Stock Pick: The guest pitches IonQ (IONQ) as a speculative play on Quantum Computing, citing accelerating government focus and big-tech interest as potential catalysts.
AI Financing Concerns: Skeptical view on the circular funding dynamics among Nvidia, OpenAI, and Oracle, suggesting vendor-financing and hype-driven capital raises could be unsustainable.
Macro & Metals: Historic plunge in silver alongside a rising U.S. dollar and the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair fueled volatility; gold also fell sharply.
Crypto Winter: Bitcoin and Ethereum declined materially, with worries about leveraged positions and staking returns failing to offset large drawdowns for high-profile investors.
Energy Volatility: Natural gas spiked on weather headlines then reversed quickly, underscoring the difficulty of trading short-term commodity moves.
Earnings Picture: S&P 500 beats remain solid; Apple posted strong results despite component constraints, while Healthcare earnings lag on reimbursement dynamics.
Tesla Risks: Concerns over Tesla’s pivot away from Model S/X toward robots and autonomy, heavy capex plans, and potential corporate reshuffling raise execution and demand questions.
Transcript
This episode is sponsored by Interactive Brokers. And Interactive Brokers has key competitive advantages for sophisticated investors just like you. IBKR's margin loan rates, for example, are from just 4.14% to 5.14%. In fact, IBKR was rated one of the lowest margin fees by stockbrokers.com. Compare IBKR's client's low margin borrowing cost to other brokers like Schwab, Erade, Fidelity, and Vanguard, who charge hundreds of basis points above IBKR's low rates. The best informed investors choose Interactive Brokers. Margin is only for experienced investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. Rates are subject to change. Get started today at ibkr.com/compare. member SIPC. >> Hello and welcome to D'vorak Horowitz Unplugged, an hour-long discussion of activity in [music] the financial markets around the world featuring columnist John C. D'vorak and money manager Andrew Horowitz. This conversation [music] is casual and unrehearsed. Let's join John and Andrew now. [music] >> I'm John Cavorak >> and I'm Andrew Horowitz and >> it's the 3rd of February 2026. I got to tell you something. I'm hot. I'm hot under the collar, but cold below the collar. It is freezing here. It's like >> It's about 65 here. >> It's like 30 It was 32 degrees this morning. That's in That's in South Florida. >> Is that from the bomb cyclone? >> It's either the bomb cyclone, the arctic vortex, or the uh There was another thing they had too, wasn't it? An arctic blast. >> Blast. >> One of those. And you know what happens down here that is very important to understand and to know about and be careful of when the temperatures get down below 40. Do you know what that is? >> Uh old people just drop dead in the street. >> Close. Very close. Actually, seriously, very close. Iguana side. It's It's a mass problem. They just fall out of the trees. There's full out of the trees and they just And if the iguanas are down there, >> there's a lot of iguanas. like a lot like to to a point that I can't put any flowering plants in my backyard that may be somewhat tasty to them because they'll strip them down in a day. It's a big problem there. They're also called down here for those in the redneck bill the chicken of the tree. >> People eat them. [laughter] >> And you're allowed to shoot them here. So, >> shoot them. >> You're allowed to shoot them. I'm serious. I'm not kidding. So, uh, they fall out of the trees and they just lay there and you think they're dead, but they're really not. They're like in a in a in a mass dormant hibernation mode of some sort. And what happens is that when they warm up, if they warm up without totally freezing, I mean, if they freeze, they're dead, right? >> Yeah. But if they get like into the 32s and they don't really get fully like the blood doesn't get frozen then and the heart doesn't fully they go down to this deep deep deep deep hydrronation and a lot of people what happens is they take them and they just grab them and they maybe I don't know put them in their car or something to throw them out and all of a sudden they come to life and they [laughter] start scratching everything >> yeah I know the idiosyncrasies of Florida. [laughter] >> Florida man scratched to death by uh hibernating a iguana. [laughter] Well, here we go. We got a lot of really great things to talk about. I mentioned I was cold below the collar but hot above the collar because there's a lot of things that going on that you and I have talked about uh and some things that were kind of a little nutty. But number one, we did have last week the absolute worst day ever for silver >> ever on record. We'll talk about that. And that and that that ties out, by the way, to the same day just so happens that the new Fed chair was named. >> So, >> oh, that's an interesting coincidence. >> Yeah. So, so I kind of did a little research on this um and brought this whole thing full circle to understand really kind of some of the dynamics there. Uh there's a pause on space, which is not the space bar. I'm talking about the space up there with what's going as well. Um, so the markets we have the issue about silver and gold, platinum for that matter too. Uh, Bitcoin plunging. We're in a crypto winter. You've heard that before. So what's cryp what's what's Bitcoin down to? >> It was like it was it's been down to I'll pull it up right now. But it was down to I think 76 and change at the low there. um kind of at about 78. It's been popping up. 76 is kind of a magic number. I think 76 half or 77,000. And the reason for that is that that is a big there is a big piece of Bitcoin owned by Michael Sailor Strategy or Micro Strategy with an average cost overall of about 77,000. So there's a thinking that when it gets to that point, he's going to load up again and start buying. So therefore, those out there are picking it up. Ethereum crashed. You got Tom Lee's Bit Mine uh company down about six billion now on that investment. He was on TV a couple days ago talking about how not a big deal. Not a big deal. The reason is that um it pays about they staked it so it's about a $400 million interest payment on it annually. So they're making that. But oh Tom, uh if you're down six billion, I don't care that you're getting the income from it. You're down 6 billion. And what happens when people want their money? They're going to take a huge loss. So that's going on. Uh we're going to do a deep dive today in January economic results. I thought we would kind of go through that. We haven't done that in a while to really go through the nitty-gritty of what's going on. >> True. Yeah. >> Um and the US dollar is rising from multi-month lows, which is another reason why you probably saw that big move on big convergence of items and things that happened over the last week or so. Uh EM is still powering ahead and Elon Musk did a uh I I guess I'd call it a financial PT Barna move last week with a few things with regard to SpaceX, XAI, Tesla, all that. Doing once again something that's probably not going to be done, but who cares? Nobody Nobody fights, you know. Yeah, it's fine. Say what you want to say. [laughter] >> Yeah, big guy. So, by the way, just to to reel us back to the iguanas, it's called being cold stunned. They're they're in a cold stunned state >> and they just fall out of the trees. >> Oh, they can't hold on. So, they just fall out. They just fall and they're just laying in the in the street. >> Pass out up in the tree and down they come. Huh. >> Yeah. So, they could live in this 40°ree weather for a while, but again, below freezing is is a problem. That would be great because they are a nuisance. That's why they you're allowed to kill these things. and they're everywhere. There there are some areas that you're like, why is why is the grass moving like that and like realize, oh my god, it's all those green iguanas just scurrying around everywhere and they get big and then they turn orange. >> Yeah, they can get pretty big. We had a pet iguana for a while >> and then what do you do with it? You put it outside for it to multiply and populate down here in Florida probably. >> Uh we sent No, we actually literally put it in a box and sent it to Florida. [laughter] open before Christmas, perishable. Very nice. Well, right on schedule. You know, even though we see some cold snaps around the country, the fact of the matter is that polar polar vortex, the Arctic blast, what do you call it? The Arctic, what was it? The Arctic >> bomb cyclone. [laughter] >> The bomb cyclone. Remember when we talked about this and how natural gas was spiking up dramatically and it was spiking on the futures, it was spiking on the spot. Um, this and I said, "What do we say?" We said, you know, just be this is a great lesson to watch, >> not to panic because this kind of thing, especially when it's weather related, will come down almost just as fast as it went up. >> Right? >> Natural gas was down 25% on Monday, down about 28 30% from its recent high. Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike, but there's still a lot of winter out there. and Pakahani Phil what on Monday Groundhog Day uh six more weeks of winter. So not that I m maybe traders look maybe the pucks of honey fill fund will buy natural gas on that. I don't know. >> Yeah, I doubt it. >> Yeah, I doubt it too. But this is right on schedule. You know, it didn't take too long. Could you have made money on it? Probably. uh maybe if you shorted natural gas futures, you know, maybe if you short the natural gas too much work, >> but yeah, this is or maybe buy some options on it for that matter. But a lot of this is priced in the people that know this, the models that they go with, just to let you know. No, it seems easy. It see and we knew it was going to happen, but the models already account for a lot of that volatility inside. >> It's impossible. Yeah. You have to be that you have to be that's a specialist's job. >> Exactly. Exactly. Being in the pits during those periods are probably not stress free. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> All right. Some more about let me talk about some things that are getting me a little hot and you tell me what you think because I I respect your opinion on these things especially when it comes to technology. So this first item Jensen Wong we know him of course the uh the the leader of Nvidia guy >> Mr. Leather jacket. leather jacket fella. Uh he um he said this weekend that the company's proposed hundred billion dollar investment in open AI was never a commitment. Specifically said never a commitment and that the company would consider any funding rounds one at a time. He said it was if it was never a commitment they invite us they invited us to invest up to 100 billion and of up to 100. Hey, John. Uh, if you want, you can give me up to, you know, $100,000. I I don't want I I won't take a dime over. Just $100,000. >> Okay. >> Yeah. They invited us to invest up to hundred billion dollars. And of course, we were we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time. Now, I want you to remember that slug of information and think about all the other things we've been talking about, the circular financing, the vendor financing, the uh daisy chain, as my dad would probably call it. You know, this this everybody's getting a little piece of the action from somebody else and somehow at the end of the day, you're just doing, you know, you're just you're just you're just it's it's financial masturbation. as opposed to >> Yeah. A circle jerk would be a better way. >> Circle jerk. Yeah. So now let's take that point and let's add to the next point which came out I think it was Monday. No, Sunday night. Sunday night Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of both equity and debt because they need some more funds to build more data centers. I like the way they put it as a fundraiser, as though it's like a charity. >> Yes. Oracle. Now, let's hearken back to do you recall that Open AI No, that Yeah, the Open AI said they were going to invest up 300 billion into Oracle, shot the stock up to the moon. Remember that whole one? >> Oh, yeah. We watched that very closely and knew it was a it was a fake out. And then Nvidia is funding Open AI with commitments that are not commitments. And we realize that Oracle had too much debt and their free cash flow is a problem for paying that debt service. And there's all sorts of other things. and Oracle stock came way down and everybody started questioning whether or not and how not whether or not how it would be possible for Open AI to fund that far out over the next three three years four years on on revenues that they don't even they're not even close to getting revenues I'm not talking about earnings revenues forget about the fact you got to cut back take off expenses off that how are they going to have capex in those kind of numbers in those in that many years. What they did was they created this very interesting um oasis of finance, something you see in the distance that may or may not be there, but you hope to be there. When you get there, you can only think about all the wonderful palm trees and coconut juice and the nice, you know, hot springs and cold water and the fan the fans by the by the lounge chair, you know, that kind of thing. And if you think about all these things, just these two things in particular together, this whole thing is really in question because if this one didn't commit to that one, how is that one going to commit to that one on money they don't even have? >> I know. It's and it's it's like the same process that they pushed at us only backwards in reverse. >> It's unbelievable. So now instead of everyone getting this, you getting this money and I'll pass it to this guy and he passes it to that guy, he passes it to this guy, then they pass it back to me. Now it's no, I'm going to pull it from this guy and well then they're going to pull it from that guy and it's going to get pulled and pulled and pulled uh the other way and so there's going to be no money in the system. It's pretty funny. There was never anything to begin with. >> No, it was all bull crap. That's the point. And now they'll try to massage No, they got to be careful. They can't, you know, Nvidia can't say we're not doing this because that don't forget Nvidia, >> which is exactly what they said, by the way. >> Right. But Nvidia is giving money to OpenAI. So Open AI can for them to open AI to buy more Nvidia chips. >> Yeah. >> And then OpenAI is giving more, you know, uh, money to Oracle so they can then expand the Open AI and and use their platform. I >> Yeah, open AI is done. >> It's crazy the whole thing. only all all the people watching this say say that that company's over. >> Do you remember when Sam Olman was when he originally came out as a non-owner because it was a charitable SL or not charitable was a nonprofit. >> Yeah. and how Sam Alman was against all the things about profitability and all this and it was going to be you know for the good of people this whole thing right and he wasn't going to take he was taking some like ridiculous salary and he had no ownership >> what happened he was the ultimate altruist >> yeah well they were called what