Market Insights: The podcast discusses the recent ruling deeming tariffs illegal and the potential implications for the market, highlighting the ongoing debate and possible Supreme Court involvement.
Interest Rates: There is speculation about a potential 25 basis point rate cut in mid-September, with discussions on how this might affect mortgage rates and the broader economy.
Company Performance: Nvidia's earnings were better than expected, with significant revenue growth, but concerns remain about future performance and competition from companies like AMD and IBM.
Investment Opportunities: The podcast highlights the potential impact of the end of the de minimis exemption on small businesses and consumers, suggesting a shift in market dynamics.
Energy Sector: The discussion includes the restart of nuclear plants due to changing economic conditions, emphasizing a shift in energy strategies and the potential for nuclear energy growth.
AI Developments: The podcast covers the rise of AI companies like Anthropics, with valuations soaring, and the implications of AI in various sectors, including the controversial use of celebrity likenesses in chatbots.
Travel and Tourism: A decline in overseas travel to the US is noted, attributed to new visa fees and other barriers, impacting the tourism industry.
Stock Picks: The podcast concludes with a discussion on insider trading activities, focusing on an unusual small purchase by a CFO, suggesting potential hidden opportunities in the market.
Transcript
This episode is sponsored by Interactive Brokers. And are you looking to trade gold, silver, platinum, and palladium with low cost to and total global access? Well, at Interactive Brokers, you can trade spot metals, futures, and options on major exchanges all from one powerful platform. Get efficient pricing, deep liquidity, and institutional-grade tools at your fingertips. Whether you're hedging, investing, or even diversifying, Interactive Brokers puts the world of metals in your hands. Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC, and futures are not suitable for all investors. US Gold is only available to legal residents of the United States. US Gold is not available to legal residents of Arizona, Montana, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Visit interactivebrokers.com/medals and start trading smarter. Hello and welcome to D'vorak Horowitz Unplugged, an hour-long discussion of activity in the financial markets around the world featuring columnist John C. D'vorak and money manager Andrew Horowitz. This conversation is casual and unrehearsed. Let's join John and Andrew now. >> I'm John C. D'vorak >> and I'm Andrew Horowitz. >> And it's the 2nd of September, 2025. >> Summer is over. Labor Day is uh just a day in the past. How did you enjoy your weekend and what did you barbecue? >> Uh actually chicken >> a whole >> I didn't really barbecue. Well, let's see. F. No. No. On. No, I cooked uh cocoa van as a matter of fact. I didn't barbecue anything. >> Yeah, I could have barbecued. Do you have those kind of cocoon dishes to properly put them in and make it look nice and they bake and all that? >> No. >> What do you make it in Pyrex? >> What do I make the cocoa van in? >> Yeah. What don't you have to bake it? >> No. >> How do you make your cocoa van? >> It's basically boiled chicken. >> That's it. in wine >> with a lot of seasoning and onions and and carrots and uh celery and bay leaves and uh thyme and uh >> soup. >> A lot of wine. >> It's a soup. >> And also some chicken bullion to make it more chickeny. >> Yeah. The little cheat code that works really well and goes a long way, right? >> Yeah. If you want a good cheat, by the way, it's hard to come by, but you can find it. I I'm pretty sure the late uh Bully of New York City, Bully Bakery, that superstar chef that was there, uh I'm sure he did this. I'm absolutely convinced of it. It's where I got the idea. Uh when you make any bananas dish, throw in a lot of banana extract. It just really does the trick number. >> There's some interesting things like that you could do like that. But, you know, I found out something for years. I had this close but not there approach to making a clams like a linguinian clam sauce just wasn't there. And one day somewhere I was actually in Monttokan and somebody says you know what you got to do. I'm like well what's that? You got to chop up some celery in there. I'm like well why would I do something like that? That sounds stupid. Like uh try it. I don't know what happened. It just it's perfection. Lots of garlic. white wine, all that, you know, good olive oil, saute the clams, good clam juice. >> Are this is the celery cooked to it to softness? >> Yeah, you s you saute it with the with the garlic with the little bit of shallots with the wine and the clams. It's I don't know what happens. >> So, are they soft in in >> Yes. >> soft? Almost not even noticeable. >> Yeah. Interesting. >> I don't know what it does. >> Okay. >> That's probably something. >> It does something. It changes the flavor just ever so slightly. I also had something I never had before this weekend. I had acai, which I don't know why. >> You never had acai? >> No. >> Huh. >> I didn't even know exactly what it was until this weekend. >> Berry. >> Yeah. I know. It was >> were super sour berry. That's comes out of Brazil. >> It was uh there was an acai bar that had all these toppings and I said, "Hey, you know, I'm lactose intolerant." I'm like, "Does that have does that have uh any any any dairy or milk or lactose?" Nope. I'm like, "All right, put me in coach. I'm ready to go." So, I made myself like a blueberry and strawberry and topped it with a little bit of I don't know, some kind of Nutella topping or something. Made it like a a sundae out of acai. It was tolerable. >> It's a very Yes. Yes. Intense. It's very intense, but I like it. It's very tasty. >> Yeah. It's better than that tart yogurt that people eat. That tart yogurt that's just awful. You ever have that tart yogurt? It's just it's just frozen tart yogurt. Gh. >> I don't know why. >> I've never had frozen tart yogurt. >> Yeah, it's it's a it's a it's a female thing. >> It's not out here. >> It's a female thing. The guys don't There is nobody in that store that is a man. >> But they line up. It must be some flavoring that they could deal with. All right. Off off with the food. On with the finance. Tariffs deemed illegal. That's some of the things that are going on over the last few days. and they're fighting like hell to either get them overturned by a nonpartisan court because the court that you know the the the uh the court that recently deemed them illegal or was totally partisan and uh they're going to try to go to the Supreme Court which of course is not partisan at all and get the the ruling. So that's happening in the next few days. And if that doesn't work, there's always plan B. Have you heard about plan B? Well, there's a plan B and a plan C, I understand. But yes, I' I think I've heard a plan B. >> Plan B. Nobody really knows exactly what it is, but it's plan B. So, that's going to possibly >> I think it's just simply going to Congress, >> right? That's the way they should have done it to begin with, but they wanted to get in. Well, they would have had a lot of uh much more extended period of time until anything was done. >> They'd still be talking about it. >> Yep. Uh so much for rates coming down. We talked about this last week with the idea that POW is becoming a little bit more inclined to cut rates rate cut hopes for midepptember for at least 25 basis points, possibly 50, but definitely uh it looks like the odds are for a 25 basis point cut. And lo and behold, just like we talked about, people had a serious misunderstanding. That's an understatement of the idea that oh, you know, if we have lower rates, it's going to bring down mortgage rates and it's going to make make housing much more affordable. Backfire. We had rates go up. As a matter of fact, long rates uh on the 30-year mortgage are hitting recent highs. The short-term rates come down a bit. So, that yield curve is going. But since last week, we talked about the same thing last week, you and I. since last week the uh rates are even higher on the on the long bond. There's a lot of reasons for that. Uh main thing of course is tariffs now. Tariffs that were deemed illegal doesn't help. Less money to pay off the enormous deficit and therefore the bond vigilantes could be, you know, coming out. We'll talk about that. We're going to announce the winner of the close to the pin cup for Proctor and Gamble. some familiar names in the top five. Once again, >> yeah, there's some guys that are really talented. >> I don't even understand how they do it. I feel like they they hacked us somehow. That's the only way I can think of it. >> No, that's possible. You know, you can't trust anybody nowadays. >> I don't know. I mean, I'm certain that they wait probably longer than anybody else. They set their alarm clock. >> You don't have to be certain. You can look it up. >> I could look it up. That's a good point. I do have date stamps and time stamps. I just never felt it was that important. You know, if it if they're cheating and they're getting over on us, then God bless them. But >> it is a stock market after all. >> Exactly. It goes hand in hand. Uh blame it on AI, the new excuse. We got flirty chat bots that are causing all the problems, it seems. No longer do we have to worry about the weather. We're going to blame it on the chat bots, the flirty ones, by the way. And uh you know, things that happen bad are also being blamed. things like um you know suicides, mass killings. It's it's like who who was Son of Sam? Remember Son Son of Sam? >> His dog is in New York. His dog told him to kill all those people. >> Yeah. Yeah. Right. That's right. The dog. The talking dog. >> Yeah. The dog told him to kill everybody. This is like what's going on right now with uh with with AI. People are getting too comfortable. My AI have been I'll be honest with you. I use on my I I I let you listen to this once. I use on my phone the audio version, if you will, the mobile version of uh Copilot, and I got to tell you, I'm annoyed with them. >> I took Copilot off my machine. >> Copilot I like cuz it's chat it's it's chat GBT. That's the backbone. Well, it's I I I tend to use uh my go-to AI is usually Grock, which is a chat GPT spin, you know, fork, >> and I use Perplexity for longer dialogues. >> The problem is that Do you do this on your mobile? >> No, I don't care. I have a phone. It's in a drawer. >> All right. Well, in in the mobile, >> I glue to the phone to >> On the mobile version, it's very easy. I say, "Look, do me a favor. tell me something. Give me a recipe for a cocoon or something like that. It will tell me. But it's, you know, the problem is it starts out. >> I wonder if it's anything like the recipes you get off of YouTube videos for basmati rice where there's not you can get 20 recipes and not one person is cooking it correctly. >> Right. You start here. We go. See? Turn this guy on here. Put on. Hello. What happened? So this guy comes on here. It's all too cheery. Way too cheery. Here we go. Hey, Andrea, you're back. What's on your mind? >> Yeah. What? Give me a good recipe for cocoon. What do you think? >> Cocoa is a timeless French dish. Perfect for impressing guests. Start by marinating chicken in red wine with herbs overnight. Then, brown the chicken. Simmer with onions, carrots, mushrooms, and bacon. After an hour or so of low and slow cooking, you'll have a rich, flavorful stew. Simple yet elegant. Ready to try it out? >> Wow. No mention of the fact cocoa van means chicken cooked in wine. There's not one mention of wine except marinating in red wine which will make the dish look terrible. Okay. Yeah, that's what you get. >> Well, not only that, he's he's he's too optimistic. It's annoying, you know. Well, you like to get ready with that. I'll come back. How was your cocoon? You know, I was like, oh, dude. You know, it's just way too much optim. I said to him lately, I've asked questions. I said, "Stop. Just give me the facts, none of the fluff." Because there's a lot of fluff. >> But we're blaming it on. >> This is This to me is just another example of how the modern uh smartphone introduced in 2007 is ruining the culture, the civilization, and is going to be the death of us all. >> Yeah. Well, on that optimistic note, let's talk about markets. Uh Nvidia earnings, uh the high point maybe for a while. We saw the earnings come out last Wednesday. We have some of the numbers. Uh August is over. That's eight months now done and markets are solidly in the green. Another fine month for markets. >> Yeah. It's the end of that. >> Yeah. Well, September is September, October. Some of the greatest crashes of all time have happened in >> Yeah. September is always generally speaking September is the worst month for the S&P 500 historically. >> Yeah. Very bad. And and one time I asked what's the worst month? Uh I said I asked a chat GP said what what is the worst month I said something let me think I said I said what's the worst month for the markets on average and he came back and said October is the worst month because in September it's a terrible uh averages or something. I'm like what what what um >> October is the worst because September is the worst. >> Um AI news we have valuations to the moon. And there's some things that are coming out uh possibly either going to be IPOing or money going in that is quite extraordinary. Uh let's talk about Nvidia earnings first, shall we? I know you're very excited about this. This is from last Wednesday after the market closed. I thought it was really interesting that this should have been there was expected to be a much wider swing in the possibility of you know if they miss if they make if they exceed and maybe you know six or 7% assumed rate of change on the print. It was like nothing happened. Nobody cared. Uh it's almost like it was priced to perfection. Earnings per share came in a$15 adjusted versus the dollar one. Sales growth this quarter uh they assumed are going to be above 50%. They're excited about that. Their overall earnings and revenue were better than expected. Revenue 46.7 billion. 