Bitcoin to $250K? Ran Neuner: This Crypto Cycle Is Not Over Yet
Summary
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Ran Neuner forecasts Bitcoin could reach $200,000 to $250,000 before the current cycle ends, highlighting the potential for significant gains.
Crypto Cycles: Bitcoin operates in four-year cycles tied to the halving events, with aggressive runs in Bitcoin and altcoins typically occurring in the last part of the cycle.
Market Indicators: Current indicators, such as the fear and greed index, suggest the cycle is not near a top, as retail investor exuberance is not yet evident.
Interest Rates Impact: Bitcoin's price typically peaks after rate cuts are complete and rates start to rise again, but this cycle is different as rate cuts have just begun.
Digital Asset Treasury Companies: These companies, like MicroStrategy, are driving market activity by raising funds to buy and stake crypto assets, influencing Bitcoin and Ethereum prices.
Institutional Involvement: Increased institutional participation through ETFs and treasury companies is making crypto markets more stable, reducing the severity of corrections.
Altcoin Season: The market is transitioning from Bitcoin to Ethereum and potentially to large-cap altcoins, indicating the early stages of an altcoin season.
Investment Strategy: Investors should watch for signs of market euphoria and be prepared for both long and short cycles, emphasizing the importance of a diversified investment approach.
Transcript
Bitcoin still has quite a way to go. Right now, Bitcoin is trading at $114,000. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin gets to 200 $250,000 before this cycle ends and we go into some kind of bare market. All cycles end with exuberance and we're nowhere near the exuberance. [Music] Throughout September, we're shining the spotlight on gold with a lineup of expert conversations, sharp market analysis, and practical investment guidance. To dive deeper, make sure to grab our complimentary gold investing report using the link in the description below. Hello and welcome to Wealthon. I'm Maggie Lake. Joining us today to talk about the outlook for crypto is Ran Nuner, founder of Cryptobanter. Hi Ren, it's great to have you on. Hey Megan, nice to be here. So before we jump in, if you are watching this and have questions about anything we discussed, go ahead and put them in the comments section and we'll do our best to address them in upcoming segments. If you do not own crypto and are trying to figure out if it's for you, you can get a free portfolio review from one of the adviserss in the Wealthy Network. Just click the link in the description or go to wealthon.comfree. So Ran, we've seen a huge runup in Bitcoin over the last year. Big change in the political environment here in the US around cryptocurrencies and digital assets, but I I'm hearing a lot of people sort of a little bit nervous, wondering if we're hitting a peak in the cycle, if we're going to see these sort of volatility and big drawdowns that have been characteristic of this sector in the past. So just curious what your outlook is. So I want to show you a chart. Okay. So essentially, if you know anything about crypto, what you'll know is that crypto actually moves in four-year cycles, right? And the four-year cycles kind of tend to work around the Bitcoin hing cycle. The Bitcoin hing cycle is effectively an event in in the Bitcoin software, which halves the number of Bitcoin that are emitted by the software. And generally we find that the cycles work in line with the hing cycles. And how do they work? Well, the the the Bitcoin h havinging happens and happens every four years. It happened in 2016. It happened again in 2020. It happened again in 2024. After the hinging, about 575 days after the harving, we get a top. And so, if you look at 2016 and you look at 575 days after uh the the hing, we topped in 2020. That was when the hing happened. And about 575 days later, we topped. And then the third time we had a hing in 2024. And if you basically get up to where it is right now in about 8 weeks, that would take us to what is supposed to be the cycle top. And so if you look just at the hing cycle, you would say, "Hold on a second. We're probably good to we're probably keen to we're probably close to a cycle top." And and that is possible. And we'll talk about that in a second. But also in the last 8 weeks, 10 weeks, 12 weeks of the cycle, the last part of the cycle as you can see here in 2016 and you can see the same thing happened in 2021 and the same thing starting to happen again is you get a very very very aggressive run in Bitcoin. More than that, you get a much more aggressive run in what they call the altcoins, which is all the coins that are not Bitcoin and smaller than Bitcoin. And generally in the last part of the cycle, what you get is you get this alt season where you get the altcoins outperforming Bitcoin by a lot, right? And so I'll show you I'll show you an interesting chart here. If you go to total three divided by BTCUSD, which shows you the total three chart relative to Bitcoin, um what you'll realize is that in the last part of the cycle, in the last part of the cycle, this actually really, really, really spikes. That's the period where the altcoins outperform Bitcoin. So if this cycle is the same as any of the other cycles, then we could be heading towards uh a top in 8 to 10 weeks. That's under the assumption that you use the h havinging cycle as your guide, which has been the most accurate guide to date. And you believe that this cycle will be the same as the previous two cycles. That's what the explain why people are nervous and sort of talking about this. Yeah. But there's another um uh uh thing that you need to look at when you're looking at this and that is I'm going to see if I can actually get it into this which is US int. Okay. So let me bring it bring in a second chart over here which is the US interest rates. So if you take Bitcoin and you overlay that against US interest rates, what you'll realize is that generally Bitcoin tops when after the rate cuts are complete and when the rate cuts start to go up again. Okay, but that's very different from this cycle. In this cycle, the rate cuts have just started. We haven't completed a rate cut cycle and started to go up again. Now again, you can see it over here. You can see it in in pretty much all the cycles. the rate cuts first complete and then when we start raising that is when Bitcoin actually tops. Right? So, you can see actually I'll I'll line up these charts because I think that will make it um let's let's line up these charts. I think that will make it and let's line up uh Hold on. Let's make that chart bigger and let's make that chart and that chart equal to each other. I think there you can kind of see it much much much more. Mhm. the the cycle usually the cycle usually tops when the Bitcoin when when when the interest rates are cuts are done and we start going back into a tightening cycle. So this cycle is very very very different right um so there's a lot of people are saying look we got to be re we're nearing a top etc etc when I look at the indicators right now they're not showing me that there is going to be a top and in fact if anything they're showing me that this cycle may actually carry on for another 10 or 12 months I'll show you another indicator here and this is a very simple indicator it's called the fear and greed indicator and the reason why the fear and greed indicator is so important is because if you know anything about markets what you'll know is that markets are not driven by fundamentals. They're driven by a sentiment, right? And and markets oscillate between fear and greed. And so if you go to the fear and greed indicator and what you'll realize is that markets go from extreme fear to extreme greed. And that's basically what a market cycle is. Now generally when we top and by the way this here was was a top. The markets tend to stay at fear and greed for quite a long period of time. At extreme greed for quite a long period of time. That's a very important part of the cycle. The reason why it's such an important part of the cycle is because markets usually end with what they call blowoff tops. What is a blowoff top? A blowoff top is when the more unsophisticated investor as we call them the retail investor comes into a market and gets you know comes into market thinks they make money. as they make money, they bring more and more money into the market until eventually they get flashed out and the the whales, which are the more experienced investors, actually land up winning. Now, in order to get the retail investor to come into the market, you need to have a sustained period of extreme greed, you need to have a sustained period where it feels like anyone can come here and make money and that is when markets generally top. Now, if I look at the fear and greed index today, the fear and greed index is still neutral. And generally it takes it takes about the fear and greed index being up at about there for about 8 weeks before markets actually top. So if this cycle is about to end in 8 weeks, well where is the exuberance? Where is the fear? I mean where is the greed? Where are the pe