Market Outlook: Hosts see a high-probability equity correction with the S&P hovering near key 50-day triggers as CTA/vol-targeting flows risk flipping post-opex and post-Nvidia earnings.
AI/Nvidia (NVDA): Nvidia is framed as the AI market’s general; a beat is expected but guidance and “sell-the-news” risk are pivotal, with an implied earnings move ~6% and a break below its 50-day seen as a market-wide trigger.
Leadership Narrowness: Breadth deterioration persists, small caps have broken their 50-day and made lower lows, and the equal-weight S&P appears in distribution, heightening downside vulnerability.
Financials & High Yield: XLF is topping and a break sub-52 would be a key canary; a meaningful high yield (junk) breakdown typically accompanies 10%+ equity corrections.
USD & FX Volatility: The US dollar is a buy-the-dip candidate in risk-off; currency vol is too cheap, making USD calls and FX vol straddles attractive hedges.
Commodities: Gold likely remains in a multi-month correction before its next leg higher (long-term bullish), while crude oil shows asymmetric upside with bearish sentiment and potential catalysts that could spark a sharp rebound.
Uranium: Uranium equities’ implied vol has doubled, reflecting elevated policy/event risk; options are rich, making structures challenging despite the strong underlying narrative.
South Korea (KOSPI): The index is highly concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix; elevated vol and extreme AI-leverage make it a useful barometer and a potential short leg versus QQQ in a relative trade.
Transcript
[music] Hit it. It's Friday, November 14th, 2025, episode 278. I'm Patrick Sesna. And I'm Kevin Mure. This week it's a no guess show. So for those who tune in solely to hear what smarter folks think, we'll see you next week. For everyone else, stay tuned for Patrick's talking charts where he answers the question on everyone's mind. Is this the start of a bigger decline in the US stock market? >> Yeah. Well, listen. Normally I invite Danny on here to uh introduce the beer. We we gave him the week off right now, but uh so I'm going to introduce my own beer. So I'm going to drink the Flying Monkeys Paranormal uh Imperial Pumpkin Ale. So we're doing a pumpkin ale in the spirit of the fall. Uh it was just after Halloween here. So we're going to give this a go and see how how this tastes in the interm. Why don't you or or why don't you just go on with the uh disclaimer here, buddy? >> All right. Nothing in this podcast should be viewed as investment advice. Listeners should consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding topics mentioned in this show. Side effects of too much huddle may include having to drink pumpkin beer. um rate right rate hike residue disorder, the tech titan tension tremor and then finally this is something that I am suffering from the Nevada Nevada Nvidia earnings euphoria disorder otherwise known as the need. There you go. Well, listen, this is an awful beer. I'm I just a disclaimer to everyone. This this uh this is gonna get a bad rating. Okay. All right, buddy. Uh so um uh let's let's get to the charts. >> So Patrick, there's lots going on. We're kind of at a crucial point in the markets. I'd love to hear what you're thinking here. >> Listen, uh things are getting spicy. >> Yes, that's there's no other way to to to to put this. uh we uh had on the S&P now four attempts to break below the 50-day moving average each time including today in the middle of the morning uh like let's call this uh the afternoon session start of the afternoon session almost um with the market breaks below the 50-day and the bulls come in save it and take it off the the edge of the cliff. Uh why this 50-day moving average? It's not like a 50-day moving average is this magical uh you know technical uh holy grail, but it is actually a very good deptor of trend. Like if you observe the S&P and almost all the stocks uh like the MAG7s that got above their 50-day moving averages have more or less in the last six plus months stayed above there without violating them once. So, it's a very good way of just having a a rule of thumb of, you know, is a stock trending um at at a one point. The the but the relevance of this 50-day moving average right now is that a lot of the systematic CTA triggers just so happen to at this moment be lining up with a lot of the uh uh the levels just below this 50-day. And so we're in a situation where uh you know when when we look at things from a bearish perspective, there's two kind of ways to break it down. There are those people that are bearish on the AI bubble and there's those people that are trying to in the big picture ask is this the major turning point of the AI story? We'll talk about Nvidia in a moment uh on on the markets. Um and that in itself could lead to uh because the waiting of these MA uh MAG7s and other um major semiconductors are so big, it's going to be very hard for the S&P 500 on a market cap basis to make any progress if there's a correction going on in these stocks. So there's that one theme, but there's a a second theme which is just uh the reality of flows. And when a market rallies this far, a part of that rally was many CTAs, volt targeting funds and um gamma dealer positioning stuff, uh Vanna flows. All these things were tailwinds for the market that actually allowed there to be a natural bull trend to be occurring. And we're just from a, you know, a quantitative and technical perspective looking at where can those flows pivot, where can those people that were buying all along systematically without discretion, without emotion be forced to hit the bid and uh and create that air pocket that can create a much deeper and uh and clearer uh kind of breakdown in the markets. And [snorts] so I want to separate the two because as far as I'm concerned, we've been long overdue for this kind of five plus percent market correction. Uh like uh going back to the start of decade uh back to 2020, there have been uh over 20 market corrections of 5% or greater and on average they have uh occurred three to four times a year. So the fact that we have basically since April uh going over six months gone without a 5% correction has made this the 100 percentile of not only the longest period without a 5% correction this decade but it's also the steepest rally we've had uh this decade without a 5% correction. And so some sort of mean reverting correction is overdue. And when some sort of trigger is hit and whatever the catalyst drives that trigger, um the stock market's going to go through a correction. It's just this what it does all the time. And uh and so let's first look at this purely from that correction perspective and then we could talk AI afterwards and and the potential turning points. So if we have a legitimate close below the 50-day and more importantly the first period from which the market breaks to lower lows um it is very likely that the selling will uh the sellers will hit that bid pretty hard and we could have some sort of a a deeper more meaningful market correction. uh to me the target zones when those triggers are hit and that the thing is the debate is is the trigger imminent. I still believe the trigger is much more likely be going to be uh post Nvidia's earnings and maybe even post opex uh next week on Friday we have the big option expiration. Um it we could hold in for three, four, five more trading sessions before uh the vulnerabilities there. But I don't think there has been a more vulnerable moment in the market than actually right now. >> Yeah. >> Uh uh and uh and we're uh before even let's say two weeks ago we were two to 300 S&P points uh above trigger points which is the market at any point could have dropped 200 points and the bulls could easily still save it because it didn't create the feedback mechanism of selling. But with us now trading down to this trigger, not only did we hit it uh uh back on that Friday sell-off, but again, here we are another Friday and uh once again coming right down to that level. We're at a situation where the triggers are persistently rising and the market is no longer rising. And so the triggers are becoming closer and closer to where the price is, making it the the best analogy to give is that the market is persistently stepping closer and closer to an edge of a cliff. And we're just waiting to see whether it loses its footing and actually uh uh uh begins some sort of a sell-off. And so for me, this is a highly fragile moment in the market. doesn't make it imminent to the day but uh I would be shocked if the market uh uh didn't wasn't already selling this month at some point right now po in this post November expiration post no uh um Nvidia earnings I have I feel there's a very good odds that we're in some sort of correction if we got a correction there are a couple key levels to watch the 38% retracement of the entire rally rally that we had. So when we take this entire rally, the 38% retracement lies around 6,200 which conveniently lies at where previous highs act like support uh where you know so previous resistance is now support. It's a technical rule that exists and it's a key Fibonacci zone. So, if for whatever reason the triggers got kicked in, uh a very fast and uh rapid drop towards 6,200 on the S&P would be the first major target point for for a market drop. And now, uh, if that sustains below the, uh, the 50-day moving average on a sustained basis, there could be another leg that sees us temporarily trade below 6,000, maybe 5,800 or so on the downside if we got that kind of selling because uh, I think it was we talked about on the show, I don't remember who was the one that um, uh, maybe you can reference a name who was the one talking about it, but the first leg of a market drop is almost always very well hedged up. There's a lot of people that hedge up on these first drops, but then they cover their hedges and the market stays very vulnerable and uh even people attempt to buy it. So when the next leg comes around, it can always be steeper and more violent uh because uh traders were not positioned for it. Much higher volatility premiums make it less attractive to hedge. All these different plays come in. And so if I was to give a sequence uh just from a logical perspective, we have a quick drop towards 6,200 when it plays out and if it if it ends up being a failed rally and uh a period we could see a a Christmas massacre scenario where we uh well, you know, it was it's a good, you know, we're going to be going in Christmas season when everyone's going to be uh uh wishing Santa's rally shows up, but we could have a a quick drop those 6,000 uh on a correction there that would put this correction in that 15 plus percent um kind of uh zone of if we got this leg and that would be all I would be looking for the first leg. Now the second question would then be if we got this kind of a correction is it being uh is it marking a correction just in uh in the fact that the market was unstable the breath of the market's deteriorating all these different things. we just needed a reset of the riskreward proposition and that once that correction happens the bull market resumes or is it going to be signifying the actual peak and and bursting of the AI AI bubble because I I don't have the answer to that by the way this is something we would discover uh only after the fact but if if it is the bursting of the AI bubble then we'd have to entertain a question does a correct ction in the market. Uh is it actually the first leg of a bare market? Uh or is there something that's going to happen uh you know uh in 2026 that this kind of a sell-off triggered? uh the best uh analog to that is the way uh the market here I'll put on a weekly chart the way that the market kind of played out in 2007 where basically there was the first leg of a market correction on the downside that happened in that November December January period and then when everyone realized that something was systemically wrong in the financial system it became a bare market and uh and that bare market really arguably started started in, you know, April of 2008 when things really rolled over and things started to deteriorate and that negative feedback loop happened. And so, uh, I'm I think it's incredibly premature to speculate on the bare market side because a lot of things actually still have to happen. Uh I mean I I'm at this moment open to the idea that this could just be a correction that is a buy on dip and and the market could still go higher. But the probability we get a correction here I think is very very high and the market has probably not been more vulnerable to the start of this correction at any point than now. Uh and uh and this is something to watch here. Do you have any comments to make or you want to >> No. So, I I first of all, I've never heard someone explain this idea of the stock market going sideways and the trigger becoming closer and closer to it. And I thought that was really smart and really well articulated. So, kudos for that. It really kind of crystallized in my mind why you believe we're much more vulnerable than we've ever been. A great example quick quick quickly I'll let you continue but I want to show you is that that this period before liberation day correction was this three four month period where exactly that same scenario happened. the stock market stopped going up and the triggers kept going higher and higher. Uh for allowing just one quick breakdown to suddenly triggered the chain reaction of systematic selling that basically and you know rises in in realized volatility that triggered that huge uh dislocation in in the positions of all of the systematic traders. And the longer we stay sideways here, uh the more vulnerable the market becomes uh to just one small uh a little drop in the market being all it took to actually create the chain reaction and that um that is definitely a vulnerability here. >> Right. The other thing I would just kind of highlight is that um you know you and I have been bearish for a little while or at least I shouldn't speak for you but I've been bearish for the past month or so and I've been getting lots of flak and people you know making fun of me calling me a grumpy old man. >> That's actually a good sign by the way. >> Yeah. But um I would kind of say like one of the things that I always love to reference is that Bruce Cner um line where he says what I'm really looking for is a market that is not confirming consensus. And to me, the consensus was that we're going to rally into year end. Everyone's bullish, yada yada yada. But the reality is when you look at the stock market, it hasn't been that strong. And it's been, as you've highlighted, it's been increasingly more and more narrow. It's it's rallied on the back of just a few stocks. And that the rest of the market is doing badly. And even the indices haven't been like, it's not like you're up huge amounts over the last month. It's kind of almost a wash in terms of where we are now. So, it it seems to me there's lots of people that are bullish and there's lots of uh folks that uh you know are selling because the reality is the stock market's not going up. So, what what are the things that um uh the kind of uh canaries in the coal mine that are slowly dying that are warning that uh that something is uh is uh uh ahead of us? One one of the things for me is the continued deterioration of market breath. Um and if you go back uh so right now we're at 44% which is and just a few >> help people what did >> I I'll explain in a second but uh but we were at 35% just a week and a half ago. Now what this is is how many stocks of the S&P 500 the 500 stocks how many of them are above their 50-day moving averages. So, like at the beginning when we talked about the 50-day moving average being a deptor of trend, um you know, at the uh after the April rally, uh we were at 85% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages. That bounce off of the liberation day low basically had huge participation. the entire stock market rose and this beautiful uh kind of rebound rally breath became super strong. We've now seen basically since July, we're talking four months of systematically lower lows and lower highs deterioration as fewer and fewer stocks continue to participate in this market. Now, this is not that important to the S&P. Why? because the market cap waiting of the MAG7s was like 36% of the last time I heard the number. I don't I don't know what it is