Brett Rentmeester: 2026 Is a Make-or-Break Year for Markets—The AI Arms Race & Fourth Turning Moment
Summary
When systems are stressed, portfolios get tested. Get a free review from Brett Rentmeester and the Windrock team here: …
Transcript
We're at a crisis kind of moment where old systems are failing, met with record debt and in kind of the realities that we can't just keep spending money and printing money out of thin air to get by. We're at these critical junctures. What can we do if things aren't okay or if the old rules change? That's the delicate nature of investing in 2026. Hello and welcome to Wealthy on. I'm Maggie Lake and joining me to discuss some of the trends that are going to impact investing decisions in 2026 is Brett Rentmester, founder and managing director of Windrock Wealth Management. Hey Brett, it's great to see you. >> Happy New Year, Maggie. >> Oh my goodness. Yeah, and it it it has just been action-packed right out of the gate. Um, and I think we know from the first few trading days that 2026 is likely to be a pretty tumultuous year. If if if nothing else, um, we can look in the crystal ball and say that. So, if you're listening and you want to stress test your portfolio and make sure you feel comfortable with your allocations, you can get a free review from a member of the Windrock team. Just head to the link in the description or go to wealthon.comfree. All right, Brett, you have described 2026 as a make orb breakak year. What do you mean by that? >> Yeah. Well, I'd say it it uh continues from our prior discussions in the fall, Maggie, that you know, this culmination of what I'd say the fourth turning type lessons that we're at a crisis kind of moment where old systems are failing met with record debt and in kind of the realities that we can't just keep spending money and printing money out of thin air to get by lead us to this really critical moment in 2026. And I think in our prior interviews we discussed it as maybe having two paths. The more passive but destructive path is the slow and steady Titanic going at the iceberg. Like we can't enact any major change. Takes a little longer but you know it's assured destruction. And the second path which I think we're on now seeing how the year's starting is is massive proactive change. Um trying to avert some of the problems that are right ahead of us. And I think we're seeing that as you said uh right out of the gates. >> Yeah, the headlines have been have been really crazy. Um and that I think that that idea that uh there's going to be massive change and action to try to see whether these issues can be addressed. There's a lot of uncertainty with that which I think is is really difficult if you're an investor. >> Yeah. I think it it forces you to live in two worlds. And we've long had this saying, you know, one foot in the current system, one foot out. You know, really trying to tell the story of yes, we got to invest like everything could be okay, but don't forget we're at these critical junctures. So, what can we do if things aren't okay or if the old rules change? And so, that's the delicate nature of investing in 2026. >> Yeah. And I I think that you bring up a great point because for me I think about it as sort of trying to hold two f time frames in your mind at once, right? You know, if you're a longer term investor, you're used to being able to sort of, you know, think in that way. But now you've got to really be plugged into the present because we have this sort of feeling that things are accelerating and changing while at the same time trying to be smart about long term and not be paralyzed by the time we're in. Right? So let's break down a few elements of this sort of activist forward motion type path that we that we seem to be on um where things are rapidly changing and one of the big issues we've seen is geopolitics right like so did did going into v the US going into Venezuela arresting Maduro on his home her turf did that raise geopolitical the geopolitical risk profile how are you thinking about that >> yeah I mean listen there's a lot of complicated questions right now you you could ask. I think you know putting any single event aside there is one thing that I think is important to throw out as a theme and that is it seems like the world is on a race towards understanding that whoever wins in the AI race might have kind of global dominance. >> So that's creating a lot of behavior and forces that you have that at the same time as this fourth turning and all these potential negatives. you've got, you know, the the race towards AI and this whole um excitement about a sci-fi kind of future and what that might look like, you know, butting heads. And so the race towards AI goes well beyond just knowledge and and technology. It it includes grabbing resources. It includes strategic alliances. And there's a lot of things going on domestically and abroad that that speak to this. So, you know, Venezuela in particular, you I don't know. I I really don't. But it's clear that it's not just Venezuela, right? I mean, we uh um we're threatening Mexico and Iran. We've got discussions out there, at least, you know, in the blog sphere on Greenland and Alberta and, you know, pulling other territories into what we know as the US. And I think these are all related to this feeling that this is a nation state survival moment of a race for resources, a race for AI dominance and this belief that whoever gets there kind of calls the shots. So I think I can't speak exactly to the Maduro situation, but is it part of this broader, you know, picture perhaps? I I think that is spoton and and really important because I think we used to see these things as sort of you know a foreign policy decision but you're right I think to to point out that it's really economically driven and if you see them all as all connected um then I think it's a little bit easier to understand this and especially when you're looking at it through an investment lens. So, another theme that you've surfaced is government intervention, right? And so, this is another one. Right out of the gate in 2026, I feel like we're seeing the sort of um more activist hand of the government. Uh and in the Trump administration, it might look like really testing the powers of the executive branch. But this is a big change from I think this sort of lazair, you know, free market uh approach that we're used to in the US. >> Yeah, it is. And interestingly enough, back to this forth turning uh the book by Neil How um you know the framework of that is every 80 years there's this crisis, the rules change, the old institutions fail and you you build new institutions. The last fourth turning or crisis moment was in fact the Great Depression and World War II. what happened during that period um you know the New Deal uh social security put into place all these interventionalist changes to society so now we sit here and like you said right out of the gate we are seeing um right now I'd call it you know Trump putting his opinion out there um but with seriousness I think he's understanding that the average American is having a really hard time getting by in this bloated cost structure with these failing systems and soaring costs not only of you know education and medicine as we've spoken about in the past but just day-to-day life you know stopping to get you know fast food for your kids is now you know $60 that kind of thing um and so I I think we're seeing in politics amumani in in New York you know we're seeing people kind of crying uncle and saying I need some relief and so what's happened so far I mean literally in the last week he's put out something about limiting institutions from buying single