Investment Strategy: Tony Manini emphasizes the importance of identifying quality junior mining projects with high economic potential, focusing on assets that can become company makers.
Track Record: Manini's extensive experience includes significant successes in the mining sector, such as the development of the Sepon project in Laos and involvement in companies like Oxiana and NextGen Energy.
Key Criteria for Success: Successful mining investments rely on a combination of strong technical teams, proven geological terrains, and a clear path to economic viability.
People and Teams: Manini highlights the critical role of assembling competent teams, noting that successful leaders in the industry often have a track record of building strong, capable groups.
Probability Management: The mining exploration business is likened to venture capital, where managing probabilities and cutting losses early are essential for success.
Valuation Considerations: When evaluating early-stage exploration companies, it's important to assess the sum of the parts, considering factors like proven resources, joint ventures, and the potential for M&A activity.
Investment Philosophy: Manini advises focusing on the people behind the projects, the geological potential, and maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation and risk management.
Passion and Learning: Continuous learning and passion for the industry are emphasized as key drivers for long-term success in mining investments.
Transcript
Today on resource talks, a geologist with nearly four decades of dealmaking experience is talking to me about how to tell the good from the bad junior mining companies and projects. Just briefly for people watching or listening, if you want a summary of this conversation and all the other interviews that we do on Resource Talks, go to resourcealks.com. There's a free newsletter. He goes out once a week with a bullet point summary of all the conversations from the week before. The geologist in question's name is Tony Manini and he's backed and buried more projects than most of us will and have ever looked at. The first one was actually Sepon Sepon discovery in Laos. It's a 3 and a half million ounce gold and a 1 million ton copper resource which went into production back in 2002 when I was learning the alphabet and and although I still have difficulties with the alphabet Sepon is still in production today which is impressive. Um many other discoveries and notable happenings since and in between but Tony's an Aussie though so no time will be wasted on pleasantries here which means I'll be shutting up already and Tony I'll let you do the talking but first of all thank you for your time today. >> No worries. Thanks Antonia. Great to great to be on and uh looking forward to having a good chat. >> Uh I do as well and the pleasure is mine because I really did enjoy our chat at the uh Dirty Boot in in in Colorado last month. So I really think this will be helpful um to myself and also others out there. But for the record, I do have to start off every interview the way I I I always do with new guests, which is track record. Um what is yours? What's your track record in doing what you'll be preaching here today? and and more importantly, have you made more money than you've lost? >> Yeah. Okay. So, um as you mentioned, I'm a geologist with 40 years of background. Um so, this is I'll try to keep the answer pretty concise or as concise as I possibly can. Um so, over the journey, um I have been involved in you know quite a lot of success and some failures and we can talk about both of those. Um essentially I started as a geologist at uh CRA which was a predecessor to uh Riointo after CRA and Riointo merged around 1999. Uh I worked as an exploration geologist within Riointo 15 years in Riointo worked as everything really from the first day of expiration. So Greenfield's exploration started in diamonds with Rio uh then through base metals gold uh and you know uranium and various other things over a 15- year period. Um I was fortunate I guess in those early days to um work on very uh significant uranium discovery uh called Rud River in in Western Australia early. So that was it's always I think a good thing um as a young geologist to work on a project which is a new discovery the excitement that's around that and the growth of it. I wasn't involved in the discovery. I came in during the evaluation phase. So um that was great exposure. I had 5 years in Western Australia with CRA and then uh I was um called into the office of my boss at the time, Graeme Drew, who said that uh he he thought or or the company was starting I was opening an office up in Laos. Um and you know, he thought it'd be something that uh would be a good fit for for me from um so I didn't even know where Laos was. I'd only ever traveled out of Australia once when I was 14 years old with my parents. Uh my father's from Italy, so that was a trip back to the homeland. So I hardly knew where Laos was. Um but I'd always wanted to work um in the frontier areas that CRA were working in. At that time it was pretty much papu guinea and Indonesia. Um and so this was an extension sort of I guess of the Southeast Asian exploration effort and the company had made some great discoveries in PNG and Indonesia. So as somebody who was motivated by being involved in discoveries um the LA opportunity was like okay I'm going to a front a new place there has been very little work done uh the company tells me there's a lot of prospectivity so um you know I was I was attracted by that um I subsequently went to Laos for 3 months to have a look and stayed there for well around 10 years of which I had two to two first two years in Thailand, northern Thailand, uh eight years in Laos and then I had quite a bit of time in Indonesia back and forth. So that was sort of that initial phase. During that during that eight years in Laos um we um the team that I led uh really um discovered and evaluated the Sepon deposits. So uh that was uh you know when you're I guess involved in something really from the first day. So uh it's it's a it's a great learning curve for any any geologist and I think there's a sort of aatic here um that we can talk to later on Antonio but and it's really that exposure to success I think is is a quite a critical ingredient. So look, we, you know, we, it was a small team. Um, we did a lot of reconnaissance work. We made a discovery. I think you said 3 and a half million ounces of gold, but I think it was actually 5 million ounces in the end. Um, and you know, really significant copper deposit. So that was ultimately we worked on that. um we sort of did the early exploration work, we did the evaluation work and you know everything in in a new frontier area. So it was on the Ho Chi Min trail in Laos, one of the most heavily bombed places actually on the planet. So we had to um we managed uh large ordinance clearance teams. We had um you know uh communities that had never seen essentially um you know westerners uh there was oxen horses and carts and you know there was progression to roads and cars and motorcycles. So managing sort of all the community expectations managing environment managing that was a great learning curve and the geology was you know exceptional and exciting. So um you know we we had some great consultants come and help us on the project. You learn from all of those you know you go away to you know it was a great training ground um CRA Rio Tinto extremely successful exploration group um and you know having that exposure to so many good people um was experienced you know it's very hard to replicate. So 15 years uh you know there uh in Riointo decided to sell the project um in the late '9s we got the gold price was $250 and the copper price was 63 cents and we were selling a project in Laos. Ultimately there was very little interest in it because of those uh you know those things that I just talked about you know Ho Chi Min Trail bottom of the market. Uh there was some insurgency still running in the northern part of the country. So it was you know it was a it was a uh it was a big ask for people at that time and the capital markets were shut. you know, even if you were interested, you probably couldn't put the money together. And that was subsequently what happened in the in the deal. We ran the commercial, I ran the commercial side of the transaction. So um so I'd taken the project effectively from through the exploration phase through the evaluation studies phase um where we had resources and then ultimately I transitioned um into a commercial role to to run the um the devestment of the of the assets that was uh subsequently acquired by Oxy Limited which was a junior company um run by Owen Hegy who's been my business partner ever since um Owen uh had been 25 years at Rio Tintel CRA as the head of the copper and gold business in Asia. He was running this junior company having come off a success himself with a management buyout of another asset within the group and he uh was well known to the company obviously and that track record that he brought and he was really the only one who put up um uh some upfront money and convinced Rio Tinto to stay in for 20% of the asset. So >> um so that was uh that was that that transaction got done and then I subsequently um transitioned well asked me you know if I was interested in joining Oxiana to continue the development of the project which I'd worked on for for eight years to take it actually through visibility into production. So that was an opportunity that was um it's sort of like I was going to say uh too good to refuse. because it was too good to refuse from a career um uh development perspective. But uh at the same time, Riot Tinto had offered me my dream job, which was to be the BD head uh over in Canada in Vancouver, based in Vancouver at that time. So, I've always had a passion for the capital markets, the junior end of town, and I've been an investor in that since I've been 15 years old. So um you know so that was that was a big um you know I was a bit torn at that point in time but um this was you know Owen convinced me that this was a company making opportunity a life making opportunity. So effectively joined the Oxiana team. I think there was three or four of us. Um and we set about you know developing the Sepon projects and uh raised small amounts of money and you know gradually um gradually got the capital together to put it through feasibility study. Uh first the gold mine into production very you know small small gold mine then we expanded the gold mine and then off the back of that we built a big copper operation which had a lot of unique characteristics to it and uh you know all of that was it was incredible experience as you would anticipate a frontier new development spending $800 million in Laos in the early 2000s to build you know a big business. So then we, you know, we ran very hard and I won't go through it all in detail, but over the next effectively over an 8-year period, we grew that company off the back of that uh Sepon development. We grew the company from a you know I think a five million around a three or five million market cap I can't remember now but it was a very small junior company into a $6.5 billion multi-asset producer so we you know we we built Sepon copper and gold and copper then we we did a we did a buy out of a a mine called Golden Grove in Western Australia from Newmont was an encore asset we did a redevelopment of that subsequently got uh that was the first bit of luck that you know everyone needs to have a little bit of luck. So the zinc price went for a run and it was a high-grade zinc mine and it made a lot of money pretty quickly. Uh we got into prominent hill very early. Junior company had discovered it minural resources. Um I think most of the people looked at it thought it was quite small. I had a look at it and had a detailed look at the geology and thought that there had been a key a fundamental um piece had been maybe misinterpreted. So we farmed into the project. Uh I said to Owen, we're going to go over here. We're going to drill four holes and if these holes hit, then we're away to the races and we need to take this company over pretty quickly. So um subsequently we stepped out uh on a on a bit of a different interpretation the geology the holes hit you know hundreds of meters of all grade copper and gold and we took over the junior company I think for $90 million and then we spent a billion dollars to take it right through drill out resources feasibility study and built a mine uh in South Australia and all of that was done in a world record time of seven years from start to finish. So uh and that mine's operating today. So that asset is in the portfolio of OS minerals that uh just recently got uh sold to BHP. >> Mhm. >> So um that was Prominent Hill gold prominent and then we had another another project in Indonesia Matabi which uh we were putting develop. So four you know four oper four operations and another development project and then we merged the company uh 2008 uh just before the GFC um everything got crunched that was with ZFX and Oxiana merged to become Ozmin Minerals or partly Ozmin Minerals um some of the assets were sold to MMG the Chinese minerals group um and the assets got split So MMG went on to operate some of those. We bought the golden growth back mine back from them years later. Um and then um OS Minerals was formed and I was part of the executive team at OS Minerals. I stayed there for a short period of time and then I left uh to go back to my entrepreneurial pursuits which was uh and formed an incubator company called Tigers Realm Group. So um Tigers Realm Group essentially we put together private capital um myself Owen and a group of investors who'd made good money out of Oxiana put private money together we went and um acquired assets globally um predominantly copper gold but we had some met coal and we had some uranium as well and we used our private capital to work to acquire them work them up and then ultimately when we needed larger trenches of capital to to up the spend rate, drill them out, etc. We went to the private uh to the public markets. So, uh out of that incubator company, we um we had Tiger's Realm Coal where we discoal. We um you know we we picked that up. We we essentially we drilled that out. Um discovered you know some true really really high quality met coal deposits on the coast in far eastern Russia. Took that all the way through um studies uh and built the mine and then the mine was sort of expanded. It was a very hard uh hard yards to to get to do that. Um but ultimately got buil we built it. We we we did the work. It got built um and it was scaling up and starting to go well and the sanctions hit about 3 or four years ago and