Gold & Silver Breakout: Are We Already on a New Standard? | Mario Innecco
Summary
Gold and Silver Breakout: Recent weeks have seen significant breakouts in gold and silver prices, with gold futures trading around $3,540 and silver over $4,140, signaling potential shifts in market dynamics.
Gold Standard Discussion: The podcast explores the idea of a new gold standard, driven by central banks globally increasing their gold reserves, moving away from reliance on the US dollar.
BRICS and Global Economic Shifts: The BRICS nations and other countries are accumulating gold reserves, indicating a possible move away from the dollar as a reserve currency, with geopolitical tensions influencing these shifts.
Stable Coins and Monetary Systems: Discussion on stable coins highlights their potential role in financial systems, with skepticism about their stability and concerns over their backing by fiat currencies.
Technical Analysis of Gold: Gold's recent price consolidation was necessary after a strong rally, with technical indicators suggesting continued upward momentum, influenced by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Silver's Critical Status: Silver has been added to the USGS's list of critical minerals, emphasizing its importance, particularly for military applications, and highlighting opportunities for US miners.
Mining Sector Opportunities: The mining sector, particularly junior miners, presents significant investment opportunities, with silver miners potentially offering more upside than gold miners.
Geopolitical and Economic Factors: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, including rising bond yields and fiscal challenges, are supporting bullish trends in gold and silver markets.
Transcript
That's what the USGS is saying and it has added silver to the list of critical minerals at least in a draft version. Gold futures are exploding. We're trading around 34 3540 and silver is over $4140 in the futures market. Spot spot looks just as good of course slightly lower and we've invited a fantastic guest to discuss the latest moves. Gold was trading without an impulse. silver just as much and just in recent weeks. But just last week, at the end of last week, things started happening. Gold broke out, silver broke out, and we'll discover or discuss why that happened. But before I switch over to my guest, oh, who is Mario, by the way, I forgot to mention, really excited to have him on. He runs a phenomenal YouTube channel with some great commentary at Manco 64 on YouTube. Go check that out afterwards. And uh quick reminder, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and we much much appreciate it. Now, Mario, it's great to have you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Nice to see you, too, Kai. >> Yeah, really looking forward to the next 30 minutes with you here, Mario. Lots has happened just in over the weekend, it feels like. Um, but maybe we'll start at the top. Like I mentioned, we might already be in a new gold standard environment. And I stole that, I have to admit, from one of your videos that you published, I think, over the weekend. And maybe elaborate on that topic a little bit because it's a hot topic. Yeah, I I mean we haven't really technically been been on a gold standard uh since like around World War I and even Bretton Woods was a gold exchange system. But the reason I mentioned that is that recently um we we've seen uh that uh gold reserves by foreign central banks have overtaken the dollar for the first time since uh I think 1996 and the trend looks set to continue. And the other thing as well is that uh all the major bricks countries and a lot of other countries uh Poland for example as well they're they're loading up on uh on gold uh as reserves for their central banks. I think the world is realizing they can't uh not just depend on the dollar as a major reserve uh asset but also they can't really u take the risk of having too many dollars uh as reserves as it's been used more and more as a weapon. So the only thing left a after that is uh gold. Uh gold is the only neutral uh monetary reserve asset that's been around for thousands of years. And the reason the dollar was ever uh a major or still is kind of a major reserve currency is because it used to be as good as gold. So that's why I I mentioned that. And uh I think we're going to go back to u a standard a gold standard anyway. Uh because uh what we have now is um dying. I don't buy into uh stable coins because uh all they're going to back that with is more and more uh fiat currency debt, which I think uh if fiat currencies go, that's going to go too. >> Let's talk stable coins here in a minute. Let's stay on on gold for a second. Um what what triggered the price rally? Like I mentioned in the intro, it felt like gold over the summer was just moving sideways or actually since May or so it's been moving sideways in a very tight range, but now it broke out at the end of the week. Was there a specific trigger or like what led to the the cattle finally boiling here? >> Well, on a technical basis, um I I think uh that consolidation since April was necessary because uh gold was overbought. it rallied like from 2600 to three and a half thousand in like four months uh in the beginning of the year. So it's normal that it consolidates and uh we we also saw like a few weeks ago it try to break out of this u symmetrical triangle uh which is uh on an upward trend it's usually a consolidation of the previous trend. uh but in technical analysis only like three out of four times it keeps going the same direction of the the trend which was up uh there is a chance that it might fail so it didn't fail uh so u what do I think triggered it in terms of fundamentals or outside events outside technical analysis I think it could have been the uh uh speech by um chairman uh Jay Pow at the Yeah, Jackson Hole Symposium a week or two ago where he said that the Fed's ready to cut in September. And then you mentioned before we came on about uh board the Fed board member Waller, he he said that depending on where non-farm payroll uh comes out at this Friday, uh we could see a jumbo cut. So he's implying that uh if we see a very weak non-farm payroll like we did last last month and also weak uh revisions uh they they could cut more than 25 basis points because right now uh Wall Street uh they're discounting an 87% chance of a 25 uh basis point cut on the 17th of September. But what what is a jumbo cut? Could it be 1% or I mean they did a kind of a jumbo cut last September by 50 basis points which surprised everyone. So I I think that's why uh gold is start started to take off geopolitically as well. I don't know if you wanted to go go into that right now. It looks like uh