Bitcoin’s Next ‘Takeoff’ Revealed, Here’s When | CoinMarketCap’s Alice Liu
Summary
Market Outlook: Sentiment hit extreme fear but showed a V-shaped recovery, with deleveraging largely cleared and expectations for potential renewed strength into early 2025 pending liquidity and Fed decisions.
Bitcoin and ETFs (BTC): US BTC ETFs saw multi-billion outflows in November; the guest frames BTC performance within macro and halving-cycle dynamics and notes potential for a rebound if liquidity improves.
Stablecoins (USDT): Stablecoins are growing as core DeFi infrastructure and dry powder; yield-bearing stablecoins are rising, while Tether’s stability score downgrade highlights reserve and liquidity risks.
AI Bubble and Tech Link (NVDA): BTC showed strong correlation to Nvidia’s earnings moves amid thin liquidity, with the guest warning that an AI bubble deflating could pressure all risk assets, including crypto.
Decentralized Exchanges: Perpetual DEXs are highlighted as a leading narrative and potential 2026 growth driver, supported by real revenue, trading volumes, and open interest on platforms like Hyperliquid.
Crypto ETFs and L1s: Discussion spans BTC/ETH ETFs and mentions of SOL/XRP, noting limited price impact without material AUM inflows and competitive pressures on Ethereum from other L1s.
Crypto Indexing: The CMC 20 tokenized index tracks the top 20 crypto assets (ex-stablecoins/wrapped), is market-cap weighted with monthly rebalancing, and is designed to capture altseason upside transparently on-chain.
Quantum Computing Risk: The guest acknowledges theoretical risks to elliptic-curve cryptography but expects long timelines and anticipates protocol upgrades (e.g., PQC) to mitigate, not a near-term threat priced by markets.
Transcript
Right now the number one topic in the market is is this a bare market? Are we still going to have a bounce back? When is the Q4 going to deliver some great result for us? It's not impossible to have another all-time high. In FE the people sitting at the table, they are different now. [music] So their behavior impact what we will say in crypto. AI bubble does become a major catalyst of traditional finance market losing confidence that no risk on asset would outperform and BTC would be included as well. >> Bitcoin wipes out more than $400 billion in a week. Uh this past month has seen the biggest losses in crypto in terms of market cap in history. Uh, Bitcoin is now firmly below its year-to- date uh, gain territory and uh, we're still well below $100,000. Even as we're speaking today on the 26th of November, Bitcoin's up about over 3%. But it's still underperforming stocks. We're talking to somebody who now who follows data uh, very very closely. She is Alice Leu, head of research at Coin Market Cap. Welcome to the show, Alice. Good to see you. >> Great to see you. Thanks for having me here. Coin Market Cap is perhaps one of the uh most definitive resources for data and analytics and uh live prices for the entire crypto space. Everyone uses it every day. So, I'm very happy to have you on the show. Tell us about the key trends that you're paying attention to right now that are moving crypto markets. In other words, why have we seen such a huge outflow of capital outside of crypto or out of crypto rather in the last four to six weeks? >> Yeah, sure. Starting from last week, last week was the darkest part of the fair and greed sentiment in the market. We did have the CMC crypto fair and greed index hit as low as 10. Right now, as we speak, it did bounce back to 15. Um, but 10 was the lowest we've ever recorded since we launched the index in 2023. So, right now, the number one topic in the market is, is this a bare market? Are we still going to have a bounce back? when is the Q4 going to deliver some great result for us. So one interesting thing which is the CMC cryptof fairing grade index it never stays below 15 for more than 7 days and this time around it is the same pattern. So we did say yesterday the index level bounced back and the market seems to be having a bit of a V-shaped recovery in terms of the sentiment alone. And as we speak, David, I'm so happy because we finally have BTC uh rushing above 90K. Right now, it's $9,052. Uh for us at the moment, we've been waiting for this for a long time now. That was last week, but you were right. For the past four to six weeks, the market has been seeing a exceptional amount of outflows. Uh US BTC ETFs alone had about 4 billion USD outflows in November. And that has been the highest has ever recorded on a monthly basis. And also for us as an industry, I generally look at the trend in three layers. Number one, macro market is set the direction of where we're going. Number two, the flows talking about ETF flows, talking about institutional flows, micro strategy, uh redeems, etc. that sets the speed of going to that direction. And the last part, I look at onchain data. onching data will then tell me how sustainable that speed is. And for the past four to six weeks, because of the deleveraging in the market, what we saw post 11th of October, the massive liquidation in the market, it seems to have then experienced a great outflows, the market has sort of cleared up the leverage at the moment. A lot of the capitals are on the sideline waiting and BTC dominance dropped back to 58%. And I would say based on the most recent varian greed and the market cap and trading volume, I can see that the sentiment has calmed down a little bit and we are ready uh for another takeoff if if the market is set up, right? >> Let me just open up coin market cap. So this is the uh homepage. So maybe walk us through what people should be doing and going to first uh when evaluating the current sentiment in the market. So we talked about fear and greed. The altcoin season indicator is pretty interesting. Right now it's firmly still in Bitcoin season. Uh and as you know most alcoins got wiped out uh over the last month. Um and then average crypto RSI. How do we use this page Alice? >> Yeah sure. So you're right. I'll start with fair and great but also look at the um if you go on to the second tab which says dashboard and under the markets tab you will have market overview. The first one if you click on it it brings all the details here. This is how I start my money. I look at the fair and grid first to monitor the market sentiment and I look at the total market cap and volume. Volume is very important right now. What we are seeing is a slight drawing up in liquidity and I would pay attention to that. And you're right. And then look at the alcoin season, but click into the chart because that is interesting to observe. Yes, I know it's been very bad for the past 90 days, but if you look at some of the pockets nuggets in crypto market is still delivering great results. what you're saying the alt says and how we measure it is by tracking the top 100 largest coins on CMC and their performance over the past 90 days. If 75% of them are outperforming BTC, then we are firmly in an alcoin season. But right now, we are in BTC season. Even in a market like this, we still have amazing growth such as Aster, such as uh if you scroll down a little bit, you'll see like some of the names delivering great results uh for the for the past 90 years. Yes. Uh every single one of this has a narrative behind it. The cash that ts into the privacy narrative that we were saying. It had amazing up run for the past few months. Um and um tagging to privacy it's lash Monero um it is a few that it is stash a few other tokens as well and aar it leads the per daxis um narrative in the market but yes you saw all this red um hopefully we will have another comeback of the market very soon. If you Yeah, this is 55% 70 80% loss. When you look at the reds and then when you look at the greens, so the altcoins that gain versus the altcoins that got wiped out. I know every single altcoin has its own narrative, especially the ones that gained. But is there a constant pattern here like you know coins that did well in a Bitcoin season versus coins that did not do well >> for the previous market cycles? Yes. But right now it's really hard to predict. What we generally see is a narrative trending in the market for no more than 14 days. 14 days is the amount of attention you would get in crypto as a trending narrative. And