family homes because Wall Street has this great advantage of hey we give you we have basically free money and we that's a better it's a better rate than you can get Maggie trying to buy a home right so it gives them a huge advantage so we've seen that we've seen him try to push this idea of hey we don't have to get health insurance through these giant insurers let's open up marketplaces and make it more dynamic that's still in place we've seen just recently capping interest rates on credit cards we've seen within the last you know couple hours I think as something about electricity. Hey, tech companies that need data centers, we can't let them drive up electricity costs of the populace. So, these are all major things and it's coming, you know, hard and fast. And I think the question is, will they be able to actually push through major change in these areas and um we'll see, but right now it's coming fast and furious. >> Yeah. It and it's created I think this from an investor this is where it's so different. It's made for some interesting bedfellows, right? Right. I mean, I think like sort of, you know, some very left-leaning Democrats and Trump were getting together talking about credit cards in an agency he used to hate. Um, and and you know, there's all this sort of alignment and and this is very different. And while I think the headlines most people do agree that there needs to be relief and that the cost of living, affordability is a real issue. You know, what does that mean as an investor? What does that mean when it comes to your money? It's it's super unclear. And will it get passed? as you mentioned. Um we'll talk a little bit about what to do with all this in a second, but uh another I think big change again just out of the gate is uh the relationship with the Fed. So tensions between the administration and the Fed have really escalated. We know Trump is no fan of J. Pal. He's been, you know, tweeting about him for months now. Um but it really escalated into this public feud with the criminal probe of the Fed chair. uh pal releasing a video in response, lots of central bankers coming um to his defense. Does this situation is it a blow to US credibility? Is it political noise to you or is this this issue around the Fed and the Fed's independence something that we does bear paying attention to? >> Oh, I think it's the major issue. Um, from the perspective of we've long talked about the problem with these central banks is they create money out of thin air and lend it to people and charge interest. And when the beginning's good, everybody's on the dole. That feels great. at the end of Rome when there's debt saturation and people can't you know they have to borrow money to pay interest like you know you could say the governments are doing around the world it becomes a real problem and it exposes kind of the fraud of the foundation of a system like that so it's to be seen Maggie there are a couple paths here one could just be pressuring Powell to either resign early or you know just to get Trump's way to reshuffle the Fed when the time comes up here this year but it could be something deeper. It could be, hey, the Fed is the problem. We have got to get this country and system back to something a little more aligned to sound money. That's how we pave the way for the future of building, you know, an AI tech powerhouse country. And we might be in the early innings of some kind of reset and rethink on how the currency system works. I know that's a big idea and a lot of people will dismiss that as, you know, there's no way that's happening. But we don't know. I don't know. But but I see enough things in motion that it makes me wonder if there are bigger ideas that we, you know, a year from now might be looking back to. So I I put that on people's radar that the the heart of the issue of a lot of what's wrong is just paper money out of thin air and it's created all the wrong incentives and you know it's penalized the average American that doesn't have massive assets because what they have is they have a paycheck that's not keeping up with costs and they've got debt that's now, you know, expensive and they're saturated with it. There's no way for them to consume more and get ahead in this current paradigm. If you're looking for a simple, secure way to invest and own physical gold and silver, visit our sister company, Hard Assets Alliance, at hardassetsalliance.com. That's hardassallalliance.com. Yeah, I think that calls for reform and a rethink of how we're managing our money and the economy, I think that that that they're getting louder. But are politicians the answer? If the White House and Congress run the Fed, are they this are they the gold standard to return us to sound money? I think that's what what worries market participants, right? >> Yeah. I mean, these are all very difficult questions. I I think, you know, in a perfect world, politicians aside, if you came to a system where the Treasury issued money and was backed by some degree of gold, silver, Bitcoin, or some basket, then the faith people have is in what backs the money, in the transparency. It's not in the politicians over here or the Fed or the Treasury over there. It's in a transparent system with something backing um money where you don't have to question who's calling the shots. You you can look through and see the transparency. And we've long talked about, you know, there's apparently plenty of gold on paper in the US, but we haven't had an audit before knock. So, we have no transparency. Right now, it's an insiders game where the Fed calls the shots. there's complete lack of transparency for everybody else. And I think, you know, the problem with that is we're starting to see massive fraud everywhere. It's a theme we've been talking about a long time, Maggie. Um, our prior conversations, we talked about, you know, the end of empires normally take on too much debt and normally that's when you loot the treasury. You know, people get paid off. Everybody's grabbing what they can get. And I think we're kind of at that moment. So we need radical positive change to put something solid in place for not just the ne you not not just the end of this presidency but you know what's the next 2550 year chapter in America look like. >> Yeah and listen there's been a lot of concern about insider trading right now too. So you know if you're if you're calling for change I think you make a really good point about being super specific what you're what you're looking for and that would be transparency and accountability. Uh we saw the bond markets, we saw that we saw all US assets really a little unnerved about this now public and fighting potential criminal probe. Uh is that do we need to be concerned about that larger there being cons US assets not looking as attractive while this fight continues? Does it seem like that response maybe will pull the reigns in on the Trump administration going after the Fed? >> To be determined. >> I mean, normally in yester years, we would have answered yes, this is bad. It's infighting. But the reality is the whole world has these issues, right? The whole world has been governed by central banks printing money out of thin air. They're all saturated in debt. Where are you going to go with your capital? You're going to go to Europe, which is cracking down on free speech and other things. you're gonna put it in uh you know the yuan you're gonna go to Japan with soaring interest rates like there is no second best answer other than returning to hard assets and things that can't be just carelessly printed out of thin air. So, I think this time around, I won't say it's a positive, but I would say to get to a positive