46.06 billion estimated. Once you start getting these in these levels, you know, an extra 500 million doesn't really matter. They beat by 750 million dollars. Yeah, peanuts. >> Peanuts. Nothing. So, overall, the company revenue rose 56% in the quarter from 30 uh a little over 30 billion a year ago. Year-over-year revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters dating back to mid 2023. That's pretty impressive. >> That's more than pretty impressive. That's a incredibly impressive. stock opened Thursday at 180, now trading about 168. So, it's lower than where it was. And that has to do with the Well, I'm wondering if there was an impact of oh, is that as good as it gets? Which again is good, right? That's good. It's great. I mean, it's it's more than that. I'm not I'm not downplaying this. It's unbelievable. But the question I think is have we reached that Dell moment where >> I'm not sure that that this this downturn had didn't have something to do with the AMD IBM deal. >> They've decided to partner up for this whole uh >> you think that the the uh competition could be something? >> Yeah, it has to be. >> There's plenty of news of competition. I mean, >> yeah, but IBM and and Yeah, but we're talking about legacy competition. >> Okay. >> Not some newbies that just showed up. We had IBM, you know, >> even though I I think as legacy, I think their their company stinks. But, uh, >> when's the last time IBM did something you're like, "Wow, that's good." And not related to Red Hat. >> It's not No, not within recent memory. >> What does IBM even do? I I think services. >> Yeah. >> Maybe they have a cloud play. >> Maybe >> exactly why the stock is so high is beyond me. But they they had a lot of uh >> That's because the Red Hat that was the Red Hat integration. That's >> Yeah, Red Hat. >> That's that's that's things went well once that happened. But with Nvidia, there was some concern over the data center revenue declining 1% from the previous quarter uh due to $4 billion less in sales of H2O chips. Supposedly, the H2O chips, they're not including in any of their guidance either. The H2O chips I'm talking about are the ones that they sell to China. They're not including that in any of their revenue projections for the good reason that they can't because those can't really be sold to China, the normal ones. So, good news, good stuff. I do wonder if the markets finally reached the peak and said, you know, this may be a near-term high. We need a rest. We saw all the good that we can get. I mean, even though after hours tonight, Google was pretty much got good news in that lawsuit where they don't have to divest of their uh browser with Chrome Chrome browser, but they have some other things about monopolistic behavior with their search, but generally speaking, it wasn't what people feared. Stock up about 8% after the close, >> Google, which brings up the NASDAQ 100 nicely. We have some nuclear energy news. I know you're excited about this. The Dwayne Arnold nuclear plant northwest of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, is pressing ahead with plans to restart operations by the end of the decade after shutting down for economic reasons. >> Do why are they rushing? It's >> right around the corner. I mean I what what you you know a lot more than this than I would which I don't know if that means anything but when you decommission a nuclear plant obviously a lot has to go into shutting that thing down right because you know there's uh the nuclear the uranium stuff you got to do this you got to do that it's a very long process and it's tedious >> right so my question is the restart obviously is intense. It's not an easy process. >> No. And it obviously takes half of a decade to do it. >> Do you know what's involved? >> No, I don't. I have no idea, >> but I'm sure it's mostly safety stuff that's involved. I wonder if they have to get new new active uranium again >> or if it's the stuff there is still all you have to do is >> No, they they have to get there's nothing there. They have to think is decommissioned. There shouldn't be any radio >> uh anything radioactive in the place. >> Well, Dwayne is owned by a new new well it's run by New Energy uh new next era energy. Where am I with that? That's the old FPNL Ne. Uh Dwayne Arnold would follow similar restart plan for the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan and the three-mile island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania which planned to resume operations later this year and in 2027. Point is big change in the economics. I mean they shut it down for two reasons. One was the economics. Two was the safety issues right or concerns. Safety concerns >> that would be the main concern. So in the last 5 years though, what a big change in the economics and safety concerns not being a problem anymore. So they were wrong to shut him down. >> Yeah, I'd say. Well, there was public pressure because of, you know, just a chicken littles out there running around their head cut off worried sick about radiation. Oh, these terrible nuclear plants and then green. But they're not, you know, they're the greenest of the green to be honest about it, but they didn't, you know, there weren't wasn't wind, wasn't uh solar. I mean, they take they've taken stuff offline that is uh like in California, they take they and Washington state, too. They both they've all taken dams offline, which is what could be greener than a dam that produces electricity? >> You're hurting the fish. You're hurting the fish. >> Yeah. Mind you, eating the fish is not a problem, but hurting the fish somehow, not letting them swim or whatever, >> even though the fish had all kinds of workarounds and they did just fine. >> They do just fine all the time. >> There are so many stories. >> Fish, they're not Yeah, >> I can tell you stories. I I once had a a house on a lake. They put in sterile carp because carp can be very uh problem. Oh, no. No, I'm sorry. Sterile tilapia. Tilapia. >> Oh, those are the worst. Yeah, they're invasive. >> Invasive. So, they put in the sterile tilapia because they wanted this round of tilapia to be invasive and get rid of some of the uh the excess growth, eat through it. Guess what happened? They weren't so sterile, it seems. They ate through everything on the lake and the lake is pretty much dead now because there's no excess cover, greenery, etc. It's lost its oxygen because the the top are just out of control. Well, that's one way of getting rid of the tilapia. >> Yeah. Yeah. That they they killed themselves. >> Crazy. But, uh, that's good news. And I think that, uh, we're better for it. And and, um, I I I'm still in favor of any and all, uh, this idea that, you know, I don't like, you know, one versus the other. I think if we want to have wind energy because it's expensive, that's why we want to kill it. But if it is something that does work to provide, you know what? If you want to buy it, you can buy it. Nobody said you can't buy it. If you want to spend the money on that or solar or whatever, as long as it's safe. I think at this point of uh where we are in the world, I think it's high time that we realize that any and all is a better energy plan. I think we should start that any and all. There's drill, drill, drill, drill, baby, drill. Right. >> I like any and all. >> Any and all. All right. somebody in the PR community out there. Let's start to get any and all uh energy. Any and all energy. We should start like that as a company. All right. USA travel. Who needs pesky visitors anyway? Let's be honest. Do we need those those those Canadians that come down and don't tip and can't drive? Do we want those people that are, you know, dirty and filthy? No, we don't want Who needs a No. No. Well, good news. Overseas travel to the US fell 3.1% year-onear in July to 19 million visitors according to US government data and it was the fifth month of decline this year defying expectations at 2025 would see annual in in inbound visitors finally surpass the preandemic level of 79 million. One of the big things happening right now is a new visa integrity fee on incoming travelers from many countries. Have you heard this? >> Yeah. Yeah. They want to charge 250 bucks to show up. I mean, I don't see how this is different than a lot of the like the exit fee in Japan, which you have to pay money to get out of there. Uh, seems like the similar kind of thing. >> They just jacked the prices up to go to the Bahamas by boat. It used to be 150 bucks to $300 depending on the size of your boat. And you get a we'll call it a visa. We'll call it a 90-day visa to be in the Bahamas in and out. Right now it's I think it's a 60-day. It's $500 minimum. >> What? >> Yep. 500 bucks to take my >> If I'm going to go to the Bahamas >> on my boat, >> spend my money, my hard-earned American cash in the Bahamas at their restaurants and whatever cabarets and all the stuff they have in the Bahamas. I have to pay 500 bucks just to have the privilege of going there to spend my money there. If you go by boat, if you go on my boat or someone's boat, that's where you have to pay. It's only 50 miles from here where I am. >> That's a jip. >> Yeah. Stupid. And they charge you an anchoring fee even if you're not anchoring. And you have to get a fishing license. And there's other rules. You have a boat over 50. >> Even if you're not fishing, >> there's I I don't know about that. They just force everything upon you. And it has to renew much much faster than you did in the past. And then there's a new AIS requirement. AIS is a I don't know if you're familiar with this, but on the GPS radar unit that you have, your boat can do a transmission of AIS, which is >> I don't know what it stands for, >> something signal, >> something signal, something automated information signal, maybe >> something. >> And it basically says, okay, my name, my boat is this, and here's my length, etc. And it shows where you are on the radar or on the maps. >> Yes. Yeah. On the map, >> you are required boats over 50 ft are required now to have that on their boat transmitting all the time when you're in the Bahamas. Even if you're at the dock or not even there, even if you're not there, even if you just close your boat up and leave for a week, has to be running, if not a thousand fine. They went a little cuckoo. So >> with this new visa integrity fee $250 total fees visa cost >> we're we're we're a deal compared to these >> gougers >> right the extra charge raised the total visa cost to $442 for non visa waiver countries like Mexico, Argentina, India, Brazil and China which is kind of the bricks right? >> Yeah. >> So they're going to have to be 442. In China, arrivals have remained muted since the pandemic with July numbers still 53% below the 2019 levels. That's a lot. >> India visa fees are also threatening the travelers from there. Visitors are down 2.4% this year driven by a near 18% drop in students. That was purposeful obviously. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. H we talk about this forever years. I feel like we're talking about this, which we have been. Um, a divided US appeals court ruled on Friday that most of Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, undercutting the Republican president's use of the levies as a key part of their overall income stream for, you know, balancing trade. Trump was upset. He said, uh, that the the decision was highly partisan. He says if these tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the country. So there's a big national economic policy tool and that's a problem. So now it goes to the Supreme Court, I think as early as maybe tomorrow, the next day, which is pretty cool because I thought the Supreme Court like had a pretty stacked schedule and they just get this squeeze. >> There's some expedited things that happened at the Supreme Court. >> Squeeze right in. So, the bond vigilantes that word's coming up again. This idea that uh the these listen the von Bon vigilantes is not like what was his name? Chuck. Uh who was the vigilante in that that movie? Chuck. Uh he had a mustache. He >> Yeah, I don't know Chuck. >> You know him? You know Chuck? Who was the Old movie vigilante Chuck. >> Charles Bronson. >> Charles Bronson. Yes. In Deathwish, 1974, man becomes a vigilante after his wife was murdered. He was uh played the the role of Paul Kersy. >> Yeah. He played Charles Bronson played that character in about 10 movies. Mhm. >> I mean, it wasn't the same guy, same name or same circumstance, but it was the same character. >> Yeah, that's all he had, >> which was this tough guy who's going to shoot everybody that gets in his way. >> That's all he had >> as revenge. >> So, um, the Bond vigilantes, which are not, it's not like a group. It's not like, uh, I'd like to join. That's not how it works, you know. You don't get a patch. You don't get a a certificate. You don't nothing like that. There's no membership. >> Have a patch. >> Yeah. Hi, I'm Bon Vigilante. Bob the Bon Vigilante. Nice to meet you. This is a concept. It's like the bears. Who are the bears? Who are the bulls? Right? is this concept bond vigilantes are talking about you know that people are going to get turned off to buying the uh bonds of the US government because we have too much debt deficits are out of control uh economic uncertainty political uh craziness and chaos and they're not willing to put their money into US bonds anymore so the bond vigilantes um are now being thought of because well, are they going to really mess with with bonds and and start selling? If they do and rates go up and bonds go down, is that going to be a real problem for for stocks where you could pretty much say, "Okay, you know what? Hey, let me get an idea. We're eight months through the year. Okay, got 10% of my investment. I can get another 3% from a bond." Let's say this number. Just finish the year at 13%. I'm good to go. No risk. So, it's not 3%. It would be more like 2%. You know, or something like that. But, uh, there's the idea you have right there. I don't know. It looks like uh it's not there yet, but every time we start seeing this and the bonds tick up ever so slightly, the word bond vigilantes comes out again. >> It's like, >> yes, I noticed this. >> It's like a PR machine that out of somebody's basement like, "All right, time to time again." Yeah, >> there's something vigilantism is is something that is uh above the law. So there's there's nobody breaking the law by selling bonds. >> Right. Right. Yeah. It's a bunch of tough guys walking the streets. Hey, give me your bonds. Take them out. We got to shred them. Vigilantes. I love it. Well, uh it's that time of the show. talking about interest rates. I think it's important we just uh bring up something in particular related to interest rates because >> when's the meeting for this rate cut? >> Uh I want to say the 18th. Let's see. I think I feel like it's the um next uh 17th. >> And what's the current uh what's the current >> 4.5? Oh, the current bet is >> the current thinking in the street. >> Yeah, it's 25 basis point at least a 25 basis point cut. Some people are optimistic thinking it's going to be 50 because I think we talked about this, you and I, that there's this idea that it's the beginning of a rate cut cycle and always starts with something more of a bang, but I keep reminding people it is not. >> Already had the bang already happen. >> So >> that's your thesis. >> That's my thesis. >> So there's no chance it's going to be above 25 >> unless something really weird happens. I don't know what happens from now till then. I think you're probably right. It's going to be 25. >> And so that'll be priced in by the time it happens. >> Now, if the tariffs are in fact illegal and those go away. >> No, that's not going to happen. They'll find, you know, they'll go to the plan B or something that they this the tariffs are going to be around. I told Trump's whole it's his whole reason for being in as long and before the midterms he still got the Congress and he can you know he's he'll shame them into passing some law because it's their responsibility according to the uh constitution. Yeah, I agree. But I'm saying hypothetically, if in fact the tariffs were illegal, that would be the only give the Fed more ammunition to cut rates further because some of the things they're holding out on is the idea that tariffs are inflationary and that's causing a problem that they don't want to get. They don't want to cut and then all >> they're still waiting for the I told you so moment for the inflationary part of this. >> Waiting for waiting for GDAU. It'll happen one day and everybody's I told you I'll be there too soon. I'll >> Yeah. years from now. >> I knew it. I knew it. I was right. 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The best informed investors choose Interactive Brokers. Rates are subject to change. Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC. compare how much more you could earn at ibkr.com/interest rates. It's pretty good. They get that automatically. That's something that they specialize in. Not holding back like a you know a zero interest rate or a 0 2 and you having to make decisions. It's uh you know they give you whatever the particular band is where your money is, they give you right the money. They give it to you right there. You don't have to figure out where to put your money. >> It's pretty it's pretty amazing. >> Yeah. Um let's see I mentioned mortgage ter mortgage rates by the way highest in months 10 years is approximately 4.3% on the 10ear treasury mortgage r um so something going on there dimminimus dus the mus I feel like that's something that I feel like that's something that Adam would say now that I just said it >> you like saying it right something like that Uh, it's like button. >> He doesn't say it that way. >> It's like button. >> No, he doesn't say button. >> No, he doesn't say that, but people say it. I'm saying he says it. >> They say but important. >> Important. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Important. Yeah. Important. >> Yeah. I heard commentators on TV professionals say important. >> I don't get it. Isn't it important to >> Yes, it's important. >> Say that the right way. >> It's a tent. T N T. Important. >> Important. Yeah. doesn't really take a skilled skilled observer or or arid addition to it doesn't take an ariodite person to say tent >> but they may want to axe you something. >> Yeah. You know that funny thing about a axe that actually is correct English if you go back to Cherion days in in England. >> All right, back it up. Reel it in, dude. What is a cherion? >> You know a chauer. the era of Chaucer predating I think it's a you know I don't know the the era but I think it's the >> it's like around Shakespeare >> it was spelled that way as they said X >> I think so I there's some documentation for this I read this is years ago I read this as a uh a kind of a curiosity and I said I I throw it out once in a while I just did it again I should I should u rebrief myself >> you should do a short substack on that where would that be if you I should I should re revisit this so I get the chasser part correctly in terms of what era he was involved in. >> People want to know this. >> They don't really care. I just I'm just showing off. >> So we got Cocoon >> showing off a cocoon and the proper way to do it and showing off with your early uh historical referencing. Let's just let's make cocoon is a is a chicken stew where the the boiling material is wine. This is like people that doesn't really have to be more complicated than that. You can just do that. I mean this is like a car you know what a carbonade is a carbonaro is. I don't know what carbonade. >> No carbonade is a is a beef stew and the cooking material is beer. >> Oh, I got you. >> So you got beef boron. It's a beef stew and the cooking material is red wine and then there's beef stew where the cooking material is just water and or broth >> and what about boiling meat? >> Yeah, ki a duck kofi is just boiled in its own fat. >> Well, ki I understand it to be fried in the fat of the duck. >> I always thought it was just cooked in. No, I think kung fi if you look into it is a is a piece of fatty duck fried and duck fat. >> Uh ki pronounced kung fi is a French cooking method involves slow cooking food typically meat like duck or chicken in its own fat or oil at a low temperature to preserve it resulting in extremely tender and flavorful food. >> Uh close enough. >> Yeah. Um what was the point? Oh, >> the point >> the point was that uh no agenda >> people are full of crap. >> Uh drunken chicken is what we're gonna call it. Not ki I mean cocoon. The no agenda show by the way. Adam Curry and John C D'vorak Thursdays and Sundays 2 p.m. or on your favorite place you can find podcast on YouTube. Uh oh. Oh by the way speaking about podcast I think next week. I think it's next week. You know who my guest is next week who has not been on the discipline investor in a long time? >> Who? >> Peter Schiff. >> Oh, good old Peter Schiff. >> You think he's negative about something? >> Well, if he's not, then you got something. You'd have a scoop. >> Yeah, I would. I'm sure he likes gold. Sure he hates Bitcoin. >> Oh, he's going to like gold. And the market's going to is at the turning point. It's going to go It's going to hit the skids. >> 60 70%. >> Yeah. >> Easy. >> Easy. Well, let's talk about the >> always entertaining. You know, the funny thing is he's so convinced. He convinces himself so well that it's it's very it's fun to listen to him. >> Oh, he's he's he's >> he's not boring. >> He's religious about it. He is he is he's he's in he's not messing around. Let's talk about this dimminimous exemption uh which allowed shipments valued under $800 to enter the US duty-free came to an end last Friday. So small businesses like Etsy, eBay, Shopify for example, which note did uh we did uh short eBay for our client accounts last week on on knowledge that this was happening. Uh they relied on the provision to support their marketplace businesses. So for nearly it's like 10 years now, shipments valued under $800 were allowed to enter the country virtually duty-free and with less oversight. Now, the end of this could cost US consumers about $10 billion, about $136 for family, according to a paper that was recently done. Um, and >> yeah, that's assuming they're going to keep buying this junk. >> Yeah. Well, >> that the big assumption is it's going to cost people because they're going to no matter what happens, they're going to keep buying junk that is it seems to me to always be a a product that well, you know, if I do if I don't have to buy it, I won't buy it. or the or there's going to be a new business that crops up to bulk. Well, I guess that wouldn't change it because >> well, you know, one of the things with these these site, you know, the the the the minimus has not been eliminated completely. They just dropped it to $100. So, instead of buying $800 worth of or $790 worth of junk, you buy a bunch of 90 buck packages and instead of one, you buy 10. And so, you're bringing in, you know, $900 worth of stuff. Anyway, >> yeah. So, instead of a doll that comes in that's worth uh, you know, $200, let's just say number, you're going to get an arm. You're going to get a leg, >> right? Well, although to be honest, I don't >> see a doll. >> If you ever see a doll, Yes. There you go. If you ever see a doll that's 200 bucks in one of these sites, Teimu, Sheen, these other guys, I'd be stunned. Everything is five bucks. >> Yeah. Now, here's what I thought was interesting and the reason why they're really playing this up pretty well. There's some research that has shown that a good amount of drugs make their way into the US in the dimminimous packages. >> Yes, that's that's the problem. So, a a fact sheet published on July 30th by the White House said 90% of all cargo seizures in fiscal 202 uh 24 included 98% of narcotic seizures and 97% of intellectual property right seizures. We're going to put a pin in that for a second. Originated as dimminimous shipments. What is a 97% of intellectual right property seizures? It has to be uh bootleg DVDs and uh bootleg uh Microsoft Windows uh bootleg software. >> Do they have software like that anymore? >> Well, the AutoCAD I think is still provide you still get that you know through a disc. >> I don't even have a computer. I mean >> but in Asia they had they can they they use this tech. Yeah. Yeah. I don't have I don't have DVD players on my machines generally, but you can always plug one in. Uh I don't that's the only thing I can think of unless it's bootleg books. I mean Scott Adams was bitching about the fact that he on Amazon they were selling copies of a book that he did that he knows weren't done by the publisher. They were just >> Oh, I've seen a lot of these. I've seen a lot of these. I've had several authors on my show that talk about how look at this book that's not mine. They basically took got my book and they just republished it and nobody stops them. >> Right. >> So, >> and then Amazon sells them. >> Yeah. Exactly. >> Yep. We have Thailand that is making uh US politics look calm. Thailand's constitutional court dismissed Prime Minister B Shinowatra. Shin Shinawatra. Yep. on Friday for an ethics violation and another crushing blow to that political dynasty. She became the fifth premier in 17 years to be removed by a constitutional court. >> Uh which it is possible that that was politically charged. >> You think? >> Yeah. Or they're just really freaking bad people. There's this this there's a conservatives and the royal generals which I don't know. Anyway, here's some more exciting news. I actually thought this was something I'm like, hey, I like this idea. Um, US is moving ahead with its America by design initiative. The order establishes established by the national design studio and the role of chief design officer is uh being created to facilitate design improvements in both digital and physical federal spaces. So one of the big things they're going to be doing is >> Trump >> Huh? >> Trump >> Yeah. They're going to be updating federal websites. >> Yeah. They're they're making a big fuss about these ugly websites. >> Yeah. They're they're ugly. They're as ugly as windmills. Let's get rid of them. So, currently, but here's a bigger issue. I I I I wouldn't care so much about them being ugly. It's the usability. >> Yeah. Functionality is more important than than aesthetics when it comes to a website. >> Right. >> So, currently only 6% of federal websites are rated good for mobile performance. 