ultimately um essentially lost control of the asset at that point in time. So that was uh that was uh Tigers Ron Cole um was producing you know I was producing about 1.2 2 million tons of met coal a year at that point. Um then and probably the then we had some Indonesian assets which are in a junior company called Asia Met Resources where I'm still the chairman. Um and we've taken that all the way through discovery taken it through feasibility and ready to build. Now it's a shovel ready copper project in project financing. So that's uh Asia Met listed uh on the London name. Uh again been a hard grind there. Indonesia is not the easiest place, but you know, we have a lot of lot of lot of background and experience there and been able to get it through to this point and, you know, subsequently get the mine built and uh and then probably the the one that most people from the Canadian side would know is NextG Energy. So, um, NextGen Energy, we we, um, uh, the chairman of NextGen Energy, Chris McFaden, actually worked with us at the time. Uh, Chris Newly Courier. Um, I'd known or some of us had known Andy Brown, who's the geologist, um, from North Limited, you know, very highly respected geologist, uh, had quite a lot of uranium experience as well in the past. So anyway, they brought this opportunity in Canada to us which was not was not the arrow package. Um was was actually another package over um near Ruff Rider, a discovery that Riointo subsequently acquired from Hatheror exploration. So was piece of ground next to that. That was the basis of the deal. We seated um Lee and Andy for the first $5 million at 5 cents, which sounds pretty good when the stock's trading about 13 bucks today. That was about 11 years or something ago. Um so they then subsequently uh you know got onto the opportunity to pick up the AR package. um we we supported them to do that as in you know we we we were happy to um I guess dilute very early in the piece um for them to do that off the back of what we considered to be you know very exciting package and that's what it turned out to be worldass discovery made in the second drill hole so the geohysics was flown the the holes were cited by Andy and the second hole you know drilled a worldass deposit the rest is history there. Um so that was uh NextG Energy. Um and then the other thing actually we talked about this earlier on Antonio the Predis was the precursor to C3 Metals. So C3 Metals again TSX listed working in Jamaica. Um we picked up the properties in Jamaica in that incubator company. Um we'd worked them. It was a difficult time. We farmed them out uh to Oz Minerals. O spent about $20 million. they ultimately there's a lot of complexity in this around the deal packaging up the deals and involved which I won't spare the details so we did all that um and then that's in the C3 now um and you know we've had a very clear business plan with C3 which we've been evolving but that's uh so that's you know that's got a market cap uh of over hund00 million today um so it's it's it's$20 million I think it is thereabouts um and you know drilling some great targets in a market which is hungry for new new copper and it's it's got some outstanding things to do. Um and then around 10 years ago 11 years ago um we set up uh EMR Capital which is um a private equity firm uh specializing in the resources sector. The strategy of EMR is very different to the incubator models and things that I just talked about in the junior space. It's really look it's operational turnarounds. So we buy existing producing assets or assets on care and maintenance where the infrastructure's been built uh and we put capital and you know we've got a very through that background that I've just described got a very strong operating uh team of people. We put good people to work with capital with a very clear plan to create value out of the asset. Not relying on commodity price to drive value. It's more it's it's actually fundamentally what we can do with the asset to create value. Turn those assets around um optimize them expand them and then ultimately on sell. So that's the MR private equity business. We run about $3 billion on the behalf of US uh pensions, uh university endowments and families, wealthy families. So um so that's uh that's EMR. We've been going about uh 11 years or so. Um then uh for my sins, I've do a couple of other things in the mining services industry uh privately. But um I think going to your question, you know, in terms of value creation, so um I think you know, we've had our ups and downs. I think it's fair to say anybody in this industry that doesn't have ups and downs is um probably not really from this industry, but um uh we've certainly, you know, we've, you know, I'm I'm very proud to say we've created uh an enormous amount of value for shareholders, for stakeholders, for governments, um you know, for for lots of different people. uh and made made a bit of money for ourselves along the way. Um but you know, we're very proud of our track record in terms of not just discovering things, developing things, but you know, our environmental standards, our social standards, um and everything else. And that's really, you know, I I always point people to the fact that major companies, New Pneumont, Riotinto, um, you know, Anglo Gold, um, you know, many of the large companies are happy to sell assets to us as good stewards of those assets. So to me that's uh you know that's a that says that we've been doing something right along the way. >> I think that's that's fair to say and a lot of interesting things there that you're touching upon. I'm not hearing much about Andina or it used to be Pampa which you just recently got involved with. Uh and that actually is is one of the interesting parts for me here because that's really what I'm wondering here. How do you how do you recognize stuff like that where you do want to get involved early on? Like what are the what are the bones of a good junior if you will? And at first I thought you know I'd start asking questions about the geology and whatnot because you are a go that's what you do but it actually makes more sense you know having having heard the entire >> track record here makes more sense to ask you what you think the beginning of a of a good junior is. So, so where do you start when you first find out about a company like Indino, whatever else it might be? What's the first thing you look at? >> Yeah. Okay. Um, so really, I mean, fundamentally, you've got to look for um, you know, it's an easy it's an easy thing to say. It's a harder thing to do to look for quality projects that have high probability of being an economic proposition. So from day one, you got to look at something and say, do I believe that this asset can one day make mine? So that's fundamentally how I would look at things and that translates into what people call company maker assets. So you know does it have the shape, size, um footprint, um location, all the fundamental things that ultimately um could make an economic proposition. So that's the really the starting criteria. Um, and you know, it's interesting. I've just run you through the history. Um, you know, there's a there's a couple of younger entrepreneurs that have come through our organizations that are quite prominent in the markets now. And um, Craig Perry is one which who's well known the markets in Vanc out of um, Vancouver. Um and you know they've got um you know some some really good quality projects and you know created multi you know billiond dollar plus companies. You know Craig Craig was with us for for many years. Charles Funk who's got Helier uh you know he's got production and he's growing his production and building out the mine. And then James Decrepy over here in the Oz market with Catalyst which is you know essentially you know billion and a half2 billion dollar type market cat company. So all of those sort of younger guys came through I guess with the same DNA and that is start with you know start with assets that can clearly have a pathway to being an economic proposition. So that's the starting point. Um how do you find them? Um so so there's many different angles Antonio as to what that looks like. So the andina I'll use the andina example. So Andina, we've taken an approach with Andina and that is secure under or off the radar tier one or tier 2 copper opportunities in South America where there's a high probability of M&A. So um that's sort of the one key point of starting thesis and then we put together um you know a strong team that needs to execute on high quality work drilling studies adds very significant value derisk the projects. it goes to that economic proposition derisk um and then define what that economic proposition looks like that pathway and economic proposition. So at the same time as you sort of got you know strong technical people you got strong commercial people to secure the deals in the first place you also need to build out a strong capital markets profile um and a good share registry and we talked about the share registers earlier on um where you've got supportive capital through the journey because it is a journey and you got to have supportive capital people who have done this before they understand what the journey is they understand what the risks are and they're backing you and the team to actually execute well um and understanding it's a probabilities game but by having the right recipe you know you get the probability stacked uh into into your favor and you know there's a I think you know many people understand that this business expiration is a venture capital business. Um, a lot of people don't understand it's a venture capital business and how you manage a venture capital business, but um, it's a probabilities based business. It's a,30 prospects make one mind. Nobody can play a,030 to one. So you've got to you've got to look at okay how do you get yourself from,30 down to a manageable uh number and you know I think that manageable number is somewhere between six and 10. Um and then you know it goes to all of these things that say okay you got a very clear business plan. You've got to look at the assets from the start as being potential economic propositions. you got to build the team and the capital around it and then execute well to deliver a liquidity event at the end of the day or build a mine um if you if that's uh what you intend to do as part of the business plan. >> So I think um that's sort of in a business context and then how do you find the projects I think was your other question. um feel free to to um jump in. But I I guess um through that through that 40 years of sort of global diversified experience, you get to work with and network and make contacts with a lot of people globally. So when I go looking for a project, we set very specific criteria as to what the project needs to look like. Um and then you know we go out to the network uh and the network's network and various others and you know things like I would call around some of the most experienced geologists in the world and say hey you know um where's the one project that you worked on with let's call it Anglo go Anglo American or with Riotinto or whoever that you worked for that for whatever some reason um you just never got to do what you wanted to do on that project and you think it's it's got great potential. So that's just one sort of way that I would approach it. But I think we're very, you know, one of the I think the key thing is that we're very particular about what we get into uh in the first place geologically um and you know the ability to execute. Now in Andina, we've sort of um part of the strategy in Andina is to I've already said tier one and tier 2 copper opportunities, but we wanted to find things that had already been had all grade intersection in them. So they'd already been drilled, but for a one reason or another, they hadn't actually been pursued. Um and you know there's history around both of the projects that um Andina has got in the portfolio. Um the two core projects being P Kennis and the uh through the takeover of Rugby Resources the Cabrasco project in Colombia. So both of these have had um different histories but uh they are overlooked projects which have well you know what I would put into the tier one tier 2 you know uh intersections so big wide intervals of what look to be potentially economic grades. Um so you know that's been a key driver. If you look at you know the say let's take Robert Freedelland for example. Robert Freedelland, you know, has a fundamental um uh I guess motivation to find worldclass deposits and pretty much will go uh wherever those deposits may be because his track record ultimately he can put the capital together to advance them. And if they are truly tier one or tier two, then you can back solve all the other issues that come with that over time. Uh the Londons have sort of done the same thing up in the up in um the the high Andes there in Argentina with FO and you know that's you know an overnight success that probably took 20 years. So um you know I think Antonio that maybe gives a little bit of a flavor as to you know the way that we think about things. So it's firstly driven by the asset profile and then it's really about getting the right execution team. Um it's about building the right capital markets profile to support the the development with with capital that it needs. Uh it's not easy um you know with the cyclicity and the volatility of our markets but you just need to be able to to keep them alive um and uh you know put the capital together to be able to to advance them and drive them forward. Um so yeah I think they're all you know pretty all all important things. H there's lots to touch upon there but actually the beginning of it of your answer that was I think one of the more interesting points for me because you said you should ask yourself early on will it be a mine and and I suppose that makes sense from your perspective as an operator but then at the same time it doesn't have to be a mine in order for me as a retail investor to make money on it right I mean stocks go up and down for um for making a discovery essentially or not making a discovery in that case so does Do I still have to keep that approach even you know from my sort of retail perspective? Do I always have to look for a mine or am I looking for discoveries? >> No. No. So um I I so dis a discovery what is the the right way to put it? So when I say a mind, I'm saying okay, if it's a discovery, then it's a discovery which has a a footprint to it that says that it's going to be a mine. So it's not like you have to be the miner or you have to take it through to be a mine. I mean, look at, you know, great bear's a terrific example, right? They they basically drilled a big deposit