'Crazy Turmoil' For 2026; Markets Sell Off As 'Something Big Is Coming' | Chris Vermeulen
Summary
Precious Metals: Strongly bullish view into 2026 with expectation of significant upside, particularly in silver due to higher beta and smaller market depth.
Gold vs. Silver: Gold led the move earlier, while silver is now catching up; silver’s volatility implies 3-4 day follow-through after big down days and potential 40-50% upside before a cycle peak.
Market Outlook: Near-term selloff seen as a shakeout within an uptrend; seasonality supports a Santa Claus Rally potentially driving indices to new highs.
Cyclical Risk: Long-term cycle analysis points to a likely 2026 peak with potential for a multi-year downturn thereafter, suggesting the need for a proactive game plan.
Bitcoin: Bearish stance with a downtrend and potential target near 67,000; not acting as “digital gold” and better to avoid or treat any bounce as a quick trade.
Fed Policy: Despite rate cuts and renewed T-bill purchases, the guest prioritizes price action over Fed commentary for trading decisions.
Tech/AI Volatility: AI space sentiment was dented by Oracle (ORCL) and Broadcom (AVGO) news; guest avoids pair trades or shorting tech, viewing the drop as a reset.
Strategy: Emphasis on trend-following, avoiding hedges/pair trades in metals, and rotating across asset classes based on what’s in favor.
Transcript
I think 2026 is going to be a very exciting year. I think it's going to be huge for precious metals. I think there's huge upside potential in the next month or two still for metals to go much higher. I also think the equities markets are going to go into some crazy turmoil. All the analysis that I've always shared with you David is just is has been saying like something big is coming, something bad is coming. The thing is we don't know when. They're not letting the train stop. That's what they're doing with all these programs. They're like, "We cannot let this train stop because it'll be a bloodbath in the markets, in real estate, and everything." I >> It's another big down day for the stock markets. The S&P and NASDAQ are both pulling back from their weekly uh gains here. So, it's had a couple of days of a good streak. And now the S&P is down more than 1.1%. The NASDAQ composite declined 1.6% intraday. Christopher Mullen, chief market strategist at the technical traders.com, is back with us to tell us what's going on and what's next. And spoiler alert, he thinks that 2026 is going to be a major year. We'll find out in which direction. Chris, welcome back. Hey, thanks for having me, David. Always a pleasure. Every time you're back, something big is happening. Earlier this week, uh the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points. But more importantly, because everybody tele that was well telegraphed, everybody expected that. But more importantly, the Fed announced that they would resume buying treasuries uh later this month. Actually, starting today and markets took that as very good news. Uh I could show you a little clip of that later, but let's talk about what's going on today. it seemed like that euphoria was short-lived because literally 2 days after that we're getting a pretty significant draw down in and in and in and risk and um I just I'm asking uh if this is a temporary rotation into something else the beginning of something broader or perhaps uh it's just new specific uh related to tech which is driving a lot of the selloff today. So I'll let you comment on what's going on presently. >> Sure. Yeah, there's a lot there to unpack. So, you know, in a nutshell, over the the last just the last three sessions alone, we had the Fed come out with a quarter basis rate cut, which shook the markets up. We saw some pretty good volume and volatility during that day. Then we had Oracle come out with not the most exciting uh news for the AI bubble. And then, of course, today we had Broadcom come out. And so, the market is I think it's a little exhausted and it's had a couple hits of bad news for the AI space. And so, we're seeing that pull back. Now if we look at the charts, there's a lot going on which is kind of exciting when when we look at the charts. I think the key here, let's look at the daily chart of the QQQ on the right hand side. Now typically the market has had a very nice run up. The thing is it hasn't had a pullback or a whole lot of a pause in terms of resetting the price. And what happens is when the price is a big run, it usually has to try and shake the market out before it goes higher. Now we're starting to see that today. We got a nice big drop on on the daily chart. So, the news is catching up. Finally, we're starting to see everybody who's kind of moved in. Now, the market is trying to scare them out and run them out. And if we look at the 30inut chart on the lefth hand side here, we get a really good view of all these layers that this market is going to want to break. And I was telling subscribers and followers the other day, this big run up underneath each of these little lows through here, there are going to be a set of traders with with stops set. So, as the market starts to pull back, it's going to start to run those stops. And we talked about the market coming all the way back down to this big gap here that we're probably going to want to see this market come down trigger all of these stops. So short-term traders who are way too zoomed in, they panic out. And we're starting to see that today. We're getting into these green bars telling us the market is dropping very quickly. We're starting to see panic selling pick up. And this is typically what happens. Look, look what happens in the in the NASDAQ after we have an extended run up. You have a sharp drop that spooks the market up. We have a big move up, then it has another quick drop, another big move up, another drop. So, a sharp drop is how the market bucks you off it, right? In a bull market, it the bull tries to buck you off. And it doesn't take much because people get nervous. They get overpositioned and they don't like price to go against them. And so, it usually just takes one or two red bars and people will panic and eject out of the trades and then it goes higher. Now, I I think seasonalitywise, we're in favor for for higher pricing. If we look at the seasonality chart of the S&P 500, we're right in the middle of December here. We should literally see this market find a bottom and then start to run higher into the end of the year. So to me, this pullback is the market digesting a couple pieces of news and really just now everybody's quickly flipped to to this fear mode, panic, and it's just creating this kind of quick waterfall sell-off and this drop. So, uh, you know, if the market closes low today on a Friday, we might see a gap lower on Monday, but then I think it could get bought up. I think it'll be an exhaustion move down on Monday and then we could go into the end of year rally to potentially all-time highs. >> When you look at a chart like this, um, I'll talk about the all-time high in just a second. So, here's my screen and I'm showing the heat map for today. And like I mentioned earlier, primarily a techdriven sell-off. And we know that tech is the primary sector in both the S&P and of course the NASDAQ. But uh you're looking at this, would you make a pair trade and let's say long something else and short tech right now? Because it just looks like the rest of the market's holding up. Okay. Well, um I I think I think precious metals is kind of the safe play now. Today is a broad market selloff. We're pretty much seeing everything across the board move down. We're seeing uh pretty much most sectors. We're seeing precious metals, energy, stocks, large cap, small cap, micro cap, everything is kind of selling off. So, it's kind of just, you know, today's there isn't a safe haven really today. I think if you were to uh, you know, if a gun was to your head, what's what's the best play here, it's probably precious metals. I think it's um I always like gold because it's slower, it's more stable. I I find it has more patterns that play out and it has a strong pattern. But I mean, yeah, as a pair trade, I definitely wouldn't bet against the market here. I do think this is just a sell-off. I think I think the play here is just to let this market stabilize. Uh the trend is still holding up. So, I think you just want to stick with this. This is just a one-day pullback. It doesn't mean you throw everything out, you know, out the window, which so many people do. It doesn't take much to spook people. >> It doesn't take much to move the markets either. traders are watching this market and trying to decide when and how things are going to happen the way they do. When you have major events like the FOMC where perhaps Trump announcing tariffs or um something of that sort, you can put a finger on it and say this is what caused a sell-off or this is what's caused a rally and I'm looking at the news and not a lot's going on today. So, how do you describe this kind of action? Do markets do people just decide and wake up on a Friday and say, you know what, we're going to take profits and that's that that's what happens. like what how do you >> It could be it could be part of it. Um I mean there was a lot of news that came out today. The the charts showed some pretty big volatility over the past two days with both the Oracle and and um Broadcom news kind of playing over and you know a lot of things are up. Everything's at resistance or near all-time highs. Everything's had a really nice run. a little bit of a pause or pullback here is, you know, is warranted and and that could totally mean on a Friday you're like, you know what, I've got my account is up nicely this week. I think I'm going to sell some of my positions and have a great weekend. And the problem is I think a