individuals right I I was heartbroken over that I don't understand you know Chris what that reminds me of is is a family where you have this one individual that is probably the worst narcissist in the world right that goes out and paints this great picture to everybody else but treats their family like hell at home and that's what it is that there's no caring for the American people it's like oh let's go make myself look good in in Africa and maybe they'll they'll record me good in their books I I mean maybe I'm too cynical in thinking that but it's absolutely ridiculous you know I mean it it's so ridiculous it lead the first question that comes to my mind is okay the evidence tells us Ukraine's a a a money laundering uh program so who in Africa is he paying off to have it lineing back into his own Pockets like literally that's all I can think of because we've got good people in North Carolina not even what happened in Hawaii and and and they're abandoning them why do we not spend resources on our own people a billion dollars I can't remember how many $450,000 houses I can't remember if it was a billion or8 billion that Ma's not necessarily easy to do y'all but well for a billion that would be I'm just in top of my head 2,200 roughly yeah 2 2222 yeah so I mean that's a dramatic impact that can be made in that local community we have to take care of our own people first before cuz it's their responsibility to take care of them once our family's taken care of yes we can be generous and step out and take and help another family but we have to take care of our own people first and and that just makes me so ridiculously angry well that that's the first thing I would do if I was well I would do a lot of first things if I was Trump first thing I would do is I would just have a full-blown federal investigation into election election practices any fraud I found I don't care if it it was a GOP person a DNC I don't care libertarian I don't care but I'd be coming in hard and find people who were committing fraud and that would be the end of that long prison sentences very public you know trials make sure everybody sort of understood what they just witnessed um stop that so that would be part one but uh but anything that we could do now so you know we've talked about it before but I am really impressed with what Javier Malay has managed to do in just a little over a year in Argentina they're gonna have eight and a half perc GDP growth this year the vacum wera Shale is on Pace now to have a million barrels a year they're going to be in oil exporter they were an energy Wast you know an importing impoverished Nation they he fired he just act like half the government agencies just gone you know like I gotta be honest I would wake up and I would have a double fist pump of cheer if I wake up read the newspaper and it's like Department of energy disbanded you know Department of Education disbanded like just start just like just get rid of them as a starting point potentially see what happens right yeah hey my favorite video clip that I saw is when Javier Malay goes in there and he've got all these I guess they were magnetic strips and he's grabbing them gone gone I was like yes let's see how this goes but he set the president I mean really he's a path cutter so he comes in there and just absolutely upends of course course Elon Musk goes in and buys Twitter and just guts the whole place and everybody said that that it would be impossible and Twitter's fart x x it should be X that takes me forever to learn that but it is it is so far superior to anything that it ever has been in the past that it's amazing and it keeps getting better every week and every month so now that should lead the you know give confidence to the Trump Administration the dogee council and everybody that's there just wrecked the whole system because it's not working for the American people and what is working will clearly rise to the top you know if they just you know if we wake up and they said we're going to have a moratorium on building codes in Massachusetts for the next five years see what happens you know what happened nothing except for building probably that's right well I if I'm if I'm having a house build it's in my interest to make sure that it's not built in a shoddy way that it's going to fall down I don't need codes to tell me that right no you know I know what I'm looking at people I trust people will do what what's in their best interest you know they sure will and if you do it bad then when you try and sell it you guess what you can get a bad price because somebody's going to have that thing looked at and say no I don't want that's right by that but anyway that I I really I'm hoping we can get to that point because you know what Paul I talk about this a lot in my other other life which is that we have a math problem built into our overall system of money at this point in time it's it's gone exponential on the debt and you know we're just doing all this stuff and and so there's going to have to be some kind of a reset at some point it's going to be a little painful um and it's rooted in this crazy uh Austrian School of Economics idea which is that if you live too far beyond your means for a period of time you got to live below your means for a little period of time just how it is and we've been living way beyond our means pretending like it doesn't matter right so it will and I know then you have to translate that into actual tactics that people would pursue because what do you do with that information you know if our money system is really that math problem me what do you do right and uh yeah It's Tricky right it's not even a coin flip for me or this coin has eight heads and just two tails right um there's at least an 80 plus percent chance in my mind that that we just try and print our way out of it because that's what we we're going to do yeah which means inflation and that that M Minsky moment that we started out you started out talking about with Paul tutor Jones you know and and what's interesting is if you're going to be short the long end of the curve what's the one thing that you should be long on the uh uh in the interim period which has not been great in its performance since the election this is not a recommendation I got to back out of that a little bit but one would be inclined to be long gold on the shorter end if you're going to be short those treasuries on the longer end MH because one it's either default risk that he's talking about right and and gold has no creditor so it'll maintain that purchasing power if we did have a deflationary environment so you don't have to worry about the default on the other side and if it's inflationary which I'm assuming that that's what he's pointing to that's what the math looks like it's