Sign up for STLLR’s exclusive Gold Macro Newsletter at http://stllrgold.com/davidlin. Review their cautionary statements and risk …
Transcript
It's Fed day. Uh the Fed held rates steady. We're going to reexamine why the Fed did what they did. What's next for the Fed? What's next for markets? Extraordinary day for the markets today right after the FOMC meeting uh was concluded. But actually all throughout the day, gold's been climbing. Probably biggest single day climb in I don't know exactly number of years. I'm going to have to find that. But years it's up 6% in a day, which is unheard of practically for the precious metal. Uh, silver is at another new all-time high, briefly touching $117 an ounce. The S&P is flat. 6979 is my is on my screen. Bitcoin's flat. Uh, we're going to talk about what's next for the dollar. What all this means, what is the precious metals complex signaling right now for the global economy. Gareth Soloway joins us once more, president of Verified Investing. Gareth, it's always great to have you. What a crazy crazy time we live in today. Welcome back. >> You are not kidding. It is amazingly wild. I mean from the metals to the stock market to individual stocks um the dollar in movement there. I mean it is nuts. Uh David it is quite wild. >> I I want to I want to today's theme is basically when are markets topping. Uh that was basically the biggest takeaway from investor retail investor interest at least uh from having come back from a from a conference this past weekend. I was at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. I cannot tell you Gareth how many times just attendees of the conference came up to my booth personally and said hey thanks for uh doing your show we love Gareth in the show by the way uh but uh why is the market behaving the way they are and when can we start start taking profits so I'm going to ask you about that today uh take a listen to this particular question on the FOMC uh or at the FOMC rather it's about Japan I'll just start here I >> I wanted to ask you've talked in the past about concerns about about the US fiscal trajectory and we've seen in the Japanese bond market a lot of turmoil recently uh in part due to concerns over their their fiscal and and long-term economic outlook. So do you worry that the US could at some point find itself in a situ similar situation to Japan whether for fiscal or demographic reasons? [snorts] >> You know over time you've seen that US rates have remained pretty they haven't moved a lot really for a while but they haven't moved a lot uh because of what's been happening in Japan. Um, so it's more of an overtime thing. The US federal budget deficit is, you know, uncontroversially on an unsustainable path. The level of debt is not unsustainable. It's very much sustainable, but the path is unsustainable. And the sooner we work on it, the better. >> Okay. First of all, he's pretty much making an open attack on the Treasury, uh, which he doesn't typically do or is not typical of any Fed president, uh, Fed chair, rather. Uh but what what what do you make of his statements overall? >> Yeah. And so so number one, he's he's dead on. And I think almost everyone watching this video is going to agree with that. It's unsustainable. And it's probably one of the reasons, maybe the main reason why the metals are ripping like they are, specifically gold. And ultimately, we came into the year 2025 thinking there were going to be major fiscal responsibility things put into place. Doge was brought into play with Elon Musk and we don't even see it anymore. It's not even in existence. They actually dissolved it. Um, and now we see the government spending more money than ever before. And so this is the issue here, right? There's this fundamental fear amongst everyone, you, myself, and everyone watching that this is an unsustainable path. And us as Americans, us as global participants, we have to start to prepare. And how else to prepare but buy alternatives to the US dollar if this is the trajectory we're on. >> So why is Bitcoin not soaring to new all-time highs if Bitcoin is considered an alternative to the US dollar? >> It's a great question and it's one I'm dealing with myself, right? So I am a believer in Bitcoin. But Bitcoin right now, right, you would say, okay, well, is it a risk asset? Well, the stock market's at all-time highs. Bitcoin is not. It's near 52- week lows. Well, okay, then is it the digital gold? Well, gold's at all-time highs. Bitcoin is not. It's near 52- week uh lows. Bitcoin is at an existential crossroads. It needs to figure itself out because then what is it? And the reason this has to and there's a lot of Bitcoiners out there, hodlers out there that are going to say, "Oh, well, it's a little bit of this, a little bit of that." But when you're talking to the masses out there, the people that are buying in their ETFs, the ETF in their portfolios, they need to know, pension funds need to know, right? Is it a way to protect capital or is it a risk asset? And without that, you're not going to get the next wave of buyers. And so, we have to figure this out as as people that believe in Bitcoin to figure out what it is. And it has to start behaving like that. Yeah. Okay. Let's go back to Bitcoin in just a minute and talk about key levels. Let's talk about key levels of gold and silver. Silver, I'm seeing all over the internet, is behaving like a meme stock. That's what people are saying. That's not my That's not my verbiage, but let's start with gold. Um, yeah, you got the chart there. Anytime something moves parabolic, it's bound to move parabolic the other way. That's what you taught us all throughout these years. And yet, >> the truth, the question is when, right? And timing is always key. And listen, just because it's gone up so much, it generally because things are fundamentally shifting in the global sphere and in the US, it's probably not going to parabolically drop as much, but you will have a flush out. That's what we know from technical analysis. Now, the bigger question is where, right? I would have thought it would have been this pierce of 2,000 uh excuse me, $5,000 per ounce. We have not seen that yet. Now, what we can do is go to the logarithmic chart and start to take a look here and see. So, I flipped it to the logarithmic chart and we go back here. And what we do is if we flip over to a larger time frame, we start to notice that again you had this incredible move in the 1970s into 1980, this long base, another incredible move here, and a consolidation base that was shorter. And by the way, think about this. So, and this is just a little side note, but it's fascinating. Look at how long the consolidation base was here. And look at how long the consolidation base was here. Much shorter in the 2010 to 20 range. Now, why? Ask yourself why. Because here, this is where we actually had fiscal responsibility. We actually had a balanced budget at one point. Here, no balanced budget. And the problem is is these down cycles in gold. if we continue on this trajectory are going to get shorter and shorter. So, wherever gold tops and I'm not going to pretend I know at this point it's going to be a much shorter bare period or consolidation period unless the fiscal uh restraint is restored. And that's that's really the key crux here, folks. I mean, it just comes down to people rushing to diversify