today, but uh they're basically onethird of the entire S&P 500 in a basket of seven stocks. And um and we're in a situation where well as go the MAG7s really will go the S&P, but the underpinning market was really deteriorating. Now the the the so this deter this deterioration of breath it is to me is a huge warning. As an example you could see the breath uh really deteriorated before uh the little December correction before liberation day and then the uh and during the rally going into January and early February you basically never had breath return back above 55%. And then during liberation day, we basically go almost zero where almost every single stock in the stock market uh was in a downtrend, right? Like it wasn't zero but very close to um on that. But the point is the breath was deteriorating persistently from the August September highs. So when breath deteriorates it uh is not healthy for the market, right? You want a bull market needs good healthy broad participation the kind of like the tide rising and all boats rising in the tide that's not there. So, this has been based on Mag 7. And when we look at the Mag 7, well, there's a problem all of a sudden, right? First of all, the Mag 7 rock and rolled, right? Like you had the Mag 7 uh basically from uh from trough to peak have a 77% rally that basically drove this entire S&P move and made the NASDAQ up 50% off that same period from trough to peak. And so the MAG7s uh have this epic rally, but this is the first negative price action. Now, while we broke below the 50-day moving average for the first time this morning, we're looking to close back above it. It's like it was at the edge of the cliff and they made the big save here. But this is the first time that we have seen a selloff wipe out the entire previous rally. uh almost every prior period the sell-offs would be very short and shallow immediately bought on dip and off to a fresh new 52- week high and punching new levels, right? Like the market was systematically doing that. The fact that we wiped out the entire previous rally immediately increases the likelihood that we're witnessing a topping formation constructing itself on the MAG sevens. And so when we have the breath of the market deteriorating and the only thing that could keep this market going starting to show some warning signs, you can see that this is not this is not adding up to being good. Like where what the hell is going to save this market if uh if it's not going to have breath or the mag sevens? And uh and so this is this is where we're at with a little bit of a structural problem with the market. Now to me the beta one asset out there are the financials the XLF and uh the XLF the financials uh you know they have traditionally always participated with the S&P almost beta 1 right like they uh you know they diverge a little bit but generally they uh correct with the market and they rally with the market they've generally are a tell you can that overall we have not made any real progress since July on the financials doing anything. uh the they have been generally uh topping and uh and some technicians would love to uh jam a cookie cutter shape of a head and shoulders pattern uh on uh on the um on the the financials here, including what now was a very clear rally into what would be a right shoulder of of a of a topping. So, uh one of the canaries that's about to die is if the financials crack below 52. If we see a breakdown now, have has have the financials broken? No. Are they still within the trade range? Uh, is there some sort of sell-off? No. But with them not participating for four months, if we see the financials start to sell, this is a problem. Uh, uh, and uh, and I would consider a warning. Now, another thing that I always consider a warning is uh how are the junk bond markets trading? Very relevant considering that there's been a lot of stories pushing back on all of the AI credit that's been created uh and uh and the problems of the downgrades like uh in Oracle's debt ratings and all these different things that are happening under the surface of this. The question is when do junk bonds start to actually uh um show that the the liquidity in that market has dried up? Uh and again you had a a clear double top formation uh form up along the high and at the same time we now have had a rally off the neckline that failed at at the 50-day moving average and fib zone trading right to the neckline almost the same time as the financials index is doing the same kind of thing. Uh and so is the canary dead on the com uh on these yet? No. But what I this one wise guy I do uh this uh this show with on on the market huddle uh was made an observation that um you know that there and tell me if I'm paraphrasing it correctly but there have been a lot of 5% market corrections where junk bonds uh are uh inactive or or not participating but almost every 10 plus% market correction has usually a breakdown in high yield junk bonds on the downside. >> And and so if we have a breakdown in these high yield here, then that scenario I drew out to 6,200 and potentially even 5,800 on the S&P, which would be that 15 to 18% kind of market correction, becomes uh a reality that's on the table. Uh and so you can see have have we triggered on financials? No. Have we triggered on high yield? No. But everything is at the edge of the cliff. >> Yeah. >> And all it needs is a little push. Uh and uh and if if and what will that be? Is it going to be Nvidia's earnings? It's the most obvious thing that could be like if you're looking just on the calendar for something that could uh you know encompass uh um the uh you know where we are in this uh in this market. Nvidia is the general and uh and you know like we could take a look here. Let's just have a peek at Nvidia. But uh this was a I don't know whether you want to call it a prairie dog but it has prairie dog characteristics. >> Oh I agree. >> Uh which is that you know after an extended consolidation it tried to break out and immediately gave the entire breakout back. >> Y >> um now has it officially started a sequence of lower highs and lower lows? No. But we're in a situation where this thing hit a $5 trillion market cap and uh and the AI bubble has been the sole driver of it. And there's only one stock that truly encompasses the AI bubble uh and that's Nvidia. And so the question becomes not whether they beat because I will I will bet money that the they will beat earnings just because the the hurdle itself is always set at a place where the company can beat it. >> Uh and so >> if they don't Patrick there's going to be a disaster. >> It's going to be a disaster. But let's assume they're going to beat because I think that is a very fair assumption. But the expectations for AI have been set so high. Yeah. >> The question becomes uh is it uh is it going to be enough especially on the guidance or will it trigger those people that feel the urge to sell the news? >> Yeah. >> Uh irrespective of the beat. >> And I think the guidance is going to actually matter the most. >> That's what's going to mean everything. It's not the actual earnings. You're absolutely correct. There's if it doesn't beat, it'll be shocking and it'll be literally catastrophic if they don't beat. They're going to beat, >> but it could still be bad even with a beat depending on how they guide and where we go from there. >> Exactly. And so uh so we have a scenario here where uh if whatever a reaction to their earnings comes out and Nvidia is below that 50-day moving average uh uh within days of its earnings, um we've got a crack that that could steamroll the whole market. [snorts] >> Okay. Can I suggest something that often occurs in these sorts of situations? You get a beat, they guide, it seems positive, you get a gap higher and that gap higher gets sold. >> Absolutely. Things >> that's like like look at Oracle. >> Oracle like they beat [clears throat] they raised there's all this crap and it's being sold ever since >> and been sold ever since. The other example which even though it may not be a perfect example because Microsoft gapped before its earnings but Microsoft basically rallied for a double top retest and then on its earnings beat >> and it's been selling ever since including now trading below its 50-day moving average for two weeks. Right. And uh and so the this is definitely what uh investors have to watch for if that happens in the post Nvidia earnings. Now uh could it be a scenario where you know the incredibly high V premiums? Let me actually observe uh on my side screen here where we're already trading on Nvidia's earnings. Sorry, on its V structure. Hold on. Well, here I can also tell you what Bloomberg has got for um an expected. >> So here, right now it's at 67% on the November, but let me put the November. Yeah. Yeah. So right now 67% implied on the November 21st expiry. >> So they have a 6.3% implied move on earnings, which is shocking considering this the world's biggest company. >> Yeah. >> Right. Like that's pretty large. It is it is uh it is a large implied move and uh and so we're going to uh we're going to find out for sure uh you know whether or not this becomes a trigger point or not. Uh I I would if I I still my my spidey senses are here that the market still bounces here the days before at least Nvidia bounces the days before its earnings. I I can't imagine uh uh you know Nvidia trading at a oneweek low uh going into the earnings. Uh I feel that there's going to be enough people that are going to want to speculate where at least it's going to stabilize. >> Yeah. >> And >> and I think your call about the opex is also interesting and seems well thought out in terms of that potentially could be the moment that the bull gives it up and rolls over from there. >> Right. And these are all the kind of things that could play out. So here with the fact that the bulls saved the market again today really does put the OPEX and that Nvidia earnings as the the the kind of center point which I still think that after all the dust settles afterwards, that last week in November is a highly vulnerable moment uh for for things to really uh be moving underway. And like when we I often love to look at the markets from uh a pain trade perspective. I always like to make a base cases what could screw over the maximum amount of investors um and use that as a starting base case and uh and you know uh investors kind of being punched into the Nvidia with a little bit of a gap higher on its earnings like everything is going to be good. uh you know everything kind of all those people that have those November hedges on their uh on their books um they're all going to roll off and suddenly you know with the implied falls right now like the VIX had another jump to 22 today where is it now settling in hold right now we're at 20 on the VIX but we're now at a situation where uh hedging is no longer structurally cheap I mean it's not super expensive like we're not paying 30 plus on on implied, but it's going to make a lot of people question whether they should spend the money on hedges when they have to pay up for them. >> Yeah. Not only that, Patrick, hedging has cost money this whole period. The volatility risk premium, which is the difference between the implied and the realized has been record high for a while now. Not record high, sorry, consistently high. Meaning that versus realized, it's actually being expensive to hedge. Yeah, >> one of the things that I think that has happened is that a lot of folks have looked at that and said, "Okay, it's expensive to hedge on the stock market. I have just lost money on this." And if you actually look at gold, gold has been a better hedge in terms of protecting my portfolio. So, I think that in we've seen an increased use of gold as a hedge for the portfolios. >> I think that's such a stupid idea. [laughter] I I I think I I think it's not going to work. >> So I I agree. But if you look at Patrick, the thing is a lot of >> I'm not saying people haven't been doing it. I'm just saying that that's I think that's a really bad hedge. >> No. And I and I understand in a deflationary kind of riskoff moment, gold will also get sold and it is but if terms of the numbers over the last year, you've been better off owning gold as a hedge than you know the rate carried better, >> right? And I think that's what's happened is that a lot of folks have just looked at the numbers and realized because not only has it carried better, Patrick, but it's also worked in terms of on days when the stock market went down, it was a an an a positive risk like an up move in gold. It was negatively correlated to the sorry on down days it was negatively correlated to the stock market. >> Well, today when the market was down uh below the 50-day moving average, gold was down 150 bucks. >> No. I think that this is the problem is that a lot of people do have that on now and that there is a lot of you know stranger things happening and the other thing that I was you know you go back to your point about the fact that the market always hurts what the you know what consensus is whatever it tries to make a fool the greatest amount of people you know I can't remember which one of the 1920s traders said that but um if we look at what is consensus right now I don't know anyone well I shouldn't say that very few people think that we're not going to rally into year end. Meaning that the consensus is we're going to rally to year end. That is how everyone is positioned. And I worry because, you know, they talk about seasonalities and that was what I was going to kind of highlight when you're saying that we go down after OPX, but if you go look, everyone's passing around charts showing the seasonality and how we're approaching the most bullish time for stocks. And one of the things that I just would like to highlight here is that the seasonality didn't work in September this year. >> There's a lot of times Yeah, right. Like I almost think the seasonality, the fact that we're all looking at it so much has made it a self-fulfilling negative, you know, prophecy. Meaning that everyone is positioned for that. So therefore, it doesn't work because everyone's watching for it. You know what? You know what? I um I feel a very good exercise might be uh Kev to take the seasonality data and analyze it in the context of what the market did in the six months uh uh prior uh as a uh and a lot of guys do do that. A lot of guys do do that. I've seen it and it's still bullish. There's no doubt about it. But having said that, it was supposed to be bearish like in September and it didn't work. >> Like for me, I'll give you an example here. So going back to um this sell-off here that happened in 20123, right? It started in the summer, the traditional September October period was weak. You know, the market from uh peak to trough had a 11% correction on the downside. When a market is oversold, I love to use a a bungee cord example with no different than liberation day is that when the bungee cord is stretched to the downside, the snapback has more velocity. And so um the fact that the stock market had a seasonal Christmas rally into year end that was a 17% run on the upside made a lot of sense because the market started from a depressed level oversold corrections already been washed out. systematic traders were already repositioned and there was an opportunity for a year-end rally where >> both almost both seasonals fed on themselves and created the the the the inline seasonal moves and you're arguing almost now it's the opposite. We're seeing a situation where the September seasonal didn't work whereas we were aren't oversold into September and in fact we just rallied into it and now >> exactly the sell in May and go away. We saw the S&P 500 from May till October basically have like a 30% freaking rise. >> Yeah. >> Uh [clears throat] so like the market is starting at the highs of a a thing there. The seasonally weak period wasn't there. So why would one expect that suddenly this time around the se seasonality is going to work? You know >> Patrick, they all want it to work because that is the the consensus opinion. >> The perfect example. Yeah. perfect example of what I think uh is vulnerable even though I don't think the same percentage has to play out. But notice here from May till September of 2018, we had a market rally. Now, here's the key. Uh a Trump was in office during this time. So all of these guys that are all say, "Oh, Trump won't let the market