Ed Dowd: The Economic Shift Has Started — Housing and Credit Cracks First

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Nothing in this program should be considered investment advice. It is for educational purposes only. Please hit pause and read this disclaimer in full. There's a lot going on that makes no sense to me. So then you have to ask yourself, are they stupid or are they, you know, controlled? And this is a purposeful detonation of the West to bring in some crisis that can be managed through, you know, central bank digital currency, UBI, one world order, whatever you want to call it. You [music] know, when you have decisions made that are that stupid that, you know, armchart analysts like you and [music] I can figure this out in like two seconds, there's a plan. I think >> in a world where Wall Street insiders and Washington cronies are rigging the game by printing trillions of fake money, running dark pools out of sight of the average investor, inflating bubbles, and priming the economy for the mother of all crashes. One man has been exposing the fraud with razor sharp data and that's Ed Dow powerhouse analyst who spent a decade at Black Rockck as a portfolio manager skyrocketing their growth equity fund from 2 billion well to a staggering 14 billion. He is now the founding partner of finance technologies spelled ph h i n a n ce technologies a macro alternative investment firm that's all about spotting the big picture risks and opportunities eds authored the eyeopening book cause unknown diving into the data on demographic shifts and their massive economic fallout from the co and the co shots of course he and I um got to know each other during that era and he's here to break down the markets the scams the reckoning ahead we got to talk about the big AI bubble. Welcome to FinanceU. I'm your host, Chris Martinson. Ed, thanks for being here. >> Thanks, Chris. Good to see you again. >> I I want to start with this with this AI bubble. I mean, even the Wall Street Journal has this really complicated like flowchart where they're trying to explain all the circularity of the funding. Um, and it just reminds me of uh I I think it got encapsulated in the last few days with Sam Alman on a podcast is asked about 13 billion in revenue against 1.4 trillion of capital spending commitments. And he whiffed on it and just said, "Well, then sell your shares," which is not a good answer for a CEO. And then the next day went further and said, "Maybe the taxpayers should backs stop the uh borrowings we want to do." What are your thoughts there? >> Well, you know, yeah, exactly. five or six days ago, he goes on a podcast and declares uh that that the the revenue figure is low, they're making more money, and if you're so scared about us making money, short our theoretical shares that we haven't issued yet, which made no sense. He's talking about shorting a a private company, which you can't do. So, you know, that and then he was very arrogant and talked about how this is not a problem. And then five days later, he's asking for a government back stop, which is effectively a bailout. Let's just be honest. I'd never seen a bailout before a crisis occurs. So this this this is the most ridiculous thing I've ever seen. >> Well, it it sounds like the oldest of all things. It's a bubble, right? And a bubble exists when asset prices rise beyond what incomes can sustain. So he's here talking about, oh, we're growing revenue really quickly, but he's using chips that that basically have a three-year depreciable cycle in the real world, but I know they put them for six years on the books. But still, there's no way by the time they get into their next capital chip replacement cycle, they're already behind. They're just going to keep acrruing losses that will just pile into the future until they someday get recognized. Isn't that kind of how that works? >> Yeah, that's basically how it works. And and and look, right now, their revenue uh is coming from uh subsidized subscribers. So, people are paying I think 19 a month for chat VT. It's clearly not enough to cover all the expenses because if you, you know, god forbid they tried to raise those those prices, people would, you know, just drop the subscription. And corporate America has done AI pilots and the studies are coming through from Yale and MIT that uh they're seeing no benefit. So the the corporations aren't going to be doing big giant uh licensing deals just yet. So there's this uh gap of revenue to investment that isn't going to come to fruition. It's classic. It's just like the.com bubble and the railroad bubble. There's a lot of infrastructure being built. A lot of uh speculation on hype and overbuilding and uh a lot of that investment is going to, you know, go go go the way the dodo bird go to zero. And it's not necessarily a bad thing, but the only problem with this AI bubble is unlike the railroad, you had infrastructure after the bubble burst that then, you know, produced economic windfalls down the road. The.com bubble produced dark fiber that eventually was lit and produced uh the ability of Apple to, you know, sell a smartphone, Google, uh Facebook, all these companies, web 2.0 companies that rose from the ashes and Amazon benefited as well. I I don't the problem with this bubble is this this technology you know it's it depreciates to zero and you know I don't know m maybe there's some benefit but uh it's going to be I think a lot of this money is going to be torched and never really be useful. >> Well I mean at the end of the day what do you have you have data centers with some very massive compute power in them and then you've got these models that basically exist in in you know in resident memory. Um, so they need power. They need to be on 24/7, 365. There's no like 5 minutes out for these things. I think I think you have to reset the data center when that happens. So, what do we really have at the end of the day with AI? What what what do we got? >> Uh, we got a we got a uh a souped-up search engine at the moment. Um, that you know, look, there's too I'm not saying AI isn't a real thing. I'm just saying it's not ready for prime time. And what we got is a, you know, souped-up search model with a 25% hallucination error rate. And when I first when I first got on AI, uh, I use Grock. I was impressed. But then over time, as I became familiar with it, I started to realize it wasn't as accurate as I thought. So now after abandoning Google, I now have to do an AI. I do I ask a question in AI and then you know depend sometimes they're simple questions but if they're more complicated then I have to go to Google and verify to make sure that the facts that AI is spinning me is correct so it actually takes more time now it's and and and and you know they're finding the same thing with code they thought they could write code with AI but now they're finally you have to go back and fix it and the end the whole thing becomes a timewasting endeavor for serious serious uh supposed savings Yeah. So, I I've had the same experience, Ed. Um I also like to use Grock. I use Grock Heavy. Um and if it's an area I know something a lot about, like let's say um uh these these magic holy shot injuries, right? It's just not even remotely in the same camp as what I know to be true. And I've caught it making stuff up, citing studies that don't actually exist. Um you know, but basically he huing to consensus. And of course, I don't need a consensus um function in my life. I'm trying to figure out what's true and the consensus is not true right now in most most areas. So So that's what that's been my problem with it so far. >> Well, let's think about Wall Street. Wall Street, you know, I come you're you're you're a finance guy. We're all about, you know, trading against consensus if we find something that makes the consensus theory false. And that's that's how people have made fortunes and great investments is bucking consensus. So AI if AI is just nothing more than consensus there is an asymmetric opportunity to arb that you know going forward. So there will be uh I think there's going to be a need for human research that's never going to change because AI is just basically current conventional wisdom which is not not always right and sometimes very wrong and uh you know so you know