lot of people do feel that way at times. And then, of course, it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of some people start taking profits, a couple support levels, minor ones are broken, which turns into more people panicking, and then the the market really drops and picks up speed. And that's what we're seeing today. I feel like I don't feel like it's panic selling. We're actually not seeing anything any strong selling. All we're seeing is just short-term traders kind of ejecting out and and the really emotional players just kind of shaking up here. >> Your panic indicators aren't flashing right now. >> They're not spiking to a level that's telling us people are running for the door. It's starting to move up a little bit, but it's not at a threshold where people are are panicking. I what I think would happen is the market opens lower on Monday because this fear if the market closes down on a Friday, it gives people the whole weekend to ruminate and have these stories. Oh my gosh, I got to sell. Metals are topping, silver reverse, stocks are falling, and they all exit at the open on Monday for the first half an hour or so and we see a drop. And I think that's when we probably see my panic selling indicators spike. And of course, right when it spikes and people bail out at the open, the market will probably put in a sharp reversal and and start to rally to the end of the year. That's that's what I think is going to happen. I I always in favor with the underlying trend. The long-term trend is up. The short-term trend is still up. >> And uh you got to just expect buyers will step back in um once they feel like the fair value or the markets kind of reset. >> Before we jump back into the video, let's talk about something most people ignore, but is very important. Your online privacy. Your personal information isn't just sitting on your phone or email. It's being scraped, bought, and sold by data broker sites every day online without your permission. Our sponsor today, Delete Me, helps you take that control back. They scan the web for your exposed information, send you regular privacy reports, and remove your data from hundreds of broker sites so it can't be used against you. And in their latest report, they reviewed over 325 listings to see if any data broker had my personal information. and they continue to check every week to make sure it stays off. Go to jointdeiteme.com/davidlin and use promo code davidin at checkout or scan the QR code here on the screen. Get 20% off on all US plans. Take control of your privacy today. Speaking of the longerterm trend and even the shorterterm trend, don't fight the Fed seems to be the theme of 2025 and perhaps into 2026. I'll let you comment on that. Take a listen to what Jerome Powell was uh talking about in reserve in terms of reserve management purchases. This is what I mentioned earlier in the interview. Take a listen. Accordingly, at today's meeting, the committee decided to initiate purchases of shorter term Treasury securities, mainly Treasury bills, for the sole purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time. Such increases in our securities holdings ensure that the federal funds rate remains within its target range and are necessary because the growth of the economy leads to rising demand over time for our liabilities. >> Okay, there you go. He's going to buy short-term treasuries in the order of $40 billion in the first month, he later says. And uh markets price that in, I guess, on Wednesday, and today was a selloff. We'll see what happens when it actually starts taking into effect. What do you do to this with this information, Chris? >> I I don't do a whole lot with it. I mean, I really just follow the overall price action. Um, the Fed's got their reasons and their their whole strategy of what they do, and I've never really let it alter any of my trades. If the markets are are going higher, if the Fed speaks and things pull back, usually the market gets bought back up if we're in a if we're in a uptrend. So, I don't I don't worry about what they say or do. That's a short-term news-driven trader action and I I don't really take part of that. Yes, it may affect the economy in a bigger way, but again, the stock market leads the economy. The stock market is usually leading in everything. It tops first, it bottoms first. It usually tends to know the news before it happens. And when the news comes out, it actually sells into the news or buys into the news depending on what side the news comes out. So, I I don't get caught up in it. I think it's um to me it's a waste of time because it doesn't help me fine-tune my trades in any way. >> Well, you're about to show us um a long-term cycles chart, which is a very interesting chart. And I'm just wondering, let's suppose the cycle tells you that this year where this current part of the cycle was going to be a down cycle or down year or bare market and then you've got the news coming out that the Fed is about to re-engage QE in some form. Doesn't that kind of throw the cycle off if if it's maybe a little bit counter to each other? I I'll let you comment on that. >> Uh yeah, I mean obviously that could that could hold the markets and juice kick the can down the road even further. Um anything anything is possible. There's always there there's always a counter to every theory and every strategy and every cycle that something could happen and could play it out. Um, I do believe that when the economy does turn, and we we've seen this over and over again, when when the stock market and the economy slow down and and start to head lower, it doesn't matter what the Fed does in a lot of cases, they they're cutting rates. They're trying to do stuff. When everybody's selling and scared to spend money and they don't want to hire people because business is slowing, they can't stop that train. I don't believe now. They're they're not letting the train stop. That's what they're doing with all these programs. They're like, "We cannot let this train stop because it'll be a bloodbath in the markets, in real estate, and everything." I think so. They don't want it to come to an end. And yes, I think you're right, David. I think they could try to hold it up and maybe delay it even further. Eventually, there's going to be a big market reset and the momentum worldwide will be so big, you know, one country is not going to stop it. Uh, when everybody just tightens up and they're like, I don't know what to do. Like, I just I don't want to spend money. I don't want to expand. I don't want to do this or do that. And a lot of people will start to sell stuff. So, I mean, we just have to follow price. I think 2026 is going to be a very exciting year. I think it's going to be huge for precious metals. I think there's huge upside potential in the next month or two still for metals to go much higher. I also think the equities markets are going to go into some crazy turmoil. But if the Fed does juice things up, well, they might push the stock market higher with precious metals still for another year. Um, we just don't know. And that's why it's better to follow trends than try to predict cycles or what the Fed is doing and stuff like that. Just just follow price. That's the key. >> Well, you've got here a cycles chart. Speaking of cycles, tell us what we're looking at. >> Yeah, so this is Samuel Benner. Uh this is a guy in the 1800s. He was a farmer. He lost his shirt um well financially and he ended up doing a lot of research and found multiple cycles that come into play. Long story short, there's three levels and layers to this. A this top layer is like maximum kind of maximum peaks. So for example in in 1999 there was a major cycle peak plus a minor cycle peak which we led into the tech bubble. 2007 or 2008 financial crisis was another minor peak and then we've we struggled with 2019. There was a double peak which was COVID. There was another type of panic in the market that created a sell-off. The next cycle high is this coming year 2026. And all the analysis that I've always shared with you, David, is just is has been saying like something big is coming, something bad is coming. The thing is we don't know when. The markets can drag things out much longer than you anticipate. The key is to make sure you've got a game plan. This cycle is saying we could have weakness at some point in 2026. Maybe it drags over to 2027. Maybe maybe the markets still hold up next year with some QE. I'm not sure. But you need to be prepared because when this does happen, you know, we could see a weakness all the way down to 2032. So this a long ways away. It's a long time to be losing money. You know, having businesses downturn, but this is all an opportunity. when the markets do correct, you know, 2032 or when my analysis shows that the markets are turning and things are starting to strengthen, man, if you can survive a market crash and a reset and you have your capital and you can you can invest it in ways that will make you wealthier so fast than anything else, you can just move into multiple things. So, that's what this cycle plays into. It's it's a very big big analysis. It's not always accurate. It's hasn't nailed everything. It's just interesting because it falls in line with the most recent cycles that we've we've experienced as traders and investors and the next one happens to be starting in like, you know, 18 days from now. That year starts the ticker the timers going for this cycle to find a top in the uh in the coming year. >> Let's overlay maybe this chart. I'm just I'm just thinking about this. maybe overlay this with an actual price chart and then we can talk about indicators you're looking at for rollover because what that's showing you is a local top sometime in 2026 if >> if markets follow this chart. >> Yeah. >> And then at some point in 