crash." that that that that garbage that you hear out there like somehow he has this magic thing that he he can prevent the market crashes. Well, people have to remember that the Volmageddon happened under Trump and so did the Christmas massacre happen after uh while Trump was in office. So saying that somehow Trump can avo uh find a way to the to make these things not happen uh it's just like such a ridiculous statement. But point being is that uh you had a seasonal period where the the sell in May and go away was the opposite. We had a stock market that ripped higher during that period. And once October rolled around, we went through a Christmas massacre where the stock market sold off in that window of time which seasonality said was supposed to be rallying. Yeah. And uh and I think basically seasonality is a nice rule of thumb, but you need to uh to assess the over uh the the conditions of the market at the time and uh and not somehow magically say that well seasonality has always worked in the past and therefore it's going to work this time. Yeah. I think it's a horrible way to anchor yourself in the in >> I like it. Patrick is spicy about the seasonality. I like it. >> It's It's Look, it's it's not that I I'm not going to dispute the past. All I'm saying is that after this market had the largest uh rally without a 5% correction and the longest rally without a 5% correction in history, betting that oh well we can just disclude all that and just say that the market's going to keep going because uh because seasonality says so is I think dangerous assumption to make. >> I like it. >> Um uh on that front. Okay. So uh obviously we're we're talking a lot of of these equities. Another thing I wanted to just highlight before we go on because I want to talk other parts of the markets. I want to highlight that we're starting to see the cracks on small caps. Small caps have successfully also stayed above their 50-day moving averages. Yeah. >> Uh since the May low, there was one little brief little uh scare in July for a day, but overall the trend was there. We yesterday had the first legitimate close below the 50-day moving average and we didn't rebound today uh uh above it. So the small caps have actually broken and not only that they've broken to lower lows like these neck lines have already given out and so we're already seeing deterioration in some of these spaces. Now, another interesting thing is the equal weight S&P 500 looks a lot like the financials index, which is that we've already been on the equal index going through what I would consider a distribution cycle for four months, which is the bull market. So, I at Big Picture, we we divi divide the markets into four segments. And there's not just bull and bare, but there's accumulation cycles and distribution cycles. And the characteristic of distribution cycles, Kev, is is that the market holds near its highs. So people keep seeing the returns on their market value, like the bull markets made them all this money, but the market stopped going up where basically you've reached a fair value zone where there's ample supply of market up there that prevents the stock market from actually uh rising any further. And uh almost all buying is met with selling, but all selling is bought on dip. uh and it creates what technical analysts call topping formations like they become uh periods where the market is heavy. Well, we've basically been in uh this kind of a distribution cycle uh since July in the S&P equal weight just the way we have in the financials. So right now when analyzing the S&P or the MAG7s, you're analyzing Nvidia, you're analyzing the AI bubble, but when you then take the rest of the stock market, it's telling a very different story. And the best way that I can describe that is think back to 1999 and 2000 where the dot stocks ran the NASDAQ into this parabolic rise on the upside giving a historic run while the S&P 500 spent almost a year with no real progress higher. It literally stayed flat while the NASDAQ ran. And and you almost now because because Nvidia and these stocks are such huge components of the S&P that now the only way to really get that same kind of comparison is looking at the equal weight S&P versus that of the S&P or the NASDAQ. Uh because it's giving a broader picture. And so you can see a very very heavy equal weight index yet that has not broken down yet, but certainly has lost all mojo, no momentum, no no real progress. It's been stalled out here and that uh to me is just continuing to support this idea that a correction is imminent. >> Isn't that an Austin Powers uh premise of a movie that he lost his mojo? >> Yes, I I happen to steal that right now. [laughter] All right. Is there anything else you want to talk about or you want to just leave me as a stock only because I feel like it's I don't >> we got to move on. >> Okay. >> Got to move on. All right. We got to talk about gold. >> Oh, first of all, let's just the dollar. By the way, I think the dollar's a big buy on dip here. Coming back to the 50-day moving average, coming right to the fib zones. Uh, and that actually may be also something that happens in a ri riskoff cycle. In fact, with the very low implied on currencies, maybe on a uh cost adjusted basis, going long US dollar calls may be an actual very interesting hedge to put onto your portfolio because uh it's very likely that a US dollar rally may happen during a riskoff cycle and very very cheap implies making uh it have the potential to give you a real kicker if that correlation happened. >> It's funny you say that, Patrick, because this week I I looked at my portfolio and I looked at the different positions I had and I wanted to as the stock market came down, I wanted to do something in terms of, you know, was starting to work and things like that. And I was thinking about different things I could do. And then I realized that um Charlie McGilligan has been talking about all these TY V buyers like the fixed income V buyer >> and I was looking at I was like oh no wonder they're buying this it's super cheap like the move has come way down I went and looked at these call these positions and it was it wasn't really they were just V bets as opposed to direction bets and I realized that one of the issues is that the government's been closed there's been no information so there's even Though you would think logically market still moves around, it hasn't. It because it doesn't know how to deal with the lack of information. So now that the government's reopening, I think what you're seeing is an increase in people that are willing to now all of a sudden buy V again because they think there's going to be some releases. So V is being bid in the fixed income square. I think it's also being bid in the stock market square. And I think that was yesterday. Part of the problem Thursday was there's just a relentless bid in the VIX and that caused a lot of selling and it kind of fed upon itself. But this is a long winded way of saying Patrick I also bought some foreign exchange v and I didn't even say for the first time ever I usually have a view in terms of like I'm going to you know be bullish on the US dollar bearish on whatever and I've gone and I've instead of actually betting on a direction I've just bet on V. said, "Yeah, straddled it." Strangled straddles. Straddles. I'm just gonna get long ball because I think that you're spot on correct. This is too cheap. I still contend. It's been one of my worst calls in terms of expecting there to be some FX fireworks and there have not been any. And I haven't talked about it in a while, but it was just this kind of hit a point where I was like, "Oh, it's time to buy them again." So, I went out and bought some, you know, tried to pick away at some one-year stuff. I think that it's cheap. I also bought some fixed income vault. You'd be proud of me. I'm trading that. I think that I, you know, there's this whale out there that's doing this big buy of volatility out in the actual T- bond pit. >> And I kind of just tag along with them. I'm saying like, yeah, this is cheap. And I look into the the last couple months of the year here. I think there a lot could happen. There's we got the government reopening. We got economic stuff. we have the Trump uh you know we won't get into it but there's a lot of political issues in terms of things like that. >> Yeah. So, so the interesting uh thing that I saw from um I'm trying to remember which analyst was a a report I saw it on, but um the the interesting thing uh that he made the comment was was that is it possible that everyone's waiting for a bare market uh uh sorry, a uh recession to inevitably trigger a bare market. But what if it's the opposite that a bare market triggers a recession? Oh, Cupy's been saying that forever. That's his line. He says, "In the old days, recessions cause stocks to go down. These days, stocks going down cause recessions, >> right?" And so, so the question becomes uh if we end up having some sort of AI bubble burst, which is by the way not something I want to think, while I believe the stock market corrects, I think the AI bubble uh bursting is going to be a 2026 story. uh that it's going to take months for us to really know for sure that that's materializing. And I don't want to stick my neck on the chopping block making that call. But if the AI AI bubble burst and it it rolled, which means that the S&P would not make a higher high uh um uh going into after some correction, then uh that could lead to a recession because the stock market will get hammered again and panic will uh will kick kick in and that could be that trigger point that creates it. And no matter how many people out there say, "Well, Trump won't allow this to happen." Well, there's only so much his tweets are going to be able to do. Um, let's uh let's >> Not only that, they all think, "Oh, he's going to do stimulus checks." Eventually, the the the fiscal room runs out. Like we're seeing that in the UK. They go, they try to stimulate and the bond market revolts. >> Yeah. >> And so, we see that and eventually there will be no fiscal room in the US. I don't know when that is, but there will hit a point or there'll be less fiscal room and they won't be able to do it in the B and the stock market will actually react negatively at which point people will say it's okay he'll do yield curve control and you go okay fine he uses a yield curve control guess what happens to the dollar at that point >> there are limits to this >> isn't it ironic Patrick that like all the guys that kind of against the MMT and and were so negative about the idea about there was no real resource constraint and it was always a financial constraint And now they've all of a sudden become there's just no restraints period that they got that that everyone seems to have forgotten that there are limits. And I I 100% believe that there are limits. But we've somehow been lulled into this belief that that there's no limits and that Trump can just keep printing and printing and printing. So yes, at an extreme he could cause this you the stock market to stay bid because he could just, you know, inflate his way out of it. 100%. No doubt about it. But that's that's I just want to make this clear. >> Eventually that ends up being a nominal game as opposed to a real, you know, real return game. Yeah. >> And the reality is that there are limits from a real on a real return basis if he can protect the the stock market, >> right? And uh I want to just also highlight one quick thing. You know, a lot of people talk about uh the midterms and that that that they won't allow the stock market to go down into midterms. Uh correct me if I'm wrong, but the Christmas massacre was actually well underway during the midterms of of Trump's last administration in that 20 thou the end of 2018. And so this idea that there isn't or can't be some sort of a market event occurring into midterms. Well, there are clear evidence in previous market cycles, including one where Trump was president where this happened. And so >> a silly boy though, you don't understand how much smarter Trump has gotten, Patrick. Well, >> that's your problem. >> And more powerful. He's definitely more powerful now. That's your problem. Uh the um so the the the next thing I uh I want to talk about is also a a risk asset um uh problem is the fact that crypto is selling. Uh like you know that is your kind of quintessential risk asset and lower highs lower lows already a double top broken the necklines in full cell mode. I'm not trying to make bold calls about where Bitcoin is going, but rather that a risk asset distributing this way um is a sign of liquidity flows uh and uh and the fact that it's selling I think is also uh a further evidence that the market remains vulnerable. >> Got it. The next thing I >> gold okay >> so uh I made a call when that high came in that uh that was going to be the high of the year and a lot of anxiety for me uh when the last little rip happened over the last couple of days like if gold was going to re-res the importance of the 4200 level on the on the um uh gold price because uh often corrections happen in uh two waves. Uh what I I often use this uh drawing tool to simplify that and uh and there uh from a very oversold state, gold bouncing was the expected thing. We in fact published trades going long silver and doing a bunch of other trades on short-term trades expecting this kind of a bounce. But this 4,200 level is right where the fib retracement is, which is the typical kind of highly vulnerable area for where these point B's on corrections happened. The fact that we reversed a h 100 plus dollars uh on gold off of that that high point leaves very much on the table that there could still be one more leg down. Now overall, I remain big picture bullish gold. I think gold will be a 5,000 plus a year from now and so on. What we're just talking about is the fact market corrections happen and gold is not some magic asset that does gets to avoid having corrections. It it it gold is just another asset and it trades like every other asset out there and we went through a bull run. Now, it's important to highlight that the previous four corrections on gold lasted anywhere from two months to four months before gold was able to break to a fresh new 52- week high. Uh and and so uh with this only being 30 days into this correction, this I uh would be the shortest corrective sequence we would have had of the this being the fifth correction of the last four I was I'm referring to, you know, where after such a big run, if this thing already a month in was already breaking to 52- week highs, it would be the shortest correction in in all of them before a new high is printed. And so I still am in the camp that the the vulnerability is that gold chops through the rest of the year. Uh whether that ends up being a big horizontal triangle formation or whether that ends up being a correction that still prints 3,800 or 3700, I still think gold is in a corrective mode. It will lead to the next bull market in gold. I'm not trying to be bearish other than that it's I don't feel that this is that holy if you didn't buy uh you missed it and you know you got to buy everything and anything. I think there's still time to position into gold throughout the next month or so. I think there was going to be a lot of fake out rallies, a lot of sideways consolidations. Uh and if there is going to be a fresh breakout, it's going to be a 2026 story. uh is is my uh my kind of sequencing in terms of timing on the upside. Like uh interesting that silver uh did a direct retest. Will that in the end be a double top? It's so premature to draw that conclusion, but it did stall at its previous high uh which uh is usually a key resistance level. The sell-off that we saw in the last two days is coming already. I'm going to put this quickly on a 4hour chart and highlight that it ca slammed straight into the Fibonacci zone. I mean, if we see silver in any way sustained below $50, it increases the likelihood that it was a double top uh and uh and that silver is going to still be correcting for a little bit. If the bulls are going to save this thing and and keep silver running, it's going to stay above 50 the whole time. And that's the easiest way for I think all our listeners to look at it. Silver stays bullish so long as it's staying abu in the 50 handle or higher. And uh if we have anything start breaking below 50 then the risk of a double top and