was the name of that group effective altruism or something or something like Quakers. He's a Quaker. >> Well, whatever he is, he we saw the writing on the wall. >> Yeah, really. >> There's money to be made. >> Yeah. Well, look at that. Hello. So, but but you look at him and he is a the ultimate salesman, you know, posing in a highly intellectual engineering suit or managerial or whatever you want to call it, but it's it's really a a shill game here, which is what's going on. That's what's going on, right? >> Shell game. >> Shell shell shell game by the shells. Shilling it. Yes, I agree. Shell game. All right. Uh, a little uh quick side note because I I I learned about this this week and I wanted I think I think you'll probably know about this. I was looking at um a particular type of wine and trying to understand about this wine and found out something about let me see if I can pronounce this correctly, please. Uh, botricus sinera. >> Betritus. >> Betritis sinera. You know what that is? Obviously, it's a it's a fungus causing gray mold on grapes causing >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Causing bunch rot. >> Uh or or what's what's really known in the wine world as the noble rot which concentrates sugars and creates high value dessert wines. cuz I was looking at short turns. >> Yeah. I'm surprised you haven't already been over this. >> I have not. I never >> shocked actually. >> I've never >> It's like a very weak spot. It's one of the greatest products in the world. >> Yeah. I So, I have this dinner coming up and for the the closing uh wine pairing, you know, it's all paired and um I had to find something for the dessert. It was a very heavy uh chocolate kind of uh packaged. Not packaged. >> It's it's a heavy port. >> Yeah. So, port I was going to do. >> Sorry. I would have gone with port. >> I did port the last one. That's why I didn't do it this one. So, I went with the sautturn that would kind of work and I kind of had a look at this >> cuz it actually has turn and chocolate is not my favorite combination. But, but can please continue. >> It's not only chocolate. There's also some fruits in there. So, that's why that's why I thought it would work. >> Um, but yeah, the and I never heard of this. A tokaji. >> Tokai. >> That's what I said. [laughter] A tokai. I am not familiar with these. I'm sorry. This is not part of my wine repertoire. >> Yeah, I guess not. >> This this level of of dessert wine of sweet wine is not. >> You got to get into wait until you get to the ponios. There you go. >> Oh gosh. >> Uh so >> that's the amount of dry grapes that they mix into with the tokai. >> Now is that why sometimes you see on raisins a little bit of like dust or is that something different? >> No, that's yeast probably. >> So they got this gray mold. that sucks out the juice, if you will, and then just leaves all the concentration. Very cool. >> Well, there's more to it than that. For one thing, the betritis adds a fla a very distinct flavor to wine. Very distinct. And that's part of the appeal is that flavor. That flavor, especially when it's high, es and especially if you like it, which is the betritis flavor is generally spoken in those terms. How much betritis does it have? you you the question will be asked and how it's it really has a lot of betritis flavor. People will say that in analyzing the wines and the ones with ex with extremely high betritis taste are the ones that are the most uh cherished by people who like saw turns and and there are they are uh remarkable. Uh, it's always been a go-to for me u in in uh social situations. It it loosens people up. >> Yeah. It loosens them up. >> Yeah. >> Really? Better than a whiskey. >> Oh, yeah. >> Ah, interesting. I want to get into some uh now that we got past that something a little bit always a little something something uh for our listeners. But I want to before we're going to I want to talk about the economic points of interest from January and go through all of them. By the way, the partial shut partial government shutdown this week for whatever reason because in the past we had government shutdowns. We didn't really ever have a uh we didn't skip jobs numbers, but it seems like that's a thing now. We skip the jobs numbers. There may not be jobs Friday because of the uh of the partial the half day government shutdown. >> That's what they're saying. Yeah. >> So, I don't know what that's about. >> I'm not sure what they're up to. >> And and then the other problem is what that does is it taints the employment number. Why I say that is now it was like, well, maybe not all the information is there. Whatever comes out could be good, could be bad. It doesn't matter. and did basically just disregards the entire employment number, which by the way, historically has been one of the most important things for markets. So now we just did a fake news on that and destroyed any kind of uh use for that report for who knows how long. Once again. Once again. >> Yeah, that's a good point. >> Always always doing the same thing. Yep. Let me uh let me for a moment, let's talk about Interactive Brokers. Let me let me um ask you a question folks out there that's listening. Are you ready to take control of your financial future? Meet financial future information. The best stuff that you're going to get something you need to understand called portfolio analyst from Interactive Brokers. The free all-in-one dashboard that lets you consolidate, track, and analyze all your financial accounts in one place. You don't need an IBKR account to use it either. Just connect your accounts and see your complete financial picture, your investments, your performance and allocation, all in one single screen. Plan smarter with IBKR's new tax and retirement planners built around your goals and market assumptions. Get deep portfolio insights with detailed risk assessments and compare performance against more than 300 benchmarks. Plus, manage with confidence thanks to GIP's verified returns. So, you're ready to get started. Sign up for portfolio analyst free for everyone at ibkr.comfreepa. Interactive brokers the best informed investors choose ibkr member sipc John. That's a pretty cool thing because a lot of people are always looking for seriously looking for like uh I don't know how I did. I don't know where my stuff is. I I don't you know that's that's not easy. >> Most people don't have time for it, >> right? This this is really you just you just you just plug your stuff in. You just go in there and you kind of um link your accounts, right? They're all secure. It's all, you know, very carefully encrypted and then it just pops up on a screen for you. It's really cool. Portfolio Analyst at IBKR. Um all right, let's start with the employment numbers is where we left off and let's talk about the January employment numbers that maybe people care about or don't. We had 50,000 new jobs and um the earlier months were revised lower. Somehow the unemployment even though we didn't put anybody on >> terrible numbers. >> They dipped to 4.4% though. >> Yeah. Well, that you know that can be that can be jiggered. >> Yeah, that's the statistical part of it, not the raw numbers. >> You know, you can fool around with that number and make it go up and down, but but this 50,000 number is no good. >> No. and and the earlier months were revised lower. So, we know there's something going on there. >> And there and they were no good to begin with. >> Right. Long-term unemployment didn't change. Labor participation rates um slipped to 62.4. So, that means that there's less people actually available to be working. Uh we know that hourly average earnings rose about.3. They're up about 3.8% over the past year. Uh weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year's level. So, I mean, the employment situation, you know, it is, we've seen it, it's hasn't changed much. Um, there's other things going on. Uh, we saw last week on Wednesday a Fed rate decision. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the 3.5 to 3.75. I will tell you before my career is over, if there is anything I could wish for, anything I could wish for is to go back to one freaking number instead of this range. I can't take the range. Is it who gets 3.5 and who gets 3.75? Why is there a range? >> There shouldn't be a range. >> That's what it is. I think that started with Bernanki. >> They came up with this range. So, most policy makers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. Though job gains are slowing, inflation uh remains above target. Two committee members supported a small rate cut. These is um Mirin and Waller, which we know Mirin is an administrative shill and Waller wanted the job as Fed chair. So he was kind of brown-nosing right up to the end there. >> Well, it didn't work. >> No. Uh Powell said, you know, clearly there's a weakening labor market, calls for cutting, a stronger labor market, uh says that rates are in good place. It is no, they don't have any base. They they don't know what's going on. They're just they're just following along what's going on and trying to not in my opinion upset markets. That that's all they're doing right now. They they talk about upside risk to inflation. They talk about downside risk to employment and that's not a big deal for them anymore. But uh they think they're at a good place right now. They did get a stronger financial forecast. The outlook for the economy since the last meeting. Things are heating up a little bit. We see that in GDP productivity. We see it in a lot of numbers. So, you know, our initial claims are are are holding in right above the 200 what 10,000 per week. Not bad. So, they said most of the o overrun in goods, the pricing issues are because of tariffs. But we think tariffs are likely to move through and be a one-time price increase, which there is some truth there. There's a lot of truth there. If we have a 10% price increase, if we have a 50% price increase in a widget this year and it stays that because the tariff, but the 50% stays on, we don't have any further inflation next year, do we? >> Right. >> Right. >> No more inflation, but price sticks still as high as hell. >> Well, people keep, you know, and I don't understand this. They don't they don't emphasize this enough in the media especially that that um inflation is cumulative. >> It's like compound interest, >> right? >> And so you know if it goes up and up and up and up and up and then then the inflation rate goes to zero. It doesn't mean it starts going down. That would be deflation. They don't want that. Whatever you do, you can't have that because then people will just stop buying everything by their nature. Oh, I'll just wait till it gets to zero. >> Right. >> And um and the public at the Lord said, "Well, yeah, he stopped the inflation rate, but the prices are still high." Yeah. Hello. >> I know that. It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. Yeah. I don't know. So, GDP, federal budget, economic growth remains strong. We know that GP GDP is rising in an annual rate of of annualized 4.4% 4% which is driven by strong spending higher exports reduced import dues imports due to the tariffs we know that the imports coming down um federal deficit for December rose to 145 billion >> for the year for the year year-over-year it's not better >> balance the budget >> yeah uh income this was interesting income and consumer spending this for January personal income and consumer spending rose >> both in October Deber >> that was the last one year over year they were up consumer price index in December was only at.3. Shelter, food, and energy all contributing. When they say all contributing means those were all higher. That's so they don't say that they're higher. This is this is the kind of verbiage that's used to just >> Oh, that's a good good catch. Yeah, you're right. >> This is the kind of verbiage that's used, you know, um to, you know, when >> to bamboozle the public, >> right? There were six guys. Three of them, Johnny, Joe, and and Jack beat the crap out of uh you know, Bobby. So, no, you don't say that. You say, "Yeah, there was a fight and three of the three of the people at Johnny Jo contributed." It softens the whole thing, doesn't it? Contributed. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Contributed to breaking his nose. Um but but it sounds better than blaming, right? If I said it different way, I would say with shelter, food and energy all coming in higher than expected and really causing the inflation rate to bend higher. Oh, what? Versus contributing, you know. >> Yeah, that's what you do. >> Pursu this is the way that we do this to soften everything. Producer prices also increased. Inflation uh slowed in the consumer in in the the producer place compared to 2024. housing. Um, existing home sales rose in December. Uh, number of homes is still low for sale. In other words, there's not a lot of supply on the market right now. And that's a combination of a couple things, right? It's a combination of one. Uh, John, if your house moved up from, I'm just picking a number here, 200,000 to 400,000 over the last number of years, and you want to move, the probability if you want to stay somewhere in the area that you're going to live, you're going to want to buy a house is probably 400,000 or so, right? You may you may back it off, but still, where if a horizontal move is going to be a $400,000 house, you sell your house. >> What's the point? >> What's the point? And if you kind of go and and let's say you go to a $500,000 house, all right, you spent an extra $100,000, right? But now what happens is that you don't have any property tax, excuse me, you don't have any capital gains probably because you got uh available $500,000 of gains that you could offset, right? Um but now you're going to have tax on a $500,000 house versus a $200,000 house when you first bought it. >> Most states have a a portability going Yeah. So that's that's a problem. Um so the so the homes for sale is a product of not just oh everybody you know oh you know we got to get more supply on the market. Yeah. Yeah. In a way you do and that will bring down the price of housing because you'll have an over supply at that point. Hello. But it's not the fact that you know they talk about 7 million houses need to be built. 