45% of federal websites are not mobile friendly. 45%. >> Yeah. That makes no sense in today's era. >> Yeah. They've they've had these conversion uh this conversion code. So you can take a a computer website that looks a certain way on a computer and then as soon as it hits a sees a mobile phone it changes the design completely. It's not rocket science. It it's been around for at least I don't know 15 20 years. >> Yep. >> Uh following up on Spirit Airlines not looking good. Nope. >> Wow. Oh, what an operation this is. >> Frontier Airline, we talked about I think we talked about this last week that Oh, maybe we didn't. They're they're pretty much aiming to, I guess, just finally just cut the legs and the head off of Spirit Airlines. They went to 20 different major market sectors and decided to add routes there, the same ones that Spirit has their main routes from and going to undercut their pricing. Talk about just I mean, you know, kick a guy when he's down there. the second chapter 11 bankruptcy in 6 months and this was interesting I read the president's letter uh and he said uh blah blah he said okay then he says we are going through the chapter 11 process just like many of the companies in the airline industry have making it normalized that airlines go through bankruptcies >> I guess they do once A few do. >> No, they they have. Many of them have. >> Yeah, but you don't want to. That's a bonehead excuse. >> Yeah. He said, you know, of course your miles are good, your airlines, everything's fine. We're just going to go through this little process. We're just going to go through this little process. I got to tell you what a what they were burning through $245 million a quarter. Frontier Airlines, no no picnic either, by the way. They're in the red as well. But Frontier Airlines popping pretty nicely because they fig I guess everybody figures if Spirit Airline does go out and Frontier was ahead of the curve getting their 20 routes in, people will just switch right over. >> Yeah. >> Well, nobody wants to fly Spirit. I've never I've never flown. >> I like Spirit. >> You do? >> They're based here in Fort Lauderdale. >> Huh? >> I have flown several times on Spirit. I've never had a problem. And there's like a a some of them are different, but usually you buy a ticket and there's like an $80 upgrade charge for the front seats. They have like big comfy seats in the front and free booze. >> Free booze. >> Free booze. >> I thought everything costs money. >> No, now you pay 80 bucks. You get like they just like literally hand you like four bottles of Cheetos to take off. Maybe that's why they're going bankrupt. But uh it's a wonderful I've always had a good experience. >> Well, that's interesting. Now, I knew the ex CEO and I would drop his name here and there, so maybe that helped. >> Well, I don't think it's going to help on the overall experience. They're not going to take all the unruly passengers off just because you dropped the CEO's name. >> No, I was in the front. I'm saying in the front they treat you like that. >> For 80 bucks. It's not like I'm some, you know, crazy spender. 80 bucks. I highly recommend if you have a chance before they go bankrupt and out of business entirely, fly them. Obviously, bring a parachute with you, but nonetheless, fly them. All right, some AI news. AI news. Alibaba is developing a new AI chip. It's specifically for inferencing rather than training, but Alibaba will still use semiconductors from other vendors like Nvidia. This is, you know, ne the next level is inference, right? From where we are now, large language models, regurgitate it. Then we got to do inference. >> Yeah. Inference. It's a good word. >> Inference. What? What? It's thought. It's it's what what do you call it? >> Inference. It's a inference like an inference engine. It makes it it takes a bunch of data and and it makes assumptions. And you know what happens when you make an assumption? >> Oh. Oh, yeah. That was And you know what? Do you know what? Do you know what show that was from and the character? >> No. >> That was The Odd Couple, I believe, and that was Felix Hunger. >> Oh, I think this is an old vaudeville joke. >> Oh, wait. You make an ass out of you and me. >> Yeah, >> but uh if we do the the infant part of the AI is the AI. The regurgitation is just uh compilation and that's what everybody's looking for is the inference where you can ask a question. It can actually re think for itself. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Sure. >> I I'm not saying it's going to do this. I'm saying the theory. So um more AI artificial intelligent company anthropic said on Tuesday today now valued a it's now valued at $183 billion post the money it took it recently over twice as much it was earlier this year. There's a lot of investor enthusiasm on these tech startups. The new valuation jumped from 61 billion in March but raised 3.5 billion. Now it's valued at 1 point. So it's in March it was 61. Wait, where are we? Three months. That means it it tripled. It it tripled in three months. >> That's the way to that's a winner. >> I think that that's something. Estimates that the company will be pulling in about 5 billion in revenue from what they're doing recently. So they got some earnings coming in. So that's good. Tesla news that European sales are sliding down 40% in the past year. And yet the P the forward PE is around 200. >> Yeah. Well, that's probably probably because of their India sales. Numbers are in. Reportedly sold few cars in India since it launch in July of 25. They did 600 total cars being ordered since last month. That's it. Um, Craft Hind splitting into two companies. So, we're going to go back to Craft and Hinds. I guess one's going to be focused on groceries, the other on sauce and spreads. They It's They came together. Now they're going back apart. Warren Buffett not happy. It's a bad move. Shares dropped 7% on the news. And let's get into the meat of flirty chat bots, shall we? Meta Facebook um has appropriated the names and likeness of celebrities including Taylor Swift, Scarlett Johansson, Anne Hathaway, and Selena Gomez to create dozens of flirty social media chat bots without permission. >> Now, once >> that's that's a lawsuit waiting to happen. >> Yeah. Reuters said, "Hey, what are you doing? Look at this medicine." Oh. Oh, we we'll take him off. They said uh its AI created inappropriate images violating his policies. I guess these were more than flirty. You know what I'm saying? And um legal experts of course as you mentioned are saying that Meta's using of these likenesses may have violated celebrities publicity publicity rights. But what's what's interesting is you're going to hear more and more of this. Not so much about the flirty chat bots, but you're going to hear about I I think you're going to hear about um blame it on the AI. >> Yeah, Trump did bring this up his press conference. >> What'd he say? >> Well, they brought up the fact that he was supposed to be dead. >> Oh, yeah. What was that about? >> Well, nobody knows. It was just a bunch of wishful thinking by the part of Democrats. And so in the process of that, they showed uh a or one of the reporters showed Trump a video of how that appeared that they were throwing stuff out of the White House windows, which was I guess a viral video going around. And Trump said that's not possible. That's has to be AI because those windows are bulletproof glass. They're 600 lb and they don't open. They're sealed shut. all the windows in the White House >> and which and then he brought up some anecdotes about how Melania was bitching about how stuffy it gets in there. And um he then he says it's AI. He says uh then he Trump went on and said and you know the funny thing is in the future people are going to I can blame AI for this but if something true happens we can blame AI. He says everyone's going to be blaming AI for whether it happened or not. >> I agree. and she was very right up on the on the social sociology of it. I thought that was fascinating. >> Yep. I think it's very very uh >> a very uh big thing that we're going to have to worry about because you could just, you know, say, oh, you know, the old, oh, who released this information? It was fake and then it's really a trial balloon. >> I think you just have to assume it's all fake. >> Everything's fake. Everything's fake. We're fake. >> No, we're not fake. That's And I think people can figure that out. >> They can. Uh let's talk about uh what you want to do to make sure that we're not fake. And that is to help the show. Help the show with a little gift, a little donation, a little help, a little helping hand. Uh it goes a long way. A long way. Whether it's $5, $20, $500. We need your help. Please go over to dhplug.com. You go to any place on the particular uh site, the show notes page. This is show number 767. And donate. little button that says donate which let you donate. So please donate. Thank you for your attention in this matter. Let's talk about the winner of the close to the pin for Proctor and Gamble comes in uh very close. The average price for entry was 159 with everybody. The actual price in the final price was 15704. And Dean W is a fisherman by the way an a fisherman. He sent me some pictures today of stripers in Cape Cod. Uh he's the winner. 29 cents away. >> That's pretty good. >> It's.18%. But look at that little list that I gave you there. You see that? >> Yeah. >> Who's number four? >> Who is number four? Let me go back to the list. List list. Um, >> he's only 39.39% away. >> Yeah. Marcus. >> Marcus. You know him? >> Yeah. He's been he's always on the list. Well, the thing is he sits in his thatch roof house. >> Yeah, he's the thatch roof guy. >> Sits in his Thatch roof house and he What is he doing? He's either he maybe fixing some that thatch needs a lot of work. Needs a lot of work. So, he's doing that and he's uh picking stock prices. That's what he does. Pretty good. >> He should have a newsletter. >> He should. Yeah. The Thatch Ruth The Thatch Roof Times. I like it. All right, let's talk about the game. Here we go. This is a game that we play. It's not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. It's not a recommendation of any kind. Nothing on the show should be considered investment advice or a recommendation. If you choose to invest in any of the stocks mentioned, you should know that it may carry risk along with the risk of a loss of principle. You should also seek out professional financial advice for your particular situation. We assume no risk as these are not to be considered recommendations. Horowitz accompany myself or John Cavor may invest in any of the securities mentioned and we'll disclose that on the website under the weekly stock pick section. You can go to dhunplug.com and see all the names we discussed in the segment along with the performance information from the date discussed as well as any additional important disclosures. >> You know, I'm looking at this list for a second. Looks very good. Uh, a couple things got kicked, right? CVR energy. >> Yeah, one of mine got my the top the top in the leaderboard got kicked. >> Got kicked off. >> CVR energy. >> Yep. Now I'm the top. I'm kingpin with uh now you got two two of the winners. >> Two two big ones. But you know, look at look at Wayfair for example down list we picked out last week. That was the short due to the furniture tariffs. But now tariffs may be illegal. It was up 4% today. You'd think that John that the tariffs will be reinstated, right? No question. >> No question in my mind. >> That's time to double down on wfair, right? You would think. >> Well, >> who knows? >> I guess. >> Yeah. Things are looking pretty good overall though. Um Starbucks up 2.69. Constellation Energy up 1%, Nvidia up 20%. Unusual, well, Subversive up 6%. Um, what else is big? Advanced Micro Devices, the short is up 7 and a half%. Apple shorts off by about 8% and by tomorrow I'll be off about 10% because it was up after hours. >> Yeah, I'll be kicked. >> Yeah. What else? Viking Therapeutics, >> GLP Oral is up 11.7. I have no picks for this week. >> I do. >> What do you got? >> I have a I don't know how to what to what to call this pick. I'm calling it a screw ball code pick because it has to be some code that somebody's doing because this is an insider trade on a company. Uh let me go find it symbol. I I think it's I Hold on. Let me get it. Uh I I R I X >> Iridex. >> Yeah. Iridex. It's a$134. >> Dollar 34. And the And the insider is the chief financial officer. >> Ah >> and he bought 625 shares. >> Really? Yeah, $838 in in a total purchase. Now, when you're looking up and down the insiders list, there's usually $12 million worth $5 million worth at least a million. And here we have an insider trader buying $600.38 or 800, I'm sorry, $800.38 worth of this stock. I'm thinking it's a penny stock, so it's like what what how much, you know, how bad can it be? And I just was just totally fascinated by this trade because what what are you think? What is this? It makes no sense. So I'm in >> in on the screw ball code. Uh 20%. >> Yeah, you can put 20% on it. Sure. >> All right. All right. That's good. Perfect timing. One hour on the button. >> Okay. Great. >> So, uh I will uh see you again next week, sir. Have a great one. >> That's right. Tuesday. See you. Bye. >> You've been listening in on a conversation with John C. D'vorak and Andrew Horowitz. Hope to be with you again soon. Bye-bye. >> Now, I'm not broke, but badly bent. I'm not down to my last scent, cuz I got a dollar, but it's my last dollar bill. Yes, sir. In my pocket there's a dent. All my dough is nearly spent, but I got a dollar and it's my last dollar bill. Oh, I'd love just one more buck. Fortune left me by chance. Now, here's a hint. I feel like a men. You can hardly tell by a glance. I don't care. No millionaire can give me the Isis stack. Cuz I got a dollar. My last dollar bill. This podcast is intended forformational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle and past performance is not indicative of future results. 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DHUnplugged #767: Flirty Chatbots