a deeper correction becomes much higher probabilities. >> Got it. >> All right. Next thing I still don't think oil breaks to a lower low. I uh and you know what? We had a big sell day. Everyone was reaching for excuses as to why that selloff happened um the other day uh you know like what Trump promised certain gas prices. What what other headline was there that you saw? >> No, there was a million. >> There was a million garbage ones. There was not one legitimately good one. Uh and uh >> by the bull. >> But [laughter] no, but like like I like >> Yeah. >> I like legitimate things. What happens is that the everyone loves to have a reason for everything. The idea you say, well, no, there were just more sellers than there were buyers seems completely unacceptable to anyone to say there there has to be a reason for everything. >> Oh, and you know, I I'll tell you, as a guy who sat on a desk and had orders that moved markets, it's way more random and arbitrary over the short run than anyone imagined. Exactly. like they just do like I remember sitting there and waiting because you know one of my big clients was going to get long can Canada like was going to increase their equity uh uh exposure and I remember talking to the trader going like is is it is the order coming and he goes oh no somebody's sick we're going to have to wait a week okay so they waited a week to do it because they had to go through the investment committee or whatever right so then the next week comes and he gives me this order and it's like monstrous and we're like buying the Canadian market for like a week and we're just constantly on the bid, right? And so we're sending it up and I'm watching TV and I'm watching them talk about why it's going up and they're coming up with like the news of this blah blah blah blah and I was like that's I just bought this thing. I [laughter] like I knew why it was going up. I knew that it could have just as easily been the previous week. And then uh you know other times I've seen uh you know a portfolio manager fall in love you know like Fidelity gets in there and they fall in love with a stock and the reality is that they'll buy that stock for a month and it'll be going up day after day after day >> taking the positions. >> Yeah. And and and and so people will read everything into like the one specific day and I'm like it's just BS. Like it is way more random than people think over the short run. Over the long run, it all gets sorted out and it is going to go where it's going to go. But to explain the short-term movements so precise, I just laugh whenever I hear someone saying silly. So, and so point being here, what I find interesting is yesterday we dipped straight into a fib retracement like right into the 61.8 8 with that red candle and we reversed and we're almost completely reversed the entire breakdown candle in uh in two days. Um and so dips are being bought now. Are we above the 50-day? Have we broken this descending trend line? We actually still are in bare mode in the sense that there is absolutely nothing bullish yet that has happened. >> Right. Um uh but I also think that this has all of the characteristics of a bottoming formation and I still think there's plenty of room and you know like one of the big things like it's like I'm shocked that no one see it's like one of those things I think will be that nobody cares until everyone cares all at once. Yeah. Yeah. I think I think uh the Venezuela buildup is very much that like everyone there's this buildup and no one seems to care and I've heard even some crazy argument made by someone that uh that this is that it's actually bearish for oil if they they attack Venezuela because that means that they're going to bring all of that oil onto the market >> eventually long term long run but but they they're trying to make an argument that this is not going impact the oil market. >> Who is that idiot? Who's that idiot that's saying something like that? >> I'm not I'm not going to say his name on. But >> be kind of you not make a fool of that guy. >> Yeah. But the point being here that uh I still think it's one of those things that when it becomes a reality and you don't see this kind of a buildup. Some people were saying online that this is the largest military buildup since Iraq by the US in in one area. And uh the idea that they're moving this many resources and they're going to do nothing is to me unlikely. >> I just think there's better reason there's better reasons to be long oil than than moving some ships across into Venezuela, you know, close to Venezuela. And listen, maybe you're right. I don't know. I just could sentiment. What could shift sentiment though? And this is the thing. There's a lot you're giving me a lot of fundamental re uh reasons why oil will inevitably turn and I agree with them but I'm what I'm curious about and I'm just curious. I'm not even know if I want to make the bull call but I think the oil will react to it. >> I don't know. We'll see. Well, we'll see. >> I I >> you seem pretty sure that it's going to happen and you seem pretty sure that oil is going to happen. >> I personally are saying more than One second. One second. Are you saying more than like two bucks, three bucks? Are you you're talking like 10 >> to be honest if to me >> I would think that there's something wrong with the markets if we did not have a two to3 dollar reaction on on a news headline. No, no, but two or three. We went down two. So, like I'm talking something real. Like, are you talking six bucks, seven, eight? >> Well, think about it. Uh we got a $10 move on them bombing the um uh Iranian u nuclear sites, which was arguably a highly fragile moment because if it escalated into uh a genuine hot war of some sort um and a and a disruption of the uh the canal uh there there could have been real problems. >> Yes. So I would be much more willing to say that that was >> a lot riskier than Venezuela. Like that really mattered. >> I just feel that the sentiment is so bearish right now on oil that it just needs a spark. It just needs something to light a fire. Uh and the the uh uh CTA's flipping and uh and people feeling like they need to have skin in the game. Suddenly the people will not be able to uh to get filled and they're chasing and they'll a short squeeze is underway like that that when this you got this kind of environment I think the asymmetry is massively skewed to the upside uh in terms of where's the next five to$10 move I think it's a to the upside not downside I mean look we can't rule out that this thing trades to 55 bucks and double bottoms its October low. Uh it's not impossible, but if if I was to say where's the next real legitimate move, it's got to be to the upside in my opinion. >> Okay, >> what else you got? >> Uh look, only thing that I wanted to highlight on uranium like okay so uh let's talk about uh uranium stocks for a moment. uh they have started to break down but what I find fascinating is the V structure uh in uh in the uranium stocks they have like during that rally v stayed relatively calm I'm just pulling it up here uh but what we have seen uh is the implies have virtually doubled uh in the last uh kind of three months uh we went from being down in the low 30s to up in the 60 plus percent range of implied volatilities on not only Kamico but all these uranium names alto together. Now, the volatility on the way up was as volatile on the way down, but it's crazy. Like a 60% handle on uh on these stocks, um like to me it's making it very difficult to put on any options trade uh in the uh uranium markets. Uh like literally uh going long gamma is um is making the riskreward payoff ridiculously awful. Uh and uh and it's just one of these scenarios where like uranium here like I would not be shocked if we were either down at 35 bucks on this or up at 5560 in a in a month or two. I think these implied are are showing just how volatile the situation is here on these stocks. question I have for you. Do you are you in the camp that these uranium stocks were all basketed in the AI uh story and that if the AI market turns that it will change the liquidity flows on uranium story? >> So I do agree with that but I don't think that's why V is bid. >> Well no it's not why no and I think the market is actually correctly priced that really high. Um, uranium is an important um, commodity for this administration and I would say that the chances of something happening there are higher than sorry not higher than the market expects because the market expects a lot but higher. the the option market is correctly anticipating an increased chance that something occurs uh that's outside the realm of traditional finance is what I would say there I think that they're here's how I would put this they're anticipating a political move and I think that they're correct in in having those sorts of vaults >> right >> and I think it's interesting you bring that up because I I didn't I I hadn't looked at the volatility, but that makes complete sense to me. Um, I will say this, >> I'm not I'm not sure I'm not saying it's stupid. It's just stupid for trading it. Like I I the problem is for me with such high V, I'm finding it very challenging to construct um like any good payoff profile on on trades. It literally I mean all you've got all you have is spreads. Like you can go with like some quick little uh spread trades to try to dampen the V impact, but uh beyond that, it's so hard to put on any uh uranium trade here. >> Yeah, completely agree. But the market might be that rich for a reason. >> Yes. Okay. What else? >> Might be right price. The last thing, well, this is it. Last thing, um I wanted to just touch on the Cosby. [snorts] And so one of the interesting things and I I'm shocked that I didn't bother to talk about this on the show for until now, but the Cosby has been the hottest market. >> Why don't you tell people what the Cosby is for? >> Sorry, the South Korean index, right? And Samsung and what's the other big uh um there's something high. Exactly. Some Highix name, whatever it was. the the two major plays that are associated with the AI story. Uh and so this has become those stocks have become the Nortells of the Canadian market in a sense. Not not that I'm predicting that they're going to blow up like Nortell, but rather they're waiting in the South Korean index has become so big that they are the South Korean index, right? like they've literally um just become crit uh the entire performance and so as Samsung went 100% so did the Cosby like I mean we had a a trough to peak rally of 85% uh in uh in this index it blew the NASDAQ out of the water. Yeah, this is incredibly narrow uh in that, you know, even at least with the mag sevens, you're actually more diversified in uh in their businesses uh than you are in the two stocks inside the Cosby. And to me, I feel that this is the other canary in the coal mine. when the Cosby is officially peaked out and reversed uh it I think will be a very good sign that the AI bubble has burst. >> Okay. I I I get it. Yeah. >> Yeah. like uh and uh and it's it's interesting one because you know for those uh you know relative uh those traders that do you know uh the relative trades like uh long short combinations the fact that the co the Cosby went from 20 V this is a country's index went from 20 V to 40 V >> to 40 V >> because of the right tail not because of the left tail >> but but it did because of the right tail But the V is double that of the QQQ. That to me is a disparity. >> So I I I don't pay for the Cosby B index data. So I don't know what the waiting is. But I did pull up the EWY which is the EyesShares MSCI South Korea index and I'm looking at Samsung is 23% and SKH Highix that's the name of it is 18%. So what do we got there? 41% like uh >> 40 that's it's literally Nortell BCE. >> Yeah. But also though the the top 10 names in the S&P 500 top 10 is the same. So, they've got two stocks that are the the same waiting as the top 10 in the >> This to me is the most ridiculous thing. Like like literally you uh and and so with the implied doubling, I honestly think that you could play a uh a relative trade, do a a long QQQ against a short Cosby trade here. uh and uh I think that uh that you're going to on the upside at this point from this level the QQQ would outperform I think the Cosby and at the same time if the it turned I think the Cosby will drop faster and deeper than uh than the NASDAQ will. It's an interesting idea for a long short pairing. >> Spicy. I like it. >> Okay, that's all I got. That's all I got. >> Okay, that's great stuff, Patrick. >> Okay, thank you everyone for tuning in. Uh, it was great to get this master class from our buddy Patrick Szna. Why don't you tell us where they can learn more about these sorts of great ideas. >> A shameless plug. You can find me at bigpicturer trading, but uh uh at bigpicturetraing.com, but you can also follow uh a lot of my video updates on my YouTube channel uh patrick_resnas. So you I'm putting out more content out there. So uh you don't have to wait every two weeks to get this update here. I I bring all sorts of insights throughout the week each week. >> There you go. Patrick_resna. Wait, I was ceas. >> Thank you. Oh my god. >> On the YouTube. All right. So, >> and you can go to macroourists.com and listen. Bare market bull market. We're just happy to spend some time together on this great fabulous ride. Now, stick around for the after show. >> Okay. Pumpkin beer. What do we got? >> Oh my god. This is This is so like literally I only drank one quarter of it and I'm not going to drink the rest. Like this is this No. No matter how bad of a rating I've given. >> Yep. >> This is the one of the first times I've not actually finished the >> That's true. That is really for you that is condemnation. Uh you know the worst. >> 2.1 >> 2.1 Well, at least it wasn't an amateur score like dang >> I literally I Yeah, absolutely. No, you know what? I I'm gonna I am never gonna ever consider buying this beer ever again. >> Are you one of these guys who likes the pumpkin spice? Because I can't stand it. I think it's awful. >> I don't like anything pumpkin. >> Like do you like pumpkin pie? >> I'm I'm mid. I'm mid. And in other words, like that's that's a term my children taught me. It's a gen Gen Zed talk. But uh but I'm I'm not a a hater of pumpkin, but it's not like something I'm looking for. Oh, it's a pumpkin season. like, you know, like I'm not uh if it's there I I'm more than willing to uh >> eat it. But yeah, it's it's >> I'm not a fan. I'll take an apple pie any day or or some chocolate. >> Absolutely. >> So, bud, I was in Toronto last week. We didn't we didn't uh >> Oh, yeah. Why didn't you call me? >> I Yeah, we didn't meet up, but uh >> of course I come to Toronto, it freaking snows. >> Yeah. Well, it's your fault. >> It is my fault. >> You brought it like they were like 6 in of snow in early November. Like the idea of Toronto even having snow at Christmas is sometimes something people dream about and here in November that lays down like >> you know what was interesting it also stayed for a little while which was very unusual like that usually you'll kind of get like that you know the one day and then the next day it goes to 10° and it all melts. This one it stayed cold and it stayed on the ground. >> Yeah. >> Well anyways it's your fault. I blame you. And also this not not phoning me up. This is >> dude. I I had a packed schedule. I was I flew in for a wedding and >> yeah, like I I had I had some uh other stuff. If I had free time, I I I'd love to, but when I come back, you know, and I'm defin I was thinking about coming back in the winter, but I remember being snowed in and my flights being cancelled for 48 hours in February, so I might wait till the spring [music] to show up uh my face in Toron. Well, listen. Over winter, I'm thinking about maybe going somewhere in Europe for a little bit. So, if we do that, [music] if I end up somewhere, come to my place in Italy. Uh, we're going to be just some skiing up in >> Okay. Well, anyways, if we do that, we should figure out a market that'll meet up somewhere fun in Europe. [music] We should do one wherever. We'll we'll try to figure something out. >> Um, you know, and uh we'll go and get all those Europeans and we'll have drink some beers and they can teach us what real beer's like. >> All right. None of the >> Well, let's let's uh let's wrap things up. Thanks everyone for tuning in. >> Thanks.
