Market Outlook: S&P 500 at all-time highs with the Fed expected to hold rates, while a weakening dollar fuels risk assets and commodities.
Data Center Storage: Seagate (STX) and Western Digital (WDC) touted as beneficiaries of surging data center and hyperscale storage demand, with strong earnings and unit growth in high-capacity drives.
Precious Metals: Gold and silver highlighted as hedges against debasement and uncertainty, with silver’s industrial demand adding support alongside macro drivers.
Medicare Insurers: UnitedHealth (UNH) discussed as a potential rebound play after sharp declines tied to low Medicare Advantage rate guidance, with scope for a negotiated improvement.
Tesla Trade: A tactical short on Tesla (TSLA) into earnings was pitched, citing stretched valuation and reliance on autonomy narratives to support sentiment.
Zoom Upside: Zoom (ZM) flagged for a hidden balance sheet win from its Anthropic stake and improved margins, contributing to recent share gains.
Airlines Pick: SkyWest (SKYW) presented as an interesting regional/white-label operator with a large fleet and diversified partnerships across major carriers.
Risks & Themes: Private credit stresses and illiquidity flagged as a brewing risk; natural gas price spikes and severe weather highlight energy grid exposure to gas; AI spending remains a key capex and margin watch-point.
Transcript
Hello and welcome to D'vorak Horowitz Unplugged, an hour-long discussion of activity in [music] the financial markets around the world featuring columnist John C. D'vorak and money manager Andrew Horowitz. This conversation is [music] casual and unrehearsed. Let's join John and Andrew now. [music] >> I'm John C. D'vorak >> and I'm Andrew Horowitz. And it is the uh 27th last week of of what is it? What month is this? This is January. >> Happens to be January. >> 2026. >> I know that's fast already. I mean, I know we talk about the stupid things, how fast things move, but this one was fast. >> Yeah. >> January's gone. A lot of, you know, I think that one of the reasons is that there's a lot of things going on. I mean, it's there is no there is no moment to rest when it comes to the news these days in the financial markets. Something crazy is happening at all times. Last week we had Davos. Talk about that what we learned from Davos this year. This year was was interesting because I found that there wasn't one main cause. A lot of times they talk about in Davos they have to have these causes and some >> eat bugs or uh climate change. >> Climate change is always a big one. >> Or you will own nothing. >> Occupy Wall Street. You know that that whole concept uh uh how about this? The the uh inequity that was a big one, right? >> Yeah. >> For a while. The the financial inequity. Uh we're going to talk about President Miyagi. Remember him from the Karate Kid? He was where he told um where he told his student how to wash the car and how to wax the car. It was wax on, wax off. Daniel Son, wax on, wax off. Daniel Son, remember that? >> No. >> No. Well, that's what happened. You turned to the right and then and then and then Daniel, [clears throat] who was the student of Mr. Miyagi, he was fed up one day. He said, "You know, I've been washing your car for days. You tell me to put the wax on, the wax off. You tell me to wash this way, that way. You know, you tell me to slide this this way and and and and sweep the broom this way. It's crap. I'm supposed to be learning karate." And Mr. Mi says, "You have been learning karate." And Daniel Son says, "No, how?" He said, "I show you. put your hands up. And he says, "Okay, now wax on." And he moved his hand a certain way, like in in air, and he showed him how that move was a karate move and wax off and the sweeping. So anyway, uh little story about The Karate Kid, which was probably Ralph Machio, one of the worst actors ever to come into this world, but it was a great movie. And President Miyagi is the terafon tariff off president. tariff on tariff off that's what we had this week again as a matter of fact even some this over this weekend that was uh tariff on and tariff off January stocks trying to finish with some gains the uh earnings that have coming out this week from or well what Tuesday already Tuesday for this week have been pretty spectacular as a matter of fact we're going to talk about what's coming up but uh Seagate remember these these are companies with the Western Digital And Seagate was like, "Well, who wants that?" Remember that one? >> They're boring. Boring >> storage companies. Seaggate was I think the number one stock in the S&P 500 last year and Western Digital is not too far behind. They're both up about 30 40% this year already. And after hours, they're both up about anywhere between 10 and 14%. Seagate absolutely blew the doors off of earnings. People are buying a lot of those big terabyte I the one out now is the 22 terabyte hard drive. >> Well, the thing is they're also supplying for base machines >> and the machines you know need >> well they're also supplying aren't they supplying for these large data centers? >> Yeah, for the rack mounts and data center machines. They all need some form of storage. They're not just a they're just not an Nvidia chips. There's more to the machine than that, right? Yeah. >> So, um, anyway, stocks are trying to finish off with the gain. They've been vacasillating a little bit and really, to be honest with you, until I would say this week, they were kind of like questionable whether or not they were going to finish in the in the green. We'll see what happens because a lot is happening this week with regard to more names that are coming out and we have a list of those as well. Um, today the S&P 500 did finish at an all-time high. Once again, defying odds that a lot of people thought was impossible. >> Yeah, I know. It's unbelievable. >> I got clients writing me that they're nervous. They're nervous. Things are open. >> Things are too good. No, things are too good. >> Oh, yeah. Well, that's a concern. >> Yeah. How could it be this good? Can't be this good. Something's It's going to have a crash. Going to crash. Markets can't be this good forever, which there is some >> it is going to crash because it always crashes. >> It's all timing, >> right? And and the problem is >> might crash 10 years from now. It could be >> right >> Thursday. >> Yeah. Exactly. And and that's the trick here. The the the problem with markets is that most people, including me, including you, want markets to move higher because it's good for all of us. >> Yeah. Unless you're one of these people that are permanently biased to the short side. And look, we go >> that's very rare. It's hard to do. >> It's very difficult to do. And if you did it over time, if you did it market-based, you would be not only out of money, >> you'd be out of No, you'd totally be out of money because the the trend all for thousand years has been up. >> Exactly. So, it's >> you got to find shorts. Finding shorts is like it's fun, but you know, good luck. >> That's a good point. It's it's fun. It's a hedge. It's an opportunity. There are some ways to do it. But I I would ask everybody that's listening right now to go to a stock chart and and instead of looking at the stock chart from a uh one year, two year, five year, go 20, 30 years and look at it. The little blips that you see are the horrible crashes that happened in 87, 2008, and in maybe 2020. >> Yeah. >> And there's a few years in there, too. But generally speaking, it goes from bottom left to top right. >> Yeah. And and those are little the crashes are are little blips when you look at that from 20 years. Yeah. >> So >> 30. >> What does that tell us? It's going up. It's going up, >> right? That >> it's going up or it's going broke. One of those. >> Everybody has the incentive to make it go higher. Companies, governments, individuals, everybody wants markets to go higher. And then you have mechanics of the markets that I've talked about a lot on the discipline investor show, which airs every Sunday, and the discipline investor podcast. By the way, the longest running independent financial podcast out there. >> Is that right? >> It is. >> That would make some sense. Yeah. So when you look at the mechanics of the market in particular, look at all the people that are working. When you have all these people working, what does it mean? Each and every week they get their paycheck. Each and every week, part of it goes to the government. Part of it goes to their 401k usually and part of it they take home. That part that goes to the 401k is probably going to be invested partially or if not more into equities, domestic, international, whatever it is, right? That being the case, that means every single week there's like a stock buyback program going on by the masses in the billions and billions of dollars. What you have to look out for is when all of a sudden the unemployment rates start skyrocketing. That being the case, a lot less people are putting money into the market. They're no longer getting paid. 401k is not being funded. But right now, we have a 4 what 5% un 4.4% unemployment rate. That means just to be clear about 96% of people are working >> well those who can work. >> Yeah. Okay. Still a lot of people that are working and they are all contributing. So something to think about when you're thinking about oh my god the market is going to crash and and by the way if you do believe the markets are going to crash and you do believe that the fundamentals are wacky right now or as they call them fun fundamentals. If you believe that the charts have gone parabolic and stupid and you decide, you know, I'm getting out of the market entirely, you need to do so with a plan on when you're going to get back in. If you're wrong, that's the trick, John. How do you know? Because what happens is if >> Well, if you were wrong, that ruins the idea. Because if you were wrong and you got out of the market prematurely based basically just get out and you were wrong now, how can you assume you're ever going to be right again? >> Not only that, if you're wrong, but you believe down to your britches that the markets are overvalued and they keep going up by another 10%, you think, you know what, now I'm definitely not getting in. >> Yes. You talk yourself out of it. >> Yeah. No way am I getting in now. >> Yeah. Yeah, if I thought it was bad when I got out, it's worse. >> And what happens when the market goes down 20%? What do you say then? >> Uh, I knew it. >> I was right. And it's it's going lower. >> Yeah, >> there's no way of getting in. >> It's right. You're out for good. Yeah, you never get back in. It's hard to get back in. >> We We've had actually we we've been really successful with one foot in, one foot out. Have I ever told you about this? I don't know. But starting in probably back in in co times five years ago, I came up with this idea that we need to sort of approach this a little bit differently because people are so nervous. But I explained to them how we can help them through a process of dollar cost averaging. Get into the market, get back into the to the markets through a process. It's a dualpronged approach to get back in one foot in one foot out so that you don't have to panic that all your money's at risk and that you're but on the other hand be miserable that you're missing out on. And if and and if and if things go with you, you're making money. If they go against you, you're not losing that much. >> So that's going that went well. That's go it goes well. People appreciate that kind of uh that isn't technique. Y >> it's not what Buffett does. >> No, Buffett buys and that's it. >> Buys and holds and when he gets out, he gets out and he doesn't worry about it one way or the other. Goes up, so what? If it goes down, I don't care. >> Right. >> Yeah. He He takes an emotion out of it. That's the key. That's the real key. >> Yeah. >> Have a plan and execute. >> Correct. And if you're wrong, uh uh re readjust adjust. All right. So, it's a big week for earnings. We talked about that vague Fed decision. The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow, and they're going to come out with their rate decision tomorrow. For the most part, >> what's the consensus on this? >> Pretty much that it's a nothing burger. >> There's very few that think that the Fed is at this point inclined for a lot of different reasons. one being the GDP at like 5%. Productivity at 5.9% and all the other numbers that we saw manufacturing getting a little bit better, unemployment hovering in a reasonable area, initial claims still at about 218,000 on average. So, you know, when you look at that and you look at the ISM composits, all the things that go into uh and the inflation numbers, nobody really believes the Fed is going to do anything at this at this meeting. They'll talk it up a little bit. One of the interesting thing that's going on right now, the dollar just hit a four-year low. And the dollar pretty much cascaded down over the last, I don't know, four or five days. And in particular, after President Trump was asked about the dollar, he says, "I don't care about the dollar. I don't care. It's good. Things are good. It's going down. It's fine." That's not usually what you hear from people in charge. Usually, it's we have a strong dollar policy. The strong dollar is in the best interest of the United States government and uh and our nation from an economic standpoint. That's not what he did. That low fell about a one and a half percent. That's a huge multi-dev deviation differential than you ever see before. You don't usually see those kind of moves. But but in a way, I kind of agree with him. The fact is that we always know have known that a weak yen has been very good for >> Japan. >> For Japan. >> Yeah. >> It's good for their economy. The stock market just rides right along with that. And they've been basically, you want to call it, the market has been fine, but the yen has been riding lower for years. And we don't call them currency manipulators of course, but >> yeah, at one time within within our memories, the yen was a hundred to a dollar. >> Yeah. >> You're talking about 50%. Now it's 150. Yeah. 50% debasement of that currency over the years. >> Yeah. And nobody's