Summary
Transcript
This episode is sponsored by Interactive Brokers. And are you looking to trade gold, silver, platinum, and palladium with low cost to and total global access? Well, at Interactive Brokers, you can trade spot metals, futures, and options on major exchanges all from one powerful platform. Get efficient pricing, deep liquidity, and institutional-grade tools at your fingertips. Whether you're hedging, investing, or even diversifying, Interactive Brokers puts the world of metals in your hands. Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC, and futures are not suitable for all investors. US Gold is only available to legal residents of the United States. US Gold is not available to legal residents of Arizona, Montana, New Hampshire, and Rhode Island. Visit interactivebrokers.com/medals and start trading smarter. Hello and welcome to D'vorak Horowitz Unplugged, an hour-long discussion of activity in the financial markets around the world featuring columnist John C. D'vorak and money manager Andrew Horowitz. This conversation is casual and unrehearsed. Let's join John and Andrew now. >> I'm John C. D'vorak >> and I'm Andrew Horowitz. >> And it's the 2nd of September, 2025. >> Summer is over. Labor Day is uh just a day in the past. How did you enjoy your weekend and what did you barbecue? >> Uh actually chicken >> a whole >> I didn't really barbecue. Well, let's see. F. No. No. On. No, I cooked uh cocoa van as a matter of fact. I didn't barbecue anything. >> Yeah, I could have barbecued. Do you have those kind of cocoon dishes to properly put them in and make it look nice and they bake and all that? >> No. >> What do you make it in Pyrex? >> What do I make the cocoa van in? >> Yeah. What don't you have to bake it? >> No. >> How do you make your cocoa van? >> It's basically boiled chicken. >> That's it. in wine >> with a lot of seasoning and onions and and carrots and uh celery and bay leaves and uh thyme and uh >> soup. >> A lot of wine. >> It's a soup. >> And also some chicken bullion to make it more chickeny. >> Yeah. The little cheat code that works really well and goes a long way, right? >> Yeah. If you want a good cheat, by the way, it's hard to come by, but you can find it. I I'm pretty sure the late uh Bully of New York City, Bully Bakery, that superstar chef that was there, uh I'm sure he did this. I'm absolutely convinced of it. It's where I got the idea. Uh when you make any bananas dish, throw in a lot of banana extract. It just really does the trick number. >> There's some interesting things like that you could do like that. But, you know, I found out something for years. I had this close but not there approach to making a clams like a linguinian clam sauce just wasn't there. And one day somewhere I was actually in Monttokan and somebody says you know what you got to do. I'm like well what's that? You got to chop up some celery in there. I'm like well why would I do something like that? That sounds stupid. Like uh try it. I don't know what happened. It just it's perfection. Lots of garlic. white wine, all that, you know, good olive oil, saute the clams, good clam juice. >> Are this is the celery cooked to it to softness? >> Yeah, you s you saute it with the with the garlic with the little bit of shallots with the wine and the clams. It's I don't know what happens. >> So, are they soft in in >> Yes. >> soft? Almost not even noticeable. >> Yeah. Interesting. >> I don't know what it does. >> Okay. >> That's probably something. >> It does something. It changes the flavor just ever so slightly. I also had something I never had before this weekend. I had acai, which I don't know why. >> You never had acai? >> No. >> Huh. >> I didn't even know exactly what it was until this weekend. >> Berry. >> Yeah. I know. It was >> were super sour berry. That's comes out of Brazil. >> It was uh there was an acai bar that had all these toppings and I said, "Hey, you know, I'm lactose intolerant." I'm like, "Does that have does that have uh any any any dairy or milk or lactose?" Nope. I'm like, "All right, put me in coach. I'm ready to go." So, I made myself like a blueberry and strawberry and topped it with a little bit of I don't know, some kind of Nutella topping or something. Made it like a a sundae out of acai. It was tolerable. >> It's a very Yes. Yes. Intense. It's very intense, but I like it. It's very tasty. >> Yeah. It's better than that tart yogurt that people eat. That tart yogurt that's just awful. You ever have that tart yogurt? It's just it's just frozen tart yogurt. Gh. >> I don't know why. >> I've never had frozen tart yogurt. >> Yeah, it's it's a it's a it's a female thing. >> It's not out here. >> It's a female thing. The guys don't There is nobody in that store that is a man. >> But they line up. It must be some flavoring that they could deal with. All right. Off off with the food. On with the finance. Tariffs deemed illegal. That's some of the things that are going on over the last few days. and they're fighting like hell to either get them overturned by a nonpartisan court because the court that you know the the the uh the court that recently deemed them illegal or was totally partisan and uh they're going to try to go to the Supreme Court which of course is not partisan at all and get the the ruling. So that's happening in the next few days. And if that doesn't work, there's always plan B. Have you heard about plan B? Well, there's a plan B and a plan C, I understand. But yes, I' I think I've heard a plan B. >> Plan B. Nobody really knows exactly what it is, but it's plan B. So, that's going to possibly >> I think it's just simply going to Congress, >> right? That's the way they should have done it to begin with, but they wanted to get in. Well, they would have had a lot of uh much more extended period of time until anything was done. >> They'd still be talking about it. >> Yep. Uh so much for rates coming down. We talked about this last week with the idea that POW is becoming a little bit more inclined to cut rates rate cut hopes for midepptember for at least 25 basis points, possibly 50, but definitely uh it looks like the odds are for a 25 basis point cut. And lo and behold, just like we talked about, people had a serious misunderstanding. That's an understatement of the idea that oh, you know, if we have lower rates, it's going to bring down mortgage rates and it's going to make make housing much more affordable. Backfire. We had rates go up. As a matter of fact, long rates uh on the 30-year mortgage are hitting recent highs. The short-term rates come down a bit. So, that yield curve is going. But since last week, we talked about the same thing last week, you and I. since last week the uh rates are even higher on the on the long bond. There's a lot of reasons for that. Uh main thing of course is tariffs now. Tariffs that were deemed illegal doesn't help. Less money to pay off the enormous deficit and therefore the bond vigilantes could be, you know, coming out. We'll talk about that. We're going to announce the winner of the close to the pin cup for Proctor and Gamble. some familiar names in the top five. Once again, >> yeah, there's some guys that are really talented. >> I don't even understand how they do it. I feel like they they hacked us somehow. That's the only way I can think of it. >> No, that's possible. You know, you can't trust anybody nowadays. >> I don't know. I mean, I'm certain that they wait probably longer than anybody else. They set their alarm clock. >> You don't have to be certain. You can look it up. >> I could look it up. That's a good point. I do have date stamps and time stamps. I just never felt it was that important. You know, if it if they're cheating and they're getting over on us, then God bless them. But >> it is a stock market after all. >> Exactly. It goes hand in hand. Uh blame it on AI, the new excuse. We got flirty chat bots that are causing all the problems, it seems. No longer do we have to worry about the weather. We're going to blame it on the chat bots, the flirty ones, by the way. And uh you know, things that happen bad are also being blamed. things like um you know suicides, mass killings. It's it's like who who was Son of Sam? Remember Son Son of Sam? >> His dog is in New York. His dog told him to kill all those people. >> Yeah. Yeah. Right. That's right. The dog. The talking dog. >> Yeah. The dog told him to kill everybody. This is like what's going on right now with uh with with AI. People are getting too comfortable. My AI have been I'll be honest with you. I use on my I I I let you listen to this once. I use on my phone the audio version, if you will, the mobile version of uh Copilot, and I got to tell you, I'm annoyed with them. >> I took Copilot off my machine. >> Copilot I like cuz it's chat it's it's chat GBT. That's the backbone. Well, it's I I I tend to use uh my go-to AI is usually Grock, which is a chat GPT spin, you know, fork, >> and I use Perplexity for longer dialogues. >> The problem is that Do you do this on your mobile? >> No, I don't care. I have a phone. It's in a drawer. >> All right. Well, in in the mobile, >> I glue to the phone to >> On the mobile version, it's very easy. I say, "Look, do me a favor. tell me something. Give me a recipe for a cocoon or something like that. It will tell me. But it's, you know, the problem is it starts out. >> I wonder if it's anything like the recipes you get off of YouTube videos for basmati rice where there's not you can get 20 recipes and not one person is cooking it correctly. >> Right. You start here. We go. See? Turn this guy on here. Put on. Hello. What happened? So this guy comes on here. It's all too cheery. Way too cheery. Here we go. Hey, Andrea, you're back. What's on your mind? >> Yeah. What? Give me a good recipe for cocoon. What do you think? >> Cocoa is a timeless French dish. Perfect for impressing guests. Start by marinating chicken in red wine with herbs overnight. Then, brown the chicken. Simmer with onions, carrots, mushrooms, and bacon. After an hour or so of low and slow cooking, you'll have a rich, flavorful stew. Simple yet elegant. Ready to try it out? >> Wow. No mention of the fact cocoa van means chicken cooked in wine. There's not one mention of wine except marinating in red wine which will make the dish look terrible. Okay. Yeah, that's what you get. >> Well, not only that, he's he's he's too optimistic. It's annoying, you know. Well, you like to get ready with that. I'll come back. How was your cocoon? You know, I was like, oh, dude. You know, it's just way too much optim. I said to him lately, I've asked questions. I said, "Stop. Just give me the facts, none of the fluff." Because there's a lot of fluff. >> But we're blaming it on. >> This is This to me is just another example of how the modern uh smartphone introduced in 2007 is ruining the culture, the civilization, and is going to be the death of us all. >> Yeah. Well, on that optimistic note, let's talk about markets. Uh Nvidia earnings, uh the high point maybe for a while. We saw the earnings come out last Wednesday. We have some of the numbers. Uh August is over. That's eight months now done and markets are solidly in the green. Another fine month for markets. >> Yeah. It's the end of that. >> Yeah. Well, September is September, October. Some of the greatest crashes of all time have happened in >> Yeah. September is always generally speaking September is the worst month for the S&P 500 historically. >> Yeah. Very bad. And and one time I asked what's the worst month? Uh I said I asked a chat GP said what what is the worst month I said something let me think I said I said what's the worst month for the markets on average and he came back and said October is the worst month because in September it's a terrible uh averages or something. I'm like what what what um >> October is the worst because September is the worst. >> Um AI news we have valuations to the moon. And there's some things that are coming out uh possibly either going to be IPOing or money going in that is quite extraordinary. Uh let's talk about Nvidia earnings first, shall we? I know you're very excited about this. This is from last Wednesday after the market closed. I thought it was really interesting that this should have been there was expected to be a much wider swing in the possibility of you know if they miss if they make if they exceed and maybe you know six or 7% assumed rate of change on the print. It was like nothing happened. Nobody cared. Uh it's almost like it was priced to perfection. Earnings per share came in a$15 adjusted versus the dollar one. Sales growth this quarter uh they assumed are going to be above 50%. They're excited about that. Their overall earnings and revenue were better than expected. Revenue 46.7 billion. 