FED CUTS & GOLD: Wildest Gold Run Ever, $4500 Is Next | David Erfle
Summary
Gold Market Dynamics: Gold is trading near all-time highs, with significant technical patterns suggesting a bullish outlook, including a breakout from a 13-year cup and handle pattern.
Federal Reserve Policy: The Federal Reserve's recent easing cycle amidst rising inflation is contributing to the bullish sentiment in gold, as it signals potential loss of confidence in traditional monetary policy.
Mining Stocks and GDX: The GDX is at all-time highs, indicating strong performance in mining stocks, although there is caution about overbought conditions and potential for short-term pullbacks.
Investment Strategy: Investors are advised to maintain a watch list of potential buys, focusing on valuations relative to the current high gold prices, and to consider trimming profits in overbought conditions.
Market Sentiment and M&A: Despite high gold prices, major mining companies are cautious with M&A, focusing on internal asset optimization, while juniors remain undervalued compared to historical metrics.
Exploration and Financing: The financing window is open, with oversubscribed financings indicating strong investor interest, particularly in projects that become viable at higher gold prices.
Sector Outlook: The discussion highlights a new valuation paradigm for gold, with a solid price floor expected, and the potential for continued bullish momentum as generalist investors enter the market.
Transcript
Gold is trading near all-time high levels. Silver is at 14-year highs. The GDX is at all-time highs as well. It's getting scary out there. I have to admit, I'm looking at these price levels, and I'm wondering like how much is left in the tank. And should we be should we be hedging? Now, I've invited a phenomenal guest today to the program. It's David Erley. He's the junior minor junkie. And we'll we'll dissect market dynamics a little bit. We'll take a look at gold and silver, of course, uh but also the mining stocks, like how much runway is left, where we at in the cycle. Is this time different? Because the GDX is massively overbought if you look at the RSI, but we've never traded at $3,750 an ounce. So, are the old metrics still uh accurate? Should we still use those old metrics to make our valuations, predictions here? Before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and uh we much much appreciate it. Did I mention it's free as well? Please do it. Thank you so much. Now, David, it is great to welcome you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Hey, Kai, great to see you again as well. I It was also great to see you in person at Beaver Creek. It It was It was a fantastic show. >> Absolutely. Yeah, tremendously appreciate it. Like, it was great to have dinner uh one of the nights and just just catch up and shoot the shoot I can't say that, can I? Just uh just just chat. No, but David, we we need to get a bit of a reality check here. Um, let's maybe start at the at the top, but gold, silver, um, gold gold in particular, 3750, uh, it's trading near all-time high levels. When ruckle, like how worried are you about the current price development? What is priced in? Give us a quick overview. >> Yeah, it's it's pretty incredible now that we're in a bull market. You know, we were we had our bare market caps on for, you know, for the last two years in 23 and 24 as far as the mining sector was concerned. We were, you know, we're always wondering where the bottom was on on corrections. And now we're wondering where the top is during these impulse moves. And this impulse move is super strong, Kai. I mean, this is the strongest impulse move I've seen in this segment. I've been in the sector for over 20 years now and I haven't seen one this strong and this overbought technically. Um it's really incredible and like you said it's it's getting a little scary as to as to as to how we wonder when the where the where the interim top is going to be and that's what it is going to be likely is an interimm top not a major um top. So, it's really uh interesting how how this has played out. You know, um we had um first we had the the gold price break out of a 13-year cup and handle pattern. That's the most powerful technical pattern in technical analysis. And when it broke above 2100, the the gold price has pretty much not let up. And it's it's it's it nearly it it hit uh 38.25 uh in the in the futures market uh yesterday. And if you take a look at the recent consolidation, it was nearly five months. And what gold has been doing is it is it is it makes a nice up strong up leg and then it consolidates inside of a symmetrical triangle which is a bullish consolidation pattern which makes lower highs and higher lows into an apex. And then once it reached that apex, it breaks out. And that's what it's done recently after hitting $3,500 an ounce uh back in a in uh April. And um then we had this nearly fivemon consolidation and it's broken out. And that the the the technical target of that breakout is 3850 to 4,000. And like I said, the the December futures nearly hit it this week at at 38.25. We're starting to to see uh some pullback today as the the market is awaiting uh uh PCE inflation uh numbers from from the US and also the final US GD uh Q2 GDP number this week. But um you know I've never seen um a stronger wind for the for the for the gold price to the upside uh since I've been in this sector over 20 years. Yeah, I'm I'm really jealous of everybody who's coming new into this market because they look at it with a fresh set of eyes here and as you said like we got the bare market mindset still and uh it was one of my takeaways from Beaver Creek perhaps and I'm working on this still but I need to understand that this is a new a new paradigm like we're in a new price environment we've seen it in Q2 with a record free cash flows but also in terms of valuations we need to get used to the fact that 3,700 might be here to stay or even 35 500 which I'm still happy with. Okay. Um but this is a new valuation paradigm. The question is like is there anything that could sort of change that yet again? Like are we is there still a reason to be negative right now? If that makes sense. >> Well, you know, I really don't see uh a bearish headwind for the gold price out there other than that than than technically having some, you know, short to intermediate term profit taking. But like I said, I I expect that 3850 to 4,000 target to be hit first before we see some some, you know, some extended profit taking. Um, you know, we're starting to see uh uh, you know, uh, the gold price start to run away almost like in in 1979. As a matter of fact, it's made 37 new fresh all-time highs this year, and it's first time it's done that since 1979. Um, in 1979, I was just a a teenager, but I remember going through my father's change looking for for silver uh dimes and quarters, and I still have those today. And um, as the the silver as the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, and silver went I think it it peaked at $50.36 was the ultimate peak. And, you know, um, and then 2011, it revisited that that peak again. But as far as the gold price is concerned, you know, the gold price, um, it went it went from $35 an ounce when Nixon took us off the gold standard in 71 to $200 an ounce, I think, by like 1975. And then it had this 50% correction. Everybody thought it was all over. And then it moved from $100 to $400 by late 1979. And then we had this blowoff top up move that was incredible. It went from $400 to $850 and I think it was six six or seven weeks when we had the Iran um hostage crisis coupled with Russia rolling into Afghanistan. So it was geopolitical it was geopolitical um uh reasons why the gold price went from 400 to a to a blowoff top at 850. And we have all those same things happening here that we did back in in in the late 70s, right? But but but it but back then um the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates at a rapid pace. I think it got to like 19% in 1980. But now the Federal Reserve just announced a an e another easing cycle in the face of rising inflation. That's what gold is really rising on here now because the Federal Reserve has been has been, you know, has been touting this fantasy 2% target they're