everyone says AI is going to you know get rid of human uh analysis. I I I actually think it's going to make it more valuable over time once people realize AI is wrong a lot. Well, some of the most valuable human analysis in times past has been McKenzie consultants. And I know that some irony that that McKenzie burned through a hundred billion tokens or something like that. Uh they are the the number one powerhouse user of uh chat GPT. Uh yeah. So, so here we go. McKin McKenzie and the consultants that whole industry was built upon basically ratifying a decision the CEO has already made to give them cover. uh that's how that's most of most of their money is made uh coming up and and reverse engineering uh the CEO's decision and say look the consultant said it was okay. So if it goes wrong it was the consultant's fault. Today's markets are more volatile than ever with ongoing economic [music] and geopolitical uncertainty. Navigating such environments requires thoughtful adaptive strategies not a one-sizefits-all [music] approach. At Peak Financial Investing, our registered investment advisory firm connects clients with experienced [music] wealth managers who focus on active portfolio management. These professionals use evidence-based strategies designed to respond to changing conditions, not outdated formulas, but customized approaches grounded in [music] research, discipline, and risk awareness. We believe in open, informed conversations, [music] including discussing tools like precious metals and diversification as part of a [music] broader financial strategy. Every investor's situation is unique, and our advisers tailor their guidance accordingly. Visit peakfinancialinvesting.com [music] today to schedule your free consultation and explore [music] how proactive management can support your financial goals. I'm Dr. Dr. [music] Chris Martinson, proud to work with Peak Financial Investing and my support reflects my professional views. I encourage you to take control of your financial future [music] by making informed decisions. How do you see the the the bubble in AI, if we can call it a bubble? I mean, it's it's comprehensive, right? You got Nvidia and its $5 trillion so-called market capitalization around that. You got your open AIs, you've got um the data center providers. There's there's a lot of companies in this. Where do you see this um the detonation happening? >> Well, so let's look at the stock market. I mean, the the current stock market uh indices have been floated the last several months by AI. Seven stocks are are producing most of the returns. So, the asset management world, you know, if you're if you're an asset manager and you're a portfolio manager, you have to chase, you know, it's it's harder and harder to beat your benchmark. So, you you crowd ever more of your uh money into those stocks. Hedge funds have to do the same thing. So it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy until it isn't. And so Nvidia is a $5 trillion market cap I believe at the moment. It's more it's it's it's it's larger market capitalization than the whole Nikk index. So you have to ask yourself stepping back what is a semiconductor company at the end of the day? It's a cyclical company that produces uh chips that then uh depreciate fast because there's always new iterations of the chips and they're at at at their base level a commodity. So 40,000 GPUs just when you step back from the from the the mania are ultimately a commodity at some point. So there'll be more competition. There already is the uh the AI company's already talking about building their own chips. So you know $40,000 GPUs aren't sustainable. So Nvidia number one is not going to be at a $5 trillion market cap two three years from now. It's be a lot lower. So that there you go on just Nvidia alone. Uh the the the uh the revenue model for OpenAI which is a user of Nvidia chips doesn't seem to be anytime going to make an ROI on the current situation. The power consumption, the chip prices. So they're not going to make an ROI. There's no there's no way. Someone did a calculation. And I saw it that the the most successful AI or the most successful subscription model is is Office 360, right? That's 96 billion in in annual revenue. So what you what so for open AI and the AI ecosystem to to make money given the current projected investments they need to get a 10% ROI they're going to need something like 900 billion in subscription revenue 10 times bigger than Microsoft's the most successful product ever and then in addition the the hyperscalers are going to need another trillion in in revenue uh at 25% margin so the whole thing doesn't work ma the math isn't mathing um so One of a few things has to happen. Prices have to come down. Compete power prices have to come down. And you know, one of the big things about DeepSeek that people kind of, you know, forgot about that came out, I think, in first quarter of uh this year. They have to figure out a way to do it for like a fraction of cost of compute power. That's what is going to happen. So, it seems to me that the US has decided in this bubble to chase capex rather than efficiency. And that's where it's going to end up going. I mean, we're going to be able to do AI much cheaper at some point in the future. >> Well, China's obviously up to its eyeballs in this obviously with the deepseek, but also they're pushing hard. From what I can gather, they seem to be pursuing a more pragmatic approach, which is how can we wrap this into our manufacturing processes, which I think there's probably some legit business case there. We'll see how it shakes out. But AI is fundamentally a story of electricity. And China produces two and a half times as much electricity as the United States and is already putting in nuclear more dams and all kinds of stuff. So if this story is a foot race that's uh going to be delimited in some way by your access to electricity, I think China's already won the race. >> Uh uh we we just uh launched a China report uh that we're selling to institutions. It's not cheap. So, you know, if you're a retail investor, don't don't bother looking at the price. But it it's a very comprehensive deep dive into China and the challenges facing China. And you are correct. They overbuilt to the such to such an extent that their internal and they have a demographic bomb going off. They have decades worth of real estate investment and they have uh overbuilt all manners of industrial and you know power infrastructure. So they have the power to absorb for for AI should it be there because the the demographics are going the wrong way. Having said that, China is facing you know an ex existential uh crisis and their internal consumption and demand is is plummeting due to demographics. So that's why they need to export more and that's why we're having trade wars right now. They unfortunately so so again I love when people say they're you know they plan for hundred years and they're so smart. Well, if they were so smart, they wouldn't have built 20 years worth of housing inventory, which is going to torch their internal industrial demand. So, what do you do with that internal industrial capacity? You export that to keep the the engines of growth going. So, that's what we're we're facing a deflationary uh bomb from China. And that's why we have tariffs. That's why every nation in the world should be concerned. China is in existential crisis due to their their overbuild and their malinvestment. But you are right. They have the power infrastructure to absorb AI. We don't. They do. >> So I'm wondering what do you think about this idea? I I have this idea that occurs to me from every so often where I know that we have this fastab 56 which allows the government to hide any spending it doesn't want people to know about as long as it's in the interest of national security, right? Um, and we know that some uh who was it that made it most completely? I think it was the A secretary, but anyway, we've had these these it was interior secretary. That's right. Um, making these ideas that that you know AI is a is an existential threat. There's this digital canyon. Either we get there first or China gets there first and whoever gets there first dominates the other forever. Do you think there's any credence to the idea