to protect themselves. They're buying insurance on a sinking ship. We see the sh the ship sinking. We've got to buy insurance. Well, just from a technical perspective, how can we make the uh deduction that something is just on a runaway trade? In other words, once it breaks above a certain ceiling, there's no stopping it. Is that what gold is doing right now? Yes, it's it's in price discovery mode. Absolutely. Absolutely. And it and the thing is, you know, listen, when it does correct, we'll look back and say, "Oh, there was a signal there or there." But right now, I don't see it myself. I thought the PIC of 5,000 5100 would have been a little bit of that reversal. And then what we've seen here just in the last few days is more tariff threats come out. Um the Federal Reserve coming out with their statement and all that's happening is people saying, "Wow, I believe in the US financial system less and less and they're buying more and more." Now again, there will be a reversion on this trade. My guess is, and it's hard to know the top, but my guess is when we look at the reversion here, and let's take it off the logarithmic chart, is what we'll start to see is a retrace to a reasonable pullback level. Like right here, we could see on the move up, this is where we stalled out, which means when we do correct, this 4,300 likely becomes your next base point, right? That's where you're going to hold on to the major gains most likely and potentially turn up unless we see that fiscal responsibility built in. Now David, you remember in the I think it was uh 2013 or 2012, the countries like Italy, Greece, remember the market eventually imposes austerity by certain means. And I do think the US is going to face that within multiple years, maybe within 3 years, the markets themselves will start to impose austerity regardless of whether our political players do. >> The Hold on. What do you mean by austerity? Who's going to impose austerity? Not >> well. So, so for instance, is the who's going to control the long end of the yield curve, right? If we look at the 10-year yield, the 10-year yield has just broken out. Look at this. We had major resistance all along this area right in here and we kept on hitting it. Then we bull flagged and we broke out. Now, it's beginning to move up. And so, my point is austerity is put into into place by interest rates, right? When you have the long end which can't be controlled by the Federal Reserve and those interest rates start going up, it's literally going to make it so we are going to have to cut spending and get our fiscal house in order and really the rest of the world at some point will force us to as well by not buying our debt. Before we continue with the video, let's talk about a company that's building serious gold leverage for the long term. Our sponsor today, Stellar Gold, is sitting on three major Canadian projects. Tower and Colomac are among the largest undeveloped gold sites in the country. The tower project alone could be worth $2.5 billion after tax at a $3,200 gold price assumption. And the prices go higher, so does its value. Colum expands over 1,000 square kilometers of greenstone deposits and could be Canada's next big gold camp. They also have Holler Tailings, a cleanup project that could deliver near-term cash flow. Across all projects, they've drilled over 16 million ounces of gold, which would cost over $2 billion to replicate today. With a seasoned team, Stellar Gold is one company to watch. Scan the QR code here on screen or visit stellarold.com/davidlin to learn more. Okay. By the way, uh $6,000 gold is only a 9% move from current levels, assuming $5,500. Uh well, we're 5,400. So about 10% 11% move. We're up just 6% in one day, Gareth. So it's not like 6,000 is now out of the realm of possibility, which is I I didn't think I would say the sentence in January 2026, but here we are. So uh what is that the next key resistance level for you, Gareth? 6,000. >> Yeah, 6,000 at this point would be unless something changes, right? And so if we flip back to the gold chart here, um at this point again, if we look at certain trend lines, right, and I'm a trend line trader, is that you really don't have anything, right? We've gone through this level here. We've pushed through that. We had a parallel here of support which kind of mirrored this right here. And we've now blown through. And so this is the thing is when you get in price discovery, sometimes as a technician, you just have to step back and say, "Hey, listen. It'll go until it stalls. And once more sellers come out of the woodwork or something occurs, then it will have its dump and then I can start trading it again based on technicals." But right now, the technicals are out the window. >> Before we move on, let me just comment on this. Let's skip ahead to the future. Imagine, you know, we're in the future now and we're historians of the present, meaning we look back at what's going on today. We could have ascribed whatever narrative to what happened in 2011, uh, and then 2020 when gold peaked then and then, uh, 1980 when gold peaked then. Uh, how would you describe what's happening now to your future grandkids, Gareth? I mean, I would I would explain it like if if they understood what a memecoin was, I would [laughter] explain explain silver, not gold, but silver right now is more of a meme. You have the same verbiage as it'll never come down. It's a new, you know, new paradigm or or or you know, all of these kind of same things that are going on. And we could flip over to the silver chart to take a look. Silver had a good day today, but gold, interestingly enough, is the one that made a new all-time high. Silver did not quite make a new all-time high and still has a topping tail in the daily chart here. And this is again this is a technical reversal that we saw a couple days ago on silver that until we have a daily close above it that is now in stone as a top signal for silver. And again it could be negated tomorrow. I'll be watching. But at least in this situation, and it is so similar the same way, you know, if I ever say anything negative on silver, the attacks on YouTube, they are massive. Just like if I ever back in 2021 said something about like, you know, Dogecoin, if if I ever spoke against that, it was the same sort of psychological impact and reversal. Well, what other market indicators or uh consumer sentiment or perhaps even just investor sentiment indicators would you need to look at to give you a topping signal? You know, the old adage of the s the cab drivers telling you about buying silver probably. Are we there yet? >> So, I do think we're there um at least on silver. Gold is obviously harder to pinpoint. And I I'm a big holder of long-term gold. I've been a big holder for years. In fact, I think a couple years ago it was my top pick with you on your show at the end of the year. for performance back I think it was 2022 or 2023 but ultimately again the excitement around it has made it an overcrowded trade. A lot of what we call in the trading world is the weak hands. The weak hands are the ones that buy in late and then they expect to get rich quick. And again, you compare that to those of us that have held gold since 2015 or 2010 or 2019 where we were just like sitting there watching everything else go up and we're like, but we really understand the financial reason for holding