President Trump has been able to uh uh unify bricks even more even though he's been very critical of bricks. He's got two old arch rivals or enemies, China and India to uh make peace again and uh start talking. So um that's only going to solidify uh the bricks movement and the move away from the dollar. and uh you move away from the dollar, there's only one place to go. Um uh gold. >> Since we are on the topic of bricks and maybe Shanghai Corporation organization, that name drives me nuts, by the way, saying it. Um because it's very complicated if you want to say it fast. So the SEO, um there's a big meeting happening in Tanzhin in China right now. It's also part of a celebrating 80 years of defeating Japan in World War II, of course. Um what do you expect from that meeting to happen? the Financial Times and other western media is covering it extensively um talking about potential setup of a development bank amongst the SEO member states. Um what are some of the ramifications economically that you see coming out of that summit? >> Yeah, I I think the I mean I haven't looked at the details. I know they're meeting there. I I think the big take from this SEO is the fact that um uh Modi from uh India has gone there for the first time in seven years because India has been a member of this SEO but u the u relationship uh with China hasn't been very good. So, I think just the fact that he's gone there is a good thing. And I'm not sure whether the SEO is gonna really develop into like a starting some kind of uh bank like a national development bank. I think they already have that for the bricks the the the bricks national development bank. So yeah, I think the SEO is more like a I would say um the NATO for uh for bricks maybe. So but yeah, we have to wait and see uh if there there are uh more uh statements uh coming out of this conference. I think uh Xi Jinping uh announced that he's his ambition is to reshape uh the world order. So, I think they're very u very uh how can I say ambitious uh but it's not surprising. Uh I don't know if you remember I think it was beginning of this year in January or it could have been last year. Time goes by so quickly, but I don't know if you remember Putin and uh Xiinping met somewhere in Moscow and they're coming out of the Kremlin and and they said, "Well, this is going to be the biggest thing in a hundred years." And we didn't know what it was. So, um maybe >> do we know now? >> Not yet, but maybe we'll hear something out of the uh out of this uh summit. >> No, it's interesting. A lot of interesting members are participating in that summit. Kim Jong-un, Pakistan, Iran sending their leaders. Um like from a western perspective, it sounds very scary when these countries meet of course. What are your expectations coming out of it? Not just what you've heard, but what you expect to happen. Yeah, I I think in the west unfortunately uh well or you you might say fortunately we considered these groups like bricks and SEO like rivals to let's say U G7 and U NATO. So, I I was reading a few days ago, I think it was in the Telegraph here in the UK or the FT saying that uh you've only got authoritarians attending this summit, but uh you know uh our leaders in the in the West aren't that much better, you know, here in the UK. Uh I can be arrested for some saying saying something they don't like uh here on YouTube. So, uh yeah, that that's how the West sees it. But I I I think it's normal. The these other nations uh they've been under uh control of the west for hundreds of years and now they they've managed to get themselves out of poverty and they've developed quite fast. Uh you know they've got advanced economies and they want like an equal say. Well, at least they wanted it, let's say, in the IMF, in the UN, in the World Bank, but that wasn't given to them because the West is not willing to share power. So, that's what it leads to just like Trump uh being combative uh towards India has uh triggered Modi to to make this rapromo with uh with the Chinese. though uh we've only got ourselves to blame in the west for a lot that's happening instead of we could maybe be cooperating with these people and uh making the world a little more stable and peaceful but um unfortunately that's not the the uh modus operandi of the globalists uh in Brussels and Washington DC and London >> especially London I've been hearing a lot that the center of all evil apparent apparently is London without like um but um maybe to connect or to sort of join the first topic that we discussed was the gold standard and now the SEO bricks um I think the US or we are in general the west is pushing you know a new monetary system as you said and maybe goldbacked potentially as well do you expect that now to happen with the bricks and the SEO do you do you expect something to come out of that is it going to be the renimi that's going to be goldbacked or is it going to be new currency but What what do you see? What are you hearing? >> Yeah, I I don't see anything like that coming out um soon. But what what I think they're working on is having a a payment system for all the major bricks and global south currencies so they can uh pay each other without having to go through Swift. uh but uh what what's going to happen I think is they're going to use gold as a settlement u uh asset at the end of a fiscal year or whenever let's say a country has a surplus with another country and they've got they're holding on to loads of U1 for example they might say to the Chinese give me some of the gold I'll give you the U1 that I think that's what's going to happen I don't see them going for uh a single currency that's just u yeah that get puts countries in the straight jacket you know look at the the euro which is a currency a single currency for a continent that's fairly culturally similar uh even that is been really hard can you imagine having a single currency for all those brick nations in different continents I I can't but I can imagine them using the same reserve asset i.e. gold because everyone recognizes gold as as money especially in those countries. It's only in the west that we've been brainwashed into thinking that uh gold is just a barbarous relic or a pat rock. Yeah, those terms drive me nuts quite honestly. Um, no, but like maybe just on the bricks itself, it seems like they're quite divided still despite having a probably the same goal, but they're quite divided. Like you brought up uh Modi traveling to China uh for the first time in like seven years. India and China are not on the same page when it comes to many things like could that be like how should we consider that? >> Yeah, they they are. And I mean it's just like in the west there are countries that are kind of uh not on the same