Gold & Silver Targets | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor
Summary
Silver Outperformance: The guest is strongly bullish on silver over gold, expecting a parabolic move if long bonds panic and central banks intervene.
Gold & Silver Miners: Miners are described as extremely cheap versus gold on long-term metrics, with a rotation into miners—especially silver miners—anticipated this year.
Bond Market Risk: A potential mini-panic in US Treasuries could trigger aggressive central bank action, serving as a powerful catalyst for precious metals.
Dollar Trend: The US dollar is viewed as having broken down on momentum, supporting a broader bull move in commodities and a shift from paper to hard assets.
Oil Setup: Despite weak fundamentals, momentum triggers suggest crude could rally ~50% into the $90s once breakout levels are cleared.
Natural Gas: From historically cheap levels, nat gas is in a volatile uptrend and may continue grinding higher alongside the commodity complex.
Uranium View: Still in a bull trend after a major multi-year run, but less compelling versus monetary metals and broader commodities.
Equities vs Commodities: US equities look toppy and vulnerable, while commodity-related stocks are favored for upside and low correlation to the broader market.
Transcript
Hi, before we get on with the interview, just a quick reminder of our virtual gold conference happening this Friday, January the 23rd [music] at 8 a.m. Eastern time. We have some amazing speakers to speak on what's happening in terms [music] of precious metals and where the prices might be going here in the coming weeks. John Chapalia from Sprats Asset Management will speak on what he and his team are seeing in terms of [music] flows into the various spat products. We have some of the biggest and best gold producers [music] in the world including Igno, Centa Gold, Hemllo Mining, Ken Ross Gold, Oceanic Gold, and Oiscoco [music] Development. We also have Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council. He's going to speak on what central banks have been doing. [music] And then we're going to hear from our good friend Michael Oliver, and he's going to speak on what's happening [music] with gold and silver and where he thinks the S&P and the NASDAQ are going here in the coming days and weeks. Once again, that's this Friday, January the [music] 23rd at 8 a.m. Eastern time. And I hope to see you there. If you can't join us live, you can check this out anytime on [music] our YouTube channel, Blur Street Capital. Good luck in the markets. Michael, thank you very much for joining us today. Well, these politicians have really done it to us. Now, all these world leaders are over in Davos having a good time right now, and you and I are here grinding it out, and we're trying to make money and also protect our money. So, we have a lot to discuss here in a short period of time. I really don't know where to begin, but why don't we just begin with today's activities? When you look at the S&P, you look at the NASDAQ, they were both down 2 to 3%. What's your assessment of today's action? >> Well, the the key to watch, and we've been saying this for months, when we're focused on silver and gold, the key level to watch is the bond market because we know this time around, not like 2000, 2002, which is.com bubble. Okay, fine. Simple explain overdone sector or mortgages 2007 through9 you know this family that family a lot of mortgages okay this time it's a government bonds they're the the Titanics of the world ours the Japanese bonds UK you you name it they're all in dire straits and we know that and it's not because of just what's happening now it's been what's building up and building up and building up okay and now suddenly because of the events of the tariff versus you know the war between us and NATO and Europe and so forth. Uh it's put our they want to dump everything you know Europeans sell all those bonds etc. Fine okay good they should anyway what the heck u but T-bonds technically we've been assessing them continually. T-bond futures is what we look at. They're 30-year bond futures been around for decades. Okay that does not influenced by the Fed's short-term rate cuts. In fact, they've cut rates, you know, for a period of time here and the T-bond yields are nailed to the ceiling, high prices low. And if you slip those prices down much below where they are now, the T-bond futures price, two, three points below where they're trading now. They reached into the 113s today. Okay, I'll explain that in a minute. You could precipitate a panic where you don't just get a price drop, but you get like a real quick couple day, oh my, you know, crash type fear. Okay, you can't have that in the bond market. It's bigger than this. It'll it stock market doesn't compare to the deep bond market. And it's not just us. It's Japan. We know that. Uh T bonds collapsed from 2020 to 2022. October 2022, they made a low. They dropped from 18090 on the T bond price down to 117. Much of that occurring in the year 2022. Okay. Since October 2022, you can draw a line sideways on the price chart or across the yields on a high level. It's gone dead. Staying at those levels either side of that 117 price level. Right now, we're actually below it. There have been three bond rally attempts in that last couple years, three years where there have been rally efforts to try to get it up off the floor, dropped the yields, and they've not taken hold. None of the rallies have worked. None of the dips in yield have sustained. They've gone right back up. Okay? If you slip down now much below today's low by a couple points and we'll get more specific we do with our subscribers you could precipitate a what we call at least a mini panic and I I know that the Fed will intervene because already in November Williams the head of the New York Fed announced or in a press conference stated that the U that the Fed was going to quote start buying bonds. Why? He said, "Oh, just because liquidity in the market needed more liquidity." Okay. Didn't say anything about the, you know, how bad they were anyway, but liquidity. Okay, fine. They've been buying bonds since November. It's evidence. You can see. And bonds have dropped from 117 116 and for the last couple months in the narrowest price range in T-bond futures history. Like they're dead. They can't rally, but they also don't go down. Now, suddenly today punched out that recent low in just below 115. We even got below 113 today. Now, we've got some trigger levels require a few more points, but if you do that, you could get this thing to start to puke. You cannot have that kind of event. Everything else is meaningless. If T- bonds start to go down, people go hands in the air. Okay? And same with the central bank. Well, what's the prime beneficiary of the central banks going berserk, printing money, expanding money supplies, playing games? Gold, real money. Silver, real money. And that's why today you've got this sharp down in the S&P based on the the news about the T-bonds, especially in Japan having crashed and ours are behaving sick. Um, but gold's up sharply, silver's up even more sharply, and the miners are up. I thought the miners were supposed to go down with the stock market. Remember that, you know, sharp drop in the stock market, miners go down. Instead, they're up 3 or 4%. What's going on? Okay, what's going on is reality. The question is, do we get a further sharp drop in the T- bonds like real soon? Because if that happens, you could see verticality in silver and gold like you've not seen so far in this advance. I'll pause there. and we can go on with those later on. But anyway, that that's right now we're sitting on a potential tender box that could literally unfold in days and both directions. >> So, your big concern are the the bonds, the US bonds, and I always watch the 10-year and 10ear's gone from like 4% up to 430, call it. Uh I don't watch the 30-year. Where what's the yield on that? >> I I don't even keep up with it. It's like five or something. I look at the price. But the point is it's nailed at its ceiling. The yields haven't come down for the last several years since 2022 when they surged. And yet the Fed's cut rates are on the short end. They don't control that that beast. And that beast is too big to be to let go. Uh the now there's a very Yeah, go ahead. >> I was just going to say this is another big concern with the US government because they have $8 trillion worth of bonds uh that are maturing this year. They have to roll them over and they have to refinance them hopefully at a lower interest rate. >> But if things continue like this, they're not going to get those lower interest rates. To your point, they can't control the short end. >> The the long end. Yeah. The the long end they can't control. Yeah. Uh the the issue is though the speed