Gary Wagner: Gold Correction Was Overdue, ‘I’m Personally Surprised’ It Took This Long
Summary
Precious Metals Volatility: After a 9-week surge and 50% YTD gain, gold’s pullback is framed as consolidation within a broader bull market rather than a trend break.
Gold Outlook: A Demark Sequential 9 and dark cloud cover flagged exhaustion; Fibonacci supports around 3,870–3,748 suggest a Wave 2 correction before a Wave 3 move to new highs above 4,400.
Silver Outlook: Silver broke above $50, then retraced toward ~50% Fibonacci; expectation is a resumption to 55–60 as industrial demand and technicals reassert.
Macro Drivers: A dovish Fed rate-cut path is supportive for metals, while US-China trade de-risking can dampen safe-haven demand; fundamentals ultimately dominate price action.
Technical Framework: The analyst uses hybrid analysis combining Elliott Wave counts with candlestick and Fibonacci levels to time corrections and reentries.
Risk/Opportunity: Watch the 3,874 and 3,748 gold levels for support; a deeper 61.8% retrace is possible, but the structural bull case remains intact.
Positioning Note: No specific equities or tickers were pitched; focus was on thematic exposure to gold, silver, and the broader precious metals complex.
Transcript
[Music] Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. The precious metals market is giving us a masterclass in volatility. Now, after a powerful 9-week rally, gold has pulled back and taken a breath here from its peak of near $4,400 an ounce. Now, let's frame this move with proper context, though. Despite the recent drop, gold does remain up more than 50% year to date. A performance that far outpaces most other asset classes. So the dominant question isn't one of panic, but it seems of strategy. Is this a muchneeded consolidation within a powerful bull market, or is it a warning that the trend is exhausted? Now, this is all unfolding as the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting today with markets overwhelmingly pricing in another 25 basis point rate cut tomorrow. Now, while many were caught off guard by this reversal, our guest today was watching for something far more specific. Now, last week, our very own Gary Wagner of the goldfor.com released a video identifying a rare confluence of technical signals, a specific candlestick pattern combined with a powerful trend anticip anticipatory rather formula from legendary analyst Tom Demar uh to call this top with remarkable precision. Now, you saw the exhaustion point before the reversal happened. We're going to play that exact clip for you right now. Traders, we have a very interesting pattern. And the pattern that I'm talking about was created by Thomas Demar called a sequential nine. A total of nine green candles completes a sequential nine. So what does that mean? Well, according to Thomas Demar, the core function of the TDS9 is to help us identify trading opportunities by buying potential bottoms and selling potential tops. When a rising nine candle pattern emerges, you may have a downside reversal indicating that you might need to trim positions or make sure that you're either on the short side or neutral. We could truly be seeing gold at a top here. Coverage you get over at his gold forecast.com. The premium package, I think. Let's bring in Gary Wagner now joining us from Hawaii to break this all down. Nine consecutive candle tops. Hey my friend, good to see you. >> Good to see you also. Yeah, that was released on Friday to our premium members. Uh they get five videos a week. And for those that like to hear me and would like a more comprehensive idea of what I'm doing on a daily basis, they just go to the goldfor.com and sign up and try it out. But as far as the candlestick pattern that we recognize, it is the first occasion since 2013 that on a weekly chart you get nine consecutive candles and it is an exhaustion signal. On top of that, that red candle created a simple candlestick pattern called a dark cloud cover. And so the combination of both of those to me gave a high probability of possible selloff and corrections. The forboding of extreme positivity or bullish market sentiment moving to bearish. >> Okay, that's interesting. I mean it's the kind of granular granular analysis our audience appreciates. Okay, you identified the exhaustion. Now, let's dissect the the aftermath, I guess, K. I mean, in your Kicko column on October 23rd, you noted a uh a dogey candlestick pattern, right? Which which typically signals market indecision after a major move. Since then, however, the selling has continued. We've broken below that $4,000 level. How do you read the price action of the last few days? I mean, has the subsequent selling invalidated that dogee signal? Are you seeing this is just noisy? What are your thoughts? I think it actually validated it. We'll look at a daily chart and when we do, you'll see that there are three candlesticks beginning on Wednesday the 22nd, Thursday to the 23rd, and Friday. And the size of particularly Fridays and Wednesdays, the article was the 23rd. was looking at this candle spell a potential reversal or consolidation in which a big move could be coming and that's exactly what we saw because on Monday we saw a draw down of $124. I mean realize this rally from the beginning at uh 3350 up to call it $4400 an ounce was ridiculous. Currently, this correction has given back about 10 12%. I believe there's a high possibility it could go a little lower. I was hoping to find support at the 38.2%. That would be a