page. France, for example, has always been uh very independent and and uh willing to like buck the trend. Don't don't forget uh they they were against the uh Iraq invasion in 2003. So uh there's always going to be I think divisions uh within bricks but I think uh the Americans are making it so uh difficult uh that u the division is being like um yeah swallowed kind of swallowed and like uh it's uh making them cooperate. Just because you're part of a group uh doesn't mean to say that you're always going to agree on things. So that's how I see it. Um coming back to gold price itself like there you know we jumped down the rabbit hole of the bricks and the Shanghai corporation organization because the summit is happening right now. Um but looking at the gold price like is it just a factor of per not just technicals but also maybe a weaker dollar or are there any other factors um pulling on the price of gold right now? Are you looking at anything else? >> Yeah, I think so. the uh bond market uh throughout the the West and uh yeah, especially the longer end of the bond market uh yields have been creeping up quite yeah quite a bit. I mean uh in Japan uh we've seen the 30-year make all-time highs and the only reason it's all uh all-time highs I guess is because it only started being issued uh back in the late 90s. So yeah, it might might still I think still has a lot of room to go because if it had been trading prior to that, it probably would have been at 8 9%. But even the the German 30-year is uh trading at multi-year highs. we've got here in the UK the 30-year uh as we speak here is at a 20 27 uh year high and in the US uh even though it might be benefiting a little bit from the troubles like in France and the UK uh the 30-year in the US as well is approaching 5% and and what that's saying is that uh investors are not confident about all the debt that has to be uh taken on to keep this system going and that they expect the currencies to continue to be uh debased and I think that helps uh gold. In the past, people have said that higher yields are uh bearish for gold, but we've seen since 2022 that that is not the case. And it wasn't the case in the 70s either. And I think it's because we are in a bare market in bonds and yields are going to keep going up. While from 1980 to 2020, we were in a bull market. So uh gold seemed to uh trade uh let's say uh inversely. If yields went up, gold went down. But now it it's going the same direction uh because it's a bad kind of uh rise in yields. >> This seems like a good time to come back to stable coins cuz uh the US is working on introducing stable coins to issue more T bills or bonds as well. Um let let's be bit more granular. What what is your take on stable coins? A lot of people have been quite negative on stable coins as it could be an extra rush to liquidity. Um, I I've been jokingly saying, well, I'm expecting the next meme stock rally here, or um, you know, Reddit community crowdfunding and crowd pushing perhaps the the stable coins in the wrong direction and Roaring Kitty coming back just to manipulate the US uh, the financial system here, but all jokes aside here, Mario, like what could be the impact of stable coins and is that a new source of funding for for governments, the US in particular? Well, you know, I dealt in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin years ago, and um a lot of times if you're trading those things, u you want to keep, let's say, you make a profit, uh you want to keep put it back in fiat and putting it in stable coins was convenient because it was supposedly back uh like Tether, one to one to the dollar. But uh what we've seen is that Tether has never been audited independently. And we we found out a few years ago that they hold a lot of uh treasuries, some commercial paper. We don't even know what they hold really. They don't really hold cash, Federal Reserve notes one to one. So that in itself is like it's not very u straightforward. But uh I I think uh the US government and the Trump administration are using this demand for a stable coin and that used to be the case because the crypto exchanges that whole ecosystem was separate from the uh main banking system. So they had to find something stable because they they could they didn't want to put things back in the dollar. But now uh I think uh the powers that be have realized we can use this as an instrument to keep people trapped in our system uh because they're going to need these stable coins uh and um yeah and they see that it could be like a a huge source of demand for US treasuries and uh it all has to do with what's going on with the dollar as a major reserve asset. People are abandoning it and it's a last uh ditch effort I think by the Americans to try to keep uh people demanding uh treasuries. I think it's going to fail because why can't other countries have their own stable coin? It's really it's really simple. You could have a U1 stable coin or a Euro stable coin. uh you don't have to have a dollar stable coin. >> I think China is working on introducing something like that as well. They just had a bill uh in their Congress, National Congress that was proposing something like that. Uh don't quote me on it exactly, but I've been reading something along those lines. So >> that's how I see the stable coins. I wouldn't really I mean it it's not really that stable because it's tied to the dollar and the dollar has lost 99% of its value uh in the last uh well since 1971 anyway >> last what is it 53 years 54 years doing the math in my head so yeah no absolutely um Mario we have to talk silver um silver of course finally broken out over $40 I think we can say the rally has been confirmed and Maybe the breakout has been confirmed now after two continuous days of trading above 40. Um what do you make of silver's breakout? What do you make of the price action? And uh is it sustainable? >> I think so. And uh I was looking this morning at the uh the high in 2011 and the uh low in 2019, the Fibonacci retracement. And we've gone through the uh 61.8% retracement. Uh there's a 76.2 2 retracement which is just below 40 42 but that's not a very important level. So uh there's not much resistance here until 50 which is a really uh key level. So I think it looks very good technically uh silver and uh I think uh we're going to start seeing some big moves higher but also some sharp corrections down. So you need to be um like ready for those. Uh you might see two three four $5 moves higher but you might see uh a corrections of the dollar downward too. But uh yeah I think silver is uh yeah ready to test that 50 level and it will be the third time basically in 45 years. So, and I think we're going to break through there and it's going to