where are where are the retail investors? The retail investors are nowhere to be found. They're nowhere they nowhere near they nowhere near this market yet, right? And so that's another indicator that kind of shows me that there's there's not this retail exuberance. We haven't started that last part of the cycle yet. And so I highly, highly, highly doubt that this cycle is about to end. If anything, I put my money on a cycle that is another year, 10 months to a year long. There's one other factor towards it and that is the Jerome Pal factor. Um, what is the Jerome Pal factor? Well, we know that Trump isn't really mad about PAL and that there's some kind of friction between Trump and Pal at the moment. tomorrow or this week, we're going to get the first rate cuts of the Trump presidency. And I think sometime next year in May, Trump will appoint a new Fed chair, which will be slightly more um on Trump's side and slightly more loosening on the economy. And I think that, you know, we should we should at least be able to run until then. As part of our gold interview series this month, Trey Reich will be hosting a gold investing webinar on Wednesday, September 17th. Send your questions for Trey about gold or gold's miners to info@wealthon.com. And Wealthon together with SCP Resource Finance will be hosting a global silver conference this October in Toronto. Eric Sprat will be delivering the keynote and it promises to be a landmark gathering for silver investors. You can find out more in the details in the description below. So that's so interesting. So the having aside that would suggest that we're nearing a top. You're not seeing all the other um indicators that would confirm that to you. We're not seeing alt season. We're not seeing exuberance. Um we're getting we're we're at a different point in the interest rate cycle. What do you what if there's no retail in who's driven the gains up to where they are now? Okay, so this is what they call the CBBI indicator. Now, the reason why I love this indicator so much is that this indicator is a combination of nine other indicators, right? And this indicator shows when we're near a cycle top. So, you can kind of see that in this indicator over here went up here and that's where we got the cycle top over here, right? And here we got a cycle top over here. The reason why I use this indicator is because it takes nine other indicators. So, you don't have to actually go through the individual indicators. It's not showing me at all that that there's any kind of exuberance. In fact, we usually top when this thing's at about 95 or 100 and it usually stays there for quite a while. As you can see over here, we're on 76 and it's it's nowhere near topping. So, you asked, well, if retail is not here, well, then who's driving this market? So, this market currently is divided into two parts. The first part is Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salana. And then there's the rest of the market. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana are effectively the largest tokens out there. Not exactly, but let's just say more or less the largest tokens out there. Bitcoin is the biggest. Uh ETH is the second biggest and Salana is probably the third or fourth biggest. So, who's driving this? Well, it's this thing called digital asset treasury companies. So, you've got the ETFs. You've got ETFs on Bitcoin and ETH, and they are driving the Bitcoin and ETH flows. And then you've got this thing called the digital asset treasury company. Now, let me break it down for you. All a digital asset treasury company is is a company that's listed on the NASDAQ that allow that that raises money for the sole purpose of buying the asset and staking the asset, right? That's what a digital asset treasury company is. And what you the first digital asset treasury company was Micro Strategy. Your viewers may be familiar with Michael Sailor. And what he did was he found a way to tap into trades to buy crypto assets. That was the big the big uh the big revolution is he managed to tap Wall Street debt and equity markets in Wall Street to buy crypto assets. He was a he is a financial engineering genius. He did this by approaching fixed income investors and creating convertible instruments which gave them equity upside. Um he did this through through uh convertible convertible pre shares and stuff like that. When people saw this playbook, they said, "Okay, well, if Michael Sailor is doing this in Bitcoin, we'll do it in ETH. We'll do it in Salana." And so now you've got a lot of these digital asset treasury companies which are raising money from Tradfi and investing that money into crypto assets. Most notably, Tom Lee, who's a big CNBC contributor, he um he raised a big fund, a big company called BMNR, Bitman. Sorry, let me just get let me get you guys a chart so you can actually see it. B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V BMnR bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit bit mine immersion uh technologies and you can see let me actually break that down so you can actually see it better B MNR and you can see what the share performance has done right it's gone it went all the way up and it's it's now continuing the climb up and there's a lot of these there's another one called SBET or Sharink which is Joseph Luben who's the co-founder of Ethereum and again this one went all the way up and is starting to climb up here These digital asset treasury companies are bringing trades into crypto assets and right now they are what is driving the market and that's why if you look at Bitcoin and ETH and Sana they've pretty much outperformed all the other all the other altcoins. That's so interesting and and thank you for underscoring that because I think Tom Lee, you mentioned his name, he's one of the people, public figures if you will, that comes on and has some really high forecasts and targets for Bitcoin where the price may go. So, it's interesting if he's running these funds that are buying it. Um, I think that's good to keep in mind. First of all, do you what what where do you see if if we are not at the cycle peak, do you have price targets for Bitcoin? Where do you see this going given the gains we've already seen this year? So, let's go back to the Tom D discussion because actually Tom D has been a longtime contributor to CNBC and he's become quite a credible voice in the industry. Um, but I mean, how credible is he if he's at the head of one of these companies and effectively he's talking his own book? Every time he goes out there and he says, "Well, ETH's going to outperform." You got to keep asking yourself, well, is ETH going to outperform or is Tom Lee actually uh um is to is Tom Lee actually talking his own book? Exactly. Which which I guess is natural. I mean, if you're the chairman of a company that buys Ethereum, I guess you got to be very bullish cryptocurrencies and very bullish the underlying asset, which which is Ethereum. Um I think your next question was well when do I see the cycle ending? Was that the question? Where where do you see it going? What's your outlook your price outlook if you think that we are not near a top or a peak? So it's very difficult to to talk uh a specific price. Um I would imagine that Bitcoin still has quite a way to go. Right now Bitcoin is trading at $114,000. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin gets to $200 $250,000 before this cycle ends and we go into some kind of bare market. Uh if that if that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if ETH goes to $15,000. Uh Salana maybe to $1,000. Um just to give you an idea, ETH is current trading at $4,520. Salana is trading at $233. Wow. So, I think there's quite a lot of upside in in in the cycle. I know it sounds crazy to people that aren't in crypto, but I'm going to zoom out in this chart and just show you what can happen in a crypto move. Here is where Salana went up from $22 all the way up to um $264 in a matter of 105 days, 3 months at the end of the previous cycle. So, you know, like I know to normal investors this thing this seems crazy, but you need to have one cycle in crypto to realize that uh these things can happen. And every time that I've faded it, I've I've always eaten my words. They tend to have parabolic moves. Um, you know, when you're when you're talking about this, it sort of reminds me, I don't know if you if you see any correlation, but it reminds me when people talk about commodity super cycles, right? There are times when commodities can move really, really rapidly. It sounds similar to that. Yeah. Now take a commodity that because these are digital commodities, most of them. Um, and now take a digital commodity that is truly truly truly scarce with a very very low market cap. And now kind of imagine imagine you would have got into gold when gold had a market cap of a trillion dollars or when gold's now sitting at 15 or$20 trillion or whatever the number is. That's where you're at. And so the moves can be quite aggressive. Look, the Bitcoin moves are getting less and less aggressive with every cycle. So I'll show you I'll show you uh the difference between the 2017 and the 2021 cycle. So if you take bottom to top in 2017 in 2017, so we'll