going to end up being then that gold silver um would be Hedges and one thing that's interesting now look I I mean I'm I'm open I struggle with the cryptocurrencies the Bitcoin is this it like it's not been tested but one thing it is telling us from a longer term standpoint with its move and Gold's longer term move where it is here the monetary system is changing and we're only going to know exactly how it changes before too long but gold and and the crypto for some seem to be the area that a lot of individuals are going into to say hey I'd rather own this than than the US dollars at this point or any other currencies so we won't know what it's telling us until we have the benefit of hindsight but there's a lot of things bubbling under the surface that leads me to believe that this is a pause in Precious Metals for a while and that that you know from my opinion you should talk to an advisor not a recommendation this is just my opinion for educational purposes that you should seriously consider buying any dips that arise over the next six months agree so if this plays out like um say 2009 remember so we had the big dip but then there was this recovery then there was this huge dip back into the into the spring um this feels a little like 07 to me I guess this stage right you just have this this climb this Relentless climb but if you look underneath and you see The Insider selling and the volume's kind of Disappearing and drying up and you know starting to get overc concentrated in a couple of couple of big names you know and all of that um yeah cuz I'm you know I I don't want to be just like that ever skeptical guy but I'm I'm watching all this excitement over Ai and I'm just like well where's the business case I use it I use I use AI right I use it to help me structure things but I'm looking at I'm like really what is the business case and at best I can come up with a neutral business case which is it helps a company fire a lot of workers so that's good for the company but it's not good for the workers that's right it's good for the company but it might not be good for the economy which is still structured around this idea that we all have productive jobs and we go out and because of that we're individual economic units and we do things like take out mortgages on houses and buy cars and things like that so so I'm still waiting for that thing that says AI is going to create brand new wealth that is then shared liberally with everybody somehow I haven't figured it out yet but if you have a if you have an idea on that let me know I I can see how it can be spectacularly good for individual compan compies but it's going to that's because it's going to allow them to either do a lot more with less or fire a lot of people well inherently technolog is deflationary so so if it let's say it's that good Chris and now nobody has a job right you've got a hand you got five individuals well now all of a sudden they're you know they own it all right that's not that's not where we want to be as individuals but let's say if it's not that great but it does eliminate 20% of the workforce that's out there well that is deflationary where are their jobs going to go the American people are are Innovative right but still if AI is that good across the board there's there it can take away a lot of innovation so that is deflationary so yeah it might be good towards the company's bottom line but if they can't sell more you know if they're selling 20% less products because there's 20% less people employed and 20% less uh ability to spend money then that is going to imp the bottom line and the markets at some point down the road and then it's going to Compound on itself as time goes along so I'm I I I I know that it's useful it shortcuts several things for me but it's nowhere near the point that I don't have you know that I don't need all the the staff that I have now it just makes them a little more efficient at their jobs so still waiting for that Killer Business case I'm I you know they're spending as if it's that's a proven thing but I'm not I'm not clear it's a business driver here this may be more of a political even defense driver at this stage um because there's this idea of what's called a digital Canyon that the first country or entity that cracks over into some sort of like super AI will will will always remain so far ahead of its competitors Because by the time they've cracked that same territory you're already well beone to creates a digital Canyon that that can't be crossed anymore um that's the idea I don't actually know what it fully means in practice but we'll see I hate to say this but there is a book that tells us that there's a point in the future that if you don't agree that you will not be able to buy sell trade or do anything and all I can think of is with the computing power of AI it can you know it really could monitor every behavior of every person around the entire Globe so to an extent it's absolutely terrifying to me um was this a bestselling book by any chance yes it's the historical bestselling book that's out there I think it is yes of all books sold throughout history or giv away it is the number one and it happens to be in the book called Revelation which is actually very interest so I believe has a distinction to being the first book mass-produced on the Gutenberg Press so a lot of first there you know I actually did not know that Chris and I'm ashamed to admit that so it's it was the first book to be mass produced that makes sense though it really does but I didn't know that statistic I believe that's correct I'll look that back up again just to be I heard that a long time ago um but uh well sorry got dark real quick well you know I don't so you maybe you've seen but but for my subscribers at Peak Prosperity we' had this just wonderful conversation I started it up by by um doing a piece on this thing called mous Topia which was a a social experiment run with mice where they created a Utopia no Predators all the food you could want all the water cages cleaned no pressures on the mice none so predictably they read up until they sort of occupied the space it got a little crowded and then Paul turns out they lost their will to live for some reason and the population crashed to zero and then somebody else at the site was commenting that they done the same experiment with worms in essence right that again you know given the choice between taking a path that would take them to a desiccated death or a moist you know survival eventually they just choose death right um and so the the idea is that what if um natural law God has programmed into us the need to struggle the need to have an edge the need to to be challenged in some way shape or form and that so then even the illustrious Allure of AI to me sounds