change, expect a lot of turmoil on that path, right? We're not going to, this is not going to be easy. Whatever we're going to go through to get on a better path is not going to be easy. It's going to require some arguments and some questioning and some new thinking. And I'm not saying everything the Trump administration is doing is right. I'm just suggesting that we're going to go through major changes and expect it to be like you described this moment where you're overloaded with, you know, information and you have this paralysis. Um, and it's not going to be easy for most investors. >> Yeah. So, so what should investors do? What what is the approach that that you're advising in terms of risk and opportunity? And I think it's important to keep our eye on the opportunity, right? because when there is a lot changing um there is there it is possible to benefit from that um or at least you need to be open to that. So I want to make sure that we're we're addressing both you know we need to quantify the risk or try to get them on the dashboard but we want to look for opportunity too. So um it sounds like you are positive technology. >> Yes. Yes. Now when I say that everything at the right price right so so we're never advocating like chasing the last winner over the last five years. However, I think what I said earlier is we think that race to AI is the race towards global domination. I think that's how nation states and governments are thinking about it. So, we might be in bubble valuations on a number of things. On the other hand, you've now got governments involved saying this is critical for us to win this. And so, the bubble probably goes on. It's not that it it can pop. It's not that it can't pop and we can't go down significantly first, but we have different players in it. It's kind of this analogy when you know the referee of a game becomes a participant and imagine a soccer game and the refs are out there and all of a sudden they trip a player and he doesn't score. Go. It's like you've got the referees involved now. It's we've got to think a little differently about this. So let's start with that. Innovation is here and it's in major areas that are going to reshape society. Yes, it's AI, of course, but it's also defense is changing a lot and defense is kind of blurring lines with space and drones and satellites. All of these industries are kind of merging together because what is defense now? Well, it might be drones. It might be things in space. What is energy? Well, it's what we know as energy and probably in the near term going to be favor natural gas and things that are abundant in the US, but it'll move towards nuclear probably over time it'll move towards solar. And if you believe Elon Musk, uh, you know, he believes tons of solar energy can be harnessed from satellites in space. And not only that, um, in a recent interview I listened to, he's talking about most of the, uh, data center AI compute that Trump's complaining about of driving electricity costs up, can maybe be done on satellites. Well, that's pretty provocative thinking, but imagine that world. And then throw in robotics and think of humanoid robots walking around with um, you know, AI enabled robots. So, I feel like we're on the cusp of this sci-fi world and it's a it's an arm wrestling match between can we get there? Can we see the benefits of some of this revolutionary technology for the positive before the debt collapses before Rome is totally looted? And that is that's the million-dollar question. And so I think for investors again on this thesis of one foot in one foot out the foot in is yes I think you need to invest in some of these areas where there's technological innovation you need to offset that with hedges and cash and make sure you're not you know doubling down on just taking risk but there's another side to investing which is the foot out of the system but I think for the foot in the system that is where some of the opportunity lies. Yeah. And and you mentioned that uh I think given some of the negative headlines and just the tendency of media to kind of focus on the geopolitical flare ups everywhere because they're very important. You can miss some of the amazing advances that are being done. And for anyone who's at the Consumer Electronic Show, there are robots everywhere. In fact, I saw a funny headline. I I boxed a robot and they're not afraid to punch low. And I was like, we're we're at that point. this is no longer just the sort of, you know, we're really seeing incredible advances. Uh, so I think that you're so right to point that out. Uh, in terms of the foot out, um, let's talk about Treasury bonds for a moment. Uh, and when we're looking at this massive debt load, is that something that we're at risk of breaking if it's a make or break year? Not to be too literal about your, you know, you you're calling 2026 that that sort of situation, but is that a risk you worry about or is there still a role for bonds as a diversifier? >> Well, we do worry. I think bonds are in a different place than they've been for most of our lifetimes. And it's because we have such extreme debt levels. It's not only, you know, the pushing 40 trillion of official debt. It's the 100 plus trillion of unofficial debt. Right? These are all just empty promises to pay. It's the hey there is really not a lot of money you know lockbox for social security. It's simply Maggie pays in money and we pay it to somebody else. It's all these things are what support the bond market. So we've got 9 trillion maturing and rolling over this year. And um if things get out of hand we will start worrying more. So I don't think longerterm bonds play a good role in portfolios anymore. I mean we're advocates of short-term treasuries. You need somewhere to put cash, but are you being rewarded to lock up your money and hope that the US or Europe or any of these big nation states, you know, get it right over the next 5 to 10 years? I I don't see it right now. Um, so there are other things you can do, but so it does play a role. We are worried about it, but could rates come down first? Potentially. I mean, we're looking at the 10-year Treasury as a barometer of when people start losing faith and confidence that we can keep rates contained. Now, we still have a lot of ammunition to do so. We could start just printing money and doing QE again and suppressing interest rates on the yield curve. So, until the market tells us it can't be done, it can be done. So I think that the real thing to watch is 10-year rates and if they start breaking out in a significant manner to the upside then we get much more concerned that there's an unwind occurring be between now and then um short-term treasuries are a safe place to park capital and uh you know but I do think investors have to think differently about the role of bonds versus where we've been over the last 50 years. Yeah, and this is an important change that we've been talking about, but one that I think is is it gonna we're gonna keep revisiting it because it's such a big mind shift. So, foot out of the system sounds like what you should think about in terms of hedging. >> Um, do stable is this the year that stable coins emerge as part of the solution? >> Well, I do think it's probably the year stable coins emerge just because of how the legislation is setting up, assuming the Clarity Act and these final pieces come into to motion. But most of the stable coins, the positive is they will in many ways disintermediate the banks. And my understanding at this point is the tech companies of the world, any company could issue a stable coin backed in US largely in US treasuries. So, it's still it's still um the old system, but