really complaining about it, >> right? >> Except our car companies. >> Exactly. >> I mean, I would if I was a car company, I'd be complaining about why should why should Toyota make a better car cheaper? >> I agree. So, the dollar's been in freef fall. It's been helping gold and silver. that's been helping risk assets like copper and uh helping a variety of other things uh like exports and uh also creating a uh risk-on attitude for you know equities natural gas prices exploding with this big summer storm. Now they're talking about uh what do we have here? We have I don't know what that was called the super cyclone I think it was. >> No, no, that's coming. The >> bomb cyclone. >> The bomb cyclone is coming. What about the ar What about the vortex? Where's that? >> The vortex we haven't seen for a while. That usually comes It should have come and gone by now so it can affect the stock prices. >> Yeah, >> we just have not seen it. >> The polar vortex. >> Yeah, the polar vortex. I've not uh Yeah, that'll be next year. >> And what do we have? What do we have last week? This week, what is this? >> This is some something else. They didn't give it a good name. Never caught on. I need to be out of town in DC next week. I am so nervous. >> Oh, I wouldn't go. >> I have to go pretty much when that bomb cyclone is going to be passing by. >> Yeah, >> I feel like I'm going to go outside and just freeze in space. And you know, >> you you're not going to get home. >> Planes, you got to deise. It always makes me nervous with the deicing. >> It looks like >> I remember one time there was a situation like that. It was like a blizzard or something. I was on the plane and we were the last plane off the runway and they were soaking us down with that stuff and we were the last plane that left that day. We were just got out just in time and they shut it down. >> Did you watch that football game? Did you watch >> Yeah, I watched all the football games. >> I mean that was the >> which one? >> The uh was it the Bears game? Which which game was within the snow? >> Oh, the [laughter] Yeah, the Denver game. >> Denver game. Yeah. Yeah. And and it started snowing. I I didn't watch the whole game cuz I watched the beginning. I said, "Oh, these guys uh you know, this will be an interesting game." And then I turned it on like like I just left for about a half an hour or something. It's a white field. This is the same game cuz it was green. Green started. They had a great um sequence where they showed like a time lapse from the beginning to the end or of of basically there was zero score after the blizzard started, >> right? Yeah, it's pretty hard to score in the a blizzard in football. >> Unbelievable. It was crazy. >> Um all right, let's talk about um a few other things. Um can't keep track of this anymore, so we're just going to lay it out there. There was announcement of tariffs on South Korean imports up to 25% after the administration accused Soul of not living up to a trade deal reached last year. This was like Monday, I think yesterday. In a post on social media, President Trump said he would increase levels on South Korea from 15% across the range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and all other reciprocal tariffs. Now, South Korea was planning on voting on the framework of the agreement that there was not that that was somewhat agreed on back when, you know, when the when all the tariffs were dropped because they were going to do something. Uh they they kind of didn't have a formal agreement as we know and uh they were supposed to do this in February. Well, the South Korean president came out and said, "Well, we're reaffirming our commitments." Cosby was down about 1% on the news and I don't know I maybe it was the South Korean president's comments but hit an all-time high of three and a half% by the close. >> Crazy, right? >> Yeah, I guess. >> Yep. Davos, what we learned? Not much. A bit of a I'm I'm tagging it as a bifurcated view of the world. There's this one view that things are fine, you know, all ahead. Let's go. And there's some that are like, uh, not so much. We got this framework of a deal, a plan with Greenland, so there's no tariffs. Again, wax on, wax off, or boy cried wolf or taco. I don't care what you want to call it, but >> who knows what it is. Yeah. >> We don't know. >> And we don't know anything. >> We know nothing. We know nothing. We're like We're like Sergeant Schultz. Remember him? >> No. Yeah. >> We know nothing. Um, gold and silver off to the races. Silver. Oh, silver on Monday. That was out of control. [laughter] It was up 15% in the early trade. It finished up about 5%. Hovering around the 112 area, 110 111 area. Let's see right now where it is, shall we? Silver's trading at 11359. And just to be clear, over the past year, do you know this number or not? Do you know how much it is up over the last one year? >> It's ridiculous. It's like uh lots. >> 271%. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> It's uh its recent high was at 114 and a quarter. That was at uh 10 in the morning on January 26th, yesterday. Yeah. >> And then it backed off hard and then today it started back off. >> They're trying to keep it from exploding. So that's why it keeps backing off hard because it could go to >> God bless you. This is this is something here. This is something. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has proven it is not. So wait, let me back up. Why is gold and silver moving so much? That's what people want to know. What is the story? Gold over 5,000 an ounce. And there's two things, right? you talked about last week and we've talked about you and I on a sidebar about the use of silver as an industrial metal and in particularly in we'll talk technology semiconductors computers etc. Right >> and batteries >> and batteries and especially that they came out with the use of the silver with the lithium that allowed for batteries to last far longer than they did in the past. That was your >> That's supposedly a a patent that Samsung owns that everyone's going to have to adopt because it prevents fires, >> right? What I think has happened when you look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin is at about 89,000 that that gold, we'll just stick on gold for a second. Gold has proven to be the debasement hedge, the geopolitical concern hedge, and the place to be when there's a lot of uncertainty. That doesn't mean it has to be bad uncertainty. This is uncertainty. Because if if we were to say it's bad uncertainty, we'd have to say the markets are down, right? The markets are not down. >> No, the markets are up and so is gold. >> Yeah. One thing is happening is I mean, the biggest market that's hit, if we were to talk about a market that is problematic, it's the Japanese bonds. they have gotten slugged with uh the recent move in their yields. Yen, yen's uh moving up in value against the dollar and the JGBs are getting absolutely smoked as yields are are gaining because there is such a discrepancy between the the bonds and and how they're priced and what the economy is really doing in a good way. I didn't catch that. >> Oh, bonds. Yeah, JGBs are getting just killed. Let's see if I can get a little reading on this. Um, do I have this here? Let's see. GP bonds. Um, but it's been it's been a lot. I mean, they're at a multi multi-deade high. Let's see. Um, January 2026, Japanese government bonds are experiencing severe volatility and a sharp sell-off with a 10-year breaking above 2.38%, a 28-year 27-year high. Lawren bonds are moving significantly. The 30-year yield yields jumping 75 basis points in less than 3 months and the 40-year-old bonds breach 4%. >> Oh, so they're normalizing basically. >> Exactly. Exactly. political developments uh because we know that there's a potential for a snap vote coming that's happening. >> Yeah. I wonder why they're doing that personally. But >> that's a whole different government process, isn't it? >> Yeah. And this prime minister who who seems to be very likable and she seems to like Trump uh is quite the character. She jumps around a lot and [laughter] it's like a little cheerleader that happens to be the prime minister. It's very funny. Well, it's working. I mean, uh, well, until recently. So, I think some of the concern is that her many of her initiatives and that's what's going to happen with a snap election that it will be I if if she's reelected, if you will. >> Every time I've seen these snap elections by these overconfident prime ministers, it's happened in England. It's happened elsewhere. It it it doesn't perform it. They I mean, the idea is that you're going to load up. You're going to you're so popular. You know, I am so popular that I can call an election. I'm going to win again and my party is going to increase in size so enormously that I can do whatever I want once I once you know the the dust clears. Yeah. >> And that I've never seen it I've never seen it work. >> Well, it's supposedly a referendum on what they are what their position is, right? >> Yeah. It's like are you agree? Do you agree with us? Yeah. >> Yeah. Let's double agree. There's a secondary agreement. >> Yes. Says doubling down. >> Yeah. So I I don't know. I mean I find that >> now we don't have that in this country. >> Well, we'd have snap elections every week. >> But what's interesting is that her what's happening here is that her policies are such that they're causing concern about the financial status, if you will, of Japan of the inability for Japan to meet their obligations because there's going to be even less money coming in from various sources. taxes, etc. to fund the government and the expenditures. That's why the bond one of the reasons the bonds are selling off and and normalizing. So, there's two of two things. But again, I think I think all this just leads me once again to the disproven belief that Bitcoin was the place to be if the dollar is going to move down. I mean, Bitcoin didn't move today at all. It's at a it's at a four-year low. The dollar >> it's it's taken on a life of its own. >> Yeah. But it's not what they >> Yeah. The whole idea was a hedge. You know, the dollar go, you know, as it economy collapses, you're going to have your Bitcoin. Well, you really want the gold and the silver. It seems to me >> I agree. I agree. >> Especially silver. And and the funny thing was the the I'll say it the con job about you know all companies should have Bitcoin on their treasury share in treasury and how the ETFs were going to make this this skyrocket. Well they did they did move them up don't get me wrong. Um and you know all the things that they promised to be you know what it could do with the blockchain and you know the alternative currency and the easy transferability and the less friction and lower cost for you know transaction. I don't know. It seemed like it was just a giant money grab to me. >> Yeah. But who's grabbing the money? >> Well, God bless him. Whoever it is it's fine. It's fine. But is this what let's let's just let's call it as it is. >> Well, you know, I've been all I just wished I bought a bunch of it at 25 cents. >> Yeah. Well, >> but the thing is I always tell people this, you know, well, you could have got at 25 cents. I know when it was 25 cent or a dollar, you say you had bought a, you know, $10,000 worth at a dollar. >> 10 bucks, you're out. >> Yeah, exactly. 10 bucks, you're out. >> 10 bucks, you're out. [laughter] I don't know how anyone could have had it for at a dollar and then kept it at 400 >> and then kept it >> right. >> You have to be a special kind of person to be doing that >> or lost your wallet which my son did. >> Yeah. Lost your wallet hopefully and he can't he found it. >> But of course he can't find it. So it's like you know his lost wallet is just lost money. He didn't pay anything for the Bitcoin but he lost his wallet because it's so long ago >> and so now he doesn't have that. would I it probably maybe a coin or two. I have no idea to be honest. >> A coin or two would pay off two coins would be good for a for a couple of years. Yeah. But still but theirs is making either would have sold earlier or lost the wallet. Those are the two options, >> right? >> Which is which is more painful psychologically? >> I think selling early would be more painful. >> I think so too because you still have the hope that one day you'll find that wallet. >> Yeah, you might find a wallet. Someday >> someday. Oh, somebody's going to find it. Somehow they're going to know it's me. I don't know how, but you know, they'll figure it out with cash. >> Undo the trade. >> Yep. Um, the economy is still strong. The US economy is expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than it was initially reported. So, revising it to about 4.4% on an annualized rate, the fastest in two years. Consumer spending advanced at 3.5% annualized pace in the last quarter which again was the fastest pace of outlays for the service uh area in three years. So that's good. Amazon on the other hand is trimming. They're uh cutting 30,000 jobs in total. As a matter of fact, I think I'll give you the punchline to this before we go to the rest. Uh there was a news item that the I don't know why there's a big deal either, but Amazon sent out the notification of the firings earlier than was anticipated by accident, which I don't know what that matters if it's a day in advance. Who cares? I mean, unfortunately, if you know you getting if you if you knew there was something coming down the pike, whether you got it on a Tuesday or a Wednesday, what's the difference? >> Yeah. You knew it was coming. >> Yeah. So, the first half of the 30,000 job cuts happened in October and now they're going to be laying off the remainder. Now, CEO Jasse once again said, and he stressed this, that is not a financial or anything to do with AI issues. Again, they're pressing that button of make sure to not tell anybody that has anything to do with AI. Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce. Company still has 1.5 million employees. And this is primarily corporate >> uh level layoffs. >> Well, they're probably overstaffed. >> They are obviously by 10% at least. >> Spirit Airlines in talks with investment firm Castle Lake for a potential takeover. This all started when JetBlue said they wanted to merge and the Biden administration said no that would not be good for the Spirit Airlines or people. Uhhuh. Uhhuh. Okay. Dumb. >> Yeah. This is a complaint of yours. It's like the bare bare feet at the airport complaint. >> Well, still everything. >> Do you realize a lot of things regarding airports now that they think about it? >> There's a lot of travel related issues I have. >> Yes, you do. H >> you got to look into that. >> Have you ever flown Spirit? >> Yeah, I love I love Spirit. >> You love Spirit? >> I've had only good experiences at Spirit. For an ex I flew to Guatemala. >> Why do you have such a bad rep? You think? No. >> No. Spend the extra 75 bucks and sit in first class. 75 bucks. Free booze. Comfy seats like you'd sit in your in your living room. Comfy cushy seats. >> You recommend flying first class. It's >> $75 extra to get to bump yourself up. Well, that's pretty cheap. >> Yeah. I flew to Guatemala. I paid whatever, like $300 for the ticket and I paid 75 bucks to go to first class. It's not a true first class. It's just it's like a business class and you're not flying very long and very far, but it's three and a half four hours and you got literally this big comfy seat and they're just throwing bottles of Cheetos at you the whole time. >> What's wrong with that? >> That that sounds like a winner. >> Yeah. So, um, >> so that's the tip of the day for you. >> Yeah, definitely. So, uh, Frontier tried to pick him up. No good. Um, so they went bankrupt to trying to pull their head above water. If you remember, I think it was Alaska Airlines and Frontier um, also tried to kill them by moving some of their routes to the areas that Spirit would would would fly out of. And and they have a big hub here in Fort Lauderdale. >> They do. >> Yeah. >> Uh did you see this article? This this piece booze am Hamilton the the Booze Allen Hamilton. You know, this is a uh a group that caters to the government u job placements, various contracts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canled cancelled department contracts with the firm because their employee leaked President Donald Trump's tax records to the New York Times. This was really fascinating. So between 2018 and 2020, this employee Edward Little John stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers. I don't know why he did such a thing. That's first of all. SECOND OF ALL, WHY in the world does Booze Allen Hamilton have people's tax returns? >> That's what I'm wondering. >> I do not understand. Why did they have Trump's tax return? >> There's probably a reason. >> I I I tried to look into this. I had I I was there was there was nothing I could find. Now, I think he he he plead guilty to this. Stock is down 50% since the end of 2024. You lose those big contracts and you you kind of piss off the government. It's not going to help. >> Yeah. You would that is not going to help anything. >> No. Uh here's something. We've been talking about this, you and I, around in circles about this, but something I brought up and I've been saying that I'm a little bit concerned about this. There's one thing that's kind of, you know, they say, "What keeps you awake at night?" And let's just say that it doesn't keep me awake. It just doesn't allow for a fully restful sleep. And that is private credit. Private credit is um an area of alternative investing. There's private equity, private credit. This is where companies will get like a mass a bunch of money from investors and they'll go out and try to fund various different things through lending through credit. So maybe there's companies that are looking for the opportunity to expand but for whatever reason they can't go the traditional routes. Hundred different reasons why choose not to. it's unavailable to them at this stage of their existence in the world of uh of uh their company's you know process and private credit will give it to them say you know you here's a deal uh maybe we're going to own a small piece of your company for doing so uh we're going to charge you 10% plus this and that whatever it is well there has been a big concern that private credit has grown so dramatically so quickly that possibly some of the underwriting has gotten sloppy and when the economy slows down, that's when we're going to see some of these problems come out. Well, Black Rockck TCP Capital shares were lowered by about 13% on Monday after a disclosed Friday night at a late night dump. They do this sometimes. s they throw this stuff out in the public domain Friday night when you're having your cocktails so you don't think about it and you got the whole weekend to forget about it. But people didn't forget about it because on Monday the stock declined because their net asset value somehow declined by 19%. Oh god. So that means what that means is just to clarify this the net asset value is the valuation of the underlying securities in their portfolio was marked down by almost 20% since the last time they did the mark. >> Now is this the stuff in their portfolio specifically or the assets under management? >> This is the stuff in their portfolio specifically. >> So the assets under management have not been there's nothing there. >> Yeah. Black Rockck is not this is a a a particular private credit uh this Black Rockck TCP something credit partners uh something I don't know what the T stands for but this is this is a fund that specifically >> okay >> Black Rockck put together to >> do lending and private >> finance yeah >> the company's not as a value on >> de so that was a bad so they they're not good at this it sounds like >> no it's not that they're not good at it this is what's happening ing that all this was built up on the idea that private credit, all these companies would do well and money was being sent out all over the place. It's not just them. And by the way, just to throw a little bit more gasoline on this, the 19% that I mentioned was from their last mark. Uh I think the company's asset net asset value as of December 31st 2025 was expected to be about 705 to 709 which is a quarterly reduction since the end of September. That's how fast this came down. The >> the decline is primarily driven by issuer specific developments during the quarter. And um you had other companies like Owl, OWL down 3%, Aries down 3%, KKR down 2%. Not as much, but I'm telling you there's something percolating out there in the world of private credit. I have heard that liquidity is absolutely dried up in that sector. >> Example, we saw this with Owl. We saw this now. This is why these are being marked down because liquidity. People are not buying it for the price. Therefore, the liquidity is not there. And you got to mark it down. You mark it down. You're like, "Okay, look, it's like anything else. I'll sell my house to you for a million dollars." No buyers. That means there's no liquidity, right? I'll sell it to you for 750. No buyers. No liquidity. Where's the number? Well, maybe at 500. I just did a 50% markdown and that's where I got my liquidity. meaning that the market is overpriced for where it needs to be to prepare to to provide a smooth flowing uh economic model for that for that market. >> So there's no liquidity because nobody's willing to pay for it at those prices. >> Now on the other hand, we have some good news. Zoom communications, you know those guys, >> we're using them as we speak. as we speak, which by the way, solid platform. I think I use it for a whole host of things. >> It It has a low latency. It's a lot better than a lot of stuff I've run into. >> Yep. There's a stock um the stock move on Zoom recently that took the stock to a pretty significant high. Why? because there was an analysis to show that Zoom's investment in Anthropic, which they put in initially $51 million, can now be worth between two to four billion. >> Nice nice move, Zoomers. >> A hidden gem on the balance sheet. >> Yeah. >> So, the the the company's performance also got better, but this is pretty good. So, 41.2% 2% non-GAAP operating margin which is pretty good big gains from uh its unrealized gains from his AI investments stock has done very well on the other hand you may be saying what stocks aren't doing well how about United Healthcare today could you take a look at that what went on there >> no I'm completely unfamiliar with what what happened >> so overnight the administration uh decided that the this is the centers for medical medicare and medicare services or CMS came out with their Medicare advantage reimbursement rates. In the past years, it's been anywhere from let's say call it 3 to 5%. That on an annual annually they say okay the reimbursement rates will be that from the government and that would be what the various insurers could count on. Okay, make sense? >> Yeah. >> So, >> yeah, it was it was a payoff. It was the whole thing was created as a as a bribe to the insurance companies to keep financing Democrat uh legislative people. >> Well, if that's the case, the administration said, you know, we're going to give you 0.9% increase uh in 2027. So, you know, through the next year and that was far below the 4 to 6% >> uh wasn't give them any increase. They shouldn't be getting the money at all. Why are we subsidizing insurance for people when to by giving direct payments to insurance companies? >> I would I would agree with you. But it it's it's >> because they still gouge the customer >> for the Medicare. It's the Medicare payment that goes to the insurance companies for the various services. So there's not going to be any increase allowed for the services and thereby not paid to the insurance company, >> right? You know, from the benefit. Yeah. So, so United Healthcare that and they came out with some other earnings information down 20% today. >> Looks like a nice thing to pick up. >> Well, could be. Maybe somebody has it on the game already. You don't know. >> It's possible. >> Yo, that's what you have on there that's not listed. >> Uh, United Healthcare has >> falling knife. >> Yeah, I know. >> Or a dead cat bounce. >> Yeah, one of the two, >> right? Um, United Healthcare has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage, roughly 30% of national enrollment, making it really vulnerable. So, um, I don't know, the the CVS Health and Elevance Health were dropped about 13 to 14%, human dropped about 21%. Could it be, sir, that once again this will be a one of those wax on, wax offs. Could it be that this is really a negotiation component rather than just an edict that they'll come in and they'll say, you know what, okay, we review this and we we saw what you wrote us and the cost of this is going up, etc. and that, you know, we'll we'll meet you halfway. And then what happens to the stock? Skyrockets. Just think about it. Just something for you to think about. something for you to chew on, sir. >> Well, that's why you put it on the game. >> I don't know if I put on the game. Did I put on the game? >> Oh, yeah, I did. >> I don't know. You got one there. I can't see. You did. >> There it is. Yep. >> I'll make it a purple. I'm I'm jumping on that one. >> Okay. Um, you want to talk about the earnings coming out this week? Tech earnings. Can you can you actually go down and look at that table? You see that table? Is that a nice table? >> Let me go find the table. Hold on. That's embedded right in there. You see that? >> You do that. You embed these tables. That's why people should go to the website more often. >> Yeah. DH unplugged. >> They can Well, they're there. By the way, they should kick the the donate button. >> Oh. >> And help the show. >> Yeah. It'll be a That would be a That would be a kick that's worthwhile. If you haven't done so, by the way, you should feel very bad about yourself. Just letting you know that. I'm not going to start with like a whole chain letter kind of thing that if you don't do it, it's bad luck and all. I'm not going to say that, but I'm just telling you it's something you should do. Go over to dhunplug.com, find the yellow button and click on it and donate at will. Point is I was making I I put this into uh one of the I think I put this as a Google Gemini. I said, "Do me a favor. make me a table HTML coded uh that shows the earnings coming up this week, the report date, the estimated EPS, and what I should be looking at. And pops right pop right out >> just like that. >> Well, that was nice. >> That nice. >> It probably cost 20 bucks to do that. >> I know. >> And you got it for next to nothing. >> 14 gallons of water consumed. >> 14 gallons of water. You're ruining the country. >> I'm such a bad man. I'm such a bad man. And let's go through this quickly. What I'd like to say is um go over to the website because this lists when the earnings are coming out, the expectation of earnings and revenue as well as what we're looking at, what we're focusing in on. Uh for example, for Microsoft, which is going to be on the 28th, which is tomorrow after the close, earnings per share estimated to be about $3.86 86 cents on about $80 billion of revenue. Now, by the way, all of the names, most of the names talk about here are going to be also capex related. What are they spending or not spending? Meta is going to be a big one in that area. Metad does these massive overcommitments of capital like >> massive. Now, if they come in, >> they know how to spend money. >> They He's good at that. He Mark Zuckerberg has spent a lot of money in his day. >> I think he wastes it. He did so on the metaverse. Remember that. Where is he even where's the hello? Hello metaverse. Where are you? >> No, but it was it was was money. It wasn't Well, I mean, yeah, you're going to lose money on some of these things like that. And he did. I think 72 billion or something is I don't know what the number is outrageous. And uh but is that was the expense of the money well managed? Was it how much squandering was going on? Do you remember how much that stock fell during the whole metaverse process? >> Yeah. >> Oh, that was terrible. That was terrible. So, >> it's a good time to pick it up. >> Yeah. >> 100 bucks. >> Yep. Easy. So, right now there's a lot of spending going on and if if if Meta comes in over the top, it may hurt the shares. If it comes in under, may help the shares. Uh we're going to look at things like Azour and cloud growth for Microsoft. Things that are going to be the big the big issue is I think in margin margin stability has been something that everybody's been calling into question because they've been spending so much money and we haven't seen the payoff for the most part. You know, there's not a lot of revenue coming in for for all this. There's still a lot of a lot of smoke and mirrors. Then we got Tesla coming in. >> They was paying off fine for a while and then they get carried away. These guys don't know when to stop, >> right? which is, you know, was [clears throat] the mentality to get where you are, which is the the kind of the catch 22. When you have the mentality to get where you are, you're not going to change your practices. >> Correct. >> You don't back down. You're not wrong. You have to be fired. You have to be fired. The board should fire the people that are doing, you know, they should have a clue and fire them. >> Get rid of them. >> Yeah. Tesla >> Tesla's coming out uh again also January 28th after the close that's tomorrow Wednesday uh expectation about 40 cents revenue about 24 and 25 billion meanwhile uh this stock is valued so high that it makes my nose bleed just talking about it the um >> what is the EPS on it >> EPS is looking to be about 40 cents PE ratio is something absurd >> yeah what's the PE ratio that's actually what I meant to ask >> Tesla >> it's got to be is it over uh 288. >> What? >> Yeah. 288. >> Okay. Yeah, you're right. [laughter] >> Now, what they'll do is here's the magic of what Tesla does. They are going to come in. They are going to come in with a slow. >> They got a big shovel. Is it what the magic? The magic is a huge shovel. >> Huge shovel of >> that they're going to send you. But we know, >> have you seen the latest thing? It look like a little railroad that comes. It's going to be the driverless car that's going to compete with Whimo. Have you seen that thing? >> No. >> Oh, they rolled it out. There was Elon and there people ooing and aawing. It was like, you know, you see the zuks? You've seen that zuk? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Well, this is more more dynamic looking. It looks like a streamliner from the uh from the age of of of the diesel locomotives, you know, the the central Pacific or one of the or no, the uh New York that New York railroad that had the funny looking engines. It's just the damnedest looking thing. It looks great, but it's just like you can just tell it's bull crap. >> Yeah, I see it right here. It's got those weird wheels. What's with the wheels? >> It's got weird wheels. Everything about it, >> huh? I like the robo van. Everything's very futuristic looking like it's from uh like like the movie with Arnold Schwarzenegger to Mars. Those kind of things. But what they do is if things don't go well, they'll just bring up robot tax. He's an autonomous driving and that that just >> No, that's what he does. That's what the shovel's for. >> Yeah. Exactly. Apple will be coming out also Thursday. >> That's great. >> Yeah. So Boeing company delivered massive amount of airplanes, highest since 2018. Brought in 23.9 billion in the last 3 months of 2025, which was a 57% increase over the same period in 2024, which was great. >> We got another moonshot. US natural gas prices surged 17% on Monday morning, climbing above $6 for the first time since 2022. This is all the winter storm Fern leaves hundreds of thousands without power. Um, National Weather Service forecast wind chills somewhere like -50. That's - 455 degrees Celsius.50 is 455 degrees C. What happens? is do we converge and somehow >> you're asking the wrong I you have to put it in the converter for me. >> Let's see what is -50° F in Celsius. That's what I want. Negative. Yes, it's 45. Yeah, I guess the way the out the the way the calculation goes it it works. It starts to fall apart in terms of separation way below zero. >> Yeah. Because if the other side at at 50 degrees Fahrenheit, it's 10 degrees Celsius. >> Yeah. Something like that. Okay. >> So, >> it's cold. >> Yeah. Really cold. >> Um, so natural gas, by the way, is used in a whole bunch of things. Do you know what the number one thing that well I would say by by the number one thing that it powers is the electric grid. 43% of the US electric grid is fueled by natural gas. Did you know that? You knew that. >> I did not know that. I thought it would be uh less than that to be honest. >> Pretty amazing. So once again, just to be clear, electric isn't just this thing that just appears somehow in your wall. Yes, you're burning stuff. >> You're burning something. You're doing something. You're >> for the fire people. >> Yeah, >> there's always something being burned somewhere. [laughter] >> Yep. >> Uh we got this. Uh not again. Here we go. The Democrats are threatening another government shutdown. This time there's a partial government shutdown is set to begin on January 30th. They expect >> this is an interesting new strategy they've come up with. >> I don't understand the point. What's the point, >> Schumer? Well, the point is is that Schumer's the Schuman did the first one, too. Schumer's, you know, they keep think, "Oh, he's going to be kicked out. They don't like him." But Schumer's actually running the show. And Schumer has um come up with a thesis that because the president is because because the public at large doesn't understand how anything works. >> They don't understand how city government works. They can barely use a bubble gum machine. It's It's pathetic. And so he's determined that the public at large, not the smart people that listen to podcasts like this one, >> but the public at large will always blame the president for anything bad happening, whether it's caused by the Republicans or the Democrats. The president gets the blame. And that and that blame needs to carry into the midterm so the Democrats can take the their uh the House of Representatives back. And this is all about that. >> Well, what's happening now is the idea is to, you know, if they if they if they don't withdraw ICE from Minnesota and blah blah blah and all this other stuff, they're going to cause another shutdown. >> Yeah, I think ICE is coming out anyway. Yeah. And in closing, before we get to the game, I want to talk about one thing that I thought was really kind of interesting because I I I found this this part for the course, but I think it bears a discussion because there's a reality check with this and and this is how it goes. ex- Finance Minister Nota from Japan um who currently co-hosts the largest co co has the largest opposition party in Japan. He says that the Japan is unlikely to get international consent for intervention on the yen. The yen the bond selloff requires Japan to be in crisis mode and the government must vow to restore uh physical discipline to end that yen fall. Japan must create an environment allowing for steady Bank of Japan rate hikes, he said. So this clearly shows us in my opinion that this whole thing that's is going on, it's all political. It's it's all aligned to whatever their beliefs are at that time. Because if an ex- finance minister, he would never say something like this as a finance minister when he was in charge in office. These are the kind of things the Fed does not say. Jay Powell would not say, you know what, things look shitty. We're going into a recession within months. Strap in. That doesn't happen. >> No, it never has. >> You can't You can't do it. So, um, again, if he was in this role, this wouldn't happen. I think it just goes to show and prove that, uh, I don't want to call it political, but it it's all about time and place. And when you listen to all these players, markets won't because markets just like to hear what they like to hear. And good news, they'll just run on, bad news, they'll ignore. But just remember, take some of this stuff with a bit of a grain of rice. Okay, ready? Yep. This is a game that we play. It's not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. It's not a recommendation of any kind. Nothing on the show should be considered investment advice or a recommendation. If you choose to invest in any of the stocks mentioned, you should know that it may carry risk along with the risk of a loss of principle. You should also seek out professional financial advice for your particular situation. We assume no risk as these are not to be considered recommendations. Horowitz company, myself or John Cedor may invest in any of the securities mentioned and we'll disclose that on the website under the weekly stock pick section. You can go to dhunplug.com and see all the names we discussed in the segment along with the performance information from the date discussed as well as any additional important disclosures. All right. Uh news headline by the way uh SoftBank just uh looked to agree to invest another $30 billion dollar in open AI. >> They're going all in. >> It sounds like it all in. Take the list, sir. >> Yeah. Well, he's a guy's something of a genius. So you watch when he gets out. >> Right. So, here we have a a a stock pick that are all green from 2025 and all red from 2026, which I found fascinating. It's a funny looking. It looks like a It's a funny looking thing. Uh, and I have to say your uh L3 Harris has passed up my Eli Liy as the top superstar on the on the list. Might I say that your high craft m high craft mining it sucks that you got pulled out >> because >> it went up, didn't it? >> Yeah, it's up to 54 now. >> Yeah, >> it got cracked that one day and that was that. >> Yeah, I know. Well, that's the problem with the the way we play the game. But that's the game the g the game is what it is. But it it is at 54. So it's a it's still it is something is well, you know, it's silver. Why wouldn't it be up? It should go up higher. What I'd like to look for now is I would like to find the top investment in copper mines. >> I mean, isn't that um I'm trying to think who that could be. If it's Well, >> and by top, I don't mean the biggest. I mean the one that's got the best potential. >> Uh yeah, Freeport is Rio Tinto. Southern Copper. >> You think so? So, Southern Converse one, SECCO, there's some other smaller ones, mid-tier you want. That's probably the ones you want to buy like an erro. I wonder if tech is tech still is tech. Let's see. Tech resources. Did it get bought? >> No, it's still there. It's up three bucks today. Year to date. >> What's the name of it? >> Tech Resources. Um, it's up 17% year to date. See what it looks like over. Yeah, it's an alltime high. I think it's an alltime high. Yeah, >> it should be at an alltime high. It's close to alltime high. Actually, it's not 50 58. I just saw 62 back in 2011. Then you got >> what's at now? >> 56. But let's look at the other one that I found that I was think Oh, SECO. That's another one. That's a pure play. Let's see. That's uh Max. Let's see that one. Yeah, that was an alltime high. That one's really an alltime high. Wow. Wow. That was a year ago was 93. Now it's 194. I told you that was a good one. It >> doubled. >> That's a good one. >> So you got that's up a lot. 7,000% since 1996. >> H that's reasonable. >> Earnings came out. EPS. Yep. So, you got Southern Copper, Tech Resources, Freeport Microaran. That's a big one, though. Um, what else do we have here though on the list? Let's see. Oh, yeah, that was up to 54. So, uh, I'm going to buy United Healthcare as a rebound potential. >> Yeah, you're going to put that purple up. I'll jump in on that. So, let's do that. Let's put this Let's put that as purple. Purple. Like purple. This one here. Yeah. It's not dark enough. I need a little darker. It's not the right color. Here we go. Okay. And then Oh, and I'm going to short Tesla into earnings. >> Yeah, I see that. >> Maybe dumb. Try it. Try it so many times. >> Well, this seems like the most risky of all. Used to remember Netflix when it had this phenomenon. You couldn't ever hit it, right? >> But you But you but now look where Netflix is. It's in the toilet. Well, if if you say so. >> Well, Netflix Netflix stock is down in the last year to date it's uh down 6%. One year it's down 12%. >> It's hardly >> down 50%. >> Its high >> So, >> its high was 129. >> I don't I I you Yeah. Well, I don't like Netflix. I I don't like playing >> either. 40 $40 off 50% down. So, I have one pick. >> Okay. What do you got? >> Sky West. >> What's the symbol of that? >> Uh, SKW, I think. >> I think it's SKW. What is the symbol? Where are you? Well, I lost track of it. >> SKW is not it. So, SK >> SK KW is it? >> No. SK1. >> No, no, no. That's Sorry. That's That's where they're over. Yeah. That's what that's their hub. It's the name of an airport. Uh what is this? >> SKYW. >> SKY. >> $98 a share. >> Yeah, something like that. Why? >> Why? Tell me. >> Well, uh twofold. It's I would say basic research. But what happened was a friend of mine got hired by them. He's a PR guy and he got hired by them and he's always seems to be in companies that are very successful. And the fact that they dug this gap out of the blue and hired him, I said, "Sky West, that's what do they even do? Maybe I get some free tickets." I'm thinking and so um I'm looking at their at their wiki page and it's a fascinating company. The the beginning of the company is fascinating. What they do is fascinating. They're not a normal, you know, they're they're a regional airline, but they also don't they'll say, "Yeah, yeah, we'll be regional for you, and we'll be regional for you. They'll be regional for Delta and the and United, and we'll work with you guys at Alaska." So, this like a It turns out they had the one of the biggest fleets, if not the biggest fleet size of 515 planes. >> Wow. >> In the world. >> They do like a white label thing. >> Yeah. It's like a white label, but they also use their own brand. So, they like Kirkland. I mean, you know, Costco, >> right? >> Oh, that's cool. >> So, uh I was impressed with that that scheme. I've never seen anyone try doing this. >> Oh, I like it. >> So, >> all right. Well, we're ending now because we're running over and we don't like to run over. >> We don't want to run over. Okay. >> So, I will see you again uh next Tuesday. >> Got it. Bye. >> Bye. >> You've [music] been listening in on a conversation with John C. D'vorak and Andrew Horowitz. Hope to be with you again soon. Bye-bye. Now, I'm not broke, but badly bent. I'm not down to my last scent, cuz I got a dollar, but it's my last dollar bill. Yes, sir. In my pocket there's a dent. All my dough is nearly spent, but I got a dollar [music] and it's my last dollar bill. Oh, I'd love just one more buck. Fortune left me by chance. Now, here's a hint. I feel like a men. You [music] can hardly tell by a glance. I don't care. No millionaire can give [music] me the ISIS stack cuz I got a dollar. My last dollar bill. 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DHUnplugged #788: TTM and Back