that there um that these mysteriously robust earnings and revenues being supported by the top seven have some already have some government money wrapped in there? >> Well, there if you look at what's going on with their free cash flow, it's going the wrong way. So, I don't they may be getting some money but not enough to cover what's going on. If you look underneath the hood, free cash flow is going lower. Free cash flow is ultimately, you know, what we look at in investments. earnings can be manufactured for a period of time but and the same thing happened in the docom bubble that earnings were manufactured through accounting uh gimmicks there and and and you know vendor financing but there was there was a period when I realized Nortell uh Nortell's days were over they reported record revenues record earnings and if you looked at the free cash flow was zero so we're now hitting free cash flow problems because you when you're investing this amount of money uh and and capital it sucks it sucks up the cash and this is what's going on. I mean the the expense the the the amount of money they're investing is not return not returning uh not there's no return on investment so the cash flows are going lower and that ultimately will will curb all this and if you look at Oracle's CDS they're trying to issue a bunch of debt to fund uh data centers the CDS I mean it's it's it's still relatively low but it's going the wrong direction their credit default swaps are rising and that's that's an indication that the the debt market's going to take so much before of a demand of return. And we're we're getting closer to that point. And I I really think what the the big message that might have been lost in in the last 24-hour period from Sam Alman and his CFO asking for a government back stop and Nvidia at the same time saying China has already won, which is clearly a ploy to get Trump to give them money. They just admitted that the financing has gotten tighter and there's a demand issue, a revenue issue. So the they just admitted the fundamental degradation without really saying it has arrived. So if I was a large and I just put out a post on this on on X. If I was still a large cap growth manager at Black Rockck, you know, I' I'd be up to my eyeballs in these AI stocks waiting for the market to tell me want to get out. Well, I just got I just got a signal from the the two big players that there's fundamental degradation. And there's financing issues behind the scenes and I would be putting you know the stock both you know I have coreweave and biodan today open ai is now public I would be putting shares on the desk to at least get underway my benchmark because they just signal to me that the end is near >> and speaking of the end is near signs uh you mentioned earlier I think before we started recording that uh a few Hindenburg omens had been spotted. What is a Hindenburg omen for people listening? And and um how do they get triggered? Basically, it's a day where the market is green, but uh there's a certain percent of issues hitting new 52- week lows and and it's it it what it what it's what it denotes is that the the the indices look fine because they're they're green and they're rising, but underneath the hood, there's a lot of the market that's, you know, rolling over. And so, the market is being carried by fewer and fewer stocks. And you know, if you if you're if you're into physics and and laws of nature, that doesn't last that long. You know, gravity eventually takes hold. >> Well, then the market structure under that is is extra rotten or thin, right? There's So, when we had the housing bust, sure, you know, we lost some mortgage insurers and mortgage companies and some home builders and all that, but everything else was kind of okayish under that. So, there was sort of a bed to capture that. What are we looking at right now? We're seeing um October had the largest uh Challenger and great uh layoff announcement since 2003. We're seeing um Chipotle say earnings are down. We're seeing Door Dash saying uhoh, they they just had a big hiccup. We're seeing um lots and lots of signs that the consumer has finally tapped out at this point in time, which is normal. Recessions happen, but that's all being sort of covered up because the big seven, the big five, whatever keep going up. >> Yeah. for the time being and that won't last. This always ends. The other problem we have is and I've been calling us since the beginning of the year is the housing recession coming and that's that's definitely coming. All our indicators are rolling over. The marginal uh support to the housing market was the 20 million people we dropped into the country over the prior three three to four years. >> They supported rents and rents feed into home prices and that's going the wrong way. New tenant rents are dropping. The illegal immigration flow has been stopped. Deportations aren't that many. It has been mostly se self deportations. But we got a warning sign that my thesis on illegal immigration really kind of propping up the economy in 23 and 24 was correct. We saw three events happen pretty quickly. We sawricolor auto which is a a subprime lender mostly to illegal immigrants. That went just bankrupt happened fast. First Gr which is a after aftermarkets auto parts dealer uh they obviously were you know they couldn't hold together their fraud and their their scheming uh because the incremental demand disappeared from the illegal immigrants and then Primal Land another subcrime auto uh lender went bankrupt. So this is and and I'm hearing anecdotally that people in the south were uh you know they were they were kind of saying my thesis of immigration was kind of stupid. Now they're saying no you were right. Uh we're seeing uh things roll over quite quickly in the housing market especially closer to the border. >> I think you were exactly right and it it had was it I wasn't skeptical of it but it just I had to think on it for a minute. I was like, hm, I never thought about that mass wave of 20 million people flooding in, being given all kinds of support. But I was shocked to find in the case of Primalin that they were lending to people without social security numbers or any credit history. Um, that's how crazy it had gotten. I I didn't realize we'd gotten that far. >> Correct. And I'm sure we're going to find that out also in the housing market. There were there probably some homes bought by illegals with no credit, nothing. Um, you got to remember that, you know, when you bring 20 million people in, I mean, we we it's a lot of people and it's and it happens super fast and they were all they were given all sorts of government goodies and there was an ecosystem around this illegal uh logistical willful operation done by the government and we were running 8% deficits. So we still don't have a handle on how much of our treasure was given to these people that then they turned around and put back into the economy in the form of grocery spending, goods spending. You know, if you came from Guatemala and you came and you were given uh you know um a social security number and some handouts and some SNAP benefits and some rental income, uh any money you got, you immediately spent because you never had money in your life. So the multiplier effect on illegal immigrant is much higher than Joe's six-pack and you know even with all that juice and we've we've estimated you know between what the government agencies get directly and the and what was washed through the NOS's which is also we know about the NOS's that's just a washing mechanism for fraud um we we we've estimated anywhere from 500 billion to one and a half trillion was was pumped into the economy during the Biden administration and that went straight into the you know into the corporate corporations profits and and and and pockets. And if you look at look if you look at uh consumer uh facing corporations, a lot of them are down 30 40% this year. That these stocks are not doing well. underneath the AI euphoria, the rest of the stock market is uh slowly rolling over and homebuilders are rolling over, regional banks rolling over, consumerf facing goods companies are down on the year quite a bit and we're just waiting for the uh masses to figure out when they look at their 401k statements in uh you know