be very uh explosive once we do. >> The the breakout is fairly young in age, of course. I'm maybe asking a question that you might not be able to answer yet, Mario, but any any um feedback from the commercials? Are you seeing anything like in terms of their positioning? Has that changed? I know the coot report um is not out yet for for last as of last Friday, I believe. So, I'm curious like are you hearing anything? Are you seeing any trends? Well, I I I've read and listened to a few interviews like uh people like Egon von Gryard saying that he can't source any physical silver for his clients uh in Switzerland. Uh and uh yeah, I haven't looked at the commitment of traders yet, you know, how the open interest did. So, it's not something I follow very closely, but uh yeah, I think um yeah, there's a a problem there, you know, and uh we we might see open interest not really go up that much because uh the move higher can is might might have been a lot of short covering. >> Uh so that that like uh keeps the open interest neutral. Yeah, I'm visiting our sponsor Money Medals next or this Thursday and they're North America's largest private depository. Um, so I'll be uh I'll be getting some firsthand information on what it looks like on on the back end as well and what the commercials are doing here. Um, in terms of silver, I'm just trying to figure out like how how much leg or like whether this market has legs, right? And it obviously has. I think I'm I'm more trying to poke holes into the into the narrative here just to see what the downside might be um when it comes to that because I think it's really easy to make bull case but bare cases are really difficult for me to come up these days like do you see any bare cases for gold and silver right now Mario? No, I don't. Um I don't because I I don't see um aside from the fiscal and uh financial situation, there's also the geopolitical situation uh which isn't great, you know, um especially as it relates to Ukraine and Russia and the EU. EU seems to be determined not to really push for peace. So that's another one. And I Yeah. And as for the fiscal situation, they can't really uh do anything but try to uh keep uh pushing for more liquidity uh lower rates because you know the debt is uh gargantuan now. And uh in this system if we allow the debt to uh give any hint that it's going to like uh liquidate it's really bad for the system. So the the you know the the bigger the that gets the more serious it gets. So yeah I I don't don't expect them to uh get religion and by that I mean become like sound sound money advocates advocates of peace small government. I I don't see that happening. So yeah, I'll hold on to my gold and silver um until Yeah, until uh I don't know when, but uh >> I was going to say I don't have a counter argument. I can't even challenge you because I fully agree with what you're saying. There's just not a bear case inside really. Of course, world peace is the only one I could imagine. Then even that only probably dips gold maybe a hundred bucks at best and maybe silver a couple dollars. That's it. So we we we'll see. Um Mario is like silver is being deemed critical u by the USGS at least it has been added to the draft list uh it is proposing in terms of critical minerals how significant is that and what what are some of the ramifications maybe even thinking about the miners in the US when it comes to silver >> yeah I mean that is important I'm I'm surprised that it wasn't on that list before because it's really important for the military silver uh so yeah for the miners I guess uh that's really important too and I President Trump signed an executive order uh just around the time he took power took power for the second time about uh natural resources. So I think uh the Americans are going to continue to push for uh this uh yeah development and exploration uh of natural resources and uh I I think the world is becoming less and less of course globalized and the supply chains are becoming more and more precarious. So yeah, uh the US, Canada, maybe not Europe because we're still in this uh net zero philosophy, but a lot of places are going to start like u defending their natural resources. And like the dollar for example is not going to be accepted as much as it was prior to now. you know, the US didn't care about natural resources because it could just use the dollar to buy uh properties and natural resources anywhere around the world. But now that's becoming uh a little less uh less so because people are moving away from from the dollar and they're trying to protect their resources because they they want something of value in return for their resources. Uh maybe if the US starts paying in gold they they might open up a little more. >> We debated that last time whether there's even any gold in Fort Knox and whether we believe the audits. That was a hot topic when we spoke about 5 months ago Mario if you remember. Um but maybe last couple minutes Mario I just want to use to talk about the mining space in general. Um just looking at some opportunities. What are your thoughts on the mining sector? And for me primarily that's the gold and silver miners. um go new second best uh performing stock in the S&P 500 so far this year up 100% even. Uh what do you make of the miners performance and what should we be looking forward to? >> Yeah, I mean the miners uh they lagged quite a bit until recently till this year I think and um they're they're doing really well and they still have a lot of potential. Excuse me. uh especially the junior minors, but the junior minors are different uh because they're riskier. So, I think people should have a mix of uh both, you know, the the new months and of the world and the other ones, the juniors and but also silver, the silver miners, I think they have even more potential uh than the gold miners. And uh in terms of uh the balance between physical gold and silver and the miners, I I'm always uh personally I'm more conservative. I do have miners but uh the bulk of what I have is in in gold and silver but uh yeah I think uh the other thing about the miners uh don't leverage because it's it's going to be leveraged enough uh just by uh yeah because it's dangerous leveraging even in the bull market. >> Absolutely. I fully agree Mario. This is all we have time for. I need to invite you back very soon uh to to catch up on what might be coming out of the SEO summit here in Tanjing and the celebrations for the 80y year anniversary of beating Japan in World War II here. Um really interesting context, Mario. Really appreciate your insights. Where can we send our audience to follow more of your work? >> Yes, I'm on YouTube 64. Uh, I post a video or an interview every day and I'm also quite active on X or Twitter. Manco uh1964 is the handle there. >> Fantastic. Mario, thank you so much for coming on. It's great pleasure to catch up with you again and we'll have to do this again soon. Thank you so much. And everybody else, thanks so much for tuning in to Soore Financially. Hope you enjoyed this conversation with Mario and Neko. If you did, go check out his YouTube channel. And of course, don't forget to leave a like and a comment down below. And if you haven't done so, hit that subscribe button as well. It much or it helps us out tremendously. YouTube algorithm is a finicky beast these days, so we appreciate any support there. And it's free, of course, so we're not asking for any money from you either. Um, yeah. Thanks so much for tuning in. We'll be back with lots more. Take care out there. [Music]