real shallow correction, but realize that when we got a signal from a weekly chart, it would give you different numbers altogether. So my sense is that if it does continue lower 3872, that is just a 50% retracement. And you see that a lot in stocks. They move up $2, they come back and correct a dollar. The big one for a deep correction is a 61.8% correction, and that would take gold to 3748. But traders, here's the good news. For those that know my technical um studies that we use this rally in terms of an Elliot wave count, this is all wave one. And we are now I believe in a wave two scenario. And when that ends, and it will um I'm still really bullish on gold. when that ends, whether it it finds support here, which is less likely, or around 3870, 3748. In other words, wherever it ends, then we're going to start a third wave, primary third wave. These are primary waves. And a primary third wave by its definition is never the shortest of the impulse waves, which means it could have this kind of move again. One thing we do know is if we do get a third wave, as I believe we will, we will break 4,400 again and head to new areas that we have never seen before. >> 45 46. It it's just exciting. And my idea about this correction is it's been long overdue. I mean, look, we've never seen we have seen, but very very infrequently this kind of move from 33 to 43 is $1,000 and then it goes above that by a little bit. So $1,000 rally is not what we're used to. And that's what this was. When you consider I marked the beginning at 3348 and it trades to 39.95 that is a huge move and because of that that's why I think this correction could continue to go on but realize that ultimately this market is based on fundamental drivers. So >> yeah, >> rate cut that's bullish. Uh a successful uh trade talk with uh the president of China and Trump that will affect the market. That will not be bullish because that tends to bring gold down. But we have a government shutdown in the United States. That's at uh with 27 days and they stop issuing food stamps and uh food for those unfortunate enough to not be able to afford it. How is that going to affect gold? The drivers that have been driving gold I believe will continue to be present in the market and after this correction is over we will go to a new level we have not seen before. That's my take. >> Yeah. Interesting. Okay. So take a little bit of a dip of course. I mean it could take us to that $3,800 mark. I mean is that the new kind of floor? I mean, we were talking about 4,000 for a while, but you saw it kind of come back and bounce back each time that these sell-offs happen. Is there a new base that's kind of discovered there? Is it is it 3,800? Well, the reason I'm picking 3870, so yeah, just uh below 39 is that's what the charts are telling me because the first number you want to look for in a correction is the 23 uh the 23.6 4,100. Blast through that then. Well, will it find support at 397? It opens there today and trades below it. It's come up pretty interestingly enough from the low of the day. So, that's telling me that uh they're either squaring off positions if they're short. I don't know. But it broke through this one. So, the next logical point to look at is 3874. >> That's what we want to see. if gold trades lower, how it reacts at these various points because using uh Fibonacci um method has been very successful in pre-predicting price corrections. >> Yeah, well said. And it was nice to see you ahead of the game there. I mean, it was a it was a good call. Uh you and I were chatting and it was nice to just have you back today. I I don't know if you have a chart there, G G, but if we bring silver into the conversation just briefly because it was a a market leader on the way up with talk of a genuine physical squeeve driving its outperformance, but during this correction, I mean, it was underperforming gold significantly with the gold ratio widening back outwards towards about 35 to1. Um, in your view, I mean, is silver's more severe pullback kind of a warning sign for the for the health of the entire precious metals complex or with that ratio at this level, do you see silver just simply reverting to its volatile nature that we always talk about? >> Well, listen, silver tends to outperform on the upside when gold and silver are moving higher and overperform on the downside during a correction. That's what we didn't see. Um, silver's been really almost head-to-head in terms of percentage gains through the rally. Now, this rally here, as you can see, I'm putting from July with silver at uh 3630 and the top at 5451. And when we look at it, I don't know why, but I should uh let me add this if that doesn't matter. Yeah, we'll put it in. You can see it broke through the 23.6 like a butter knife. Look at the size of this move. You got the same kind of dozies or small body candles last week on the same date and then you had a significant drop as we did in gold yesterday. But look at today's candle. It's actually uh small body candle with a long lower wick which could become what's called an umbrella line or a hammer. The same with gold, but it's green. It's actually above its opening price. So, silver has silver wants to run. >> Yeah, >> it has it has been behind gold. Gold was making I don't even know how many all-time uh new price highs over the last year. I mean, it's it's a huge number, a double digit number, but silver wasn't. But finally, finally, silver broke above $50 and that would have occurred on Monday the 13th