take we'll take that as the bottom and we'll go all the way up to top in 2017. That was a 14,000% move give or take. If you go bottom to top in 2021, which I mean you can probably say that's the bottom. That was a 2,000% return, right? And if you look at at this cycle, which is from there to there, we're only on 660% return, right? So you can see that the returns are getting marginally smaller. Uh but there's probably more returns to be made in the smaller assets and that's what happens in the last part of the cycle, the last 8 n 10 weeks of the cycle. Now again, I do think the cycle structurally is different, but I'm also cognizant that it may be the same as all the other cycles. Effectively what I'm doing is I'm watching this cycle and I'm looking for the the indicators of fear and exuberance. And if I find those indicators of fear and exuberance, then I'm going to succumb to the fact that this cycle may be the same as all the other cycles. Many traders have been wrecked by thinking that this time is going to be different. And it's very important that you don't fall into that trap. So, as much as we want it to, as much as our bias is, because we're all crypto holders, and to be honest, I don't believe that we've got enough return this cycle, but you know what? I've got to be open to the fact that the cycle doesn't care whether or not I believe that I've got my returns for the cycle and that the cycle will end when the cycle ends. And I've got to be I've got to look out for the signs of euphoria and and greed and and everything else that's associated with it. The one thing I can say with conviction is that every single cycle ends with euphoria. You can look at it here. Let me let me get get us another index over here. Crypto fear and greed index. Here we go. Hopefully it'll hopefully it'll calculate. So all cycles end with exuberance and we're nowhere near the exuberance as you can see. In fact, we're only halfway up the only halfway up the chart. So, for now, all the indicators are safe. Uh, going forward, well, let's wait and see. Um, we're hoping for a long cycle, but we're ready for a short cycle if it comes. So, what do you think? Do do you are you seeing people start to move into altcoins? Um, what what narratives are dominating? What what are you watching? So, here we go. So, this is this is this. So in the crypto cycle effectively crypto cycles follow the same crypto cycles follow the same kind of of money flow cycle and it's pretty similar I'm sure to how stocks uh flow effectively first money goes into the big Bitcoin the big stocks when people realize that this has gone up a lot they start looking for better returns but they also have a lot more confidence in the cycle and so the money starts flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum once the same thing happens to Ethereum the money goes from Ethereum to the large caple the large cap altcoins, Salana, etc., etc. And then they go to the alt season where every everything just goes crazy, right? That's that's basically what we call old season. Now, where are we in this cycle? Up until now, Bitcoin's been leading the institutional flows. But recently, actually, ETH started to start leading the institutional flows. And if you look at the ETF inflows in general, ETH has starting to get very, very, very big institutional inflows, right? And so what we realize is that where we are in this cycle is we're at the point in the cycle where the money is moving from Bitcoin from Bitcoin to ETH. And now maybe maybe we're starting to just slightly move into large caps. We've seen a little bit of a run in Salana, but that's not confirmed yet. And so again, this is again telling us that, you know, you need time you need time for ETH to outperform uh Bitcoin. And it's not a couple of days or a couple of weeks or a couple of months. Now, I want to show you something here. This is the chart of ETH to Bitcoin. It's called the ETH BTC chart. It compares the price of ETH to the price of Bitcoin. And what you can see here is that in the top of the cycles, which is this part over here, ETH actually tends to at a certain point outperform Bitcoin for a period of time. Now, how long is that period of time? Well, let's actually look at from the bottom to the absolute top. That was 168 days. 168 days, 6 months more or less, right? In the second cycle, let's again go and just look at the at the second cycle. So, let's look at the the period of time where ETH really started to outperform Bitcoin, right? And that is that period over there. That was 343 days, almost a year that ETH was outperforming Bitcoin. Now, let's look at where we are in this cycle, right? So, let's look at the the period where ETH has outperformed Bitcoin before the top. We're in 112 days. We're nowhere, right? It's it's very very very early in the cycle. This suggests that we could get anywhere between another 50 to 300 days or 150 days of the cycle. And that's kind of like where I'm where I'm pegging this. So, it is at very critical resistance now as you can see. So you can see like that was year one resistance, that was year two resistance, and now we've hit year three resistance. I guess what we have to look at is to see if it breaks out of here. If it breaks out of here, then the cycle's nowhere near the top because then it's going to go up for another 150 days. If it doesn't and it stays here for a while and then it rejects as per this line over here, then this the cycle top could be eight weeks away. So again, we're hoping for a longer cycle, but we're ready for either and we're watching the indicators super closely. I I think it's so important and one of the one of the things I love and thank you for showing these charts is that you have a framework, right? because there is a lot of um sort of you know dedicated folks who believe in crypto being an alternative system and an alternative to fiat you know and and are sort of very married to the narrative which I understand but it it's important to look at it from a framework so you can check where you are um which is wonderful for you to share some of these indicators do how so you mentioned the macro backdrop and the fact that we are we are this time around just beginning to lower interest rates. How much does that interest rate trajectory matter to what happens here? You know, if if the the market's starting to anticipate a lot of interest rate cuts, if that doesn't happen, if we see a revival of inflation, if for whatever reason the Fed is slower to respond, does that cause a problem for crypto prices? So, let's let's distinguish between small rate cuts and slower to respond because they're actually two different concepts. Small rate cuts is actually the best thing that we could pray for. Okay? Now, I say that as a crypto guy, right? And and and if you look at the charts here, there's a 94.4% chance of a single 25 basis point rate cut this week. And if you look at the probabilities, the probability is that we're going to get a 25 basis point rate cut, another 25 basis point rate cut, and then a third 25 basis point rate cut this year. A lot of crypto people are quite hopeful, and I use the like I use this uh um they they're very hopeful that we'll get a 50 basis point rate cut and they think that that will be good for the economy. Now, here's the catch. If you look at the previous 50 bips rate cuts, they were very very very bad for markets. Whereas if you look at the 25 basis point rate cuts, they were okay for markets. Yes. You ask yourself why? Very simple. If the Fed is in control and with the curve and not too far behind the curve, 25 basis points is enough. If the Fed feels like they're falling behind, they're going to need to do a double rate cut. Okay, now that's super interesting because the market celebrates a 25, but the minute they do a 50, which is actually good. It's more liquidity. It's it's a looser monetary policy. Markets start to drop more because that is the signal that the Fed has lost control of the markets and that the Fed is actually behind the curve. And so, as much as a lot of people are praying that this three 3.8% 8% chance of getting the 50 basis point rate cut is actually going to happen. And I mean it's big names Benjamin Cowan and even um if you look at it, it's even Standard Charted. Standard Charted are calling for a 50 basis point rate cut in September. I think they're wrong. I hope they're wrong. I know I should hope that they're right, but remember the signal that that sends to the markets. And so you got to be you got to watch out that the that the Fed always feels like it's in control of the economy and not like they're behind the boat because when they're behind the boat that's when you get sharp moves in markets. So all eyes on on P all ears on Pal this week because we want to know that he is in control and that he's not panicking specifically because they had that major jobs numbers revision down again. This time they had 911,000 jobs removed from the job numbers. We've got to listen to Pal's language. If Pal says something like, "This caught me by surprise. This caught us by surprise. We're working off the wrong data." That could send a shock wave into markets. And so, let's just hope that Pal is his composed