privacy has been quite an exception for the past few weeks mostly because the market has been starved of new narratives, topics to grab onto. So this together with X42 payment theme seems to be a very big uh trend. But also at the same time, what I'm really looking at right now is the great buying opportunity for some quality projects. There are a few things I personally think will be great uh growth drivers in 2026 when the market comes back. Number one is still going to be perexis. So we are still talking about aar, talking about hyperlid etc. Um a few other perexes as well. So what we're really seeing is the fundamental use cases of them and the revenue, trade volume, open interest that these these um platforms generate. So you can now use CMC AI below the price chart. You click on the analysis there. It actually gives you the live AI uh like generated analysis of why uh the token is having the price reaction it is. >> Why is Astro's price down today? >> Huh? It is very accurate in a sense that it's taking uh data from not just the trade volume, price volume, but also from onchain stats as well as the the RSS fates of the news and the community comments. >> The global financial system is rapidly moving onchain. And today's sponsor, Cool Wallet, is a name worth watching. Cool Wallet builds next generation cold wallets designed for a world where real world assets, payments, and savings live on the blockchain. Their flagship credit card- sized hardware wallets combine CCAL6 plus secure element protection, mobile first usability, and a unique 2 plus one factor authentication system that requires your phone, your biometric ID, and your card to approve every single transaction. So, here's a cool wallet go card. It's an easy to use onthe-go card- sized hard drive that stores your private keys and literally fits inside your wallet or purse. Activating the card is simple. It takes about 30 seconds. 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To learn more, go to the link down below or scan the QR code here. And if you do use my code, you'll get a 5% off on your first purchase. I'd also encourage you to check out my interview with Cool Wallet CEO Michael O for more details on the product and why we need self- custody today. And he also explains in great detail how the security functions work. Link also down below. Can I go to volume and see positioning? uh sort of like a CME um commitment of traders report traders long positions or short positions are there are there any such thing >> uh we have the liquidation uh map but it's in a separate tab so it would be yeah not directly on the coin detail page because this is still very much you know the spot focused the page for for you um but then we would have the liquidation details later as well >> well right now uh how would you evaluate positioning our are our traders, you know, most of the volume is it selling or buying? Well, I know in the last 30 minutes it's buying, but overall in the last week or so. Uh uh positioning and sentiment, how would you evaluate it? Still still in fear territory right now? >> Um the data is telling me 15, which is still in extreme fair, but I saw the Vshape come back already. And based on the long short ratio, let me check now. I know you said don't check the last 30 minutes, but we had some material change for the last 30 minutes. >> No, no, 30 minutes is fine. >> 29 minutes is also fine. Whatever time period you want, whatever is important for you. Uh we want to know what's pumping right now and what's what's uh or what's dumping as well. And um >> Sure. So as we speak for the past hour or so, that's the data I have. uh the long short position seems to be uh yeah we are 6 57% bullish uh longing on the market. >> Tell us about some of the macro variables or trends that you're following. You mentioned in the beginning that right now it's very much a macrodriven narrative for crypto and uh a lot of people would agree and a lot of people wonder well even though stocks are still in a bull market technically why are bitcoin and other cryptos not outperforming stocks. >> Yeah exactly. So this is what I love about your audience face I think because people have such deep knowledge in uh finance and just in in global markets in general. So we do save the dispersion of you know what is happening in crypto versus what is happening in traditional markets. So from my point of view there are two unique idiosyncratic risks to crypto. Number one is liquidity because December is the people sitting at the table they are different. Now what I mean by that is the amount of holders uh from the institutional side ETF holders uh and digital asset treasury holders they have now uh account for a large proportion of the uh volume and of the uh holdings in crypto. So their behavior impacts what we will say in crypto and what we are saying is December is generally the time for them to rebalance their portfolios, right? We would have some tax related um trading activities as well. So that is one of the reason why we saw the large pull out of the capital in the market for the few past few weeks as well and December is generally very thin liquidity for crypto and that just enhanced that character uh by now having tried five sitting at the table. Um so number two of crypto native risk here um is the hing cycle. I know people have been talking about it. Four year having cycle it normally happens around uh past like the 560 64 days to 594 days around that range post the hopping and then when it when it takes uh us to this market cycle it's coming right now about November time December time. So for some people who believe in having cycle they would be doing their trade based on this position as well. So those are the two unique characters of crypto uh for for for what it is. >> Well, let's take a look at uh the Bitcoin price chart. So it it it seems to be following what it's done in the past, meaning we have a top, a double top, and then a correction, stabilize around the previous bull cycle top, and then grind up higher in a few years. It's it's a very predictable cycle when you look at how it's performed in the past. However, some people make an argument that the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is pretty much over. Um, it's not really following uh what it's done before. Although, if you look at it, uh, it is it kind of still is. Maybe I think people don't want to admit that maybe this was the cycle top. So, if you if you were to follow the 4-year cycle, I think you you could make the argument that we're not coming back to above $120,000 for Bitcoin. But anyway, I'll let you do your analysis and perhaps what you've heard from your associates as well. >> Yeah. So, what we are generally looking at the moment is actually relying on traditional finance to give us some uh macro indication in a sense that uh what we are saying because of the government shutdown for the past uh well it's for over a month and we are missing a quite a few key economic data. So that's why investors are parking their capital on the side and as December comes in and we have more data transparency there um we generally anticipate January time maybe around January Feb Fed would make a decision and give us potentially additional injection of liquidity in the market as well as you know interest rate decisions on that and um February is going to be the time where we are likely to see a comeback of the market again. Okay, >> it's not impossible to have another alltime high in Feb. >> All right. Um, let's talk about uh the the ETFs. Now, the ETFs were a huge boost for Bitcoin uh but not so much for Ethereum and uh now there's speculation as to which neck which altcoin could be getting an ETF next. How significant are ETF inflows actually for the underlying token? >> Yeah, so there are two things. Number one is the approval of the ETF themselves. Number two is the actual AUM flying in. Um so number one, we recently had Solana, XRP, etc. ETF approved. Um but we didn't really see the price reacting to this and it was very short-lived optimism and the one of the main reason is that there is just not enough money coming in and plus these tokens have been having quite significant market cap already. So for them to have a meaningful movement is going to require a lot of capital and that's the