of this event, if we're entering like what Japan just experienced last night and their T-bonds, their bond market, uh which has been going up in yields and yields ongoing, but now it's spiking. Uh, we're starting to do if we start to do the same thing. Uh-oh. That's like a nuclear event, especially for markets. And we know the central bank will go as berserk as they possibly can. They know what all kinds of tools they've had in the past. They'll use them all. They'll invent new ones. I don't know what they're going to do, but they will have to panic because it's too big not to intervene. Uh the question then is our assessment of silver in particular. We think gold is and silver are going up a lot more this year. A lot more. Okay. Multiples more. Uh but silver is going to beat the pants off of gold. Silver is very depressed to gold. We all know that. It's been depressed for a long time. So that hasn't worked. But the technicals that say it shifted into an outperform versus gold occurred in November at the close. By our metrics, we said, "Okay, game is on. Silver's going to launch versus gold. It's since it's now up to 2% of the price of gold. Early this year, last year it was at 1% of the price of an ounce of gold. So, it's doubled in relative value over a year. And if you go back in history and look at where was an ounce of silver versus an ounce of gold as a percent and let's say the 1980 bull market peak when we hit 50 bucks that old range. Okay. Was it 6 and 12%. 6 and a half we're at two. Okay. And in 2011 peak when we hit 50 the second time it was over 3%. We're at two. Our technicals show us that that spread relationship has broken out and we're likely. Think about this. Silver's been in a 50y year, half a century dull range, suppressed, whatever. Gold hasn't been. Gold blows the heck out of every prior bull high. Copper is not where it was back in the 1970s, 80s, 90s, 2000. It's four times that price. Silver, for some reason, has been contained. Whether that's manipulation or a combination of events, it made a mistake. And whenever markets make a mistake, they tend to compensate for it and quite often overcompensate in a tantrum. This has happened many times in markets. It's it's not usual, but it happens. Copper did it in 20056. Lead did it in 2007. We quadrupled in a couple quarters to a new reality. If silver does that, our projection is you could see silver this year $300 to $500 an ounce. Okay? Now, much of that should occur within the first couple quarters of that spread breakout, meaning much of it should occur by middle of this year in a thunderbolt tantrum move. Um, this event that's going on now with T-Bonds could help speed that up because it panics the central bank. And if you're an investor and you look at the horizon, what do you got? Do you want to buy the stock market? The world's selling it now. You want to buy the T- bonds? Uh-uh. What's left? What's doing well? Well, what your buddy down the street told you six months ago that he did and you didn't do it. You know, you buy silver. Instead, all we're hearing on the internet is, "Let's short it. Let's short it. It's over. It's over." you know, uh I think this surge that we get in the immediate horizon if those T- bonds slip a bit more could take silver well past 100, which might be sort of a normal guy's expectation of where the doubling of the old $50 high, you know, and you get a midpoint stumble in this six-month explosion, which we do expect to get a midpoint fake out stumble. Where's it going to be? Is it going to be at a logical level or at some level it just turns people's heads like 130 bucks or something? These events that are now going on with T-Bonds could precipitate that. And if they do, watch out for the Supreme Court because if those guys come in and say, "Hey, we're going to step into history here. We're not going to let you do that." Or at least try not to. Uh and create doubt about whether he can do it. In which case, oh, panic's over, right? uh you could get a lot of volatility at that point anyway. Long silver over gold. >> So you're suggesting >> Yeah. You're you're suggesting Congress isn't going to do the right thing. So the Supreme Court >> they'd be too slow anyway. The Supreme Court could do it like they put their foot down and say, "Okay, we've already decided, you know, we got enough majority or whatever. Uh we don't want you to do that. Can't let you do that." And even if he goes to some alternate policy, which he says he's got, you know, and all this stuff, fine, good, okay, whatever. But the point is that would at least temporarily help put out the fire that we perceive to be of Europeans dumping our bonds, Europeans dumping our stocks, etc. It won't sustain a turn, but it could create that kind of, oh, fever's over. In which case, if that fever has been driving silver and gold o over the last few days, for example, uh then yeah, it might create a correction. But the question is where? Where do you go before you get that? And I'm of the view that probably you're going to be well past 100 before you even see a correction. You could say, "Oh, there's the midpoint of the time six month span uh where you get a wobble." Uh anyway, it's an important level because people that got calls got to be concerned about that, you know, >> and and so your point is if we do get a correction uh because of the Supreme Court ruling and we get a correction in gold, we get a correction in silver >> and it pulls back, let's just say 20 or 30%, given the moves, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see that kind of a pullback. But that's a buying opportunity. That's where you got to step in again. >> Yeah. No, this bigger reality is not based on the the things we see now that have just occurred. tariff, for example, that only became a market term in 2025. Before that, it wasn't an issue. We still had a bubble stock market well before we ever had tariffs. Okay? You'd had a 15-year bull that took the S&P up 10fold and the NASDAQ up 20fold over a span of decade and a half. Money printing, M2 growth, free money in the Fed funds rate. So, you already had a bubble. So this issue of the tariff coming going type issue is not really the factor. It's the newsy factor right now. But there's bigger issues. Same with the T-bond market. It's not in trouble now just because we have tariffs. It's in trouble because it's in trouble. Jamie Diamond has said that for months. You know, you can't keep playing this game decade by decade. And and and you you've got to face the consequences pretty soon that you've got a spending problem versus the GDP. you know, etc. So, anyway, we're in that and don't run if you've got leverage positions like I do. I have some leverage positions, uh, especially call options or SLV for example, I'm keen to move those over and move more into unleveraged at that point because I the big move is still coming later this year after this jiggle, whenever we get the jiggle. >> That's good to know, Michael. What's your I'm just curious what your time frame in is on those call options. >> Well, I'm in September's now. So, and and I've already been lightening my position and moving more into junior minors because I think right now from the perspective of this coming year, but probably even the come next six months, if there is an asset on the planet that is overly cheap in relation to anything else, including the metals they get out of the ground, it's the gold and silver miners. They are free compared to their historic valuations to an ounce of gold. And when we examine the technicals of let's say you the XAU index which is the gold and silver miners index been around since the 1980s. We plot that history of its relative valuation to gold. We can see a technical breakout level that we're right now challenging that goes back 11 years where that's been confined in this little base at exceptionally cheap relative levels. Dirt cheap. Like between 4 and 8% of the price of gold. Back in the 80s, the '9s, 2000 through 2008, it was on average 25% of the price of an ounce of gold. and we're now rallying to over 8%. That's how cheap it is. And it's got technical wherewithal to explode up out of that base. Meaning suddenly investors say, "Hey, I want to own the miners." And then when we reduce it down to the silver miners versus the gold miners, we see an even more explosive situation. So, as I transition out of leveraged in process, I'm moving more into unleveraged miners because I think that's where the real bang for the buck comes the rest of this year. >> And Michael, just because you're talking about the miners, I should probably remind everybody this Friday, January the 23rd, at 8 a.m. Eastern, we're holding a virtual gold conference. We have some of the best gold mining companies in the world there including Igno, Ken Ross Gold, Oceanana Gold, Hemllo