of October, >> ran as high as 54. And now it's correcting. And if you look, this low is kind of near the 50% retracement. That's a possibility of finding support there. Again, that would have a if if there's a positive move forward in the trade negotiations between China and the US, silver will respond in a very bullish manner because it's such a highly used industrial metal. And so that's one possibility as to why we're seeing a differential today between gold and silver. The exciting part is also I'm labeling this as a primary one. This is a primary second. Meaning when the correction is over, I expect silver to take out uh 5440 and absolutely go to 55 56 and beyond. Uh my son who's an excellent technical analyst for months has been calling for $60 silver and I'm going to take his call uh because he's really good at what I do. You know, he's watched me do everything for 8 to 10 years, soaked it in and now he does it himself and he loves silver. He made the call for $60. I'm proud of him and I absolutely believe that that's where we'll see silver go to. >> Well said, Gary. And say hi to Joey for us here. uh we know he's always helping you behind the scenes too and we appreciate him. Um okay, obviously your your analysis is always grounded in the charts, but there is those kind of powerful external forces that are reacting. I mean obviously this week we have two opposing narratives. We got tomorrow's FOMC is certain almost to cut rates by what 25 basis points. Uh a doubbish move that's typically kind of tailwind for gold. And then we got this primary catalyst from this very correction is this optimism over the US China trade deal. uh which is reducing the near-term safe haven demand. It kind of looks like and from a purely technical perspective, I mean, which should these two fundamental forces, a dovish Fed or geopolitical derisking is is exerting, you know, more influence on your charts right now? Um actually I'm not a p I I use charts as a primary tool but I call myself a hybrid analyst in that chart numbers do not move the market as much as we want them to. They show you possibilities but fundamentals control price action in the market. So, we want to look at the fundamentals first and get a sense as to how those fundamentals could affect gold or silver or soybeans if the if the deal goes through where China starts buying our soybeans. Those are the fundamental things that will make these markets move great. An announcement that uh Trump managed to get a order for a lot of soybeans is going to make soybeans go up tremendously. has not a a thing in the world to do with the chart. >> So, I always believe fundamentals are the core reason a market moves, but there's so much noise in figuring it out. Charts are easier to read. That's what got me into being a hybrid trader is that I would hear a lot a lot of the fundamental news and they could contradict each other. Then I became uncertain as to what's going to be the primary catalyst. Yeah. >> And I looked at the chart. Oh, it's clear. >> So, yeah, fundamentals move in the market. Uh, but analysis of charts combined with that, I believe, is probably the best way to analyze markets. >> Yeah. I got to ask you on that point. I mean, let's let's game plan a scenario because I mean, you and I have done this throughout the year and there is sometimes a tweet or whatever. All things are out the window. We kind of start fresh. If Chair Powell comes out tomorrow and delivers a surprisingly dovish message, perhaps signaling a more aggressive cutting cycle into 2026 that even the market expects, could a fundamental shock of that kind of magnitude override the current bearish technical momentum and and spark a, you know, an immediate reversal or does the chart damage that we've seen require a period of consolidation and kind of base building regardless of the news? >> It's a very very good point. I mean, first of all, the the market, the precious metals have priced in a 25 basis point rate cut tomorrow. They've also suggested the high probability of continued rate cuts through the rest of the year into next year. Very, very dovish. >> He could come out and be very dovish. I expect Powell to walk a tight rope. In other words, he'll announce a rate cut. He might suggest continuing rate cuts, and then he'll talk about the factors that he's concerned about in the economy. Um, which is the government shutdown, which is all of the things that are going to have a negative influence on our economy. And that actually I believe will make his take more dovish but he'll he'll put warning signs. I think he's he always tries to say that it's data dependent and the data suggests this but if it if it changes and he'll walk that tight rope. Um that's why he's been a good chairman is that he really knows how to walk a uh what's it a tight wire that you go across. not suggesting he does the uh the uh the Empire State Building or anything grand like what we saw years ago, but he always looks at both sides and he always mentions it, but we'll still get a sense if it's overall more dovish or overall dovish but neutral or very dovish with concerns. So that we'll have to see and that will be the next impetus for where the medals go. If he starts suggesting continued rate cuts through the rest of the year, I would be hard set because inflation is at 3%. Typically, the Fed would not cut rates when they have an inflation level of 3%. >> Yeah, >> but I expect a rate cut. So, it there's there's there's a lot of nuances in what it takes for