AT THE EDGE OF THE CLIFF…
Summary
Transcript
[music] Hit it. It's Friday, November 14th, 2025, episode 278. I'm Patrick Sesna. And I'm Kevin Mure. This week it's a no guess show. So for those who tune in solely to hear what smarter folks think, we'll see you next week. For everyone else, stay tuned for Patrick's talking charts where he answers the question on everyone's mind. Is this the start of a bigger decline in the US stock market? >> Yeah. Well, listen. Normally I invite Danny on here to uh introduce the beer. We we gave him the week off right now, but uh so I'm going to introduce my own beer. So I'm going to drink the Flying Monkeys Paranormal uh Imperial Pumpkin Ale. So we're doing a pumpkin ale in the spirit of the fall. Uh it was just after Halloween here. So we're going to give this a go and see how how this tastes in the interm. Why don't you or or why don't you just go on with the uh disclaimer here, buddy? >> All right. Nothing in this podcast should be viewed as investment advice. Listeners should consult an investment professional before making any decisions regarding topics mentioned in this show. Side effects of too much huddle may include having to drink pumpkin beer. um rate right rate hike residue disorder, the tech titan tension tremor and then finally this is something that I am suffering from the Nevada Nevada Nvidia earnings euphoria disorder otherwise known as the need. There you go. Well, listen, this is an awful beer. I'm I just a disclaimer to everyone. This this uh this is gonna get a bad rating. Okay. All right, buddy. Uh so um uh let's let's get to the charts. >> So Patrick, there's lots going on. We're kind of at a crucial point in the markets. I'd love to hear what you're thinking here. >> Listen, uh things are getting spicy. >> Yes, that's there's no other way to to to to put this. uh we uh had on the S&P now four attempts to break below the 50-day moving average each time including today in the middle of the morning uh like let's call this uh the afternoon session start of the afternoon session almost um with the market breaks below the 50-day and the bulls come in save it and take it off the the edge of the cliff. Uh why this 50-day moving average? It's not like a 50-day moving average is this magical uh you know technical uh holy grail, but it is actually a very good deptor of trend. Like if you observe the S&P and almost all the stocks uh like the MAG7s that got above their 50-day moving averages have more or less in the last six plus months stayed above there without violating them once. So, it's a very good way of just having a a rule of thumb of, you know, is a stock trending um at at a one point. The the but the relevance of this 50-day moving average right now is that a lot of the systematic CTA triggers just so happen to at this moment be lining up with a lot of the uh uh the levels just below this 50-day. And so we're in a situation where uh you know when when we look at things from a bearish perspective, there's two kind of ways to break it down. There are those people that are bearish on the AI bubble and there's those people that are trying to in the big picture ask is this the major turning point of the AI story? We'll talk about Nvidia in a moment uh on on the markets. Um and that in itself could lead to uh because the waiting of these MA uh MAG7s and other um major semiconductors are so big, it's going to be very hard for the S&P 500 on a market cap basis to make any progress if there's a correction going on in these stocks. So there's that one theme, but there's a a second theme which is just uh the reality of flows. And when a market rallies this far, a part of that rally was many CTAs, volt targeting funds and um gamma dealer positioning stuff, uh Vanna flows. All these things were tailwinds for the market that actually allowed there to be a natural bull trend to be occurring. And we're just from a, you know, a quantitative and technical perspective looking at where can those flows pivot, where can those people that were buying all along systematically without discretion, without emotion be forced to hit the bid and uh and create that air pocket that can create a much deeper and uh and clearer uh kind of breakdown in the markets. And [snorts] so I want to separate the two because as far as I'm concerned, we've been long overdue for this kind of five plus percent market correction. Uh like uh going back to the start of decade uh back to 2020, there have been uh over 20 market corrections of 5% or greater and on average they have uh occurred three to four times a year. So the fact that we have basically since April uh going over six months gone without a 5% correction has made this the 100 percentile of not only the longest period without a 5% correction this decade but it's also the steepest rally we've had uh this decade without a 5% correction. And so some sort of mean reverting correction is overdue. And when some sort of trigger is hit and whatever the catalyst drives that trigger, um the stock market's going to go through a correction. It's just this what it does all the time. And uh and so let's first look at this purely from that correction perspective and then we could talk AI afterwards and and the potential turning points. So if we have a legitimate close below the 50-day and more importantly the first period from which the market breaks to lower lows um it is very likely that the selling will uh the sellers will hit that bid pretty hard and we could have some sort of a a deeper more meaningful market correction. uh to me the target zones when those triggers are hit and that the thing is the debate is is the trigger imminent. I still believe the trigger is much more likely be going to be uh post Nvidia's earnings and maybe even post opex uh next week on Friday we have the big option expiration. Um it we could hold in for three, four, five more trading sessions before uh the vulnerabilities there. But I don't think there has been a more vulnerable moment in the market than actually right now. >> Yeah. >> Uh uh and uh and we're uh before even let's say two weeks ago we were two to 300 S&P points uh above trigger points which is the market at any point could have dropped 200 points and the bulls could easily still save it because it didn't create the feedback mechanism of selling. But with us now trading down to this trigger, not only did we hit it uh uh back on that Friday sell-off, but again, here we are another Friday and uh once again coming right down to that level. We're at a situation where the triggers are persistently rising and the market is no longer rising. And so the triggers are becoming closer and closer to where the price is, making it the the best analogy to give is that the market is persistently stepping closer and closer to an edge of a cliff. And we're just waiting to see whether it loses its footing and actually uh uh uh begins some sort of a sell-off. And so for me, this is a highly fragile moment in the market. doesn't make it imminent to the day but uh I would be shocked if the market uh uh didn't wasn't already selling this month at some point right now po in this post November expiration post no uh um Nvidia earnings I have I feel there's a very good odds that we're in some sort of correction if we got a correction there are a couple key levels to watch the 38% retracement of the entire rally rally that we had. So when we take this entire rally, the 38% retracement lies around 6,200 which conveniently lies at where previous highs act like support uh where you know so previous resistance is now support. It's a technical rule that exists and it's a key Fibonacci zone. So, if for whatever reason the triggers got kicked in, uh a very fast and uh rapid drop towards 6,200 on the S&P would be the first major target point for for a market drop. And now, uh, if that sustains below the, uh, the 50-day moving average on a sustained basis, there could be another leg that sees us temporarily trade below 6,000, maybe 5,800 or so on the downside if we got that kind of selling because uh, I think it was we talked about on the show, I don't remember who was the one that um, uh, maybe you can reference a name who was the one talking about it, but the first leg of a market drop is almost always very well hedged up. There's a lot of people that hedge up on these first drops, but then they cover their hedges and the market stays very vulnerable and uh even people attempt to buy it. So when the next leg comes around, it can always be steeper and more violent uh because uh traders were not positioned for it. Much higher volatility premiums make it less attractive to hedge. All these different plays come in. And so if I was to give a sequence uh just from a logical perspective, we have a quick drop towards 6,200 when it plays out and if it if it ends up being a failed rally and uh a period we could see a a Christmas massacre scenario where we uh well, you know, it was it's a good, you know, we're going to be going in Christmas season when everyone's going to be uh uh wishing Santa's rally shows up, but we could have a a quick drop those 6,000 uh on a correction there that would put this correction in that 15 plus percent um kind of uh zone of if we got this leg and that would be all I would be looking for the first leg. Now the second question would then be if we got this kind of a correction is it being uh is it marking a correction just in uh in the fact that the market was unstable the breath of the market's deteriorating all these different things. we just needed a reset of the riskreward proposition and that once that correction happens the bull market resumes or is it going to be signifying the actual peak and and bursting of the AI AI bubble because I I don't have the answer to that by the way this is something we would discover uh only after the fact but if if it is the bursting of the AI bubble then we'd have to entertain a question does a correct ction in the market. Uh is it actually the first leg of a bare market? Uh or is there something that's going to happen uh you know uh in 2026 that this kind of a sell-off triggered? uh the best uh analog to that is the way uh the market here I'll put on a weekly chart the way that the market kind of played out in 2007 where basically there was the first leg of a market correction on the downside that happened in that November December January period and then when everyone realized that something was systemically wrong in the financial system it became a bare market and uh and that bare market really arguably started started in, you know, April of 2008 when things really rolled over and things started to deteriorate and that negative feedback loop happened. And so, uh, I'm I think it's incredibly premature to speculate on the bare market side because a lot of things actually still have to happen. Uh I mean I I'm at this moment open to the idea that this could just be a correction that is a buy on dip and and the market could still go higher. But the probability we get a correction here I think is very very high and the market has probably not been more vulnerable to the start of this correction at any point than now. Uh and uh and this is something to watch here. Do you have any comments to make or you want to >> No. So, I I first of all, I've never heard someone explain this idea of the stock market going sideways and the trigger becoming closer and closer to it. And I thought that was really smart and really well articulated. So, kudos for that. It really kind of crystallized in my mind why you believe we're much more vulnerable than we've ever been. A great example quick quick quickly I'll let you continue but I want to show you is that that this period before liberation day correction was this three four month period where exactly that same scenario happened. the stock market stopped going up and the triggers kept going higher and higher. Uh for allowing just one quick breakdown to suddenly triggered the chain reaction of systematic selling that basically and you know rises in in realized volatility that triggered that huge uh dislocation in in the positions of all of the systematic traders. And the longer we stay sideways here, uh the more vulnerable the market becomes uh to just one small uh a little drop in the market being all it took to actually create the chain reaction and that um that is definitely a vulnerability here. >> Right. The other thing I would just kind of highlight is that um you know you and I have been bearish for a little while or at least I shouldn't speak for you but I've been bearish for the past month or so and I've been getting lots of flak and people you know making fun of me calling me a grumpy old man. >> That's actually a good sign by the way. >> Yeah. But um I would kind of say like one of the things that I always love to reference is that Bruce Cner um line where he says what I'm really looking for is a market that is not confirming consensus. And to me, the consensus was that we're going to rally into year end. Everyone's bullish, yada yada yada. But the reality is when you look at the stock market, it hasn't been that strong. And it's been, as you've highlighted, it's been increasingly more and more narrow. It's it's rallied on the back of just a few stocks. And that the rest of the market is doing badly. And even the indices haven't been like, it's not like you're up huge amounts over the last month. It's kind of almost a wash in terms of where we are now. So, it it seems to me there's lots of people that are bullish and there's lots of uh folks that uh you know are selling because the reality is the stock market's not going up. So, what what are the things that um uh the kind of uh canaries in the coal mine that are slowly dying that are warning that uh that something is uh is uh uh ahead of us? One one of the things for me is the continued deterioration of market breath. Um and if you go back uh so right now we're at 44% which is and just a few >> help people what did >> I I'll explain in a second but uh but we were at 35% just a week and a half ago. Now what this is is how many stocks of the S&P 500 the 500 stocks how many of them are above their 50-day moving averages. So, like at the beginning when we talked about the 50-day moving average being a deptor of trend, um you know, at the uh after the April rally, uh we were at 85% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages. That bounce off of the liberation day low basically had huge participation. the entire stock market rose and this beautiful uh kind of rebound rally breath became super strong. We've now seen basically since July, we're talking four months of systematically lower lows and lower highs deterioration as fewer and fewer stocks continue to participate in this market. Now, this is not that important to the S&P. Why? because the market cap waiting of the MAG7s was like 36% of the last time I heard the number. I don't I don't know what it is today, but uh they're basically onethird of the entire S&P 500 in a basket of seven stocks. And um and we're in a situation where well as go the MAG7s really will go the S&P, but the underpinning market was really deteriorating. Now the the the so this deter this deterioration of breath it is to me is a huge warning. As an example you could see the breath uh really deteriorated before uh the little December correction before liberation day and then the uh and during the rally going into January and early February you basically never had breath return back above 55%. And then during liberation day, we basically go almost zero where almost every single stock in the stock market uh was in a downtrend, right? Like it wasn't zero but very close to um on that. But the point is the breath was deteriorating persistently from the August September highs. So when breath deteriorates it uh is not healthy for the market, right? You want a bull market needs good healthy broad participation the kind of like the tide rising and all boats rising in the tide that's not there. So, this has been based on Mag 7. And when we look at the Mag 7, well, there's