February, March and April of next year, they'll be quite shocked and that's when the real selling begins because that's how that works. people, you know, people buy high and sell low. That's just the way that the psychology works. >> Yeah. Yeah. Unfortunately, I mean, that's why I think we both do what we do. I'd like more people to avoid that if possible. But here's the definition of a bubble. By definition, more than half of the people can't get out of it. Um, it's just the nature of the beast, right? It's there's there's not much you can do about that, right? So, so the people who do do there are people who do fine during bubbles, right? people during the South Sea bubble, somebody backed up their cart and took levers out of the national bank in France uh in exchange for their South Sea shares or whatever, right? The some people do okay, but the majority get burnt. That's just the nature of of the beast. >> Yeah. The the bubble the bubble grows on um uh all bubbles are created via credit. people borrowed uh margin up and then when it unwinds it happens so fast that they're that they you know they either they they are overlevered they get margin called out lose all their profits we're seeing that in Bitcoin uh right now um and then uh the other people psychologically a lot of them binary at the tops they don't want to sell when it's down a little bit because they think the bubble hasn't ended and then uh they watch it you know I've know I know people who've you know rode.com stocks down 90% and finally gave up at the lows. That's another psychological pitting. But uh the problem with the bubble is most people buy at the top. By the time it the general public is aware of the situation, it is a bubble and it's the end because the insiders are selling to the uh to the retail investors. >> Well, there's this other psychological dynamic which is mystifies me. People get really sloppy towards the end. So, there's that awesome email I think it was with um uh First Brands where they're like, "Hey, do these uh collateral receivables. Did they actually exist?" They're like, "No." Right. And then we also saw at the top of this, we saw Black Rockck uh get scammed for 500 million in a telecom thing. Uh again, failing to do some pretty basic due diligence. due diligence goes away the dodo bird because uh at the in a bubble it's not so much let's let's let's cross our tees and dot our eyes it's can I get access to the deal so people are scrambling and and you know uh you know you you to get to get a seat at the table to get access to the deal you have to like oversize your ask. So if you really want a h 100red million, you have to ask for 300 million and then maybe you get the like it becomes a feeding frenzy and due diligence goes out out the window. And look, I I thought it was ridiculous when I was hearing last year, this is like 12, 18 months ago, that private equity was financing a lot of these data center deals with Nvidia chips as collateral. And I said to myself, you're using uh rapidly depreciating chips as collateral. That makes zero a commodity. You're using a commodity product as collateral. It's it was insanity. Yeah. Well, they don't always ring a bell, but sometimes they give you lots of little little scratching noises uh to look at. I mean, this is it's obviously a huge thing, but how did we get here? So, I I I'm curious just to know like how we got here because October 2023, stocks are rolling over. They're tripping all kinds of of of momentum and technical indicators. And all of a sudden, middle of the night, I kid you not, November 1st, futures just goes the other way. And we've been this way ever since. And all these financial indicators tell me there's a huge blob of money out there. And it's not just us, right? The German DAX is doing this. We're seeing this in the Nikkay. somebody unleashed a massive amount of of liquidity into the system. Where did that come from? >> So people that people been watching M2 and people think the I I believe the M2 rising lately over the last year and a half, two years was not the Federal Reserve printing money. It's what happens in the end of a large credit cycle. That's Ponzi credit. So that's actual private credit creation. That is basically at the end of the day it's debt created to backs stop prior debt or pay interest on debt with the promise of future uh you know returns and the market at some point will say no mass and that that Ponzi credit will all go to zero. I think I truly believe when you when when when the system figured out that the US government was going to uh spend one and a and again it wasn't it wasn't like people were told but liquidity started pouring into the market in October of 23 because that's when I think the Biden administration really opened the floodgates to NOS's and and you got to remember a lot of the the the the illegals came in and starting in 232 24 and that's when people re that's when the the markets the banks liquidity felt better because they were you know people were getting checks into their NOS's the NGOs's then would then go into the stock market there was a lot of stock market speculation by so it wasn't a plan it was just a flooding of the US with deficit spending to support the illegal alien operation and Trump has at least stopped that so that you know that's why I said a recession was coming Trump's policies were going to cause it unfortunately his ego has gotten him to the point where he decided to back the AI bubble which is going to burst on his watch and he didn't have it. You know what they had an opportunity in January and February to sit down with the American people and say these are the policies we're going to do. They're going to bring back jobs. It'll take time because of negotiations on tariffs and breaking of ground. In the meantime, we're coming off this sugar high juice of illegal immigration and there's going to be ramifications. But, you know, just stick with us. But no, now they're going to own it. Unfortunately, they're gonna own it. >> Well, I was pretty excited when Doge was started ripping through using AI to sort of pierce through all the bureaucratic layers that they thought were impenetrable. Nobody will ever figure out our budgets. Um, and that was pretty exciting and but then they pulled the plug on that and and so they said, "Nah, we're not going to do we're just going to do topline growth. We're going to grow the economy." Which every president, you know, that's what they ultimately default to, I guess. But I didn't see the plan for how the economy was going to grow necessarily because AI could help on one hand, but it's deflationary on the other. You need cheap energy. So, we're okay there as a country, but electricity costs are starting to spike. So, that's getting a little painful. Um, but ultimately, the only way you're going to really get, I think, a resumption of of any kind of industry here in the US is you have to slash the regulations and the red tape. >> I agree. And I thought that was coming and we haven't seen that yet unfortunately. Uh the plan something needs to be done about China. And so the idea of tariffs while I've come to the conclusion they're deflationary overall is that um something needs to be done. We can't have China dumping uh excess capacity into the global markets. It'll just devastate wreck uh economies for years to come. And you have to reshore manufacturing. So, it's a good idea in theory, but the problem is, as you know, it doesn't happen overnight. So, Trump got all excited about these headline deals. Oh, Japan has committed 500 billion in investments in the US. Well, that's all that's all Danny, but you got to remember, if you go into the details underneath the the the, you know, the press releases, the the Japanese trade deal still needs to be ratified by their own parliament. So, that doesn't happen yet. Uh the 500 billion isn't going to like come here tomorrow. it take I mean you know this is this is long-term planning and breaking of ground and there's a valley between the hangover from the Biden fraud and then and they did they had an opportunity to communicate that to the American people they could have had a double their procession right before the midterms like Ronald Reagan did but they didn't now they're now claiming it's the greatest