the Fed to make their decision. I think we're going to get an atypical decision, meaning a rate cut with high inflation, but we'll have to see what happens. >> Yeah. Yeah. Okay. All right. Hey, before I let you go, I mean, let's we we talked about the president. Let's let's finish by looking forward. I mean, the last time you were on chart, this was on October 14th, Gary, and you laid out those targets of $4,300 gold and a range of 55 to 58 for silver. gold actually overshot your target just six days later before this reversal even happened. So I mean again you're right but this market do do you think that now that it's reset are those price targets still viable within your original time frame of you know year end or early Q1 I mean you talked about those maybe a corrective but if we see it go back here I mean what are your thoughts on 2026 >> if the correction is uh hopefully more shallow than it could be it's going to go to a primary third wave it will take out the former targets I have and that's where these new targets will come in because if this correction uh actually runs its course rather uh soon meaning the next even um end of the month uh October's almost over uh middle of November it could easily go and challenge these new levels based upon the fact that it's in a primary first wave and that of course would update my targets higher than they were originally. And the way I look at it is the targets we put out got hit. >> Mhm. >> Then we got a correction. So it's exactly how we're seeing it play out in that I didn't expect a $1,000 rise in gold or the kind of rise in silver. But when that is what unfolded, I realized that in the case of both markets, whatever you want to do, even even if the fundamentals want to move it higher, it's an overbought scenario and profit taking will come in. That's that was primary impetus that took gold and silver lower that broke everything. And so it was way way over about I think we did 30% in four months. Um and it really went to levels that uh I was looking for in both gold and silver. >> Yeah. >> And we also believe that there's going to be a correction when it hit those numbers and that actually came came due. Now the question is where will the correction >> conclude? >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, it's still a clear line in the sand for our viewers to watch and you've been incredibly accurate. Gary, of course, uh your clarity in such a complex environment is invaluable. Thanks for making the time today. >> Thank you for having me. >> All right, that was Gary Wagner of the editor of the goldfor.com. Now, the key takeaways that the recent sharp sell-off must be viewed in the context of a more than 50% year to date gain and Gary is watching those key technical supports around $3,800 level is a potential floor for this correction. While more volatility is possible as work suggested the long-term bullish structure remains intact for now. Now, the immediate catalyst will be tomorrow's forward guidance from the Federal Reserve, which will set the tone for the remainder of the year. Of course, we're watching that right here at Kicko News. That's all the time we have for today. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Be sure to hit the subscribe button. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next time. [Music]
Gary Wagner: Gold Correction Was Overdue, ‘I’m Personally Surprised’ It Took This Long
Summary
Transcript
[Music] Welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. The precious metals market is giving us a masterclass in volatility. Now, after a powerful 9-week rally, gold has pulled back and taken a breath here from its peak of near $4,400 an ounce. Now, let's frame this move with proper context, though. Despite the recent drop, gold does remain up more than 50% year to date. A performance that far outpaces most other asset classes. So the dominant question isn't one of panic, but it seems of strategy. Is this a muchneeded consolidation within a powerful bull market, or is it a warning that the trend is exhausted? Now, this is all unfolding as the Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting today with markets overwhelmingly pricing in another 25 basis point rate cut tomorrow. Now, while many were caught off guard by this reversal, our guest today was watching for something far more specific. Now, last week, our very own Gary Wagner of the goldfor.com released a video identifying a rare confluence of technical signals, a specific candlestick pattern combined with a powerful trend anticip anticipatory rather formula from legendary analyst Tom Demar uh to call this top with remarkable precision. Now, you saw the exhaustion point before the reversal happened. We're going to play that exact clip for you right now. Traders, we have a very interesting pattern. And the pattern that I'm talking about was created by Thomas Demar called a sequential nine. A total of nine green candles completes a sequential nine. So what does that mean? Well, according to Thomas Demar, the core function of the TDS9 is to help us identify trading opportunities by buying potential bottoms and selling potential tops. When a rising nine candle pattern emerges, you may have a downside reversal indicating that you might need to trim positions or make sure that you're either on the short side or neutral. We could truly be seeing gold at a top here. Coverage you get over at his gold forecast.com. The premium package, I think. Let's bring in Gary Wagner now joining us