a problem all of a sudden, right? First of all, the Mag 7 rock and rolled, right? Like you had the Mag 7 uh basically from uh from trough to peak have a 77% rally that basically drove this entire S&P move and made the NASDAQ up 50% off that same period from trough to peak. And so the MAG7s uh have this epic rally, but this is the first negative price action. Now, while we broke below the 50-day moving average for the first time this morning, we're looking to close back above it. It's like it was at the edge of the cliff and they made the big save here. But this is the first time that we have seen a selloff wipe out the entire previous rally. uh almost every prior period the sell-offs would be very short and shallow immediately bought on dip and off to a fresh new 52- week high and punching new levels, right? Like the market was systematically doing that. The fact that we wiped out the entire previous rally immediately increases the likelihood that we're witnessing a topping formation constructing itself on the MAG sevens. And so when we have the breath of the market deteriorating and the only thing that could keep this market going starting to show some warning signs, you can see that this is not this is not adding up to being good. Like where what the hell is going to save this market if uh if it's not going to have breath or the mag sevens? And uh and so this is this is where we're at with a little bit of a structural problem with the market. Now to me the beta one asset out there are the financials the XLF and uh the XLF the financials uh you know they have traditionally always participated with the S&P almost beta 1 right like they uh you know they diverge a little bit but generally they uh correct with the market and they rally with the market they've generally are a tell you can that overall we have not made any real progress since July on the financials doing anything. uh the they have been generally uh topping and uh and some technicians would love to uh jam a cookie cutter shape of a head and shoulders pattern uh on uh on the um on the the financials here, including what now was a very clear rally into what would be a right shoulder of of a of a topping. So, uh one of the canaries that's about to die is if the financials crack below 52. If we see a breakdown now, have has have the financials broken? No. Are they still within the trade range? Uh, is there some sort of sell-off? No. But with them not participating for four months, if we see the financials start to sell, this is a problem. Uh, uh, and uh, and I would consider a warning. Now, another thing that I always consider a warning is uh how are the junk bond markets trading? Very relevant considering that there's been a lot of stories pushing back on all of the AI credit that's been created uh and uh and the problems of the downgrades like uh in Oracle's debt ratings and all these different things that are happening under the surface of this. The question is when do junk bonds start to actually uh um show that the the liquidity in that market has dried up? Uh and again you had a a clear double top formation uh form up along the high and at the same time we now have had a rally off the neckline that failed at at the 50-day moving average and fib zone trading right to the neckline almost the same time as the financials index is doing the same kind of thing. Uh and so is the canary dead on the com uh on these yet? No. But what I this one wise guy I do uh this uh this show with on on the market huddle uh was made an observation that um you know that there and tell me if I'm paraphrasing it correctly but there have been a lot of 5% market corrections where junk bonds uh are uh inactive or or not participating but almost every 10 plus% market correction has usually a breakdown in high yield junk bonds on the downside. >> And and so if we have a breakdown in these high yield here, then that scenario I drew out to 6,200 and potentially even 5,800 on the S&P, which would be that 15 to 18% kind of market correction, becomes uh a reality that's on the table. Uh and so you can see have have we triggered on financials? No. Have we triggered on high yield? No. But everything is at the edge of the cliff. >> Yeah. >> And all it needs is a little push. Uh and uh and if if and what will that be? Is it going to be Nvidia's earnings? It's the most obvious thing that could be like if you're looking just on the calendar for something that could uh you know encompass uh um the uh you know where we are in this uh in this market. Nvidia is the general and uh and you know like we could take a look here. Let's just have a peek at Nvidia. But uh this was a I don't know whether you want to call it a prairie dog but it has prairie dog characteristics. >> Oh I agree. >> Uh which is that you know after an extended consolidation it tried to break out and immediately gave the entire breakout back. >> Y >> um now has it officially started a sequence of lower highs and lower lows? No. But we're in a situation where this thing hit a $5 trillion market cap and uh and the AI bubble has been the sole driver of it. And there's only one stock that truly encompasses the AI bubble uh and that's Nvidia. And so the question becomes not whether they beat because I will I will bet money that the they will beat earnings just because the the hurdle itself is always set at a place where the company can beat it. >> Uh and so >> if they don't Patrick there's going to be a disaster. >> It's going to be a disaster. But let's assume they're going to beat because I think that is a very fair assumption. But the expectations for AI have been set so high. Yeah. >> The question becomes uh is it uh is it going to be enough especially on the guidance or will it trigger those people that feel the urge to sell the news? >> Yeah. >> Uh irrespective of the beat. >> And I think the guidance is going to actually matter the most. >> That's what's going to mean everything. It's not the actual earnings. You're absolutely correct. There's if it doesn't beat, it'll be shocking and it'll be literally catastrophic if they don't beat. They're going to beat, >> but it could still be bad even with a beat depending on how they guide and where we go from there. >> Exactly. And so uh so we have a scenario here where uh if whatever a reaction to their earnings comes out and Nvidia is below that 50-day moving average uh uh within days of its earnings, um we've got a crack that that could steamroll the whole market. [snorts] >> Okay. Can I suggest something that often occurs in these sorts of situations? You get a beat, they guide, it seems positive, you get a gap higher and that gap higher gets sold. >> Absolutely. Things >> that's like like look at Oracle. >> Oracle like they beat [clears throat] they raised there's all this crap and it's being sold ever since >> and been sold ever since. The other example which even though it may not be a perfect example because Microsoft gapped before its earnings but Microsoft basically rallied for a double top retest and then on its earnings beat >> and it's been selling ever since including now trading below its 50-day moving average for two weeks. Right. And uh and so the this is definitely what uh investors have to watch for if that happens in the post Nvidia earnings. Now uh could it be a scenario where you know the incredibly high V premiums? Let me actually observe uh on my side screen here where we're already trading on Nvidia's earnings. Sorry, on its V structure. Hold on. Well, here I can also tell you what Bloomberg has got for um an expected. >> So here, right now it's at 67% on the November, but let me put the November. Yeah. Yeah. So right now 67% implied on the November 21st expiry. >> So they have a 6.3% implied move on earnings, which is shocking considering this the world's biggest company. >> Yeah. >> Right. Like that's pretty large. It is it is uh it is a large implied move and uh and so we're going to uh we're going to find out for sure uh you know whether or not this becomes a trigger point or not. Uh I I would if I I still my my spidey senses are here that the market still bounces here the days before at least Nvidia bounces the days before its earnings. I I can't imagine uh uh you know Nvidia trading at a oneweek low uh going into the earnings. Uh I feel that there's going to be enough people that are going to want to speculate where at least it's going to stabilize. >> Yeah. >> And >> and I think your call about the opex is also interesting and seems well thought out in terms of that potentially could be the moment that the bull gives it up and rolls over from there. >> Right. And these are all the kind of things that could play out. So here with the fact that the bulls saved the market again today really does put the OPEX and that Nvidia earnings as the the the kind of center point which I still think that after all the dust settles afterwards, that last week in November is a highly vulnerable moment uh for for things to really uh be moving underway. And like when we I often love to look at the markets from uh a pain trade perspective. I always like to make a base cases what could screw over the maximum amount of investors um and use that as a starting base case and uh and you know uh investors kind of being punched into the Nvidia with a little bit of a gap higher on its earnings like everything is going to be good. uh you know everything kind of all those people that have those November hedges on their uh on their books um they're all going to roll off and suddenly you know with the implied falls right now like the VIX had another jump to 22 today where is it now settling in hold right now we're at 20 on the VIX but we're now at a situation where uh hedging is no longer structurally cheap I mean it's not super expensive like we're not paying 30 plus on on implied, but it's going to make a lot of people question whether they should spend the money on hedges when they have to pay up for them. >> Yeah. Not only that, Patrick, hedging has cost money this whole period. The volatility risk premium, which is the difference between the implied and the realized has been record high for a while now. Not record high, sorry, consistently high. Meaning that versus realized, it's actually being expensive to hedge. Yeah, >> one of the things that I think that has happened is that a lot of folks have looked at that and said, "Okay, it's expensive to hedge on the stock market. I have just lost money on this." And if you actually look at gold, gold has been a better hedge in terms of protecting my portfolio. So, I think that in we've seen an increased use of gold as a hedge for the portfolios. >> I think that's such a stupid idea. [laughter] I I I think I I think it's not going to work. >> So I I agree. But if you look at Patrick, the thing is a lot of >> I'm not saying people haven't been doing it. I'm just saying that that's I think that's a really bad hedge. >> No. And I and I understand in a deflationary kind of riskoff moment, gold will also get sold and it is but if terms of the numbers over the last year, you've been better off owning gold as a hedge than you know the rate carried better, >> right? And I think that's what's happened is that a lot of folks have just looked at the numbers and realized because not only has it carried better, Patrick, but it's also worked in terms of on days when the stock market went down, it was a an an a positive risk like an up move in gold. It was negatively correlated to the sorry on down days it was negatively correlated to the stock market. >> Well, today when the market was down uh below the 50-day moving average, gold was down 150 bucks. >> No. I think that this is the problem is that a lot of people do have that on now and that there is a lot of you know stranger things happening and the other thing that I was you know you go back to your point about the fact that the market always hurts what the you know what consensus is whatever it tries to make a fool the greatest amount of people you know I can't remember which one of the 1920s traders said that but um if we look at what is consensus right now I don't know anyone well I shouldn't say that very few people think that we're not going to rally into year end. Meaning that the consensus is we're going to rally to year end. That is how everyone is positioned. And I worry because, you know, they talk about seasonalities and that was what I was going to kind of highlight when you're saying that we go down after OPX, but if you go look, everyone's passing around charts showing the seasonality and how we're approaching the most bullish time for stocks. And one of the things that I just would like to highlight here is that the seasonality didn't work in September this year. >> There's a lot of times Yeah, right. Like I almost think the seasonality, the fact that we're all looking at it so much has made it a self-fulfilling negative, you know, prophecy. Meaning that everyone is positioned for that. So therefore, it doesn't work because everyone's watching for it. You know what? You know what? I um I feel a very good exercise might be uh Kev to take the seasonality data and analyze it in the context of what the market did in the six months uh uh prior uh as a uh and a lot of guys do do that. A lot of guys do do that. I've seen it and it's still bullish. There's no doubt about it. But having said that, it was supposed to be bearish like in September and it didn't work. >> Like for me, I'll give you an example here. So going back to um this sell-off here that happened in 20123, right? It started in the summer, the traditional September October period was weak. You know, the market from uh peak to trough had a 11% correction on the downside. When a market is oversold, I love to use a a bungee cord example with no different than liberation day is that when the bungee cord is stretched to the downside, the snapback has more velocity. And so um the fact that the stock market had a seasonal Christmas rally into year end that was a 17% run on the upside made a lot of sense because the market started from a depressed level oversold corrections already been washed out. systematic traders were already repositioned and there was an opportunity for a year-end rally where >> both almost both seasonals fed on themselves and created the the the the inline seasonal moves and you're arguing almost now it's the opposite. We're seeing a situation where the September seasonal didn't work whereas we were aren't oversold into September and in fact we just rallied into it and now >> exactly the sell in May and go away. We saw the S&P 500 from May till October basically have like a 30% freaking rise. >> Yeah. >> Uh [clears throat] so like the market is starting at the highs of a a thing there. The seasonally weak period wasn't there. So why would one expect that suddenly this time around the se seasonality is going to work? You know >> Patrick, they all want it to work because that is the the consensus opinion. >> The perfect example. Yeah. perfect example of what I think uh is vulnerable even though I don't think the same percentage has to play out. But notice here from May till September of 2018, we had a market rally. Now, here's the key. Uh a Trump was in office during this time. So all of these guys that are all say, "Oh, Trump won't let the market crash." that that that that garbage that you hear out there like somehow he has this magic thing that he he can prevent the market crashes. Well, people have to remember that the Volmageddon happened under Trump and so did the Christmas massacre happen after uh while Trump was in office. So saying that somehow Trump can avo uh find a way to the to make these things not happen uh it's just like such a ridiculous statement. But point being is that uh you had a seasonal period where the the sell in May and go away was the opposite. We had a stock market that ripped higher during that period. And once October rolled around, we went through a Christmas massacre where the stock market sold off in that window of time which seasonality said was supposed to be