economy ever and you know I you're on X I'm on X you know people that wouldn't normally call BS on Trump or call him BS on Trump because it's such blatant gaslighting. It's it's it's comical and you know you you you can't be taken seriously as anybody who comments on anything on X without recognizing how ridiculous of a statement they're making about the economy. It's the golden age. It's just it's it's it's absurd. >> Well, it might be for them if they only hang out with 0.1enters. It's probably pretty good times, you know. >> Yeah, it it must be. But I mean I I mean all you have to do is like pop on Twitter or look at the stock market other than the top seven and you can figure out and look at the job. I mean they have access to the job numbers. The job numbers are going the wrong way. And uh and inflation's coming down and inflation is coming down not not that's not inflation coming down is good but not at the end of a credit cycle. And inflation coming down is actually you know a sign that the growth is slowing quite quite quickly. And one of the biggest uh components of the CPI is shelter, which is 36%. So, we're going to see a sub 2% CPI number sometime in the next 12 months, maybe by the end of the year. And it's going to be due to the shelter component. And that's that, you know, when you get deflation shelter, that affects banks and credit, and the feedback loops are not nice. Well, I've been thinking that um we may be mirroring um I think it was um uh who was that? Zultan uh in Apollo said, "Hey, you know, you know, history doesn't always repeat exactly. Sometimes it rhymes, but we had that double hump inflation in the 70s from 73 to 78 and then 79 to 82." Um and that was driven by bad monetary policy and uh energy spikes. I think we could see an energy spike here for reasons. Um, and it's based on a very fundamental deep analysis I do on natural gas, supply and demand, all that. Uh, that's one place I think consensus has it wrong. Um, because I'm looking at flat output for the last year and billions and billions of cubic feet per day of demand for LNG and data centers just piled up. Anyway, different story. But if we get that sort of uh I think we could get that set up and I think that we're looking at a place where the Federal Reserve is going to be forced to print again to avoid calamity or they're going to see it that way. What do you think? >> I think that's coming and then we'll have have another round of inflation, but before then we're going to get deflation and credit destruction. Um, you know, uh, this is this is this is usually confusing for a lot of people. During the great financial crisis, you probably remember go uh oil went to like 180 or 160, something crazy in June of 2008. The inflation prints were accelerating June, July, August, and then everything just went the wrong way. Um, so you know, this is this is coming. There's they're going to print they're going to print or we're going to get another round of infl of inflation. But before then, you know, we're going to get deflation hopefully in home prices because honestly, you know, if you're asking why the mayor in New York was elected, young people voted him in. They feel like they haven't had a fair shake. They're not participating in the capitalist system because they don't own anything. Uh home prices going down and taking out uh a lot of overlevered players. may be, you know, scary and the economy will, you know, there'll be layoffs, but ultimately you want to fix cap and make sure capitalism is popular and get people into into owning their own assets and home prices right now. It can't be done. Just can't for people that are first-time home buyers doesn't happen. The average age has climbed to like 40. It's ridiculous. The the the most of the people buying homes are boomers selling homes between themselves. Millennials can't get in. It's a generational problem. Well, I think that it I'm starting and listen, I'm no political Sharpie, but you know, I observe because I think it has effects on markets and I'd like to know if the Trump administration continues on their current plan. I think they're a little tonedeaf. They're missing the fact that they've alienated a lot of people, especially the young people, and I think maybe we had early insights into that in this current voting that happened in New York and Virginia. Okay. Um, if they end up losing the midterms and the Democrats take control back, I think Trump goes down as Hoover because the Democrats are going to be in no mood to do anything other than be obstructionist and block everything. And uh, I think that's that. And what do you think? >> Yeah, there's a Hoover chance coming. And that's why I put out a memo to the White House yesterday. >> Uh, yeah. I I said because they were they were they were they were talking about the great stock market and I said no one cares about 7 AI stocks uh while the rest of the market implodes and you are going to face a Hoover moment unless you change the messaging andor focus. I mean you know talking about a great stock market in this economy that seven AI stocks is is it's absurd and it's it's it's not going to work. So I agree with you. There's a Hoover moment coming unless they unless they pull a 180 and start focusing on domestic issues, real problems, and stop this in, you know, this this gaslighting because it's not working, frankly. I mean, look, we all we all laughed at the Biden gaslighting, and you know, I'm I'm sorry. I I call balls and strikes. I'm going to la I'm going to laugh at this gaslighting. It's it's absurd. The housing market the housing market is rolling over. We're going to have a recession without even an AI bubble bursting. But now we're going to have an air bubble bursting and a housing recession. It's going to be very difficult. And if you if they don't change their messaging and focus and start to lay the blame on where, you know, the blame is due, they're going to they're going to lose they're going to lose uh the midterms badly. You know, the other thing I wanted to point out, a lot of people talk about the 70s inflation being the same as this current regime we're in. The one difference that I want to point out is in the 70s we had a demographic boom of the boomers moving into the workforce and we don't have that now. We we we don't have a boom of so uh a lot a lot of a lot of the prices that we see are artificial in the housing market. They're they're they're uh they were prepped. The Federal I during COVID, I'm sure you you saw the Federal Reserve bought billions of dollars of MBS, trillions of dollars of MBS, and they bought them off the bank's balance sheet to inject liquidity. What did the banks do? They went out and lend more money. So that's why we had a housing boom uh right, you know, right after the COVID fiasco that when unfortunately and also because of illegal immigration, our numbers show that we overbuilt multi- uh multi-tenant structures. These are units of five more, five units or more uh to the tune of bigger than the 70s boom. So the the boomers graduated from college, moved into apartments, then they eventually bought single family homes. But in the 70s, we had a multi uh multi-unit uh buildout the likes of which we haven't seen since. Well, we just we just exceeded that in the last couple years. So there's going to be you're going to see uh rents below home prices for some time to come. Uh and eventually that for ho for for homes to be able to be sold that has to homes need to get to get cheaper than rents. That's coming and that the way that's going to happen is price and there's going to be a lot of people that you know are going to be benefiting from that on the buy on the buy side. But those who are over levered are going to be taken to the the woodshed. All the Airbnb speculators, they're done. That's in that's in motion. I I I live on Maui. There's tons of people who bought these properties. is they outbid locals because the math worked at the time and they thought they're going to have these rental incomes. And guess what? That's going to not happen. >> Now, tacking on top of that, I don't know if you saw, but I've interviewed a gentleman named Mitch Vexler a couple of times, and he sort of exposed this um uh property tax fraud. It started in his home county in Texas. He's