self and that he gets up on that podium and he says, "It's all under control and we're only raising by we're only dropping by 25 basis points." And that's our best case scenario as crypto people, as market people. Yeah. then you get that ste steady increase in liquidity and you don't have the market sort of turning against PAL. Do you It sounds like there's a lot of conversation about um you know Bitcoin as a store of value. You're starting to see it decouple from the markets and not just trade as a risk asset. It sounds like you think it still trades as a risk asset. It's actually it's a very interesting it's a very interesting thing and the reason why it's very interesting is because we're at a part in the cycle where if you look at if you look at gold so this is the gold chart which is the store of value asset and the the gold is is at alltime highs and then you know if you look at the NASDAQ which is the risk asset which is a proxy for risk assets that's also at all time highs. So right now what you've got is you've got the market the responding to liquidity and in the liquidity cycle both gold and risk assets actually go up and so right now it's very tough to say whether Bitcoin will become a digital gold or ready is ready to become a digital gold or whether it's still priced as a risk asset because both risk assets and gold prices are pretty much on the up and up now. I think we're going to have to wait for the next global financial crisis. um just like the covid crisis or just like the 2008 crisis to understand the true test in the interim all markets are pretty much responding to liquidity and when all markets respond to liquidity basically the water the the the rising tides lifting all ships I mean it's also silver there's actually one very interesting um measure that you can look at here which is the gold I don't know if it's silver versus gold or gold versus silver but let's actually have a look at the chart over here when you take the silver versus gold or the gold versus silver chart it's actually a Very interesting chart. Let's just get that there. Uh let's do the other round. It's easier to look at it the other way around. So the gold versus silver ratio. Okay. Now what you can see about this chart is that this chart is basically on a kind of a on a trend line over here, right? And so usually when let me see if I can get get us a better chart here. Okay, that that kind of shows you a better chart. You can kind of see this is like on an upward trend line. And if you were to draw some kind of of line across the majority of a touch point, this is a very bad chart. But what you'll realize is that it's doing something like an inflection point. Okay, more or less. Now, you got to be a little bit more scientific about this chart, right? But what you realize is that it's following this upward trend. Now, this is gold versus silver, right? And so this shows when there's a change in risk appetite, right? So you want to see this thing, you want to see if this thing bounces now or goes below below this line. If it goes below this line, the market's in a big in a big risk appetite mood at the moment. And that's one of the things that we need to we need to have a look at all the indicators. Everything's running now because it's just it's just about it's M2 money supply going up. It's global liquidity going up. So everything's running. Gold, silver, tech stocks, Dow Jones, S&P, everything's running right now. Everyone's a genius right now. Let's wait and see what happens when there's a slight financial crisis and then we'll see what the store of value assets are and what the speculative assets are. Right. Which is why we talk a lot about diversification because it's so hard to tell right now how this is going to play out. What What are you hearing from your subscribers and retail? Are people starting to get enthusiastic about either getting in going further out the curve into altcoins? Can you see some of this happening or are people still a little bit cautious especially if they got burnt in prior cycles? So, we actually have a tool and the tool is called banter bubbles. And why I like this tool is because this tool shows you the performance of the coins on a one-year, one month, uh, uh, one. You can change your your your time level here. But the most important thing is that you can actually switch your base currency from US dollars to Bitcoin. And so now you can see how the coins are performing, how many of the coins are performing well relative to Bitcoin in the last month. Not many have have outperformed not in the last month not many are outperforming Bitcoin. The majority of the bubbles are red. Some bubbles are starting to be some bubbles are starting to outperform Bitcoin. And so what you realize that when they do outperform the outperformance is pretty big. And that's the beginning of an old season. When at the end of the old season every bubble here is green and the very green ones are very very green. And so we're in the beginning beginning of the flow cycle. By the way, if your if your viewers want to check this out, it's banterbubbles.com. And you can see crypto and you can see stocks. So there's the moves in the last one month on stocks. That's the today's moves. That's the one last oneweek moves. And I use this tool because I I can I can compare things to Bitcoin and and see how they're doing relative to Bitcoin. Yeah, that's I I I love the visual. So do you feel um that talk to me a little bit about your comment before about what was driving the action are these um digital asset treasury companies that are um you know being formed just in order to buy the currencies. Does that worry you? I mean it sounds a lot like spaxs and some of the things that have blown up in the past. Does it worry you that that's where the momentum is coming from? So if they were trading at a very high premium to net asset value then I would say yes probably towards the end of the cycle you'll get Wall Street really wanting into this crypto trade and then what you'll get is you'll get them trading at large premiums to net asset value and that for me will be another one of the top signals. Do you think that do you know compared to previous cycles we now as you mentioned have ETFs and uh you know a lot more institutional involvement. Does that uh provide stability and do you think that will make this cycle look different or does it in some way maybe amplify risk or you know create a situation where you have a lot more participants who might run to the door? Have you thought about that? So if you if you've been in crypto for a while the one thing about crypto is that the corrections are bloody scary, right? The the corrections are absolutely absolutely absolutely scary, right? In fact, look at this correction over here. This correction from top to bottom is 70%. And there's been lots of those in crypto. In fact, your average correction in a cycle and of of which you'll have six or seven of these of corrections are about 30 to 40% in Bitcoin or they were. But then in the next cycle, the corrections actually became a lot more tame, right? And instead of the 30 and 40% corrections, it was 25 and maybe 30% corrections. In this cycle, because Bitcoin's becoming a more institutionalized asset, the corrections have been I mean, for those of us that have been in crypto for a long time, they've been like like really chilled. Um, for people who are new to crypto, maybe they they still scary. The reason why that's happening is because crypto has become much more institutionalized. And in the old days, there was a very small liquidity pool. And when it used to turn negative, it was a very inexperienced investor pool, etc., etc. Remember that now the biggest asset in crypto is Bitcoin and that's being invested into by ETFs, by by funds, by retirement companies, etc., etc. They don't get scared off by corrections. And specifically when net net even after all the corrections, the chart is still moving aggressively up and to the right. And so, yes, we get a lot of corrections, but they're becoming because crypto is becoming much more institutionalized. The corrections are becoming less and less scary, specifically for people like us who've been here for a long time. So, it's probably a much, let's put it this way, it's still a little bit like the wild the wild west, but it's a much safer place than it used to be, which is going to be, I think, refreshing for people to hear. Um, Ran, this was fantastic. Thank you so much for sharing some of the um you know the indicators and the way you think about this and a way to you know put a lens of order on what can sometimes seem like the wild west. So so appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thank you so much. And guys, I mean if people are watching and they want to know more about crypto, we've got I've got two channels that they can actually go to. Um the one is a uh called crypto insider and that is a crypto uh beginner channel. Um if you want to if if you're more of a beginner and then obviously the main channel is for people that are very much in the game that's our main channel. It's called Cryptobant. You can you can if if people want to know more about about what's going on in the crypto markets either Cryptobant or Crypto Insider. That's where they can find us and you know um hopefully we can help them on the journey. Yeah. I I I I think that you know education and and making us aware I think is is really important at this juncture for this exciting area and there is a lot that's exciting going on. Um and again if you want to um figure out whether this is something you should have exposure to or if you want to dip your toe in how to go about doing that you can get a free portfolio review at wealthon.comfree. Ran thanks so much thank you so much. I look forward to doing this again. Yeah, absolutely. And thanks thanks to all of you for watching. We'll see you again next time. [Music]