it gives the access it gives global access to the dollar is how I see it to areas that would prefer to hold the dollar over their local currencies through the stable coin mechanism. So, could it could also um you know prolong the life of the dollar, prolong the life of the current system. I don't really see that as the foot out, but that might be part of the solution of why the current system can go on longer than people think if that's successful. Right? So that's probably in that gray zone. It's not the one foot out of the system like maybe crypto held outside the system is, but it's in that gray zone of the bridge between what can crypto do to help the existing system and you know that is one of the pieces of course. >> Yeah. And and and listen, maybe the bridge that is stable, the stable transition that allows for technology to, as you pointed out before, um the sci-fi boom to take hold before we have some kind of rupture, which you don't want to see. That's not for anyone to see a disruptive end to the system. So, if there's a >> more peaceful or smoother transition, I think a lot of people would be in favor of that. What about crypto? Should we all be exposed to crypto as a as a hedge? And it's an important question given the draw down we saw because this is what continues to be hard for people to move into that area with confidence. >> That's right. Well, the draw downs we saw are no different than what we've had throughout the history of Bitcoin. I mean, um I remember when it was a couple hundred dollars and it fell to 150. You know, we've had big draw downs and I think that's what scares people out of the space. You get a lot of people that are used to equity like volatility that come in and if they see a 30 or 40% drop they think it's dead and when they see it go up five times they want to get in. So it's still a developing speculative market and that's why you know when we talk about it being a hedge that's on a long-term basis. I think right now you've got to buy into the idea that do um blockchain technologies offer a solution and and I think the most two most powerful things they do is they can create transparency like we were talking about there is no transparency in the financial system we could have every cost running through the government be on the blockchain and transparent there's a big benefit to that >> shock horror if that were to happen Brad >> you imagine right and secondly they're decentralized I mean depending on on the crypto but what it means is I see it as a freedom of the people kind of movement. You don't need a centralized bank telling you, you know, you can take your money out or not. You you've got a decentralized network of miners which are actually engaged users auditing things and we've created these ecosystems. So that can be used in a lot of business applications. So, I think it's an exciting future for crypto, but you've got to be careful about the cycles and you've got to know what you own and probably work with someone that can guide you through it. It's not it's not for the beginner, but I do think most people should have a at least a toe in the water of crypto. >> Yeah, I think this is where, you know, active management really helps. Uh, someone described it recently to me as a wild animal. Uh and I think that that's true and there as you say it's early days so it's it's not that intuitive and easy but um something that we're all gonna have to upskill on I think uh let's talk about metals I mean this is again silver at a new high every day you open this uh is what role should this be playing in the portfolio and again talk to me about the price action different than the conversation we just had in crypto which has been going down. Yeah, >> this has been on a tear. If you're not exposed to it, is it too late? Yeah, it's a very difficult uh it's always a difficult question to ask when something's going up tremendously, right? Anything you could have been 20 years ago, Amazon's up 10x, should I buy it now? And there's a little hesitation on timing, but you probably should have bought it. Similar thing for precious metals. They are at their core the cleanest hedge against a reset, a meltdown of the bond system. Why? Because they're nobody else's obligation. They're nobody's promise to pay. A lot of financial assets, every bond is simply a promise to pay. And they are collateral. You know, they are recognized throughout human history as being collateral. So I think for someone new to it, you dollar cost average in you focus on owning physical metal because the other thing that I think we're seeing maybe with silver is that there are a lot of paper contracts sitting on top of a more um select universe of physical silver. And when they get nervous, they want to turn their paper claim into physical metal. And that's part of what may be going on right now as we see these big institutions reposition. There's there's a scramble for physical metal and it's not an infinite supply. So new investors, yes, but be cautious right now, especially a little bit with silver. Do we think things still have a trajectory to go up? Absolutely. Um, but you know, you have to be careful entering when things have moved so much. So, you know, uh, gold and silver, I think, remain core assets. Silver's quite interesting because beyond it just being a monetary metal, we've long known it's an industrial metal, but I think what the world's figuring out is it's a critical metal in new technologies. Um, there's a lot of buzz about Samsung having a new um, >> what do they call it? Like a solid state electrical battery that's much more um, easy to charge. a couple minute charge, 600 mile radius um of driving etc. But it needs a lot of silver. Now, will that come to fruition? I don't I don't know. But those are the kind of things that make silver a very valuable asset. And we're starting to see countries recognize that and part of the theme of uh you know this whole race towards AI is a resource race. So silver plays a role in that. And as recently as January 1st, China has really limited exports on a number of critical metals, rare earths and even silver. And so part of this resource war is alliances and global, you know, redrawing of maps to figure out who's in your club and who's not. And the people in your club are going to help advance this AI cause, but we need the right resources to do it, right? So this might be the first time if we can pull this off without global war in a forth turning unlike World War II where the maps were redrawn based on war where maybe the maps are redrawn based on you know connections of alliances related to AI and resources but the resource play is a major theme and it's one of those themes Maggie that kind of mixes in and blurs the line with AI and robotics and space because we just don't know how much we need and it seems seems every day like we need more energy, more metals, more resources. >> Yeah, absolutely. It seems like it is it is central to everything right now. Um Brett, this is I think a fantastic framework for everyone to operate from. There's clearly a lot at stake. Uh so it it it bears paying attention to, but um but great great sort of frame for all of us. So thank you so much. We appreciate your time today. >> Thanks for having me. >> I think these are um themes that we're going to come back to again and again as well. And remember, if you'd like to dive a little deeper into the trends and make sure you are on the right investment tracker, you fully understand what you should be watching, you can get a free portfolio review from a member of the Windrock team. Just go to wealthy.comfree. Thanks so much everybody. We'll see you again soon.