trying to reach and now they've basically caved on on that inflation target because inflation is about 3% right now. So, they're lowering rates in the face of rising inflation and it's telling the market, "Hey, maybe Pal was starting to listen to Trump who keeps hammering at him to lower rates." You know, Trump is has has been filling the the Federal Reserve with with with loyalists. He just um put in um uh uh Stephen Mirren as a Fed governor right before the Fed uh announced uh uh uh an easing cycle, the easing cycle. So, he wanted to to lower 50 basis points. You know, he was the lone member that wanted to lower 50 basis points. But there were other members that didn't want to raise at all. Some members only want to raise one or two times more this. They're all over the place. And that shows a loss of faith and confidence in not only the govern the US government but the Federal Reserve and the and and investors are losing faith and confidence in the government as the debt continues to spiral out of control and they're doing nothing about it. What a matter of fact they're adding to it. So I mean the last monthly budget deficit in one month was 358 billion. I mean, back in in the late 70s when they were raising interest rates to try to tame inflation, they were able to do it because debt to GDP was only 35% and our and the national debt had had just reached a trillion. And now just our budget deficit alone for a year is two trillion. So the world is seeing that, hey, these central banks continue to borrow with no intention to pay anything back. The debt's going to get worse. Central banks are going to keep buying gold. Hey, may maybe I better get on board to buy gold. Also, I mean, last Friday, the GLD had its largest inflow in one day in its 21-year history of $2.2 billion dollar. >> Nice. Nice. We like seeing that. Um because that means there's more to come potentially as well. Um because inflows have been, you know, far and few between. Like the GDX is still seeing outflows to a degree despite its rising price. It's it's mind-blowing if you look at it. People are still liquidating that position here. Um, run us a bit through it because I've cued the chart here for uh the GDX. Let's take a look at this as well real quick. Um, let me add it to the screen here. But GDX is at all-time high level. It's 22 horn, doesn't it? >> Like what do you make of this? Like how overbought are we here? And how long can we stay overbought? >> I mean, I've been trimming for the past month, you know? I mean, I you know, I have a I have a retirement account that I also share with my sub subscribers along with my junior account and it's it's got gold stocks that, you know, I've made so much money on and have have done so well. I've been trimming and um they just keep going higher because they're they're still catching up to the gold price. I mean, when you you look at that high back in 2011, that was when gold was trying to was attempting to break out above just 1900. So, you know, now we're we're at we're we're we're closing in on 4,000. I mean, Canadian gold's at $5,200 an ounce. So, you know, I mean, the gold price is breaking out in all currencies. It's a full-blown bull market. And yet, if you look at the gold stocks in relation to the gold price, they still have a lot of catching up to do. Short-term, they're wildly overbought like like you've mentioned, and they're due for a pullback. you know, it's I've been saying that for the past month that they're due for a pullback, but it just they they just keep going higher. U and I and I still believe there's a lot of people on the sidelines waiting to get in because if you take a look at the the loan chart, the loan stock in the S&P 500 is Pneumont, right? >> It is trounced every other major gainers in the S&P 500 this year. It's up I think it's up 120% this year and yet it's hardly mentioned in the mainstream media. You turn on MSNBC, they don't mention it. Sure, you're starting to hear mentions of the gold price, you know, making these all-time highs and saying, "But hey, Trump's economy, they're, you know, he he he announced a golden age, but he didn't think that they were going to start buying gold so much because of because of their fearing of of his policies and tariffs and everything. So the gold price has been mentioned as going up, but the loan, you know, the lone gold stock in the S&P 500 going up 120%, that's not really mentioned. And if you look at the volume, it's really not that out of control. So I I still think there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to get in. They're waiting for that for that rug to be pulled. They're waiting for that weakness to come in. And once the weakness has been coming in recently, it's is it's bought almost automatically. I mean, last week on Tuesday, right before Fed speak, right? We had the gold stocks were being hit with a gold price and silver price were still up. So, we're thinking, okay, we're finally going to start to see some weakness. You know, the Fed's going to announce a 25 basis point rate cut. It's going to be expected. It's going to be sell the news. They were buying the rumor that they were going to start easing again, so they're going to sell the news. And that's what happened. But then on Friday, we had a huge move to the upside. The weakness was immediately bought. And then this Monday it can it was continuing to be bought. So you know these these this weakness continues to be bought. So um I I mean it's it's as far as waiting to get in. Sure, wait for weakness, but um look at what you want to look at is you want to look at valuations in relation to the gold price. Like you mentioned, we have to start factoring then in that hey the gold price is higher. It's going to there's a there's a solid $3,000 floor now. And if and a lot of these economic studies that that a lot of these these companies have been doing that have been derisking these projects, they're using $2,000 gold or less on their economic studies. Sure, some have raised to to 24500, but still that's still pretty low considering that we now have a $3,000 gold floor. Yeah, I've been mentioning it here on this show as well, like the majors, for example, when they do their reserve calculations, I think, and I haven't checked in the last two weeks. Uh, but they're still sitting at 16 or $1,700 an ounce. They've already increased it, but just a little bit, right? So, they're not at 3,000. Like, what does that do? Because there's also some negative implications if they do that. Meaning, they don't necessarily have to go out and do M&A. And maybe as an example, Bareric um sort of unearthed for a mile within their portfolio. I think the market has been completely asleep on it. Like I don't follow the majors too closely, meaning like I was a bit surprised to see that updated PA that shook the market and the stock just jumped 20% within like two three days. Um but what do you make of that impact potentially and maybe we even uh the barrack story here as well and the unearthing of potential within the portfolio when it comes to the M&A cycle here? >> Yeah, you would think that would keep uh investors skeptical, right? that if these guys think that gold is gonna is going to eventually come back down to this price, then why we should why should we be buying their stock? And also, you've seen Agniko, you saw Ken Ross this week. Um, you saw you saw them uh sell their positions in in uh juniors. Um, I think Agniko sold their position in Ora. Kin Ross just sold their position in uh Asante. And there was another that I that I saw that that sold a sold a position in Ora. forget the the other company, but you know, you don't want to see that. You want to see majors investing in in these juniors. You want to see them taking strategic positions because eventually they're going to they're going to have to start replacing these ounces. And to do that, they're going to they're going to want to be doing it on Bay Street as opposed to as as opposed to uh trying to start these project start new projects themselves or or explore the projects they already have. It's a lot easier to to go out and and acquire an undervalued junior that is a latestage junior or or a single asset producer uh you know to to add to your ounces because you know