gold here and now we're getting the the the payout, right? But those players that buy late that are doing it to get rich, those will be the ones that get flushed out. The rest will kind of it'll then start to head back higher and probably make new alltime highs. I still think it's going to 10,000. The question is in what year? Okay. What does the world look like at 10,000 gold? >> Oh man, the hard questions. You're bringing your agame today. Um, you know, at 10,000 in gold, I would assume u we are at a whole new scenario of dollar or ddollarization. I would think and I think honestly that's a big thing of what's going on right now. Now, if we look at the US dollar, we've just seen one of the biggest drops, in fact, the biggest drop in the DXY since the f the the tariffs were levied last March and April in a 7-day span, right? So, 7 days down like this. Now, part of this is intervention with Japan, right? We're trying to prop up there and you played that clip um from the FOMC uh press conference, but at the same time, you are at a pivotal road. Look at this on the DXY. This is scary, folks. So this is your financial crisis low on the dollar just as we were getting into the heat of the financial crisis. This was May 2000, May June 2008. And look at this zone of support. The dollar has been riding up. Now we've heard about DD dollarization for ages. But until this breaks, I'm not a real believer, but it's looking like it's getting ready to break. And once this breaks, there's probably no stopping the US dollar from depreciating, maybe as low as the financial crisis lows back to the low70s on the DXY. And that's a scary scenario because remember this is going to import inflation, folks. A weaker dollar when we import so much of our goods, it is going to bring inflation up. And then you look at copper, then you look at silver, palladium, platinum, all of these things, live cattle prices, all near all-time highs. Now listen, grains are still low. I still actually like those as a defensive play. But there is bubbling up inflation and I do think that's the kind of the the scary part for 2026 that could surprise the market, right? The economy, we heard from Jerome Powell today, the economy is hanging in there. It's still looking a little bit better. But what about inflation? Because I look everywhere and I'm seeing inflation bubbling up and I have a feeling everyone watching is seeing the same thing. >> Okay. Uh so once the dollar breaks down, what does that mean for let's just take the S&P 500 in particular? Uh does this have any impact on on on the stock markets? Yeah. So so again, it's going to have a big impact if it's in freef fall, right? So if we if we just inch down a little bit every month or so, it's going to have a very minimal impact. It's kind of like what do they say? you know, you you put a not I won't even get into it, but something in hot water and it and you heat the water and it's heating slowly, they don't realize it. But if you you know, obviously boiling water is a different story. But the idea here again is that the the dollar if it starts to break down significantly below the level we just discussed is going to bring this market in because again we are so reliant on the world buying our debt, right? And the dollar being the reserve currency, it is going to shake the fundamentals here. here and you can see here on the S&P let's go over this right so this is what's concerning me everyone listen what I think is so interesting is so many individual investors were coming to you and asking you is the market topping I don't know if they were talking about gold and silver or if the stock market but in relation to the stock market this is what's concerning look at where we are on this parallel here's your co low here's your bare market low here's your liberation selloff low right then you have your highs here perfect parallel look at where we are in fact the last time we touched it was in in October and we're now at a point, look at this trend line. Here's your liberation sell-off low. We drag it right up. We've broken this trend line and going into today, we are now basically at the underbelly of resistance or dual resistance trend lines. Now, you look at after hours, right? We look at Microsoft down on earnings. We look at Meta. Meta's up on earnings just a little bit. Let's see where Tesla Tesla's moving up. So, this is going to be interesting tomorrow to see who has more power here to keep the S&P rolling higher or starting to bring it down. But again, Microsoft seeing some selloff in the markets in the after hours here. >> Okay. Uh, you know, it's interesting how gold and silver gold and the stock markets have been moving together. and you think that the dollar is breaking down where when you think about what may happen to gold when a dollar when the dollar breaks down the way it has in the last couple weeks uh you would think that the gold surges the gold price surges which may partly explain why the two asset classes are moving the way they are but when the dollar moves down and the stock market goes down with it in this scenario what happens to gold is my question and I asked this because gold and the stock market have been moving in the exact same direction for quite some time now Gareth >> yep and so what I would expect is if we see a sudden drop a sharper breakdown in the dollar. The fear just if we all remember what happened in COVID right when COVID March of 2020 uh occurred we saw the stock market decline and gold also fell initially and that would be my expectation. So basically the idea is that fear permeates all and when people get very scared they sell everything to be safe and then once the dust settles they say all right let me start buying gold again because again this is a bullish sign. So again fear triggers the sell and then very quickly we saw gold and co recover and actually move up substantially. I would expect the same thing. So initially I think they fall together. Maybe that's where the correction comes in. when the stock market corrects, gold corrects as well. And then I think gold after a quick correction starts to regain and move higher. >> Okay. Uh key levels for the S&P 500 at this point. Uh we're almost at 7,000. What's next? Yeah. So, what I'm really watching is these two trend lines, right? We have the bigger parallel here going back to 2020 and this one from April of 2025. And you can see how it basically tagged each of these lows right through here before we broke down. Watch this zone right up here. Basically between 7,15 and 7,50. If the S&P can get above that, you now are in price discovery mode and we could see something all a move like we've seen in gold to the upside. If it gets rejected and we can't get above here at some point, path of least resistance is a much bigger move down. So really, we look at the mega caps reporting. We look at all these factors coming in. Inflation data is coming in the next few days. watch closely to see can the S&P get through this level. If it does, bulls continue to rule the roost. But if we can't get through this level in the next two weeks, I think you're looking at a 15 20% draw down in the stock market. >> Okay. Uh that brings down Bitcoin with it or no? >> Yes. Unfortunately, yes. Um Bitcoin is is again has performed horribly. Look at this trend line right here on Bitcoin. It's even broken short-term