2026 markets start rolling over and uh back to the age question. How do you tell when the market starting to roll over if it's a one day correction? >> Uh yeah well you got to you got to follow things on multiple time frames. I mean, we can go and look at a long-term investing chart here of the weekly chart of the S&P 500. And so, if we go back to as far as this this chart loads, this this type of analysis tells us, you know, when we're finding a major bare market top, when there's a a new bull market starting, and it it gives us these windows where these kind of colored arrows are of when to be protect protective of ourselves because you just never know when one of these big resets are coming. So, we we'll be looking at the weekly chart, the long-term investment signal, saying, "Okay, are we coming into a 2007 market top? Do we have the divergences? Do we have price starting to break down?" Um, all of this stuff. And so it's hard to identify a major bare market because the reality is you don't know, for example, that this is a full-on bare market until it really puts in has a, you know, 20 plus% drop and then it finds stability and then it breaks down from there and then goes into like the 30 40 50 plus percent correction. So that's that's what we need to see. Like for example, if we look at 2022, the stock market pulled back, you know, 20 plus% and then it kind of went into this consolidation. Now, if if this broke down and broke this low, then we would probably be starting a massive bare market, a multi-year bare market, but it it ended up carving out a bottom. It ended up generating a new strong trend to the upside and we're back into a trend. So for us to know when this big we're going to have to see like price break down and have a correction and then eventually kind of break another significant low and then from there it can go into a big waterfall. So we're going to have to look at it from different time frames. We'll probably see the stock market sell off in a big way and we'll probably see precious metals initially have a very big rally and move higher. And you and I have covered this before the the comparison chart of 2007. And if you take a look at the chart on on the left here, you know, the stock market was trading at all-time highs. Gold was pushing to all-time highs. It's right where we are right now in in real time. Similar type of setup. Both stocks and metals stocks and metals rallied together for the last couple of years. Um, what I'm looking for eventually is the stock market to break down and the money is going to come out of the stock market and it's going to shoot and get pushed into the precious metal space. So when we see this, David, when we see stocks crash and all that money comes out of stocks and people push it into the precious metal space where gold could rally another 15 to 20% from here, silver could rally another 50 to 60% from here. Same with platinum, same with platium. That to me is going to be like, okay, now it is like th this feels like the end. The music has stopped for the stock market. And eventually the stock market will put in some type of pause. And then when it breaks those lows, that's when we go into like a stage four decline and the bottom falls out and there's mass devastation for businesses and bankruptcies and gold will pull back with that. So that that's what I'm looking for is these this extreme divergence where metals shoot higher, everybody loves it and people start moving out of gold. That to me will be like one of the last indicators saying, "Hey, we only have a couple months left and we could be entering a big reset and a recession in the economy, global economy." Yeah, that's the key because when when stocks enter a huge bare market, typically gold and silver fall with it initially at least. Okay. The Can you pull up a gold and silver chart? Can you maybe overlay gold and silver together? >> And I just want to show the audience here how they've been moving relative to each other. There's a bit of divergence going on within the precious metal space itself, not just between gold and stocks. So, you'll notice that um while you're setting that up, I'll just explain what's going on. You'll notice that gold has been flat, if not up, in the last month or so. Over the last 3 months, gold is actually slightly down by the order of I think one or one or 2%. And silver is a completely different story. Silver is actually up by a lot. So yeah, gold peaked around October 20th, 4374, and we're still right under 4,300 right now. So it's slightly down in the last month and a half. >> Silver has been up uh let me just pull up the exact number. >> There we go. >> Yeah. >> So that doesn't typically happen. They move in the same direction, but then flat for one and then up for another is not the same direction. So what do you make of this divergence? >> Yeah. So the the precious metal space, gold has been on fire for for a long time. Uh it has been kind of while silver traded sideways for you know a year, gold actually just kept moving higher. So gold is had a lot of attention. Enough momentum got into gold that people then eventually bled over into silver. A lot of times I find for major trends gold moves first and then silver's a little delayed but then silver will play catch-up on the back end which is what it's doing right now. And so what I think is I think gold got the attention, it got the love, and then suddenly gold's having a pullback and a pause, but now everybody is on high alert that precious metals are a hot sector because we're seeing miners breaking out. We've got silver, platinum, and platium. Everything is taking part, not just gold. And so I think the reason we see silver moving up is because of simply people want to make more money. Silver moves faster. They're like, "Okay, well if precious metals are going higher, give me the fastest moving one you got." silver happens to be it. Silver al also happens to be a much smaller market, I think, than gold. So, it doesn't take a whole lot of more money to go into that space to to make it go even higher. And so, silver is just getting juiced right here because money's moving into it and saying, you know what, forget slow gold right now. I'm going to go into silver. And so, silver is getting the attention. And it's, you know, today, I think you and I are speaking, it's down about 4% alone. >> Yeah, >> that's typical for silver in this type of environment. We got big up days up four or 5%. Other days it'll be down three or 5%. Uh that's just the nature of that beast because it's a tiny market. It moves fast, but it's the one. It's the favored one right now. People always gravitate to where can you get the most leverage, make the most money. Silver's always been that. That's why there's silver stackers dedicated. They're like silver is going to go to a hundred or, you know, $500 and that's what people are stacking for is when the the system breaks and silver goes ballistic. Um, and so yeah, silver just becomes that play later in the stages. That that to me is telling me we're getting closer to a major top in the precious metal space. I still think there's another 40 50% or more for silver to the upside, but it's telling me now people have shifted from boring gold to be more secure. Now they're they're willing to put on more risk. And that's that's a little bit of a sign that it's it's a m starting to mature this trade. If you look at how silver has performed over the last two months, the sell-offs have been pretty consistent in what follows in terms of uh the magnitude of the sell-off and then what follows after that. So, every time silver has fallen by more than four to 5% in a single day intraday basis, the sell-off continues for a few more trading sessions before the sell-off um starts to uh decrease in magnitude and the price stabilizes, consolidates for a while, then it goes back up. It's been pretty consistent. So, it was it's funny because I had had a guest on yesterday and I was telling him uh this was before today's big move, of course. And I was telling him I would maybe make a pair trade short silver and uh long gold. Uh I don't think that's worked out because both of them are down today. But my point my point was that silver looks uh a bit more overbought relative to gold on a technical basis. And um so I just like to you to comment on both of those points that I made. the first uh which is that um a four or 5% sell off in silver in one day is usually has usually been followed by further selloff. So maybe evaluate that. And then second, does it look a little bit too overbought even at current levels relative to gold? >> Okay. Yeah. So silver is a fast it's fast moving. Fastmoving means increased volatility. Increased volatility means more emotional traders involved, right? So when silver's had a big run like it has had here, it's had a beautiful popping and run, it it's very quick and easy for it to pull back and to shake people out and and generally what I see is there's usually a 3 to 4 day window. So you have a down day like today, a four or 5% down day and that reres havoc and and echoes through the people who are holding silver who are who are potentially going to sell if it moves down too much. the people who are open to selling because they're worried they're very short-term, they're going to sell and it usually takes about 3 to 4 days. So, silver sells off. Well, there's going to be, you know, the working class. They come home tonight, they get into they they come home, they sit down, they look at the markets because they're working all day and they're like, "Holy crap, silver sold off today." Well, short-term traders already got out today. Like, we're talking day traders, momentum traders. But then they're going to see it at night and they're going to be like, "Well, on Monday I'm getting out