7 million. We're we're lacking seven million for all the Gen X's and the the the you know all the people that >> all the people that can't afford a house. >> Right. For all the Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Manufacturing industrial production in uh last the last reading was uh up4%. So not that much 2% off of the year. Manufacturing output increased. Mining activity declined which I thought was really interesting. Mining activity declined. I'll say it again. Mining activity decline. Does that make sense to anybody? >> You got you got you got things running through the roof. You got gold, silver, platinum, platinum. You got you got these prices running like crazy and mining. You know what? I I price I don't think I want to find more of the metal that just shot through the roof. No, no, no. I'm not interested. No thanks. How crazy is that? Can you imagine being a fisherman, a commercial fisherman, the price of salmon goes to like 800 a pound. like, you know, I'm not in the mood to fish today. [laughter] The dumbest thing I've ever heard. >> I What? Well, there's got to be some rationale here. What is the point? Are they skeptical? I It It's beyond my understanding. This is beyond my prayer. These kinds of stupid things. the the this just shows everybody some of the things we talk about and pick out in the economic reports how it it it takes it it's we're first of all a big country right it's like being a big business there is so many parts of the business that go into the uh profitability and the outlook and when you have a business that is so large you can't do proper accounting on a monthly basis, let's say, you have to wait. So these numbers, we got to look at more like quarterly numbers and trends. For whatever reason, when I first started in the business, for about 15 years, the economic numbers were extraordinarily important for markets and um we watched them very carefully, still watch them very carefully, but recognize that the markets don't give a crap about most stuff. Well, as you pointed out years ago, it was when when quantitative easing began and they started around with the numbers and the money supply and everything in between. It it made everything irrelevant. >> Exactly. Exactly. Couldn't say it better. Import and export prices rose slightly through the end of the year. Okay. Earnings, let's talk about that. Uh roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings and overall results are still strong. Um 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates. So that's slightly um when I say slightly below long-term averages, it's like the long-term average like 76. So I don't think it's a big deal. Uh revenue beats remain solid at 65%. companies are reporting about a 9.1% earnings above estimates which is well above the five and 10 year surprise averages. So that's pretty good. Um >> yeah, but that that could be because of creep where you you know the over time people start doing estimates purposefully wrong. >> Well, and then you also have buybacks that are also raising estimates >> and there's buybacks and there's a lot of reasons for these changes. Well, plus you have analysts that usually pull back before the actual results so that you have the lower bar for comp. Don't forget most analysts are working for sellside. That's what you see out there. So, if you have an analyst, if I'm an analyst, John, and I'm dealing with D'vorak, Inc. And we talk, we spend time, you're like, you know, things are good. I think we'll do about uh 8% better than last year. You and I talk about it. I put out the analyst. I'm like, you know, I think they're going to do about 5 and a half% more than anticipated compared to last year. Why? Because I'm probably an owner of your stock or I want people to enjoy the benefits of that stock ownership. And if I come in with like I really think you're going to do a lot more in your sandbagging and I'm going to call it out at 10% and you only come in at eight, then all of a sudden the stock is going to come down. It's a very massaged process. >> Yeah. Yeah. And which means it's bogus >> to a degree. Yeah. Don't forget most most companies that are doing their conference calls, they're sitting there knowing what's happening to the stock every time you say something and people are are giving you commentary in your ear and probably right in front of you on a giant whiteboard uh saying, you know, yay nay. Look at the stock. Say something different. Walk that back. Talk about something else. Move into the next discussion. >> Yeah. It's like Max Headroom movie. [laughter] M Max Max had room. Remember that? He would stutter and stuff. >> Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He did that pretty good. >> Why did we Why did we have to have a Why was this this in highly intellectual being stutter? What was that about? [laughter] >> Did it make a I don't understand. >> That's a funny I don't know. It was It was just a personality quirk. >> Yeah. It And not only that, why was it almost look like the Well, the right word is it was glitching out. something you talk about a lot, the glitch on No Agenda, which you and Adam Curry get together and talk about uh things, stuff, and all sorts of news items on Thursdays and Sundays each and every week. Uh must by the way, seriously, a must listen. 2:00 must Well, you're also recorded, but you're it's a must listen weekly. >> I don't say that a lot. >> It is a must listen. We we have insight that they don't have any place else. >> I agree. I agree. But it's a glitch. It was a glitch. Um what else do we got here? The S&P is on track for uh what about 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the fifth straight quarter of double digit earnings growth. That's pretty good. Healthcare se sector shows the largest earnings declines and that happens to be because of what's going on with well an aging population. It's the uh uh payments back from um Medicare and Medicaid and uh it's not as much of you know bad loss um that's going on. It's really the reimbursements. So >> yeah, wait until we see the fraud in California be revealed. >> Ah, it's coming. You know, they say Warren Buffett once very appropriately said that, you know, during the high tide everything's great. During the low tide is when you start seeing all the muck and mire. I'm paraphrasing, right? You know, the broken glass, the condoms, the bottles, >> the mess, >> the mess, you know, and when tide comes down, that's what's happening in the healthcare area. It's all of a sudden, you know, it's not being I don't want to say covered up, that sounds bad, but not being obfiscated uh by the the high tide. You get to see everything that's happening. Tesla got to talk about that sexy no more. Do you know why they're no longer going to be selling the S uh or the X? That's it. They're stopping production entirely on the Model S and the Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on what? Autonomous technology and humanoid robot robots. Autonomous was it? Optimus. Optimus. Yeah, you got the Let him watch some more cartoons. Can we have the Fred Flintstone something? You know, the Optimus Prime that was from, of course, Transformers. >> Yeah. The uh this is very screwy. I mean there no one's these robot there's not going to these robots aren't going to happen. I mean, I' I've already seen one round of these robots back in the day in the 80s when Nolan Bushnell had his little robot that was the talk of the town at the ComX show in the one of the I forgot what year, but 86, I think, or ' 87. And it was like this little robot that would go around and and grab beer. Uh and they had a demo and it was going to be the year and everybody was predicting the year of the robot. Maybe even been before that year of the robot. That was in the 80s. The year of the robot and there there was no year of the robot. There's no year of the robot coming. >> Yep. >> Especially this I mean this elaborate robot that Musk is designing. This That's not even doable, >> right? What's the battery life? >> Well, here's the problem. Here's the problem here. There is is there any I'm sure they speculated and they put something down on paper or on the back of a napkin or something and they got together with Chimath Palo Hapitia and they put something on one piece of paper, right? What's the TAM for either of these? How do we know how many people are actually going to use the not the autonomous driving, but the robo taxis, right? How many people are actually going to buy humanoid robots? Is there really a market for that over a Model X or a Model S sedan? >> Not that I can see. I I have no plans of buying. What am I going to do with it? >> I What you would you have a human robot in the house? >> I don't I don't know what I don't understand. >> What would it do? >> I don't know. But >> is it going to help you cook? >> I won't even have Alexa in the house because I don't want people listening. I don't know what I'm saying, but I'm just not interested. Well, I don't have I'm with you on that, but what's the uh I'd rather go on the air. Uh [laughter] >> I hate when people listen to me. >> I hate it. And so uh I I just don't know who's going to who would buy one of these robots. What is it going to do? The Because you can't do the you can't put the dishes in the dishwasher yourself and you think a robot can? I don't think so. >> I don't know. This is like from him watching the Jetson when Rosie the robot was there or Lost in Space. I I don't know. This is something. It's like, you know, >> clean countertops. I mean, is that what you're going to have it doing? >> I really don't understand. Is folding clothing. I'll do that. Folding clothing. I like that one. Do the wash. >> Just throw them in a Just throw them in a drawer. Do Do clothes actually need to be folded? >> No. No. Whoever made that up is ridiculous. But again, I don't know what the real t the TAM on this is, right? the whole total addressable market on either of these items and how I think I think two things. I think >> is there any research on this? I don't think so. >> I don't I mean they must have I'm sure they've done something. >> No, I I believe there's no way because >> he just he's just overriding and saying we're just doing this. >> That's my opinion. >> How about another side of it? How about the other side of it that the Model X and the Model S are selling like And >> now you're talking, >> right? And you know what? We saw that I think it was in the Netherlands, 88% drop. There was two different countries, three different countries in Europe. I mean, the sales of of of Tesla in Europe are just pukeish. Really bad. So maybe there's something to be said about how they're not really selling and he sees the writing on the wall. Let's close this down. Save oursel. And by the way, let's say we're doing something else. So it doesn't look like we're really worried about the sales here. Those are two major cars in their arsenal. I mean, clearly the other one sell better, but the S is, if I was to have a Tesla ever, it would only be the the S. >> Yeah. The S is the prettiest one. >> Yeah. So again, then he talked about big capex like a $20 billion capex to to build this out and to make a manufacturing facility for building their own chips. So Friday with all this information stock doesn't go down, it goes up. Why? SpaceX looking for an IPO in June. Valuation moved up from about 800 billion supposedly down to 1.5 trillion all of a sudden. Now there's a discussion merging X AI into SpaceX and possibly even uh Tesla into XAI. >> Yeah. Yeah. He likes to do that kind of that kind of deal. >> Not only that, it's >> almost like a reverse merger with your own self. >> It doesn't make sense to put Tesla there. I'll give you if you have to the um >> what made sense with the solar operation he had. >> Well, and and how you rolled Twitter to make it look like you weren't losing money there. The the the shell game on this is unbelievable. The idea that Tesla would be merged in here, anything's possible. But why not say that after you have really horrific earnings, you say you're shutting down the production of two of your properties that are making a lot of money for you, a reasonable amount of money to something that's unknown. You're going to do a $20 billion spend and everybody's like freaking out about it. The stock goes down and you're like, "What can I do to rescue it?" I know. Let's scare the crap out of anybody that's short and was questioning it by saying, "You know what? we may roll this into and take private or take, you know, reverse merger it um merge into uh SpaceX, which everybody's all hot about. You just say that without any real meaningful Listen, he said he's he's done this for years. He said things that have really no actual truth. 420, remember that? Remember the 420? >> Yeah. It was also the the the tube. >> Yeah. >> Uh >> yeah. All that. It was that was the uh hyper hyperloop. >> Yeah. Hyperloop. Uh there's the number of of different things. >> But you know, you say stuff and you don't know who to believe. He's strong enough. Look, you don't want to go against him. He'll sue the crap out of you and he'll win only because he has, I don't know, throw, I don't know, 100 million at it. Who cares, right? At the attorneys. So something to think about. We have a new official, wait for it, we have a Fed chair that has been appointed by President Trump has to go through the congressional hearings and and approval process. Of course, uh Kevin Worsh, Kevin Worsh, my opinion, out of all the >> What is your opinion? >> Out of all the ones that he was going to choose, I like it. >> Now, that means >> you like him the most. >> Yeah. Which means he's probably not going to get in somehow. Uh, I like him because his history is historically, now there's been a while since some of this, but historically he's been a bit of a deficit hound. Uh, he seems to be the least of the psy, the political psy. I thought that the Hasset was just no good. Um, although I would have had so much fun with his collar for years. >> Yeah, you and the collar. >> Oh, it's horrifying. >> That bare feet at the airport. >> Yeah. Yeah. Um [clears throat] the um Rick Reer interesting interesting fellow like him. Imagine a lot of money. Interesting. Um non-academic. [clears throat] Um who was the other one? Uh Waller. Interesting. Eh I don't know. Not sure. Uh going to be also a a political pawn, I think. But I don't think Walsh is. And that's when I think markets got initially kind of spooked. And that's what set off the whole silver um plummet. maybe that they think he's going to be more hawkish. Silver plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78, making it the worst day since 1980. Just at that point, it was down 35% during the day. The worst days plunge ever in history. >> It was the worst decline in in in anything that has ever been seen since 1980 when the famous or infamous Hunt brothers crashed the market or crashed because of Hunt. >> Yeah. Well, that's what I think a lot of people were thinking >> that Worsh was the reason that set it off. >> Well, no. I think they were also thinking that when silver started to go that this was that it was a it was a fake up. Anyway, like the Hunt brothers or somebody something was going on and had to be corrected. >> Uh get out. >> Gold was down 10%. >> Gold saw a drop of 10% in the >> gold makes more sense. >> It was also a record by the way. Oh yeah, that's a pretty big move for a precious metal. >> 12% interest. Bitcoin is now down 25% from its recent level only two weeks ago. So now with all of this markets were a little upset. Now there's some conversation creeping in. We see Elizabeth Warren, a few others saying, you know, no good. No good. Well, it doesn't matter who was picked. No good. Uh, will Trump backpedal on the Kevin Worsh if Worsh is not going to play ball with him? Talk to his supporters in Congress and tell him, "Listen, I appointed him. I want it look like there was uh somebody going in there that's not a political pawn. Don't confirm him if the market's, you know, could act squirly squirly like this." and then we'll put somebody else in because you know they'll have they'll have um approval uh uh uh they'll they'll get worn down. You can't put the process. You put somebody up there. It's a two-eek process. All this goes on, the hearings, the people, you know, the stone throwing that goes on and name calling and all that. And then