technical support. Today we saw again a rally on Bitcoin to the underbelly of this trend line and it got rejected is now flat on the day. But this again is a what we would refer to in technical analysis. This was a bare flag, right? A move down with a lot of sideways chop and now it's potentially broken as if it can't recapture 90,000. This is going down to 70,000. >> Okay. Uh Gareth, what are your favorite asset classes at this point then? >> Wow. So, I am a huge fan of some of these kind of defensive names. So, if we take a look, I'll show you a couple that I'm in myself. Look at Kagra. Kagra, look at this chart. It just broke out on the daily chart. Now, this isn't a an asset class. It's a specific stock. But I think you look at these value plays. You know, where where if we do start to struggle economically, are people going to go? They're going to go buy frozen food, right? The cheaper stuff. And we've just broken out on Kagra here of this downs sloping. Look at how compare this to some of the memory plays like a SanDisk way at the low end of the range. PE ratio forward PE of eight or nine low again in that respect. Pays a dividend. I think that's a great one. Craft hind KHC look at this beautiful move here. Chart is way beaten down and it's coming off of these lows. I think these are where you start to look for real value. China stocks were good. Remember, we talked about those about 6 12 months ago as being my favorite plays. Alibaba, BYU, they've all had massive runs at this point. So now it's getting harder and harder to find assets, right? I mean, even back then I was saying, well, gold is a great one. Now it's tough. I wouldn't be recommending myself. I'm not buying gold right up here. I'm not buying silver up here. Sure, on a pullback I will, but at this point it's being in cash or being in some of these. And you could say, "Oh, well, cash is depreciating." Sure. But even if the dollar loses two or three more percent but the stock market falls 20%. I would still rather be in cash and then move into stocks on a discount. >> You're not concerned about inflation. You're not concerned about gold signaling massive inflation, which is some what some people are saying. I'm not sure if that's what you think. >> Yeah. So, I do think it it signals an uptick in inflation, but I think it's more a story about fiscal irresponsibility, right? And basically alienating uh our allies, right? when you when you threaten eight nations with tariffs um over Greenland, you know, do you do we think that they're going to be like, "Oh, sure. We'll continue to hold all our dollars and we'll buy all your treasuries." No, they're going to be like, "Dude, I'm not going to buy all this." And what does that do? It then puts pressure. They start dumping dollars. We know that um countries like China have been dumping treasuries for a long period of time. this is going to continue and escalate even and that's where you really get into trouble here um with the markets with rates going up even potentially and and even to some extent inflation when the dollar comes down. >> Okay. Uh which do you not like maybe like the least >> asset class wise or securities wise sector wise? >> So I I would I would right now be staying away from parabolic moves like you know there's so much hype. This is this is the the chart of Seagate Technologies. It's it's if you look at the monthly chart, this has gone since April from $60 to $450. These charts are not healthy. This is very Alla Silver right now as well. It's not that I don't think Seagate or silver are great assets to own, just not at this price, right? You give me Seagate back at 250, you give me silver back at $70 an ounce, now we're talking. But at these levels, these parabolic moves, they do come crashing down. We just don't know how high they go first. the uh US 10-year yield has been rising for uh the last two years now. It's been rangebound. How do you feel about bonds, especially the Treasury? >> Yeah. So, I I think bonds you have to at least on the long end here. Um the Fed is going to try to control it. Um I would remind people that even though we're going to get a new Fed chair in May, I believe he it's still a voting factor. So, if Jerome Pal stays on that board and and again, inflation starts to inch up, don't be surprised if it looks less likely that we're going to get the rate cuts that everyone's already writing in post Jerome Pal's tenure. And again, this chart here, as long as we stay above 4.2% on the 10-year, this is a bullish breakout, which signals higher longend yields are coming here. >> Okay. Uh the uh the other question I have for you is oil. Let's let's just finish up in oil before we wrap up. Uh oil is trending lower. What do you feel about uh what do you think about oil? >> So oil, if you remember, oil was in December uh when we did our year end or look forward. Oil was my top pick for the first half of 2026 in terms of performance. Now, needless to say, silver right now is crushing it. Uh but look at the breakout on oil, folks. Again, I was loving this this wedge pattern here. Low end. Think about where oil is uh if you adjust for inflation. I mean, we see oil at levels it was trading 10 years ago. Think about the inflation in the last 10 years and oil still trading at those levels. And so now you have a bullish breakout. We hear about more increasing tensions again with Iran, more military forces being moved into the Middle East. And this to me is like likely going to be a continued big rally here to the upside. But great breakout on oil. I'm a big bull on oil. >> Okay. Uh, final question before I let you go. Uh, Gareth, I I asked you earlier what the world would look like at 10,000 gold. Let's just take a step back and look at the world today. Couple years ago when I first started interviewing you. I think I asked you similar questions about what the world would look like if gold went to $5,000. Here we are probably sooner than most people expected. Does the world look like what you thought the world would look like at $5,000 gold? >> No. I I think I think I expected a little bit worse. Um, I think again, uh, you know, 5,000 has come so quickly and I mean, like you said, we're not that far from 6,000 at this point. So, I think that again, a lot of people are buying into this fear that I think is warranted, but it's it's really propelling gold uh ahead of what potentially is going to happen. But I do think there is a breaking point. And I think at 10,000, if we're getting to 10,000 in the next few years, things have deteriorated sizably in the US economy and probably the global economy and maybe even geopolitically, it it's even worse than it is now. >> All right, Gareth, awesome talk today. Thank you so much for uh educating us in this very uh very interesting time for the markets. Where can we follow you? >> Uh you can follow me at verifiedinvesting.com. It's again where we focus on charts and data, try to eliminate the hype and just see what the charts are actually telling us. But just check me out at verifiedinvesting.com. Awesome. We'll put the links down below. Make sure to follow Gareth there. Uh thank you so much, Gareth. We'll speak again soon. Take care for now. >> Thank you, David. Thank you so much. >> And thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.
'Financial Crisis' Zone; Trader's Warning For Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin | Gareth Soloway