a developer and he noted that their methodology that they're supposed to follow from the assessor standpoint was not being followed. So he scratched and dug and what he found was just an unbelievable amount of fraud and waste and all that. So quick example, Denton County, which I drive through to go to my friend Jeff's ranch uh up north of Fort Worth. It's it's it's cows. It's single and double wides. I think the average family income is like 63,000 or something. It's not, you know, not all that. They have something like a hundred billion dollars of debt on that county. Now, Texas counties are big and almost all of that is school debt because they have these rocking football stadiums for their little, you know, DF3 scrub team, right? Hopeful. Uh, but at any rate, there's not a ch. He said it's as if every single household in Denton County had a $ 1.9 million mortgage on it above what they already owe because that's what it's going to take to pay it back. And that's all collateralized with with the real estate property taxes that are levied upon those homes. Long story made endless. It doesn't math. It it can never be paid back. >> Yes. And so I don't know if you remember right after the uh great financial crisis, there were a lot of smart hedge fund managers who um thought there was going to be a municipal bond crisis next. Remember that? Well, >> what they didn't count on was a couple things. Interest rates went to zero and stayed there for a long long time. And the federal government became a bigger and bigger part of uh they the I think at the great financial crisis 70% of all um public debt was federal and 30% was local. by the uh by the time COVID hit it was 90% federal, 10% local. So the so what that meant was the federal government was using their credit rating to subsidize a lot of these states and local municipalities. So these people have gotten fat off of government large ass and some of them have, you know, not all of them, but some of them have done what you what you just outlined is, you know, issued hundred billion dollars in debt and they're never going to be able to pay it back and it's going to be a disaster. And so maybe the MUN crisis is another thing we have to think about at some point. >> Well, if if house prices start falling, you're going to see a lot of people filing for abatements. And you know because the trick that they use like I live in a prop two and a half state so allegedly my property taxes can't go up by two and more than two and a half% in any given year but that's just the rate that so the way they get around that is they assess your house a lot higher and apply the same rate to it. Um and so uh we've seen property taxes going up by 5 6 7% 7% nationally higher than that in some locations and that's a compounding problem. So those at 7% rule of 72 every 10 years your property taxes double and uh obviously this is eating in in a big big way but I don't know how to solve that and if there's falling house prices I could really see this turning into a hot mess there. >> Yeah absolutely and there's going to be a lot of hot messes. Uh we yeah the rule of 72 is is odious. People don't understand that it's it's you know uh what is it 15% it doubles every 5 years 7% 10 something like that. >> Mhm. >> Yeah. And you look the fundamental problem with the with the average consumer is this. They don't make a their their wages have not kept up with inflation. They have a grocery problem. You throw on top of that a health care problem because you know because of COVID and all the disabilities and death and destruction that's going on. Everybody's raising insurance costs. So they can't afford health care anymore. Uh and then you have property taxes. Then you have insurance on your home. Insurance costs have gone up. The whole fixed cost of like just being in the world is at the point where everything discretionary is getting torpedoed. So you know going out to a restaurant, no no go. And that's what we're seeing. McDonald's is seeing people not able to go to McDonald's. When does that ever happen? Not often. And we're we're at the end. And and and again, that's why the Trump administration is so tonedeaf. If they lived in the shoes of the average $50,000 a year person, these people, you know, they got hope when he was elected, but they have seen nothing since. Nothing. Nothing's changed for them. Not a threat. >> Well, surely bombing Venezuela will help. to get the oil because I don't care about the I mean I mean if they didn't have any oil would we get care about Venezuela? I don't I don't think so. >> I I just so and you know there's the you know I I I shy away from talking about anything Israel but that's a constant distraction. Um >> you know the you know they the the European Union wants to drag us into war with Russia because their solution to what's happening to them with their pension system basically bankrupt is they need to go to war. So they they they're if you if you follow anybody who's into the the war scene, the the the statements coming out of these governments and their actions are they're gearing up for war. And you know how that works when you get the bureaucracy gearing up for something usually erupts at some point. So it wouldn't shock me at all to see at least a conventional European war. Maybe it goes tactical nuke. I don't know. But it it doesn't it the debt and and and demographic problems are coming to a head. They just are. >> Well, in Europe is um my poster child for if you want to peer into the future. Just look at Germany, right? So they shot themselves in the energy foot, right? The Nordstream pipeline, they didn't make a peep. They dismantled their own nukes. That's on them. Um they put in very expensive solar and wind and it's a very gray country on average. So anyway, bad ideas. But even with all of that, they they they now have years of data in front of them. Their their energy intensive industries have crashed more than at the depths of the Great Depression. We're down 26% from just four or five years ago. And it's crashing. And their solution is to do a little bit more of the same and send some more money to Ukraine. It's I've never seen anything this illogical in my life. >> You know, you have to ask yourself, is it on purpose? Because how I mean or There's a lot going on that makes no sense to me, Chris, and I'm sure it does to you as well. So then you have to ask yourself, are they stupid or are they, you know, controlled and this is a, you know, a purposeful detonation of the west to bring in some crisis that thing can be managed through, you know, central bank digital currency, UBI, one world order, whatever you want to call it. It it it's it's it's it you know when you have decisions made that are that stupid that you know armchart analysts like you and I can figure this out in like two seconds there's a plan I think. >> Yeah. Well I it took me a little while to wrap my head around that under co because at first I was like how can they be this stupid? But when they flip the coin and it comes up heads 50 times in a row, like every decision was a bad was the wrong decision, right? Um eventually you have to understand that it's either a two-headed coin or um you know some other fraud is being committed. Like the point wasn't to create public health. The point was to lock people down, instill them with fear, get them, you know, injected with this new thing that they had were so eager to get into everybody for some reason. Um and and we're still seeing that the the long-term impacts of that. Obviously, it it's it's devastating by the statistics at this point. Birth rates, cancer rates, disabilities. It's just it's stunning that we can't even have an honest conversation still about that. >> No, that you know, look, I think Bobby Kennedy is doing the best he can. Uh he hasn't changed, but he he's not the boss and he's, you know, in a hostile environment in the bureaucracy. Same with Jay Bacharia. They're doing the best they can, but the buck stops with Trump. He's the he's the chief and his inadmission his ability to not admit what happened with the vaccines uh and to praise Fizer and to have Larry Ellison in there talk about mRNA cancer vaccines. Uh that's also another problem uh for him as well. a lot of people uh voted for him because of