out over time and then ultimately sold it without a resource on it. So, but you know, everybody that looked at it from a distance knew that by the scale and grade it was going to be mine. So, um I think that's really what I'm saying. Same thing with NextG Energy. You know, it's it's it's like, you know, it's a world-class deposit. It's going to be a mine. Camoa Cakula, you know, the Pilo Mining. Um, you know, and there's other there's others that are there's lots of others that um, you know, it's it's really about does it have the the the shape, size, grade. I mean, I see so many times, you know, so-called discoveries where people, you know, might be drilling, you know, hundreds of meters of 2.1. Well, you know, that's never going to be a mine. unless it's got some real peculiarity that um but um you know I think absolutely you're 100% right um retail investors uh have the opportunity to participate in the discovery phase they don't they don't need to be there for the for the mind phase in fact you know as an investor myself uh and the junior companies that I'm involved in you know the the main focus for those companies is really on the discovery phase um and ultimately somebody else builds it. So um even though I've been involved in multi many builds um it doesn't necessarily need to be the focus of a junior company. In fact I think junior companies probably not you know that's not their skill set and typically when a junior company you know tries to take shouldn't say typically but often when a junior company tries to transition to a minor it's a rocky road. Um particularly with a single asset it's it's a rocky road. So, you know, I think, you know, there's there's there's a role to play for the junior explorer and, you know, there's a role to play for the bigger guys, you know, the the the medium small to mediumsiz developers and the and the large, you know, majors. So, you know, so it's it's it's about knowing your where your strengths lie, where your skill sets lie, um and what what space and which part of the business site uh that you actually um you know that you that you're trying to to create value from. >> Yeah. When you start looking at stuff like that or for stuff like that, what are kind of the the immediate red flags that you look for? Is it is it corporate level? Do you start with the rocks and you're looking for like faulty minology, metallergy? What are you looking for? >> Yeah, all of the above. Um, so you know there's a I guess a there's an informal checklist if you like in your mind. So number one, does it have you know all grades to start with? Um number two is it in a location that um you can devel you you can execute you can you know you can operate in uh that's very important. Um that's that's socially environmentally um you know services access uh all of those things that go into just enabling you to do the early stage exploration work. And look, you know, we're pretty good expiration jars are pretty good at solving for a lot of those sorts of issues, you know, access and water and various other things in the early phases. But, you know, I'd like to see an asset that's got, you know, it's got it's no point in finding something that's extremely good in a inside a national park, for example. Um, you know, it's it's so so are there any showstoppers? So I call them showstoppers, you know, potential showstoppers. No, as it got demonstrated all grades and widths. Um, I like the I like things where there's a definitive path to a definitive test. So I like definitive tests because ultimately to be successful as the same way as to be successful as an investor is the same way to be successful as an explorer and that is to essentially cut your cut your losses early. um the things that are not uh when the original thesis um hasn't stacked up uh or you divert start diverting from your original thesis, you need to cut those things early and that's one of the most difficult things for both investors and for explorers to do. Uh but it's fundamentally critical to a probabilities management business which is what this is. I know you that's actually that last part is funny because that's something you told me um in the dusty boot as well. You said if someone asks you what is your job and uh a geologist tells you that he's anything else but a probabilities manager, you might want to you might want to look elsewhere. Um what talk to me a little bit more about that. What do what do you mean a probability manager? and and again it goes back to the fact that that most things most things will never really make it through to to production but not even to discovery. So yeah talk to me about that. >> Yeah. Okay. Um so look I mean if you sort of break it down into its simplest form what is you know what is expiration? So firstly I've said a number of times through this interview you it's a venture capital business. So you got to understand what is a venture capital business and a venture capital business is effectively as it's described but it's you know it's it has you know I I mentioned a,030 to1 but let's assume we can get it down to a manageable level um it's you know the probabilities of success are call it 1 in 10. So then we have to manage that the one in 10 to drive a successful outcome. So what is expiration fundamentally? It's data collection and it's pattern recognition in data. Um and then acting on that by acting appropriately on the patterns in the data. So that's why it's very important to have um a very clear plan and gating posts in terms of okay if we see this we do this if we don't see this we do that. Um but you need to have a pathway which is either gated to take you forward or gated to get you out of that asset. So, it may be that look, we drilled the holes, it doesn't look big enough. Um, let's on sell it. Uh, it may be this thing's a dead duck and let's just cut our losses and get out of this because it fundamentally hasn't hasn't uh the thesis or the gate posts that we set for it. Um, and you cut those. So you you then take the better ones forward and then ultimately you rebuild your pipeline with better quality things and you continue to manage the probabilities that way. Um it's the same with investing the way I think about it. Okay, I can't do,330 to1. I take 10 I can manage 10. Let's just call it we let's just call it for the sake of it 10 $1 million bets. That's $10 million. Um okay. I I know that if I do if I execute well on the um on the venture capital business that I just described that I I I I should be able to get one of those in the 20 10 to 20x bracket, maybe better. I then should be able to get two of those into the 3 to 5x bracket. I then have another two that probably I might make a little bit on. I might break even. Um, and then I'm going to have two or three that, you know, they haven't shaped up for whatever reason. And the most critical thing with those things is I don't keep spending money on on them. I keep utilizing resources on them. I cut them loose early. So, you know, it's not an easy thing to do. Um, me personally, I even when I was young and didn't have a lot of money, uh, I was always prepared to cut my losses, sometimes very substantial losses early, uh, to concentrate on the bigger things. So, I think you got to have the right temperament for that. Not that many people have the right temperament for that. Even for me today after 40 years, it's a hard thing to do. Um my 22year-old son says to me, "Dad, you know, like it's uh stick to your plan." So um you know, so I think there that's when I say probabilities management business, that's I think hopefully you know through that description that's sort of how I think about. So that's both investing and in the expiration uh business as well. So you know and and let's take Andina's got three projects. Um you know I'd love them all to be successful and shape up as mines but ultimately you know our downside is protected by the quality of the assets we have and we've got three of them and you know one of those um you know hopefully turns into a tier one worldclass asset. Um, and you know, maybe if we're really lucky, we get another one that's um, turns out to be good. Um, but um, you know, the probabilities are probably stacked against us to get three out of three. >> Yeah. Um, and it's essentially you you figuring out how not to put money in in stuff that will lower those probabilities for you. Um, that might be an approach worth taking here as well. How do you what are the immediate red flags in in your process? What is it that you're looking for that? >> Yeah. >> Yep. Yeah. So, look, um I'm I'm very big on people. Um so, the team um so spend I think spend a disproportionate amount of your time diligencing the people. I think that's super critical. There's no surprises when you if you you know people people often ask why why are there a small number of people in this industry like a Ross Bey that you mentioned before or a Robert Freedelland or you know and and there's a number of these people around you know Richard Wark or you know why are they the successful guys here in Australia we've got some great entrepreneurs too and you know but they but the people have been involved in these things three times or you know four times and then you've got thousands of people who have been involved in success. So then you say, well, why is that? Right? And you got to you sort of drill down and you know, I think they're people who a they've got um the ability to build really good teams. That's, you know, super critical. They're not they don't necessarily need to be the best people themselves, but they got the ability to build really good teams, attract great people, technical, commercial, you know, country management, you know, all the different aspects that are that that go into it. They understand what the business is. Um, they take risk, but they manage risk accordingly. They manage those probabilities well. Um and then fundamentally over a long period of time you know they they get repeat successes off the back of off the back of that formula which only strengthens over time. So people is critical right so good people um will okay if this project doesn't shape up they're going to give you another shot because they'll find another good project. And you know, if you've got long-term, if you got a bit of a longerterm and patient view, um, you know, most people probably reinvent themselves and find another great project or another good project to give you another shot. They won't walk away and say, "It's a dead dog." And everyone loses their money. Too bad. Um, so, so I think people are really important. There's a lot of lifestyle, a lot of lifestyle in the business. I call it lifestyle where people uh you know I think fundamentally just fogg dead horses that are never going to be success you know um but they got a nice comfortable life you know salaries they live where they want to live um they don't get out of their comfort zone so um I think the people part's extremely important um and then you know you got to have strong technical capability to identify you know the really good opport opportunities that fit with the within the business plan that's set. Um, and then you got to have an execution team, really good execution team. So, you know, to me, it's all about the people. Um, it's people who understand the business they're in. They understand the commercial aspects. They are good executors. They're good managers of probabilities. So, what does that mean? just find a great team of people and you know back that team of people. At the same time you know you you need to keep your eye out for I think strong technical players with strong technical people. Um you know the allinders they sometimes and may not be the most polished people. They may not be the ones who um that that are that are um that everyone knows, but they're technically extremely capable and very good explorers and they get themselves into the right place, you know, on a consistent basis, which gives you a good shot at, you know, getting a drill hit. M >> so and you know the one thing I didn't mention was it's really to be successful in this business you got to be super you got to love the business and be super passionate about it. Um you know like I'm 40 years and I'm like out of bed early in the morning. I'm like so motivated and then I'm motivated by discovery. I love, you know, the thrill and it goes back to that sort of bit of a long- winded start that I background that I gave you, Antonia, in that I think it's, you know, I think good geologists and good explorers, I equate them to like hunting dogs, you know, um, a dog hunting dog that's never been involved in a hunt or a let's not call it a kill, but a success. successful hunt um is will never be never make a very good hunting dog. So I think if if you haven't had that exposure to what success looks like in any industry really um but I think in this industry in particular then it's hard to to have that drive, passion, motivation, vision, know what it takes, the patience. Um, so I think that's a critical piece of it too. Look for passionate, driven people, um, who know what they're doing. Um, and then it gives you a better than better than even chance at having some success. >> How important is the way that the team is going to spend money to you when you're looking to get involved? and and in your case interesting here because I actually know that you'd like keeping GNA low whereas like for example where um and I know that's not up to you right now but nextgen's GNA is one that's discussed a lot in the industry just because of how high it is and how they market and the formula ones and everything else in between. So yeah, how do you look at how do you look at G& and then if you care to comment on on nextG right now that's interesting too. >> Yeah. Okay. Um let me just think of so I mean at the early stages you know the expiration phase whether it's Andina or C3 or Asia Meta or anything that I've been involved in early stage even when I worked for CRA and Rio Ginto you know we weren't wasting any money either but um you know the look I I just have some simple rules of thumbs I mean I think you know I I like to see 75% 75% of the money going into direct expiration. So, you know, 25% is the right number up to 30 in some cases because you've some places you've got say um you've got to do more work on government relations or community programs or various other things. Um but you know in terms of overhead GNA head office um teams of people etc you know about 30% is sort of the 25 to 30% is the right number and 70% of the money into the ground. If you do that then you give yourself a really good chance of um being successful. Mhm. >> Um but as you you know as a and look that's not a you know it's not as