Summary
Transcript
Hello and welcome to D'vorak Horowitz Unplugged, an hour-long discussion of activity in [music] the financial markets around the world featuring columnist John C. D'vorak and money manager Andrew Horowitz. This conversation is [music] casual and unrehearsed. Let's join John and Andrew now. [music] >> I'm John C. D'vorak >> and I'm Andrew Horowitz. And it is the uh 27th last week of of what is it? What month is this? This is January. >> Happens to be January. >> 2026. >> I know that's fast already. I mean, I know we talk about the stupid things, how fast things move, but this one was fast. >> Yeah. >> January's gone. A lot of, you know, I think that one of the reasons is that there's a lot of things going on. I mean, it's there is no there is no moment to rest when it comes to the news these days in the financial markets. Something crazy is happening at all times. Last week we had Davos. Talk about that what we learned from Davos this year. This year was was interesting because I found that there wasn't one main cause. A lot of times they talk about in Davos they have to have these causes and some >> eat bugs or uh climate change. >> Climate change is always a big one. >> Or you will own nothing. >> Occupy Wall Street. You know that that whole concept uh uh how about this? The the uh inequity that was a big one, right? >> Yeah. >> For a while. The the financial inequity. Uh we're going to talk about President Miyagi. Remember him from the Karate Kid? He was where he told um where he told his student how to wash the car and how to wax the car. It was wax on, wax off. Daniel Son, wax on, wax off. Daniel Son, remember that? >> No. >> No. Well, that's what happened. You turned to the right and then and then and then Daniel, [clears throat] who was the student of Mr. Miyagi, he was fed up one day. He said, "You know, I've been washing your car for days. You tell me to put the wax on, the wax off. You tell me to wash this way, that way. You know, you tell me to slide this this way and and and and sweep the broom this way. It's crap. I'm supposed to be learning karate." And Mr. Mi says, "You have been learning karate." And Daniel Son says, "No, how?" He said, "I show you. put your hands up. And he says, "Okay, now wax on." And he moved his hand a certain way, like in in air, and he showed him how that move was a karate move and wax off and the sweeping. So anyway, uh little story about The Karate Kid, which was probably Ralph Machio, one of the worst actors ever to come into this world, but it was a great movie. And President Miyagi is the terafon tariff off president. tariff on tariff off that's what we had this week again as a matter of fact even some this over this weekend that was uh tariff on and tariff off January stocks trying to finish with some gains the uh earnings that have coming out this week from or well what Tuesday already Tuesday for this week have been pretty spectacular as a matter of fact we're going to talk about what's coming up but uh Seagate remember these these are companies with the Western Digital And Seagate was like, "Well, who wants that?" Remember that one? >> They're boring. Boring >> storage companies. Seaggate was I think the number one stock in the S&P 500 last year and Western Digital is not too far behind. They're both up about 30 40% this year already. And after hours, they're both up about anywhere between 10 and 14%. Seagate absolutely blew the doors off of earnings. People are buying a lot of those big terabyte I the one out now is the 22 terabyte hard drive. >> Well, the thing is they're also supplying for base machines >> and the machines you know need >> well they're also supplying aren't they supplying for these large data centers? >> Yeah, for the rack mounts and data center machines. They all need some form of storage. They're not just a they're just not an Nvidia chips. There's more to the machine than that, right? Yeah. >> So, um, anyway, stocks are trying to finish off with the gain. They've been vacasillating a little bit and really, to be honest with you, until I would say this week, they were kind of like questionable whether or not they were going to finish in the in the green. We'll see what happens because a lot is happening this week with regard to more names that are coming out and we have a list of those as well. Um, today the S&P 500 did finish at an all-time high. Once again, defying odds that a lot of people thought was impossible. >> Yeah, I know. It's unbelievable. >> I got clients writing me that they're nervous. They're nervous. Things are open. >> Things are too good. No, things are too good. >> Oh, yeah. Well, that's a concern. >> Yeah. How could it be this good? Can't be this good. Something's It's going to have a crash. Going to crash. Markets can't be this good forever, which there is some >> it is going to crash because it always crashes. >> It's all timing, >> right? And and the problem is >> might crash 10 years from now. It could be >> right >> Thursday. >> Yeah. Exactly. And and that's the trick here. The the the problem with markets is that most people, including me, including you, want markets to move higher because it's good for all of us. >> Yeah. Unless you're one of these people that are permanently biased to the short side. And look, we go >> that's very rare. It's hard to do. >> It's very difficult to do. And if you did it over time, if you did it market-based, you would be not only out of money, >> you'd be out of No, you'd totally be out of money because the the trend all for thousand years has been up. >> Exactly. So, it's >> you got to find shorts. Finding shorts is like it's fun, but you know, good luck. >> That's a good point. It's it's fun. It's a hedge. It's an opportunity. There are some ways to do it. But I I would ask everybody that's listening right now to go to a stock chart and and instead of looking at the stock chart from a uh one year, two year, five year, go 20, 30 years and look at it. The little blips that you see are the horrible crashes that happened in 87, 2008, and in maybe 2020. >> Yeah. >> And there's a few years in there, too. But generally speaking, it goes from bottom left to top right. >> Yeah. And and those are little the crashes are are little blips when you look at that from 20 years. Yeah. >> So >> 30. >> What does that tell us? It's going up. It's going up, >> right? That >> it's going up or it's going broke. One of those. >> Everybody has the incentive to make it go higher. Companies, governments, individuals, everybody wants markets to go higher. And then you have mechanics of the markets that I've talked about a lot on the discipline investor show, which airs every Sunday, and the discipline investor podcast. By the way, the longest running independent financial podcast out there. >> Is that right? >> It is. >> That would make some sense. Yeah. So when you look at the mechanics of the market in particular, look at all the people that are working. When you have all these people working, what does it mean? Each and every week they get their paycheck. Each and every week, part of it goes to the government. Part of it goes to their 401k usually and part of it they take home. That part that goes to the 401k is probably going to be invested partially or if not more into equities, domestic, international, whatever it is, right? That being the case, that means every single week there's like a stock buyback program going on by the masses in the billions and billions of dollars. What you have to look out for is when all of a sudden the unemployment rates start skyrocketing. That being the case, a lot less people are putting money into the market. They're no longer getting paid. 401k is not being funded. But right now, we have a 4 what 5% un 4.4% unemployment rate. That means just to be clear about 96% of people are working >> well those who can work. >> Yeah. Okay. Still a lot of people that are working and they are all contributing. So something to think about when you're thinking about oh my god the market is going to crash and and by the way if you do believe the markets are going to crash and you do believe that the fundamentals are wacky right now or as they call them fun fundamentals. If you believe that the charts have gone parabolic and stupid and you decide, you know, I'm getting out of the market entirely, you need to do so with a plan on when you're going to get back in. If you're wrong, that's the trick, John. How do you know? Because what happens is if >> Well, if you were wrong, that ruins the idea. Because if you were wrong and you got out of the market prematurely based basically just get out and you were wrong now, how can you assume you're ever going to be right again? >> Not only that, if you're wrong, but you believe down to your britches that the markets are overvalued and they keep going up by another 10%, you think, you know what, now I'm definitely not getting in. >> Yes. You talk yourself out of it. >> Yeah. No way am I getting in now. >> Yeah. Yeah, if I thought it was bad when I got out, it's worse. >> And what happens when the market goes down 20%? What do you say then? >> Uh, I knew it. >> I was right. And it's it's going lower. >> Yeah, >> there's no way of getting in. >> It's right. You're out for good. Yeah, you never get back in. It's hard to get back in. >> We We've had actually we we've been really successful with one foot in, one foot out. Have I ever told you about this? I don't know. But starting in probably back in in co times five years ago, I came up with this idea that we need to sort of approach this a little bit differently because people are so nervous. But I explained to them how we can help them through a process of dollar cost averaging. Get into the market, get back into the to the markets through a process. It's a dualpronged approach to get back in one foot in one foot out so that you don't have to panic that all your money's at risk and that you're but on the other hand be miserable that you're missing out on. And if and and if and if things go with you, you're making money. If they go against you, you're not losing that much. >> So that's going that went well. That's go it goes well. People appreciate that kind of uh that isn't technique. Y >> it's not what Buffett does. >> No, Buffett buys and that's it. >> Buys and holds and when he gets out, he gets out and he doesn't worry about it one way or the other. Goes up, so what? If it goes down, I don't care. >> Right. >> Yeah. He He takes an emotion out of it. That's the key. That's the real key. >> Yeah. >> Have a plan and execute. >> Correct. And if you're wrong, uh uh re readjust adjust. All right. So, it's a big week for earnings. We talked about that vague Fed decision. The Fed is meeting today and tomorrow, and they're going to come out with their rate decision tomorrow. For the most part, >> what's the consensus on this? >> Pretty much that it's a nothing burger. >> There's very few that think that the Fed is at this point inclined for a lot of different reasons. one being the GDP at like 5%. Productivity at 5.9% and all the other numbers that we saw manufacturing getting a little bit better, unemployment hovering in a reasonable area, initial claims still at about 218,000 on average. So, you know, when you look at that and you look at the ISM composits, all the things that go into uh and the inflation numbers, nobody really believes the Fed is going to do anything at this at this meeting. They'll talk it up a little bit. One of the interesting thing that's going on right now, the dollar just hit a four-year low. And the dollar pretty much cascaded down over the last, I don't know, four or five days. And in particular, after President Trump was asked about the dollar, he says, "I don't care about the dollar. I don't care. It's good. Things are good. It's going down. It's fine." That's not usually what you hear from people in charge. Usually, it's we have a strong dollar policy. The strong dollar is in the best interest of the United States government and uh and our nation from an economic standpoint. That's not what he did. That low fell about a one and a half percent. That's a huge multi-dev deviation differential than you ever see before. You don't usually see those kind of moves. But but in a way, I kind of agree with him. The fact is that we always know have known that a weak yen has been very good for >> Japan. >> For Japan. >> Yeah. >> It's good for their economy. The stock market just rides right along with that. And they've been basically, you want to call it, the market has been fine, but the yen has been riding lower for years. And we don't call them currency manipulators of course, but >> yeah, at one time within within our memories, the yen was a hundred to a dollar. >> Yeah. >> You're talking about 50%. Now it's 150. Yeah. 50% debasement of that currency over the years. >> Yeah. And nobody's really complaining about it, >> right? >> Except our car companies. >> Exactly. >> I mean, I would if I was a car company, I'd be complaining about why should why should Toyota make a better car cheaper? >> I agree. So, the dollar's been in freef fall. It's been helping gold and silver. that's been helping risk assets like copper and uh helping a variety of other things uh like exports and uh also creating a uh risk-on attitude for you know equities natural gas prices exploding with this big summer storm. Now they're talking about uh what do we have here? We have I don't know what that was called the super cyclone I think it was. >> No, no, that's