same case when it comes to Ethereum as well. I think generally speaking for Triti investors um they still have the mentality of BTC is a digital gold, Ethereum is a digital oil in a sense that is a smart contract platform but when it comes to more cryptonative communities what we have been debating for example this week with the launch of Monat which is the uh modular L1's and then we've been seeing all the different other L1s uh for example BNB chain Salana having great performance when the meme season kings around uh came came around right and then we also have other for example Hyperliquid itself as well as some other um traditional financial institutions they they're creating their own L1's to accommodate more RWA related things so within cryptonative communities we do see the competition of other fund fundamental infrastructures competing against Ethereum so there has been a bit of a sort of hesitance on the capital inflows off into Ethereum side. >> I've uh read and also talked to people who uh have told me about the Bitcoin miner pivot to AI. It doesn't happen to everybody, but a lot of Bitcoin miners and maybe even the big ones are have been reported to be selling Bitcoin in order to fund a transition into basically becoming part-time AI data centers. Can you comment on this trend and whether or not that's contributing to a big sell-off? Um so miners themselves they've been living the market for a long time like multiple different cycles and part of this how they use uh how they manage their holdings their BTC holdings as well as how they manage their computing uh resources like those are part of their corporate strategy in a sense so I wouldn't say that as a turning uh signal of the market in general because BTC mining is still a profitable business when when it comes to like when you look at the whole market cycle picture if you zoom out a little bit. So I guess for the miners themselves it is going to be just a tactical um decision during certain period in the market just to help with their own corporate strategies >> right now. uh tell us about the emergence of stable coins and uh well not emergence they they they've emerged a while ago but the uh mass adoption of stable coins now following the implementation and enaction of the Genius Act early in the summer and uh and whether or not that's maybe impacting liquidity in other areas of the sector. >> Yeah, sure. So, stable coins have seen such a growth in uh as a as a sector in terms of uh A1 growth which we call TVL as well as the product growth. Um because what the Genius Act really did for this industry is to encourage the separation of yield varing stable coins versus that of just purely you know uh asset backs. Um so what we saw right now as we speak tether they're having 184.5 billion USD uh market cap and followed by a few other um large leaders but within the stable coin sector for the past few months we saw the growing trend of yield bearing stable coins and that is such a bless and curse at the same time. less in a sense that we saw the aggregators in the middle uh curators if you like to call them to deploy all the D5 strategies to provide great APR or APY uh for for uh stablecoin users by just getting different yield strategies onto different chains by different projects but also at the same time that was partially one of the reason that gave us the 11th of October decidation. Um there have been some arguments on the exact reason for that the starting point of that and but definitely USDE was one of the core part of of that liquidation de leveraging reselling the market. >> I I suppose they also eventually will have huge um impact on the treasury market. The Genius Act basically um suggests or maybe even to some extent enforces that future stable coin issuers will have to be backed by US treasuries. Now imagine these treasury companies or stable coin companies um reversing that flow. In other words, dumping treasuries onto the market. That would have profound impact on the global financial markets. >> Um yes. So I you I guess you're right because if people are redeeming their stable coins out uh of the market that would happen but um as we saw since the approval of BTC ETFs to be honest and then we just saw such a massive growth of stable coin as a sector altogether the TVL keep on continues to grow. Um let me get the full data charts on this so I can have the exact number to share with you guys. Uh but oh I don't have I can't share it on this because I have this on my phone but I'll send you the chart and we can we can show show people that later. Um but the point I want to make is today there has been a news >> covered about tether and how S&P downgrading tether um because for the for the risk of um wait let me get a stable coin. Yeah. So stable coin a sector is 114.5 billion USD and that keeps on growing like the the the line chart I've saying has been like continuously upward trending. So yeah coming back to this now because stablecoin is becoming such a important building stone foundation for this industry now people are looking into the details here and tether being the biggest one. So, Tether's USDT stability score uh was cut to wake level by S&P um because quoting that the reserves can't absorb bitcoin drops as you mentioned there. So I guess the thing here is uh the treasury holdings within within those are adjusted to the level of demand of stable coins as as an industry as we grow and what I mentioned that potentially we have another bull market come back in February I don't think the demand on a stable coin will drop sharply as uh as it goes like this and also bear in mind the end of the year BTC sale is a we see that now with the ETF approval. Last year it was the same. It's just a temporary pure periodic portfolio rebalancing. >> But uh do you think stable coins are inherently um anti- bitcoin in the sense that uh flows will go into one and not into another or are they completely separate asset classes at this point? stable coins to to cryptonative group stable coin is our dry powder like that's how we park our dry powder at the same time stable coins they are a building block of defi so there are yield strategies on top etc it is liquidity etc within defi provided by stable coins so so it is still very important uh for crypton native communities but I wouldn't say they are clashing because what you would allocate to your bitcoin the role Bitcoin plays in your portfolio is vastly different to what stable coin would be. Um sometimes when Bitcoin price is volatile or people are unsure of the direction yes they might sell out of BTC to hold stable coins just to have the capital on the side but um then when the market is back they will likely to join the party again. So it's not one or the other. It is the same in traditional financial market as cash versus your invest like other bond or equity investment positions. >> So to sum up the market outlook, we mentioned liquidity as a driver, the Fed's um Federal Reserve monetary policy going into 2026 is a primary driver. And um and are there anything else? Is there anything else that you're following? Uh what about um what about this AI bubble that we haven't talked about that some executives in the AI tech space have already admitted that they're uh they're in a bubble? Ray Dallio just went on CBC earlier this week and said literally yes, we are definitely in a bubble. Now people can define this however they like. Um but how relevant is tech and the tech industry uh to the crypto space when it comes to liquidity and capital flows? >> Yeah. Um what we've been saying the Bitcoin price reactions to Nvidia stock price uh has having strong very strong correlation and what we saw especially last week uh when Nvidia had this it its earnings result BTC reacted very quickly ahead of the equity market on this and because the liquidity was so thin in the market so it quickly bounced back and then people use this as exit liquidity um and left the market. So we that's why we saw another dip after that initial pump. But at the same time to crypto people what we are thinking about AI bubbles is in a sense that if AI bubble does become a major catalyst of traditional finance market losing confidence then no risk on asset would outperform and BTC would be included as well in a in a sense as much as we