Summary
Sign up for STLLR’s exclusive Gold Macro Newsletter at http://stllrgold.com/davidlin. Review their cautionary statements and risk …Transcript
It's Fed day. Uh the Fed held rates steady. We're going to reexamine why the Fed did what they did. What's next for the Fed? What's next for markets? Extraordinary day for the markets today right after the FOMC meeting uh was concluded. But actually all throughout the day, gold's been climbing. Probably biggest single day climb in I don't know exactly number of years. I'm going to have to find that. But years it's up 6% in a day, which is unheard of practically for the precious metal. Uh, silver is at another new all-time high, briefly touching $117 an ounce. The S&P is flat. 6979 is my is on my screen. Bitcoin's flat. Uh, we're going to talk about what's next for the dollar. What all this means, what is the precious metals complex signaling right now for the global economy. Gareth Soloway joins us once more, president of Verified Investing. Gareth, it's always great to have you. What a crazy crazy time we live in today. Welcome back. >> You are not kidding. It is amazingly wild. I mean from the metals to the stock market to individual stocks um the dollar in movement there. I mean it is nuts. Uh David it is quite wild. >> I I want to I want to today's theme is basically when are markets topping. Uh that was basically the biggest takeaway from investor retail investor interest at least uh from having come back from a from a conference this past weekend. I was at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference. I cannot tell you Gareth how many times just attendees of the conference came up to my booth personally and said hey thanks for uh doing your show we love Gareth in the show by the way uh but uh why is the market behaving the way they are and when can we start start taking profits so I'm going to ask you about that today uh take a listen to this particular question on the FOMC uh or at the FOMC rather it's about Japan I'll just start here I >> I wanted to ask you've talked in the past about concerns about about the US fiscal trajectory and we've seen in the Japanese bond market a lot of turmoil recently uh in part due to concerns over their their fiscal and and long-term economic outlook. So do you worry that the US could at some point find itself in a situ similar situation to Japan whether for fiscal or demographic reasons? [snorts] >> You know over time you've seen that US rates have remained pretty they haven't moved a lot really for a while but they haven't moved a lot uh because of what's been happening in Japan. Um, so it's more of an overtime thing. The US federal budget deficit is, you know, uncontroversially on an unsustainable path. The level of debt is not unsustainable. It's very much sustainable, but the path is unsustainable. And the sooner we work on it, the better. >> Okay. First of all, he's pretty much making an open attack on the Treasury, uh, which he doesn't typically do or is not typical of any Fed president, uh, Fed chair, rather. Uh but what what what do you make of his statements overall? >> Yeah. And so so number one, he's he's dead on. And I think almost everyone watching this video is going to agree with that. It's unsustainable. And it's probably one of the reasons, maybe the main reason why the metals are ripping like they are, specifically gold. And ultimately, we came into the year 2025 thinking there were going to be major fiscal responsibility things put into place. Doge was brought into play with Elon Musk and we don't even see it anymore. It's not even in existence. They actually dissolved it. Um, and now we see the government spending more money than ever before. And so this is the issue here, right? There's this fundamental fear amongst everyone, you, myself, and everyone watching that this is an unsustainable path. And us as Americans, us as global participants, we have to start to prepare. And how else to prepare but buy alternatives to the US dollar if this is the trajectory we're on. >> So why is Bitcoin not soaring to new all-time highs if Bitcoin is considered an alternative to the US dollar? >> It's a great question and it's one I'm dealing with myself, right? So I am a believer in Bitcoin. But Bitcoin right now, right, you would say, okay, well, is it a risk asset? Well, the stock market's at all-time highs. Bitcoin is not. It's near 52- week lows. Well, okay, then is it the digital gold? Well, gold's at all-time highs. Bitcoin is not. It's near 52- week uh lows. Bitcoin is at an existential crossroads. It needs to figure itself out because then what is it? And the reason this has to and there's a lot of Bitcoiners out there, hodlers out there that are going to say, "Oh, well, it's a little bit of this, a little bit of that." But when you're talking to the masses out there, the people that are buying in their ETFs, the ETF in their portfolios, they need to know, pension funds need to know, right? Is it a way to protect capital or is it a risk asset? And without that, you're not going to get the next wave of buyers. And so, we have to figure this out as as people that believe in Bitcoin to figure out what it is. And it has to start behaving like that. Yeah. Okay. Let's go back to Bitcoin in just a minute and talk about key levels. Let's talk about key levels of gold and silver. Silver, I'm seeing all over the internet, is behaving like a meme stock. That's what people are saying. That's not my That's not my verbiage, but let's start with gold. Um, yeah, you got the chart there. Anytime something moves parabolic, it's bound to move parabolic the other way. That's what you taught us all throughout these years. And yet, >> the truth, the question is when, right? And timing is always key. And listen, just because it's gone up so much, it generally because things are fundamentally shifting in the global sphere and in the US, it's probably not going to parabolically drop as much, but you will have a flush out. That's what we know from technical analysis. Now, the bigger question is where, right? I would have thought it would have been this pierce of 2,000 uh excuse me, $5,000 per ounce. We have not seen that yet. Now, what we can do is go to the logarithmic chart and start to take a look here and see. So, I flipped it to the logarithmic chart and we go back here. And what we do is if we flip over to a larger time frame, we start to notice that again you had this incredible move in the 1970s into 1980, this long base, another incredible move here, and a consolidation base that was shorter. And by the way, think about this. So, and this is just a little side note, but it's fascinating. Look at how long the consolidation base was here. And look at how long the consolidation base was here. Much shorter in the 2010 to 20 range. Now, why? Ask yourself why. Because here, this is where we actually had fiscal responsibility. We actually had a balanced budget at one point. Here, no balanced budget. And the problem is is these down cycles in gold. if we continue on this trajectory are going to get shorter and shorter. So, wherever gold tops and I'm not going to pretend I know at this point it's going to be a much shorter bare period or consolidation period unless the fiscal uh restraint is restored. And that's that's really the key crux