they've already shored up their balance sheets. Check they're they're paying healthy dividends for the first time in I you know when I first got into this sector a gold stock dividend was unheard of over 20 years ago and and they're also buying back shares. So what's next on the agenda is replacing ounces. That's what investors want. >> Yeah. And that the question is like will they though or are they just going to rerate or revalue the ounces they already have which are near mine, easy to get to? And I'm I'm generalizing here. Every asset is different of course and you can't really >> Yeah. And or consolidate within themselves, right? Mergers of equals. >> Exactly. But the question is, do we really need a push for M&A at this price level? Because all of a sudden marginal allowances become very economic. And I think that's one of the trends. Maybe we can discuss that real quick, David, as well. We're seeing a lot of financings being overs subscribed. And one of the CEOs in Beaver Creek told me, he's like, "Well, Kai, at 2,000, this project was not economic at all. At 3,600, we got this high-grade pocket. We'll just print cash." And that's I'm paraphrasing a little bit, but that's pretty much what he said in just as many words. >> So, and that that financing has been over subscribed three times. They raised they could have raised $100 million if they wanted to. Yeah, that financing window is wide open now, right? And so you're going to you're going to see these huge drilling, you know, programs, you know, um labs are going to be backed up again. Um yeah, I mean it's the money is is flowing generously in this sector finally and that and and that's what we need. But is when you're but when you're talking about M&A, I mean, a a lot of these companies that are um de-risking these later stage projects that that that are near-term takeover candidates, you know, they've reached the finance stage or they've even financed, they're waiting for a permit or they've even begun construction. um these are takeover targets, but their share prices, they're still trading, you know, at less than a couple hundred ounces of dollar gold in the ground. In some pl in some cases, even less than $100 an ounce in the ground. And as if you you recall during the the last bull market in 2011, companies were being bought out at a, $1,200 an ounce in the ground with a gold price at $1,800. So, you know, we got a long way to go before we see a mania M&A phase. I saw a a really good interview with Ross Beatty recently. And he said that he didn't expect to see M&A really ramp up that much in in in the in the short to to intermediate term. And as far as I'm concerned, you know, as an investor and a newsletter writer that's recommending these stocks that that that we have in our portfolio, you know, mo many of them have already tripled and some have have gone up even more. Um, we don't want to see M&A we don't want to see our our juniors acquired just yet. We we'd rather see them run a lot more on their own before they do. >> Abs. Absolutely. Like you don't want to sell too early, but you want to participate in the upside. I actually have the occasional 10bagger in my portfolio. >> Yeah. It's like what is this? Like it's green and then you flick it. It's like it doesn't move and it's okay. Great. >> Yes. We got a 10bagger in our portfolio right now. It's a monster. It just keeps montage gold. It just keeps rising. >> Yeah. >> There there's sector corrections and this stock just keeps bifurcating and going higher. >> Yeah. Montage Gold don't care, you know. Yeah. >> Montage don't care, you know. It's just like Honeybadger don't care. Montage don't care. They just It just goes. >> Yeah. >> No, but um David, coming back to like maybe the the uh for lack of better term, it's not really optionality plays, but >> projects that were dismissed at $2,000 goals, but they work at $3,700 or $3,500 gold. How do you treat them? Like, how do you >> That's where the value is now, right? You start because you're starting to see, you know, the the the value come down the, you know, the the the buying come down the food chain, right? the higher risk now, the higher risk companies, the optionality plays, right? They're starting to to move higher. And you you you you put up you bring up like a a monthly chart, a monthly uh uh 20-year chart of of the stock as if it's been around for the last 10 or you know, 15 20 years. And a and a lot of these these optionality plays have. you see that this this sharp move that they've had recently have gone up two, three, maybe four times off their lows. You you bring up the the 25-year chart, it's just a little blip. they still got a long way to go to where they were, you know, back in in even 2020 because we had that peak in 2020 and a lot of these juniors are still trading, you know, 50 60% below that peak in 2020 when gold was attempting to break out above 2000. I mean, and if you want a barometer, I know it's it's not uh a completely reliable barometer barometer because the TSX Venture is only about 50% junior resource companies, but if you if you take a look at a 25-year chart of the TSX Venture, it's got the most exciting chart pattern I've ever seen in in this sector in quite a while. You know, we've been in a bare market in the juniors for so long. And if you look at the last two decades, it's formed this really powerful inverse head and shoulders bottom. And it's and the TSX Venture is coming up right up to the neckline, which is about a thousand. And um even at a thousand, it's still 70 below 70% below its all-time high reached in 2007 when gold was attempting to get above a thousand. It got to 3,300 and change in 2007. So that is a very powerful base and from powerful bases come strong moves. So you know this this sector still has a long way to go considering how bad the bare market was in the past. I mean really bad bare markets always morph into really powerful bull markets and now we've got one. I'm battling investor questions already organizing road shows like oh this stock has doubled or tripled like should I even care and I was like wait a I can't really comment on the stock itself but have you looked at silver for example >> like we're at $44 an ounce now and those companies were producing at like 25 maybe >> they're they're printing cash now so >> I think we're just catching up without commenting on the stock itself but it's a it's an interesting like the discussions are definitely changing they're interesting dialogues I'm having with my investor community here um already. Um but David, just maybe as a followup in that regard as well, we we talked about, you know, establishing that price level and understanding where we're at in the cycle. We're looking at producers. We're looking at developers. But how about the pure play exploration stories? Like are we in that fi phase of the cycle where we should start allocating or maybe jumping in both feet first here into into the explorers now or should we still focus on the developers and producers because they're still catching up as as you said earlier uh Q3 uh VWOP for gold should be more like 35 3600 meaning two $300 higher than it was in Q2 even. >> Yeah, I mean that's that's that's a great question. I that's what I've been saying. You know, you know, the last few years, I haven't touched a drill play. You know, it hasn't made any sense to to get to get into drill plays when you have all these companies that have discovered all these ounces. They're sitting there on the ground and they're and they at the time they were trading at, you know, some were trading at less than $10 an ounce on the ground and um it just made no sense to to get into drill plays. Now, if you're looking for for multibagger potential, I mean, it it does make sense to have a few of these drill plays in your portfolio. Um, so, you know, that I at Beaver Creek, I I spoke with a few and also copper. You know, I I the last um junior that I recommended was uh a pea stage copper junior. So, I I do like copper also. Uh but yeah, I mean, now is a good time. But you got to understand, I mean, it's higher risk for the higher reward. Um, you know, these these drill plays are, you know, are extremely risky. But, you know, if you've got a bunch of winners and you've taken your