straightforward an answer as as it it should be or could be because it depends on what people include in their expiration costs versus their head office costs etc. So like for you know what is in the head office cost where do the salaries get paid from etc. So I like to break it down when we run a budget. The people that are involved directly in the the geologists who are in the field running the programs, they they're direct exploration costs. You know what is the head office costs is your administration, your office, your um uh your marketing and your corporate costs essentially. So that's the basket that I sort of say shouldn't be probably more 25 30% of your total total costs. >> So I think you know you got to look at it that way. Um in terms of nextgen look I like there is there's been a lot of criticism of nextg um around that. Um I haven't actually gone away and looked at okay what's the relative spend there versus spend on the project. Um, so I can't comment around those ratios. Um, but you know, investors investors seem to be very supportive of whatever it is that Lee's doing. Um, certainly having no trouble raising large amounts of capital. So, um, you know, I'm not one to be criticizing because to be honest, I don't know the detail around it. Um, it seems a little unusual to be sponsoring an F1 team as an equity dependent company, but you know, Lee might have a he might have a have good reasons for doing that and maybe, you know, his his uh investors are supportive of that. Um, I don't know the detail. >> Yeah, that's something that uh it's been a while since I spoke with Lee, but I'll have to get him back on and and um talk about that as well sometime soon. I want to go back to the geology with you though Tony here because I I recently spoke to a geologist who manages money and I asked him is there can I make money in this space as a non- geologist and he essentially told me there's really no hope for you and so there was a bit of a let down for me there as a retail investor but what what are the main things that that non- geos can look for when when looking at early stage projects >> yeah okay so I mean I'll just go back to what I said before and reiterate those things. So, I think if you're not a geologist, start with the people, right? You still can you you still be able to work out who's who are the people that are worth following and backing and um so that's number one. So, give yourself a you know, look at the track record of the people. But when I say that I mean do some proper diligence on the people like you know I know from the questions that you ask Antonio you're very you know you are very people focused so I think that's a good starting point right so go back to okay what are they who are the people what's their track record you know does this look like a lifestyle company what percentage of money is going into direct expiration you know are they flying around the world first class doing you know you know and spending half the budget on markets you know so so just start you know that's a that's that's a very important piece and you know I spent a lot of time on that myself right so as an as an investor I'm in fact I've almost after 40 years I have a I have a rule now um and that is if I don't know the people myself or the people are not known to people I trust that I'm unlikely to invest in. >> Mhm. >> So, um you know that's that's that piece. Now that said therefore my longerterm patient capital things that I'm thinking about backing for you know 3 to 5 years >> um or more. Um, and by the way, I haven't mentioned patience. Patience is a competitive advantage and competitive strength if you have it, particularly in today's world. Um, so so people and then in terms of okay, if you're not a geologist and you're looking at a project, I think there's a few simple rules that you sort of need to think about. Um firstly um is it in a proven terrain? Is it in a proven province? You know is someone going and looking for pferies in somewhere that has never been a pfrey discovered before? Probably not a great idea, right? So give yourself the best chance by you know and I'll use the example of my the companies I'm involved in and C3, right? C3s up in the Anderis Uanderless belt in Peru. You know, there's four there's four there's four tier one and tier 2 deposits there, right? And the grounds we put together a package of ground that's, you know, been very has never had any real expiration on in a worldass belt. So, that's a good starting point, you know. Um, you know, P Kennus in in Argentina, it's been 30 years in a private company next to 2.4 4 billion tons of43 copper. Not a bad place to be, you know. Um, you know, the Cabrasco in Colombia, you know, it's got multiple there's multiple pfries sort of in that district. So, that's that's a good starting point. You know, get look at the look at what, you know, is it in the right terrain and then how much work's been done, right? How mature is it? Like has there been not much work been a lot of work being done? do the people have the right expertise in that particular deposit type. Um, so you know there's bits and pieces of the puzzle that you can think about as a non-geeologist that are an important recipe for exploration success. So you in proven terrain the project hasn't had much work or it's had a lot of work. Um, the people really know what they're doing. They got a good track record. Um, and the footprint's big. You know, like I like to look for things where the footprints big, right? You know, you go to you go to the Ander oilers belt, this there's, you know, there's although the footprints are not that big there for certain reasons, but um, uh, you know, you look at Penis, there's huge alteration systems there. you look at uh FO, you know, FO, look at the size of the alteration system at FO. So look for things where there's scale, there's big footprint. Um they're relatively underexplored. The people know what they're doing. Um so there is there's a you know there's quite a lot of things I think there's a you don't have to be a geologist to work those things out. >> You're giving me hope. You're giving me hope. >> This has got to be systematic. I mean, it helps to be a geologist for sure, but you know, let's be let's be quite frank and and and honest here is that there's a lot of geologists that haven't found anything. Lots of them, right? >> Most of them, >> the majority, right? So, you know, thinking that being a geologist gives you, it's going to give you some advantage, of course, but um you know, if you don't have the right processes as a geologist, you're not going to be successful either. So you as a non-geeologist can actually be good at the processes, good at the, you know, working out how do you stack the probabilities in your favor through some of those things that I've talked about and probably others. Um, you know, are they spending the money in the ground? Are they the right people? Is it underexplored ground? Is the right place? Um, is it a big footprint? Um, you know, and then so, you know, I think there's plenty of plenty of room. I mean, there's there's some there's there's fund managers that make lots of money. Um, and they're not geologists uh in this this space. So, you can do it. >> Yeah. Well, talking about money and I I know you almost have to go here um Tony, but what about valuations? When you look at something like that and the team checks out and and the jurisdiction and the rocks and everything that you like there checks out, what's too much to pay for early stage exploration? And and interesting specifically with you again because and and fair disclaimer and honest confession I do own shares of C3 Metals but again 120 million market cap it's early stage exploration and Dena 100 million market cap early stage exploration isn't that too much and how do you know what's too much to pay for early stage. >> Yeah. Um okay so let's break that down into a couple of different things. So, um, C3, you have a major company spending $75 million to earn its interest in Jamaica. Um, it has, so you got to look at the sum of the parts. Um, so that's that's one piece. Uh, you've already got a number of pfries being drilled. They've either got grade or they haven't got tons, but you know, there's still a lot of work to be done there. They've got the standalone gold project and then they've got the khesi project up in the anders belt plus jasperi. So you look at jasperi jasperi now people have forgotten about jasperi but it's a fundamentally important piece when you look at the market cap of of C3 because Jasperi is it's about 55 million tons of 6.7% but it's actually got a very high grade piece in it as well. open pitable like less than probably one to one strip ratio uh oxide copper up in the and oilers belt and that could be developed into a mine by a small to mediumsiz producer. So that to me underpins the value of the company um in its own right that can be sold at some point or commercialized through a JV or something journey. you've got the so you sort of got to look at the sum of the parts I think um and say okay well this still makes sense you know hundred million dollars makes sense in this market given you've got Jasprody there you got a major joint venture and you're drilling you know one of the best looking orfrey scan targets in a proven belt um so you know the value proposition for me still stacks up otherwise I should be selling my shares too right So you know it's the same question you know if you you if you if you're not buying then you should be selling. >> Um now my entry point obviously is a bit lower. Um the second second piece is let's take the a little bit of a different profile which is Andina profile and the andina profile is the discoveries have actually been made. You got you got a number of orgrade intersections in Pikina central. You've got Pina Cis has only had two holes, but one hole's uh already sort of got all gray type intersections. Not good enough yet, but um it's got it's it's got signs and for a for for a first hole, it looks, you know, very encouraging. Um and then you got 2.4 billion tons sort of next door. So ultimately there's a value creation package that um that sits there at P Kennis. >> Mhm. You've got Manttow sitting down there. Yes, it's early stage, but it's next to a new discovery in the right geology and it's got indicative, you know, high-grade copper and gold rock chips. And then you have, you know, the Carrasco where you've got, you know, three exceptionally good, you know, big long, you know, grade intervals already. So, you know, I think it's still dirt cheap at the current if you look at the sum of the parts of those three projects relative to the market. Um, you know, it's one of the reasons that I've been, you know, I've put a lot of investment of my own money and time into Andina is because I see it as an, you know, as an asmmetric bet. you know, um the the downside is really protected by the quality of the assets and the fact the discoveries have already been made. Uh and they're it's each of them are in districts where there's a high likelihood of M&A in due course and the upside, you know, is is is is um you know, is open-ended and and looks exceptional. So, for me, that's bit of a no-brainer type of uh setup. Um, and you know, I think your entry going to your original question is that your entry price, your entry valuation, it's not necessarily price, but your entry valuation is always your best protection on the downside. So I think you know whether it's 100 million or 200 million or 10 million it's sort of not that relevant. You've got to go and say what is it what are the what are the sum of the parts worth? You know what are the sum of the parts worth? And I think if you break down C3 and you'll see that there's still the sum of the parts make them very compelling investments. Even at this point, >> I feel like we've only scratched the surface for for what's in your head or maybe not even. So, I really am looking forward to potentially another conversation. What am I forgetting to ask you though here at the end? What did you come here hoping to talk about that I failed to bring up? >> Uh, no, I think we covered most of the ground. Um, it's pretty wide ranging. I mean, it's around the core things that I'm, you can see that I'm pretty passionate about it. Um, I can talk about it all day. um if you'd like to um but you know it's a combination of investing investment in that sort of junior end and then you know how to manage that for success which is really you know I spend a huge amount of my time thinking about that I didn't mention the books books but you know I think we talked about it one other time you know I'm a very avid reader and an avid listener of podcasts and a lot of that's around understanding probabilities chance um you We we mentioned Annie Juke's book, you know, thinking in bets. So, I like to give that book to the CEOs and the expiration managers of any of the companies I'm involved in. I think the other one's called Quit. Um, and you know, it covers a lot of topics. You know, it's it's a professional poker player, but um or or an ex-professional poker player, but great books. and then you know Daniel Cannaman's works on you know just biases and uh you know then I listen to wide ranges of the world's best investors and the best explorers and you know then you know you you build a framework in your mind so I'd encourage anyone who's really wants to do well in this space to I live it and breathe it 24/7 sort of in my mind although my wife drives my wife crazy but um she's always asking me what do you thinking about and you know usually it's this topic. So um yeah I'd sort of encourage people to you know particularly like as you say I mean if you're a non geologist then all the stuff that I'm talking about relevant you got to you got to work every if you want to be successful in anything you got to work hard at it. Um, uh, >> well, does does Craig Perry have his catchphrase or essentially his checklist uh, size of the prize, cost of the test, chance of success? Does he have that from you? >> Uh, well, we've all grew up with it. Yeah. >> It's a It's actually comes from Rointto. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think he told me that story and and how uh how he looks at that too. And I'm seeing a lot of similarities here with you. So, um, it's funny to see it that way. But uh yeah, I know you have to go now though, Tony, and I've not been too respectful of your time, so I'll try to be that right now. Thank you so much for doing this. Really appreciate your time. >> All right. Good on you, Antonio. Thanks for having me on, and uh yeah, I hope it was uh people find it beneficial. Uh maybe we'll have a follow-up one day um at the dusty boot.