here, folks. I mean, it just comes down to people rushing to diversify to protect themselves. They're buying insurance on a sinking ship. We see the sh the ship sinking. We've got to buy insurance. Well, just from a technical perspective, how can we make the uh deduction that something is just on a runaway trade? In other words, once it breaks above a certain ceiling, there's no stopping it. Is that what gold is doing right now? Yes, it's it's in price discovery mode. Absolutely. Absolutely. And it and the thing is, you know, listen, when it does correct, we'll look back and say, "Oh, there was a signal there or there." But right now, I don't see it myself. I thought the PIC of 5,000 5100 would have been a little bit of that reversal. And then what we've seen here just in the last few days is more tariff threats come out. Um the Federal Reserve coming out with their statement and all that's happening is people saying, "Wow, I believe in the US financial system less and less and they're buying more and more." Now again, there will be a reversion on this trade. My guess is, and it's hard to know the top, but my guess is when we look at the reversion here, and let's take it off the logarithmic chart, is what we'll start to see is a retrace to a reasonable pullback level. Like right here, we could see on the move up, this is where we stalled out, which means when we do correct, this 4,300 likely becomes your next base point, right? That's where you're going to hold on to the major gains most likely and potentially turn up unless we see that fiscal responsibility built in. Now David, you remember in the I think it was uh 2013 or 2012, the countries like Italy, Greece, remember the market eventually imposes austerity by certain means. And I do think the US is going to face that within multiple years, maybe within 3 years, the markets themselves will start to impose austerity regardless of whether our political players do. >> The Hold on. What do you mean by austerity? Who's going to impose austerity? Not >> well. So, so for instance, is the who's going to control the long end of the yield curve, right? If we look at the 10-year yield, the 10-year yield has just broken out. Look at this. We had major resistance all along this area right in here and we kept on hitting it. Then we bull flagged and we broke out. Now, it's beginning to move up. And so, my point is austerity is put into into place by interest rates, right? When you have the long end which can't be controlled by the Federal Reserve and those interest rates start going up, it's literally going to make it so we are going to have to cut spending and get our fiscal house in order and really the rest of the world at some point will force us to as well by not buying our debt. Before we continue with the video, let's talk about a company that's building serious gold leverage for the long term. Our sponsor today, Stellar Gold, is sitting on three major Canadian projects. Tower and Colomac are among the largest undeveloped gold sites in the country. The tower project alone could be worth $2.5 billion after tax at a $3,200 gold price assumption. And the prices go higher, so does its value. Colum expands over 1,000 square kilometers of greenstone deposits and could be Canada's next big gold camp. They also have Holler Tailings, a cleanup project that could deliver near-term cash flow. Across all projects, they've drilled over 16 million ounces of gold, which would cost over $2 billion to replicate today. With a seasoned team, Stellar Gold is one company to watch. Scan the QR code here on screen or visit stellarold.com/davidlin to learn more. Okay. By the way, uh $6,000 gold is only a 9% move from current levels, assuming $5,500. Uh well, we're 5,400. So about 10% 11% move. We're up just 6% in one day, Gareth. So it's not like 6,000 is now out of the realm of possibility, which is I I didn't think I would say the sentence in January 2026, but here we are. So uh what is that the next key resistance level for you, Gareth? 6,000. >> Yeah, 6,000 at this point would be unless something changes, right? And so if we flip back to the gold chart here, um at this point again, if we look at certain trend lines, right, and I'm a trend line trader, is that you really don't have anything, right? We've gone through this level here. We've pushed through that. We had a parallel here of support which kind of mirrored this right here. And we've now blown through. And so this is the thing is when you get in price discovery, sometimes as a technician, you just have to step back and say, "Hey, listen. It'll go until it stalls. And once more sellers come out of the woodwork or something occurs, then it will have its dump and then I can start trading it again based on technicals." But right now, the technicals are out the window. >> Before we move on, let me just comment on this. Let's skip ahead to the future. Imagine, you know, we're in the future now and we're historians of the present, meaning we look back at what's going on today. We could have ascribed whatever narrative to what happened in 2011, uh, and then 2020 when gold peaked then and then, uh, 1980 when gold peaked then. Uh, how would you describe what's happening now to your future grandkids, Gareth? I mean, I would I would explain it like if if they understood what a memecoin was, I would [laughter] explain explain silver, not gold, but silver right now is more of a meme. You have the same verbiage as it'll never come down. It's a new, you know, new paradigm or or or you know, all of these kind of same things that are going on. And we could flip over to the silver chart to take a look. Silver had a good day today, but gold, interestingly enough, is the one that made a new all-time high. Silver did not quite make a new all-time high and still has a topping tail in the daily chart here. And this is again this is a technical reversal that we saw a couple days ago on silver that until we have a daily close above it that is now in stone as a top signal for silver. And again it could be negated tomorrow. I'll be watching. But at least in this situation, and it is so similar the same way, you know, if I ever say anything negative on silver, the attacks on YouTube, they are massive. Just like if I ever back in 2021 said something about like, you know, Dogecoin, if if I ever spoke against that, it was the same sort of psychological impact and reversal. Well, what other market indicators or uh consumer sentiment or perhaps even just investor sentiment indicators would you need to look at to give you a topping signal? You know, the old adage of the s the cab drivers telling you about buying silver probably. Are we there yet? >> So, I do think we're there um at least on silver. Gold is obviously harder to pinpoint. And I I'm a big holder of long-term gold. I've been a big holder for years. In fact, I think a couple years ago it was my top pick with you on your show at the end of the year. for performance back I think it was 2022 or 2023 but ultimately again the excitement around it has made it an overcrowded trade. A lot of what we call in the trading world is the weak hands. The weak hands are the ones that buy in late and then they expect to get rich quick. And again, you compare that to those of us that have held gold since 2015 or 2010 or 2019 where we were just like sitting there watching everything else go up and we're