from Hawaii to break this all down. Nine consecutive candle tops. Hey my friend, good to see you. >> Good to see you also. Yeah, that was released on Friday to our premium members. Uh they get five videos a week. And for those that like to hear me and would like a more comprehensive idea of what I'm doing on a daily basis, they just go to the goldfor.com and sign up and try it out. But as far as the candlestick pattern that we recognize, it is the first occasion since 2013 that on a weekly chart you get nine consecutive candles and it is an exhaustion signal. On top of that, that red candle created a simple candlestick pattern called a dark cloud cover. And so the combination of both of those to me gave a high probability of possible selloff and corrections. The forboding of extreme positivity or bullish market sentiment moving to bearish. >> Okay, that's interesting. I mean it's the kind of granular granular analysis our audience appreciates. Okay, you identified the exhaustion. Now, let's dissect the the aftermath, I guess, K. I mean, in your Kicko column on October 23rd, you noted a uh a dogey candlestick pattern, right? Which which typically signals market indecision after a major move. Since then, however, the selling has continued. We've broken below that $4,000 level. How do you read the price action of the last few days? I mean, has the subsequent selling invalidated that dogee signal? Are you seeing this is just noisy? What are your thoughts? I think it actually validated it. We'll look at a daily chart and when we do, you'll see that there are three candlesticks beginning on Wednesday the 22nd, Thursday to the 23rd, and Friday. And the size of particularly Fridays and Wednesdays, the article was the 23rd. was looking at this candle spell a potential reversal or consolidation in which a big move could be coming and that's exactly what we saw because on Monday we saw a draw down of $124. I mean realize this rally from the beginning at uh 3350 up to call it $4400 an ounce was ridiculous. Currently, this correction has given back about 10 12%. I believe there's a high possibility it could go a little lower. I was hoping to find support at the 38.2%. That would be a real shallow correction, but realize that when we got a signal from a weekly chart, it would give you different numbers altogether. So my sense is that if it does continue lower 3872, that is just a 50% retracement. And you see that a lot in stocks. They move up $2, they come back and correct a dollar. The big one for a deep correction is a 61.8% correction, and that would take gold to 3748. But traders, here's the good news. For those that know my technical um studies that we use this rally in terms of an Elliot wave count, this is all wave one. And we are now I believe in a wave two scenario. And when that ends, and it will um I'm still really bullish on gold. when that ends, whether it it finds support here, which is less likely, or around 3870, 3748. In other words, wherever it ends, then we're going to start a third wave, primary third wave. These are primary waves. And a primary third wave by its definition is never the shortest of the impulse waves, which means it could have this kind of move again. One thing we do know is if we do get a third wave, as I believe we will, we will break 4,400 again and head to new areas that we have never seen before. >> 45 46. It it's just exciting. And my idea about this correction is it's been long overdue. I mean, look, we've never seen we have seen, but very very infrequently this kind of move from 33 to 43 is $1,000 and then it goes above that by a little bit. So $1,000 rally is not what we're used to. And that's what this was. When you consider I marked the beginning at 3348 and it trades to 39.95 that is a huge move and because of that that's why I think this correction could continue to go on but realize that ultimately this market is based on fundamental drivers. So >> yeah, >> rate cut that's bullish. Uh a successful uh trade talk with uh the president of China and Trump that will affect the market. That will not be bullish because that tends to bring gold down. But we have a government shutdown in the United States. That's at uh with 27 days and they stop issuing food stamps and uh food for those unfortunate enough to not be able to afford it. How is that going to affect gold? The drivers that have been driving gold I believe will continue to be present in the market and after this correction is over we will go to a new level we have not seen before. That's my take. >> Yeah. Interesting. Okay. So take a little bit of a dip of course. I mean it could take us to that $3,800 mark. I mean is that the new kind of floor? I mean, we were talking about 4,000 for a while, but you saw it kind of come back and bounce back each time that these sell-offs happen. Is there a new base that's kind of discovered there? Is it is it 3,800? Well, the reason I'm picking 3870, so yeah, just uh below 39 is that's what the charts are telling me because the first number you want to look for in a correction is the 23 uh the 23.6 4,100. Blast through that then. Well, will it find support at 397? It opens there today and trades below it. It's come up pretty interestingly enough from the low of the day. So, that's telling me that uh they're either squaring off positions if they're short. I don't know. But it broke through this one. So, the next logical point to look at is 3874. >> That's what we want to see. if gold trades lower, how it reacts at these various