Bobby and Maha and the fact that Maha hasn't really tackled the vaccine issue and at least on the MMA side I don't think it's the fault of Bobby or Maha I think it's it's it's that's the the director from on high is you can you can go only so far but no further and until we have a national reconciliation and some of these people who did this are put in jail that's another lingering issue besides the economic disaster that's coming. So Trump Trump has to pull a 180 on a bunch of things, vaccines, mRNA vaccines, and his economic policy and talking points because talking about how great the economy is is just I mean it's >> absurd. >> Just absurd. >> Well, I actually agreed with a I think it was Dave Smith said it because I I didn't realize it at the time. I had a lot of I I wanted to give Trump all the benefit of the doubt, right? And of the five basic platforms that are out there, I'm giving him various grades between DNF um for for for you know where we are. And I get it. It's harder than it looks and you're up against the deep state and the swamp and all that. >> But the moment he said the Epstein files are a hoax, >> we all know that's not true, right? And that was just a a too much too far for me moment. I think that was a breaking moment. I think for a lot of people in what you'd call MAGA or whatever who were kind of hoping that things would be different. That's more of the same right there. >> I agree. And so that then the thesis was put forth by many. Well, they've decided to not release it because they're using it as blackmail to control the deep state. And I and I said, "Look, if you're going to use evil uh means to do this and and and and basically cover up the crimes that these people did that blackmailed them, you're no better than the other people. I'm sorry. I have a moral problem with that. We do not protect pedophiles and and uh child murderers or whatever is going on, human traffic, and we do not protect that. We do not use that. Oh, we're not in power. We're going to use the same methods that the other administration. No, that's not happening. So, even if that's this thesis, it doesn't work for me. So, then the question is what's going on? And you know, I think a lot of people uh Trump has been doing a good job of losing a lot of his base step by step. He lost a lot of people on that. He lost a lot of people uh in Maha with the MRNA. Not everybody, but a lot of >> the farmers. >> Yeah, the farmers. Now he's losing Wall Street because, you know, he's, you know, I know a lot of guys on Wall Street who love Trump, but they're like, "How can you be talking about how great the economy is and he's, you know, excited about a stock market that everybody is in agreement is a bubble and they're just waiting to burst it and and and short it on the other side." No, I'm not. That's the thing about bubbles. You don't try to short it. you're waiting until it pops, then you can short the hell out of it. So, do not short this then is my recommendation to anybody. >> Just avoid the storm. Have uh low volatile assets like cash, tea bills, and uh and wait for, you know, do what Warren Buffett's going to do. Wait for wait for the bargains. You do not want to make money shorting this thing. It it could go up another 20% from here, especially if Trump backs open AI. We don't know. Markets are facing heightened uncertainty and thoughtful portfolio management has never [music] been more important. If your current strategy relies solely on passive investing or diversification without active oversight, it may be time to consider [music] a different approach. At Peak Financial Investing, we connect you with experienced wealth managers who actively manage portfolios using disciplined, research-driven strategies [music] designed to adapt to evolving market conditions. Our focus is on helping clients navigate volatility with clarity and [music] confidence. While no investment strategy can guarantee results or eliminate risk, we believe that preparation [music] and active management can make a meaningful difference over time. Visit peakfinancialinvesting.com [music] to schedule a complimentary consultation and explore whether our approach aligns with your goals. I'm Dr. Chris Martinson and I am [music] proud to support Peak Financial Investing. This is not a guarantee of future performance, but a call [music] to take your financial planning seriously. Again, that's peak financialvesting.com. Investing, of course, [music] involves risk, including the potential loss of principle. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult [music] with a qualified adviser before making investment decisions. So, um, if you're, you know, they say every bubble's in search of a pin or maybe a hedgehog full of pins, but where are you looking? Are you watching the headline indices? Are you watching sub components? Are you watching credit? Are you watching junk debt? What do you watch to to give you early warning signs? >> Yeah, I'm watching credit. And let's look let's look at the the the US uh uh treasury market, especially the long end, the 10 year and the 30-year. And let's let's also look at the US dollar there. There I follow cycles work by Tim Wood. He's very good at uh cycles. The three-year Treasury has a three-year cycle. Uh the 30-year Treasury has a three-ear cycle. USD four-year cycle. They're converging and putting in major lows recently and now they're starting to slowly steadily go up, which says to me that risk takingaking on the margin is evaporating. So that the US dollar going up is a sign of credit destruction and dollar liquidity shortages across the globe which makes sense. These tariffs are creating dollar liquidity issues um and risk off on the margins is coming off the US Treasury market that does look at the tenure when we issued our report that a recession was coming. The tenure is at 480. It's now 415 but it's going lower. And once the understanding that uh the jobs are going the wrong way and the economy is going the wrong way, there's going to be a moment where the Fed chases and and and T- bonds and 10-year notes and and whatnot are going to add a tremendous appreciation. So that's I watch those. They're already giving you the warning signs for the stock market. The Hindenburg omens don't help. I think yesterday's nonsense with Sam Alman and uh Nvidia admitting that they are basically out of money uh may this may be the pop it may you know Trump may come in and and bail this out but we're we're we're close and we're the endg games. We're looking at credit spreads are starting to slowly creep up. Regional banks are rolling over. That's a sub component. Home builders are rolling over. So everything says to me it's not 6 to 12 months from now. It's within a six-month window that it becomes apparent to everyone the stock market's done. >> And and do you track Bitcoin at all? I I have because it's sort of my preferred liquidity gauge. >> Yeah, you that's spot on. Bitcoin is a liquidity gauge. I look nothing against Bitcoin, but it is not a store of value. It is a 95% correlated asset to the NASDAQ and it usually has been pretty good of indicating liquidity problems by a couple weeks and Bitcoin just started rolling over uh and it's struggling to go to new highs. We had that issue with the altcoins. The al altcoin community was wiped out a couple weeks ago. Um so you can see you can feel it. You can you can see if you've been doing this for a long time, you can see all the indicators that liquidity is slowly leaving the markets and and uh people think that the Fed lowering interest rate 25 basis points is liquidity. No, that just that that takes 18 months to work into the system. That's not money printing. That's just that's that's just uh something that they're doing uh to to help. Liquidity would be if they printed money and gave it to the banks. They haven't done that yet. They can't do that until there's some sort of crisis. So, I expect the Fed to react at some point, but until then, we're going to see degradation in the equity markets eventually, the credit markets and and corporate debt. Uh, and you can see it already. I mean, you know, First Brands was a warning sign. Private credit is a one and a half to two trillion dollar opaque, you know, mysterious, no one knows what's going on there kind