by, you know, all right, not confirming him. How many times can you do that? Now, there are some people that say, "Look, we are not going to approve anybody until the lawsuit with Powell is resolved. until until also the Supreme Court comes out with a real decision whether or not he could fire him because you know what if we just approve somebody then Trump could just fire him. So lots going on there. Lots going on there. Uh, a couple of things here. We got to talk about uh Apple earnings. Oh, uh, we walked back, by the way, just this week on, uh, let's see, we walked back this, we walked back that. What else are we going to walk back? Walk back Korea. Korea was down five and a half% overnight on on on Monday night. Uh, that was pretty rough. Uh, let's see what else that that market's been skyhigh hot. We also saw, what was the other one we saw? Oh, we saw a Oh. Oh, we have a deal. That's all we have is deals. We have frameworks. We got deals. We don't know what the hell's in any of it. >> You know, it's all bogus. >> We don't We got a deal with India. We're going to immediately reduce the tariffs on India. >> Yeah. Okay. >> So, this is after >> just fabulous Indian products we're bringing in. >> What's really interesting, >> Jaguar? I guess about it. Volvo, is they Indian now? uh I mean there's a lot of things that that you know the Indian Indian Indians make you know small crap products uh they have a lot of technology of course and a lot of uh intellect but what's interesting about this is this comes right on the heels that Modi spent like a whole day talking right in a huge conference how they have all these things in place to now defra the terrorists by doing internal uh not I don't call it stimulus but internal programs to activate uh consumption and and domestic demand this whole plan now I don't know tell me something if that's going to be the case and it somewhat nullifies the impact of terrorists from the United days. Why all of a sudden so fast do we have a deal from India? Like India caved. Why would they cave if they have all this other stuff going on? Or did we cave again? Like, hey, tariffs aren't going to work with them, so you might as well just give in. >> Well, again, it's one of those things. It's like Greenland. We don't know. We have no idea. >> Forget about Greenland. That's not even Oh, we have the Epstein files. That did come out. We saw some Epstein file stuff. >> Yeah, that's good stuff. And some of this stuff in the Epstein files just is aggravating. It's like, you know, there was an email from someone. And first of all, how is there so many files and so many pictures? Where is this stuff come from? Did this guy just have incredible records? What What was the deal? Who has stuff like that? Was it just all the email? >> A lot of his email. So the email accumulates. >> Three million pieces just released. Who has >> six? Who has that kind of stuff? I mean, >> and then also the uh then there's some interview that's been released and then um then there's a bunch of random stuff that says stuff like, "Okay, go ahead and kill him." Just weird, you know, notes that nothing to do with anything. >> Who Who keeps that kind of stuff? >> Well, I had my room here. It's >> John. >> I have a few items. >> If you do if I had a note that I was passing somebody, which I wouldn't do. Yeah. Hey, you know what? Do me a favor. Knock off D'vorak. >> I don't think I'd be holding on to that. >> Well, yeah. Why would you? >> What am I holding on to that for? There's so much. >> No, I No, I re I think some of this stuff's been created by AI to be honest about it. >> That's interesting. Then then you have stuff like, oh, you know, there was uh emails going back and forth from Epstein to somebody about buying a plane. I'm thinking, who cares? Like does that implicate the person they sent out a note? There was an invitation sent to you know an invitation was sent to Andrew. It is not true. Andrew uh you know Hamilton to come to the island. Okay. Did he go? No. So who cares? That's that. You know what I mean? This is stupid. I don't understand. I don't understand what the point of I really don't. But that's me. What do I know? Apple earnings. This I know about Apple reported blowout first quarter earnings on Thursday predicted growth of as much as 16% >> in their current quarter. Yeah. >> They said sales >> because of big big sales of the iPhones. >> Yep. Big sales of iPhones. They said sales could have been even better >> better if the company could just secure the chips to meet the customer's demand. They can't get the chips which is a problem. I mean it's it's it's gone into massive >> they making their own chips. >> Well, they got their their they got their own mass uh main chips, but like some of the chips for um uh things like um NFC, right? And the chips for Bluetooth and uh you know, pick pick all this other stuff. We're not talking about the main processor. They're what is it the M something or other? >> Yeah, whatever it is. M >> Yeah, the M whatever they have. But I'm talking about the other peripheral chips that are in there. There's all sorts of stuff going on. you cell chips, Bluetooth chips, Wi-Fi chips, uh you know, antenna rays, whatever. >> They make those, too. >> There's stuff in there that they don't. >> We know they use chips from all sorts of companies. >> Yeah. Well, I don't see the appeal. >> Well, nonetheless, the fact of the matter is the company reported about a 42.1 billion of net income, which is pretty good. About six billion higher than a year ago period. They saw particularly strong results in China, which is kind of interesting, including Taiwan and Taiwan and Hong Kong. >> Sales in the region 30% >> because they clone that. They clone that product in China. >> Yeah. >> And you can get it for 25 bucks. >> And you got plenty of other really You got the Huawei, you got the um >> and Huawei makes a terrific phone, >> right? Who makes the fold foldable? That's uh that's Samsung. Samsung. Yeah. And then there's also the uh the other one, the other really good one. Uh >> I see it, but I can't say it. Uh They're the first ones that that cloned the or sim made a similar phone to the iPhone. Now they have a car, too. Whatever. Can't remember. >> Car. >> They have a car also. Yeah. Um >> Chinese company. >> Yeah. Chinese phone phones. Uh Xiaomi. >> Oh yes. Uhhuh. I OnePlus, Oppo, Vivo, and Honor. Those are the other ones in China that make Chinese. Yep. Known for uh Yeah. running the Hyper OS and they all have a lot of good things there. So, um they say that, you know, they're constrained. So, that was kind of interesting to say that from Cook. I thought it was was the stock was up a bit, no great moves. Actually, was up more on Monday than it was the two days preceding or two days after their uh earnings. And a final note before we get to the game, uh, Blue Origin, you know, this is the company owned by uh, Amazon/Jff Bezos or Jeff Bezos really. Um, it's going to pause its tourist flights to space for no less than two years to prioritize development of its moonlander and other lunar technologies. This reflects their commitment to the nation's goal of returning to the moon and establishing a permanent sustained lunar presence. What the hell does that mean? Have they ever been to the moon? Have they ever even got a ship into orbit? What have they done? >> They've only done um Well, with Taurus, they've done the low low orbit, right? >> Is that an orbit or just an up and down? >> They up and down. Up and down. >> Yeah. So, what >> they just got to the to the to the edges and then came down. Um it's like a it's like a carnival ride. >> Yeah. A very expensive joy ride. So then um yeah they they they didn't uh I don't think that um obviously like Musk's move obviously what's happening here is nobody wants to do it so therefore let's switch gears and repurpose this somehow but my bigger issue is >> that could be >> what's the sustain there's a lot of the same stuff going on John come on you know that right >> yeah don't look there they do it they they they juggle just enough to make you they distract you so you don't see us all the game, >> right? >> Yeah. Look at there's a there's a bowling ball I'm I'm juggling. Oh, no. Look at there's a bowling pin. Wait a minute. That's different. >> The You're still juggling. >> I'm still wondering what this means by sustained lunar presence. Sustained lunar presence. >> Put a base. A base. >> They're going to put a base there. >> Yeah. >> So that we can go up there and freeze to death. I I know what you do up there. Dig rocks. >> Yeah. So, um, maybe they're going to put data centers on the moon, which is I think the >> Well, they want to put nukes up there so you can have nuclear power. >> Nuclear power, not nuclear weapons. Okay. So, you're going to get nuclear power with a really long extension cord. Is that what you're saying? >> They're going to beam it back with microwaves. >> Oh, come on. Seriously? What do you do? >> That's what you do. >> No, you don't. >> Yeah, that's what you do. >> They haven't done it. How are they going to do it? >> They haven't done it. They're not going to do it. But that's what that's what you do >> right now. What I was thinking data centers on the moon, which is clearly, by the way, the next Pink Floyd album that's coming out. >> If you know, >> good name for an album. >> If you know the, you know, Pink Floyd has a >> Yeah, I get it. Dark Side of the Moon. >> Um, which I used to really like Pink Floyd till I found out that Roger um >> Waters >> Waters is a massive anti-semite. >> But that is a lunatic. Yeah, but that too. That too. >> He's a massive anti-semite, but he's also hates Trump and he's got all these other issues. The guy's he's lost it. >> Yep. Exactly. >> Toxopplasmosis >> is my guess. >> The name for the album or what he has. >> It's what he has. It's got to be. >> Hang on. >> It's my my is a game that we Sorry. Go ahead. >> I'm sorry. My current thesis is that toxopplasmosis is behind most of the stuff going on. >> I don't know what that is, by the way, but it sounds really awful. >> That's the cat. That's that cat brain parasite. >> Oh, really? Do we have to do we have to wear masks now again? >> No. You It's been around forever. This is I'm I'm now convinced that it's responsible for the dark ages. And you know, house cats have never been a thing until after 1920. They only became popular after World War I. And then they became super popular after World War II. And then they became they shouldn't be in the house because they they contain this parasite in their poop and people catch it and and 20% of the US population has it as we speak and a lot of them are these raving lunatics because it creates anger. They think it may be responsible for schizophrenia and other brain damage. I would suggest that Howard Stern may may be a victim of it because he's personality changed when he married the wife who is a cat rescue person that can cap people. It's just one thing after another. It just keeps adding up. >> Well, one person, you know, >> essay coming out. Essay coming out shortly >> on Substack, right? >> Yeah. I already put it in the newsletter, but I can elaborate. >> Here's the point. There is one person at least, if not two, that will not get that because I will never have a cat. Not because of this, because of the cat. I don't want cats. >> You don't like cats? >> I don't like cats. Not that I don't like cats. I'm not having cats. >> In fact, if you don't like cats, you probably don't have toxoplasmosis because this particular parasite makes you like cats. >> Oh, >> it was designed, it was designed as a cycle. So, it would get out into the wild and mice would eat it. And the mice would like cats and then the mice would go and they go try to befriend a cat and get eaten. And that was the whole idea because the mouse, you know, because the cats are lazy. They don't want to go chase a mouse when they when the mouse would come up there. The whole thing is dynamite. It's a great process, but you know that that means you don't want cats in the house. House cats. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right, let's get to the game. This is a game that we play. It's not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. It's not a recommendation of any kind. Nothing on the show should be considered investment advice or a recommendation. If you choose to invest in any of the stocks mentioned, you should know that it may carry risk along with the risk of a loss of principle. You should also seek out professional financial advice for your particular situation. We assume no risk as these are not to be considered recommendations. Horowitz company, myself or John Cedavor may invest in any of the securities mentioned and we'll disclose that on the website under the weekly stock pick section. You can go to dhunplug.com and see all the names we discussed in the segment along with the performance information from the date discussed as well as any additional important disclosures. >> Yeah. So things are looking pretty good generally speaking. >> Yeah, we got one uh back there. Crisper, your crisper thing is falling off a cliff. >> Yeah. Yeah, it's it's fascinating. >> And and Gabella is not Well, it's dead money, but it's not doing much. >> Sky West, you pick that. That's doing good. >> Sky West is down on mine. >> Oh, it was up a little bit uh since I think the last update. >> Well, we'll see what happens next week. >> Yep. Uh but >> I got nothing new. I got nothing new. But you do. >> I got one. We're going to throw up. Uh, not throw up. We'll throw on. [laughter] >> I'm going to throw it up. >> I'm going to puke this one up on you. Um, Ion Q. This is one of the one of the five or six quantums that we follow and the price got pretty reasonable. Uh well, they're all overpriced, but there's some discussion about what they do and the potential for use um in certain applications that may be um being looked at for preventative measures. Let's say for um you know, things like um you we need to get some kind of quantum going for the good guys because the bad guys get the quantum, we got a problem. Would you agree with that? if it ever works if and there's a lot of discussion uh between the administration really trying to fasttrack a lot of this and also the big players in Nvidia and Jen Wong all talking about quantum and it's starting to come so I thought you know what for a long shot we'll throw a quantum name on there >> I I admire your your uh courage [laughter] >> yep so I bought some personally bought some for clients so let's see how it works but All things good. All things good. All right. Until uh until next week. I bid you a do. >> I bid you ad do. >> I see you later. Bye. See you. >> You've been listening in on a conversation with John C. D'vorak and Andrew Horowitz. Hope to be with you again soon. Bye-bye. [music] >> Now, I'm not broke, but badly bent. I'm not down to my last scent cuz I got a dollar, but it's my last dollar bill. Yes, sir. In [music] my pocket there's a debt. All my dough is nearly spent, but I got a dollar and it's my last dollar bill. [music] Oh, I'd love just one more buck. Fortune left me by chance. Now, here's a hint. I feel like a men. You can hardly tell by a glance. I don't care. No millionaire. Can't give me the [music] ice stack cuz I got a dollar. My last dollar bill. [music] This podcast is intended forformational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle and past performance is not indicative of future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of the hosts and the guests and may not necessarily reflect those of Horowits Company Inc. an investment advisor registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Horowits Company is properly registered or is excluded from registration requirements. 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DHUnplugged #789: Crash Test For Dummies