investment capital out of out of the winners and you're looking for something to to play around with with some high risk and high reward, that's a great place to to go. >> David, you sound a bit greedy to me, you know. Um but um maybe as a as a >> No, no, no. You know me, Kai. I mean, I'm I I preach risk management. That is that is job number one. You know, it's funny you say that. It's funny you say that because I I've been >> I did some interviews with with Corey at at uh Corland Economic. You know, I do a weekly show, a weekly interview with him. And um I did one a couple weeks ago about taking some profits. you know, I have a I have a a a a riskmanagement profit taking, you know, rules. I have rules that I live by, you know, and one of them is once, you know, I I won't get into a junior unless I see at least three times upside potential, you know, uh preferably three to 10 times upside potential. That's what I'm looking for. So, it makes sense to me that once I'm lucky enough, fortunate enough to get a three a a threeagger, I will sell one-third to take my investment off the table. And I was I was telling that to his his audience and I was getting all these com what's this guy selling for? He's crazy. To the moon, Alice. These stocks are going to go, you know, I mean, I've been in this sector over 20 years, right? I've I've experienced two major rug pulls and that was the 2008 financial crisis and and and the the pandemic spike low, right? Where, you know, especially 2007 because, you know, I I'd sold my house in in 2005 and I did something crazy stupid and put everything in juniors and I and I and I got fortunate because my my account tripled and at the time I really didn't know what I was doing and I of course confused a bull market with brains thought I was a genius. I took some money off the table in 2007, but not enough. So, I learned from that mistake and then two thou and then pandemic wasn't nearly as bad. Um, so but but you know, I I've been trimming some profits on the way up here. So, no guy, I'm not greedy. I'm not a pig. I know that bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered, especially in the junior sector. >> No, I I f I hear you. I'm actually sitting on quite a bit of cash right now. >> Yeah, me too. uh trying to figure out what to do with it quite honestly. Uh waiting for maybe some interesting placement opportunities or something like that. But I'm I'm sort of regretting like I I sold portions of my portfolio that went ran really well right before the Fed meeting last Monday, Tuesday just to as you said like risk manage a little bit and I've seen the rug pulls but of course I'm regretting it because like why am I fighting a bull market right now? I'm fighting momentum. Right. So in terms of risk >> you're fighting your emotions, right? You're fighting especially your past emotions. you got if you still got your bare market hat on, you know, and subconsciously and you're like, >> I touched the stock >> I don't want to leave a bunch of profits on the table, so I'm going to take some. There's nothing wrong with that. As long as you don't sell your core position, you're good. >> Yeah. No, that's that's that's exactly it. Like we're we're in this massive upward trend. Yes. Massively overbought, but I think there's lots of momentum still left. Um especially now with Q3 ending, and we can maybe touch on that for a second as well. Sure. that we're just getting more momentum like the the the funds or the the generalists are just coming in starting to understand >> because because what's making all-time highs along with with with gold and the miners the stock market the NASDAQ the S&P 500 you know and what's been the darling of the market AI stocks NASDAQ tech stocks that continue to make all-time highs so why should we get safe with gold stocks um that that's the generalist thinking still so we still have that down the road we still have that investment capital that is going to eventually start to come into our sector when they're looking for some safety. >> They're coming. They're coming. I hear them. Like one of my my dentist actually bought a mining stock the other day and I was quite pissed. >> Oh, your dentist bought a mining stock. Hey, that is Yeah. >> Uh >> when he starts giving you tips though, that's a top, right? >> That's that's dangerous. And but but she's up 30% or so with it and she's super happy. But I was like, like I've been doing this for 15 years and you don't even reach out and ask me. I >> I know. I got friends like that, too. They know what I do. They're like, he's that crazy gold bug guy. He doesn't he's he's nuts. >> But now they're asking me questions, right? Hey, you must be doing pretty good with gold stocks now, huh? >> No, exactly. So, we'll see where it goes. But David, maybe a bit of parting advice here. Um, if you were to put a bow around this, like what what should investors do, let's say, until the end of the year, like what are you looking at? Well, it all depends, you know, in on your in your situation. You know, if you're sitting on a ton of profits in in gold stocks, by all means, you know, you should be trimming some here. Um, and then wait if you want to deploy more, wait for the correction or fall, you know, but but you want to what you want to do is you want to have a watch list. You have a a wellthoughtout um well researched watch list. You know, you've talked to the companies, you know, you like this stock, but you think it's is still too little too expensive. you have a price where you want to start nibbling and start accumulating a position. That's what you need to do. If if if if that if that is what you're looking to do is is is to to go down the the the risk, you know, the high-risisk ladder and get into some higher risk companies, you know, you have some earlier stage companies, you know, PE stage or mineral resource stage or even drill plays that you want to get into. That's that's that's the way I do it. You know, I have a I have a a watch list for my subscribers of of 20 juniors that I've prevetted. You know, I've talked to all the companies. I like them. I've had com I've had stocks on my watch list for years before I bought them. So, um that that that's always been a good strategy for me. Have a watch list available because, you know, we're you know, trees don't go to the go to the sky and neither do gold stocks. So, they're eventually going to have a correction and when they do, you want to be prepared to get into the right ones. And to do that, that's that's a good strategy. >> Huddle diamond hands to the moon. Right. Let's go. >> Well, you know, silver. You brought up silver. I mean, I don't know of Do you know of any commodity that's still 15% lower than it was in 1980? >> Not really. No. >> Not really. No. >> Not really. No. H that's that's a whole different story because those silver juniors or miners are flying. Absolutely. So >> yeah, but there's but there's a lot of garbage out there. You got to make sure you're being in the right because right now pigs are flying. So you don't want to get into a pig. You wanted to get you wanted to get in to get into a quality junior and in silver juniors there's not that many quality silver juniors. You really got to do your homework. >> Do your risk management. Absolutely. David, what a wonderful conversation. As I say, I always say when we chat by we could chat for hours. There's so much fun to be had here in this sector and we're finally having fun again. um which is very very important and fun to see. Um where can we send our audience? Where can they follow your work, David? >> Um I put out a a column on Kitco comes out on Fridays and also my website is junior minor junkie with a y.com. >> Fantastic. Awesome. David, always a pleasure to have you on. I tremendously enjoy our chats. Really, really appreciate it. And it was really good to see you. >> Same here. Always great to see you. Always great to talk to you. um you know, best of luck to your audience and best of luck to you and in your new ventures. I know you you got a new one going on. So, best of luck with that. >> Appreciate that. Thank you so much, David. And to everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Let us know, how are you managing risk in the space right now? Are you letting your winners run? Are you taking money off the table? When are you taking money off the table? I personally think that the once it doubles, you take half off. I don't know if that still is the right way to do it personally, and that's not advice. that is just seeing momentum and maybe being a bit uh jealous of almost selling some of my positions maybe a tad too early. So um really curious what you're doing in this space and this sector. How are you handling it? Really curious. Put that down below. We'll include that in our next conversation with David and other guests as well. So thanks so much for tuning in and we'll be back with lots more out there. Take care out there. [Music]