Bitcoin to $250K? Ran Neuner: This Crypto Cycle Is Not Over Yet
Summary
Transcript
Bitcoin still has quite a way to go. Right now, Bitcoin is trading at $114,000. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin gets to 200 $250,000 before this cycle ends and we go into some kind of bare market. All cycles end with exuberance and we're nowhere near the exuberance. [Music] Throughout September, we're shining the spotlight on gold with a lineup of expert conversations, sharp market analysis, and practical investment guidance. To dive deeper, make sure to grab our complimentary gold investing report using the link in the description below. Hello and welcome to Wealthon. I'm Maggie Lake. Joining us today to talk about the outlook for crypto is Ran Nuner, founder of Cryptobanter. Hi Ren, it's great to have you on. Hey Megan, nice to be here. So before we jump in, if you are watching this and have questions about anything we discussed, go ahead and put them in the comments section and we'll do our best to address them in upcoming segments. If you do not own crypto and are trying to figure out if it's for you, you can get a free portfolio review from one of the adviserss in the Wealthy Network. Just click the link in the description or go to wealthon.comfree. So Ran, we've seen a huge runup in Bitcoin over the last year. Big change in the political environment here in the US around cryptocurrencies and digital assets, but I I'm hearing a lot of people sort of a little bit nervous, wondering if we're hitting a peak in the cycle, if we're going to see these sort of volatility and big drawdowns that have been characteristic of this sector in the past. So just curious what your outlook is. So I want to show you a chart. Okay. So essentially, if you know anything about crypto, what you'll know is that crypto actually moves in four-year cycles, right? And the four-year cycles kind of tend to work around the Bitcoin hing cycle. The Bitcoin hing cycle is effectively an event in in the Bitcoin software, which halves the number of Bitcoin that are emitted by the software. And generally we find that the cycles work in line with the hing cycles. And how do they work? Well, the the the Bitcoin h havinging happens and happens every four years. It happened in 2016. It happened again in 2020. It happened again in 2024. After the hinging, about 575 days after the harving, we get a top. And so, if you look at 2016 and you look at 575 days after uh the the hing, we topped in 2020. That was when the hing happened. And about 575 days later, we topped. And then the third time we had a hing in 2024. And if you basically get up to where it is right now in about 8 weeks, that would take us to what is supposed to be the cycle top. And so if you look just at the hing cycle, you would say, "Hold on a second. We're probably good to we're probably keen to we're probably close to a cycle top." And and that is possible. And we'll talk about that in a second. But also in the last 8 weeks, 10 weeks, 12 weeks of the cycle, the last part of the cycle as you can see here in 2016 and you can see the same thing happened in 2021 and the same thing starting to happen again is you get a very very very aggressive run in Bitcoin. More than that, you get a much more aggressive run in what they call the altcoins, which is all the coins that are not Bitcoin and smaller than Bitcoin. And generally in the last part of the cycle, what you get is you get this alt season where you get the altcoins outperforming Bitcoin by a lot, right? And so I'll show you I'll show you an interesting chart here. If you go to total three divided by BTCUSD, which shows you the total three chart relative to Bitcoin, um what you'll realize is that in the last part of the cycle, in the last part of the cycle, this actually really, really, really spikes. That's the period where the altcoins outperform Bitcoin. So if this cycle is the same as any of the other cycles, then we could be heading towards uh a top in 8 to 10 weeks. That's under the assumption that you use the h havinging cycle as your guide, which has been the most accurate guide to date. And you believe that this cycle will be the same as the previous two cycles. That's what the explain why people are nervous and sort of talking about this. Yeah. But there's another um uh uh thing that you need to look at when you're looking at this and that is I'm going to see if I can actually get it into this which is US int. Okay. So let me bring it bring in a second chart over here which is the US interest rates. So if you take Bitcoin and you overlay that against US interest rates, what you'll realize is that generally Bitcoin tops when after the rate cuts are complete and when the rate cuts start to go up again. Okay, but that's very different from this cycle. In this cycle, the rate cuts have just started. We haven't completed a rate cut cycle and started to go up again. Now again, you can see it over here. You can see it in in pretty much all the cycles. the rate cuts first complete and then when we start raising that is when Bitcoin actually tops. Right? So, you can see actually I'll I'll line up these charts because I think that will make it um let's let's line up these charts. I think that will make it and let's line up uh Hold on. Let's make that chart bigger and let's make that chart and that chart equal to each other. I think there you can kind of see it much much much more. Mhm. the the cycle usually the cycle usually tops when the Bitcoin when when when the interest rates are cuts are done and we start going back into a tightening cycle. So this cycle is very very very different right um so there's a lot of people are saying look we got to be re we're nearing a top etc etc when I look at the indicators right now they're not showing me that there is going to be a top and in fact if anything they're showing me that this cycle may actually carry on for another 10 or 12 months I'll show you another indicator here and this is a very simple indicator it's called the fear and greed indicator and the reason why the fear and greed indicator is so important is because if you know anything about markets what you'll know is that markets are not driven by fundamentals. They're driven by a sentiment, right? And and markets oscillate between fear and greed. And so if you go to the fear and greed indicator and what you'll realize is that markets go from extreme fear to extreme greed. And that's basically what a market cycle is. Now generally when we top and by the way this here was was a top. The markets tend to stay at fear and greed for quite a long period of time. At extreme greed for quite a long period of time. That's a very important part of the cycle. The reason why it's such an important part of the cycle is because markets usually end with what they call blowoff tops. What is a blowoff top? A blowoff top is when the more unsophisticated investor as we call them the retail investor comes into a market and gets you know comes into market thinks they make money. as they make money, they bring more and more money into the market until eventually they get flashed out and the the whales, which are the more experienced investors, actually land up winning. Now, in order to get the retail investor to come into the market, you need to have a sustained period of extreme greed, you need to have a sustained period where it feels like anyone can come here and make money and that is when markets generally top. Now, if I look at the fear and greed index today, the fear and greed index is still neutral. And generally it takes it takes about the fear and greed index being up at about there for about 8 weeks before markets actually top. So if this cycle is about to end in 8 weeks, well where is the exuberance? Where is the fear? I mean where is the greed? Where are the pe where are where are the retail investors? The retail investors are nowhere to be found. They're nowhere they nowhere near they nowhere near this market yet, right? And so that's another indicator that kind of shows me that there's there's not this retail exuberance. We haven't started that last part of the cycle yet. And so I highly, highly, highly doubt that this cycle is about to end. If anything, I put my money on a cycle that is another year, 10 months to a year long. There's one other factor towards it and that is the Jerome Pal factor. Um, what is the Jerome Pal factor? Well, we know that Trump isn't really mad about PAL and that there's some kind of friction between Trump and Pal at the