46.06 billion estimated. Once you start getting these in these levels, you know, an extra 500 million doesn't really matter. They beat by 750 million dollars. Yeah, peanuts. >> Peanuts. Nothing. So, overall, the company revenue rose 56% in the quarter from 30 uh a little over 30 billion a year ago. Year-over-year revenue growth has now exceeded 50% for nine straight quarters dating back to mid 2023. That's pretty impressive. >> That's more than pretty impressive. That's a incredibly impressive. stock opened Thursday at 180, now trading about 168. So, it's lower than where it was. And that has to do with the Well, I'm wondering if there was an impact of oh, is that as good as it gets? Which again is good, right? That's good. It's great. I mean, it's it's more than that. I'm not I'm not downplaying this. It's unbelievable. But the question I think is have we reached that Dell moment where >> I'm not sure that that this this downturn had didn't have something to do with the AMD IBM deal. >> They've decided to partner up for this whole uh >> you think that the the uh competition could be something? >> Yeah, it has to be. >> There's plenty of news of competition. I mean, >> yeah, but IBM and and Yeah, but we're talking about legacy competition. >> Okay. >> Not some newbies that just showed up. We had IBM, you know, >> even though I I think as legacy, I think their their company stinks. But, uh, >> when's the last time IBM did something you're like, "Wow, that's good." And not related to Red Hat. >> It's not No, not within recent memory. >> What does IBM even do? I I think services. >> Yeah. >> Maybe they have a cloud play. >> Maybe >> exactly why the stock is so high is beyond me. But they they had a lot of uh >> That's because the Red Hat that was the Red Hat integration. That's >> Yeah, Red Hat. >> That's that's that's things went well once that happened. But with Nvidia, there was some concern over the data center revenue declining 1% from the previous quarter uh due to $4 billion less in sales of H2O chips. Supposedly, the H2O chips, they're not including in any of their guidance either. The H2O chips I'm talking about are the ones that they sell to China. They're not including that in any of their revenue projections for the good reason that they can't because those can't really be sold to China, the normal ones. So, good news, good stuff. I do wonder if the markets finally reached the peak and said, you know, this may be a near-term high. We need a rest. We saw all the good that we can get. I mean, even though after hours tonight, Google was pretty much got good news in that lawsuit where they don't have to divest of their uh browser with Chrome Chrome browser, but they have some other things about monopolistic behavior with their search, but generally speaking, it wasn't what people feared. Stock up about 8% after the close, >> Google, which brings up the NASDAQ 100 nicely. We have some nuclear energy news. I know you're excited about this. The Dwayne Arnold nuclear plant northwest of Cedar Rapids, Iowa, is pressing ahead with plans to restart operations by the end of the decade after shutting down for economic reasons. >> Do why are they rushing? It's >> right around the corner. I mean I what what you you know a lot more than this than I would which I don't know if that means anything but when you decommission a nuclear plant obviously a lot has to go into shutting that thing down right because you know there's uh the nuclear the uranium stuff you got to do this you got to do that it's a very long process and it's tedious >> right so my question is the restart obviously is intense. It's not an easy process. >> No. And it obviously takes half of a decade to do it. >> Do you know what's involved? >> No, I don't. I have no idea, >> but I'm sure it's mostly safety stuff that's involved. I wonder if they have to get new new active uranium again >> or if it's the stuff there is still all you have to do is >> No, they they have to get there's nothing there. They have to think is decommissioned. There shouldn't be any radio >> uh anything radioactive in the place. >> Well, Dwayne is owned by a new new well it's run by New Energy uh new next era energy. Where am I with that? That's the old FPNL Ne. Uh Dwayne Arnold would follow similar restart plan for the Palisades nuclear plant in Michigan and the three-mile island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania which planned to resume operations later this year and in 2027. Point is big change in the economics. I mean they shut it down for two reasons. One was the economics. Two was the safety issues right or concerns. Safety concerns >> that would be the main concern. So in the last 5 years though, what a big change in the economics and safety concerns not being a problem anymore. So they were wrong to shut him down. >> Yeah, I'd say. Well, there was public pressure because of, you know, just a chicken littles out there running around their head cut off worried sick about radiation. Oh, these terrible nuclear plants and then green. But they're not, you know, they're the greenest of the green to be honest about it, but they didn't, you know, there weren't wasn't wind, wasn't uh solar. I mean, they take they've taken stuff offline that is uh like in California, they take they and Washington state, too. They both they've all taken dams offline, which is what could be greener than a dam that produces electricity? >> You're hurting the fish. You're hurting the fish. >> Yeah. Mind you, eating the fish is not a problem, but hurting the fish somehow, not letting them swim or whatever, >> even though the fish had all kinds of workarounds and they did just fine. >> They do just fine all the time. >> There are so many stories. >> Fish, they're not Yeah, >> I can tell you stories. I I once had a a house on a lake. They put in sterile carp because carp can be very uh problem. Oh, no. No, I'm sorry. Sterile tilapia. Tilapia. >> Oh, those are the worst. Yeah, they're invasive. >> Invasive. So, they put in the sterile tilapia because they wanted this round of tilapia to be invasive and get rid of some of the uh the excess growth, eat through it. Guess what happened? They weren't so sterile, it seems. They ate through everything on the lake and the lake is pretty much dead now because there's no excess cover, greenery, etc. It's lost its oxygen because the the top are just out of control. Well, that's one way of getting rid of the tilapia. >> Yeah. Yeah. That they they killed themselves. >> Crazy. But, uh, that's good news. And I think that, uh, we're better for it. And and, um, I I I'm still in favor of any and all, uh, this idea that, you know, I don't like, you know, one versus the other. I think if we want to have wind energy because it's expensive, that's why we want to kill it. But if it is something that does work to provide, you know what? If you want to buy it, you can buy it. Nobody said you can't buy it. If you want to spend the money on that or solar or whatever, as long as it's safe. I think at this point of uh where we are in the world, I think it's high time that we realize that any and all is a better energy plan. I think we should start that any and all. There's drill, drill, drill, drill, baby, drill. Right. >> I like any and all. >> Any and all. All right. somebody in the PR community out there. Let's start to get any and all uh energy. Any and all energy. We should start like that as a company. All right. USA travel. Who needs pesky visitors anyway? Let's be honest. Do we need those those those Canadians that come down and don't tip and can't drive? Do we want those people that are, you know, dirty and filthy? No, we don't want Who needs a No. No. Well, good news. Overseas travel to the US fell 3.1% year-onear in July to 19 million visitors according to US government data and it was the fifth month of decline this year defying expectations at 2025 would see annual in in inbound visitors finally surpass the preandemic level of 79 million. One of the big things happening right now is a new visa integrity fee on incoming travelers from many countries. Have you heard this? >> Yeah. Yeah. They want to charge 250 bucks to show up. I mean, I don't see how this is different than a lot of the like the exit fee in Japan, which you have to pay money to get out of there. Uh, seems like the similar kind of thing. >> They just jacked the prices up to go to the Bahamas by boat. It used to be 150 bucks to $300 depending on the size of your boat. And you get a we'll call it a visa. We'll call it a 90-day visa to be in the Bahamas in and out. Right now it's I think it's a 60-day. It's $500 minimum. >> What? >> Yep. 500 bucks to take my >> If I'm going to go to the Bahamas >> on my boat, >> spend my money, my hard-earned American cash in the Bahamas at their restaurants and whatever cabarets and all the stuff they have in the Bahamas. I have to pay 500 bucks just to have the privilege of going there to spend my money there. If you go by boat, if you go on my boat or someone's boat, that's where you have to pay. It's only 50 miles from here where I am. >> That's a jip. >> Yeah. Stupid. And they charge you an anchoring fee even if you're not anchoring. And you have to get a fishing license. And there's other rules. You have a boat over 50. >> Even if you're not fishing, >> there's I I don't know about that. They just force everything upon you. And it has to renew much much faster than you did in the past. And then there's a new AIS requirement. AIS is a I don't know if you're familiar with this, but on the GPS radar unit that you have, your boat can do a transmission of AIS, which is >> I don't know what it stands for, >> something signal, >> something signal, something automated information signal, maybe >> something. >> And it basically says, okay, my name, my boat is this, and here's my length, etc. And it shows where you are on the radar or on the maps. >> Yes. Yeah. On the map, >> you are required boats over 50 ft are required now to have that on their boat transmitting all the time when you're in the Bahamas. Even if you're at the dock or not even there, even if you're not there, even if you just close your boat up and leave for a week, has to be running, if not a thousand fine. They went a little cuckoo. So >> with this new visa integrity fee $250 total fees visa cost >> we're we're we're a deal compared to these >> gougers >> right the extra charge raised the total visa cost to $442 for non visa waiver countries like Mexico, Argentina, India, Brazil and China which is kind of the bricks right? >> Yeah. >> So they're going to have to be 442. In China, arrivals have remained muted since the pandemic with July numbers still 53% below the 2019 levels. That's a lot. >> India visa fees are also threatening the travelers from there. Visitors are down 2.4% this year driven by a near 18% drop in students. That was purposeful obviously. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs, tariffs. H we talk about this forever years. I feel like we're talking about this, which we have been. Um, a divided US appeals court ruled on Friday that most of Donald Trump's tariffs are illegal, undercutting the Republican president's use of the levies as a key part of their overall income stream for, you know, balancing trade. Trump was upset. He said, uh, that the the decision was highly partisan. He says if these tariffs ever went away, it would be a total disaster for the country. So there's a big national economic policy tool and that's a problem. So now it goes to the Supreme Court, I think as early as maybe tomorrow, the next day, which is pretty cool because I thought the Supreme Court like had a pretty stacked schedule and they just get this squeeze. >> There's some expedited things that happened at the Supreme Court. >> Squeeze right in. So, the bond vigilantes that word's coming up again. This idea that uh the these listen the von Bon vigilantes is not like what was his name? Chuck. Uh who was the vigilante in that that movie? Chuck. Uh he had a mustache. He >> Yeah, I don't know Chuck. >> You know him? You know Chuck? Who was the Old movie vigilante Chuck. >> Charles Bronson. >> Charles Bronson. Yes. In Deathwish, 1974, man becomes a vigilante after his wife was murdered. He was uh played the the role of Paul Kersy. >> Yeah. He played Charles Bronson played that character in about 10 movies. Mhm. >> I mean, it wasn't the same guy, same name or same circumstance, but it was the same character. >> Yeah, that's all he had, >> which was this tough guy who's going to shoot everybody that gets in his way. >> That's all he had >> as revenge. >> So, um, the Bond vigilantes, which are not, it's not like a group. It's not like, uh, I'd like to join. That's not how it works, you know. You don't get a patch. You don't get a a certificate. You don't nothing like that. There's no membership. >> Have a patch. >> Yeah. Hi, I'm Bon Vigilante. Bob the Bon Vigilante. Nice to meet you. This is a concept. It's like the bears. Who are the bears? Who are the bulls? Right? is this concept bond vigilantes are talking about you know that people are going to get turned off to buying the uh bonds of the US government because we have too much debt deficits are out of control uh economic uncertainty political uh craziness and chaos and they're not willing to put their money into US bonds anymore so the bond vigilantes um are now being thought of because well, are they going to really mess with with bonds and and start selling? If they do and rates go up