because it looks like it's topped." It does have a little bit of an exhaustion pattern. It ran higher this morning and is closing below yesterday's low, which is not it. That to me alone is saying we're probably going to see a few more days of downward price. So, I think you've nailed that part, David. And then of course it there's people on the other side of the world that eventually see this move and then they got to take action for their first day and then they see it and the next day other people get out. So, there's different time frames of people investors who are going to panic out. So I think when we see a sharp move, especially in a volatile asset, it sparks emotions and then it takes about 3 or 4 days for that fear to finally work itself out. Usually after a big down day, there might be a little bit of a pause or bounce and that's simply bargain hunter stepping in saying, "Oh yeah, it's way sold off way too quick." But usually that that overall drip of selling pressure from all the different layers of investors from around the world will carry over and drag it down a little bit more. Your other question, David, I'm trying to think of what it was. you were talking about um >> gold relative to silver uh well vice versa. Silver relative to gold uh whether or not silver just looks really overbought compared to gold. >> I think you covered some of that already. >> Yeah. And you're you're kind of talking about the pair trade. So I'm not a fan of hedging. I I I used to hedge years and years ago and I realized hedging costs money and then a lot of times it's really hard to time the markets. So you put a hedge on and then you realize the the the asset you hold you were holding and hoping was going to go higher. you put a hedge on to protect it, your asset keeps going higher and then your hedge just costs you money. So to me, I feel like a pair trade is kind of like a hedge. I'm like, and and my other my other theory is if the precious metal space is going down, if silver is going down, gold's probably going down. If the stock market's going down or say technology, I'm not going to pair it with another sector because I look at the precious metal space as one trade. They generally move up and down together. And same with the stock market. So, I stay away from pairing. Stay away from hedging. It's just an expense. You're then trying to time some move you think is happening. And I think you're better to just either ride out the volatility and not put the hedges on uh or exit it and get back in once you're confirmed that it's starting another uptrend. >> Fair enough. Let's finally move on to Bitcoin now. Chris, $89,000 I believe is the latest uh price on my screen and it's just been consolidating around 90,000 for quite some time and um maybe you can help us decide uh how it's going to perform going forward because it just looks like it's waiting for a breakout. So I'll let you I'll let you >> break out or a breakdown. >> Break out. Break down. Uh break to some place. Chris, >> right on. Yeah. So, if we take a look at the charts to me, well, first of all, the trend is clearly down. Series of lower highs, lower lows. It had a a fairly significant topping phase through here. Then you could argue there's another kind of topping phase through here. So, no matter how you call it, you know, it's definitely put in a top and now it's in a downtrend. To me, this looks like it is begging to break to the downside. The trend is down. So, most likely sellers are still selling. They're still scared. This is pointing to lower pricing. And and if we took the most conservative price target on here using a Fibonacci extension here, we can just take the the power of this selloff, the strength of this bounce, and that's telling us where we should go, which is around 67,000 per Bitcoin, which is definitely going to spark some serious panic selling because we're going to break this low over here. If we break this low, there's going to be a ton of people saying they're going to jump ship because this is a significant um significant support level. And then you could argue in the big picture, this is a giant maybe head and shoulders pattern that we have to zoom way out on this chart because once we break this low and come down into here, it's going to have some big bounce. It naturally does. And then we're going to have this potentially neckline which breaks down and you know we could see much lower Bitcoin pricing. Right now just though to keep it really simple if you want to get an idea of what to expect over the next month I would say this move right here is very similar to this move right here or this move. And you know, if we zoom in on this on this chart, we had Bitcoin, which I think IBIT actually shows it better because it shows all regular trading hours. Um, we had we had this this huge gap to the upside, then a massive gap to the downside. Uh, during regular trading hours, this we had the same thing, a huge gap up and a sell-off, and then a huge gap down. And we're just kind of in this hive volatility phase. I like to track regular trading hours. That's why I moved to the ETF because regular trading hours is gives us the psychology and the trades of the average investor who trades within the window of 9:30 and 4 and that's where the majority of volume is and that's the analysis that I I like to focus on because that's where the volume is. So either way I do think this this is struggling. I think we're going to see it go lower. It is still tied to the stock market to some regard. So, if the stock market goes into a Santa Claus rally, then we might actually find some support and it might drift higher. But I would not be long Bitcoin here. I think Bitcoin, this is a bounce within a downtrend. It may bounce higher, but it the odds are it's going to end up lower in due time. So, if if you do trade it to the long side, it should be a quick trade. You get in, catch a holiday bounce if it's got it in it, and then move move aside and wait to see what happens from there. Would you apply the same long-term cycles analysis analysis to Bitcoin as you did with the stock market earlier? >> Um, yeah. I think I think pretty much most things move in sync together. Um, people are either net selling and and liquidating assets because they're they're down so much. They're fearful. They don't know what to do. Most people don't know a lot about finance or business and and commodities and stuff like that. and when they see their portfolio and their net worth just dropping month after month, they generally liquidate everything. And that's why we see selling in the stock market, people sell Bitcoin as well, it's um it'll be stuck with the overall economic kind of flow of either people are taking on risk or they're all moving away from risk. So, I don't think I don't think it's going to be that digital gold that people thought it was going to be. I think I think it has lost its luster for a while. it it might come back and and be really exciting maybe at some point in 2026, but I would just steer clear of it right now. >> Okay, very good. Thank you very much, Chris. Let's uh wrap it up here and uh we'll continue another time, Chris. So, um you have the asset revesting strategy that uh uh your your website offers. Tell us a little bit about that and where we can find your work. Yeah. Well, I've got this book u asset revesting which I wrote which talks about how I rotate from one asset class to another. So, for example, equities, stocks in general, doesn't matter how many sectors you own. People think they're diversified when they hold a bunch of different stocks. You're not really diversified. You own stocks. Stocks is one asset class. They're either up generally all going up or going down. This asset revesting strategy tells us which asset to own and when to reinvest our money into a different asset. So we rotate from stocks to bonds to currency to cash and and and around depending on what is in favor. And that's what I do. I manage my own portfolio. I help subscribers at my newsletter. I share my exact portfolio, my trades, my daily analysis, and we trade the markets together. You, you know, followers are trading exactly the same thing I do at the same time. We know the targets and we navigate these markets together. And I share more than just the stock market. I talk about my precious metals positions, when I'm buying and selling those. I talk about real estate when I move in and out of those and and and our forecasts and project uh expectations for that stuff. Same with businesses, when to buy and sell businesses. I've sold a business in 2007 when everything looked like it was about to fall apart. And thank God I did because that business never survived to the person who bought it. It's unfortunate, but you need to know these cycles. These cycles I'm talking about aren't just to trade the stock market. This is like life. This is understanding the whole gauntlet of investments that us as investors have to manage and protect our families and stuff. >> Great. We'll put the link down below. So, click on that link and follow Chris there. See you again, Chris. Thank you so much for your analysis. Um, I'm pretty sure I'll see you before the end of the year, but if I don't then have a happy new year, merry Christmas. Uh, but uh let's try to get something on the books before the end of the year so we'll get in the final 2026 outlook. >> Sounds great. Thank you. Yeah, merry Christmas as well uh to you and uh merry Christmas in advance to the why why am I saying merry Christmas to the audience? I'll see the audience again before Christmas, but uh I'll be working until until the end of the year. Uh anyway, good to see you again, Chris. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to follow Chris in the link down below and I'll see you next time. >> Take care.