Find Good Mining Stocks Early (a no-BS method)
Summary
Transcript
Today on resource talks, a geologist with nearly four decades of dealmaking experience is talking to me about how to tell the good from the bad junior mining companies and projects. Just briefly for people watching or listening, if you want a summary of this conversation and all the other interviews that we do on Resource Talks, go to resourcealks.com. There's a free newsletter. He goes out once a week with a bullet point summary of all the conversations from the week before. The geologist in question's name is Tony Manini and he's backed and buried more projects than most of us will and have ever looked at. The first one was actually Sepon Sepon discovery in Laos. It's a 3 and a half million ounce gold and a 1 million ton copper resource which went into production back in 2002 when I was learning the alphabet and and although I still have difficulties with the alphabet Sepon is still in production today which is impressive. Um many other discoveries and notable happenings since and in between but Tony's an Aussie though so no time will be wasted on pleasantries here which means I'll be shutting up already and Tony I'll let you do the talking but first of all thank you for your time today. >> No worries. Thanks Antonia. Great to great to be on and uh looking forward to having a good chat. >> Uh I do as well and the pleasure is mine because I really did enjoy our chat at the uh Dirty Boot in in in Colorado last month. So I really think this will be helpful um to myself and also others out there. But for the record, I do have to start off every interview the way I I I always do with new guests, which is track record. Um what is yours? What's your track record in doing what you'll be preaching here today? and and more importantly, have you made more money than you've lost? >> Yeah. Okay. So, um as you mentioned, I'm a geologist with 40 years of background. Um so, this is I'll try to keep the answer pretty concise or as concise as I possibly can. Um so, over the journey, um I have been involved in you know quite a lot of success and some failures and we can talk about both of those. Um essentially I started as a geologist at uh CRA which was a predecessor to uh Riointo after CRA and Riointo merged around 1999. Uh I worked as an exploration geologist within Riointo 15 years in Riointo worked as everything really from the first day of expiration. So Greenfield's exploration started in diamonds with Rio uh then through base metals gold uh and you know uranium and various other things over a 15- year period. Um I was fortunate I guess in those early days to um work on very uh significant uranium discovery uh called Rud River in in Western Australia early. So that was it's always I think a good thing um as a young geologist to work on a project which is a new discovery the excitement that's around that and the growth of it. I wasn't involved in the discovery. I came in during the evaluation phase. So um that was great exposure. I had 5 years in Western Australia with CRA and then uh I was um called into the office of my boss at the time, Graeme Drew, who said that uh he he thought or or the company was starting I was opening an office up in Laos. Um and you know, he thought it'd be something that uh would be a good fit for for me from um so I didn't even know where Laos was. I'd only ever traveled out of Australia once when I was 14 years old with my parents. Uh my father's from Italy, so that was a trip back to the homeland. So I hardly knew where Laos was. Um but I'd always wanted to work um in the frontier areas that CRA were working in. At that time it was pretty much papu guinea and Indonesia. Um and so this was an extension sort of I guess of the Southeast Asian exploration effort and the company had made some great discoveries in PNG and Indonesia. So as somebody who was motivated by being involved in discoveries um the LA opportunity was like okay I'm going to a front a new place there has been very little work done uh the company tells me there's a lot of prospectivity so um you know I was I was attracted by that um I subsequently went to Laos for 3 months to have a look and stayed there for well around 10 years of which I had two to two first two years in Thailand, northern Thailand, uh eight years in Laos and then I had quite a bit of time in Indonesia back and forth. So that was sort of that initial phase. During that during that eight years in Laos um we um the team that I led uh really um discovered and evaluated the Sepon deposits. So uh that was uh you know when you're I guess involved in something really from the first day. So uh it's it's a it's a great learning curve for any any geologist and I think there's a sort of aatic here um that we can talk to later on Antonio but and it's really that exposure to success I think is is a quite a critical ingredient. So look, we, you know, we, it was a small team. Um, we did a lot of reconnaissance work. We made a discovery. I think you said 3 and a half million ounces of gold, but I think it was actually 5 million ounces in the end. Um, and you know, really significant copper deposit. So that was ultimately we worked on that. um we sort of did the early exploration work, we did the evaluation work and you know everything in in a new frontier area. So it was on the Ho Chi Min trail in Laos, one of the most heavily bombed places actually on the planet. So we had to um we managed uh large ordinance clearance teams. We had um you know uh communities that had never seen essentially um you know westerners uh there was oxen horses and carts and you know there was progression to roads and cars and motorcycles. So managing sort of all the community expectations managing environment managing that was a great learning curve and the geology was you know exceptional and exciting. So um you know we we had some great consultants come and help us on the project. You learn from all of those you know you go away to you know it was a great training ground um CRA Rio Tinto extremely successful exploration group um and you know having that exposure to so many good people um was experienced you know it's very hard to replicate. So 15 years uh you know there uh in Riointo decided to sell the project um in the late '9s we got the gold price was $250 and the copper price was 63 cents and we were selling a project in Laos. Ultimately there was very little interest in it because of those uh you know those things that I just talked about you know Ho Chi Min Trail bottom of the market. Uh there was some insurgency still running in the northern part of the country. So it was you know it was a it was a uh it was a big ask for people at that time and the capital markets were shut. you know, even if you were interested, you probably couldn't put the money together. And that was subsequently what happened in the in the deal. We ran the commercial, I ran the commercial side of the transaction. So um so I'd taken the project effectively from through the exploration phase through the evaluation studies phase um where we had resources and then ultimately I transitioned um into a commercial role to to run the um the devestment of the of the assets that was uh subsequently acquired by Oxy Limited which was a junior company um run by Owen Hegy who's been my business partner ever since um Owen uh had been 25 years at Rio Tintel CRA as the head of the copper and gold business in Asia. He was running this junior company having come off a success himself with a management buyout of another asset within the group and he uh was well known to the company obviously and that track record that he brought and he was really the only one who put up um uh some upfront money and convinced Rio Tinto to stay in for 20% of the asset. So >> um so that was uh that was that that transaction got done and then I subsequently um transitioned well asked me you know if I was interested in joining Oxiana to continue the development of the project which I'd worked on for for eight years to take it actually through visibility into production. So that was an opportunity that was um it's sort of like I was going to say uh too good to refuse. because it was too good to refuse from a career um uh development perspective. But uh at the same time, Riot Tinto had offered me my dream job, which was to be the BD head uh over in Canada in Vancouver, based in Vancouver at that time. So, I've always had a passion for the capital markets, the junior end of town, and I've been an investor in that since I've been 15 years old. So um you know so that was that was a big um you know I was a bit torn at that point in time but um this was you know Owen convinced me that this was a company making opportunity a life making opportunity. So effectively joined the Oxiana team. I think there was three or four of us. Um and we set about you know developing the Sepon projects and uh raised small amounts of money and you know gradually um gradually got the capital together to put it through feasibility study. Uh first the gold mine into production very you know small small gold mine then we expanded the gold mine and then off the back of that we built a big copper operation which had a lot of unique characteristics to it and uh you know all of that was it was incredible experience as you would anticipate a frontier new development spending $800 million in Laos in the early 2000s to build you know a big business. So then we, you know, we ran very hard and I won't go through it all in detail, but over the next effectively over an 8-year period, we grew that company off the back of that uh Sepon development. We grew the company from a you know I think a five million around a three or five million market cap I can't remember now but it was a very small junior company into a $6.5 billion multi-asset producer so we you know we we built Sepon copper and gold and copper then we we did a we did a buy out of a a mine called Golden Grove in Western Australia from Newmont was an encore asset we did a redevelopment of that subsequently got uh that was the first bit of luck that you know everyone needs to have a little bit of luck. So the zinc price went for a run and it was a high-grade zinc mine and it made a lot of money pretty quickly. Uh we got into prominent hill very early. Junior company had discovered it minural resources. Um I think most of the people looked at it thought it was quite small. I had a look at it and had a detailed look at the geology and thought that there had been a key a fundamental um piece had been maybe misinterpreted. So we farmed into the project. Uh I said to Owen, we're going to go over here. We're going to drill four holes and if these holes hit, then we're away to the races and we need to take this company over pretty quickly. So um subsequently we stepped out uh on a on a bit of a different interpretation the geology the holes hit you know hundreds of meters of all grade copper and gold and we took over the junior company I think for $90 million and then we spent a billion dollars to take it right through drill out resources feasibility study and built a mine uh in South Australia and all of that was done in a world record time of seven years from start to finish. So uh and that mine's operating today. So that asset is in the portfolio of OS minerals that uh just recently got uh sold to BHP. >> Mhm. >> So um that was Prominent Hill gold prominent and then we had another another project in Indonesia Matabi which uh we were putting develop. So four you know four oper four operations and another development project and then we merged the company uh 2008 uh just before the GFC um everything got crunched that was with ZFX and Oxiana merged to become Ozmin Minerals or partly Ozmin Minerals um some of the assets were sold to MMG the Chinese minerals group um and the assets got split So MMG went on to operate some of those. We bought the golden growth back mine back from them years later. Um and then um OS Minerals was formed and I was part of the executive team at OS Minerals. I stayed there for a short period of time and then I left uh to go back to my entrepreneurial pursuits which was uh and formed an incubator company called Tigers Realm Group. So um Tigers Realm Group essentially we put together private capital um myself Owen and a group of investors who'd made good money out of Oxiana put private money together we went and um acquired assets globally um predominantly copper gold but we had some met coal and we had some uranium as well and we used our private capital to work to acquire them work them up and then ultimately when we needed larger trenches of capital to to up the spend rate, drill them out, etc. We went to the private uh to the public markets. So, uh out of that incubator company, we um we had Tiger's Realm Coal where we discoal. We um you know we we picked that up. We we essentially we drilled that out. Um discovered you know some true really really high quality met coal deposits on the coast in far eastern Russia. Took that all the way through um studies uh and built the mine and then the mine was sort of expanded. It was a very hard uh hard yards to to get to do that. Um but ultimately got buil we built it. We we we did the work. It got built um and it was scaling up and starting to go well and the sanctions hit about 3 or four years ago and ultimately um essentially lost control of the asset at that point in time. So that was uh that was uh Tigers Ron Cole um was producing you know I was producing about 1.2 2 million tons of met coal a year at that point. Um then and probably the then we had some Indonesian assets which are in a junior company called Asia Met Resources where I'm still the chairman. Um and we've taken that all the way through discovery taken it through feasibility and ready to build. Now it's a shovel ready copper project in project financing. So that's uh Asia Met listed uh on the London name. Uh again been a hard grind there. Indonesia is not the easiest place, but you know, we have a lot of lot of lot of background and experience there and been able to get it through to this point and, you know, subsequently get the mine built and uh and then probably the the one that most people from the Canadian side would know is NextG Energy. So, um, NextGen Energy, we we, um, uh, the chairman of NextGen Energy, Chris McFaden, actually worked with us at the time. Uh, Chris Newly Courier. Um, I'd