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This episode is sponsored by Interactive Brokers. And Interactive Brokers has key competitive advantages for sophisticated investors just like you. IBKR's margin loan rates, for example, are from just 4.14% to 5.14%. In fact, IBKR was rated one of the lowest margin fees by stockbrokers.com. Compare IBKR's client's low margin borrowing cost to other brokers like Schwab, Erade, Fidelity, and Vanguard, who charge hundreds of basis points above IBKR's low rates. The best informed investors choose Interactive Brokers. Margin is only for experienced investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. Rates are subject to change. Get started today at ibkr.com/compare. member SIPC. >> Hello and welcome to D'vorak Horowitz Unplugged, an hour-long discussion of activity in [music] the financial markets around the world featuring columnist John C. D'vorak and money manager Andrew Horowitz. This conversation [music] is casual and unrehearsed. Let's join John and Andrew now. [music] >> I'm John Cavorak >> and I'm Andrew Horowitz and >> it's the 3rd of February 2026. I got to tell you something. I'm hot. I'm hot under the collar, but cold below the collar. It is freezing here. It's like >> It's about 65 here. >> It's like 30 It was 32 degrees this morning. That's in That's in South Florida. >> Is that from the bomb cyclone? >> It's either the bomb cyclone, the arctic vortex, or the uh There was another thing they had too, wasn't it? An arctic blast. >> Blast. >> One of those. And you know what happens down here that is very important to understand and to know about and be careful of when the temperatures get down below 40. Do you know what that is? >> Uh old people just drop dead in the street. >> Close. Very close. Actually, seriously, very close. Iguana side. It's It's a mass problem. They just fall out of the trees. There's full out of the trees and they just And if the iguanas are down there, >> there's a lot of iguanas. like a lot like to to a point that I can't put any flowering plants in my backyard that may be somewhat tasty to them because they'll strip them down in a day. It's a big problem there. They're also called down here for those in the redneck bill the chicken of the tree. >> People eat them. [laughter] >> And you're allowed to shoot them here. So, >> shoot them. >> You're allowed to shoot them. I'm serious. I'm not kidding. So, uh, they fall out of the trees and they just lay there and you think they're dead, but they're really not. They're like in a in a in a mass dormant hibernation mode of some sort. And what happens is that when they warm up, if they warm up without totally freezing, I mean, if they freeze, they're dead, right? >> Yeah. But if they get like into the 32s and they don't really get fully like the blood doesn't get frozen then and the heart doesn't fully they go down to this deep deep deep deep hydrronation and a lot of people what happens is they take them and they just grab them and they maybe I don't know put them in their car or something to throw them out and all of a sudden they come to life and they [laughter] start scratching everything >> yeah I know the idiosyncrasies of Florida. [laughter] >> Florida man scratched to death by uh hibernating a iguana. [laughter] Well, here we go. We got a lot of really great things to talk about. I mentioned I was cold below the collar but hot above the collar because there's a lot of things that going on that you and I have talked about uh and some things that were kind of a little nutty. But number one, we did have last week the absolute worst day ever for silver >> ever on record. We'll talk about that. And that and that that ties out, by the way, to the same day just so happens that the new Fed chair was named. >> So, >> oh, that's an interesting coincidence. >> Yeah. So, so I kind of did a little research on this um and brought this whole thing full circle to understand really kind of some of the dynamics there. Uh there's a pause on space, which is not the space bar. I'm talking about the space up there with what's going as well. Um, so the markets we have the issue about silver and gold, platinum for that matter too. Uh, Bitcoin plunging. We're in a crypto winter. You've heard that before. So what's cryp what's what's Bitcoin down to? >> It was like it was it's been down to I'll pull it up right now. But it was down to I think 76 and change at the low there. um kind of at about 78. It's been popping up. 76 is kind of a magic number. I think 76 half or 77,000. And the reason for that is that that is a big there is a big piece of Bitcoin owned by Michael Sailor Strategy or Micro Strategy with an average cost overall of about 77,000. So there's a thinking that when it gets to that point, he's going to load up again and start buying. So therefore, those out there are picking it up. Ethereum crashed. You got Tom Lee's Bit Mine uh company down about six billion now on that investment. He was on TV a couple days ago talking about how not a big deal. Not a big deal. The reason is that um it pays about they staked it so it's about a $400 million interest payment on it annually. So they're making that. But oh Tom, uh if you're down six billion, I don't care that you're getting the income from it. You're down 6 billion. And what happens when people want their money? They're going to take a huge loss. So that's going on. Uh we're going to do a deep dive today in January economic results. I thought we would kind of go through that. We haven't done that in a while to really go through the nitty-gritty of what's going on. >> True. Yeah. >> Um and the US dollar is rising from multi-month lows, which is another reason why you probably saw that big move on big convergence of items and things that happened over the last week or so. Uh EM is still powering ahead and Elon Musk did a uh I I guess I'd call it a financial PT Barna move last week with a few things with regard to SpaceX, XAI, Tesla, all that. Doing once again something that's probably not going to be done, but who cares? Nobody Nobody fights, you know. Yeah, it's fine. Say what you want to say. [laughter] >> Yeah, big guy. So, by the way, just to to reel us back to the iguanas, it's called being cold stunned. They're they're in a cold stunned state >> and they just fall out of the trees. >> Oh, they can't hold on. So, they just fall out. They just fall and they're just laying in the in the street. >> Pass out up in the tree and down they come. Huh. >> Yeah. So, they could live in this 40°ree weather for a while, but again, below freezing is is a problem. That would be great because they are a nuisance. That's why they you're allowed to kill these things. and they're everywhere. There there are some areas that you're like, why is why is the grass moving like that and like realize, oh my god, it's all those green iguanas just scurrying around everywhere and they get big and then they turn orange. >> Yeah, they can get pretty big. We had a pet iguana for a while >> and then what do you do with it? You put it outside for it to multiply and populate down here in Florida probably. >> Uh we sent No, we actually literally put it in a box and sent it to Florida. [laughter] open before Christmas, perishable. Very nice. Well, right on schedule. You know, even though we see some cold snaps around the country, the fact of the matter is that polar polar vortex, the Arctic blast, what do you call it? The Arctic, what was it? The Arctic >> bomb cyclone. [laughter] >> The bomb cyclone. Remember when we talked about this and how natural gas was spiking up dramatically and it was spiking on the futures, it was spiking on the spot. Um, this and I said, "What do we say?" We said, you know, just be this is a great lesson to watch, >> not to panic because this kind of thing, especially when it's weather related, will come down almost just as fast as it went up. >> Right? >> Natural gas was down 25% on Monday, down about 28 30% from its recent high. Still about 50% higher than it was before the spike, but there's still a lot of winter out there. and Pakahani Phil what on Monday Groundhog Day uh six more weeks of winter. So not that I m maybe traders look maybe the pucks of honey fill fund will buy natural gas on that. I don't know. >> Yeah, I doubt it. >> Yeah, I doubt it too. But this is right on schedule. You know, it didn't take too long. Could you have made money on it? Probably. uh maybe if you shorted natural gas futures, you know, maybe if you short the natural gas too much work, >> but yeah, this is or maybe buy some options on it for that matter. But a lot of this is priced in the people that know this, the models that they go with, just to let you know. No, it seems easy. It see and we knew it was going to happen, but the models already account for a lot of that volatility inside. >> It's impossible. Yeah. You have to be that you have to be that's a specialist's job. >> Exactly. Exactly. Being in the pits during those periods are probably not stress free. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> All right. Some more about let me talk about some things that are getting me a little hot and you tell me what you think because I I respect your opinion on these things especially when it comes to technology. So this first item Jensen Wong we know him of course the uh the the leader of Nvidia guy >> Mr. Leather jacket. leather jacket fella. Uh he um he said this weekend that the company's proposed hundred billion dollar investment in open AI was never a commitment. Specifically said never a commitment and that the company would consider any funding rounds one at a time. He said it was if it was never a commitment they invite us they invited us to invest up to 100 billion and of up to 100. Hey, John. Uh, if you want, you can give me up to, you know, $100,000. I I don't want I I won't take a dime over. Just $100,000. >> Okay. >> Yeah. They invited us to invest up to hundred billion dollars. And of course, we were we were very happy and honored that they invited us, but we will invest one step at a time. Now, I want you to remember that slug of information and think about all the other things we've been talking about, the circular financing, the vendor financing, the uh daisy chain, as my dad would probably call it. You know, this this everybody's getting a little piece of the action from somebody else and somehow at the end of the day, you're just doing, you know, you're just you're just you're just it's it's financial masturbation. as opposed to >> Yeah. A circle jerk would be a better way. >> Circle jerk. Yeah. So now let's take that point and let's add to the next point which came out I think it was Monday. No, Sunday night. Sunday night Oracle announced that it will do a fundraiser in the form of both equity and debt because they need some more funds to build more data centers. I like the way they put it as a fundraiser, as though it's like a charity. >> Yes. Oracle. Now, let's hearken back to do you recall that Open AI No, that Yeah, the Open AI said they were going to invest up 300 billion into Oracle, shot the stock up to the moon. Remember that whole one? >> Oh, yeah. We watched that very closely and knew it was a it was a fake out. And then Nvidia is funding Open AI with commitments that are not commitments. And we realize that Oracle had too much debt and their free cash flow is a problem for paying that debt service. And there's all sorts of other things. and Oracle stock came way down and everybody started questioning whether or not and how not whether or not how it would be possible for Open AI to fund that far out over the next three three years four years on on revenues that they don't even they're not even close to getting revenues I'm not talking about earnings revenues forget about the fact you got to cut back take off expenses off that how are they going to have capex in those kind of numbers in those in that many years. What they did was they created this very interesting um oasis of finance, something you see in the distance that may or may not be there, but you hope to be there. When you get there, you can only think about all the wonderful palm trees and coconut juice and the nice, you know, hot springs and cold water and the fan the fans by the by the lounge chair, you know, that kind of thing. And if you think about all these things, just these two things in particular together, this whole thing is really in question because if this one didn't commit to that one, how is that one going to commit to that one on money they don't even have? >> I know. It's and it's it's like the same process that they pushed at us only backwards in reverse. >> It's unbelievable. So now instead of everyone getting this, you getting this money and I'll pass it to this guy and he passes it to that guy, he passes it to this guy, then they pass it back to me. Now it's no, I'm going to pull it from this guy and well then they're going to pull it from that guy and it's going to get pulled and pulled and pulled uh the other way and so there's going to be no money in the system. It's pretty funny. There was never anything to begin with. >> No, it was all bull crap. That's the point. And now they'll try to massage No, they got to be careful. They can't, you know, Nvidia can't say we're not doing this because that don't forget Nvidia, >> which is exactly what they said, by the way. >> Right. But Nvidia is giving money to OpenAI. So Open AI can for them to open AI to buy more Nvidia chips. >> Yeah. >> And then OpenAI is giving more, you know, uh, money to Oracle so they can then expand the Open AI and and use their platform. I >> Yeah, open AI is done. >> It's crazy the whole thing. only all all the people watching this say say that that company's over. >> Do you remember when Sam Olman was when he originally came out as a non-owner because it was a charitable SL or not charitable was a nonprofit. >> Yeah. and how Sam Alman was against all the things about profitability and all this and it was going to be you know for the good of people this whole thing right and he wasn't going to take he was taking some like ridiculous salary and he had no ownership >> what happened he was the ultimate altruist >> yeah well they were called what was the name of that group effective altruism or something or something like Quakers. He's a Quaker. >> Well, whatever he is, he we saw the writing on the wall. >> Yeah, really. >> There's money to be made. >> Yeah. Well, look at that. Hello. So, but but you look at him and he is a the ultimate salesman, you know, posing in a highly intellectual engineering suit or managerial or whatever you want to call it, but it's it's really a a shill game here, which is what's going on. That's what's going on, right? >> Shell game. >> Shell shell shell game by the