'Crazy Turmoil' For 2026; Markets Sell Off As 'Something Big Is Coming' | Chris Vermeulen
Summary
Transcript
I think 2026 is going to be a very exciting year. I think it's going to be huge for precious metals. I think there's huge upside potential in the next month or two still for metals to go much higher. I also think the equities markets are going to go into some crazy turmoil. All the analysis that I've always shared with you David is just is has been saying like something big is coming, something bad is coming. The thing is we don't know when. They're not letting the train stop. That's what they're doing with all these programs. They're like, "We cannot let this train stop because it'll be a bloodbath in the markets, in real estate, and everything." I >> It's another big down day for the stock markets. The S&P and NASDAQ are both pulling back from their weekly uh gains here. So, it's had a couple of days of a good streak. And now the S&P is down more than 1.1%. The NASDAQ composite declined 1.6% intraday. Christopher Mullen, chief market strategist at the technical traders.com, is back with us to tell us what's going on and what's next. And spoiler alert, he thinks that 2026 is going to be a major year. We'll find out in which direction. Chris, welcome back. Hey, thanks for having me, David. Always a pleasure. Every time you're back, something big is happening. Earlier this week, uh the Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points. But more importantly, because everybody tele that was well telegraphed, everybody expected that. But more importantly, the Fed announced that they would resume buying treasuries uh later this month. Actually, starting today and markets took that as very good news. Uh I could show you a little clip of that later, but let's talk about what's going on today. it seemed like that euphoria was short-lived because literally 2 days after that we're getting a pretty significant draw down in and in and in and risk and um I just I'm asking uh if this is a temporary rotation into something else the beginning of something broader or perhaps uh it's just new specific uh related to tech which is driving a lot of the selloff today. So I'll let you comment on what's going on presently. >> Sure. Yeah, there's a lot there to unpack. So, you know, in a nutshell, over the the last just the last three sessions alone, we had the Fed come out with a quarter basis rate cut, which shook the markets up. We saw some pretty good volume and volatility during that day. Then we had Oracle come out with not the most exciting uh news for the AI bubble. And then, of course, today we had Broadcom come out. And so, the market is I think it's a little exhausted and it's had a couple hits of bad news for the AI space. And so, we're seeing that pull back. Now if we look at the charts, there's a lot going on which is kind of exciting when when we look at the charts. I think the key here, let's look at the daily chart of the QQQ on the right hand side. Now typically the market has had a very nice run up. The thing is it hasn't had a pullback or a whole lot of a pause in terms of resetting the price. And what happens is when the price is a big run, it usually has to try and shake the market out before it goes higher. Now we're starting to see that today. We got a nice big drop on on the daily chart. So, the news is catching up. Finally, we're starting to see everybody who's kind of moved in. Now, the market is trying to scare them out and run them out. And if we look at the 30inut chart on the lefth hand side here, we get a really good view of all these layers that this market is going to want to break. And I was telling subscribers and followers the other day, this big run up underneath each of these little lows through here, there are going to be a set of traders with with stops set. So, as the market starts to pull back, it's going to start to run those stops. And we talked about the market coming all the way back down to this big gap here that we're probably going to want to see this market come down trigger all of these stops. So short-term traders who are way too zoomed in, they panic out. And we're starting to see that today. We're getting into these green bars telling us the market is dropping very quickly. We're starting to see panic selling pick up. And this is typically what happens. Look, look what happens in the in the NASDAQ after we have an extended run up. You have a sharp drop that spooks the market up. We have a big move up, then it has another quick drop, another big move up, another drop. So, a sharp drop is how the market bucks you off it, right? In a bull market, it the bull tries to buck you off. And it doesn't take much because people get nervous. They get overpositioned and they don't like price to go against them. And so, it usually just takes one or two red bars and people will panic and eject out of the trades and then it goes higher. Now, I I think seasonalitywise, we're in favor for for higher pricing. If we look at the seasonality chart of the S&P 500, we're right in the middle of December here. We should literally see this market find a bottom and then start to run higher into the end of the year. So to me, this pullback is the market digesting a couple pieces of news and really just now everybody's quickly flipped to to this fear mode, panic, and it's just creating this kind of quick waterfall sell-off and this drop. So, uh, you know, if the market closes low today on a Friday, we might see a gap lower on Monday, but then I think it could get bought up. I think it'll be an exhaustion move down on Monday and then we could go into the end of year rally to potentially all-time highs. >> When you look at a chart like this, um, I'll talk about the all-time high in just a second. So, here's my screen and I'm showing the heat map for today. And like I mentioned earlier, primarily a techdriven sell-off. And we know that tech is the primary sector in both the S&P and of course the NASDAQ. But uh you're looking at this, would you make a pair trade and let's say long something else and short tech right now? Because it just looks like the rest of the market's holding up. Okay. Well, um I I think I think precious metals is kind of the safe play now. Today is a broad market selloff. We're pretty much seeing everything across the board move down. We're seeing uh pretty much most sectors. We're seeing precious metals, energy, stocks, large cap, small cap, micro cap, everything is kind of selling off. So, it's kind of just, you know, today's there isn't a safe haven really today. I think if you were to uh, you know, if a gun was to your head, what's what's the best play here, it's probably precious metals. I think it's um I always like gold because it's slower, it's more stable. I I find it has more patterns that play out and it has a strong pattern. But I mean, yeah, as a pair trade, I definitely wouldn't bet against the market here. I do think this is just a sell-off. I think I think the play here is just to let this market stabilize. Uh the trend is still holding up. So, I think you just want to stick with this. This is just a one-day pullback. It doesn't mean you throw everything out, you know, out the window, which so many people do. It doesn't take much to spook people. >> It doesn't take much to move the markets either. traders are watching this market and trying to decide when and how things are going to happen the way they do. When you have major events like the FOMC where perhaps Trump announcing tariffs or um something of that sort, you can put a finger on it and say this is what caused a sell-off or this is what's caused a rally and I'm looking at the news and not a lot's going on today. So, how do you describe this kind of action? Do markets do people just decide and wake up on a Friday and say, you know what, we're going to take profits and that's that that's what happens. like what how do you >> It could be it could be part of it. Um I mean there was a lot of news that came out today. The the charts showed some pretty big volatility over the past two days with both the Oracle and and um Broadcom news kind of playing over and you know a lot of things are up. Everything's at resistance or near all-time highs. Everything's had a really nice run. a little bit of a pause or pullback here is, you know, is warranted and and that could totally mean on a Friday you're like, you know what, I've got my account is up nicely this week. I think I'm going to sell some of my positions and have a great weekend. And the problem is I think a lot of people do feel that way at times. And then, of course, it creates a self-fulfilling prophecy of some people start taking profits, a couple support levels, minor ones are broken, which turns into more people panicking, and then the the market really drops and picks up speed. And that's what we're seeing today. I feel like I don't feel like it's panic selling. We're actually not seeing anything any strong selling. All we're seeing is just short-term traders kind of ejecting out and and the really emotional players just kind of shaking up here. >> Your panic indicators aren't flashing right now. >> They're not spiking to a level that's telling us people are running for the door. It's starting to move up a little bit, but it's not at a threshold where people are are panicking. I what I think would happen is the market opens lower on Monday because this fear if the market closes down on a Friday, it gives people the whole weekend to ruminate