Mining, Oisco Development. And so I would highly suggest you uh check it out. Michael's also going to be speaking there. You can see a link below in the show notes. Once again, that's this Friday, January the 23rd at 8 a.m. Eastern time. So, you talked about uh silver. You think we we're going to see a new reality in terms of price. What about gold? >> Yes. Uh, gold's reality is this. While silver's been capped in this half a century silly range compared to any other asset on the planet practically, uh, gold hasn't. Gold made a high in 1980, then made another in 2011. They were each eightfold gains from bare low to bull high, higher bare low, next bull high. Eight-fold gains from bare low to high. Okay. Our bare low is $1,50 in December 2015. Okay, we're only a little bit more than four-fold right now. If we went to eightfold and quote did it again, in other words, the norm. Okay, have another normal global market like the two we've just had in the past 50 years. You'd be $8,500 gold just to do the norm. And yet, we're in a different world now. Yeah, like the T-bonds, they're not they're in crisis mode. They weren't back in those particular times. Uh we're in a different So, just to go to 8,500. Wow. You you think that's crazy. No, it's not. It's done done it twice before. And yet silver is just now taken out. It's 1980 high and it's 2011 high. It's got a lot of catching up to do. And also on that percentage basis, you know, ounce of silver and ounce of gold, it's it's off the page cheap. And what if silver again not only take out its 50-year highs on price and went nuts and get went to a new reality? Why shouldn't those spreads go up and challenge or me, but take out those highs 6 and a half%. 1980 to 3.1% 2011 we're at 2%. And if gold is 8,000 bucks, only 8,000 bucks, a normal eight-fold move, and silver goes to 3% or goes to 6 and a half, it's off the page, you know. So that's what we're looking at. And it's not going to be incremental arm wrestling. It's going to be sudden. >> Now, you are very concerned about US bonds. What about the US dollar? Because that's also coming under pressure. >> Dollar is u already broken. And our estimate it broke in April last year at no excuse me March of last year at a price of 10421 closing price that month. We put out a major sell signal said the dollar is now in a bear. Price chart wasn't price chart has been laying for the last wow couple quarters on an uptrend that anybody with a crayon and a ruler could go back to like 2008 on the dollar index. Remember, the dollar index doesn't measure the real buying power of the dollar. It measures it versus two other fiats, especially yen and the euro, okay? Euro and yen in that order. They're 70% of the dollar index. So, it's one piece of crap versus a couple of others, but uh so it's not as real buying power, but versus them, it's broken a momentum uptrend. When I use a three-year average oscillator or a 10-year average, there's a momentum trend line that while price is holding that line, or rather this way laying on the line for a couple quarters now, no rally off of that price chart line, just laying there like it's dead, but momentum already broke that comparable structure. Price will break it, too. So, if you see the dollar slip from it's now 98 something, so it's only about six points below where we sit sell it. uh and you see it get down to, you know, much below 95, let's say. Even the price guys are going to say, "Oh gosh, it didn't hold." And I think you'll assault the old lows at 70, which we saw, you know, a couple decades ago. >> Wow. >> But that's just again, that's just that's sort of meaningless because it's like, you know, who cares? It's one piece of paper versus another. They're both degenerating in real value year by year, decade by decade. Uh it's real value. uh is you know I've said this probably in an interview before your granddad built a house for400 your dad built one for 45,000 and now you if you want to build build the median price it's 450,000 there degeneration of the currency >> yes and you rais a very good point I should throw out a few numbers just for the benefit of our viewers when it comes to the money supply you often hear people talk about >> money printing and when you look at the money supply is measured by M2 to in January of 2020 before all of this craziness started. The uh money supply was 15.4 trillion. Now it is well over 22 trillion. That's an increase of 42%. So to your point, it's not like that you bought for a million dollar. >> Get you up near 100% in a decade. Yeah. Yeah. >> Exactly. I mean that's what's happening. Maybe next month. [laughter] >> Maybe next month if the T- bonds don't hold because they're going to pull out those fire hoses like crazy. I mean, mortgages are one thing and defending a bank here and there, that's another. Uh, and even back then in 2009, they didn't quite defend the banks that well. You know, some of them aren't here anymore. But, uh, the T- bonds go, oh, the fire hoses will be very fat. Uh, and >> now, I started this conversation by asking you about the S&P. Um, what are your thoughts? Are you are you concerned about the S&P? Do you think we're going to see or we could see a 20 to 30% drop? No, I think you can see 50% or more, but I think it's it's going to be more layered than a collapse. The we think that since 2025, early in the year, February, I think it made its high last year, so a year ago almost, it was uh just below 6,200 on the S&P. Right now we're trading what? 67 something. Yeah. So, we're up, you know, 10% or so above that high peak of last year. >> [clears throat] >> I think it's been a topping process since then. Our momentum work, forget the price chart. Price chart beta high had a sell-off low back took out the high. So, it's been zigzagged either side of last year's price high. Down then up, now headed back down again. We think that's a topping process on price. While momentum has not made new highs, when price came up and made new highs this year, momentum said, "Uh-uh, I'm not even near the 2025 high." And there's certain levels on price that if you get to on a monthly close during this year, you'll start breaking some of the structures on annual momentum and on quarterly momentum, which are two long-term momentum metrics we look at. They're not far below where you are right now, but I want a monthly close there. But even when you break those, I don't think it's necessarily anything that collapses. Yeah, sure you might shed 10 or 20%, but you know, we do that quite often in the stock market. I'm talking about something allah that October event in 2008 where you drop like 35% in a couple weeks. I don't think that's on the horizon until you get much further down than we are now. U I I won't specify the number. We we do that in our reports, but it's not near where we are now. So we could get some selloff now that could hurt and and cause people to lose all the money they made last year for example. So a whole year wiped out in the first part of 2026 but not precipitous you know the kind that generates the irrational selling of silver and gold miners because the stock market went down. And by the way those people need to wake up a very sharp day in the stock market today and yet they're up three or four%. No. Uh but I don't think that kind of stock market collapse is immediate. I think it could happen later in the year. So that that market I think is not a place to be. I think commodities are in general and commodity stocks including oil by the way. >> Okay. Before we before we jump into oil, I want to first ask you about the these bonds because >> the largest holder of US treasuries in the world is Japan. They own about a trillion [clears throat] dollars worth. China owns $800 billion worth. The UK owns $800 billion worth. I'm kind of wondering, once again, this is all speculation, but right now we got a sell the US trade going on. If these nations, let's just say the European nations start selling US bonds and US stocks, >> we could get one hell of a selloff here. >> Yeah, I guess you could. And I I just I I still think the stock market selloff this time is not going to be have the consequence that it had in 2008 on the miners particularly. Gold also had a bad month that month in October 2008. But remember the stock market had already been dropping a full year from October 2007 to October before it had that crash type event in October 2008. And yet gold and silver have been going up during that time. It wasn't until you got into the summer of 2008 that they started to weaken with the stock market and then even it was very brief. Stock market continued down until March 2009 and gold was back at its highs by early 2009. Okay. And and the Fed had instituted QE in November 2008 right after that crash. So I don't think you see the stock market as being a precipitous