moment. tomorrow or this week, we're going to get the first rate cuts of the Trump presidency. And I think sometime next year in May, Trump will appoint a new Fed chair, which will be slightly more um on Trump's side and slightly more loosening on the economy. And I think that, you know, we should we should at least be able to run until then. As part of our gold interview series this month, Trey Reich will be hosting a gold investing webinar on Wednesday, September 17th. Send your questions for Trey about gold or gold's miners to info@wealthon.com. And Wealthon together with SCP Resource Finance will be hosting a global silver conference this October in Toronto. Eric Sprat will be delivering the keynote and it promises to be a landmark gathering for silver investors. You can find out more in the details in the description below. So that's so interesting. So the having aside that would suggest that we're nearing a top. You're not seeing all the other um indicators that would confirm that to you. We're not seeing alt season. We're not seeing exuberance. Um we're getting we're we're at a different point in the interest rate cycle. What do you what if there's no retail in who's driven the gains up to where they are now? Okay, so this is what they call the CBBI indicator. Now, the reason why I love this indicator so much is that this indicator is a combination of nine other indicators, right? And this indicator shows when we're near a cycle top. So, you can kind of see that in this indicator over here went up here and that's where we got the cycle top over here, right? And here we got a cycle top over here. The reason why I use this indicator is because it takes nine other indicators. So, you don't have to actually go through the individual indicators. It's not showing me at all that that there's any kind of exuberance. In fact, we usually top when this thing's at about 95 or 100 and it usually stays there for quite a while. As you can see over here, we're on 76 and it's it's nowhere near topping. So, you asked, well, if retail is not here, well, then who's driving this market? So, this market currently is divided into two parts. The first part is Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Salana. And then there's the rest of the market. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Salana are effectively the largest tokens out there. Not exactly, but let's just say more or less the largest tokens out there. Bitcoin is the biggest. Uh ETH is the second biggest and Salana is probably the third or fourth biggest. So, who's driving this? Well, it's this thing called digital asset treasury companies. So, you've got the ETFs. You've got ETFs on Bitcoin and ETH, and they are driving the Bitcoin and ETH flows. And then you've got this thing called the digital asset treasury company. Now, let me break it down for you. All a digital asset treasury company is is a company that's listed on the NASDAQ that allow that that raises money for the sole purpose of buying the asset and staking the asset, right? That's what a digital asset treasury company is. And what you the first digital asset treasury company was Micro Strategy. Your viewers may be familiar with Michael Sailor. And what he did was he found a way to tap into trades to buy crypto assets. That was the big the big uh the big revolution is he managed to tap Wall Street debt and equity markets in Wall Street to buy crypto assets. He was a he is a financial engineering genius. He did this by approaching fixed income investors and creating convertible instruments which gave them equity upside. Um he did this through through uh convertible convertible pre shares and stuff like that. When people saw this playbook, they said, "Okay, well, if Michael Sailor is doing this in Bitcoin, we'll do it in ETH. We'll do it in Salana." And so now you've got a lot of these digital asset treasury companies which are raising money from Tradfi and investing that money into crypto assets. Most notably, Tom Lee, who's a big CNBC contributor, he um he raised a big fund, a big company called BMNR, Bitman. Sorry, let me just get let me get you guys a chart so you can actually see it. B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V B V BMnR bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit B bit bit mine immersion uh technologies and you can see let me actually break that down so you can actually see it better B MNR and you can see what the share performance has done right it's gone it went all the way up and it's it's now continuing the climb up and there's a lot of these there's another one called SBET or Sharink which is Joseph Luben who's the co-founder of Ethereum and again this one went all the way up and is starting to climb up here These digital asset treasury companies are bringing trades into crypto assets and right now they are what is driving the market and that's why if you look at Bitcoin and ETH and Sana they've pretty much outperformed all the other all the other altcoins. That's so interesting and and thank you for underscoring that because I think Tom Lee, you mentioned his name, he's one of the people, public figures if you will, that comes on and has some really high forecasts and targets for Bitcoin where the price may go. So, it's interesting if he's running these funds that are buying it. Um, I think that's good to keep in mind. First of all, do you what what where do you see if if we are not at the cycle peak, do you have price targets for Bitcoin? Where do you see this going given the gains we've already seen this year? So, let's go back to the Tom D discussion because actually Tom D has been a longtime contributor to CNBC and he's become quite a credible voice in the industry. Um, but I mean, how credible is he if he's at the head of one of these companies and effectively he's talking his own book? Every time he goes out there and he says, "Well, ETH's going to outperform." You got to keep asking yourself, well, is ETH going to outperform or is Tom Lee actually uh um is to is Tom Lee actually talking his own book? Exactly. Which which I guess is natural. I mean, if you're the chairman of a company that buys Ethereum, I guess you got to be very bullish cryptocurrencies and very bullish the underlying asset, which which is Ethereum. Um I think your next question was well when do I see the cycle ending? Was that the question? Where where do you see it going? What's your outlook your price outlook if you think that we are not near a top or a peak? So it's very difficult to to talk uh a specific price. Um I would imagine that Bitcoin still has quite a way to go. Right now Bitcoin is trading at $114,000. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin gets to $200 $250,000 before this cycle ends and we go into some kind of bare market. Uh if that if that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if ETH goes to $15,000. Uh Salana maybe to $1,000. Um just to give you an idea, ETH is current trading at $4,520. Salana is trading at $233. Wow. So, I think there's quite a lot of upside in in in the cycle. I know it sounds crazy to people that aren't in crypto, but I'm going to zoom out in this chart and just show you what can happen in a crypto move. Here is where Salana went up from $22 all the way up to um $264 in a matter of 105 days, 3 months at the end of the previous cycle. So, you know, like I know to normal investors this thing this seems crazy, but you need to have one cycle in crypto to realize that uh these things can happen. And every time that I've faded it, I've I've always eaten my words. They tend to have parabolic moves. Um, you know, when you're when you're talking about this, it sort of reminds me, I don't know if you if you see any correlation, but it reminds me when people talk about commodity super cycles, right? There are times when commodities can move really, really rapidly. It sounds similar to that. Yeah. Now take a commodity that because these are digital commodities, most of them. Um, and now take a digital commodity that is truly truly truly scarce with a very very low market cap. And now kind of imagine imagine you would have got into gold when gold had a market cap of a trillion dollars or when gold's now sitting at 15 or$20 trillion or whatever the number is. That's where you're at. And so the moves can be quite aggressive. Look, the Bitcoin moves are getting less and less aggressive with every cycle. So I'll show you I'll show you uh the difference between the 2017 and the 2021 cycle. So if you take bottom to top in 2017 in 2017, so we'll take we'll take that as the bottom and we'll go all the way up to top in 2017. That was a 14,000% move give or take. If you go bottom to top in 2021, which I mean you can probably say that's the bottom. That was a 2,000% return, right? And if you look at at this cycle, which is from there to there, we're only on 660% return, right? So you can see that the returns are getting marginally smaller. Uh but there's probably more returns to be made in the smaller assets and that's what happens in the last part of the cycle, the last 8 n 10 weeks of the cycle. Now again, I do think the cycle structurally is different, but I'm also cognizant that it may be the same as all the other