shells. Shilling it. Yes, I agree. Shell game. All right. Uh, a little uh quick side note because I I I learned about this this week and I wanted I think I think you'll probably know about this. I was looking at um a particular type of wine and trying to understand about this wine and found out something about let me see if I can pronounce this correctly, please. Uh, botricus sinera. >> Betritus. >> Betritis sinera. You know what that is? Obviously, it's a it's a fungus causing gray mold on grapes causing >> Yeah. >> Yeah. Causing bunch rot. >> Uh or or what's what's really known in the wine world as the noble rot which concentrates sugars and creates high value dessert wines. cuz I was looking at short turns. >> Yeah. I'm surprised you haven't already been over this. >> I have not. I never >> shocked actually. >> I've never >> It's like a very weak spot. It's one of the greatest products in the world. >> Yeah. I So, I have this dinner coming up and for the the closing uh wine pairing, you know, it's all paired and um I had to find something for the dessert. It was a very heavy uh chocolate kind of uh packaged. Not packaged. >> It's it's a heavy port. >> Yeah. So, port I was going to do. >> Sorry. I would have gone with port. >> I did port the last one. That's why I didn't do it this one. So, I went with the sautturn that would kind of work and I kind of had a look at this >> cuz it actually has turn and chocolate is not my favorite combination. But, but can please continue. >> It's not only chocolate. There's also some fruits in there. So, that's why that's why I thought it would work. >> Um, but yeah, the and I never heard of this. A tokaji. >> Tokai. >> That's what I said. [laughter] A tokai. I am not familiar with these. I'm sorry. This is not part of my wine repertoire. >> Yeah, I guess not. >> This this level of of dessert wine of sweet wine is not. >> You got to get into wait until you get to the ponios. There you go. >> Oh gosh. >> Uh so >> that's the amount of dry grapes that they mix into with the tokai. >> Now is that why sometimes you see on raisins a little bit of like dust or is that something different? >> No, that's yeast probably. >> So they got this gray mold. that sucks out the juice, if you will, and then just leaves all the concentration. Very cool. >> Well, there's more to it than that. For one thing, the betritis adds a fla a very distinct flavor to wine. Very distinct. And that's part of the appeal is that flavor. That flavor, especially when it's high, es and especially if you like it, which is the betritis flavor is generally spoken in those terms. How much betritis does it have? you you the question will be asked and how it's it really has a lot of betritis flavor. People will say that in analyzing the wines and the ones with ex with extremely high betritis taste are the ones that are the most uh cherished by people who like saw turns and and there are they are uh remarkable. Uh, it's always been a go-to for me u in in uh social situations. It it loosens people up. >> Yeah. It loosens them up. >> Yeah. >> Really? Better than a whiskey. >> Oh, yeah. >> Ah, interesting. I want to get into some uh now that we got past that something a little bit always a little something something uh for our listeners. But I want to before we're going to I want to talk about the economic points of interest from January and go through all of them. By the way, the partial shut partial government shutdown this week for whatever reason because in the past we had government shutdowns. We didn't really ever have a uh we didn't skip jobs numbers, but it seems like that's a thing now. We skip the jobs numbers. There may not be jobs Friday because of the uh of the partial the half day government shutdown. >> That's what they're saying. Yeah. >> So, I don't know what that's about. >> I'm not sure what they're up to. >> And and then the other problem is what that does is it taints the employment number. Why I say that is now it was like, well, maybe not all the information is there. Whatever comes out could be good, could be bad. It doesn't matter. and did basically just disregards the entire employment number, which by the way, historically has been one of the most important things for markets. So now we just did a fake news on that and destroyed any kind of uh use for that report for who knows how long. Once again. Once again. >> Yeah, that's a good point. >> Always always doing the same thing. Yep. Let me uh let me for a moment, let's talk about Interactive Brokers. Let me let me um ask you a question folks out there that's listening. Are you ready to take control of your financial future? Meet financial future information. The best stuff that you're going to get something you need to understand called portfolio analyst from Interactive Brokers. The free all-in-one dashboard that lets you consolidate, track, and analyze all your financial accounts in one place. You don't need an IBKR account to use it either. Just connect your accounts and see your complete financial picture, your investments, your performance and allocation, all in one single screen. Plan smarter with IBKR's new tax and retirement planners built around your goals and market assumptions. Get deep portfolio insights with detailed risk assessments and compare performance against more than 300 benchmarks. Plus, manage with confidence thanks to GIP's verified returns. So, you're ready to get started. Sign up for portfolio analyst free for everyone at ibkr.comfreepa. Interactive brokers the best informed investors choose ibkr member sipc John. That's a pretty cool thing because a lot of people are always looking for seriously looking for like uh I don't know how I did. I don't know where my stuff is. I I don't you know that's that's not easy. >> Most people don't have time for it, >> right? This this is really you just you just you just plug your stuff in. You just go in there and you kind of um link your accounts, right? They're all secure. It's all, you know, very carefully encrypted and then it just pops up on a screen for you. It's really cool. Portfolio Analyst at IBKR. Um all right, let's start with the employment numbers is where we left off and let's talk about the January employment numbers that maybe people care about or don't. We had 50,000 new jobs and um the earlier months were revised lower. Somehow the unemployment even though we didn't put anybody on >> terrible numbers. >> They dipped to 4.4% though. >> Yeah. Well, that you know that can be that can be jiggered. >> Yeah, that's the statistical part of it, not the raw numbers. >> You know, you can fool around with that number and make it go up and down, but but this 50,000 number is no good. >> No. and and the earlier months were revised lower. So, we know there's something going on there. >> And there and they were no good to begin with. >> Right. Long-term unemployment didn't change. Labor participation rates um slipped to 62.4. So, that means that there's less people actually available to be working. Uh we know that hourly average earnings rose about.3. They're up about 3.8% over the past year. Uh weekly jobless claims stayed close to last year's level. So, I mean, the employment situation, you know, it is, we've seen it, it's hasn't changed much. Um, there's other things going on. Uh, we saw last week on Wednesday a Fed rate decision. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in the 3.5 to 3.75. I will tell you before my career is over, if there is anything I could wish for, anything I could wish for is to go back to one freaking number instead of this range. I can't take the range. Is it who gets 3.5 and who gets 3.75? Why is there a range? >> There shouldn't be a range. >> That's what it is. I think that started with Bernanki. >> They came up with this range. So, most policy makers agreed the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. Though job gains are slowing, inflation uh remains above target. Two committee members supported a small rate cut. These is um Mirin and Waller, which we know Mirin is an administrative shill and Waller wanted the job as Fed chair. So he was kind of brown-nosing right up to the end there. >> Well, it didn't work. >> No. Uh Powell said, you know, clearly there's a weakening labor market, calls for cutting, a stronger labor market, uh says that rates are in good place. It is no, they don't have any base. They they don't know what's going on. They're just they're just following along what's going on and trying to not in my opinion upset markets. That that's all they're doing right now. They they talk about upside risk to inflation. They talk about downside risk to employment and that's not a big deal for them anymore. But uh they think they're at a good place right now. They did get a stronger financial forecast. The outlook for the economy since the last meeting. Things are heating up a little bit. We see that in GDP productivity. We see it in a lot of numbers. So, you know, our initial claims are are are holding in right above the 200 what 10,000 per week. Not bad. So, they said most of the o overrun in goods, the pricing issues are because of tariffs. But we think tariffs are likely to move through and be a one-time price increase, which there is some truth there. There's a lot of truth there. If we have a 10% price increase, if we have a 50% price increase in a widget this year and it stays that because the tariff, but the 50% stays on, we don't have any further inflation next year, do we? >> Right. >> Right. >> No more inflation, but price sticks still as high as hell. >> Well, people keep, you know, and I don't understand this. They don't they don't emphasize this enough in the media especially that that um inflation is cumulative. >> It's like compound interest, >> right? >> And so you know if it goes up and up and up and up and up and then then the inflation rate goes to zero. It doesn't mean it starts going down. That would be deflation. They don't want that. Whatever you do, you can't have that because then people will just stop buying everything by their nature. Oh, I'll just wait till it gets to zero. >> Right. >> And um and the public at the Lord said, "Well, yeah, he stopped the inflation rate, but the prices are still high." Yeah. Hello. >> I know that. It's ridiculous. It's ridiculous. Yeah. I don't know. So, GDP, federal budget, economic growth remains strong. We know that GP GDP is rising in an annual rate of of annualized 4.4% 4% which is driven by strong spending higher exports reduced import dues imports due to the tariffs we know that the imports coming down um federal deficit for December rose to 145 billion >> for the year for the year year-over-year it's not better >> balance the budget >> yeah uh income this was interesting income and consumer spending this for January personal income and consumer spending rose >> both in October Deber >> that was the last one year over year they were up consumer price index in December was only at.3. Shelter, food, and energy all contributing. When they say all contributing means those were all higher. That's so they don't say that they're higher. This is this is the kind of verbiage that's used to just >> Oh, that's a good good catch. Yeah, you're right. >> This is the kind of verbiage that's used, you know, um to, you know, when >> to bamboozle the public, >> right? There were six guys. Three of them, Johnny, Joe, and and Jack beat the crap out of uh you know, Bobby. So, no, you don't say that. You say, "Yeah, there was a fight and three of the three of the people at Johnny Jo contributed." It softens the whole thing, doesn't it? Contributed. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Contributed to breaking his nose. Um but but it sounds better than blaming, right? If I said it different way, I would say with shelter, food and energy all coming in higher than expected and really causing the inflation rate to bend higher. Oh, what? Versus contributing, you know. >> Yeah, that's what you do. >> Pursu this is the way that we do this to soften everything. Producer prices also increased. Inflation uh slowed in the consumer in in the the producer place compared to 2024. housing. Um, existing home sales rose in December. Uh, number of homes is still low for sale. In other words, there's not a lot of supply on the market right now. And that's a combination of a couple things, right? It's a combination of one. Uh, John, if your house moved up from, I'm just picking a number here, 200,000 to 400,000 over the last number of years, and you want to move, the probability if you want to stay somewhere in the area that you're going to live, you're going to want to buy a house is probably 400,000 or so, right? You may you may back it off, but still, where if a horizontal move is going to be a $400,000 house, you sell your house. >> What's the point? >> What's the point? And if you kind of go and and let's say you go to a $500,000 house, all right, you spent an extra $100,000, right? But now what happens is that you don't have any property tax, excuse me, you don't have any capital gains probably because you got uh available $500,000 of gains that you could offset, right? Um but now you're going to have tax on a $500,000 house versus a $200,000 house when you first bought it. >> Most states have a a portability going Yeah. So that's that's a problem. Um so the so the homes for sale is a product of not just oh everybody you know oh you know we got to get more supply on the market. Yeah. Yeah. In a way you do and that will bring down the price of housing because you'll have an over supply at that point. Hello. But it's not the fact that you know they talk about 7 million houses need to be built. 