problem. The one that is potentially precipitous is the bond market, which is way too big to allow, meaning they're going to have to go ape to prevent that and and do policies that you know even Powell will have to do. Of course, and if he doesn't, [laughter] uh, you know what Trump's going to say? Powell caused all this. Okay, [laughter] it's a neat game anyway. But I'd be watching the T- bonds. The dollar will, I think, yes, will follow. If you slip another several points on the dollar index, it will start to drop. And of course, what does that do to the Europeans who own a lot of US stocks in the last few years? They're not only losing on stock price, but they're losing on their conversion back to the [clears throat] euro. So, that could become an issue as well once that dollar index really does start to to slip on down. Uh, so these factors are in play and I think gold and silver have known it all along. >> All right. You touched on oil. >> Yeah. >> Sounds like you're bullish on oil. Give me your thoughts. >> Not yet, but I'll tell you what I see. >> That oil drop we recently had that took us back into the mid 55 level. Okay. But if you look at oil since that surge that peaked three weeks after the Ukraine Russia war began, it peaked. Okay. So the war didn't take it up. It had already gone up most of the way before that war ever occurred. Since then, oil dropped from 130, collapsed down by 2023 to the $70 range and oscillated between the 60s and the 70s and 80s like dead sideways basically. Nice swings, but really wasn't going anywhere. Last year you had a little panic sell off that got you down in the mid50s 55 area and you had another one a week or so ago where you got down there again. Most fundamental analysts that I hear say nah going to 40 going back to 40. What they don't and that's based on their assessment of oil fundamentals. Okay. What they don't assess is the relative value of oil. A barrel of oil measured against any asset you want to measure against. It's off the page cheap. Yeah. In humankind, we may evolve beyond oil. You know, it be solar or nuclear, whatever, but it's not going to happen right away. And right now, oil at 60 buck level measured against gold. Even I recently heard against silver, it's a record low because silver went up and oil went down. You've got to factor that in when you assess a market that's dirt cheap. You can take all the fundamentals you want and say, "Well, there's so much oil behind technically we have a massive momentum structure that if you get up several points above where you are now, again, this something we specified in our reports and close out a month during this quarter, not far from where you are now, despite all the negative fundamentals, momentum says, I'm coming out of And it would not shock me that when we get our momentum breakout in oil, it will suddenly catch up to the already rising commodity complex. Bloomberg for example was in the 100 levels now 113 115 level. So it's gone up some. Bloomberg commodity index. Oil is the sick one. But it's got a trigger above it. If you get there, it wouldn't shock me if oil went up 50% in a couple quarters like into the 90s. And boy would that upset people, especially Donald Trump, but who's, you know, promised low gas prices. Uh, and also the average guy, because remember, his life is his day-to-day reality. And the one thing he can smile about is gasoline prices are staying low at least. If all of a sudden they jump 50%, that even that goes out the window. And if you also take away his retirement gains of last year in a matter of a couple weeks, he's back to where he was in late 2024 and he's about to retire. Then all of a sudden emotion comes into play and doubt the hands in the air and that's reflected politically and doesn't necessarily favor the Democrat party. It fragments both parties as they are now. You may end up with a three-party system or a four-party system in this country. in this crisis because nobody's sure about what's working. Get the point? Uh, >> okay. Talk about gas prices, Michael. I just filled up for a $14 a liter. >> Yeah. >> I haven't seen it that cheap in years. >> Well, and that gas made a load down near a buck, you know, some months ago, and it shot up to about four, pull back to about three. Natural gas is very volatile over history. It's proven that it doesn't trend nicely. Sometimes it'll explode like we caught that move up to 10 bucks that occurred a couple years ago. Uh and also warned of a drop, but we didn't know it would go back to two bucks or one buck. Uh but it's in a roughly positive trend right now. Irregular nasty zigzags, but it's in a upward grind from what is very historically cheap low levels for natural gas. So it's sort of like crude. The lows we've seen recently in natural gas are just, you know, you go back through history and just look at a price chart. You know, what are you going to do? Go to zero? You know, um, and so, yeah, the energy sector is somewhat of a lagard now to the commodity complex. Back in that 2022 bull 2122 surge, they were a leader. This time they're a lagard within the complex. >> Michael, do you have a view on uranium? >> Yeah. Uh, I'm not real excited about it. We we got bullish on uranium under 20 bucks back in 2017. It went over 100 uh in August a year and a half ago. We said uh it was yeah August two summers ago we said there could be a correction. Watch out. We thought it would go down to about its three-ear average. It did. It held around there based. It's now turned back up. It's in a bull trend, but it's already had a monster move from the depths under 20 to over 100. So, factor that in. Yes, it's in a bull trend and you're probably going to go up and ultimately take out that high, but it's it's probably not going to be dynamic and it's certainly not going to rival the broader commodity complex what we expect to see there and certainly not get anywhere close to what the monetary metals are going to do. So, yeah, positive but sort of ho. So the overarching theme that I'm hearing from you is that you got to sell paper assets and buy hard assets and that could be >> that's a reality that a lot of >> real estate oil. >> Yeah. Uh agricultural real estate would be a good place to look because it's connected to grains and I think the grains will they based I think they will participate on the upside. Uh they priced themselves out. You can almost tell by looking at the price charts even. But our momentum studies of like the Bloomberg versus the S&P. Bloomberg is a well balanced index. It's not overly weighted in energy for example, which so many are. Uh and you look at where it is versus 20 years ago or so. 2008, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, for example, was at 235 or so. Right now, it's 115. We're like half the price where we were in 2008. So, it's even low versus its old highs. when you measure it versus where it was on the S&P then it collapsed in relative value to effectively what you look at in the spread chart is it's free okay you know I think there is an asset class shift already underway where smart money is already saying okay I think this paper asset especially US stock market is probably overdone I'm not going to try to pick the top I'm just going to start moving assets and I'm going to move over into commod commodity related. Yeah, some gold miners and silver miners. I wish I'd done it before. That's what they're saying to themselves. But also grain related, oil related, especially if oil breaks out like we said. Uh oil related stocks, grain related base metal miners, they're real strong now, copper, so forth. Uh, I think there's a a thought process underway and I suspect if this asset class shift does fully get going and I think it's going to in the next few months, you'll start to see evidence. It'll last for years. In other words, it'll been the place to have been this year going forward. Not just a trade, but a major shift in human preference. I want something real. I want to touch it. You know what I mean? Uh, and a sense of ground instead of, you know, what is AI anyway? Okay. >> So, if you've missed out on AI, you can make your money on commodities. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think commodity related stocks, you don't have to buy the commodities themselves. Uh, there's vehicles to do that, but I think the commodity related stocks are a place to be and they do not correlate well with the stock market. So don't be fearful of owning stocks, oil stocks, grain related, base metal related. If the stock market goes down, they do not correlate. They can easily have a bull while it goes down. So they're not part of the package. >> Well, this has been a great discussion, uh, Michael, and I just want to remind our viewers again about a virtual gold conference coming up this Friday, January the 23rd, at 8 a.m. Eastern time. There's a link below in the show notes. And Michael, if someone would like to follow you or read more about your research or find out about your services, where can they go? >> oliversa.com. MSA for momentum structural analysis. Uh, and you find my beautiful picture there and my email address. Click on it and ask me for some samples. Be happy to send some sample reports. >> And I will also include a link below in the show notes. Michael, thank you very much for making uh this time, especially on such short notice with so much going on in the world. >> Thank you, James. See you later. >> Take care. [music] >> [music]