FED CUTS & GOLD: Wildest Gold Run Ever, $4500 Is Next | David Erfle
Summary
Transcript
Gold is trading near all-time high levels. Silver is at 14-year highs. The GDX is at all-time highs as well. It's getting scary out there. I have to admit, I'm looking at these price levels, and I'm wondering like how much is left in the tank. And should we be should we be hedging? Now, I've invited a phenomenal guest today to the program. It's David Erley. He's the junior minor junkie. And we'll we'll dissect market dynamics a little bit. We'll take a look at gold and silver, of course, uh but also the mining stocks, like how much runway is left, where we at in the cycle. Is this time different? Because the GDX is massively overbought if you look at the RSI, but we've never traded at $3,750 an ounce. So, are the old metrics still uh accurate? Should we still use those old metrics to make our valuations, predictions here? Before I switch over to my guest, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and uh we much much appreciate it. Did I mention it's free as well? Please do it. Thank you so much. Now, David, it is great to welcome you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Hey, Kai, great to see you again as well. I It was also great to see you in person at Beaver Creek. It It was It was a fantastic show. >> Absolutely. Yeah, tremendously appreciate it. Like, it was great to have dinner uh one of the nights and just just catch up and shoot the shoot I can't say that, can I? Just uh just just chat. No, but David, we we need to get a bit of a reality check here. Um, let's maybe start at the at the top, but gold, silver, um, gold gold in particular, 3750, uh, it's trading near all-time high levels. When ruckle, like how worried are you about the current price development? What is priced in? Give us a quick overview. >> Yeah, it's it's pretty incredible now that we're in a bull market. You know, we were we had our bare market caps on for, you know, for the last two years in 23 and 24 as far as the mining sector was concerned. We were, you know, we're always wondering where the bottom was on on corrections. And now we're wondering where the top is during these impulse moves. And this impulse move is super strong, Kai. I mean, this is the strongest impulse move I've seen in this segment. I've been in the sector for over 20 years now and I haven't seen one this strong and this overbought technically. Um it's really incredible and like you said it's it's getting a little scary as to as to as to how we wonder when the where the where the interim top is going to be and that's what it is going to be likely is an interimm top not a major um top. So, it's really uh interesting how how this has played out. You know, um we had um first we had the the gold price break out of a 13-year cup and handle pattern. That's the most powerful technical pattern in technical analysis. And when it broke above 2100, the the gold price has pretty much not let up. And it's it's it's it nearly it it hit uh 38.25 uh in the in the futures market uh yesterday. And if you take a look at the recent consolidation, it was nearly five months. And what gold has been doing is it is it is it makes a nice up strong up leg and then it consolidates inside of a symmetrical triangle which is a bullish consolidation pattern which makes lower highs and higher lows into an apex. And then once it reached that apex, it breaks out. And that's what it's done recently after hitting $3,500 an ounce uh back in a in uh April. And um then we had this nearly fivemon consolidation and it's broken out. And that the the the technical target of that breakout is 3850 to 4,000. And like I said, the the December futures nearly hit it this week at at 38.25. We're starting to to see uh some pullback today as the the market is awaiting uh uh PCE inflation uh numbers from from the US and also the final US GD uh Q2 GDP number this week. But um you know I've never seen um a stronger wind for the for the for the gold price to the upside uh since I've been in this sector over 20 years. Yeah, I'm I'm really jealous of everybody who's coming new into this market because they look at it with a fresh set of eyes here and as you said like we got the bare market mindset still and uh it was one of my takeaways from Beaver Creek perhaps and I'm working on this still but I need to understand that this is a new a new paradigm like we're in a new price environment we've seen it in Q2 with a record free cash flows but also in terms of valuations we need to get used to the fact that 3,700 might be here to stay or even 35 500 which I'm still happy with. Okay. Um but this is a new valuation paradigm. The question is like is there anything that could sort of change that yet again? Like are we is there still a reason to be negative right now? If that makes sense. >> Well, you know, I really don't see uh a bearish headwind for the gold price out there other than that than than technically having some, you know, short to intermediate term profit taking. But like I said, I I expect that 3850 to 4,000 target to be hit first before we see some some, you know, some extended profit taking. Um, you know, we're starting to see uh uh, you know, uh, the gold price start to run away almost like in in 1979. As a matter of fact, it's made 37 new fresh all-time highs this year, and it's first time it's done that since 1979. Um, in 1979, I was just a a teenager, but I remember going through my father's change looking for for silver uh dimes and quarters, and I still have those today. And um, as the the silver as the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market, and silver went I think it it peaked at $50.36 was the ultimate peak. And, you know, um, and then 2011, it revisited that that peak again. But as far as the gold price is concerned, you know, the gold price, um, it went it went from $35 an ounce when Nixon took us off the gold standard in 71 to $200 an ounce, I think, by like 1975. And then it had this 50% correction. Everybody thought it was all over. And then it moved from $100 to $400 by late 1979. And then we had this blowoff top up move that was incredible. It went from $400 to $850 and I think it was six six or seven weeks when we had the Iran um hostage crisis coupled with Russia rolling into Afghanistan. So it was geopolitical it was geopolitical um uh reasons why the gold price went from 400 to a to a blowoff top at 850. And we have all those same things happening here that we did back in in in the late 70s, right? But but but it but back then um the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates at a rapid pace. I think it got to like 19% in 1980. But now the Federal Reserve just announced a an e another easing cycle in the face of rising inflation. That's what gold is really rising on here now because the Federal Reserve has been has been, you know, has been touting this fantasy 2% target they're trying to reach and now they've basically caved on on that inflation target because inflation is about 3% right now. So, they're lowering rates in the face of rising inflation and it's telling the market, "Hey, maybe Pal was starting to listen to Trump who keeps hammering at him to lower rates." You know, Trump is has has been filling the the Federal Reserve with with with loyalists. He just um put in um uh uh Stephen Mirren as a Fed governor right before the Fed uh announced uh uh uh an easing cycle, the easing cycle. So, he wanted to to lower 50 basis points. You know, he was the lone member that wanted to lower 50 basis points. But there were other members that