Gold & Silver Breakout: Are We Already on a New Standard? | Mario Innecco
Summary
Transcript
That's what the USGS is saying and it has added silver to the list of critical minerals at least in a draft version. Gold futures are exploding. We're trading around 34 3540 and silver is over $4140 in the futures market. Spot spot looks just as good of course slightly lower and we've invited a fantastic guest to discuss the latest moves. Gold was trading without an impulse. silver just as much and just in recent weeks. But just last week, at the end of last week, things started happening. Gold broke out, silver broke out, and we'll discover or discuss why that happened. But before I switch over to my guest, oh, who is Mario, by the way, I forgot to mention, really excited to have him on. He runs a phenomenal YouTube channel with some great commentary at Manco 64 on YouTube. Go check that out afterwards. And uh quick reminder, hit that like and subscribe button. Helps us out tremendously and we much much appreciate it. Now, Mario, it's great to have you back on the program. It's good to see you again. >> Nice to see you, too, Kai. >> Yeah, really looking forward to the next 30 minutes with you here, Mario. Lots has happened just in over the weekend, it feels like. Um, but maybe we'll start at the top. Like I mentioned, we might already be in a new gold standard environment. And I stole that, I have to admit, from one of your videos that you published, I think, over the weekend. And maybe elaborate on that topic a little bit because it's a hot topic. Yeah, I I mean we haven't really technically been been on a gold standard uh since like around World War I and even Bretton Woods was a gold exchange system. But the reason I mentioned that is that recently um we we've seen uh that uh gold reserves by foreign central banks have overtaken the dollar for the first time since uh I think 1996 and the trend looks set to continue. And the other thing as well is that uh all the major bricks countries and a lot of other countries uh Poland for example as well they're they're loading up on uh on gold uh as reserves for their central banks. I think the world is realizing they can't uh not just depend on the dollar as a major reserve uh asset but also they can't really u take the risk of having too many dollars uh as reserves as it's been used more and more as a weapon. So the only thing left a after that is uh gold. Uh gold is the only neutral uh monetary reserve asset that's been around for thousands of years. And the reason the dollar was ever uh a major or still is kind of a major reserve currency is because it used to be as good as gold. So that's why I I mentioned that. And uh I think we're going to go back to u a standard a gold standard anyway. Uh because uh what we have now is um dying. I don't buy into uh stable coins because uh all they're going to back that with is more and more uh fiat currency debt, which I think uh if fiat currencies go, that's going to go too. >> Let's talk stable coins here in a minute. Let's stay on on gold for a second. Um what what triggered the price rally? Like I mentioned in the intro, it felt like gold over the summer was just moving sideways or actually since May or so it's been moving sideways in a very tight range, but now it broke out at the end of the week. Was there a specific trigger or like what led to the the cattle finally boiling here? >> Well, on a technical basis, um I I think uh that consolidation since April was necessary because uh gold was overbought. it rallied like from 2600 to three and a half thousand in like four months uh in the beginning of the year. So it's normal that it consolidates and uh we we also saw like a few weeks ago it try to break out of this u symmetrical triangle uh which is uh on an upward trend it's usually a consolidation of the previous trend. uh but in technical analysis only like three out of four times it keeps going the same direction of the the trend which was up uh there is a chance that it might fail so it didn't fail uh so u what do I think triggered it in terms of fundamentals or outside events outside technical analysis I think it could have been the uh uh speech by um chairman uh Jay Pow at the Yeah, Jackson Hole Symposium a week or two ago where he said that the Fed's ready to cut in September. And then you mentioned before we came on about uh board the Fed board member Waller, he he said that depending on where non-farm payroll uh comes out at this Friday, uh we could see a jumbo cut. So he's implying that uh if we see a very weak non-farm payroll like we did last last month and also weak uh revisions uh they they could cut more than 25 basis points because right now uh Wall Street uh they're discounting an 87% chance of a 25 uh basis point cut on the 17th of September. But what what is a jumbo cut? Could it be 1% or I mean they did a kind of a jumbo cut last September by 50 basis points which surprised everyone. So I I think that's why uh gold is start started to take off geopolitically as well. I don't know if you wanted to go go into that right now. It looks like uh President Trump has been able to uh uh unify bricks even more even though he's been very critical of bricks. He's got two old arch rivals or enemies, China and India to uh make peace again and uh start talking. So um that's only going to solidify uh the bricks movement and the move away from the dollar. and uh you move away from the dollar, there's only one place to go. Um uh gold. >> Since we are on the topic of bricks and maybe Shanghai Corporation organization, that name drives me nuts, by the way, saying it. Um because it's very complicated if you want to say it fast. So the SEO, um there's a big meeting happening in Tanzhin in China right now. It's also part of a celebrating 80 years of defeating Japan in World War II, of course. Um what do you expect from that meeting to happen? the Financial Times and other