Gold & Silver Targets | Michael Oliver and Jimmy Connor
Summary
Transcript
Hi, before we get on with the interview, just a quick reminder of our virtual gold conference happening this Friday, January the 23rd [music] at 8 a.m. Eastern time. We have some amazing speakers to speak on what's happening in terms [music] of precious metals and where the prices might be going here in the coming weeks. John Chapalia from Sprats Asset Management will speak on what he and his team are seeing in terms of [music] flows into the various spat products. We have some of the biggest and best gold producers [music] in the world including Igno, Centa Gold, Hemllo Mining, Ken Ross Gold, Oceanic Gold, and Oiscoco [music] Development. We also have Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council. He's going to speak on what central banks have been doing. [music] And then we're going to hear from our good friend Michael Oliver, and he's going to speak on what's happening [music] with gold and silver and where he thinks the S&P and the NASDAQ are going here in the coming days and weeks. Once again, that's this Friday, January the [music] 23rd at 8 a.m. Eastern time. And I hope to see you there. If you can't join us live, you can check this out anytime on [music] our YouTube channel, Blur Street Capital. Good luck in the markets. Michael, thank you very much for joining us today. Well, these politicians have really done it to us. Now, all these world leaders are over in Davos having a good time right now, and you and I are here grinding it out, and we're trying to make money and also protect our money. So, we have a lot to discuss here in a short period of time. I really don't know where to begin, but why don't we just begin with today's activities? When you look at the S&P, you look at the NASDAQ, they were both down 2 to 3%. What's your assessment of today's action? >> Well, the the key to watch, and we've been saying this for months, when we're focused on silver and gold, the key level to watch is the bond market because we know this time around, not like 2000, 2002, which is.com bubble. Okay, fine. Simple explain overdone sector or mortgages 2007 through9 you know this family that family a lot of mortgages okay this time it's a government bonds they're the the Titanics of the world ours the Japanese bonds UK you you name it they're all in dire straits and we know that and it's not because of just what's happening now it's been what's building up and building up and building up okay and now suddenly because of the events of the tariff versus you know the war between us and NATO and Europe and so forth. Uh it's put our they want to dump everything you know Europeans sell all those bonds etc. Fine okay good they should anyway what the heck u but T-bonds technically we've been assessing them continually. T-bond futures is what we look at. They're 30-year bond futures been around for decades. Okay that does not influenced by the Fed's short-term rate cuts. In fact, they've cut rates, you know, for a period of time here and the T-bond yields are nailed to the ceiling, high prices low. And if you slip those prices down much below where they are now, the T-bond futures price, two, three points below where they're trading now. They reached into the 113s today. Okay, I'll explain that in a minute. You could precipitate a panic where you don't just get a price drop, but you get like a real quick couple day, oh my, you know, crash type fear. Okay, you can't have that in the bond market. It's bigger than this. It'll it stock market doesn't compare to the deep bond market. And it's not just us. It's Japan. We know that. Uh T bonds collapsed from 2020 to 2022. October 2022, they made a low. They dropped from 18090 on the T bond price down to 117. Much of that occurring in the year 2022. Okay. Since October 2022, you can draw a line sideways on the price chart or across the yields on a high level. It's gone dead. Staying at those levels either side of that 117 price level. Right now, we're actually below it. There have been three bond rally attempts in that last couple years, three years where there have been rally efforts to try to get it up off the floor, dropped the yields, and they've not taken hold. None of the rallies have worked. None of the dips in yield have sustained. They've gone right back up. Okay? If you slip down now much below today's low by a couple points and we'll get more specific we do with our subscribers you could precipitate a what we call at least a mini panic and I I know that the Fed will intervene because already in November Williams the head of the New York Fed announced or in a press conference stated that the U that the Fed was going to quote start buying bonds. Why? He said, "Oh, just because liquidity in the market needed more liquidity." Okay. Didn't say anything about the, you know, how bad they were anyway, but liquidity. Okay, fine. They've been buying bonds since November. It's evidence. You can see. And bonds have dropped from 117 116 and for the last couple months in the narrowest price range in T-bond futures history. Like they're dead. They can't rally, but they also don't go down. Now, suddenly today punched out that recent low in just below 115. We even got below 113 today. Now, we've got some trigger levels require a few more points, but if you do that, you could get this thing to start to puke. You cannot have that kind of event. Everything else is meaningless. If T- bonds start to go down, people go hands in the air. Okay? And same with the central bank. Well, what's the prime beneficiary of the central banks going berserk, printing money, expanding money supplies, playing games? Gold, real money. Silver, real money. And that's why today you've got this sharp down in the S&P based on the the news about the T-bonds, especially in Japan having crashed and ours are behaving sick. Um, but gold's up sharply, silver's up even more sharply, and the miners are up. I thought the miners were supposed to go down with the stock market. Remember that, you know, sharp drop in the stock market, miners go down. Instead, they're up 3 or 4%. What's going on? Okay, what's going on is reality. The question is, do we get a further sharp drop in the T- bonds like real soon? Because if that happens, you could see verticality in silver and gold like you've not seen so far in this advance. I'll pause there. and we can go on with those later on. But anyway, that that's right now we're sitting on a potential tender box that could literally unfold in days and both directions. >> So, your big concern are the the bonds, the US bonds, and I always watch the 10-year and 10ear's gone from like 4% up to 430, call it. Uh I don't watch the 30-year. Where what's the yield on that? >> I I don't even keep up with it. It's like five or something. I look at the price. But the point is it's nailed at its ceiling. The yields haven't come down for the last several years since 2022 when they surged. And yet the Fed's cut rates are on the short end. They don't control that that beast. And that beast is too big to be to let go. Uh the now there's a very Yeah, go ahead. >> I was just going to say this is another big concern with the US government because they have $8 trillion worth of bonds uh that are maturing this year. They have to roll them over and they have to refinance them hopefully at a lower interest rate. >> But if things continue like this, they're not going to get those lower interest rates. To your point, they can't control the short end. >> The the long end. Yeah. The the long end they can't control. Yeah. Uh the the issue is though the speed of this event, if we're entering like what Japan just experienced last night and their T-bonds, their bond market, uh which has been going up in yields and yields ongoing, but now it's spiking. Uh, we're starting to do if we start to do the same thing. Uh-oh. That's like a nuclear event, especially for markets. And we know the central bank will go as berserk as they possibly can. They know what all kinds of tools they've had in the past. They'll use them all. They'll invent new ones. I don't know what they're going to do, but they will have to panic because it's too big not to intervene. Uh the question then is our assessment of silver in particular. We think gold is and silver are going up a lot more this year. A lot more. Okay. Multiples more. Uh but silver is going to beat the pants off of gold. Silver is very depressed to gold. We all know that. It's been depressed for a long time. So that hasn't worked. But the technicals that say it shifted into an outperform versus gold occurred in November at the close. By our metrics, we said, "Okay, game is on. Silver's going to launch versus gold. It's since it's now up to 2% of the price of gold. Early this year, last year it was at 1% of the price of an ounce of gold. So, it's doubled in relative value over a year. And if you go back in history and look at where was an ounce of silver versus an ounce of gold as a percent and let's say the 1980 bull market peak when we hit 50 bucks that old range. Okay. Was it 6 and 12%. 