didn't want to raise at all. Some members only want to raise one or two times more this. They're all over the place. And that shows a loss of faith and confidence in not only the govern the US government but the Federal Reserve and the and and investors are losing faith and confidence in the government as the debt continues to spiral out of control and they're doing nothing about it. What a matter of fact they're adding to it. So I mean the last monthly budget deficit in one month was 358 billion. I mean, back in in the late 70s when they were raising interest rates to try to tame inflation, they were able to do it because debt to GDP was only 35% and our and the national debt had had just reached a trillion. And now just our budget deficit alone for a year is two trillion. So the world is seeing that, hey, these central banks continue to borrow with no intention to pay anything back. The debt's going to get worse. Central banks are going to keep buying gold. Hey, may maybe I better get on board to buy gold. Also, I mean, last Friday, the GLD had its largest inflow in one day in its 21-year history of $2.2 billion dollar. >> Nice. Nice. We like seeing that. Um because that means there's more to come potentially as well. Um because inflows have been, you know, far and few between. Like the GDX is still seeing outflows to a degree despite its rising price. It's it's mind-blowing if you look at it. People are still liquidating that position here. Um, run us a bit through it because I've cued the chart here for uh the GDX. Let's take a look at this as well real quick. Um, let me add it to the screen here. But GDX is at all-time high level. It's 22 horn, doesn't it? >> Like what do you make of this? Like how overbought are we here? And how long can we stay overbought? >> I mean, I've been trimming for the past month, you know? I mean, I you know, I have a I have a retirement account that I also share with my sub subscribers along with my junior account and it's it's got gold stocks that, you know, I've made so much money on and have have done so well. I've been trimming and um they just keep going higher because they're they're still catching up to the gold price. I mean, when you you look at that high back in 2011, that was when gold was trying to was attempting to break out above just 1900. So, you know, now we're we're at we're we're we're closing in on 4,000. I mean, Canadian gold's at $5,200 an ounce. So, you know, I mean, the gold price is breaking out in all currencies. It's a full-blown bull market. And yet, if you look at the gold stocks in relation to the gold price, they still have a lot of catching up to do. Short-term, they're wildly overbought like like you've mentioned, and they're due for a pullback. you know, it's I've been saying that for the past month that they're due for a pullback, but it just they they just keep going higher. U and I and I still believe there's a lot of people on the sidelines waiting to get in because if you take a look at the the loan chart, the loan stock in the S&P 500 is Pneumont, right? >> It is trounced every other major gainers in the S&P 500 this year. It's up I think it's up 120% this year and yet it's hardly mentioned in the mainstream media. You turn on MSNBC, they don't mention it. Sure, you're starting to hear mentions of the gold price, you know, making these all-time highs and saying, "But hey, Trump's economy, they're, you know, he he he announced a golden age, but he didn't think that they were going to start buying gold so much because of because of their fearing of of his policies and tariffs and everything. So the gold price has been mentioned as going up, but the loan, you know, the lone gold stock in the S&P 500 going up 120%, that's not really mentioned. And if you look at the volume, it's really not that out of control. So I I still think there's a lot of money on the sidelines waiting to get in. They're waiting for that for that rug to be pulled. They're waiting for that weakness to come in. And once the weakness has been coming in recently, it's is it's bought almost automatically. I mean, last week on Tuesday, right before Fed speak, right? We had the gold stocks were being hit with a gold price and silver price were still up. So, we're thinking, okay, we're finally going to start to see some weakness. You know, the Fed's going to announce a 25 basis point rate cut. It's going to be expected. It's going to be sell the news. They were buying the rumor that they were going to start easing again, so they're going to sell the news. And that's what happened. But then on Friday, we had a huge move to the upside. The weakness was immediately bought. And then this Monday it can it was continuing to be bought. So you know these these this weakness continues to be bought. So um I I mean it's it's as far as waiting to get in. Sure, wait for weakness, but um look at what you want to look at is you want to look at valuations in relation to the gold price. Like you mentioned, we have to start factoring then in that hey the gold price is higher. It's going to there's a there's a solid $3,000 floor now. And if and a lot of these economic studies that that a lot of these these companies have been doing that have been derisking these projects, they're using $2,000 gold or less on their economic studies. Sure, some have raised to to 24500, but still that's still pretty low considering that we now have a $3,000 gold floor. Yeah, I've been mentioning it here on this show as well, like the majors, for example, when they do their reserve calculations, I think, and I haven't checked in the last two weeks. Uh, but they're still sitting at 16 or $1,700 an ounce. They've already increased it, but just a little bit, right? So, they're not at 3,000. Like, what does that do? Because there's also some negative implications if they do that. Meaning, they don't necessarily have to go out and do M&A. And maybe as an example, Bareric um sort of unearthed for a mile within their portfolio. I think the market has been completely asleep on it. Like I don't follow the majors too closely, meaning like I was a bit surprised to see that updated PA that shook the market and the stock just jumped 20% within like two three days. Um but what do you make of that impact potentially and maybe we even uh the barrack story here as well and the unearthing of potential within the portfolio when it comes to the M&A cycle here? >> Yeah, you would think that would keep uh investors skeptical, right? that if these guys think that gold is gonna is going to eventually come back down to this price, then why we should why should we be buying their stock? And also, you've seen Agniko, you saw Ken Ross this week. Um, you saw you saw them uh sell their positions in in uh juniors. Um, I think Agniko sold their position in Ora. Kin Ross just sold their position in uh Asante. And there was another that I that I saw that that sold a sold a position in Ora. forget the the other company, but you know, you don't want to see that. You want to see majors investing in in these juniors. You want to see them taking strategic positions because eventually they're going to they're going to have to start replacing these ounces. And to do that, they're going to they're going to want to be doing it on Bay Street as opposed to as as opposed to uh trying to start these project start new projects themselves or or explore the projects they already have. It's a lot easier to to go out and and acquire an undervalued junior that is a latestage junior or or a single asset producer uh you know to to add to your ounces because you know they've already shored up their balance sheets. Check they're they're paying healthy dividends for the first time in I you know when I first got into this sector a gold stock dividend was unheard of over 20 years ago and and they're also buying back shares. So what's next on the agenda is replacing ounces. That's what investors want. >> Yeah. And that the question is like will they though or are they just going to rerate or revalue the ounces they already have which are near mine, easy to get to? And I'm I'm generalizing here. Every asset is different of course and you can't really >> Yeah. And or consolidate within themselves, right? Mergers of equals. >> Exactly. But the question