7 million. We're we're lacking seven million for all the Gen X's and the the the you know all the people that >> all the people that can't afford a house. >> Right. For all the Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Manufacturing industrial production in uh last the last reading was uh up4%. So not that much 2% off of the year. Manufacturing output increased. Mining activity declined which I thought was really interesting. Mining activity declined. I'll say it again. Mining activity decline. Does that make sense to anybody? >> You got you got you got things running through the roof. You got gold, silver, platinum, platinum. You got you got these prices running like crazy and mining. You know what? I I price I don't think I want to find more of the metal that just shot through the roof. No, no, no. I'm not interested. No thanks. How crazy is that? Can you imagine being a fisherman, a commercial fisherman, the price of salmon goes to like 800 a pound. like, you know, I'm not in the mood to fish today. [laughter] The dumbest thing I've ever heard. >> I What? Well, there's got to be some rationale here. What is the point? Are they skeptical? I It It's beyond my understanding. This is beyond my prayer. These kinds of stupid things. the the this just shows everybody some of the things we talk about and pick out in the economic reports how it it it takes it it's we're first of all a big country right it's like being a big business there is so many parts of the business that go into the uh profitability and the outlook and when you have a business that is so large you can't do proper accounting on a monthly basis, let's say, you have to wait. So these numbers, we got to look at more like quarterly numbers and trends. For whatever reason, when I first started in the business, for about 15 years, the economic numbers were extraordinarily important for markets and um we watched them very carefully, still watch them very carefully, but recognize that the markets don't give a crap about most stuff. Well, as you pointed out years ago, it was when when quantitative easing began and they started around with the numbers and the money supply and everything in between. It it made everything irrelevant. >> Exactly. Exactly. Couldn't say it better. Import and export prices rose slightly through the end of the year. Okay. Earnings, let's talk about that. Uh roughly one-third of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 earnings and overall results are still strong. Um 75% of companies have beaten EPS estimates. So that's slightly um when I say slightly below long-term averages, it's like the long-term average like 76. So I don't think it's a big deal. Uh revenue beats remain solid at 65%. companies are reporting about a 9.1% earnings above estimates which is well above the five and 10 year surprise averages. So that's pretty good. Um >> yeah, but that that could be because of creep where you you know the over time people start doing estimates purposefully wrong. >> Well, and then you also have buybacks that are also raising estimates >> and there's buybacks and there's a lot of reasons for these changes. Well, plus you have analysts that usually pull back before the actual results so that you have the lower bar for comp. Don't forget most analysts are working for sellside. That's what you see out there. So, if you have an analyst, if I'm an analyst, John, and I'm dealing with D'vorak, Inc. And we talk, we spend time, you're like, you know, things are good. I think we'll do about uh 8% better than last year. You and I talk about it. I put out the analyst. I'm like, you know, I think they're going to do about 5 and a half% more than anticipated compared to last year. Why? Because I'm probably an owner of your stock or I want people to enjoy the benefits of that stock ownership. And if I come in with like I really think you're going to do a lot more in your sandbagging and I'm going to call it out at 10% and you only come in at eight, then all of a sudden the stock is going to come down. It's a very massaged process. >> Yeah. Yeah. And which means it's bogus >> to a degree. Yeah. Don't forget most most companies that are doing their conference calls, they're sitting there knowing what's happening to the stock every time you say something and people are are giving you commentary in your ear and probably right in front of you on a giant whiteboard uh saying, you know, yay nay. Look at the stock. Say something different. Walk that back. Talk about something else. Move into the next discussion. >> Yeah. It's like Max Headroom movie. [laughter] M Max Max had room. Remember that? He would stutter and stuff. >> Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. He did that pretty good. >> Why did we Why did we have to have a Why was this this in highly intellectual being stutter? What was that about? [laughter] >> Did it make a I don't understand. >> That's a funny I don't know. It was It was just a personality quirk. >> Yeah. It And not only that, why was it almost look like the Well, the right word is it was glitching out. something you talk about a lot, the glitch on No Agenda, which you and Adam Curry get together and talk about uh things, stuff, and all sorts of news items on Thursdays and Sundays each and every week. Uh must by the way, seriously, a must listen. 2:00 must Well, you're also recorded, but you're it's a must listen weekly. >> I don't say that a lot. >> It is a must listen. We we have insight that they don't have any place else. >> I agree. I agree. But it's a glitch. It was a glitch. Um what else do we got here? The S&P is on track for uh what about 11.9% year-over-year earnings growth, marking the fifth straight quarter of double digit earnings growth. That's pretty good. Healthcare se sector shows the largest earnings declines and that happens to be because of what's going on with well an aging population. It's the uh uh payments back from um Medicare and Medicaid and uh it's not as much of you know bad loss um that's going on. It's really the reimbursements. So >> yeah, wait until we see the fraud in California be revealed. >> Ah, it's coming. You know, they say Warren Buffett once very appropriately said that, you know, during the high tide everything's great. During the low tide is when you start seeing all the muck and mire. I'm paraphrasing, right? You know, the broken glass, the condoms, the bottles, >> the mess, >> the mess, you know, and when tide comes down, that's what's happening in the healthcare area. It's all of a sudden, you know, it's not being I don't want to say covered up, that sounds bad, but not being obfiscated uh by the the high tide. You get to see everything that's happening. Tesla got to talk about that sexy no more. Do you know why they're no longer going to be selling the S uh or the X? That's it. They're stopping production entirely on the Model S and the Model X crossover by the end of Q2 2026 to focus on what? Autonomous technology and humanoid robot robots. Autonomous was it? Optimus. Optimus. Yeah, you got the Let him watch some more cartoons. Can we have the Fred Flintstone something? You know, the Optimus Prime that was from, of course, Transformers. >> Yeah. The uh this is very screwy. I mean there no one's these robot there's not going to these robots aren't going to happen. I mean, I' I've already seen one round of these robots back in the day in the 80s when Nolan Bushnell had his little robot that was the talk of the town at the ComX show in the one of the I forgot what year, but 86, I think, or ' 87. And it was like this little robot that would go around and and grab beer. Uh and they had a demo and it was going to be the year and everybody was predicting the year of the robot. Maybe even been before that year of the robot. That was in the 80s. The year of the robot and there there was no year of the robot. There's no year of the robot coming. >> Yep. >> Especially this I mean this elaborate robot that Musk is designing. This That's not even doable, >> right? What's the battery life? >> Well, here's the problem. Here's the problem here. There is is there any I'm sure they speculated and they put something down on paper or on the back of a napkin or something and they got together with Chimath Palo Hapitia and they put something on one piece of paper, right? What's the TAM for either of these? How do we know how many people are actually going to use the not the autonomous driving, but the robo taxis, right? How many people are actually going to buy humanoid robots? Is there really a market for that over a Model X or a Model S sedan? >> Not that I can see. I I have no plans of buying. What am I going to do with it? >> I What you would you have a human robot in the house? >> I don't I don't know what I don't understand. >> What would it do? >> I don't know. But >> is it going to help you cook? >> I won't even have Alexa in the house because I don't want people listening. I don't know what I'm saying, but I'm just not interested. Well, I don't have I'm with you on that, but what's the uh I'd rather go on the air. Uh [laughter] >> I hate when people listen to me. >> I hate it. And so uh I I just don't know who's going to who would buy one of these robots. What is it going to do? The Because you can't do the you can't put the dishes in the dishwasher yourself and you think a robot can? I don't think so. >> I don't know. This is like from him watching the Jetson when Rosie the robot was there or Lost in Space. I I don't know. This is something. It's like, you know, >> clean countertops. I mean, is that what you're going to have it doing? >> I really don't understand. Is folding clothing. I'll do that. Folding clothing. I like that one. Do the wash. >> Just throw them in a Just throw them in a drawer. Do Do clothes actually need to be folded? >> No. No. Whoever made that up is ridiculous. But again, I don't know what the real t the TAM on this is, right? the whole total addressable market on either of these items and how I think I think two things. I think >> is there any research on this? I don't think so. >> I don't I mean they must have I'm sure they've done something. >> No, I I believe there's no way because >> he just he's just overriding and saying we're just doing this. >> That's my opinion. >> How about another side of it? How about the other side of it that the Model X and the Model S are selling like And >> now you're talking, >> right? And you know what? We saw that I think it was in the Netherlands, 88% drop. There was two different countries, three different countries in Europe. I mean, the sales of of of Tesla in Europe are just pukeish. Really bad. So maybe there's something to be said about how they're not really selling and he sees the writing on the wall. Let's close this down. Save oursel. And by the way, let's say we're doing something else. So it doesn't look like we're really worried about the sales here. Those are two major cars in their arsenal. I mean, clearly the other one sell better, but the S is, if I was to have a Tesla ever, it would only be the the S. >> Yeah. The S is the prettiest one. >> Yeah. So again, then he talked about big capex like a $20 billion capex to to build this out and to make a manufacturing facility for building their own chips. So Friday with all this information stock doesn't go down, it goes up. Why? SpaceX looking for an IPO in June. Valuation moved up from about 800 billion supposedly down to 1.5 trillion all of a sudden. Now there's a discussion merging X AI into SpaceX and possibly even uh Tesla into XAI. >> Yeah. Yeah. He likes to do that kind of that kind of deal. >> Not only that, it's >> almost like a reverse merger with your own self. >> It doesn't make sense to put Tesla there. I'll give you if you have to the um >> what made sense with the solar operation he had. >> Well, and and how you rolled Twitter to make it look like you weren't losing money there. The the the shell game on this is unbelievable. The idea that Tesla would be merged in here, anything's possible. But why not say that after you have really horrific earnings, you say you're shutting down the production of two of your properties that are making a lot of money for you, a reasonable amount of money to something that's unknown. You're going to do a $20 billion spend and everybody's like freaking out about it. The stock goes down and you're like, "What can I do to rescue it?" I know. Let's scare the crap out of anybody that's short and was questioning it by saying, "You know what? we may roll this into and take private or take, you know, reverse merger it um merge into uh SpaceX, which everybody's all hot about. You just say that without any real meaningful Listen, he said he's he's done this for years. He said things that have really no actual truth. 420, remember that? Remember the 420? >> Yeah. It was also the the the tube. >> Yeah. >> Uh >> yeah. All that. It was that was the uh hyper hyperloop. >> Yeah. Hyperloop. Uh there's the number of of different things. >> But you know, you say stuff and you don't know who to believe. He's strong enough. Look, you don't want to go against him. He'll sue the crap out of you and he'll win only because he has, I don't know, throw, I don't know, 100 million at it. Who cares, right? At the attorneys. So something to think about. We have a new official, wait for it, we have a Fed chair that has been appointed by President Trump has to go through the congressional hearings and and approval process. Of course, uh Kevin Worsh, Kevin Worsh, my opinion, out of all the >> What is your opinion? >> Out of all the ones that he was going to choose, I like it. >> Now, that means >> you like him the most. >> Yeah. Which means he's probably not going to get in somehow. Uh, I like him because his history is historically, now there's been a while since some of this, but historically he's been a bit of a deficit hound. Uh, he seems to be the least of the psy, the political psy. I thought that the Hasset was just no good. Um, although I would have had so much fun with his collar for years. >> Yeah, you and the collar. >> Oh, it's horrifying. >> That bare feet at the airport. >> Yeah. Yeah. Um [clears throat] the um Rick Reer interesting interesting fellow like him. Imagine a lot of money. Interesting. Um non-academic. [clears throat] Um who was the other one? Uh Waller. Interesting. Eh I don't know. Not sure. Uh going to be also a a political pawn, I think. But I don't think Walsh is. And that's when I think markets got initially kind of spooked. And that's what set off the whole silver um plummet. maybe that they think he's going to be more hawkish. Silver plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78, making it the worst day since 1980. Just at that point, it was down 35% during the day. The worst days plunge ever in history. >> It was the worst decline in in in anything that has ever been seen since 1980 when the famous or infamous Hunt brothers crashed the market or crashed because of Hunt. >> Yeah. Well, that's what I think a lot of people were thinking >> that Worsh was the reason that set it off. >> Well, no. I think they were also thinking that when silver started to go that this was that it was a it was a fake up. Anyway, like the Hunt brothers or somebody something was going on and had to be corrected. >> Uh get out. >> Gold was down 10%. >> Gold saw a drop of 10% in the >> gold makes more sense. >> It was also a record by the way. Oh yeah, that's a pretty big move for a precious metal. >> 12% interest. Bitcoin is now down 25% from its recent level only two weeks ago. So now with all of this markets were a little upset. Now there's some conversation creeping in. We see Elizabeth Warren, a few others saying, you know, no good. No good. Well, it doesn't matter who was picked. No good. Uh, will Trump backpedal on the Kevin Worsh if Worsh is not going to play ball with him? Talk to his supporters in Congress and tell him, "Listen, I appointed him. I want it look like there was uh somebody going in there that's not a political pawn. Don't confirm him if the market's, you know, could act squirly squirly like this." and then we'll put somebody else in because you know they'll have they'll have um approval uh uh uh they'll they'll get worn down. You can't put the process. You put somebody up there. It's a two-eek process. All this goes on, the hearings, the people, you know, the stone throwing that goes on and name calling and all that. And then by, you know, all right, not confirming him. How many times can you do that? Now, there are some people that say, "Look, we are not going to approve anybody until the lawsuit with Powell is resolved. until until also the Supreme Court comes out with a real decision whether or not he could fire him because you know what if we just approve somebody then Trump could just fire him. So lots going on there. Lots going on there. Uh, a couple of things here. We got to talk about uh Apple earnings. Oh, uh, we walked back, by the way, just this week on, uh, let's see, we walked back this, we walked back that. What else are we