like a dystopia because it's basically saying oh don't worry you won't have to make decisions anymore you won't have to remember what you even like it'll order things for you you won't have to remember to you won't like it's basically the promise of AI is to take away all the challenges of life I'm pretty sure that leads to organisms losing their sense of meaning and purpose right right I who I forget who it was it might have been Hayek um or was it nii who said that he said ah it's easy to trip up socialists they say oh we're going to create this Utopia and I Sayre when humans finally get to Utopia the last about 20 minutes before they just Revolt they're going to need some drama in their life they're going to need a little something something you know and and you know they'll have to they'll have to recreate that so I actually think that's part of the other tension I said Freedom versus authoritarianism but there are people who understand that that you build character you build a good life any your relationship with your wife your partner um your relationship with your kids what you do as a business person all of it is defined by how much you put into it the greatest impacts that I've had in my life at the moment or the greatest lessons that I've learned that have shaped me for the better at the time where the darkest days that I'd had in my life and I didn't think things could get better and on the other side of it I look back and I thank the Lord for taking me through those periods of time because either I was prepared to be able to help somebody walk through their dark day or I was better prepared and stronger for something down the road that was coming that I couldn't see and so I do believe that that struggle and gives us meaning to life right like we we we battled we overcame or we even battled and lost but we battled and that's the most important thing we strive for a better future and I love the Optimus Creed I used to I don't have I haven't had time to participate in the Optimus Club locally but the one part of their Creed I'll never forget we learn from the mistakes of the past and we press on to the greater achievements of the future or you know to forget learn and forget the mistakes of the past and press on to the greater achievements of the future and that's what makes it so wonderful to live in a place like the United States States and that's what made it so wonderful to build our our our country Foundation because you didn't have the monopolies with their boot on the neck of the average individual or shoulder holding them down that's what our Founders left but now we're we have as a country allowed that same risk to creep back into the system of course Mark and dreon you know laid out um that it was a lot worse than any of us inti ipated to be the the de banking thing Chris I did not realize that it was that bad I've known of a few people that have been debanked because they were real popular I had no clue that it was that prevalent in our country and that's evil yeah and and and um I I had a banking person sort of reach out and explain the details of it and there's a lot of nuance and complexity back there and they do have some real issues they have to struggle with but at the end of it I said to her um yeah but the like the f L CCC or or Children's Health defense like like like companies that were just you know entities that are just sort of ideologically against whatever the Pharma people were up to when they're getting debanked that has nothing to do with trying to make the world a better place you know that's something else so so I think that's again bifurcate everything good and evil I think that that's really you know people just got fed up with all the lies all the gaslighting all the ant sort of human behaviors and frankly anti-democratic and anti- capitalist like anti- a lot of things basically anti-American that just crept too far and now we're in the process of cleaning that up and I hope we can do it quickly and um more like Javier Malay people got upset beat some pots and pant but got on with their lives I hope that's that's about as noisy as it gets when when we do the same thing and I hope we can get it done you know I hope so too I am hopeful and I'm excited that we don't have group things think coming into a lot of these positions that are out there we need a fresh set of eyes we need a fresh set of individuals to come in and I can't tell you how many times that I'll pull somebody in that has no investment experience at all and I'm like look I want your opinion here's why we do what we do what am I missing and every now and then I guess this about seven years ago I had somebody ask me a question well why do you do it that way and I was like how would you do it and they shared an idea and I was like that's brilliant because I you know you're trained in the industry and sometimes you get these these blinders on and and there's everybody has something to offer Chris even the most foolish individual has something to offer and that's the problem we don't respect individuals anymore respect our average individuals there's this level of Pride that we have especially in the halls of power that I know better than you and there's and that reminds me there's a way that seems right to a man and in the end it leads to death so I'm hopeful that we're we're going to get in there sh they're going to get in there the Trump Administration is going to get in do what they say they do roll up their sleeves fight what fights need to be fought I know Elon Musk is not scared of a fight and do what's right for the American people and get the government serving the American people again and you know how I know that it'll be working is when we pick up the phone and call Social Security and they go hi how can I help you instead of hello hold on just a second I got to finish this phone call you know click yeah sorry I couldn't help it well I'm hopeful too we got to make it to January 20th at this point in time we're recording this early December here so um let's hope that that everything just goes along and and we get some fresh people in and we just can keep moving um that that's that's my sincere hope in this holiday season so with that thanks everyone for listening Paul thanks for your time anybody who wants to talk to Paul Andor his amazing team please go to Peak Financial investing.com fill out the form somebody will be back in touch with you within about 48 business hours couple days you could have a one-on-one with with Paul and his team and it's so worth it such a such a great thing so Paul thanks for your time today and um gosh I guess we'll see you next week yes see you next week I look forward to it Chris all right until then bye everybody hope you enjoyed this and we'll be back [Music]