say this is digital gold um even gold was dropping at that point right um And to the point that uh BTC it is it it is having its own debate uh when it comes to AI and computing cuz there was a very very focused debate about quantum computing and how that is going to destroy Bitcoin and Bitcoin basically goes to zero. There was such a crazy debate on this point and but then later on some of the core devs from BTC community came out to say um worry not about that risk because there will be certain upgrades etc to prevent that from happening. So we have our own crypto native um AI and computing bubble the battle to fight fight as well. But to your point it did give us a great opportunity an opportunity for what? Opportunity for something um to go into the markets and with that I actually want to mention one thing. I I forgot to to say this at the beginning which is something called CMC 20. And we can talk a little bit about that as well because the a the AI bubble and the the fear of busting that bubble created such a great entry point and that was the launch dates of CMC 20 token and so yeah >> well yeah let's talk about CMC 20 in a bit. So you've got uh coin market cap launches CMC 20 index tokens compete with multicoin ETFs. What's an index token? Yeah. So it is essentially tokenized tradable crypto index. It is um backed onto the top 20 largest cryptocurrencies >> in on CMC. It is excluding stable coins, excluding wrapped tokens like wrapped ETH etc. and tokens with limited uh tradability. So it is similar to the S&P 500 equivalent. It is a benchmark measures against the market and now in a single defy enabled tradable form market. >> I remember in 2017 I was thinking to myself I could use something like this. Why did it take the market so long or I guess >> um why did this product take so long to to launch? I'm not I'm not calling out coin market cap. I'm sure other people have worked on it but yeah go ahead. There are challenges to that because if you look at ETFs, how S&P 500 ETFs is structured. You have the index, then you have the the the desk of authorized participant market makers to go and buy those stocks and then they give the basket of stocks to the ETF issuer and when clients investors give let's say a,000 USD to Black Rockck and then they buy the same the the the equivalent unit of CTF that's how it works. But when it comes to tokenization, we cannot have that middleman. It has to be done on the defy smart contract because vote is a law and we do want we do not want to give money to someone in the middle and then they they give us a token that is like they say that they use the money to buy the token but how can I verify again when it comes to this is all about transparency. So CMC partnered with a protocol called reserve. Um so when user gives a 100 USD to this to buy CMC 20 the D5 protocol would use that money to buy the 20 underlying tokens based on the index on BMBB chain and then mint a CMC 20 in return. All this transaction is done via smart contract. It's trackable online. There's no middleman uh there and it's fully transparent. So you can see that this is why it took us so long to build this thing. Um there are a few concerns here but also most importantly uh we have not seen a index in the market that covers the all of the top 20. There are a few other sort of similar indices out there but majority of them are missing one or if not multiple K players. And to your point, David, I think it's such a great tool to have when you don't know what to invest and you don't want to like miss out on the trend. You don't want to constantly look at crypto every day. What is pumping? When should I sell? What should I buy next? Like just buy the index. Relax. And this is why I think for the past few days, it's been such a great tool to be honest. >> Yeah. So this is your coin market cap 20 index DTF. Um this is this is a Yeah. This is just the index. So do you rebalance regularly? Well, would you? >> No, it is uh it is monthly rebalancing. Uh S&P 500 is quarterly. So if you you can view the index, it's uh live and transparent on CMC right now. If you go on to dashboard and in the second column, it has CMC 20 index. Um and then you can see what is in the index at the moment. So market cap weighted monthly rebalancing. So every month we take a cut on which 20 names makes it into the index and because it's market cap weighted so it's just like refreshes every second. >> But but isn't that just sorry isn't that just mostly Bitcoin then still if it's market cap weighted >> right now it's 67% BTC ether is at 13.7%. But we intended to do it this way we did not want to cap it. Why? because um when the altcoin season comes in this uh index has demonstrated back testing result of outperforming BTC um significantly and the reason for that is um we did when we constructed the index we really did this with tradability in mind so we did a top 100 there's a CMC 100 index as well but there is not a tradable token so when we wanted to do a tradable index we tested the top 10 top 20 top 50 and we landed on the top 20 for the best exposure to what is trending uh versus like the most uh the mo the largest cap the safest bet. So this index is really created with the weight in mind that with whatever um narrative is trending you would capture that growth immediately in the index. >> Uh I want to pivot now before we end the conversation on something that um people don't discuss as much. This is Vitalik uh Butrin, a Ethereum co-founder making some uh statements about quantum computing at a recent event. Ell elliptic curves are going to die, he said, um pointing to predictions that quantum computing could potentially break Ethereum before 2028. On November 13th, Scott Aronson, a quantum computing professor at the University of Texas at Austin, stated that fault tolerant quantum computers could threaten Bitcoin's elliptic cryptography by 2028. I now think it's a live possibility that we'll have a fault tolerant quantum computing running shores algorithms before the next US presidential election. Uh chat GBT warns quantum computing poses a real and time-sensitive challenge for blockchains built on elliptic curve cryptography. We all know that a chat GTP says it. It must be correct. There's no other option. I'm kidding. That's that's that was a joke. So what's your human evaluation? [laughter] Yeah. Um, I love that by the way because it's uh it's it's such this is like one of the lazy way for people to like debate on a big topic like this. I'll just ask Chad and see what chat says you judge. >> Yeah, >> you can ask CMC AI now. We also have this and we can do a way more native like crypto native analysis for you. So to to answer your question, what do I think about this? Um, >> you know what? Let's do it now. >> Okay. I'm gonna get please answer and then as as you're answering, I'm gonna ask the AI see if they agree with you. Okay. >> Yeah. So, my answer here is the we got to look at the big picture which is Bitcoin will evolve. It will not die. So, there are a few threat types private K attack the ECDSA that you mentioned elliptic uh what's the full name the >> Yeah. Yeah. So that is one of the risk levels but it's more of a long to long-term potential risk and this is solvable via PQC upgrade that uh Bitcoin core dev community has mentioned. Number two is the mining hashtype the shaw uh 5 uh 256 that's a minimal uh theoretical risk there and there's not really any significant impact and there's also consensus disruption uh that is very low to be honest. people say that uh an upgrade of the BTC network can solve that. So all of this we are looking at realistically timeline 15 plus years. Uh I know Vitalic quoted by 2028 honestly speaking to do something like this for BTC is is not not going to happen by 2028. Plus the community are now really working closely on the upgrade already. Um so by that point when quantum computing comes around there are so many other things that would have way more risk u way more important to solve than this than just hacking BTC to be honest. >> Sure. And certainly I don't think the market is pricing this in right now. I mean no one's talking about this risk as being the main reason people are selling off and if quantum computing is the main risk it's going to go near zero not 20% correction right. So >> all assets will be as zero by that point, not just BTC. >> Yeah, exactly. Okay, Alice. Well, great thoughts. Thank you very much for joining the program and uh tell us where we can find more about your work and uh and and follow you and and uh the work that you do. >> Yeah, sure. So on Parket Cap, you can follow me on uh CMZ community uh under the name of Alice uh Crypto and I have my weekly podcast there as well where I talk about the market. On Twitter, you can find me, Alice Crypto3. And on uh LinkedIn, um also um just search Alice CMC, you'll find me. >> Okay. All right. We'll uh put the links down below. So, make sure to follow Alice and Coin Market Cap there. Thank you very much, Alice. Good to meet you. We'll have you back again soon. Take care for now. >> Thank you very much. >> Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