western media is covering it extensively um talking about potential setup of a development bank amongst the SEO member states. Um what are some of the ramifications economically that you see coming out of that summit? >> Yeah, I I think the I mean I haven't looked at the details. I know they're meeting there. I I think the big take from this SEO is the fact that um uh Modi from uh India has gone there for the first time in seven years because India has been a member of this SEO but u the u relationship uh with China hasn't been very good. So, I think just the fact that he's gone there is a good thing. And I'm not sure whether the SEO is gonna really develop into like a starting some kind of uh bank like a national development bank. I think they already have that for the bricks the the the bricks national development bank. So yeah, I think the SEO is more like a I would say um the NATO for uh for bricks maybe. So but yeah, we have to wait and see uh if there there are uh more uh statements uh coming out of this conference. I think uh Xi Jinping uh announced that he's his ambition is to reshape uh the world order. So, I think they're very u very uh how can I say ambitious uh but it's not surprising. Uh I don't know if you remember I think it was beginning of this year in January or it could have been last year. Time goes by so quickly, but I don't know if you remember Putin and uh Xiinping met somewhere in Moscow and they're coming out of the Kremlin and and they said, "Well, this is going to be the biggest thing in a hundred years." And we didn't know what it was. So, um maybe >> do we know now? >> Not yet, but maybe we'll hear something out of the uh out of this uh summit. >> No, it's interesting. A lot of interesting members are participating in that summit. Kim Jong-un, Pakistan, Iran sending their leaders. Um like from a western perspective, it sounds very scary when these countries meet of course. What are your expectations coming out of it? Not just what you've heard, but what you expect to happen. Yeah, I I think in the west unfortunately uh well or you you might say fortunately we considered these groups like bricks and SEO like rivals to let's say U G7 and U NATO. So, I I was reading a few days ago, I think it was in the Telegraph here in the UK or the FT saying that uh you've only got authoritarians attending this summit, but uh you know uh our leaders in the in the West aren't that much better, you know, here in the UK. Uh I can be arrested for some saying saying something they don't like uh here on YouTube. So, uh yeah, that that's how the West sees it. But I I I think it's normal. The these other nations uh they've been under uh control of the west for hundreds of years and now they they've managed to get themselves out of poverty and they've developed quite fast. Uh you know they've got advanced economies and they want like an equal say. Well, at least they wanted it, let's say, in the IMF, in the UN, in the World Bank, but that wasn't given to them because the West is not willing to share power. So, that's what it leads to just like Trump uh being combative uh towards India has uh triggered Modi to to make this rapromo with uh with the Chinese. though uh we've only got ourselves to blame in the west for a lot that's happening instead of we could maybe be cooperating with these people and uh making the world a little more stable and peaceful but um unfortunately that's not the the uh modus operandi of the globalists uh in Brussels and Washington DC and London >> especially London I've been hearing a lot that the center of all evil apparent apparently is London without like um but um maybe to connect or to sort of join the first topic that we discussed was the gold standard and now the SEO bricks um I think the US or we are in general the west is pushing you know a new monetary system as you said and maybe goldbacked potentially as well do you expect that now to happen with the bricks and the SEO do you do you expect something to come out of that is it going to be the renimi that's going to be goldbacked or is it going to be new currency but What what do you see? What are you hearing? >> Yeah, I I don't see anything like that coming out um soon. But what what I think they're working on is having a a payment system for all the major bricks and global south currencies so they can uh pay each other without having to go through Swift. uh but uh what what's going to happen I think is they're going to use gold as a settlement u uh asset at the end of a fiscal year or whenever let's say a country has a surplus with another country and they've got they're holding on to loads of U1 for example they might say to the Chinese give me some of the gold I'll give you the U1 that I think that's what's going to happen I don't see them going for uh a single currency that's just u yeah that get puts countries in the straight jacket you know look at the the euro which is a currency a single currency for a continent that's fairly culturally similar uh even that is been really hard can you imagine having a single currency for all those brick nations in different continents I I can't but I can imagine them using the same reserve asset i.e. gold because everyone recognizes gold as as money especially in those countries. It's only in the west that we've been brainwashed into thinking that uh gold is just a barbarous relic or a pat rock. Yeah, those terms drive me nuts quite honestly. Um, no, but like maybe just on the bricks itself, it seems like they're quite divided still despite having a probably the same goal, but they're quite divided. Like you brought up uh Modi traveling to China uh for the first time in like seven years. India and China are not on the same page when it comes to many things like could that be like how should we consider that? >> Yeah, they they are. And I mean it's just like in the west there are countries that are kind of uh not on the same page. France, for example, has always been uh very independent and and uh willing to like buck the trend. Don't don't forget uh they they were against the uh Iraq invasion in 2003. So uh there's always going to be I think divisions uh within bricks but I think uh the Americans are making it so uh difficult uh that u the division is being like um yeah swallowed kind of swallowed and like uh it's uh making them cooperate. Just because you're part of a group uh doesn't mean to say that you're always going to agree on things. So that's how I see it. Um coming back to gold price itself like there you know we jumped down the rabbit hole of the bricks and the Shanghai corporation organization because the summit is happening right now. Um but looking at the gold price like is it just a factor of per not just technicals