known or some of us had known Andy Brown, who's the geologist, um, from North Limited, you know, very highly respected geologist, uh, had quite a lot of uranium experience as well in the past. So anyway, they brought this opportunity in Canada to us which was not was not the arrow package. Um was was actually another package over um near Ruff Rider, a discovery that Riointo subsequently acquired from Hatheror exploration. So was piece of ground next to that. That was the basis of the deal. We seated um Lee and Andy for the first $5 million at 5 cents, which sounds pretty good when the stock's trading about 13 bucks today. That was about 11 years or something ago. Um so they then subsequently uh you know got onto the opportunity to pick up the AR package. um we we supported them to do that as in you know we we we were happy to um I guess dilute very early in the piece um for them to do that off the back of what we considered to be you know very exciting package and that's what it turned out to be worldass discovery made in the second drill hole so the geohysics was flown the the holes were cited by Andy and the second hole you know drilled a worldass deposit the rest is history there. Um so that was uh NextG Energy. Um and then the other thing actually we talked about this earlier on Antonio the Predis was the precursor to C3 Metals. So C3 Metals again TSX listed working in Jamaica. Um we picked up the properties in Jamaica in that incubator company. Um we'd worked them. It was a difficult time. We farmed them out uh to Oz Minerals. O spent about $20 million. they ultimately there's a lot of complexity in this around the deal packaging up the deals and involved which I won't spare the details so we did all that um and then that's in the C3 now um and you know we've had a very clear business plan with C3 which we've been evolving but that's uh so that's you know that's got a market cap uh of over hund00 million today um so it's it's it's$20 million I think it is thereabouts um and you know drilling some great targets in a market which is hungry for new new copper and it's it's got some outstanding things to do. Um and then around 10 years ago 11 years ago um we set up uh EMR Capital which is um a private equity firm uh specializing in the resources sector. The strategy of EMR is very different to the incubator models and things that I just talked about in the junior space. It's really look it's operational turnarounds. So we buy existing producing assets or assets on care and maintenance where the infrastructure's been built uh and we put capital and you know we've got a very through that background that I've just described got a very strong operating uh team of people. We put good people to work with capital with a very clear plan to create value out of the asset. Not relying on commodity price to drive value. It's more it's it's actually fundamentally what we can do with the asset to create value. Turn those assets around um optimize them expand them and then ultimately on sell. So that's the MR private equity business. We run about $3 billion on the behalf of US uh pensions, uh university endowments and families, wealthy families. So um so that's uh that's EMR. We've been going about uh 11 years or so. Um then uh for my sins, I've do a couple of other things in the mining services industry uh privately. But um I think going to your question, you know, in terms of value creation, so um I think you know, we've had our ups and downs. I think it's fair to say anybody in this industry that doesn't have ups and downs is um probably not really from this industry, but um uh we've certainly, you know, we've, you know, I'm I'm very proud to say we've created uh an enormous amount of value for shareholders, for stakeholders, for governments, um you know, for for lots of different people. uh and made made a bit of money for ourselves along the way. Um but you know, we're very proud of our track record in terms of not just discovering things, developing things, but you know, our environmental standards, our social standards, um and everything else. And that's really, you know, I I always point people to the fact that major companies, New Pneumont, Riotinto, um, you know, Anglo Gold, um, you know, many of the large companies are happy to sell assets to us as good stewards of those assets. So to me that's uh you know that's a that says that we've been doing something right along the way. >> I think that's that's fair to say and a lot of interesting things there that you're touching upon. I'm not hearing much about Andina or it used to be Pampa which you just recently got involved with. Uh and that actually is is one of the interesting parts for me here because that's really what I'm wondering here. How do you how do you recognize stuff like that where you do want to get involved early on? Like what are the what are the bones of a good junior if you will? And at first I thought you know I'd start asking questions about the geology and whatnot because you are a go that's what you do but it actually makes more sense you know having having heard the entire >> track record here makes more sense to ask you what you think the beginning of a of a good junior is. So, so where do you start when you first find out about a company like Indino, whatever else it might be? What's the first thing you look at? >> Yeah. Okay. Um, so really, I mean, fundamentally, you've got to look for um, you know, it's an easy it's an easy thing to say. It's a harder thing to do to look for quality projects that have high probability of being an economic proposition. So from day one, you got to look at something and say, do I believe that this asset can one day make mine? So that's fundamentally how I would look at things and that translates into what people call company maker assets. So you know does it have the shape, size, um footprint, um location, all the fundamental things that ultimately um could make an economic proposition. So that's the really the starting criteria. Um, and you know, it's interesting. I've just run you through the history. Um, you know, there's a there's a couple of younger entrepreneurs that have come through our organizations that are quite prominent in the markets now. And um, Craig Perry is one which who's well known the markets in Vanc out of um, Vancouver. Um and you know they've got um you know some some really good quality projects and you know created multi you know billiond dollar plus companies. You know Craig Craig was with us for for many years. Charles Funk who's got Helier uh you know he's got production and he's growing his production and building out the mine. And then James Decrepy over here in the Oz market with Catalyst which is you know essentially you know billion and a half2 billion dollar type market cat company. So all of those sort of younger guys came through I guess with the same DNA and that is start with you know start with assets that can clearly have a pathway to being an economic proposition. So that's the starting point. Um how do you find them? Um so so there's many different angles Antonio as to what that looks like. So the andina I'll use the andina example. So Andina, we've taken an approach with Andina and that is secure under or off the radar tier one or tier 2 copper opportunities in South America where there's a high probability of M&A. So um that's sort of the one key point of starting thesis and then we put together um you know a strong team that needs to execute on high quality work drilling studies adds very significant value derisk the projects. it goes to that economic proposition derisk um and then define what that economic proposition looks like that pathway and economic proposition. So at the same time as you sort of got you know strong technical people you got strong commercial people to secure the deals in the first place you also need to build out a strong capital markets profile um and a good share registry and we talked about the share registers earlier on um where you've got supportive capital through the journey because it is a journey and you got to have supportive capital people who have done this before they understand what the journey is they understand what the risks are and they're backing you and the team to actually execute well um and understanding it's a probabilities game but by having the right recipe you know you get the probability stacked uh into into your favor and you know there's a I think you know many people understand that this business expiration is a venture capital business. Um, a lot of people don't understand it's a venture capital business and how you manage a venture capital business, but um, it's a probabilities based business. It's a,30 prospects make one mind. Nobody can play a,030 to one. So you've got to you've got to look at okay how do you get yourself from,30 down to a manageable uh number and you know I think that manageable number is somewhere between six and 10. Um and then you know it goes to all of these things that say okay you got a very clear business plan. You've got to look at the assets from the start as being potential economic propositions. you got to build the team and the capital around it and then execute well to deliver a liquidity event at the end of the day or build a mine um if you if that's uh what you intend to do as part of the business plan. >> So I think um that's sort of in a business context and then how do you find the projects I think was your other question. um feel free to to um jump in. But I I guess um through that through that 40 years of sort of global diversified experience, you get to work with and network and make contacts with a lot of people globally. So when I go looking for a project, we set very specific criteria as to what the project needs to look like. Um and then you know we go out to the network uh and the network's network and various others and you know things like I would call around some of the most experienced geologists in the world and say hey you know um where's the one project that you worked on with let's call it Anglo go Anglo American or with Riotinto or whoever that you worked for that for whatever some reason um you just never got to do what you wanted to do on that project and you think it's it's got great potential. So that's just one sort of way that I would approach it. But I think we're very, you know, one of the I think the key thing is that we're very particular about what we get into uh in the first place geologically um and you know the ability to execute. Now in Andina, we've sort of um part of the strategy in Andina is to I've already said tier one and tier 2 copper opportunities, but we wanted to find things that had already been had all grade intersection in them. So they'd already been drilled, but for a one reason or another, they hadn't actually been pursued. Um and you know there's history around both of the projects that um Andina has got in the portfolio. Um the two core projects being P Kennis and the uh through the takeover of Rugby Resources the Cabrasco project in Colombia. So both of these have had um different histories but uh they are overlooked projects which have well you know what I would put into the tier one tier 2 you know uh intersections so big wide intervals of what look to be potentially economic grades. Um so you know that's been a key driver. If you look at you know the say let's take Robert Freedelland for example. Robert Freedelland, you know, has a fundamental um uh I guess motivation to find worldclass deposits and pretty much will go uh wherever those deposits may be because his track record ultimately he can put the capital together to advance them. And if they are truly tier one or tier two, then you can back solve all the other issues that come with that over time. Uh the Londons have sort of done the same thing up in the up in um the the high Andes there in Argentina with FO and you know that's you know an overnight success that probably took 20 years. So um you know I think Antonio that maybe gives a little bit of a flavor as to you know the way that we think about things. So it's firstly driven by the asset profile and then it's really about getting the right execution team. Um it's about building the right capital markets profile to support the the development with with capital that it needs. Uh it's not easy um you know with the cyclicity and the volatility of our markets but you just need to be able to to keep them alive um and uh you know put the capital together to be able to to advance them and drive them forward. Um so yeah I think they're all you know pretty all all important things. H there's lots to touch upon there but actually the beginning of it of your answer that was I think one of the more interesting points for me because you said you should ask yourself early on will it be a mine and and I suppose that makes sense from your perspective as an operator but then at the same time it doesn't have to be a mine in order for me as a retail investor to make money on it right I mean stocks go up and down for um for making a discovery essentially or not making a discovery in that case so does Do I still have to keep that approach even you know from my sort of retail perspective? Do I always have to look for a mine or am I looking for discoveries? >> No. No. So um I I so dis a discovery what is the the right way to put it? So when I say a mind, I'm saying okay, if it's a discovery, then it's a discovery which has a a footprint to it that says that it's going to be a mine. So it's not like you have to be the miner or you have to take it through to be a mine. I mean, look at, you know, great bear's a terrific example, right? They they basically drilled a big deposit out over time and then ultimately sold it without a resource on it. So, but you know, everybody that looked at it from a distance knew that by the scale and grade it was going to be mine. So, um I think that's really what I'm saying. Same thing with NextG Energy. You know, it's it's it's like, you know, it's a world-class deposit. It's going to be a mine. Camoa Cakula, you know, the Pilo Mining. Um, you know, and there's other there's others that are there's lots of others that um, you know, it's it's really about does it have the the the shape, size, grade. I mean, I see so many times, you know, so-called discoveries where people, you know, might be drilling, you know, hundreds of meters of 2.1. Well, you