6 and a half we're at two. Okay. And in 2011 peak when we hit 50 the second time it was over 3%. We're at two. Our technicals show us that that spread relationship has broken out and we're likely. Think about this. Silver's been in a 50y year, half a century dull range, suppressed, whatever. Gold hasn't been. Gold blows the heck out of every prior bull high. Copper is not where it was back in the 1970s, 80s, 90s, 2000. It's four times that price. Silver, for some reason, has been contained. Whether that's manipulation or a combination of events, it made a mistake. And whenever markets make a mistake, they tend to compensate for it and quite often overcompensate in a tantrum. This has happened many times in markets. It's it's not usual, but it happens. Copper did it in 20056. Lead did it in 2007. We quadrupled in a couple quarters to a new reality. If silver does that, our projection is you could see silver this year $300 to $500 an ounce. Okay? Now, much of that should occur within the first couple quarters of that spread breakout, meaning much of it should occur by middle of this year in a thunderbolt tantrum move. Um, this event that's going on now with T-Bonds could help speed that up because it panics the central bank. And if you're an investor and you look at the horizon, what do you got? Do you want to buy the stock market? The world's selling it now. You want to buy the T- bonds? Uh-uh. What's left? What's doing well? Well, what your buddy down the street told you six months ago that he did and you didn't do it. You know, you buy silver. Instead, all we're hearing on the internet is, "Let's short it. Let's short it. It's over. It's over." you know, uh I think this surge that we get in the immediate horizon if those T- bonds slip a bit more could take silver well past 100, which might be sort of a normal guy's expectation of where the doubling of the old $50 high, you know, and you get a midpoint stumble in this six-month explosion, which we do expect to get a midpoint fake out stumble. Where's it going to be? Is it going to be at a logical level or at some level it just turns people's heads like 130 bucks or something? These events that are now going on with T-Bonds could precipitate that. And if they do, watch out for the Supreme Court because if those guys come in and say, "Hey, we're going to step into history here. We're not going to let you do that." Or at least try not to. Uh and create doubt about whether he can do it. In which case, oh, panic's over, right? uh you could get a lot of volatility at that point anyway. Long silver over gold. >> So you're suggesting >> Yeah. You're you're suggesting Congress isn't going to do the right thing. So the Supreme Court >> they'd be too slow anyway. The Supreme Court could do it like they put their foot down and say, "Okay, we've already decided, you know, we got enough majority or whatever. Uh we don't want you to do that. Can't let you do that." And even if he goes to some alternate policy, which he says he's got, you know, and all this stuff, fine, good, okay, whatever. But the point is that would at least temporarily help put out the fire that we perceive to be of Europeans dumping our bonds, Europeans dumping our stocks, etc. It won't sustain a turn, but it could create that kind of, oh, fever's over. In which case, if that fever has been driving silver and gold o over the last few days, for example, uh then yeah, it might create a correction. But the question is where? Where do you go before you get that? And I'm of the view that probably you're going to be well past 100 before you even see a correction. You could say, "Oh, there's the midpoint of the time six month span uh where you get a wobble." Uh anyway, it's an important level because people that got calls got to be concerned about that, you know, >> and and so your point is if we do get a correction uh because of the Supreme Court ruling and we get a correction in gold, we get a correction in silver >> and it pulls back, let's just say 20 or 30%, given the moves, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see that kind of a pullback. But that's a buying opportunity. That's where you got to step in again. >> Yeah. No, this bigger reality is not based on the the things we see now that have just occurred. tariff, for example, that only became a market term in 2025. Before that, it wasn't an issue. We still had a bubble stock market well before we ever had tariffs. Okay? You'd had a 15-year bull that took the S&P up 10fold and the NASDAQ up 20fold over a span of decade and a half. Money printing, M2 growth, free money in the Fed funds rate. So, you already had a bubble. So this issue of the tariff coming going type issue is not really the factor. It's the newsy factor right now. But there's bigger issues. Same with the T-bond market. It's not in trouble now just because we have tariffs. It's in trouble because it's in trouble. Jamie Diamond has said that for months. You know, you can't keep playing this game decade by decade. And and and you you've got to face the consequences pretty soon that you've got a spending problem versus the GDP. you know, etc. So, anyway, we're in that and don't run if you've got leverage positions like I do. I have some leverage positions, uh, especially call options or SLV for example, I'm keen to move those over and move more into unleveraged at that point because I the big move is still coming later this year after this jiggle, whenever we get the jiggle. >> That's good to know, Michael. What's your I'm just curious what your time frame in is on those call options. >> Well, I'm in September's now. So, and and I've already been lightening my position and moving more into junior minors because I think right now from the perspective of this coming year, but probably even the come next six months, if there is an asset on the planet that is overly cheap in relation to anything else, including the metals they get out of the ground, it's the gold and silver miners. They are free compared to their historic valuations to an ounce of gold. And when we examine the technicals of let's say you the XAU index which is the gold and silver miners index been around since the 1980s. We plot that history of its relative valuation to gold. We can see a technical breakout level that we're right now challenging that goes back 11 years where that's been confined in this little base at exceptionally cheap relative levels. Dirt cheap. Like between 4 and 8% of the price of gold. Back in the 80s, the '9s, 2000 through 2008, it was on average 25% of the price of an ounce of gold. and we're now rallying to over 8%. That's how cheap it is. And it's got technical wherewithal to explode up out of that base. Meaning suddenly investors say, "Hey, I want to own the miners." And then when we reduce it down to the silver miners versus the gold miners, we see an even more explosive situation. So, as I transition out of leveraged in process, I'm moving more into unleveraged miners because I think that's where the real bang for the buck comes the rest of this year. >> And Michael, just because you're talking about the miners, I should probably remind everybody this Friday, January the 23rd, at 8 a.m. Eastern, we're holding a virtual gold conference. We have some of the best gold mining companies in the world there including Igno, Ken Ross Gold, Oceanana Gold, Hemllo Mining, Oisco Development. And so I would highly suggest you uh check it out. Michael's also going to be speaking there. You can see a link below in the show notes. Once again, that's this Friday, January the 23rd at 8 a.m. Eastern time. So, you talked about uh silver. You think we we're going to see a new reality in terms of price. What about gold? >> Yes. Uh, gold's reality is this. While silver's been capped in this half a century silly range compared to any other asset on the planet practically, uh, gold hasn't. Gold made a high in 1980, then made another in 2011. They were each eightfold gains from bare low to bull high, higher bare low, next bull high. Eight-fold gains from bare low to high. Okay. Our bare low is $1,50 in December 2015. Okay, we're only a little bit more than four-fold right now. If we went to eightfold and quote did it again, in other words, the norm. Okay, have another normal global market like the two we've just had in the past 50 years. You'd be $8,500 gold just to do the norm. And yet, we're in a different world now. Yeah, like the T-bonds, they're not they're in crisis mode. They weren't back in those particular times. Uh we're in a different So, just to go to 8,500. Wow. You you think that's crazy. No, it's not. It's done done it twice before. And yet silver is just now taken out. It's 1980 high and it's 2011 high. It's got a lot of catching up to do. And also on that percentage basis, you know, ounce of silver and ounce of gold, it's it's off the page cheap. And what if silver again not only take out its 50-year highs on price and went nuts and get went to a new reality? Why shouldn't those spreads go up and challenge or me, but take out those highs 6 and a half%. 