Brett Rentmeester: 2026 Is a Make-or-Break Year for Markets—The AI Arms Race & Fourth Turning Moment
Summary
When systems are stressed, portfolios get tested. Get a free review from Brett Rentmeester and the Windrock team here: …Transcript
We're at a crisis kind of moment where old systems are failing, met with record debt and in kind of the realities that we can't just keep spending money and printing money out of thin air to get by. We're at these critical junctures. What can we do if things aren't okay or if the old rules change? That's the delicate nature of investing in 2026. Hello and welcome to Wealthy on. I'm Maggie Lake and joining me to discuss some of the trends that are going to impact investing decisions in 2026 is Brett Rentmester, founder and managing director of Windrock Wealth Management. Hey Brett, it's great to see you. >> Happy New Year, Maggie. >> Oh my goodness. Yeah, and it it it has just been action-packed right out of the gate. Um, and I think we know from the first few trading days that 2026 is likely to be a pretty tumultuous year. If if if nothing else, um, we can look in the crystal ball and say that. So, if you're listening and you want to stress test your portfolio and make sure you feel comfortable with your allocations, you can get a free review from a member of the Windrock team. Just head to the link in the description or go to wealthon.comfree. All right, Brett, you have described 2026 as a make orb breakak year. What do you mean by that? >> Yeah. Well, I'd say it it uh continues from our prior discussions in the fall, Maggie, that you know, this culmination of what I'd say the fourth turning type lessons that we're at a crisis kind of moment where old systems are failing met with record debt and in kind of the realities that we can't just keep spending money and printing money out of thin air to get by lead us to this really critical moment in 2026. And I think in our prior interviews we discussed it as maybe having two paths. The more passive but destructive path is the slow and steady Titanic going at the iceberg. Like we can't enact any major change. Takes a little longer but you know it's assured destruction. And the second path which I think we're on now seeing how the year's starting is is massive proactive change. Um trying to avert some of the problems that are right ahead of us. And I think we're seeing that as you said uh right out of the gates. >> Yeah, the headlines have been have been really crazy. Um and that I think that that idea that uh there's going to be massive change and action to try to see whether these issues can be addressed. There's a lot of uncertainty with that which I think is is really difficult if you're an investor. >> Yeah. I think it it forces you to live in two worlds. And we've long had this saying, you know, one foot in the current system, one foot out. You know, really trying to tell the story of yes, we got to invest like everything could be okay, but don't forget we're at these critical junctures. So, what can we do if things aren't okay or if the old rules change? And so, that's the delicate nature of investing in 2026. >> Yeah. And I I think that you bring up a great point because for me I think about it as sort of trying to hold two f time frames in your mind at once, right? You know, if you're a longer term investor, you're used to being able to sort of, you know, think in that way. But now you've got to really be plugged into the present because we have this sort of feeling that things are accelerating and changing while at the same time trying to be smart about long term and not be paralyzed by the time we're in. Right? So let's break down a few elements of this sort of activist forward motion type path that we that we seem to be on um where things are rapidly changing and one of the big issues we've seen is geopolitics right like so did did going into v the US going into Venezuela arresting Maduro on his home her turf did that raise geopolitical the geopolitical risk profile how are you thinking about that >> yeah I mean listen there's a lot of complicated questions right now you you could ask. I think you know putting any single event aside there is one thing that I think is important to throw out as a theme and that is it seems like the world is on a race towards understanding that whoever wins in the AI race might have kind of global dominance. >> So that's creating a lot of behavior and forces that you have that at the same time as this fourth turning and all these potential negatives. you've got, you know, the the race towards AI and this whole um excitement about a sci-fi kind of future and what that might look like, you know, butting heads. And so the race towards AI goes well beyond just knowledge and and technology. It it includes grabbing resources. It includes strategic alliances. And there's a lot of things going on domestically and abroad that that speak to this. So, you know, Venezuela in particular, you I don't know. I I really don't. But it's clear that it's not just Venezuela, right? I mean, we uh um we're threatening Mexico and Iran. We've got discussions out there, at least, you know, in the blog sphere on Greenland and Alberta and, you know, pulling other territories into what we know as the US. And I think these are all related to this feeling that this is a nation state survival moment of a race for resources, a race for AI dominance and this belief that whoever gets there kind of calls the shots. So I think I can't speak exactly to the Maduro situation, but is it part of this broader, you know, picture perhaps? I I think that is spoton and and really important because I think we used to see these things as sort of you know a foreign policy decision but you're right I think to to point out that it's really economically driven and if you see them all as all connected um then I think it's a little bit easier to understand this and especially when you're looking at it through an investment lens. So, another theme that you've surfaced is government intervention, right? And so, this is another one. Right out of the gate in 2026, I feel like we're seeing the sort of um more activist hand of the government. Uh and in the Trump administration, it might look like really testing the powers of the executive branch. But this is a big change from I think this sort of lazair, you know, free market uh approach that we're used to in the US. >> Yeah, it is. And interestingly enough, back to this forth turning uh the book by Neil How um you know the framework of that is every 80 years there's this crisis, the rules change, the old institutions fail and you you build new institutions. The last fourth turning or crisis moment was in fact the Great Depression and World War II. what happened during that period um you know the New Deal uh social security put into place all these interventionalist changes to society so now we sit here and like you said right out of the gate we are seeing um right now I'd call it you know Trump putting his opinion out there um but with seriousness I think he's understanding that the average American is having a really hard time getting by in this bloated cost structure with these failing systems and soaring costs not only of you know education and medicine as we've spoken about in the past but just day-to-day life you know stopping to get you know fast food for your kids is now you know $60 that kind of thing um and so I I think we're seeing in politics amumani in in New York you know we're seeing people kind of crying uncle and saying I need some relief and so what's happened so far I mean literally in the last week he's put out something about limiting institutions from buying single