Bitcoin’s Next ‘Takeoff’ Revealed, Here’s When | CoinMarketCap’s Alice Liu
Summary
Transcript
Right now the number one topic in the market is is this a bare market? Are we still going to have a bounce back? When is the Q4 going to deliver some great result for us? It's not impossible to have another all-time high. In FE the people sitting at the table, they are different now. [music] So their behavior impact what we will say in crypto. AI bubble does become a major catalyst of traditional finance market losing confidence that no risk on asset would outperform and BTC would be included as well. >> Bitcoin wipes out more than $400 billion in a week. Uh this past month has seen the biggest losses in crypto in terms of market cap in history. Uh, Bitcoin is now firmly below its year-to- date uh, gain territory and uh, we're still well below $100,000. Even as we're speaking today on the 26th of November, Bitcoin's up about over 3%. But it's still underperforming stocks. We're talking to somebody who now who follows data uh, very very closely. She is Alice Leu, head of research at Coin Market Cap. Welcome to the show, Alice. Good to see you. >> Great to see you. Thanks for having me here. Coin Market Cap is perhaps one of the uh most definitive resources for data and analytics and uh live prices for the entire crypto space. Everyone uses it every day. So, I'm very happy to have you on the show. Tell us about the key trends that you're paying attention to right now that are moving crypto markets. In other words, why have we seen such a huge outflow of capital outside of crypto or out of crypto rather in the last four to six weeks? >> Yeah, sure. Starting from last week, last week was the darkest part of the fair and greed sentiment in the market. We did have the CMC crypto fair and greed index hit as low as 10. Right now, as we speak, it did bounce back to 15. Um, but 10 was the lowest we've ever recorded since we launched the index in 2023. So, right now, the number one topic in the market is, is this a bare market? Are we still going to have a bounce back? when is the Q4 going to deliver some great result for us. So one interesting thing which is the CMC cryptof fairing grade index it never stays below 15 for more than 7 days and this time around it is the same pattern. So we did say yesterday the index level bounced back and the market seems to be having a bit of a V-shaped recovery in terms of the sentiment alone. And as we speak, David, I'm so happy because we finally have BTC uh rushing above 90K. Right now, it's $9,052. Uh for us at the moment, we've been waiting for this for a long time now. That was last week, but you were right. For the past four to six weeks, the market has been seeing a exceptional amount of outflows. Uh US BTC ETFs alone had about 4 billion USD outflows in November. And that has been the highest has ever recorded on a monthly basis. And also for us as an industry, I generally look at the trend in three layers. Number one, macro market is set the direction of where we're going. Number two, the flows talking about ETF flows, talking about institutional flows, micro strategy, uh redeems, etc. that sets the speed of going to that direction. And the last part, I look at onchain data. onching data will then tell me how sustainable that speed is. And for the past four to six weeks, because of the deleveraging in the market, what we saw post 11th of October, the massive liquidation in the market, it seems to have then experienced a great outflows, the market has sort of cleared up the leverage at the moment. A lot of the capitals are on the sideline waiting and BTC dominance dropped back to 58%. And I would say based on the most recent varian greed and the market cap and trading volume, I can see that the sentiment has calmed down a little bit and we are ready uh for another takeoff if if the market is set up, right? >> Let me just open up coin market cap. So this is the uh homepage. So maybe walk us through what people should be doing and going to first uh when evaluating the current sentiment in the market. So we talked about fear and greed. The altcoin season indicator is pretty interesting. Right now it's firmly still in Bitcoin season. Uh and as you know most alcoins got wiped out uh over the last month. Um and then average crypto RSI. How do we use this page Alice? >> Yeah sure. So you're right. I'll start with fair and great but also look at the um if you go on to the second tab which says dashboard and under the markets tab you will have market overview. The first one if you click on it it brings all the details here. This is how I start my money. I look at the fair and grid first to monitor the market sentiment and I look at the total market cap and volume. Volume is very important right now. What we are seeing is a slight drawing up in liquidity and I would pay attention to that. And you're right. And then look at the alcoin season, but click into the chart because that is interesting to observe. Yes, I know it's been very bad for the past 90 days, but if you look at some of the pockets nuggets in crypto market is still delivering great results. what you're saying the alt says and how we measure it is by tracking the top 100 largest coins on CMC and their performance over the past 90 days. If 75% of them are outperforming BTC, then we are firmly in an alcoin season. But right now, we are in BTC season. Even in a market like this, we still have amazing growth such as Aster, such as uh if you scroll down a little bit, you'll see like some of the names delivering great results uh for the for the past 90 years. Yes. Uh every single one of this has a narrative behind it. The cash that ts into the privacy narrative that we were saying. It had amazing up run for the past few months. Um and um tagging to privacy it's lash Monero um it is a few that it is stash a few other tokens as well and aar it leads the per daxis um narrative in the market but yes you saw all this red um hopefully we will have another comeback of the market very soon. If you Yeah, this is 55% 70 80% loss. When you look at the reds and then when you look at the greens, so the altcoins that gain versus the altcoins that got wiped out. I know every single altcoin has its own narrative, especially the ones that gained. But is there a constant pattern here like you know coins that did well in a Bitcoin season versus coins that did not do well >> for the previous market cycles? Yes. But right now it's really hard to predict. What we generally see is a narrative trending in the market for no more than 14 days. 14 days is the amount of attention you would get in crypto as a trending narrative. And privacy has been quite an exception for the past few weeks mostly because the market has been starved of new narratives, topics to grab onto. So this together with X42 payment theme seems to be a very big uh trend. But also at the same time, what I'm really looking at right now is the great buying opportunity for some quality projects. There are a few things I personally think will be great uh growth drivers in 2026 when the market comes back. Number one is still going to be perexis. So we are still talking about aar, talking about hyperlid etc. Um a few other perexes as well. So what we're really seeing is the fundamental use cases of them and the revenue, trade volume, open interest that these these um platforms generate. So you can now use CMC AI below the price chart. You click on the analysis there. It actually gives you the live AI uh like generated analysis of why uh the token is having the price reaction it is. >> Why is Astro's price down today? >> Huh? It is very accurate in a sense that it's taking uh data from not just the trade volume, price volume, but also from onchain stats as well as the the RSS fates of the news and the community comments. >> The global financial system is rapidly moving onchain. And today's sponsor, Cool Wallet, is a name worth watching. Cool Wallet builds next generation cold wallets designed for a world where real world assets, payments, and savings live on the blockchain. Their flagship credit card- sized hardware wallets combine CCAL6 plus secure element protection, mobile first usability, and a unique 2 plus one factor authentication system that requires your phone, your biometric ID, and your card to approve every single transaction. So, here's a cool wallet go card. It's an easy to use onthe-go card- sized hard drive that stores your private keys and literally fits inside your wallet or purse. Activating the card is simple. It takes about 30 seconds. 