like, but we really understand the financial reason for holding gold here and now we're getting the the the payout, right? But those players that buy late that are doing it to get rich, those will be the ones that get flushed out. The rest will kind of it'll then start to head back higher and probably make new alltime highs. I still think it's going to 10,000. The question is in what year? Okay. What does the world look like at 10,000 gold? >> Oh man, the hard questions. You're bringing your agame today. Um, you know, at 10,000 in gold, I would assume u we are at a whole new scenario of dollar or ddollarization. I would think and I think honestly that's a big thing of what's going on right now. Now, if we look at the US dollar, we've just seen one of the biggest drops, in fact, the biggest drop in the DXY since the f the the tariffs were levied last March and April in a 7-day span, right? So, 7 days down like this. Now, part of this is intervention with Japan, right? We're trying to prop up there and you played that clip um from the FOMC uh press conference, but at the same time, you are at a pivotal road. Look at this on the DXY. This is scary, folks. So this is your financial crisis low on the dollar just as we were getting into the heat of the financial crisis. This was May 2000, May June 2008. And look at this zone of support. The dollar has been riding up. Now we've heard about DD dollarization for ages. But until this breaks, I'm not a real believer, but it's looking like it's getting ready to break. And once this breaks, there's probably no stopping the US dollar from depreciating, maybe as low as the financial crisis lows back to the low70s on the DXY. And that's a scary scenario because remember this is going to import inflation, folks. A weaker dollar when we import so much of our goods, it is going to bring inflation up. And then you look at copper, then you look at silver, palladium, platinum, all of these things, live cattle prices, all near all-time highs. Now listen, grains are still low. I still actually like those as a defensive play. But there is bubbling up inflation and I do think that's the kind of the the scary part for 2026 that could surprise the market, right? The economy, we heard from Jerome Powell today, the economy is hanging in there. It's still looking a little bit better. But what about inflation? Because I look everywhere and I'm seeing inflation bubbling up and I have a feeling everyone watching is seeing the same thing. >> Okay. Uh so once the dollar breaks down, what does that mean for let's just take the S&P 500 in particular? Uh does this have any impact on on on the stock markets? Yeah. So so again, it's going to have a big impact if it's in freef fall, right? So if we if we just inch down a little bit every month or so, it's going to have a very minimal impact. It's kind of like what do they say? you know, you you put a not I won't even get into it, but something in hot water and it and you heat the water and it's heating slowly, they don't realize it. But if you you know, obviously boiling water is a different story. But the idea here again is that the the dollar if it starts to break down significantly below the level we just discussed is going to bring this market in because again we are so reliant on the world buying our debt, right? And the dollar being the reserve currency, it is going to shake the fundamentals here. here and you can see here on the S&P let's go over this right so this is what's concerning me everyone listen what I think is so interesting is so many individual investors were coming to you and asking you is the market topping I don't know if they were talking about gold and silver or if the stock market but in relation to the stock market this is what's concerning look at where we are on this parallel here's your co low here's your bare market low here's your liberation selloff low right then you have your highs here perfect parallel look at where we are in fact the last time we touched it was in in October and we're now at a point, look at this trend line. Here's your liberation sell-off low. We drag it right up. We've broken this trend line and going into today, we are now basically at the underbelly of resistance or dual resistance trend lines. Now, you look at after hours, right? We look at Microsoft down on earnings. We look at Meta. Meta's up on earnings just a little bit. Let's see where Tesla Tesla's moving up. So, this is going to be interesting tomorrow to see who has more power here to keep the S&P rolling higher or starting to bring it down. But again, Microsoft seeing some selloff in the markets in the after hours here. >> Okay. Uh, you know, it's interesting how gold and silver gold and the stock markets have been moving together. and you think that the dollar is breaking down where when you think about what may happen to gold when a dollar when the dollar breaks down the way it has in the last couple weeks uh you would think that the gold surges the gold price surges which may partly explain why the two asset classes are moving the way they are but when the dollar moves down and the stock market goes down with it in this scenario what happens to gold is my question and I asked this because gold and the stock market have been moving in the exact same direction for quite some time now Gareth >> yep and so what I would expect is if we see a sudden drop a sharper breakdown in the dollar. The fear just if we all remember what happened in COVID right when COVID March of 2020 uh occurred we saw the stock market decline and gold also fell initially and that would be my expectation. So basically the idea is that fear permeates all and when people get very scared they sell everything to be safe and then once the dust settles they say all right let me start buying gold again because again this is a bullish sign. So again fear triggers the sell and then very quickly we saw gold and co recover and actually move up substantially. I would expect the same thing. So initially I think they fall together. Maybe that's where the correction comes in. when the stock market corrects, gold corrects as well. And then I think gold after a quick correction starts to regain and move higher. >> Okay. Uh key levels for the S&P 500 at this point. Uh we're almost at 7,000. What's next? Yeah. So, what I'm really watching is these two trend lines, right? We have the bigger parallel here going back to 2020 and this one from April of 2025. And you can see how it basically tagged each of these lows right through here before we broke down. Watch this zone right up here. Basically between 7,15 and 7,50. If the S&P can get above that, you now are in price discovery mode and we could see something all a move like we've seen in gold to the upside. If it gets rejected and we can't get above here at some point, path of least resistance is a much bigger move down. So really, we look at the mega caps reporting. We look at all these factors coming in. Inflation data is coming in the next few days. watch closely to see can the S&P get through this level. If it does, bulls continue to rule the roost. But if we can't get through this level in the next two weeks, I think you're looking at a 15 20% draw down in the stock market. >> Okay. Uh that brings down Bitcoin with it or no? >> Yes. Unfortunately, yes. Um Bitcoin is is again has performed horribly. Look at