coming. The >> bomb cyclone. >> The bomb cyclone is coming. What about the ar What about the vortex? Where's that? >> The vortex we haven't seen for a while. That usually comes It should have come and gone by now so it can affect the stock prices. >> Yeah, >> we just have not seen it. >> The polar vortex. >> Yeah, the polar vortex. I've not uh Yeah, that'll be next year. >> And what do we have? What do we have last week? This week, what is this? >> This is some something else. They didn't give it a good name. Never caught on. I need to be out of town in DC next week. I am so nervous. >> Oh, I wouldn't go. >> I have to go pretty much when that bomb cyclone is going to be passing by. >> Yeah, >> I feel like I'm going to go outside and just freeze in space. And you know, >> you you're not going to get home. >> Planes, you got to deise. It always makes me nervous with the deicing. >> It looks like >> I remember one time there was a situation like that. It was like a blizzard or something. I was on the plane and we were the last plane off the runway and they were soaking us down with that stuff and we were the last plane that left that day. We were just got out just in time and they shut it down. >> Did you watch that football game? Did you watch >> Yeah, I watched all the football games. >> I mean that was the >> which one? >> The uh was it the Bears game? Which which game was within the snow? >> Oh, the [laughter] Yeah, the Denver game. >> Denver game. Yeah. Yeah. And and it started snowing. I I didn't watch the whole game cuz I watched the beginning. I said, "Oh, these guys uh you know, this will be an interesting game." And then I turned it on like like I just left for about a half an hour or something. It's a white field. This is the same game cuz it was green. Green started. They had a great um sequence where they showed like a time lapse from the beginning to the end or of of basically there was zero score after the blizzard started, >> right? Yeah, it's pretty hard to score in the a blizzard in football. >> Unbelievable. It was crazy. >> Um all right, let's talk about um a few other things. Um can't keep track of this anymore, so we're just going to lay it out there. There was announcement of tariffs on South Korean imports up to 25% after the administration accused Soul of not living up to a trade deal reached last year. This was like Monday, I think yesterday. In a post on social media, President Trump said he would increase levels on South Korea from 15% across the range of products including automobiles, lumber, pharmaceuticals, and all other reciprocal tariffs. Now, South Korea was planning on voting on the framework of the agreement that there was not that that was somewhat agreed on back when, you know, when the when all the tariffs were dropped because they were going to do something. Uh they they kind of didn't have a formal agreement as we know and uh they were supposed to do this in February. Well, the South Korean president came out and said, "Well, we're reaffirming our commitments." Cosby was down about 1% on the news and I don't know I maybe it was the South Korean president's comments but hit an all-time high of three and a half% by the close. >> Crazy, right? >> Yeah, I guess. >> Yep. Davos, what we learned? Not much. A bit of a I'm I'm tagging it as a bifurcated view of the world. There's this one view that things are fine, you know, all ahead. Let's go. And there's some that are like, uh, not so much. We got this framework of a deal, a plan with Greenland, so there's no tariffs. Again, wax on, wax off, or boy cried wolf or taco. I don't care what you want to call it, but >> who knows what it is. Yeah. >> We don't know. >> And we don't know anything. >> We know nothing. We know nothing. We're like We're like Sergeant Schultz. Remember him? >> No. Yeah. >> We know nothing. Um, gold and silver off to the races. Silver. Oh, silver on Monday. That was out of control. [laughter] It was up 15% in the early trade. It finished up about 5%. Hovering around the 112 area, 110 111 area. Let's see right now where it is, shall we? Silver's trading at 11359. And just to be clear, over the past year, do you know this number or not? Do you know how much it is up over the last one year? >> It's ridiculous. It's like uh lots. >> 271%. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> It's uh its recent high was at 114 and a quarter. That was at uh 10 in the morning on January 26th, yesterday. Yeah. >> And then it backed off hard and then today it started back off. >> They're trying to keep it from exploding. So that's why it keeps backing off hard because it could go to >> God bless you. This is this is something here. This is something. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has proven it is not. So wait, let me back up. Why is gold and silver moving so much? That's what people want to know. What is the story? Gold over 5,000 an ounce. And there's two things, right? you talked about last week and we've talked about you and I on a sidebar about the use of silver as an industrial metal and in particularly in we'll talk technology semiconductors computers etc. Right >> and batteries >> and batteries and especially that they came out with the use of the silver with the lithium that allowed for batteries to last far longer than they did in the past. That was your >> That's supposedly a a patent that Samsung owns that everyone's going to have to adopt because it prevents fires, >> right? What I think has happened when you look at Bitcoin, Bitcoin is at about 89,000 that that gold, we'll just stick on gold for a second. Gold has proven to be the debasement hedge, the geopolitical concern hedge, and the place to be when there's a lot of uncertainty. That doesn't mean it has to be bad uncertainty. This is uncertainty. Because if if we were to say it's bad uncertainty, we'd have to say the markets are down, right? The markets are not down. >> No, the markets are up and so is gold. >> Yeah. One thing is happening is I mean, the biggest market that's hit, if we were to talk about a market that is problematic, it's the Japanese bonds. they have gotten slugged with uh the recent move in their yields. Yen, yen's uh moving up in value against the dollar and the JGBs are getting absolutely smoked as yields are are gaining because there is such a discrepancy between the the bonds and and how they're priced and what the economy is really doing in a good way. I didn't catch that. >> Oh, bonds. Yeah, JGBs are getting just killed. Let's see if I can get a little reading on this. Um, do I have this here? Let's see. GP bonds. Um, but it's been it's been a lot. I mean, they're at a multi multi-deade high. Let's see. Um, January 2026, Japanese government bonds are experiencing severe volatility and a sharp sell-off with a 10-year breaking above 2.38%, a 28-year 27-year high. Lawren bonds are moving significantly. The 30-year yield yields jumping 75 basis points in less than 3 months and the 40-year-old bonds breach 4%. >> Oh, so they're normalizing basically. >> Exactly. Exactly. political developments uh because we know that there's a potential for a snap vote coming that's happening. >> Yeah. I wonder why they're doing that personally. But >> that's a whole different government process, isn't it? >> Yeah. And this prime minister who who seems to be very likable and she seems to like Trump uh is quite the character. She jumps around a lot and [laughter] it's like a little cheerleader that happens to be the prime minister. It's very funny. Well, it's working. I mean, uh, well, until recently. So, I think some of the concern is that her many of her initiatives and that's what's going to happen with a snap election that it will be I if if she's reelected, if you will. >> Every time I've seen these snap elections by these overconfident prime ministers, it's happened in England. It's happened elsewhere. It it it doesn't perform it. They I mean, the idea is that you're going to load up. You're going to you're so popular. You know, I am so popular that I can call an election. I'm going to win again and my party is going to increase in size so enormously that I can do whatever I want once I once you know the the dust clears. Yeah. >> And that I've never seen it I've never seen it work. >> Well, it's supposedly a referendum on what they are what their position is, right? >> Yeah. It's like are you agree? Do you agree with us? Yeah. >> Yeah. Let's double agree. There's a secondary agreement. >> Yes. Says doubling down. >> Yeah. So I I don't know. I mean I find that >> now we don't have that in this country. >> Well, we'd have snap elections every week. >> But what's interesting is that her what's happening here is that her policies are such that they're causing concern about the financial status, if you will, of Japan of the inability for Japan to meet their obligations because there's going to be even less money coming in from various sources. taxes, etc. to fund the government and the expenditures. That's why the bond one of the reasons the bonds are selling off and and normalizing. So, there's two of two things. But again, I think I think all this just leads me once again to the disproven belief that Bitcoin was the place to be if the dollar is going to move down. I mean, Bitcoin didn't move today at all. It's at a it's at a four-year low. The dollar >> it's it's taken on a life of its own. >> Yeah. But it's not what they >> Yeah. The whole idea was a hedge. You know, the dollar go, you know, as it economy collapses, you're going to have your Bitcoin. Well, you really want the gold and the silver. It seems to me >> I agree. I agree. >> Especially silver. And and the funny thing was the the I'll say it the con job about you know all companies should have Bitcoin on their treasury share in treasury and how the ETFs were going to make this this skyrocket. Well they did they did move them up don't get me wrong. Um and you know all the things that they promised to be you know what it could do with the blockchain and you know the alternative currency and the easy transferability and the less friction and lower cost for you know transaction. I don't know. It seemed like it was just a giant money grab to me. >> Yeah. But who's grabbing the money? >> Well, God bless him. Whoever it is it's fine. It's fine. But is this what let's let's just let's call it as it is. >> Well, you know, I've been all I just wished I bought a bunch of it at 25 cents. >> Yeah. Well, >> but the thing is I always tell people this, you know, well, you could have got at 25 cents. I know when it was 25 cent or a dollar, you say you had bought a, you know, $10,000 worth at a dollar. >> 10 bucks, you're out. >> Yeah, exactly. 10 bucks, you're out. >> 10 bucks, you're out. [laughter] I don't know how anyone could have had it for at a dollar and then kept it at 400 >> and then kept it >> right. >> You have to be a special kind of person to be doing that >> or lost your wallet which my son did. >> Yeah. Lost your wallet hopefully and he can't he found it. >> But of course he can't find it. So it's like you know his lost wallet is just lost money. He didn't pay anything for the Bitcoin but he lost his wallet because it's so long ago >> and so now he doesn't have that. would I it probably maybe a coin or two. I have no idea to be honest. >> A coin or two would pay off two coins would be good for a for a couple of years. Yeah. But still but theirs is making either would have sold earlier or lost the wallet. Those are the two options, >> right? >> Which is which is more painful psychologically? >> I think selling early would be more painful. >> I think so too because you still have the hope that one day you'll find that wallet. >> Yeah, you might find a wallet. Someday >> someday. Oh, somebody's going to find it. Somehow they're going to know it's me. I don't know how, but you know, they'll figure it out with cash. >> Undo the trade. >> Yep. Um, the economy is still strong. The US economy is expanded in the third quarter by slightly more than it was initially reported. So, revising it to about 4.4% on an annualized rate, the fastest in two years. Consumer spending advanced at 3.5% annualized pace in the last quarter which again was the fastest pace of outlays for the service uh area in three years. So that's good. Amazon on the other hand is trimming. They're uh cutting 30,000 jobs in total. As a matter of fact, I think I'll give you the punchline to this before we go to the rest. Uh there was a news item that the I don't know why there's a big deal either, but Amazon sent out the notification of the firings earlier than was anticipated by accident, which I don't know what that matters if it's a day in advance. Who cares? I mean, unfortunately, if you know you getting if you if you knew there was something coming down the pike, whether you got it on a Tuesday or a Wednesday, what's the difference? >> Yeah. You knew it was coming. >> Yeah. So, the first half of the 30,000 job cuts happened in October and now they're going to be laying off the remainder. Now, CEO Jasse once again said, and he stressed this, that is not a financial or anything to do with AI issues. Again, they're pressing that button of make sure to not tell anybody that has anything to do with AI. Layoffs amount to 10% of the corporate workforce. Company still has 1.5 million employees. And this is primarily corporate >> uh level layoffs. >> Well, they're probably overstaffed. >> They are obviously by 10% at least. >> Spirit Airlines in talks with investment firm Castle Lake for a potential takeover. This all started when JetBlue said they wanted to merge and the Biden administration said no that would not be good for the Spirit Airlines or people. Uhhuh. Uhhuh. Okay. Dumb. >> Yeah. This is a complaint of yours. It's like the bare bare feet at the airport complaint. >> Well, still everything. >> Do you realize a lot of things regarding airports now that they think about it? >> There's a lot of travel related issues I have. >> Yes, you do. H >> you got to look into that. >> Have you ever flown Spirit? >> Yeah, I love I love Spirit. >> You love Spirit? >> I've had only good experiences at Spirit. For an ex I flew to Guatemala. >> Why do you have such a bad rep? You think? No. >> No. Spend the extra 75 bucks and sit in first class. 