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To learn more, go to the link down below or scan the QR code here. And if you do use my code, you'll get a 5% off on your first purchase. I'd also encourage you to check out my interview with Cool Wallet CEO Michael O for more details on the product and why we need self- custody today. And he also explains in great detail how the security functions work. Link also down below. Can I go to volume and see positioning? uh sort of like a CME um commitment of traders report traders long positions or short positions are there are there any such thing >> uh we have the liquidation uh map but it's in a separate tab so it would be yeah not directly on the coin detail page because this is still very much you know the spot focused the page for for you um but then we would have the liquidation details later as well >> well right now uh how would you evaluate positioning our are our traders, you know, most of the volume is it selling or buying? Well, I know in the last 30 minutes it's buying, but overall in the last week or so. Uh uh positioning and sentiment, how would you evaluate it? Still still in fear territory right now? >> Um the data is telling me 15, which is still in extreme fair, but I saw the Vshape come back already. And based on the long short ratio, let me check now. I know you said don't check the last 30 minutes, but we had some material change for the last 30 minutes. >> No, no, 30 minutes is fine. >> 29 minutes is also fine. Whatever time period you want, whatever is important for you. Uh we want to know what's pumping right now and what's what's uh or what's dumping as well. And um >> Sure. So as we speak for the past hour or so, that's the data I have. uh the long short position seems to be uh yeah we are 6 57% bullish uh longing on the market. >> Tell us about some of the macro variables or trends that you're following. You mentioned in the beginning that right now it's very much a macrodriven narrative for crypto and uh a lot of people would agree and a lot of people wonder well even though stocks are still in a bull market technically why are bitcoin and other cryptos not outperforming stocks. >> Yeah exactly. So this is what I love about your audience face I think because people have such deep knowledge in uh finance and just in in global markets in general. So we do save the dispersion of you know what is happening in crypto versus what is happening in traditional markets. So from my point of view there are two unique idiosyncratic risks to crypto. Number one is liquidity because December is the people sitting at the table they are different. Now what I mean by that is the amount of holders uh from the institutional side ETF holders uh and digital asset treasury holders they have now uh account for a large proportion of the uh volume and of the uh holdings in crypto. So their behavior impacts what we will say in crypto and what we are saying is December is generally the time for them to rebalance their portfolios, right? We would have some tax related um trading activities as well. So that is one of the reason why we saw the large pull out of the capital in the market for the few past few weeks as well and December is generally very thin liquidity for crypto and that just enhanced that character uh by now having tried five sitting at the table. Um so number two of crypto native risk here um is the hing cycle. I know people have been talking about it. Four year having cycle it normally happens around uh past like the 560 64 days to 594 days around that range post the hopping and then when it when it takes uh us to this market cycle it's coming right now about November time December time. So for some people who believe in having cycle they would be doing their trade based on this position as well. So those are the two unique characters of crypto uh for for for what it is. >> Well, let's take a look at uh the Bitcoin price chart. So it it it seems to be following what it's done in the past, meaning we have a top, a double top, and then a correction, stabilize around the previous bull cycle top, and then grind up higher in a few years. It's it's a very predictable cycle when you look at how it's performed in the past. However, some people make an argument that the Bitcoin 4-year cycle is pretty much over. Um, it's not really following uh what it's done before. Although, if you look at it, uh, it is it kind of still is. Maybe I think people don't want to admit that maybe this was the cycle top. So, if you if you were to follow the 4-year cycle, I think you you could make the argument that we're not coming back to above $120,000 for Bitcoin. But anyway, I'll let you do your analysis and perhaps what you've heard from your associates as well. >> Yeah. So, what we are generally looking at the moment is actually relying on traditional finance to give us some uh macro indication in a sense that uh what we are saying because of the government shutdown for the past uh well it's for over a month and we are missing a quite a few key economic data. So that's why investors are parking their capital on the side and as December comes in and we have more data transparency there um we generally anticipate January time maybe around January Feb Fed would make a decision and give us potentially additional injection of liquidity in the market as well as you know interest rate decisions on that and um February is going to be the time where we are likely to see a comeback of the market again. Okay, >> it's not impossible to have another alltime high in Feb. >> All right. Um, let's talk about uh the the ETFs. Now, the ETFs were a huge boost for Bitcoin uh but not so much for Ethereum and uh now there's speculation as to which neck which altcoin could be getting an ETF next. How significant are ETF inflows actually for the underlying token? >> Yeah, so there are two things. Number one is the approval of the ETF themselves. Number two is the actual AUM flying in. Um so number one, we recently had Solana, XRP, etc. ETF approved. Um but we didn't really see the price reacting to this and it was very short-lived optimism and the one of the main reason is that there is just not enough money coming in and plus these tokens have been having quite significant market cap already. So for them to have a meaningful movement is going to require a lot of capital and that's the same case when it comes to Ethereum as well. I think generally speaking for Triti investors um they still have the mentality of BTC is a digital gold, Ethereum is a digital oil in a sense that is a smart contract platform but when it comes to more cryptonative communities what we have been debating for example this week with the launch of Monat which is the uh modular L1's and then we've been seeing all the different other L1s uh for example BNB chain Salana having great performance when the meme season kings around uh came came around right and then we also have other for example Hyperliquid itself as well as some other um traditional financial institutions they they're creating their own L1's to accommodate more RWA related things so within cryptonative communities we do see the competition of other fund fundamental infrastructures