is, do we really need a push for M&A at this price level? Because all of a sudden marginal allowances become very economic. And I think that's one of the trends. Maybe we can discuss that real quick, David, as well. We're seeing a lot of financings being overs subscribed. And one of the CEOs in Beaver Creek told me, he's like, "Well, Kai, at 2,000, this project was not economic at all. At 3,600, we got this high-grade pocket. We'll just print cash." And that's I'm paraphrasing a little bit, but that's pretty much what he said in just as many words. >> So, and that that financing has been over subscribed three times. They raised they could have raised $100 million if they wanted to. Yeah, that financing window is wide open now, right? And so you're going to you're going to see these huge drilling, you know, programs, you know, um labs are going to be backed up again. Um yeah, I mean it's the money is is flowing generously in this sector finally and that and and that's what we need. But is when you're but when you're talking about M&A, I mean, a a lot of these companies that are um de-risking these later stage projects that that that are near-term takeover candidates, you know, they've reached the finance stage or they've even financed, they're waiting for a permit or they've even begun construction. um these are takeover targets, but their share prices, they're still trading, you know, at less than a couple hundred ounces of dollar gold in the ground. In some pl in some cases, even less than $100 an ounce in the ground. And as if you you recall during the the last bull market in 2011, companies were being bought out at a, $1,200 an ounce in the ground with a gold price at $1,800. So, you know, we got a long way to go before we see a mania M&A phase. I saw a a really good interview with Ross Beatty recently. And he said that he didn't expect to see M&A really ramp up that much in in in the in the short to to intermediate term. And as far as I'm concerned, you know, as an investor and a newsletter writer that's recommending these stocks that that that we have in our portfolio, you know, mo many of them have already tripled and some have have gone up even more. Um, we don't want to see M&A we don't want to see our our juniors acquired just yet. We we'd rather see them run a lot more on their own before they do. >> Abs. Absolutely. Like you don't want to sell too early, but you want to participate in the upside. I actually have the occasional 10bagger in my portfolio. >> Yeah. It's like what is this? Like it's green and then you flick it. It's like it doesn't move and it's okay. Great. >> Yes. We got a 10bagger in our portfolio right now. It's a monster. It just keeps montage gold. It just keeps rising. >> Yeah. >> There there's sector corrections and this stock just keeps bifurcating and going higher. >> Yeah. Montage Gold don't care, you know. Yeah. >> Montage don't care, you know. It's just like Honeybadger don't care. Montage don't care. They just It just goes. >> Yeah. >> No, but um David, coming back to like maybe the the uh for lack of better term, it's not really optionality plays, but >> projects that were dismissed at $2,000 goals, but they work at $3,700 or $3,500 gold. How do you treat them? Like, how do you >> That's where the value is now, right? You start because you're starting to see, you know, the the the value come down the, you know, the the the buying come down the food chain, right? the higher risk now, the higher risk companies, the optionality plays, right? They're starting to to move higher. And you you you you put up you bring up like a a monthly chart, a monthly uh uh 20-year chart of of the stock as if it's been around for the last 10 or you know, 15 20 years. And a and a lot of these these optionality plays have. you see that this this sharp move that they've had recently have gone up two, three, maybe four times off their lows. You you bring up the the 25-year chart, it's just a little blip. they still got a long way to go to where they were, you know, back in in even 2020 because we had that peak in 2020 and a lot of these juniors are still trading, you know, 50 60% below that peak in 2020 when gold was attempting to break out above 2000. I mean, and if you want a barometer, I know it's it's not uh a completely reliable barometer barometer because the TSX Venture is only about 50% junior resource companies, but if you if you take a look at a 25-year chart of the TSX Venture, it's got the most exciting chart pattern I've ever seen in in this sector in quite a while. You know, we've been in a bare market in the juniors for so long. And if you look at the last two decades, it's formed this really powerful inverse head and shoulders bottom. And it's and the TSX Venture is coming up right up to the neckline, which is about a thousand. And um even at a thousand, it's still 70 below 70% below its all-time high reached in 2007 when gold was attempting to get above a thousand. It got to 3,300 and change in 2007. So that is a very powerful base and from powerful bases come strong moves. So you know this this sector still has a long way to go considering how bad the bare market was in the past. I mean really bad bare markets always morph into really powerful bull markets and now we've got one. I'm battling investor questions already organizing road shows like oh this stock has doubled or tripled like should I even care and I was like wait a I can't really comment on the stock itself but have you looked at silver for example >> like we're at $44 an ounce now and those companies were producing at like 25 maybe >> they're they're printing cash now so >> I think we're just catching up without commenting on the stock itself but it's a it's an interesting like the discussions are definitely changing they're interesting dialogues I'm having with my investor community here um already. Um but David, just maybe as a followup in that regard as well, we we talked about, you know, establishing that price level and understanding where we're at in the cycle. We're looking at producers. We're looking at developers. But how about the pure play exploration stories? Like are we in that fi phase of the cycle where we should start allocating or maybe jumping in both feet first here into into the explorers now or should we still focus on the developers and producers because they're still catching up as as you said earlier uh Q3 uh VWOP for gold should be more like 35 3600 meaning two $300 higher than it was in Q2 even. >> Yeah, I mean that's that's that's a great question. I that's what I've been saying. You know, you know, the last few years, I haven't touched a drill play. You know, it hasn't made any sense to to get to get into drill plays when you have all these companies that have discovered all these ounces. They're sitting there on the ground and they're and they at the time they were trading at, you know, some were trading at less than $10 an ounce on the ground and um it just made no sense to to get into drill plays. Now, if you're looking for for multibagger potential, I mean, it it does make sense to have a few of these drill plays in your portfolio. Um, so, you know, that I at Beaver Creek, I I spoke with a few and also copper. You know, I I the last um junior that I recommended was uh a pea stage copper junior. So, I I do like copper also. Uh but yeah, I mean, now is a good time. But you got to understand, I mean, it's higher risk for the higher reward. Um, you know, these these drill plays are, you know, are extremely risky. But, you know, if you've got a bunch of winners and you've taken your investment capital out of out of the winners and you're looking for something to to play around with with some high risk and high reward, that's a great place to to go. >> David, you sound a bit greedy to me, you know. Um but um maybe as a as a >> No, no, no. You know me, Kai. I mean, I'm I I preach risk management. That is that is job number one. You know, it's funny you say that. It's funny you say that because I I've been >> I did some interviews with with Corey at at uh Corland Economic. You know, I do a weekly show, a weekly interview with him. And um I did one a couple weeks ago about taking some profits. you know, I have a I have a a a a riskmanagement profit taking, you