rallying. Yeah. And uh and I think basically seasonality is a nice rule of thumb, but you need to uh to assess the over uh the the conditions of the market at the time and uh and not somehow magically say that well seasonality has always worked in the past and therefore it's going to work this time. Yeah. I think it's a horrible way to anchor yourself in the in >> I like it. Patrick is spicy about the seasonality. I like it. >> It's It's Look, it's it's not that I I'm not going to dispute the past. All I'm saying is that after this market had the largest uh rally without a 5% correction and the longest rally without a 5% correction in history, betting that oh well we can just disclude all that and just say that the market's going to keep going because uh because seasonality says so is I think dangerous assumption to make. >> I like it. >> Um uh on that front. Okay. So uh obviously we're we're talking a lot of of these equities. Another thing I wanted to just highlight before we go on because I want to talk other parts of the markets. I want to highlight that we're starting to see the cracks on small caps. Small caps have successfully also stayed above their 50-day moving averages. Yeah. >> Uh since the May low, there was one little brief little uh scare in July for a day, but overall the trend was there. We yesterday had the first legitimate close below the 50-day moving average and we didn't rebound today uh uh above it. So the small caps have actually broken and not only that they've broken to lower lows like these neck lines have already given out and so we're already seeing deterioration in some of these spaces. Now, another interesting thing is the equal weight S&P 500 looks a lot like the financials index, which is that we've already been on the equal index going through what I would consider a distribution cycle for four months, which is the bull market. So, I at Big Picture, we we divi divide the markets into four segments. And there's not just bull and bare, but there's accumulation cycles and distribution cycles. And the characteristic of distribution cycles, Kev, is is that the market holds near its highs. So people keep seeing the returns on their market value, like the bull markets made them all this money, but the market stopped going up where basically you've reached a fair value zone where there's ample supply of market up there that prevents the stock market from actually uh rising any further. And uh almost all buying is met with selling, but all selling is bought on dip. uh and it creates what technical analysts call topping formations like they become uh periods where the market is heavy. Well, we've basically been in uh this kind of a distribution cycle uh since July in the S&P equal weight just the way we have in the financials. So right now when analyzing the S&P or the MAG7s, you're analyzing Nvidia, you're analyzing the AI bubble, but when you then take the rest of the stock market, it's telling a very different story. And the best way that I can describe that is think back to 1999 and 2000 where the dot stocks ran the NASDAQ into this parabolic rise on the upside giving a historic run while the S&P 500 spent almost a year with no real progress higher. It literally stayed flat while the NASDAQ ran. And and you almost now because because Nvidia and these stocks are such huge components of the S&P that now the only way to really get that same kind of comparison is looking at the equal weight S&P versus that of the S&P or the NASDAQ. Uh because it's giving a broader picture. And so you can see a very very heavy equal weight index yet that has not broken down yet, but certainly has lost all mojo, no momentum, no no real progress. It's been stalled out here and that uh to me is just continuing to support this idea that a correction is imminent. >> Isn't that an Austin Powers uh premise of a movie that he lost his mojo? >> Yes, I I happen to steal that right now. [laughter] All right. Is there anything else you want to talk about or you want to just leave me as a stock only because I feel like it's I don't >> we got to move on. >> Okay. >> Got to move on. All right. We got to talk about gold. >> Oh, first of all, let's just the dollar. By the way, I think the dollar's a big buy on dip here. Coming back to the 50-day moving average, coming right to the fib zones. Uh, and that actually may be also something that happens in a ri riskoff cycle. In fact, with the very low implied on currencies, maybe on a uh cost adjusted basis, going long US dollar calls may be an actual very interesting hedge to put onto your portfolio because uh it's very likely that a US dollar rally may happen during a riskoff cycle and very very cheap implies making uh it have the potential to give you a real kicker if that correlation happened. >> It's funny you say that, Patrick, because this week I I looked at my portfolio and I looked at the different positions I had and I wanted to as the stock market came down, I wanted to do something in terms of, you know, was starting to work and things like that. And I was thinking about different things I could do. And then I realized that um Charlie McGilligan has been talking about all these TY V buyers like the fixed income V buyer >> and I was looking at I was like oh no wonder they're buying this it's super cheap like the move has come way down I went and looked at these call these positions and it was it wasn't really they were just V bets as opposed to direction bets and I realized that one of the issues is that the government's been closed there's been no information so there's even Though you would think logically market still moves around, it hasn't. It because it doesn't know how to deal with the lack of information. So now that the government's reopening, I think what you're seeing is an increase in people that are willing to now all of a sudden buy V again because they think there's going to be some releases. So V is being bid in the fixed income square. I think it's also being bid in the stock market square. And I think that was yesterday. Part of the problem Thursday was there's just a relentless bid in the VIX and that caused a lot of selling and it kind of fed upon itself. But this is a long winded way of saying Patrick I also bought some foreign exchange v and I didn't even say for the first time ever I usually have a view in terms of like I'm going to you know be bullish on the US dollar bearish on whatever and I've gone and I've instead of actually betting on a direction I've just bet on V. said, "Yeah, straddled it." Strangled straddles. Straddles. I'm just gonna get long ball because I think that you're spot on correct. This is too cheap. I still contend. It's been one of my worst calls in terms of expecting there to be some FX fireworks and there have not been any. And I haven't talked about it in a while, but it was just this kind of hit a point where I was like, "Oh, it's time to buy them again." So, I went out and bought some, you know, tried to pick away at some one-year stuff. I think that it's cheap. I also bought some fixed income vault. You'd be proud of me. I'm trading that. I think that I, you know, there's this whale out there that's doing this big buy of volatility out in the actual T- bond pit. >> And I kind of just tag along with them. I'm saying like, yeah, this is cheap. And I look into the the last couple months of the year here. I think there a lot could happen. There's we got the government reopening. We got economic stuff. we have the Trump uh you know we won't get into it but there's a lot of political issues in terms of things like that. >> Yeah. So, so the interesting uh thing that I saw from um I'm trying to remember which analyst was a a report I saw it on, but um the the interesting thing uh that he made the comment was was that is it possible that everyone's waiting for a bare market uh uh sorry, a uh recession to inevitably trigger a bare market. But what if it's the opposite that a bare market triggers a recession? Oh, Cupy's been saying that forever. That's his line. He says, "In the old days, recessions cause stocks to go down. These days, stocks going down cause recessions, >> right?" And so, so the question becomes uh if we end up having some sort of AI bubble burst, which is by the way not something I want to think, while I believe the stock market corrects, I think the AI bubble uh bursting is going to be a 2026 story. uh that it's going to take months for us to really know for sure that that's materializing. And I don't want to stick my neck on the chopping block making that call. But if the AI AI bubble burst and it it rolled, which means that the S&P would not make a higher high uh um uh going into after some correction, then uh that could lead to a recession because the stock market will get hammered again and panic will uh will kick kick in and that could be that trigger point that creates it. And no matter how many people out there say, "Well, Trump won't allow this to happen." Well, there's only so much his tweets are going to be able to do. Um, let's uh let's >> Not only that, they all think, "Oh, he's going to do stimulus checks." Eventually, the the the fiscal room runs out. Like we're seeing that in the UK. They go, they try to stimulate and the bond market revolts. >> Yeah. >> And so, we see that and eventually there will be no fiscal room in the US. I don't know when that is, but there will hit a point or there'll be less fiscal room and they won't be able to do it in the B and the stock market will actually react negatively at which point people will say it's okay he'll do yield curve control and you go okay fine he uses a yield curve control guess what happens to the dollar at that point >> there are limits to this >> isn't it ironic Patrick that like all the guys that kind of against the MMT and and were so negative about the idea about there was no real resource constraint and it was always a financial constraint And now they've all of a sudden become there's just no restraints period that they got that that everyone seems to have forgotten that there are limits. And I I 100% believe that there are limits. But we've somehow been lulled into this belief that that there's no limits and that Trump can just keep printing and printing and printing. So yes, at an extreme he could cause this you the stock market to stay bid because he could just, you know, inflate his way out of it. 100%. No doubt about it. But that's that's I just want to make this clear. >> Eventually that ends up being a nominal game as opposed to a real, you know, real return game. Yeah. >> And the reality is that there are limits from a real on a real return basis if he can protect the the stock market, >> right? And uh I want to just also highlight one quick thing. You know, a lot of people talk about uh the midterms and that that that they won't allow the stock market to go down into midterms. Uh correct me if I'm wrong, but the Christmas massacre was actually well underway during the midterms of of Trump's last administration in that 20 thou the end of 2018. And so this idea that there isn't or can't be some sort of a market event occurring into midterms. Well, there are clear evidence in previous market cycles, including one where Trump was president where this happened. And so >> a silly boy though, you don't understand how much smarter Trump has gotten, Patrick. Well, >> that's your problem. >> And more powerful. He's definitely more powerful now. That's your problem. Uh the um so the the the next thing I uh I want to talk about is also a a risk asset um uh problem is the fact that crypto is selling. Uh like you know that is your kind of quintessential risk asset and lower highs lower lows already a double top broken the necklines in full cell mode. I'm not trying to make bold calls about where Bitcoin is going, but rather that a risk asset distributing this way um is a sign of liquidity flows uh and uh and the fact that it's selling I think is also uh a further evidence that the market remains vulnerable. >> Got it. The next thing I >> gold okay >> so uh I made a call when that high came in that uh that was going to be the high of the year and a lot of anxiety for me uh when the last little rip happened over the last couple of days like if gold was going to re-res the importance of the 4200 level on the on the um uh gold price because uh often corrections happen in uh two waves. Uh what I I often use this uh drawing tool to simplify that and uh and there uh from a very oversold state, gold bouncing was the expected thing. We in fact published trades going long silver and doing a bunch of other trades on short-term trades expecting this kind of a bounce. But this 4,200 level is right where the fib retracement is, which is the typical kind of highly vulnerable area for where these point B's on corrections happened. The fact that we reversed a h 100 plus dollars uh on gold off of that that high point leaves very much on the table that there could still be one more leg down. Now overall, I remain big picture bullish gold. I think gold will be a 5,000 plus a year from now and so on. What we're just talking about is the fact market corrections happen and gold is not some magic asset that does gets to avoid having corrections. It it it gold is just another asset and it trades like every other asset out there and we went through a bull run. Now, it's important to highlight that the previous four corrections on gold lasted anywhere from two months to four months before gold was able to break to a fresh new 52- week high. Uh and and so uh with this only being 30 days into this correction, this I uh would be the shortest corrective sequence we would have had of the this being the fifth correction of the last four I was I'm referring to, you know, where after such a big run, if this thing already a month in was already breaking to 52- week highs, it would be the shortest correction in in all of them before a new high is printed. And so I still am in the camp that the the vulnerability is that gold chops through the rest of the year. Uh whether that ends up being a big horizontal triangle formation or whether that ends up being a correction that still prints 3,800 or 3700, I still think gold is in a corrective mode. It will lead to the next bull market in gold. I'm not trying to be bearish other than that it's I don't feel that this is that holy if you didn't buy uh you missed it and you know you got to buy everything and anything. I think there's still time to position into gold throughout the next month or so. I think there was going to be a lot of fake out rallies, a lot of sideways consolidations. Uh and if there is going to be a fresh breakout, it's going to be a 2026 story. uh is is my uh my kind of sequencing in terms of timing on the upside. Like uh interesting that silver uh did a direct retest. Will that in the end be a double top? It's so premature to draw that conclusion, but it did stall at its previous high uh which uh is usually a key resistance level. The sell-off that we saw in the last two days is coming already. I'm going to put this quickly on a 4hour chart and highlight that it ca slammed straight into the Fibonacci zone. I mean, if we see silver in any way sustained below $50, it increases the likelihood that it was a double top uh and uh and that silver is going to still be correcting for a little bit. If the bulls are going to save this thing and and keep silver running, it's going to stay above 50 the whole time. And that's the easiest way for I think all our listeners to look at it. Silver stays bullish so long as it's staying abu in the 50 handle or higher. And uh if we have anything start breaking below 50 then the risk of a double top and a deeper correction becomes much higher probabilities. >> Got it. >> All right. Next thing I still don't think oil breaks to a lower low. I uh and you know what? We had a big sell day. Everyone was reaching for excuses as to why that selloff happened um the other day uh you know like what Trump promised certain gas prices. What what other headline was there that you saw? >> No, there