but also maybe a weaker dollar or are there any other factors um pulling on the price of gold right now? Are you looking at anything else? >> Yeah, I think so. the uh bond market uh throughout the the West and uh yeah, especially the longer end of the bond market uh yields have been creeping up quite yeah quite a bit. I mean uh in Japan uh we've seen the 30-year make all-time highs and the only reason it's all uh all-time highs I guess is because it only started being issued uh back in the late 90s. So yeah, it might might still I think still has a lot of room to go because if it had been trading prior to that, it probably would have been at 8 9%. But even the the German 30-year is uh trading at multi-year highs. we've got here in the UK the 30-year uh as we speak here is at a 20 27 uh year high and in the US uh even though it might be benefiting a little bit from the troubles like in France and the UK uh the 30-year in the US as well is approaching 5% and and what that's saying is that uh investors are not confident about all the debt that has to be uh taken on to keep this system going and that they expect the currencies to continue to be uh debased and I think that helps uh gold. In the past, people have said that higher yields are uh bearish for gold, but we've seen since 2022 that that is not the case. And it wasn't the case in the 70s either. And I think it's because we are in a bare market in bonds and yields are going to keep going up. While from 1980 to 2020, we were in a bull market. So uh gold seemed to uh trade uh let's say uh inversely. If yields went up, gold went down. But now it it's going the same direction uh because it's a bad kind of uh rise in yields. >> This seems like a good time to come back to stable coins cuz uh the US is working on introducing stable coins to issue more T bills or bonds as well. Um let let's be bit more granular. What what is your take on stable coins? A lot of people have been quite negative on stable coins as it could be an extra rush to liquidity. Um, I I've been jokingly saying, well, I'm expecting the next meme stock rally here, or um, you know, Reddit community crowdfunding and crowd pushing perhaps the the stable coins in the wrong direction and Roaring Kitty coming back just to manipulate the US uh, the financial system here, but all jokes aside here, Mario, like what could be the impact of stable coins and is that a new source of funding for for governments, the US in particular? Well, you know, I dealt in cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin years ago, and um a lot of times if you're trading those things, u you want to keep, let's say, you make a profit, uh you want to keep put it back in fiat and putting it in stable coins was convenient because it was supposedly back uh like Tether, one to one to the dollar. But uh what we've seen is that Tether has never been audited independently. And we we found out a few years ago that they hold a lot of uh treasuries, some commercial paper. We don't even know what they hold really. They don't really hold cash, Federal Reserve notes one to one. So that in itself is like it's not very u straightforward. But uh I I think uh the US government and the Trump administration are using this demand for a stable coin and that used to be the case because the crypto exchanges that whole ecosystem was separate from the uh main banking system. So they had to find something stable because they they could they didn't want to put things back in the dollar. But now uh I think uh the powers that be have realized we can use this as an instrument to keep people trapped in our system uh because they're going to need these stable coins uh and um yeah and they see that it could be like a a huge source of demand for US treasuries and uh it all has to do with what's going on with the dollar as a major reserve asset. People are abandoning it and it's a last uh ditch effort I think by the Americans to try to keep uh people demanding uh treasuries. I think it's going to fail because why can't other countries have their own stable coin? It's really it's really simple. You could have a U1 stable coin or a Euro stable coin. uh you don't have to have a dollar stable coin. >> I think China is working on introducing something like that as well. They just had a bill uh in their Congress, National Congress that was proposing something like that. Uh don't quote me on it exactly, but I've been reading something along those lines. So >> that's how I see the stable coins. I wouldn't really I mean it it's not really that stable because it's tied to the dollar and the dollar has lost 99% of its value uh in the last uh well since 1971 anyway >> last what is it 53 years 54 years doing the math in my head so yeah no absolutely um Mario we have to talk silver um silver of course finally broken out over $40 I think we can say the rally has been confirmed and Maybe the breakout has been confirmed now after two continuous days of trading above 40. Um what do you make of silver's breakout? What do you make of the price action? And uh is it sustainable? >> I think so. And uh I was looking this morning at the uh the high in 2011 and the uh low in 2019, the Fibonacci retracement. And we've gone through the uh 61.8% retracement. Uh there's a 76.2 2 retracement which is just below 40 42 but that's not a very important level. So uh there's not much resistance here until 50 which is a really uh key level. So I think it looks very good technically uh silver and uh I think uh we're going to start seeing some big moves higher but also some sharp corrections down. So you need to be um like ready for those. Uh you might see two three four $5 moves higher but you might see uh a corrections of the dollar downward too. But uh yeah I think silver is uh yeah ready to test that 50 level and it will be the third time basically in 45 years. So, and I think we're going to break through there and it's going to be very uh explosive once we do. >> The the breakout is fairly young in age, of course. I'm maybe asking a question that you might not be able to answer yet, Mario, but any any um feedback from the commercials? Are you seeing anything like in terms of their positioning? Has that changed? I know the coot report um is not out yet for for last as of last Friday, I believe. So, I'm curious like are you hearing anything? Are you seeing any trends? Well, I I I've read and listened to a few interviews like uh people like Egon von Gryard saying that he can't source any physical silver for his clients uh in Switzerland. Uh and uh yeah, I haven't looked at the commitment of traders yet, you know, how the open interest did. So, it's not something I follow very closely, but uh yeah, I think um yeah, there's a a problem