and bonds go down, is that going to be a real problem for for stocks where you could pretty much say, "Okay, you know what? Hey, let me get an idea. We're eight months through the year. Okay, got 10% of my investment. I can get another 3% from a bond." Let's say this number. Just finish the year at 13%. I'm good to go. No risk. So, it's not 3%. It would be more like 2%. You know, or something like that. But, uh, there's the idea you have right there. I don't know. It looks like uh it's not there yet, but every time we start seeing this and the bonds tick up ever so slightly, the word bond vigilantes comes out again. >> It's like, >> yes, I noticed this. >> It's like a PR machine that out of somebody's basement like, "All right, time to time again." Yeah, >> there's something vigilantism is is something that is uh above the law. So there's there's nobody breaking the law by selling bonds. >> Right. Right. Yeah. It's a bunch of tough guys walking the streets. Hey, give me your bonds. Take them out. We got to shred them. Vigilantes. I love it. Well, uh it's that time of the show. talking about interest rates. I think it's important we just uh bring up something in particular related to interest rates because >> when's the meeting for this rate cut? >> Uh I want to say the 18th. Let's see. I think I feel like it's the um next uh 17th. >> And what's the current uh what's the current >> 4.5? Oh, the current bet is >> the current thinking in the street. >> Yeah, it's 25 basis point at least a 25 basis point cut. Some people are optimistic thinking it's going to be 50 because I think we talked about this, you and I, that there's this idea that it's the beginning of a rate cut cycle and always starts with something more of a bang, but I keep reminding people it is not. >> Already had the bang already happen. >> So >> that's your thesis. >> That's my thesis. >> So there's no chance it's going to be above 25 >> unless something really weird happens. I don't know what happens from now till then. I think you're probably right. It's going to be 25. >> And so that'll be priced in by the time it happens. >> Now, if the tariffs are in fact illegal and those go away. >> No, that's not going to happen. They'll find, you know, they'll go to the plan B or something that they this the tariffs are going to be around. I told Trump's whole it's his whole reason for being in as long and before the midterms he still got the Congress and he can you know he's he'll shame them into passing some law because it's their responsibility according to the uh constitution. Yeah, I agree. But I'm saying hypothetically, if in fact the tariffs were illegal, that would be the only give the Fed more ammunition to cut rates further because some of the things they're holding out on is the idea that tariffs are inflationary and that's causing a problem that they don't want to get. They don't want to cut and then all >> they're still waiting for the I told you so moment for the inflationary part of this. >> Waiting for waiting for GDAU. It'll happen one day and everybody's I told you I'll be there too soon. I'll >> Yeah. years from now. >> I knew it. I knew it. I was right. 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The best informed investors choose Interactive Brokers. Rates are subject to change. Interactive Brokers is a member of SIPC. compare how much more you could earn at ibkr.com/interest rates. It's pretty good. They get that automatically. That's something that they specialize in. Not holding back like a you know a zero interest rate or a 0 2 and you having to make decisions. It's uh you know they give you whatever the particular band is where your money is, they give you right the money. They give it to you right there. You don't have to figure out where to put your money. >> It's pretty it's pretty amazing. >> Yeah. Um let's see I mentioned mortgage ter mortgage rates by the way highest in months 10 years is approximately 4.3% on the 10ear treasury mortgage r um so something going on there dimminimus dus the mus I feel like that's something that I feel like that's something that Adam would say now that I just said it >> you like saying it right something like that Uh, it's like button. >> He doesn't say it that way. >> It's like button. >> No, he doesn't say button. >> No, he doesn't say that, but people say it. I'm saying he says it. >> They say but important. >> Important. Oh, yeah. Yeah. Important. Yeah. Important. >> Yeah. I heard commentators on TV professionals say important. >> I don't get it. Isn't it important to >> Yes, it's important. >> Say that the right way. >> It's a tent. T N T. Important. >> Important. Yeah. doesn't really take a skilled skilled observer or or arid addition to it doesn't take an ariodite person to say tent >> but they may want to axe you something. >> Yeah. You know that funny thing about a axe that actually is correct English if you go back to Cherion days in in England. >> All right, back it up. Reel it in, dude. What is a cherion? >> You know a chauer. the era of Chaucer predating I think it's a you know I don't know the the era but I think it's the >> it's like around Shakespeare >> it was spelled that way as they said X >> I think so I there's some documentation for this I read this is years ago I read this as a uh a kind of a curiosity and I said I I throw it out once in a while I just did it again I should I should u rebrief myself >> you should do a short substack on that where would that be if you I should I should re revisit this so I get the chasser part correctly in terms of what era he was involved in. >> People want to know this. >> They don't really care. I just I'm just showing off. >> So we got Cocoon >> showing off a cocoon and the proper way to do it and showing off with your early uh historical referencing. Let's just let's make cocoon is a is a chicken stew where the the boiling material is wine. This is like people that doesn't really have to be more complicated than that. You can just do that. I mean this is like a car you know what a carbonade is a carbonaro is. I don't know what carbonade. >> No carbonade is a is a beef stew and the cooking material is beer. >> Oh, I got you. >> So you got beef boron. It's a beef stew and the cooking material is red wine and then there's beef stew where the cooking material is just water and or broth >> and what about boiling meat? >> Yeah, ki a duck kofi is just boiled in its own fat. >> Well, ki I understand it to be fried in the fat of the duck. >> I always thought it was just cooked in. No, I think kung fi if you look into it is a is a piece of fatty duck fried and duck fat. >> Uh ki pronounced kung fi is a French cooking method involves slow cooking food typically meat like duck or chicken in its own fat or oil at a low temperature to preserve it resulting in extremely tender and flavorful food. >> Uh close enough. >> Yeah. Um what was the point? Oh, >> the point >> the point was that uh no agenda >> people are full of crap. >> Uh drunken chicken is what we're gonna call it. Not ki I mean cocoon. The no agenda show by the way. Adam Curry and John C D'vorak Thursdays and Sundays 2 p.m. or on your favorite place you can find podcast on YouTube. Uh oh. Oh by the way speaking about podcast I think next week. I think it's next week. You know who my guest is next week who has not been on the discipline investor in a long time? >> Who? >> Peter Schiff. >> Oh, good old Peter Schiff. >> You think he's negative about something? >> Well, if he's not, then you got something. You'd have a scoop. >> Yeah, I would. I'm sure he likes gold. Sure he hates Bitcoin. >> Oh, he's going to like gold. And the market's going to is at the turning point. It's going to go It's going to hit the skids. >> 60 70%. >> Yeah. >> Easy. >> Easy. Well, let's talk about the >> always entertaining. You know, the funny thing is he's so convinced. He convinces himself so well that it's it's very it's fun to listen to him. >> Oh, he's he's he's >> he's not boring. >> He's religious about it. He is he is he's he's in he's not messing around. Let's talk about this dimminimous exemption uh which allowed shipments valued under $800 to enter the US duty-free came to an end last Friday. So small businesses like Etsy, eBay, Shopify for example, which note did uh we did uh short eBay for our client accounts last week on on knowledge that this was happening. Uh they relied on the provision to support their marketplace businesses. So for nearly it's like 10 years now, shipments valued under $800 were allowed to enter the country virtually duty-free and with less oversight. Now, the end of this could cost US consumers about $10 billion, about $136 for family, according to a paper that was recently done. Um, and >> yeah, that's assuming they're going to keep buying this junk. >> Yeah. Well, >> that the big assumption is it's going to cost people because they're going to no matter what happens, they're going to keep buying junk that is it seems to me to always be a a product that well, you know, if I do if I don't have to buy it, I won't buy it. or the or there's going to be a new business that crops up to bulk. Well, I guess that wouldn't change it because >> well, you know, one of the things with these these site, you know, the the the the minimus has not been eliminated completely. They just dropped it to $100. So, instead of buying $800 worth of or $790 worth of junk, you buy a bunch of 90 buck packages and instead of one, you buy 10. And so, you're bringing in, you know, $900 worth of stuff. Anyway, >> yeah. So, instead of a doll that comes in that's worth uh, you know, $200, let's just say number, you're going to get an arm. You're going to get a leg, >> right? Well, although to be honest, I don't >> see a doll. >> If you ever see a doll, Yes. There you go. If you ever see a doll that's 200 bucks in one of these sites, Teimu, Sheen, these other guys, I'd be stunned. Everything is five bucks. >> Yeah. Now, here's what I thought was interesting and the reason why they're really playing this up pretty well. There's some research that has shown that a good amount of drugs make their way into the US in the dimminimous packages. >> Yes, that's that's the problem. So, a a fact sheet published on July 30th by the White House said 90% of all cargo seizures in fiscal 202 uh 24 included 98% of narcotic seizures and 97% of intellectual property right seizures. We're going to put a pin in that for a second. Originated as dimminimous shipments. What is a 97% of intellectual right property seizures? It has to be uh bootleg DVDs and uh bootleg uh Microsoft Windows uh bootleg software. >> Do they have software like that anymore? >> Well, the AutoCAD I think is still provide you still get that you know through a disc. >> I don't even have a computer. I mean >> but in Asia they had they can they they use this tech. Yeah. Yeah. I don't have I don't have DVD players on my machines generally, but you can always plug one in. Uh I don't that's the only thing I can think of unless it's bootleg books. I mean Scott Adams was bitching about the fact that he on Amazon they were selling copies of a book that he did that he knows weren't done by the publisher. They were just >> Oh, I've seen a lot of these. I've seen a lot of these. I've had several authors on my show that talk about how look at this book that's not mine. They basically took got my book and they just republished it and nobody stops them. >> Right. >> So, >> and then Amazon sells them. >> Yeah. Exactly. >> Yep. We have Thailand that is making uh US politics look calm. Thailand's constitutional court dismissed Prime Minister B Shinowatra. Shin Shinawatra. Yep. on Friday for an ethics violation and another crushing blow to that political dynasty. She became the fifth premier in 17 years to be removed by a constitutional court. >> Uh which it is possible that that was politically charged. >> You think? >> Yeah. Or they're just really freaking bad people. There's this this there's a conservatives and the royal generals which I don't know. Anyway, here's some more exciting news. I actually thought this was something I'm like, hey, I like this idea. Um, US is moving ahead with its America by design initiative. The order establishes established by the national design studio and the role of chief design officer is uh being created to facilitate design improvements in both digital and physical federal spaces. So one of the big things they're going to be doing is >> Trump >> Huh? >> Trump >> Yeah. They're going to be updating federal websites. >> Yeah. They're they're making a big fuss about these ugly websites. >> Yeah. They're they're ugly. They're as ugly as windmills. Let's get rid of them. So, currently, but here's a bigger issue. I I I I wouldn't care so much about them being ugly. It's the usability. >> Yeah. Functionality is more important than than aesthetics when it comes to a website. >> Right. >> So, currently only 6% of federal websites are rated good for mobile performance. 45% of federal websites are not mobile friendly. 