family homes because Wall Street has this great advantage of hey we give you we have basically free money and we that's a better it's a better rate than you can get Maggie trying to buy a home right so it gives them a huge advantage so we've seen that we've seen him try to push this idea of hey we don't have to get health insurance through these giant insurers let's open up marketplaces and make it more dynamic that's still in place we've seen just recently capping interest rates on credit cards we've seen within the last you know couple hours I think as something about electricity. Hey, tech companies that need data centers, we can't let them drive up electricity costs of the populace. So, these are all major things and it's coming, you know, hard and fast. And I think the question is, will they be able to actually push through major change in these areas and um we'll see, but right now it's coming fast and furious. >> Yeah. It and it's created I think this from an investor this is where it's so different. It's made for some interesting bedfellows, right? Right. I mean, I think like sort of, you know, some very left-leaning Democrats and Trump were getting together talking about credit cards in an agency he used to hate. Um, and and you know, there's all this sort of alignment and and this is very different. And while I think the headlines most people do agree that there needs to be relief and that the cost of living, affordability is a real issue. You know, what does that mean as an investor? What does that mean when it comes to your money? It's it's super unclear. And will it get passed? as you mentioned. Um we'll talk a little bit about what to do with all this in a second, but uh another I think big change again just out of the gate is uh the relationship with the Fed. So tensions between the administration and the Fed have really escalated. We know Trump is no fan of J. Pal. He's been, you know, tweeting about him for months now. Um but it really escalated into this public feud with the criminal probe of the Fed chair. uh pal releasing a video in response, lots of central bankers coming um to his defense. Does this situation is it a blow to US credibility? Is it political noise to you or is this this issue around the Fed and the Fed's independence something that we does bear paying attention to? >> Oh, I think it's the major issue. Um, from the perspective of we've long talked about the problem with these central banks is they create money out of thin air and lend it to people and charge interest. And when the beginning's good, everybody's on the dole. That feels great. at the end of Rome when there's debt saturation and people can't you know they have to borrow money to pay interest like you know you could say the governments are doing around the world it becomes a real problem and it exposes kind of the fraud of the foundation of a system like that so it's to be seen Maggie there are a couple paths here one could just be pressuring Powell to either resign early or you know just to get Trump's way to reshuffle the Fed when the time comes up here this year but it could be something deeper. It could be, hey, the Fed is the problem. We have got to get this country and system back to something a little more aligned to sound money. That's how we pave the way for the future of building, you know, an AI tech powerhouse country. And we might be in the early innings of some kind of reset and rethink on how the currency system works. I know that's a big idea and a lot of people will dismiss that as, you know, there's no way that's happening. But we don't know. I don't know. But but I see enough things in motion that it makes me wonder if there are bigger ideas that we, you know, a year from now might be looking back to. So I I put that on people's radar that the the heart of the issue of a lot of what's wrong is just paper money out of thin air and it's created all the wrong incentives and you know it's penalized the average American that doesn't have massive assets because what they have is they have a paycheck that's not keeping up with costs and they've got debt that's now, you know, expensive and they're saturated with it. There's no way for them to consume more and get ahead in this current paradigm. If you're looking for a simple, secure way to invest and own physical gold and silver, visit our sister company, Hard Assets Alliance, at hardassetsalliance.com. That's hardassallalliance.com. Yeah, I think that calls for reform and a rethink of how we're managing our money and the economy, I think that that that they're getting louder. But are politicians the answer? If the White House and Congress run the Fed, are they this are they the gold standard to return us to sound money? I think that's what what worries market participants, right? >> Yeah. I mean, these are all very difficult questions. I I think, you know, in a perfect world, politicians aside, if you came to a system where the Treasury issued money and was backed by some degree of gold, silver, Bitcoin, or some basket, then the faith people have is in what backs the money, in the transparency. It's not in the politicians over here or the Fed or the Treasury over there. It's in a transparent system with something backing um money where you don't have to question who's calling the shots. You you can look through and see the transparency. And we've long talked about, you know, there's apparently plenty of gold on paper in the US, but we haven't had an audit before knock. So, we have no transparency. Right now, it's an insiders game where the Fed calls the shots. there's complete lack of transparency for everybody else. And I think, you know, the problem with that is we're starting to see massive fraud everywhere. It's a theme we've been talking about a long time, Maggie. Um, our prior conversations, we talked about, you know, the end of empires normally take on too much debt and normally that's when you loot the treasury. You know, people get paid off. Everybody's grabbing what they can get. And I think we're kind of at that moment. So we need radical positive change to put something solid in place for not just the ne you not not just the end of this presidency but you know what's the next 2550 year chapter in America look like. >> Yeah and listen there's been a lot of concern about insider trading right now too. So you know if you're if you're calling for change I think you make a really good point about being super specific what you're what you're looking for and that would be transparency and accountability. Uh we saw the bond markets, we saw that we saw all US assets really a little unnerved about this now public and fighting potential criminal probe. Uh is that do we need to be concerned about that larger there being cons US assets not looking as attractive while this fight continues? Does it seem like that response maybe will pull the reigns in on the Trump administration going after the Fed? >> To be determined. >> I mean, normally in yester years, we would have answered yes, this is bad. It's infighting. But the reality is the whole world has these issues, right? The whole world has been governed by central banks printing money out of thin air. They're all saturated in debt. Where are you going to go with your capital? You're going to go to Europe, which is cracking down on free speech and other things. you're gonna put it in uh you know the yuan you're gonna go to Japan with soaring interest rates like there is no second best answer other than returning to hard assets and things that can't be just carelessly printed out of thin air. So, I think this time around, I won't say it's a positive, but I would say to get to a positive