cycles. Effectively what I'm doing is I'm watching this cycle and I'm looking for the the indicators of fear and exuberance. And if I find those indicators of fear and exuberance, then I'm going to succumb to the fact that this cycle may be the same as all the other cycles. Many traders have been wrecked by thinking that this time is going to be different. And it's very important that you don't fall into that trap. So, as much as we want it to, as much as our bias is, because we're all crypto holders, and to be honest, I don't believe that we've got enough return this cycle, but you know what? I've got to be open to the fact that the cycle doesn't care whether or not I believe that I've got my returns for the cycle and that the cycle will end when the cycle ends. And I've got to be I've got to look out for the signs of euphoria and and greed and and everything else that's associated with it. The one thing I can say with conviction is that every single cycle ends with euphoria. You can look at it here. Let me let me get get us another index over here. Crypto fear and greed index. Here we go. Hopefully it'll hopefully it'll calculate. So all cycles end with exuberance and we're nowhere near the exuberance as you can see. In fact, we're only halfway up the only halfway up the chart. So, for now, all the indicators are safe. Uh, going forward, well, let's wait and see. Um, we're hoping for a long cycle, but we're ready for a short cycle if it comes. So, what do you think? Do do you are you seeing people start to move into altcoins? Um, what what narratives are dominating? What what are you watching? So, here we go. So, this is this is this. So in the crypto cycle effectively crypto cycles follow the same crypto cycles follow the same kind of of money flow cycle and it's pretty similar I'm sure to how stocks uh flow effectively first money goes into the big Bitcoin the big stocks when people realize that this has gone up a lot they start looking for better returns but they also have a lot more confidence in the cycle and so the money starts flowing from Bitcoin to Ethereum once the same thing happens to Ethereum the money goes from Ethereum to the large caple the large cap altcoins, Salana, etc., etc. And then they go to the alt season where every everything just goes crazy, right? That's that's basically what we call old season. Now, where are we in this cycle? Up until now, Bitcoin's been leading the institutional flows. But recently, actually, ETH started to start leading the institutional flows. And if you look at the ETF inflows in general, ETH has starting to get very, very, very big institutional inflows, right? And so what we realize is that where we are in this cycle is we're at the point in the cycle where the money is moving from Bitcoin from Bitcoin to ETH. And now maybe maybe we're starting to just slightly move into large caps. We've seen a little bit of a run in Salana, but that's not confirmed yet. And so again, this is again telling us that, you know, you need time you need time for ETH to outperform uh Bitcoin. And it's not a couple of days or a couple of weeks or a couple of months. Now, I want to show you something here. This is the chart of ETH to Bitcoin. It's called the ETH BTC chart. It compares the price of ETH to the price of Bitcoin. And what you can see here is that in the top of the cycles, which is this part over here, ETH actually tends to at a certain point outperform Bitcoin for a period of time. Now, how long is that period of time? Well, let's actually look at from the bottom to the absolute top. That was 168 days. 168 days, 6 months more or less, right? In the second cycle, let's again go and just look at the at the second cycle. So, let's look at the the period of time where ETH really started to outperform Bitcoin, right? And that is that period over there. That was 343 days, almost a year that ETH was outperforming Bitcoin. Now, let's look at where we are in this cycle, right? So, let's look at the the period where ETH has outperformed Bitcoin before the top. We're in 112 days. We're nowhere, right? It's it's very very very early in the cycle. This suggests that we could get anywhere between another 50 to 300 days or 150 days of the cycle. And that's kind of like where I'm where I'm pegging this. So, it is at very critical resistance now as you can see. So you can see like that was year one resistance, that was year two resistance, and now we've hit year three resistance. I guess what we have to look at is to see if it breaks out of here. If it breaks out of here, then the cycle's nowhere near the top because then it's going to go up for another 150 days. If it doesn't and it stays here for a while and then it rejects as per this line over here, then this the cycle top could be eight weeks away. So again, we're hoping for a longer cycle, but we're ready for either and we're watching the indicators super closely. I I think it's so important and one of the one of the things I love and thank you for showing these charts is that you have a framework, right? because there is a lot of um sort of you know dedicated folks who believe in crypto being an alternative system and an alternative to fiat you know and and are sort of very married to the narrative which I understand but it it's important to look at it from a framework so you can check where you are um which is wonderful for you to share some of these indicators do how so you mentioned the macro backdrop and the fact that we are we are this time around just beginning to lower interest rates. How much does that interest rate trajectory matter to what happens here? You know, if if the the market's starting to anticipate a lot of interest rate cuts, if that doesn't happen, if we see a revival of inflation, if for whatever reason the Fed is slower to respond, does that cause a problem for crypto prices? So, let's let's distinguish between small rate cuts and slower to respond because they're actually two different concepts. Small rate cuts is actually the best thing that we could pray for. Okay? Now, I say that as a crypto guy, right? And and and if you look at the charts here, there's a 94.4% chance of a single 25 basis point rate cut this week. And if you look at the probabilities, the probability is that we're going to get a 25 basis point rate cut, another 25 basis point rate cut, and then a third 25 basis point rate cut this year. A lot of crypto people are quite hopeful, and I use the like I use this uh um they they're very hopeful that we'll get a 50 basis point rate cut and they think that that will be good for the economy. Now, here's the catch. If you look at the previous 50 bips rate cuts, they were very very very bad for markets. Whereas if you look at the 25 basis point rate cuts, they were okay for markets. Yes. You ask yourself why? Very simple. If the Fed is in control and with the curve and not too far behind the curve, 25 basis points is enough. If the Fed feels like they're falling behind, they're going to need to do a double rate cut. Okay, now that's super interesting because the market celebrates a 25, but the minute they do a 50, which is actually good. It's more liquidity. It's it's a looser monetary policy. Markets start to drop more because that is the signal that the Fed has lost control of the markets and that the Fed is actually behind the curve. And so, as much as a lot of people are praying that this three 3.8% 8% chance of getting the 50 basis point rate cut is actually going to happen. And I mean it's big names Benjamin Cowan and even um if you look at it, it's even Standard Charted. Standard Charted are calling for a 50 basis point rate cut in September. I think they're wrong. I hope they're wrong. I know I should hope that they're right, but remember the signal that that sends to the markets. And so you got to be you got to watch out that the that the Fed always feels like it's in control of the economy and not like they're behind the boat because when they're behind the boat that's when you get sharp moves in markets. So all eyes on on P all ears on Pal this week because we want to know that he is in control and that he's not panicking specifically because they had that major jobs numbers revision down again. This time they had 911,000 jobs removed from the job numbers. We've got to listen to Pal's language. If Pal says something like, "This caught me by surprise. This caught us by surprise. We're working off the wrong data." That could send a shock wave into markets. And so, let's just hope that Pal is his composed self and that he gets up on that podium and he says, "It's all under control and we're only raising by we're only dropping by 25 basis points." And that's our best case scenario as crypto people, as market people. Yeah. then you get that ste steady increase in liquidity and you don't have the market sort of turning against PAL. Do you It sounds like there's a lot of conversation about um you know Bitcoin as a store of value. You're starting to see it decouple from the markets and not just trade as a risk asset. It sounds like you think it still trades as a risk asset. It's actually it's a very interesting it's a very interesting thing and the reason why it's very interesting is because we're at a part