points because using uh Fibonacci um method has been very successful in pre-predicting price corrections. >> Yeah, well said. And it was nice to see you ahead of the game there. I mean, it was a it was a good call. Uh you and I were chatting and it was nice to just have you back today. I I don't know if you have a chart there, G G, but if we bring silver into the conversation just briefly because it was a a market leader on the way up with talk of a genuine physical squeeve driving its outperformance, but during this correction, I mean, it was underperforming gold significantly with the gold ratio widening back outwards towards about 35 to1. Um, in your view, I mean, is silver's more severe pullback kind of a warning sign for the for the health of the entire precious metals complex or with that ratio at this level, do you see silver just simply reverting to its volatile nature that we always talk about? >> Well, listen, silver tends to outperform on the upside when gold and silver are moving higher and overperform on the downside during a correction. That's what we didn't see. Um, silver's been really almost head-to-head in terms of percentage gains through the rally. Now, this rally here, as you can see, I'm putting from July with silver at uh 3630 and the top at 5451. And when we look at it, I don't know why, but I should uh let me add this if that doesn't matter. Yeah, we'll put it in. You can see it broke through the 23.6 like a butter knife. Look at the size of this move. You got the same kind of dozies or small body candles last week on the same date and then you had a significant drop as we did in gold yesterday. But look at today's candle. It's actually uh small body candle with a long lower wick which could become what's called an umbrella line or a hammer. The same with gold, but it's green. It's actually above its opening price. So, silver has silver wants to run. >> Yeah, >> it has it has been behind gold. Gold was making I don't even know how many all-time uh new price highs over the last year. I mean, it's it's a huge number, a double digit number, but silver wasn't. But finally, finally, silver broke above $50 and that would have occurred on Monday the 13th of October, >> ran as high as 54. And now it's correcting. And if you look, this low is kind of near the 50% retracement. That's a possibility of finding support there. Again, that would have a if if there's a positive move forward in the trade negotiations between China and the US, silver will respond in a very bullish manner because it's such a highly used industrial metal. And so that's one possibility as to why we're seeing a differential today between gold and silver. The exciting part is also I'm labeling this as a primary one. This is a primary second. Meaning when the correction is over, I expect silver to take out uh 5440 and absolutely go to 55 56 and beyond. Uh my son who's an excellent technical analyst for months has been calling for $60 silver and I'm going to take his call uh because he's really good at what I do. You know, he's watched me do everything for 8 to 10 years, soaked it in and now he does it himself and he loves silver. He made the call for $60. I'm proud of him and I absolutely believe that that's where we'll see silver go to. >> Well said, Gary. And say hi to Joey for us here. uh we know he's always helping you behind the scenes too and we appreciate him. Um okay, obviously your your analysis is always grounded in the charts, but there is those kind of powerful external forces that are reacting. I mean obviously this week we have two opposing narratives. We got tomorrow's FOMC is certain almost to cut rates by what 25 basis points. Uh a doubbish move that's typically kind of tailwind for gold. And then we got this primary catalyst from this very correction is this optimism over the US China trade deal. uh which is reducing the near-term safe haven demand. It kind of looks like and from a purely technical perspective, I mean, which should these two fundamental forces, a dovish Fed or geopolitical derisking is is exerting, you know, more influence on your charts right now? Um actually I'm not a p I I use charts as a primary tool but I call myself a hybrid analyst in that chart numbers do not move the market as much as we want them to. They show you possibilities but fundamentals control price action in the market. So, we want to look at the fundamentals first and get a sense as to how those fundamentals could affect gold or silver or soybeans if the if the deal goes through where China starts buying our soybeans. Those are the fundamental things that will make these markets move great. An announcement that uh Trump managed to get a order for a lot of soybeans is going to make soybeans go up tremendously. has not a a thing in the world to do with the chart. >> So, I always believe fundamentals are the core reason a market moves, but there's so much noise in figuring it out. Charts are easier to read. That's what got me into being a hybrid trader is that I would hear a lot a lot of the fundamental news and they could contradict each other. Then I became uncertain as to what's going to be the primary catalyst. Yeah. >> And I looked at the chart. Oh, it's clear. >> So, yeah, fundamentals move in the market. Uh, but analysis of charts combined with that, I believe, is probably the best way to analyze markets. >> Yeah. I got to ask you on that point. I mean, let's let's game plan a scenario because I mean, you and I have done this throughout the year and there