change, expect a lot of turmoil on that path, right? We're not going to, this is not going to be easy. Whatever we're going to go through to get on a better path is not going to be easy. It's going to require some arguments and some questioning and some new thinking. And I'm not saying everything the Trump administration is doing is right. I'm just suggesting that we're going to go through major changes and expect it to be like you described this moment where you're overloaded with, you know, information and you have this paralysis. Um, and it's not going to be easy for most investors. >> Yeah. So, so what should investors do? What what is the approach that that you're advising in terms of risk and opportunity? And I think it's important to keep our eye on the opportunity, right? because when there is a lot changing um there is there it is possible to benefit from that um or at least you need to be open to that. So I want to make sure that we're we're addressing both you know we need to quantify the risk or try to get them on the dashboard but we want to look for opportunity too. So um it sounds like you are positive technology. >> Yes. Yes. Now when I say that everything at the right price right so so we're never advocating like chasing the last winner over the last five years. However, I think what I said earlier is we think that race to AI is the race towards global domination. I think that's how nation states and governments are thinking about it. So, we might be in bubble valuations on a number of things. On the other hand, you've now got governments involved saying this is critical for us to win this. And so, the bubble probably goes on. It's not that it it can pop. It's not that it can't pop and we can't go down significantly first, but we have different players in it. It's kind of this analogy when you know the referee of a game becomes a participant and imagine a soccer game and the refs are out there and all of a sudden they trip a player and he doesn't score. Go. It's like you've got the referees involved now. It's we've got to think a little differently about this. So let's start with that. Innovation is here and it's in major areas that are going to reshape society. Yes, it's AI, of course, but it's also defense is changing a lot and defense is kind of blurring lines with space and drones and satellites. All of these industries are kind of merging together because what is defense now? Well, it might be drones. It might be things in space. What is energy? Well, it's what we know as energy and probably in the near term going to be favor natural gas and things that are abundant in the US, but it'll move towards nuclear probably over time it'll move towards solar. And if you believe Elon Musk, uh, you know, he believes tons of solar energy can be harnessed from satellites in space. And not only that, um, in a recent interview I listened to, he's talking about most of the, uh, data center AI compute that Trump's complaining about of driving electricity costs up, can maybe be done on satellites. Well, that's pretty provocative thinking, but imagine that world. And then throw in robotics and think of humanoid robots walking around with um, you know, AI enabled robots. So, I feel like we're on the cusp of this sci-fi world and it's a it's an arm wrestling match between can we get there? Can we see the benefits of some of this revolutionary technology for the positive before the debt collapses before Rome is totally looted? And that is that's the million-dollar question. And so I think for investors again on this thesis of one foot in one foot out the foot in is yes I think you need to invest in some of these areas where there's technological innovation you need to offset that with hedges and cash and make sure you're not you know doubling down on just taking risk but there's another side to investing which is the foot out of the system but I think for the foot in the system that is where some of the opportunity lies. Yeah. And and you mentioned that uh I think given some of the negative headlines and just the tendency of media to kind of focus on the geopolitical flare ups everywhere because they're very important. You can miss some of the amazing advances that are being done. And for anyone who's at the Consumer Electronic Show, there are robots everywhere. In fact, I saw a funny headline. I I boxed a robot and they're not afraid to punch low. And I was like, we're we're at that point. this is no longer just the sort of, you know, we're really seeing incredible advances. Uh, so I think that you're so right to point that out. Uh, in terms of the foot out, um, let's talk about Treasury bonds for a moment. Uh, and when we're looking at this massive debt load, is that something that we're at risk of breaking if it's a make or break year? Not to be too literal about your, you know, you you're calling 2026 that that sort of situation, but is that a risk you worry about or is there still a role for bonds as a diversifier? >> Well, we do worry. I think bonds are in a different place than they've been for most of our lifetimes. And it's because we have such extreme debt levels. It's not only, you know, the pushing 40 trillion of official debt. It's the 100 plus trillion of unofficial debt. Right? These are all just empty promises to pay. It's the hey there is really not a lot of money you know lockbox for social security. It's simply Maggie pays in money and we pay it to somebody else. It's all these things are what support the bond market. So we've got 9 trillion maturing and rolling over this year. And um if things get out of hand we will start worrying more. So I don't think longerterm bonds play a good role in portfolios anymore. I mean we're advocates of short-term treasuries. You need somewhere to put cash, but are you being rewarded to lock up your money and hope that the US or Europe or any of these big nation states, you know, get it right over the next 5 to 10 years? I I don't see it right now. Um, so there are other things you can do, but so it does play a role. We are worried about it, but could rates come down first? Potentially. I mean, we're looking at the 10-year Treasury as a barometer of when people start losing faith and confidence that we can keep rates contained. Now, we still have a lot of ammunition to do so. We could start just printing money and doing QE again and suppressing interest rates on the yield curve. So, until the market tells us it can't be done, it can be done. So I think that the real thing to watch is 10-year rates and if they start breaking out in a significant manner to the upside then we get much more concerned that there's an unwind occurring be between now and then um short-term treasuries are a safe place to park capital and uh you know but I do think investors have to think differently about the role of bonds versus where we've been over the last 50 years. Yeah, and this is an important change that we've been talking about, but one that I think is is it gonna we're gonna keep revisiting it because it's such a big mind shift. So, foot out of the system sounds like what you should think about in terms of hedging. >> Um, do stable is this the year that stable coins emerge as part of the solution? >> Well, I do think it's probably the year stable coins emerge just because of how the legislation is setting up, assuming the Clarity Act and these final pieces come into to motion. But most of the stable coins, the positive is they will in many ways disintermediate the banks. And my understanding at this point is the tech companies of the world, any company could issue a stable coin backed in US largely in US treasuries. So, it's still it's still um the old system, but