and have these stories. Oh my gosh, I got to sell. Metals are topping, silver reverse, stocks are falling, and they all exit at the open on Monday for the first half an hour or so and we see a drop. And I think that's when we probably see my panic selling indicators spike. And of course, right when it spikes and people bail out at the open, the market will probably put in a sharp reversal and and start to rally to the end of the year. That's that's what I think is going to happen. I I always in favor with the underlying trend. The long-term trend is up. The short-term trend is still up. >> And uh you got to just expect buyers will step back in um once they feel like the fair value or the markets kind of reset. >> Before we jump back into the video, let's talk about something most people ignore, but is very important. Your online privacy. Your personal information isn't just sitting on your phone or email. It's being scraped, bought, and sold by data broker sites every day online without your permission. Our sponsor today, Delete Me, helps you take that control back. They scan the web for your exposed information, send you regular privacy reports, and remove your data from hundreds of broker sites so it can't be used against you. And in their latest report, they reviewed over 325 listings to see if any data broker had my personal information. and they continue to check every week to make sure it stays off. Go to jointdeiteme.com/davidlin and use promo code davidin at checkout or scan the QR code here on the screen. Get 20% off on all US plans. Take control of your privacy today. Speaking of the longerterm trend and even the shorterterm trend, don't fight the Fed seems to be the theme of 2025 and perhaps into 2026. I'll let you comment on that. Take a listen to what Jerome Powell was uh talking about in reserve in terms of reserve management purchases. This is what I mentioned earlier in the interview. Take a listen. Accordingly, at today's meeting, the committee decided to initiate purchases of shorter term Treasury securities, mainly Treasury bills, for the sole purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time. Such increases in our securities holdings ensure that the federal funds rate remains within its target range and are necessary because the growth of the economy leads to rising demand over time for our liabilities. >> Okay, there you go. He's going to buy short-term treasuries in the order of $40 billion in the first month, he later says. And uh markets price that in, I guess, on Wednesday, and today was a selloff. We'll see what happens when it actually starts taking into effect. What do you do to this with this information, Chris? >> I I don't do a whole lot with it. I mean, I really just follow the overall price action. Um, the Fed's got their reasons and their their whole strategy of what they do, and I've never really let it alter any of my trades. If the markets are are going higher, if the Fed speaks and things pull back, usually the market gets bought back up if we're in a if we're in a uptrend. So, I don't I don't worry about what they say or do. That's a short-term news-driven trader action and I I don't really take part of that. Yes, it may affect the economy in a bigger way, but again, the stock market leads the economy. The stock market is usually leading in everything. It tops first, it bottoms first. It usually tends to know the news before it happens. And when the news comes out, it actually sells into the news or buys into the news depending on what side the news comes out. So, I I don't get caught up in it. I think it's um to me it's a waste of time because it doesn't help me fine-tune my trades in any way. >> Well, you're about to show us um a long-term cycles chart, which is a very interesting chart. And I'm just wondering, let's suppose the cycle tells you that this year where this current part of the cycle was going to be a down cycle or down year or bare market and then you've got the news coming out that the Fed is about to re-engage QE in some form. Doesn't that kind of throw the cycle off if if it's maybe a little bit counter to each other? I I'll let you comment on that. >> Uh yeah, I mean obviously that could that could hold the markets and juice kick the can down the road even further. Um anything anything is possible. There's always there there's always a counter to every theory and every strategy and every cycle that something could happen and could play it out. Um, I do believe that when the economy does turn, and we we've seen this over and over again, when when the stock market and the economy slow down and and start to head lower, it doesn't matter what the Fed does in a lot of cases, they they're cutting rates. They're trying to do stuff. When everybody's selling and scared to spend money and they don't want to hire people because business is slowing, they can't stop that train. I don't believe now. They're they're not letting the train stop. That's what they're doing with all these programs. They're like, "We cannot let this train stop because it'll be a bloodbath in the markets, in real estate, and everything." I think so. They don't want it to come to an end. And yes, I think you're right, David. I think they could try to hold it up and maybe delay it even further. Eventually, there's going to be a big market reset and the momentum worldwide will be so big, you know, one country is not going to stop it. Uh, when everybody just tightens up and they're like, I don't know what to do. Like, I just I don't want to spend money. I don't want to expand. I don't want to do this or do that. And a lot of people will start to sell stuff. So, I mean, we just have to follow price. I think 2026 is going to be a very exciting year. I think it's going to be huge for precious metals. I think there's huge upside potential in the next month or two still for metals to go much higher. I also think the equities markets are going to go into some crazy turmoil. But if the Fed does juice things up, well, they might push the stock market higher with precious metals still for another year. Um, we just don't know. And that's why it's better to follow trends than try to predict cycles or what the Fed is doing and stuff like that. Just just follow price. That's the key. >> Well, you've got here a cycles chart. Speaking of cycles, tell us what we're looking at. >> Yeah, so this is Samuel Benner. Uh this is a guy in the 1800s. He was a farmer. He lost his shirt um well financially and he ended up doing a lot of research and found multiple cycles that come into play. Long story short, there's three levels and layers to this. A this top layer is like maximum kind of maximum peaks. So for example in in 1999 there was a major cycle peak plus a minor cycle peak which we led into the tech bubble. 2007 or 2008 financial crisis was another minor peak and then we've we struggled with 2019. There was a double peak which was COVID. There was another type of panic in the market that created a sell-off. The next cycle high is this coming year 2026. And all the analysis that I've always shared with you, David, is just is has been saying like something big is coming, something bad is coming. The thing is we don't know when. The markets can drag things out much longer than you anticipate. The key is to make sure you've got a game plan. This cycle is saying we could have weakness at some point in 2026. Maybe it drags over to 2027. Maybe maybe the markets still hold up next year with some QE. I'm not sure. But you need to be prepared because when this does happen, you know, we could see a weakness all the way down to 2032. So this a long ways away. It's a long time to be losing money. You know, having businesses downturn, but this is all an opportunity. when the markets do correct, you know, 2032 or when my analysis shows that the markets are turning and things are starting to strengthen, man, if you can survive a market crash and a reset and you have your capital and you can you can invest it in ways that will make you wealthier so fast than anything else, you can just move into multiple things. So, that's what this cycle plays into. It's it's a very big big analysis. It's not always accurate. It's hasn't nailed everything. It's just interesting because it falls in line with the most recent cycles that we've we've experienced as traders and investors and the next one happens to be starting in like, you know, 18 days from now. That year starts the ticker the timers going for this cycle to find a top in the uh in the coming year. >> Let's overlay maybe this chart. I'm just I'm just thinking about this. maybe overlay this with an actual price chart and then we can talk about indicators you're looking at for rollover because what that's showing you is a local top sometime in 2026 if >> if markets follow this chart. >> Yeah. >> And then at some point in 2026 markets start rolling over and uh back to the age question. How do you tell when the market starting to roll over if it's a one day correction? >> Uh yeah well you got to you got to follow things on multiple time frames. I mean, we can go and look at a long-term investing chart here of the weekly chart of the S&P 500. And so, if we go back to as far as this this chart loads, this this type of analysis tells us, you know, when we're finding a major bare market top, when there's a a new bull market starting, and it it gives us these windows where these kind of colored arrows are of when to be protect protective of ourselves because you