45%. >> Yeah. That makes no sense in today's era. >> Yeah. They've they've had these conversion uh this conversion code. So you can take a a computer website that looks a certain way on a computer and then as soon as it hits a sees a mobile phone it changes the design completely. It's not rocket science. It it's been around for at least I don't know 15 20 years. >> Yep. >> Uh following up on Spirit Airlines not looking good. Nope. >> Wow. Oh, what an operation this is. >> Frontier Airline, we talked about I think we talked about this last week that Oh, maybe we didn't. They're they're pretty much aiming to, I guess, just finally just cut the legs and the head off of Spirit Airlines. They went to 20 different major market sectors and decided to add routes there, the same ones that Spirit has their main routes from and going to undercut their pricing. Talk about just I mean, you know, kick a guy when he's down there. the second chapter 11 bankruptcy in 6 months and this was interesting I read the president's letter uh and he said uh blah blah he said okay then he says we are going through the chapter 11 process just like many of the companies in the airline industry have making it normalized that airlines go through bankruptcies >> I guess they do once A few do. >> No, they they have. Many of them have. >> Yeah, but you don't want to. That's a bonehead excuse. >> Yeah. He said, you know, of course your miles are good, your airlines, everything's fine. We're just going to go through this little process. We're just going to go through this little process. I got to tell you what a what they were burning through $245 million a quarter. Frontier Airlines, no no picnic either, by the way. They're in the red as well. But Frontier Airlines popping pretty nicely because they fig I guess everybody figures if Spirit Airline does go out and Frontier was ahead of the curve getting their 20 routes in, people will just switch right over. >> Yeah. >> Well, nobody wants to fly Spirit. I've never I've never flown. >> I like Spirit. >> You do? >> They're based here in Fort Lauderdale. >> Huh? >> I have flown several times on Spirit. I've never had a problem. And there's like a a some of them are different, but usually you buy a ticket and there's like an $80 upgrade charge for the front seats. They have like big comfy seats in the front and free booze. >> Free booze. >> Free booze. >> I thought everything costs money. >> No, now you pay 80 bucks. You get like they just like literally hand you like four bottles of Cheetos to take off. Maybe that's why they're going bankrupt. But uh it's a wonderful I've always had a good experience. >> Well, that's interesting. Now, I knew the ex CEO and I would drop his name here and there, so maybe that helped. >> Well, I don't think it's going to help on the overall experience. They're not going to take all the unruly passengers off just because you dropped the CEO's name. >> No, I was in the front. I'm saying in the front they treat you like that. >> For 80 bucks. It's not like I'm some, you know, crazy spender. 80 bucks. I highly recommend if you have a chance before they go bankrupt and out of business entirely, fly them. Obviously, bring a parachute with you, but nonetheless, fly them. All right, some AI news. AI news. Alibaba is developing a new AI chip. It's specifically for inferencing rather than training, but Alibaba will still use semiconductors from other vendors like Nvidia. This is, you know, ne the next level is inference, right? From where we are now, large language models, regurgitate it. Then we got to do inference. >> Yeah. Inference. It's a good word. >> Inference. What? What? It's thought. It's it's what what do you call it? >> Inference. It's a inference like an inference engine. It makes it it takes a bunch of data and and it makes assumptions. And you know what happens when you make an assumption? >> Oh. Oh, yeah. That was And you know what? Do you know what? Do you know what show that was from and the character? >> No. >> That was The Odd Couple, I believe, and that was Felix Hunger. >> Oh, I think this is an old vaudeville joke. >> Oh, wait. You make an ass out of you and me. >> Yeah, >> but uh if we do the the infant part of the AI is the AI. The regurgitation is just uh compilation and that's what everybody's looking for is the inference where you can ask a question. It can actually re think for itself. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Sure. >> I I'm not saying it's going to do this. I'm saying the theory. So um more AI artificial intelligent company anthropic said on Tuesday today now valued a it's now valued at $183 billion post the money it took it recently over twice as much it was earlier this year. There's a lot of investor enthusiasm on these tech startups. The new valuation jumped from 61 billion in March but raised 3.5 billion. Now it's valued at 1 point. So it's in March it was 61. Wait, where are we? Three months. That means it it tripled. It it tripled in three months. >> That's the way to that's a winner. >> I think that that's something. Estimates that the company will be pulling in about 5 billion in revenue from what they're doing recently. So they got some earnings coming in. So that's good. Tesla news that European sales are sliding down 40% in the past year. And yet the P the forward PE is around 200. >> Yeah. Well, that's probably probably because of their India sales. Numbers are in. Reportedly sold few cars in India since it launch in July of 25. They did 600 total cars being ordered since last month. That's it. Um, Craft Hind splitting into two companies. So, we're going to go back to Craft and Hinds. I guess one's going to be focused on groceries, the other on sauce and spreads. They It's They came together. Now they're going back apart. Warren Buffett not happy. It's a bad move. Shares dropped 7% on the news. And let's get into the meat of flirty chat bots, shall we? Meta Facebook um has appropriated the names and likeness of celebrities including Taylor Swift, Scarlett Johansson, Anne Hathaway, and Selena Gomez to create dozens of flirty social media chat bots without permission. >> Now, once >> that's that's a lawsuit waiting to happen. >> Yeah. Reuters said, "Hey, what are you doing? Look at this medicine." Oh. Oh, we we'll take him off. They said uh its AI created inappropriate images violating his policies. I guess these were more than flirty. You know what I'm saying? And um legal experts of course as you mentioned are saying that Meta's using of these likenesses may have violated celebrities publicity publicity rights. But what's what's interesting is you're going to hear more and more of this. Not so much about the flirty chat bots, but you're going to hear about I I think you're going to hear about um blame it on the AI. >> Yeah, Trump did bring this up his press conference. >> What'd he say? >> Well, they brought up the fact that he was supposed to be dead. >> Oh, yeah. What was that about? >> Well, nobody knows. It was just a bunch of wishful thinking by the part of Democrats. And so in the process of that, they showed uh a or one of the reporters showed Trump a video of how that appeared that they were throwing stuff out of the White House windows, which was I guess a viral video going around. And Trump said that's not possible. That's has to be AI because those windows are bulletproof glass. They're 600 lb and they don't open. They're sealed shut. all the windows in the White House >> and which and then he brought up some anecdotes about how Melania was bitching about how stuffy it gets in there. And um he then he says it's AI. He says uh then he Trump went on and said and you know the funny thing is in the future people are going to I can blame AI for this but if something true happens we can blame AI. He says everyone's going to be blaming AI for whether it happened or not. >> I agree. and she was very right up on the on the social sociology of it. I thought that was fascinating. >> Yep. I think it's very very uh >> a very uh big thing that we're going to have to worry about because you could just, you know, say, oh, you know, the old, oh, who released this information? It was fake and then it's really a trial balloon. >> I think you just have to assume it's all fake. >> Everything's fake. Everything's fake. We're fake. >> No, we're not fake. That's And I think people can figure that out. >> They can. Uh let's talk about uh what you want to do to make sure that we're not fake. And that is to help the show. Help the show with a little gift, a little donation, a little help, a little helping hand. Uh it goes a long way. A long way. Whether it's $5, $20, $500. We need your help. Please go over to dhplug.com. You go to any place on the particular uh site, the show notes page. This is show number 767. And donate. little button that says donate which let you donate. So please donate. Thank you for your attention in this matter. Let's talk about the winner of the close to the pin for Proctor and Gamble comes in uh very close. The average price for entry was 159 with everybody. The actual price in the final price was 15704. And Dean W is a fisherman by the way an a fisherman. He sent me some pictures today of stripers in Cape Cod. Uh he's the winner. 29 cents away. >> That's pretty good. >> It's.18%. But look at that little list that I gave you there. You see that? >> Yeah. >> Who's number four? >> Who is number four? Let me go back to the list. List list. Um, >> he's only 39.39% away. >> Yeah. Marcus. >> Marcus. You know him? >> Yeah. He's been he's always on the list. Well, the thing is he sits in his thatch roof house. >> Yeah, he's the thatch roof guy. >> Sits in his Thatch roof house and he What is he doing? He's either he maybe fixing some that thatch needs a lot of work. Needs a lot of work. So, he's doing that and he's uh picking stock prices. That's what he does. Pretty good. >> He should have a newsletter. >> He should. Yeah. The Thatch Ruth The Thatch Roof Times. I like it. All right, let's talk about the game. Here we go. This is a game that we play. It's not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. It's not a recommendation of any kind. Nothing on the show should be considered investment advice or a recommendation. If you choose to invest in any of the stocks mentioned, you should know that it may carry risk along with the risk of a loss of principle. You should also seek out professional financial advice for your particular situation. We assume no risk as these are not to be considered recommendations. Horowitz accompany myself or John Cavor may invest in any of the securities mentioned and we'll disclose that on the website under the weekly stock pick section. You can go to dhunplug.com and see all the names we discussed in the segment along with the performance information from the date discussed as well as any additional important disclosures. >> You know, I'm looking at this list for a second. Looks very good. Uh, a couple things got kicked, right? CVR energy. >> Yeah, one of mine got my the top the top in the leaderboard got kicked. >> Got kicked off. >> CVR energy. >> Yep. Now I'm the top. I'm kingpin with uh now you got two two of the winners. >> Two two big ones. But you know, look at look at Wayfair for example down list we picked out last week. That was the short due to the furniture tariffs. But now tariffs may be illegal. It was up 4% today. You'd think that John that the tariffs will be reinstated, right? No question. >> No question in my mind. >> That's time to double down on wfair, right? You would think. >> Well, >> who knows? >> I guess. >> Yeah. Things are looking pretty good overall though. Um Starbucks up 2.69. Constellation Energy up 1%, Nvidia up 20%. Unusual, well, Subversive up 6%. Um, what else is big? Advanced Micro Devices, the short is up 7 and a half%. Apple shorts off by about 8% and by tomorrow I'll be off about 10% because it was up after hours. >> Yeah, I'll be kicked. >> Yeah. What else? Viking Therapeutics, >> GLP Oral is up 11.7. I have no picks for this week. >> I do. >> What do you got? >> I have a I don't know how to what to what to call this pick. I'm calling it a screw ball code pick because it has to be some code that somebody's doing because this is an insider trade on a company. Uh let me go find it symbol. I I think it's I Hold on. Let me get it. Uh I I R I X >> Iridex. >> Yeah. Iridex. It's a$134. >> Dollar 34. And the And the insider is the chief financial officer. >> Ah >> and he bought 625 shares. >> Really? Yeah, $838 in in a total purchase. Now, when you're looking up and down the insiders list, there's usually $12 million worth $5 million worth at least a million. And here we have an insider trader buying $600.38 or 800, I'm sorry, $800.38 worth of this stock. I'm thinking it's a penny stock, so it's like what what how much, you know, how bad can it be? And I just was just totally fascinated by this trade because what what are you think? What is this? It makes no sense. So I'm in >> in on the screw ball code. Uh 20%. >> Yeah, you can put 20% on it. Sure. >> All right. All right. That's good. Perfect timing. One hour on the button. >> Okay. Great. >> So, uh I will uh see you again next week, sir. Have a great one. >> That's right. Tuesday. See you. Bye. >> You've been listening in on a conversation with John C. D'vorak and Andrew Horowitz. Hope to be with you again soon. Bye-bye. >> Now, I'm not broke, but badly bent. I'm not down to my last scent, cuz I got a dollar, but it's my last dollar bill. Yes, sir. In my pocket there's a dent. All my dough is nearly spent, but I got a dollar and it's my last dollar bill. Oh, I'd love just one more buck. Fortune left me by chance. Now, here's a hint. I feel like a men. You can hardly tell by a glance. I don't care. No millionaire can give me the Isis stack. Cuz I got a dollar. My last dollar bill. This podcast is intended forformational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle and past performance is not indicative of future results. 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