there, you know, and uh we we might see open interest not really go up that much because uh the move higher can is might might have been a lot of short covering. >> Uh so that that like uh keeps the open interest neutral. Yeah, I'm visiting our sponsor Money Medals next or this Thursday and they're North America's largest private depository. Um, so I'll be uh I'll be getting some firsthand information on what it looks like on on the back end as well and what the commercials are doing here. Um, in terms of silver, I'm just trying to figure out like how how much leg or like whether this market has legs, right? And it obviously has. I think I'm I'm more trying to poke holes into the into the narrative here just to see what the downside might be um when it comes to that because I think it's really easy to make bull case but bare cases are really difficult for me to come up these days like do you see any bare cases for gold and silver right now Mario? No, I don't. Um I don't because I I don't see um aside from the fiscal and uh financial situation, there's also the geopolitical situation uh which isn't great, you know, um especially as it relates to Ukraine and Russia and the EU. EU seems to be determined not to really push for peace. So that's another one. And I Yeah. And as for the fiscal situation, they can't really uh do anything but try to uh keep uh pushing for more liquidity uh lower rates because you know the debt is uh gargantuan now. And uh in this system if we allow the debt to uh give any hint that it's going to like uh liquidate it's really bad for the system. So the the you know the the bigger the that gets the more serious it gets. So yeah I I don't don't expect them to uh get religion and by that I mean become like sound sound money advocates advocates of peace small government. I I don't see that happening. So yeah, I'll hold on to my gold and silver um until Yeah, until uh I don't know when, but uh >> I was going to say I don't have a counter argument. I can't even challenge you because I fully agree with what you're saying. There's just not a bear case inside really. Of course, world peace is the only one I could imagine. Then even that only probably dips gold maybe a hundred bucks at best and maybe silver a couple dollars. That's it. So we we we'll see. Um Mario is like silver is being deemed critical u by the USGS at least it has been added to the draft list uh it is proposing in terms of critical minerals how significant is that and what what are some of the ramifications maybe even thinking about the miners in the US when it comes to silver >> yeah I mean that is important I'm I'm surprised that it wasn't on that list before because it's really important for the military silver uh so yeah for the miners I guess uh that's really important too and I President Trump signed an executive order uh just around the time he took power took power for the second time about uh natural resources. So I think uh the Americans are going to continue to push for uh this uh yeah development and exploration uh of natural resources and uh I I think the world is becoming less and less of course globalized and the supply chains are becoming more and more precarious. So yeah, uh the US, Canada, maybe not Europe because we're still in this uh net zero philosophy, but a lot of places are going to start like u defending their natural resources. And like the dollar for example is not going to be accepted as much as it was prior to now. you know, the US didn't care about natural resources because it could just use the dollar to buy uh properties and natural resources anywhere around the world. But now that's becoming uh a little less uh less so because people are moving away from from the dollar and they're trying to protect their resources because they they want something of value in return for their resources. Uh maybe if the US starts paying in gold they they might open up a little more. >> We debated that last time whether there's even any gold in Fort Knox and whether we believe the audits. That was a hot topic when we spoke about 5 months ago Mario if you remember. Um but maybe last couple minutes Mario I just want to use to talk about the mining space in general. Um just looking at some opportunities. What are your thoughts on the mining sector? And for me primarily that's the gold and silver miners. um go new second best uh performing stock in the S&P 500 so far this year up 100% even. Uh what do you make of the miners performance and what should we be looking forward to? >> Yeah, I mean the miners uh they lagged quite a bit until recently till this year I think and um they're they're doing really well and they still have a lot of potential. Excuse me. uh especially the junior minors, but the junior minors are different uh because they're riskier. So, I think people should have a mix of uh both, you know, the the new months and of the world and the other ones, the juniors and but also silver, the silver miners, I think they have even more potential uh than the gold miners. And uh in terms of uh the balance between physical gold and silver and the miners, I I'm always uh personally I'm more conservative. I do have miners but uh the bulk of what I have is in in gold and silver but uh yeah I think uh the other thing about the miners uh don't leverage because it's it's going to be leveraged enough uh just by uh yeah because it's dangerous leveraging even in the bull market. >> Absolutely. I fully agree Mario. This is all we have time for. I need to invite you back very soon uh to to catch up on what might be coming out of the SEO summit here in Tanjing and the celebrations for the 80y year anniversary of beating Japan in World War II here. Um really interesting context, Mario. Really appreciate your insights. Where can we send our audience to follow more of your work? >> Yes, I'm on YouTube 64. Uh, I post a video or an interview every day and I'm also quite active on X or Twitter. Manco uh1964 is the handle there. >> Fantastic. Mario, thank you so much for coming on. It's great pleasure to catch up with you again and we'll have to do this again soon. Thank you so much. And everybody else, thanks so much for tuning in to Soore Financially. Hope you enjoyed this conversation with Mario and Neko. If you did, go check out his YouTube channel. And of course, don't forget to leave a like and a comment down below. And if you haven't done so, hit that subscribe button as well. It much or it helps us out tremendously. YouTube algorithm is a finicky beast these days, so we appreciate any support there. And it's free, of course, so we're not asking for any money from you either. Um, yeah. Thanks so much for tuning in. We'll be back with lots more. Take care out there. [Music]