75 bucks. Free booze. Comfy seats like you'd sit in your in your living room. Comfy cushy seats. >> You recommend flying first class. It's >> $75 extra to get to bump yourself up. Well, that's pretty cheap. >> Yeah. I flew to Guatemala. I paid whatever, like $300 for the ticket and I paid 75 bucks to go to first class. It's not a true first class. It's just it's like a business class and you're not flying very long and very far, but it's three and a half four hours and you got literally this big comfy seat and they're just throwing bottles of Cheetos at you the whole time. >> What's wrong with that? >> That that sounds like a winner. >> Yeah. So, um, >> so that's the tip of the day for you. >> Yeah, definitely. So, uh, Frontier tried to pick him up. No good. Um, so they went bankrupt to trying to pull their head above water. If you remember, I think it was Alaska Airlines and Frontier um, also tried to kill them by moving some of their routes to the areas that Spirit would would would fly out of. And and they have a big hub here in Fort Lauderdale. >> They do. >> Yeah. >> Uh did you see this article? This this piece booze am Hamilton the the Booze Allen Hamilton. You know, this is a uh a group that caters to the government u job placements, various contracts. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canled cancelled department contracts with the firm because their employee leaked President Donald Trump's tax records to the New York Times. This was really fascinating. So between 2018 and 2020, this employee Edward Little John stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers. I don't know why he did such a thing. That's first of all. SECOND OF ALL, WHY in the world does Booze Allen Hamilton have people's tax returns? >> That's what I'm wondering. >> I do not understand. Why did they have Trump's tax return? >> There's probably a reason. >> I I I tried to look into this. I had I I was there was there was nothing I could find. Now, I think he he he plead guilty to this. Stock is down 50% since the end of 2024. You lose those big contracts and you you kind of piss off the government. It's not going to help. >> Yeah. You would that is not going to help anything. >> No. Uh here's something. We've been talking about this, you and I, around in circles about this, but something I brought up and I've been saying that I'm a little bit concerned about this. There's one thing that's kind of, you know, they say, "What keeps you awake at night?" And let's just say that it doesn't keep me awake. It just doesn't allow for a fully restful sleep. And that is private credit. Private credit is um an area of alternative investing. There's private equity, private credit. This is where companies will get like a mass a bunch of money from investors and they'll go out and try to fund various different things through lending through credit. So maybe there's companies that are looking for the opportunity to expand but for whatever reason they can't go the traditional routes. Hundred different reasons why choose not to. it's unavailable to them at this stage of their existence in the world of uh of uh their company's you know process and private credit will give it to them say you know you here's a deal uh maybe we're going to own a small piece of your company for doing so uh we're going to charge you 10% plus this and that whatever it is well there has been a big concern that private credit has grown so dramatically so quickly that possibly some of the underwriting has gotten sloppy and when the economy slows down, that's when we're going to see some of these problems come out. Well, Black Rockck TCP Capital shares were lowered by about 13% on Monday after a disclosed Friday night at a late night dump. They do this sometimes. s they throw this stuff out in the public domain Friday night when you're having your cocktails so you don't think about it and you got the whole weekend to forget about it. But people didn't forget about it because on Monday the stock declined because their net asset value somehow declined by 19%. Oh god. So that means what that means is just to clarify this the net asset value is the valuation of the underlying securities in their portfolio was marked down by almost 20% since the last time they did the mark. >> Now is this the stuff in their portfolio specifically or the assets under management? >> This is the stuff in their portfolio specifically. >> So the assets under management have not been there's nothing there. >> Yeah. Black Rockck is not this is a a a particular private credit uh this Black Rockck TCP something credit partners uh something I don't know what the T stands for but this is this is a fund that specifically >> okay >> Black Rockck put together to >> do lending and private >> finance yeah >> the company's not as a value on >> de so that was a bad so they they're not good at this it sounds like >> no it's not that they're not good at it this is what's happening ing that all this was built up on the idea that private credit, all these companies would do well and money was being sent out all over the place. It's not just them. And by the way, just to throw a little bit more gasoline on this, the 19% that I mentioned was from their last mark. Uh I think the company's asset net asset value as of December 31st 2025 was expected to be about 705 to 709 which is a quarterly reduction since the end of September. That's how fast this came down. The >> the decline is primarily driven by issuer specific developments during the quarter. And um you had other companies like Owl, OWL down 3%, Aries down 3%, KKR down 2%. Not as much, but I'm telling you there's something percolating out there in the world of private credit. I have heard that liquidity is absolutely dried up in that sector. >> Example, we saw this with Owl. We saw this now. This is why these are being marked down because liquidity. People are not buying it for the price. Therefore, the liquidity is not there. And you got to mark it down. You mark it down. You're like, "Okay, look, it's like anything else. I'll sell my house to you for a million dollars." No buyers. That means there's no liquidity, right? I'll sell it to you for 750. No buyers. No liquidity. Where's the number? Well, maybe at 500. I just did a 50% markdown and that's where I got my liquidity. meaning that the market is overpriced for where it needs to be to prepare to to provide a smooth flowing uh economic model for that for that market. >> So there's no liquidity because nobody's willing to pay for it at those prices. >> Now on the other hand, we have some good news. Zoom communications, you know those guys, >> we're using them as we speak. as we speak, which by the way, solid platform. I think I use it for a whole host of things. >> It It has a low latency. It's a lot better than a lot of stuff I've run into. >> Yep. There's a stock um the stock move on Zoom recently that took the stock to a pretty significant high. Why? because there was an analysis to show that Zoom's investment in Anthropic, which they put in initially $51 million, can now be worth between two to four billion. >> Nice nice move, Zoomers. >> A hidden gem on the balance sheet. >> Yeah. >> So, the the the company's performance also got better, but this is pretty good. So, 41.2% 2% non-GAAP operating margin which is pretty good big gains from uh its unrealized gains from his AI investments stock has done very well on the other hand you may be saying what stocks aren't doing well how about United Healthcare today could you take a look at that what went on there >> no I'm completely unfamiliar with what what happened >> so overnight the administration uh decided that the this is the centers for medical medicare and medicare services or CMS came out with their Medicare advantage reimbursement rates. In the past years, it's been anywhere from let's say call it 3 to 5%. That on an annual annually they say okay the reimbursement rates will be that from the government and that would be what the various insurers could count on. Okay, make sense? >> Yeah. >> So, >> yeah, it was it was a payoff. It was the whole thing was created as a as a bribe to the insurance companies to keep financing Democrat uh legislative people. >> Well, if that's the case, the administration said, you know, we're going to give you 0.9% increase uh in 2027. So, you know, through the next year and that was far below the 4 to 6% >> uh wasn't give them any increase. They shouldn't be getting the money at all. Why are we subsidizing insurance for people when to by giving direct payments to insurance companies? >> I would I would agree with you. But it it's it's >> because they still gouge the customer >> for the Medicare. It's the Medicare payment that goes to the insurance companies for the various services. So there's not going to be any increase allowed for the services and thereby not paid to the insurance company, >> right? You know, from the benefit. Yeah. So, so United Healthcare that and they came out with some other earnings information down 20% today. >> Looks like a nice thing to pick up. >> Well, could be. Maybe somebody has it on the game already. You don't know. >> It's possible. >> Yo, that's what you have on there that's not listed. >> Uh, United Healthcare has >> falling knife. >> Yeah, I know. >> Or a dead cat bounce. >> Yeah, one of the two, >> right? Um, United Healthcare has significant exposure to Medicare Advantage, roughly 30% of national enrollment, making it really vulnerable. So, um, I don't know, the the CVS Health and Elevance Health were dropped about 13 to 14%, human dropped about 21%. Could it be, sir, that once again this will be a one of those wax on, wax offs. Could it be that this is really a negotiation component rather than just an edict that they'll come in and they'll say, you know what, okay, we review this and we we saw what you wrote us and the cost of this is going up, etc. and that, you know, we'll we'll meet you halfway. And then what happens to the stock? Skyrockets. Just think about it. Just something for you to think about. something for you to chew on, sir. >> Well, that's why you put it on the game. >> I don't know if I put on the game. Did I put on the game? >> Oh, yeah, I did. >> I don't know. You got one there. I can't see. You did. >> There it is. Yep. >> I'll make it a purple. I'm I'm jumping on that one. >> Okay. Um, you want to talk about the earnings coming out this week? Tech earnings. Can you can you actually go down and look at that table? You see that table? Is that a nice table? >> Let me go find the table. Hold on. That's embedded right in there. You see that? >> You do that. You embed these tables. That's why people should go to the website more often. >> Yeah. DH unplugged. >> They can Well, they're there. By the way, they should kick the the donate button. >> Oh. >> And help the show. >> Yeah. It'll be a That would be a That would be a kick that's worthwhile. If you haven't done so, by the way, you should feel very bad about yourself. Just letting you know that. I'm not going to start with like a whole chain letter kind of thing that if you don't do it, it's bad luck and all. I'm not going to say that, but I'm just telling you it's something you should do. Go over to dhunplug.com, find the yellow button and click on it and donate at will. Point is I was making I I put this into uh one of the I think I put this as a Google Gemini. I said, "Do me a favor. make me a table HTML coded uh that shows the earnings coming up this week, the report date, the estimated EPS, and what I should be looking at. And pops right pop right out >> just like that. >> Well, that was nice. >> That nice. >> It probably cost 20 bucks to do that. >> I know. >> And you got it for next to nothing. >> 14 gallons of water consumed. >> 14 gallons of water. You're ruining the country. >> I'm such a bad man. I'm such a bad man. And let's go through this quickly. What I'd like to say is um go over to the website because this lists when the earnings are coming out, the expectation of earnings and revenue as well as what we're looking at, what we're focusing in on. Uh for example, for Microsoft, which is going to be on the 28th, which is tomorrow after the close, earnings per share estimated to be about $3.86 86 cents on about $80 billion of revenue. Now, by the way, all of the names, most of the names talk about here are going to be also capex related. What are they spending or not spending? Meta is going to be a big one in that area. Metad does these massive overcommitments of capital like >> massive. Now, if they come in, >> they know how to spend money. >> They He's good at that. He Mark Zuckerberg has spent a lot of money in his day. >> I think he wastes it. He did so on the metaverse. Remember that. Where is he even where's the hello? Hello metaverse. Where are you? >> No, but it was it was was money. It wasn't Well, I mean, yeah, you're going to lose money on some of these things like that. And he did. I think 72 billion or something is I don't know what the number is outrageous. And uh but is that was the expense of the money well managed? Was it how much squandering was going on? Do you remember how much that stock fell during the whole metaverse process? >> Yeah. >> Oh, that was terrible. That was terrible. So, >> it's a good time to pick it up. >> Yeah. >> 100 bucks. >> Yep. Easy. So, right now there's a lot of spending going on and if if if Meta comes in over the top, it may hurt the shares. If it comes in under, may help the shares. Uh we're going to look at things like Azour and cloud growth for Microsoft. Things that are going to be the big the big issue is I think in margin margin stability has been something that everybody's been calling into question because they've been spending so much money and we haven't seen the payoff for the most part. You know, there's not a lot of revenue coming in for for all this. There's still a lot of a lot of smoke and mirrors. Then we got Tesla coming in. >> They was paying off fine for a while and then they get carried away. These guys don't know when to stop, >> right? which is, you know, was [clears throat] the mentality to get where you are, which is the the kind of