competing against Ethereum so there has been a bit of a sort of hesitance on the capital inflows off into Ethereum side. >> I've uh read and also talked to people who uh have told me about the Bitcoin miner pivot to AI. It doesn't happen to everybody, but a lot of Bitcoin miners and maybe even the big ones are have been reported to be selling Bitcoin in order to fund a transition into basically becoming part-time AI data centers. Can you comment on this trend and whether or not that's contributing to a big sell-off? Um so miners themselves they've been living the market for a long time like multiple different cycles and part of this how they use uh how they manage their holdings their BTC holdings as well as how they manage their computing uh resources like those are part of their corporate strategy in a sense so I wouldn't say that as a turning uh signal of the market in general because BTC mining is still a profitable business when when it comes to like when you look at the whole market cycle picture if you zoom out a little bit. So I guess for the miners themselves it is going to be just a tactical um decision during certain period in the market just to help with their own corporate strategies >> right now. uh tell us about the emergence of stable coins and uh well not emergence they they they've emerged a while ago but the uh mass adoption of stable coins now following the implementation and enaction of the Genius Act early in the summer and uh and whether or not that's maybe impacting liquidity in other areas of the sector. >> Yeah, sure. So, stable coins have seen such a growth in uh as a as a sector in terms of uh A1 growth which we call TVL as well as the product growth. Um because what the Genius Act really did for this industry is to encourage the separation of yield varing stable coins versus that of just purely you know uh asset backs. Um so what we saw right now as we speak tether they're having 184.5 billion USD uh market cap and followed by a few other um large leaders but within the stable coin sector for the past few months we saw the growing trend of yield bearing stable coins and that is such a bless and curse at the same time. less in a sense that we saw the aggregators in the middle uh curators if you like to call them to deploy all the D5 strategies to provide great APR or APY uh for for uh stablecoin users by just getting different yield strategies onto different chains by different projects but also at the same time that was partially one of the reason that gave us the 11th of October decidation. Um there have been some arguments on the exact reason for that the starting point of that and but definitely USDE was one of the core part of of that liquidation de leveraging reselling the market. >> I I suppose they also eventually will have huge um impact on the treasury market. The Genius Act basically um suggests or maybe even to some extent enforces that future stable coin issuers will have to be backed by US treasuries. Now imagine these treasury companies or stable coin companies um reversing that flow. In other words, dumping treasuries onto the market. That would have profound impact on the global financial markets. >> Um yes. So I you I guess you're right because if people are redeeming their stable coins out uh of the market that would happen but um as we saw since the approval of BTC ETFs to be honest and then we just saw such a massive growth of stable coin as a sector altogether the TVL keep on continues to grow. Um let me get the full data charts on this so I can have the exact number to share with you guys. Uh but oh I don't have I can't share it on this because I have this on my phone but I'll send you the chart and we can we can show show people that later. Um but the point I want to make is today there has been a news >> covered about tether and how S&P downgrading tether um because for the for the risk of um wait let me get a stable coin. Yeah. So stable coin a sector is 114.5 billion USD and that keeps on growing like the the the line chart I've saying has been like continuously upward trending. So yeah coming back to this now because stablecoin is becoming such a important building stone foundation for this industry now people are looking into the details here and tether being the biggest one. So, Tether's USDT stability score uh was cut to wake level by S&P um because quoting that the reserves can't absorb bitcoin drops as you mentioned there. So I guess the thing here is uh the treasury holdings within within those are adjusted to the level of demand of stable coins as as an industry as we grow and what I mentioned that potentially we have another bull market come back in February I don't think the demand on a stable coin will drop sharply as uh as it goes like this and also bear in mind the end of the year BTC sale is a we see that now with the ETF approval. Last year it was the same. It's just a temporary pure periodic portfolio rebalancing. >> But uh do you think stable coins are inherently um anti- bitcoin in the sense that uh flows will go into one and not into another or are they completely separate asset classes at this point? stable coins to to cryptonative group stable coin is our dry powder like that's how we park our dry powder at the same time stable coins they are a building block of defi so there are yield strategies on top etc it is liquidity etc within defi provided by stable coins so so it is still very important uh for crypton native communities but I wouldn't say they are clashing because what you would allocate to your bitcoin the role Bitcoin plays in your portfolio is vastly different to what stable coin would be. Um sometimes when Bitcoin price is volatile or people are unsure of the direction yes they might sell out of BTC to hold stable coins just to have the capital on the side but um then when the market is back they will likely to join the party again. So it's not one or the other. It is the same in traditional financial market as cash versus your invest like other bond or equity investment positions. >> So to sum up the market outlook, we mentioned liquidity as a driver, the Fed's um Federal Reserve monetary policy going into 2026 is a primary driver. And um and are there anything else? Is there anything else that you're following? Uh what about um what about this AI bubble that we haven't talked about that some executives in the AI tech space have already admitted that they're uh they're in a bubble? Ray Dallio just went on CBC earlier this week and said literally yes, we are definitely in a bubble. Now people can define this however they like. Um but how relevant is tech and the tech industry uh to the crypto space when it comes to liquidity and capital flows? >> Yeah. Um what we've been saying the Bitcoin price reactions to Nvidia stock price uh has having strong very strong correlation and what we saw especially last week uh when Nvidia had this it its earnings result BTC reacted very quickly ahead of the equity market on this and because the liquidity was so thin in the market so it quickly bounced back and then people use this as exit liquidity um and left the market. So we that's why we saw another dip after that initial pump. But at the same time to crypto people what we are thinking about AI bubbles is in a sense that if AI bubble does become a major catalyst of traditional finance market losing confidence then no risk on asset would outperform and BTC would be included as well in a in a sense as much as we say this is digital gold um even gold was dropping at that point right um And to the point that uh BTC it is it it is having its own debate uh when it comes to AI and computing cuz there was a very very focused debate about quantum computing and how that is going to destroy Bitcoin and Bitcoin basically goes to zero. There was such a crazy debate on this point and but then later on some of the core devs from BTC community came out to say um worry not about that risk because there will be certain upgrades etc to prevent that from happening. So we have our own crypto native um AI and computing bubble the battle to fight fight as well. But to your point it did give us a great opportunity an opportunity for what? Opportunity for something um to go into the markets and with that I actually want to mention one thing. I I forgot to to say this