just never know when one of these big resets are coming. So, we we'll be looking at the weekly chart, the long-term investment signal, saying, "Okay, are we coming into a 2007 market top? Do we have the divergences? Do we have price starting to break down?" Um, all of this stuff. And so it's hard to identify a major bare market because the reality is you don't know, for example, that this is a full-on bare market until it really puts in has a, you know, 20 plus% drop and then it finds stability and then it breaks down from there and then goes into like the 30 40 50 plus percent correction. So that's that's what we need to see. Like for example, if we look at 2022, the stock market pulled back, you know, 20 plus% and then it kind of went into this consolidation. Now, if if this broke down and broke this low, then we would probably be starting a massive bare market, a multi-year bare market, but it it ended up carving out a bottom. It ended up generating a new strong trend to the upside and we're back into a trend. So for us to know when this big we're going to have to see like price break down and have a correction and then eventually kind of break another significant low and then from there it can go into a big waterfall. So we're going to have to look at it from different time frames. We'll probably see the stock market sell off in a big way and we'll probably see precious metals initially have a very big rally and move higher. And you and I have covered this before the the comparison chart of 2007. And if you take a look at the chart on on the left here, you know, the stock market was trading at all-time highs. Gold was pushing to all-time highs. It's right where we are right now in in real time. Similar type of setup. Both stocks and metals stocks and metals rallied together for the last couple of years. Um, what I'm looking for eventually is the stock market to break down and the money is going to come out of the stock market and it's going to shoot and get pushed into the precious metal space. So when we see this, David, when we see stocks crash and all that money comes out of stocks and people push it into the precious metal space where gold could rally another 15 to 20% from here, silver could rally another 50 to 60% from here. Same with platinum, same with platium. That to me is going to be like, okay, now it is like th this feels like the end. The music has stopped for the stock market. And eventually the stock market will put in some type of pause. And then when it breaks those lows, that's when we go into like a stage four decline and the bottom falls out and there's mass devastation for businesses and bankruptcies and gold will pull back with that. So that that's what I'm looking for is these this extreme divergence where metals shoot higher, everybody loves it and people start moving out of gold. That to me will be like one of the last indicators saying, "Hey, we only have a couple months left and we could be entering a big reset and a recession in the economy, global economy." Yeah, that's the key because when when stocks enter a huge bare market, typically gold and silver fall with it initially at least. Okay. The Can you pull up a gold and silver chart? Can you maybe overlay gold and silver together? >> And I just want to show the audience here how they've been moving relative to each other. There's a bit of divergence going on within the precious metal space itself, not just between gold and stocks. So, you'll notice that um while you're setting that up, I'll just explain what's going on. You'll notice that gold has been flat, if not up, in the last month or so. Over the last 3 months, gold is actually slightly down by the order of I think one or one or 2%. And silver is a completely different story. Silver is actually up by a lot. So yeah, gold peaked around October 20th, 4374, and we're still right under 4,300 right now. So it's slightly down in the last month and a half. >> Silver has been up uh let me just pull up the exact number. >> There we go. >> Yeah. >> So that doesn't typically happen. They move in the same direction, but then flat for one and then up for another is not the same direction. So what do you make of this divergence? >> Yeah. So the the precious metal space, gold has been on fire for for a long time. Uh it has been kind of while silver traded sideways for you know a year, gold actually just kept moving higher. So gold is had a lot of attention. Enough momentum got into gold that people then eventually bled over into silver. A lot of times I find for major trends gold moves first and then silver's a little delayed but then silver will play catch-up on the back end which is what it's doing right now. And so what I think is I think gold got the attention, it got the love, and then suddenly gold's having a pullback and a pause, but now everybody is on high alert that precious metals are a hot sector because we're seeing miners breaking out. We've got silver, platinum, and platium. Everything is taking part, not just gold. And so I think the reason we see silver moving up is because of simply people want to make more money. Silver moves faster. They're like, "Okay, well if precious metals are going higher, give me the fastest moving one you got." silver happens to be it. Silver al also happens to be a much smaller market, I think, than gold. So, it doesn't take a whole lot of more money to go into that space to to make it go even higher. And so, silver is just getting juiced right here because money's moving into it and saying, you know what, forget slow gold right now. I'm going to go into silver. And so, silver is getting the attention. And it's, you know, today, I think you and I are speaking, it's down about 4% alone. >> Yeah, >> that's typical for silver in this type of environment. We got big up days up four or 5%. Other days it'll be down three or 5%. Uh that's just the nature of that beast because it's a tiny market. It moves fast, but it's the one. It's the favored one right now. People always gravitate to where can you get the most leverage, make the most money. Silver's always been that. That's why there's silver stackers dedicated. They're like silver is going to go to a hundred or, you know, $500 and that's what people are stacking for is when the the system breaks and silver goes ballistic. Um, and so yeah, silver just becomes that play later in the stages. That that to me is telling me we're getting closer to a major top in the precious metal space. I still think there's another 40 50% or more for silver to the upside, but it's telling me now people have shifted from boring gold to be more secure. Now they're they're willing to put on more risk. And that's that's a little bit of a sign that it's it's a m starting to mature this trade. If you look at how silver has performed over the last two months, the sell-offs have been pretty consistent in what follows in terms of uh the magnitude of the sell-off and then what follows after that. So, every time silver has fallen by more than four to 5% in a single day intraday basis, the sell-off continues for a few more trading sessions before the sell-off um starts to uh decrease in magnitude and the price stabilizes, consolidates for a while, then it goes back up. It's been pretty consistent. So, it was it's funny because I had had a guest on yesterday and I was telling him uh this was before today's big move, of course. And I was telling him I would maybe make a pair trade short silver and uh long gold. Uh I don't think that's worked out because both of them are down today. But my point my point was that silver looks uh a bit more overbought relative to gold on a technical basis. And um so I just like to you to comment on both of those points that I made. the first uh which is that um a four or 5% sell off in silver in one day is usually has usually been followed by further selloff. So maybe evaluate that. And then second, does it look a little bit too overbought even at current levels relative to gold? >> Okay. Yeah. So silver is a fast it's fast moving. Fastmoving means increased volatility. Increased volatility means more emotional traders involved, right? So when silver's had a big run like it has had here, it's had a beautiful popping and run, it it's very quick and easy for it to pull back and to shake people out and and generally what I see is there's usually a 3 to 4 day window. So you have a down day like today, a four or 5% down day and that reres havoc and and echoes through the people who are holding silver who are who are potentially going to sell if it moves down too much. the people who are open to selling because they're worried they're very short-term, they're going to sell and it usually takes about 3 to 4 days. So, silver sells off. Well, there's going to be, you know, the working class. They come home tonight, they get into they they come home, they sit down, they look at the markets because they're working all day and they're like, "Holy crap, silver sold off today." Well, short-term traders already got out today. Like, we're talking day traders, momentum traders. But then they're going to see it at night and they're going to be like, "Well, on Monday I'm getting out because it looks like it's topped." It does have a little bit of an exhaustion pattern. It ran higher this morning and is closing below yesterday's low, which is not it. That to me alone is saying we're probably going to see a few more days of downward price. So, I think you've nailed that part, David. And then of course