of thing. And uh that's been a lot of the Ponzi finance. You get banks pulled back from lending to these these uh private credit is nothing more than lending to small businesses and medium businesses that are private. Um the banks used to do that. They don't anymore. So they gave it to private equity and then private equity to the but the banks are exposed to private credit funds and private equity funds via loans to them. So they're on the hook too. And um who's on the hook for the 11.3% defaulting CMBBS paper, the commercial mortgage back securities? Who's is somebody not marking that to market? Where is that? That must be a trillion in losses. >> That's not correct. There's three trillion of that money on banks balance sheets. And there's been a little game going on that was allowed under the Biden administration. It was called extend and pretend. And in November of uh 2024, right before Trump uh won, uh the Federal Reserve in New York put out a paper saying they're concerned because they're extending and pretending. And that is starting to that that can only, you know, that can only be hidden for so long. When you start to have other credit issues like in the uh subprime, they start to feed and then if you have a housing problem, so that housing is 12 trillion on the bank's balance sheets, it's going to come to light. It's just it just it's been it's been hidden, but it's there. It hasn't gone away. It's a disaster. And you you know, there was kind of this like wink wink nod nod. We're going to pretend it's not there and hope that uh nobody notices. Well, that that's that that's still there and it's coming to light at some point. >> Yeah. Last question. What about uh gold and silver? It feels to me like the baton in the in the physical market is maybe passed over to Shanghai at this point in time. gold is going to be bid for years to come. Um, you know, if you if we we our China report can illustrate why I can't give that up because that's that's uh sensitive information. But China will be buying gold for years to come. Uh, central banks will be buying gold for years to come. Commercial banks are now buying gold because it's tier one capital and you can, you know, loan against it. Physical gold that is not GLD or futures. Um so gold the gold you know had a huge move to 4 4400 you know how these things work. It's it is ultimately a still a commodity. It will how tech you know will trade technically. So we're in a cons consolidation phase. It could be three months. It could be a year. Once it's done consolidating it's on its way to you know I I know people who are smart who've done good technical analysis. Plus the fundamentals and technicals when you marry them together suggest that gold's going to 10,000 by 2030 and silver will follow. So you know I would buy gold on on dips there in any kind of financial margin call or or systemic crisis. Gold may go down 30 40% due to margin calls. Buy it immediately if you can. It won't stay there long. >> I agree. And it it's um it's the only financial asset I know that is not somebody else's liability. if you hold it >> right and again because it's st one of the problems getting factors on gold is you got to store it and you don't if you do buy gold and store it on your property don't tell anybody that you're doing it uh and if you custody it somewhere then you know and things get really wacky and the government wants to take it they can come to the custodian and take it so it it shouldn't be a whole big part of your wealth but it should be a percentage of your wealth you know anywhere from two maybe 10% depending upon what you want to do. Uh I know some people are gold bugs and that's great, but you know the problem is you got to eventually get the gold into the system to transact. It's hard to scrape gold bars and transact. >> Yeah. Yeah. And I've taken my my first calls in the last six months from uh Canadian clients, I would say, um who want their gold out of Canada because they don't trust the government there anymore. >> I there's going to be trust issues all over the place. And look, we haven't had capital controls in the US. They're coming. They're coming. Capital controls are coming. Trust me. >> What's that going to look like? >> Uh that's going to it's going to be harder to move uh assets from uh overseas to here. Uh you're not going to be able to um you might, you know, might not be allowed to take your money out of certain banks. Uh and uh the capital controls could certainly be imposed on corporations. What it what they're going to try to do is to make sure that capital doesn't flee from the US if we get in into trouble. And we might get into trouble. If we do, then you have capital controls. China has capital controls. Uh and there's a reason they do because everybody there would want to get their money out of the country. And some of that's been leaking. That's part of the problem is the soft power from China is that they have vast quantities of M2 that people really need to be aware of. they they they they hold about 43% of the money supply of the world >> and it does leak out and that finds its way into real assets and soft power. So if we allowed uh China and had no capital controls and China didn't have any of their own, the money would flee and they'd be able to buy up the world because ultimately people there know that there's a problem in China with the power structure. Well, and they just passed a a rule kind of arcane, but they placed silver on a on a export list, control list. It's a sensitive material for them. So, that's okay. You can still export it, but you know, a lot of rules now and you have to anyway, it has to be run up the party flag pole and somebody up high has to say, "Okay." So, that kind of gives it a little bit of a roach motel. Silver comes in easy, but it's going to be harder to get it back out again. >> Yeah. And that could h that could happen with us. gold we they may not allow allow exporting of gold or silver here as well. Capital controls come in very many many various forms and basically capital controls lower the velocity of money which lowers economic growth. That's unfortunately one of the side effects >> with massive debt on the books. What could go wrong? Um, so any closing words for for people listening like like a where do they follow you but b what should they be considering doing in terms of um d-risking their portfolios right now? >> Yeah, so basically you can follow me on xdowed edward. Um our website is financologies.com with a ph you can buy any of our economic research reports. we real estate reports, US economy report, and a an expensive China report, but it is more geared towards institutions and and geop uh governments and hedge funds and whatnot. Um I also have a private uh website, eddow.com, if you want to find me there and sign up because I do think uh you know, just because we're on Twitter, we're able to communicate, I don't think that's always going to be the case, especially if we have a new administration uh in in three years. you're going to start you got to start developing your own email list is my humble opinion. Um, in terms of um uh I've been I've been I've been beating the same drum. I'm not going to tell you what percentage of your wealth should be in cash, but you should have some portion of your portfolio in cash meaning tea bills or money market funds so that you can take advantage of the opportunities that are coming. Just like Warren Buffett, he is five and a half percent of his of, you know, five and a half% of the T-Bone market, biggest stock cash stockpile ever. And he does because he knows what's coming and he's going to buy bargains. So, I've been consulting with a lot of different people. Uh, so I have a side gig doing that. And a lot of the people that come to me are already prepared and I tell them, look, you're you're you're ready. Just wait, relax, and buy when when the opportunities come. If you're not prepared, if you're up to your eyeballs in equities and margin account uh leverage, uh you should start thinking about moving to the sidelines. And that's all I can say about that. >> Understood and well said. [music] All right. Well, Ed, thank you so much for your time and uh great catching up with you here today. >> Same, Chris. Always a pleasure. Take care.