this trend line right here on Bitcoin. It's even broken short-term technical support. Today we saw again a rally on Bitcoin to the underbelly of this trend line and it got rejected is now flat on the day. But this again is a what we would refer to in technical analysis. This was a bare flag, right? A move down with a lot of sideways chop and now it's potentially broken as if it can't recapture 90,000. This is going down to 70,000. >> Okay. Uh Gareth, what are your favorite asset classes at this point then? >> Wow. So, I am a huge fan of some of these kind of defensive names. So, if we take a look, I'll show you a couple that I'm in myself. Look at Kagra. Kagra, look at this chart. It just broke out on the daily chart. Now, this isn't a an asset class. It's a specific stock. But I think you look at these value plays. You know, where where if we do start to struggle economically, are people going to go? They're going to go buy frozen food, right? The cheaper stuff. And we've just broken out on Kagra here of this downs sloping. Look at how compare this to some of the memory plays like a SanDisk way at the low end of the range. PE ratio forward PE of eight or nine low again in that respect. Pays a dividend. I think that's a great one. Craft hind KHC look at this beautiful move here. Chart is way beaten down and it's coming off of these lows. I think these are where you start to look for real value. China stocks were good. Remember, we talked about those about 6 12 months ago as being my favorite plays. Alibaba, BYU, they've all had massive runs at this point. So now it's getting harder and harder to find assets, right? I mean, even back then I was saying, well, gold is a great one. Now it's tough. I wouldn't be recommending myself. I'm not buying gold right up here. I'm not buying silver up here. Sure, on a pullback I will, but at this point it's being in cash or being in some of these. And you could say, "Oh, well, cash is depreciating." Sure. But even if the dollar loses two or three more percent but the stock market falls 20%. I would still rather be in cash and then move into stocks on a discount. >> You're not concerned about inflation. You're not concerned about gold signaling massive inflation, which is some what some people are saying. I'm not sure if that's what you think. >> Yeah. So, I do think it it signals an uptick in inflation, but I think it's more a story about fiscal irresponsibility, right? And basically alienating uh our allies, right? when you when you threaten eight nations with tariffs um over Greenland, you know, do you do we think that they're going to be like, "Oh, sure. We'll continue to hold all our dollars and we'll buy all your treasuries." No, they're going to be like, "Dude, I'm not going to buy all this." And what does that do? It then puts pressure. They start dumping dollars. We know that um countries like China have been dumping treasuries for a long period of time. this is going to continue and escalate even and that's where you really get into trouble here um with the markets with rates going up even potentially and and even to some extent inflation when the dollar comes down. >> Okay. Uh which do you not like maybe like the least >> asset class wise or securities wise sector wise? >> So I I would I would right now be staying away from parabolic moves like you know there's so much hype. This is this is the the chart of Seagate Technologies. It's it's if you look at the monthly chart, this has gone since April from $60 to $450. These charts are not healthy. This is very Alla Silver right now as well. It's not that I don't think Seagate or silver are great assets to own, just not at this price, right? You give me Seagate back at 250, you give me silver back at $70 an ounce, now we're talking. But at these levels, these parabolic moves, they do come crashing down. We just don't know how high they go first. the uh US 10-year yield has been rising for uh the last two years now. It's been rangebound. How do you feel about bonds, especially the Treasury? >> Yeah. So, I I think bonds you have to at least on the long end here. Um the Fed is going to try to control it. Um I would remind people that even though we're going to get a new Fed chair in May, I believe he it's still a voting factor. So, if Jerome Pal stays on that board and and again, inflation starts to inch up, don't be surprised if it looks less likely that we're going to get the rate cuts that everyone's already writing in post Jerome Pal's tenure. And again, this chart here, as long as we stay above 4.2% on the 10-year, this is a bullish breakout, which signals higher longend yields are coming here. >> Okay. Uh the uh the other question I have for you is oil. Let's let's just finish up in oil before we wrap up. Uh oil is trending lower. What do you feel about uh what do you think about oil? >> So oil, if you remember, oil was in December uh when we did our year end or look forward. Oil was my top pick for the first half of 2026 in terms of performance. Now, needless to say, silver right now is crushing it. Uh but look at the breakout on oil, folks. Again, I was loving this this wedge pattern here. Low end. Think about where oil is uh if you adjust for inflation. I mean, we see oil at levels it was trading 10 years ago. Think about the inflation in the last 10 years and oil still trading at those levels. And so now you have a bullish breakout. We hear about more increasing tensions again with Iran, more military forces being moved into the Middle East. And this to me is like likely going to be a continued big rally here to the upside. But great breakout on oil. I'm a big bull on oil. >> Okay. Uh, final question before I let you go. Uh, Gareth, I I asked you earlier what the world would look like at 10,000 gold. Let's just take a step back and look at the world today. Couple years ago when I first started interviewing you. I think I asked you similar questions about what the world would look like if gold went to $5,000. Here we are probably sooner than most people expected. Does the world look like what you thought the world would look like at $5,000 gold? >> No. I I think I think I expected a little bit worse. Um, I think again, uh, you know, 5,000 has come so quickly and I mean, like you said, we're not that far from 6,000 at this point. So, I think that again, a lot of people are buying into this fear that I think is warranted, but it's it's really propelling gold uh ahead of what potentially is going to happen. But I do think there is a breaking point. And I think at 10,000, if we're getting to 10,000 in the next few years, things have deteriorated sizably in the US economy and probably the global economy and maybe even geopolitically, it it's even worse than it is now. >> All right, Gareth, awesome talk today. Thank you so much for uh educating us in this very uh very interesting time for the markets. Where can we follow you? >> Uh you can follow me at verifiedinvesting.com. It's again where we focus on charts and data, try to eliminate the hype and just see what the charts are actually telling us. But just check me out at verifiedinvesting.com. Awesome. We'll put the links down below. Make sure to follow Gareth there. Uh thank you so much, Gareth. We'll speak again soon. Take care for now. >> Thank you, David. Thank you so much. >> And thank you for watching. Don't forget to like and subscribe.