1980 to 3.1% 2011 we're at 2%. And if gold is 8,000 bucks, only 8,000 bucks, a normal eight-fold move, and silver goes to 3% or goes to 6 and a half, it's off the page, you know. So that's what we're looking at. And it's not going to be incremental arm wrestling. It's going to be sudden. >> Now, you are very concerned about US bonds. What about the US dollar? Because that's also coming under pressure. >> Dollar is u already broken. And our estimate it broke in April last year at no excuse me March of last year at a price of 10421 closing price that month. We put out a major sell signal said the dollar is now in a bear. Price chart wasn't price chart has been laying for the last wow couple quarters on an uptrend that anybody with a crayon and a ruler could go back to like 2008 on the dollar index. Remember, the dollar index doesn't measure the real buying power of the dollar. It measures it versus two other fiats, especially yen and the euro, okay? Euro and yen in that order. They're 70% of the dollar index. So, it's one piece of crap versus a couple of others, but uh so it's not as real buying power, but versus them, it's broken a momentum uptrend. When I use a three-year average oscillator or a 10-year average, there's a momentum trend line that while price is holding that line, or rather this way laying on the line for a couple quarters now, no rally off of that price chart line, just laying there like it's dead, but momentum already broke that comparable structure. Price will break it, too. So, if you see the dollar slip from it's now 98 something, so it's only about six points below where we sit sell it. uh and you see it get down to, you know, much below 95, let's say. Even the price guys are going to say, "Oh gosh, it didn't hold." And I think you'll assault the old lows at 70, which we saw, you know, a couple decades ago. >> Wow. >> But that's just again, that's just that's sort of meaningless because it's like, you know, who cares? It's one piece of paper versus another. They're both degenerating in real value year by year, decade by decade. Uh it's real value. uh is you know I've said this probably in an interview before your granddad built a house for400 your dad built one for 45,000 and now you if you want to build build the median price it's 450,000 there degeneration of the currency >> yes and you rais a very good point I should throw out a few numbers just for the benefit of our viewers when it comes to the money supply you often hear people talk about >> money printing and when you look at the money supply is measured by M2 to in January of 2020 before all of this craziness started. The uh money supply was 15.4 trillion. Now it is well over 22 trillion. That's an increase of 42%. So to your point, it's not like that you bought for a million dollar. >> Get you up near 100% in a decade. Yeah. Yeah. >> Exactly. I mean that's what's happening. Maybe next month. [laughter] >> Maybe next month if the T- bonds don't hold because they're going to pull out those fire hoses like crazy. I mean, mortgages are one thing and defending a bank here and there, that's another. Uh, and even back then in 2009, they didn't quite defend the banks that well. You know, some of them aren't here anymore. But, uh, the T- bonds go, oh, the fire hoses will be very fat. Uh, and >> now, I started this conversation by asking you about the S&P. Um, what are your thoughts? Are you are you concerned about the S&P? Do you think we're going to see or we could see a 20 to 30% drop? No, I think you can see 50% or more, but I think it's it's going to be more layered than a collapse. The we think that since 2025, early in the year, February, I think it made its high last year, so a year ago almost, it was uh just below 6,200 on the S&P. Right now we're trading what? 67 something. Yeah. So, we're up, you know, 10% or so above that high peak of last year. >> [clears throat] >> I think it's been a topping process since then. Our momentum work, forget the price chart. Price chart beta high had a sell-off low back took out the high. So, it's been zigzagged either side of last year's price high. Down then up, now headed back down again. We think that's a topping process on price. While momentum has not made new highs, when price came up and made new highs this year, momentum said, "Uh-uh, I'm not even near the 2025 high." And there's certain levels on price that if you get to on a monthly close during this year, you'll start breaking some of the structures on annual momentum and on quarterly momentum, which are two long-term momentum metrics we look at. They're not far below where you are right now, but I want a monthly close there. But even when you break those, I don't think it's necessarily anything that collapses. Yeah, sure you might shed 10 or 20%, but you know, we do that quite often in the stock market. I'm talking about something allah that October event in 2008 where you drop like 35% in a couple weeks. I don't think that's on the horizon until you get much further down than we are now. U I I won't specify the number. We we do that in our reports, but it's not near where we are now. So we could get some selloff now that could hurt and and cause people to lose all the money they made last year for example. So a whole year wiped out in the first part of 2026 but not precipitous you know the kind that generates the irrational selling of silver and gold miners because the stock market went down. And by the way those people need to wake up a very sharp day in the stock market today and yet they're up three or four%. No. Uh but I don't think that kind of stock market collapse is immediate. I think it could happen later in the year. So that that market I think is not a place to be. I think commodities are in general and commodity stocks including oil by the way. >> Okay. Before we before we jump into oil, I want to first ask you about the these bonds because >> the largest holder of US treasuries in the world is Japan. They own about a trillion [clears throat] dollars worth. China owns $800 billion worth. The UK owns $800 billion worth. I'm kind of wondering, once again, this is all speculation, but right now we got a sell the US trade going on. If these nations, let's just say the European nations start selling US bonds and US stocks, >> we could get one hell of a selloff here. >> Yeah, I guess you could. And I I just I I still think the stock market selloff this time is not going to be have the consequence that it had in 2008 on the miners particularly. Gold also had a bad month that month in October 2008. But remember the stock market had already been dropping a full year from October 2007 to October before it had that crash type event in October 2008. And yet gold and silver have been going up during that time. It wasn't until you got into the summer of 2008 that they started to weaken with the stock market and then even it was very brief. Stock market continued down until March 2009 and gold was back at its highs by early 2009. Okay. And and the Fed had instituted QE in November 2008 right after that crash. So I don't think you see the stock market as being a precipitous problem. The one that is potentially precipitous is the bond market, which is way too big to allow, meaning they're going to have to go ape to prevent that and and do policies that you know even Powell will have to do. Of course, and if he doesn't, [laughter] uh, you know what Trump's going to say? Powell caused all this. Okay, [laughter] it's a neat game anyway. But I'd be watching the T- bonds. The dollar will, I think, yes, will follow. If you slip another several points on the dollar index, it will start to drop. And of course, what does that do to the Europeans who own a