know, that's never going to be a mine. unless it's got some real peculiarity that um but um you know I think absolutely you're 100% right um retail investors uh have the opportunity to participate in the discovery phase they don't they don't need to be there for the for the mind phase in fact you know as an investor myself uh and the junior companies that I'm involved in you know the the main focus for those companies is really on the discovery phase um and ultimately somebody else builds it. So um even though I've been involved in multi many builds um it doesn't necessarily need to be the focus of a junior company. In fact I think junior companies probably not you know that's not their skill set and typically when a junior company you know tries to take shouldn't say typically but often when a junior company tries to transition to a minor it's a rocky road. Um particularly with a single asset it's it's a rocky road. So, you know, I think, you know, there's there's there's a role to play for the junior explorer and, you know, there's a role to play for the bigger guys, you know, the the the medium small to mediumsiz developers and the and the large, you know, majors. So, you know, so it's it's it's about knowing your where your strengths lie, where your skill sets lie, um and what what space and which part of the business site uh that you actually um you know that you that you're trying to to create value from. >> Yeah. When you start looking at stuff like that or for stuff like that, what are kind of the the immediate red flags that you look for? Is it is it corporate level? Do you start with the rocks and you're looking for like faulty minology, metallergy? What are you looking for? >> Yeah, all of the above. Um, so you know there's a I guess a there's an informal checklist if you like in your mind. So number one, does it have you know all grades to start with? Um number two is it in a location that um you can devel you you can execute you can you know you can operate in uh that's very important. Um that's that's socially environmentally um you know services access uh all of those things that go into just enabling you to do the early stage exploration work. And look, you know, we're pretty good expiration jars are pretty good at solving for a lot of those sorts of issues, you know, access and water and various other things in the early phases. But, you know, I'd like to see an asset that's got, you know, it's got it's no point in finding something that's extremely good in a inside a national park, for example. Um, you know, it's it's so so are there any showstoppers? So I call them showstoppers, you know, potential showstoppers. No, as it got demonstrated all grades and widths. Um, I like the I like things where there's a definitive path to a definitive test. So I like definitive tests because ultimately to be successful as the same way as to be successful as an investor is the same way to be successful as an explorer and that is to essentially cut your cut your losses early. um the things that are not uh when the original thesis um hasn't stacked up uh or you divert start diverting from your original thesis, you need to cut those things early and that's one of the most difficult things for both investors and for explorers to do. Uh but it's fundamentally critical to a probabilities management business which is what this is. I know you that's actually that last part is funny because that's something you told me um in the dusty boot as well. You said if someone asks you what is your job and uh a geologist tells you that he's anything else but a probabilities manager, you might want to you might want to look elsewhere. Um what talk to me a little bit more about that. What do what do you mean a probability manager? and and again it goes back to the fact that that most things most things will never really make it through to to production but not even to discovery. So yeah talk to me about that. >> Yeah. Okay. Um so look I mean if you sort of break it down into its simplest form what is you know what is expiration? So firstly I've said a number of times through this interview you it's a venture capital business. So you got to understand what is a venture capital business and a venture capital business is effectively as it's described but it's you know it's it has you know I I mentioned a,030 to1 but let's assume we can get it down to a manageable level um it's you know the probabilities of success are call it 1 in 10. So then we have to manage that the one in 10 to drive a successful outcome. So what is expiration fundamentally? It's data collection and it's pattern recognition in data. Um and then acting on that by acting appropriately on the patterns in the data. So that's why it's very important to have um a very clear plan and gating posts in terms of okay if we see this we do this if we don't see this we do that. Um but you need to have a pathway which is either gated to take you forward or gated to get you out of that asset. So, it may be that look, we drilled the holes, it doesn't look big enough. Um, let's on sell it. Uh, it may be this thing's a dead duck and let's just cut our losses and get out of this because it fundamentally hasn't hasn't uh the thesis or the gate posts that we set for it. Um, and you cut those. So you you then take the better ones forward and then ultimately you rebuild your pipeline with better quality things and you continue to manage the probabilities that way. Um it's the same with investing the way I think about it. Okay, I can't do,330 to1. I take 10 I can manage 10. Let's just call it we let's just call it for the sake of it 10 $1 million bets. That's $10 million. Um okay. I I know that if I do if I execute well on the um on the venture capital business that I just described that I I I I should be able to get one of those in the 20 10 to 20x bracket, maybe better. I then should be able to get two of those into the 3 to 5x bracket. I then have another two that probably I might make a little bit on. I might break even. Um, and then I'm going to have two or three that, you know, they haven't shaped up for whatever reason. And the most critical thing with those things is I don't keep spending money on on them. I keep utilizing resources on them. I cut them loose early. So, you know, it's not an easy thing to do. Um, me personally, I even when I was young and didn't have a lot of money, uh, I was always prepared to cut my losses, sometimes very substantial losses early, uh, to concentrate on the bigger things. So, I think you got to have the right temperament for that. Not that many people have the right temperament for that. Even for me today after 40 years, it's a hard thing to do. Um my 22year-old son says to me, "Dad, you know, like it's uh stick to your plan." So um you know, so I think there that's when I say probabilities management business, that's I think hopefully you know through that description that's sort of how I think about. So that's both investing and in the expiration uh business as well. So you know and and let's take Andina's got three projects. Um you know I'd love them all to be successful and shape up as mines but ultimately you know our downside is protected by the quality of the assets we have and we've got three of them and you know one of those um you know hopefully turns into a tier one worldclass asset. Um, and you know, maybe if we're really lucky, we get another one that's um, turns out to be good. Um, but um, you know, the probabilities are probably stacked against us to get three out of three. >> Yeah. Um, and it's essentially you you figuring out how not to put money in in stuff that will lower those probabilities for you. Um, that might be an approach worth taking here as well. How do you what are the immediate red flags in in your process? What is it that you're looking for that? >> Yeah. >> Yep. Yeah. So, look, um I'm I'm very big on people. Um so, the team um so spend I think spend a disproportionate amount of your time diligencing the people. I think that's super critical. There's no surprises when you if you you know people people often ask why why are there a small number of people in this industry like a Ross Bey that you mentioned before or a Robert Freedelland or you know and and there's a number of these people around you know Richard Wark or you know why are they the successful guys here in Australia we've got some great entrepreneurs too and you know but they but the people have been involved in these things three times or you know four times and then you've got thousands of people who have been involved in success. So then you say, well, why is that? Right? And you got to you sort of drill down and you know, I think they're people who a they've got um the ability to build really good teams. That's, you know, super critical. They're not they don't necessarily need to be the best people themselves, but they got the ability to build really good teams, attract great people, technical, commercial, you know, country management, you know, all the different aspects that are that that go into it. They understand what the business is. Um, they take risk, but they manage risk accordingly. They manage those probabilities well. Um and then fundamentally over a long period of time you know they they get repeat successes off the back of off the back of that formula which only strengthens over time. So people is critical right so good people um will okay if this project doesn't shape up they're going to give you another shot because they'll find another good project. And you know, if you've got long-term, if you got a bit of a longerterm and patient view, um, you know, most people probably reinvent themselves and find another great project or another good project to give you another shot. They won't walk away and say, "It's a dead dog." And everyone loses their money. Too bad. Um, so, so I think people are really important. There's a lot of lifestyle, a lot of lifestyle in the business. I call it lifestyle where people uh you know I think fundamentally just fogg dead horses that are never going to be success you know um but they got a nice comfortable life you know salaries they live where they want to live um they don't get out of their comfort zone so um I think the people part's extremely important um and then you know you got to have strong technical capability to identify you know the really good opport opportunities that fit with the within the business plan that's set. Um, and then you got to have an execution team, really good execution team. So, you know, to me, it's all about the people. Um, it's people who understand the business they're in. They understand the commercial aspects. They are good executors. They're good managers of probabilities. So, what does that mean? just find a great team of people and you know back that team of people. At the same time you know you you need to keep your eye out for I think strong technical players with strong technical people. Um you know the allinders they sometimes and may not be the most polished people. They may not be the ones who um that that are that are um that everyone knows, but they're technically extremely capable and very good explorers and they get themselves into the right place, you know, on a consistent basis, which gives you a good shot at, you know, getting a drill hit. M >> so and you know the one thing I didn't mention was it's really to be successful in this business you got to be super you got to love the business and be super passionate about it. Um you know like I'm 40 years and I'm like out of bed early in the morning. I'm like so motivated and then I'm motivated by discovery. I love, you know, the thrill and it goes back to that sort of bit of a long- winded start that I background that I gave you, Antonia, in that I think it's, you know, I think good geologists and good explorers, I equate them to like hunting dogs, you know, um, a dog hunting dog that's never been involved in a hunt or a let's not call it a kill, but a success. successful hunt um is will never be never make a very good hunting dog. So I think if if you haven't had that exposure to what success looks like in any industry really um but I think in this industry in particular then it's hard to to have that drive, passion, motivation, vision, know what it takes, the patience. Um, so I think that's a critical piece of it too. Look for passionate, driven people, um, who know what they're doing. Um, and then it gives you a better than better than even chance at having some success. >> How important is the way that the team is going to spend money to you when you're looking to get involved? and and in your case interesting here because I actually know that you'd like keeping GNA low whereas like for example where um and I know that's not up to you right now but nextgen's GNA is one that's discussed a lot in the industry just because of how high it is and how they market and the formula ones and everything else in between. So yeah, how do you look at how do you look at G& and then if you care to comment on on nextG right now that's interesting too. >> Yeah. Okay. Um let me just think of so I mean at the early stages you know the expiration phase whether it's Andina or C3 or Asia Meta or anything that I've been involved in early stage even when I worked for CRA and Rio Ginto you know we weren't wasting any money either but um you know the look I I just have some simple rules of thumbs I mean I think you know I I like to see 75% 75% of the money going into direct expiration. So, you know, 25% is the right number up to 30 in some cases because you've some places you've got say um you've got to do more work on government relations or community programs or various other things. Um but you know in terms of overhead GNA head office um teams of people etc you know about 30% is sort of the 25 to 30% is the right number and 70% of the money into the ground. If you do that then you give yourself a really good chance of um being successful. Mhm. >> Um but as you you know as a and look that's not a you know it's not as straightforward an answer as as it it should be or could be because it depends on what people include in their expiration costs versus their head office costs etc. So like for you know what is in the head office cost where do the salaries get paid from etc. So I like to break it down when we run a budget. The people that are involved directly in the the geologists