it gives the access it gives global access to the dollar is how I see it to areas that would prefer to hold the dollar over their local currencies through the stable coin mechanism. So, could it could also um you know prolong the life of the dollar, prolong the life of the current system. I don't really see that as the foot out, but that might be part of the solution of why the current system can go on longer than people think if that's successful. Right? So that's probably in that gray zone. It's not the one foot out of the system like maybe crypto held outside the system is, but it's in that gray zone of the bridge between what can crypto do to help the existing system and you know that is one of the pieces of course. >> Yeah. And and and listen, maybe the bridge that is stable, the stable transition that allows for technology to, as you pointed out before, um the sci-fi boom to take hold before we have some kind of rupture, which you don't want to see. That's not for anyone to see a disruptive end to the system. So, if there's a >> more peaceful or smoother transition, I think a lot of people would be in favor of that. What about crypto? Should we all be exposed to crypto as a as a hedge? And it's an important question given the draw down we saw because this is what continues to be hard for people to move into that area with confidence. >> That's right. Well, the draw downs we saw are no different than what we've had throughout the history of Bitcoin. I mean, um I remember when it was a couple hundred dollars and it fell to 150. You know, we've had big draw downs and I think that's what scares people out of the space. You get a lot of people that are used to equity like volatility that come in and if they see a 30 or 40% drop they think it's dead and when they see it go up five times they want to get in. So it's still a developing speculative market and that's why you know when we talk about it being a hedge that's on a long-term basis. I think right now you've got to buy into the idea that do um blockchain technologies offer a solution and and I think the most two most powerful things they do is they can create transparency like we were talking about there is no transparency in the financial system we could have every cost running through the government be on the blockchain and transparent there's a big benefit to that >> shock horror if that were to happen Brad >> you imagine right and secondly they're decentralized I mean depending on on the crypto but what it means is I see it as a freedom of the people kind of movement. You don't need a centralized bank telling you, you know, you can take your money out or not. You you've got a decentralized network of miners which are actually engaged users auditing things and we've created these ecosystems. So that can be used in a lot of business applications. So, I think it's an exciting future for crypto, but you've got to be careful about the cycles and you've got to know what you own and probably work with someone that can guide you through it. It's not it's not for the beginner, but I do think most people should have a at least a toe in the water of crypto. >> Yeah, I think this is where, you know, active management really helps. Uh, someone described it recently to me as a wild animal. Uh and I think that that's true and there as you say it's early days so it's it's not that intuitive and easy but um something that we're all gonna have to upskill on I think uh let's talk about metals I mean this is again silver at a new high every day you open this uh is what role should this be playing in the portfolio and again talk to me about the price action different than the conversation we just had in crypto which has been going down. Yeah, >> this has been on a tear. If you're not exposed to it, is it too late? Yeah, it's a very difficult uh it's always a difficult question to ask when something's going up tremendously, right? Anything you could have been 20 years ago, Amazon's up 10x, should I buy it now? And there's a little hesitation on timing, but you probably should have bought it. Similar thing for precious metals. They are at their core the cleanest hedge against a reset, a meltdown of the bond system. Why? Because they're nobody else's obligation. They're nobody's promise to pay. A lot of financial assets, every bond is simply a promise to pay. And they are collateral. You know, they are recognized throughout human history as being collateral. So I think for someone new to it, you dollar cost average in you focus on owning physical metal because the other thing that I think we're seeing maybe with silver is that there are a lot of paper contracts sitting on top of a more um select universe of physical silver. And when they get nervous, they want to turn their paper claim into physical metal. And that's part of what may be going on right now as we see these big institutions reposition. There's there's a scramble for physical metal and it's not an infinite supply. So new investors, yes, but be cautious right now, especially a little bit with silver. Do we think things still have a trajectory to go up? Absolutely. Um, but you know, you have to be careful entering when things have moved so much. So, you know, uh, gold and silver, I think, remain core assets. Silver's quite interesting because beyond it just being a monetary metal, we've long known it's an industrial metal, but I think what the world's figuring out is it's a critical metal in new technologies. Um, there's a lot of buzz about Samsung having a new um, >> what do they call it? Like a solid state electrical battery that's much more um, easy to charge. a couple minute charge, 600 mile radius um of driving etc. But it needs a lot of silver. Now, will that come to fruition? I don't I don't know. But those are the kind of things that make silver a very valuable asset. And we're starting to see countries recognize that and part of the theme of uh you know this whole race towards AI is a resource race. So silver plays a role in that. And as recently as January 1st, China has really limited exports on a number of critical metals, rare earths and even silver. And so part of this resource war is alliances and global, you know, redrawing of maps to figure out who's in your club and who's not. And the people in your club are going to help advance this AI cause, but we need the right resources to do it, right? So this might be the first time if we can pull this off without global war in a forth turning unlike World War II where the maps were redrawn based on war where maybe the maps are redrawn based on you know connections of alliances related to AI and resources but the resource play is a major theme and it's one of those themes Maggie that kind of mixes in and blurs the line with AI and robotics and space because we just don't know how much we need and it seems seems every day like we need more energy, more metals, more resources. >> Yeah, absolutely. It seems like it is it is central to everything right now. Um Brett, this is I think a fantastic framework for everyone to operate from. There's clearly a lot at stake. Uh so it it it bears paying attention to, but um but great great sort of frame for all of us. So thank you so much. We appreciate your time today. >> Thanks for having me. >> I think these are um themes that we're going to come back to again and again as well. And remember, if you'd like to dive a little deeper into the trends and make sure you are on the right investment tracker, you fully understand what you should be watching, you can get a free portfolio review from a member of the Windrock team. Just go to wealthy.comfree. Thanks so much everybody. We'll see you again soon.