it there's people on the other side of the world that eventually see this move and then they got to take action for their first day and then they see it and the next day other people get out. So, there's different time frames of people investors who are going to panic out. So I think when we see a sharp move, especially in a volatile asset, it sparks emotions and then it takes about 3 or 4 days for that fear to finally work itself out. Usually after a big down day, there might be a little bit of a pause or bounce and that's simply bargain hunter stepping in saying, "Oh yeah, it's way sold off way too quick." But usually that that overall drip of selling pressure from all the different layers of investors from around the world will carry over and drag it down a little bit more. Your other question, David, I'm trying to think of what it was. you were talking about um >> gold relative to silver uh well vice versa. Silver relative to gold uh whether or not silver just looks really overbought compared to gold. >> I think you covered some of that already. >> Yeah. And you're you're kind of talking about the pair trade. So I'm not a fan of hedging. I I I used to hedge years and years ago and I realized hedging costs money and then a lot of times it's really hard to time the markets. So you put a hedge on and then you realize the the the asset you hold you were holding and hoping was going to go higher. you put a hedge on to protect it, your asset keeps going higher and then your hedge just costs you money. So to me, I feel like a pair trade is kind of like a hedge. I'm like, and and my other my other theory is if the precious metal space is going down, if silver is going down, gold's probably going down. If the stock market's going down or say technology, I'm not going to pair it with another sector because I look at the precious metal space as one trade. They generally move up and down together. And same with the stock market. So, I stay away from pairing. Stay away from hedging. It's just an expense. You're then trying to time some move you think is happening. And I think you're better to just either ride out the volatility and not put the hedges on uh or exit it and get back in once you're confirmed that it's starting another uptrend. >> Fair enough. Let's finally move on to Bitcoin now. Chris, $89,000 I believe is the latest uh price on my screen and it's just been consolidating around 90,000 for quite some time and um maybe you can help us decide uh how it's going to perform going forward because it just looks like it's waiting for a breakout. So I'll let you I'll let you >> break out or a breakdown. >> Break out. Break down. Uh break to some place. Chris, >> right on. Yeah. So, if we take a look at the charts to me, well, first of all, the trend is clearly down. Series of lower highs, lower lows. It had a a fairly significant topping phase through here. Then you could argue there's another kind of topping phase through here. So, no matter how you call it, you know, it's definitely put in a top and now it's in a downtrend. To me, this looks like it is begging to break to the downside. The trend is down. So, most likely sellers are still selling. They're still scared. This is pointing to lower pricing. And and if we took the most conservative price target on here using a Fibonacci extension here, we can just take the the power of this selloff, the strength of this bounce, and that's telling us where we should go, which is around 67,000 per Bitcoin, which is definitely going to spark some serious panic selling because we're going to break this low over here. If we break this low, there's going to be a ton of people saying they're going to jump ship because this is a significant um significant support level. And then you could argue in the big picture, this is a giant maybe head and shoulders pattern that we have to zoom way out on this chart because once we break this low and come down into here, it's going to have some big bounce. It naturally does. And then we're going to have this potentially neckline which breaks down and you know we could see much lower Bitcoin pricing. Right now just though to keep it really simple if you want to get an idea of what to expect over the next month I would say this move right here is very similar to this move right here or this move. And you know, if we zoom in on this on this chart, we had Bitcoin, which I think IBIT actually shows it better because it shows all regular trading hours. Um, we had we had this this huge gap to the upside, then a massive gap to the downside. Uh, during regular trading hours, this we had the same thing, a huge gap up and a sell-off, and then a huge gap down. And we're just kind of in this hive volatility phase. I like to track regular trading hours. That's why I moved to the ETF because regular trading hours is gives us the psychology and the trades of the average investor who trades within the window of 9:30 and 4 and that's where the majority of volume is and that's the analysis that I I like to focus on because that's where the volume is. So either way I do think this this is struggling. I think we're going to see it go lower. It is still tied to the stock market to some regard. So, if the stock market goes into a Santa Claus rally, then we might actually find some support and it might drift higher. But I would not be long Bitcoin here. I think Bitcoin, this is a bounce within a downtrend. It may bounce higher, but it the odds are it's going to end up lower in due time. So, if if you do trade it to the long side, it should be a quick trade. You get in, catch a holiday bounce if it's got it in it, and then move move aside and wait to see what happens from there. Would you apply the same long-term cycles analysis analysis to Bitcoin as you did with the stock market earlier? >> Um, yeah. I think I think pretty much most things move in sync together. Um, people are either net selling and and liquidating assets because they're they're down so much. They're fearful. They don't know what to do. Most people don't know a lot about finance or business and and commodities and stuff like that. and when they see their portfolio and their net worth just dropping month after month, they generally liquidate everything. And that's why we see selling in the stock market, people sell Bitcoin as well, it's um it'll be stuck with the overall economic kind of flow of either people are taking on risk or they're all moving away from risk. So, I don't think I don't think it's going to be that digital gold that people thought it was going to be. I think I think it has lost its luster for a while. it it might come back and and be really exciting maybe at some point in 2026, but I would just steer clear of it right now. >> Okay, very good. Thank you very much, Chris. Let's uh wrap it up here and uh we'll continue another time, Chris. So, um you have the asset revesting strategy that uh uh your your website offers. Tell us a little bit about that and where we can find your work. Yeah. Well, I've got this book u asset revesting which I wrote which talks about how I rotate from one asset class to another. So, for example, equities, stocks in general, doesn't matter how many sectors you own. People think they're diversified when they hold a bunch of different stocks. You're not really diversified. You own stocks. Stocks is one asset class. They're either up generally all going up or going down. This asset revesting strategy tells us which asset to own and when to reinvest our money into a different asset. So we rotate from stocks to bonds to currency to cash and and and around depending on what is in favor. And that's what I do. I manage my own portfolio. I help subscribers at my newsletter. I share my exact portfolio, my trades, my daily analysis, and we trade the markets together. You, you know, followers are trading exactly the same thing I do at the same time. We know the targets and we navigate these markets together. And I share more than just the stock market. I talk about my precious metals positions, when I'm buying and selling those. I talk about real estate when I move in and out of those and and and our forecasts and project uh expectations for that stuff. Same with businesses, when to buy and sell businesses. I've sold a business in 2007 when everything looked like it was about to fall apart. And thank God I did because that business never survived to the person who bought it. It's unfortunate, but you need to know these cycles. These cycles I'm talking about aren't just to trade the stock market. This is like life. This is understanding the whole gauntlet of investments that us as investors have to manage and protect our families and stuff. >> Great. We'll put the link down below. So, click on that link and follow Chris there. See you again, Chris. Thank you so much for your analysis. Um, I'm pretty sure I'll see you before the end of the year, but if I don't then have a happy new year, merry Christmas. Uh, but uh let's try to get something on the books before the end of the year so we'll get in the final 2026 outlook. >> Sounds great. Thank you. Yeah, merry Christmas as well uh to you and uh merry Christmas in advance to the why why am I saying merry Christmas to the audience? I'll see the audience again before Christmas, but uh I'll be working until until the end of the year. Uh anyway, good to see you again, Chris. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to follow Chris in the link down below and I'll see you next time. >> Take care.