at the beginning which is something called CMC 20. And we can talk a little bit about that as well because the a the AI bubble and the the fear of busting that bubble created such a great entry point and that was the launch dates of CMC 20 token and so yeah >> well yeah let's talk about CMC 20 in a bit. So you've got uh coin market cap launches CMC 20 index tokens compete with multicoin ETFs. What's an index token? Yeah. So it is essentially tokenized tradable crypto index. It is um backed onto the top 20 largest cryptocurrencies >> in on CMC. It is excluding stable coins, excluding wrapped tokens like wrapped ETH etc. and tokens with limited uh tradability. So it is similar to the S&P 500 equivalent. It is a benchmark measures against the market and now in a single defy enabled tradable form market. >> I remember in 2017 I was thinking to myself I could use something like this. Why did it take the market so long or I guess >> um why did this product take so long to to launch? I'm not I'm not calling out coin market cap. I'm sure other people have worked on it but yeah go ahead. There are challenges to that because if you look at ETFs, how S&P 500 ETFs is structured. You have the index, then you have the the the desk of authorized participant market makers to go and buy those stocks and then they give the basket of stocks to the ETF issuer and when clients investors give let's say a,000 USD to Black Rockck and then they buy the same the the the equivalent unit of CTF that's how it works. But when it comes to tokenization, we cannot have that middleman. It has to be done on the defy smart contract because vote is a law and we do want we do not want to give money to someone in the middle and then they they give us a token that is like they say that they use the money to buy the token but how can I verify again when it comes to this is all about transparency. So CMC partnered with a protocol called reserve. Um so when user gives a 100 USD to this to buy CMC 20 the D5 protocol would use that money to buy the 20 underlying tokens based on the index on BMBB chain and then mint a CMC 20 in return. All this transaction is done via smart contract. It's trackable online. There's no middleman uh there and it's fully transparent. So you can see that this is why it took us so long to build this thing. Um there are a few concerns here but also most importantly uh we have not seen a index in the market that covers the all of the top 20. There are a few other sort of similar indices out there but majority of them are missing one or if not multiple K players. And to your point, David, I think it's such a great tool to have when you don't know what to invest and you don't want to like miss out on the trend. You don't want to constantly look at crypto every day. What is pumping? When should I sell? What should I buy next? Like just buy the index. Relax. And this is why I think for the past few days, it's been such a great tool to be honest. >> Yeah. So this is your coin market cap 20 index DTF. Um this is this is a Yeah. This is just the index. So do you rebalance regularly? Well, would you? >> No, it is uh it is monthly rebalancing. Uh S&P 500 is quarterly. So if you you can view the index, it's uh live and transparent on CMC right now. If you go on to dashboard and in the second column, it has CMC 20 index. Um and then you can see what is in the index at the moment. So market cap weighted monthly rebalancing. So every month we take a cut on which 20 names makes it into the index and because it's market cap weighted so it's just like refreshes every second. >> But but isn't that just sorry isn't that just mostly Bitcoin then still if it's market cap weighted >> right now it's 67% BTC ether is at 13.7%. But we intended to do it this way we did not want to cap it. Why? because um when the altcoin season comes in this uh index has demonstrated back testing result of outperforming BTC um significantly and the reason for that is um we did when we constructed the index we really did this with tradability in mind so we did a top 100 there's a CMC 100 index as well but there is not a tradable token so when we wanted to do a tradable index we tested the top 10 top 20 top 50 and we landed on the top 20 for the best exposure to what is trending uh versus like the most uh the mo the largest cap the safest bet. So this index is really created with the weight in mind that with whatever um narrative is trending you would capture that growth immediately in the index. >> Uh I want to pivot now before we end the conversation on something that um people don't discuss as much. This is Vitalik uh Butrin, a Ethereum co-founder making some uh statements about quantum computing at a recent event. Ell elliptic curves are going to die, he said, um pointing to predictions that quantum computing could potentially break Ethereum before 2028. On November 13th, Scott Aronson, a quantum computing professor at the University of Texas at Austin, stated that fault tolerant quantum computers could threaten Bitcoin's elliptic cryptography by 2028. I now think it's a live possibility that we'll have a fault tolerant quantum computing running shores algorithms before the next US presidential election. Uh chat GBT warns quantum computing poses a real and time-sensitive challenge for blockchains built on elliptic curve cryptography. We all know that a chat GTP says it. It must be correct. There's no other option. I'm kidding. That's that's that was a joke. So what's your human evaluation? [laughter] Yeah. Um, I love that by the way because it's uh it's it's such this is like one of the lazy way for people to like debate on a big topic like this. I'll just ask Chad and see what chat says you judge. >> Yeah, >> you can ask CMC AI now. We also have this and we can do a way more native like crypto native analysis for you. So to to answer your question, what do I think about this? Um, >> you know what? Let's do it now. >> Okay. I'm gonna get please answer and then as as you're answering, I'm gonna ask the AI see if they agree with you. Okay. >> Yeah. So, my answer here is the we got to look at the big picture which is Bitcoin will evolve. It will not die. So, there are a few threat types private K attack the ECDSA that you mentioned elliptic uh what's the full name the >> Yeah. Yeah. So that is one of the risk levels but it's more of a long to long-term potential risk and this is solvable via PQC upgrade that uh Bitcoin core dev community has mentioned. Number two is the mining hashtype the shaw uh 5 uh 256 that's a minimal uh theoretical risk there and there's not really any significant impact and there's also consensus disruption uh that is very low to be honest. people say that uh an upgrade of the BTC network can solve that. So all of this we are looking at realistically timeline 15 plus years. Uh I know Vitalic quoted by 2028 honestly speaking to do something like this for BTC is is not not going to happen by 2028. Plus the community are now really working closely on the upgrade already. Um so by that point when quantum computing comes around there are so many other things that would have way more risk u way more important to solve than this than just hacking BTC to be honest. >> Sure. And certainly I don't think the market is pricing this in right now. I mean no one's talking about this risk as being the main reason people are selling off and if quantum computing is the main risk it's going to go near zero not 20% correction right. So >> all assets will be as zero by that point, not just BTC. >> Yeah, exactly. Okay, Alice. Well, great thoughts. Thank you very much for joining the program and uh tell us where we can find more about your work and uh and and follow you and and uh the work that you do. >> Yeah, sure. So on Parket Cap, you can follow me on uh CMZ community uh under the name of Alice uh Crypto and I have my weekly podcast there as well where I talk about the market. On Twitter, you can find me, Alice Crypto3. And on uh LinkedIn, um also um just search Alice CMC, you'll find me. >> Okay. All right. We'll uh put the links down below. So, make sure to follow Alice and Coin Market Cap there. Thank you very much, Alice. Good to meet you. We'll have you back again soon. Take care for now. >> Thank you very much. >> Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.