was a million. >> There was a million garbage ones. There was not one legitimately good one. Uh and uh >> by the bull. >> But [laughter] no, but like like I like >> Yeah. >> I like legitimate things. What happens is that the everyone loves to have a reason for everything. The idea you say, well, no, there were just more sellers than there were buyers seems completely unacceptable to anyone to say there there has to be a reason for everything. >> Oh, and you know, I I'll tell you, as a guy who sat on a desk and had orders that moved markets, it's way more random and arbitrary over the short run than anyone imagined. Exactly. like they just do like I remember sitting there and waiting because you know one of my big clients was going to get long can Canada like was going to increase their equity uh uh exposure and I remember talking to the trader going like is is it is the order coming and he goes oh no somebody's sick we're going to have to wait a week okay so they waited a week to do it because they had to go through the investment committee or whatever right so then the next week comes and he gives me this order and it's like monstrous and we're like buying the Canadian market for like a week and we're just constantly on the bid, right? And so we're sending it up and I'm watching TV and I'm watching them talk about why it's going up and they're coming up with like the news of this blah blah blah blah and I was like that's I just bought this thing. I [laughter] like I knew why it was going up. I knew that it could have just as easily been the previous week. And then uh you know other times I've seen uh you know a portfolio manager fall in love you know like Fidelity gets in there and they fall in love with a stock and the reality is that they'll buy that stock for a month and it'll be going up day after day after day >> taking the positions. >> Yeah. And and and and so people will read everything into like the one specific day and I'm like it's just BS. Like it is way more random than people think over the short run. Over the long run, it all gets sorted out and it is going to go where it's going to go. But to explain the short-term movements so precise, I just laugh whenever I hear someone saying silly. So, and so point being here, what I find interesting is yesterday we dipped straight into a fib retracement like right into the 61.8 8 with that red candle and we reversed and we're almost completely reversed the entire breakdown candle in uh in two days. Um and so dips are being bought now. Are we above the 50-day? Have we broken this descending trend line? We actually still are in bare mode in the sense that there is absolutely nothing bullish yet that has happened. >> Right. Um uh but I also think that this has all of the characteristics of a bottoming formation and I still think there's plenty of room and you know like one of the big things like it's like I'm shocked that no one see it's like one of those things I think will be that nobody cares until everyone cares all at once. Yeah. Yeah. I think I think uh the Venezuela buildup is very much that like everyone there's this buildup and no one seems to care and I've heard even some crazy argument made by someone that uh that this is that it's actually bearish for oil if they they attack Venezuela because that means that they're going to bring all of that oil onto the market >> eventually long term long run but but they they're trying to make an argument that this is not going impact the oil market. >> Who is that idiot? Who's that idiot that's saying something like that? >> I'm not I'm not going to say his name on. But >> be kind of you not make a fool of that guy. >> Yeah. But the point being here that uh I still think it's one of those things that when it becomes a reality and you don't see this kind of a buildup. Some people were saying online that this is the largest military buildup since Iraq by the US in in one area. And uh the idea that they're moving this many resources and they're going to do nothing is to me unlikely. >> I just think there's better reason there's better reasons to be long oil than than moving some ships across into Venezuela, you know, close to Venezuela. And listen, maybe you're right. I don't know. I just could sentiment. What could shift sentiment though? And this is the thing. There's a lot you're giving me a lot of fundamental re uh reasons why oil will inevitably turn and I agree with them but I'm what I'm curious about and I'm just curious. I'm not even know if I want to make the bull call but I think the oil will react to it. >> I don't know. We'll see. Well, we'll see. >> I I >> you seem pretty sure that it's going to happen and you seem pretty sure that oil is going to happen. >> I personally are saying more than One second. One second. Are you saying more than like two bucks, three bucks? Are you you're talking like 10 >> to be honest if to me >> I would think that there's something wrong with the markets if we did not have a two to3 dollar reaction on on a news headline. No, no, but two or three. We went down two. So, like I'm talking something real. Like, are you talking six bucks, seven, eight? >> Well, think about it. Uh we got a $10 move on them bombing the um uh Iranian u nuclear sites, which was arguably a highly fragile moment because if it escalated into uh a genuine hot war of some sort um and a and a disruption of the uh the canal uh there there could have been real problems. >> Yes. So I would be much more willing to say that that was >> a lot riskier than Venezuela. Like that really mattered. >> I just feel that the sentiment is so bearish right now on oil that it just needs a spark. It just needs something to light a fire. Uh and the the uh uh CTA's flipping and uh and people feeling like they need to have skin in the game. Suddenly the people will not be able to uh to get filled and they're chasing and they'll a short squeeze is underway like that that when this you got this kind of environment I think the asymmetry is massively skewed to the upside uh in terms of where's the next five to$10 move I think it's a to the upside not downside I mean look we can't rule out that this thing trades to 55 bucks and double bottoms its October low. Uh it's not impossible, but if if I was to say where's the next real legitimate move, it's got to be to the upside in my opinion. >> Okay, >> what else you got? >> Uh look, only thing that I wanted to highlight on uranium like okay so uh let's talk about uh uranium stocks for a moment. uh they have started to break down but what I find fascinating is the V structure uh in uh in the uranium stocks they have like during that rally v stayed relatively calm I'm just pulling it up here uh but what we have seen uh is the implies have virtually doubled uh in the last uh kind of three months uh we went from being down in the low 30s to up in the 60 plus percent range of implied volatilities on not only Kamico but all these uranium names alto together. Now, the volatility on the way up was as volatile on the way down, but it's crazy. Like a 60% handle on uh on these stocks, um like to me it's making it very difficult to put on any options trade uh in the uh uranium markets. Uh like literally uh going long gamma is um is making the riskreward payoff ridiculously awful. Uh and uh and it's just one of these scenarios where like uranium here like I would not be shocked if we were either down at 35 bucks on this or up at 5560 in a in a month or two. I think these implied are are showing just how volatile the situation is here on these stocks. question I have for you. Do you are you in the camp that these uranium stocks were all basketed in the AI uh story and that if the AI market turns that it will change the liquidity flows on uranium story? >> So I do agree with that but I don't think that's why V is bid. >> Well no it's not why no and I think the market is actually correctly priced that really high. Um, uranium is an important um, commodity for this administration and I would say that the chances of something happening there are higher than sorry not higher than the market expects because the market expects a lot but higher. the the option market is correctly anticipating an increased chance that something occurs uh that's outside the realm of traditional finance is what I would say there I think that they're here's how I would put this they're anticipating a political move and I think that they're correct in in having those sorts of vaults >> right >> and I think it's interesting you bring that up because I I didn't I I hadn't looked at the volatility, but that makes complete sense to me. Um, I will say this, >> I'm not I'm not sure I'm not saying it's stupid. It's just stupid for trading it. Like I I the problem is for me with such high V, I'm finding it very challenging to construct um like any good payoff profile on on trades. It literally I mean all you've got all you have is spreads. Like you can go with like some quick little uh spread trades to try to dampen the V impact, but uh beyond that, it's so hard to put on any uh uranium trade here. >> Yeah, completely agree. But the market might be that rich for a reason. >> Yes. Okay. What else? >> Might be right price. The last thing, well, this is it. Last thing, um I wanted to just touch on the Cosby. [snorts] And so one of the interesting things and I I'm shocked that I didn't bother to talk about this on the show for until now, but the Cosby has been the hottest market. >> Why don't you tell people what the Cosby is for? >> Sorry, the South Korean index, right? And Samsung and what's the other big uh um there's something high. Exactly. Some Highix name, whatever it was. the the two major plays that are associated with the AI story. Uh and so this has become those stocks have become the Nortells of the Canadian market in a sense. Not not that I'm predicting that they're going to blow up like Nortell, but rather they're waiting in the South Korean index has become so big that they are the South Korean index, right? like they've literally um just become crit uh the entire performance and so as Samsung went 100% so did the Cosby like I mean we had a a trough to peak rally of 85% uh in uh in this index it blew the NASDAQ out of the water. Yeah, this is incredibly narrow uh in that, you know, even at least with the mag sevens, you're actually more diversified in uh in their businesses uh than you are in the two stocks inside the Cosby. And to me, I feel that this is the other canary in the coal mine. when the Cosby is officially peaked out and reversed uh it I think will be a very good sign that the AI bubble has burst. >> Okay. I I I get it. Yeah. >> Yeah. like uh and uh and it's it's interesting one because you know for those uh you know relative uh those traders that do you know uh the relative trades like uh long short combinations the fact that the co the Cosby went from 20 V this is a country's index went from 20 V to 40 V >> to 40 V >> because of the right tail not because of the left tail >> but but it did because of the right tail But the V is double that of the QQQ. That to me is a disparity. >> So I I I don't pay for the Cosby B index data. So I don't know what the waiting is. But I did pull up the EWY which is the EyesShares MSCI South Korea index and I'm looking at Samsung is 23% and SKH Highix that's the name of it is 18%. So what do we got there? 41% like uh >> 40 that's it's literally Nortell BCE. >> Yeah. But also though the the top 10 names in the S&P 500 top 10 is the same. So, they've got two stocks that are the the same waiting as the top 10 in the >> This to me is the most ridiculous thing. Like like literally you uh and and so with the implied doubling, I honestly think that you could play a uh a relative trade, do a a long QQQ against a short Cosby trade here. uh and uh I think that uh that you're going to on the upside at this point from this level the QQQ would outperform I think the Cosby and at the same time if the it turned I think the Cosby will drop faster and deeper than uh than the NASDAQ will. It's an interesting idea for a long short pairing. >> Spicy. I like it. >> Okay, that's all I got. That's all I got. >> Okay, that's great stuff, Patrick. >> Okay, thank you everyone for tuning in. Uh, it was great to get this master class from our buddy Patrick Szna. Why don't you tell us where they can learn more about these sorts of great ideas. >> A shameless plug. You can find me at bigpicturer trading, but uh uh at bigpicturetraing.com, but you can also follow uh a lot of my video updates on my YouTube channel uh patrick_resnas. So you I'm putting out more content out there. So uh you don't have to wait every two weeks to get this update here. I I bring all sorts of insights throughout the week each week. >> There you go. Patrick_resna. Wait, I was ceas. >> Thank you. Oh my god. >> On the YouTube. All right. So, >> and you can go to macroourists.com and listen. Bare market bull market. We're just happy to spend some time together on this great fabulous ride. Now, stick around for the after show. >> Okay. Pumpkin beer. What do we got? >> Oh my god. This is This is so like literally I only drank one quarter of it and I'm not going to drink the rest. Like this is this No. No matter how bad of a rating I've given. >> Yep. >> This is the one of the first times I've not actually finished the >> That's true. That is really for you that is condemnation. Uh you know the worst. >> 2.1 >> 2.1 Well, at least it wasn't an amateur score like dang >> I literally I Yeah, absolutely. No, you know what? I I'm gonna I am never gonna ever consider buying this beer ever again. >> Are you one of these guys who likes the pumpkin spice? Because I can't stand it. I think it's awful. >> I don't like anything pumpkin. >> Like do you like pumpkin pie? >> I'm I'm mid. I'm mid. And in other words, like that's that's a term my children taught me. It's a gen Gen Zed talk. But uh but I'm I'm not a a hater of pumpkin, but it's not like something I'm looking for. Oh, it's a pumpkin season. like, you know, like I'm not uh if it's there I I'm more than willing to uh >> eat it. But yeah, it's it's >> I'm not a fan. I'll take an apple pie any day or or some chocolate. >> Absolutely. >> So, bud, I was in Toronto last week. We didn't we didn't uh >> Oh, yeah. Why didn't you call me? >> I Yeah, we didn't meet up, but uh >> of course I come to Toronto, it freaking snows. >> Yeah. Well, it's your fault. >> It is my fault. >> You brought it like they were like 6 in of snow in early November. Like the idea of Toronto even having snow at Christmas is sometimes something people dream about and here in November that lays down like >> you know what was interesting it also stayed for a little while which was very unusual like that usually you'll kind of get like that you know the one day and then the next day it goes to 10° and it all melts. This one it stayed cold and it stayed on the ground. >> Yeah. >> Well anyways it's your fault. I blame you. And also this not not phoning me up. This is >> dude. I I had a packed schedule. I was I flew in for a wedding and >> yeah, like I I had I had some uh other stuff. If I had free time, I I I'd love to, but when I come back, you know, and I'm defin I was thinking about coming back in the winter, but I remember being snowed in and my flights being cancelled for 48 hours in February, so I might wait till the spring [music] to show up uh my face in Toron. Well, listen. Over winter, I'm thinking about maybe going somewhere in Europe for a little bit. So, if we do that, [music] if I end up somewhere, come to my place in Italy. Uh, we're going to be just some skiing up in >> Okay. Well, anyways, if we do that, we should figure out a market that'll meet up somewhere fun in Europe. [music] We should do one wherever. We'll we'll try to figure something out. >> Um, you know, and uh we'll go and get all those Europeans and we'll have drink some beers and they can teach us what real beer's like. >> All right. None of the >> Well, let's let's uh let's wrap things up. Thanks everyone for tuning in. >> Thanks.