is sometimes a tweet or whatever. All things are out the window. We kind of start fresh. If Chair Powell comes out tomorrow and delivers a surprisingly dovish message, perhaps signaling a more aggressive cutting cycle into 2026 that even the market expects, could a fundamental shock of that kind of magnitude override the current bearish technical momentum and and spark a, you know, an immediate reversal or does the chart damage that we've seen require a period of consolidation and kind of base building regardless of the news? >> It's a very very good point. I mean, first of all, the the market, the precious metals have priced in a 25 basis point rate cut tomorrow. They've also suggested the high probability of continued rate cuts through the rest of the year into next year. Very, very dovish. >> He could come out and be very dovish. I expect Powell to walk a tight rope. In other words, he'll announce a rate cut. He might suggest continuing rate cuts, and then he'll talk about the factors that he's concerned about in the economy. Um, which is the government shutdown, which is all of the things that are going to have a negative influence on our economy. And that actually I believe will make his take more dovish but he'll he'll put warning signs. I think he's he always tries to say that it's data dependent and the data suggests this but if it if it changes and he'll walk that tight rope. Um that's why he's been a good chairman is that he really knows how to walk a uh what's it a tight wire that you go across. not suggesting he does the uh the uh the Empire State Building or anything grand like what we saw years ago, but he always looks at both sides and he always mentions it, but we'll still get a sense if it's overall more dovish or overall dovish but neutral or very dovish with concerns. So that we'll have to see and that will be the next impetus for where the medals go. If he starts suggesting continued rate cuts through the rest of the year, I would be hard set because inflation is at 3%. Typically, the Fed would not cut rates when they have an inflation level of 3%. >> Yeah, >> but I expect a rate cut. So, it there's there's there's a lot of nuances in what it takes for the Fed to make their decision. I think we're going to get an atypical decision, meaning a rate cut with high inflation, but we'll have to see what happens. >> Yeah. Yeah. Okay. All right. Hey, before I let you go, I mean, let's we we talked about the president. Let's let's finish by looking forward. I mean, the last time you were on chart, this was on October 14th, Gary, and you laid out those targets of $4,300 gold and a range of 55 to 58 for silver. gold actually overshot your target just six days later before this reversal even happened. So I mean again you're right but this market do do you think that now that it's reset are those price targets still viable within your original time frame of you know year end or early Q1 I mean you talked about those maybe a corrective but if we see it go back here I mean what are your thoughts on 2026 >> if the correction is uh hopefully more shallow than it could be it's going to go to a primary third wave it will take out the former targets I have and that's where these new targets will come in because if this correction uh actually runs its course rather uh soon meaning the next even um end of the month uh October's almost over uh middle of November it could easily go and challenge these new levels based upon the fact that it's in a primary first wave and that of course would update my targets higher than they were originally. And the way I look at it is the targets we put out got hit. >> Mhm. >> Then we got a correction. So it's exactly how we're seeing it play out in that I didn't expect a $1,000 rise in gold or the kind of rise in silver. But when that is what unfolded, I realized that in the case of both markets, whatever you want to do, even even if the fundamentals want to move it higher, it's an overbought scenario and profit taking will come in. That's that was primary impetus that took gold and silver lower that broke everything. And so it was way way over about I think we did 30% in four months. Um and it really went to levels that uh I was looking for in both gold and silver. >> Yeah. >> And we also believe that there's going to be a correction when it hit those numbers and that actually came came due. Now the question is where will the correction >> conclude? >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, it's still a clear line in the sand for our viewers to watch and you've been incredibly accurate. Gary, of course, uh your clarity in such a complex environment is invaluable. Thanks for making the time today. >> Thank you for having me. >> All right, that was Gary Wagner of the editor of the goldfor.com. Now, the key takeaways that the recent sharp sell-off must be viewed in the context of a more than 50% year to date gain and Gary is watching those key technical supports around $3,800 level is a potential floor for this correction. While more volatility is possible as work suggested the long-term bullish structure remains intact for now. Now, the immediate catalyst will be tomorrow's forward guidance from the Federal Reserve, which will set the tone for the remainder of the year. Of course, we're watching that right here at Kicko News. That's all the time we have for today. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Be sure to hit the subscribe button. Thanks for watching. We'll see you next time. [Music]