lot of US stocks in the last few years? They're not only losing on stock price, but they're losing on their conversion back to the [clears throat] euro. So, that could become an issue as well once that dollar index really does start to to slip on down. Uh, so these factors are in play and I think gold and silver have known it all along. >> All right. You touched on oil. >> Yeah. >> Sounds like you're bullish on oil. Give me your thoughts. >> Not yet, but I'll tell you what I see. >> That oil drop we recently had that took us back into the mid 55 level. Okay. But if you look at oil since that surge that peaked three weeks after the Ukraine Russia war began, it peaked. Okay. So the war didn't take it up. It had already gone up most of the way before that war ever occurred. Since then, oil dropped from 130, collapsed down by 2023 to the $70 range and oscillated between the 60s and the 70s and 80s like dead sideways basically. Nice swings, but really wasn't going anywhere. Last year you had a little panic sell off that got you down in the mid50s 55 area and you had another one a week or so ago where you got down there again. Most fundamental analysts that I hear say nah going to 40 going back to 40. What they don't and that's based on their assessment of oil fundamentals. Okay. What they don't assess is the relative value of oil. A barrel of oil measured against any asset you want to measure against. It's off the page cheap. Yeah. In humankind, we may evolve beyond oil. You know, it be solar or nuclear, whatever, but it's not going to happen right away. And right now, oil at 60 buck level measured against gold. Even I recently heard against silver, it's a record low because silver went up and oil went down. You've got to factor that in when you assess a market that's dirt cheap. You can take all the fundamentals you want and say, "Well, there's so much oil behind technically we have a massive momentum structure that if you get up several points above where you are now, again, this something we specified in our reports and close out a month during this quarter, not far from where you are now, despite all the negative fundamentals, momentum says, I'm coming out of And it would not shock me that when we get our momentum breakout in oil, it will suddenly catch up to the already rising commodity complex. Bloomberg for example was in the 100 levels now 113 115 level. So it's gone up some. Bloomberg commodity index. Oil is the sick one. But it's got a trigger above it. If you get there, it wouldn't shock me if oil went up 50% in a couple quarters like into the 90s. And boy would that upset people, especially Donald Trump, but who's, you know, promised low gas prices. Uh, and also the average guy, because remember, his life is his day-to-day reality. And the one thing he can smile about is gasoline prices are staying low at least. If all of a sudden they jump 50%, that even that goes out the window. And if you also take away his retirement gains of last year in a matter of a couple weeks, he's back to where he was in late 2024 and he's about to retire. Then all of a sudden emotion comes into play and doubt the hands in the air and that's reflected politically and doesn't necessarily favor the Democrat party. It fragments both parties as they are now. You may end up with a three-party system or a four-party system in this country. in this crisis because nobody's sure about what's working. Get the point? Uh, >> okay. Talk about gas prices, Michael. I just filled up for a $14 a liter. >> Yeah. >> I haven't seen it that cheap in years. >> Well, and that gas made a load down near a buck, you know, some months ago, and it shot up to about four, pull back to about three. Natural gas is very volatile over history. It's proven that it doesn't trend nicely. Sometimes it'll explode like we caught that move up to 10 bucks that occurred a couple years ago. Uh and also warned of a drop, but we didn't know it would go back to two bucks or one buck. Uh but it's in a roughly positive trend right now. Irregular nasty zigzags, but it's in a upward grind from what is very historically cheap low levels for natural gas. So it's sort of like crude. The lows we've seen recently in natural gas are just, you know, you go back through history and just look at a price chart. You know, what are you going to do? Go to zero? You know, um, and so, yeah, the energy sector is somewhat of a lagard now to the commodity complex. Back in that 2022 bull 2122 surge, they were a leader. This time they're a lagard within the complex. >> Michael, do you have a view on uranium? >> Yeah. Uh, I'm not real excited about it. We we got bullish on uranium under 20 bucks back in 2017. It went over 100 uh in August a year and a half ago. We said uh it was yeah August two summers ago we said there could be a correction. Watch out. We thought it would go down to about its three-ear average. It did. It held around there based. It's now turned back up. It's in a bull trend, but it's already had a monster move from the depths under 20 to over 100. So, factor that in. Yes, it's in a bull trend and you're probably going to go up and ultimately take out that high, but it's it's probably not going to be dynamic and it's certainly not going to rival the broader commodity complex what we expect to see there and certainly not get anywhere close to what the monetary metals are going to do. So, yeah, positive but sort of ho. So the overarching theme that I'm hearing from you is that you got to sell paper assets and buy hard assets and that could be >> that's a reality that a lot of >> real estate oil. >> Yeah. Uh agricultural real estate would be a good place to look because it's connected to grains and I think the grains will they based I think they will participate on the upside. Uh they priced themselves out. You can almost tell by looking at the price charts even. But our momentum studies of like the Bloomberg versus the S&P. Bloomberg is a well balanced index. It's not overly weighted in energy for example, which so many are. Uh and you look at where it is versus 20 years ago or so. 2008, the Bloomberg Commodity Index, for example, was at 235 or so. Right now, it's 115. We're like half the price where we were in 2008. So, it's even low versus its old highs. when you measure it versus where it was on the S&P then it collapsed in relative value to effectively what you look at in the spread chart is it's free okay you know I think there is an asset class shift already underway where smart money is already saying okay I think this paper asset especially US stock market is probably overdone I'm not going to try to pick the top I'm just going to start moving assets and I'm going to move over into commod commodity related. Yeah, some gold miners and silver miners. I wish I'd done it before. That's what they're saying to themselves. But also grain related, oil related, especially if oil breaks out like we said. Uh oil related stocks, grain related base metal miners, they're real strong now, copper, so forth. Uh, I think there's a a thought process underway and I suspect if this asset class shift does fully get going and I think it's going to in the next few months, you'll start to see evidence. It'll last for years. In other words, it'll been the place to have been this year going forward. Not just a trade, but a major shift in human preference. I want something real. I want to touch it. You know what I mean? Uh, and a sense of ground instead of, you know, what is AI anyway? Okay. >> So, if you've missed out on AI, you can make your money on commodities. >> Yeah. Yeah. I think commodity related stocks, you don't have to buy the commodities themselves. Uh, there's vehicles to do that, but I think the commodity related stocks are a place to be and they do not correlate well with the stock market. So don't be fearful of owning stocks, oil stocks, grain related, base metal related. If the stock market goes down, they do not correlate. They can easily have a bull while it goes down. So they're not part of the package. >> Well, this has been a great discussion, uh, Michael, and I just want to remind our viewers again about a virtual gold conference coming up this Friday, January the 23rd, at 8 a.m. Eastern time. There's a link below in the show notes. And Michael, if someone would like to follow you or read more about your research or find out about your services, where can they go? >> oliversa.com. MSA for momentum structural analysis. Uh, and you find my beautiful picture there and my email address. Click on it and ask me for some samples. Be happy to send some sample reports. >> And I will also include a link below in the show notes. Michael, thank you very much for making uh this time, especially on such short notice with so much going on in the world. >> Thank you, James. See you later. >> Take care. [music] >> [music]