the catch 22. When you have the mentality to get where you are, you're not going to change your practices. >> Correct. >> You don't back down. You're not wrong. You have to be fired. You have to be fired. The board should fire the people that are doing, you know, they should have a clue and fire them. >> Get rid of them. >> Yeah. Tesla >> Tesla's coming out uh again also January 28th after the close that's tomorrow Wednesday uh expectation about 40 cents revenue about 24 and 25 billion meanwhile uh this stock is valued so high that it makes my nose bleed just talking about it the um >> what is the EPS on it >> EPS is looking to be about 40 cents PE ratio is something absurd >> yeah what's the PE ratio that's actually what I meant to ask >> Tesla >> it's got to be is it over uh 288. >> What? >> Yeah. 288. >> Okay. Yeah, you're right. [laughter] >> Now, what they'll do is here's the magic of what Tesla does. They are going to come in. They are going to come in with a slow. >> They got a big shovel. Is it what the magic? The magic is a huge shovel. >> Huge shovel of >> that they're going to send you. But we know, >> have you seen the latest thing? It look like a little railroad that comes. It's going to be the driverless car that's going to compete with Whimo. Have you seen that thing? >> No. >> Oh, they rolled it out. There was Elon and there people ooing and aawing. It was like, you know, you see the zuks? You've seen that zuk? >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Well, this is more more dynamic looking. It looks like a streamliner from the uh from the age of of of the diesel locomotives, you know, the the central Pacific or one of the or no, the uh New York that New York railroad that had the funny looking engines. It's just the damnedest looking thing. It looks great, but it's just like you can just tell it's bull crap. >> Yeah, I see it right here. It's got those weird wheels. What's with the wheels? >> It's got weird wheels. Everything about it, >> huh? I like the robo van. Everything's very futuristic looking like it's from uh like like the movie with Arnold Schwarzenegger to Mars. Those kind of things. But what they do is if things don't go well, they'll just bring up robot tax. He's an autonomous driving and that that just >> No, that's what he does. That's what the shovel's for. >> Yeah. Exactly. Apple will be coming out also Thursday. >> That's great. >> Yeah. So Boeing company delivered massive amount of airplanes, highest since 2018. Brought in 23.9 billion in the last 3 months of 2025, which was a 57% increase over the same period in 2024, which was great. >> We got another moonshot. US natural gas prices surged 17% on Monday morning, climbing above $6 for the first time since 2022. This is all the winter storm Fern leaves hundreds of thousands without power. Um, National Weather Service forecast wind chills somewhere like -50. That's - 455 degrees Celsius.50 is 455 degrees C. What happens? is do we converge and somehow >> you're asking the wrong I you have to put it in the converter for me. >> Let's see what is -50° F in Celsius. That's what I want. Negative. Yes, it's 45. Yeah, I guess the way the out the the way the calculation goes it it works. It starts to fall apart in terms of separation way below zero. >> Yeah. Because if the other side at at 50 degrees Fahrenheit, it's 10 degrees Celsius. >> Yeah. Something like that. Okay. >> So, >> it's cold. >> Yeah. Really cold. >> Um, so natural gas, by the way, is used in a whole bunch of things. Do you know what the number one thing that well I would say by by the number one thing that it powers is the electric grid. 43% of the US electric grid is fueled by natural gas. Did you know that? You knew that. >> I did not know that. I thought it would be uh less than that to be honest. >> Pretty amazing. So once again, just to be clear, electric isn't just this thing that just appears somehow in your wall. Yes, you're burning stuff. >> You're burning something. You're doing something. You're >> for the fire people. >> Yeah, >> there's always something being burned somewhere. [laughter] >> Yep. >> Uh we got this. Uh not again. Here we go. The Democrats are threatening another government shutdown. This time there's a partial government shutdown is set to begin on January 30th. They expect >> this is an interesting new strategy they've come up with. >> I don't understand the point. What's the point, >> Schumer? Well, the point is is that Schumer's the Schuman did the first one, too. Schumer's, you know, they keep think, "Oh, he's going to be kicked out. They don't like him." But Schumer's actually running the show. And Schumer has um come up with a thesis that because the president is because because the public at large doesn't understand how anything works. >> They don't understand how city government works. They can barely use a bubble gum machine. It's It's pathetic. And so he's determined that the public at large, not the smart people that listen to podcasts like this one, >> but the public at large will always blame the president for anything bad happening, whether it's caused by the Republicans or the Democrats. The president gets the blame. And that and that blame needs to carry into the midterm so the Democrats can take the their uh the House of Representatives back. And this is all about that. >> Well, what's happening now is the idea is to, you know, if they if they if they don't withdraw ICE from Minnesota and blah blah blah and all this other stuff, they're going to cause another shutdown. >> Yeah, I think ICE is coming out anyway. Yeah. And in closing, before we get to the game, I want to talk about one thing that I thought was really kind of interesting because I I I found this this part for the course, but I think it bears a discussion because there's a reality check with this and and this is how it goes. ex- Finance Minister Nota from Japan um who currently co-hosts the largest co co has the largest opposition party in Japan. He says that the Japan is unlikely to get international consent for intervention on the yen. The yen the bond selloff requires Japan to be in crisis mode and the government must vow to restore uh physical discipline to end that yen fall. Japan must create an environment allowing for steady Bank of Japan rate hikes, he said. So this clearly shows us in my opinion that this whole thing that's is going on, it's all political. It's it's all aligned to whatever their beliefs are at that time. Because if an ex- finance minister, he would never say something like this as a finance minister when he was in charge in office. These are the kind of things the Fed does not say. Jay Powell would not say, you know what, things look shitty. We're going into a recession within months. Strap in. That doesn't happen. >> No, it never has. >> You can't You can't do it. So, um, again, if he was in this role, this wouldn't happen. I think it just goes to show and prove that, uh, I don't want to call it political, but it it's all about time and place. And when you listen to all these players, markets won't because markets just like to hear what they like to hear. And good news, they'll just run on, bad news, they'll ignore. But just remember, take some of this stuff with a bit of a grain of rice. Okay, ready? Yep. This is a game that we play. It's not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. It's not a recommendation of any kind. Nothing on the show should be considered investment advice or a recommendation. If you choose to invest in any of the stocks mentioned, you should know that it may carry risk along with the risk of a loss of principle. You should also seek out professional financial advice for your particular situation. We assume no risk as these are not to be considered recommendations. Horowitz company, myself or John Cedor may invest in any of the securities mentioned and we'll disclose that on the website under the weekly stock pick section. You can go to dhunplug.com and see all the names we discussed in the segment along with the performance information from the date discussed as well as any additional important disclosures. All right. Uh news headline by the way uh SoftBank just uh looked to agree to invest another $30 billion dollar in open AI. >> They're going all in. >> It sounds like it all in. Take the list, sir. >> Yeah. Well, he's a guy's something of a genius. So you watch when he gets out. >> Right. So, here we have a a a stock pick that are all green from 2025 and all red from 2026, which I found fascinating. It's a funny looking. It looks like a It's a funny looking thing. Uh, and I have to say your uh L3 Harris has passed up my Eli Liy as the top superstar on the on the list. Might I say that your high craft m high craft mining it sucks that you got pulled out >> because >> it went up, didn't it? >> Yeah, it's up to 54 now. >> Yeah, >> it got cracked that one day and that was that. >> Yeah, I know. Well, that's the problem with the the way we play the game. But that's the game the g the game is what it is. But it it is at 54. So it's a it's still it is something is well, you know, it's silver. Why wouldn't it be up? It should go up higher. What I'd like to look for now is I would like to find the top investment in copper mines. >> I mean, isn't that um I'm trying to think who that could be. If it's Well, >> and by top, I don't mean the biggest. I mean the one that's got the best potential. >> Uh yeah, Freeport is Rio Tinto. Southern Copper. >> You think so? So, Southern Converse one, SECCO, there's some other smaller ones, mid-tier you want. That's probably the ones you want to buy like an erro. I wonder if tech is tech still is tech. Let's see. Tech resources. Did it get bought? >> No, it's still there. It's up three bucks today. Year to date. >> What's the name of it? >> Tech Resources. Um, it's up 17% year to date. See what it looks like over. Yeah, it's an alltime high. I think it's an alltime high. Yeah, >> it should be at an alltime high. It's close to alltime high. Actually, it's not 50 58. I just saw 62 back in 2011. Then you got >> what's at now? >> 56. But let's look at the other one that I found that I was think Oh, SECO. That's another one. That's a pure play. Let's see. That's uh Max. Let's see that one. Yeah, that was an alltime high. That one's really an alltime high. Wow. Wow. That was a year ago was 93. Now it's 194. I told you that was a good one. It >> doubled. >> That's a good one. >> So you got that's up a lot. 7,000% since 1996. >> H that's reasonable. >> Earnings came out. EPS. Yep. So, you got Southern Copper, Tech Resources, Freeport Microaran. That's a big one, though. Um, what else do we have here though on the list? Let's see. Oh, yeah, that was up to 54. So, uh, I'm going to buy United Healthcare as a rebound potential. >> Yeah, you're going to put that purple up. I'll jump in on that. So, let's do that. Let's put this Let's put that as purple. Purple. Like purple. This one here. Yeah. It's not dark enough. I need a little darker. It's not the right color. Here we go. Okay. And then Oh, and I'm going to short Tesla into earnings. >> Yeah, I see that. >> Maybe dumb. Try it. Try it so many times. >> Well, this seems like the most risky of all. Used to remember Netflix when it had this phenomenon. You couldn't ever hit it, right? >> But you But you but now look where Netflix is. It's in the toilet. Well, if if you say so. >> Well, Netflix Netflix stock is down in the last year to date it's uh down 6%. One year it's down 12%. >> It's hardly >> down 50%. >> Its high >> So, >> its high was 129. >> I don't I I you Yeah. Well, I don't like Netflix. I I don't like playing >> either. 40 $40 off 50% down. So, I have one pick. >> Okay. What do you got? >> Sky West. >> What's the symbol of that? >> Uh, SKW, I think. >> I think it's SKW. What is the symbol? Where are you? Well, I lost track of it. >> SKW is not it. So, SK >> SK KW is it? >> No. SK1. >> No, no, no. That's Sorry. That's That's where they're over. Yeah. That's what that's their hub. It's the name of an airport. Uh what is this? >> SKYW. >> SKY. >> $98 a share. >> Yeah, something like that. Why? >> Why? Tell me. >> Well, uh twofold. It's I would say basic research. But what happened was a friend of mine got hired by them. He's a PR guy and he got hired by them and he's always seems to be in companies that are very successful. And the fact that they dug this gap out of the blue and hired him, I said, "Sky West, that's what do they even do? Maybe I get some free tickets." I'm thinking and so um I'm looking at their at their wiki page and it's a fascinating company. The the beginning of the company is fascinating. What they do is fascinating. They're not a normal, you know, they're they're a regional airline, but they also don't they'll say, "Yeah, yeah, we'll be regional for you, and we'll be regional for you. They'll be regional for Delta and the and United, and we'll work with you guys at Alaska." So, this like a It turns out they had the one of the biggest fleets, if not the biggest fleet size of 515 planes. >> Wow. >> In the world. >> They do like a white label thing. >> Yeah. It's like a white label, but they also use their own brand. So, they like Kirkland. I mean, you know, Costco, >> right? >> Oh, that's cool. >> So, uh I was impressed with that that scheme. I've never seen anyone try doing this. >> Oh, I like it. >> So, >> all right. Well, we're ending now because we're running over and we don't like to run over. >> We don't want to run over. Okay. >> So, I will see you again uh next Tuesday. >> Got it. Bye. >> Bye. >> You've [music] been listening in on a conversation with John C. D'vorak and Andrew Horowitz. Hope to be with you again soon. Bye-bye. Now, I'm not broke, but badly bent. I'm not down to my last scent, cuz I got a dollar, but it's my last dollar bill. Yes, sir. In my pocket there's a dent. All my dough is nearly spent, but I got a dollar [music] and it's my last dollar bill. Oh, I'd love just one more buck. Fortune left me by chance. Now, here's a hint. I feel like a men. You [music] can hardly tell by a glance. I don't care. No millionaire can give [music] me the ISIS stack cuz I got a dollar. My last dollar bill. 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