know, rules. I have rules that I live by, you know, and one of them is once, you know, I I won't get into a junior unless I see at least three times upside potential, you know, uh preferably three to 10 times upside potential. That's what I'm looking for. So, it makes sense to me that once I'm lucky enough, fortunate enough to get a three a a threeagger, I will sell one-third to take my investment off the table. And I was I was telling that to his his audience and I was getting all these com what's this guy selling for? He's crazy. To the moon, Alice. These stocks are going to go, you know, I mean, I've been in this sector over 20 years, right? I've I've experienced two major rug pulls and that was the 2008 financial crisis and and and the the pandemic spike low, right? Where, you know, especially 2007 because, you know, I I'd sold my house in in 2005 and I did something crazy stupid and put everything in juniors and I and I and I got fortunate because my my account tripled and at the time I really didn't know what I was doing and I of course confused a bull market with brains thought I was a genius. I took some money off the table in 2007, but not enough. So, I learned from that mistake and then two thou and then pandemic wasn't nearly as bad. Um, so but but you know, I I've been trimming some profits on the way up here. So, no guy, I'm not greedy. I'm not a pig. I know that bulls make money, bears make money, and pigs get slaughtered, especially in the junior sector. >> No, I I f I hear you. I'm actually sitting on quite a bit of cash right now. >> Yeah, me too. uh trying to figure out what to do with it quite honestly. Uh waiting for maybe some interesting placement opportunities or something like that. But I'm I'm sort of regretting like I I sold portions of my portfolio that went ran really well right before the Fed meeting last Monday, Tuesday just to as you said like risk manage a little bit and I've seen the rug pulls but of course I'm regretting it because like why am I fighting a bull market right now? I'm fighting momentum. Right. So in terms of risk >> you're fighting your emotions, right? You're fighting especially your past emotions. you got if you still got your bare market hat on, you know, and subconsciously and you're like, >> I touched the stock >> I don't want to leave a bunch of profits on the table, so I'm going to take some. There's nothing wrong with that. As long as you don't sell your core position, you're good. >> Yeah. No, that's that's that's exactly it. Like we're we're in this massive upward trend. Yes. Massively overbought, but I think there's lots of momentum still left. Um especially now with Q3 ending, and we can maybe touch on that for a second as well. Sure. that we're just getting more momentum like the the the funds or the the generalists are just coming in starting to understand >> because because what's making all-time highs along with with with gold and the miners the stock market the NASDAQ the S&P 500 you know and what's been the darling of the market AI stocks NASDAQ tech stocks that continue to make all-time highs so why should we get safe with gold stocks um that that's the generalist thinking still so we still have that down the road we still have that investment capital that is going to eventually start to come into our sector when they're looking for some safety. >> They're coming. They're coming. I hear them. Like one of my my dentist actually bought a mining stock the other day and I was quite pissed. >> Oh, your dentist bought a mining stock. Hey, that is Yeah. >> Uh >> when he starts giving you tips though, that's a top, right? >> That's that's dangerous. And but but she's up 30% or so with it and she's super happy. But I was like, like I've been doing this for 15 years and you don't even reach out and ask me. I >> I know. I got friends like that, too. They know what I do. They're like, he's that crazy gold bug guy. He doesn't he's he's nuts. >> But now they're asking me questions, right? Hey, you must be doing pretty good with gold stocks now, huh? >> No, exactly. So, we'll see where it goes. But David, maybe a bit of parting advice here. Um, if you were to put a bow around this, like what what should investors do, let's say, until the end of the year, like what are you looking at? Well, it all depends, you know, in on your in your situation. You know, if you're sitting on a ton of profits in in gold stocks, by all means, you know, you should be trimming some here. Um, and then wait if you want to deploy more, wait for the correction or fall, you know, but but you want to what you want to do is you want to have a watch list. You have a a wellthoughtout um well researched watch list. You know, you've talked to the companies, you know, you like this stock, but you think it's is still too little too expensive. you have a price where you want to start nibbling and start accumulating a position. That's what you need to do. If if if if that if that is what you're looking to do is is is to to go down the the the risk, you know, the high-risisk ladder and get into some higher risk companies, you know, you have some earlier stage companies, you know, PE stage or mineral resource stage or even drill plays that you want to get into. That's that's that's the way I do it. You know, I have a I have a a watch list for my subscribers of of 20 juniors that I've prevetted. You know, I've talked to all the companies. I like them. I've had com I've had stocks on my watch list for years before I bought them. So, um that that that's always been a good strategy for me. Have a watch list available because, you know, we're you know, trees don't go to the go to the sky and neither do gold stocks. So, they're eventually going to have a correction and when they do, you want to be prepared to get into the right ones. And to do that, that's that's a good strategy. >> Huddle diamond hands to the moon. Right. Let's go. >> Well, you know, silver. You brought up silver. I mean, I don't know of Do you know of any commodity that's still 15% lower than it was in 1980? >> Not really. No. >> Not really. No. >> Not really. No. H that's that's a whole different story because those silver juniors or miners are flying. Absolutely. So >> yeah, but there's but there's a lot of garbage out there. You got to make sure you're being in the right because right now pigs are flying. So you don't want to get into a pig. You wanted to get you wanted to get in to get into a quality junior and in silver juniors there's not that many quality silver juniors. You really got to do your homework. >> Do your risk management. Absolutely. David, what a wonderful conversation. As I say, I always say when we chat by we could chat for hours. There's so much fun to be had here in this sector and we're finally having fun again. um which is very very important and fun to see. Um where can we send our audience? Where can they follow your work, David? >> Um I put out a a column on Kitco comes out on Fridays and also my website is junior minor junkie with a y.com. >> Fantastic. Awesome. David, always a pleasure to have you on. I tremendously enjoy our chats. Really, really appreciate it. And it was really good to see you. >> Same here. Always great to see you. Always great to talk to you. um you know, best of luck to your audience and best of luck to you and in your new ventures. I know you you got a new one going on. So, best of luck with that. >> Appreciate that. Thank you so much, David. And to everybody else, thank you so much for tuning in. Let us know, how are you managing risk in the space right now? Are you letting your winners run? Are you taking money off the table? When are you taking money off the table? I personally think that the once it doubles, you take half off. I don't know if that still is the right way to do it personally, and that's not advice. that is just seeing momentum and maybe being a bit uh jealous of almost selling some of my positions maybe a tad too early. So um really curious what you're doing in this space and this sector. How are you handling it? Really curious. Put that down below. We'll include that in our next conversation with David and other guests as well. So thanks so much for tuning in and we'll be back with lots more out there. Take care out there. [Music]