going to walk back? Walk back Korea. Korea was down five and a half% overnight on on on Monday night. Uh, that was pretty rough. Uh, let's see what else that that market's been skyhigh hot. We also saw, what was the other one we saw? Oh, we saw a Oh. Oh, we have a deal. That's all we have is deals. We have frameworks. We got deals. We don't know what the hell's in any of it. >> You know, it's all bogus. >> We don't We got a deal with India. We're going to immediately reduce the tariffs on India. >> Yeah. Okay. >> So, this is after >> just fabulous Indian products we're bringing in. >> What's really interesting, >> Jaguar? I guess about it. Volvo, is they Indian now? uh I mean there's a lot of things that that you know the Indian Indian Indians make you know small crap products uh they have a lot of technology of course and a lot of uh intellect but what's interesting about this is this comes right on the heels that Modi spent like a whole day talking right in a huge conference how they have all these things in place to now defra the terrorists by doing internal uh not I don't call it stimulus but internal programs to activate uh consumption and and domestic demand this whole plan now I don't know tell me something if that's going to be the case and it somewhat nullifies the impact of terrorists from the United days. Why all of a sudden so fast do we have a deal from India? Like India caved. Why would they cave if they have all this other stuff going on? Or did we cave again? Like, hey, tariffs aren't going to work with them, so you might as well just give in. >> Well, again, it's one of those things. It's like Greenland. We don't know. We have no idea. >> Forget about Greenland. That's not even Oh, we have the Epstein files. That did come out. We saw some Epstein file stuff. >> Yeah, that's good stuff. And some of this stuff in the Epstein files just is aggravating. It's like, you know, there was an email from someone. And first of all, how is there so many files and so many pictures? Where is this stuff come from? Did this guy just have incredible records? What What was the deal? Who has stuff like that? Was it just all the email? >> A lot of his email. So the email accumulates. >> Three million pieces just released. Who has >> six? Who has that kind of stuff? I mean, >> and then also the uh then there's some interview that's been released and then um then there's a bunch of random stuff that says stuff like, "Okay, go ahead and kill him." Just weird, you know, notes that nothing to do with anything. >> Who Who keeps that kind of stuff? >> Well, I had my room here. It's >> John. >> I have a few items. >> If you do if I had a note that I was passing somebody, which I wouldn't do. Yeah. Hey, you know what? Do me a favor. Knock off D'vorak. >> I don't think I'd be holding on to that. >> Well, yeah. Why would you? >> What am I holding on to that for? There's so much. >> No, I No, I re I think some of this stuff's been created by AI to be honest about it. >> That's interesting. Then then you have stuff like, oh, you know, there was uh emails going back and forth from Epstein to somebody about buying a plane. I'm thinking, who cares? Like does that implicate the person they sent out a note? There was an invitation sent to you know an invitation was sent to Andrew. It is not true. Andrew uh you know Hamilton to come to the island. Okay. Did he go? No. So who cares? That's that. You know what I mean? This is stupid. I don't understand. I don't understand what the point of I really don't. But that's me. What do I know? Apple earnings. This I know about Apple reported blowout first quarter earnings on Thursday predicted growth of as much as 16% >> in their current quarter. Yeah. >> They said sales >> because of big big sales of the iPhones. >> Yep. Big sales of iPhones. They said sales could have been even better >> better if the company could just secure the chips to meet the customer's demand. They can't get the chips which is a problem. I mean it's it's it's gone into massive >> they making their own chips. >> Well, they got their their they got their own mass uh main chips, but like some of the chips for um uh things like um NFC, right? And the chips for Bluetooth and uh you know, pick pick all this other stuff. We're not talking about the main processor. They're what is it the M something or other? >> Yeah, whatever it is. M >> Yeah, the M whatever they have. But I'm talking about the other peripheral chips that are in there. There's all sorts of stuff going on. you cell chips, Bluetooth chips, Wi-Fi chips, uh you know, antenna rays, whatever. >> They make those, too. >> There's stuff in there that they don't. >> We know they use chips from all sorts of companies. >> Yeah. Well, I don't see the appeal. >> Well, nonetheless, the fact of the matter is the company reported about a 42.1 billion of net income, which is pretty good. About six billion higher than a year ago period. They saw particularly strong results in China, which is kind of interesting, including Taiwan and Taiwan and Hong Kong. >> Sales in the region 30% >> because they clone that. They clone that product in China. >> Yeah. >> And you can get it for 25 bucks. >> And you got plenty of other really You got the Huawei, you got the um >> and Huawei makes a terrific phone, >> right? Who makes the fold foldable? That's uh that's Samsung. Samsung. Yeah. And then there's also the uh the other one, the other really good one. Uh >> I see it, but I can't say it. Uh They're the first ones that that cloned the or sim made a similar phone to the iPhone. Now they have a car, too. Whatever. Can't remember. >> Car. >> They have a car also. Yeah. Um >> Chinese company. >> Yeah. Chinese phone phones. Uh Xiaomi. >> Oh yes. Uhhuh. I OnePlus, Oppo, Vivo, and Honor. Those are the other ones in China that make Chinese. Yep. Known for uh Yeah. running the Hyper OS and they all have a lot of good things there. So, um they say that, you know, they're constrained. So, that was kind of interesting to say that from Cook. I thought it was was the stock was up a bit, no great moves. Actually, was up more on Monday than it was the two days preceding or two days after their uh earnings. And a final note before we get to the game, uh, Blue Origin, you know, this is the company owned by uh, Amazon/Jff Bezos or Jeff Bezos really. Um, it's going to pause its tourist flights to space for no less than two years to prioritize development of its moonlander and other lunar technologies. This reflects their commitment to the nation's goal of returning to the moon and establishing a permanent sustained lunar presence. What the hell does that mean? Have they ever been to the moon? Have they ever even got a ship into orbit? What have they done? >> They've only done um Well, with Taurus, they've done the low low orbit, right? >> Is that an orbit or just an up and down? >> They up and down. Up and down. >> Yeah. So, what >> they just got to the to the to the edges and then came down. Um it's like a it's like a carnival ride. >> Yeah. A very expensive joy ride. So then um yeah they they they didn't uh I don't think that um obviously like Musk's move obviously what's happening here is nobody wants to do it so therefore let's switch gears and repurpose this somehow but my bigger issue is >> that could be >> what's the sustain there's a lot of the same stuff going on John come on you know that right >> yeah don't look there they do it they they they juggle just enough to make you they distract you so you don't see us all the game, >> right? >> Yeah. Look at there's a there's a bowling ball I'm I'm juggling. Oh, no. Look at there's a bowling pin. Wait a minute. That's different. >> The You're still juggling. >> I'm still wondering what this means by sustained lunar presence. Sustained lunar presence. >> Put a base. A base. >> They're going to put a base there. >> Yeah. >> So that we can go up there and freeze to death. I I know what you do up there. Dig rocks. >> Yeah. So, um, maybe they're going to put data centers on the moon, which is I think the >> Well, they want to put nukes up there so you can have nuclear power. >> Nuclear power, not nuclear weapons. Okay. So, you're going to get nuclear power with a really long extension cord. Is that what you're saying? >> They're going to beam it back with microwaves. >> Oh, come on. Seriously? What do you do? >> That's what you do. >> No, you don't. >> Yeah, that's what you do. >> They haven't done it. How are they going to do it? >> They haven't done it. They're not going to do it. But that's what that's what you do >> right now. What I was thinking data centers on the moon, which is clearly, by the way, the next Pink Floyd album that's coming out. >> If you know, >> good name for an album. >> If you know the, you know, Pink Floyd has a >> Yeah, I get it. Dark Side of the Moon. >> Um, which I used to really like Pink Floyd till I found out that Roger um >> Waters >> Waters is a massive anti-semite. >> But that is a lunatic. Yeah, but that too. That too. >> He's a massive anti-semite, but he's also hates Trump and he's got all these other issues. The guy's he's lost it. >> Yep. Exactly. >> Toxopplasmosis >> is my guess. >> The name for the album or what he has. >> It's what he has. It's got to be. >> Hang on. >> It's my my is a game that we Sorry. Go ahead. >> I'm sorry. My current thesis is that toxopplasmosis is behind most of the stuff going on. >> I don't know what that is, by the way, but it sounds really awful. >> That's the cat. That's that cat brain parasite. >> Oh, really? Do we have to do we have to wear masks now again? >> No. You It's been around forever. This is I'm I'm now convinced that it's responsible for the dark ages. And you know, house cats have never been a thing until after 1920. They only became popular after World War I. And then they became super popular after World War II. And then they became they shouldn't be in the house because they they contain this parasite in their poop and people catch it and and 20% of the US population has it as we speak and a lot of them are these raving lunatics because it creates anger. They think it may be responsible for schizophrenia and other brain damage. I would suggest that Howard Stern may may be a victim of it because he's personality changed when he married the wife who is a cat rescue person that can cap people. It's just one thing after another. It just keeps adding up. >> Well, one person, you know, >> essay coming out. Essay coming out shortly >> on Substack, right? >> Yeah. I already put it in the newsletter, but I can elaborate. >> Here's the point. There is one person at least, if not two, that will not get that because I will never have a cat. Not because of this, because of the cat. I don't want cats. >> You don't like cats? >> I don't like cats. Not that I don't like cats. I'm not having cats. >> In fact, if you don't like cats, you probably don't have toxoplasmosis because this particular parasite makes you like cats. >> Oh, >> it was designed, it was designed as a cycle. So, it would get out into the wild and mice would eat it. And the mice would like cats and then the mice would go and they go try to befriend a cat and get eaten. And that was the whole idea because the mouse, you know, because the cats are lazy. They don't want to go chase a mouse when they when the mouse would come up there. The whole thing is dynamite. It's a great process, but you know that that means you don't want cats in the house. House cats. >> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. All right, let's get to the game. This is a game that we play. It's not a solicitation to buy or sell any security. It's not a recommendation of any kind. Nothing on the show should be considered investment advice or a recommendation. If you choose to invest in any of the stocks mentioned, you should know that it may carry risk along with the risk of a loss of principle. You should also seek out professional financial advice for your particular situation. We assume no risk as these are not to be considered recommendations. Horowitz company, myself or John Cedavor may invest in any of the securities mentioned and we'll disclose that on the website under the weekly stock pick section. You can go to dhunplug.com and see all the names we discussed in the segment along with the performance information from the date discussed as well as any additional important disclosures. >> Yeah. So things are looking pretty good generally speaking. >> Yeah, we got one uh back there. Crisper, your crisper thing is falling off a cliff. >> Yeah. Yeah, it's it's fascinating. >> And and Gabella is not Well, it's dead money, but it's not doing much. >> Sky West, you pick that. That's doing good. >> Sky West is down on mine. >> Oh, it was up a little bit uh since I think the last update. >> Well, we'll see what happens next week. >> Yep. Uh but >> I got nothing new. I got nothing new. But you do. >> I got one. We're going to throw up. Uh, not throw up. We'll throw on. [laughter] >> I'm going to throw it up. >> I'm going to puke this one up on you. Um, Ion Q. This is one of the one of the five or six quantums that we follow and the price got pretty reasonable. Uh well, they're all overpriced, but there's some discussion about what they do and the potential for use um in certain applications that may be um being looked at for preventative measures. Let's say for um you know, things like um you we need to get some kind of quantum going for the good guys because the bad guys get the quantum, we got a problem. Would you agree with that? if it ever works if and there's a lot of discussion uh between the administration really trying to fasttrack a lot of this and also the big players in Nvidia and Jen Wong all talking about quantum and it's starting to come so I thought you know what for a long shot we'll throw a quantum name on there >> I I admire your your uh courage [laughter] >> yep so I bought some personally bought some for clients so let's see how it works but All things good. All things good. All right. Until uh until next week. I bid you a do. >> I bid you ad do. >> I see you later. Bye. See you. >> You've been listening in on a conversation with John C. D'vorak and Andrew Horowitz. Hope to be with you again soon. Bye-bye. [music] >> Now, I'm not broke, but badly bent. I'm not down to my last scent cuz I got a dollar, but it's my last dollar bill. Yes, sir. In [music] my pocket there's a debt. All my dough is nearly spent, but I got a dollar and it's my last dollar bill. [music] Oh, I'd love just one more buck. Fortune left me by chance. Now, here's a hint. I feel like a men. You can hardly tell by a glance. I don't care. No millionaire. Can't give me the [music] ice stack cuz I got a dollar. My last dollar bill. [music] This podcast is intended forformational purposes only and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle and past performance is not indicative of future results. The views and opinions expressed are those of the hosts and the guests and may not necessarily reflect those of Horowits Company Inc. an investment advisor registered with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration with the SEC does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Horowits Company is properly registered or is excluded from registration requirements. 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