in the cycle where if you look at if you look at gold so this is the gold chart which is the store of value asset and the the gold is is at alltime highs and then you know if you look at the NASDAQ which is the risk asset which is a proxy for risk assets that's also at all time highs. So right now what you've got is you've got the market the responding to liquidity and in the liquidity cycle both gold and risk assets actually go up and so right now it's very tough to say whether Bitcoin will become a digital gold or ready is ready to become a digital gold or whether it's still priced as a risk asset because both risk assets and gold prices are pretty much on the up and up now. I think we're going to have to wait for the next global financial crisis. um just like the covid crisis or just like the 2008 crisis to understand the true test in the interim all markets are pretty much responding to liquidity and when all markets respond to liquidity basically the water the the the rising tides lifting all ships I mean it's also silver there's actually one very interesting um measure that you can look at here which is the gold I don't know if it's silver versus gold or gold versus silver but let's actually have a look at the chart over here when you take the silver versus gold or the gold versus silver chart it's actually a Very interesting chart. Let's just get that there. Uh let's do the other round. It's easier to look at it the other way around. So the gold versus silver ratio. Okay. Now what you can see about this chart is that this chart is basically on a kind of a on a trend line over here, right? And so usually when let me see if I can get get us a better chart here. Okay, that that kind of shows you a better chart. You can kind of see this is like on an upward trend line. And if you were to draw some kind of of line across the majority of a touch point, this is a very bad chart. But what you'll realize is that it's doing something like an inflection point. Okay, more or less. Now, you got to be a little bit more scientific about this chart, right? But what you realize is that it's following this upward trend. Now, this is gold versus silver, right? And so this shows when there's a change in risk appetite, right? So you want to see this thing, you want to see if this thing bounces now or goes below below this line. If it goes below this line, the market's in a big in a big risk appetite mood at the moment. And that's one of the things that we need to we need to have a look at all the indicators. Everything's running now because it's just it's just about it's M2 money supply going up. It's global liquidity going up. So everything's running. Gold, silver, tech stocks, Dow Jones, S&P, everything's running right now. Everyone's a genius right now. Let's wait and see what happens when there's a slight financial crisis and then we'll see what the store of value assets are and what the speculative assets are. Right. Which is why we talk a lot about diversification because it's so hard to tell right now how this is going to play out. What What are you hearing from your subscribers and retail? Are people starting to get enthusiastic about either getting in going further out the curve into altcoins? Can you see some of this happening or are people still a little bit cautious especially if they got burnt in prior cycles? So, we actually have a tool and the tool is called banter bubbles. And why I like this tool is because this tool shows you the performance of the coins on a one-year, one month, uh, uh, one. You can change your your your time level here. But the most important thing is that you can actually switch your base currency from US dollars to Bitcoin. And so now you can see how the coins are performing, how many of the coins are performing well relative to Bitcoin in the last month. Not many have have outperformed not in the last month not many are outperforming Bitcoin. The majority of the bubbles are red. Some bubbles are starting to be some bubbles are starting to outperform Bitcoin. And so what you realize that when they do outperform the outperformance is pretty big. And that's the beginning of an old season. When at the end of the old season every bubble here is green and the very green ones are very very green. And so we're in the beginning beginning of the flow cycle. By the way, if your if your viewers want to check this out, it's banterbubbles.com. And you can see crypto and you can see stocks. So there's the moves in the last one month on stocks. That's the today's moves. That's the one last oneweek moves. And I use this tool because I I can I can compare things to Bitcoin and and see how they're doing relative to Bitcoin. Yeah, that's I I I love the visual. So do you feel um that talk to me a little bit about your comment before about what was driving the action are these um digital asset treasury companies that are um you know being formed just in order to buy the currencies. Does that worry you? I mean it sounds a lot like spaxs and some of the things that have blown up in the past. Does it worry you that that's where the momentum is coming from? So if they were trading at a very high premium to net asset value then I would say yes probably towards the end of the cycle you'll get Wall Street really wanting into this crypto trade and then what you'll get is you'll get them trading at large premiums to net asset value and that for me will be another one of the top signals. Do you think that do you know compared to previous cycles we now as you mentioned have ETFs and uh you know a lot more institutional involvement. Does that uh provide stability and do you think that will make this cycle look different or does it in some way maybe amplify risk or you know create a situation where you have a lot more participants who might run to the door? Have you thought about that? So if you if you've been in crypto for a while the one thing about crypto is that the corrections are bloody scary, right? The the corrections are absolutely absolutely absolutely scary, right? In fact, look at this correction over here. This correction from top to bottom is 70%. And there's been lots of those in crypto. In fact, your average correction in a cycle and of of which you'll have six or seven of these of corrections are about 30 to 40% in Bitcoin or they were. But then in the next cycle, the corrections actually became a lot more tame, right? And instead of the 30 and 40% corrections, it was 25 and maybe 30% corrections. In this cycle, because Bitcoin's becoming a more institutionalized asset, the corrections have been I mean, for those of us that have been in crypto for a long time, they've been like like really chilled. Um, for people who are new to crypto, maybe they they still scary. The reason why that's happening is because crypto has become much more institutionalized. And in the old days, there was a very small liquidity pool. And when it used to turn negative, it was a very inexperienced investor pool, etc., etc. Remember that now the biggest asset in crypto is Bitcoin and that's being invested into by ETFs, by by funds, by retirement companies, etc., etc. They don't get scared off by corrections. And specifically when net net even after all the corrections, the chart is still moving aggressively up and to the right. And so, yes, we get a lot of corrections, but they're becoming because crypto is becoming much more institutionalized. The corrections are becoming less and less scary, specifically for people like us who've been here for a long time. So, it's probably a much, let's put it this way, it's still a little bit like the wild the wild west, but it's a much safer place than it used to be, which is going to be, I think, refreshing for people to hear. Um, Ran, this was fantastic. Thank you so much for sharing some of the um you know the indicators and the way you think about this and a way to you know put a lens of order on what can sometimes seem like the wild west. So so appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thank you so much. And guys, I mean if people are watching and they want to know more about crypto, we've got I've got two channels that they can actually go to. Um the one is a uh called crypto insider and that is a crypto uh beginner channel. Um if you want to if if you're more of a beginner and then obviously the main channel is for people that are very much in the game that's our main channel. It's called Cryptobant. You can you can if if people want to know more about about what's going on in the crypto markets either Cryptobant or Crypto Insider. That's where they can find us and you know um hopefully we can help them on the journey. Yeah. I I I I think that you know education and and making us aware I think is is really important at this juncture for this exciting area and there is a lot that's exciting going on. Um and again if you want to um figure out whether this is something you should have exposure to or if you want to dip your toe in how to go about doing that you can get a free portfolio review at wealthon.comfree. Ran thanks so much thank you so much. I look forward to doing this again. Yeah, absolutely. And thanks thanks to all of you for watching. We'll see you again next time. [Music]