who are in the field running the programs, they they're direct exploration costs. You know what is the head office costs is your administration, your office, your um uh your marketing and your corporate costs essentially. So that's the basket that I sort of say shouldn't be probably more 25 30% of your total total costs. >> So I think you know you got to look at it that way. Um in terms of nextgen look I like there is there's been a lot of criticism of nextg um around that. Um I haven't actually gone away and looked at okay what's the relative spend there versus spend on the project. Um, so I can't comment around those ratios. Um, but you know, investors investors seem to be very supportive of whatever it is that Lee's doing. Um, certainly having no trouble raising large amounts of capital. So, um, you know, I'm not one to be criticizing because to be honest, I don't know the detail around it. Um, it seems a little unusual to be sponsoring an F1 team as an equity dependent company, but you know, Lee might have a he might have a have good reasons for doing that and maybe, you know, his his uh investors are supportive of that. Um, I don't know the detail. >> Yeah, that's something that uh it's been a while since I spoke with Lee, but I'll have to get him back on and and um talk about that as well sometime soon. I want to go back to the geology with you though Tony here because I I recently spoke to a geologist who manages money and I asked him is there can I make money in this space as a non- geologist and he essentially told me there's really no hope for you and so there was a bit of a let down for me there as a retail investor but what what are the main things that that non- geos can look for when when looking at early stage projects >> yeah okay so I mean I'll just go back to what I said before and reiterate those things. So, I think if you're not a geologist, start with the people, right? You still can you you still be able to work out who's who are the people that are worth following and backing and um so that's number one. So, give yourself a you know, look at the track record of the people. But when I say that I mean do some proper diligence on the people like you know I know from the questions that you ask Antonio you're very you know you are very people focused so I think that's a good starting point right so go back to okay what are they who are the people what's their track record you know does this look like a lifestyle company what percentage of money is going into direct expiration you know are they flying around the world first class doing you know you know and spending half the budget on markets you know so so just start you know that's a that's that's a very important piece and you know I spent a lot of time on that myself right so as an as an investor I'm in fact I've almost after 40 years I have a I have a rule now um and that is if I don't know the people myself or the people are not known to people I trust that I'm unlikely to invest in. >> Mhm. >> So, um you know that's that's that piece. Now that said therefore my longerterm patient capital things that I'm thinking about backing for you know 3 to 5 years >> um or more. Um, and by the way, I haven't mentioned patience. Patience is a competitive advantage and competitive strength if you have it, particularly in today's world. Um, so so people and then in terms of okay, if you're not a geologist and you're looking at a project, I think there's a few simple rules that you sort of need to think about. Um firstly um is it in a proven terrain? Is it in a proven province? You know is someone going and looking for pferies in somewhere that has never been a pfrey discovered before? Probably not a great idea, right? So give yourself the best chance by you know and I'll use the example of my the companies I'm involved in and C3, right? C3s up in the Anderis Uanderless belt in Peru. You know, there's four there's four there's four tier one and tier 2 deposits there, right? And the grounds we put together a package of ground that's, you know, been very has never had any real expiration on in a worldass belt. So, that's a good starting point, you know. Um, you know, P Kennus in in Argentina, it's been 30 years in a private company next to 2.4 4 billion tons of43 copper. Not a bad place to be, you know. Um, you know, the Cabrasco in Colombia, you know, it's got multiple there's multiple pfries sort of in that district. So, that's that's a good starting point. You know, get look at the look at what, you know, is it in the right terrain and then how much work's been done, right? How mature is it? Like has there been not much work been a lot of work being done? do the people have the right expertise in that particular deposit type. Um, so you know there's bits and pieces of the puzzle that you can think about as a non-geeologist that are an important recipe for exploration success. So you in proven terrain the project hasn't had much work or it's had a lot of work. Um, the people really know what they're doing. They got a good track record. Um, and the footprint's big. You know, like I like to look for things where the footprints big, right? You know, you go to you go to the Ander oilers belt, this there's, you know, there's although the footprints are not that big there for certain reasons, but um, uh, you know, you look at Penis, there's huge alteration systems there. you look at uh FO, you know, FO, look at the size of the alteration system at FO. So look for things where there's scale, there's big footprint. Um they're relatively underexplored. The people know what they're doing. Um so there is there's a you know there's quite a lot of things I think there's a you don't have to be a geologist to work those things out. >> You're giving me hope. You're giving me hope. >> This has got to be systematic. I mean, it helps to be a geologist for sure, but you know, let's be let's be quite frank and and and honest here is that there's a lot of geologists that haven't found anything. Lots of them, right? >> Most of them, >> the majority, right? So, you know, thinking that being a geologist gives you, it's going to give you some advantage, of course, but um you know, if you don't have the right processes as a geologist, you're not going to be successful either. So you as a non-geeologist can actually be good at the processes, good at the, you know, working out how do you stack the probabilities in your favor through some of those things that I've talked about and probably others. Um, you know, are they spending the money in the ground? Are they the right people? Is it underexplored ground? Is the right place? Um, is it a big footprint? Um, you know, and then so, you know, I think there's plenty of plenty of room. I mean, there's there's some there's there's fund managers that make lots of money. Um, and they're not geologists uh in this this space. So, you can do it. >> Yeah. Well, talking about money and I I know you almost have to go here um Tony, but what about valuations? When you look at something like that and the team checks out and and the jurisdiction and the rocks and everything that you like there checks out, what's too much to pay for early stage exploration? And and interesting specifically with you again because and and fair disclaimer and honest confession I do own shares of C3 Metals but again 120 million market cap it's early stage exploration and Dena 100 million market cap early stage exploration isn't that too much and how do you know what's too much to pay for early stage. >> Yeah. Um okay so let's break that down into a couple of different things. So, um, C3, you have a major company spending $75 million to earn its interest in Jamaica. Um, it has, so you got to look at the sum of the parts. Um, so that's that's one piece. Uh, you've already got a number of pfries being drilled. They've either got grade or they haven't got tons, but you know, there's still a lot of work to be done there. They've got the standalone gold project and then they've got the khesi project up in the anders belt plus jasperi. So you look at jasperi jasperi now people have forgotten about jasperi but it's a fundamentally important piece when you look at the market cap of of C3 because Jasperi is it's about 55 million tons of 6.7% but it's actually got a very high grade piece in it as well. open pitable like less than probably one to one strip ratio uh oxide copper up in the and oilers belt and that could be developed into a mine by a small to mediumsiz producer. So that to me underpins the value of the company um in its own right that can be sold at some point or commercialized through a JV or something journey. you've got the so you sort of got to look at the sum of the parts I think um and say okay well this still makes sense you know hundred million dollars makes sense in this market given you've got Jasprody there you got a major joint venture and you're drilling you know one of the best looking orfrey scan targets in a proven belt um so you know the value proposition for me still stacks up otherwise I should be selling my shares too right So you know it's the same question you know if you you if you if you're not buying then you should be selling. >> Um now my entry point obviously is a bit lower. Um the second second piece is let's take the a little bit of a different profile which is Andina profile and the andina profile is the discoveries have actually been made. You got you got a number of orgrade intersections in Pikina central. You've got Pina Cis has only had two holes, but one hole's uh already sort of got all gray type intersections. Not good enough yet, but um it's got it's it's got signs and for a for for a first hole, it looks, you know, very encouraging. Um and then you got 2.4 billion tons sort of next door. So ultimately there's a value creation package that um that sits there at P Kennis. >> Mhm. You've got Manttow sitting down there. Yes, it's early stage, but it's next to a new discovery in the right geology and it's got indicative, you know, high-grade copper and gold rock chips. And then you have, you know, the Carrasco where you've got, you know, three exceptionally good, you know, big long, you know, grade intervals already. So, you know, I think it's still dirt cheap at the current if you look at the sum of the parts of those three projects relative to the market. Um, you know, it's one of the reasons that I've been, you know, I've put a lot of investment of my own money and time into Andina is because I see it as an, you know, as an asmmetric bet. you know, um the the downside is really protected by the quality of the assets and the fact the discoveries have already been made. Uh and they're it's each of them are in districts where there's a high likelihood of M&A in due course and the upside, you know, is is is is um you know, is open-ended and and looks exceptional. So, for me, that's bit of a no-brainer type of uh setup. Um, and you know, I think your entry going to your original question is that your entry price, your entry valuation, it's not necessarily price, but your entry valuation is always your best protection on the downside. So I think you know whether it's 100 million or 200 million or 10 million it's sort of not that relevant. You've got to go and say what is it what are the what are the sum of the parts worth? You know what are the sum of the parts worth? And I think if you break down C3 and you'll see that there's still the sum of the parts make them very compelling investments. Even at this point, >> I feel like we've only scratched the surface for for what's in your head or maybe not even. So, I really am looking forward to potentially another conversation. What am I forgetting to ask you though here at the end? What did you come here hoping to talk about that I failed to bring up? >> Uh, no, I think we covered most of the ground. Um, it's pretty wide ranging. I mean, it's around the core things that I'm, you can see that I'm pretty passionate about it. Um, I can talk about it all day. um if you'd like to um but you know it's a combination of investing investment in that sort of junior end and then you know how to manage that for success which is really you know I spend a huge amount of my time thinking about that I didn't mention the books books but you know I think we talked about it one other time you know I'm a very avid reader and an avid listener of podcasts and a lot of that's around understanding probabilities chance um you We we mentioned Annie Juke's book, you know, thinking in bets. So, I like to give that book to the CEOs and the expiration managers of any of the companies I'm involved in. I think the other one's called Quit. Um, and you know, it covers a lot of topics. You know, it's it's a professional poker player, but um or or an ex-professional poker player, but great books. and then you know Daniel Cannaman's works on you know just biases and uh you know then I listen to wide ranges of the world's best investors and the best explorers and you know then you know you you build a framework in your mind so I'd encourage anyone who's really wants to do well in this space to I live it and breathe it 24/7 sort of in my mind although my wife drives my wife crazy but um she's always asking me what do you thinking about and you know usually it's this topic. So um yeah I'd sort of encourage people to you know particularly like as you say I mean if you're a non geologist then all the stuff that I'm talking about relevant you got to you got to work every if you want to be successful in anything you got to work hard at it. Um, uh, >> well, does does Craig Perry have his catchphrase or essentially his checklist uh, size of the prize, cost of the test, chance of success? Does he have that from you? >> Uh, well, we've all grew up with it. Yeah. >> It's a It's actually comes from Rointto. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think he told me that story and and how uh how he looks at that too. And I'm seeing a lot of similarities here with you. So, um, it's funny to see it that way. But uh yeah, I know you have to go now though, Tony, and I've not been too respectful of your time, so I'll try to be that right now. Thank you so much for doing this. Really appreciate your time. >> All right. Good on you, Antonio. Thanks for having me on, and uh yeah, I hope it was uh people find it beneficial. Uh maybe we'll have a follow-up one day um at the dusty boot.